Sunday 12/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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Nick Borrman Event: Rennes at Lorient
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 11AM EST
Play: Rennes (-105)
France Ligue 1
Rennes started the season very well, unbeaten in their first five games but then the Champions League started. On the European scale, Rennes just does not have the firepower to compete with Europe’s best which in their group included Chelsea and Sevilla. Once the Champions League started, their league form suffered thanks to a very brutal schedule of basically a game every 3-4 days for two months straight.
The best thing that could have happened to them for their league play anyway, was to be eliminated as they can focus solely on Ligue 1 and a much less congested schedule. They have now won back to back games since the Champions League ended against two good teams in Nice and Marseille.
Even with their bad run of form during that stretch, Rennes still own the 5th best xG differential in the league at +0.55.
Lorient, promoted from Ligue 2 last season, have not had the start to the season they were hoping for. They are currently in the relegation zone with a 3-2-10 record and -11 goal differential. Even worse, in their last eight games, they have scored just three goals, all of those coming in one game, their only win which was 3-0 over Nimes. Otherwise they have been held scoreless in seven of their last eight games!
TAKE RENNES TO WIN (ML or -0.5)
Line Parameter: 3% to -130

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Bobby Ligs Event: (353) New England Patriots at (354) Miami Dolphins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-110)

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Las Vegas Cris Event: (367) San Francisco 49ers at (368) Dallas Cowboys
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Dallas Cowboys +130
Dallas +130 Dallas has shown some spunk and shown up for games. SF doomed this season with injury issues, Dallas is the healthier team, even with a few stars out. This line would be worth considering at +3, as it is trending that direction.

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Ralph Michaels Event: (359) Jacksonville Jaguars at (360) Baltimore Ravens
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +13.0 (-110)
Free play JAX +13

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Dwayne Bryant Event: (363) Philadelphia Eagles at (364) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Total Over 49.5 (-110)
BET SIZE --> 3% at 51 or better
NO PLAY above 51
Teams with dual-threat QBs tend to be difficult to defend. Arizona fits the bill. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray keeps the chains moving with his arm and his feet. As a result, Arizona averages 30.2 points per game at home and the average total points for Cardinals home games this season is 59.7.
The Eagles offense showed signs of life last Sunday with rookie QB Jalen Hurts taking over for the ineffective Carson Wentz. The Eagles put up 24 points and 413 total yards on 6.3 yards per play. Hurts added that running threat to the tune of 106 rushing yards on 18 carries (5.9 yards per carry).
I expect the losing team to put up at least 24 points, which almost definitely puts this game above the number. Play OVER.

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Kevin Dolan Event: (365) Kansas City Chiefs at (366) New Orleans Saints
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 4PM EST
Play: New Orleans Saints +3.0 (+100)
PLAY: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +3

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Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis December 20, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Pompano Park has a big 13-race card set to roll tonight with the headliners being 2-year-olds in Florida Breeders Stakes action. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $15,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 12% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Jagger Rocks (9/5)-Hasn't faced the same level of competition as #3 but did look very sharp in recording a win last week. Should be a main player even with the bump up in what appears to be a 2-horse race.
3-War-N-Munn (2-1)-Has been using Lasix for the last 5 starts but hasn't been able to seal the deal. May switch things up and settle into the pocket behind #2 and rally down the lane to take a picture.

Race 7

1-Dash Of Danger (15-1)-Looking for a price and this 7-year-old may finally be acclimated to south Florida. Does have the gate speed to protect the rail and could get sucked around and surprise at long odds.
2-Mac Anover (15-1)-Same game plan with Mac as #1, has early speed to be forwardly placed and could get a great trip. Will swing against the one dropper #7, the tepid program chalk, who doesn't have big gate speed.
3-Mc Mach (4-1)-Steps-up after winning 3 of last 4, with only loss coming from post 10. The start of this affair should be fun to watch and may signal who takes a picture. Plano will probably want the top, that has worked in recent wins.
8-Mach West (7/2)-The post draw could pose a problem and Hennessey will probably leave for a close-up seat. May need to duck and rally late. Using because the pace should be hot, and this could set-up nicely for this 4-year-old if put into striking range.

Race 8

1-Brandon Hanover (2-1)-Form has been dull and post draws haven't helped but now finds a soft spot. Hennessey takes the lines and should be a solid threat with a decent trip.
5-Kotare Yael N (7-1)-Stepped down last week and was rimmed the mile but grinded it out to just miss by a neck. Now is pushed up in class and should offer a better price, so will respect chances versus this group.
6-ER Room (5-1)-Raced well in first Pompano start but didn't get the best of trips. Now meets a beatable field and Smith could blast out to take control.

Race 9

2-Rocksapatriot (9/2)-Fits at this class and from this post Ingraham can work a favorable journey. Looks like a trip out candidate and should be in striking range if #6 throws a dud.
6-Rockin Mercedes (9/5)-Comes off 2 nice qualifiers but hasn't raced since 9/4. Pet Rock 5-year-old lands in a spot to shine and should take a picture if comes off the bench with a decent effort. Makes its Pomp debut and has 152.4 mark at DD on the 5/8's. Was facing better at HoP and has 9 wins in 18 starts this year.

0.50 Pick 4

2,3/1,2,3,8/1,5,6/2,6
Total Bet=$24

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Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/20/20 December 20, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Sunday, December 20, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Pugin; 3-Todaystheday; 4-Nitro Time

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a maiden $25,000 five furlong turf sprint for 2-year-olds that requires as much coverage as you can give it. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and hope that’s enough. Nitro Time ships in from Churchill Downs and makes the all-important drop from maiden to maiden-claiming after displaying good early speed but then fading in an extended dash last month. Against this group we expect he’ll have a strong pace presence from start to finish, Todaystheday, a good runner-up under these conditions 16 days ago, adds blinkers and certainly has a right to continue his improving pattern. Pugin turns back from a miler and will be running on late. Second in his last pair and a fit on speed figures, the Palace Malice gelding will need some luck from the rail but if room develops in the stretch he could tag the speed.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Midnight Whiskey; 6-Nimble Beast

Forecast: Let’s take a shot with a price play in this restricted (nw-2) $6,250 extended sprint for older horses. Midnight Whiskey shows up cheap in his first start for a tag, adds blinkers, and has back numbers that are good enough to win. His recent form looks bleak but against this group he may regain his confidence, and if he can flash some of his old early speed he should be in the fray throughout. Nimble Beast finally found a soft maiden $10,000 field he could outrun last month and graduated in his 14th career start. The number was better than par for this level, so the K. O’Connell-trained gelding has to be taken seriously right back.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Rockstar Ro; 4-Lucky Law

Forecast: Rockstar Ro probably can’t beat a real good 2-year-old maiden but if there aren’t any world beaters in this five furlong turf sprint he should be tough to handle. The son of Gemologist has run well on grass in the past and most recently finished fourth in a hot dirt sprint at Churchill Downs after leading the way inside the furlong pole. At this shorter trip, he’ll take some catching. First-timer Lucky Law has six consecutive bullet workouts on his resume to indicate plenty of speed and ability for a barn that is quite capable with debut runners. Certainly bred to win early (No Nay Never), the P. Biancone-trained colt would appear to be the most dangerous of the newcomers and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Gilded Lady; 6-Good Shabbos; 8-You’re the Best

Forecast: Good Shabbos drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and against this soft $20,000 field the daughter of Munnings seems properly spotted to earn her diploma. A strong fit on speed figures and in the frame in seven of eight career starts, the K. Breen-trained filly lacks tactical speed but should have every chance to produce the last run. Of some concern, though, is that she was a beaten favorite in her last pair and may not be one to totally trust. Gilded Lady finished first in a similar affair at Monmouth Park in August but was disqualified for drifting out badly and causing interference in the stretch. The number she earned makes her a major player against this group and a healthy recent work tab indicates she is plenty fit. Hopefully, she runs straight today. You’re the Best drops to her lowest level ever, hit the board in her last pair and has numbers that are competitive. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics without any great conviction.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:01 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Centsless Drama; 4-Spin Your Partner

Forecast: Spin Your Partner improved dramatically when beating straight maidens at GPW in October in her first start since joining the J. Cibelli barn and returns today in a starter’s allowance race that she’s eligible for after competing for a modest tag earlier in her career. The daughter of Hard Spun wants to be held up and allowed to run late, so if she employs the proper tactics with the switch to the barn’s “go-to” rider P. Lopez there’s every reason to believe she can win right back at 4-1 on the morning line. Centsless Drama will be the controlling speed as usual, though she’s always suspect under pressure close home. Second in her last four starts after holding the lead inside the furlong pole, the daughter of Big Drama can’t really be trusted but she’s a fit on speed figures so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:40 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Digital Footprint; 8-Shining Through; 12-Bee Catcher

Forecast: Here’s an “anything” goes turf miler for restricted (nw-2) $20,000 older horses. Bee Catcher is stuck on the far outside and it’s questionable whether he’ll be able to secure the type of trip needed to win but he’s a strong fit while dropping to his lowest level ever and has a prior win over this course and distance. L. Saez will likely drop over, get cover, and then hope to find room to rally from the quarter pole home. Digital Footprint is somewhat intriguing at 6-1 on the morning line in his first start since February and his first for M. Maker. The son of Giant’s Causeway likely will display good early speed from his favorable inside draw, and his recent work tab indicates he should be fit enough for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners. Shining Through has one win in 19 starts with nine seconds and thirds, so he’s hardly one to trust, but the Malibu Moon gelding shows a recent runner-up effort over the local lawn and seems likely to clunk up and at least get a minor award. We’ll have him on a ticket or two as a back-up.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:08 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Tayet; 8-Unbridled d’Oro

Forecast: Tayet is listed at 10-1 on the morning line but seems certain to go lower than that. The daughter of Cairo Prince flashed good early speed from the rail over seven furlongs in her debut at Churchill Downs last month and led the way until mid-stretch before weakening. She figures to stick much better today with that effort behind her and very likely will be the controlling speed from her rail draw. The best of the newcomers we suspect is the T. Pletcher-trained Unbridled d’Oro, a filly by Medaglia d’Oro from Ballerina S.-G1 winner Unbridled Forever. There’s nothing fancy on the work tab at Palm Beach Downs but the barn has strong stats with first-timers and she’s been given a strong foundation of drills to have her fit and ready. From what we’ve seen on tape she’s a good mover with plenty of ability.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:38 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Stefanie On Fleek; 7-Little Bit Good; 9-Skye Snow

Forecast: Skye Snow won a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 seller with a career top speed figure at Belmont Park in September and was claimed by high percentage trainer B. Cox. Off for nearly three months and returning in this (nw-3) $20,000 affair, the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid takes the most unhealthiest of class drops, even for a barn that hits at 26% with the first-off-the-claim angle. Her recent :47 1/5 breeze around dogs on grass (second fastest of 49) provides hope that she has at least one good one left, so with I. Ortiz, Jr. taking the call we’ll put her on top at 5/2 on the morning line but certainly won’t put all of our eggs in her basket. Little Bit Good and Stefanie On Fleek, two-three finishers in a similar affair here earlier this month, are in solid form and should fire their best shots. The former is winless in five starts over the local lawn but was nosed out when earning a career top speed figure and should be heard from late, while the latter is a one-paced grinding type but projects to enjoy a ground-saving, second flight journey and have every chance when the pressure is turned on.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:12 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Green Mansions; 4-Dardanellos; 7-Nacho Papa

Forecast: Trainer J. Delgado has two solid contenders in this state-bred allowance optional claiming sprint, with Green Mansions, a first-off-the-claim play turning back from a sloppy track GPW router to a one-turn mile, looking fairly solid even though he’s just 1-for-16 in his career over the local main track. The Kantharos gelding likes to settle and make one run and under I. Ortiz, Jr., he’ll get the proper ride. Stable mate Nacho Papa is nicely drawn outside and is fresh from earning a career top speed figure when second in a restricted $8,000 router at GPW in mid-November. He’ll be forwardly placed today, perhaps even on the lead, in a race that projects to have an extremely soft early pace. Worth tossing in at 8-1 on the morning line is Dardanellos, a three time winner at Gulfstream Park but with recent form that looks unattractive. He’s got back numbers that are good enough to win and should draft into a cozy stalking journey and have his chance from there.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-The Virginian; 6-Ray’swarrior

Forecast: Tough old pro Ray’swarrior clearly deserves the edge on top in this Florida-bred five furlong grass sprint for allowance optional claimers. The K. Breen-trained gelding was unplaced in the Claiming Crown Express but tackles easier today and returns to a course that he’s won on in the past. In an abbreviated dash that surprisingly lacks a lot of speed types, he could find himself on or near the lead throughout, and with 11 wins on his resume the son of Majestic Warrior knows how to capitalize when given that type of trip. The Virginian is lightly-raced with room to improve, having finished a solid runner-up sprinting on turf at GPW last month. He’s a bit light in the speed figure department but at least his numbers are headed in the right direction.
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Race 11: Post Time: 5:11 ET Grade: B-
Use: 11-Riggins; 12-Mr. Tip

Forecast: The two main contenders in this mile grass affair for restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claimers must leave from the extreme outside, so this could turn out to be something of a chaotic affair. Riggins returns to grass and drops into a seller, so we suspect the Liam’s Map gelding will be able to repeat the quality of his maiden claiming win over this course and distance last spring, one that earned a speed figure that is par for this level. He’ll likely drop back, try to save some ground, and then kick home when set down. Mr. Tip surfaces for a tag for the first time and should greatly appreciate this softer assignment. He’ll need to overcome the 12-hole and avoid losing too much ground early, but if he can secure a second flight, stalking trip he should have a pretty good look.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#2 Rip It
Taking a little shot with this one as he drops again while adding blinkers after getting outrun in the dirt debut last time out. It's a stretch, but at anything like the 15/1 ML price, why not?


#6 Bananas on Fire
Caught an easy winner when trying this trip for the first time, and he's got the look of the one to beat off that big run last out. Something similar would do.


#9 What the Flash
Hasn't really had a ton of excuses to this point, but he drops into his easiest spot yet and wouldn't be a surprise. Don't think the price will be fair.


Race Summary
Rip It has to come forward in a big way off the dirt debut last time out, but perhaps the addition of blinkers while getting some more class relief will be enough to take him up at a price.


Laurel Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#10 Miss Old Bay
Debuted for $25,000, so this drop isn't all that panicky off the dull tries at the $40,000 level. She has some pace to use from the gate, and she should be able to get home in this softer spot.


#1 Popeye's Oyl
She has been alternating bad races with those that are a bit less bad, and if that cycle holds, she'd be sitting on a better one here. Her two decent tries came with better, so she's worth another look at this level at what is likely a better price this time around. In the gimmicks with the chalk on top?


#6 Cornetta's Choice
She heads into her 11th lifetime start, and the last two have been absolutely nothing to write home about. Still, her form fits well in here, but she's probably a bit overbet.


Race Summary
Miss Old Bay should be tough on the big drop, and her early foot should leave her in a great spot out of the gate. Popeye's Oyl might be the right price player to spice things up with the chalk on top.


Laurel Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#5 Oxide
Big effort with state-bred company last time out when adding blinkers, and I'm willing to take that try with blinkers at face value. Something similar would do here.


#9 Moose Lodge
Turned in a pair of good tries at Monmouth that seem to stack up well enough with these. Tactical type should work out a pretty nice, spying trip.


#2 In the Loop
Forward player should land a great trip right up on the splits, and he proved a good fit at this level last time out while stepping up in a big way.


Race Summary
Oxide took a huge step forward when adding blinkers for the first time, and there's a chance he's simply a new horse after the equipment change.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 Indicia
The price play in here comes in off a third on dirt and was third the last time she was on turf; she'll get a fast pace in front of her and has a good chance of firing late in the game.


#2 Centsless Drama
Is a pacesetter and was second in her last four; needs a cushion turning for home in order to stay.


#5 Topo Grigio
Broke her maiden two back and was third in a good sprint last out; moves over to the turf and Pletcher charges have been good off the bench.


Race Summary
Indicia should get an ideal pace setup here and with a clean trip can make up considerable ground; Torres will have her rolling.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#1 Charlie the Greek
Hasn't won since March but has hit the board in several good races and can be effective vs. Florida-breds at this level.


#5 Starship Apollo
Was claimed two back and was fourth as he ran back for Sweezey; stretches out to a mile and can mix it up from the start.


#2 Green Mansions
Weakened last time and was a well-beaten fourth; was claimed out of that one by Delgado and gets Ortiz for his return.


Race Summary
Charlie the Greek has been vs. better and should be able to carve out a good trip; ready to get back to the winner's circle.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#6 Ray'swarrior
Moves over to the turf after good dirt sprints at various track and has made his way from the bottom on up to this level. Veteran has won on grass.


#8 Nicholas Rose
Went to turf for the first time last out and was up in time for a narrow win; capable of closing ground in this spot.


#2 The Virginian
Does his best at five furlongs turf and comes in off a second; likely to be fairly close throughout.


Race Summary
Ray'swarrior has done quite a bit at various class levels and should be able to handle these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al McMordie (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/al-mcmordie) - NFL - Sun, Dec 20 at 1:00 PM
Big Al's Free Colts/Texans Winner! Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts -7 (-115) (BetOnline (https://record.commissionkings.ag/_mflJQWEiC-BqkvbhkiKqDGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/))

At 1 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Houston. The Texans are 4-9 after getting blown out (as a road favorite, no less) by Chicago, 36-7. That was Houston's second straight defeat, so it's hard to back it at Indianapolis this afternoon. And, dating back to 1980, NFL teams off back to back losses, including a 21-point (or worse) upset road loss in their previous game, have covered just 36.5%. Even worse: the Colts are 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 games in this series, including 8-0-1 ATS when Indy owned a winning record. Lay the points with the Colts. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA Free Pick Sunday NFL San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-115) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

#367 ASA FREE PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These two have similar record with San Fran coming in at 5-8 and Dallas at 4-9. Even with their records standing only 1 game apart, San Fran is just -11 this season in point differential and Dallas is -102. Also, the Niners have played the toughest schedule thus far in the NFL while Dallas has played the 28th most difficult. That’s to be expected with the Cowboys in the ultra weak NFC East while SF plays in the tough NFC West. Niners are just 1-5 their previous 6 games, however they’ve been run through the gauntlet facing Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, LA Rams, and Buffalo during that stretch. Last week they played Washington who is currently in 1st place in the NFC East and lost but outgained them by 151 yards. They held Washington’s offense to just 3.1 YPP, however SF gave up 2 defensive TD’s on a 76 yard pick 6 and a 47 yard fumble return. Dallas is coming off a win vs a terrible Cincinnati team last week. Since losing QB Burrow, the Bengals offense has been horrible. However, they did outgain the Cowboys last week in the loss but had 3 turnovers (0 for Dallas). SF has a huge edge defensively here ranking in the top 6 in both YPG and YPP allowed. Dallas ranks outside the outside the top 22 in both despite playing a weak schedule of offenses in the NFC East. The Cowboy offense has played 5 games this year vs teams inside to top 8 in total defense and they’ve averaged 12 PPG in those games. Their losses this year have come by an average of 15 PPG. We’ll take the much better team at this low number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist's NFL Free Winner, Sun, Dec 20 New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins -1 (-107) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

The Patriots looked like they had the offense back on track after scoring at least 20 points in six straight game and going 4-2 over that six game stretch. However, that all came to a halt last week when they play at the LA Rams. The Pats scored just three points in a 3-24 loss. The offense had just 220 total yards and one turnover. The defense played decent, holding LA to 318 yards and one turnover. Cam Newton had just 113 yards passing and the team had 107 yards rushing. The Dolphins mounted a nice comeback at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, but came up on the short end of a 27-33 contest. Though they did backend the spread to get the cover against the +7 point line. The Dolphins have been a good under team all year. They have gone under in three of their last four games and are 5-8 O/U on the season. The passing defense had allowed 174 or fewer their previous three of four games before Patrick Mahones torched them for 354 last week. Though the defense did get four takeaways and three sacks against the Chiefs. Neither of these teams have highly ranked offenses, with Miami coming in at 27th and the Pats at 24th. Just need a win out of Miami here on Sunday to get the money. I like the Dolphins as they find ways to win without a lot of offense. Your free play is on the Dolphins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/wayne-root) - NFL - Sun, Dec 20 at 4:05 PM
PLAY IS THE NY JETS New York Jets vs Los Angeles Rams
New York Jets +17 (-108) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

Taking 17 points in the NFL late in the season is the way to bet. Trevor Lawrence better think about this team and this game. As for the Jets, they’ll continue their winless season on the road against the Rams on Sunday. One man that isn’t thinking about tanking is quarterback Sam Darnold. Why in the world would he want to hand away his starting job to the guy with the flowing, long blonde hair? This is as good of a time as any for him to show the Jets they’re making a mistake by even considering pushing him aside. They did invest a No. 3 overall pick in him in 2018. So there has to be a little “should we or should we not” trepidation happening in the front office right now. His best ally is one offensive score and the 17 points. They need one Goff turnover to eat up time. The Rams won’t run the score up. Take the points AND get the PINNACLE Dog of the Year. 81% at 13-3 for the season is fantastic and this is the Game of the Year. UPSET BABY!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy's Sunday NFL Winner Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints Under 52.5 (-107) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is being pegged as a shootout, as you would expect in a game between the juggernaut Chiefs and the Saints in a domed environment in New Orleans. I'm not so sure we're going to see that type of game unfold, however. The Chiefs offense isn't invincible and it will be up against a stout Saints defense that will have a sour taste in its mouth after last week's tough loss in Philadelphia (we won with the Eagles in that game). Note that Kansas City is dealing with a cluster of injuries and absences on its offensive line and now faces a nightmare matchup against a dominant Saints pass rush. Meanwhile, New Orleans is expected to welcome back QB Drew Brees, who had been playing well prior to his injury, but I'm not sure he's interested or capable of going toe-to-toe with Pat Mahomes in a back-and-forth shootout at this stage of his career, especially with WR Michael Thomas sidelined (he's been placed on injured reserve). The Saints should give the Chiefs a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara, both running the football and in the short passing game in this one. With both defenses focused on eliminating their opponents' big play potential look for plenty of long drives ultimately helping keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

It is now Week 15 of the NFL campaign and I have been money on Sunday's this season. ANother Sunday winner goes for you right now.

Tampa Bay came back from their bye-week last weekend with a 12-point home win and cover against the Minnesota Vikings in a game that was a lot closer than the final score indicated as Vikings kicker Dan Bailey did miss an extra point and 3 field goals along the way. Still, the Bucs win puts them back in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot and Tampa has the benefit of playing these Atlanta Falcons twice now over the final 3 weeks of the season.

I am not going to dwell over past history meetings - the Falcons are 6-1 straight up the past 7! - because this will be the first time Tampa Bay will be facing Atlanta with Tom Brady at quarterback and I have a strong suspicion that if Brady had been in a Tampa uniform for some of those past meetings then the Falcons would not be 6-1.

Atlanta continues to find interesting ways to lose football games this season with last week's latest setback - their 9th in 13 games this year - came with the Chargers kicking a closing seconds field goal to dump them 20-17. The Falcons offense has been held to 17 points or less in their last pair and in 3 of their last 4 games overall. Both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are dealing with injuries and are listed as questionable and my feeling is now that the team is eliminated from the playoff picture I doubt either will be too eager to get back on the field and risks re-injuring themselves.

Matt Ryan has been sacked 33 times on the season and did get intercepted 3 times in last week's last seconds loss to the Chargers. Tampa's defense has sacked the opposing quarterbacks 40 times already this season, so this sure looks like a bad matchup for the home team today.

Bucs with the road win and cover over the Falcons for Sunday.

2* TAMPA BAY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gus Augustine

My Complimentary Winner... I'm 7-2-2 with complimentary plays since my return.

My free winner for Sunday is on the New England Patriots, plus the points in Miami against a Dolphins team that has one major intangible working against it.

Bill Belichick is 20-5 lifetime in the regular season against rookie quarterbacks. Add a playoff game in 2004, against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, make it 21-5.

Roethlisberger, Colt McCoy, Russell Wilson, Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith are the only rookies to serve the mad scientist an L, as rookies, in the regular season.

A couple weeks back, L.A. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert felt the wrath in a 45-0 loss on his field. And it's important to note this is a kid who leads the league in passing yards when under pressure.

Next up: Tua Tagovailoa.

The rookie from Alabama has lost two of his last three, in Denver, where the Broncos limited him to a 55% completion percentage, and last week at home against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who stymied him to a 58.3% clip.

Tagovailoa has impressive QB ratings twice this season. The other five, not so much - an average of 85.74. His overall quarterback rating (based on ESPN's formula) is a not-so impressive 57.3.

Belichick has become a master of figuring young quarterbacks out by studying their nuances, and how to fluster them into situations they're not accustomed to. By figuring out what the youngsters haven't, once under pressure, Belichick employs the second and third steps to stopping a quarterback.

Bad news for Tagovailoa, who is sacked 7.1% of the time he attempts a sack - tied for 11th-highest in the league, with - ahem - New England's Cam Newton.

Coming off a disappointing loss to Kansas City, and the only wins the past month coming against the Jets and Bengals, something tells me this is a letdown spot for Miami.

2* PATRIOTS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

It's scary to say, scary to think, scary to know, but the NFC East might be one of the best performing divisions right now. Sounds crazy, right?

Well, I'm taking the points Sunday with the Washington Football Team catching points against the Seattle Seahawks.

Surprised Washington can finish the season 9-7, but it's possible by winning out, and it could roll into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams by doing so.

In case you haven't been paying attention, Washington has one of the best defenses in the league, ranking sixth in points allowed (275), fourth in yards allowed (4,074), and third in first downs allowed (238). During a current four-game win streak, the Football Team has yielded an average of 14.2 points, including a 23-17 win over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.

You really questioning whether or not Washington can beat Seattle, which just lost to the New York Giants two weeks ago? Please don't bring up last week's 40-3 win over the New York Jets. That means nothing. Against the NFC East this season, the average final has been 24.3-21.6 in favor of the Seahawks. Tht wouldn't cover this number.

Seattle has the L.A. Rams on deck in what the Seahawks may deem as more important, and that doesn't help in this cross-country clash.

I'm taking the points here.

1* FOOTBALL TEAM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

My comp play for Sunday will be the Jets and Rams Under the total.

New York could only manage a field goal in last week's 40-3 shellacking at Seattle and they also only managed a field goal when they faced the Miami Dolphins 3 weeks ago. It seems highly-likely the Jets will be held in the single-digit price range again today when they make another east-to-west journey to face the Los Angeles Rams.

L.A. has been off since their defense stifled Cam Newton and the New England Patriots 24-3 back on December 10th in a game that held well Under the posted total.

Sean McVay knows he has a defense that can play lights-out, so expect him to have his quarterback Jared Goff to rely on the running of breakout rookie Cam Akers and also rely on short dink-and-dunk routes to keep possession of the football and chew up the clock today. The Rams defense will do the rest as this figures to be a textbook 31 points or so combined Under.

Los Angeles has played Under the total in 8 of their last 10 games and in 9 of 13 overall this year! The Rams defense is allowing just 18.9 points per game for the season, while the Jets come in averaging only 14.1 points per game on offense.

Oh, the Rams may score some points, but they will not allow the Jets to score enough to help take this one Over the total.

Jets-Rams Under on Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

3* N.Y. JETS-L.A. RAMS UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Biggest number of the regular season being posted on today's Jets-Rams game and I have to lay it!

The Jets are inching closer to their goal of completing the season without a win and placing themselves squarely as the favorites to draft Clemson's Trevor Lawrence. After last weekend's 40-3 blasting at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks, New York is now 0-13 straight up and the +16 1/2 points they were getting last week didn't help one iota as the Jets have now failed 5 of their last 6 games when installed as the road underdog.

As for the Rams, they have been off since that Thursday night game at home against the New England Patriots when they were able to dominate Bill Belichick's team, 24-3. The Los Angeles defense leads the league in yards allowed per game - 285.8 yards. They are also 3rd in both points allowed - just 18.9 per game - and in total sacks with 42 recorded in their 13 games played this year.

Sean McVay's team stands at 10-3 on the season and they have won 5 of their 6 home games this season and have covered in 6 of their last 8 home games overall. The Rams do have their second and final game with division-rival Seattle on-deck for next weekend, but with the Jets being such a BAD team, I don't see anyway the Rams will overlook tattooing this New York team especially playing at home for the second straight week and with a couple of added days of rest to boot.

Remember, not only are the Jets 0-13, but they made the long trek to Seattle last weekend and flew back home and now they must make another 3,000 mile journey for the second weekend in a row.

I don't think it will be 40-3 this weekend for the Flyboys, but I can see the Rams taking this one in the 31-10 price range.

4* L.A. RAMS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Siefken Event: (300937) Bayern at (300938) Oldenburg
Sport/League: EBB
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Total Under 166.5 (-116)
I am winning 57% of my Bundesliga German basketball bets and I have a best bet pack of two picks for only $15. In this one my numbers have the total at 155.5, that is 11 points of line value and it's enough for a 3% play on the Under 166.5. Bayern has the best defense in the league by far and they should be able to hold the high-powered offense of Oldenburg down. Bet Total Under 166.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril Event: (367) San Francisco 49ers at (368) Dallas Cowboys
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3.0 (-105)
-San Francisco was in a terrific scheduling spot last week, and they still lost; bad spot here
-Dallas is 2-2 SU over their last 4 games; they are once again playing a team on their level
-Cowboys average 5.9 yards per play at home vs. defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play
Play COWBOYS (+).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek Event: (353) New England Patriots at (354) Miami Dolphins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Total Under 41.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin Event: (355) Seattle Seahawks at (356) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Washington Football Team +6.5 (-110)
I can't say I'm excited about Haskins having to play QB for Washington. But aside from that, I think there's plenty of reason to back this surprisingly hot team. The WFT defense is playing at a sensational level right now, and anytime I can take a touchdown range with a home team that is stopping like they are, I am usually going to be very interested. Obviously, we cannot afford to get into a shootout here. If the Seahawks offense has a big day, there's no way the home team is going to stay with them. But aside from last week's blowout over the miserable Jets, the Seattle offense has been a little spotty over the last month. They're certainly not scoring like they did earlier in the campaign. The key here is Haskins avoiding turnovers. If he can just manage the game, I absolutely can see the home dog having a legit chance to get a fifth straight win. I will take the points with Washington in what I see as a one possession battle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo Event: (355) Seattle Seahawks at (356) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Washington Football Team +6.5 (-110)
FREE PLAY: 3% WASHINGTON +6.5
Classic spot where we are getting the better defense getting points at home. Washington has held 4 straight opponents to 17 points or less. We also find that SEATTLE is just 8-22 ATS following a win by 21 points or more.
WASHINGTON 20-17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez Event: (355) Seattle Seahawks at (356) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-110)
Injuries continue to pile up for the upstart Washington player personnel. Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense has turned more to Pete Carrol's roots, running the football, and if there is one variable that defines the Washington football team it isn't their ability to stop the opposition from grinding out yards via the ground.
Alex Smith's status has been questionable all week and I fully expect Dwayne Haskins to start behind center today. The Seahawks clinch a playoff spot with a huge road win today on Eastern Standard Time.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports Event: (363) Philadelphia Eagles at (364) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-105)
Arizona's offense thrives when quarterback Kyle Murray uses his legs and I expect head coach Kliff Kingsbury to continue calling designed runs now that his quarterback is healthy. The Cardinals' offense is 14th in the league in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA, and those numbers should improve against an injury-riddled Philadelphia secondary that is without both starting cornerbacks and three-fourths of its original secondary.
Specifically, Philadelphia cornerback Darius Slay did not travel with the team and is out with a concussion, while Avonte Maddox and Rodney McLeod were recently placed on injured reserve with knee injuries. Philadelphia's backups allowed 8.0 yards per pass play and a 50% success rate against the Saints last week and will be exploited once again by an Arizona offense that employs four wide receivers a league-high 22% of the time.
Finally, Arizona is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and applies to a very good 32-17-1 ATS situation of mine that invests on certain favorites off a road win versus foes entering off an upset win. Take Arizona minus the points as Oskeim Sports' Free NFL Winner for Sunday, December 20.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers Event: (365) Kansas City Chiefs at (366) New Orleans Saints
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (-110)
Take Kansas City (#365)
The Chiefs are in the midst of a remarkable run: 5-0 SU in their last five games, but 0-5 ATS during that same span. Week after week, we’ve seen KC in an inflated pointspread range. Week after week, they’ve cost their backers money. This is an elite team with a very limited betting bandwagon – right now is the time to start backing Kansas City. I’m not expecting Drew Brees to be in midseason form after missing extended time with his rib injury and the Saints defense got gashed in Philly last week; bad news against Patrick Mahomes and company. Short chalk worth laying! Take the Chiefs.
Teddy enters the weekend riding a 68% NFL hot streak over the past seven weeks and a 69% college football run over the last month; making $$ for himself & his clients RIGHT NOW. Take advantage! Ride the hot hand & get onboard to cash in with Teddy’s NFL and college football winners all weekend long!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

https://www.bettorschat.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=10582&d=1607952832

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Eagles (+7.5, ML +290) vs. Saints, 24-21
Broncos (+4, ML +170) at Panthers, 32-27
Washington (+3, ML +130) at 49ers, 23-15

The largest favorites to cover

Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Jets, 40-3
Titans (-7.5) at Jaguars, 31-10
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Vikings, 26-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Chicago Bears game had a total of 46.5. If you were an 'over' bettor, you might have started celebrating a little bit at halftime. The Bears, who average just 21.7 points per game, scored 23 points in the second quarter, taking a 30-7 lead into the break. Over bettors needed just 10 total points in the second half and they would be holding a winning ticket.

However, in the second half, the Texans offense continued to struggle, and the Bears were able to cobble together a pair of drives for field goals, winning 36-7. Under (46.5) bettors were left shaking their heads after it looks like an 'over' result was all but in the bag. Houston has now hit the under in four of the past five games, and Chicago has hit the under in seven of the previous 10.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Kansas City Chiefs-Miami Dolphins battle was a huge disappointment if you were holding a Chiefs (-7) ticket, and it wasn't terrible enjoyable if you were an 'under' (51.5) bettor, either.

QB Patrick Mahomes and company were leading 14-10 at halftime, and they put their foot on the gas in the third quarter and extended the lead to 30-10, including a 67-yard punt return for score by WR Mecole Hardman, and a safety. Things were looking up if you were laying the touchdown, but that's always a tough cover on the road.

The Dolphins stormed back with a pair of touchdowns, cutting Kansas City's lead to 30-24. QB Tua Tagovailoa had the 1-yard plunge with 4:15 to go, and that clinched the 'over'.

With just 68 seconds remaining in regulation, PK Harrison Butker booted a 46-yard field goal, and the Chiefs were up 33-24. It appeared they might have gotten the cover back. However, the Dolphins moved the ball down the field and elected to kick the 44-yard field goal first, since they needed two scores. That cut the lead back to 33-27, and it was like losing twice for Chiefs side bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Philadelphia Eagles (42.5) matchup. Instead of QB Drew Brees vs. QB Carson Wentz, it was Taysom Hill-Jalen Hurts, as Brees is out with an injury to his ribs, and Wentz was benched last week in favor of the more mobile rookie.

The game got off to a slow start after a scoreless first quarter, and the Saints didn't get their first points until the third quarter, cutting a 17-0 lead to 17-14. Under bettors were still looking good with 6:22 to play, as the Eagles saw RB Miles Sanders score his second touchdown of the game, making it 24-14. But with 1:24 to go, TE Jared Cook made a tremendous grab in the back of the end zone to make it 24-21. That was the final score, much to the dismay of 'under' bettors.

The highest total on Sunday was the Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions (56) tilt, and they tried late to make it go 'over'. The Packers scored seven or more points in each their four quarters, including a total of 20 combined points.

If you bet this game early in the week, you might have gotten the line at 55, for a push, or even at 54 briefly, for an over. But since it closed at 56, we'll officially call it an under.

In the first primetime game Thursday night, the New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams (43.5) game easily went 'under', and it was never really in doubt. The Rams scratched out a 24-3 win over the Pats, cooling them off. In chilly conditions with flurries in western New York, the Buffalo Bills upended the Pittsburgh Steelers (48.5) by a 26-15 count, yet another under for primetime bettors with the Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns (45.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 26-15 (63.4%) across 41 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Chargers slapped the breaks on an 0-6 ATS skid with a win and cover over the Falcons on Sunday, 20-17. Previous to Sunday's game against Atlanta, the Bolts only had a victory over the winless New York Jets since Oct. 25, or Week 7. That includes a 31-26 setbvack against the Raiders at SoFi Stadium in L.A., as Las Vegas cover a one-point number as road favorites as the 'over' (52) connected.

The Raiders were drummed 44-27 at home against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther as a result, naming Rod Marinelli as the interim DC. The Raiders have allowed 28 or more points in four straight, and 43 or more points in two of the previous three. Vegas enters Thursday's game on an 0-3 ATS skid after a 4-0 ATS run from Weeks 8 through 11.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Panthers were toppled 32-27 by the Denver Broncos at home on Sunday, failing to cover as the 'over' (46.5) connected. Carolina has lost nine games this season, but seven have been one-score games. They covered in their most recent road game against an NFC North team, the Minnesota Vikings, but they're 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in three games vs. the North this season.

For the Packers, they clinched the NFC North Division title with a win in Detroit, but they will likely keep their foot on the gas since there is just one bye at stake in this season's playoffs, so expect them to continue bringing their best. Green Bay has won three in a row since an overtime setback at Indianapolis in Week 11, and they're 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in six home games at Lambeau Field this season.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts picked up a 26-20 victory on the road against the Texans in Week 13, and now they meet again just two weeks later. If you remember, QB Deshaun Watson had a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter in the red zone, as the Texans were driving for a much-needed, and rare, win. As such, the Colts picked up the win and cover as 3.5-point favorites, moving to 4-1 ATS across the past five, while the 'over' is also 4-1 during the span.

The Texans have managed just 13.5 PPG across the past two games, while allowing 31.0 PPG, going 0-2 SU/ATS during the span as the 'under' has cashed. The under is also 4-1 in their previous five, including that game against Indy.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Steelers are on a two-game skid after opening the season 11-0 SU. That includes back-to-back losses to the Washington Football Team and the Bills, and they're 0-3 ATS across the past three. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-0-1 in the previous six, including a push on the total in a 36-10 win over the Bengals in Week 10, easily covering a 6.5-point number.

The Bengals offense is in disarray since losing QB Joe Burrow (knee) to a season-ending injury in Week 11 in Washington. Since the third quarter of that game they have managed just 31 points across the past 14 quarters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Odds Week 15: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Alvin Kamara and the Saints put together a nine-game win streak, but will start anew after a Week 14 loss. New Orleans has a tough Week 15 chore, sitting as a 4-point home underdog to Kansas City.

NFL Week 14 has some Monday unfinished business, but NFL Week 15 odds won't be denied, with several games already seeing action. A key AFC-NFC matchup highlights the schedule, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the New Orleans Saints, and the Seattle Seahawks travel to face the surprisingly surging Washington Football Team.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 15 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 15 Odds

Chargers at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders -3, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Las Vegas is now on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs and very much needs a win Thursday night, after getting run out of its own building 44-27 by Indianapolis in Week 14. Los Angeles, which has lost seven one-score games this season, finally won one Sunday at home, edging Atlanta 20-17 on a final-second field goal.

"We opened the Chargers +3 (-120) and are still there," Murray said Sunday evening. "We took a number of bets on the Chargers on our look-ahead number (+3.5) and would definitely expect wiseguys to get involved on the Chargers if the number goes any higher."

Texans at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -7.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
Indianapolis put a 40-plus burger on Las Vegas in Week 14, notching a 44-27 road victory to improve its playoff hopes. On the flip side, Houston went to the Windy City and got blown away in a 36-7 loss.

The SuperBook opened the Colts at -7.5, and perhaps surprisingly, the first move was toward the Texans, as the line ticked to -7 later Sunday night.

Panthers at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -9, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Green Bay got a little more than it expected at Detroit, especially in the first half, but notched a 31-24 Week 14 victory and is currently the NFC's top playoff seed. Carolina went off as a 4-point home favorite against Denver and lost outright 32-27.

The Packers opened -9 at The SuperBook, and the line was stable Sunday night.

Bills at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver went to Carolina and came away with a modest upset in a 32-27 victory Sunday. Buffalo notched an impressive 26-15 home win over Pittsburgh in the Week 14 Sunday nighter, the Bills' third straight win and sixth in seven games as they solidified their spot atop the AFC East.

The Bills opened -4, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the game came off the board during the Steelers-Bills Sunday night game. Bills-Broncos will go back up Monday morning.

Lions at Titans Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
Tennessee rebounded from its home loss to Cleveland by plowing over Jacksonville 31-10 on the road Sunday. Detroit made Green Bay work a bit, but fell short at home 31-24, and quarterback Matthew Stafford left in the fourth quarter with a rib injury.

The SuperBook held off posting the Lions-Titans matchup while awaiting clarity on Stafford's status.

Jets at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -16.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved
Los Angeles benefits from the mini-bye this week, after routing New England 24-3 in the Week 14 Thursday nighter. Meanwhile, New York remains winless (0-13 SU, 4-9 ATS) after getting boatraced 40-3 at Seattle on Sunday.

The Rams opened at a hefty -16.5, up three points from last week's look-ahead number at The SuperBook. Later Sunday night, Los Angeles stretched a tick higher to -17.

Buccaneers at Falcons Odds
Opening line
Falcons +3.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay lost two in a row and three of four, putting their playoff position in peril, but bounced back Sunday with a 26-14 home win over Minnesota. Atlanta came up short at the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 20-17 on a final-seconds field goal.

The Buccaneers opened -3.5 Sunday evening and within a few minutes moved to -4 at The SuperBook.

Patriots at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -3, Over/Under 42.5

Why the line moved
Miami gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City a game, but just didn't have enough in a 33-27 Week 14 home loss. New England went to Los Angeles and got belted 24-3 by the Rams in the Thursday nighter, so at the least, the Patriots will have a little more rest this week.

"We opened the game Dolphins -3 (-110), took some money on the Patriots and moved to Patriots +2.5," Murray said. "It will be interesting to see how the rookie Tua Tagovailoa fares in his first match up with Bill Belichick."

Seahawks at Washington Odds
Opening line
WFT +3.5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
Washington topped San Francisco 23-15 Sunday, playing at the Arizona Cardinals' stadium, and has now won and cashed four in a row to take control of the plodding NFC East. Seattle bounced back from its shocking home loss to the New York Giants by bashing the New York Jets 40-3 at home.

"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4.5," Murray said. "The move makes sense. Seattle righted the ship today against the Jets, and the public will be all over the Seahawks in this game, even after seeing Football Team win a few in a row and move into first place. Books will be rooting for 'Team' pretty big on Sunday."

Bears at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved
Chicago surprisingly pulled it together in Week 14, flattening Houston 36-7 to snap a six-game skid (1-5 ATS). Minnesota, meanwhile, fell at Tampa Bay 26-14. Bears-Vikings was on the move right away Sunday night, with Minnesota down a half-point to -3 (-120).

"We opened Bears +3.5 and took money right away on Chicago. Our look-ahead line on that game was too high," Murray said, alluding to the Vikings -6.5 look-ahead number posted last week. "The Bears are a different beast with Akiem Hicks in there."

The defensive end helped Chicago put the clamps on Deshaun Watson and the Texans.

Jaguars at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -12.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville had little answer for Tennessee on Sunday, losing at home 31-10. Baltimore still has Week 14 work to do in the Monday nighter at Cleveland. The SuperBook went ahead and installed the Ravens as 12.5-point favorites, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Browns at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York's impressive runs of 4-0 SU and 5-1 ATS came to a crashing halt on its home field in Sunday's 26-7 loss to Arizona. Cleveland is on a four-game win streak, but still has unfinished Week 14 business, with a key home game Monday night against Baltimore.

"We opened the Browns -3.5 and are still there," Murray said. "It's funny to see this game flexed to Sunday night. I wonder if the NFL is regretting that after the Giants' performance today. We’ll need the Giants, but I don’t think it’ll be as high volume of a game as the Chiefs-Saints game that afternoon or a typical Sunday night matchup."

Eagles at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under 48.5

Why the line moved
Arizona got a much-needed 26-7 win at the New York Giants, pulling into the NFC's seventh and final playoff spot for the moment. Philadelphia, with rookie QB Jalen Hurts starting, entered its game against New Orleans as a 7.5-point home 'dog and exited with a 24-21 outright upset.

The Cardinals opened -5.5 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Chiefs at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints +3.5, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved
Patrick Mahomes had an errant game against Miami, throwing three interceptions Sunday. But after falling behind 10-0, Kansas City scored 30 consecutive points and hung on for a 33-27 road win. That's more than New Orleans could say after its nine-game SU win streak and five-game ATS run surprisingly ended in a 24-21 loss at Philadelphia.

"We opened the Chiefs -3.5 and were quickly bet up to -4," Murray said. "This will be the biggest-handle game of Week 15. The public will be squarely on the Chiefs, especially after seeing the Saints lose today in Philadelphia."

49ers at Cowboys Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Dallas halted a 1-6 SU skid (2-5 ATS) by coasting past host Cincinnati 30-7 in Week 14. San Francisco became Washington's latest victim, losing 23-15 in the Niners' short-term home at the Arizona Cardinals' stadium.

"We had this game at pick’em, and we took a bet on the 49ers right away. We are at San Francisco -1 now," Murray said Sunday evening, a couple of hours before the Niners stretched to -2 on more sharp action at The SuperBook. "San Francisco is a very depleted team, and it showed today, but Dallas has plenty of problems of its own. Good move by the NFL flexing this game out of Sunday night. I don't think it’ll be a high-volume game."

Steelers at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +12, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati, just trying to ride out this season after losing rookie QB Joe Burrow, was no match for Dallas in a 30-7 home loss Sunday. Pittsburgh got out of the gate this season 11-0, but has now lost two in a row after a 26-15 setback at Buffalo in the Week 14 Sunday nighter.

Still, it was easy for The SuperBook to make the Steelers double-digit favorites at -12 in the Week 15 Monday night game. The game came off the board during the Steelers-Bills tilt and will go back on the board Monday morning.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 15: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Indianapolis Colts offense has picked up the pace, making them one of the top two-way teams in the NFL heading into the home stretch of the season. Books have the Colts as 7-point home chalk versus Houston in Week 15.

When we started this crazy train called the 2020 NFL season, Week 15 was a stop on the schedule we weren’t quite sure we’d make it to. And while the track has bent a few times due to COVID-19 outbreaks, we have officially hit the home stretch.

Regardless of what’s happened along the way – and there’s been plenty – the best NFL betting strategy way back in Week 1 remains the best approach for the Week 15 odds: get the best of the number. To do so, you’ve got to time your NFL picks perfectly.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and the best to bet later.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7): Bet Now

The Colts dismantled the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14, cruising to a 44-27 victory as 2.5-point road faves in Sin City. Indianapolis’ offense is starting to match strides with its defense (averaging 32.5 points over its last four outings), which is a scary thought for the rest of the AFC.

Oddsmakers pegged the Colts as low as 6-point home chalk on last week’s lookahead lines, but after running over the Raiders and the Texans’ 36-7 tumble in Chicago, Indy officially opened at -7 and this line has already jumped to -7.5 at some sharper books.

The Colts are 9-4 SU and tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South. And with the Titans hosting downtrodden Detroit in Week 15, this homestand versus Houston is a must-win matchup for Frank Reich’s squad. Indianapolis beat the Texans 26-20 in Houston two weeks ago, covering as 3.5-point road chalk, and won’t be sitting at a touchdown much longer for Sunday's clash. Get the Colts at -7 while you can.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+4): Bet Later

This spread has already made some serious moves, so if you’re leaning toward New Orleans you might as well wait it out. Books posted Kansas City as low as a 3-point road favorite and that field-goal spread didn’t last long, with money on the visitor powering this spread through the key number to -3.5 and eventually landing on -4 as of Sunday night.

Granted, the Chiefs didn’t look great in their win over the Miami Dolphins, first spotting the Fins 10 points out of the gates then blowing a 30-10 lead, to the dismay of K.C. bettors laying -7.5. The Chiefs allowed 17 points in the fourth quarter and squeezed out a 33-27 victory at Hard Rock Stadium. But at least they didn’t lose to the Eagles.

Nothing piles on the points like losing to a lowly NFC East team, as well as a rookie quarterback making his first start. The Saints played a sloppy game in Philadelphia and fell 24-21 as 7.5-point road faves. New Orleans was hoping to have Drew Brees back for this potential Super Bowl preview, but it doesn’t look like the veteran gunslinger is healthy enough. That’s too bad, because this Taysom Hill-lead offense has looked flat the past two weeks and isn’t ready for a shootout with Patrick Mahomes & Co.

With the spread at K.C. -4, it won’t take much more action to move this line and move it quickly. Bookmakers are hasty to adjust through dead numbers (margins of victory that don’t occur often) and if the public piles on the Chiefs, I could see this sitting -5 or maybe even -5.5 by gameday. If you like NOLA, hold off and see how high this will go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Under 51.5): Bet Now

Neither offense is setting the scoreboard ablaze the past month, with the Tampa Toms averaging less than 25 points over the past three outings and Matt Ryan and the Falcons floundering for scores of nine, 16 and 17 points in three of their past four contests.

But, on the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have held more than their own. The Buccaneers defense has limited foes to only 22.6 points per game on the season while Atlanta has flexed its defensive muscles since canning Dan Quinn in mid-October, giving up an average of just over 20 points per game over its last eight appearances.

These NFC South rivals have yet to play each other in 2020, with Sunday marking the first of two meetings in the final three weeks of the schedule. This Over/Under opened 51.5 and the vig on the Under is starting to climb to -115 at most books, with select markets already dropping to 51 points. If you plan to plunder the Under, get all the points you can now.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Over 47): Bet Later

The total for this NFC North contest opened at 47 points and is already ticking downward with the number getting as low as 46 at some books Sunday night. Truthfully, this is a tough total to tackle in Week 15 with the Bears' production about as easy to plot as a drunken stumble home from the bar (if bars were still a thing. Thanks COVID... you dick).

Chicago unleashed 36 points on Houston in Week 14, a week removed from a 30-point showing against Detroit. In fact, over the past three games, the Bears have scored more points (91) than they did in the previous five games combined (86), including a 19-13 loss to Minnesota that stayed Under 44.5 points in Week 10. Glad to see that Nick Foles money going to good use. Yeesh.

The Vikings were tripped up in Tampa this past Sunday, starting out strong but watching kicker Dan Bailey botch kick after kick, which sucked all the energy out of the Minnesota offense. The Vikes are in dire need of a victory to stay in the postseason picture and score plenty of points on the fast indoor turf of U.S. Bank Stadium (29.1 points per home game). The Over/Under trends between these divisional foes scream Under (3-6 O/U last nine meetings) but if you’re into bucking the trends and taking the Over, be patient and see if this dips below 46 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 15
Matt Blunt

Week 15 NFL Betting Angles

Fifteen weeks into the NFL season and I'm getting excited for this regular season to conclude, if for no other reason then it's getting harder and harder to find significant and actionable patterns in all the raw data each week to craft this piece.

Streaks and runs that I've brought up in the recent past all eventually come to an end – fading the highest-scoring team over their past three games and backing the lowest-scoring team in their past three games went 0-2 ATS on Sunday (fade Tennessee, back Cincinnati) – which was to be expected from someone like me who believes riding streaks in this industry is flawed to begin with.

Those same two teams – Tennessee and Cincinnati – enter Week 15 in those same roles (fade Tennessee, play on Cincinnati) in the PPG over the last three situations.

But riding streaks is still a popular way to approach handicapping games, so this week's piece is for all the streak chasers out there that may prefer to use this year's data only.

It's actionable enough for this week for a few specific games, but as always, should only be used as support – if they so choose - for one's overall argument in why to back a team.

The following information also suggests the limitations there are with riding streaks from a pure numbers standpoint in oddsmakers adjusting spreads (and totals), so keep that in mind as well.

Hopefully I can continue to find the patterns in the raw data these next two weeks, but for Week 15, let's go with this:

Who's Hot

-- The Philadelphia Eagles have never won two straight games ATS in 2020
-- The New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have not lost two straight games ATS in 2020

Thanks to the Dolphins late comeback and squeaking through the back door against Kansas City on Sunday, they actually aren't applicable in Week 15, but after the Eagles won and covered against New Orleans, and the Giants lost both SU and ATS to Arizona, we've now got those two NFC East teams in roles of fade and play on in Week 15.

Fading the Eagles means that backing the Arizona Cardinals – the team to just beat NYG – as favorites of around a TD currently would make the card.

Who Could You Follow in Week 15?

New York Giants
Arizona Cardinals

Based on what we've seen last, going against the underdog Eagles will be tough for some to stomach given they looked like a team that was completely rejuvenated with the quarterback switch they made handing things over to rookie Jalen Hurts.

Hurts and the Eagles offense did a lot of things that worked against one of the league's top defenses on Sunday, and now they get to face a Cardinals team that's got a defense that's a huge step back (statistically) then what the Eagles saw from New Orleans.

Interestingly enough, another Hurts start this week pits the last two Oklahoma Sooners QB's against one another, the second time in their young careers that Hurts and Kyler Murray will share a field with one another.

The first came back in the 2018 College Football Playoff semifinal game between Oklahoma and Alabama, when Hurts was the backup QB for Alabama in a 45-34 win by the Crimson Tide.

Hurts will throw more than one pass attempt this time around though, but at the same time, you can't take a whole lot away from Arizona and how thoroughly they dominated the Giants. That same New York team that is 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) and probably should have swept the season series with Philadelphia.

The Eagles are a different team now with the QB switch, but it's still a rookie QB making his first career road start, historically a bad situation for backing said rookies.

But as has been the case in 2020, rookie QB's making their first road start has completely flipped (4-0 ATS) - thanks to no screaming fans - as there has been a 35-30 loss (but ATS win) for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati @ Cleveland, a 34-31 SU win (and ATS win) for Tua Tagovailoa and Miami @ this same Arizona Cardinals team, a 38-31 SU loss (but ATS win) for Justin Herbert and LAC @ Tampa Bay, and a 24-20 SU loss (but ATS win) for Jake Luton and Jacksonville vs Green Bay.

So pick which streak you want to side with there.

Backing the New York Giants this week means that you'll be taking points with them at home vs Cleveland on Sunday Night Football, a line that will undoubtedly react to whatever the Browns performance on Monday Night Football turns out to be. As of this writing – three hours before MNF – New York is catching +3.5 most places as the home 'dog there, a number that likely won't drop too much further should Cleveland put up a stinker vs Baltimore, but one that will surely grow should the Browns go out and win convincingly on MNF.

It's the second straight week in this piece that the suggestion has been to go against Cleveland, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The Cleveland Browns as a “hunted” team is such a new concept to wrap your head around this year after so many years of futility, and yet, even in situations that have nothing to directly do with Cleveland, we can still find positive situations for their opponent to suggest fading Cleveland like the popular choice has been for years. That's got to feel like par for the course for Browns fans.

My apologies.


Who's Not

No NFL team this year has had an ATS winning streak of longer than 5 games

So you want to subscribe to riding ATS streaks huh?

Well, what if I told you that only 10 of the 32 teams this year have had losing ATS streaks of more than three games?

What about winning ATS streaks of more than three games only happening for 10 of the 32 NFL teams as well?

Sure, every game and team should be taken under their own consideration and merits, but this year in the NFL, good and bad ATS runs seem to get capped out at three games. The worst of those was Dallas starting 0-8 ATS, with a six-game losing streak against the number for the L.A. Chargers and N.Y. Jets coming in a close 2nd.

The other two teams to go on five-game losing ATS runs – Arizona and Jacksonville – each covered the number the following week (Arizona was this past week vs Giants), and interestingly enough, it's the Kansas City Chiefs who are next up in Week 15 having dropped their last five against the number.

Who Could You Fade in Week 15?

Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs visit New Orleans on SNF which you know will be hyped up in those awful ways I mentioned last week, but this is not about finding an outside-of-the-box reason to back a KC team that looks to be the best in football.

It's about fading the one team that comes into Week 15 on a 5-0 ATS run currently; the Buffalo Bills.

Only WWE commissioner Vince McMahon has a bigger annual budget for breakable tables than "Bills Mafia" members do, although that could have changed with how flush Bills backers bankrolls are right now having gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS their last five games, the lone loss coming on Kyler Murray's walk-off Hail Mary a few weeks back in the desert.

Buffalo's got a quicker turnaround this week with a Saturday date in Denver against the Broncos, and off their SNF win over Pittsburgh, an opening number of Buffalo -5.5 has already jumped a full point. Buffalo is also the 4th NFL team this year to have a shot at covering the spread in six consecutive games, with Pittsburgh (-14 chalk vs Dallas), Miami (-4 chalk vs Denver), and New Orleans (-7.5 chalk vs Philadelphia) all failing in their previous bids to cover six in a row.

Finally, it's interesting to see the Denver Broncos already responsible for stopping one of those previous five-game ATS streaks as a home underdog against another AFC East franchise.

Hard not to have the saying “history always repeats itself” come to mind there. Four of the five Bills games during this streak have had them close in the +/- 3 range, with the home game against the Chargers seeing Buffalo close at -4.5.

So how many points is too many here?

One more note, Washington enters Week 15 on a four-game ATS run, so keep an eye on what they do in Week 15 as home dogs vs Seattle.

Another ATS victory there would put Washington in this fade role in Week 16 when they host Carolina.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Sunday, December 20

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HOUSTON (4 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 4) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (5 - 8) at TENNESSEE (9 - 4) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 152-192 ATS (-59.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 13) at LA RAMS (9 - 4) - 12/20/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (8 - 5) at ATLANTA (4 - 9) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 7) at MIAMI (8 - 5) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-215 ATS (+39.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-215 ATS (+39.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-52 ATS (+33.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 212-157 ATS (+39.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-95 ATS (+27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-61 ATS (+25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (9 - 4) at WASHINGTON (6 - 7) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (6 - 7) at MINNESOTA (6 - 7) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 58-88 ATS (-38.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 12) at BALTIMORE (7 - 5) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (9 - 3) at NY GIANTS (5 - 8) - 12/20/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 8 - 1) at ARIZONA (7 - 6) - 12/20/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (12 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 3) - 12/20/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 8) at DALLAS (4 - 9) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 21

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 2) at CINCINNATI (2 - 10 - 1) - 12/21/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 15

Trend Report

Sunday, December 20

Houston @ Indianapolis
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Houston

Detroit @ Tennessee
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Chicago @ Minnesota
Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Chicago's last 18 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games at home
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay

Seattle @ Washington
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Jacksonville @ Baltimore
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

New England @ Miami
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

San Francisco @ Dallas
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

NY Jets @ LA Rams
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Philadelphia @ Arizona
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home

Kansas City @ New Orleans
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Cleveland @ NY Giants
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games


Monday, December 21

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

341HOUSTON -342 INDIANAPOLIS
HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

343CAROLINA -344 GREEN BAY
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

345BUFFALO -346 DENVER
DENVER is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

347DETROIT -348 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival since 1992.

349NY JETS -350 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

351TAMPA BAY -352 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG) since 1992.

353NEW ENGLAND -354 MIAMI
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

355SEATTLE -356 WASHINGTON
SEATTLE is 55-25 ATS (27.5 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

357CHICAGO -358 MINNESOTA
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 15 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Washington quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf and sat out the second half of a win over the 49ers. His Week 15 status is uncertain, and WFT quickly moved from +3.5 to +5 against Seattle.

NFL Week 14 wrapped up on time Monday night, and it's on to NFL Week 15 odds, with several betting factors already in play. That includes the typical injury information, including Washington potentially being without quarterback Alex Smith and running back Antonio Gibson.

Week 15 Injuries

Washington Football Team: Quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf in the first half of Washington's win over San Francisco and sat out the second half. His status is uncertain Sunday at home against Seattle, as is the status of running back Antonio Gibson (turf toe), who didn't play against the 49ers. The SuperBook opened WFT +3.5, and that number shot to +4.5 Sunday night and to +5 Monday morning. The total opened at 43 and ticked up to 43.5 Monday.

Carolina Panthers: Running back Christian McCaffrey couldn't make Week 14, but it looks as if he'll be on the field for a Saturday night game at Green Bay. McCaffrey was set to return from a shoulder injury last week, then suffered a thigh injury in practice. Carolina opened +9 at The SuperBook on Sunday evening and moved to +8.5 Monday morning.

Detroit Lions: Quarterback Matthew Stafford hurt his ribs late in a Week 14 home loss to Green Bay, and his status for a Week 15 Sunday tilt at Tennessee won't be determined until later in the week. As such, the Lions-Titans game is off the board Monday at The SuperBook.

Miami Dolphins: Wideouts DeVante Parker (leg) and Jakeem Grant (hamstring), and tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) all got hurt in Sunday's loss to Kansas City. As of Monday, the status for all three is uncertain, with Grant appearing the least likely to play in Sunday's home game against New England. The early line movement at The SuperBook helped reflect that, as the Dolphins opened -3 and dipped to -2.5 Sunday night. The total dropped 1.5 points by Monday afternoon, to 41.

Philadelphia Eagles: Philly has a cluster of injuries in the defensive backfield. Safety Rodney McLeod (torn ACL) is done for the year, and cornerbacks Darius Slay (concussion protocol) and Avonte Maddox (knee) are uncertain for Sunday's game at Arizona. The Eagles opened +5.5 at The SuperBook and were already up to +6.5 Monday.


Week 15 Weather

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: There's a 30 percent chance of snow early in the day, ahead of this Saturday night contest. The main issue noted in the early forecast will simply be that it's chilly during the game, with temperatures in the upper 20s and light winds of 5-10 mph.
Week 15 Consensus

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 15

Sunday’s games
Texans (4-9) @ Indianapolis (9-4)
— Texans are 2-5 SU on road this year, beating Lions/Jaguars.
— Houston are 0-8 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans had 20+ points at the half in four of last six games.
— Houston didn’t score a second half point in their last two games.
— Over is 4-2-1 in Houston’s road games this year.
— Texans are 0-3-1 ATS this season as road underdogs.

— Colts won six of their last eight games.
— Indy lost two of its last three home games.
— Colts are 7-0 when they score 28+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Indy is 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-3 TY.
— Seven of their last nine games went over the total.
— Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 79-23 in 2nd half.

— Colts (-3) beat Houston 26-20 two weeks ago; it was 24-20 at halftime
— Indy was +2 in turnovers, won field position by 10 years.
— Colts won six of last eight series games.
— Texas won three of last four visits to Indy.

Lions (5-8) @ Tennessee (9-4)
— Lions’ QB Stafford is banged up (ribs; check status)
— Chase Daniel (2-3 as starter in 11 years) is the backup QB.
— Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in six of its last seven games.
— Lions are 15-15 ATS in last 30 games as road underdogs, 3-2 TY.
— Detroit scored 27.7 ppg the last three weeks.
— Five of last seven Lion games went over the total.

— Tennessee won three of last four games, is tied for first in AFC South.
— Titans lost last two home games, giving up 34-41 points.
— Titans were +10 in turnovers the first five games, are minus-2 since.
— Last two weeks, Tennessee outscored opponents 42-10 in second half.
— Over is 8-3-1 in Titans’ last 12 games.
— Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.

— Tennessee won last five series games, last two 44-41 OT/16-15.
— Lions lost 24-19/44-41OT in visits to Nashville.

NJ Jets (0-13) @ Rams (9-4)
— Winless Jets are 4-9 ATS, covering four of last seven games.
— Jets allowed 30+ points in five of last six games.
— Jets have been outscored 97-44 in 2nd half of their last eight games.
— Jets are winless, but their turnover ratio is only minus-1.
— Jets are 9-21-2 ATS in last 32 games as road dogs, 1-5 TY.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

— Rams won four of their last five games.
— LA clinches a playoff spot with win or a tie here.
— LA has outscored opponents 164-82 in second half of games.
— Rams won five of six home games SU (4-2 ATS)
— Eight of LA’s last ten games stayed under the total.
— Rams are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.
— Rams had 15 takeaways in last seven games; had only six in first six games.

— Rams won eight of last ten series games.
— LA won last meeting 9-6, four years ago.
— Jets lost five of seven visits to LA/St Louis/Anaheim

Buccaneers (8-5) @ Atlanta (4-9)
— Buccaneers lost three of their last five games.
— Tampa Bay is 8-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Last four games, Bucs converted 25-50 third down plays.
— Bucs won last three road games, scoring 38.7 ppg.
— Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as road favorites.
— Last six games, Bucs were outscored 105-58 in first half.

— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta is 2-5 SU at home, beating Raiders/Denver.
— Atlanta led six of its last eight games at halftime.
— Last four games, Falcons allowed only 17.8 ppg.
— Atlanta is 3-4 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
— Eight of their last ten games stayed under the total.

— Atlanta won six of last seven series games.
— Average total in last eight series games: 58
— Teams split last six meetings played here.
— Falcons’ interim coach Morris was Bucs’ HC from 2009-11.
— These teams meet again in Week 17.

Patriots (6-7) @ Miami (8-5)
— New England won four of its last six games.
— Underdogs covered eight of last nine Patriot games.
— New England trailed at halftime in eight of its last ten games.
— Last six games, NE outscored opponents 70-37 in second half.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS in last ten games as home favorites, 2-2 TY.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.

— Dolphins won seven of their last nine games.
— Dolphins covered eight of their last nine games.
— Miami is 2-5 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
— Miami is 8-1-2 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins have 15 takeaways in last six games (+9)
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

— This is first time since 2013 (14 games) that Miami is favored over NE.
— Patriots (-6.5) beat Miami 21-11 in Foxboro in Week 1; NE ran ball for 217 yards.
— New England lost four of last six visits to South Beach.

Seahawks (9-4) @ Washington (6-7)
— Seattle won three of its last four games overall.
— Seahawks lost three of last four road games.
— Last four games, Seahawks outscored foes 58-18 in first half.
— Seattle is 8-3-4 ATS in last 15 games as home faves, 3-2 TY.
— Last five Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last six games.

— QB Smith (calf) is a ?? here; big drop-off between Smith and backup Haskins.
— Washington won/covered its last four games.
— Washington outscored last six opponents 108-30 in second half.
— Washington split its six home games SU this year.
— Washington is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
— Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Washington games.

— Teams split last eight series games (Seattle 3-0 in playoff games)
— Seattle won 24-14/27-17 in last two visits here (last one in 2014)

Bears (6-7) @ Minnesota (6-7)
— Bears snapped their six-game losing skid last week.
— Last three games, Chicago scored 30.3 ppg.
— Bears lost last three road games, by 14-7-16 points.
— Bears are 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road dog, 3-3 TY.
— Chicago has only six takeaways in its last seven games (-5).
— Under is 7-3 in Bears’ last ten games.

— Vikings won five of seven games; they’re game out of playoffs.
— Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
— Vikings won field position in only one game so far this year.
— Minnesota is 3-4 SU at home, winning by 14-1-3 points.
— Minnesota is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Six of seven Viking home games went over the total.

— Vikings (-2.5) beat Chicago 19-13 in Chicago in Week 10, outgaining Bears 385-149.
— Minnesota was 8-15 on 3rd down, Chicago 2-11.
— Bears won four of last five series games, winning 24-10/21-19 in last two visits here.

Jaguars (1-12) @ Baltimore (8-5)
— Jaguars lost their last 12 games, but covered four of last six.
— Four of their last six losses were by 4 or fewer points.
— Last three weeks, Jacksonville gave up 200.3 rushing yards/game.
— Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog, 3-3 TY.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Minshew is back as starting QB; he threw for 178 yards in relief LW.

— Yet another short week for the Ravens, who played Monday.
— Baltimore won last two games, scoring 34-47 points.
— Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
— Ravens are 11-18 ATS in last 29 games as home favorites, 3-3 TY.
— Over is 3-1 in Baltimore’s last four games.
— Emotional game Monday night; Ravens are tied with Miami for #7-seed.

— Jaguars won four of last seven series games, but lost six of last seven visits here.
— Teams last met here in 2015.

Eagles (4-8-1) Arizona (7-6)
— Rookie QB Hurts gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Eagles lost four of last five games; they’re 1-5 SU on road.
— Philly is 2-6-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as road dogs, 1-2 TY.
— Eight of last 11 Philly games stayed under the total.

— Arizona lost four of their last six games SU.
— Cardinals covered once in their last six games.
— Arizona has a one-game lead for the #7-seed (last playoff spot)
— Redbirds are 6-12 ATS in last 18 games as home favorites, 1-3 TY.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Cardinal games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 13 games.

— Arizona won five of last seven series games.
— Eagles lost last four visits here; their last win in Arizona was in 2002.

Chiefs (12-1) @ New Orleans (10-3)
— Chiefs won their last eight games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
— Kansas City won all seven of its road games this year (3-4 ATS)
— Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite, 2-4 TY.
— Last five games, Kansas City allowed 25.8 ppg
— Chiefs averaged at least 7.6 ypa in each of its last six games.
— Kansas City have one-game lead for #1-seed in AFC.

— New Orleans had its 8-game win streak snapped last week.
— Saints covered five of their last six games.
— Saints allowed four TD’s on opponents’ last 44 drives.
— Hill is expected to be at QB again; Brees is closer to playing, though.
— Saints are 15-22 ATS in last 37 games as a road favorite, 2-4 TY.
— Five of last six New Orleans games stayed under the total.

— Chiefs won four of last six series games, winning 27-24/27-21 in last two
— Kansas City won four of six visits to New Orleans, not counting Super Bowl IV.

49ers (5-8) @ Dallas (4-9)
— 49ers lost five of their last six games SU.
— SF is 5-15 SU in last 20 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 33.1 ppg in their losses.
— Last six games, SF was outscored 84-41 in first half.
— 49ers are 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a favorite away from home.
— Three of their last four games went under the total.

— Dallas is 0-3 ATS this year in game following a win.
— Cowboys lost six of their last eight games overall.
— Dallas was leading at halftime in four of last six games.
— Cowboys are 3-10 ATS this year; last week was their first win by more than 3 points.
— Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.
— Dallas is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as home underdogs, 1-1 TY.

— Dallas won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last four meetings here, last of which was in 2014.

Browns (10-3) @ NJ Giants (5-8)
— Cleveland won four of last five games, scoring 33 ppg in last four.
— Monday was first game Browns lost when they scored more than 7 points.
— Last two games, Cleveland allowed 28-26 points in second half.
— Cleveland won four of six road games SU.
— Browns are 1-6 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— Over is 8-4 in their last dozen games.
— Short week after an emotional loss for Browns Monday

— Giants won four of their last five games, covered eight of last ten.
— Giants are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS outside their division.
— Seven of Giants’ last nine games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Big Blue is 0-5 SU when they run ball for less than 100 yards.
— Giants are 3-13 ATS in last 16 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

— Giants won four of five series games.
— Browns lost 27-10/41-27 in two series games played here.

Monday’s game
Steelers (11-2) @ Cincinnati (2-10-1)
— Steelers lost their last two games, after an 11-0 start.
— Last three games, Steelers scored only 17 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is 3-6-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
— Steelers are +11 in turnovers this season, +6 in last six games.
— Last five weeks, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 72-29 in first half of games

— Bengals lost last five games by a combined 124-50.
— Cincinnati has only five TD’s on its last 53 drives.
— Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS this season as a home underdog.
— Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last eight games.
— Cincy allowed 16+ points in 2nd half, in each of its last eight games.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Pitt (-6.5) beat Bengals 36-10 in Week 10, throwing for 333 yards.
— Bengals were 0-13 on third down in first meeting.
— Steelers won last 11 series games, last seven visits to Cincinnati.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Sunday, Dec. 20

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS

Indy has covered only 1 of last 4 at Lucas Oil.
Colts, however, have won and covered last five meetings.

Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on series trends.

DETROIT at TENNESSEE
Titans now “over” 9-3 last 12 in 2020 and “over” 20-6 since Tannehill took over at QB in mid 2019.
Lions “over” 8-4-1 this season.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA
Series has gone “over” last four and 7 of last 8 meetings.
Bucs “over” 18-10-1 for Arians since LY.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Dolphins have won 7 and covered 8 of last 8 this season, and looking back to early 2019 are now 19-6 vs. line last 25 for Flores.
Miami also “under” 8-5 in 2020, Belichick “under” 9-4 after Rams game.
Patriots 2-5 vs. spread away TY.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at DALLAS
Cowboys got rare win last week at Cincy but still miserable 3-10 vs. line TY.
Niners 4-2 vs. spread on road in 2020, now 10-4 vs. spread as visitor since LY.

Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON
WFT has won and covered last four in 2020, also “under” 6-2-1 last nine in 2020.
Hawks no covers 4 of last 6 or 6 of last 9 in 2020.
Seattle also “under” 5-0 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Football Team and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA
Bears broke 6-game SU skid last week vs. Texans, but still just 1-4 vs. line last five TY.
“Unders” 5-2 last seven meetings including Nov. 16 at Soldier Field on a Monday.
Chicago on 25-11 “under” run since late 2018.
Vikes, however, “over” 8-4-1 this season, though just 2-5 vs. spread at US Bank.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BALTIMORE
Jags no outright wins since opening week but have covered 4 of last 6 TY.
Jags also 6-3 “under” last nine.
Ravens 3-3 vs. line at home TY, and 1-1-1 laying DD.

Tech Edge: Slight to “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

N.Y. JETS at L.A. RAMS
Jets still winless SU but have covered 4 of last 7 TY.
Rams 0-1 as DD chalk TY, though McVay had covered previous six in role since 2017.
Rams “under” 9-4 in 2020 after Patriots game.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA
Both broke recent skids last week, as Cards had failed to cover previous five.
Eagles just 4-9 vs. line previous 13, before each got wins and covers last week.
Philly “under” 6-1 last seven TY, Cards “under” 8-4-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Super Bowl preview? Chiefs still winning outright lately but no covers last five in 2020.
Saints “under” 5-1 last six in 2020.
NO 5-1 SU and vs. line last six this season.

Tech Edge: Saints and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at N.Y. GIANTS
G-Men have won four of last five outright and 7-2-1 last ten vs. spread in 2020.
NY “under” 9-3-1 this season.
Into Ravens on Monday, Brownies had only covered 1 of 6 prior to win at Titans last week.

Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.


Monday, Dec. 21

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
Steel 10-0 SU, 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten reg season meetings vs. Cincy.
“Unders” last five and 7-1-1 last eight meetings.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Carolina at Green Bay

-- The Packers are 10-0 ATS (6.80 ppg) since Dec 09, 2018 as a favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Detroit at Tennessee

-- The Titans are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.42 ppg) since Oct 17, 2004 as a favorite coming off a road win where they gained at least 22 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Seattle at Washington

-- The Seahawks are 9-0-1 OU (11.75 ppg) since Dec 30, 2018 coming off a game where Russell Wilson threw at least three touchdown passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Atlanta

-- The Buccaneers are 11-0 OU (14.82 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 as a favorite coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points fewer than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: New England at Miami

-- The Patriots are 0-13 OU (-9.27 ppg) since Dec 04, 2016 coming off a road game that went under the total by at least six points

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Buffalo at Denver

-- The Broncos are 0-11 OU (-10.18 ppg) since Dec 10, 2017 as a dog coming off a road game where they allowed at least 24 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Sunday, December 20

Creighton @ UConn
Creighton (5-2, 1-1)
— ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #292
— Experience: #53
— Continuity: #17
— Bluejays split two road games, winning at St John’s, losing by 1 at Kansas.
— Creighton is 1-2 in top 100 games; their best win is over #91 St John’s.
— Bluejays have #3 eFG% in country; they’re shooting 39.8% on arc.

UConn (3-0)
— ranked #45 by KenPom
— Tempo: #319
— Experience: #172
— Continuity: #129
— This is UConn’s first game in 17 days.
— Huskies beat USC by 3, pounded on couple of stiffs.
— UConn is rebounding 45.9% of its own missed shots (32).

— UConn is back in Big East this year; they haven’t played Creighton recently.

Illinois @ Rutgers
Illinois (5-2, 1-0)
— ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #41
— Experience: #218
— Continuity: #45
— Illinois split its four top 100 games.
— Illini allowed 80+ points in its losses, to Baylor/Missouri.
— Illinois is shooting 43.2% on arc (#7).

Rutgers (5-0, 1-0)
— ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #168
— Experience: #204
— Continuity: #69
— Rutgers is giving up only 64.6 ppg.
— Scarlet Knights have two top 100 wins (Syracuse/Maryland)
— Rutgers is shooting only 57.3% on foul line (#319).

— Illinois won four of last five series games.

Oklahoma State @ Texas
Oklahoma State (6-1, 0-1)
— ranked #48 by KenPom
— Tempo: #33
— Experience: #300
— Continuity: #276
— OSU has three road wins, at Marquette, Wichita, Tex-Arlington.
— Cowboys lost their Big X opener, at home to TCU.
— OSU’s last three games were decided by total of 9 points.

Texas (6-1)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #245
— Experience: #108
— Continuity: #9
— Texas is 3-1 in top 100 games, losing by 4 to Villanova.
— Longhorns have #12 eFG% defense in country.
— To this point, Texas has played #71 schedule in country.

— These teams split last eight meetings (home teams 6-2)

Marquette @ Xavier
Marquette (5-3, 1-1)
— ranked #40 by KenPom
— Tempo: #261
— Experience: #180
— Continuity: #163
— Marquette lost two of its last three games.
— Golden Eagles are 2-3 in top 100 games, beating Wisconsin/Creighton.
— Marquette is 1-1 in true road games, winning by 5 at Creighton, losing by 9 at UCLA.

Xavier (7-0)
— ranked #50 by KenPom
— Tempo: #264
— Experience: #119
— Continuity: #264
— Xavier has three top 100 wins (Toledo, Cincinnati, Oklahoma)
— Musketeers haven’t played in 11 days.
— Xavier gets good shots; their eFG% is #9 in country.

— Marquette won last four series games, winning last meeting in double OT.

Weber State @ Portland State
Weber State (3-1, 1-0)
— ranked #253 by KenPom
— Tempo: #109
— Experience: #59
— Continuity: #282
— Weber split two D-I games, hammering Portland St yesterday.
— Wildcats are turning ball over 21.7% of time (#242).
— Weber played eight guys 16:00+ yesterday; no one played 30:00.

Portland State (4-2, 0-1)
— ranked #318 by KenPom
— Tempo: #7
— Experience: #45
— Continuity: #317
— Vikings are 0-3 vs D-I teams, losing by 15-9-28 points,
— Portland State is shooting 21.3% on arc (#321)
— Vikings were down 17 at half Saturday; no one played more than 26:00.

— Weber hammered Portland State 94-66 yesterday (48-31 at half)
— Vikings beat Weber State twice LY, by 19-9 points.

Providence @ Seton Hall
Providence (4-2)
— ranked #63 by KenPom
— Tempo: #299
— Experience: #146
— Continuity: #203
— Providence hasn’t played in 11 days.
— Friars protect ball well, but are shooting 24.3% on arc (#308)
— Providence split four top 100 games, beating Davidson, TCU.

Seton Hall (5-3, 2-0)
— ranked #46 by KenPom
— Tempo: #236
— Experience: #20
— Continuity: #114
— Seton Hall won its last four games, after a 1-3 start.
— Pirates allowed 65.5 ppg in winning first two Big East games.
— To this point, Seton Hall has played schedule #37.

— Seton Hall won five of last seven series games.
— Home side won last four series meetings.

Air Force @ Nevada
Air Force (2-3, 0-1)
— ranked #266 by KenPom
— Tempo: #356
— Experience: #79
— Continuity: #212
— Falcons’ two wins are over teams ranked #284/#301
— Air Force is running Princeton offense (#356 pace)
— Air Force lost 74-57 here Friday (41-39 at half).

Nevada (6-2, 1-0)
— ranked #125 by KenPom
— Tempo: #86
— Experience: #312
— Continuity: #277
— Nevada gave up 85-87 points in their two losses.
— Wolf Pack is turning ball over 20.7% of time (#212)
— Nevada shot 61.5% inside arc, turned ball over 19 times Friday.

— Nevada won last 11 series games, last seven by 11+ points.

Georgetown @ St John’s
Georgetown (3-3, 1-1)
— ranked #100 by KenPom
— Tempo: #85
— Experience: #19
— Continuity: #237
— Hoyas are 1-2 in top 100 games, beating Johnnies in OT last Sunday
— This is Georgetown’s first game away from home.
— Georgetown is turning ball over 22.9% of time (#274)

St John’s (5-4, 0-3)
— ranked #91 by KenPom
— Tempo: #17
— Experience: #257
— Continuity: #201
— Red Storm lost last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Johnnies are 0-4 vs top 100 teams; Georgetown is #100.
— St John’s is forcing turnovers 24.3% of time (#34).

— St John’s led by 7 with 2:37 left in last Sunday’s meeting, lost in OT.
— Georgetown won four of last five series games.

Michigan State @ Northwestern
Michigan State (6-0)
— ranked #20 by KenPom
— Tempo: #34
— Experience: #168
— Continuity: #63
— Spartans won their only road game by 6 at Duke.
— MSU has top 100 wins over Duke, Notre Dame.
— Spartans are #63 in continuity; their bench plays minutes #19.

Northwestern (3-1)
— ranked #65 by KenPom
— Tempo: #84
— Experience: #249
— Continuity: #55
— Wildcats won two of three games vs schedule #325.
— Northwestern lost by point at home to Pittsburgh.
— Wildcats beat two Bottom 10 teams and an NAIA squad.

— Michigan State won last 12 series games; their last two wins here were by 5-5 points.

Grand Canyon vs San Francisco (@ Las Vegas)
Grand Canyon (4-1)
— ranked #146 by KenPom
— Tempo: #304
— Experience: #37
— Continuity: #192
— Antelopes’ only loss was by point to Arizona State.
— Grand Canyon beat Nevada; they’ve played schedule #301.
— Antelopes are turning ball over 21.3% of time (#230)

San Francisco (5-4)
— ranked #70 by KenPom
— Tempo: #145
— Experience: #82
— Continuity: #156
— Dons won four of six games vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— USF is 4-0 when it scores 72+ points, 1-4 when it doesn’t.
— Erratic team; they beat Virginia, lost to Mass-Lowell.

Saint Louis @ Minnesota
Saint Louis (6-0)
— ranked #26 by KenPom
— Tempo: #244
— Experience: #96
— Continuity: #19
— Saint Louis has top 100 wins, over LSU/NC State.
— This is Billikens’ first game away from home.
— Saint Louis is shooting 44.6% on arc (#3)

Minnesota (6-1)
— ranked #65 by KenPom
— Tempo: #353
— Experience: #120
— Continuity: #161
— Gophers just lost their Big 14 opener by 27 at Illinois.
— Minnesota has played schedule #216; their best win is over #103 Boston College
— Gophers are forcing turnovers 22.1% of time (#81).

Washington vs Colorado (@ Las Vegas)
Washington (1-5, 0-2)
— ranked #108 by KenPom
— Tempo: #179
— Experience: #102
— Continuity: #199
— Washington already has losses to Cal-Riverside, Montana.
— Huskies’ only win was 73-41 over #297 Seattle.
— Washington is struggling on offense; their eFG% is #283.

Colorado (4-1)
— ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #212
— Experience: #67
— Continuity: #133
— Colorado’s only loss was 56-47 at Tennessee.
— Buffs scored 76+ points in all four of their wins.
— Dawgs have forced turnovers 23.4% of time (#49)

— Washington won five of last six series games; they lost 76-62 to Colorado LY.

Robert Morris @ Marshall
Robert Morris (1-1)
— ranked #256 by KenPom
— Tempo: #277
— Experience: #126
— Continuity: #98
— Colonials lost by 20 at home to Bowling Green Friday.
— Robert Morris won its opener over an NAIA team.
— Colonials are jumping up in class from NEC to Horizon.

Marshall (4-1)
— ranked #83 by KenPom
— Tempo: #21
— Experience: #88
— Continuity: #4
— Marshall won its two games vs teams outside top 200, by 14-12 points.
— Marshall lost its last game in overtime, to Toledo.
— Thundering Herd plays fast tempo; 40.9% of their shots are 3’s

[Can'tPickAWinner]

701CREIGHTON -702 CONNECTICUT
CREIGHTON is 18-5 ATS (12.5 Units) vs. teams who are called for 3+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1997.

703ILLINOIS -704 RUTGERS
ILLINOIS are 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) after a game where they covered the spread in the last 3 seasons.

705WRIGHT ST -706 DETROIT
WRIGHT ST is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game in the last 3 seasons.

707OKLAHOMA ST -708 TEXAS
TEXAS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

709ORAL ROBERTS -710 ARKANSAS
ARKANSAS are 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

711MARQUETTE -712 XAVIER
XAVIER is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

715WI-MILWAUKEE -716 WI-GREEN BAY
WI-MILWAUKEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days in the last 3 seasons.

719CHICAGO ST -720 DRAKE
CHICAGO ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a road dog of >=30.5 in the last 3 seasons.

723PROVIDENCE -724 SETON HALL
SETON HALL is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

725OAKLAND -726 IL-CHICAGO
OAKLAND is 66-41 ATS (20.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
Sports Services
Free Sports Picks


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
NFL – Giants +6.5


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
NFL – Washington +6.5


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
NFL – Texans +7.5


4.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
NFL – Titans -10


5.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
NFL – Washington +6.5


6.
Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NFL – Ravens -13


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
NFL – Cowboys over 45


8.
Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
NFL – Eagles +6.5


9.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
NFL – Giants +6.5


10.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
NFL – Washington over 44


11.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
NFL – Jets +17


12.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
NFL – Buccaneers -6.5


13.
SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NFL – Patriots +1.5


14.
East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NFL – Eagles +6.5


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
NFL – Cowboys over 45


16.
Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
NFL – Chiefs -3


17.
Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
NFL – Vikings under 46.5


18.
VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
NFL – Titans -10


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
NFL – Texans +7.5


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NFL – Washington +6.5


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
NFL – Chiefs -3


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
NFL – Ravens -13


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
NFL – Jets +17


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
NFL – Patriots +1.5


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NFL – Cowboys +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Bucs vs Falcons
Play on: Bucs -6½ -107 at pinnacle

Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Tampa Bay Bucs -6.5
The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are fresh right now as they just had their bye week two weeks ago. They came out of their bye and won and covered in a 26-14 victory over the Vikings. And now they should take care of the Atlanta Falcons on the road Sunday. This is a Falcons team that has lost three of their last four games with their only win over the Raiders. Matt Ryan threw three interceptions in a loss to the Chargers last week and looks like he has lost interest. And now Ryan is without his favorite weapon in WR Julio Jones. The Falcons just won't have the firepower to keep up with Tom Brady and the Bucs, who are scoring 28.5 PPG this season. The Falcons have been held to 17 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. And the Bucs have the way better defense in this matchup. They give up just 5.4 YPP while the Falcons allow 6.2 YPP. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as road favorites. Take Tampa Bay.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ricky Tran Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Seahawks vs Washington Football Team
Play on: Washington Football Team +6½ -105 at Bovada

Ricky's Free play on Washington.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- The Football Team is 5-1 ATS in it's last six games as an underdog.
- The Football Team is 8-2 ATS in it's last 10 games following a straight up win.
- The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
Verdict: Washington's pass defense has been outstanding this season, and that could keep them in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Texans vs Colts
Play on: Colts -7 -114 at Draft Kings

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Indianapolis Colts -7
The Indianapolis Colts are trying to win a division title at 9-4 this season. They are tied with the Tennessee Titans for first place in the AFC South. So motivation won't be an issue for them as they are coming off a 44-27 win at Las Vegas. Motivation is an issue for the 4-9 Texans. They looked to have packed it in last week in their 7-36 loss at Chicago. It didn't help that they were missing all of their key weapons on offense. And while they should get Brandon Cooks back this week, I don't think it is going to matter. The Colts can name their score against this awful Houston defense that gave up over 400 yards to a bad Bears offense last week. The Texans give up 27.6 points and 406.8 yards per game on the season. The Colts only give up 23.1 points and 327.1 yards per game and also have the better offense. They should win this game by more than a touchdown. The Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Indianapolis is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Give me the Colts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Patriots vs Dolphins
Play on: Patriots +1½ -110 at Bovada

PICK - New England Patriots +1.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 353
The betting public is absolutely pounding the Dolphins laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots. Almost 70% of the action is on Miami and yet this line has dropped from -2.5 to -1.5 over the week. That alone is enough reason to take New England, but I believe there's a much bigger factor in play that makes the Patriots the sharp play on Sunday.
That's the matchup between Miami rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and New England head coach Bill Belichick. History tells us to fade the quarterback in this situation. Since 2000 Belichick and the Patriots are 21-5 when facing a rookie signal caller and have not lost a game to a rookie since 2013.
This situation just came up a few weeks ago when New England went to LA to face the Chargers and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. It didn't go well for Herbert, as he completed just 49.1% of his attempts, while throwing for a mere 209 yards and had multiple picks for only the second time all season. The Patriots won the game 45-0.
I keep going back and forth on Tua. There's times he looks like he doesn't belong and times it feels like he's going to develop into a legit starter. I just think with the lack of run game that Miami has and all the injuries they are dealing with at the skill positions, this meeting does not setup well for him.
Another thing here is the Patriots as a team have been thrown under the bus. Even though they are mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, the media has made it seem like they go no shot. A Belichick coached team is never going to throw in the towel early and I like that they are going to come into this game with the "us against the world" mentality. Give me New England +1.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | 49ers vs Cowboys
Play on: 49ers -155 at Draft Kings

This is a Free play on the 49ers.
San Francisco lost an ugly game against Washington last week, while the Cowboys won big at Cincinnati. Both of those games saw luck play a big factor. The Niners turned the ball over three times, and allowed the Redskins to score four defensive/special teams TDs. The Bengals turned the ball over three times in their loss to the Cowboys, and QB Brandon Allen was injured in the second half. The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. I'll take the defending NFC Champs to get a W in Big D.
GL,
Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | 49ers vs Cowboys
Play on: 49ers -3 -117 at pinnacle

#367 ASA FREE PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These two have similar record with San Fran coming in at 5-8 and Dallas at 4-9. Even with their records standing only 1 game apart, San Fran is just -11 this season in point differential and Dallas is -102. Also, the Niners have played the toughest schedule thus far in the NFL while Dallas has played the 28th most difficult. That’s to be expected with the Cowboys in the ultra weak NFC East while SF plays in the tough NFC West. Niners are just 1-5 their previous 6 games, however they’ve been run through the gauntlet facing Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, LA Rams, and Buffalo during that stretch. Last week they played Washington who is currently in 1st place in the NFC East and lost but outgained them by 151 yards. They held Washington’s offense to just 3.1 YPP, however SF gave up 2 defensive TD’s on a 76 yard pick 6 and a 47 yard fumble return. Dallas is coming off a win vs a terrible Cincinnati team last week. Since losing QB Burrow, the Bengals offense has been horrible. However, they did outgain the Cowboys last week in the loss but had 3 turnovers (0 for Dallas). SF has a huge edge defensively here ranking in the top 6 in both YPG and YPP allowed. Dallas ranks outside the outside the top 22 in both despite playing a weak schedule of offenses in the NFC East. The Cowboy offense has played 5 games this year vs teams inside to top 8 in total defense and they’ve averaged 12 PPG in those games. Their losses this year have come by an average of 15 PPG. We’ll take the much better team at this low number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Bears vs Vikings
Play on: Vikings -3 -101 at BetCris

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Minnesota Vikings -3
The lookahead line for this game was Vikings -6.5 last week. It has now been bet all the way down to Vikings -3 this week. I'll gladly take the 3.5 points of value here and back the Vikings as a free pick today. Look for them to make easy work of the Chicago Bears.
The Vikings were 3-point road favorites over the Bears in their first meeting this season. They won that game 19-13 and it was an even bigger blowout than the score would indicate. The Vikings had 385 total yards and held the Bears to 149 yards, outgaining them by 236 yards. The Bears did not score an offensive touchdown as their only TD came on a kick return. Now the Vikings come back as only 3-point home favorites, a sign there is also value with them here.
Chicago is getting too much respect for its 36-7 win over a Houston team that simply quit last week. Not to mention, Deshaun Watson was without all of his weapons on offense. And I know Mitch Trubisky has looked better in his last two games, but they came against two of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Lions and Texans.
Minnesota is coming off a misleading 14-26 loss at Tampa Bay. The Vikings outgained the Bucs by 32 yards and Dalvin Cook rushed for over 100 yards on a very good Tampa run defense. But Dan Bailey missed three field goals and an extra point, leaving 10 points on the board. I had the Bucs as a premium pick in that game and was fortunate to get the cover.
The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. Minnesota is 38-13 ATS in its last 51 games following a SU loss. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Vikings Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Lions vs Titans
Play on: Lions +10 -125 at betonline

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 12/20:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Sunday afternoon is with the Detroit Lions plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans. Detroit (5-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-24 loss at home to Green Bay as a 9.5-point underdog. The Lions have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They get to play the role of spoiler — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Tennessee (9-4) has won three of their last four games after their 31-10 win at Jacksonville — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by at least 14 points. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Take Detroit plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Seahawks vs Washington Football Team
Play on: Washington Football Team +6½ -107 at Draft Kings

Play - Washington (Game 356).
Edges - Washington: 8-1 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win; and 5-1 ATS as a non-division home dog of 5 or fewer points … Seattle: 1-7 ATS after allowing 7 or fewer points last game. We recommend a 1* play on Washington. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Lions vs Titans
Play on: UNDER 53½ -105

Free Total Annihilator On Lions vs Titans under 53½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin Dec 20 '20, 1:00 PM in 20m
NFL | Seahawks vs Washington Football Team
Play on: Washington Football Team +6½ -105 at pinnacle

Seattle vs Washington Free Pick December 20, 2020
The Washington Football Team are winners of four straight games to improve to 6-7 on the season and enter the week top of the NFC East.
Here they'll face a Seahawks team that is fresh off a 40-3 rout of the Jets, but I think Seattle will find this Football Team to be a much tougher opponent.
Note that the Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six overall while Washington has covered the number in four straight games and it is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.
Washington's defense ranks fourth in total defense and third against the pass. I think they'll do enough to slow down Russell Wilson and the rest of the Seahawks to keep this within the number.
Free pick on Washington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Dec 20 '20, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Marist vs Manhattan
Play on: Marist -1 -109 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Marist -1 -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Dec 20 '20, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Marist vs Manhattan
Play on: Manhattan +2 -109 at Draft Kings

Free Play on Manhattan +2 -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Dec 20 '20, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Marquette vs Xavier
Play on: Marquette +3 -110 at Bovada

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Marquette +3 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Dec 20 '20, 2:45 PM in 2h
Soccer | Napoli vs Lazio
Play on: Napoli +158 at betonline

1* Free Play on Napoli +158

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Dec 20 '20, 3:05 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Weber State vs Portland State
Play on: OVER 152 -108

1 Dimer on Weber State vs Portland State over 152 -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart Dec 20 '20, 4:05 PM in 3h
NFL | Jets vs Rams
Play on: Rams -17 -105 at BetCris

Theres is no sign of life in the proverbial corpse known as the NY Jets. That was evident last week when they were crushed by a 40-3 count to Seattle. Meanwhile, the Rams the Jets opponent this week beat the Seahawks by a TD in week 10 , and than stopped cold the Patriots last week by a 24-3 count. The Rams according to my power rankings are playing their best football of the season, while their opponents, lets just say are not. Note: Jets HC Gas has failed to cover 8 of his L/10 as a DD road dog, and 3 of 4 as 17 point ore more pups.
The Rams are 8-0 ATS L/8 coming off a home game and facing a team allowing at least 23 points per game covering by more than 12.38 ppg.
Play on St.Louis Rams to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Dec 20 '20, 4:25 PM in 3h
NFL | Chiefs vs Saints
Play on: Saints +3 -110 at Bovada

Free Pick on Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy Dec 20 '20, 4:25 PM in 3h
NFL | Chiefs vs Saints
Play on: UNDER 52½ -110

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
This is being pegged as a shootout, as you would expect in a game between the juggernaut Chiefs and the Saints in a domed environment in New Orleans. I'm not so sure we're going to see that type of game unfold, however. The Chiefs offense isn't invincible and it will be up against a stout Saints defense that will have a sour taste in its mouth after last week's tough loss in Philadelphia (we won with the Eagles in that game). Note that Kansas City is dealing with a cluster of injuries and absences on its offensive line and now faces a nightmare matchup against a dominant Saints pass rush. Meanwhile, New Orleans is expected to welcome back QB Drew Brees, who had been playing well prior to his injury, but I'm not sure he's interested or capable of going toe-to-toe with Pat Mahomes in a back-and-forth shootout at this stage of his career, especially with WR Michael Thomas sidelined (he's been placed on injured reserve). The Saints should give the Chiefs a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara, both running the football and in the short passing game in this one. With both defenses focused on eliminating their opponents' big play potential look for plenty of long drives ultimately helping keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Dec 20 '20, 8:20 PM in 7h
NFL | Browns vs Giants
Play on: Giants +6½ -103 at pinnacle

1* on Giants +6½ -103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 8

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) (.50 Cent Minimum)



Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $15,500 • Post: 10:09


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 20, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NEON DREAMS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has ru n a Good Race within the last 30 days. QUICK CALISIA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. A FAST BROAD: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CLAY'S MOON STONE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's thir d or fourth start after a layoff.



3

NEON DREAMS

2/1


3/1




7

QUICK CALISIA

12/1


7/1




5

A FAST BROAD

5/1


9/1




2

CLAY'S MOON STONE

8/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

LA ROSA DRIVE

1


5/2

Front-runner

73


56


76.8


56.8


48.8




6

WICKED FLASHBACK

6


6/1

Alternator/Front-runner

64


69


55.8


54.8


43.3




7

QUICK CALISIA

7


12/1

Stalker

73


69


52.8


64.4


53.4




5

A FAST BROAD

5


5/1

Stalker

67


73


44.8


64.0


54.5




3

NEON DREAMS

3


2/1

Alternator/Stalker

80


79


64.4


71.2


68.2




2

CLAY'S MOON STONE

2


8/1

Trailer

73


71


44.7


62.0


57.5




8

GLORIOUS ROSE

8


15/1

Alternator/Trailer

71


73


47.1


56.7


47.7




4

MOCHA KISS

4


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

61


48


61.5


48.1


33.1




9

GEORGIANO

9


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

58


50


55.2


46.4


29.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct



Aqueduct - Race 8

Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (8-10), Double Wagers



Maiden Special • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $70,000 • Post: 3:17P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ERNIE BANKER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NOT PHAR NOW: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distanc e/surface. NEURO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. AMERICAN PIPER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the hors e's third or fourth start after a layoff.



11

ERNIE BANKER

6/1


5/1




9

NOT PHAR NOW

9/2


6/1




6

NEURO

4/1


6/1




7

AMERICAN PIPER

20/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




9

NOT PHAR NOW

9


9/2

Front-runner

87


78


75.0


72.5


66.5




8

ME 'N SAP

8


15/1

Front-runner

0


0


69.6


64.2


49.7




11

ERNIE BANKER

11


6/1

Alternator/Front-runner

86


80


62.7


79.5


74.5




4

WHICHWAYTOMALIBU

4


20/1

Alternator/Stalker

82


72


78.6


70.1


57.6




7

AMERICAN PIPER

7


20/1

Alternator/Stalker

84


80


65.3


54.3


42.8




3

BLACK IRISH

3


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

83


80


58.4


59.6


46.6




6

NEURO

6


4/1

Trailer

86


83


47.6


78.8


74.8




5

TRUE PALACE

5


30/1

Trailer

75


58


39.0


59.0


42.5




2

RIFT VALLEY

2


5/2

Trailer

0


0


27.5


71.1


65.6























Unknown Running Style: KING ANGELO (8/1) [Jockey: Franco Manuel - Trainer: Serpe Philip M], WICKED KARMA (30/1) [Jockey: Maragh Romero Ramsay - Trainer: Lee Joseph R].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Fair Grounds - Race #6 - Post: 3:25pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 NUNC PRO TUNC (ML=7/2)
#8 LOUISIANALIGHTNING (ML=9/5)


NUNC PRO TUNC - Nice return on investment for this jockey and trainer duo. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. Leading into this race, this pony has registered 3 Equibase speed figs that are equal to or higher than today's class rating. A good sign he should compete well in this race. Just see his latest speed figure, 96. That one fits well in this group. LOUISIANALIGHTNING - It looks like Geroux had to know this gelding on Dec 3rd when riding him for the first time. Back atop again today. A win percent like 36 is fantastic for any jockey/conditioner pair. He has the top earnings per start (EPS). Give the once over to this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BIBLEMAN (ML=7/2), #2 SAINTSGOTROBBED (ML=6/1), #1 MAY HOUR (ML=6/1),

BIBLEMAN - Just don't think he is worth it at the given odds. SAINTSGOTROBBED - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple of months in a sprint affair to be any kind of value at minimal odds in a sprint. The extended time off since Sep 4th is somewhat discouraging. MAY HOUR - You always figure that this animal has a shot to win, but he fails most of the time.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #5 NUNC PRO TUNC on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 20 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2019 - 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



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# 10 HEY HEY 6/1




# 8 CHLOBEE 8/1




# 5 R U FORREAL 5/2




HEY HEY appears to be the bet in here. She has garnered very strong figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this field. In fine fettle, and coming back in next to no time again this time out. CHLOBEE - Earned a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is tough not to look at given the company run in recently. R U FORREAL - Is a sharp contender based on numbers posted recently under today's conditions. Earned a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




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Laurel - Race #7 - Post: 3:23pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 PROMENADE PRINCESS (ML=6/1)
#11 KEEPER IN SPITE (ML=9/2)
#1 SEVILLA SANGRIA (ML=12/1)
#9 STEP BY STEP (ML=20/1)


PROMENADE PRINCESS - It looks like Ruiz had to be in the know about this filly on Dec 6th when riding her for the first time. Back aboard again today. Filly is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big race today. KEEPER IN SPITE - Trainer Robb gave this filly a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. Ran last time out against tougher competition at Laurel. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. Filly is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today. SEVILLA SANGRIA - I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a return to racing. STEP BY STEP - Jock jumped on this filly's back for the first time on November 20th. Should 'know' the equine even better in today's contest. Lynch drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping information to think this thoroughbred should be one of the top contenders at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 VILLAMOURA (ML=5/2), #4 CATCH THE SKY (ML=5/1), #5 ANSELMI (ML=8/1),

VILLAMOURA - 5/2 is not offering enough value for any racer in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint affair lately. CATCH THE SKY - No good results for this less than sharp equine in a sprint event over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a very difficult spot The seventh place result in the last race was not that great. ANSELMI - Awfully hard to wager on this horse when she hasn't been showing any signs of readiness recently.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #2 PROMENADE PRINCESS on the win end if we get at least 6/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,11]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)


Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.



Race 8 - Derby - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $154550 Class Rating: 101

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DERBY - GRADE 2 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. 124 LBS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES



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# 1 RUNFORYOURLIFE 10/1



# 9 CIRCLE CITY 6/1



# 6 JUST BE REAL 12/1




I think RUNFORYOURLIFE is a formidable choice and is a formidable value-based wager given the 10/1 line. He looks very strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. He has posted very good figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. CIRCLE CITY - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Has the look of a profitable bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds


12/20/20, FG, Race 1, 1.00 CT
12/20/20,FG,1,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 CLAIMING. Purse $24,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since November 20 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
4
Discreet Tiger
3/1
Arrieta F
Robertson Hugh H.
JTL
632
31.80
1.13/$1


097.9723
1
Irish Hokie
5/2
Gilligan J
Zeringue. Jr. Whitney
S
626
32.43
1.12/$1


097.6888
2
Takafumi (BRZ)
8/5
Murrill M
Correas. IV Ignacio
FEWC
632
31.80
1.13/$1


097.6561
5
D Two
7/2
Beschizza A
Wilson Shane


632
31.80
1.13/$1


094.9286
3
Drew's Shot
15/1
Hernandez C J
Briley Lonnie


632
31.80
1.13/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.75, ROI 0.95/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 Discreet Tiger
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]*NotActualPost1
*Scratches may change this condition