Wednesday 12/16/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/16/20 December 16, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Wednesday, December 16, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes.
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Facts Only; 6-Nicole Princess

Forecast: We’ll use the best of the experienced runners and the most intriguing of the newcomers in this modest maiden $12,500 abbreviated sprint for juvenile fillies. Facts Only drops to the bottom, has a clear edge in the speed figure department, and shows the route-to-sprint and turf-to-dirt angles that catch the eye. The low percentage barn doesn’t inspire confidence but P. Lopez stays aboard, so we’ll make her the top pick by default. Nicole Princess shows some decent workout times in her past performance chart so perhaps this daughter of Sky Kingdom can run a little (and a little is all that it will take). She looks like a live item for the always-potent A. Sano/L. Saez team.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:04 ET Grade: C
Use: 5-Hangar One; 6-Savatiano; 7-Kicks On Sixty Six

Forecast: Hangar One shows improving figures, returns to the main track, and projects to enjoy a trouble-free, pace-prompting trip in this $20,000 miler for juveniles. Kicks on Sixty Six tries two-turns for the first time, has figures that fit, and owns a pedigree to move up a bit over a distance of ground. Savitiano had a rough trip sprinting over a sloppy track at GPW in mid-October and ran below his best form. Freshened and dangerous, he broke his maiden over this main track and should be running on late.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pool Shark; 2-Seven Channels; 3-Trade Deadline

Forecast: Older maiden claimers meet over a mile in the third race, with class dropper Trade Deadline the one to beat at 2-1 on the morning line. The C. Brown-trained gelding adds blinkers for the first time, drops into a seller, and makes his second start off a layoff. Today should be his day. Pool Shark ran well in a slightly lesser affair at Belmont Park when setting the fractions and hanging on for second in his first grass outing in October. Not much more will be needed today, and from the rail under P. Lopez, the son of Tiznow could find himself on or near the lead throughout. Seven Channels is a seven-race maiden and not really getting any better but he switches to L. Saez and projects to enjoy a comfortable ground-saving, stalking trip. At 6-1 on the morning line he may be worth tossing in as a saver or a back-up.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:03 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Little Demon; 3-Divert; 4-American First

Forecast: Divert was more than six lengths clear of the rest when a sharp runner-up in a maiden $32,000 sprint at GPW last month, and although he’s moving into the maiden $50,000 ranks today the son of Candy Ride certainly going to leave shorter than his inflated morning line of 12-1. He’s a major player. Little Demon surfaces in a claimer for the first time and should appreciate the softer assignment, though on speed figures he’s still a little shy of what will be needed to win. American First is a debut runner from the K. Breen barn (solid stats with this angle), lands P. Lopez, and has workout times that indicate at least some ability.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 2:36 ET Grade: X
Single: 2-R Mercedes Boy

Forecast: R Mercedes Boy seems pretty solid and certainly will be a short price in this first-level allowance sprint for state-bred older horses. The Overdriven gelding, in the frame in nine of 11 starts over the local main track, switches to P. Lopez, exits a productive race, and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip. The issue, of course, is his recent money burning habits – he’s failed to deliver the goods as the choice in each of his last three starts, and at 7/5 on the morning line won’t be offering much in the way of value. You can use him as a rolling exotic single or perhaps better yet simply sit out the race.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 2:38 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Matcha; 10-She’s Just Quality

Forecast: There really isn’t much difference between a maiden $12,500 and a maiden $20,000 for older fillies and mares, so even though Matcha is moving up in price she really doesn’t have a whole lot to worry about in this seven and one-half furlong grass affair. A 10-race maiden with five placings and speed figures that fit well in this league, the daughter of Macho Uno is guaranteed a ground-saving trip, should benefit from the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr., and has hit the board in her last four starts. She’s Just Quality returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since being haltered for $20,000 out of her debut last April, so the class drop certainly figures to help, though the low percentage (4%) barn hardly inspires confidence. She’s definitely competitive on numbers.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 3:37 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Go Mike; 3-Our Hoisted Mast; 7-Long Beach Kid

Forecast: Go Mike ran well over this course when second in a $25,000 claimer last month and today is protected in starter’s allowance company while adding blinkers for the first time and switching to L. Saez. The son of Palace Malice projects to be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance to seal the deal when it counts. Delaware shipper Our Hoisted Mast ran well in his only previous turf try and returns in his first start since September as a first-time gelding. Long Beach Kid was a clever debut winner over seven furlongs in an off-the-turf a sloppy track elongated sprint at GPW while on the lead and we suspect he’ll employ similar front-running tactics while stretching out to two-turns. If he improves on the grass – his pedigree doesn’t guarantee it – he may be able to act with these.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:08 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bold Article; Yellowstone Girl; 7-Sunny Isle Beach

Forecast: Contention runs deep in this starter optional claimer for juvenile fillies, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Yellowstone Girl has improving speed figures for a top outfit and arrives from Churchill Downs with form that should be good enough to win this starter optional claimer. She picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Sunny Isle Beach, a $40,000 claim at Keeneland by red-hot D. Gargan (47% with as massive ROI with this angle), has won two of her three starts with seemingly the best yet to come. Two recent bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs indicate she’s doing quite well for her new connections, and while this will be her first route try her pedigree suggests this trip should be within her range. Bold Article was a geared down winner in a restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claimer routing on dirt at Churchill Downs last month, though an easy front-running trip certainly contributed to the eight-length score. Let’s see if she can duplicate that performance today when facing more pace pressure.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 4:39 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Olympic Runner; 4-Social Paranoia

Forecast: Social Paranoia, winner of the Poker S.-G3 with a career top triple-digit Beyer speed figure when last seen at Belmont Park on July 4, returns for T. Pletcher in this conditioned allowance event against a field he should outclass. Successful in two of three career starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course, the son of Street Boss shows back-to-back recent bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs to indicate he’s fit and ready, and he’s already proven on two occasions that he can fire big off a layoff. He’s certainly is playable at his 2-1 morning line price. Olympic Runner might be worth tossing in on your rolling exotic ticket, but only as a saver. The Woodbine shipper should enjoy a cozy ground-saving trip from his advantageous rail post and is fairly fast on speed figures; however, he’s winless in seven career starts on grass.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Flutiste; 2-Driving Wind; 7-Wecallherqueenmary

Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for maiden juvenile fillies over a distance of ground. We’ll go three-deep but you should use as many as you can afford to. Wecallherqueenmary is a first-timer by Exaggerator with a pretty good grass drill around dogs while appearing best in company at Palm Meadows a couple of weeks ago that indicates she has some ability. Her previous main track drills weren’t bad either, so at 12-1 on the morning line let’s try her on top. Flutiste shows up for a tag after three tries in straight maiden company that weren’t bad. She has numbers that are slightly better than par, so the daughter of Mizzen Mast is the likely choice and one to beat. Driving Wind, in the frame in both of her outings at GPW, has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and seems certain to be the controlling speed if she wants to be. Her pedigree suggests she’ll handle two-turns just fine.
*
*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#7 Symphony Hall
Her form has always been all over the place, but she isn't too far removed from races that would be very competitive with these. She might wake up on the barn change.


#3 Tough N Buff
Likely chalk is going to be tough to beat with something similar to that last try, but she doesn't always back up decent efforts, and the price is probably going to get a bit short.


#6 Doubt
She has struggled facing winners in recent tries, but her best stuff keeps her in the mix with these, and catching a fast track might boost her chances.


Race Summary
Symphony Hall comes off a dud, but she's capable of something much better than that, and the change of scenery might be enough to help her bounce back to one of her better efforts.


Mountaineer - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#8 Dr. Gelp
He showed only brief pace in a couple of local starts with better, but he was a much better fit when facing maiden claiming company in Louisiana, so this drop might wake him up in a hurry with blinkers going on.


#4 Johnny Casino
He has had 13 starts, so it's tough to find a bunch of excuses for him, but he seems like one of the more reliable types in here. Still, he was 24/1 last out and will be much, much shorter this time around.


#1 O Driscoll
He owns a few pretty nice sprint efforts earlier in his career, so the cutback might help him wake up off a couple of dull two-turn tries.


Race Summary
Dr. Gelp adds blinkers today in hopes of reversing some flat recent form, and he should be able to use his wide draw as an attack post in the early going.


Mountaineer - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Tom
Has enough route influences on the bottom side of the pedigree, and he should be able to land a really nice trip near the top while stretching out.


#2 Golden Star Rock
He was an easy winner when facing the locals for the first time, and this bunch doesn't feel too deep for him to have a realistic chance right back with winners.


#4 Rakeez
Leaves Chad Brown's barn and will try the dirt for the first time here. He's bred a bit more for turf, but this is obviously a much softer spot than he would have found in New York.


Race Summary
Tom is intriguing at something like the 6/1 ML offering. He'll stretch around two turns with some tactical pace, and a couple of the other logical players may be a bit overbet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Dover Downs - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#6 WESTERN LYNX
Willing chase of odds-on winner, tries to upstage in-the-money finishes.


#8 DISTURBED HANOVER
Second against better twice recently, moves inside out.


#5 ROLLATOWN
Steps up off popular win, unproven at this level of late.


Race Summary
Western Lynx chased Rollatown through fast fractions and held on for his fourth in-the-money finish in his last five starts. He's worth a play at 12-1 on the morning line to try and turn the tables. Play a 5-6-8 exacta box.


Pompano Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#7 BAZAAR BAZAAR
Burned money in needed comeback try, expect better tonight.


#9 PETER'S EXPRESS
Slowed by pace in latest, gets class relief, tough starting spot.


#4 PUERTO RICO
Trotted evenly against 'Bazaar,' led to stretch in race prior.


Race Summary
Bazaar Bazaar was unhurried in third while chasing the second and third favorites. He inched closer in the stretch and finished willingly, but failed as the 3-to-5 favorite off a layoff. He can make amends with an anticipated move forward off that effort. Play 7-4 and 7-9 exactas.


Rosecroft - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#4 HILLBILLY HEARTACHE
Chased odds-on fave and tired, could be the target in here.


#2 BARELY A VIRGIN
Steady check-getter figures up close for hot driver in bid for first win of year.


#6 SANSA
Rallied for third for track's second-leading trainer.


Race Summary
Hillbilly Heartache chased the 3-to-5 favorite and faded in a race dominated by deep closers. She can make maximum use of her speed from a better starting spot. Play 4-2 and 4-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#7 Long Beach Kid
Was a winner on debut in a race that came off the turf, giving the idea that his connections thought there would be no problem with grass. He gets his chance today and has a couple of maintenance works since Oct. 31, when he won.


#4 Go Mike
Was second at a similar level last time out and can carve out a good trip. If the pace isn't fast, Saez will happily put him on the front end.


#3 Our Hoisted Mast
Was a closing third going short in his only turf attempt, which came at Colonial; was outrun in a restricted stakes race at Delaware in his latest. Likely to be close to the lead in his first try around two turns.


Race Summary
Long Beach Kid dug in in the slop in his first one, should be able to move over to the grass in good order and can put up a fight late.


Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#1 Bold Article
Crushed N2L claimers at Churchill last out, likes to be on the front end and should be able to put up a strong fight going a one-turn mile.


#3 To a T
Stablemate of top choice comes off a maiden win; he won on the drop and in his first on the dirt. Gets a mile for the first time.


#4 Yellowstone Girl
Gets Lopez aboard as she tries to win for the second time going a mile; capable.


Race Summary
Bold Article can be in a good spot throughout and his last was by far her best; can dig in vs. these.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 Epic Dreamer
Taking a chance with a 20-1 that has no turf experience but has plenty of class; pedigrees suggests he should be able to handle the turf and his speed could make him a huge factor on the front end.


#1 Olympic Runner
Ran in graded stakes in Canada and is working on his first win of the year; closed with a rush in his last three and fits with these.


#4 Social Paranoia
Was up in time for a win in the G3 Poker at Belmont and has won two of three at GP, including the G3 Appleton. Comes off a 5.5-month break and should be a player.


Race Summary
Epic Dreamer has been against some outstanding performances and gets his opportunity to run on turf; grandson of Dixieland Band has it in his blood and comes in off a third.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA



ZIA - Race 8

Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta/ 3rd Leg Pick Three 1st Leg .50 Cent Pick Four / 2nd Leg Pick 5



Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 2:39P


FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 16, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GOLLY GEE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SOLID GOLD BAR : Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. E BAR GOLD: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. DAPIRATE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SOUTHWESTE RN HOPE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days.



11

GOLLY GEE

4/1


9/2




6

SOLID GOLD BAR

8/1


7/1




12

E BAR GOLD

20/1


7/1




8

DAPIRATE

12/1


9/1




1

SOUTHWESTERN HOPE

5/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

SOUTHWESTERN HOPE

1


5/1

Front-runner

68


64


69.3


59.8


47.8




6

SOLID GOLD BAR

6


8/1

Front-runner

77


68


41.8


60.2


51.7




12

E BAR GOLD

12


20/1

Alternator/Front-runner

76


69


64.0


59.8


44.8




3

ALMOST A STORM

3


6/1

Stalker

73


55


45.3


59.4


47.4




4

SOME ASSEMBLY REQD

4


20/1

Stalker

71


68


45.0


57.6


41.6




11

GOLLY GEE

11


4/1

Trailer

77


73


55.8


71.8


69.3




5

MEGA SOURCE

5


8/1

Trailer

77


62


35.5


67.4


60.9




8

DAPIRATE

8


12/1

Trailer

78


64


30.4


59.2


52.7




2

NATIVE EVENT

2


9/2

Trailer

73


68


26.6


59.2


43.2




9

DANDY DON WHO

9


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

73


64


46.0


56.2


41.7




7

DIABOLICAL TIME

7


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


71


33.3


57.2


40.7




10

GABBY WHO

10


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

76


73


0.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero



Camarero - Race 6

Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7



Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 1, 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 26 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. NIXASGIRL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NIXASGIRL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DAMARIS C.: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. UNAGI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



2

NIXASGIRL

2/1


5/2




4

DAMARIS C.

3/1


5/1




5

UNAGI

5/2


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

UNAGI

5


5/2

Front-runner

71


68


73.8


51.4


47.4




7

LADY OF SHADY LANE

7


9/2

Front-runner

56


47


59.6


37.6


24.6




4

DAMARIS C.

4


3/1

Stalker

68


64


39.6


56.8


51.3




2

NIXASGIRL

2


2/1

Alternator/Stalker

73


67


78.0


60.6


57.1




8

CUNNINGHAM CREEK

8


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

68


60


23.8


50.4


41.4




6

VALID DESERT

6


7/2

Alternator/Non-contender

57


48


38.8


45.6


35.1




1

D'WILDCAT RETURN

1


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

65


44


34.6


36.2


26.2




3

FASHIONABLY EARLY

3


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

54


39


15.8


23.4


7.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7300 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 16, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 CAT LAK 7/2




# 3 COME ON CALLIE 15/1




# 8 SPRINGDETTI 9/2




CAT LAK is the best wager in this race. Looks very good to be up near the front end at the first call. Could provide positive gains based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 60. Posted a formidable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. COME ON CALLIE - Has earned reliable speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. SPRINGDETTI - Blinkers on could be the difference here. Has been running solidly in races of this distance, going 4 / 25 under similar conditions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:17pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 80

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 CALL ME JELLY ROLL (ML=5/2)
#5 THEATERINTHEROUND (ML=8/1)


CALL ME JELLY ROLL - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. This filly is in excellent physical condition right now. Finished second last time out and comes back soon. This filly garnered a strong figure of 70 in her last clash. That speed rating should be good enough to score this time. THEATERINTHEROUND - I am keen on that last race on Nov 21st at Charles Town where she ran first. This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Magee. Better watch out for this angle. On Nov 21st this mare shipped in to take the top prize and looks good right back. Ranks at the top in earnings per start. A solid performance in this race will boost the lifetime earnings. Many times a thoroughbred with a good sod record like this one's will adapt to the tight bullring turns.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 DAZZLE ME (ML=8/5), #4 LADY MADISON (ML=5/1), #1 DAH PHILLY (ML=6/1),

DAZZLE ME - November 19th is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. This steed ran a common rating in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure. LADY MADISON - The speed fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued contestant. DAH PHILLY - On a downward sequence. Equibase speed figs keep decreasing.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CALL ME JELLY ROLL - This noble animal should be your speculating choice today. This filly has posted improving speed figures in her last two events.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #2 CALL ME JELLY ROLL to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 93

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 EVERY CHICKS FAVORIT 5/1




# 9 APOLLITICAL WINNER 9/5




# 1 MY LOUISIANA KISS 7/2




EVERY CHICKS FAVORIT has a very good shot to take this race. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 86 speed figure which is one of the best in this group of animals. Is a contender - given the 82 speed figure from his most recent race. Has a strong shot in this event if you like back class. APOLLITICAL WINNER - Could best this group here, showing competitive figs of late. He has a good opportunity here as handler, Carrillo, has sharp win rate with horses going this distance. MY LOUISIANA KISS - Has performed quite well as of late in short races, posting a nifty 70 avg Equibase speed fig. Has been racing very well in races of this distance, going 2 - 12 under similar conditions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,400 Class Rating: 59

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 JOZANI R V F (ML=3/1)
#7 LISTON (ML=10/1)


JOZANI R V F - The rider/trainer tandem of Otero and Kravets has a strong ROI together. Last raced at Penn National in a race with a class rating of 64. Dropping considerably in class rating this time out puts him in a solid position today. Have to give this colt a shot. Ran a solid outing last race out within the last thirty days. Colt is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big race today. LISTON - Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the capability to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ALL TACKED UP (ML=5/2), #1 UNSUNG HERO (ML=5/1), #2 PICK EM' UP (ML=6/1),

ALL TACKED UP - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of races. UNSUNG HERO - This animal doesn't have a conquering disposition. Quite often finishes second or third. PICK EM' UP - I just don't have a 'use' feeling about this steed in this contest.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 JOZANI R V F to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds



12/16/20, FG, Race 7, 3.54 CT
12/16/20,FG,7,1M 70Y [Dirt] 1:41:00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $15,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, if for $10,000, allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
5
Papa Molly
6/1
Arrieta F
Hartman Chris A.
J
198
34.34
1.43/$1


098.5162
7
Pretty Creative
8/1
Graham J
Desormeaux J. Keith


180
32.22
1.37/$1


097.5630
6
Charity for All
6/1
Hernandez. Jr. B J
Stewart Dallas


180
32.22
1.37/$1


097.0340
3
Mango Tree
9/2
Riquelme J
Dorochenko Gennadi
SWL
43
41.86
1.84/$1


095.0531
1
Bold Delivery
5/2
Saez G
Sharp Joe
FEC
43
41.86
1.84/$1


092.5222
2
Roll Tyler
4/1
Santana. Jr. R
Maker Michael J.
T
180
32.22
1.37/$1


091.8448
4
No Exaggeration
6/1
Murrill M
Desormeaux J. Keith


43
41.86
1.84/$1


091.7299
1A
Oxwood
5/2
Beschizza A
Sharp Joe


43
41.86
1.84/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.00, ROI 0.99/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Papa Molly
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]*2ndHorse98RatingAndTopHorse100Rating
*Scratches may change this condition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Wednesday, December 16

Richmond @ Vanderbilt
Richmond (4-1)
— Experience: #15
— Tempo: #51
— Continuity: #8
— ranked #58 by KenPom
— Spiders lost by 16 at West Virginia Sunday, their first loss.
— Richmond has top 100 wins over Kentucky, Northern Iowa

Vanderbilt (2-0)
— Experience: #260
— Tempo: #170
— Continuity: #90
— ranked #125 by KenPom
— Vandy beat Valparaiso by 6 and beat up on a stiff.
— Commodores took 61 3’s in first two games, making 29.5%.

UMass @ LaSalle
UMass (1-1)
— Experience: #316
— Tempo: #64
— Continuity: #219
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— UMass split a pair with Northeastern over the weekend.
— UMass didn’t sub much in first two games (#261 bench minutes)

LaSalle (2-3)
— Experience: #243
— Tempo: #262
— Continuity: #69
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— LaSalle lost three of four D-I games, falling to Saint Peter’s/Army.
— Explorers are turning ball over 24.5% of time (#290).

— UMass beat LaSalle twice LY, by 11-8 points.

Pittsburgh @ Miami
Pittsburgh (4-1)
— Experience: #297
— Tempo: #101
— Continuity: #94
— ranked #84 by KenPom
— Pitt won its only top 100 game, 71-70 at Northwestern.
— Panthers are shooting 30.1% on arc (#225), 62.7% on line (#271)

Miami (3-1)
— Experience: #113
— Tempo: #198
— Continuity:#48
— ranked #133 by KenPom
— Miami got upset by Florida Gulf Coast in its last game.
— Miami beat Purdue at home; they’re shooting 22.7% on arc (#308).

— Miami won seven of last eight games with Pitt.

Mercer @ Georgia State
Mercer (6-0)
— Experience: #130
— Tempo: #58
— Continuity: #263
— ranked #148 by KenPom
— Three of Mercer’s wins are vs non-D-I teams.
— Bears have road wins at Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern.
— Mercer has made 43.8% of its 3’s (#11)

Georgia State (3-1)
— Experience: #194
— Tempo: #32
— Continuity: #148
— ranked #110 by KenPom
— Panthers haven’t played in 12 days, since winning at Charlotte.
— State hasn’t rebounded well on defensive end (#312).

— Mercer made 11-26 on arc, beat Georgia State 86-69 at home Nov 30.
— Game was 42-37 at half; Mercer survived 19 turnovers (-4)

Ohio State @ Purdue
Ohio State (5-0)
— Experience: #92
— Tempo: #137
— Continuity: #156
— ranked #20 by KenPom
— Buckeyes won by 5 at Notre Dame, also beat four stiffs (schedule #266)
— Ohio State has rebounded 35.9% of their own missed shots (#27)

Purdue (4-2)
— Experience: #301
— Tempo: #273
— Continuity: #156
— ranked #32 by KenPom
— Purdue lost both top 100 games, to Clemson/Miami.
— Boilers are turning ball over 22.3% of time (#245)

— Purdue won four of last six series games.

South Florida @ Cincinnati
South Florida (4-2)
— Experience: #129
— Tempo: #246
— Continuity: #96
— ranked #104 by KenPom
— USF lost its two top 100 games, by 16-18 points (URI/Va Tech)
— Bulls turned ball over 20.8% of time (#216), are shooting 56.7% on line (#311)

Cincinnati (2-2)
— Experience: #157
— Tempo: #146
— Continuity: #178
— ranked #60 by KenPom
— Bearcats split first four games (schedule #47), beating Lipscomb/Furman.
— Cincy is shooting 25% on arc so far (21-84, #291)

— Cincinnati won last 11 series games; four of last five were by 12+ points.

Memphis @ Tulane
Memphis (4-3)
— Experience: #304
— Tempo: #16
— Continuity: #35
— ranked #54 by KenPom
— Memphis is 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, losing by 29-17-37 points.
— Tigers aren’t shooting well: 30.4% on arc (#219), 47.5% inside arc (#202).

Tulane (4-0)
— Experience: #312
— Tempo: #267
— Continuity: #276
— ranked #211 by KenPom
— Green Wave hasn’t played any tough teams yet (schedule #311)
— Best team Tulane beat? #216 Lipscomb 68-66

— Memphis won last 10 series games; they won here in OT last year.

Butler @ Villanova
Butler (1-0)
— Experience: #179
— Tempo: #323
— Continuity: #230
— ranked #61 by KenPom
— Butler hasn’t played since November 25.
— Bulldogs beat Western Michigan 66-62 in opener (trailed with 11:11 left in game)

Villanova (5-1, 1-0)
— Experience: #120
— Tempo: #350
— Continuity: #6
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Billikens beat LSU by 4; whacked three stiffs.
— Villanova has four top 10 0wins (schedule #31)
— Wildcats’ only loss was in OT to Virginia Tech.

— Villanova won five of last six series games.

Ole Miss @ Middle Tennessee
Ole Miss (3-0)
— Experience: #89
— Tempo: #254
— Continuity: #210
— ranked #41 by KenPom
— Rebels are giving up 59 ppg, forcing turnovers 31.5% of time.
— 4th game in seven days for Ole Miss, who’ve played schedule #300.

Middle Tennessee (2-3)
— Experience: #88
— Tempo: #53
— Continuity: #259
— ranked #192 by KenPom
— MTSU’s only D-I win is also their only top 100 game (Murray State)
— Blue Raiders have 3 losses to teams ranked #172 or lower.

— Kermit Davis coached the Blue Raiders for 16 years; they went 81-23 the last three.
— Ole Miss beat MTSU twice, by 18-18 points, since Davis moved to Oxford.

UTEP @ Arizona State
UTEP (2-2)
— Experience: #155
— Tempo: #253
— Continuity: #183
— ranked #186 by KenPom.
— UTEP lost by 12 at Saint Mary’s, by 8 at Arizona.
— Miners’ two wins are vs non-D-I teams.
— UTEP plays seven guys; two guys played 40:00 vs Saint Mary’s

Arizona State (4-2)
— Experience: #161
— Tempo: #13
— Continuity: #129
— ranked #46 by KenPom.
— Sun Devils are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100; they’ve played schedule #70.
— ASU hit a buzzer beater to nip Grand Canyon 71-70 rival.
— Sun Devils are forcing turnovers 22.5% of the time (#69)

East Carolina @ SMU
East Carolina (5-0)
— Experience: #107
— Tempo: #206
— Continuity: #1
— ranked #126 by KenPom
— ECU has played an assortment of meatballs (schedule #286)
— Pirates have a road win, 66-57 at Charlotte.
— ECU has made 37.7% of its 3’s (#57)

SMU (4-0)
— Experience: #63
— Tempo: #156
— Continuity: #70
— ranked #52 by KenPom
— SMU won by a hoop at Dayton, beat three stiffs.
— Mustangs are forcing turnovers 23.8% of time (#42).

— SMU won 10 of last 11 meetings; they lost at ECU last year.

Duke @ Notre Dame
Duke (2-2)
— Experience: #317
— Tempo: #91
— Continuity: #234
— ranked #13 by KenPom
— Duke’s best player Johnson (foot) is out.
— First road trip for Duke; they lost both top 100 games, to Michigan St, Illinois.
— Duke turned ball over 21.5% of time so far (#229)

Notre Dame (2-2)
— Experience: #80
— Tempo: #244
— Continuity:#107
— ranked #75 by KenPom
— Notre Dame split first four games, vs schedule #20.
— Irish are shooting 41.6% on arc (#16); they gave up 80-90 points in their losses.

— Duke won last six series games, last four by 18+ points.

TCU @ Oklahoma State
TCU (5-2, 0-1)
— Experience: #291
— Tempo: #345
— Continuity: #109
— ranked #62 by KenPom
— TCU split four top 100 games, losing to Oklahoma/Providence.
— Horned Frogs are 2-0 on neutral floors; this is their first true road game.

Oklahoma State (4-1)
— Experience: #295
— Tempo: #62
— Continuity: #270
— ranked #44 by KenPom
— Cowboys’ six wins are vs schedule #177.
— OSU already has 3 road wins, including Marquette/Wichita State.

— Home side won last five series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

653RICHMOND -654 VANDERBILT
VANDERBILT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons.

655MASSACHUSETTS -656 LASALLE
LASALLE is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

655MASSACHUSETTS -656 LASALLE
MASSACHUSETTS are 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

657TX-SAN ANTONIO -658 OREGON ST
OREGON ST is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite in the last 3 seasons.

659NEBRASKA-OMAHA -660 COLORADO
NEBRASKA-OMAHA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

661TOLEDO -662 MARSHALL
TOLEDO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

663PITTSBURGH -664 MIAMI
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

665SAN DIEGO -666 CAL POLY-SLO
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the last 3 seasons.

669OHIO ST -670 PURDUE
PURDUE is 72-41 ATS (26.9 Units) in home games after one or more consecutive overs since 1997.

671S FLORIDA -672 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 56-99 ATS (-52.9 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.

673MEMPHIS -674 TULANE
TULANE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders in the last 3 seasons.

677BUTLER -678 VILLANOVA
VILLANOVA is 20-8 ATS (11.2 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Dec 16 '20, 7:30 PM in 39m
NCAA-B | Southern vs UAB
Play on: UAB -15 -110 at BetCris

PICK - UAB Blazers -15
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 1116
I will gladly lay the 15 with UAB at home against Southern. There was definitely a buzz around this Blazers team coming into this season. A big reason for that is they landed Andy Kennedy as their new head coach.
Kennedy took over a UAB team that returned their top 3 scorers from last year in guards Tavin Lovan (13.2 ppg), Jalen Benjamin (11.9 ppg) and Tyreek Scott-Grayson (10.0 ppg). He then went out and added two Top 50 rated grad transfers in Michael Ertel and Quantizing Jackson. The only non-power 5 program to land two such grad transfers ranked in the Top 50. Both are paying off, as Ertel leads the team in scoring at 14.3 ppg and Jackson is second at 13.3 ppg.
They also added 7'0 big man Trey Jemison, who has been a force for the Blazers. Jemison is averaging 9.5 ppg 8.5 rpg and a staggering 3.7 blocks/game.
It's really not a shock given all this talent that UAB has started out this season 6-0 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS. I see no reason here not to ride this thing out, especially at this price. Southern is 0-3 with 27-point loss to Iowa and 35 point loss to Arkansas.
I just don't how the Jaguars are going to score enough to keep this within 20-points. Southern comes in shooting 37.1% from the field and just 27.5% from behind the 3-point line. UAB's defense is limiting teams to 56.2 ppg, 33.3% shooting from the field and 22.9% from deep. Give me the Blazers -15!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer Dec 16 '20, 9:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Duke vs Notre Dame
Play on: UNDER 147 -110

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 12/16:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for the Wednesday college basketball card is with Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Duke (2-2) looks to rebound from an 83-68 loss at home to Illinois on December 8th. The Blue Devils have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Duke has also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Notre Dame (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 64-63 upset victory at Kentucky on Saturday. The Fighting Irish covered the +7.5-point spread as the underdog in that game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Notre Dame has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a home underdog. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan Dec 16 '20, 9:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Duke vs Notre Dame
Play on: Notre Dame +4 -108 at Draft Kings

Notre Dame +4
The Fighting Irish are worth the flyer. Duke has just been a wreck this season. They haven't found any sort of rhythm or momentum as they come in off a blowout loss to Illinois. The confidence for this team is at an all time low and they just haven't been able to find any playmakers to step up. Notre Dame is scrappy and should have a chance to steal this one.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Wednesday 5* Free CBB ATS Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Dec 16 '20, 11:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Montana vs Washington
Play on: Washington -7 -108 at pinnacle

1* on Washington -7 -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: Jacksonville St -8 over Tennessee Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: MEMPHIS -8½ over Tulane

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Wednesday's Free Selection: Mississippi/Middle Tennessee State under 134

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins ROZ's WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2020
Free Pick

CBK
670. Purdue -4.5 (4 PT / 7 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports
Wednesday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: SMU - 12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Wednesday's Free Play: Northern Colorado Bears + 6 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the Pittsburgh Panthers -3 over Miami-Fla

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play WEDNESDAY, December 16, 2020
CBK
662. Marshall -6.5 (3 PT / 6 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Wednesday Selection Is
TCU +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Wednesday : Take OKLAHOMA -17 over Oral Roberts

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Wednesday
Washington -8'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Wednesday's Free Pick: SMU Mustangs - 12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports
Wednesday Free Play:
Cincinnati -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

WED St Mary's -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports FREE PICK 12/16 SYACUSE UNDER 145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Wednesday: OKLAHOMA ST -5½ over TCU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Wednesday: Montana Grizzlies + 8 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Wednesday: Washington -7½