Service Plays Sunday 11/29/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

NYJ +7
MIA @ NYJ | 11/29 | 1:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 7:11 PM
The Jets have been competitive in their last few games as the offense gets healthier and healthier, and there's a chance they'll have Sam Darnold back for this game. That makes them a massive value play at +7 against a Dolphins offense that has not looked good despite putting together a five-game win streak before Sunday's loss in Denver. Teams have been able to run all over the Dolphins, but a mediocre Broncos passing attack had no issues carving them up last week either. With Tua Tagovailoa struggling enough to get benched in-game for performance reasons, this has a great chance of being the Jets' first win of the season.

31-23-3 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +525
19-15-2 IN LAST 36 NYJ ATS PICKS | +252

2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS | +90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
10:19 AM

CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST
OVER 48.5
Each of these teams is loaded with offensive playmakers, but has a shaky defense. This total is about a touchdown low. The Over is cashing in more than 60 percent of my simulations.

+305 12-8-2 IN LAST 22 NFL PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Utah at Arizona State, which was pushed back to Sunday, has now been called off

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

ARI -2.5
ARI @ NE | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST9:36 PM
The Cardinals had a bit of a letdown last Thursday at Seattle because of their dramatic win over Buffalo. They'll bounce back this week. The Patriots run the ball well but that's it. Arizona can handle that. Kyler Murray will be too much for New England.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
5-4-1 IN LAST 10 ARI ATS PICKS | +49

NYJ +7
MIA @ NYJ | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST8:54 PM
The Jets have covered three of their last four games and they'll face a Miami team that could be missing two starting offensive linemen. No. 2 receiver Preston Williams is definitely out. This might be New York's best remaining shot for a win. Grab the points.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
8-2 IN LAST 10 NYJ ATS PICKS | +580

10-6 IN LAST 16 MIA ATS PICKS | +340

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

SF +7
SF @ LAR | 11/29 | 4:05 PM EST2:49 PM
The bye week was a blessing -- not in disguise -- for the 49ers, with about 30 players landing on injured lists this season. This opponent is another blessing; though the Rams are in Super Bowl contention, they have dropped three straight to San Francisco. L.A. is far less rested, having returned home from their fifth East Coast commute this year after a Monday night win over Tampa Bay. The Niners have covered in seven of the last 10 as underdogs.

18-11 IN LAST 29 LAR ATS PICKS | +571

NYG -5.5
NYG @ CIN | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST2:45 PM
Not long ago, it would have been unimaginable for the Giants to be granting so many points. But they have won two in a row, mainly with stingy defense, while Cincy has gone south with the injury to QB Joe Burrow and five losses in six games. Entering from the bullpen: Ryan Finley, 0-3 as a starter in his career, losing by a combined 49 points. The Giants have covered their last four games and are solid roadies, with a 21-7 ATS record dating to 2017.

14-4-1 IN LAST 19 CIN ATS PICKS | +956

11-8 IN LAST 19 NYG ATS PICKS | +198

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 1:00PM
257 CLE -0.5(-120) William Hill vs 258 JAC double-dime bet

Analysis: A lot of locals have not put this game up, but BOL and all the domestic shops such as Fanduel, WHill, and DK have it available right now. Green Bay is good in a teaser as long as it's 2.5 or less.


2* 6 PT TEASER Browns -0.5/Packers -1.5 -120


Throw out the Jags week one win against Indy, where they were statistically dominated but managed a win, and we would be talking about this Jags team as a historically bad team along with the Jets. I make this game Cleveland -8.5 and strongly lean towards them ATS as well.


The Jags are even worse then their season long stats would indicate. QB Jake Luton, if he starts, is a downgrade on Gardner Minshew (and Minshew is one of the leagues worst starting quarterbacks). Injuries have recently dismantled an already bad roster. Pro bowl caliber LG Andrew Norwell and DE Josh Allen are the latest injuries, adding to a list of injured starters that already included WR Laviska Shenault, TE James O'Shaugnessy, CB CJ Henderson and CB Sidney Jones.


Green Bay is 5-0 SUATS off a loss under Matt Lafleur, and with this defense being able to put shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander on Allen Robinson, Chicago lacks the complementary pieces to their offense needed to get the leagues 31st ranked offense going. And this offense is regressing, as they have been held to 3, 5, 4.8, and 4.6 YPP in their last four games (league average is 5.7).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 4:25PM
271 KAN / 272 TAM OVER 54.0 Westgatedouble-dime bet

Analysis: I will start this off with an excerpt from my Chiefs/Ravens over write up from earlier in the season. I think the matchup and situation is very similar for the Chiefs in this game.


"The logic is simple on this over: When you force an all time great quarterback into urgent situations, his aggressiveness and production is going to skyrocket. What other explanation is there for the fact that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to six consecutive victories when trailing by at least 10 points at any time during the game?"



Tampa Bay's offense has struggled against top tier pass rushes such as the Saints, Rams, and Bears, but that has not been the case against weaker pass rushes and their offense is more then capable of putting the Chiefs offense into situations where offensive urgency is needed, just like the Raiders did last week in a game in a game that finished with 66 points. The Chiefs defense does not look right, and most importantly against Vegas they couldn’t put any pressure on the quarterback, important against arguably the leagues most pressure sensitive quarterback in Tom Brady. If given time against this Chiefs secondary, there are matchup edges all over the field to exploit.


The Bucs defense is an obvious pass funnel, ranking first in the NFL in YPC allowed in run defense but in pass defense they recently allowed big games to Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and Daniel Jones. They play a defensive style nearly identical to the Ravens, who are heavy on agressive man coverage and blitzing (Ravens rank first in blitz rate, Tampa is second). Mahomes in that game against Baltimore went 31 of 42 for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns.


Quite simply, I believe this number is short. Both pass defenses are recently playing below expectation, and both quarterbacks have plus matchups against the style of defenses they are facing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren Sharp

257 Cleveland Browns Over 47.5 (0.75 units)
___
263 LA Chargers Over 52 (1 unit)

[dawggy]

JOHN RYAN



John Ryan 5% NFL Best Bet Titan
Game: (269) San Francisco 49ers at (270) Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020
5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.
My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.
The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.
The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.
Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.
Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan

[kajok]

Alan Scozzari

Guaranteed A Wager
Italy Serie A
Cagliari 0 -0,5 -110

Tip of the day A Wager
Germany 2. Bundesliga
Nurnberg - Greuther Furth
UNDER 2,5 3 -110

[dawggy]

RALPH MICHAELS




Game: (263) Los Angeles Chargers at (264) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Buffalo Bills -4.5 (-110)

#264 5% Buffalo -4.5 LA Chargers 1 PM ET
Impressed with Herbert as he’s putting up points on the scoreboard but winning is s a different matter. Herbert has started the L9 games and they are 2-7 with the wins both at home vs Jacksonville and the NY Jets.
Game: (251) Las Vegas Raiders at (252) Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Teaser Atlanta Falcons +9.0 (-125)/ Rams -1/2

4% TWO TEAM 6-pt Teaser
Atlanta +9/ LA Rams -½ pt
Game: (269) San Francisco 49ers at (270) Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 44.5 (-110)

##269/#270 3% UNDER 44.5 SF/ LA Rams 4:05 PM

[golden contender]

Sunday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 headlining along with the Sunday night Total of the Year, a rare 6* with a 15-0 system and a 22-1 Early Play along with NCAAB and Soccer. NFL Comp play below


The NFL Comp Play is on Cleveland at 1:00 eastern. The Jaguars are in the nasty database system below that shows how poorly dogs of more than 6 do on grass vs opponents who do well running the ball. The Jags are 0-9 to the spread at home after 2 or more turnovers and a dog loss. The Browns are 7-3 and should do well here against a shoddy Jags defense. Look for Cleveland to cover. On Sunday a massive card is up an executive Level TIER 1 Play, the Sunday night Total of the Year, a 22-1 early play, a rare 15-0 6* in later afternoon and NCAAB and Soccer. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out on Sunday. For the Comp play. Go with the Browns. Rob V- GC Sports.



SU: 1-41-0
ATS: 7-34-1

Oct 26, 2014 view Sunday 8 2014 Raiders Browns away 0-6 6-3 0-0 7-14 13-23 7.0 44.0 -10 -3.0 -8.0 -5.5 -2.5 L L U 0
Oct 26, 2014 view Sunday 8 2014 Rams Chiefs away 7-0 0-10 0-10 0-14 7-34 7.0 44.0 -27 -20.0 -3.0 -11.5 8.5 L L U 0
Nov 09, 2014 view Sunday 10 2014 Jaguars Cowboys neutral 7-10 0-14 0-7 10-0 17-31 7.0 45.5 -14 -7 2.5 -2.2 4.8 L L O 0
Nov 30, 2014 view Sunday 13 2014 Titans Texans away 0-14 0-10 14-7 7-14 21-45 7.0 43.0 -24 -17.0 23.0 3.0 20.0 L L O 0
Dec 21, 2014 view Sunday 16 2014 Cardinals Seahawks home 0-0 3-14 3-0 0-21 6-35 9.5 36.5 -29 -19.5 4.5 -7.5 12.0 L L O 0
Oct 04, 2015 view Sunday 4 2015 Fortyniners Packers home 0-7 3-0 0-10 0-0 3-17 7.5 48.0 -14 -6.5 -28.0 -17.2 -10.8 L L U 0
Oct 11, 2015 view Sunday 5 2015 Rams Packers away 0-14 10-0 0-7 0-3 10-24 9.0 45.5 -14 -5.0 -11.5 -8.2 -3.2 L L U 0
Nov 22, 2015 view Sunday 11 2015 Washington Panthers away 14-14 0-17 0-10 2-3 16-44 7.5 45.5 -28 -20.5 14.5 -3.0 17.5 L L O 0
Dec 13, 2015 view Sunday 14 2015 Falcons Panthers away 0-21 0-7 0-10 0-0 0-38 8.5 45.5 -38 -29.5 -7.5 -18.5 11.0 L L U 0
Sep 18, 2016 view Sunday 2 2016 Fortyniners Panthers away 3-7 7-10 0-14 17-15 27-46 13.0 45.0 -19 -6.0 28.0 11.0 17.0 L L O 0
Oct 09, 2016 view Sunday 5 2016 Browns Patriots home 7-16 0-7 0-7 6-3 13-33 10.5 47.5 -20 -9.5 -1.5 -5.5 4.0 L L U 0
Nov 06, 2016 view Sunday 9 2016 Browns Cowboys home 3-7 7-14 0-14 0-0 10-35 7.5 47.5 -25 -17.5 -2.5 -10.0 7.5 L L U 0
Jan 01, 2017 view Sunday 17 2016 Dolphins Patriots home 0-14 7-6 7-7 0-8 14-35 9.0 47.0 -21 -12.0 2.0 -5.0 7.0 L L O 0
Sep 17, 2017 view Sunday 2 2017 Browns Ravens away 0-7 7-14 3-0 0-3 10-24 8.0 39.0 -14 -6 -5.0 -5.5 0.5 L L U 0
Oct 29, 2017 view Sunday 8 2017 Fortyniners Eagles away 0-3 0-14 7-10 3-6 10-33 13.0 44.0 -23 -10 -1 -5.5 4.5 L L U 0
Nov 05, 2017 view Sunday 9 2017 Broncos Eagles away 3-17 6-14 0-13 14-7 23-51 7.5 43.5 -28 -20.5 30.5 5.0 25.5 L L O 0
Nov 19, 2017 view Sunday 11 2017 Browns Jaguars home 0-7 7-3 0-0 0-9 7-19 7.5 37.5 -12 -4.5 -11.5 -8.0 -3.5 L L U 0
Nov 26, 2017 view Sunday 12 2017 Bears Eagles away 0-7 0-17 3-0 0-7 3-31 14.0 43.5 -28 -14.0 -9.5 -11.8 2.2 L L U 0
Dec 03, 2017 view Sunday 13 2017 Colts Jaguars away 0-7 3-9 7-11 0-3 10-30 10.5 40.5 -20 -9.5 -0.5 -5.0 4.5 L L U 0
Dec 23, 2017 view Saturday 16 2017 Packers Vikings home 0-10 0-0 0-3 0-3 0-16 9.0 41.0 -16 -7.0 -25 -16.0 -9.0 L L U 0
Dec 24, 2017 view Sunday 16 2017 Buccaneers Panthers away 3-3 6-9 7-3 3-7 19-22 9.5 46.5 -3 6.5 -5.5 0.5 -6.0 L W U 0
Dec 25, 2017 view Monday 16 2017 Raiders Eagles away 0-7 7-0 3-3 0-9 10-19 9.5 44.5 -9 0.5 -15.5 -7.5 -8.0 L W U 0
Oct 21, 2018 view Sunday 7 2018 Fortyniners Rams home 0-3 7-19 3-10 0-7 10-39 10.0 52.5 -29 -19 -3.5 -11.2 7.8 L L U 0
Dec 09, 2018 view Sunday 14 2018 Buccaneers Saints home 7-0 7-3 0-8 0-17 14-28 9.5 54.5 -14 -4.5 -12.5 -8.5 -4.0 L L U 0
Dec 16, 2018 view Sunday 15 2018 Buccaneers Ravens away 0-0 9-10 3-7 0-3 12-20 8.0 44.5 -8 0.0 -12.5 -6.2 -6.2 L P U 0
Sep 15, 2019 view Sunday 2 2019 Cardinals Ravens away 3-7 3-10 3-0 8-6 17-23 13.0 42.5 -6 7.0 -2.5 2.2 -4.8 L W U 0
Oct 31, 2019 view Thursday 9 2019 Cardinals Fortyniners home 7-7 0-14 7-7 11-0 25-28 8.0 44.0 -3 5 9 7.0 2.0 L W O 0
Nov 17, 2019 view Sunday 11 2019 Cardinals Fortyniners away 9-0 7-10 3-7 7-19 26-36 10.5 45.5 -10 0.5 16.5 8.5 8.0 L W O 0
Jan 11, 2020 view Saturday 19 2019 Vikings Fortyniners away 7-7 3-7 0-10 0-3 10-27 7.0 44.5 -17 -10.0 -7.5 -8.8 1.2 L L U 0
Jan 11, 2020 view Saturday 19 2019 Titans Ravens away 7-0 7-6 14-0 0-6 28-12 9.5 47.5 16 25.5 -7.5 9.0 -16.5 W W U 0
Sep 20, 2020 view Sunday 2 2020 Washington Cardinals away 0-14 0-6 3-0 12-10 15-30 7.0 46.5 -15 -8.0 -1.5 -4.8 3.2 L L U 0
Sep 20, 2020 view Sunday 2 2020 Jaguars Titans away 7-14 3-10 7-6 13-3 30-33 7.5 44.0 -3 4.5 19.0 11.8 7.2 L W O 0
Sep 27, 2020 view Sunday 3 2020 Washington Browns away 7-0 0-17 13-0 0-17 20-34 7.0 45.0 -14 -7.0 9.0 1.0 8.0 L L O 0
Oct 11, 2020 view Sunday 5 2020 Washington Rams home 7-6 3-14 0-3 0-7 10-30 8.5 45.0 -20 -11.5 -5 -8.2 3.2 L L U 0
Nov 08, 2020 view Sunday 9 2020 Bears Titans away 0-3 0-7 0-7 17-7 17-24 6.5 46.5 -7 -0.5 -5.5 -3.0 -2.5 L L U 0

Nov 29, 2020 view Sunday 12 2020 Jaguars Browns home 7.0 49.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI
4.5-Star Jets +7 over Dolphins -
4-Star Packers -9.5 over Bear
4.5-Star Giants at Bengals OVER 42.5
4.5-Star Chargers at Bills Over 53 -
4-Star Chiefs at Bucs UNDER 53 -
4-Star Arizona at Patriots Over 49.5 -

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI 5*

titans / colts under 52

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NY Post
Dunleavy (22-11) Mia -7; Sea -5; Pit -4.5
Serby (20-12-1) Gia -5; Jets +7; Ten +4
Kussoy (19-14) Hou -2.5; Dal -3; Min -4.5

Loftis (10-23) Gia -5; Min -4.5; Cle -6.5
Schwartz (10-21-2) Dal-3; Buf -6; Pit -4.5
Cannizzaro (13-20) Det +2.5; Dal -3; Pit -4.5
Blezow (13-17-3) Gia -5; LAC +6; Cle -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NY Daily News
P. Leonard (9-2) Ari -2.5
K. Wagner (9-2) GB -7.5
T. Biersdorfer (8-2-1) KC -3
A. Clayton (7-4) KC -3
W. Pakutka (7-4) Cle -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colin Cowherd Blazing 5 (25-29-1)
Buf -6
Gia -5.5
Ten +4
Chi +9.5
Sea -6

[rocky57]

Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider Sunday Night Football
Bears vs Packers

NFL
Best Bet - Bears/Packers Under 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

2* KC/TB 1H OVER 26.5
1* SF +7.5
1* SF/LAR UNDER 46.5
.5* Cle -6.5
.5* LAC/Buf OVER 53

[citybeat]

OSKEIM SPORTS



All Football Plays
Game: (257) Cleveland Browns at (258) Jacksonville Jaguars
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 49.0 (-110)

This game falls into very strong 30-5 ATS and 21-3 ATS totals systems of mine that invest on the OVER in games involving one team with a point differential of minus-7 or worse versus opponents that have allowed seventeen points or less in three consecutive games. Cleveland should be able to move the chains at will against a porous Jacksonville defense that is ranked 31st in the league in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA.

Cleveland's offense is ranked 19th in Pass DVOA but that rating is grossly misleading in that the Browns played two games against the Raiders and Texans in conditions that were approximately 18 points below average conditions combined. Cleveland's offensive line has performed well this season, ranking 1st in Second Level Yards (1.62), 3rd in Running Back Yards (5.15), 3rd in Open Field Yards (1.10) and 10th in Adjusted Sack Rate (5.4%).

Cleveland's offensive line allowed just two pressures on 22 pass-block snaps against Houston in Week 9 and should dominate the trenches against a Jacksonville front seven that is dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate (3.5%). Despite playing in terrible weather twice this season, Baker Mayfield is 14th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR (71.3) and he should have a solid day against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Browns are 16-5 OVER in road games versus teams allowing 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt, including 7-0 OVER in the second half of the season.

Jacksonville is averaging 26.15 seconds per play, which is the 6th fastest pace in the NFL this season. And the Jaguars have the opportunity to exploit a subpar Cleveland secondary that is ranked 20th in Pass DVOA despite playing the 28th easiest schedule. The Browns will be without their top defensive player for a second consecutive game as defensive end Myles Garrett was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list last week. Garrett had been leading the NFL with 9.5 sacks and his absence gives Jacksonville a fighting chance to move the chains.

Jacksonville is 17-6 OVER after scoring six points or less in its previous game and 10-2 OVER at home following a double-digit home loss. With Cleveland standing at 8-1 OVER in road affairs off one or more consecutive UNDERS since 2017, take the OVER and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ultra sports 11/29

new england
indianapolis
buffalo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

NFL - 4* Game 252 - Falcons (+3) - NFL GOW
Edges - Falcons: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS versus AFC West opponents, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog; and head coach Raheem Morris 14-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a loss … Raiders: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 1-9 SUATS versus losing opponents; and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away off a loss when facing NFC South opponents … We cement the call with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any sub .850 NFL single-digit road favorite off one loss-exact that was preceded by a 3-0 SUATS win streak if they are facing a foe coming off a loss of 14 or more points if the foe won 8 or fewer games last season. That’s because these deflated road favorites are 0-15-1 ATS in this role since 1980. In addition our powerful database note that NFL home dogs who started the season 0-4 are 10-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs from Game Five out when coming off a SU and double digit ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 10 points when facing an opponent that surrendered 20 or more points in its previous game. With that, recommend a strong 4* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.

NFL - 3* Game 269 - Forty Niners (+7)
Edges - 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan 15-7 ATS away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points, including 6-0 ATS the last six; and Shanahan 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from Game Eleven out away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points … Rams: Head coach Sean McVay 8-15-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins, including 0-5 SUATS the last five, and McVay 4-13-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins when not favored by 9 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in division games … Our powerful database seals it with these two winning angles - 1) NFL division favorites of 2 or more points coming off a Monday Night SU underdog win are 0-15-1 ATS since 1993 when facing a foe whose team net YPR (Yards Per Rush) is positive; and 2) NFL dogs on a 0-3 SUATS exact streak are 10-5 SU and 11-4 when coming off a Bye week since 1980, including 5-0 SUATS from Game Seven out … With the Niners rested and getting key injured starters back in the lineup today, we recommend a strong 3* play on San Francisco 49ers. Thank you and good luck as always.

NFL - 3* Game 272 - Buccaneers (+3.5)
Edges - Bucs: QB Tom Brady 14-1 ATS career as a dog off a loss, including 10-0 ATS against foes coming off a win; and head coach Bruce Arians is 10-1 SUATS in his NFL career as a non-division home dog, including 8-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win as well as 6-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss … Chiefs: 1-6 ATS all-time as a favorite versus NFC South opponents, including 0-4 ATS when KC is coming off a win … With Brady 3-0 SUATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss, we recommend a 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ESPN Chalk
NFL Week 12 best bets: Picks for every Sunday game
By ESPN Betting Insiders

Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (2-5 last week, 12-23 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-6, 24-40), Anita Marks (5-3, 38-56-1), Preston Johnson (0-2, 11-18), Mike Clay (0-1, 11-10) and Tyler Fulghum (1-6, 27-40-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (1-4, 20-14), Seth Walder (3-2, 36-18) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (3-1, 24-33-1) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's slate.

Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 53.5)

Bearman: Overs hit on 59% of games through the first four weeks of the season, but over the past seven weeks it has been 50-50. That does not seem to matter to these two teams. Seven straight Chargers games have gone over the total, and L.A. is 7-2 since Justin Herbert took over as the starter. The Chargers' totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62, respectively, for an average of 60.1 points per game.


Not only are the Chargers scoring in bunches, but the defense isn't stopping anyone either. They've allowed at least 28 points to the past seven opponents, including the lowly Jets, who scored four touchdowns against them last week. Meanwhile, the over is 8-2 in Bills games this season, tied for the highest mark in the league. The Bills were involved in back-to-back shootouts with Arizona and Seattle and have a defense ranked in the bottom half of the league. If both teams hit their season averages, they are already at the total, so factor in both defenses not playing well and you have makings of a 30-27 game.

Pick: Over 53.5

Fortenbaugh: Buffalo is coming off its bye week and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, the Chargers are making their second trip to the Eastern Time Zone in three weeks. Allow me to flash some trends in order to demonstrate the gravity of the situation the Bolts are facing in Week 12: First, rookie quarterbacks who play for California teams are 1-14 straight up when playing in the Eastern Time Zone since the merger. Second, the Chargers are 1-9 straight-up and 0-10 against the spread over their past 10 games when facing an opponent coming off the bye. Lay it with Buffalo and don't look back.

Pick: Bills -5.5

Walder: Normally I find myself liking longest reception unders, but this Mike Williams over really stuck out to me. Williams' reputation as a deep-ball, contested catch receiver is backed up by the numbers. Among wideouts with 125 routes run, Williams ranks ninth in depth 3 seconds after the snap and seventh in air yards per target. To be fair, there's reasonable concern about a potential lack of volume here; his 18% target rate is below average but hardly disastrous (77th out of 110 qualifying receivers). But I'm OK with that for two reasons: this is a pretty low line for a deep threat, and Williams takes advantage of his opportunities at an above average rate. Williams has recorded a completion percentage substantially over expectation in all three seasons after his rookie year (spanning a QB change, too), so it's quite apparent he makes more catches than an average receiver would given the targets he does receive.

Pick: Williams longest reception over 20.5 yards (-115)

Miami Dolphins (-7, 44) at New York Jets

Johnson: Before we all get up in arms over Brian Flores' decision to bench Tua Tagovailoa for Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday in Denver, Flores has already made it clear that Tua will be the quarterback for Miami in Week 12. What was interesting about how the offense struggled was that it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Humble brag here, but I was preaching it all week. In Tua's first two starts against the Rams and Cardinals, the Dolphins were outgained by nearly 500 yards, despite going 2-0. Do you know how hard it is to win games despite being outgained so massively? It's not sustainable. Tua showed flashes in those three weeks, but the offense was far from effective. The Dolphins followed with a game against the Chargers in which they started six of their possessions in Chargers territory.

Now it seems like the market is catching up, and, because it's Joe Flacco and the Jets on the other side, everyone rushed to bet the under at 46 earlier this week. I'm not sure it's the right side, however. For starters, it's still the Jets on defense. If Tua is going to find success, a defense that ranks 31st in success rate against the pass is a great candidate. On the other hand, as much as I hate to put some stock into this, Flacco led this Jets offense to 27 points against the Patriots and 28 in Los Angeles against the Chargers. The Jets' pass protection has improved, and Flacco has taken advantage of opportunities through the air, especially with the deep ball (hashtag things I didn't think I would type this season).

The weather looks to be good, and my projection is spot on with where the market opened this one at 46. With 44 and 45 being relatively key landing spots for game totals in this range, at this point, I'd look to play against the move over the total of 44.

Pick: Over 44

Marks: Regardless who starts at quarterback for the Dolphins, they will be in a much better situation than Sam Darnold, who is expected to start this week for the Jets. NY's offensive line is dealing with a plethora of injuries, specifically at right tackle. Meanwhile, Miami gets DT Christian Wilkins back from the COVID-19 list.

The Dolphins are coming off a disappointing loss to Denver in Week 12, but they are still in the postseason hunt. I expect Brian Flores to have his guys ready to beat the 0-10 Jets, and DeVante Parker should take full advantage of the Jets secondary.

Pick: Parker scores and Dolphins win (+190 at DraftKings)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 51.5)

Walder: This line surprised me. FPI considers the Titans and Colts to be almost identical in overall strength -- 1.3 and 0.9 points above average per game on a neutral field, respectively -- though they get there in very different ways. And I'm guessing that's what's driving this difference. The Colts have been the better team, efficiency-wise, this season. But that has been fueled by their defense, while the Titans have the far superior offense. The latter is more repeatable, and that's what gives FPI its confidence that these teams are equal going forward. In addition, the Titans' passing offense is particularly good -- it ranks third in EPA per pass play -- so I think there's even more upside for this run-heavy unit if it decides to take advantage of that passing attack more.

Add in a 2020 weakened home-field advantage and the Titans seem like value getting more than a field goal.

Pick: Titans +3.5

Fortenbaugh: Since 2000, when teams meet two weeks after their first matchup, the team that emerged victorious in the first encounter has gone 7-17-1 against the spread in the rematch. That's the daunting task facing the Colts, who will look to defeat division-rival Tennessee for the second time in 17 days on Sunday. The Colts are coming off that monster win over Green Bay, so I wouldn't be surprised to see public money show up in support of Philip Rivers and company. Remember, Tennessee is 3-1 on the road this season.

Pick: Titans +3.5

Marks: Michael Pittman Jr. has become the man in the Colts' wide receiving corps, leading in targets, catches and yards over the last three weeks. His first game against the Titans, he put up over 100 receiving yards, and last week he posted 66 and a touchdown against the Packers.

Pick: Pittman over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)

New York Giants (-5.5, 42.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Marks: The Giants are 5-0 ATS as a road underdog this season, and every week Daniel Jones and the offense get better. They have scored on 70% of their red zone possessions over the past three games, and Jones has limited his turnovers. The Giants are coming off a bye with a rested, physical and underrated defense heading to the Queen's City. And the Bengals will be handing over quarterback duties to Brandon Allen, who struggled in three starts last season, completing under 50% of his passes and tossing only three touchdowns. Lay the points.

Pick: Giants -5.5

Marks: Since Devonta Freeman went on IR, Wayne Gallman has been the lead back for the Giants, rushing 54 times for 199 yards over his last four games. He has a juicy matchup against a Bengals rush defense that has allowed more runs of 15 to 20 yards per carry than any other team over the last month.

Pick: Gallman over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 49.5) at New England Patriots

Bearman: I can't seem to get a Patriots game right this year (faded them two weeks ago vs. the Ravens and took the Patriots last week in their loss in Houston), but I am sure of this: The Cardinals are a much better team here, and laying less than a FG has value. Arizona has 10 days' rest since losing to Seattle in a tight back-and-forth game and should be able to move the ball against a leaky New England defense. The Patriots have had trouble against mobile QBs this season, with Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes all having the ability to create mismatches and move the ball vs. them. They did limit Lamar Jackson, but you have to wonder how much the weather played a part in that one. They had no answers last week for Watson, who had 380 yards from scrimmage and three total TDs and moved the ball at will.

The Pats are allowing 6.2 yards per play (30th in the NFL) and 8.4 pass yards per play (last in the NFL). Now they get the league's top offense, as Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are averaging 414.3 yards per game. The Cards are in the thick of the NFC West race and need this win with the Rams on deck.

The Patriots' postseason chances took a big hit in Houston, and betting against Bill Belichick as a home 'dog (13-3 ATS) isn't always advised. But if you have watched both teams this season, you wouldn't be afraid here. As far as traveling east and playing at 1 p.m. on Sunday? The Kliff Kingsbury/Murray squad is 5-2 ATS in these spots.

Pick: Cardinals -2.5

Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 49) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Bearman: No one wakes up and says, "Man, I want to lay a TD on the road with the Browns." In fact, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, you couldn't have done that anytime recently as this is the largest road spread the Browns have had since Bill Belichick was on Cleveland's sideline in 1995. And none of the trends support it either, as Baker Mayfield is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite and the Browns had failed to cover in four straight before knocking off the Eagles last week. However, that doesn't mean they haven't played well, and, remember, it is the Jaguars on the other sideline.

Playing in bad weather conditions the past three weeks, the Browns have struggled to score (38 total points) but have also played great defense (allowed only 40). The Jags upset the Colts in Week 1, lost at the buzzer in Week 2 to Tennessee and haven't done much since, losing nine straight. The silver lining of keeping it close vs. the Packers and Texans disappeared in a blowout loss to the Steelers last week. The QB carousel music now stops at Mike Glennon, who is making his first start since 2017 with the Bears (is there anyone who hasn't started for the Bears?). I don't see the Jaguars accomplishing much here, but I don't feel comfortable laying a TD with the Browns either. I will be playing the Browns in eliminator pools and teasing them close to a pick 'em.

Bearman: Browns -.5 in a teaser with Packers -2.5

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 48.5)

Schatz: What we have here are two teams that have been better than their win-loss records indicate. The Vikings have gotten a lot more attention for the possibility they'll make some kind of late-season run at a playoff spot, but Carolina has been surprisingly competitive. The Vikings and Panthers are right next to each other in our DVOA ratings, ranking 16th and 17th, respectively. Teddy Bridgewater was very close to starting last week and should be healthy enough to take the reins again for the Panthers in this game, while star receiver Adam Thielen might miss the game for the Vikings due to COVID-19.

Pick: Panthers +4

Walder: Curtis Samuel is hot, scoring touchdowns in three of his last four games and recording his two highest receiving games in his last three games. But that recency appears to be leading to an inflated line. Samuel's expected completed air yards per game -- based on NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion percent this season age model -- is under 22, less than half this line. While it's true that his catch rate is well above expectation this season (+10%), that is not a norm for him in his career, so I'd expect that to come back to Earth a bit. The only other concern would be Samuel's YAC (especially as a former running back), but over his career he hovers right around his expected YAC totals and this year is averaging 4.3 yards of YAC when an average receiver would have earned 4.8 based on the catches he made.

Pick: Samuel under 48.5 receiving yards (-115)

Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 55.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Kezirian: I have been pitiful handicapping the NFL this season, and a large reason for that is I have abandoned battle-tested philosophies all too often. An old adage implores bettors to forget what they last saw. This game is a classic example of that, so I will side with Atlanta. The Raiders played one of their best games in prime time, nearly upsetting the Chiefs for the second time this season. Las Vegas demonstrated a sharp offense and an aggressive defense. Meanwhile, Atlanta looked offensively inept against New Orleans, and the defense had trouble stopping a backup quarterback. What those performances do is cause the betting market to overreact, thus providing value on the Falcons. So I will grab the points at home with an offense that I feel can light up a Raiders defense that I expect to be flat.

Pick: Falcons +3

Johnson: Life for the Falcons after Dan Quinn's firing had been going pretty well leading up to their bye week. The Falcons had won three of four games, and their only loss was by one point to the Lions after Todd Gurley II tried to go down at the goal line but accidentally scored a touchdown, giving Detroit a chance to win the game in the final minute, which Matthew Stafford did with a touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson as time expired.

Why are the Falcons being so penalized here for losing to a Saints team that had won six in a row? This opened PK, and now they're getting three points? The New Orleans' defense has been otherworldly of late, too. Remember that 38-3 drubbing of the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay? Not to mention, the Falcons were preparing for Jameis Winston for the majority of the week before the Saints announced Taysom Hill would be the starter. I know the Raiders looked good Sunday against the Chiefs (in a loss), but I disagree pretty heavily with this move. My projection is Atlanta +0.9, and though Julio Jones aggravated a hamstring Sunday and is a game-time decision this week, this is still too drastic of a move on Las Vegas.

Pick: Falcons +3

Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games

New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 43.5) at Denver Broncos

Schatz: Football Outsiders DVOA ratings are driving the New Orleans bandwagon this year. We have the Saints at No. 1, and they rank in the top five in all three phases of the game. Meanwhile, the Broncos' win over Miami helped them climb all the way to 29th. They are the worst offense in the league this year by our numbers, and they're about to play a Saints defense that has been phenomenal over the past three weeks. Denver's defense is good but not great, and ranks just 16th against the run. That's a problem when you're about to face Taysom Hill at quarterback. Obviously, this line accounts for Hill playing instead of Drew Brees, but that's the only reason it isn't double-digits. The gap between these teams is huge.

Pick: Saints -5.5

Marks: Hill completed 78% of his passes for 233 yards and rushed for 51 yards and two touchdowns last week. He played more as a pocket passer than most expected, which indicates how threatening this Saints offense can be when picking your defensive poison. Hill, combined with a Saints defense that logged 11 QB hits and eight sacks against Matt Ryan should be frightening for Drew Lock and his 28th-ranked offensive line. Let the oddsmakers keep doubting the Swiss Army Knife, and I'll keep pocketing money.

Pick: Saints -5.5

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 46.5)

Fulghum: The Rams are finally done with East Coast travel and get to stay in the Pacific Time Zone the rest of year. Sunday, they welcome a withered 49ers team to SoFi Stadium, where Sean McVay's squad is 4-0 this season.

The Rams' defense is playing as well as any unit in the NFL. They appear to finally have a competent kicker. The offense is as efficient as ever. The Rams are a complete team. The 49ers -- due to injuries and COVID-19 -- are a complete mess. The Rams win this one by multiple scores and keep the under in play by suffocating the San Francisco offense.

Pick: Rams -7.5; Under 46.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 54) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fortenbaugh: Kansas City is averaging 32.3 points per game on the road this season and will have the luxury of facing a tired Tampa defense that has yet to refuel during a bye week and is also coming off a Monday night game. As for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense, the upside here is that Kansas City's defense can't generate the same kind of pressure the Rams did in Week 11, meaning it should be much easier to move the ball up and down the field with consistency. After all, despite the 9-1 record, the Chiefs have surrendered 62 points over their past two games to the Panthers and Raiders.

Pick: Over 54

Sunday's 8:20 p.m. game

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5, 45)

Schatz: It's hard to see how the Bears (29th in offensive DVOA) can score enough points to keep up with the Packers (second in offensive DVOA), but their defense is good enough to keep Aaron Rodgers relatively contained. The Bears' defense is fourth in the league in DVOA, and that quality defense keeps games close. Four of the Bears' five losses have been by 8 points or fewer. The Bears are particularly built to neutralize Davante Adams, as they lead the league in DVOA covering opposing No. 1 wide receivers and allow just a 54% catch rate.

Pick: Bears +8.5

Walder: If an average receiver earned the exact targets Darnell Mooney has this year (and from an average QB), we'd expect that receiver to earn 32.5 receiving yards per game on those passes before accounting for any YAC, according to completion probability data from NFL Next Gen Stats. Mooney and Mitchell Trubisky are not an average combination, to be fair, but the point is that Mooney has received plenty of opportunity to hit the over on this prop on average. But here's the cherry on top: that number includes games when Mooney was playing much less. In Weeks 1-5, Mooney played on 59% of Chicago's offensive snaps, but in Weeks 6-10 that number jumped to 84%. That's enough of a jump for me to want the over, despite Trubisky starting at quarterback.

Pick: Mooney over 33.5 receiving yards (-120)

Tuesday's 8 p.m. ET game

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 45)

Fulghum: Without running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins due to COVID-19, the Baltimore backfield belongs to Gus Edwards. With the way the Baltimore passing game is sputtering, one would think the Ravens lean run-heavy in a matchup with one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

Pick: Edwards over 58.5 rushing yards

Walder: There's only one good thing about me losing the Marquise Brown receiving yards prop week after week: the line keeps dropping. It has fallen so far that the line is now significantly below Brown's expected completed air yards per game, based on NFL Next Gen Stats' completion probability model. And remember, that's banking on zero yards after catch!

Brown, who had zero catches last week, is so off that his completed air yards over expectation has cracked negative triple-digits. Yikes! The good news is, for his career, he's still just a -1% catch percentage over expectation receiver. That's all I'm asking for here -- a middling catch rate based on the throws he receives -- and this will finally hit.

Pick: Brown over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marks: The Steelers are undefeated, and the Ravens are dealing with COVID-19; I understand why the majority of money is flowing toward the terrible towels, but I'm going against the grain. Games between these two franchises are always close. In their previous meeting, the Ravens outperformed the Steelers in total yards (457 to 221), first downs (25-19) and time of possession by (+9 minutes). The deciding factor was four turnovers -- one that was a pick-six -- and I don't see that happening again. This game should be decided by 3 or 7 points.

Anticipating that both Ingram and Dobbins will be inactive, Gus Edwards should be the bell cow. The last time Edwards faced the Steelers, he rushed 16 times for 87 yards and a score. With no Ingram or Dobbins, Edwards' volume will be increased against a Steelers rushing defense allowing more than 4 yards per carry.

Pick: Ravens +11 in teaser with Washington +9, Edwards over 58.5 rushing yards

[Istandfortheanthem]

Good Paul Leiner 3000* win yesterday! He has another highest rated 3000* today for 1pm. If anybody finds it Thank you in advance!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CIRCA Contest / Las Vegas

Top Six:

PRESENCE-2 --- 7. RAIDERS -3 13. BROWNS -6½ 16. PANTHERS +4 18. TITANS +3 27. CHIEFS -3½

CHICKENDINNER-1 --- 16. PANTHERS +4 19. BILLS -5½ 23. SAINTS -6 26. 49ERS +7 30. BEARS +9½

DSR90-1 --- 10. PATRIOTS +2½ 11. GIANTS -6 13. BROWNS -6½ 16. PANTHERS +4 21. DOLPHINS -7

SUNNYSANDIEGO-1 --- 3. COWBOYS -2½ 5. STEELERS -4 7. RAIDERS -3 10. PATRIOTS +2½ 21. DOLPHINS -7

PRESENCE-1 --- 11. GIANTS -6 13. BROWNS -6½ 16. PANTHERS +4 18. TITANS +3 27. CHIEFS -3½

Sheila's Boys-1 --- 3. COWBOYS -2½ 7. RAIDERS -3 11. GIANTS -6 27. CHIEFS -3½ 31. SEAHAWKS -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tkwins
3* Buffalo -4
4* Minnesota -2.5
4* Kansas City -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

4* Browns -6
3* 49ers +6.5

[FATMANWINS]

ats
9 raiders
9 giants
9 tampa
0-5 yesterday .

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS HOT SHEET

PREMIUM colts..bucks..pit.

Reg..viks,NE,rams, gb,falcon,Seattle

Seattle/vik free

[Can'tPickAWinner]

In Game Trap Highest ranked play NFL

Cardinals vs Patriots OVER 49

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FYI

All 4 Denver QB's are out. Starting WR Kendall Hinton at QB.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ESPN Daily Wager Best Bets

Preston.....Mia-Jets OVER
Doug..........Teaser Cleve/Giants
Anita,,,,,,,,,Gallman OVER 57.5 rushing yards
Joe..............Titans
Tyler.......Mahomes OVER 2.5 TDs
Mike Clay......DeVante Parker OVER 59.5 yards

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

3% Buccaneers +3'
3% Falcons +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Az -2// ne. + OVER49.5
Clev -7 // jx
Car.-mn// over 50
Buffalo -4.5// chargers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Ma- Ravens , Dolphins, Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST

ODBMG2 - W38 L15 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE NO SF SEA

CAPENJ - W35 L18 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: ATL JAX CAR LAC CHI

MARTY MUSH - W35 L19 T1 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR LAC NO

TOURIST - W33 L18 T4 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: TEN BUF LAR TB CHI

THE KING OF GREEN - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: CLE LAC DEN SF PHI

GRIND EM OUT - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: DET NE IND LAR TB

OOPHIE 69 - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR MIA NO

INVISIBLE - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CIN TEN NO SF

PARLAY KG - W34 L19 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV ARI NYG TEN SEA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bondi

4* Minnesota
3* New England
3* San Francisco

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL​(BOB BALFE)
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #258
Browns -7 over Jaguars
The Browns are itching to play in a game that the weather doesn?t limit their offense. The weather will be nice and Cleveland could not have drawn a more perfect opponent on defense. The Jags are brutal and to make matters worse they will be starting Mike Glennon today at QB. Glennon has not thrown a ball in a game since 2017. Cleveland should put up a ton of points today on offense and on defense create turnovers. The Browns Defensive Line is missing a few key pass rushers today, but Glennon and his timing will be so off that this unit should force him into silly mistakes. Cleveland should have a balanced rushing attack of their own, but you know they are going to try to pass it more today just to get Baker Mayfield some positive stats. Take Cleveland.

[B*mb07]

Marco D"Angelo
4% (272) TAMPA BAY +3.5

Bad scheduling spot for Kansas City as the Raider Game was a big Game as it was SNF and a revenge game for Kansas City’s only loss of the season. KC now has to travel to Tampa for a Non-Conference Road game (least important on schedule). Tampa on the other hand comes in here on a short week off a loss on MNF. Once again Brady struggled in a Prime Time night game this year as his INT’s were the difference in the game. Last Week I was on the Rams because we had two good teams with very good defenses. The Rams had the better defense and was getting points an angle I like to ride with. For this game we have the same situation two good teams but one has the better defense and is getting points and this week that’s Tampa. Tampa has the #3 defense in YPP allowing just 5.2 yards. Last Week The Rams were able to put pressure on Brady, but this KC defense doesn’t bring that kind of pressure on opposing QB’s like the Rams do. Note Arians is 13-3 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less in his coaching career. We also find that over the L3 Seasons Brady has been a Underdog 5 times he’s 4-1 SU & ATS. TAMPA BAY 31-28TAKE TAMPA as my 4% NFL UPSET SHOCKER.

[B*mb07]

Marco
4% 6pt teaser Browns/ 49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LINE DRIVE SPORTS

3* Atl
3* NE
3* Buff

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5-STAR Tennessee and Indianapolis Under 52 This is a quick rematch from when these teams played just two weeks ago in a game where Indianapolis dominated the second half. The Colts also dominated the second half last game against the Packers in a comeback win. We expect this to be a game where Indianapolis is able to play with a lead and control the clock in this game.
Tennessee picked up a huge overtime win over Baltimore last week, 30-24. They got a couple of big performances from the skill positions. Derrick Henry ran for 133 yards while Corey Davis had 133 receiving yards. Teams that had both a 110+ yard rusher and receiver last game are 118-163-9 OU.

Tennessees pass defense played significantly better in that game than any recent game, holding Baltimore to just 177 passing yards. Teams that allowed at least 50 fewer passing yards last game than any of their past eight games (dating back to last season) are 193-237-12 (tel:193-237-12) OU.

Indianapolis defeated Green Bay last week, 34-31 in overtime. The Colts defense really found something in the second half. They gave up 28 points in the first half but just three in the second half in a huge comeback win. Teams that allowed at least 21 points more in the first half than the second half of their last game are 134-191-7 OU.

Indianapolis came back from a 14-point deficit in that game, not all that dissimilar to their win over Tennessee where they overcame a pair of 7-point deficits. Teams coming off back-to-back wins where they trailed by 7+ points last game and also trailed two games ago are 187-236-7 OU (p:W and po:BL>=7 and pp:W and ppo:BL>0).

Against Green Bay, the Colts had to air things out after they got behind. They threw for 280 yards in a game they picked up 23 first downs. The Colts are 0-13 OU (-11.81 ppg) since Nov 23, 2014 at home coming off a game where they threw for at least 245 yards and gained no more than 25 first downs (team=Colts and H and p:passing yards>=245 and p:first downs<=25 and date>=20141123).

Philip Rivers threw for all three of the Colts touchdowns in that game but such a big scoring day has been had for Rivers to duplicate. Teams are 0-14-1 OU (-8.77 ppg) since Nov 22, 2010 at home when the total is at least 44 coming off a game where Philip Rivers threw for at least three touchdowns (H and total >44 and Philip Rivers:p:passing touchdowns>=3 and date>=20101122).

The rest of Indianapolis scoring came on field goals as the Colts attempted five and made four of them. Teams which attempted at least five field goals last game are 133-172-5 OU.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 23, Tennessee 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Banker Sports

Browns game under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Columbus Shower Picks
Titans

[B*mb07]

Marco
4% (261) TENNESSEE +3
Both teams are coming off huge OT Wins last week. But if we dig deeper Indy shouldn’t have won as Green Bay gift wrapped that win by turning the ball over 4 times. This is also the second meeting of the season between these two as just a couple weeks ago Indy went to Tennessee and put a beating on the Titans. In that first meeting Tannehill had his worst game of the year. I like taking the road dog in the second meeting if they lost the first meeting at home. Indy after already beating Tennessee 2 weeks ago and then winning in OT over Green Bay last week, I have to feel that they are feeling all Fat n Sassy and Tennessee is a very live Revenging Road Dog. These two are tied at 7-3 but for Tennessee this game means more as having already lost to Indy if they lose today they would basically be two back instead of one because of tie breaker. TENNESSEE 24-20. TAKE TENNESSEE as my 4% AFC SOUTH SHOCKER.

[B*mb07]

Marco
4% (260) MINNESOTA -3

Will anyone want Minnesota this week after losing to the lowly Cowboys last week especially after how bad Dallas came back and played on Thanksgiving. Last week was the perfect storm as Dallas had 2 weeks to prepare and was getting Andy Dalton back. The Cowboys also were catching Minnesota off a short week following a very physical game with Chicago on MNF the week before. Teddy Bridgewater is set to return this week after missing last weeks game with an injury. Carolina won with the backup QB which was no surprise as that was The Injured Player Theory...But now we have the second part of that as if the injured team wins we look to fade them the following game especially if the starter returns as now you have the reverse effect of the Injured Player Theory. The Basis of the Injured Player Theory is that the injured team is getting an inflated line based on public perception while the rest of the team plays at a higher intensity level to compensate for the loss of the injured player but in Game 2...The team doesn’t play with the same intensity because they won and when the star is returning the line value you enjoyed last week is gone because everyone over reacts the other way with his return. Minnesota will move the ball against this Carolina defense and I just don’t see Carolina trading points the entire game. The one thing I will say is Bridgewater will be pumped up going back to play in Minnesota but he doesn’t play defense and it’s the Carolina defense that will get them beat here. One last Note: Coach Zimmer is 15-4 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA. MINNESOTA 31-20 as my 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK.

[B*mb07]

Marco
5% (252) ATLANTA +3
Everyone saw The Raiders look as good as a team could look in defeat last week while they saw Atlanta get trounced by the Saints and a Back up QB. No one will want Atlanta. That was a big game for the Raiders and although it was a good looking loss it was still a loss. And I feel this is a dangerous spot for them. The Knee jerk reaction will be to take The Raiders to bounce back but honestly this is a Trap Game situation as that was a statement game for the Raiders and the way they lost at the end I feel will have a hangover affect this week. The Raiders also have to travel cross country to play a NFC team which I say over and over the least important game on a teams schedule are non conference road games. Atlanta’s defense ranks dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6 but The Raiders aren’t that much better as they are 24th allowing 6.1 YPP. I just can’t trust a team in a bad scheduling spot off a gut wrenching loss with a bad defense to lay points on the road. ATLANTA 31-27 as my 5% NFL HIGH ROLLER

[Lexdeoh20189]

Dave Price NFL Play:


Atlanta Falcons +3


The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders are in a tough situation today. They must travel out East for an early start time here and try and shake off their 31-35 loss to the Chiefs in which they allowed the winning touchdown in the final minute. The Chiefs are their biggest rivals, so they could easily suffer a hangover here from that defeat. And the price is right to back a Falcons team coming off a bad loss to the Saints. The Falcons have won 3 of their previous 4 with their only loss coming by a single point. They will keep going hard under head coach Raheem Morris as they have been since he took over. And they will have Calvin Ridley healthy and could have Julio Jones back after he got hurt against the Saints. The Raiders have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL so Matt Ryan won’t be getting sacked 8 times like he did against the Saints. He’ll have time to pick apart a soft Raiders defense that yields 27.6 PPG this year. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 4 or more consecutive ATS wins. Take Atlanta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant NCAAB

3% Air Force Under 136

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Winningham is playing 3 team teezer - Bills over and Rams + and Pack+ and or teeze other way with Bears +18 or so

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Elite Sports Picks

Kansas City/Tampa Bay OVER 56 (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report

4* Buffalo -4.5 over L.A. Chargers (NFL)
Range: -3 to -7

3* Atlanta +3 over Las Vegas (NFL)
Range: +4.5 to +.5

3* N.Y. Giants -6 over Cincinnati (NFL)
Range: -4 to -8

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National Sports Service

5* L.A. Chargers/Buffalo OVER 52.5 (NFL)

3* San Francisco +6.5 over L.A. Rams (NFL)

3* Kansas City -3.5 over Tampa Bay (NFL)

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Primetime Sports Picks
MEMBER PICKS For 11/29/20

4 Unit --> Minnesota -3.5 over Carolina (NFL)

3 Unit --> L.A. Chargers/Buffalo OVER 52.5 (NFL)

3 Unit --> N.Y. Giants/Cincinnati UNDER 44 (NFL)

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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 11/29/20

4★ Kansas City/Tampa Bay OVER 56 (NFL)

3★ N.Y. Giants -6 over Cincinnati (NFL)

3★ Tennessee +3 over Indianapolis (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Hilton - Gameday

3 - Minn -3
2 - NE +1'
2 - Buff -4'

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Brad Feinberg

cardinals

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Docs Sports College Hoops

5 Unit Play. Take #814 Texas Tech -2.5 over Houston (5:30p.m., Sunday, November 29 ESPN2) This is a battle of two of the top teams in the state of Texas and we will side with the Red Raiders. The Cougars are not as strong as they were last year and do not appear to be a good shooting team again in 2020-2021. Both teams plays great defense and getting Mac McClung eligible should push Texas Tech over the top in this game. Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win in their previous game.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

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Indian Cowboy College Hoops

7-unit Play. #801. Take Richmond +8.5 over Kentucky. Sunday @ 1:00 pm

Chris Mooney's Richmond team won 24 games last year, he has really turned this team around after back to back 12 win seasons. Richmond made 72 percent of their two-point field goal which is interesting. Add in this is only an eight point line, with a very experienced Richmond team while Kentucky is a bunch of new players trying to make it at a premier level team and are trying to gel. Richmond scored 82 in their opener against Morehead State, while Kentucky scored just 81 against the same side. Sort of a dangerous game here for Kentucky, top 10 team in the country that is only favored by eight points here?

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North Coast
4* GOM Buffalo -4.5
3* Las Vegas -3
3* Kansas City -3.5

Marquee
Under 44 Green Bay

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Doc Sports NCAA

5 texas tech-2.5

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Jason Sharpe NCAA

3 rhode island-1.5

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Strike Point Sports NCAA

3 houston +2.5 playing texas tech

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Coastal Sports
Carolina

Endzone
Giants

Premier Picks
Minnesota

Preferred Picks
Atlanta

Sun Belt Sportswire
Tampa Bay

World Wager
Tennessee

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sports insights
atlanta falcons +3
tampa bay+3.5

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JIM FEIST

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS-pts
UNDER 44 - BEARS - PACKERS

CBB - RICHMOND+pts

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KIEV O'NEIL

San Francisco vs LA Rams - UNDER 45.5 – 2 stars
Tennessee +3.5 – 2 stars

[rocky57]

The Swami
Five-In-Won Pro Sports (NFL) - 10* Top Side Play Cleveland Browns -7

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docs consensus

6* atlanta
6* denver
6* ny jets
6* kc ----- kc over

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Matt Joseph

4% Cincinnati Bengals Total Under 19.5 (-117)

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Jimmy Moore

NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR!!!

7* Green Bay Packers -9 (8:20 est) NBC

[rocky57]

Stats Analytics Sports
NFL ATS 35-28 ytd +943

NFL - 3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

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Tom Stryker

13-0 & 10-0 ATS CONF GAME OF THE MONTH
Bills

System of Week
Packers

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Mississippi Kid

NFL

Raiders-3 1U
Browns -8.5 1U
Carolina +3 1U
Saints -16 1U

Saint vs Denver UNDER 36.5 2U

Denver TT UNDER 10.5 1U
KC vs TB OVER 57 2U
SD vs Bills OVER 51.5 1.5U
Jack vs Cleve Under 49 1U

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Docs Sports

7-Unit Play. Competition: EPL. Take Wolverhampton +0.5 (-140) over Arsenal (Sunday at 2:15pm). includes 90 minutes + injury time. For this selection to win, Wolverhampton must win or draw.

As per your selection on Wolves to get at least a point in their matchup with Arsenal, we believe they are in a good spot to do well here as they need a good performance to erase a run of two games without a win. They tend to play in low-scoring games and their defensive record is excellent so far this season. Throw in the fact that Arsenal have not scored from open play (corners, penalties, free kicks excluded) for five straight league games. That's not a recipe for success and as such they've scored just 9 times in 9 games. We expect this game to be a tight, cagey affair and we can see Wolves notching a goal or two and relying on their stout defense to hold Arsenal at bay. Take Wolves and let's finish November with a big winner!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SUNDAY MLS PLAYOFF SOCCER
ESPARZA

7 Unit Play. Take Columbus 'Pick -140' over Nashville (8:00p.m., Sunday, November 29) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a PUSH)
A trip to the MLS Playoff Semis is on the line tonight at MAPFRE Stadium and I'm all on the Columbus Crew. Columbus is coming off a big playoff win beating the New York Red Bulls 3-2 and the Crew were dominating at home and tonight home pitch holds. Nashville has playing some great soccer as of late but I see them giving up an early goal to the Crew and give me the experience of the Crew tonight at home. I know Nashville beat one of the MLS Cup favorites Toronto but tonight the Crew could be getting back some fresh legs and again experience wins this match.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

10 Cleveland/Jacksonville over 48.5
10 Tennessee +3.5
10 Carolina/Minnesota over 51
10 LA Chargers/Buffalo over 52.5
10 Cleveland -7
10 Miami/NY Jets over 44.5
10 Carolina +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Silverstein

Buffalo -4
Las Vegas -3
Tennessee +3
Arizona -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Sports Plays (J.R. Stevens)

Carolina +3.5/ML +140 (GOY)

Atlanta +4/ML +160

Jacksonville +8/ML +290

Indianapolis -2.5

New York Jets +8/ML +270

Tampa Bay +4/ML +160

*Play ML for half normal amount when listed

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Mti teasers
carolina
pittsburgh

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Tim Doyle

Richmond +280 ML

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Paul Leiner

3000 lac/buf over

[rocky57]

Rockdeman Sports
NFL Underdog of the Day - Denver Broncos +17

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4Deep Bets- Tommy G

NFL SUNDAY



13pt tease Saints -2, GB +4.5, Sea +7, Rams +7 (5u) MAX
10 pt tease Saints -5, GB +1.5, LV +7 (5u) MAX
7pt tease Saints -8.5, GB -1.5 (5u) MAX
7PT tease Rams pk, GB -1.5 (5u) MAX
Parlay: LV ML, KC, ML, Minn ML +302 (3 to win 9.06)
Parlay: Rams ML, KC ML, LV ML +252 (3 to win 7.56)
1PM Minn -175 (3u)
1PM LasV -180 (3u)
1PM Titans +3 (3u)
1PM Jags +280 (1u)
1PM Bengals +230 (1u)
4PM NO -13.5 -140 (3u)
4PM KC -180 (3u)
4PM rams -6 (3u)

[dawggy]

ASA





ASAwins NFL Totals Titan! 70% Season!
Game: (263) Los Angeles Chargers at (264) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 52.5 (-110)

#263/264 ASA PLAY ON 4* Over 52.5 Points – LA Chargers @ Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Chargers currently have the 4th ranked total offense in the NFL. That’s not a good sign for Buffalo’s defense. In fact the Bills have already faced 4 top 5 total offenses this year and in those games they given up an average of 31 PPG and 455 YPG. LA’s defense has been outright poor as of late allowing 28, 29, 31, 31, 29, 30, and 38 points over their last 7 games. What’s worse is 4 of those games were vs the Jets, Broncos, Jaguars, and Dolphins who all rank 23rd or lower in total offense. The Bills offense was playing outstanding early in the season but hit a lull about a month ago. They’ve gotten back on track scoring 24, 44, and 30 points over their last 3 games. They are also coming off a bye so we expect a solid game plan vs a weak LAC defense. LA will put up points as well. QB Herbert has been outstanding throwing for at least 300 yards in 5 of his 9 starts with 22 TD’s and just 6 interceptions. He is facing a Buffalo pass defense that ranks 23rd in opponent completion percentage and 22nd in yards per pass attempt allowed. Herbert is possibly getting back one of his main offensive weapons with RB Ekeler coming off IR and may play on Sunday. The total points scored in the last 7 LA Charger games look like this - 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, and 62 for an average of 60 PPG. All of those games went OVER the total. Buffalo is 8-2 to the OVER this season. The weather in Buffalo can be a concern at this time of year but Sunday’s forecast call for sun and high’s near 50 degrees. With the Bills favored by 4.5 in this game and the total at 52 & 52.5, the projected score is right around 28-24. We think both teams have a great shot to get into the 30’s and we’d be shocked if at last one of them didn’t hit 30. Take the OVER in this one.
ASAwins NFL Game of the Week! 67% RUN
Game: (267) New Orleans Saints at (268) Denver Broncos
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-115)

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 4* New Orleans -6.5 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5. Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS. On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game. Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards. Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s. Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA. Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF). Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last. New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL. We like the Saints laying under a TD here.
ASAwins 5* Total Shocker of the Month
Game: (271) Kansas City Chiefs at (272) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:25 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 56.5 (-110)

#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 5* Over 56 Points – Kansas City @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - To hold Tampa’s offense in check, you need to have an elite pass rush. Brady is not great when under pressure but if he has time, he’ll pick you apart. Case in point, last week when the Bucs faced a top notch Rams pass rush, they were held to 251 total yards but still scored 24 points. A few week’s prior to that they faced New Orleans, who is top 5 in sack percentage, and the Bucs scored just 3 points. In their other meeting with the Saints they had 23 points. If we take away their games vs top 10 rush defenses (sack percentage) the Bucs are averaging 34.5 PPG. KC’s rush defense ranks 21st in the NFL. The TB has solid overall stats but much of that came early in the season. They have allowed 26 PPG over last 5 games and only 1 of those teams (Rams) ranked in the top 10 in total offense. Now they face a KC offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and 1st in scoring. The Chiefs are rolling offensively scoring at least 33 points in 4 straight games. They’ve been held under 30 points only 3 times this season. Their defense is another story. They’ve been giving up points and yardage. The last 2 games alone, vs Panthers & Raiders, they’ve allowed 31 points in each and over 400 yards in each. They’ve allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 6 games and 2 of the games they did not they were facing the Jets & Broncos, two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both of these teams like to play at a fast tempo with TB 10th and KC 14th in pace of play. Those numbers are actually deceiving as they should both be ranked higher in pace of play. They are ranked 3rd and 4th in first half pace of play and because they have gotten out to some big leads, they’ve slowed down in the 2nd half which affect their overall pace. We don’t see either team getting out to a big lead here. We look for a back and forth game in perfect weather in Tampa (80 degrees and light winds) and we’ll grab the OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo College Hoops

1-Unit Play. Take #801 Richmond (+8) over Kentucky (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)

I think Richmond can play with Kentucky. The Spiders are one of the top mid-major teams in the country. They are just as good as St. Louis, a team that beat SEC foe LSU yesterday. Now I think that another one of A-10's finest can potentially take down another SEC team. Further, we've seen this in the past from Kentucky: early season struggles. Coach Cal always loads up on freshmen and new players and always has to develop chemistry on his squads. The result is usually an early season loss or struggle. I think that this will be it. Richmond's Princeton offense is going to test Kentucky's patience and I think that they will be able to execute well enough to keep this one competitive.

4-Unit Play. Take #806 Rutgers (-14.5) over Hofstra (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)

This Rutgers team is legit. They have seven of their top eight starters back from last year's team and added stud freshman Cliff Omoruyi. Now, lead guard Geo Baker is hurt. But that just means that everyone else is going to raise their level of play to compensate. That exactly what happened in their 21-point win over Fairleigh Dickinson, with Ron Harper pumping in 30 points and Jacob Young adding 24. The won their first game by 23 and I see another blowout here. Hofstra has some issues. Head coach Joe Mihalich has taken a medical leave of absence, leaving them free of an excellent coach. Hofstra also lost two legit, ball-dominant guards, Des Buie and Eli Pemberton, who combined to average 36 points per game. Finding chemistry and figuring their roles is going to take some time. Last year a very good 26-win Hofstra team got blown out several times in nonconference play. This team is worse and it is playing against an NCAA Tournament-caliber opponent on the road. Should be ugly.

1-Unit Play. Take #814 Texas Tech (-2.5) over Houston (5:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)

Houston is absolutely for real. They are one of the favorites to win the AAC and are a likely NCAA Tournament team. However, I think they are going to get put in their place in this one. Texas Tech is also very much for real. And now that they have transfers Mac McClung and Marcus Santos-Silva eligible they are set to again compete for a title in the best conference in college hoops. McClung is one of the most exciting players in the sport. And I think he'll be able to at least neutralize Houston's top gun, Quentin Grimes. I think that Tech's defense is going to be able to slow down Houston as well. We cashed against Houston with Boise State their last time out. And if Boise had shot the ball well at all - they were a comical 1-for-16 from 3-point range - they probably would've pulled an upset. As it was they were down just 59-52 with 2:30 to play. Tech isn't going to go 1-for-16 from deep today and I think they'll get a win.

NOTE: THE FOLLOWING GAMES ARE LOCATED IN COLLEGE EXTRA OR IN ADDED GAMES.

1-Unit Play. Take #7089 Boise State (-13) over Sam Houston State (2 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)

I have to think that Boise State is a little irritated at how they played against Houston. I think that they will bounce back here and they should shoot the ball a bit better from deep. Sam Houston lost three senior starters and five transfers from last year's squad. They are working in a lot of new pieces. They also only have two guys on the roster taller than 6-6, which is a problem. SHSU lost its first two games by 30+ points. This one will be more competitive but I can still see Boise clearing them out by 15-18 points.

1-Unit Play. Take #7094 Georgia (-20.5) over Florida A&M (2 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)

Last year Florida A&M played several nonconference games against major conference competition: USC, Seton Hall, Kansas State, Tennessee and Washington State. They lost those games by 29, 36, 18, 29 and 14 points. Florida A&M was No. 311 in the country in offensive efficiency and field goal offense. The year prior they were No. 347 and No. 245, respectively. They can't score. They already lost their first game, falling to UF-Gulf Coast by nine. Tom Crean is on the hot seat this year. He needs some positive momentum. They faced three teams rated No. 270 or worse last year. They won one by 9, won by 34 and won by 36. We've been watching major conference teams slaughter weaker sisters all week. Let's see if it can happen again here.

1-Unit Play. Take #7103 UMass-Lowell (+27) over Ohio State (Noon, Sunday, Nov. 29)

1-Unit Play. Take #7106 Miami (-23) over North Florida (6 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)

North Florida has the advantage of having played two games already. That's the only advantage they have. They have had to travel twice already and this is their third game in five days. Miami has the edge in size, depth and experience. If North Florida can lose to N.C. State by 35 they can lose to Miami by 30.

Carpe diem. Good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
4-unit Play. #101041. Competition: English Premier League. Take Wolverhampton +0.5(-140) over Arsenal. (Sunday @ 2:15 pm et) (For this to Win, Wolves must Win or Draw, Regulation + Injury time).

Another great Winner in Soccer Yesterday with Bourdeaux +2, and now we are ona great 7-2 Run in Soccer and 11-5 Run and +3300 Run as well in Soccer. Don't forget, we have 5 NFL Plays that go off today as we are 2-1 on the Football Week so far and of course, we are still up in College Basketball for the year, let's keep rolling in Football, College Basketball, Soccer today (along with Golf +3000 and Tennis at +8600 Run as well). Arsenal will be without Pete on Sunday after a Red Card in their scoreless draw at Leeds last week. They proved the Europa League was no match for a above average Premier League side beating Molde 3-0 on the road Thursday night. The host are now 3-1-1 in their last five matches, but have lost two of their last for at home, both in the Premier League, 3-0 to Aston Villa and 1-0 to Leicester City. The Gunners have shown they can score in Europe, but have struggled in the Premier League this season as they sit in 14th place on 13 points with a -1 goal difference. They face an equally as stalled Wolves side that is coming off a 1-1 draw at home to fifth place Southampton. They are 2-1-2 in their last five matches, with a loss a Leicester City. On the road Wolves are very hot and cold, they have wins at Leeds and Sheffield United, but losses at Leicester, West Ham and Chelsea. The visitors sit in 10th place on 14 points, but have drawn the last three at Arsenal 1-1. We do not expect much from this match, Wolves are a strong defensive side, but can hurt teams on the counter. While Arsenal are lacking an identify and can find themselves switching off very easily.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

10* NFL *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos Over 35.5

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around 45.5 and now is as low as 35.5 points. It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys. Hinton started out as a QB at Wake Forest before converting to RB. Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win. On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this. I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games. Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is having a fantastic season as he has made 20 of 21 field goals this season including 14 of 15 from 40+ yards (6 of 7 from 50+ yards). The Broncos ran for nearly 200 yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too. After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns. Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions. I will take it. 10* OVER the total in Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

100 DIME - Las Vegas

[rocky57]

Brandon Watson Sports

CBBKentucky -7
Texas Tech -2.5
Oakland/Michigan Over 148.5

NFL
Raiders -3
Vikings -3
Cardinals pk

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick Six Podcast

PETE PRISCO

NYJ +7
ATLANTA +3
BUFFALO OV
SAN FRANCISCO +7
DENVER +7
6 POINT TEASER GREEN BAY WITH DENVER

R. J. WHITE

6 POINT TEASER NYG WITH GREEN BAY
NYJ +7
LAC +5.5
JACKSONVILLE +6.5
MINNESOTA OV 48.5
NYG UN 43

WILL BRINSON

CHICAGO UN 45
NYJ +7
DENVER +5.5
LAS VEGAS -3
LAS VEGAS OV 55
KC OV 56
SEATTLE OV 50

KENNY WHITE

MISSING IN ACTION

PARLAY

DENVER +5.5
NYJ +7
BUFFALO OV 53

[Can'tPickAWinner]

gold key

300 jets..1-1 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

inside edge

500 jacksonville...1-1 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

David Brooks NFL Best Bets!
Patriots +1
Panthers +3.5
Standard wager,

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

400 Chargers +4
300 Colts -3
300 Falcons +3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Clay Travis- Steelers, Cardinals, over 53.5 bills/Chargers, Dolphins, under 45 saints/broncos, chiefs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MILLERLOCKS
Sunday 11/29/2020 Picks

1:00 PM ET NFL
NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS

PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 (-101)

RISK: 11 UNITS

1:00 PM ET NFL
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

PICK: CLEVELAND BROWNS -7.5 (+103)

RISK: 11 UNITS

1:00 PM ET NFL
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. NEW YORK JETS

PICK: MIAMI DOLPHINS -7.5 (+100)

RISK: 11 UNITS

1:00 PM ET NFL
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

PICK: BUFFALO BILLS -4 (+100)

RISK: 11 UNITS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sports advisor

300 indy..1-0 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

lockeroom

300 cinn..1-2 on these

[rocky57]

PickWise Sports
NFL 3* Best Bets (23-14-2 year to date)

Bills/Chargers Over 51
Browns/Jaguars Under 48.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sports one

200 chicago...8-4 on sun

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

5 JETS +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

tex insiders

300 ..rams ...2-5 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vegas high rollers

300 carolina...3-3 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vegas steam

200 minnesota...5-6 on sun...15-15 ty

[rocky57]

PickWise Sports
CBB 3* Best Bets (8-2-1 year to date)

Texas Tech/Houston Under 138

Play now a 2* as the total has Dropped down to 131

[Can'tPickAWinner]

victory sports

200 tenn....5-6 on sun...15-15 ty

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marty’s Underdog Play

Triple Play
Jets

[FATMANWINS]

kelso
100 falcons

[rocky57]

H&H Sports
NFL
Triple Dime - Chiefs/Buccaneers Over 55.5
Double Dime - Chargers/Bills Over 51
Double Dime - Giants -6 (-115)
Double Dime - Dolphins -7 (-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
5*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 55 or less points
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #251-252…

The stage is set for a big-time Dome SHOOTOUT on Sunday as the Falcons host the Las Vegas Raiders in an EARLY kickoff time of 1:00pm ET. We’ve been patiently waiting all season long for the BEST time to play an Atlanta game OVER the Total as a Best Bet… and that time is NOW. Yes, the bar has been set high for us this week, with an OU line in the mid 50’s for this non-conference game. When the line is this high… and we STILL like the OVER… that means that a lot individual team statistics have to be on our side. First off, we have to have not one but TWO quarterbacks who can consistently get their offenses in the Red Zone. And we are getting that here. The best time to back Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is (a) when he is in the controlled environment of a HOME game… and (b) when he is off a losing, sub-par effort. He had his problems last week in The Big Easy against a very good Saints defense. But the rebound should come pretty easily the week against a defense that’s ranked in the BOTTOM FIVE in passing yards per game allowed. On the flip side, we know what we are getting in Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. A guy who has rejuvenated his career this season. For the year, Carr (78.8) is already ranked as the #4 signal caller in NFL Total QBR rankings. He’s preformed BETTER than Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshuan Watson, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Ben Roethlisberger. Not only that, but Carr was the NUMBER ONE quarterback LAST week in the home loss to the Chiefs (QBR of 95.1!). He’s on a big time roll, and we’re backing him to carve up the horrific Atlanta secondary (2nd LAST this season in passing yards allowed per game at 300.3). More than 73% of the total yards given up by the Falcons have come via the pass. Its a perfect time for the Raiders to REALLY air it out. So we have established that both quarterbacks are capable of putting up a lot of points FAST. And we’ve established that these two defenses are amongst the worst in the league. So far so good. Now, let’s head onto the database in our search for some ‘Over / Under AMMO’ to back us up…

As we have mentioned in the Totals Tipsheet newsletter, non-conference OVERS have been making a major move as of late. 12-1 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 14 or less AFC road teams (RAIDERS) versus a NFC opponent (FALCONS)… And in HIGH-lined non-conference games…

11-1 O/U last 3 years: All > .400 AFC teams (RAIDERS) versus a NFC opponent (FALCONS), when the OU line is a HIGH 52 or more points. These games have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last two years… and 4-0 O/U THIS season… with a gaudy average of 73.0 combined points per game!…

Also a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in this current 2020 season: All AFC WEST Division teams (LAS VEGAS) versus a NFC SOUTH Division opponent (ATLANTA), when the OU line is > 45 points. Average line in these games: 50.0… Average combined points: 61.5… Average OU margin: +11.5 points per game…

The Raiders are off their ‘Division Gauntlet’. 11-0 O/U since 2013: All non-division road teams off back-to-back DIVISION games (RAIDERS), when the OU line is 45 > Points. Average margin in these games: +10.4 ppg…

In fact, Las Vegas has played Kansas City, Denver, AND the LA Chargers in their last three games. 27-11 O/U since 2012: All NFL road teams off 3 or more DIVISION games in a row (RAIDERS)…

Even though they LOST last week, the Raiders are still on a current PERFECT 4-0 game ATS winning streak in their last four games. 28-12-1 O/U since 1998 / PERFECT 9-0-1 O/U since 2014: All GAME 15 < teams off 4 or more ATS wins in a row (RAIDER), when they LOST their last game. Average OU margin: +13.8 ppg…

In the 2nd half of the season, ‘short’ road favorites like the Raiders (currently -3) have been strong OVER plays as of late when the OU line is in the mid-to-high range. 9-1-1 O/U last 3 years: All GAME 8 or greater .500 > road favorites of -3 or LESS points (RAIDERS), when the OU lie is 46 or more points…

After scoring 34 points against a good Denver defense two weeks ago, the Falcons were held to just NINE points last week in their road loss to the Saints. While that low scoring output might scare off the ‘squares’ in this game, it WON’T scare us off. 14-2 o/U since 2007: All NFL teams after scoring < 10 pts AWAY and 34 > pts at HOME in their last two games (FALCONS). Since the 2014 season, the results improve to a perfect 7-0 OU for these teams…

Atlanta lost that division game last week to the Saints by 15 points (24 to 9). 8-0 O/U since 2014: All GAME 11 > underdogs of < 7 points off a Division ROAD loss of > 14 points (FALCONS)…

Many times, the difference between an OVER cashing or losing is the TD / FG ‘splits’. Settling for a filed goal hurts us OVER bettors. We want to see TOUCHDOWNS instead. The good thing for us in this particular game is that BOTH teams (LAS VEGAS and ATLANTA) are ranked in the TOP TEN this season in OPPONENT Red Zone TD percentage (ATL #2 / LV #10).


Pick Made: Nov 25 2020 10:15AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UnderDog

Falcons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

Westgate Super Contest

Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills
This is a good spot to take the Chargers, playing as mid-range underdogs against a good but flawed Bills team. The Chargers offense has been incredible outside of its game against Miami, and they can score points against a Bills defense that's struggled this year. The Chargers defense has given up a lot of points lately but doesn't have the yardage totals to match, so there could be some positive regression in store. And the Chargers can extend drives with their seventh-ranked third-down offense against the Bills' 26th-ranked third-down defense. Both these teams are capable of rallying and making it a close game late, so if you can get more than four in this type of matchup, take the points.

New York Jets +6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Jets have been competitive in their last few games as the offense gets healthier and healthier, and now they're getting Sam Darnold back for this game. That makes them a massive value play against a Dolphins offense that has not looked good despite putting together a five-game win streak before Sunday's loss in Denver. Teams have been able to run all over the Dolphins, but a mediocre Broncos passing attack had no issues carving them up last week either. With Tua Tagovailoa struggling enough to get benched in-game for performance reasons, this has a great chance of being the Jets' first win of the season.

Chicago Bears (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers
The Bears starting Mitchell Trubisky instead of Nick Foles (hip) might be a blessing in disguise. The Bears offense struggled in two easier matchups with Foles at the helm before the bye, and having a QB who can move could open things up a bit. It's notable that the Bears haven't lost by more than eight points in any of Trubisky's five career starts against the Packers. A lot of that is due to the defense, which is having another great season, ranking first in third down and red zone percentage, third in points per drive and fourth in DVOA. The defense will do enough to keep the Packers from throwing up a big number, allowing the Bears to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Jaguars roll into this game with Mike Glennon as the starting quarterback and no D.J. Chark outside at receiver. Despite that, I think they're a great value getting a touchdown at home, and it comes down to the team coming to town. Why are the Browns good enough to lay seven on the road without Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on defense? Their run game is incredible, but the Cleveland passing attack has been lacking all year in virtually every matchup. Glennon is a replacement-level QB, but that's actually an upgrade from what Jacksonville has been getting from Jake Luton. Glennon can cover through the back door late and even have Jacksonville in position to beat this shorthanded Browns squad.

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Laying a bunch of points with a Seahawks team that has had major defensive issues this season doesn't seem like a great idea, but their defense has actually taken a step forward over the last few weeks, giving up just 44 points in a pair of key divisional games in their last two matchups. And they'll get the benefit of facing an offense that has dealt with poor play from the quarterback and offensive line, which makes it harder for the Eagles to get through the back door late. The Eagles defense also hasn't given up many points lately, but the Seahawks are a different beast than the Giants, Cowboys and Browns. Seattle should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Picks Weekly
Sunday, November 29th 2020

NFL:
Arizona/New England Over +50 (-115)
Cincinnati/New York Under -45
Cincinnati TT Under -19.5
Carolina +3
Green Bay -8
Raiders/Falcons Over +53


NCAAB:
No Plays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RASzzele DAZZLE

AF +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Midwest NFL Handicapping

TENN +3
LAC +4
ATL +3.5
NE -1
CHI +8
CLEV -6 (Buy Point)
PITT -10


6 PT Teaser
WASH +3/HOU +3
NYG -.5/CAR +9
TENN +9/GB -1.5
TB +9.5/LAC +10
NE +5/UNDER 56.5
LAR -.5/NO -10.5
TAM +9.5/PHIL +12.5
CLEV -1/GB -1.5
TAM +9.5/OVER 48


OVER/UNDER
KC/TAM OVER 54
TENN/INDY UNDER 52
LAC/BUFF OVER 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

masters edge

200 tb...1-3 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

national sportsline

300 new england...1-1 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dime Man (7-0 Sat): Jags; Packers

[J Pendleton]

Youngstown Connection ?

TIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

prime star

200 chicago...5-6 on these

[BigChub]

Burns...TIA!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

preferred picks

2 atlanta...2-3 on these...

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vip sports

300 carolina...2-6 on these

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Animal
5* KC -3 on the buy @ -120 or more (depending on book)
Granted it?s not New England but don?t be surprised if Pat Mahomes has special incentive today against Tom Brady. Remember it was Brady?s Patriots that beat the Chiefs in the 2018 AFC Championship game in overtime when that stupid NFL rule applied in which the team that wins the coin flip has the opportunity to win the game by scoring a touchdown and thereby eliminating the opponent a possession. I swear on paper the Chiefs could win this game by 30-points or more. Tampa is a mess in my opinion and I live about 35 minutes from the stadium. The problem is Tom Brady is more concerned about his legacy and health than winning football games. If you watch Brady now he wants to get rid of the ball as quick as possible. Throwing deep really isn?t an option anymore because he doesn?t allow the time in the pocket for his receivers to get downfield and get open or complete the route. The last two years in New England took it?s toll with his confidence in offensive linemen. He has no confidence in them then or in Tampa now with those units protecting him. He and Coach Arians are battling weekly because Brady wants to dink and dunk but the Bucs? wide receivers are more built on throwing downfield and that?s especially the case for Mike Evans. Godwin could develop that way but it will take time because Jameis Winston really fit the Arians mold. Remember he was there with Big Ben in the early days and Carson Palmer in Arizona when it was all 20-yard or more passing attempts. Brady wants to incorporate the smurf-type of receiving core and it?s just not there in Tampa. This is what makes Mahomes so special. He?s patient enough and elusive enough in the pocket waiting for Hill to get open downfield but he?s also willing to take the short passes now. I just don?t see any team beating the Chiefs the rest of the way. Vegas is trying to emulate what KC is doing but they don?t have the defense right now, although they are getting close. Vegas is effective because they have some sensational running backs and Carr hangs in the pocket. Brady at 43 isn?t about to do that and the Bucs just won?t make the commitment to the running game. Remember the recent game when they set an all-time record with just five rushing attempts. If Jared Goff can complete 39-of-51 for 376 yards against Tampa what is Mahomes capable of? The Tampa defense is a little strange. They are highly ranked in a number of categories but it sure does seem like they give up a ton of points and yards and especially against the elite of this league. They certainly miss defensive tackle Vita Vea and now corner Jamel Dean is out. Plus the offensive line is starting to take some hits. A.Q. Shipley is out with a neck injury and tackle Donvan Smith and guard Ali Marpet are both questionable today. KC has failed to cover their last two games laying -10 1/2 and -7 1/2. Do you really believe this team is going three straight weeks without a cover? KC has scored 33 or more points in four straight games. I just don?t believe Tampa can match them with the way Brady is playing right now and he and Coach Arians are not on the same page. Sammy Watkins back in the KC lineup today.