Thursday 12/31/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/31/20

December 31, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use:5-Sofi’s Gold 7-Sweet Rafaela

Forecast: The opener is a turf sprint for state-bred entry-level fillies and mares, and with the rails out 30 feet those able to save ground should have a considerable advantage. Sofi’s Gold has a prior win over the local lawn and enough early speed to be the fray throughout. She’s lightly-raced and therefore may have a bit more room to improve than some of the others. Sweet Rafaela is a veteran mare with six career victories and showed a liking for this turf course in two prior outings, hitting the board both times. She has a good stalking style, retains regular rider E. Maldonado, and has races that put her right there.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Midnight Jamboree; 5-True Mischief

Forecast: Midnight Jamboree seems to be progressing with experience and produced her best effort in four career starts when graduating at Del Mar from a maiden $20,000 field in game style, and in doing so earned a speed figure that makes her tough right back in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 event for older fillies and mares. She’s guaranteed a good ground-saving, stalking trip and should be capable of taking full advantage of it. True Mischief also won a maiden $20,000 affair - her victory was accomplished at Los Alamitos – and if she can run back to that race today she’ll be the one to fear most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Midnight Jamboree.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-I’m Leaving You; 2-C Falls; 4-Antithetical

Forecast: The uncertain pace scenario makes this starter optional claimer over a mile on turf a difficult handicapping challenge. I’m Leaving You has been facing much tougher foes of late while earning speed figures that are good enough to win at this level, and with the favorable inside draw coupled with the switch to J. Rosario the V. Belvoir gelding should have every chance to regain his winning form. His maiden claiming win over this course and distance last May was accomplished in gate-to-wire fashion and we suspect similar strategy will be employed today. However, C Falls should be part of the pace throughout and there’s a chance these two will cancel each other out if they hook up early. ‘Falls, in fact, may be a tad quicker, so if he’s sent from the bell he could get over and obtain the same type of trip that produced his maiden $50,000 claiming win at Los Alamitos 19 days ago. Antithetical is the best of the closers, and if a speed duel materializes he’ll be the beneficiary. His runner-up effort over this course during the fall meeting produced a career top speed figure, the best in the field. We’ll pass the race other than to use all three in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Varoma; 5-You’re All Talk

Forecast: Varoma earned a decent speed figure – one that’s probably good enough to beat this field – when a willing runner-up in a slightly stronger maiden claiming sprint at Del Mar last month, and with any kind of forward move today the daughter of Vancouver should be capable of leading this field gate-to-wire. In that race she was two length clear of the third filly, who came back to win, and bug girl J. Pyfer has proven quite capable when riding front-running types. The only concern is a recent workout in which the M. Ortiz-trained filly displayed a tendency to lug out; hopefully she’ll run straight and true today. You’re All Talk is considerably slower on numbers than our top pick but is adding blinkers for the first time and certainly has a right to improve. She should be able to settle into a second flight position and then have dead aim from there. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with clear preference on top to Varoma.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Smoothlikebuttah; 2-Warren’s Candy Girl; 4-Miss Ever Ready; 9-Agata

Forecast: Straight maiden state-bred juvenile fillies meet over a mile on turf in what looks to be a wide open affair with several possibilities. We’ll go four deep, and if you find the need to include even a few more, go right ahead. Smoothlikebutta stretches out for the first time and tries grass, and as a daughter of Mr. Big she’s certainly bred to improve with the added distance and the switch in surface. Her sprint form isn’t bad, and her good inside draw – especially with the rails set at 30 feet – dictates a pace setting or pressing strategy. Warren’s Candy Girl and Miss Ever Ready, two-three finishers under similar conditions at Del Mar last month, both figure in the fray and neither would have to improve much to win. Agata is drawn a bit farther outside than we’d prefer but if she can get over a secure a decent trip the daughter of Gervinho should have a chance to make a legitimate run for it. Her sprint debut at Del Mar was okay and with Redatorre on the bottom side of her pedigree she should be able to act around two-turns.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Kneedeepinsnow; 4-Shashashakemeup

Forecast: Shashashakemeup is a dangerous Churchill Downs shipper from the P. Miller barn and is fresh from a strong runner-up effort that produced a career top speed figure, one good enough to beat this field. A winner at this extended sprint distance two races back, the son of Shackleford has an ideal stalking style that ensures a comfortable trip, picks up F. Prat, and in a race without much early speed won’t have to be used early to get where he wants to be. He’s 9/5 on the morning line and on paper looks it. Kneedeepinsnow is worth including as well. Not as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but with excellent form over the Santa Anita main track, the S. Ruis-trained colt sports a bullet half mile workout (47 1/5 seconds, fastest of 47) last week to have him fit and ready in his first start since October and, assuming he breaks cleanly, projects to have a strong pace presence from the rail.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Javanica; 4-Quattroelle

Forecast: The main players in this year’s edition of the Blue Norther S. just finished two-three in the Jimmy Durante S. at Del Mar last month. Both ran winning races behind New York shipper Fluffy Socks, and both should step forward again under similar conditions in this one mile grass affair for juvenile fillies. Javanica was bottled up in traffic into the lane, secured room inside the furlong pole and produced an exceptional turf of foot to wind up second beaten just a half-length while taking the worst of the race flow. Quattroelle ran equally well, as she failed to secure cover at any stage while wide every step of the way and was fanned out badly entering the lane. We’ll be only mildly surprised if they don’t finish together again, with the winner likely to be the one that enjoys the best trip. That said, we’ll give Javanica a very slight edge on top, as she has a bit more tactical speed and a good inside draw that guarantees a ground-saving trip.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Old Indian Trick; 4-Alcools

Forecast: Alcools once had some promise; today he’s running for $20,000 after clipping heels and pulling up when competing for a $50,000 tag at Los Alamitos less than two weeks ago. The son of Gemologist came back to work six days after that race so we assume he’s doing well, and since he won sprinting in his debut during the summer of 2019 this turn back in trip won’t be an issue. Old Indian Trick, away for almost two years, returns as a first-time gelding at a logical level, and in field that doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed signed on the M. Puype-trained gelding projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance. The work tab is healthy and steady, so we’re expecting the son of Ministers Wild Cat to fire a big shot off the bench.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-Disco Ball; 7-Hollywoodhellraisr

Forecast: In the brief but frustrating career of Disco Ball, it’s simply been a case of getting out of the gate cleanly, or, specifically, his inability to do so. After finishing a close third to the stakes winner Collision Illusion in his only start as a 2-year-old, the B. Koriner-trained colt was compromised in his next two outings when losing his best chance at the start due to self-caused trouble. Freshened since August and continuing to impress in the a.m., the son of Orb tries grass for the first time, and if he leaves cleanly and is able to display the kind of early speed that we suspect he has, the B. Koriner-trained colt should be more than capable of earning his diploma in this fairly contentious turf sprint for older maidens. Three recent bullet workouts point him out, so at 7/2 on the morning line he offers good value. For protection, we’ll also include on a ticket or two Hollywoodhellrasr, a talented gelding sporting the route-to-sprint angle that we like. The son of Race Day ran well when third over this course last summer and has trained quite well for his return. He’ll be rolling late.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#10 Lifespan
With very little finishing punch signed on in here, this guy should get a good run into the splits while stepping up off the claim. Think the 4/1 ML price would be fair in a soft spot for the level.


#6 Chauffeur
Didn't show anything with better last time out, but he gets some class relief in this one and is another who has some mild finishing ability that may serve him well here.


#5 Mr. Shades of Gray
Showed a little life last out when dropped in for a tag for the first time, and he can probably sit closer to the pace this time around.


Race Summary
Lifespan steps up from the $10,000 level after just missing, and he has the right kind of running style to finish in a race where most of them should be stopping in the lane.


Laurel Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Coconut Cake
Reliable finishing type has done little wrong through five starts, and she is likely to get a really good go of things in a spot with a couple of pace elements.


#1 Baby Boss
Looks sharpest of the pace players, and she just missed at this level last out when caught on the wire. Dangerous from the bell.


#9 Ankle Monitor
She has earned some solid figures while running underneath with better groups than this, and she seems useful again for a share of this one.


Race Summary
Coconut Cake looks like the right one, as she should get a decent set of splits to kick into, led by the capable and sharp speed of Baby Boss.


Laurel Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Wanderlust
Taking a swing with this forward player, as there isn't a ton of serious pace signed on, and she'll get completely let go on the board with these. She obviously needs a big turnaround, but she should be good for a thrill on the engine at a number.


#4 Indy Takes Charge
She looks like the one to beat, but she has had plenty of chances to clear this condition and tends to settle for more than her share of runner-up finishes.


#5 Escape Fund
Not out of the question with the blinkers going on today, and she was already competitive with this kind a couple starts back.


Race Summary
Wanderlust owns some early speed, and though she was stopping badly before going to the bench, perhaps some time off and a change of scenery will do her some good.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Freehold - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 DUCK N ROLL
Responded to front-end tactics, just missed against odds-on fave.


#6 GAMBLERS ANONYMOUS
Slowed by pace versus 'Duck,' ran third, now third start back.


#1 PRINCESS HOLLY N
Favorable post switch, takes some catching from the rail.


Race Summary
Duck N Roll controlled the pace and got caught late by the 1-to-5 favorite in the faster division of a split race. She should sit a pocket trip today, with Princess Holly to catch. Play 2-1 and 2-6 exactas.


Dover Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 LEONARD'S LEGACY
Tries to upstage series of recent in-the-money finishes.


#2 THORNBUSH HANOVER
Changed tactics, caught late after :56.2 middle half.


#4 STEP ON THE GAS
Flattened out after middle move, gets class relief.


Race Summary
Leonard's Legacy finished behind a 3-to-5 winner three starts back and an odds-on repeater in restricted 'Delaware' races. The 3yo is knocking on the door for his first win of the year.


Pompano Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 LIME TWIST
Nowhere to run for 3/4s of a mile, angled wide, no punch.


#3 HEAVENLY EVELYN
Showed pulse from outside posts, upset possibility.


#4 FREE LOVE
Has speed and Hennessey, missed a week 'sick.'


Race Summary
Lime Twist, trapped 3-deep on the rail in the third quarter, angled wide but lacked stretch kick. She should sit a good trip from the rail and can beat this field. Play a 1-3-4 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#2 Business Cycle
Closed ground but lost position going two turns in a stakes race last time and now cuts back to a one-turn mile; can get an adequate pace in front of him today.


#1 Crea's Bklyn Law
Was too late in his bid in a stakes race that had fractions that were way too much for him; drops in class and can be a big player today.


#7 Trappezoid
Won easily when claimed three races back and has been in tough spots since then; factors in on the class drop.


Race Summary
Business Cycle does his best running when stalking and can be just off a decent one-turn pace; can fight it out with these.


Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Take Ten
Improved position last time out and has been off since April; McGaughey now trains and she has trained well for this.


#6 Beam of Light
Held second in her first over the strip and likely will be difficult to catch.


#2 Osaka Girl
Pressed the pace and tired last last time; she can improve in her second off the layoff.


Race Summary
Take Ten has a good closing move and can respond to a lively pace; one to hold off.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#4 Everfast
Ran on well for third in his first one here after running in tough stakes races over the summer; fits well here.


#3 Garter and Tie
Is a frequent stakes competitor over this track and has won since June 2019 but could wake up in this class drop.


#2 Violent City
Was a clear winner two back at Churchill Downs and broke his maiden here in January; has worked well since his latest.


Race Summary
Everfast has been in some strong races this year and finished with interest in his first one here this season; can get back to the winner's circle for the first one since August.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero



Camarero - Race 6

Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7



Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 66 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 5:00P


FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 117 LBS. ALLOWED 1 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ABELO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMas ter Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MACUCO'S CHOICE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ratin g. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



7

ABELO

2/1


5/2




4

MACUCO'S CHOICE

3/1


7/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

SUNNY LAD

2


10/1

Front-runner

0


0


80.6


37.0


27.5




9

SPEIGHT IT AMAZING

9


4/1

Front-runner

0


0


71.1


42.7


35.7




7

ABELO

7


2/1

Stalker

63


59


55.7


56.2


52.2




3

FLOW METER

3


15/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


61.6


37.9


26.4




4

MACUCO'S CHOICE

4


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

65


61


40.3


48.2


44.7




6

STRONG LEGEND

6


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


53.3


22.1


10.1




1

LIBRE SOY

1


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


46.5


22.7


12.7




8

TRAYECTO

8


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


42.2


24.4


13.9























Unknown Running Style: GIANT GOLD (10/1) [Jockey: Diaz Angel I - Trainer: Molinari Angel], QUIQUE STYLE (5/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Sanchez A - Trainer: Diaz Samuel].