Sunday 12/13/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Betting Recap - Week 13
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Giants (+11, ML +420) at Seahawks, 17-12
Browns (+4, ML +180) at Titans, 41-35
Lions (+3, ML +135) at Bears, 34-30

The largest favorites to cover

Dolphins (-10) vs. Bengals, 19-7
Packers (-8.5) vs. Eagles, 30-16
Colts (-3) at Texans, 26-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers game was crazy if you were a side bettor supporting the visitors. The Eagles fell behind 14-3 at halftime, and 20-3 after 45 minutes. If you had Philadelphia +8.5, it wasn't a great feeling.

However, in the second half, Eagles head coach Doug Pedersen replaced struggling QB Carson Wentz with rookie QB Jalen Hurts, mainly for his mobility due to struggles and injuries along the offensive line. Things were looking up, as Hurts tossed his first NFL touchdown, and the Eagles got a 73-yard punt return from another rookie just 82 seconds later, as WR Jalen Reagor housed it to make it a game, 23-16. The Eagles were covering with 6:30 to go in regulation.

However, Eagles side bettors already know it wouldn't last. RB Aaron Jones found some daylight with just under three minutes remaining. He juked, danced down the sidelines, eluded several tacklers and received key blocks for a highlight-reel 77-yard back-breaking touchdown run to make it 30-16. Suddenly, 'under' (50.5) bettors were sweating. Hurts got the ball back and they were driving in Green Bay territory late. However, Hurts tossed an interception to stymie the drive, so Packers side bettors and under bettors were breathing a sigh of relief.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The game between the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans game was one to remember. Or one to forget, depending upon your wager.

At halftime, the Colts (-3) led 24-20, so 'over' (50) bettors were feeling overly excited, perhaps even looking ahead to their late-window bets or even bumping them up on an assumed victory. Surely there would be at least seven points for an easy 'over' in the second half, right?

Well, not only did those seven points for the over result never come, we didn't even get any offensive points at all. The offensive spigot was turned off tight, and we saw just one safety in the fourth quarter. After 44 total points in the first 30 minutes, yep, we had just TWO in the second 30 minutes. Unreal loss if you were holding an 'over' ticket.

We should have had an over, though. And Texans side bettors were also left shaking their heads at the end of this one. The Texans had 2nd and goal from the Indianapolis 2, but QB Deshaun Watson fumbled, and the Colts covered it up for the win, cover and they helped the 'under' hang in there, too.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Cincinnati Bengals-Miami Dolphins (43), and the result was never in doubt. The Bengals fired out to a 7-0 lead, as WR Tyler Boyd hauled in a long touchdown from QB Brandon Allen. Unfortunately for the Bengals and their side bettors, the best receiver in stripes was ejected for his part in a brawl.

The game turned from there, as the Dolphins posted six in the second, going into the break down 7-6. It was all Dolphins from there, as they outscored the visitors 13-0 in the second half. Despite a low-scoring 19-7 win, they were able to cover the 10, too.

The highest total on Sunday was the Cleveland Browns-Tennessee Titans (54), and the 'over' was never in doubt here. Cleveland took a 10-0 lead after 15 minutes, and they piled up 28 points in the second quarter en route to a 38-7 halftime lead at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

After the Titans outscored the Browns 14-3 in the third quarter, we had a total of 55 points on the board, and 'over' tickets were already good to go. The Titans mounted a late flurry to cut it to 41-35, making moneyline bettors a little nervous, though.

In the first primetime game Sunday night, the Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs (51.5) game, surprisingly, was a defensive battle. The Chiefs had 10 points in the third quarter, but that was the only time either side had a double-digit total in a single quarter. We had just 38 total points on the board for the easy 'under' result.

With some rescheduling, the Washington Football Team-Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5) game and the originally scheduled Monday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) are still on tap, as is Tuesday's Dallas Cowboys-Baltimore Ravens (45) battle.

So far this season the under is 24-14 (63.2%) across 38 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 14

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Patriots hit the road in Week 13 and destroyed the Los Angeles Chargers by a 45-0 count, evening their overall record at 6-6 SU/ATS. Believe it or not, it's the first time this season the Patriots have covered in consecutive games. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 across the past four games for the Patriots, too.

New England is scheduled to stay in the Los Angeles area and they will face the Rams on Thursday night. The Rams are headed back from Arizona with a 38-28 win in tow. The 38 points marked a season high, and they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four outings. Against AFC East teams, the Rams are 0-2 SU/ATS so far this season.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans are coming off a 41-35 loss at home against the Browns. The Jaguars gave it their all in Minnesota, but they fell in overtime against the Vikings. Both sides will meet at TIAA Bank Field.

The Titans have won and covered back-to-back games on the road, winning as underdogs. They'll be favored in this one. Perhaps being favored isn't what they want. Tennessee is just 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four as a favorite.

These teams met back in Week 2, with the Titans hanging on for a 33-30 win over the Jaguars as seven-point favorites, another non-cover and 'over' (44.5) result. The over is 4-0 in the past four for Tennessee, and 9-1-1 across the past 11 for the Titans.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Packers held on for the 30-16 win and cover against the Eagles. It's the first time the Packers have covered in consecutive games, and they've done so as favorite of 7.5 or higher in each outing.

The Lions registered a 34-30 win on the road against the Bears, picking up the victory for interim head coach Darrell Bevell. In case you're scoring at home, interim coaches are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in their first game after taking the new reins.

These teams faced each other at Lambeau Field in Week 2, with the Packers doubling up the Lions 42-21 as seven-point favorites as the 'over' (51) connected.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Ravens blasted the Browns by a 38-6 score in Week 1, easily covering a seven-point number as the 'under' (47) connected.

Baltimore will actually be coming off a short week, as they're scheduled to play Tuesday against the Cowboys at M&T Bank Stadium in Balto. The Browns will have two more days to rest and recover. The Browns enter 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS across the past four outings overall.

The weather has been dismal in Cleveland for the past three games at FirstEnergy Stadium. They averaged just 12.7 PPG in the past three home games, played in two games with a wintry mix and windy conditions, and a steady rain last time out in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Looking ahead to Monday's weather forecast, it's supposed to snow for most of the day Sunday, and into Monday morning. It should change over to rain Monday afternoon before the precipitation pulls out. However, we still have a week before the forecast is fine tuned, and if the system slows down, perhaps weather also affects this one, keeping scores down. We'll see.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Odds Week 14: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Baker Mayfield and the Browns gave away almost all of a 38-7 lead against the Titans in Week 13, but held on for a 41-35 win. In Week 14, Cleveland opened as a 1-point home underdog to Baltimore.

NFL Week 13 won't wrap up until Tuesday night, but NFL Week 14 odds can't be stopped nor contained, with several games already seeing action. The bookend matchups are among the most noteworthy, with the New England Patriots meeting the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, and the Cleveland Browns hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 14 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 14 Odds

Patriots at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Los Angeles outgunned Arizona in Week 13, 38-28, while New England boatraced the L.A. Chargers 45-0 on the road. That made things a little more challenging for SuperBook oddsmakers.

"The Patriots destroyed the Chargers today, and we opened the Patriots a 5-point underdog vs. the Rams, which was a little lower than our look-ahead line," Murray said. "We took money on the Rams right away and bumped the line up to Rams -6. It should be a pretty-good-handle Thursday game. We will take money both ways."

There was no movement Sunday night on the total of 45.

Packers at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +8.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Green Bay had little trouble in a 30-16 home victory over Philadelphia, and Detroit scored two touchdowns inside the final three minutes to upend host Chicago 34-30. The SuperBook opened the Packers -8.5 and briefly went to -8 before returning to the opening number. The total was stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Titans at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7.5, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved
Tennessee laid a huge first-half egg Sunday against Cleveland, falling behind 38-7 at halftime, then nearly made it all up in a 41-35 Week 13 loss. Jacksonville was a 10-point underdog at Minnesota and forced overtime, but lost 27-24.

The Titans opened -7.5 at The SuperBook and dipped to -7 for a bit Sunday night, before returning to -7.5. The total was stable at 53.

Cowboys at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati took a 7-0 first-quarter lead at Miami, but that was it in a 19-7 loss. Dallas is playing the Week 13 waiting game, traveling to Baltimore for a Tuesday night contest. The SuperBook went ahead and posted Cowboys-Bengals, though, opening Dallas -3.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Cardinals at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York got one of the larger upsets of the season in Week 13, traveling to Seattle, fielding backup QB Colt McCoy and shocking the Seahawks 17-12. Arizona couldn't keep up with the L.A. Rams in a track-meet fourth quarter, losing 38-28. The Cardinals opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, with no line movement Sunday night.

Texans at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +3, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Both these squads fell short in Week 13, with Houston falling 26-20 to visiting Indianapolis and Chicago giving up two late touchdowns in a 34-30 home loss to Detroit. The SuperBook opened Houston -3 and moved to -2.5 within just a few minutes Sunday night. The total held at 46 Sunday night.

Broncos at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver made a respectable showing in the Week 13 Sunday nighter at Kansas City, losing 22-16. Meanwhile, Carolina is rested and ready, coming off a bye week that might allow for the return of star running back Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers opened -3.5 at The SuperBook, and the game came off the board once the Broncos kicked off against the Chiefs. The line will go back up Monday morning.

Vikings at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are coming off a bye week, while Minnesota is coming off back-to-back tight wins to stay in the NFC playoff picture. On Sunday, the Vikings escaped with a 27-24 overtime win laying 10.5 points against visiting Jacksonville.

"We opened the Bucs -6.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Vikings will be one of our bigger needs of the week, with the Bucs coming off a bye week and the Vikes looking so mediocre today."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 52.

Chiefs at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins +7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami didn't look particularly great as 10-point home chalk against Cincinnati, but notched a 19-7 victory. And Kansas City got much more than it expected as a 13-point home fave against Denver on Sunday night, holding on for a 22-16 victory.

"We opened Chiefs -7.5, and the game is off the board now with the Chiefs playing on Sunday Night Football," Murray said during the Denver-KC game. "The Dolphins will be one of our biggest needs of the week next Sunday. The Chiefs will be in every moneyline parlay and teaser."

Colts at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas nearly gave the New York Jets their first victory of the season, but the Raiders pulled out a 31-28 road win on a 46-yard Derek Carr-to-Henry Ruggs TD pass in the waning seconds Sunday. Meanwhile, Indianapolis held off Houston 26-20.

"We opened Raiders +3 and took some money on the 'dog, and moved them to +3 (-120)," Murray said. "Las Vegas was very, very fortunate to escape with a win today and will face a formidable Colts defense next week. I still think this will be one of the rare instances in which we are rooting for the favorite. This town loves betting on the Raiders."

Jets at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -14, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
New York's season of utter failure continued in Week 13, when the Jets (0-12 SU) allowed a 46-yard touchdown pass with five seconds remaining in a 31-28 home loss to Las Vegas. Seattle got stung Sunday, too, in a shocking 17-12 home loss as 11-point chalk against the New York Giants.

Still, SuperBook oddsmakers didn't hesitate to hang the Seahawks -14 against the Jets. Within about an hour, the line dropped to -13, then ticked up to -13.5 a few minutes later Sunday night. The total held firm at 47 Sunday night.

Falcons at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers +2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles suffered a 45-0 home drubbing at the hands of New England in Week 13, while Atlanta was dealt a 21-16 home loss by New Orleans. The SuperBook opened the Falcons -2.5, with a total of 49.5, and neither number moved Sunday night.

Saints at Eagles Odds
Opening line
Eagles +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans continues weathering the loss of Drew Brees, with backup Taysom Hill helping the Saints go 3-0 SU and ATS while stretching the team's overall streak to 5-0 SU and ATS. Now, there's a chance Brees could return this week from multiple cracked ribs.

The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5 against the Eagles, who in Week 13 fell at Green Bay 30-16 for their fourth consecutive loss (1-3 ATS). There was no line movement Sunday night.

Washington at 49ers Odds
Opening line
49ers -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Both these teams have Week 13 work to do, with San Francisco hosting Buffalo in the regularly scheduled Monday night game, and Washington traveling to Pittsburgh for a 5 p.m. ET Monday kickoff. The 49ers opened -4 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Steelers at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills +1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh and Buffalo also have unfinished Week 13 business. The undefeated Steelers host Washington in a 5 p.m. ET Monday kick, and the Bills meet the 49ers in a Monday night game moved to the Arizona Cardinals' home stadium due to COVID restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif.

"The Steelers are -1.5 for now, but both teams play Monday, so we may see an adjustment before this game," Murray said. "It sets up to be a big public play on the Steelers, and the house will likely need the Bills pretty big in this game."

Ravens at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cleveland was beating the daylights out of Tennessee at halftime Sunday, leading 38-7, but then had to hang on for a 41-35 victory. Meanwhile, Baltimore's Week 13 game isn't until Tuesday, when it hosts Dallas in a contest rescheduled due to the Ravens' COVID issues the past two weeks.

"We opened Ravens -1 and are still there. The Ravens play Tuesday night vs. Dallas, and if they lay another egg in that game, we may see Cleveland move to the favorite," Murray said. "The Browns are very quietly 9-3, and the public will be quick to abandon the Ravens if their offense keeps struggling."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 14: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Atlanta is 4-3 SU and ATS since firing head coach Dan Quinn in mid-October, due in larger part to the Falcons becoming much tougher on the defensive side of the ball.

What kind of Christmas shopper are you: Someone who waits until the last minute, picking through the discount DVD bin at your local late-night pharmacy on December 24? Or do you like to plan out your holiday gift giving, buying up the best deals back in September?

When it comes to the best NFL betting strategy, both last-minute and early-bird shoppers can benefit. The Week 14 odds have been released and these are our top NFL betting tips for the point spreads and totals to bet now, and the best lines to bet later.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

As of Sunday evening, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn is still employed. But after the Bolts were absolutely bombed by New England at home – losing 45-0 like some FCS cupcake visiting Alabama in September – the heat from his office chair can be seen from space.

Los Angeles has won just one game since November, with that lone victory coming against the New York Jets. And what’s worse is that the Chargers are 0-6 against the spread in that span. The Falcons, their Week 14 opponents, have won three of their last five with those two losses coming to rival New Orleans.

Atlanta knows all about the benefits of canning a crap coach and has been a different team since firing Dan Quinn back in mid-October. Since then, the Falcons are 4-3 SU and ATS and have been much tougher on the defensive side of the ball. During their 0-5 skid to start 2020, Atlanta allowed 32.2 points per game. That’s been trimmed to just over 20 points per outing in the last seven contests.

Regardless of Lynn's job security, this spread is going to go up quickly. Catch the Falcons under a field goal on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5): Bet Later

All aboard the Jalen Hurts hype train! The Eagles rookie passer and former Alabama/Oklahoma QB turned heads with his brief fourth-quarter contributions in Week 13’s loss to Green Bay. Hurts replaced the struggling Carson Wentz and brought Philadelphia within a touchdown before a 77-yard TD run from the Packers denied the backdoor cover.

The Saints added another chain to their now nine-game winning streak, upending the Falcons 21-16. And while NOLA covered for the sixth time during this run, it wasn’t an overly impressive win. New Orleans plays its third straight road game in Philadelphia, where the early forecast is calling for a wet and windy weekend in the City of Brotherly Love (keep an eye, since we’re still a week out). New Orleans has played outdoors just three times this season.

This spread opened Saints -6.5 and the vig is starting to climb on the visitor, indicating a move to a touchdown. If you think Hurts gets another go and are fading the Saints' road-heavy sked, wait it out and grab all the points you can with the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Over 55): Bet Now

Detroit just gave up 30 points to the Chicago Bears—a team that scored a collective 78 points in the month of November. The Lions have doled out points like 2020 hand sanitizer, giving up an average of 29.8 points per outing on the year, and now have the fun task of checking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who hung 42 points on Detroit back in Week 2.

Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in all but three games this season and has thrived when hitting the fast indoor tracks, averaging 36.5 points per game under a dome. The Cheeseheads have looked like the Swiss variety when away from Lambeau, allowing 28.8 points against as a visitor – fourth-most in the NFL – which has led to a 4-2 Over/Under mark on the road.

That Week 2 42-21 final score played Over the 51-point total and snapped a three-game Under run in this NFC North rivalry. However, the Packers and Lions have topped the total in seven of their last 10 matchups and this number is quickly climbing from 54.5 to 55 points. Jump on that Over now.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 52.5): Bet Later

This total opened 52.5 and there's a slight lean toward the Over with the early movement on the juice. That’s not surprising given how this Vikings defense is playing. However, on the other side of the ball is one of the tightest stop units in the land and an offense that's cooled off with the climate.

Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and hoping that hiatus can jump-start Tom Brady and the scoring attack. The Buccaneers averaged just over 24 points per game in November after posting 31.7 points an outing in the first two months of the schedule. Luckily, those offensive issues have been mopped up by a stop unit ranked third in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.

Minnesota managed to get past Jacksonville but needed an extra frame to pick up its fifth win in the past six games. The Vikes' production takes a significant dip when playing on the road, scoring nearly a touchdown less in the role of visitor (23.0 points per road game). Quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked great recently but has played some bullshit defenses over the past month. Cousins is staring down the barrel of one of the most disruptive stop units in the league in Week 14, with Tampa boasting 34 sacks and 20 takeaways.

If you like the Under, see if that shift in vig toward the Over manifests itself into an extra half-point or more before placing your bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, December 13

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GREEN BAY (9 - 3) at DETROIT (5 - 7) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 121-86 ATS (+26.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 151-192 ATS (-60.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 50-74 ATS (-31.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (8 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 11) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (3 - 8) at CINCINNATI (2 - 9 - 1) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 6) at NY GIANTS (5 - 7) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NY GIANTS are 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (4 - 8) at CHICAGO (5 - 7) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 57-88 ATS (-39.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (4 - 8) at CAROLINA (4 - 8) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 88-60 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 5) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 1) at MIAMI (8 - 4) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 44-20 ATS (+22.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 4) at LAS VEGAS (7 - 5) - 12/13/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 39-67 ATS (-34.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 37-62 ATS (-31.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (0 - 12) at SEATTLE (8 - 4) - 12/13/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 8) at LA CHARGERS (3 - 9) - 12/13/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 8 - 1) - 12/13/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (4 - 7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 6) - 12/13/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 0) at BUFFALO (8 - 3) - 12/13/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 14

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BALTIMORE (6 - 5) at CLEVELAND (9 - 3) - 12/14/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, December 13

Houston @ Chicago
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Chicago's last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Denver @ Carolina
Denver
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Carolina
Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Denver

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Arizona @ NY Giants
Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Kansas City @ Miami
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

Dallas @ Cincinnati
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Dallas

NY Jets @ Seattle
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Indianapolis @ Las Vegas
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Green Bay @ Detroit
Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay

Washington @ San Francisco
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
San Francisco is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Washington

Atlanta @ LA Chargers
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 9 games

New Orleans @ Philadelphia
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 13 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Monday, December 14

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Baltimore
Baltimore is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday’s games
Green Bay (9-3) @ Lions (5-7)
— Green Bay won four of last five games, scoring 31-41-30 points in last three.
— Packers scored 30+ points in eight of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 68-142 third down plays (47.9%)
— Packers are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Green Bay games.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in 8 of their last 9 games.

— Detroit won last week, in interim coach Bevell’s debut as HC.
— Lions upset Chicago LW, snapping an 0-4-1 ATS skid.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in five of its last six games.
— Lions are 6-12 ATS in last 18 games as home underdogs, 0-3 TY.
— Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
— Five of last six Lion games went over the total.

— Lions lost 42-21 in Green Bay in Week 2; Packers ran for 259 yards.
— Green Bay won last three series games, by 1-3-21 points.
— Packers lost four of last six visits to the Motor City.

Tennessee (8-4) @ Jaguars (1-11)
— Tennessee split its last eight games, after a 4-0 statt.
— Titans won four of five road games, winning by 2-1-6OT-19 points.
— Titans were +10 in turnovers the first five games, are minus-2 since.
— Tennessee was down 38-7 at halftime LW, battled back, lost 41-35.
— Over is 8-2-1 in Titans’ last 11 games.
— Titans are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite, 0-3 TY.

— Jaguars lost its last 11 games, but covered four of last five.
— Four of their last five losses were by 4 or fewer points.
— Jacksonville lost five of its six home games, upsetting Colts in Week 1.
— Jaguars are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 3-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Glennon is 6-18 as an NFL starter; he averaged 6.7/6.0 yards/pass attempt in his first two starts (4.0/3.4 previous two games).

— Jaguars lost 33-30 in Nashville in Week 2; they haven’t won since.
— Jacksonville outgained Titans 480-354 but was minus-2 in turnovers.
— Tennessee won six of last seven series games.
— Titans lost four of last six visits to Jacksonville.

Arizona (6-6) @ NJ Giants (5-7)
— Arizona lost four of five games since their bye week.
— Cardinals allowed 30.7 ppg in their last six games.
— Murray has total of only 61 rushing yards in last three games.
— Redbirds are 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Over is 4-2 in last six Cardinal games.
— Redbirds get WR Fitzgerald back from COVID list.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 12 games.

— Giants won their last four games, covered eight of last nine.
— Giants are 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS outside their division.
— Seven of Giants’ last eight games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— In their last four games, Big Blue ran ball for 162.3 ypg.
— Giants are 3-12 ATS in last 15 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

— Arizona won last three series games, by 11-23-6 points.
— Cardinals won last three visits to play Giants here, by 21-21-17 points.

Houston (4-8) @ Chicago (5-7)
— Texans won three of their last five games, after a 1-6 start.
— Texans are 2-4 SU on road this year, beating Lions/Jaguars.
— Houston are 0-7 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans had 20+ points at the half in four of last five games.
— Over is 4-1-1 in Houston’s road games this year.
— Texans are 2-3-2 ATS in last seven games as road favorites, 1-1 TY.

— Bears lost their last six games, after a 5-1 start.
— Last three games, Chicago allowed 7.7/7.3/9,1 ypa.
— Bears gave up 10 TD’s on opponents’ last 17 drives.
— Bears are 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
— Chicago has only four takeaways in its last six games (-7).
— Under is 4-2 in Bears’ home games this season.

— Houston won all four series games.
— Texans won 24-5/13-6 in their two visits to Chicago.

Broncos (4-8) @ Panthers (4-8)
— Denver lost six of last seven games, giving up 28.1 ppg.
— Denver lost four of six road games SU (4-2 ATS)
— Broncos allowed 31 ppg in their last three road games.
— Broncos are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs, 4-2 TY.
— Denver turned ball over 17 times (-10) in their last seven games.
— Three of their last four games stayed under total.

— Carolina lost six of its last seven games; they covered 3 of last 4.
— Panthers’ lost four of six home games SU, beating Cardinals/Lions.
— Panthers are 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as home favorites, 0-2 TY.
— Carolina is 0-8 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers is 4-2 ATS in last six post-bye games.
— Carolina is 0-4 this year in games decided by 4 or fewer points.

— Denver won five of six series games, including 24-10 win in Super Bowl 50.
— Broncos split pair of visits to Charlotte; their last visit here was in 2012.

Minnesota (6-6) @ Tampa Bay (7-5)
— Vikings won five of six games, since their bye week.
— Minnesota covered four of five road games this season.
— Last week was first time this year Vikings won field position.
— Minnesota’s last three games were decided by total of 7 points.
— Minnesota is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games as road underdogs, 3-1 TY.
— All five Viking road games stayed under the total.

— Buccaneers lost three of their last four games.
— Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Last two games, Bucs threw 89 passes, ran ball only 31 times.
— Bucs lost last three home games, to Saints/Rams/Chiefs.
— Under Arians, Tampa Bay is 1-6-2 ATS as home favorites, 1-2-1 TY.
— Last five games, Bucs were outscored 99-44 in first half.

— Vikings won last two series games, 19-13OT/34-17
— Minnesota lost six of last seven visits here; their last win in Tampa was in 2014.

Kansas City (11-1) @ Miami (8-4)
— Chiefs won their last seven games, last four by total of 15 points.
— Kansas City won all six of its road games this year (3-3 ATS)
— Chiefs are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite, 2-3 TY.
— Last four games, Kansas City allowed 25.5 ppg, are 0-4 ATS.
— Chiefs averaged at least 7.6 ypa in each of its last five games.
— Kansas City trailed at halftime in three of last four games.

— Dolphins won/covered seven of their last eight games.
— Dolphins won/covered their last four home games.
— Miami are 2-4 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
— Miami is 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a home dog, 2-1 TY.
— Dolphins have 11 takeaways in last five games (+6)
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

— Chiefs won last two series games, 34-15/29-13
— Chiefs won two of last three visits to Miami.
— This isn’t playoff game, but Dolphins are 3-0 vs KC in playoff games.

Colts (8-4) @ Raiders (7-5)
— Colts won five of their last seven games.
— Indy won four of its last five road games.
— Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Indy is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite, 4-1 TY.
— Six of their last eight games went over the total.
— Last four games, Colts outscored opponents 55-10 in 2nd half.

— Las Vegas lost two of last three games, giving up 35-43-28 points.
— Raiders are 2-3 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
— Raiders are 6-5-1 ATS in last 12 games as home dogs, 2-2 TY.
— Raiders covered four of their last six games overall.
— Over is 9-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 11 TD’s on 32 drives.

— Raiders won two of last three series games; they beat Colts 31-24 in Indy LY.
— Colts won three of last four visits to Oakland.
— Philip Rivers against the Raiders

NJ Jets (0-12) @ Seattle (8-4)
— Winless Jets are 4-8 ATS, covering four of last six games.
— Jets lost in last minute LW, then fired their DC Monday.
— Jets have been outscored 80-44 in 2nd half of their last seven games.
— Jets are winless, but their turnover ratio is only minus-1.
— Jets are 9-20-2 ATS in last 31 games as road dogs, 1-4 TY.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

— Seattle is 3-4 in its last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks were outscored in 2nd half of last four games (48-31)
— Seahawks won field position in first five games, but only twice in last seven.
— Seattle is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Last four Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last five games.

— Seahawks won last three series games, by 10-21-10 points.
— Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle.
— Jets’ last win in Seattle was in 1997.

Atlanta (4-8) @ LA Chargers (3-9)
— Falcons are 4-3 in last seven games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta is 2-3 SU on road, scoring 25.8 ppg.
— Atlanta led five of its last seven games at halftime.
— Last three games, Falcons allowed only 17 ppg.
— Last four years, Atlanta is 2-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.

— Chargers lost their last five games, losing 45-0 last week.
— Bolts are 2-4 SU at home, beating Jets/Jaguars.
— Eight of last ten Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.
— Chargers gave up two TD’s on special teams last week.
— In their last nine games, Chargers gave up 27+ points every week.

— Falcons won eight of ten series games; they won last meeting 33-30 in OT in 2016.
— Atlanta won all six of its visits to San Diego.

Saints (10-2) @ Eagles (3-8-1)
— New Orleans won its last eight games, covering last four.
— Saints allowed one TD on opponents’ last 33 drives.
— Saints allowed 17.1 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
— New Orleans won four of five road games; they’re 2-0 outdoors, winning 26-23 in Chicago, 38-3 in Tampa.
— Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.
— Last four New Orleans games stayed under the total.

— Rookie QB Hurts gets his first NFL start here.
— Eagles lost last four games, scoring 17-17-17-16 points.
— Philly is 1-6-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles are 2-3 ATS in last five games as home underdogs.
— Last five games, Philly was outscored 58-17 in first half.
— Eight of last ten Philly games stayed under the total.

— New Orleans won five of last six series games.
— Saints won two of last three visits to Philly.

Washington (5-7) vs San Francisco (5-7) (Glendale, AZ)
— Washington won four of last six games, covered five of last seven.
— Washington outscored last five opponents 98-22 in second half.
— Washington is 2-5 outside the division, with four losses by 14+ points.
— Washington is 2-4 SU on road, losing by 15-14-1-3 points
— Washington is 18-12-1 ATS in last 31 games as a road underdog.
— Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Washington games.

— 49ers played “home” games in Arizona last/this week.
— 49ers lost four of their last five games SU.
— SF is 5-14 SU in last 19 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 34.6 ppg in their losses.
— SF has only 53 points in its last 14 red zone drives (3.79 pts/drive)
— 49ers are 5-5 ATS in last ten games as a favorite away from home.

— 49ers won five of last six series games.
— This game is on a neutral field in Arizona because of COVID
— Both teams have short weeks, after games on Monday.

Pittsburgh (11-1) @ Buffalo (9-3)
— Another short week for Steelers, who played Wednesday/Monday last two weeks
— Last two games, Steelers scored only three TD’s on 21 drives.
— Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog, 2-0 TY.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games
— Steelers are +11 in turnovers this season, +6 in last five games.
— Last four weeks, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 65-20 in first half of games

— Buffalo won five of its last six games, covered last four.
— Bills won five of six home games, with only loss to Kansas City.
— Buffalo outscored last four opponents 74-32 in first half.
— Bills scored 24+ points in eight of their nine wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo covered four of six home games this season.
— 10 of their 12 games went over the total.

— Steelers won six of last seven series games.
— Steelers won last four trips to Buffalo; last one was in 2016.

Monday's game
Baltimore (7-5) @ Browns (9-3)
— Yet another short week for the Ravens, who played Tuesday.
— Baltimore lost four of last six games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in six of seven wins, 26.8 ppg in losses.
— Ravens won four of six road games SU this year.
— Under is 4-2 in Baltimore road games this year.
— Ravens are 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games as home favorites, 2-2 TY.

— Cleveland won its last four games, scoring 30 ppg in last three.
— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 30.8 ppg in wins
— Cleveland won five of six home games, with only loss 16-6 to Las Vegas.
— Cleveland is 11-9-2 ATS in its last 22 home games, 3-2-1 TY.
— Over is 7-4 in their last eleven games.
— Last five games, Browns outscored foes 68-26 in first half.

— Ravens thrashed Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1, averaging 9.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Baltimore won seven of last eight series games.
— Ravens won their last five visits to Cleveland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 14
Matt Blunt

It was another “splitsville” week for backing the lowest scoring NFL team over their past three games (Denver) and fading the highest scoring one (Buffalo) as neither of them were ever really in all that much danger of losing those ATS wagers.

Half of last week's piece dealt with futures odds and I've gone further with that this week in it's own piece for those that are interested in another historical approach involving potential Super Bowl teams and what non-conference division they've matched up this year.

With the way the schedule has been so chaotic this year, Super Bowl contenders matched up with non-conference divisions was a common denominator that made sense to look into and there have been some interesting results since the NFL realigned back in 2002.

This piece will focus more on actionable trends for Week 14 games specifically, as last week's premature awarding of the Raiders win over the Jets was definitely tested this week but ultimately got there.

Following suit it suggests that backing the Las Vegas Raiders again this week makes a lot of sense, and as small home 'dogs vs. Indianapolis, the price is definitely in a very considerable range.

I teased a similar situation that was bitten by the bye weeks in Week 13, but Week 14 brings two teams into that spot, and that's where we will start.

Who's Hot

Fading a team who's last game was against the Kansas City Chiefs this year has produced a 7-2-1 ATS record this year, and 7-3 SU as well.

Similar to teams parlaying a win over the New York Jets with a win the following week, teams that have battled KC this year (all but one has lost to the Chiefs) tend to parlay that game with another ATS or SU defeat as well.

Even the Raiders, who benefited last week (and potentially this week) in playing the Jets, have gone 0-2 both SU and ATS following their two contests with KC, losing 45-20 to Tampa Bay following their shocking upset win over KC (and a bye week) earlier in the year, and followed up their second game with the Chiefs with a 43-6 loss to Atlanta the next time out.

The three sides to not lose an ATS ticket after facing the Chiefs were Baltimore (pushed on -14) when they topped Washington early on, Denver – when they beat the Chargers 31-30 on the final play of the game – and the New York Jets of all teams, when they choked away that MNF game late against the Patriots. That's it. Every other Chiefs opponent has gone out and been an ATS money burner the following week.

Who Could you Follow in Week 14?

Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers

So what does that mean for this week?

Well, even after a bye week – like the Raiders in Week 6 – it puts QB Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a fade spot this week as they host the Vikings. Early action has seen an early uptick in the Bucs going from -6 to -6.5 currently, as this Minnesota team that I've been high on since before the year, continues to push forward towards a potential playoff spot.

Minnesota's on a 0-3 ATS run themselves these past three weeks, but they've squeaked out two wins in those three games (inexplicably losing to Dallas in the other one) and have now won five of six SU overall. This will be the first time the Vikings are catching points in this poor 0-3 ATS run, and even with my slight Vikings bias for future reasons, I do believe taking the points with them makes plenty of sense this week.

The other team to fade in this post-KC role would be the Denver Broncos, who like Tampa have garnered some early support this week, likely in part to what their defense did in containing Patrick Mahomes and company on SNF. Denver's gone from an opener of +4 to +3.5 as they visit the other NFC South team off a bye week – Carolina – in a non-conference game between a pair of 4-8 SU squads.

Carolina's on a 7-3 ATS run over their last 10 games as it is, so backing them won't be hard for those that prefer to ride those things, and it too is another play that seems to make a lot of sense to me this week.


Who's Not

Backing teams after they scored 40+ points in their previous game is on a 3-9 ATS run in the last 12 opportunities, dating back to the start of Week 6.

Washington bucked this trend on MNF with their win (SU and ATS) over Pittsburgh, but that's still only the third win for these 40+ teams in weeks.

In fact, Week 13's action had five teams fit the bill after high scoring Week 12 performances – Houston, Washington, Tennessee, Atlanta, and Green Bay – and two of the three ATS wins here came from that week alone (Washington, Green Bay). Prior to that this scenario was on a 1-6 ATS run in backing these squads since the start of Week 6.

Overall this year the numbers are a little better in this situation as NFL teams scoring 40 or more are 8-11 ATS overall this year, with a 10-8-1 O/U record to boot.

So it is a scenario that wasn't always applicable early in the year, but after an off-season with minimal practice and no preseason games, the way most teams looked in the first month of this season is quite different than the way the majority of them look currently.

Who could you fade in Week 14?

New England Patriots
Cleveland Browns

Week 14 brings us two more teams to fit this bill, as the Patriots and Browns would be the organizations to fade, and both will bring their talents to prime time affairs this week.

New England goes on Thursday Night Football with their second straight game in Los Angeles – this time against the Rams – and already we've seen an opener of L.A. Rams -6.5 get bet against to its current standing of -5.

A 45-0 win for the Patriots will do that in this fickle market, especially when it's a quick turnaround with absolutely no travel to deal with.

The no-travel never happens for a road team on TNF so that's an interesting dynamic to consider this week, but as the last seven weeks have shown in this league, just because a team puts up 40 one week, it doesn't mean they are assured a SU or ATS win the following week.

The Browns are another interesting case as they host Baltimore on Monday Night Football, looking to finally get past a Ravens team that's done nothing but put a beat down on Cleveland in their first meeting.

Baltimore's 38-6 win over Cleveland back in early September was impressive all the way around, but the way things have looked recently for both organizations of late, it's almost like they've flipped roles.

But as has been the theme of this piece it seems, Cleveland's the fourth team in a great fade spot that has got nothing but early support this week, even with Baltimore being a sight unseen in Week 13 as of this writing. Cleveland opened up in the +2 range as a home 'dog and we are now seeing pick'em prices pop up as everyone only wants to remember what they've seen last and not put in the time or work to take in the bigger picture of the situation.

That's always been the nature of the beast known as the NFL betting market though, but I'll go out on a limb now and suggest that backing Minnesota, Carolina, L.A. Rams, and Baltimore in Week 14 will finish with a winning ATS record.

Having the majority looking the other way in all four contests makes playing on those teams that much more appealing to me.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Dec. 13

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE
Titans “over” 10-2 in 2020, now “over” 20-5 since Tannehill took over at QB mid 2019.
Jags “over” 14-10-1 last 24 since early 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

DALLAS at CINCINNATI
Into Ravens on Tuesday, Dallas 2-9 vs. line TY, now 1-6 vs. spread last seven away.
Also Cowboys 14-9 “over” since early 2019.
Cincy 4-0-1 vs. line at home TY!

Tech Edge: Bengals and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ARIZONA at N.Y. GIANTS
G-Men 7-1-1 vs. line last nine TY, also 8-3-1 “under” in 2020.
Cards no covers last five TY but did win and cover at MetLife vs. Jets on Oct. 1.

Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at CHICAGO
Romeo has won SU 3 of last 5 with Texans TY.
Though Houston just 1-4 vs. line away TY.
Bears 1-5 vs. spread last five TY, 9-23 last 31 since late 2018, and 24-11 “under” since mid 2018 (though “over” last two).

Tech Edge: Texans and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

DENVER at CAROLINA
Panthers 0-2 as chalk TY, no covers last four in role since 2019.
Carolina 2-4 vs. spread at Charlotte TY, 2-7-1 last ten vs. spread as host since mid 2019.
Into KC on Sunday night, Denver actually 7-3 vs. spread last ten away, and Broncos back to trending “under” (3-0 last 3, now 23-12 “under” since mid 2018.

Tech Edge: Broncos and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY
After covering 6 of 7, Vikes have dropped last three vs. line.
Still, they’ve covered 4 straight on road, and now 9-4 last 13 vs. line as visitor.
Vikes also “over” 8-3-1 TY and 17-5-1 “over” in reg season since early 2019.
Bucs “over” 19-9 since Arians arrived LY.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.

KANSAS CITY at MIAMI
Dolphins have covered 7 of last 8, 9 of last 11, 18 of last 24 on board, and 13-5 last 18 as dog.
Into Denver game on Sunday night, Andy Reid no covers last three TY, and only 3-3 vs. spread as visitor in 2020.

Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at LAS VEGAS
Indy has covered 4 of last 5 away TY, also “over” 3-1 last four and 7-5 in 2020, “over” 10-7 since late LY.
Raiders “over” 8-3-1 TY, “over” 3-1-1 at Allegiant Stadium.
Raiders 9-16-3 vs. line in second halves of season since 2017.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

N.Y. JETS at SEATTLE
Jets have covered 4 of last 6 TY though only 1-4 vs. spread away.
J-Men also 5-3 “under” last 8 TY.
Hawks 4-2 vs. line at newly-named Lumen Field TY (though a few close calls), also “under” last four TY.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and team trends.

GREEN BAY at DETROIT
Lions have actually covered last 3 vs. Pack at Ford Field, though Detroit just 2-4 vs. line last six TY, and lost 42-21 at Lambeau on Sept. 20.
Lions “over” 18-10 since LY, Pack on 9-5 “over” run since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Lions, based on “totals” and series trends.

ATLANTA at L.A. CHARGERS
Falcs 4-3 SU and vs. line since Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn in October.
Falcs also on 7-2 “under” run.
Bolts no covers last six TY, and 4-13-2 last 19 vs. line since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Falcons and slight to “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA
Birds “under” last six TY, Saints “under” last five in 2020.
Saints have also won and covered last five TY, part of 9-0 SU surge.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO (at Glendale, Az)
Not sure about home-road designations now for 49ers as they play home games in Glendale.
They were just 1-4 vs. spread at Levi’s.
Into Bills on Monday, SF 4-2 “under” last six TY.
In Pitt on Monday, WFT has won and covered last two in 2020, also “under” 4–1 last seven TY.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to WFT, based on “totals” and recent trends.

PITTSBURGH at BUFFALO
Steel 4-1 vs. line away TY, though into SF on Monday, Bills had covered last three in 2020.
Buff 7-3-1 as dog since last season.
Buff also “over” 7-3-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


Monday, Dec. 14

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
Even after win at Tenn, Brownies just 2-5 vs. line last seven TY.
Ravens have covered five of last six at Cleveland, Balt now 7-3 last ten vs. line in series, including wins last two by 24 ppg.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 14 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey has a chance to return from a shoulder injury that's shelved him since Week 9. But Carolina, laying 3.5 vs. Denver, had some COVID issues spring up Monday.

NFL Week 13 still has a Tuesday night game remaining, but NFL Week 14 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, including the possible return of a certain star Carolina Panthers running back. And of course, COVID news.

Week 14 Injuries

Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2 that kept him out until Week 9 at Kansas City, where he endured a shoulder injury that has kept him out since then. It's possible he returns Sunday at home against Denver. However, the Panthers on Monday put a handful of players on the reserve/COVID list, including wideouts D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. The Panthers opened -3.5 at The SuperBook, and that line is currently off the board, but if McCaffrey is cleared and the COVID issues clear up, expect to see an upward bump.

Las Vegas Raiders: Positive news is coming from Raiders camp, with standout right tackle Trent Brown activated Monday off the reserve/COVID list. Brown has been out since Week 5. The SuperBook opened Las Vegas as a 3-point home underdog to Indianapolis, and the line moved to Raiders +2.5 Monday. The total ticked up a half-point to 51. The status of running back Josh Jacobs (ankle) is still questionable after he sat out the Week 13 win at the New York Jets.

Week 14 Weather

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: The early forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of rain Sunday in Charlotte, along with winds of 10-15 mph. This game is currently off the board at The SuperBook, due to the aforementioned Carolina COVID issues.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: There's a 50/50 chance of showers Sunday at MetLife Stadium, along with winds of 10-15 mph, based on the early forecast. The total of 45 was stable Monday at The SuperBook.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: Rain in Seattle is never a surprise, and the early forecast points to a 63 percent chance of showers and winds of 10-15 mph Sunday. But this total actually nudged up a half-point Monday at The SuperBook, from 47 to 47.5.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: The early forecast predicts a 51 percent chance of rain and winds of 10-20 mph in Philly on Sunday. The SuperBook opened the total at 45 and moved to 45.5, then back to 45 on Monday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: The Sunday night game could be a little messy. The early forecast calls for a 53 percent chance of rain and potentially snow during the day, then a 30 percent chance of flurries in the evening, along with winds of 10-20 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 47.5 and held stable Monday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LEE

NFL | Dec 13, 2020
Broncos vs. Panthers
PICK - Carolina Panthers -3
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 162

I can't help myself here with the Panthers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Broncos. While this line may make sense given that both teams go into Week 14 with a 4-8 record, I think it's pretty clear that Carolina is the better team. On top of that the situation also favors the Panthers quite a bit in this matchup.

Drew Lock is not the answer for Denver at the quarterback position. He's got talent, but he doesn't have the brains to be a top tier NFL signal caller. He continues to make poor decisions with the football. Lock has thrown an interception in each of the last 7 games he has played, 4 times throwing 2 or more picks.

To say the Panthers have the edge at the most important position on the field would be an understatement. All Carolina quarterback Teddy Bridgewater does is cover the spread. He's a ridiculous 32-10 (76%) ATS as a starter in the NFL, which includes a 12-4 mark as a home favorite.

Another big edge for Carolina comes in the scheduling department, as the Panthers are playing this game off a much-needed bye, while the Broncos are playing their second straight on the road.

I also question Denver's motivation in this game coming off last week's huge game against division rival Kansas City. There's no denying that game against the Chiefs meant more than most and for them to be in it and lose the by just 6-points will only make it that much harder for them to bounce back.

Denver is just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they have played on the road vs an opponent that is playing on more than 6 days of rest. They have also covered just 5 times in their last 15 road games after playing a game against the Chiefs. Give me the Panthers -3!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc’s Sports

Take #166 Under in Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins (1p.m., Sunday, December 13 CBS)

For Miami to be competitive in this game they will have to shorten the game and keep the scoring in the low twenties. Despite their explosive offense the Chiefs have been an under team of late and especially with the trends. Kansas City has played under the posted total is 7 of their last 9 road games. Miami has gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 home games. We will not worry if the Chiefs can cover this big number and instead just collect with the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER

NFL | Dec 13, 2020
Vikings vs. Bucs
Bucs-6½ -110

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: In database history, during the last 4 weeks of regular season prior to playoffs, fading teams that just played a home game where each team scored at least 24 points is a profound SU: 183-132-0 (3.23, 58.1%) and ATS: 178-129-8 (2.52, 58.0%). That is profitable on both the moneyline and the spread alike.
-- Active this week to play on HOU, BUCCS, MIN, WASH, NYG, JAX, and SEA

Since 2004,teams playing their second straight road game or more are, on the blind, 509-411-20 (55.3% ATS). By simply playing a lot on the road (that's it, nothing else), it seems that teams, Automatically get Under-valued. -- Play on the Patriots this week

Three to ten point favorites averaging a solid 370+ ypg are just 176-232-13 ATS (43.1%) against bad defenses averaging 1 standard deviation over the median in ypg allowed. -- Fade the Rams this week

Since 1989, Teams on a 7 game or worse losing streak are 97-61-6 61.4% ATS next week.
Really solid system here active on the Jaguars.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RED DOG SPORTS

Soccer | Dec 13, 2020
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace
Tottenham Hotspur-128

Tottenham 2

Crystal Palace 1

This match takes place in the Premier League on Sunday. Tottenham has been playing well and I think they win 2-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE

NFL | Dec 13, 2020
Vikings vs. Bucs
Vikings+7 -110

Play - Minnesota Vikings (Game 163)

Edges - Vikings: 6-1 ATS as a dog versus NFC South opponents … Bucs: 0-4 ATS with rest when coming off a loss; and 4-9 SU and 4-7-1 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents the past two seasons … We recommend a 1* play on Minnesota. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TIM MICHAEL

NFL | Dec 13, 2020
Packers vs. Lions
OVER 55

I'm expecting a shootout here.

Detroit is better at home than it is on the road. There's something about friendly confines that works well for Matt Stafford, as note that the total has gone over the number in five straight for the Lions at Ford Field.

The Packers' offense revolves around Aaron Rodgers, which means that whenver these teams get together, we can expect a shootout. And that's definetly been the case, as these teams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten overall and in four of their last five games played in Detroit.

Green Bay has been good on the road as well, winning four of their last six away from friendly confines.

Rodgers is having another great season, as he's completed almost 70 percent of his passes for 3,395 yards, 36 touchdowns and only four interceptions.

And he's been particularly sharp of late, as he has three or more touchdown passes in six of his last seven games.

Aaron Jones leads a decent ground game which averages 124.2 yards per contest. The Green Bay offense has had to be pretty good most days as well, as its offense hasn't been fantastic, allowing 24.9 points per game.

No matter what Detroit's record is, there's always a couple of games that it always "GETS UP FOR" each year. It's annual Thanksgiving Day contest is one which players always have circled on their calendars. Same thing whenever it faces Green Bay.

The Lions have lost four of their last five. Matt Stafford has 3,278 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Stafford has at least three touchdown passes in three of his last six games, so as I outlined up top, I definitely expect some offensive fireworks between these two veteran gun-slinging quarterbacks.

The ground game isn't anything to write home about for the Lions, as Adrian Peterson leads a rushing attack which averages only 93.6 yards per game.

Detroit's weakness though once again isn't on the offensive side of the ball, but rather the defensive where it concedes 29.8 points per game.

What more do I need to point out? The Packers have gone over 30 points in five of their last seven. Detroit enters off a wild, high-scoring win over Chicago, so the Lions won't be rolling over either.

So when you add it all up here, in my opinion, this one is going to fly over the number sooner, rather than later.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs

Event: (153) Tennessee Titans at (154) Jacksonville Jaguars

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: December 13, 2020 1PM EST

Play: Tennessee Titans -7.5 (-105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Cris

Event: (151) Green Bay Packers at (152) Detroit Lions

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: December 13, 2020 1PM EST

Play: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-110)

Lions +7.5 The Lions are rejuvenated with the coaching change. Entirely different attitude. They will be getting players back this week, and certainly have opened up the options for Stafford to air it out again, instead of Patricia's clammed up game plan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (163) Minnesota Vikings at (164) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: December 13, 2020 1PM EST

Play: Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (-110)

FREE PLAY: Minnesota +6.5



You will see Tampa Bay in a lot of Teasers this week as people will say pick the winner if they tease Tampa down but to me that just looks way too easy. Yes Tampa has had two weeks to prepare but this team just hasn’t been the same since the Saints embarrassed on SNF A few weeks back. Minnesota has had two ugly wins in the last 2 weeks but ugly wins are better than good looking losses. Teams that win ugly often play great the next week because they know that they were lucky last week and come fully focused this week after the scare. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 and are in their best role and that’s being a underdog. Minnesota with their defense isn’t built to lay points but with a Offense that has Dalvin Cook they can stay in games and cover spreads. Note TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons. We also find that TAMPA BAY is 0-8 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is a live dog here with their #3 ranked offense at 6.5 YPP.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek

Event: (163) Minnesota Vikings at (164) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: December 13, 2020 1PM EST

Play: Minnesota Vikings +7.0 (-105)

163) Minnesota +7 (-120)…Buy ½ PT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200141) Brighton & Hove Albion at (200142) Leicester City

Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: December 13, 2020 2PM EST

Play: Leicester City +101

PLAY: LEICESTER CITY ML +101

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

Event: (173) New Orleans Saints at (174) Philadelphia Eagles

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: December 13, 2020 4PM EST

Play: Philadelphia Eagles +7.0 (-115)

-New Orleans will be playing their 3rd straight road game; outdoors in the elements here
-Philadelphia should be making a QB change to Jalen Hurts; could be the spark they need
-Eagles defense allows 5.3 yards per play at home vs. offenses that average 5.8 yards per play

Play EAGLES (+)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Event: (173) New Orleans Saints at (174) Philadelphia Eagles

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: December 13, 2020 4PM EST

Play: New Orleans Saints -7.0 (-105)

Take New Orleans (#173)

The betting markets have been mis-pricing the New Orleans Saints without Drew Brees for the last two years. It’s no accident that the Saints are 8-0 SU, 8-0 ATS in their eight games without Brees behind center in 2019 and 2020. They have an elite defense, capable of stepping up and winning games. They have a strong offensive line and a solid running game; not relying exclusively on QB play to move the football. And, like Teddy Bridgewater last year, Taysom Hill this year is a well above average backup quarterback. Philly showed plenty of quit in their loss to the Packers last week, and rookie QB Jalen Hurts may well end up being a downgrade from the struggling Carson Wentz – the ‘spark’ Hurtz provided last week was a 4th and 18 heave that resulted in a touchdown. Chalk worth laying! Take the Saints!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 5 Analysis December 13, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Pompano Park has an 11-race card scheduled to start the week. The popular 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6 and has a $15,000 guaranteed pool. The 0.50 Pick 5 sequence kicks-off the night and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

3-Maxdaddy Blue Chip (5/2)-Simply has not been good enough versus Open company. But this is the Open III class and really has no excuse not to be a major threat versus this crew.
7-Mac Anover (6-1)-Using instead of the program chalk #5 who was a sick scratch and hasn't raced since 11/22. Comes off an efficient win and now steps up. Has gate speed and should be a threat with a top effort and a solid steer.

Race 2

1-LA Rockin Sampson (6-1)-Drops in for a tag and so gets the rail. Could be a smart play as the 25% allowance drops off at year end and Plano can get the top from this spot. Only win here came on the engine and best to not overlook.
3-Rub Ofthe Green N (5/2)-Nfld shipper should fits well with the group and has won 5 of 14 starts at the Pomp. Smith needs to work a trip and a quick pace could help chances.

Race 3

1-Watchyastarinat (9-1)-This is the 4th start of the meet and the 1st time the post draw has been kind. Appears to have enough gate speed to get a close-up seat and may win for the 1st time in 13 starts at the Pomp.
3-Rockin Machine (6-1)-Last 2 starts have been dull but this looks like a spot to trip out. Plano should be able to get a cozy trip and could land in the pocket behind the chalk, #6.
6-War-N-Munn (9/5)-Hasn't been able to seal the deal and has come up short in all 4 South Florida starts. This is not a very strong group so it's best to include. Short field should help but won't offer much value and is only 2 for 21 at PPk.

Race 4

2-Regil Electron (5/2)-Made 1st start south of the border a winning and was bet down like the race was already over. Meets some new faces tonight but best to respect 3-year-olds chances for a repeat.
3-Theflyingrock (2/1)-Freshman gelding has hit the board in all 4 starts with 2 pictures. Should be tested by #2 but may prove to be a bit faster on this oval.

Race 5

3-Agedchedar Hanover (9-1)-Has been inconsistent since arriving in town but draws well here and looks like a play at this price. May need some breaks to win but should be in the hunt and could spice up exotics.
4-Unlikeanyother (2-1)-Hennessey's choice as he has been leaning towards the Beckwith barn. Ships in from Stga and makes Pompano debut. Looks like a fit versus this crew but will probably be bet hard.
6-Mc Mach (6-1)-This will be a test, but my guess is Plano leaves and will provide a good steer. The 2 program chalks #4 and #1 are making their 1st PPk start. This 6-year-old has won 9 of 36 starts here and will use looking for a nice price.

0.50 Pick 5

3,7/1,3/1,3,6/2,3/3,4,6
Total Bet=$36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/13/20 December 13, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Sunday, December 13, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Cool Hand Coop; 7-No Nay Maybe

Forecast: No Nay Maybe arrives from Monmouth Park after a runaway sloppy track score in August but the son of No Nay Never can handle turf as well and is properly spotted in this $20,000 grass dash that carries a non-winners of three restriction. A prior winner over the local lawn, the J. Delgado-trained gelding looks quick enough to lead this group gate-to-wire. Cool Hand Coop appears the most dangerous of the closing contingent and will be the one that ‘Maybe has to worry about the most in the final furlong. The Norther Afleet gelding has numbers that fit and picks up I. Ortiz, Jr., however, his record over the Gulfstream Park grass course (six starts with only two third place finishes) doesn’t really inspire confidence. We’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics and then we’ll press a bit keying No Nay Maybe on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Samurai Fighter; 7-I’m a Coco Pebbles

Forecast: I’m a Coco Pebbles has numbers that are gradually rising and with another forward move should be able to earn her diploma in this soft maiden $16,000 extended sprint for juvenile fillies. The addition of blinkers is a plus, and in a race lacking zip we’re anticipating that P. Lopez will have this filly on or near the lead from the get-go. Samurai Fighter has been chasing tougher, shows the route-to-sprint angle, and drops in class to where her speed figures say she’s a fit. The M. Casse-trained filly will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to I’m a Coco Pebbles.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Dropped Anchor; 4-Converter

Forecast: Dropped Anchor flashed speed before weakening and winding up third (beaten almost five lengths) when debuting in a maiden $50,000 dash over a sloppy track at GPW last month and today shows up for half that amount while hoping to find dry land. Based on the good quickness he displayed in her first race, the A. Sano-trained son of Anchor Down should be too quick for this field. Converter also is dropping and dangerous. The son of Currency Swap earned a number two races back that puts him right there, and with the major jockey switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. he’s worth including on your ticket at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Missing Link; 3-Can’t Buy Me Love

Forecast: Missing Link continued her improving pattern with an authoritative maiden $40,000 win over this course and distance in September and returns protected in this starter optional claimer. The daughter of Kantharos apparently has found her niche as a turf sprinter and with a recent healthy work pattern to have her on edge she could spring a surprise at 6-1 on the morning line. Can’t Buy Me Love was non-competitive in a pair of stakes races after graduating at first asking over the local lawn last summer. She’s eligible for this race after being entered for the $25,000 tag and certainly rates a big look on pure numbers at this level. In a deep and contentious affair, rolling exotic play may choose to spread; we’ll try to survive and advance using just the two listed above with preference on top to Missing Link.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-R Adios Jersey; 5-Dispense; 6-Fior Di Latte; 7-Elliereesaston

Forecast: Maiden $35,000 claiming juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in an anything-can-happen affair that necessitates a spread in rolling exotic play. Fior Di Latte showed a bit of ability when hitting the front but weakening late to wind up second in her debut against slightly lesser foes at GPW last month and the daughter of Exaggerator has every right to produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind her. She switches to L. Saez and may be better than her morning line of 8-1 gives her credit for. R Adios Jersey is a sneaky first-timer from the G. Baxter barn (33% with a strong ROI with debut runners). The work tab indicates ability, so in a soft affair this daughter of Adios Charlie is a “must use.” Elliereeseaston is another debut runner with credentials to run well. A bullet recent gate drill (:47.4bg, fastest of 83 for the distance) certainly catches the eye for good trainer S. Joseph, Jr., so you have to include her. Dispense closed a gap after a slow start to finish a willing second in here only outing in a maiden $25,000 grass sprint at Woodbine last month. She’s another with a right to improve in her second career start and her first on dirt.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:38 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Borkan; 7-Chess’s Dream

Forecast: Chess’s Dream seems the logical top pick in this state-bred two-turn maiden grass event for 2-year-olds based on two strong runner-up efforts over the local lawn prior to being well-beaten in an off-the-grass stakes on a sloppy track in late September. Freshened for M. Maker, training well, removing blinkers and returning to the maiden ranks, the son of Jess’s Dream has much in his favor. First-timer Borkan is a bit intriguing and may be worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up. The son of Speightstown doesn’t show anything flashy on his work tab but hails from the C. Clement barn, which boasts superior stats with debut runners (28%, powerful ROI). With T. Gaffalione taking the call, this colt seems likely to take some money on the tote.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:08 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Bahamian Beat; 8-Chill Haze; 9-Valiant Appeal

Forecast: Here’s a challenging affair for restricted (nw-2) $10,000 claimers that offers a couple of decent price chances. Valiant Angel is drawn comfortably outside, returns to dirt and one turn, and has sprint numbers that make him far more competitive than his morning line of 20-1 suggests. Low-percentage connections certainly should keep the price up. Chill Haze finally broke his maiden in his 13th career start but did so over a wet fast track, so his highly-rated score probably shouldn’t be taken at face value. However, the son of Justin Phillip projects as the controlling speed, and if he can shake loose again without pressure he’ll most likely outrun his morning line of 8-1. Bahamian Beat should be part of the pace and is another with back speed figures that make him a strong threat in a soft field. He does have a prior win over the local main track, though it was accomplished on a sloppy surface.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:38 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sun Glass; 8-Miss Deplorable; 9-Roman d’Oro

Forecast: Miss Deplorable has been away since February and there are only two workouts listed at a local training center in the mare’s past performance chart, but this low profile barn has good stats with comebackers and if this daughter of Big Drama returns as well as she left she should be able to out class this second-level allowance field of grass sprinting fillies and mares. At 6-1 she may be worth a small gamble in the win pool but she’s just one of three that we’ll be using in rolling exotic play. Sun Glass is a progressive daughter of Hard Spun seeking her third straight win, her most recent success accomplished sprinting on grass at Woodbine in late October. She’s a fit on speed figures with plenty of room for further improvement and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip. Roman d’Oro has the route-top-sprint angle and also is dropping out of stakes competition for this softer assignment. She’ll be a late threat and at 10-1 on the morning line is worth including on your ticket.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:09 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Frosted Grace; 6-With Verve

Forecast: Frosted Grace isn’t one to trust (2-for-20 with 13 seconds and thirds) and his lack of a true winning punch has been on display in his last three starts, all runner-up efforts. On the positive side are his recent speed figures, which are comparatively strong, and a prior win over the local main track. We’ll use him along with the morning line favorite (2-1). With Verve, arguably the most dangerous of the closing types. The Kantharos gelding was a solid third in the Sunshine Million Sprint Preview over a sloppy track at GPW last month and is a three-time winner over the local main oval, including the Hutcheson S. here last winter. With the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr., the L. Bates-trained sophomore is strictly the one to beat.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Max K. O,; 4-Sniper Kitten; 5-Morocco

Forecast: This messy turf event for $50,000 older claimers has several possibilities, so we suggest you spread as deeply as you can afford to. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Morocco does his best work from off the pace, so he’ll need fractions to run at and room to rally through the lane. If things break his way, the M. Maker-trained gelding, a two-time winner over the Gulfstream Park turf course, may be able to tag the speed under I. Ortiz, Jr. Max K. O. gets a much better draw today (from the far outside to the rail) and returns to the claiming ranks so it’s conceivable the E. Plesa, Jr.-trained colt will return to top form. Always dangerous as the controlling speed, he’ll no doubt try to secure that type of trip today, though there are other speed types in the field that will make him work for it. Sniper Kitten looked pretty good winning at Indiana Downs last month when facing softer foes and may have another forward move in him. He’s got back numbers that make him dangerous and a stalking style that should ensure a comfortable trip.
*
*
Race 11: Post Time: 5:11 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Reinagol; 2-Viva La Red; 3-Phantom Vision

Forecast: Let’s go with the inside three runners in today’s nightcap, a five furlong turf dash for 2-year-old fillies. Phantom Vision, a reasonable second in her debut last month for M. Maker and is likely to produce a forward move with that effort behind her. Though beaten more than three lengths, the daughter of Declaration of War was five lengths clear of the rest and a recent 47 flat breezing workout (second fastest of 92) tells us she’s headed in the right direction. Viva La Red makes her debut for a barn that has solid stats with first time starters and shows a string of bullet drills at Palm Beach Downs that jumps off the page. The daughter of Texas Red is listed at 5-1 on the morning line for trainer P. Biancone and is a “must use” at that price. Reinagol overcame a sluggish start from the rail to finish with interest when an okay second in a moderate affair in her debut on grass at GPW in early November. The daughter of Shanghai Bobby can improve if she leaves cleanly.
*
*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream December 13, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Gulfstream Park’s Late Pick 4 Sunday features three races full of accomplished runners and a finale that includes some very promising young ones.

The sequence runs from races 8-11 and the suggested this week totals $54. Without a standout in these, the ticket uses a 3x3x3x4 strategy.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the Late Pick 4 Sunday from Hallandale Beach, Fla.:

Race 8 (3:38 p.m. ET, optional claiming)

SWEET YARE N DIRA broke poorly and made up considerable ground to finish fifth last time. Has won at this level and can be troublesome from the start.

LENZI’S LUCKY LADY was off to a three-for-three start in her career – all at GP – and hasn’t found her way to the winner’s circle since then. Was claimed by Hess, Jr., barn two races back for $75,000 and then faltered in the Charles Town Oaks. Dangerous in her return to GP and has the pedigree to handle the switch to turf.

AUNT NADINE has been able to adjust to the pace in her last few and has two wins and two seconds in her last four. Makes third start off the claim for Maker.

Race 9 (4:09 p.m. ET, optional claiming)

FROSTED GRACE ran on well in his last three and was second in each of them. Solid contender at this level.

CAJUN BROTHER had the misfortune of facing Nashville in the Perryville Stakes at Keeneland and faltered. He gets some major class relief here and you can expect him to dig in vs. this level of competition.

WITH VERVE has been in the mix in several good races, including in the Hutcheson Stakes, when he came from off the pace and was up in time by a neck. Certainly can be a solid performance at this level.

Race 10 (4:40 p.m. ET, claiming)

SNIPER KITTEN comes off one of his better races as he followed a long pacesetter and readily drew clear. Well travelled and capable.

MOROCCO steadily made his way through most of the field before finishing third in his latest. Has won a couple of races over this course.

STIRLING DRIVE woke up with a solid third at this level last out and will be fairly close to this pace. A repeat of his last one would give him a solid chance.

Race 11 (5:11 p.m. ET, claiming)

REINAGOL improved position and finished second in her debut. She drew the rail in that one and gets the same post today. Likely will break better in her return.
VIVA LA RED has trained very well for her first one and is bred for grass.
PHANTOM VISION, like REINAGOL, drew the rail and finished second her debut. Has worked well for her return.
THIRD TIME AROUND lost her rider last time after finishing fourth in herdebut. Had a nice workout since herlatest.

50-cent Late Pick 4 Sunday at Gulfstream Park:
8) #1 Sweet Yare N Dira, #5 Lenzi’s Lucky Lady, #7 Aunt Nadine.
9) #1 Frosted Grace, #4 Cajun Brother, #6 With Verve.
10) #4 Sniper Kitten, #5 Morocco, #6 Stirling Drive.
11) #1 Reinagol, #2 Viva La Red, #3 Phantom Vision, #9 Third Time Around.
50-cent Pick Four: 1-5-7 with 1-4-6 with 4-5-6 with 1-2-3-9 ($54).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#7 Off the Record
Takes a big drop off a couple of fading efforts, and this easier spot coupled with racing as a first-time gelding might be enough to get him home.


#8 Twinstinct
Toyed with giving this guy top call here at a big price. That was a useful comeback run with cheaper, and he has plenty of room to come forward off that first run in over a year. Consider.


#1 Fugitive
Paid dividends immediately off the claim when rolling a special weight group at Charles Town, but these types of CT to Laurel maiden winners are just 1-for-14 in the last few years, and this guy might be overbet. Capable, but worth playing against.


Race Summary
Off the Record gets into a much easier spot after trying allowance company for quite some time, and his early speed can be much more dangerous with this cheaper crew. Twinstinct is the intriguing price player.


Laurel Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 Fast Master
He is a decent fit at this level, and while his form isn't all that sharp, he does occasionally show up with the kind of effort that would be competitive here. He'll get the right kind of trip to see if he can produce it today.


#3 Rough Sea
Dropper hasn't had a ton of luck lately against better crews, but he is capable of efforts that could score with these, and he'll probably get a bit overlooked.


#6 Air Token
Chalk is clearly the one to beat after springing an upset in open stakes company last time out. Hard to argue with the current form, but just wondering how long he can sustain it.


Race Summary
Fast Master isn't all that reliable, but his best game is good enough here, and he's sure to offer a solid price off some even types of efforts.


Laurel Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#7 Lamplighter Jack
Willing to give this guy a pass for the last one when fading in the slop, and the blinkers come off today for this first local try. Thinking his best stuff stacks up here.


#3 Royal Number
Just missed going two turns with similar last time out, and and while the price gets shorter this time around, he's clearly in the mix with anything similar on the cutback.


#6 Hello Hot Rod
Easy score with softer last time out, and although there are a couple others in here capable of handling this guy, this Russell barn is doing unbelievable work right now, so he's tough to toss.


Race Summary
Lamplighter Jack will need a bounce-back effort after a no-show in the slop, but his fast main track races seem competitive with these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#9 Bahamian Prince
Hasn't been on turf since May, which is unusual since his best races have been on the grass. Returns to the course on which he ran well in 2019 and early this year, with a 2-2-2 record in six starts. Chance at a price.


#7 No Nay Maybe
Ran to a long lead two back at Monmouth and just got caught late; followed with an easy win in the slop and is back to grass. One to catch.


#3 Cool Hand Coop
Came on well for third last out and is usually fairly close to the lead; fits well here.


Race Summary
Bahamian Prince has run very well on the Gulfstream grass and has enough speed to stay in range; set up for a late move.


Gulfstream Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#2 Missing Link
Had a monster five-furlong turf win the last time she ran, and it occurred over this course. After three dirt tries, she was solid in her two since switching to grass.


#3 Can't Buy Love
Readily backed up in two stakes races and will appreciate the step down to the optional claiming level; likely to be on the front end.


#8 Foolish Heart
Has won two of three races and had the lead in each; moves over to the turf course and can be a factor from the outside.


Race Summary
Missing Link moves out of the maiden claiming ranks and probably doesn't have to have an early lead; Fawkes has her well placed.


Gulfstream Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#9 Valiant Appeal
Has been in against much tougher lately and is back to the dirt after a poor run on turf; is up against many that have been at this for a long time and his recent sprints should good enough to make him a big player.


#8 Chill Haze
Got a clear lead and held on for a sharp maiden score last out; has been improving and can be a force on the front end.


#7 Diamonds Enjoy
Didn't fire in the slop last time out but had been fairly close in three leading up to that; has been in tough races and should be a strong contender.


Race Summary
Valiant Appeal drops to his lowest level, returns to the dirt and lands in a good spot for him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)



Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 6

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 6-7-8) / $1 Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)



Claiming $16,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 2:58P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, AND STARTER RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED)(ANY RACE AT FIVE FURLONGS OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LUCK'S ROYAL FLUSH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TORPEDO AWAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ELECTORAL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MINOSO: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. UNCAPTURED HERO: Horse r anks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



4

LUCK'S ROYAL FLUSH

9/2


6/1




7

TORPEDO AWAY

8/1


7/1




6

ELECTORAL

5/1


7/1




8

MINOSO

3/1


8/1




2

UNCAPTURED HERO

5/2


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

UNCAPTURED HERO

2


5/2

Front-runner

84


86


95.0


79.4


70.4




4

LUCK'S ROYAL FLUSH

4


9/2

Front-runner

92


90


91.8


81.2


76.2




1

SHOOTIN MONEY

1


20/1

Front-runner

85


84


84.8


66.0


55.5




5

CHICO BABY

5


15/1

Stalker

85


86


60.7


65.4


49.9




8

MINOSO

8


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

93


79


59.6


82.0


75.5




7

TORPEDO AWAY

7


8/1

Trailer

95


86


56.2


90.6


84.6




6

ELECTORAL

6


5/1

Trailer

94


85


55.6


89.2


82.7




3

CONTINENTAL UNION

3


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

87


83


47.6


76.8


62.8




9

NEXT FLIGHT

9


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

82


80


40.4


62.8


47.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park



Gulfstream Park - Race 6

$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 6-11)



Maiden Special • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 2:38P


(RAIL AT 120 FEET). FOR STATE BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT SEVEN FURLONGS)





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. TORETTO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TORETTO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



3

TORETTO

12/1


5/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

LOYAL LOUIE

4


10/1

Front-runner

0


0


72.0


63.5


56.0




7

CHESS'S DREAM

7


2/1

Front-runner

79


72


0.0


0.0


0.0




3

TORETTO

3


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

69


53


106.2


71.1


65.1




8

CHIPSHAPE

8


30/1

Alternator/Stalker

60


46


26.6


28.1


16.1




10

QUINTO SOL

10


30/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


22.8


18.0


4.5




6

TRIPLE JEOPARDY

6


6/1

Trailer

81


60


27.4


54.8


48.8




9

MAGICAL ADVENTURE

9


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0























Unknown Running Style: SOSOSUBTLE (5/1) [Jockey: Lopez Paco - Trainer: De La Cerda Armando], FRENCH AFFAIR (8/1) [Jockey: Zayas Edgard J - Trainer: Delgado Gustavo], BORKAN (3/1) [Jockey: Gaffalione Tyler - Trainer: Clement Christophe].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6900 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 DADDY'S ON STRIKE 2/1




# 6 SLICK AS A PIN 5/2




# 3 FINAL PROOF 10/1




I give the nod to DADDY'S ON STRIKE here. Green is trying to win with this horse by bringing him back so quickly. A solid 88 avg class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. Reliable average speed figs in dirt route races make this pony a solid contender. SLICK AS A PIN - Garnered a decent speed figure last time out. Austin has this gelding racing well and is a very good selection based on the strong Equibase speed figs earned in route races recently. FINAL PROOF - This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 2 for 13 in his races recently. Has been running strongly lately and ought to be on or close to the lead early on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Aqueduct - Race #1 - Post: 12:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 LUCKY LINDSEY (ML=6/1)


LUCKY LINDSEY - Ran against the males in her last race on November 13th. Don't throw this horse out due to her last affair at Aqueduct where she ended up seventh in the slop. I look for an improvement today. I believe the addition of blinkers today will help this filly focus her attention on racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CRICK (ML=6/5), #4 WINGS OF FIRE (ML=5/2), #3 EMPRESS LUCIANA (ML=8/1),

CRICK - You always believe this animal has a shot to win, but she fails most every time. This questionable contender ran a somewhat easily forgotten rating last time out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that rating. WINGS OF FIRE - Not a perfect 'spot' in this race. EMPRESS LUCIANA - 8/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when looking at the most recent showings. Not easy to support any less than sharp equine in a sprint event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#8 LUCKY LINDSEY is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds



12/13/20, FG, Race 6, 3.25 CT
12/13/20,FG,6,1M [Turf About] 1:34:01 CLAIMING. Purse $21,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OVER A MILE ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 13, 2020. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since November 13 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000, if for $15,000, allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $15,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and 70 Yards.) (Rail at 20 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
1
According to Aspen
9/2
Arrieta F
Tracy Tanner
JFC
198
34.34
1.43/$1


098.4610
5
Herbs Love
4/1
Gilligan J
Keen Dallas E.


139
30.22
1.48/$1


097.4417
7
Chikara
7/2
Murrill M
Calhoun W. Bret


140
32.86
1.55/$1


095.1520
9
North of Eden
5/1
Suarez A
Silva Miguel Angel
W
140
32.86
1.55/$1


094.8858
10
Limage
12/1
Kellenberger K
Mordenti Kathleen M.
S
140
32.86
1.55/$1


093.6013
8
Barbess
6/1
Carroll D
Pish Danny


139
30.22
1.48/$1


093.1272
3
Glamorized
6/1
Pedroza M
Robertson Hugh H.
T
140
32.86
1.55/$1


091.9519
4
Cubs Win
8/1
Beschizza A
Brinkman Brett A.
E
140
32.86
1.55/$1


091.0692
6
Romani
15/1
Saez G
Habeeb Donald J.
L
139
30.22
1.48/$1


090.1691
2
Marrazano
15/1
Hernandez C J
Hodges Jodie


140
32.86
1.55/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 33.33, ROI 1.59/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 According to Aspen
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]*2ndHorse98RatingAndTopHorse100Rating
*Scratches may change this condition If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
5
Herbs Love
4/1
Gilligan J
Keen Dallas E.
E
28
39.29
1.31/$1


099.9643
7
Chikara
7/2
Murrill M
Calhoun W. Bret


28
39.29
1.31/$1


098.7224
1
According to Aspen
9/2
Arrieta F
Tracy Tanner
JFC
28
39.29
1.31/$1


097.5658
3
Glamorized
6/1
Pedroza M
Robertson Hugh H.
T
28
39.29
1.31/$1


096.7328
8
Barbess
6/1
Carroll D
Pish Danny


28
39.29
1.31/$1


096.5315
9
North of Eden
5/1
Suarez A
Silva Miguel Angel


28
39.29
1.31/$1


095.5841
4
Cubs Win
8/1
Beschizza A
Brinkman Brett A.


28
39.29
1.31/$1


095.4322
10
Limage
12/1
Kellenberger K
Mordenti Kathleen M.
SW
8
37.50
2.16/$1


095.4155
2
Marrazano
15/1
Hernandez C J
Hodges Jodie


28
39.29
1.31/$1


095.3550
6
Romani
15/1
Saez G
Habeeb Donald J.
L
28
39.29
1.31/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.00, ROI 0.99/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Herbs Love
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]ActualPostNotGreaterThan9AndDistanceis1m

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 ANTRIM'S GIANT 8/1




# 12 SPLASH FOR GOLD 4/1




# 1 LEMON BLITZ 6/1




ANTRIM'S GIANT looks formidable to best this field and could score at a price in here. Has formidable Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. Looks strong for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt route races recently. SPLASH FOR GOLD - Is a key contender - given the 81 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. He has a competitive distance/surface win record - 1 for 3. LEMON BLITZ - He has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the most competitive in this group. Garnered a solid speed rating last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 12:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 FUGITIVE (ML=2/1)
#6 KABOB (ML=10/1)
#2 TOM TERRIFIC (ML=12/1)


FUGITIVE - A winning percentage like 32 is terrific for any jockey/handler duet. This front-runner should be aided by this race's shorter distance. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a nice race is a good omen. KABOB - This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. TOM TERRIFIC - This gelding is in nice condition, having run a good race on November 20th, finishing third. The rider/conditioner pair of Whitacre and Serey has a strong return on investment together. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the vacation and should be fit.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 OFF THE RECORD (ML=5/2), #5 CHAMPIONSHIP ALLEY (ML=5/1), #3 WHATS THE CHANCES (ML=6/1),

OFF THE RECORD - Awfully hard to play this horse when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness of late. CHAMPIONSHIP ALLEY - The rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued equine. WHATS THE CHANCES - This gelding raced very, very well on Nov 21st finishing first, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign. Only knocked off maiden claimers last out. It's going to be very tough for this animal to repeat versus winners.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - FUGITIVE - This colt is stepping up with each race. He has shown a notable points increase in his speed ratings over his last two races.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #1 FUGITIVE on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [2,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,2,6] with [1,2,6] with [1,2,5,6,8] with [1,2,5,6,8] Total Cost: $36



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

[1,2,6] with [1,2,6] with [1,2,5,6] with [1,2,3,5,6,8] with [1,2,3,5,6,8] Total Cost: $72