Friday 12/4/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis December 4, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the feature at Cal Expo comes in Race 9, the Alan Horowitz Final with a $20,000 purse. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 8. The sequence has a 16% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

1-Flash Me Baby (5/2)-Has raced from the back in both starts off the bench. Roland takes the lines on this 4-year-old mare he trains. Gets post relief and looks like a player.
2-Roaring Home (6-1)-Takes a drop after a needed start versus $6k claimers from the 10-hole. Gets a ++ driver change in Svendsen and was facing much better at Haw. May finally take a picture in 2020, currently 0-23.
6-Future Delight (9/2)-Not Plano's choice but Kennedy is no slouch and due to get hot. Dropped to the bottom level in last and got on the engine from the 7-hole and missed by only a head. This will be the 3rd start off the bench, should be tighter and could be overlooked at the windows.

Race 9

1-E R Vincent (5-1)-Got on the point early on, set a soft pace and didn't look back. Hoosier invader won CalX debut and best to respect chances for another picture.
2-Skyway Raider (9/2)-Corbin trainee followed a similar script as #1 but the pace was lively and was strong through the wire. This will be the 2nd start after a claim and looks like a major player.
3-Western Devil (15-1)-Plano steers for the Roland barn. Last week, broke slowly and sat at the back of the pack turning for home but then paced hard to the wire. Plano may leave and has enough gate speed to be put in play early.
6-Wild Again (3-1)-Roland steers his pupil in 3rd start off the bench. Should be in the mix but will need the right trip from out here and might be over bet.

Race 10

2-Fox Valley B Gump (3-1)-Was able to win last week at 9/5 with a 56.1 back half. Had been facing better and looks like a repeat is a distinct possibility but $3k claimers are often inconsistent so will include others.
3-Fly Away (6-1)-11-year-old needed last, was wide down the lane and was no match for #2. Plested trainee is usually in the mix at the wire versus this class and will look for a better try tonight.
8-Lincoln (6-1)-No one in this field has much gate speed and Kennedy should be able to get a decent seat. Veteran doesn't win often but this is the 3rd start off the bench, a soft spot and the price should be right to take a swing.

Race 11

5-Brighten Your Life (5/2)-Makes 2nd start since August and drops to a spot to shine. Usually races in the FM Open class and just missed last week versus the same. Should be ready for a picture if minds manners.
7-Dancingonthesand (6-1)-Comes off a sharp qualifier on 11/28, went the 2nd half in 56.2 and the last quarter in 27.1. Hasn't won in 2020 (0-10) but was facing Open company. Doesn't need to be fully dialed in to beat this crew.

0.20 Pick 4

1,2,6/1,2,3,6/2,3,8/5,7
Total Bet=$14.40

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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/4/20 December 4, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, December 4, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes.
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Twirling Fire; 4-Market Development; 8-Todaystheday

Forecast: In a maiden claiming turf sprint for juveniles, the known element looks ordinary so let’s go with a fresh face. Market Development, from the W. Ward barn, brought $60,000 as a yearling and shows up in a $25,000 seller to begin his career, not exactly an encouraging sign, but the son of Maclean’s Music has trained okay on grass at Palm Meadows in recent week so he should be fit enough and perhaps good enough to score at first asking for a trainer that hits with a superb 29% with first-time starters. For protection, you may also want to include on your rolling exotic ticket Twirling Fire and Todaystheday. The former is a Monmouth Park shipper by way of Tampa Bay Downs and has enough early speed to be dangerous at this five furlong trip, while the latter tries the lawn and softer company for a high percentage outfit and could easily be better than shown.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:04 ET Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: This maiden claiming $12,500 sprint for older horses is inscrutable and is best left alone. The logical top pick Makingalegacy is winless in 29 career starts, and that tells you all you need to know about the others. In a race in which nothing would surprise us, rolling exotic players can spread as deeply as their budget allows. We’ll pass.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Josefa; 5-Galileos Ballerina; 8-Antigone

Forecast: Antigone returns to turf and has form in California last year on grass that makes her the one to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 two-turner for fillies and mares. With patient handling, the daughter of Carpe Diem should be capable of producing the last run. Galileos Ballerina, in her third start off a layoff, drops to her lowest level and is another that should make her presence felt from off the pace. Josefa switches to P. Lopez, is comfortably drawn inside, has a prior win over the local lawn and projects to be close up (maybe even on the lead) throughout. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:03 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dream d’Oro; 3-Strong Ending; 7-Uncaptured King

Forecast: Here’s another spread race, this one a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Dream d’Oro has two career wins, both over the local main track, and shortens up a half-furlong after a respectable pace-setting runner-up effort at GPW in late October. Not much more will be needed today. Strong Ending was overmatched in starter allowance company last time out but isn’t today, and his speed figures over this main track during the summer makes him the one to fear most. Uncaptured King, comfortably drawn outside, is another with a pair of local wins on his resume and should have every chance to outrun his morning line of 10-1 with a good stalking trip.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 2:36 ET Grade: B-
Use: 6-Truly; 11-Carmellia Gal

Forecast: Truly finished in the money in each of her previous six starts prior to being stopped on and the daughter of Will Take Charge, in her first outing since April, seems properly spotted by a barn that has good stats in a limited sample with comebackers. The work tab at the Classic Mile training center in Ocala is brief, but we’re going to assume she’s fit and ready, and she does have back speed figures that are better than par for this maiden $20,000 level. Camellia Gal returns to grass after a couple of off-the-turf outings and though poorly drawn does have form that makes her a contender. We’re expecting her to be on or near the lead throughout despite her outside draw. We’re try to survive and advance using just these two.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:06 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-True Identity; 8-Exxtop

Forecast: Though beaten as the favorite in a slightly softer maiden claimer at GPW, Exxtop deserves a chance to make amends in this modest extended sprint for juveniles, though at 8/5 on the morning line he’ll not offer a whole lot of wagering value. The son of Exaggerator projects to settle just off the leaders and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. P. Lopez stays aboard. True Identity, in the frame in his last pair though considerably slower on speed figures than our top pick, is gradually improving and should at least hit the board again.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 3:36 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Shining Through; 3-Sharetheblame; 5-Light Fury; 6-Cark

Forecast: This messy $20,000 turf claimer requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go four-deep and hope that’s sufficient. Light Fury won his only previous turf outing with authority over the local lawn two runs back, and with this return to the sod in his first start since mid-September the Wicked Strong gelding should fire his best shot for a new barn that is capable with layoff runners. The stable’s “go-to” rider M. Vasquez takes the call. Cark, returning off a 10 week vacation, has good tactical speed and should have every chance from a pace-stalking position. His numbers aren’t great but at least they’re going in the right direction. Sharetheblame, quite popular at the claim box of late, goes for the A. Sano barn (22%, flat-bet profit with this angle) and has a prior win over the Gulfstream Park turf course. He’s a horse without at a definitive style but has back numbers that make him dangerous. Shining Through is just 1-for-18 but his speed figures are comparatively strong and with some help up front and good racing luck he looks like the best of the deep closers.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Warrior’s Pride; 5-Tiger

Forecast: Warrior’s Pride earned a giant speed figure breaking his maiden at GPW last month and this Poseidon’s Warrior colt looks quick enough score right back in this allowance optional claiming affair for 2-year-olds. The low percentage connections and today’s extra half-furlong will keep the price honest. Tiger has modest speed figures but project to enjoy an ideal pace-prompting trip outside and have his chance when the pressure is turned out. He’ll race without blinkers for the first time in his five race career so we’re expecting rating tactics to be employed.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 4:36 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Flowmotion; 5-Rhythmia

Forecast: Flowmotion, a five-time winner over the Gulfstream Park turf course, lands the good rail and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip in this entry-level middle distance turf event for older horses. The J. Cibelli barn is terrific with layoff runners (28%, powerful ROI), so in his first start since early August the veteran gelding should be hard to beat. When last seen three months ago Rhythmia produced a nice score vs. softer state-bred foes over the local lawn that earned a career top speed figure, and if he returns to that form (and we suspect he will) the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained gelding should be running on strongly late.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 5:06 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Positive Phil; 5-Small Hope; 12-Lets Play Hardball

Forecast: The finale is a chaotic grass grab bag for restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claimers. Nothing would surprise us. Positive Phil projects to enjoy a good stalking, ground-saving trip and though moving up from the $12,500 level has numbers that make him dangerous in this league. The son of Paynter also has a prior win over the course and this jockey-trainer team (E. Jaramillo/J. Avila) always has been formidable. Small Hope always has preferred to run second or third rather than win but the Delaware Park invader attracts hot-riding P. Lopez and is a strong fit on figures. Lets Play Hardball is drawn much farther out than we’d prefer but shows a healthy work/race pattern for M. Maker, picks up L. Saez, and has run well over this course in the past. If he can negotiate any kind of decent trip this Constitution gelding will be the one to fear most.
*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

December 4, 2020: Stronach 5 Picks

December 3, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $68,683 to 7 winning tickets, and the nation’s best bet returns this Friday, December 4 with another potentially lucrative sequence. Three races from opening week at Gulfstream Park’s Championship Meet join a pair from the Maryland Jockey Club at Laurel Park. The $1 base wager has a low 12% takeout, insuring hefty value for those who take it down.


handicapper Jeremy Plonk adds his comments and possible inclusions, formulating recommended tickets based on the app and human input.


LAUREL RACE 8 (3:49PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 6 FURLONGS

5 – Phantom Ro (30% W)
8 – Tale of E Dubai (16% W)
3 – Bull Shark (13% W)
4 – Nova Boy (12% W)

Notable: The 30% win rate and 14-point spread for Phantom Ro both are most in today’s Stronach 5 sequence. It could be a bold single to start, according to 1/ST BET, as Phantom Ro also has won 3 of 5 starts at Laurel Park. Bull Shark offers an interesting alternative for a jockey-trainer combination successful in Maryland this year. Tale of E Dubai changes trainers to a less successful barn since being claimed.

GULFSTREAM RACE 8 (4:06PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 6 FURLONGS

5 – Tiger (29% W)
6 – Paladio (27% W)
3 – Carson City Kid (16% W)
2 – Warrior’s Pride (12% W)

Notable: The 29% win rate is second-highest in today’s Stronach 5, though the 2-point spread among the top pair of choices is the narrowest in the sequence. This may be a two-deep situation based on 1/ST BET. Tiger should be rolling early and hoping to ration his speed will be leading jockey Luis Saez. Carson City Kid figures to press the early issue for respected connections, but has some distance questions. Paladio actually gets the best set-up to finish, along with price player Famous Gent.

LAUREL RACE 9 (4:18PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE

6 – Cassey’s Girl (27% W)
1 – Embrace a New Day (15% W)
9 – Creative Alibi (15% W)
3 – Lady Macho (11% W)

Notable: The 12-point spread from first to second choice is second-highest in today’s Stronach 5, and comes with a juicy 6-1 morning line proposition in Cassey’s Girl. Expected favorite Lady Macho doesn’t get respect from the algorithm off her Finger Lakes form, but those shippers dropping from allowance to Laurel claimers have had solid success in recent years. The Boss of You doesn’t rate highly by the app, but appears to be a solid fit on the drop in class. If 1/ST BET is right, this is a great place to take a stand and separate those with faith from the pack.

GULFSTREAM RACE 9 (4:36PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

8 – Myamanoi (23%W)
1 – Flowmotion (19% W)
4 – Jolting Joe (14% W)
3 – Starship Aramis (11% W) *main track only*

Notable: The 23% win rate for Myamanoi is lowest among all top choices in today’s Stronach 5. This appears a good race by the numbers and on paper to spread your tickets. Myamanoi was a good fourth over this course in the Dania Beach Stakes this spring and lures local leading rider Luis Saez. Flowmotion has strong local form for high-percentage connections.

GULFSTREAM RACE 10 (5:06PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

5 – Small Hope (26% W)
13 – Scar (20% W) *main track only*
9 – Captain D (12% W)
12 – Let’s Play Hardball (8% W)

Notable: Top choice Small Hope’s trainer Kent Sweezey has been on a roll in South Florida the past few months, and won both races he entered opening day Wednesday. With 1/ST BET’s second choice Scar entered for main-track only, there’s a wide swath between Small Hope and the rest. Morning line favorite Let’s Play Hardball figures to be a major underlay based on the algorithm, and won easily last out on dirt while now going back to turf. Longshot seekers give Captain D (20-1 ML) a longer look for an exotics share.

OUR TICKETS

Larger Budget Stronach 5 Ticket

5,8 with 5,6 with 6,3,8 with ALL with 5 = $96

Smaller Budget Stronach 5 Ticket

5 with 5,6 with 6 with ALL with 5 = $16

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Royal Thunder
Forward player has been a decent fit with this kind in recent starts, and he'll probably have a go of it on the front end with these. Chance.


#5 Wye Mumbo
He'll probably get a bit overbet with these off the big run last time out, but he's stepping up to try winners for the first time and probably won't have an easy lead to himself again like he did last out.


#1 Fast Cash
Steps up off the claim, but the recent form is pretty reliable, and he should be able to work out a trip tracking the pace from the inside.


Race Summary
Royal Thunder should be in the mix from the start here, and if he doesn't take too much heat in the early going, he might stick around at a fair price.


Laurel Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#4 Positive Force
Meets a couple of decent pace players in here, and she has the style to land a perfect, spying trip from close range while the pace players battle it out.


#3 Suzysellsseashells
Owns a win over the track and exits an easy score at Charles Town. Not sure she's getting quite the amount of pace she needs to get the job done here, though.


#6 Hydra
Speed should be in the mix from the start, and she does own a mild rating gear that could prove useful if the other speeds want to knock heads in the early going.


Race Summary
Positive Force should be able to get the right kind of trip with these, and she has been reliable when facing similar in recent starts.


Laurel Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Odds On
Should offer a fair price here for the 0-for connections, and he has a bit of versatility with running lines that stack up nicely here after the win last time out.


#3 Bull Shark
He has been facing some better groups than this in recent starts, and he should be in line for a really nice run of things from midpacck.


#4 Nova Boy
Didn't miss by much when chasing the top choice last time out, and he'll move into another capable barn off the claim today.


Race Summary
Odds On has a jockey that is 0-for-32 at the meet for a barn that is 0-for-24 here, but he actually has a decent claim on this one. If he can hold that form from the win last time out, he's in the mix with these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 ROAR OF APPROVAL
Chased fave through fast splits, looms the target in second start back.


#7 MYSTERY ISLAND
Plays to a steady beat, as 22/4-5-6 record this year indicates.


#8 SPICEBOMB
Held third as fave in fast-paced race, moves inside out.


Race Summary
Roar Of Approval chased the fleet-footed favorite to the stretch before fading. He can go a longer way up front in his second start after five months away. Play 5-7 and 5-8 exactas.


Freehold - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#3 SWEET YOU
Should get right setup for repeat victory, today’s Best Bet.


#5 VINTAGE GAL
Set all the fractions, ran second against top one, figures to have front-end company.


#1 FEAR MY SHADOW
Finished second in 7 of 22 starts this year, draws rail again.


Race Summary
Sweet You sat a pocket trip and surged late past pace-setting Vintage Gal. She should get a livelier flow today and stands a good chance to win again. Play 3-1 and 3-5 exactas.


Meadowlands - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#1 IMPACTER
Deceptively good try off the claim, strong play from rail.


#9 CASINO CUTIE IT
Mare shipped in, ran second at 62-1 and has plenty of back-class to summon.


#6 STENHOUSE HANOVER
Sustained first-over rally but lost in three-horse photo finish.


Race Summary
Impacter improved for his new connections and ran well enough to win. But he was compromised by poor early position, slowed by dead cover on the final turn and rallied widest in the stretch. Play 1-6 and 1-9 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Paladio
Lands in an ideal spot for his late move; will get a solid pace in front of him and should be able to pass late.


#5 Tiger
Tired in his last two at GPW and gets Saez aboard; could be the one to catch.


#1 Famous Gent
Rallied mildly for third at GPW last out and broke his maiden here in June; tried stakes company but ran well in a similar level as this.


Race Summary
Paladio finished well from just off the pace in his last two wins and will follow fast fractions here.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#4 Jolting Joe
Rallied from far back and finished second in a stakes race at GPW last out; will bring the late heat and can run them down in this spot.


#5 Rhythmia
Got an ideal trip and won going away late time and lost a three-horse photo two back; brings in good form and can be around for the finish.


#8 Myamanoi
Has taken on strong company and has been off since September; has successful connections and fits here.


Race Summary
Jolting Joe comes from far back and may not have to close as much today; has competed well in good races.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#12 Lets Play Hardball
Crushed N2L company last time and takes a step up; gets Saez aboard and can be in the mix front the outset.


#7 Time for Trouble
Deep closer has won two of his last four and will make a run through the final quarter.


#2 Positive Phil
Closed well, took a brief lead in the stretch and lost a photo for the win last time; showed improvement from previous races and continued progress will make him tough here.


Race Summary
Lets Play Hardball has the speed to get into a good position from the outside and can rush into contention not long after the start; good chance for a repeat win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park



Laurel Park - Race 4

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) /10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7) 20 cent RAINBOW PICK 6 (RACES 4-5-6-7-8-9) / $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5



Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 63 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 1:53P


(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED LASIX WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SHABANG is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLYIN IT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SHABANG: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designat ion or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TRIPLE DIGIT: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/sur face. MAGIC ELECTION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.



4

FLYIN IT

3/1


9/2




1

SHABANG

6/1


9/2




3

TRIPLE DIGIT

5/2


7/1




2

MAGIC ELECTION

5/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

SHABANG

1


6/1

Front-runner

0


0


37.9


37.9


31.4




2

MAGIC ELECTION

2


5/1

Stalker

63


44


41.8


41.8


32.8




3

TRIPLE DIGIT

3


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


36.0


51.2


43.2




5

MIKEY'S JEWEL

5


5/1

Trailer

0


0


32.2


32.2


24.7




4

FLYIN IT

4


3/1

Trailer

64


58


24.5


44.7


38.2




6

NICOLAR

6


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

75


63


44.7


44.7


39.2




7

PERFECTA STORM

7


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

60


32


19.2


19.2


6.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct



Aqueduct - Race 3

Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double Wagers



Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $82,000 • Post: 1:18P


(UP TO $14,268 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT ONE MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * GAUGUIN (GER): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SCANNO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BRAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MICROSECOND: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



1A

GAUGUIN (GER)

5/1


5/1




3

SCANNO

9/5


6/1




2

BRAY

5/2


6/1




2B

MICROSECOND

5/2


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

SINGAPORE TRADER

2


9/2

Front-runner

97


95


98.4


88.6


76.1




2B

MICROSECOND

12


5/2

Front-runner

99


97


96.0


93.3


81.8




6

STRIKING SPEED

5


5/1

Front-runner

92


86


92.9


59.7


43.2




5

WINTERS BACK

4


2/1

Front-runner

91


93


74.3


85.0


73.0




9

DUDLEY SQUARE

9


2/1

Alternator/Front-runner

95


87


68.2


90.3


72.8




3

SCANNO

1


9/5

Stalker

101


101


96.8


94.4


88.4




1

WILL SING FOR WINE

3


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

96


92


55.3


84.6


72.6




7

TURBO DRIVE

7


12/1

Trailer

95


94


87.6


86.6


73.1




10

IL PRIMO SOLE (GB)

11


15/1

Trailer

98


95


86.0


86.0


71.0




1A

GAUGUIN (GER)

6


5/1

Trailer

101


96


82.2


95.4


87.9




2

BRAY

10


5/2

Trailer

101


100


71.0


92.6


84.6




8

FIRST LINE

8


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

91


86


82.4


79.0


60.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 DASH FOR CORONITAS 5/1




# 5 MISS FAST ELYSE 4/1




# 6 PAINT ME PATRIOT 9/2




DASH FOR CORONITAS looks strong to best this field. The Equibase Speed Figure of 77 from her most recent affair looks quite good in here. Sharp rider with conditioner numbers make this horse a sharp selection. MISS FAST ELYSE - Looks very good to be on or close to the front end at the first call. Ran a very solid last race. PAINT ME PATRIOT - Carrizales and Hernandez have a strong win percent together.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Fair Grounds - Race #8 - Post: 4:23pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#10 CHINATOWN NANCY (ML=6/1)
#6 WAR FALCON (ML=4/1)
#5 MS SATCH MO (ML=5/1)


CHINATOWN NANCY - Finished off the board last out at Remington Park, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think she's got a chance. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another notice that this equine is the class of the race. WAR FALCON - This trainer brings horses to the grass in shape and ready to win, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions. Filly made a nice late run going 5 furlongs on November 4th. I have to like her chances stretching out today. MS SATCH MO - Don't throw this animal out due to her last race at Indiana Downs where she finished seventh on a track listed as good. Expect much better today. Amoss adds Lasix for the second time today. Should help right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KLAYTON'S KANDY (ML=5/2), #12 MASKED MANDATE (ML=8/1),

KLAYTON'S KANDY - This animal hasn't been around in either of her last couple of races. MASKED MANDATE - The sixth place result in the last event was not the best.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - WAR FALCON - Beware of this filly. Cox gives her Lasix for the 2nd straight time. My extensive database says this horse should perform well today.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #10 CHINATOWN NANCY on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

10 with [5,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6,10] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[5,6,10] with [5,6,10] with [3,5,6,8,10] with [3,5,6,8,10] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard Event: (307285) Bellarmine at (307286) Duke
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 4, 2020 7PM EST
Play: 1H Duke -16.5 (-115)
307286 Bellarmine at Duke
First game of the season for new Atlantic Sun entrant Bellarmine, who must face the Duke dynasty right out of the game. This is a young team with no seniors on the roster. Overall 8 of the expected players on this roster are underclassmen.
Duke has had a habit of building a big first half lead, and then coasting down the stretch with bench players. Off a home loss to Michigan State, we see that happening here. Lay this first half number with the Dukies.
PLAY DUKE FIRST HALF

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Turfway Park



12/04/20, TP, Race 6, 8.42 ET
12/04/20,TP,6,6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:15:02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $33,000 (includes up to $15,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of $18,600 Since November 4 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $17,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
7
Upham
12/1
Rocco. Jr. J
Vanden Berg Brittany A
TFC
278
29.50
1.38/$1


098.3662
4
Peruvian Boy
3/1
Bowen R
Correas. IV Ignacio


278
29.50
1.38/$1


097.9063
8
Equal Justice(b-)
12/1
Prescott R A
Patterson Jennifer
S
410
28.05
1.21/$1


097.7710
3
That Quality
5/2
Jimenez A
Thomas Jonathan
JE
278
29.50
1.38/$1


096.6783
5
King Theo
4/1
Bejarano R
Vaccarezza Carlo


278
29.50
1.38/$1


094.9489
2
Hug the Munny
12/1
Canchari A L
Ortiz John Alexander
WL
278
29.50
1.38/$1


093.6750
9
Kierkegaard
6/1
Cannon D
Sisterson Jack


410
28.05
1.21/$1


093.5989
6
Clear to Close
20/1
Esquivel E
Meraz Antonio


410
28.05
1.21/$1


090.6970
1
Mutafaany
6/1
Gonzalez S
Bush George S.


410
28.05
1.21/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 0.00, ROI 0.00/$1
. . . .
100.0000 7 Upham
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]LastRaceDistanceIsNotLessThanToday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 12 UNION DANCE 7/2




# 11 BARHOPSKY 10/1




# 1 GIT ON YOUR PULPIT 6/1




UNION DANCE is my choice. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Tamayo running at this distance are the best in this field. Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this equine a solid contender. BARHOPSKY - His 71 average has this gelding with among the most respectable speed figures for this race. When Morfin uses Guce there's a good chance for winnings. GIT ON YOUR PULPIT - Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 80 speed figure earned in his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Siefken Event: (825) South Dakota State at (826) Bradley
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 4, 2020 8PM EST
Play: Total Over 137.5 (-110)
My numbers have this 74-72 Bradley, a total of 146. That is a 9.5 point discrepancy which is enough to make a value bet. There are a few non-math factors that give me a little trepidation here. Namely the fact that Bradley has really good defense, but there is enough value to bet a half unit since the numbers are so off. Bet one half unit on the Over 137.5 in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Dec 04 '20, 6:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Kent State vs Virginia
Play on: Virginia -20 -110 at Bovada

1 Dimer on Virginia -20 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Dec 04 '20, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Toledo vs Eastern Michigan
Play on: Eastern Michigan +3 -108 at Draft Kings

1* on Eastern Michigan +3 -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander Dec 04 '20, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Jacksonville vs Georgia
Play on: Georgia -14 -110 at YouWager

1* CBB - Jacksonville/Georgia *FREE PICK* on Georgia -14
Most will have a hard time backing the Bulldogs early on this season. Georgia has to replace the No. 1 overall pick in Anthony Edwards and weren't exactly a great team with Edwards on the floor a year ago. I think it has the Bulldogs showing some value against a far inferior team in Jacksonville. Tom Crean did a nice job retooling the roster and while it's come against sub-par competition they have looked good offensively in their first two. Jacksonville is 3-0, but have no played a team ranked inside the Top 300 in KenPom. The Dolphins also returned just 1 starter from a team that won 14 games last year and is picked to finish near the basement of the Atlantic Sun this season. I really think this number should be closer to 20. Bet the Bulldogs -14!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Dec 04 '20, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Wisconsin vs Marquette
Play on: Wisconsin -4 -115 at jazz

PICK - Wisconsin Badgers -4
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 805
I'll take my chances here with Wisconsin going on the road and securing a win and cover as a slim 4-point favorite against Marquette. The Badgers returned 4 starters from a team that finished last season 9-1 to earn a share of the Big Ten regular-season title and No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament that never happened. I think this team's a little ticked off that it was Iowa and Illinois that was getting all the preseason hype.
Wisconsin has started out 3-0 with all 3 wins coming by double-digits. Marquette is 2-1 after losing at home in their last game to Oklahoma State. Golden Eagles could only manage 62 points against the Cowboys and now face one of the best defenses in the country in Wisconsin, who is currently No. 4 in defensive efficiency at KenPom.
This is also a Marquette team that lost a lot from last year's team, most notably one of the best players in the country in Markus Howard. Golden Eagles also lost by 16 at Wisconsin a year ago and while Wisconsin surged down the stretch of last season, Marquette went 1-6. I just think this is a much bigger gap in talent than the number here leads on. Give me the Badgers -4!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Dec 04 '20, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Wisconsin vs Marquette
Play on: Wisconsin -4½ -106 at pinnacle

Free Pick on Wisconsin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Dec 04 '20, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Valparaiso vs Purdue
Play on: UNDER 141 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Valparaiso vs Purdue under 141 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Dec 04 '20, 8:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | South Dakota State vs Bradley
Play on: Bradley PK -110 at Buckeye

1* Free Pick on Bradley PK -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Dec 04 '20, 8:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | South Dakota State vs Bradley
Play on: Bradley +1 -110 at William Hill

Free Play on Bradley +1 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Dec 04 '20, 8:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | UL-Lafayette vs Appalachian State
Play on: OVER 51 -110

1* Free Wiseguy Play on UL-Lafayette/Appalachian State over 51 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Dec 04 '20, 9:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Long Beach State vs Loyola Marymount
Play on: Loyola Marymount -7 -108 at pinnacle

1* Free Sharp Play on Loyola Marymount -7 -108
Friday's free college hoops play is on Loyola Marymount -7 at home against Long Beach State. Really got spot to jump on the Lions, who have been off since Monday. Each of Marymounts last two games were against Big Ten foe Minnesota on the road. The Lions showed well in both games. They only lost by 15 in the first meeting and then nearly won the rematch in a 3-point setback. Getting reps in against a quality team like the Gophers should pay off big for the Lions, especially against a Long Beach State team that will be playing it's first game of the season. Play Loyola Marymount -7!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers Dec 04 '20, 9:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Long Beach State vs Loyola Marymount
Play on: Loyola Marymount -7 -105 at betonline

The set-up: LBSU was 11-21 last year. This is its first game of the current season. Loyola Marymount opened with an 85-83 win over Southern Utah to open its season, before then falling to Minnesota twice. Note though that Loyola Marymount lost the second game by just three points, taking the Golden Gophers right down to the final moments.
The picks: LBSU returns nearly all of its scoring from last season, but I still don't think it'll be enough vs. this already tested home side. Teams which have been affected by COVID-19 issues have struggled to start the season and I think that's the case here for LBSU. Consider laying the points with Loyola Marymount on Friday night.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on Loyola Marymount.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

327LA LAFAYETTE -328 APPALACHIAN ST
LA LAFAYETTE is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.

333BOISE ST -334 UNLV
BOISE ST is 34-14 ATS (18.6 Units) in road games vs. losing teams since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Week 14 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday Dec. 3 and concludes on Sunday, Dec. 6.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Friday, Dec. 4

UL-LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
Even after big win vs. Troy last weekend, App having a miserable 2020 vs. spread for new HC Clark, just 2-7 vs. line, now 2-8 last 10 vs. number since late 2019.
If Ragin’ Cajuns getting points note 8-3-1 dog mark for Billy Napier since 2018.

Tech Edge: UL-Lafayette, especially if dog, based on recent trends.

BOISE STATE at UNLV (CBSSN, 8:30 p.m.)
After Wyoming loss, UNLV 0-5 SU and vs. line in 2019 (counts SJSU as loss).
Rebs 2-6 vs. spread last 8 as host (0-3 at Allegiant Stadium TY).
Boise 15-8 vs. line last 23 as MW visitor.

Tech Edge: Boise State, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday’s games
Louisiana (8-1) @ Appalachian State (7-2)
— Louisiana won its last five games, scoring 40.6 ppg.
— Cajuns won all five road games, also scoring 40.6 ppg.
— Cajuns have 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Louisiana has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cajuns have a senior QB with 27 career starts.
— Louisiana is 7-2 ATS as a road underdog.

— App State won six of its last seven games, since 17-7 loss at Marshall.
— ASU allowed 17.3 ppg in its last six games.
— App State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— ASU has 115 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a senior QB with 35 career starts.
— ASU is 12-9-1 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite.

— App State won last eight series games, eight by 10+ points.
— Ragin’ Cajuns are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Boone.
— Underdogs covered three of last four series games.

Boise State (4-1) @ UNLV (0-5) - canceled
— Boise State scored 40+ points in all four of its wins.
— Broncos are minus-4 in turnovers in their last three games.
— Boise has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Broncos have 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has a soph QB with 11 career starts.
— Since 2010, Boise State is 35-17 ATS as a road favorite.

— UNLV allowed 38 ppg in losing all five of its games.
— Rebels have home losses by 18-13-31 points.
— UNLV has 8 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Rebels have 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNLV has a soph QB with 16 career starts.
— Since 2010, UNLV is 5-11 ATS as a home underdog.

— Boise State won last five series games (2-3 ATS)
— Broncos won last three trips to Las Vegas, by 25-28-27 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: Georgia St -3½ over Charlotte

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist Jim Feist's Comp Pick, FRIDAY DECEMBER 4, 2020
12/04 05:30 PM PT / 8:30 PM ET

CF (327) UL - LAFAYETTE VS (328) APPALACHIAN ST

Take: UNDER

Reason: This is a rematch of the last two Sun Belt Championship games. Louisiana will play for another belt while App State will miss out due to their loss to Coastal Carolina. The App State Mountaineers look to spoil the Top 25 ranking of Louisiana here tonight. Louisiana coming off a big blowout of UL Monroe last week, 70-20. Louisiana is 8-1 this year, their only loss coming to Coastal Carolina who they will meet in the championship game. App State also lost to Coastal Carolina a few weeks ago, 23-34. They also lost to Marshal earlier this year. App State won this game last year, 45-38 in a shootout despite Louisiana having 18 more plays. It was the three Louisiana turnover that made the difference. App State one of the better defensive teams, ranked 13th overall in the nation. Louisiana ranks 32nd nationally. Two good defenses here. Your free play is on the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: MINNESOTA -20½ over North Dakota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Friday's Free Selection: South Alabama/Auburn over 142 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins ROZ's FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2020
Free Pick
College Basketball

803. Toledo -3 (4 PT / 7 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports
Friday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Charlotte 49ers + 3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Friday's Free Play: Kent State Golden Flashes + 19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the Toledo Rockets -2½ over Eastern Michigan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play FRIDAY, December 4, 2020
College Basketball
805. Wisconsin -4.5 (4 PT / 7 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Friday Selection Is

MARYLAND -13½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Friday : Take TULSA -6½ over UT-Arlington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Friday

Charlotte +3' College BB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Friday's Free Pick: Bradley Braves pick 'em

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports

Friday Free Play: Virginia -19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

FRI: CBB Auburn -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Last Call Friday's Free Play: Long Beach State + 7 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports FREE PICK 11/4 CBB MICHIGAN ST UNDER 152

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Friday: PURDUE (CBB) -16½ over Valparaiso

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Friday: Maryland Terrapins - 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Friday: UL-Lafayette OVER 50½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Anthony Sports

Free Selection: FRI

CBB MARYLAND -13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for FRIDAY is on the

CBB CS LONG BEACH +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hollywood Anthony

Your FRIDAY Free Play from Hollywood Anthony

CBB SETON HALL +1