Sunday 11/15/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

https://www.bettorschat.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=10448&d=1604926317

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Dolphins (+6, ML +220) at Cardinals, 34-31
Saints (+3.5, ML +160) at Buccaneers, 38-3
Bills (+3, ML +145) vs. Seahawks, 44-34
Giants (+3, ML +140) at Washington, 23-20

The largest favorites to cover

Packers (-6) at 49ers, 34-17 (TNF)
Titans (-6) vs. Bears, 24-17
Falcons (-4.5) vs. Broncos, 34-27
Vikings (-3) vs. Lions, 34-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South battle was a high-scoring affair in the first half, with the Texans leading 20-16 at halftime. Then, someone twisted the offensive spigot down to a slow drip in the third quarter, and then it was nearly off completely for most of the fourth quarter.

The score was 27-19 thanks to a PK Josh Lambo 30-yard field goal with 1:11 to go in the third quarter, as 'under' (49) bettors were hanging on by a thread. But as the fourth quarter went along, under bettors were starting to feel very good. And those laying the seven with Houston were also feeling increasingly well.

QB Jake Luton was making his first NFL start, and he did a decent enough job. In fact, the Jaguars actually had 22 first downs to 19 for the Texans, and they also edged Houston in rushing yards (115 to 107) and passing yards (297 to 267). Statistically, it was a very, very even game, and the turnover battle was 1-1, too.

The game probably should have finished the way it did, with the Jaguars falling 27-25. However, bettors on the line, as well as the total, saw a late change to the result. Luton had a 13-yard scoring scamper with 90 seconds remaining in regulation, changing the line late from a Texas cover, to a Jaguars cover, and that late score also flipped the total from an under to an over.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New York Giants-Washington Football Team (43) game, the second installment of this rivalry in 2020, went to the visitors by a 23-20 score. The game was on pace for an 'over' result with 23 total points on the board at halftime. After a so-so third quarter, giving us 33 points after 45 minutes, 'over' bettors were still on pace.

Things got crazy in the fourth quarter, as PK Dustin Hopkins opened the scoring just four seconds into the final stanza to slice the lead of the G-Men to 23-13. About four and a half minutes later Washington got the ball back, and backup QB Alex Smith, who entered for the injured QB Kyle Allen, struck for a 68-yard touchdown to WR Terry McLaurin. Not only were Washington moneyline bettors feeling much better about their prospects with just over 10 minutes to go, 'over' bettors were feeling very good, too. Unfortunately for everyone, that's where the scoring ended, and most total bettors had to settle for an unsatisfying push. At least that's how the game closed, so that's what we'll call it. If you bet the 'over' earlier in the week when the total was 41.5, 42 or 42.5, congrats.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board for the Sunday slate were the Baltimore Ravens-Indianapolis Colts (43) game, and the 'over' was never threatened

Well, we did get off to a quick start with a 7-7 score on the board after 15 minutes, but the nerves of 'under' bettors were quelled with just a field goal by PK Rodrigo Blankenship in the second quarter, and a lone RB Gus Edwards touchdown in the third. After 45 minutes we had just 24 total points on the board, and we didn't get our final score, 24-10, until PK Justin Tucker booted a 48-yard field goal with 2:08 to go. If only all wagers could go that easily.

The highest number on the board was the Seattle Seahawks-Buffalo Bills (55) battle, and that game certainly thrilled 'over' bettors and those who indulge in fantasy football, too. It was a end-to-end action with at least 13 total points in every single quarter. The home 'dog Bills fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they seemed to be able to keep the Seahawks at arm's length all day. After exchanging 10's in the second quarter, we had a 24-10 score at halftime, more than halfway to the 'over'. The lowest scoring quarter was the third, with 'just' 13 points, but a flurry of late activity gave us the highest scoring game of the weekend with 78 total points.

In the first two primetime games of Week 9, the over/under went 1-1. A late flurry by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter helped them push the total (48.5) over the finish line, falling 34-17 to the Green Bay Packers. The Sunday night battle between future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Drew Brees saw 31 points on the board by halftime, all on the ledger of the Saints. A scoreless third quarter killed 'over' bettors, and we saw just 10 total points in the fourth. The Monday night battle with the New England Patriots-New York Jets (41) is pending, and featured the lowest line of Week 9.

So far this season the under is 19-9 (67.9%) across 28 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 10

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Colts will be itching to get back onto the field after a disappointing 24-10 loss at home to Baltimore in Week 9. After two straight weeks with three touchdown throws, QB Philip Rivers was blanked and the Colts posted their lowest scoring total of the season. They have had a great time of it over the years against the Titans, especially against the number. Indy is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in Nashville, and 13-4 ATS in the past 17 in this series overall. The road team has covered four of the past five overall. The Titans ended up posting a 24-17 win over the Bears at home in Week 9, just covering a 6.5-point number as the 'under' connected. It was the first under for Tennessee since Week 1, as the 'over' was 5-0-1 in the previous six.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers will be an angry bunch after getting manhandled by the rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football, in their home building no less, 38-3. The team's previous offensive low was 19 points, a one-point loss in Chicago. They'll look to bounce back against Carolina just like the last time they were dropped by the Saints. In Week 1, Tampa lost 34-23 at NOLA, before rebounding against the Panthers 31-17 at home as 7.5-point favorites. The Panthers lost its fourth straight game in Kansas City on Sunday, 33-31, but they covered a 10-point number. They also welcomed back RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle) for the first time since he was injured in Week 2 against, yep, Tampa. While Carolina is on an 0-4 SU run, they are 2-2 ATS during the span, and all four losses are one-score games. In fact, seven of Carolina's nine results are one-score games, with the Panthers going 2-5 SU.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
The Broncos were bounced in Atlanta, falling 34-27 to the Falcons. A late 21-point flurry for the Broncos helped push the total 'over', and they nearly came all the way back to cover. Denver hasn't lost consecutive games since opening 0-3 SU. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for QB Drew Lock and the Broncos, and they're averaging 29.0 PPG across the past two. The Raiders won 31-26 on the road against the Chargers, and they have won and covered in back-to-back games for the first time since Week 1-2. They also posted an 'over' result after their first 'under' of 2020, and the over is now 6-1-1 overall. The Raiders will hope they brought the dominance over the Broncos with them to Vegas. The silver and black are 4-0 ATS in the past four home games against the Broncos, and 5-0 ATS In the previous five meetings overall. The home team is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight in this series, with the 'under' hitting in each of the past seven meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook ran roughshod over the Lions in Week 9, rolling up his first 200-yard game in the NFL. It helped Minnesota win in back-to-back game for the first time this season, and they improved to 5-1 ATS across the past six. The 'over' is also 3-0 in a season high three in a row, while going 5-1 in the past six overall. The Bears offense was flat again, falling 24-17 in Nashville against the Titans. After opening the season 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS, the Bears have dropped three in a row while going just 1-2 ATS. They're averaging a dismal 16.7 PPG in the three games, too, while allowing 24.7 PPG. The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for Chicago, too. We'll see if QB Kirk Cousins can finally get over the hump on Monday Night Football. He enters this one with an 0-9 record on Mondays posting 11 touchdowns and six interceptions in those games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL odds Week 10: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals beat Seattle in Week 7, had a Week 8 bye, then got upset at home by Miami. The SuperBook opened Arizona -1.5 against Buffalo and quickly moved to -1 Sunday evening.

NFL Week 9 is all but wrapped up, with NFL Week 10 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. Among the noteworthy games, the Buffalo Bills visit the Arizona Cardinals, and the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams meet in an NFC West clash.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 10 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

Teams on bye: Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets

Colts at Titans Odds
Opening line
Titans -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee looks to put a little daylight between itself and Indianapolis in this AFC South clash Thursday night. The SuperBook opened the Titans -2 and got to -2.5 in short order.

"Philip Rivers was awful today, but we don't want to overreact too much," Murray said Sunday night, alluding to the Colts QB's lousy performance in a 24-10 home loss to Baltimore. "The Colts really should've been up by more at halftime in that game, and we still trust their defense. I'll never understand what the officials saw on that Marcus Peters interception. That was a real turning point in the game."

Bengals at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh overcame a couple of scares Sunday, one from Dallas and one from star QB Ben Roethlisberger's knee, to get a 24-19 victory over the upstart and undermanned Cowboys. So the Steelers remain the league's only unbeaten team, at 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS). The SuperBook opened Pittsburgh -9.5 and stuck there through Sunday night. Cincinnati is coming off its bye week.

Washington at Lions Odds
Opening line

OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford was in concussion protocol after Sunday's 34-20 loss at Minnesota, prompting The SuperBook to keep this game off the board until there's more clarity on the situation. Washington has its own QB issues after Kyle Allen suffered a dislocated ankle in Sunday's 23-20 loss to the New York Giants, putting Alex Smith back under center.

Texans at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Houston eked out a win at Jacksonville in Week 9, while Cleveland had a bye. The SuperBook opened the Browns -1.5 and moved to -2.5 within an hour.

"The Browns have to win games like this if they want to make the playoffs," Murray said. "Baker Mayfield went into COVID protocol today. That's something to monitor, but we expect him to play Sunday. We think Houston is much better than their 2-6 record, and this line shows it."

Jaguars at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -13.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay is on a mini-bye, having played and rolled in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, a 34-17 victory at San Francisco. Jacksonville, meanwhile, fell just short at home to Houston, 27-25. The Packers opened -13.5 at The SuperBook, and the line was stable Sunday night.

Eagles at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York held on for a 23-20 win at Washington on Sunday, while Philadelphia had a Week 9 bye in the dreadful NFC East. The Eagles opened as 3-point road favorites at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday.

Buccaneers at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay got smacked by New Orleans 38-3 in the Sunday nighter. Meanwhile, Carolina gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City all it could handle, though the Panthers fell just short 33-31. The SuperBook opened the Bucs -4.5, and per standard operating procedure, pulled this game off the board during the Saints-Bucs contest. The game will go back up Monday morning, perhaps at a slightly lower number after Tampa's dismal performance.

Broncos at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas held on for a 31-26 win at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, while Denver lost to Atlanta 34-27. This line stuck at Raiders -4 through Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bills at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Buffalo got a statement win over Seattle on Sunday, 44-34 at home. Arizona was dealt a surprising 34-31 home loss by Tua Tagovailoa and Miami. So it was no surprise that the first move on this line was toward the Bills.

"We moved quickly to -1," Murray said. "This is a very interesting game. The Cardinals are off a loss, and the Bills are coming off their best win of the season and the best game of Josh Allen's career. It's very much a toss-up game, and the line shows it. There should be good two-way write."

Seahawks at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
While Seattle suffered the aforementioned loss at Buffalo, Los Angeles was on a bye week. The Rams are short home favorites in this NFC West clash.

"We opened Rams -1.5 and are now -2," Murray said. "The Seahawks' defense stinks, and today, Russell Wilson finally into a game (in which) he couldn't bail out the defense. I don't trust that Seattle D at all, but I also don't trust Jared Goff. I do think the public will trust Russ to bounce back here."

49ers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans boatraced Tampa Bay 38-3 under the prime-time lights Sunday night. San Francisco had no such luck in the Thursday nighter, with its depleted squad falling to Green Bay 34-17. The defending NFC champion Niners will still be minus QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and tight end George Kittle (foot) for a few weeks, and they've got a host of other injuries. The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5, and the game came off the board once New Orleans kicked off at Tampa.

"That line will go up after tonight," Murray assured. "The 49ers have a ton of guys out, and the Saints will be a hot team after what they did to Brady and the Bucs. The Saints will be in just about every moneyline parlay and teaser next week. We will be 49ers fans again next weekend."

Ravens at Pats Odds
Opening line
Patriots +7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This would normally be a matchup of top-shelf teams working their way into playoff form, under the Sunday night lights. However, New England is just 2-5 SU heading into the Week 9 Monday nighter at the New York Jets. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 6-2 SU and coming off a solid win at Indianapolis.

"The Ravens opened -7, and we moved quickly to -6.5. This is a funny line to see when the Ravens are at New England," Murray said. "I'm very curious to watch Lamar Jackson go against Bill Belichick. It seems like a lot of defensive coaches have learned and made adjustments against Jackson. And nobody is better at game-planning than Belichick. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

"I'm sure we will need New England huge, given the top slot on Sunday night, so you'll probably see this line at 7 again."

Vikings at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Three weeks ago, Chicago was 5-1 SU and seemingly in good form. Now the Bears are 5-4 SU and on a three-game skid, while Minnesota won its last two, a road upset of Green Bay and Sunday's 34-20 home win over Detroit. So even though Minnesota is just 3-5 SU and Chicago is at home, the Bears are catching 2.5 points at The SuperBook for the Week 10 Monday night tilt.

"We just looked at who we think people will be looking to bet, after what they've seen the last two weeks," Murray said. There was no disagreement with the line Sunday night, as it did not move.

Chargers at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tua Tagovailoa and Miami got a surprising 34-31 victory at Arizona on Sunday, while Los Angeles took another kick in the gut in a one-score game, losing to Las Vegas 31-26. The SuperBook opened the Dolphins -1 and moved to -2.5 within an hour Sunday night, with Murray saying that was more a move with the market.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL betting tips for Week 10: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Titans opened as 2.5-point home favorites versus the Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and won't be under the key number of a field goal long.

You know you’re into the nitty gritty of the NFL betting schedule when you hit double figures. And here we are, at Week 10.

This is the time of the year when teams start scoreboard watching, with a close eye fixed on the standings and their potential playoff hopes. But for NFL bettors, we’re always focused on the spreads and totals and how they shift from Sunday night to Sunday afternoon.

The most lucrative NFL betting strategy remains getting the best of the number, and we share our NFL betting tips on the lines to bet now and ones to bet later. Good luck.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Bet Now

Don’t get caught on your back like a turtle – or Philip Rivers – when it comes to the spread for Thursday Night Football. Tennessee opened -2.5 for this mid-week primetime contest and will likely move to -3 quite quickly.

The Titans out-muscled Chicago in Week 9, winning 24-17 and just holding off the Bears enough to cover the 6.5-points at home (Chicago scored 17 points in the fourth quarter). It wasn’t a pretty win, but it snapped a two-game slide for Tennessee and the Titans get to stay home for this short week.

The Colts, on the other hand, couldn’t keep pace with Baltimore for four quarters. After battling the Ravens to a 10-7 lead at the half, Indianapolis caved like the rotting Jack-o-Lantern on your neighbor’s porch, getting outscored 17-0 in the final 30 minutes. It marked the third time in the past four games that the Colts failed to cover the spread.

If you’re all about that Honky Tonk in Nashville Thursday night, take the Titans -2.5 now.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5): Bet Later

This line is actually moving away from the undefeated Steelers after opening as high as -10 for this AFC North rivalry. A near loss to the Cowboys (and whoever their QB was) as 14-point chalk will do that.

Pittsburgh didn’t look great in that 24-19 squeaker, but it was the team’s third straight road game and a textbook letdown spot after the win over Baltimore in Week 8. The Steelers are back in Heinz Field for the first time in almost a month, but Ben Roethlisberger’s tender knee could make him a no-show for practice and keep this spread under the key number of -10 (although he told the media he was fine).

The Bengals also bring a lot of heat into this match. Cincinnati enjoyed a bye in Week 9 and was last seen upsetting the Titans in Week 8. Joe Burrow is blossoming under center and taking Bengals backers along for the ride, with Cincy sitting 6-2 against the spread.

Given all that, shops have jumped from Steelers -10 to -9.5 and are dealing extra vig on the underdog Bengals +9.5 (-115). That could mean a drop to Pittsburgh -9. For those who always carry an extra Terrible Towel in the glovebox, wait it out and see how low the Steelers will go.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (Over 50): Bet Now

It’s a showdown between rookie quarterbacks, with Justin Herbert and the Bolts visiting Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. The Over/Under opened as low as 49.5 and has crept to 50 points with early money siding with a shootout in South Beach.

Herbert and the Chargers were oh-so-close to a Week 9 win but this total is more about the L.A. defense – or lack thereof – which has allowed each of its last five opponents to break the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard, topping the total in all five of those contests since Week 4.

Miami’s offensive attack hasn’t slowed much since Tua usurped the starting gig from Ryan Fitzpatrick, including getting 27 points in the 34-31 win over Arizona on Sunday (the Dolphins opened the game with a scoop-and-score). The Miami defense is a dangerous crew and very disruptive but has given up big scores against quality opponents.

The bad weather in Florida is supposed to pass by the weekend, so if you’re lining up for these Young Guns like Emilio Estevez, Kiefer Sutherland, Lou Diamond Phillips, Charlie Sheen, and Dermot Mulroney (I mean, what a cast!), get down on the Over 50 now.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 50.5): Bet Later

This AFC West showdown in Sin City opened with a total as high as 51 points but is trickling down with action on the Under out of the gate. And who could blame them? The Broncos and Raiders have played Under in seven straight head-to-head matchups, going back to 2017. Contrarian bettors: ACTIVATE!

The Raiders are an Over bettors wet dream, with an offense putting up 27 points per game and a defense giving up one point more. The Silver and Black have kept Over backers in the black, with a 6-1-1 O/U mark heading into Week 10.

The Broncos have started to show some teeth on offense in recent games. Denver has posted scores of 27 and 31 points in the past two weeks and it looks like Drew Lock is settling in since returning from injury. The Broncos defense, however, is slipping with a total of 107 points allowed in the past three games.

If you’re bucking this divisional totals trend, crack a Coors and wait to see how low the number will go before buying up the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

121INDIANAPOLIS -122 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

251CINCINNATI -252 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 73-39 ATS (30.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.

253WASHINGTON -254 DETROIT
WASHINGTON is 19-4 ATS (14.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

255HOUSTON -256 CLEVELAND
HOUSTON is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

257JACKSONVILLE -258 GREEN BAY
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after the first month of the season in the last 3 seasons.

259PHILADELPHIA -260 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a home dog of <=7 in the last 2 seasons.

261TAMPA BAY -262 CAROLINA
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

265DENVER -266 LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS are 15-45 ATS (-34.5 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.

267BUFFALO -268 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.

269SEATTLE -270 LA RAMS
Sean McVay is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs (Coach of LA RAMS)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Sunday, November 15

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CINCINNATI (2 - 5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 0) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 112-81 ATS (+22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 99-72 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 6) at DETROIT (3 - 5) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-190 ATS (-59.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 6) at CLEVELAND (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) at GREEN BAY (6 - 2) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 203-148 ATS (+40.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (2 - 7) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 6) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 5) at LAS VEGAS (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 44-85 ATS (-49.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (7 - 2) at ARIZONA (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (6 - 2) at LA RAMS (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 2) - 11/15/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (6 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 5) - 11/15/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 89-51 ATS (+32.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 210-155 ATS (+39.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-93 ATS (+30.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-94 ATS (+26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (2 - 6) at MIAMI (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-97 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-97 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 104-76 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 16

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MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 4) - 11/16/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-85 ATS (-36.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 10


Bengals (2-5-1) @ Pittsburgh (8-0)
— Bengals lost three of last four games, but covered last three.
— Cincinnati is 6-1-1 ATS overall this season.
— Bengals are 0-3-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4 points.
— Cincy is 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Bengals are 1-5 ATS in last six post-bye games.

— Roethlisberger (COVID list) won’t practice this week, may not play.
— Rudolph (5-3 as a starter) would likely get the nod if Big Ben sits out.
— Steelers won first eight games (6-2 ATS), scoring 29.4 ppg.
— Steelers are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this year, winning by 5-7-9-31 points.
— Pittsburgh won its last three games, by 3-4-5 points.

— Pittsburgh won last ten series games, four of last five by 7 or fewer points.
— Bengals lost last four visits to Steel City, by 8-15-3-24 points.

Washington (2-6) @ Detroit (3-5)
— Washington is starting its third QB (Alex Smith) in nine games this year.
— Smith is 94-66-1 as an NFL starter; he threw for 325 yards in LW’s 23-20 loss.
— Washington lost six of its last seven games, losing twice to the Giants by total of 4 points.
— Washington is 0-3 SU on road, losing by 1-14-15 points.
— Last 4+ years, Washington is 16-12-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-2 TY.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.

— Detroit lost its last two games, giving up 41-34 points.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their five losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
— Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
— Detroit was outrushed 394-158 in its last two games.
— All three Lion home games went over the total.

— Lions lost 16-14 at Washington LY, their first loss in last five series games.

Texans (2-6) @ Cleveland (5-3)
— Texans split their last two games; both wins were vs Jacksonville.
— Houston allowed 28+ points in all their losses- they allowed 14-25 points in wins.
— Texans are 1-3 SU on the road, giving up 32.3 ppg.
— Over is 3-0-1 in Houston’s road games this season.
— Texans are 0-3 ATS as a road underdog this year.

— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 37.2 ppg in wins
— Browns were outscored in second half in six of their eight games.
— Cleveland is 5-4-1 ATS in its last ten games as a home favorite.
— Five of their last seven games went over the total.
— Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven post-bye games.

— Houston won last five series games, all by 10+ points.
— Texans won 16-6/23-7 in their last two visits to Cleveland.

Jaguars (1-7) @ Green Bay (5-2)
— 6th-round rookie QB Jake Luton (Oregon State) gets his 2nd start; he threw for 304 yards in last week’s 27-25 loss.
— Jaguars lost last seven games, are 1-5 ATS in last six.
— Jacksonville gave up 32.3 ppg in their last six games.
— Jaguars are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South underdogs are 2-7 ATS outside the division.

— Green Bay split its last four games, after a 4-0 start.
— Packers scored 30+ points in their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 48-97 third down plays (49.5%)
— Packers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Four of last five Green Bay games stayed under the total.

— Green Bay won four of six series games.
— Jaguars split two visits here, with last one in 2012.

Philadelphia (3-4-1) @ NJ Giants (2-7)
— This is Philly’s first road game since October 11.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-4-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered six of their eight games this season.
— Eagles are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 152.8 rushing yards/game.
— Eagles are 2-6 ATS in last eight post-bye games.
— Four of last six Philly games stayed under the total.

— Giants are 2-0 SU vs Washington, 0-7 vs everyone else.
— Giants covered five of their last six games.
— Giants’ last five games were decided by total of 10 points.
— Big Blue lost three of four home games, losing by 10-27-2 points.
— Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
— NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 12-2 ATS.

— Giants (+5) lost 22-21 in Philly three weeks ago, despite running ball for 160 yards.
— Eagles won last seven series games.
— Eagles won last three visits here, by 5-21-17 points.
— Philly scored 34+ points in six of last seven visits here.

Tampa Bay (6-3) @ Carolina (3-6)
— Tampa Bay won six of its last eight games, but lost 38-3 LW
— Bucs are 3-2 SU on road, winning by 18-25-2 points.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Last two games, Bucs were outscored 45-6 in first half.
— Last week, Tampa ran ball five times the whole game, for 8 yards.

— Carolina lost its last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
— Panthers lost three of their four home games SU this year.
— Carolina covered five of its last seven games overall.
— Panthers are 1-3-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
— Carolina is 0-6 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

— Panthers (+8.5) lost 31-17 at Tampa in Week 2; they turned ball over four times.
— Carolina won 10 of last 15 series games; teams split last four meetings here.

Broncos (3-5) @ Las Vegas (5-3)
— Denver won three of last five games, after an 0-3 start.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in six of their last seven games.
— Denver covered three of its four road games this year.
— Broncos are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.

— Raiders scored 31+ points in four of five wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas allowed 400+ TY in five of its last seven games.
— Raiders converted 13 of last 24 third down plays.
— Seven of eight Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 4-5 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Las Vegas is 2-0 ATS as a favorite TY; both those games were on road.

— Home side won last eight series games.
— Broncos lost their last four visits to Oakland, by 10-6-13-8 points.

Buffalo (7-2) @ Arizona (5-3)
— Buffalo won its last three games, scoring 28.7 ppg.
— Bills won three of four road games, scoring 23.8 ppg (29.4 ppg at home)
— Bills scored 24+ points in six of their seven wins; 16-17 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 4-2-1 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog, 0-0 TY.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.

— Arizona scored 30+ points in last four games, winning three of them.
— Cardinals split four home games TY; their last three home games were all decided by 3 points.
— Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Cardinals are running ball for 162.9 yards/game this season.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in five of its eight games.

— Buffalo won five of last six series games.
— Bills won two of three visits here, winning 19-16 in OT in last visit, in ’12.

Seahawks (6-2) @ Rams (5-3)
— Seattle lost two of last three games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks have scored 36 TD’s on 85 drives this season.
— Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.
— Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of eight games; they scored 34 in both their losses.
— Seven of their eight games went over the total.
— Seahawks allowed 415 TY in seven of their eight games.

— Rams lost two of last three games, after a 4-1 start.
— LA has outscored opponents 100-32 in second half of games.
— Rams won all three home games, giving up 17-9-10 points.
— LA’s last five games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 12-10-1 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— LA is 9-2-1 ATS in its last dozen post-bye games.

— Rams won four of last five series games.
— Seattle lost 36-31/28-12 in their last two games in the Coliseum.

49ers (4-5) @ New Orleans (6-2)
— Mullens gets another start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37-34 in their losses.
— 49ers won three of their four road games SU.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— 49ers are 13-9 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.

— New Orleans won its last five games, by 6-3-3-3-35 points.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23-3 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans won three of four home games, winning by 11-3-3 points.
— Saints are 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite.
— Seven of their eight games went over the total.

— 49ers won four of last six series games; average total in last three was 69.7.
— 49ers won three of last four visits to Bourbon Street; they won 48-46 here LY.

LA Chargers (2-6) @ Miami (5-3)
— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-15 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost six of last seven games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Last five Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 9-7-2 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 1-0-1 TY.
— In last four games, LA scored 15 TD’s on 47 drives; the rookie QB is good.
— Last two games, LA was outscored 45-25 in the second half.

— Dolphins won/covered their last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
— Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of all four of those games.
— Miami was outgained 913-457 in its last two games.
— Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in four of five wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami split its four home games, winning last two, by 24-11 points.
— Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.

— Dolphins won four of last six series games.
— Chargers won 30-10 in Miami LY, ending an 8-game skid in south Florida- their last win before than was in the 1981 playoffs.

Ravens (6-2) @ New England (3-5)
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28 in losses.
— Baltimore is 4-0 SU on the road, winning by 17-14-2-14 points.
— Under is 5-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— Baltimore opponents converted only 11 of last 49 third down plays.
— Ravens are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.

— New England lost three of its last four games; they were outscored 62-22 in first half.
— Patriots allowed 28 ppg in their last three games.
— New England trailed at halftime in its last five games.
— Last 12+ years, Patriots are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Three of their last four home games stayed under the total.

— Patriots are 6-4 in last ten series games.
— Average total in last four series games: 54.3.
— Ravens lost four of last five visits here, but haven’t been in Foxboro since 2016.

Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago (5-4)
— Vikings are 2-0 since their bye, running ball for 173-275 yards.
— Minnesota covered five of its last six games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Minnesota split its four road games SU this season.

— Bears lost their last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Bears are 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog, 2-1 TY.
— Chicago split its four home games SU this season.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

— Bears won last four series games.
— Vikings lost 25-20/16-6 in their last two visits to Chicago.
— Minnesota scored 11.7 ppg in last three series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 10

Trend Report

Sunday, November 15

Jacksonville @ Green Bay
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games
Green Bay
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Green Bay is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

Washington @ Detroit
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington

Houston @ Cleveland
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA Chargers @ Miami
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 16 games when playing LA Chargers

Denver @ Las Vegas
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Denver

Buffalo @ Arizona
Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Arizona is 5-14-1 SU in its last 20 games at home

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Seattle @ LA Rams
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

San Francisco @ New Orleans
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
San Francisco is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games

Baltimore @ New England
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home


Monday, November 16

Minnesota @ Chicago
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago
Chicago is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 10
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 10 Betting Angles

The weeks just keep rolling by in this NFL season and it was a break even week for that pre-TNF (Thursday Night Football) run that remains at the status quo.

Baltimore was the side to cash against the Colts, but Tennessee nearly let the Chicago Bears through the back door when all was said and done.

With Arizona and Seattle on deck for next week's TNF game, keeping the fade alive is an interesting proposition.

Both of them are lined on either side of tight pick'em-like games, and for one to cash it would mean that the Buffalo Bills beat both of them in consecutive weeks.

A 13-4 straight up run for road teams in non-conference tilts didn't perform well with Denver, Seattle, Chicago, and Pittsburgh the four losses in a 2-4 week for that previous run.

Going back to that in Week 10 would lead you to Buffalo yet again - at Arizona – as well as the Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay, and you know the oddsmakers will be hoping the Jags show up.

The high scoring in those non-conference games did continue though, as a 4-2 O/U record against the closing number could have been 5-1 O/U if you got the 'over' in Pittsburgh/Dallas mid-week.

The average points in those six games clocked in at 58.66 bumping that average up yet still. Seeing points in any Arizona or Seattle game is the norm, so who wants to pull the trigger on a Buffalo-Over parlay?

It's not all good news for the Bills on a larger scale though.

Who's Hot and Not

Only 8 of the 32 NFL teams have a losing ATS record when coming off a loss

Only 11 of the 32 NFL teams have a winning ATS record when coming off a win

The specifics of which teams land in either category always have a place, but in the general sense, this suggests that starting with games where you are looking to back a team off a loss versus a team off a win isn't the worst option in the world.

Week 10 starts with one of those games as the Colts (off a loss) visit Tennessee (off a win) in a divisional game that will go a long way in deciding that division.

But it was the curiosity about the Bills/Cardinals game that brought me here to begin with, as Buffalo was starting to look too good to be true.

It will be interesting to see just how interested the market ends up in that game as it's one that has the potential to generate plenty of action or really not much at all. But with the Cardinals needing to rebound off that home loss as chalk before a return match with Seattle next Thursday, do the Bills get burnt by reading too many headlines before their bye week?

This line of thought is also good news for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, who you know will be needed to at least put an outright scare in the Packers for teasers at least. They lost to Houston in a failed comeback, while Green Bay got to beat a San Francisco team that had half their unit still wearing name tags on their helmets.

Who Could You Follow in Week 10?

Colts
Cardinals
Jaguars
Browns
Broncos
Chargers
49ers
Bears

Other plays that would fit this off loss vs off win scenario include Cleveland (-3) vs Houston, Denver (+5) @ Las Vegas, the LA Chargers (+2.5) @ Miami, San Francisco (+10) vs New Orleans, and the Chicago Bears (+2.5) vs Minnesota.

You've really got to spend time doing your homework on some of those games to want to confidently get behind some of those teams, but there is also time to wait as well because it's not likely many of those spreads are going to move too far in the favor of those suggested options.

There are a couple of specific notes to make as well with a few of those games.

For example, Minnesota is one of those 11 teams to have a winning ATS mark off a victory, as they are now 2-0 ATS in that role and covering the number by 8.2 points in those games.

The Miami Dolphins are another one of those 11 teams at 3-1 ATS off a win, with a margin that's actually better than the Vikings at +8.5.

With the Chargers ability to continually find new ways to come up short, taking as many points as you can with them is always going to be the best way to go, and with how the Dolphins grade out in traditional methods on defense especially, Miami's support is always going to be just fine there.

And then there is the 49ers, who've had a few extra days to get those initial greetings out of the way, catching the Saints between division games.

New Orleans couldn't have played much better in that high profile game against Tampa, and a home date against the rallying Falcons next week isn't the best spot to be in by any means.

Flat spot or not, how comfortable can you be holding any 49ers ticket?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Nov. 12 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.


Sunday, Nov. 15

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
The Joe Burrow led Bengals are a solid 6-1-1 vs. line this season.
Cincy is 5-1-1 as underdog too.
Pitt, however, is 6-2 vs. line (and 8-0 SU).
Steelers lean “over” 18-9-1 last 28 with Big Ben at QB (excludes almost all of 2019)
Though “unders” are 6-1-1 last 8 in series.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at DETROIT
Wash 0-2-1 vs. line away this season
If Lions chalk note their 1-4 mark last five for head coach Matt Patricia.
Detroit “over” 9-1 last ten at Ford Field.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at CLEVELAND
Rough go for Texans, 1-7 SU and vs. line in 2020
4-12-1 vs. spread since mid-2019 for Houston
Coach Romeo 2-2 SU and 1-3 vs. line.
Houston also no covers last 7 as an underdog.
Browns on 3-8 spread skid since late 2019 (a bit better 3-5 this season)
Cleveland “over” 5-2 last seven as host.

Tech Edge: Slight to Browns and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

JACKSONVILLE at GREEN BAY
Jags had dropped five in a row vs. number and four straight as dog prior to late cover last week vs. Texans.
Jacksonville still only 5-11 last 16 on board vs. line.
Pack 6-2 SU and vs. spread after Niners win.
For what it’s worth only 1-4 as DD chalk since 2015.

Tech Edge: Packers, based on recent trends.

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS
G-Men rather remarkably 5-0-1 vs. line last six.
And 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight in 2020.
Despite only 2-7 SU mark entering this matchup.
Birds are 1-4 last five as favorites.
Road team has covered last five in series and six of last seven meetings.

Tech Edge: Giants, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA
Road team 7-2 vs. line in Panthers games this season.
Carolina 1-3 vs. line at home in 2020
Panthers are 1-6-1 vs. spread last 8 as host.
Bucs 2-2 as road chalk this year.
Even with SNF "under" vs. Saints, now 17-8 “over” for Arians since LY.
Arians teams “over” 32-16 since mid 2016 with Cards.

Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

DENVER at LAS VEGAS
Raiders have covered last five in series, also four straight as series host.
The “unders” have cashed last seven meetings.
Though Vegas “over” 6-1-1 in 2020, and Broncos “over” last three.
Broncos' coach Vic Fangio 5-3 as 'dog this season, 10-5 last 15 in role.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Slight to Raiders, based on “totals” and series trends.

BUFFALO at ARIZONA
Bills broke 4-game spread losing streak with win over Seahawks last week.
Cards meanwhile 5-3 vs. spread in 2020.
Coach Kliff Kingsbury now 15-8-1 vs. line with Cards since last year, even after Week 9 loss.
Big Red Cards also on 8-4-1 “under” run.

Tech Edge: Cards and Slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at L.A. RAMS
Rams covered both last year and have won 4 of last 5 SU in series.
LA 2-4 last six vs. line in 2020, also “under” five straight.
Seahawks 8-5-1 vs. points last 14 away.

Tech Edge: Slight to Seahawks and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS
Hurtin’ Niners have now dropped last two SU and vs. line after GB loss.
But SF is 3-1 vs. line as visitor in 2020, 9-3 vs. spread as visitor since 2019.
That record for 49ers, includes wild 48-46 win at Superdome last Dec. 8.
Though a winner vs. Bucs on SNF, Saints no covers 5 of last 7, and also 2-7 last 9 vs. spread at Superdome.
New Orleans “over” 7-1 this season.

Tech Edge: Niners and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
Ravens have cooled a bit vs. line, only 2-3-1 last six in 2020 after 9-1 previous 10 vs. spread in regular season.
Though did handle Indy last week.
After Monday vs. Jets, Belichick 3-5 SU and vs. line this year.
Pats are 1-2 as 'dog but could easily have covered the games at Seattle and Kansas City.
This comes after 13-3 spread mark for NE as a 'dog since 2010 entering this season.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on Belichick extended dog marks.

L.A. CHARGERS at MIAMI
Miami has won and covered last 4 in 2020 and 6-1 last seven vs. line.
Going back to early 2019, Miami 15-5 ATS last 20 on board.
Note hard-luck Chargers on 5-0 “over” run, and 9-4 “over” last 13 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


Monday, Nov. 16

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO
Vikings have covered 5 of last 6 this season despite 3-5 SU mark.
Minnesota has covered last four games as a underdog.
Bears have lost last three games, all non-divisional matchups.

Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
Micah Roberts

Sharps on the Rookie

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-2 ATS) at the undefeated 8-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2 ATS) have been a popular play this week.

At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as a few bettors took the opener of +9.5, +8, +8.5, and +8 (some quick air moves), and that was all in one day on Monday with Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s status for Sunday uncertain.

The Steelers have been off the board much of the week and sit at -7.5. It’s their first meeting against rookie QB Joe Burrow.

Chris Andrews at the South Point said they got immediate sharp action on the Bengals before taking it off the board.

The lean could be viewed as a bit surprising, considering the Steelers average score this season is 32-19.

Uncertainty Abound

Washington (4-4 ATS) will visit Detroit (3-5 ATS), who hasfailed to cover all three home games at Ford Field this season. However, Washington has lost its last five road games outside of D.C.

Lions QB Matt Stafford is still in concussion protocol and a line hasn’t been offered at most bet shops, but no one is banging on the counter demanding a number, either.

Weather will be a key story with the Texans (1-7 ATS) at Browns (3-5 ATS), although Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield hasn’t broken COVID-19 protocol yet after coming in contact with someone who had it. He’s expected to play.

The Texans are 0-4 ATS on the road and their only wins this season have come against the Jaguars, twice (1-1 ATS). It’s part of the reason why the Browns went from -1.5 all the way up to -3.5 at the SuperBook.

Rain is expected early on Sunday but the winds at 31 mph will pose a problem with both QBs.

Jaguars (3-5 ATS) money showed up at +14 early in the week for their game at the Packers (6-2 ATS), and after a brief stint at -13, Green Bay is a solid -13.5.

Jacksonville has lost its last seven games since upsetting the Colts in Week 1. William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich says the Packers are their top public play of the week.

The South Point’s Chris Andrews said they had respected money played on the Jaguars.

Divisional Games to Watch

The Eagles (3-5 ATS) opened -3 at the Giants (6-3 ATS) and have been bet up to -3 -120, and -3.5 as of Friday at the SuperBook. The Giants have covered their last three games, one of which was a 22-21 loss at Philly three weeks ago. The road team has covered the last five meetings in this NFC East series.

The Buccaneers (4-5 ATS) hope to regroup at Carolina (5-4 ATS). The Panthers have lost four straight while the Buccaneers got a rude NFC South awakening last week in a 38-3 home loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football.

The number has been all over the place crisscrossing through the dead numbers of 5, and 5.5. The Buccaneers opened -4.5 and were at -5.5 for most of the week until being bumped up to -6 on Thursday. The Bucs are a public play, but not among the leaders. Joe Public thinks the Bucs stink after last week’s performance.

The Broncos (5-3 ATS) have become a popular sharp play at the South Point and William Hill in their first visit to Las Vegas (5-3 ATS).

The number opened Raiders -4, went up to -5, and has come back down to -4. The Raiders have won and covered their last two games and they’ve gone over the total in seven of eight games.

However, the last seven meetings have stayed under and the Raiders have covered the last five hook-ups with Denver. In the Broncos last six losses, they’ve covered the spread in the next game five times. The public has been betting the Raiders heavy in parlays at the South Point.

Key Late Game Action

Bills at Cardinals

There should be no shortage of points when Buffalo (4-5 ATS) plays at Arizona (5-3 ATS). The Cardinals No. 1 offense (422 YPG) averages a 30-27 score this season.

The Bills have gone 'over' the total in their last seven games following a win while the Cardinals have stayed 'under' in six of eight games giving you lots to think about with the highest total of the week set at 56.5.

The Cards opened -1.5 and have been bet up -2.5. William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich says the Cardinals have been one of their more popular sharp plays this week.

Seahawks at L.A. Rams

The Seattle (5-3 ATS) at L.A. Rams (4-4 ATS) number has stayed at Rams -1.5 most of the week. Meanwhile the total is hovering between 54 and 55 points despite knowing that the Rams have stayed 'under' the total in their last five games.

The Seahawks average 2020 score is 34-32 and has the worst defense in the NFL.

The underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had four turnovers last week at Buffalo and three weeks ago he had three interceptions at Arizona, both losses for the 'Hawks.

Suddenly the talk of getting an MVP vote has quieted.

49ers at Saints

This is one of the top public sides of the week: San Francisco (4-5 ATS) at New Orleans (3-5 ATS).

The point-spread has gone from Saints -8.5 to -9.5 and the public doesn’t seem to care what the spread is, they love the Saints at William Hill and the South Point.

It’s the “what we saw last test.”

The Saints have won their last five games and have gone 'over' the total in seven of their eight games with the one 'under' being last week at Tampa Bay in a 38-3 win.

The Saints do enter this game with the third-ranked defense allowing only 311 yards per game.

Ravens at Patriots

Bettors are having no problem laying points on the road with Baltimore (4-4) -7 at New England (3-5 ATS).

“The Ravens, one-way traffic that big and small punters have both been backing consistently,” said BetMGM VP Jason Scott.

The Ravens are their biggest public risk of the week at just about every book, but the spread hasn’t moved which shows you have little the bookmakers respect the public’s opinion.

Ravens average a 28-17 score this season and the team owns the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 17.8 points per game.

Chargers at Dolphins

The L.A. Chargers (5-3 ATS) have captured the interest of sharp money at William Hill books for their game at Miami (6-2 ATS). The Dolphins have won and covered four straight games but opened only -1 at the SuperBook and by Monday morning they were up to -2.5.

The Chargers buy move came on Wednesday dropping the number to -2 and then continued on Thursday to drop it to -1.5 where it sat as of Friday.

Week 10 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Sharp

Broncos
Cardinals
Chargers
Jaguars
Bengals
Ravens

Public

Packers
Saints
Ravens
Raider

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Rosecroft Raceway-Potomac Pace Analysis November 15, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the scene is set for the Potomac Pace Invitational, which is the signature event at Rosecroft Raceway in Fort Washington Maryland. The field this year is comprised of the top three finishers in the Breeders Crown Pace and they will be battling along with six other talented pacers for a share of a $100,000 purse.

Morning line favorite Bettor's Wish will be looking to start a new winning streak after finishing second to Century Farroh in the Crown Pace. Farroh took advantage of a great trip and Bettor's Wish was stuck with the 9 hole, but this time the post edge is negligible. Bettor's Wish has only one race left after tonight before retiring to stud at Diamond Creek Farms.

My play will be to use the third-place finisher in the Crown Pace #2 Backstreet Shadow with the two chalks. On a smaller oval Tetrick should have Shadow in play and could surprise if the trip works out.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11-Potomac Pace Invitational-Purse $100,000

1-This The Plan (8-1)-This is an interesting 5-year-old. He's made over a $1.6 million and I have to wonder how much better he would be if not so difficult to drive. Often rank behind the gate and can be a handful but when he gets going look out. I liked him in the Hoosier Park Derby and that win happened because of a great drive by Dexter Dunn. Not my choice for the top of the ticket and may have trouble hitting the board on the smaller oval starting from the rail.

2-Backstreet Shadow (6-1)-Burke trainee has been a notch below the big boys on a larger oval but did finish third in the Breeders Crown Pace. On the 5/8's from this post, chances for success go up. Tetrick should have him forwardly placed and I'm thinking the turns won't be an issue. No one in this field has raced at Rosecroft before. So, will use this 5-year-old from the inside looking for a top effort and to add some pop to the gimmicks.

3-Harambe Deo (10-1)-Allard should be blasting out as this Cullipher trainee can leave as fast as the gate car. Has raced well at the Big M winning 2 straight but this is a very difficult group and has been off since 10/17. Can't see a gate to wire scenario and that is probably the best chance for a picture.

4-World Of Secrets (12-1)-Ohio invader has won 12 out of 30 starts and is another who may try to leave. Should be a big price but the water is probably too deep tonight.

5-Century Farroh (7/2)-Farroh was my pick in the Breeders Crown Classic and he did not disappoint. May have to grind it out to win this but best to not overlook. Miller is a master at keeping a horse in a position to win and could cash the biggest check with the right trip.

6-Bettor's Wish (8-5)-Just missed from post 9 in the BC Classic as #5 took top honors. Dunn is in an interesting spot from this post and with speed inside it's a coin toss if he elects to leave. My guess is Dunn will duck and be on the move early. The pace could be hot and if this 4-year-old lands on the lead by the top of the lane he may be headed to the winner's circle.

7-Leonidas A (15-1)-Has performed well at Yonkers and Plainridge but lands in some tall cotton tonight. Doesn't have the gate speed to be put in play early and probably isn't good enough to make up enough ground late.

8-Stars Aline A (10-1)-Seven-year-old knows how to win and also knows how to race on the 5/8's. But this post is a crusher for a horse that needs the top to do its best work and is not as talented as most of the others. Might use underneath in gimmicks from the inside but can't endorse in this spot.

9-Highalator (12-1)-Post position #5 and #6 are by far the best spots to start at this track and tonight they belong to the two morning line chalks. This 6-year-old is a game battler and has gate speed, but this is an almost impossible task considering the post draw. Might be a use underneath in gimmicks but can't promote that notion from post 9 versus this crew.

Selections (6-2-5-1)

$5 Exacta 2/5,6-Total Bet=$10
$5 Exacta 5,6/2-Total Bet=$10

$8 Trifecta 5,6/5,6/2-Total Bet=$16
$5 Trifecta 5,6/2/5,6-Total Bet=$10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays for Sunday, Nov. 15, 2020 November 15, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Best Plays

Aqueduct Sixth Race – Post time: 2:15 ET
6 – Linear Thinking (Ire)

Debuting daughter of Shamardal has done everything right in the morning while being given a solid foundation of easy, breezing workouts and should be plenty fit for a top effort first crack out of the box in this maiden special weight maiden fillies turf router. The C. Brown barn wins at a strong 20% with debut runners, and in a field in which the known element doesn’t particularly impress this promising juvenile should be capable of scoring at first asking. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

*

Aqueduct Ninth Race – Post time: 3:47 ET
3 – Vigilantes Way (7/2)

Rapidly progressing daughter of Medaglia d’Oro was a bit unlucky when second in the Hilltop S. at Pimlico on Preakness day, closing stoutly but running out of room while earning a career top speed figure. The lightly-raced filly can be dangerous on the front end or from off the pace, so Johnny V. can assess the race flow and pick his trip. Shug’s filly continues to train well, should have no difficulty with give in the ground, and looks prepared to produce another forward move. There’s value at or near her morning line of 7/2 both in the win pool and in the rolling exotics.

*

Del Mar Fifth Race – Post time: 2:30 PT
6 – She’s Devoted (7/2)

Overcame a rough start and a wide trip to score impressively at first asking with an eye-catching late turn of foot from next-out winner Bella Vita in January, was entered back the following month but was scratched and stopped on. The R. Baltas-trained Cal-bred returns in a first-level allowance affair for barn that has superb stats with layoff runners while switching to F. Prat. Clearly comfortable as a turf sprinter and with a speed figure that makes her a solid fit despite the class hike, she’s a win play and rolling exotic key at or near her morning line of 7/2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Aqueduct - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#4 Shanes Pretty Lady
Pletcher miss won on debut for Gullo and now goes into a HOF barn, drew well, has a world of upside, and could offer a hint of value as well; look out.


#3 Party At Page's
The gal to beat will like the cutback and the stakes win two-back wins this, though she has no margin for error, and last time was ugly; second-best.


#5 Vacay
The pick's 'mate drew clear on debut, though she did it in extremely slow time, so this is a significant class rise, at underlaid odds too; tread lightly here.


Race Summary
There's a lot to like about the pick, especially since she should only improve off her debut and gets a ginormous trainer upgrade, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some built-in value by keying her in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since she looks primed for a breakthrough run.


Aqueduct - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#3 Runabout
Class riser beat lesser at Mth and now invades for a sharp Potts barn, and could set up off the pace; upswt special.


#2 Control Group
The chalk aired on the lead last time and now rises, but wiring again won't be quite as easy; may come unglued late.


#6 Flowers for Lisa
Kantarmaci claim (24%) will be pressing early, though this is a solid rise in class off a 2nd last time; mixed signals here.


Race Summary
The price will be right on the 3, and the race flow could be too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he'll be a square price, which means a win would go a long way in blowing up both sequences.


Aqueduct - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Honorable Avenue
FL invader as fired in two against winners but Breed is sharp, and this one might clear in a paceless race with an aggressive ride; bombs away.


#1 Vitesse
Lightly raced runner will be bet hard, as his last two figures would make him tough, but his lack of early speed doesn't entice; may run out of room.


#10 Mongolian Hero
California newcomer is another without any early lick, and going from Sadler to M. Catalano is a downgrade, at false odds too; making him prove it.


Race Summary
Pace makes the race and there's none here, and that will hurt the 1 and 10, and it could really help the 2 if he's sent, so while he's clearly tough to trust, he has a few angles working, not to mention the price will be big too, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since he could get brave, and a win would completely blow up both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 Malibu Mischief
Draws well while out wide with her sharp pace to put to use, and while she does meet some other speed, she seems likely to best this group while in career form.


#3 S W Briar Rose
Drops out of stakes company, and her very best stuff keeps her in the same league as the top choice. Interesting enough if the 5/1 ML price holds.


#2 Fly On Angel
Grade III winner didn't stack up well in the Miss Preakness, but she's a better fit with this kind and should be in the mix from the start.


Race Summary
Malibu Mischief is worth a look from a good draw if she's offering something near 2/1, as the recent form stands out and she'll be hassling the other pace from the start.


Laurel Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#2 Lucetta's On Fire
Showed some pace before fading with cheaper in the debut, but she has some room to improve and might be able to stick around better here at a price.


#7 Princess Corey
Long layoff runner tries a tag for the first time, and while she's the one to beat on the drop, the price isn't going to be much and she has a couple questions to answer.


#5 Bourbon Wildcat
Forward player didn't miss by much last out when trying this level for the first time, and something similar probably keeps her in the mix again here.


Race Summary
Lucetta's On Fire will have to work for this one on the engine, but she steps up off what may prove to be a useful debut effort while meeting a somewhat questionable group.


Laurel Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#3 Al Brown
Worth a small look at what should be a big price, as his two tries against winners have produced nothing, but he'll race with blinkers today and had flashed some talent early in the career.


#4 Admire
Pressing type should be in line for a great trip with these, and he can bounce back after a fading Keeneland effort last out.


#6 Plot the Dots
Dirt form stacks up nicely here while a bit soured by the turf form. He's a midpack spying threat with these, but he may not offer a fair enough price compared to a couple of other potential players.


Race Summary
Al Brown will be a price while adding blinkers, and he turned in a couple of really nice maiden efforts here to open his career before failing to fire off the bench here and showing nothing in that Belmont slop try. Willing to give him a chance to revive his better efforts today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park West - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#1 Pray for Rain
Was third on the main track at Monmouth and has a good chance to make up ground here; capable in her first Florida appearance.


#3 Time's On My Side
Has trained well for her first career start; Joseph stable undoubtedly has this good-drilling a.m. runner her ready to run for real.


#2 Lady Jae
Finished mid-pack in her career debut and can improve with a return to this strip; expect her make some good strides in her return.


Race Summary
Pray for Rain can stalk a quick pace and can benefit from an inside trip; should be moving well late in the game.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#5 Surf Shack
Didn't make up any ground but improved position against better company; takes a step down in class and can rise to the occasion.


#5 Starship Aramis
Has been the early leader in his last three and stayed for the win three races back; he was claimed last out by the Sweezey stable, which is hitting at 32 percent here.


#1 Monmouth Dr
Battled and just missed in his first one over this track; does well going two turns on the front end.


Race Summary
Surf Shack has spent his career running vs. much better company than this and continues his downward move in class; should get along well at this level.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Janet B Doesit All
Didn't fire in the slop last time out but has several races on her form that make her a contender at this level; serious late runner vs. these.


#7 Indatequila
Was a clear winner in her last two, first for maiden-claiming and most recently vs. N2L bottom claimers and has a good chance to keep the success going for the Sweezey barn.


#4 Etana
Drops out of much tougher races and should be able to move up in this spot.


Race Summary
Janet B Doesit All responds when she gets help from a good pace, and that could be the case here; has a decent closing move and will pounce if the front runners weaken.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Two NFL Picks 11/15

Here's a couple for Sunday.

100* Giants +4
100* Over 46 Washington/Lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park West



Gulfstream Park West - Race 8

$1 Exacta / $2 Quiniela / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5



Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 4:08P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. TEACHER DRAMA is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * JANET B DOESIT ALL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Ratin g. ETANA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. INEDATEQUILA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. JUST A BIT SASSY: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MIDNIGHT GEM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



2

JANET B DOESIT ALL

6/1


5/1




4

ETANA

12/1


6/1




7

INEDATEQUILA

6/5


8/1




3

JUST A BIT SASSY

8/1


9/1




6

MIDNIGHT GEM

4/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

UNION LANE

8


20/1

Front-runner

73


64


71.0


55.6


41.6




7

INEDATEQUILA

7


6/5

Front-runner

69


76


59.7


64.2


54.7




5

TEACHER DRAMA

5


20/1

Alternator/Stalker

69


66


51.9


53.6


42.1




2

JANET B DOESIT ALL

2


6/1

Trailer

83


79


62.0


64.0


58.0




3

JUST A BIT SASSY

3


8/1

Trailer

76


62


59.2


60.2


53.2




6

MIDNIGHT GEM

6


4/1

Trailer

76


64


49.8


61.7


48.7




4

ETANA

4


12/1

Trailer

76


68


26.0


63.0


55.0




1

BROADWAY CAT

1


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

82


69


64.4


55.7


46.7




9

CAT'S J N J

9


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


68


50.3


48.2


36.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1. NSA(The Legend) NFL Washington +3
2. Gameday Network NFL Steelers -7
3. VegasSI.com NFL Raiders -3.5
4. Vegas Line Crushers NFL Rams -2.5
5. Sports Action 365 NFL Dolphins under 48.5
6. Point Spread Report NFL Packers over 47.5
7. Lou Panelli NFL Texans +4
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino NFL Giants +4
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club NFL Saints -10
10. William E. Stockton NFL Dolphins -2
11. Vincent Pioli NFL Bills +2.5
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall NFL Raiders -3.5
13. SCORE NFL Packers -14
14. East Coast Line Movers NFL Washington +3
15. Tony Campone NFL Packers -14
16. Chicago Sports Group NFL Bills under 56
17. Hollywood Sportsline NFL Dolphins -2
18. VIP Action NFL Buccaneers -5.5
19. South Beach Sports NFL Texans +4
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission NFL Steelers over 45.5
21. NY Players Club NFL Packers -14
22. Fred Callahan NFL Rams under 55
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club NFL Dolphins under 48.5
24. Michigan Sports NFL Raiders -3.5
25. National Consensus Report NFL Eagles over 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar



Del Mar - Race 4

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double 50 cent min. Rolling Pick Three / $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) 50 cent Pick Six Starts / $2 WPS Parlay



Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $57,000 • Post: 2:00P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. TAPITUTION is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHARLITO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TAPITUTION: Hors e has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SEICHE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface.



1

CHARLITO

8/5


7/2




6

TAPITUTION

7/2


5/1




3

SEICHE

5/2


6/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

MUNNINGS' PILOT

4


6/1

Front-runner

0


0


109.0


66.4


57.9




5

TIZ VICIOUS

5


4/1

Front-runner

86


79


80.6


66.4


56.9




3

SEICHE

3


5/2

Alternator/Front-runner

96


92


92.3


70.2


64.7




6

TAPITUTION

6


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


99.5


82.5


77.5




1

CHARLITO

1


8/5

Trailer

94


93


88.3


88.6


86.1




2

MONGOLIAN KINGDOM

2


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


63.5


63.5


53.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct



11/15/20, AQU, Race 1, 11.50 ET
11/15/20,AQU,1,6F [Turf] 1:07:03 CLAIMING. Purse $50,000. OUTER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Maiden and Claiming races for $20,000 or less not considered in allowances) (1.5% Aftercare Assessment due at time of claim otherwise claim will be void). (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
4
The Queens Jules
8/1
Saez S
Potts Wayne
F
5
60.00
3.18/$1


099.2501
1
New York's Finest
5/2
Ortiz. Jr. I
Rodriguez Rudy R.
J
28
35.71
1.29/$1


098.2637
8
War Stroll
12/1
Diaz. Jr. H R
Potts Wayne
C
2
50.00
2.85/$1


098.0856
2
Duncastle
7/2
Cardenas L
Morley Thomas
S
6
50.00
1.83/$1


097.6555
13
McErin
8/5
Carmouche K
Morley Thomas
L
5
60.00
3.18/$1


097.5694
11
Apache Brave
15/1
Carmouche K
Ness Jamie
TW
36
27.78
1.16/$1


097.5159
1A
Dowse's Beach
5/2
Castellano J
Maker Michael J.
E
2
50.00
2.85/$1


097.4692
6
Ian Glass
4/1
Rosario J
Handal Raymond


5
60.00
3.18/$1


095.0960
10
Releasethethunder
4/1
Lezcano J
Miceli Michael


5
60.00
3.18/$1


095.0184
5
Dr. Shane
9/2
Franco M
Gargan Danny


2
50.00
2.85/$1


094.7199
12
Brush Country
8/1
Rider TBA
Jones Eduardo E.


5
60.00
3.18/$1


094.4981
9
Outrageous Bet
20/1
DeCarlo C P
Chichakly Amira


5
60.00
3.18/$1


091.4130
3
Another
15/1
Hernandez B
Kantarmaci Mertkan


5
60.00
3.18/$1


089.7582
7
Honorable Hero
30/1
Luzzi M J
Toscano. Jr. John T.


36
27.78
1.16/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 16.1300, ROI 0.4742/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 The Queens Jules
[Category]Condition
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]LastRaceWasDirtWithTurfToday
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
1
New York's Finest
5/2
Ortiz. Jr. I
Rodriguez Rudy R.
J
19
47.37
2.06/$1


099.5528
1A
Dowse's Beach
5/2
Castellano J
Maker Michael J.
E
30
53.33
1.93/$1


099.2322
11
Apache Brave
15/1
Carmouche K
Ness Jamie
TW
30
53.33
1.93/$1


098.9183
13
McErin
8/5
Carmouche K
Morley Thomas
L
30
53.33
1.93/$1


098.8118
2
Duncastle
7/2
Cardenas L
Morley Thomas
SF
19
47.37
2.06/$1


098.2607
8
War Stroll
12/1
Diaz. Jr. H R
Potts Wayne
C
70
35.71
1.33/$1


098.1988
4
The Queens Jules
8/1
Saez S
Potts Wayne


19
47.37
2.06/$1


097.8086
10
Releasethethunder
4/1
Lezcano J
Miceli Michael


30
53.33
1.93/$1


097.6407
5
Dr. Shane
9/2
Franco M
Gargan Danny


19
47.37
2.06/$1


097.3327
6
Ian Glass
4/1
Rosario J
Handal Raymond


19
47.37
2.06/$1


094.8535
9
Outrageous Bet
20/1
DeCarlo C P
Chichakly Amira


19
47.37
2.06/$1


094.5103
3
Another
15/1
Hernandez B
Kantarmaci Mertkan


19
47.37
2.06/$1


094.3255
12
Brush Country
8/1
Rider TBA
Jones Eduardo E.


30
53.33
1.93/$1


092.8801
7
Honorable Hero
30/1
Luzzi M J
Toscano. Jr. John T.


19
47.37
2.06/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 40.3600, ROI 1.0506/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 New York's Finest
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]MorningLineOddsGreaterThanOrEqualTo1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 75

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 RED ASTAIRE (ML=3/1)
#2 FINAL STRIKE (ML=7/2)


RED ASTAIRE - Carey brings him right back. I propose you stick with this live gelding. This gelding should be at the peak of fitness, this far into his form cycle. This gelding is at the top in earnings per start. Take a long look at this animal before the race. Dropped in class last time out, running against the same type today. FINAL STRIKE - This gelding registered a good figure of 64 in his last event. That speed rating should be lofty enough to win this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ANIMAL KRACKERS (ML=4/1), #7 SEA SCOUT (ML=6/1), #8 BIG TIME GIZMO (ML=8/1),

ANIMAL KRACKERS - A pattern of lessening speed ratings 74/68/56 for this mount. SEA SCOUT - I'd like to see more preferred recent outings with M/L odds of 6/1. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was disappointing when compared with today's class rating. BIG TIME GIZMO - 8/1 is not worth the risk for any racer in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance race lately. Not probable that the speed rating he earned on November 1st will hold up in this race.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #3 RED ASTAIRE to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Hawthorne - Race #8 - Post: 6:26pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 62

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 MS KELA TIME (ML=4/1)
#4 CAROLINA BEAST (ML=5/1)
#3 G CITY WARRIOR (ML=20/1)


MS KELA TIME - Ran a lackluster race at Hawthorne last time out. Racing under better track conditions puts this filly at the top of my contenders list. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (fifth). Should rebound in this event, with some decent odds. Felix and Robertson have had wonderful success together over this last year. Just see her recent rating, 62. That one fits well in this group. Ranks at the top in (EPS) earnings per start. A strong try in this field can increase that bankroll. The improved speed figs over the last three races is solid. Robertson drops her in this affair conditioned to win. CAROLINA BEAST - I cannot ignore the fact that this filly is working extremely well. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough efforts since the layoff and should be fit. I just may give this one a shot. Should improve off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within five lengths at the finish line. G CITY WARRIOR - Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Look for this filly to run lots better in this field. Last affair at Hawthorne finishing eighth on the mud is no indication of her true ability. Horse has improved at least two Equibase speed figure points in last 2 races. I look for that to continue to trend in a positive direction in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HOT PEPPER SUZIE (ML=2/1), #2 HENRYS GIRL (ML=9/2),

HOT PEPPER SUZIE - Would have to improve off that sixth place finish last time to make an impact here. HENRYS GIRL - Horse ran a great speed figure in the last race, but that was on a muddy track.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #8 MS KELA TIME on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 13

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.




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https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 LADY HELEN 20/1




# 3 ROSANI O. 15/1




# 6 LA TIENDITA 4/1




LADY HELEN is my pick especially at a long price. ROSANI O. - She looks competitive in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.