Wednesday 11/25/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Parx Racing - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 Saafen
Shadwell homebred has a slew or works for this, debuts for Pino, who is a wicked 32% with firsters, and doesn't met much, in terms of proven runners; thinking he's live.


#2 Garban
Speedster woke up when Lasix was added last time, but it was also in the slop, and the dry land debut was ugly, so at underlaid odds he's a bit tough to trust; second-best.


#5 Stimulus Maker
Homebred starts for a solid Duarte barn that is 14% on debut, though the works are extremely slow, suggesting he may need this one before firing his best; tabbing today.


Race Summary
Tab the tote on the 1, as you'd like to see him live and taking money if he's ready, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since he won't have to be a monster to beat a group like this at first-asking.


Parx Racing - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#7 Brett's World
Reid runner was a relatively DOB at 14-1 on debut and was a decent 4th, and now Lasix goes on, and this is a sterling 35% second-out barn; look out.


#6 Capo Kane
Heavy hitter chased, cleared, then tired late on debut to be a solid 2nd here, and he's bred to love the added turn and ground he gets; looms very large.


#1 Doctor Doom
Underlaid ML favorite drew well and tried two turns last time, so that's an edge on the top-2, though that slow 3rd was no great shakes; trying to beat on top.


Race Summary
There's a lot to like about the pick, especially when you view the big angles in light of the rest of the field, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him to kick off the middle Pk4 as well, since he looks primed for a breakthrough run, which means he'd be laying down a race the rest of these simply wouldn't be able to handle.


Parx Racing - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#3 Goldenlineof
Class dropper was 6th in a very fast race for the level last time off the break, should only improve here, and will be a square price too; sends them all home happy.


#8 No Fly Zone
The horse to beat wins this with that close 2nd last time, though you wonder if regression is coming off such a strong run, based on the rest of his form; tread lightly.


#9 Admiral Eastwood
Logical sort is another dropper, and he really improved off the Taylor claim last time, so if he builds off that run he's got every right to make a big dent; do not ignore.


Race Summary
The price will be big on the 3 but there are reasons to think he fires here, and with just the 8 to fear the risk-reward will be there so give him a look in all the slots, as well as ending the late Pk4, since a win would really blow up the sequence. As an aside, this will be my last day making picks, so thanks to everyone for following me here and in the blogs over the last several years, and best of luck to all of you, and I hope you pick a bunch of winners in the future!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Dover Downs Stakes Analysis

November 25, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Grand Circuit racing for 2020 concludes today at Dover Downs with the $325,000 Progress Pace for 3-year-olds. This will be the final race for the Ron Burke trainee Cattlewash who is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and trainer John Ackley's Catch the Fire. The 15-race card also features fillies and colts in Delaware Breeders Fund action.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8-Delaware Breeders Final-2-year-old filles pace-Purse $100,000

6-Littlebagoftricks (5/2)-Has won its last 2 starts on a fast and sloppy track. Versatile filly can race off cover or set the pace and she rates a slight edge.
2-Stealing Bases (7/2)-Talented 2-year-old has won 5 of 7 starts and has never missed hitting the board. Was caught down the lane in last by #6 who rallied off a pocket trip. Had won 5 of 6 previously and not sure if Tetrick wanted to use her down the stretch in a race that didn't matter much.
4-Hey Hey Dbay (9/2)-It wouldn't shock me if this filly takes a picture tonight but will probably need to go a couple of seconds faster than she has. Has won 2 straight, paced the 2nd half in 57.2 last week and should offer a square price.
5-Cinder's Baby (6-1)-Here's the 2nd leading money winner in the field who placed in a $100,000 stake at Harrington. Could be overlooked at the windows and might add some pop to the gimmicks.

Race 10-Delaware Breeders Final-2-year-old colts pace-Purse $100,000

8-Henrico (5/2)-This is one of two entries from the Clyde Francis barn and the arrow is pointing up on this colt. Winner of 3 straight drew off to beat stable mate #7, who was the slight favorite last week. Starting outside doesn't help chances but does help the price and Morgan can leave to get a good seat.
6-Z's Dream (7/2)-This 2-year-old gelding might be the fastest off the gate and has a post edge on main foes. Best to not overlook because if Stafford gets the top and steals a quarter chances for a picture go up.
7-Subban (9/2)-Did win a $100,000 Final in Harrington on 10/7, but since coming off the bench in November hasn't been as sharp. Looked a little rough coming down the lane last week but is a major threat with a top effort.
4-Mr Overbite (8-1)-Has had a breaking issue but put in a clean line here on 11/16 to break maiden. Could hit the bottom of the Super at a big price if Callahan can provide a smooth journey.

Race 12-Progress Pace Final-Purse $325,000

7-No Lou Zing (5/2)-Three great horses who raced for the last time at the Big M over the weekend in stakes all won before heading to retirement. My take is that won't happen tonight. This Takter pupil has been sharp, likes the track and is ranked 5th in money earned among 3-year-old pacers for 2020. Dunn should be able to get the top or the 2 hole behind Cattlewash. Either trip could work for a season ending victory.
4-Fortify (9/2)-This is another from the Takter stable and this pupil hasn't been able to beat the top colts this year. But has been racing well and comes off a tough trip from post 10 last week. Tetrick should put in striking range and has a post edge over the top talent. Might be overlooked at the windows and will use in gimmicks.
8-Cattlewash (2-1)-This will be the last start before heading to stud. Burke trainee is as game as they come and is often used hard to get the top. Could win his finale but from this post I'm saying no.
5-Catch The Fire (7/2)-This is a very nice 3-year-old who is also making his last start. Draws inside the morning line chalks and should be in the mix but has lacked a big finish recently.

$10 Exacta 7/4
$10 Trifecta 7-4-8 and 7-8-4
Total Bet=$30

Happy Thanksgiving!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 Prince Amadeus
Went evenly while in midpack in the debut run, but he has some room to improve off that effort with a nice work since.


#10 Insofar
Was a decent fit with this kind when second with the locals at 3/5 back in July, and while he's probably the one to beat, the price figures to be short again in a spot where he really isn't a standout.


#1 Skinnersburg
He has been heading in the right direction through all three starts, and the addition of blinkers tonight might be enough to get him over the top. Not out of it.


Race Summary
Prince Amadeus has upside off an even debut run, and the price figures right in a spot where a couple other logical horses should dominate the wagering action.


Mountaineer - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#10 Wild Wine
Will need to hold the form for the new barn, but that was a pretty big step in the right direction last out when trying two turns for the first time. Take it at face value?


#4 O Driscoll
Can't imagine the price will be fair on this guy after finishing second, beaten nearly ten, as the 1/2 chalk in that last one, but the drop makes him very tough here.


#9 Crealock
No real threat at 3/5 last time out, and he has had a dozen chances, so he can win this one without me on principle.


Race Summary
Wild Wine flashed some tactical pace and stayed on nicely when trying a route for the first time last out. The 45/1 price from last out is gone, but he's probably still going to offer a fair price with plenty of folks likely to make him prove that last one was for real.


Mountaineer - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Leading Indicator
Gets protected off the claim tonight, and her best stuff is right on the cusp of what it would take to be competitive here, and the price should be fair to find out.


#4 Musabaqa
Reliable type rolled a similar group by ten a couple starts back, and she should get another fair race shape with a couple of sharp pace players signed on.


#2 Sharpin
Was beaten a couple of times recently by Musabaqa, and the price may not accurately reflect her chances here.


Race Summary
Leading Indicator can get the right kind of tactical trip at a square price, and there's a chance she'll float a bit from her 8/1 ML price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#1 COUGAR HALL
Classy 10yo steadily advanced after ‘lame’ excuse in return.


#5 REDHOT ROMEO
Rallied for second behind a pair of odds-on winners.


#7 DAMION DIESEL HAHN
Lightly raced this year, drops off encouraging tune-up.


Race Summary
Cougar Hall sustained a 3- and 4-wide rally into a fast pace from post 8 to finish third against better at Pocono Downs. He showed speed in a qualifier and figures tough in his bid for a 22nd win.


Dover Downs - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#6 I’M DONE TALKING
Tight fit at this level for high-percentage connections.


#1 ANNEKE
Pocket trip, just missed in blanket finish, starts from rail.


#5 BFF HANOVER
Won 5 of 17 as 3yo, makes third start of cycle.


Race Summary
I’m Done Talking, no match for an odds-on, three-peat winner, takes a magnified class drop as he looks to build on a 26/5-6-3 resume. She will likely be put into play early with Tetrick getting the call. Play 6-1 and 6-5 exactas.


Northfield Park - Race #14


Picks
Notes


#6 WOW ME
No breathers in local debut, due for better racing luck.


#8 ROSE RUN VINDICATE
Dayton invader ran first or second in 23 of last 29 starts.


#9 CHAMPAGNE ON ICE
Filly overcame post 9 at Hoosier for seventh win this year.


Race Summary
Wow Me was flushed out before the half, parked a long way by the favorite and finished third with provisional driver. He at least offers value in a deeper field, so play a 6-8-9 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park West - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Bright Venezuelan
Closed strongly and was up in time last out, takes a step up in class and should be the one the hold off.


#3 Heir Ball
Extremely fast and won her last two turf attempts; tired last time, but that was on a sloppy main track and she can probably resume good form here.


#5 Distinctly Blue
Has enough speed to stay close and could have the closing move to take it.


Race Summary
Bright Venezuelan has a strong closing move, can stay within range and has a good chance for a repeat victory here. Gets a good pace setup.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Chez Paree
Was an easy winner two back, was claimed by Kopaj and didn't fired in her return; stretches out to two turns and could be tough for them to handle here.


#5 Abilene Trail
Was up in time in a maiden race in her first local effort after two attempts in New York; she's bred to run as far as they want her to and will be in the mix throughout.


#6 Heiressindy
Hit the four in her last four races and has the advantage of having been a regular at this distance; can be tough if the top players have trouble getting the entire eight furlongs.


Race Summary
Chez Paree has probably been eager to stretch out and gets her credit; makes her second start for Kopaj, who has won two of his five starts.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#1 Noble Indy
Ran an even second at Gulfstream last out and can improve off that effort in this spot; tough veteran can be a big player here.


#3 Hay Dakota
Ran off to an easy win last Kentucky Downs last out and was a factor in two-turn races early in the year; fits well.


#7 Speed Franco
Dropped to his lowest level two races back and ran off to easy wins in each; takes a big step up for his form is solid.


Race Summary
Noble Indy has the tactical speed to be where he wants and has enough finish in him to fight off late challengers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park



Mountaineer Park - Race 5

2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 5 (races 5-9) $.50 Wheel



Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $6,800 • Post: 8:28P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Trailer. WRITTEN IN RED is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HARMONIC THUNDER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within ha lf a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). WRITTEN IN RED: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance ( within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MISS LOTUS FLOWER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MILLBANK MAGIC: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).



3

HARMONIC THUNDER

9/2


5/1




4

WRITTEN IN RED

20/1


6/1




6

MISS LOTUS FLOWER

10/1


6/1




8

MILLBANK MAGIC

20/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




10

GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY

10


3/1

Front-runner

65


54


45.8


47.2


39.7




5

JULIPS HOLD

5


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

56


51


46.7


39.0


23.5




2

STYLISH NINETYNINE

2


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

51


53


43.2


50.5


41.0




4

WRITTEN IN RED

4


20/1

Trailer

57


54


63.5


51.2


43.2




1

SPECIAL CONQUEST

1


30/1

Trailer

66


59


33.8


41.2


27.7




3

HARMONIC THUNDER

3


9/2

Alternator/Trailer

69


57


48.4


48.0


40.5




6

MISS LOTUS FLOWER

6


10/1

Alternator/Trailer

71


65


42.8


43.8


34.8




8

MILLBANK MAGIC

8


20/1

Alternator/Trailer

70


52


36.4


41.6


31.6




7

SASSY ZEEMAN

7


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


40.0


43.0


33.0




9

SHEZALLGOLD

9


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

47


36


36.5


34.1


17.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course



Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 5

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)



Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:36P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 25. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. I GOT THE TIME is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DEVILISH MAGIC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANNISQ UAM: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MONBA NUMBER FIVE: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. I GOT THE TIME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/s urface.



2

DEVILISH MAGIC

5/2


9/2




7

ANNISQUAM

3/1


5/1




8

MONBA NUMBER FIVE

9/2


7/1




1

I GOT THE TIME

8/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

ANNISQUAM

8


3/1

Front-runner

73


66


63.8


64.2


61.2




2

DEVILISH MAGIC

1


5/2

Alternator/Front-runner

80


66


59.8


63.4


59.4




1A

REGAL GHOST

7


8/1

Stalker

71


57


51.8


49.6


36.6




3

SHE'S NOT BLUFFING

2


15/1

Alternator/Stalker

61


51


54.2


49.8


36.3




5

BLACK BUTTE

5


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

65


58


50.8


50.6


38.1




8

MONBA NUMBER FIVE

9


9/2

Alternator/Stalker

81


75


47.4


53.6


39.1




1

I GOT THE TIME

3


8/1

Alternator/Trailer

69


65


38.8


55.0


49.0




6

FLAWLESS FACE

6


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

66


64


64.6


32.0


16.5




4

JILLY FROM JERSEY

4


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

68


52


49.4


48.2


37.7




9

DOYLE THE WARRIOR

10


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

67


53


30.8


42.0


26.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:36pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 80

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 BRANDYWINES SECRET (ML=6/1)
#5 SUSIKIN (ML=3/1)
#2 CUCKOO FORCONONUTS (ML=5/1)


BRANDYWINES SECRET - Trainer Fenimore moves this one down the class ladder to face a weaker class today. Look for a solid performance racing against these lower level horses. This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +204. This mare's last speed fig is high enough to win here, I'll wager on her back again this time out. SUSIKIN - A wise man taught me to invest in the lone speed horse. Take a look at this thoroughbred. I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. This animal is a hot commodity. Claimed in her last two races. CUCKOO FORCONONUTS - Looking at this mare's running lines, I see she's almost always on the board.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TRIXIE'S TIME (ML=5/2), #7 MISS TSCHETTER (ML=9/2), #3 FIORE (ML=8/1),

TRIXIE'S TIME - In the last race this questionable contender finished third. Doesn't bode well for her chances this time out. MISS TSCHETTER - I can't play this repeated non-winner. Gets the job fulfilled from time to time. Don't believe this questionable contender will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was common when compared with today's Equibase class figure. FIORE - When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, she will have to notch a better speed rating than in the last race to battle in this dirt sprint.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 BRANDYWINES SECRET to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 49

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 NAUTICAL WARRIOR 6/5




# 9 YESIKNOWWHOIAM 8/1




# 4 ASK ME HOW IKNOW 3/1




I think NAUTICAL WARRIOR is a formidable choice. With Bocachica getting the mount, watch out for this animal. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 54 - of his last affair. Has a sharp shot in this competition if you like back class. YESIKNOWWHOIAM - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good angle. This one ranks at the top in this field of horses. A nice ROI of +1 with this jockey and trainer duo. ASK ME HOW IKNOW - Atkins has him trained solidly to break sharply out of the starting gate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 48

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 CAJUNS GOLDEN POND 20/1




# 9 WISE ANCHOR 4/1




# 11 MR. CURLIN 10/1




I've got to go with CAJUNS GOLDEN POND and is a formidable value bet given the line. Guerrero will almost certainly be able to get this colt to break out quickly in this contest. WISE ANCHOR - Look for a much improved effort with the drop. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is formidable for this animal. MR. CURLIN - Can't overlook the connections here, a 16 winning percentage, one of the most competitive at getting into the winner's circle. His chances to prove victorious are much better this time around facing this easier bunch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs



11/25/20, TAM, Race 9, 4.24 ET
11/25/20,TAM,9,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:03 CLAIMING. Purse $12,850 (includes up to $850 FOA - Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since October 25 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
2
Splendor Beach
12/1
Castanon J L
Chavez Jose A.
SF
99
26.26
1.56/$1


097.0248
7
Skol Chant
4/1
Diaz. Jr. H R
Stidham Michael
T
78
23.08
1.46/$1


096.8784
5
Kelcie's Mandate
15/1
Marin A A
Raymond Robert A.


147
22.45
1.22/$1


095.5245
13
Little Ms Broadway
20/1
Camacho S
Bennett Gerald S.


147
22.45
1.22/$1


095.5087
3
Mahkato
7/2
Centeno D
Collins Johnny


147
22.45
1.22/$1


095.3632
1
Magdalena
12/1
Villa-Gomez H
Potts Ron G.
E
147
22.45
1.22/$1


095.2495
11
Real Wild Solution
10/1
Garcia W A
Einhorn Skip


147
22.45
1.22/$1


094.3873
8
Mi Karlita
15/1
Trejos J
Sano Antonio


147
22.45
1.22/$1


093.8339
9
Lake Parima
9/2
Burgos A
Sweezey J. Kent


78
23.08
1.46/$1


093.7530
6
Donnameup
10/1
Batista J A
Durr Zollie


147
22.45
1.22/$1


093.6323
12
Puffer Fish
12/1
Morales P
Rice Kevin
J
78
23.08
1.46/$1


093.2705
14
Can't Katz Her
15/1
Spieth S
Gonzalez Aldana


78
23.08
1.46/$1


090.2258
4
Mijet
3/1
Camacho S
Gutierrez Fausto
L
78
23.08
1.46/$1


088.7435
10
Wonder Blondy
12/1
Urdaneta J J
Rodriguez Juan Andres
C
78
23.08
1.46/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 20.0000, ROI 0.6050/$1
. . . .
100.0000 2 Splendor Beach
[Category]Condition
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]LastRacePurseNotHigherThanToday with
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]NotMorningLineFavorite(not entry)
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
4
Mijet
3/1
Camacho S
Gutierrez Fausto
SL
269
36.06
1.06/$1


099.3321
9
Lake Parima
9/2
Burgos A
Sweezey J. Kent


269
36.06
1.06/$1


098.8200
3
Mahkato
7/2
Centeno D
Collins Johnny
EW
269
36.06
1.06/$1


098.2910
7
Skol Chant
4/1
Diaz. Jr. H R
Stidham Michael
T
269
36.06
1.06/$1


097.8702
2
Splendor Beach
12/1
Castanon J L
Chavez Jose A.
F
421
31.12
0.96/$1


097.7111
6
Donnameup
10/1
Batista J A
Durr Zollie


269
36.06
1.06/$1


096.9834
11
Real Wild Solution
10/1
Garcia W A
Einhorn Skip


269
36.06
1.06/$1


096.7343
10
Wonder Blondy
12/1
Urdaneta J J
Rodriguez Juan Andres
C
269
36.06
1.06/$1


095.7614
1
Magdalena
12/1
Villa-Gomez H
Potts Ron G.


269
36.06
1.06/$1


095.7554
14
Can't Katz Her
15/1
Spieth S
Gonzalez Aldana


123
34.96
1.15/$1


095.4231
13
Little Ms Broadway
20/1
Camacho S
Bennett Gerald S.


269
36.06
1.06/$1


095.1381
5
Kelcie's Mandate
15/1
Marin A A
Raymond Robert A.


269
36.06
1.06/$1


094.5421
12
Puffer Fish
12/1
Morales P
Rice Kevin
J
269
36.06
1.06/$1


094.2490
8
Mi Karlita
15/1
Trejos J
Sano Antonio


269
36.06
1.06/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.6700, ROI 0.8583/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 Mijet
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]LastRaceWasNotFavorite(not entry)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Churchill Downs - Race #7 - Post: 4:06pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $39,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 IRISH WILLOW (ML=5/1)
#4 BLACK KAT TAPS (ML=4/1)
#2 SUPER CAT LADY (ML=5/1)


IRISH WILLOW - Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a good race on November 5th. BLACK KAT TAPS - Hernandez and Sharp partnered with one another are a horse gambler's friend. Looking at today's class figure, this racer is meeting an easier bunch than last out at Oaklawn Park. This filly has been posting some excellent workout times. SUPER CAT LADY - I like to play this angle, a horse coming back off a good race within the last month or so. Filly tallied a victory her last race here on October 29th as a shipper. I think she looks like a winner once again. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (56-71-77) make this horse a dominant contender. The 77 most recent race figure looks good in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FLASHY BIZ (ML=3/1), #1 SUGAR LOVE (ML=4/1), #5 ERV'S WENCH (ML=5/1),

FLASHY BIZ - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but she falters frequently. When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a better rating than last out to be competitive in this dirt sprint. SUGAR LOVE - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Couldn't make up any ground whatsoever on Oct 22nd. Hard to play today at the expected odds. ERV'S WENCH - This filly recorded a speed fig in her last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 IRISH WILLOW is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin Event: (697) East Tenn State at (698) Abilene Christian
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: November 25, 2020 11AM EST
Play: Abilene Christian 0.0 (-110)
Note this is an early Wednesday tip off, starting at 8AM Pacific time. My thoughts early n the season are that cohesiveness is going to be a big key. So I'm looking for teams that return a true nucleus from last season, and looking to go against teams that have massive lineup transition. This looks like the biggest differential on opening day as far as that goes. Abilene Christian has four starters back from a very solid team that was no worse than the second best entry in the Southland. East Tennessee was a powerhouse last season, but all the key elements have departed from that 30-4 team that was heading to the NCAA Tournament. The Buccaneers also lost their coach as highly respected Steve Forbes climbed the ladder to take over at Wake Forest. I'm sure there's still talent on this ETSU roster but with a new coach and basically an all-new lineup, the Bucs look vulnerable early. I like the under the radar Wildcats to win this one, so Abilene Christian is my first call of the new season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (224249) Real Madrid at (224250) Inter Milan
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 25, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Total Over 3.0 (-115)
PLAY: OVER 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard Event: (721) Villanova at (722) Boston College
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: November 25, 2020 9PM EST
Play: Total Over 143.0 (-110)
721 Villanova at Boston College
Normally when a coach talks about speeding up the tempo we take it with a grain of salt. Just about everyone talks about it, but rarely does it turn out that way on the court. But we believe Jay Wright when he talks about getting up and down the court, for two reasons. First, he has the backcourt to play that way. Secondly, this team has the depth to keep up the pace when playing in mismatched games, like the one we have here.
Boston College ended last season going 4-13, so this team is anxious to get back to business. It's likely the deepest team Jim Christian has had in Chestnut Hill. The backcourt is the strength of this team, and we expect the scoring to improve from a year ago. We look for this to be a high paced contest with plenty of scoring opportunities.
PLAY OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia Event: (307069) Nicholls State at (307070) UC Davis
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: November 25, 2020 10PM EST
Play: Total Over 142.5 (-110)
The first dose of college basketball of the season is upon us and the youngest coach at the D-I level looks to reload with guards Kevin Johnson, Shawn Williams and AJ Rainey will look to help replace the production of departed leading scorer Dexter McClanahan. 31-year-old Austin Claunch says he has a good mix in place and should let it fly against an Aggies squad that finished 336th in effective field-goal percentage defense last season under veteran coach Jim Les, a former NBA guard known for his shooting. Les relied on youth last season and hopes that pays off in 2020-21, so we'll see what improvements have been made as these teams tip off in Santa Clara at the Bronco Invitational. With both teams likely to butter their bread on the offensive end this season, look for a game where both get into the 70s on the scoreboard. Ride the over 142.5 in my first college hoops free play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart Nov 25 '20, 6:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State
Play on: Eastern Michigan +22 -115 at BMaker

EMU brings just about their entire team and now with their experience Im betting their defensive play will advance well under Rob Murphy’s 2-3 zone. This is a big tall group with experience, and while obviously being out talented by Michigan State should be able to grind away here and get us the cover.
Eastern Michigan to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns Nov 25 '20, 6:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Cal-Irvine vs Pepperdine
Play on: Pepperdine -1 -114 at pinnacle

Pepperdine rallied late to beat UC Irvine (77-73) last season. This season, the Waves bring back a lot, including senior point guard Colbey Ross. Though Ross had a modest 13 points and eight assists in last year's game, he's a bigtime talent. While the Waves return four starters, the Anteaters lose four (senior) starters. While expecations are always high for this team, they're going to be pretty inexperienced out of the gate. I say Pepperdine beats them again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Nov 25 '20, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Tennessee Tech vs Indiana
Play on: Indiana -21 -110 at Bovada

1* on Indiana -21 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Nov 25 '20, 8:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Clemson vs Mississippi State
Play on: Clemson -4 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Clemson -4 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Red Dog Sports Nov 25 '20, 9:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Villanova vs Boston College
Play on: Villanova -13½ -115 at Bovada

Villanova -13.5
Villanova has one of the five best programs in college basketball. Jay Wright's club has won two of the past five national titles. They do lose a few key players but have some solid players coming in to replace them. Boston College has struggled to play .500 ball in the ACC. I think we see the Wildcats win by 15 or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard Nov 25 '20, 9:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Villanova vs Boston College
Play on: OVER 143 -110

721 Villanova at Boston College
Normally when a coach talks about speeding up the tempo we take it with a grain of salt. Just about everyone talks about it, but rarely does it turn out that way on the court. But we believe Jay Wright when he talks about getting up and down the court, for two reasons. First, he has the backcourt to play that way. Secondly, this team has the depth to keep up the pace when playing in mismatched games, like the one we have here.
Boston College ended last season going 4-13, so this team is anxious to get back to business. It's likely the deepest team Jim Christian has had in Chestnut Hill. The backcourt is the strength of this team, and we expect the scoring to improve from a year ago. We look for this to be a high paced contest with plenty of scoring opportunities.
PLAY OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

603OAKLAND -604 XAVIER
XAVIER is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

607W MICHIGAN -608 BUTLER
BUTLER is 175-104 ATS (60.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.

609W CAROLINA -610 UNC-WILMINGTON
UNC-WILMINGTON is 48-29 ATS (16.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

613OLD DOMINION -614 MARYLAND
MARYLAND is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in the last 3 seasons.

615FAIRFIELD -616 PROVIDENCE
PROVIDENCE is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997.

619OKLAHOMA ST -620 TX-ARLINGTON
TX-ARLINGTON is 67-38 ATS (25.2 Units) as a dog since 1997.

625IDAHO -626 SEATTLE
IDAHO is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) against the WAC since 1997.

633BALL ST -634 N KENTUCKY
Darrin Horn is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 (Coach of N KENTUCKY)

633BALL ST -634 N KENTUCKY
N KENTUCKY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.

635COLL OF CHARLESTON -636 N CAROLINA
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 71-38 ATS (29.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's College Basketball Odds, Tech Trends

College basketball begins it's 2020-2021 season just one day before Thanksgiving, and what a slate it is.

There are multiple big games to open the college basketball season, with the biggest games of the day listed below.

Check out the odds, information and betting trends for college basketball's top games today.

Wednesday's College Basketball Top Games

East Tennnessee State vs. Abilene Christian (11 a.m., FloSports)
Drake vs. Kansas State (2 p.m., ESPNU)
Bowling Green vs. Michigan (4 p.m., ESPN2)
Saint Mary's vs. Memphis (4:30 p.m., ESPN)
Western Kentucky vs Northern Iowa (4:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Liberty vs. Purdue (6 p.m., CBSSN)
Saint Peter's vs. St. John's (7 p.m., FS2)
Rhode Island vs. Arizona State (7 p.m., ESPN)
West Virginia vs. South Dakota State (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Clemson vs. Mississippi State (8:30 p.m., CBSSN)
Villanova vs. Boston College (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
Utah State vs. VCU (9:30 p.m., ESPN2)
UCLA vs. San Diego State (11 p.m., CBSSN)

Wednesday's College Basketball Odds & Trends

ETSU (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs. Abilene Christian (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: FloSports, 11 a.m.
Venue: Hertz Arena
Location: Estero, Florida
Spread: ETSU -3.5
Moneyline: -
O/U: 136.5
Implied Probability: -

Tech Trends

Coming Soon

Drake (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs Kansas State (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPNU, 2 p.m.
Venue: Bramlage Coliseum
Location: Manhattan, Kansas
Spread: KST -7.5
Moneyline: KST -360 / DRK +275
O/U: 135.5
Implied Probability: Kansas State - 78.3%

Tech Trends

Drake has lost five straight road games.
Kansas State has won eight of its last nine home games when playing on a Wednesday.
Kansas State has lost the second half in four straight games.
Drake has failed to see either team score 78 or more points in seven straight games.

Bowling Green (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) at Michigan (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPNU, 4 p.m.
Venue: Crisler Center
Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Spread: MICH -14
Moneyline: MICH -1430 / BG +800
O/U: 149
Implied Probability: Michigan - 93.5%

Tech Trends

Michigan has won three straight games when facing Bowling Green.
Bowling Green has seen the home team win the second half in seven straight games.
Michigan has won 34 of its last 40 home games.
Bowling Green has lost three straight games.
Bowling Green has scored exactly 57 points in two of its last three games when facing Michigan.

Saint Mary's (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs. Memphis (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPN, 4:30 p.m.
Venue: Sanford Pentagon
Location: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Spread: MEM -4.5
Moneyline: MEM -190 / SMC +155
O/U: 140.5
Implied Probability: Memphis - 65.5%

Tech Trends

Memphis has won two straight games when facing Saint Mary's.
Saint Mary's has won 25 of its last 32 games.
Memphis has won the first half in five of its last six games.
Saint Mary's has won four of its last five games when playing on a neutral court.

Western Kentucky (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs. Northern Iowa (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPNU, 4:30 p.m.
Venue: Sanford Pentagon
Location: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Spread: WKY -2
Moneyline: -
O/U: 145.5
Implied Probability: -

Tech Trends

Coming Soon

Liberty (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) at Purdue (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: CBSSN, 6 p.m.
Venue: Mackey Arena
Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
Spread: PUR -11
Moneyline: PUR -770 / LIB+525
O/U: 123
Implied Probability: Purdue - 88.5%

Tech Trends

Liberty has won 11 of its last 12 games.
Liberty has won six straight games when playing on a neutral court.
Liberty has won the second half in four straight games whenn playing in a neutral court.
Purdue has won three of its last four non-conference regular-season games.
Purdue has lost five of its last seven games.

Saint Peter's (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) at St. John's (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: FS2, 7 p.m.
Venue: Carnesecca Arena
Location: Queens, New York
Spread: STJ -9.5
Moneyline: STJ -530 / STP +390
O/U: 140.5
Implied Probability: St. John's - 84.1%

Tech Trends

St. John's has won three of its last four games.
Saint Peter's has won eight of its last nine games.

Rhode Island (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs. Arizona State (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPN, 7 p.m.
Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Location: Uncasville, Connecticut
Spread: -
Moneyline: -
O/U: -
Implied Probability:

Tech Trends

Coming Soon

West Virginia (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) at South Dakota State (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Venue: Sanford Pentagon
Location: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Spread: WVU -9.5
Moneyline: WVU -530 / SDST +380
O/U: -
Implied Probability: West Virginia - 84.1%

Tech Trends

South Dakota State has won 10 straight games when playing on a Wednesday.
South Dakota State has won the second half in seven straight games.

Clemson (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs. Mississippi State (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: CBSSN, 8:30 p.m.
Venue: Mackey Arena
Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
Spread: CLEM -3.5
Moneyline: CLEM -175 / MSST +140
O/U: 135.5
Implied Probability: Clemson - 63.6%

Tech Trends

Mississippi State has won two of its last three games when facing a school from South Carolina.
Mississippi State has won five of its last six games when playing on a neutral court during a Wednesday.
Mississippi State has won the first half in six straight games when playing on a neutral court during a Wednesday.

Villanova (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs. Boston College (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPN, 9:30 p.m.
Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Location: Uncasville, Connecticut
Spread: NOVA -14.5
Moneyline: NOVA -2000 / BC +950
O/U: 141.5
Implied Probability: Villanova - 95.2%

Tech Trends

Villanova has won four of its last six games when facing Boston College.
Boston College has lost six straight games.
Villanova has won 40 of its last 43 games when playing on a neutral court.
Boston College has lost the second half in seven of its last eight games.

Utah State (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) vs. VCU (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
Venue: Sanford Pentagon
Location: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Spread: -
Moneyline: -
O/U: -
Implied Probability:

Tech Trends

Coming Soon

UCLA (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U) at San Diego State (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U)

TV-Time: CBSSN, 11 p.m.
Venue: Viejas Arena
Location: San Diego, California
Spread: UCLA -2.5
Moneyline: UCLA -148 / SDST +120
O/U: 134
Implied Probability: UCLA - 59.7%

Tech Trends

UCLA has won seven of its last eight games.
San Diego State has won 30 of its last 32 games.
San Diego State has won the second half in six straight home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Villanova vs. Boston College Odds
David Schwab

The Big East’s Villanova Wildcats will square-off against the ACC’s Boston College Eagles this Wednesday in a 9:30 p.m. ET tip at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Location: Uncasville, Connecticut
Date: Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Villanova-Boston College Betting Odds

Spread: Villanova -14
Money-Line: Villanova -2000 Boston College +900
Total: 141.5
Implied Probability: Villanova 95.24%

The Wildcats opened as 13 ½-point favorites for this neutral-site clash. There has been some upward movement to 14 points in early betting with the general betting consensus leaning heavily toward Villanova covering against the spread.

The total line for this game opened at 141 ½ points and it has held steady since being released. Bettors appear to be evenly split on the OVER/UNDER heading into Wednesday’s anticipated tip.

The money line odds for this Big East/ACC matchup is heavy with Villanova listed as a -2000 price at a few operators, meaning a $100 return would net back $5.

Villanova finished last season with a 14-15-2 record ATS. The Wildcats went 10-13-1 ATS closing as favorites and they were 1-2-1 ATS in neutral-site games.

Boston College was 14-18 ATS with a straight-up record of 13-19. The Eagles failed to cover in 14 of 24 games closing as underdogs.

Betting Analysis – Villanova Wildcats

SU: 24-7
ATS: 14-15-2
SU - Home: 13-3
SU - Away: 11-4
O/U: 12-19

Betting Analysis – Boston College Eagles

SU: 13-19
ATS: 14-18
SU - Home: 9-10
SU - Away: 4-9
O/U: 14-17-1

Inside the Stats – Villanova Wildcats

2019-20 stats

PS/G: 73.2 (116th)
PA/G: 66.4 (91st)
Off Rtg: 107.8 (54th)
Def Rtg: 97.8 (134th)
SRS: 16.84 (18th)
SOS: 10.03 (19th)

As one of the top college basketball teams in the nation, Villanova starts the season with the second-best odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament behind the Gonzaga Bulldogs. It ranks third in both major national polls.

The main strength of the Wildcats is their returning lineup. Saddiq Bey left some big shoes to fill. However, the other four starters are in place led by Collin Gillespie as the leading scoring with 15.1 points per game.

The only real weakness could be rust. The late start to the season contributed to the long layoff, so there is always the risk of a slow start.

Inside the Stats – Boston College Eagles

2019-20 stats

PS/G: 64.6 (322nd)
PA/G: 70.6 (211th)
Off Rtg: 92.4 (336th)
Def Rtg: 101.1 (218th)
SRS: 1.82 (142nd)
SOS: 7.86 (51st)

Boston College is on the wrong side of this long-established rivalry with a 24-52 record SU in 76 previous meetings. The last time the Eagles faced Villanova was in the Sweet 16 of the 2006 NCAA Tournament. They lost in overtime 60-59.

As far as this year’s team, Jim Christian may already be on the hot seat entering his seventh season as head coach. An overall record of 75-119 has dialed up the pressure for this campaign.

Losing three starters from last year’s team does not help the situation. BC will turn to sophomore guard Wynston Tabbs as their top scorer from a year ago with 13.9 PPG. Another sophomore guard to watch is Jay Heath, who averaged 13.1 PPG last year.

Key Players to Watch

2019-20 stats

BC - Jay Heath (13.1 ppg)
BC - Steffon Mitchell (7.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg)
NOVA - Collin Gillespie (15.1 ppg, 4.5 apg)
NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (10.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UCLA vs. San Diego State Odds

The Pac-12’s UCLA Bruins will open their season against the Mountain West's San Diego State Aztecs this Wednesday in an 11 p.m. ET tip at Viejas Arena.

Venue: Viejas Arena
Location: San Diego, California
Date: Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Time: 11 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN

UCLA-San Diego State Betting Odds

Spread: UCLA -3.5
Money-Line: UCLA -175 San Diego State +143
Total: 133.5
Implied Probability: UCLA 63.6%

Mick Cronin's Bruins begin the 2020-21 campaign as road favorites, entering a tough environment against a team with Final Four aspirations a year ago. The San Diego State Aztecs are home underdogs, despite winning 30 of their last 32 games. The spread has moved to -2.5 with some sportsbooks, so it appears the public may not be as sold on UCLA as oddsmakers are.

UCLA is coming off a 11-3 SU record to end last year, arguably one of the hottest teams in the country to close out the season. Tyler Campbell is also a contender for the John Wooden Award this season, so it seems justified in the oddsmakers leaning towards Cronin's club. It's worth noting UCLA has lost four of its last five games when facing an inter-state school, which includes losses to Stanford and Cal State Fullerton.

Betting Analysis – UCLA Bruins

SU: 19-12
ATS: 17-13-1
SU - Home: 13-6
SU - Away: 6-6
O/U: 13-17-1-

Betting Analysis – San Diego State Aztecs

SU: 28-1
ATS: 18-10
SU - Home: 15-1
SU - Away: 13-0
O/U: 14-13-1

Inside the Stats – UCLA Bruins

2019-20 stats

PS/G: 65.9 (229th)
PA/G: 67.1 (116th)
Off Rtg: 103.7 (130th)
Def Rtg: 100.1 (190th)
SRS: 9.83 (67th)
SOS: 8.23 (43rd)

UCLA is a favorite to win the Pac-12 this season, after catching fire to end the 2019-20 campaign. It's tough to bet against Mick Cronin, who seems right on track to continue his Cincinnati success in the City of Angels.

What makes the Bruins so dangerous is that they return their top five scorers from a year ago. With the same core in tact, and an offseason to develop more chemistry, the Bruins should see similar success to how they ended the 2019-20 season.

Inside the Stats – San Diego Aztecs

2019-20 stats

PS/G: 74.8 (77th)
PA/G: 59.5 (3rd)
Off Rtg: 113.3 (3rd)
Def Rtg: 90 (10th)
SRS: 18.38 (10th)
SOS: 3.92 (97th)

San Diego State enters the season without two of their top three scorers from a year ago. The most notable is Malachi Flynn, who averaged 17.6 points per game. Also, Yanni Wetzell is gone after averaging 11.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.

Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel will have to carry the load for San Diego State to be successful. It's worth noting that San Diego State is without K.J. Feagin this year, meaning Nathan Mensah and Trey Pulliam will need to step up as well.

Time will tell if San Diego State can stay a top the Mountain West food chain, and what a better way to test your club then against a favored school from a power-five conference. The Aztecs are known for defense, so if they can continue limiting schools to under 60 points per game they should be fine. The offense will be tough to match from a season ago, however (third best rating in country last year).

Key Players to Watch

2019-20 stats

UCLA - Tyger Campbell (8.3 ppg, 5 apg)
UCLA - Chris Smith (13.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
SDST - Matt Mitchell (12.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg)
SDST - Jordan Schakel (10 ppg)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Wednesday, November 25

Drake @ Kansas State
Drake
— 3 starters back from LY’s 20-14 team
— picked 7th in MVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #158 by KenPom, 6th in MVC
— Last year was first time since 1971 Drake won 20 games in back/back years.

Kansas State
— 2 starters back from LY’s 11-21 team
— picked last in Big X by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #114 by KenPom, last in Big X
— Last year was Bruce Weber’s worst year as a head coach.

Old Dominion @ Maryland
Old Dominion
— 4 starters back from LY’s 13-19 team
— picked 6th in C-USA by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #101 by KenPom, 3rd in C-USA
— LY was Jones’ first losing year at ODU.
— Monarchs have good guards, are expected to bounce back this year.

Maryland
— 3 starters back from LY’s 24-7 team
— picked 10th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #51 by KenPom, 11th in Big 14
— Terps tied for Big 14 title LY; they’re not as talented now.

Toledo @ Bradley
Toledo
— 3 starters back from LY’s 17-15 team
— picked 4th in MAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #128 by KenPom, 2nd in MAC
— Last year was Toledo’s worst since 2013.
— They’re deeper this year, should be better on offense.

Bradley
— 2 starters back from LY’s 23-11 team
— picked 3rd in MVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #126 by KenPom, 3rd in MVC
— Bradley won the MVC tournament last year.
— Braves are good up front, have ?’s at guard.

Oklahoma State @ Tex-Arlington
Oklahoma State
— 1 starter back from LY’s 18-14 team
— picked 8th in Big X by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #35 by KenPom, 7th in Big X
— Cowboys can’t go to NCAA’s this year; probstion.
— Cunningham is one of nation’s best freshmen; he’s so good they hired his brother as an assistant coach. Go figure.

Tex-Arlington
— 3 starters back from LY’s 14-18 team
— picked 8th in Sun Belt by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #159 by KenPom, 4th in Sun Belt
— UTA shot 30.4% on arc LY, were small inside. No bueno.
— How did they get Oklahoma State to come on road for opener?

Charleston @ North Carolina
Charleston
— 1 starter back from LY’s 17-14 team
— picked 3rd in CAA by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #176 by KenPom, 4th in CAA
— More balanced this year; will transfers step up?
— Won 17 games LY, after 75 wins previous three years.

North Carolina
— 3 starters back from LY’s 14-19 team
— picked 3rd in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #22 by KenPom, 4th in ACC
— Last year was Roy Williams’ first losing season.
— Solid inside; who will replace Anthony at the point?

Hofstra vs Monmouth
Hofstra
— Coach Mihalich took a leave of absence; they have an interim coach.
— 3 starters back from LY’s 26-8 team
— picked 2nd in CAA by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #153 by KenPom, 1st in CAA
— Hofstra won their first CAA tourney last year.

Monmouth
— 2 starters back from LY’s 18-13 team
— picked 2nd in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #182 by KenPom, 2nd in MAAC
— Four senior starters, but point guard is new.
— Supposedly have an impressive freshman class.

— Hofstra beat Monmouth last three years, by 1-2-20 points.

South Dakota vs Colorado (@ Kansas State)
— South Dakota has 1 starter back from LY’s 20-12 team
— picked 2nd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #208 by KenPom, 5th in Summit

— Lost five of top six scorers from LY.
— Can 4 JC kids, 3 redshirts fill the void?

— Colorado has 3 starters back from LY’s 21-11 team
— picked 6th in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #62 by KenPom, 8th in Pac-12.
— Have senior PG, but lost Tyler Bey to NBA.
— Were #3 in country in minutes continuity LY.

Georgia State @ Georgia Tech
— Georgia State has 4 starters back from LY’s 19-13 team
— picked 2nd in Sun Belt by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #108 by KenPom, 1st in Sun Belt
— Whole backcourt from last year returns.
— How good are the new guys up front?

— Georgia Tech has 4 starters back from LY’s 17-14 team
— picked 6th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #72 by KenPom, 11th in ACC
— Has one of ACC’s best returning backcourts.
— Popular wisdom: its a good year to have an experienced team.

Cal-Irvine vs Pepperdine (@ San Diego)
— Cal-Irvine has 1 starter back from LY’s 21-11 team
— picked 2nd in Big West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #122 by KenPom, 2nd in Big West.

— Anteaters played in last two NCAA tourneys.
— Irvine lost 77-73 at Pepperdine last year.

— Pepperdine has 4 starters back from LY’s 16-16 team
— picked 4th in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #106 by KenPom, 5th in WCC
— Waves have a very good senior point guard.
— Deeper, more athletic than they’ve been recently.

UCLA @ San Diego State
— UCLA has all 5 starters back from LY’s 19-12 team
— Bruins are picked 2nd in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— UCLA is ranked #29 by KenPom, 3rd in Pac-12.
— Bruins won 11 of last 14 games LY, after a 7-9 start.
— UCLAS is expected to compete for the Pac-12 title.

— San Diego State has 2 starters back from LY’s 30-2 team
— picked 2nd in Mountain West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #44 by KenPom, 1st in Mountain West
— Aztecs poached grad transfer PG Gomez from Northridge.
— 8 of San Diego State’s 12 scholarship guys are juniors/seniors.

Montana State @ UNLV
— Montana State has 3 starters back from LY’s 16-15 team
— picked 4th in Big Sky by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #220 by KenPom, 5th in Big Sky
— Bobcats have a new point guard this year.
— Will try to play faster this year.

— UNLV has 2 starters back from LY’s 17-15 team
— picked 3rd in Mountain West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #119 by KenPom, 5th in Mountain West
— Rebels have new PG, very good transfer from South Dakota State.
— UNLV won six of its last seven games LY.

Clemson vs Mississippi State (Melbourne, FL)
— Clemson has 4 starters back from LY’s 16-15 team
— picked 8th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #40 by KenPom, 8th in ACC.
— Tigers are expected to be in the NCAAs this year.
— Clemson’s best player is a 6-8 senior who passed up NBA Draft.

— Mississippi State has 2 starters back from LY’s 20-11 team
— picked 10th in SEC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #77 by KenPom, 12th in SEC
— Need transfers to be good in order to maintain success.
— won 68 games the last three years.

North Dakota State vs Nevada
— North Dakota State has 2 starters back from LY’s 25-8 team
— picked 3rd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #175 by KenPom, 2nd in Summit.
— Won Summit tourney LY.
— Bison are rebuilding a little after LY’s 25-8 team.

— Nevada has 1 starter back from LY’s 19-12 team
— picked 6th in Mountain West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #120 by KenPom, 6th in Mountain West
— Lost five of top six scorers from last year.
— Young players have to contribute quickly.