Saturday 12/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (201977) Valencia at (201978) Barcelona FC
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: December 19, 2020 10AM EST
Play: Total Under 3.5 (-115)
PLAY: UNDER 3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michaels Event: (203) Florida State at (204) Wake Forest
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 19, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Total Over 66.0 (-110)
free play OVER 66 Florida St/ Wake Forest

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman Event: Fortuna Sittard at Utrecht
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: December 19, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Utrecht -1.5 (+100)
Netherlands Eredivisie
Looking at the table, both teams have just two wins on the season. Utrecht coming in with a 2-6-3 record and -4 goal differential while Sittard is 2-3-7 with a -13 goal differential. So why do I would we want to lay -1.5 goals on a team with just two wins and a negative goal differential?
Well, all their metrics are still good, in fact, they have the 5th best xG differential in the league at +0.60 per game which is right where you would expect this team to be. Last year, Utrecht had a 12-5-8 record and a +16 goal differential and were sitting 6th in the table when they remainder of the season was cancelled due to the COVID pandemic
Compare that to Sittard who had a 6-8-12 record and a much more telling -23 goal differential and were sitting 16th out of 18 teams in the league.
This year, Sittard is not any better as they are allowing the 2nd most xGA per game at 2.09 and have the third worst xG differential at -1.07. Compare that to the current +0.60 number I mentioned for Utrecht and now you can see why we are seeing this -1.5 line currently.
Utrecht is too good to be held down for too long and eventually their goals will come as they are creating plenty of chances. Sittard is a great team to take advantage of and I’m thinking we finally see their goals start to pour in, or at least enough to cover this number.
TAKE UTRECHT -1.5
Line Parameter: 3% to -1.75, but pay up to -125 to get -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (233) UL Lafayette at (234) Coastal Carolina
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 19, 2020 3PM EST
Play: UL Lafayette +3.5 (-115)
PLAY: UL LAFAYETTE +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn Event: (241) Boise State at (242) San Jose State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 19, 2020 4PM EST
Play: San Jose State +6.5 (-110)
In this 2020 college football fan's orbit if Brent Brennan doesn't receive a mention or look-see as the College Football Coach of the Year, then it is impossible to respect the process that the NCAA uses in capturing the pulse pigskin nation. In terms of Brennan being the Mountain West Coach of the Year, that is a done deal.
The San Jose State program has been as consistent as any team in the nation in terms of being above average, but for the most part, the vanilla texture of the program has made them nearly invisible. The 1-11 2018 Spartans enter Championship Weekend as what I consider the favorites to win the MWC title.
And suppose anyone understands the weightlessness of historic numbers in the football realm as I do, then using the Boise State Broncos perfect 14-0 record as league foes as a handicap foundation. In that case, they need to return to taking their medications.

The San Jose Spartans and their longstanding faithful will be making a road trip to Tucson after Christmas to watch the young men of San Jose, California, take part in the Arizona Bowl on New Year's eve.
Play on San Jose Spartans -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers Event: (241) Boise State at (242) San Jose State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 19, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Total Under 55.5 (-110)
Take Boise State – San Jose State UNDER (#241-242)
Brent Brennan’s Spartans have played five games in this abbreviated season. They’ve gone 5-0 to the Under, holding four of their five opponents to 20 points or less, including Nevada’s potent aerial attack last week. QB Nick Starkel has created a handful of big plays, but this offense is more ‘dink and dunk’ than ‘explosive chunk’. Against the two good defenses Boise has faced in 202 – BYU and Wyoming – the Broncos were held to 17 points each time. Their leading rusher is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only one pass catcher – Khalil Shakir – has shown consistent, big play potential. Boise hung 52 on this team last year in a wild shootout. I’m expecting the opposite of that on Saturday! Take the UNDER.
Teddy enters the weekend hitting 68% in the NFL over the past seven weeks; delivering consistent profits for himself & his clients! Teddy’s college football is making $$ too, cashing at a 69% clip over the past four weeks! Ride the hot hand & get onboard!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant Event: (237) Tulsa at (238) Cincinnati
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 19, 2020 8PM EST
Play: Tulsa +14.5 (-110)
NO PLAY at worse than +14
The Bearcats are undefeated and ranked 9th in the College Football Playoff Rankings. The offense is potent and the defense has allowed just 15 points per game. But I think this line is a tad high. Tulsa's D is allowing just 19.9 points per game. The Golden Hurricanes defense held the potent offenses of SMU, Central Florida, and Oklahoma State to under 27 points each. Against four common AAC opponents this season, Tulsa was +11 points per game and +54 yards per game, while Cincinnati was +23 points per game and +168 yards per game. Yes, Cincinnati is at home for this title game, but these title game home favorites are just 7-7 ATS in the last 14. Tulsa is 5-1 ATS as an AAC dog over the last two seasons, and I like its chances of staying within the number. Play TULSA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 15: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Indianapolis Colts offense has picked up the pace, making them one of the top two-way teams in the NFL heading into the home stretch of the season. Books have the Colts as 7-point home chalk versus Houston in Week 15.

When we started this crazy train called the 2020 NFL season, Week 15 was a stop on the schedule we weren’t quite sure we’d make it to. And while the track has bent a few times due to COVID-19 outbreaks, we have officially hit the home stretch.

Regardless of what’s happened along the way – and there’s been plenty – the best NFL betting strategy way back in Week 1 remains the best approach for the Week 15 odds: get the best of the number. To do so, you’ve got to time your NFL picks perfectly.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and the best to bet later.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7): Bet Now

The Colts dismantled the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14, cruising to a 44-27 victory as 2.5-point road faves in Sin City. Indianapolis’ offense is starting to match strides with its defense (averaging 32.5 points over its last four outings), which is a scary thought for the rest of the AFC.

Oddsmakers pegged the Colts as low as 6-point home chalk on last week’s lookahead lines, but after running over the Raiders and the Texans’ 36-7 tumble in Chicago, Indy officially opened at -7 and this line has already jumped to -7.5 at some sharper books.

The Colts are 9-4 SU and tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South. And with the Titans hosting downtrodden Detroit in Week 15, this homestand versus Houston is a must-win matchup for Frank Reich’s squad. Indianapolis beat the Texans 26-20 in Houston two weeks ago, covering as 3.5-point road chalk, and won’t be sitting at a touchdown much longer for Sunday's clash. Get the Colts at -7 while you can.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+4): Bet Later

This spread has already made some serious moves, so if you’re leaning toward New Orleans you might as well wait it out. Books posted Kansas City as low as a 3-point road favorite and that field-goal spread didn’t last long, with money on the visitor powering this spread through the key number to -3.5 and eventually landing on -4 as of Sunday night.

Granted, the Chiefs didn’t look great in their win over the Miami Dolphins, first spotting the Fins 10 points out of the gates then blowing a 30-10 lead, to the dismay of K.C. bettors laying -7.5. The Chiefs allowed 17 points in the fourth quarter and squeezed out a 33-27 victory at Hard Rock Stadium. But at least they didn’t lose to the Eagles.

Nothing piles on the points like losing to a lowly NFC East team, as well as a rookie quarterback making his first start. The Saints played a sloppy game in Philadelphia and fell 24-21 as 7.5-point road faves. New Orleans was hoping to have Drew Brees back for this potential Super Bowl preview, but it doesn’t look like the veteran gunslinger is healthy enough. That’s too bad, because this Taysom Hill-lead offense has looked flat the past two weeks and isn’t ready for a shootout with Patrick Mahomes & Co.

With the spread at K.C. -4, it won’t take much more action to move this line and move it quickly. Bookmakers are hasty to adjust through dead numbers (margins of victory that don’t occur often) and if the public piles on the Chiefs, I could see this sitting -5 or maybe even -5.5 by gameday. If you like NOLA, hold off and see how high this will go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Under 51.5): Bet Now

Neither offense is setting the scoreboard ablaze the past month, with the Tampa Toms averaging less than 25 points over the past three outings and Matt Ryan and the Falcons floundering for scores of nine, 16 and 17 points in three of their past four contests.

But, on the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have held more than their own. The Buccaneers defense has limited foes to only 22.6 points per game on the season while Atlanta has flexed its defensive muscles since canning Dan Quinn in mid-October, giving up an average of just over 20 points per game over its last eight appearances.

These NFC South rivals have yet to play each other in 2020, with Sunday marking the first of two meetings in the final three weeks of the schedule. This Over/Under opened 51.5 and the vig on the Under is starting to climb to -115 at most books, with select markets already dropping to 51 points. If you plan to plunder the Under, get all the points you can now.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Over 47): Bet Later

The total for this NFC North contest opened at 47 points and is already ticking downward with the number getting as low as 46 at some books Sunday night. Truthfully, this is a tough total to tackle in Week 15 with the Bears' production about as easy to plot as a drunken stumble home from the bar (if bars were still a thing. Thanks COVID... you dick).

Chicago unleashed 36 points on Houston in Week 14, a week removed from a 30-point showing against Detroit. In fact, over the past three games, the Bears have scored more points (91) than they did in the previous five games combined (86), including a 19-13 loss to Minnesota that stayed Under 44.5 points in Week 10. Glad to see that Nick Foles money going to good use. Yeesh.

The Vikings were tripped up in Tampa this past Sunday, starting out strong but watching kicker Dan Bailey botch kick after kick, which sucked all the energy out of the Minnesota offense. The Vikes are in dire need of a victory to stay in the postseason picture and score plenty of points on the fast indoor turf of U.S. Bank Stadium (29.1 points per home game). The Over/Under trends between these divisional foes scream Under (3-6 O/U last nine meetings) but if you’re into bucking the trends and taking the Over, be patient and see if this dips below 46 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 15
Matt Blunt

Week 15 NFL Betting Angles

Fifteen weeks into the NFL season and I'm getting excited for this regular season to conclude, if for no other reason then it's getting harder and harder to find significant and actionable patterns in all the raw data each week to craft this piece.

Streaks and runs that I've brought up in the recent past all eventually come to an end – fading the highest-scoring team over their past three games and backing the lowest-scoring team in their past three games went 0-2 ATS on Sunday (fade Tennessee, back Cincinnati) – which was to be expected from someone like me who believes riding streaks in this industry is flawed to begin with.

Those same two teams – Tennessee and Cincinnati – enter Week 15 in those same roles (fade Tennessee, play on Cincinnati) in the PPG over the last three situations.

But riding streaks is still a popular way to approach handicapping games, so this week's piece is for all the streak chasers out there that may prefer to use this year's data only.

It's actionable enough for this week for a few specific games, but as always, should only be used as support – if they so choose - for one's overall argument in why to back a team.

The following information also suggests the limitations there are with riding streaks from a pure numbers standpoint in oddsmakers adjusting spreads (and totals), so keep that in mind as well.

Hopefully I can continue to find the patterns in the raw data these next two weeks, but for Week 15, let's go with this:

Who's Hot

-- The Philadelphia Eagles have never won two straight games ATS in 2020
-- The New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have not lost two straight games ATS in 2020

Thanks to the Dolphins late comeback and squeaking through the back door against Kansas City on Sunday, they actually aren't applicable in Week 15, but after the Eagles won and covered against New Orleans, and the Giants lost both SU and ATS to Arizona, we've now got those two NFC East teams in roles of fade and play on in Week 15.

Fading the Eagles means that backing the Arizona Cardinals – the team to just beat NYG – as favorites of around a TD currently would make the card.

Who Could You Follow in Week 15?

New York Giants
Arizona Cardinals

Based on what we've seen last, going against the underdog Eagles will be tough for some to stomach given they looked like a team that was completely rejuvenated with the quarterback switch they made handing things over to rookie Jalen Hurts.

Hurts and the Eagles offense did a lot of things that worked against one of the league's top defenses on Sunday, and now they get to face a Cardinals team that's got a defense that's a huge step back (statistically) then what the Eagles saw from New Orleans.

Interestingly enough, another Hurts start this week pits the last two Oklahoma Sooners QB's against one another, the second time in their young careers that Hurts and Kyler Murray will share a field with one another.

The first came back in the 2018 College Football Playoff semifinal game between Oklahoma and Alabama, when Hurts was the backup QB for Alabama in a 45-34 win by the Crimson Tide.

Hurts will throw more than one pass attempt this time around though, but at the same time, you can't take a whole lot away from Arizona and how thoroughly they dominated the Giants. That same New York team that is 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) and probably should have swept the season series with Philadelphia.

The Eagles are a different team now with the QB switch, but it's still a rookie QB making his first career road start, historically a bad situation for backing said rookies.

But as has been the case in 2020, rookie QB's making their first road start has completely flipped (4-0 ATS) - thanks to no screaming fans - as there has been a 35-30 loss (but ATS win) for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati @ Cleveland, a 34-31 SU win (and ATS win) for Tua Tagovailoa and Miami @ this same Arizona Cardinals team, a 38-31 SU loss (but ATS win) for Justin Herbert and LAC @ Tampa Bay, and a 24-20 SU loss (but ATS win) for Jake Luton and Jacksonville vs Green Bay.

So pick which streak you want to side with there.

Backing the New York Giants this week means that you'll be taking points with them at home vs Cleveland on Sunday Night Football, a line that will undoubtedly react to whatever the Browns performance on Monday Night Football turns out to be. As of this writing – three hours before MNF – New York is catching +3.5 most places as the home 'dog there, a number that likely won't drop too much further should Cleveland put up a stinker vs Baltimore, but one that will surely grow should the Browns go out and win convincingly on MNF.

It's the second straight week in this piece that the suggestion has been to go against Cleveland, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The Cleveland Browns as a “hunted” team is such a new concept to wrap your head around this year after so many years of futility, and yet, even in situations that have nothing to directly do with Cleveland, we can still find positive situations for their opponent to suggest fading Cleveland like the popular choice has been for years. That's got to feel like par for the course for Browns fans.

My apologies.


Who's Not

No NFL team this year has had an ATS winning streak of longer than 5 games

So you want to subscribe to riding ATS streaks huh?

Well, what if I told you that only 10 of the 32 teams this year have had losing ATS streaks of more than three games?

What about winning ATS streaks of more than three games only happening for 10 of the 32 NFL teams as well?

Sure, every game and team should be taken under their own consideration and merits, but this year in the NFL, good and bad ATS runs seem to get capped out at three games. The worst of those was Dallas starting 0-8 ATS, with a six-game losing streak against the number for the L.A. Chargers and N.Y. Jets coming in a close 2nd.

The other two teams to go on five-game losing ATS runs – Arizona and Jacksonville – each covered the number the following week (Arizona was this past week vs Giants), and interestingly enough, it's the Kansas City Chiefs who are next up in Week 15 having dropped their last five against the number.

Who Could You Fade in Week 15?

Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs visit New Orleans on SNF which you know will be hyped up in those awful ways I mentioned last week, but this is not about finding an outside-of-the-box reason to back a KC team that looks to be the best in football.

It's about fading the one team that comes into Week 15 on a 5-0 ATS run currently; the Buffalo Bills.

Only WWE commissioner Vince McMahon has a bigger annual budget for breakable tables than "Bills Mafia" members do, although that could have changed with how flush Bills backers bankrolls are right now having gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS their last five games, the lone loss coming on Kyler Murray's walk-off Hail Mary a few weeks back in the desert.

Buffalo's got a quicker turnaround this week with a Saturday date in Denver against the Broncos, and off their SNF win over Pittsburgh, an opening number of Buffalo -5.5 has already jumped a full point. Buffalo is also the 4th NFL team this year to have a shot at covering the spread in six consecutive games, with Pittsburgh (-14 chalk vs Dallas), Miami (-4 chalk vs Denver), and New Orleans (-7.5 chalk vs Philadelphia) all failing in their previous bids to cover six in a row.

Finally, it's interesting to see the Denver Broncos already responsible for stopping one of those previous five-game ATS streaks as a home underdog against another AFC East franchise.

Hard not to have the saying “history always repeats itself” come to mind there. Four of the five Bills games during this streak have had them close in the +/- 3 range, with the home game against the Chargers seeing Buffalo close at -4.5.

So how many points is too many here?

One more note, Washington enters Week 15 on a four-game ATS run, so keep an eye on what they do in Week 15 as home dogs vs Seattle.

Another ATS victory there would put Washington in this fade role in Week 16 when they host Carolina.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Saturday, December 19

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CAROLINA (4 - 9) at GREEN BAY (10 - 3) - 12/19/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 121-87 ATS (+25.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 205-149 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (10 - 3) at DENVER (5 - 8) - 12/19/2020, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 15

Trend Report

Saturday, December 19

Buffalo @ Denver
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games at home

Carolina @ Green Bay
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

343CAROLINA -344 GREEN BAY
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

345BUFFALO -346 DENVER
DENVER is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 15 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Washington quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf and sat out the second half of a win over the 49ers. His Week 15 status is uncertain, and WFT quickly moved from +3.5 to +5 against Seattle.

NFL Week 14 wrapped up on time Monday night, and it's on to NFL Week 15 odds, with several betting factors already in play. That includes the typical injury information, including Washington potentially being without quarterback Alex Smith and running back Antonio Gibson.

Week 15 Injuries

Washington Football Team: Quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf in the first half of Washington's win over San Francisco and sat out the second half. His status is uncertain Sunday at home against Seattle, as is the status of running back Antonio Gibson (turf toe), who didn't play against the 49ers. The SuperBook opened WFT +3.5, and that number shot to +4.5 Sunday night and to +5 Monday morning. The total opened at 43 and ticked up to 43.5 Monday.

Carolina Panthers: Running back Christian McCaffrey couldn't make Week 14, but it looks as if he'll be on the field for a Saturday night game at Green Bay. McCaffrey was set to return from a shoulder injury last week, then suffered a thigh injury in practice. Carolina opened +9 at The SuperBook on Sunday evening and moved to +8.5 Monday morning.

Detroit Lions: Quarterback Matthew Stafford hurt his ribs late in a Week 14 home loss to Green Bay, and his status for a Week 15 Sunday tilt at Tennessee won't be determined until later in the week. As such, the Lions-Titans game is off the board Monday at The SuperBook.

Miami Dolphins: Wideouts DeVante Parker (leg) and Jakeem Grant (hamstring), and tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) all got hurt in Sunday's loss to Kansas City. As of Monday, the status for all three is uncertain, with Grant appearing the least likely to play in Sunday's home game against New England. The early line movement at The SuperBook helped reflect that, as the Dolphins opened -3 and dipped to -2.5 Sunday night. The total dropped 1.5 points by Monday afternoon, to 41.

Philadelphia Eagles: Philly has a cluster of injuries in the defensive backfield. Safety Rodney McLeod (torn ACL) is done for the year, and cornerbacks Darius Slay (concussion protocol) and Avonte Maddox (knee) are uncertain for Sunday's game at Arizona. The Eagles opened +5.5 at The SuperBook and were already up to +6.5 Monday.


Week 15 Weather

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: There's a 30 percent chance of snow early in the day, ahead of this Saturday night contest. The main issue noted in the early forecast will simply be that it's chilly during the game, with temperatures in the upper 20s and light winds of 5-10 mph.
Week 15 Consensus

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 15

Saturday’s games
Panthers (4-9) @ Green Bay (10-3)
— Carolina lost seven of its last eight games; they covered 3 of last 5.
— Panthers are 4-9 despite a +5 turnover ratio.
— Panthers covered their last five games as road underdogs.
— Carolina is 0-9 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Last three weeks, Panthers outscored opponents 53-37 in second half.
— Carolina is 1-5 this year in games decided by 5 or fewer points.

— Green Bay won five of last six games, scoring 32.8 ppg in last four.
— Packers scored 30+ points in nine of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 76-153 third down plays (49.7%)
— Packers are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite, 4-2 TY.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten Green Bay games.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in 8 of their last 10 games.

— Home side won last four series games.
— Teams split last eight games overall.
— Panthers lost five of last seven visits to Lambeau; they lost 24-16 there LY.

Bills (10-3) @ Denver (5-8)
— Buffalo won six of its last seven games, covered last five.
— Bills outscored last five opponents 83-39 in first half.
— Buffalo has a 2-game lead over Miami in the AFC East.
— Bills scored 24+ points in nine of their ten wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-3 TY.
— Over is 9-4 in their games this season.

— Denver lost six of last eight games, covered three of last four.
— Denver is 2-4 SU at home, giving up 34.7 ppg in last three home tilts.
— Broncos are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as home dogs, 3-3 TY.
— Denver turned ball over 18 times (-11) in their last eight games.
— Four of their six home games stayed under total.
— Denver K McManus tested positive for COVID Monday, is a ?? here.

— Buffalo won four of last five series games.
— Bills lost three of last four visits to Denver, with last visit in 2014.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.


Saturday, Dec. 19

BUFFALO at DENVER
Into last Sunday night vs. Steelers, Bills were on four straight covers after win vs. 49ers, also now 8-3-1 “over” this season.
Denver 13-7 last 20 as dog, also “under” 4-1 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY
Panthers have been tough on road, covered last four away, all as dog.
Rhule 7-1 last 8 as dog in 2020.

Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 19

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GEORGIA TECH (3 - 7) at MIAMI (8 - 2) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA ST (3 - 6) at WAKE FOREST (4 - 4) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AIR FORCE (3 - 2) at ARMY (8 - 2) - 12/19/2020, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 1-1 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (3 - 3) at WISCONSIN (2 - 3) - 12/19/2020, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ILLINOIS (2 - 5) at PENN ST (3 - 5) - 12/19/2020, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 143-182 ATS (-57.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 143-182 ATS (-57.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
PENN ST is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
PENN ST is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 1-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN (2 - 4) at IOWA (6 - 2) - 12/19/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (2 - 5) at MARYLAND (2 - 3) - 12/19/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MARYLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON ST (1 - 2) at UTAH (2 - 2) - 12/19/2020, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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STANFORD (3 - 2) at UCLA (3 - 3) - 12/19/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 71-49 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
STANFORD is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
STANFORD is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-0 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-1 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OREGON (3 - 2) vs. COLORADO (4 - 1) - 12/19/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
OREGON is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA ST (1 - 2) at OREGON ST (2 - 4) - 12/19/2020, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON ST is 125-94 ATS (+21.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (0 - 5) at CALIFORNIA (1 - 3) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NORTHWESTERN (6 - 1) vs. OHIO ST (5 - 0) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 202-154 ATS (+32.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 202-154 ATS (+32.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 171-134 ATS (+23.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OHIO ST is 134-101 ATS (+22.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 183-139 ATS (+30.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 63-39 ATS (+20.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA (7 - 2) vs. IOWA ST (8 - 2) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 3-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-1 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAFAYETTE (9 - 1) at COASTAL CAROLINA (11 - 0) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
LA LAFAYETTE is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
COASTAL CAROLINA is 2-1 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
COASTAL CAROLINA is 2-1 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEMSON (9 - 1) vs. NOTRE DAME (10 - 0) - 12/19/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULSA (6 - 1) at CINCINNATI (8 - 0) - 12/19/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TULSA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TULSA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TULSA is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ALABAMA (10 - 0) vs. FLORIDA (8 - 2) - 12/19/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
ALABAMA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ALABAMA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
ALABAMA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ALABAMA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BOISE ST (5 - 1) vs. SAN JOSE ST (6 - 0) - 12/19/2020, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 157-116 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 157-116 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 52-27 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 98-70 ATS (+21.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 89-59 ATS (+24.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS A&M (7 - 1) at TENNESSEE (3 - 6) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VANDERBILT (0 - 9) at GEORGIA (7 - 2) - 12/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANDERBILT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
GEORGIA is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 2-0 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OLE MISS (4 - 4) at LSU (4 - 5) - 12/19/2020, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 1-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 2-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MISSOURI (5 - 4) at MISSISSIPPI ST (2 - 7) - 12/19/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UTSA (7 - 4) vs. SMU (7 - 3) - 12/19/2020, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 16

Trend Report

Saturday, December 19

Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 5 games when playing Georgia
Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Georgia
Georgia is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Vanderbilt
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia's last 7 games

Texas A&M @ Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas A&M's last 9 games on the road
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games

Florida State @ Wake Forest
Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games when playing Wake Forest
Florida State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Wake Forest
Wake Forest
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wake Forest's last 5 games when playing Florida State
Wake Forest is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Oklahoma @ Iowa State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Iowa State
Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Northwestern @ Ohio State
Northwestern
Northwestern is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Northwestern's last 7 games when playing Ohio State
Ohio State
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Northwestern

Washington State @ Utah
Washington State
Washington State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Washington State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Utah
Utah is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Utah is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

Air Force @ Army
Air Force
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Air Force's last 5 games when playing Army
Air Force is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Army
Army
Army is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Air Force

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Coastal Carolina
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Mississippi @ Louisiana State
Mississippi
Mississippi is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Louisiana State
Mississippi is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana State's last 5 games at home
Louisiana State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi

Missouri @ Mississippi State
Missouri
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Missouri's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Missouri's last 20 games
Mississippi State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Mississippi State's last 8 games

Clemson @ Notre Dame
Clemson
Clemson is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Clemson's last 6 games
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Notre Dame is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 10 games when playing on the road against Wisconsin
Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
Wisconsin is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Boise State @ San Jose State
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
San Jose State
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Southern Methodist @ Texas-San Antonio
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 6 games
Texas-San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas-San Antonio's last 8 games
Texas-San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Illinois @ Penn State
Illinois
Illinois is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Penn State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois's last 7 games when playing on the road against Penn State
Penn State
Penn State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Illinois
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Illinois

Michigan @ Iowa
Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan's last 5 games when playing Iowa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Iowa
Iowa
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Iowa is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Michigan State @ Maryland
Michigan State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 5 games when playing Maryland
Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Maryland
Maryland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Maryland's last 5 games when playing Michigan State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Maryland's last 7 games

Alabama @ Florida
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida
Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games when playing Alabama

Tulsa @ Cincinnati
Tulsa
Tulsa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tulsa is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Stanford @ California-Los Angeles
Stanford
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against California-Los An
Stanford is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing California-Los Angeles
California-Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of California-Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Stanford
California-Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Oregon @ Colorado
Oregon
Oregon is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Colorado
Oregon is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Colorado
Colorado
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Arizona State @ Oregon State
Arizona State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona State's last 9 games when playing on the road against Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games
Oregon State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oregon State's last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona State
Oregon State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

201GEORGIA TECH -202 MIAMI
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.

203FLORIDA ST -204 WAKE FOREST
WAKE FOREST is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) vs bad defenses (>31 PPG) in the last 3 seasons.

205AIR FORCE -206 ARMY
ARMY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against the Mountain West since 1992.

207NEBRASKA -208 RUTGERS
RUTGERS are 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.

209PURDUE -210 INDIANA
INDIANA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) against conference opponents in the current season.

211MINNESOTA -212 WISCONSIN
WISCONSIN is 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

215MICHIGAN -216 IOWA
MICHIGAN is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

217MICHIGAN ST -218 MARYLAND
MICHIGAN ST is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) after the first month of the season in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 16
Bruce Marshall

Week 16 of the College Football season kicks off on Friday, Dec. 18 and concludes on Saturday, Dec. 19.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS matchups and focus on the 10 Championships on tap.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Saturday, Dec. 19

Florida State at Wake Forest (ACC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
FSU 2-6 vs. line this season
Seminoles are 15-28-2 vs. points since 2017
Wake 3-1-1 vs. line last five meetings
WF also on 5-1 spread run this season

Tech Edge: Wake Forest, based on team trends.

Air Force at Army (CBSSN, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Underdog team 4-0-1 vs. line last five meetings
Air Force has won and covered last three and 9 of last 10 meetings at Michie Stadium (NY)

Tech Edge: Air Force, especially if dog, based on team and series trends

Minnesota at Wisconsin (Big Ten, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Road team 5-0-1 vs. line last six in battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe

Tech Edge: Minnesota, based on series trends.

Illinois at Penn State (FS1, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Nittany Lions on a late-season surge, having won and covered last three after dropping first five.

Tech Edge: Penn State, based on recent trends.

Washington State at Utah (FS1, 1:30 p.m. ET)
Cougars have faltered since opening win at Oregon State
Washington State just 1-2 vs. line this season
Cougars are now on 5-13 spread skid since late 2018, dating to the Mike Leach era

Tech Edge: Utah, based on team trends.

Stanford at UCLA (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Bruins broke 10-game SU series losing streak (1-9 vs. line) in last year’s 34-16 win at Palo Alto
Stanford 4-12-1 vs. spread since 2019

Tech Edge: UCLA, based on recent trends.

Arizona State at Oregon State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Beavers continue to provide good spread value, now on 13-3-1 spread run last 17 on board

Tech Edge: OSU, based on team trends.

Northwestern at Ohio State (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Big Ten Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Northwestern 5-1 both SU and ATS this season
Wildcats are 13-3 as underdogs away from home since 2016
Buckeyes only 4-6 last 10 vs. spread since late 2019
'Cats also on 13-5 “under” run

Tech Edge: Northwestern and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Oklahoma at Iowa State (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Big 12 Championship
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Matt Campbell 2-3 SU but 5-0 vs. line against OU since arriving at Ames in 2016.
Cyclones 19-9-1 as underdogs for Campbell (counts OSU this year as push).

Tech Edge: Iowa State, based on series and team trends.

UL Lafayette at Coastal Carolina (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Sun Belt Championship
Brooks Stadium, Conway, South Carolina
ULL 9-2-1 last 12 as an underdog since early 2018
Though Coastal is 11-0 SU and 8-2-1 vs. ATS in 2020
Note road team has covered last two meetings including 48-7 ULL win at Conway last year.

Tech Edge: Slight to ULL, based on team and series trends.

Clemson at Notre Dame (ABC, 4:00 p.m. ET)
ACC Championship
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Rematch of ND’s 40-34 upset in OT back on Nov. 7
Irish head coach Brian Kelly 4-1 last five as a 'dog.
Clemson 11-3-1 ATS last 15 vs. ACC foes away from Death Valley
However, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney only 4-6 vs. line in 2020

Tech Edge: Slight to Clemson, based on extended trends.

Tulsa at Cincinnati (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
American Championship
Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Magical Tulsa has won last six SU and is 6-1 vs. spread in 2020
Golden Hurricane on 10-3 spread uptick since mid 2019, also “under” 7-3 last 10
Tulsa 6-1 last seven as a 'dog and covered last year vs. Cincy
Bearcats however on 8-3 spread advance since late 2019

Tech Edge: Tulsa and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Alabama at Florida (CBS, 8:00 p.m. ET)
SEC Championship
Mercedez-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Note Gators head coach Dan Mullen covered 4 of last 7 meetings while at MSU in games vs. Alabama
However, Mullen didn’t win outright in any of those, or in 9 tries vs. Nick Saban while coaching in Starkville
Crimson Tide has won and covered last seven in 2020

Tech Edge: Slight to Alabama, based on recent trends.

Boise State at San Jose State (FOX, 4:15 p.m. ET)
Mountain West Championship
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
SJSU is both 5-0 SU and ATS in 2020 (counting UNLV as a cover)
Spartans head coach Brent Brennan now on 14-4-1 spread uptick since late 2018
San Jose State has also covered seven straight as a dog and “under” 5-0 this season, “under” last six since late 2019
Boise State however “over” 5-0 in 2020

Tech Edge: San Jose State, based on team trends.

Texas A&M at Tennessee (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Vols 1-6 SU, 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, not closer than 12 points in any of the SU losses
Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher has covered 6 of last 8 on road
Note that Vols are 11-3 “under” since late 2019

Tech Edge: A&M and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Mississippi at LSU (SEC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
If getting points, note Rebels are 7-2-1 as 'dogs since last season (2-1 for Kiffin TY)
Ole Miss has also covered 6 of last 7 away Kiffin teams (FAU included)
Rebels are 7-3 “over” last 10 since late 2019

Tech Edge: Ole Miss and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Missouri at Mississippi State (SEC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Leach has covered two of last three two two seasons after dropping previous five
Also, Leach had been on 5-16 spread skid prior since late 2018 at Washington State
Bulldogs “under” 7-2 in 2020, on 10-3 “under” run since mid 2019

Tech Edge: “Under”, based on “totals”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Odds Week 16: Opening Lines and Sharp Money
Patrick Everson

Quarterback Ian Book and Notre Dame look to beat Clemson for the second time this season when the two teams meet Saturday in the ACC title game. But with Trevor Lawrence healthy, Clemson is -9.5.

College football odds for Week 16 are up and drawing dollars, with conference championship games dotting the schedule. Clemson gets a shot at revenge against Notre Dame in the ACC title tilt, while COVID issues forced Washington out of, and Oregon into, the Pac-12 finale against USC.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 16 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.

UAB at (21) Marshall Odds
Opening line
Marshall -5.5, Over/Under 41.5

Why the line moved
FanDuel opened the Thundering Herd 5.5-point home favorites in the Conference USA championship game, and the number is still Marshall -5.5 Monday night. Marshall is taking 86 percent of early tickets and 74 percent of early money. The total bounced from 41.5 to 42.5 and back to 41.5, but FanDuel's betting splits aren't yet available.

Ball State vs Buffalo Odds
Opening line
Buffalo -11.5, Over/Under 66.5

Why the line moved
Buffalo is already up two points Monday night at Fanduel, sitting at -13.5 for the Mid-American Conference title game at Detroit's Ford Field. The Bulls are drawing 86 percent of tickets and 97 percent of money. The total is steady at 66.5, though practically all the tickets and dollars through Monday night are on the Over.

(23) Oregon at (13) USC Odds
Opening line
Southern Cal -3.5, Over/Under 62.5

Why the line moved
Oregon is a substitute invitee to Friday night's Pac-12 championship game, after Washington had to withdraw Monday due to COVID issues within the program. Host USC opened -3.5 and remains there late Monday evening on some interesting early betting splits: 78 percent of tickets are on the Trojans, while 79 percent of money is on the Ducks.

The total is down a point to 61.5, though the early splits don't reflect that, with 87 percent of tickets and pretty much every dollar on the Over.

(14) Northwestern vs (4) Ohio State Odds
Opening line
Ohio State -20.5, Over/Under 58.5

Why the line moved
FanDuel posted the Big Ten title game on Thursday, and it's bounced around a bit since then. Ohio State first moved to -21.5, then dipped to -19.5, and on Monday night, this line is back to the opener of -20.5. The Buckeyes are attracting 78 percent of early tickets and 89 percent of early dollars on the spread.

The total first ticked up to 59.5, then dialed down to 57.5, though tickets are 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over for this neutral-site game at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium.

(10) Oklahoma vs (6) Iowa State Odds
Opening line
Iowa State +4.5, Over/Under 59.5

Why the line moved
Oklahoma gets a shot at revenge in the Big 12 title game, having lost at Iowa State 37-30 on Oct. 3. FanDuel opened the Sooners -4.5 for the rematch, taking place Saturday at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. The line jumped to -6.5, then receded to -5.5, and as of Monday night, 53 percent of tickets are on Iowa State and 60 percent of money is on Oklahoma.

The total initially dipped two points to 57.5, and it's at 58.5 Monday night, with 88 percent of tickets/96 percent of cash on the Over.

(19) Louisiana at (12) Coastal Carolina Odds
Opening line
Coastal Carolina -3.5, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
Coastal Carolina opened -3.5 at FanDuel for the Sun Belt championship game and stuck at that number through Monday night, with the exception of 15 minutes Sunday at -4.5. Tickets and money are running 9/1-plus on the host Chanticleers. The total is up a point to 54.5, with practically all the early tickets and money on the Over.

(3) Clemson vs (2) Notre Dame Odds
Opening line
Notre Dame +7.5, Over/Under 61.5

Why the line moved
On Nov. 7, Notre Dame beat visiting Clemson 47-40 in overtime, but the Tigers didn't have star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, due to COVID. Lawrence is good to go for a neutral-site game in Charlotte, N.C., and Clemson rose up to -10.5 from a -7.5 opener at FanDuel and is currently -9.5. However, the Fighting Irish are attracting 69 percent of spread bets and 59 percent of spread money through Monday night.

The total fell from 61.5 to 60.5, though the Over is taking 85 percent of tickets and 78 percent of money.

(23) Tulsa at (9) Cincinnati Odds
Opening line
Cincinnati -14.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Host Cincinnati opened -14.5 in the American Athletic Conference title game, initially fell to -13.5, rose to -15.5 and is back at the opener of -14.5 Monday night at FanDuel. It's two-way action with a lean toward the Bearcats, who are landing 55 percent of tickets and 53 percent of cash through Monday night.

The total went from 46.5 to 47.5 and back to 46.5, though the ticket count is beyond 6/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.

(1) Alabama vs (7) Florida Odds
Opening line
Alabama -13.5, Over/Under 71.5

Why the line moved
A lot of the air went out of the balloon for the SEC championship game when Florida, a 23-point home chalk against LSU last weekend, lost outright 37-34. But the Gators can certainly give the College Football Playoff committee a headache with an upset of Alabama in Saturday's contest in Atlanta.

The Crimson Tide initially ticked up to -14 at FanDuel, dipped to -12.5, then rocketed up to -17.5, where the line is Monday night. However, FanDuel doesn't yet have betting splits available. The hefty total opened at 71.5, got to 74.5 and is 73.5 late Monday night.

Boise State vs (24) San Jose State Odds
Opening line
San Jose State +7.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
San Jose State is the home team for the Mountain West Conference championship game, but the game will be at a neutral site, because local COVID regulations won't allow the game to be played in San Jose, Calif. Rather, the game will be at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas.

Boise State is down a point to -6.5 at FanDuel, where through Monday night, San Jose State is drawing 51 percent of bets and 57 percent of dollar on the spread. The total is stable at 54.5 on what must be light early action, as practically all the tickets and dollars are on the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 16

this weekend’s best games
Saturday’s games
Washington State (1-2) @ Utah (2-2)
— Wazzu allowed 36.3 ppg in its three games.
— WSU won at Oregon St, lost to Oregon/USC.
— Wazzu lost 43-29 to Oregon, despite being +3 in turnovers.
— Coogs have 6 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— WSU has 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coogs have a freshman QB with three starts
— Wazzu is 11-7 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Utah won its last two games, scoring 30-38 points.
— Utes ran ball for 212 yards/game, in last three games.
— Utah has 4 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Utes have 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah’s new quarterback started 33 games at South Carolina.
— Utah is 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as home favorites, but 0-2 TY.

— Wazzu won four of last five series games.
— Coogs won three of last four visits to Salt Lake City.

Stanford (3-2) @ UCLA (3-3)
— Stanford’s last four games were decided by total of 12 points.
— Cardinal won last three games, after an 0-2 start.
— Cardinal has 9 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Stanford has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cardinal has a junior QB with 11 career starts.
— Stanford is 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— UCLA lost 43-38 to rival USC last week, blowing a 28-10 lead.
— Bruins allowed 18 or fewer points in its wins, 48-38-43 in losses.
— UCLA allowed 886 yards in its last two games.
— Bruins are 0-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— UCLA has 7 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Bruins have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.

— UCLA beat Stanford 34-16 LY, snapping an 11-game series skid.

Arizona State (1-2) @ Oregon State (2-4)
— Arizona State beat Arizona 70-7 LW, after losing its two games.
— ASU gained 928 yards in its last two games.
— Sun Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— ASU has 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sun Devils have a soph QB with 15 career starts.
— Under Edwards, ASU is 4-9 ATS as a favorite, 1-4 on road.

— Beavers’ last three losses are all by 6 or fewer points.
— Oregon State won its last two home games by total of 7 points.
— Beavers gave up 400+ total yards in all six games.
— OSU has 5 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Ducks have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Oregon State has a junior QB with seven starts.
— Beavers are 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 games as home dogs, but are 2-0 TY.

— Teams split last eight series games overall.
— Sun Devils lost six of last seven visits to Corvallis, losing 35-34 LY.

Northwestern (6-1) vs Ohio State (5-0) (@ Indianapolis)
— Northwestern gave up 20 or fewer points in all of its wins.
— Wildcats gained fewer than 300 yards in four of last six games.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Northwestern has 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Northwestern has a senior QB with 29 career starts.
— Wildcats were +8 in turnovers in first five games, are minus-4 in last two.
— Six of seven Northwestern games stayed under total.

— Ohio State scored 38+ points in all five of their games.
— Buckeyes ran ball for 307-322 yards in last two games.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— OSU has 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ohio State’s junior QB has started 18 games.
— Buckeyes won Big 14 title game the last three years.

— Ohio State won last eight series games (7-1 ATS)
— Buckeyes hammered Northwestern 52-3 last year.

Oklahoma (7-2) vs Iowa State (8-2) (@ Arlington, TX)
— Oklahoma won its last six games, scoring 53.0 ppg.
— Sooners scored 35-30 points in their two losses.
— Oklahoma hasn’t lost since the Iowa State game.
— Sooners have 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Oklahoma has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sooners have a freshman QB with 9 career starts.
— Oklahoma won the Big X title game the last three years.

— Cyclones are trying for first league title since 1912. Nineteen. twelve.
— Iowa State won eight of last nine games, scoring 40 ppg in last five.
— Cyclones won two games in Texas this year (TCU 37-34), Texas (23-20)
— Cyclones have 5 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— ISU has 33 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 31 starts.
— ISU is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games as an underdog.

— Iowa State beat Oklahoma 37-30 in Ames October 3; yardage was 417-414 ISU.
— Oklahoma won 15 of last 17 series games; teams split last four meetings.

Louisiana (9-1) @ Coastal Carolina (10-0)
— Louisiana won its last six games, scoring 38.2 ppg.
— ULL’s only loss was 30-27 at home to Coastal October 14.
— Cajuns won all six road games, also scoring 38.2 ppg.
— Cajuns have 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Louisiana has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cajuns have a senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Louisiana is 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.

— Coastal won its last two games by total of nine points.
— Chanticleers ran ball for 236+ yards in four of last six games.
— Coastal has 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Chanticleers have 109 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coastal’s freshman QB has 23 TD passes, two INTs.
— Chanticleers are 7-0 ATS in games with a single digit spread.

— Chanticleers won 30-27 at ULL October 14 (yardage 414-413 CC).
— Road team won all three series games.
— Ragin’ Cajuns won 30-28 in last visit here, in 2018.

Clemson (9-1) vs Notre Dame (10-0) (@ Charlotte)
— Clemson won its last two games, scoring 52-45 points.
— Clemson scored 48.8 ppg in its four road games.
— Tigers threw ball for 439/436 yards in last two games.
— Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Tigers have 17 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Clemson’s junior QB has made 34 starts.
— Tigers won ACC title game last five years, scoring 45.8 ppg.

— Notre Dame won its first ten games (5-5 ATS)
— ND ran for 209+ yards in seven of last nine games.
— Notre Dame has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Notre Dame has 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame’s senior QB has made 33 career starts.
— Notre Dame is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog.

— Notre Dame upset Clemson 47-40 November 7; Lawrence didn’t play.
— Clemson won two of last three series games (won 30-3/24-22).

Tulsa (6-1) @ Cincinnati (7-0)
— Tulsa won its last six games, after a 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State.
— Golden Hurricane scored 31.2 ppg in its six wins.
— Golden Hurricane has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Tulsa has 65 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulsa’s senior QB has 29 career starts.
— Tulsa covered nine of its last ten road games.
— Three of their last four wins were by 6 or fewer points.

— Cincinnati is 7-0 vs I-A teams, with six of seven wins by 14+ points.
— Bearcats threw ball for 692 yards in their last two games.
— Bearcats have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Cincinnati has 52 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cincy’s junior QB has 33 career starts.
— Cincinnati is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as home favorites.

— Cincinnati won three of four series games, winning 24-13 LY.
— Home side won all four series games.

Alabama (10-0) vs Florida (8-2) (@ Atlanta)
— Closest game Alabama played this year was a 41-24 win over Georgia.
— Alabama gave up 7.2 ppg in last five games.
— Crimson Tide has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Alabama has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bama’s junior QB has made 13 starts.
— Alabama didn’t play in SEC title game LY; they won three of last four appearances in this game.

— Florida lost 37-34 to LSU last week, snapping a 6-game win streak.
— Gators’ losses were both by a FG, giving up 41-37 points.
— Florida threw ball for 312+ yards in their last eight games.
— Gators have 6 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Florida has 89 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Gators have a senior QB who has started 20 games.
— Under Mullen, Florida is 3-1 ATS as an SEC underdog.

— Alabama won last series game, 54-13 in SEC title tilt four years ago.

San Jose State (6-0) vs Boise State (5-1) (@ Las Vegas)
— San Jose is 6-0 for the first time since 1955.
— Spartans are 2-0 away from home, winning 28-17/35-24.
— Spartans have 6 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— San Jose has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 16 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— San Jose is 15-6 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog, 3-0 TY.

— Boise State scored 40+ points in four of its five wins.
— Broncos are minus-5 in turnovers in their last four games.
— Boise has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Broncos have 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has a soph QB with 12 career starts.
— Boise State is 2-1 in this game last three years, scoring 21.3 ppg.
— Five of seven Boise games stayed under the total.

— Boise State won last 13 series games; San Jose covered last two.

Ole Miss (4-4)
— Ole Miss won its last three games, scoring 48 ppg.
— Rebels allowed 31+ points in six of their eight games.
— Ole Miss has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rebels have 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ole Miss’s sophomore QB is making his 13th career start.
— Rebels are 1-5 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.

LSU (4-5)
— LSU sis having a bad year, but they did upset Florida last week.
— Tigers gave up 44+ points in four of their five losses.
— LSU has 3 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Tigers have 43 returning starts on the offensive line.
— LSU has a freshman QB with two career starts (Brad Johnson’s son).
— Tigers covered last five games as a home underdog.
— LSU’s defense gave up 650-609 yards the last two games.

— LSU won last four series games, scoring 45.3 ppg.
— Rebels lost their last five visits to Baton Rouge (2-3 ATS)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Jackpot Hi-5 Analysis December 19, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, as is customary at this time of the year, there is a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 at Woodbine Mohawk Park. The carryover stands at $335,940.32 and the actions starts in Race 11. The pool could grow into seven figures and it appears to be a competitive race.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 Jackpot Hi-5 Mandatory Payout-Carryover $335,940

1-Dreamy Fella (15-1)-Steps-up and although a picture is doubtful could hang around to get a piece of the Hi-5 at a decent price.

2-Mach Code (10-1)-Scott Young is the usual pilot and he is back between the pipes. Appeared to be on the muscle in last but when pulled near the half couldn't clear the eventual winner. My guess is Young leaves and could get the top, best to not overlook chances of being in the hunt at the wire.

3-Rootin Tootin (9/2)-Missed almost a month from 10/31-11/27, this will be 3rd time McClure takes the lines and the 4th start in sequence. Broke poorly in last, was caught on the rail and couldn't close quick enough to hit the board. Looking for an aggressive steer and could use a well-timed move to be first to cross the line. Taking a swing for a square price in race without a true standout.

4-Heavenly Sound (6-1)-Record this year is 1-21 and this is only the 2nd start since 10/25. Has the speed to hit the ticket if dialed on high but would like to see that type of effort first. Only 2-47 the past 2 years and doesn't interest me much at the morning line price.

5-Rockin In Heaven (3-1)-Disappointed in the NW3KL5 as in even money chalk and couldn't seal the deal. The trip was taxing but the fractions were not lively and at 3-1 this tepid program chalk doesn't excite me. Will look to others at the top of the ticket. Eight-year-old has banked over $951,000 and the back-class players will be using and maybe keying.

6-Tigers Way (8-1)-Tiger is 0-20 this year and 3-45 since 2019. But should fit with this crew and can close to hit the ticket with an alert start. JMac has steered before and should be able to push the button down the lane.

7-Sams A Champ A )7/2)-Shows a win at this level back on 10/31 and has been 0-5 since, while taking on better. Roy is in the bike tonight and he might wake-up this 8-year-old. This is a spot to shine but needs a favorable trip.

8-Dreamfair Moxy (4-1)-Drops and has been noticeable at this level in the past but is camera shy and is only 2-25 this year. Cullen may be forced to leave and that might work for hitting the Hi-5. But at the 4-1 morning line this 4-year-old won't be used at the very top of my ticket.

9-Osborne Seelster (15-1)-Loses McNair to #11 and at this level has trouble cashing checks, so will toss.

10-Casimir Richie P (15-1)-Makes 3rd start off the bench and is stuck with post 10 for two consecutive races. Would need a few breaks to win but Henry can find a way to get into the top 5 and should be a nice price. Has hit the board in 28 of 51 Wbsb starts with 11 wins.

11-American Virgin (8-1)-McNair sticks with this Moreau 8-year-old and like #10 would need some pixie dust to win. But could be part of the Pick 5 payout and at a solid price.

0.20 Super Hi-5

3/6,7/2,5,6,7,8,10,11/1,2,5,6,7,8,10,11/1,2,5,6,7,8,10,11
Total Bet=$72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/19/20 December 19, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, December 19, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Rey de Ligas; 5-Call Bros; 9-Big Perm

Forecast: The opener is a grass grab bag for maiden $20,000 older horses competing over seven and one-half furlongs. Anything can happen. Rey de Ligas has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and earned a good figure when fourth after a slow start in a recent five furlong dash. Wheeled back off short rest (10 days), the Chilean-bred gelding has room for further improvement, switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider E. Zayas and rates a very slight edge on top at 9/2 on the morning line. Call Bros, runner-up in a slightly lesser race at this trip at GPW last month, is unplaced in four starts over the local lawn but should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position and have every chance in a weak affair. Big Perm earned a career-top number – one that equals par for this level – when third in a race two weeks ago. If he can build on that effort today he’ll be right there. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you find the need to include more, go right ahead.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:34 ET Grade: C
Use: 3-Ms Big Spring; 4-Say Adios

Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $6,250 sprint for fillies and mares came up woefully light. We’ll use two but not with any degree of conviction. Ms Big Spring, the 8/5 morning line favorite, drops sharply in class and may have found her friends. Back to dirt and at her preferred track, the D. Fawkes-trained filly is a two-time winner at Gulfstream Park and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-prompting trip. That said, she’s hardly one to trust at a short price. Say Adios drops a notch on the class ladder, and though beaten as the favorite in her last pair must be considered a contender by default. She projects as the controlling speed and given that type of trip could take this field a long way.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:03 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Cobb; 4-Exxtop

Forecast: Modest maiden-claiming juveniles sprint six furlongs in the third race, a shallow affair that has two main players. Exxtop, runner-up against similar competition in his last pair, has speed figures that are par for this $16,000 level and looks ready to graduate, though his failure as a short priced favorite in both of those races is a reason for concern. Perhaps the switch to L. Saez will make the winning difference, Cobb is a seven-race maiden but drops to his lowest level ever and makes a favorable barn switch to J. Delgado. He’s a fit on numbers, switches to I. Ortiz, and is the likely choice and one to beat.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:32 ET Grade: C
Use: 6-Happy Champ; 7-Houdini’s Awesome; 8-Mista Donzella

Forecast: Here’s another maiden-claiming mess, this one over a mile on grass for 2-year-olds in for $25,000. Best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to. Houdini’s Awesome may be as good as any. The T. Pletcher-trained colt received no wagering action and was well-beaten in his debut vs. infinitely-tougher straight maiden foes at Belmont Park in October, but he did make some minor headway late to indicate he may have at least a smidgen of ability. Happy Champ is another making the maiden-to-maiden claiming class drop while stretching out again and switching to grass in his first start for a tag, so the son of Runhappy certainly has a right to improve, especially if he can secure a front-running trip. Mista Donzella, a second-time starter and likely to improve with this class drop from the maiden $40,000 level, is fairly competitive on speed figures and is worth tossing in somewhere at 12-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Texas Reward; 4-She’s Classy; 8-Include the Beast

Forecast: After a promising runner-up effort in the mud in her debut, Texas Reward crushed a maiden $15,000 field by 14 lengths over a sloppy track at Delaware Park in late September and returns in a realistic spot to face $25,000 claimers over six furlongs. It’ll be interesting to see how she performs on dry land for the first time, but if the daughter of Texas Red can repeat her last race under these conditions she should be capable of scoring again. Include the Beast was a debut winner at GPW in October while earning a speed figure that makes her dangerous despite the class hike. Drawn comfortably outside, the D. Fawkes-trained filly should draft into a cozy stalking spot and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. She’s Classy is the quickest in the field, though her stamina is suspect. She’ll take them as far as she can.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:40 ET Grade: C+
Use: 5-Dillon Rocks; 10-Conforto

Forecast: Conforto drops sharply in class but remains above his claim level, so the M. Maker-trained gelding should be capable of regaining his winning form in his first start since shipping back to South Florida from New York. A perfect one-for-one over the local lawn and with I. Ortiz, Jr. picking up the mount, he’s the logical top pick, but because he must leave from the 10-hole at this seven and one-half furlong distance there probably won’t be a lot of wagering value to be found unless he drifts a bit from his 2-1 morning line. Dillon Rocks is the barn’s “other” entrant and must be given a decent look as well. Both of his career victories (from 21 starts) were earned over the Gulfstream Park grass course and if gets the patient ride he apparently prefers the son of Paynter could spring a mild surprise at 5-1 on the morning line. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but, typical of this type of race, you may choose to toss in a few more.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:08 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Doll Collection; 7-Gerri B

Forecast: Doll Collection has good form over the local main track (a win and two seconds in three career starts), removes blinkers, and shows a bullet five furlong drill (:59 3/5, fastest of 16) earlier this month to indicate she’s spot on in her first outing since mid-September. The R. Nicks-trained daughter of Tapit probably will settle into a second flight, stalking position and then be asked for her best from the quarter pole home. Churchill Downs invader Gerri B turns back from a mile, has speed figures that fit, and may have a bit of improvement in her, having had just five prior outings. She, too, has been impressive in the a.m. of late, as indicated by a bullet half mile drill (:48 flat, fastest of 21) at Palm Meadows 10 days ago. We’ll give Doll Collection a very slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 3:38 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Greyes Creek; 7-Grand Journey; 12-Succeedandsurpass

Forecast: This second-level allowance middle distance turf event for older horses appears to be a stronger-than-par race for the level. There are at least three legitimate contenders, and maybe even a couple more, so we’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play and then press a bit keying top selection Greyes Creek on top. The 4-year-old son of Pioneerof the Nile originally brought $850,000 in the 2018 OBS March Sale and makes his first start since July; if he returns as well as he left he should have every chance to extend his winning streak to three. A smart maiden winner two runs back at Churchill Downs and then a winner of a first-level allowance affair with an impressive turn of foot against slow fractions, the C. Brown-trained four-year-old retains “win rider” T. Gaffalione, lands the good rail, and shows a couple of nice, easy breezes at Palm Meadows since shipping in from Kentucky. Grand Journey is a tough-as-nails gelding from the M. Maker barn with an impressive local record (six wins from 11 starts) and, like our top pick, is rested and ready after a three month vacation. The veteran son of Giant’s Causeway will be running on strongly late. Successandsurpass won a nice allowance race at Woodbine last month and lands I. Ortiz, Jr. He’s drawn a bit farther out than we’d prefer but if the G. Motion-trained colt can work out a decent trip the Grade-2 placed colt certainly can act in this league.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 4:12 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Traipsing; 3-Court Return; 8-Always Shopping

Forecast: Traipsing catches a field with very little pace in it and most likely will be handed the role as the controlling speed if she wants it. Tagged late when second in the mini-marathon Long Island S.-G3 at Aqueduct last month, she shortens to a mile and three-sixteenths today and should be tough on the front end, though she’s won from off the pace as well. Always Shopping went down by a short head in the 12-furlong Dowager S.-G3 at Keeneland two months ago and has proven to be equally effective at a middle distance. She also has winning form over the local lawn, switches to I. Ortiz, J., and is the likely choice and one to beat. Court Return missed by a neck at 41-1 in the E. P. Taylor S.-G1 at Woodbine in October and if she can duplicate that type of performance here she’ll be tough, for sure. However, she’s a one-paced closer and will need some help up front to be effective.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Haikal; 7-Diamond Oops; 9-Firenze Fire

Forecast: Diamonds Oops loves the Gulfstream Park main track (five wins in eight starts) and returns to his proper level after finishing a respectable sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1. The defending Mr. Prospector S.-G3 champion, the P. Biancone-trained gelding has the proper style for this seven furlong trip, shows a pair of recent bullet workouts, and is reunited with J. Leparoux, who was aboard in last year’s victory. Firenze Fire always is tough when he brings his best stuff and is a major player after finishing an excellent third in the B.C. Sprint-G1 last month. This will be his first ever start at Gulfstream Park, but the winner of 12 career starts has proven to be tough anywhere he goes. Haikal is intriguing in his first start since February and his first since joining the T. Pletcher barn. A prototype late-running sprinter, the lightly-raced 4-year-old has been impressive in recent works at Palm Beach Downs and this Grade-3 winner rates a legitimate look at 6-1 on the morning line.
*
*
Race 11: Post Time: 5:11 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Girl Dad; 5-Ultimate Gift, 11-Munqad

Forecast: This maiden two-turner on grass for 2-year-olds came up surprisingly light in terms of quality, so let’s look at what we think is the most dangerous newcomer and also include the two best experienced runners. Ultimate Gift debuts for T. Pletcher (a strong 21% with this angle), and while his workout clockings at Palm Beach Down don’t jump off the page this son of Pioneerof the Nile has been given a solid foundation and should be fit enough to be a contender in an open fray. Pletcher’s other starter, Munqad, is hung way outside in the 11-hole but could improve - as many of the offspring of War Front do - in his first start on grass. He was fourth while on the pace in a two-turn maiden affair at Keeneland last time out in October and may be patiently handled today. New York shipper Girl Day is modest on figures but should get plenty of play after flashing enough improvement to wind up second at the Big A on grass last month. The G. Weaver-trained gelding lands the rail and seems likely to try gate-to-wire tactics.
*
*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, December 19: Eddie Olczyk's Spot Plays December 18, 2020
Let’s hope this week is better than the last set of spot plays, which were awful by me. But that’s horse racing. Keep swinging! I’ve got another trio of price shots for Saturday spread across the afternoon hours on the east coast.

AQUEDUCT // RACE 3 (12:50PM ET) // STARTER ALLOWANCE // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#5 MISS CHARISMA (10/1 ML)

Well-traveled filly showed speed-and-fade in her last start at Laurel. Should look to make one run into a speedy race after showing a late kick in her 3 prior starts.


GULFSTREAM PARK // RACE 6 (2:40PM ET) // CLAIMING // 7 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)
#3 AYCAPOTE (10/1ML)

While he’s 0-for-1 on turf, he had a bad post in that try. Mother Dance Away Capote was a Grade 3 winner on grass. He has tactical speed, comes in off a win against softer, and is the play in a wide-open race.


GULFSTREAM PARK // RACE 10 (4:43PM ET) //G3 MR. PROSPECTOR STAKES // 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#1 LASTING LEGACY (15/1 ML)

Price will be right on a 6-year-old who has had excuses in his last 2 starts at Keeneland. Draw lines through a bad post in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and the race prior when he did not have a great start and got an awful ride from Gabe Saez.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream Park December 17, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 3 $100,000 MR. PROSPECTOR STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, December 19, 2020

The Lead:
A dozen sprinters answer last call in their division Saturday at Gulfstream Park with the Grade 3 $100,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes. The 7-furlong affair features a 1-2 re-match from last year's renewal, and will serve as 2020's final graded stakes race run at Gulfstream Park. The Mr. Prospector is named for the 1970s sprinter who would go on to become one of the most influential stallions of his time.

​Field Depth:
FIRENZE FIRE and MIND CONTROL both have been Grade 1 winners in previous seasons. DIAMOND OOPS and SLEEPY EYES TODD are Grade 2 winners, while Grade 3 victories have been achieved by COOL ARROW, HAIKAL and MAJESTIC DUNHILL. This is a strong group for the Grade 3 designation and horses like FIRENZE FIRE, MIND CONTROL and DIAMOND OOPS have kept stellar company lines. SLEEPY EYES TODD is right there in the discussion on class.

Pace:
It's difficult to envision a 12-runner graded stakes sprint at 7 furlongs without a strong pace, but who will be sent after this one early is not easily detected on paper. COOL ARROW has some early foot and drawn in post 2 may have to get involved. WIND OF CHANGE has 2-turn speed next door in post 3, similar to SLEEPY EYES TODD. ZENDEN would have been the logical pace player, but taking blinkers off (as he is) sometimes can dampen the early vigor. I don't see a deep, deep closer having success here; you'll want to be mid-pack or better.

Our Eyes:
It's hard to believe that neither FIRENZE FIRE or MIND CONTROL has ever started at Gulfstream. They've been mainstays on the east coast sprint scene with 47 efforts between them. They've combined for 19 wins and $3.2 million, though recent form leans to FIRENZE FIRE in a big way. His Vosburgh win and Breeders' Cup Sprint third in his last 2 has FIRENZE FIRE the horse to beat in the Mr. Prospector.

DIAMOND OOPS also exits the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he finished a length behind FIRENZE FIRE in sixth. It was a disappointing effort after he had won Keeneland's local prep in the Phoenix in promising fashion. DIAMOND OOPs is arguably in better form now than when he rallied from 4 lengths back to win this race last year at 7-2 odds. The same can't be said for last year's runner-up LASTING LEGACY, whose last 2 at Keeneland -- including a ninth-place run in the BC Sprint -- have not inspired. He's likely best as a closing sprinter over this 7-furlong trip, but the race shape and rail draw are tough for his style. Of the re-matched runners, my edge is with DIAMOND OOPS.

HAIKAL has been away since February's Gulfstream Mile and since changed barns to Todd Pletcher after the retirement of Kiaran McLaughlin. The workouts are positive for the 2019 Gotham winner, though his running style prior to this was to drop far back and make one run. That doesn't appear the best path in this one, but he may show more speed while fresh and after a new morning routine.

SLEEPY EYES TODD made his money routing on bullring tracks at Fonner and Charles Town this season, but he showed sprint mettle when taking the Lafayette on the Breeders' Cup undercard at Keeneland. They went super-fast that day to help his cause; don't expect him that far back against this group. He should contend if he handles the surface.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: Defending champ DIAMOND OOPS is classy and 8: 5-1-0 at Gulfstream on dirt.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: COOL ARROW is 4-for-7 at Gulfstream, and while a tad short on class against some of these, should make them sweat at some point in upper stretch while forwardly placed. The 7-furlong trip might be a tad longer than his best, but you can see him hanging on for a share of the superfecta.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $100 win DIAMOND OOPS, looking for something around 5-2 odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#6 Girls Love Me
Forward player can get the jump on the chalk and the other serious threats in a race without much early speed. He should be in the mix from the start with these.


#1 Nomo Ron
Finisher is in really good form right now and is clearly the one to beat, but he gives away a tactical edge to the top choice and will be a much shorter price.


#4 Baptize the Boy
Seems most likely underneath with these, but his tactical pace gives him a chance to trip out from close range. I'd want better than the 3/1 ML to see if everything works out in his favor.


Race Summary
Girls Love Me should be able to get a big head start on Nomo Ron given a likely soft race shape up front, and that may allow him to turn the tables from their last encounter in October.


Laurel Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#7 Charm City Band
Tactical player brings another bullet work in advance of this, and he'll get the right kind of spying trip from a few lengths off the pace. Not sure his ceiling is quite high enough yet, but the price will be right to find out.


#8 Redeem Eddie
Looks like the one to beat off the good run when adding blinkers again last out, and he should be in line for a perfect pressing trip.


#10 Odds On
That last one was a really nice effort on the hike for the new barn, and this is another step up today. A repeat of his last makes him tough, but demand a fair price.


Race Summary
Charm City Band has to turn the tables on Redeem Eddie from their last meeting, but the price should be fair enough, and the likely chalk has never backed up a big race.


Laurel Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Frank'sgunisloaded
He fired a bullet work since that 'comeback' effort where he walked out of the gate and took a mild left turn, never participating in the running. Assuming he can get out of the gate today, his back form makes him a big threat here.


#5 Karan's Notion
Tough to argue with much of anything he's been doing lately, and he's likely to flash that sharp speed again and dare the rest of these to come and get him.


#7 Xy Speed
Moves into the Asmussen barn out of the disgraced Navarro operation, and it seems like at least a mildly positive sign that they step him up in class and protect him when he was in for just $16,000 three starts ago.


Race Summary
Frank'sgunisloaded didn't feel like running last out, but the hope is that he'll bring a bit more enthusiasm today with a bullet work since that trip to post. Karan's Notion is the one to beat, and I'd want Xy Speed on my tickets, too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Meadowlands - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#8 ACTING OUT
Won in same spot two back, could duplicate trip.


#4 SHATTERED GLASS
Rallied fastest and widest to finish second to top one.


#1 KEYSTONE HONOR
Good form at half-mile ovals, has speed and the rail.


Race Summary
Acting Out chased the loose leader, pulled from the pocket and prevailed under similar conditions two back. He draws post 8 but could salvage forward position early in this field. Play 8-1 and 8-4 exactas.


Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#2 AINTNOBETTOR A
Taken to upset off race two back with better starting spot.


#1 EAST END
Ran 1-2-3 ascending class ranks to join $500,000 Club.


#7 NOCTURNAL BLUEHIP
Consistent, projects ideal trip, offers value.


Race Summary
Aintnobettor A can be excused for second-tier assignment last week. He closed with a mid-track flourish the week prior to win and gets ample pace flow to spring another upset.


Northfield Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#3 MCMAEDLE
Slowed by traffic on turn, game finish on rail, price shot on class drop.


#7 DANCETOIMPRESS
Seeks third win in a row to close 3yo season, switches pilots.


#9 PARTY BELLE
Rallied for two wins, a second a third in last six starts, claimed by Rhoades.


Race Summary
McMaedle is 1-34 this year, but she gets class relief off a willing try in the slop. She was blocked in an attempt to get off the rail mid-turn stayed on well. Play a 3-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Scraps
Ran a bang-up third in the Million Preview at GP West last out and does his best running over this course; won three of four in one stretch here last year and has a solid closing move.


#4 Kingmeister
Has speed and was third in his only turf try; couldn't keep up with sizzling fractions that day but normally shows speed. A speed threat with Saez aboard.


#7 Grand Journey
Never got involved whatsoever at Kentucky Downs last time, but that sometimes happens to the best of them over that course; has good form other than that one and makes his third for Maker.


Race Summary
Scraps will be far off a good pace here and will probably be rolling late under Lopez, who picks up the mount.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#3 Court Return
Had an explosive run last and just missed by a neck in the G1 EP Taylor at Woodbine last out; her career really turned around win a maiden-claiming win in her ninth career start. She followed with a stakes win and was third in the G2 Canadian prior to the Taylor performance. She absolutely is a router and will love the distance.


#8 Always Shopping
Has improved with distance and lost a photo in the G3 Dowager at Keeneland last out; likely to keep close to the lead and can dig in when asked.


#9 Great Island
Won two straight at Churchill and Keeneland and this distance should not present serious problems.


Race Summary
Court Return is as improved as any turf horse you'll find, and the 1 3-16th miles of this one plays right into her wheelhouse.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#8 Sleepy Eyes Todd
Made a remarkable run through the field and finished strongly inside for the win in the Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland. Won the G2 Charles Town Classic with the longest winning margin in race history (7 1-4 lengths), cruised in the Bosselman Gus Fonner and was a bang-up second in the Lone Star Mile. The move to today's distance of seven furlongs occurred last time out signaled that this gives him a great chance to run well anywhere.


#9 Firenze Fire
Ran a strong closing third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint and has rarely, if ever, been in better form.


#7 Diamond Oops
Didn't have the best trip when he was sixth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint and prior to that won the G2 Phoenix at Keeneland and G2 Turf Sprint at Churchill. Can get back to good form.


Race Summary
Sleepy Eyes Todd tired in the G1 Awesome Again against Improbable and Maximum Security and came out of that for a huge effort at Keeneland. He's come along nicely for trainer Miguel Silva and likely will have a good finish to an outstanding year for him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy - NCAAF - Sat, Dec 19 at 12:00 PM
Sean Murphy's Saturday CFB Winner

Texas A&M vs Tennessee

Texas A&M -14 (-103) (BetAnySports)

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Tennessee at 12 noon et on Saturday.



I'll lay the points with Texas A&M on Saturday afternoon as it remains one of the most underrated teams in the country - at least from a betting perspective (it is certainly being given plenty of respect in the national polls). The Aggies have won five straight games by double-digits and although it is Senior Day, they're catching the Vols in a letdown spot here after Tennessee won for the first time in eight games last week against still-winless Vanderbilt. Aggies QB Kellen Mond has thrown nine touchdowns without tossing a single interception over the last four games. He also ran for a season-high 60 yards and a score last time out against Auburn. The Vols just haven't been able to find any consistency since winning their first two games this season. I think it's only a matter of time before the Aggies pull away for good in this contest. Take Texas A&M (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root - NCAAB - Sat, Dec 19 at 2:00 PM
Take North Carolina

North Carolina vs Kentucky

North Carolina -3.5 (-110) (BetOnline)

Kentucky takes on No. 21 North Carolina from Cleveland in a battle of traditional powers at the CBS Sports Classic. Kentucky was a top-20 team to start the season, but with five new starters, John Calipari knew things might not go so smoothly. These two teams have similar issues, but Kentucky has one more problem than North Carolina. Well, make that two since they are on a four-game losing streak. UNC has the size to match up with Saar and should neutralize the Wildcats on the boards. Right now, the Tar Heels are the better team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sports (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/power-sports) - NCAAF - Sat, Dec 19 at 3:00 PM
POWER'S FREE AIR FORCE-ARMY WINNER Air Force vs Army
Army +2.5 (-103) (BetOnline (https://record.commissionkings.ag/_mflJQWEiC-BqkvbhkiKqDGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/))

1* Army (3:00 ET) - Don't understand this line, other than Army is off the Navy game (they won 15-0) while Air Force is off a bye. But as we've seen throughout 2020, these bye weeks aren't always a positive thing. Army is the better team here, and playing at home where they're 7-0 SU this season (5-2 ATS). Air Force's win over Navy was much larger than 15-0, but that game wasn't played in poor weather conditions like the Army-Navy game was. The Black Knights shouldn't be getting points here. C-in-C Trophy heads back to West Point. 1* Army

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 4

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) (.50 Cent Minimum)



Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 56 • Purse: $16,575 • Post: 8:31P


FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $15,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CREDIT CARD FRAUD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CREDIT CARD FRAUD: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the d istance/surface. SATIN FINISH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EXCETERA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in a verage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



3

CREDIT CARD FRAUD

3/1


7/2




6

SATIN FINISH

9/2


5/1




5

EXCETERA

4/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

CREDIT CARD FRAUD

3


3/1

Front-runner

66


57


59.0


49.8


45.8




6

SATIN FINISH

6


9/2

Front-runner

55


52


46.5


49.3


44.3




5

EXCETERA

5


4/1

Front-runner

59


47


43.7


44.7


37.7




2

SWEET SMOKIN GAL

2


8/1

Stalker

50


45


49.5


42.8


32.3




4

EURO BELLE

4


7/2

Trailer

59


51


48.3


48.3


44.3




7

GOSPEL TIZ JOY

7


5/1

Trailer

48


42


13.3


39.8


27.3




1

TRULY CLASSIC

1


20/1

Trailer

49


28


4.0


26.8


13.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)



Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 3-4-5)



Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $42,000 • Post: 12:58


FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. GALLANT GUY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GALLANT GUY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GORDY'S BOY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



7

GALLANT GUY

6/1


3/2




8

GORDY'S BOY

7/2


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

GALLANT GUY

6


6/1

Front-runner

74


67


66.8


63.9


60.4




5

PROUD MUSKET

4


20/1

Alternator/Front-runner

88


38


34.4


31.5


26.0




8

GORDY'S BOY

7


7/2

Trailer

90


82


0.0


28.4


25.4























Unknown Running Style: VA VA VEGAS (5/2) [Jockey: Van Dyke Drayden - Trainer: Baffert Bob], BRAVESTONE (20/1) [Jockey: Payeras Edgar - Trainer: Rosales Richard], PLAYING HARDBALL (6/1) [Jockey: Cedillo Abel - Trainer: Bonde Jeff], RUN KING STUD RUN (

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Turfway Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:44pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 OAK ROOM (ML=7/5)


OAK ROOM - Maker drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping data to think this thoroughbred should have a chance to win at this level. This equine is number one in (EPS) earnings per start. He looks good in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KOBE BEACH (ML=5/1), #6 STRIKE NOW (ML=5/1), #8 DETECTIVE (ML=6/1),

KOBE BEACH - Can't bet on this pony in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event recently. This animal didn't show any early speed in the last event. Now he is trying a sprint. Tough chance at the shorter distance. This colt recorded a speed rating in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race. STRIKE NOW - I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with morning line odds of 5/1. DETECTIVE - Can't wager on this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint event recently. Poor early position in the early stages of the last route event will probably make it tough to make an impact today in this sprint race. Somewhat easily forgotten speed fig in the last race at Churchill Downs at 1 1/16 miles. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's event.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #1 OAK ROOM on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with 6



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds


12/19/20, FG, Race 13, 5.50 CT
12/19/20,FG,13,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:42:00 STAKES. Tenacious Stakes. Purse $75,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Free nomination by Saturday, December 5. $375 to enter; $375 additional to start. Supplemental nominations of $1,500 will be accepted at time of entry which shall include all fees. $75,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 4% to fourth, 2% to fifth and 1% to finishers sixth through ninth. Any unpaid purse monies will revert to the winner. Weights: Three Year Old - 121 lbs; Older - 124 lbs. Non-winners of $65,000 at a mile or over since October 19 allowed 2 lbs, $55,000 at a mile or over since September 19 allowed 4 lbs, $45,000 at a mile or over since then allowed 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. The Tenacious Stakes will be limited to fourteen (14) starters. Preference will be given in the following manner: graded or group winners in order (I, II, III), then highest lifetime earnings. Any horse excluded from running because of the aforementioned preference shall be refunded the entry fee or supplementary nomination fee if applicable. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Nominations Closed Saturday, December 5, 2020 with 22.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
6
Maxfield
8/5
Geroux F
Walsh Brendan P.
FEC
632
31.80
1.13/$1


099.3536
5
Sonneman
3/1
Santana. Jr. R
Asmussen Steven M.


632
31.80
1.13/$1


098.1472
4
Mocito Rojo
8/1
Gilligan J
Wilson Shane
T
632
31.80
1.13/$1


097.4875
3
Captivating Moon
9/2
Hernandez. Jr. B J
Block Chris M.
W
632
31.80
1.13/$1


097.0991
2
Locally Owned
5/1
Mena M
Stall. Jr. Albert M.


632
31.80
1.13/$1


096.4761
7
Dinar
12/1
Bridgmohan S
DeVaux Cherie
JS
632
31.80
1.13/$1


095.4716
1
Cool Bobby
12/1
Graham J
DeVaux Cherie
L
626
32.43
1.12/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.75, ROI 0.95/$1
. . . .
100.0000 6 Maxfield
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]*NotActualPost1
*Scratches may change this condition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 1, 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF RACES ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 ROARING FORK 2/1




# 7 LET ME RUN 9/2




# 2 COLOSAL 10/1




ROARING FORK is the best wager in this race. Could provide positive profits based on strong recent Speed Figures with an average of 75. Earned a formidable Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. Has a very strong shot here if you like back class. LET ME RUN - Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this animal look very good in this contest. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. COLOSAL - Ought to compete strongly in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. Should definitely be carefully examined in this event if only for the solid speed figure recorded in the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 77

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 HOUDINI'S AWESOME 7/2




# 2 EL AFORTUNADO 9/2




# 8 MISTA DONZELLA 12/1




My pick for this race is HOUDINI'S AWESOME. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group of horses in his last contest. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. Lopez has an excellent ROI over the past 30 days (+2) which should help players with this pick. EL AFORTUNADO - The speed figure of 71 from his last race looks decent in here. Earning some nice money in turf route events. MISTA DONZELLA - Could best this field here, showing respectable figures of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 NEXT MONDAY (ML=3/1)


NEXT MONDAY - This gelding is in good physical condition. Finished second on November 28th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 RECKLESSNESS (ML=7/2), #6 CLOUD TO GROUND (ML=4/1), #4 YOU'RE IN COREY (ML=5/1),

RECKLESSNESS - Will be tough for this mount to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. CLOUD TO GROUND - A pattern of declining speed ratings 78/75/45 for this pony. You believe this animal is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't win often. Could be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list. YOU'RE IN COREY - Will not be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 NEXT MONDAY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

5 with 8



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, December 19

Butler vs Indiana
Butler (1-1)
— ranked #64 by KenPom
— Tempo: #292
— Experience: #224
— Continuity: #239
— Butler beat Western Michigan by 4, lost by 19 at Villanova.
— There were three weeks between the two games.
— Butler’s two opponents made 19-41 on arc (46.3%).

Indiana (4-2)
— ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #235
— Experience: #283
— Continuity: #85
— Hoosiers split their four top 100 games.
— Indiana has #18 eFG% defense in country.
— Hoosiers start conference play Wednesday vs Northwestern.

— These teams split last four meetings, played every other year.

Gonzaga vs Iowa (@ Sioux Falls, SD)
Gonzaga (3-0)
— ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #11
— Experience: #212
— Continuity: #158
— Zags haven’t played in 17 days.
— Gonzaga has beaten three top 75 teams, two top 10 teams.
— Zags are shooting 65.3% inside arc (#2).

Iowa (6-0)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #31
— Experience: #240
— Continuity: #56
— Iowa has two top 100 wins, but has played schedule #282.
— Hawkeyes score lot of points (100.7 ppg)
— Iowa beat North Carolina 93-80, Iowa State 105-77.

Louisville @ Wisconsin
Louisville (4-0)
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #280
— Experience: #314
— Continuity: #308
— Louisville hasn’t played in 18 days.
— Cardinals have top 100 wins over Seton Hall, Western Kentucky.
— This is a young team’s first game away from home.

Wisconsin (5-1)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #328
— Experience: #31
— Continuity: #20
— Badgers’ one loss was by hoop at Marquette.
— Wisconsin has top 100 wins over Rhode Island, Loyola Chi
— Badgers are making 39.7% of their 3’s (#28)

Wright State @ Detroit
Wright State (2-1)
— ranked #103 by KenPom
— Tempo: #84
— Experience: #276
— Continuity: #77
— Wright State won its first road game by 18 at Bowling Green.
— All three of their games were decided by 16+ points.
— Wright State won both its games vs teams outside top 100.

Detroit (1-3)
— ranked #199 by KenPom
— Tempo: #126
— Experience: #3
— Continuity: #234
— Two of Detroit’s three losses are to top 80 teams.
— Titans lost only home game, 80-66 to Kent State.
— Detroit it shooting only 28.9% of its 3’s (#255).

— Wright won last three series games, by 12-1-23 points.

Western Kentucky @ Alabama
Western Kentucky (5-2)
— ranked #81 by KenPom
— Tempo: #211
— Experience: #36
— Continuity: #101
— Hilltoppers’ two losses are to top 25 teams (West Va/Louisville)
— WKU has three top 100 wins (No Iowa, Memphis, Rhode Island)
— WKU’s opponents are shooting 44.7% on arc (#313).

Alabama (4-2)
— ranked #52 by KenPom
— Tempo: #23
— Experience: #82
— Continuity: #151
— Alabama split its four top 100 games, losing to Stanford, Clemson
— Crimson Tide scored 64-56 points in its losses, 80+ in its wins.
— Alabama takes 46.8% of its shots on arc, but is making only 29.7% (#240).

North Carolina vs Kentucky (@ Cleveland)
North Carolina (4-2)
— ranked #26 by KenPom
— Tempo: #92
— Experience: #305
— Continuity: #144
— UNC is 1-2 in top 100 games, losing 69-67 to Texas, 93-80 at Iowa.
— Tar Heels are turning ball over 22.8% of time (#267)
— Carolina’s best win is 67-63 over Stanford.

Kentucky (1-4)
— ranked #40 by KenPom
— Tempo: #176
— Experience: #320
— Continuity: #320
— Kentucky lost its last four games, all to top 80 teams.
— Wildcats are turning ball over 23.8% of time (#284)
— Kentucky is shooting 24.4% on arc (#296).

— Kentucky won last meeting 80-72, two years ago.

Ole Miss @ Dayton
Ole Miss (4-0)
— ranked #38 by KenPom
— Tempo: #250
— Experience: #90
— Continuity: #207
— Ole Miss is 4-0 vs schedule #292; Middle Tennessee was their one road game.
— Rebels are forcing turnovers 30.2% of time (#4).
— Ole Miss is shooting 24% on the arc (#301).

Dayton (3-1)
— ranked #61 by KenPom
— Tempo: #303
— Experience: #13
— Continuity: #156
— Dayton’s two top 100 games were decided by total of 5 points.
— Flyers are turning ball over 25.9% of time (#306)
— All three Dayton wins were by six or fewer points.

Purdue vs Notre Dame (@ Indianapolis)
Purdue (5-2)
— ranked #31 by KenPom
— Tempo: #266
— Experience: #303
— Continuity: #146
— Purdue is 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Clemson (81-70), Miami (58-54).
— Boilers beat Ohio State in their conference opener Wednesday.
— Purdue is turning ball over 22.6% of time (#258)

Notre Dame (2-3)
— ranked #78 by KenPom
— Tempo: #302
— Experience: #69
— Continuity: #11
— Notre Dame has played schedule #12 (four top 40 teams)
— ND lost its last game by 10 at home to Duke on Wednesday.
— Notre Dame is shooting 41.8% on the arc (#13).

— Notre Dame won last meeting 88-80, two years ago.

Baylor @ Kansas State
Baylor (4-0)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #252
— Experience: #105
— Continuity: #46
— Baylor hasn’t played a game in ten days.
— Bears have scored 90.8 ppg vs schedule #98
— Baylor is forcing turnovers 27.1% of time (#12)

Kansas State (3-4, 1-0)
— ranked #147 by KenPom
— Tempo: #345
— Experience: #307
— Continuity: #251
— K-State won its last two games, after a 1-4 start.
— Wildcats changed their lineup after losing to a D-II team.
— K-State’s defensive eFG% is #284 in country.

— Baylor beat K-State twice LY, by 19-6 points.

UCLA vs Ohio State (@ Cleveland)
UCLA (5-1)
— ranked #27 by KenPom
— Tempo: #344
— Experience: #192
— Continuity: #2
— Bruins won last five games after an opening loss at San Diego State.
— UCLA’s only top 100 win was by 9 over Marquette.
— Bruins’ defensive eFG% is #81 in country.

Ohio State (5-1)
— ranked #24 by KenPom
— Tempo: #318
— Experience: #89
— Continuity: #139
— Buckeyes just lost their Big 14 opener at Purdue.
— Ohio State has played schedule #218; their best win is over #78 Notre Dame.
— Buckeyes are forcing turnovers 22% of time (#81).

Colorado State @ Saint Mary’s
Colorado State (2-0)
— ranked #110 by KenPom
— Tempo: #147
— Experience: #298
— Continuity: #45
— CSU won its first D-I game by 39 over Northern Arizona.
— Rams start three sophs, two juniors (#298 experience)
— State is stepping up in class here; Gaels have already played 8 games.

Saint Mary’s (7-1)
— ranked #65 by KenPom
— Tempo: #353
— Experience: #256
— Continuity: #216
— Gaels won their last seven games, after an opening loss to Memphis.
— Saint Mary’s has top 100 wins over Northern Iowa, South Dakota State.
— Gaels get good shots; they’ve got #55 eFG% in country.

Cincinnati @ Georgia
Cincinnati (2-3)
— ranked #66 by KenPom
— Tempo: #155
— Experience: #173
— Continuity: #185
— Bearcats lost three of last four games; they’ve played schedule #56.
— Cincy’s only top 100 win was by 5 at home over Furman.
— Bearcats are shooting 26.9% on the arc (#277)

Georgia (5-0)
— ranked #93 by KenPom
— Tempo: #34
— Experience: #86
— Continuity: #247
— Dawgs have beaten four stiffs and #150 Montana.
— Georgia won its last game by 4, over #272 Samford
— Dawgs have forced turnovers 23.2% of time (#52)

Arizona vs Stanford (@ Santa Cruz, CA)
Arizona (5-0)
— ranked #44 by KenPom
— Tempo: #195
— Experience: #269
— Continuity: #303
— Arizona has played schedule #294; they’ve got lot of new players.
— This is Arizona’s first game away from home.
— Wildcats have #21 eFG% defense in country.

Stanford (3-2)
— ranked #33 by KenPom
— Tempo: #130
— Experience: #244
— Continuity: #29
— Cardinal has played schedule #55, losing to UNC (67-63), Indiana (79-63).
— Stanford’s only top 100 win was by 18 over Alabama.
— Cardinal is turning ball over 20.9% of the time (#219).

— Arizona won last 20 series games; their last loss to Stanford was 12 years ago.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

601INDIANA -602 BUTLER
INDIANA is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

603GONZAGA -604 IOWA
IOWA is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

607LOUISVILLE -608 WISCONSIN
LOUISVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

609UNC-GREENSBORO -610 ELON
UNC-GREENSBORO is 35-61 ATS (-32.1 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1997.

615WRIGHT ST -616 DETROIT
WRIGHT ST is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game in the last 3 seasons.

617VALPARAISO -618 TOLEDO
VALPARAISO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games since 1997.

621JAMES MADISON -622 E CAROLINA
JAMES MADISON is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

623WI-MILWAUKEE -624 WI-GREEN BAY
WI-GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a game committing 8 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

625HOFSTRA -626 ST BONAVENTURE
HOFSTRA is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 2 seasons.

627MARIST -628 MANHATTAN
MARIST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after a game with 9 or less assists in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Dec 19 '20, 4:08 PM in 10m
NCAA-F | Clemson vs Notre Dame
Play on: Notre Dame +10½ -109 at Draft Kings

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Notre Dame +10.5
It's true that Notre Dame has been notorious for failing in the biggest games in the past. But this 2020 team seems like they have the goods. They are 10-0 this season and their performances against both Clemson in the first meeting and also UNC recently show that they can handle the big stage. I think they prove that once again in the ACC Championship Game by giving the Tigers a run for their money as 10.5-point underdogs.
This line is simply out of whack. The Fighting Irish pulled the 47-40 upset as 5.5-point home dogs in the first meeting this season. They racked up 519 total yards on the Tigers and did whatever they wanted to against Clemson's defense. Now I get that Trevor Lawrence is back, as are a few more starters on defense that they didn't have in the first meeting. But this number has been adjusted too much for it with Clemson now being a double-digit favorite in the rematch.
Notre Dame has a chance to pull the upset again because they have a great running game, a great defense, and the best quarterback they've had in years in Ian Book. The Fighting Irish can maul Clemson and will have the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. They rush for 236 yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season. They rushed for 209 yards and 5.1 per carry in their first meeting with Clemson.
The Fighting Irish also have a tremendous run defense. They give up just 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They have held six of their last seven opponents to 96 or fewer rushing yards, including the 34 they allowed on 33 carries in their first meeting with the Tigers. Clemson has rushed for 147 or fewer yards in four of its last five games overall. And keep in mind Notre Dame held UNC's high-powered attack to just 17 points and 298 total yards. Nobody has been able to hold UNC in check like the Fighting Irish did a few weeks ago.
Book is completing 63.3% of his passes for 2,381 yards with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 465 yards and eight scores. He won't be intimidated by Clemson as he showed in the first meeting by making all the big plays down the stretch to win that game. And I trust him to take care of the football and make the right decisions to keep the Fighting Irish in this game for four quarters.
Notre Dame is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. good offensive teams that average 31 or more points per game. The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Dec 19 '20, 4:10 PM in 12m
Fighting | Christos Giagos vs Carlton Minus
Play on: Christos Giagos -315 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Christos Giagos -315

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard Dec 19 '20, 4:15 PM in 17m
NCAA-B | UCLA vs Ohio State
Play on: UCLA -1½ -108 at pinnacle

UCLA at Ohio State
Prefer the improving Bruins here who have run off five straight victories, after the season opening loss to San Diego State. UCLA has run off five straight games with ppp numbers over 106. Defensively the Bruins are getting better each and every game.
Ohio State is also 5-1, but the scoring has really subsided as of late because of injuries. The Buckeyes rank 273rd defending the three, which could be a big difference maker here.
PLAY UCLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan Dec 19 '20, 5:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Penn State
Play on: UNDER 53½ -111

Illinois vs. Penn State Under 53.5
Both teams have been a major disappointment this season. Illinois was expected to come in bad this year, but Penn State figured to be in the BCS Playoff talks. Neither team really wants this game and they've both been searching for the finish line. Expect a sluggish affair.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* Free CFB O/U Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Dec 19 '20, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Buffalo vs Syracuse
Play on: OVER 151½ -108

1 Dimer on Buffalo vs Syracuse over 151½ -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander Dec 19 '20, 7:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs UCLA
Play on: OVER 59 -112

1* CFB - Stanford/UCLA *FREE PICK* on OVER 59
The OVER has cashed in each of the last 3 meetings between these two Pac-12 rivals. The last time they played at UCLA in 2018, the two teams combined for 91 points with a similar total to what we see in this year's meeting of 60.5. I just think with the Pac-12 title game already being played last night, this just has more a feel of an exhibition than a conference game. I still expect both teams to come out ready to play, I just think both coaches are going to open up the playbooks. That's an every week deal for UCLA head coach Chip Kelly and he's got the Bruins looking more and more like one of his Oregon teams. UCLA is averaging over 200 yards both rushing and passing, have gained 6.1 yards/play and are scoring 33.5 ppg. In year's past Stanford has been all about the run game and defense, but they really don't have a running game and that's fine with Mills at QB. As for the defense, it's nothing like we are use to seeing, as they are giving up 430 ypg and 6.6 yards/play. Bet the OVER 59!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Dec 19 '20, 7:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs UCLA
Play on: Stanford +7 -110 at Mirage

Free Pick on Stanford

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Dec 19 '20, 7:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs UCLA
Play on: Stanford +7 -110 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Stanford +7 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Dec 19 '20, 7:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs UCLA
Play on: Stanford +7 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Stanford +7 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Dec 19 '20, 8:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Alabama vs Florida
Play on: OVER 74 -107

PICK - Florida/Alabama OVER 74
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 240
I'll take my chances with the OVER 74 in Saturday's SEC title game between Florida and Alabama. As big as this number is, I just don't feel like it's enough. The Crimson Tide have scored no fewer than 38 points in a game this season and that season-low was in their opener. There were only 3 other teams to hold them under 48 and those were all great defensive teams in Georgia, Mississippi State and Auburn.
Florida's recipe to win this game isn't to keep Alabama's offense in check. There only chance is to outscore them. Florida just doesn't have the guys on defense to keep this high-power Alabama offense from going up and down the field.
All you got to do is look at their two games against the two other best teams in the SEC this year, Texas A&M and Georgia. The Gators saw a combined 79 points in a 38-41 loss to the Aggies and 72 in a 44-28 win over the Bulldogs. Note that was before Georgia's offense took off with the insertion of Justin Fields at quarterback.
I know the Alabama defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in each of their 6 games, but they didn't really face any kind of offense that has the talent that Florida has. Those 6 games were against Mississippi State, Kentucky, Auburn, LSU and Arkansas. We saw Texas A&M score 24 on them earlier in the year and Ole Miss hung 48. Both teams torching the Alabama secondary for 330+ passing yards. If Florida can just get to 30 and I think they do, this thing should fly past the number. Give me the OVER 74!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Dec 19 '20, 10:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Arizona State vs Oregon State
Play on: Oregon State +7½ -110 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Oregon State +7½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Dec 19 '20, 10:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Arizona State vs Oregon State
Play on: Oregon State +7½ -110 at Mirage

1* on Oregon State +7½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart Dec 19 '20, 10:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Arizona State vs Oregon State
Play on: Oregon State +7½ -110 at Mirage

ASU just scored a 70-7 blowout win vs instate rivals Arizona last time out, and will now have problems replicating that much flow in back to back games. Note: The Sun devils are just 3-15 ATS L/18 after scoring 55 or more points in game. ASUs futility in followup games after a huge out put makes sense to me from a lines perspective as recency bias probavbly came into play as it is here today giving us value with a up-trending Oregon State as underdogs. I know OSU is expected to be without some key contributors, but Im betting on a team effort here from a hard working young group. ARIZONA ST is 2-11 ATS L/13 in road games off a double digit road victory. OREGON ST is 9-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. OREGON ST is 12-4 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Oregon State to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: Buffalo +11 over Syracuse

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist Jim Feist's Comp Pick, SATURDAY DECEMBER 19, 2020
12/19 05:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET

CF (239) ALABAMA VS (240) FLORIDA

Take: OVER

SEC Championship game from Atlanta, GA here on Saturday has No 1 Alabama taking on No 7 Florida. Alabama looks to keep its perfect record in tact here on a top seed in the NCAA playoffs on New Year's day. Florida lost a shocker last week to LSU at home. LSU has had a horrible season with multiple injuries and COVID tests, but somehow pulled the biggest upset of the season. The Crimson Tide are almost a perfect team, difficult to find any weakness on this club. With QB Mac Jones, RB Najee Harris and WR DaVonta Smith they have three legitimate Heisman candidates. Alabama has won all year and won BIG! They are sending a statement the the NCAA that they are the team to beat this year and I have to agree with that. Even with Florida's excellent QB in Trask, I look for Alabama to score a lot of points here on Saturday. That means Florida will have to keep place. Your free play is on the OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR LATE SATURDAY: SYRACUSE (Hoops) -13 over Buffalo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Late Saturday's Free Selection: Arizona/Stanford under 137 (NCAA Basketball)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins ROZ's SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2020
Free Pick
CBK : 646. Oregon -23 (12 PT / 3 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports
Late Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Illinois-Chicago Flames - 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Late Saturday's Free Play: Georgia Bulldogs + 2 (NCAA Basketball)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the Colorado St Rams +5½ over St Marys

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, December 19, 2020
CFB: 239. Alabama -17 (5 PT / 8 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday : Take ARIZONA ST (CFB) -7 over Oregon St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Saturday
Air Force -2' CFB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Late Saturday's Free Pick: St Mary's Gaels - 5 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play:
Texas AM -14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sat: CBB Syracuse -12 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Last Call Saturday's Late Free Play: Florida State Seminoles - 14 1/2 (College Basketball)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports FREE PICK 12/19 CBB GONZAGA -4 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Saturday: OHIO ST (CBB) -1 over UCLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Late Saturday: St Joseph's Hawks + 22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Saturday: Penn St -15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

I sat there and watched in amazement, the fine performance by UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but how the defense helped me cash my 2000♦ play on USC in Saturday's come-from-behind win and cover.

This week the Bruins are laying a big number to the Stanford Cardinal, and I'm not so sure they can cover - let alone win.

The Cardinal has won three straight on the road, and it has its own quarterback threat in Davis Mills, who has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 1,076 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Mills should be able to attack UCLA's seive-like secondary with a number of targets, including Simi Fehoko and Michael Wilson, who have combined for 615 receiving yards and one touchdown.

The balance with the rushing game is essential, and what could very well ruin UCLA's defensive effort, as Stanford is averaging 133.8 yards rushing per contest, led by Austin Jones with 458 yards and seven touchdowns.

I do think this could be a shootout, as Stanford's defense is a bit questionable, allowing 28.6 points and 429.8 yards per game. But the way the Bruins give up big plays and damn near as many points (27.8) as Stanford, they won't be able to cover by more than a touchdown.

This is another epic Pac 12 shootout. I'll take the road dog.

1* STANFORD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Welcome to a December Saturday night at Lambeau Field!

Going to be cold and some possible snow flurries in the forecast for tonight's Carolina-Green Bay game, but I don't feel the elements are going to keep this game from playing Over the total when it is all said and done.

Carolina is fresh off a 32-27 home loss on Sunday to Denver in a game that landed Over the total. That puts the Panthers at 2 in a row Over and 5 of their last 7 overall Over the posted price. In that stretch, ALL 3 of the Panthers road games have played Over and I like that streak to reach 4 straight Over the total on the road for the Panthers in this spot against the dangerous Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay scored 31 in their Sunday game at Detroit, but the total was NOT eclipsed thanks to a price tag of 55 1/2 points. Still, Matt LaFleur's team has played a modest 4 of their last 7 games Over the posted price this season.

Both teams defenses are a bit suspect - the Panthers allowing 25.5 points per game, the Packers at 24.8 points per game - so expect there to be points on the scoreboard this Saturday night.

This will be the 6th series meeting between the teams dating back to 2011 and while last year's showdown produced just 40 combined points for an Under, the Over had connected in the previous 4 meetings.

We will see enough points tonight to land Over the total.

Carolina-Green Bay Over.

3* CAROLINA-GREEN BAY OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Green Bay had about as good of a Sunday as you can have, as the Packers improved to 10-3 with their touchdown win - no cover though! - at Detroit for their 3rd win in a row which allowed them to clinch the NFC North title for the second year in a row. A little bit later in the day the Pack moved up to a tie for the best overall record in the NFC when the New Orleans Saints were stung by the Philadelphia Eagles.

Before we clear the path to the overall # 1 seed in the conference though there is this tricky game at home against Carolina they must take care of. While the straight up win does appear to be a forgone conclusion - the Panthers having lost 7 of their last 8 games, Carolina has been competitive for the most part for Matt Rhule in his first season with the team. The Panthers have played the majority of the season without their star running back Christian McCaffery who remains sidelined with a thigh injury, but they have made the most of their underdog opportunities with 7 covers in their 8 attempts in the dog role.

The Panthers have covered 5 straight away from home, including a cover at the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is no stranger to tangling with Aaron Rodgers and his Packers from his days with the Minnesota Vikings.

Carolina's offense is obviously much better when McCaffery is in there, but Teddy B and his mates have done a credible job posting points in his absence and this Green Bay defense can be had - heck they allowed 24 to the Lions last week and 25 to the Bears a few weeks ago. It is unlikely Bridgewater is going to outduel potential league MVP Aaron Rodgers, not many quarterbacks do, but with the Pack's defense plenty leaky, there will be ample opportunity for the Panthers to sneak themselves inside the back door for their 6th cover in a row on the road.

Go with the Panthers plus the points.

1* CAROLINA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Saturday night in the NFL going to give the Carolina Panthers plus the generous points a go at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay improved to 10-3 straight up on the year on Sunday when they held off a bad Detroit Lions team at Ford Field in a game the Packers could not cover as the over a touchdown favorite.

That's significant because Matt LaFleur's team seems to do just enough this year to get the straight up win, but earning the against the spread cover has been another matter.

Green Bay is no better .500 their last 8 games this year when installed as the favorite - just 4-4.

Visiting Carolina is just 4-9 this season under first-year head coach Matt Rhule and they have played the majority of their games this season without their star running back Christian McCaffery.

Even so, the Panthers have found a way to stay competitive in most of their games, especially away from home where they have covered each of their last 4 - all in the underdog role - and they are on a nice 7-1 run their last 8 when getting points from the oddsmakers!

Teddy Bridgewater knows a thing or two about playing at Lambeau Field from his playing days with the Minnesota Vikings as well.

I will not call for the outright upset as Green Bay is now gunning for the number one seed - and only bye - in the NFC standings, but I will call for Carolina to stay inside of this generous spot from the linemakers.

Take the Panthers plus the points.

2* CAROLINA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gus Augustine

My Complimentary Winner... I'm 6-2-1 with complimentary plays since my return.

I'm looking ahead to Saturday, before the line gets out of hand on the Carolina Panthers visiting the Green Bay Packers. I'll lay the points here, as Green Bay now has the No. 1 seed in the NFC, by virtue of head-to-head tiebreak. Knowing the New Orleans Saints play the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, the Packers will be looking to put this away with a statement.

Carolina, which has failed to cover six straight in December, will be hard-pressed to stop the highest-scoring team in football. Green Bay's has scored a league-leading 410 points and gained an NFL second-best 5,169 yards. The Packers end their drives with a score 48.9% of the time - also second-best in the league.

And the problem for the Panthers in this game is their defense, which allows teams to end their drives with a score a league second-worst 48.0% of the time.

They rank near the bottom of the league in quarterback knockdowns per attempt (9th at 7.3%), they have just 19 sacks (tied for 6th), and their 97 missed tackles is eighth-highest in the league.

None of that bodes well against Aaron Rodgers, who efficiency has been impeccable over his last six games, completing 148 of 199 attempts (74.3%) for an average of 289.5 yards per game. His TD-to-INT in that time span is 19-to-2.

This has been an intriguing matchup for Rodgers over the years, losing three of his first five against the Panthers. He won the last time he faced Carolina, last season, 24-16, at home.

And speaking about intriguing, Rodgers has played in 11 Week 15 games, 10 of them on the road, going 3-7 in those games. Last year was the first time he enjoyed a Week 15 game at home, defeating the Chicago Bears, 21-13.

With as bad as the Panthers are defensively, and as much as the Packers need to continue to win if they want to stay home in the playoffs, I'd say Week 15 at home against Carolina is the right spot for Rodgers and Green Bay.

2* PACKERS