Service Plays Sunday 1/17/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[citybeat]

Jan 17
Las Vegas Cris
5%
[NFL] (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints

Time: 6:40 PM EST
New Orleans Saints -3.0 (-110)


Analysis: Saints -3 (5%) This is an amazing value for Playoffs. This may be against the market but I like my data

[dawggy]

TEDDY COVERS




Game: (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Jan 17 2021 6:40 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-105)

5% Big Ticket: Take Tampa Bay (#307)
My clients and I cashed a winning bet AGAINST the Bucs last week and we cashed another winning bet ON the Saints. Yet this week, I’m loading up on Tampa plus the points in New Orleans! What gives?
Let me start with this – we were lucky to win either bet. I was only right about half the handicap (Washington was bet ON, Chicago was bet AGAINST) in both games. Here’s what I wrote about the Bucs last week:
“Tom Brady’s Kryptonite is a defensive line that can create pressure without blitzing. Washington has a top five pressure rate, which has resulted in a bevy of forced turnovers. Montez Sweat and Chase Young are the most dangerous defensive end duo in the league right now. Brady has been ‘off and on’ for extended stretches this season and I’m not convinced this is a good matchup for him.”
That handicap was dead wrong. The Bucs offensive line was able to control the line of scrimmage throughout. Yes, Brady took three sacks, but for most of the day, his uniform was clean thanks to that strong OL play. The only reason my clients & I covered the spread was due to red zone failures; only one TD in five tries for Tampa, not a long term problem for this Super Bowl contender. And it’s worth noting how comfortable Brady was, resulting in a bevy of big plays. FIVE different Bucs receivers caught a pass for longer than 20 yards and Gronk didn’t even make a catch. I do NOT expect the Saints defensive front to control the flow here – not with Tampa’s offensive line playing as well as they have all year right now!
Here’s what I wrote about the Saints – more incorrect analysis: “The Saints have played the last month without three of their top four wide receivers, including gamebreaker Michael Thomas. Their entire running back room was on COVID restriction last week, ruled out at Carolina. I expect just about everybody from both groups to play here, giving this offense an element of explosiveness they’ve lacked down the stretch.”
Last week’s game against the Bears made it very clear. The Saints late season offensive weaknesses were not solely the result of the injuries to their receiving corps. New Orleans is not getting elite level offensive line play right now. And Drew Brees clearly doesn’t have the arm strength at this stage of the season – and his career – to stretch the defense with downfield shots. Everything is dink & dunk; not an offense with much big play ability at this stage of the campaign, nor an offense with the capacity to erase deficits if they fall behind.
I’m well aware that the Saints defense gave Tom Brady trouble in both previous meetings this season. On opening day, Brady’s pick six was a real turning point, as was Tampa’s -3 turnover margin. That said, the Saints offense only gained 4.1 yards per play in that game. The rematch was just ‘one of those games’ where everything went wrong for Tampa and right for New Orleans from the opening kick – the worst half of football Tampa played all year.
The Bucs are a different team now than they were in Week 9 – they’ve gotten steadily better (as expected for a team that made major transitions last offseason without any benefit of preseason contests). The Bucs haven’t lost a game by more than a field goal since. Brady is NOT out of steam by January, like we saw last year and we’re seeing with Drew Brees now. Meanwhile, the Saints haven’t beaten a single team that’s Over .500 since that win over the Bucs, and we’ve seen New Orleans – repeatedly in the Sean Payton era – blow playoff games like this one at home. Prior to last week, their last home win & cover in the playoffs came in 2011 against the Lions. I’m not expecting them to get another one here. Be sure to sprinkle at least a little something on the Bucs moneyline in a game I expect them to win. Big Ticket: Take the Buccaneers.
Line Parameter: 5% at +3 or higher, 4% at +2.5 or lower

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus text pick this week NFL is New Orleans Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 10:32 AM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
CLEVELAND +10
I don't like the way Patrick Mahomes has been playing. Over his last three games he has completed just 59.2 percent of his passes, thrown seven touchdowns and four interceptions and has a passer rating of 87.6. That's not him. A bigger problem for the Chiefs is that they may never see the ball. Kansas City's defense gave up 4.5 yards per carry during the season and will struggle to stop Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. After seeing what the Browns did last week without their coach and play caller, I wonder what they can do with him on Sunday. I'm taking the Browns.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 CLE ATS PICKS

Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
TUE 1/12

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
CLEVELAND +10
Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson should be back from the COVID-19 list in time to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Cleveland also is getting back guard Joel Bitonio, though Jack Conklin (hamstring) is iffy. The Chiefs haven't beaten anyone by more than six points since their Week 8 stomping of the Jets. K.C. gives up 4.5 yards per carry, so Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have success. Chiefs win, Browns cover.

+890 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 NFL ATS PICKS
+1285 15-2 IN LAST 17 KC ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Hochman
WEST COAST WISEGUY
TUE 1/12

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
TAMPA BAY +3
The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus for Sunday; they should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only three points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus-3 turnover margin in the first game, and Tom Brady threw three interceptions in the second matchup. The Saints held the Bears to a 10.0 percent conversion rate on third down last week, but I don't see that happening on Sunday; Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense. Take Tampa Bay plus the points, risking no juice.


Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
TUE 1/12

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -3
New Orleans has Tampa Bay's number. The Saints beat the Bucs easily twice during the regular season and held Tampa Bay to just three points in the most recent meeting. Like all quarterbacks, Tom Brady doesn't do well when he's pressured, and the New Orleans defense is good at getting pressure; the Saints ranked eighth in the NFL in sacks (45). On the other side of the ball, quarterback Drew Brees should be able to take advantage of a blitz-heavy Bucs defense. I'm on the Saints.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+1322 20-6-1 IN LAST 27 NO ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

5 tampa bay+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 3:38 PM

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -3
Many Tampa Bay backers are leaning on the old saw that it’s difficult to knock off a team three times in a season. Pshaw. History does not support the theory, especially when the combined score of the first two meetings is a lopsided 72-26, as is the case here. The Saints also swept the series in 2019, making Sean Payton 4-0 straight-up against a Buccaneers team coached by Bruce Arians. New Orleans QB Drew Brees’ reduced ability to throw downfield is offset by an array of top-flight receivers and superb RB Alvin Kamara. The Saints' defense is superior and could exploit the absence of Tampa Bay G Alex Cappa (ankle.)

+450 22-16-3 IN LAST 41 NFL ATS PICKS
+390 5-1-3 IN LAST 9 TB ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merrill

3% New Orleans Over 52

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi - NFL

NFL Executive Plays

Sunday, January 17th

5% Kansas City Chiefs (-10) 3:05 PM ET.

4% New Orleans Saints (-3) 6:40 PM ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog

NFL

TampaBay/NewOrleans 52 Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy football for this week:


3-Unit Play. #306. Take Kansas City Chiefs -10 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 3:05pm est)


Chiefs will be ready for the Browns. They will not let them jump all over them for 40+ points and 28 points right out of the gate. The Steelers are not a good football team late in the season because they were too injured. The Chiefs just saw what the Browns can do and how fast they can start, they will be ready for this team, they are rested, they just lost to the Chargers and Big Ben threw for 500 yards on these Browns at the end of the day - and Mahommes will not have 4 interceptions. Look for the Chiefs to stop the 2 headed monster run for the Browns and to roll here. Baker is a great talent, a good quarterback, but he runs into a buzz saw today.


3-Unit Play. #306. Take Under 57 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 3:05pm est)


Chiefs defense is massively underrated here. Plus, the Browns will take the challenge against Baker and this will surprise folks as to how low scoring this game is going to be. Look for both these teams to run the ball plenty here and consequently look for an Under here.


3-Unit Play. #308. Take New Orleans Saints -3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday @ 6:40pm est)


The Saints won 38-3 and 34-23. I know the Bucs have revenge and Tom Brady is on the other side. Difference here though is the better coaching staff, by leaps and bounds are the Saints. Tampa Bay beat Washington by 8 points and Washington did not even have a quarterback. Saints dominated a good Panthers team that nearly beat the Chiefs 33-7, they know this is Brees last year, this team is united and playing very well and this defense is fantastic right now. Bucs are not disciplined as well on defense and look for the Saints to roll here.


3-Unit Play. #308. Take Under 52 Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 6:40pm est)


Saints defense will play well here and though the Bucs will score early, that will help the Saints calm things down after that early Tampa Bay score, and they will control the clock from there on out. They have Kamara, and Jones is hurt and look for both these defenses to play well as the Bucs gave up 38 points to the Saints last time so they will play relatively well and the Saints defense will lock down here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole NFL Sunday

3 Over 52 TB at N.O.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

3 NO OVER

Opinions:

Cleve
NO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3* Chiefs -9.5
2* Memphis +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Ma- Browns, Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek

5% NO ML


4*Chiefs Over
4*Browns

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Martin Green

Liverpool vs. Manchester United picks (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET)

Liverpool to win (-103)
Both teams to score (-150)

One of the fiercest rivalries in English soccer will resume when Premier League champion Liverpool hosts Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday.

Liverpool was the dominant force during the 1970s and 1980s, but Sir Alex Ferguson vowed to "knock them off their perch" after arriving at Man United. His mission proved to be remarkably successful, as the Red Devils won 13 Premier League titles between 1993 and 2013, the year Ferguson retired.

Liverpool endured a lengthy title drought during that time, but it finally came to an end when the Reds won the league last season. "We're back on our perch," Liverpool chief executive Peter Moore declared.

Man United has struggled since Ferguson's retirement. However, it currently is enjoying its best season since the Scot rode off into the sunset. Man United beat Burnley 1-0 on Tuesday, a result that put it three points ahead of Liverpool atop of the Premier League standings. Therefore, we should be in for an intriguing clash between the two heavyweights on Sunday.

Injuries Mount for Liverpool

Liverpool got off to a flying start this season, posting nine wins, four draws and just one defeat in its opening 14 games. However, injury problems have taken their toll on Jurgen Klopp's squad. Key central defenders Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez are out for the long term, while many more players have sidelined for lengthy spells.

Liverpool's form has fizzled out in recent weeks. It could only manage a 1-1 draw with struggling West Brom on Dec. 27, then drew 0-0 with Newcastle three days later. The Reds had a great chance to get back to their winning ways on Jan. 4 but ended up losing 1-0 to Southampton.

Man United has capitalized on Liverpool's struggles by putting together a superb run. It has won five of its last six games, and allowing it to overtake the Reds for first in the league.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men are now unbeaten in 11 league matches, with nine wins and draws against Manchester City and Leicester. Bruno Fernandes has led the charge, but Paul Pogba is on fire right now, and Man United always looks dangerous on the break.

Attacking Trio Could Prove Crucial

This represents a stern test for Liverpool, which is aiming for the league title. It beat Man United 2-0 at Anfield a year ago, and that was a symbolic victory. It made the squad believe in its ability to win the crown, and it ended up finishing 18 points in front of Man City and 33 points ahead of third-place Man United.

Klopp will be desperate to capture a second consecutive title, but he must find a balanced starting squad. He opted to play central midfielders Fabinho and Jordan Henderson at the heart of the defense against Southampton, and it did not work. Liverpool appeared light at midfield without the duo, and it still looked liable to concede.

Joel Matip is doubtful for the game against Man United, but he would give the club a huge boost if he could return. Klopp may decide to put the inexperienced Rhys Williams in alongside Fabinho on defense if he remains absent, and Henderson could return to midfield in order to anchor the team.

Diojo Jota is out, but Thiago Alcantara is back to dictate the pace of play at midfield, and an attacking triumvirate of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino should cause all sorts of problems for Man United. If they all play to their full potential, they can lead this depleted Liverpool team to a vital victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

5- browns chiefs over 55.5 -110
4- New Orleans-3 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Veno:

5% play- saints bucs over 52 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 5:50 PM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
CLEVELAND +10
The Chiefs are virtually everyone's pick for the best team in football, but they haven't really lived up to that status in the second half, failing to win by seven points or more in every game since Week 8, a string almost fully consisting of ATS losses. Their defense is vulnerable to good rushing offenses, and with Baker Mayfield only throwing one pick since Week 7, the Browns should be able to hang around in a high-scoring game. And when they take it to the red zone, where they're third in success rate, they should come away with TDs against the worst red-zone defense in the league. This line feels three points too high.

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+687 19-11-4 IN LAST 34 CLE ATS PICKS
+190 3-1-1 IN LAST 5 KC ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

Double Play: Chiefs -9.5
Single Play: Saints -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Clay Travis

browns +10
over 57 browns/Chiefs
bucs +3
over 52 Bucs/Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog
NFL

TampaBay/NewOrleans 52 Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence Scorching Hot NFL Playoff Kill Play! - Sunday

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OTL
Buccaneers +3.5
Buccaneers/Saints Over 52
Chiefs -10
Chiefs/Browns Over 55

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keiv O'Neil

2 Saints -3

1.5 Iowa/Northwestern Over 77 1st half
1.5 Iowa/Northwestern Over 156

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al
Kansas City smash
Buccaneers elite
Clippers in nba perfect 10 play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh

UTAH @ DENVER | 01/17 | 8:00 PM EST
UTAH +1
ANALYSIS: This is the first matchup of the season between these two teams since their airtight seven-game playoff series in the NBA bubble, won by Denver. Utah is hot, having beaten Milwaukee, Detroit and Cleveland on the road and Atlanta at home on Friday and will be motivated to get some revenge for last year's playoff defeat. My model says Utah covers more than two-thirds of the time, so you're getting strong value with the Jazz at this number.

+857 13-4 IN LAST 17 DEN ATS PICKS
+470 8-3 IN LAST 11 UTA ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 9:36 PM

NEW YORK @ BOSTON | 01/17 | 1:00 PM EST
NEW YORK +7.5
ANALYSIS: Kemba Walker has been upgraded to questionable, and his possible availability has made this line higher than it should be. My model says the Knicks cover more than 60 percent of the time and keeps this a three-point game, so you're getting strong value at this number. I'm on New York.

+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 NY ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 9:26 PM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
10:00 AM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
CLEVELAND +10
This is a very intriguing matchup with a lot of different storylines and should be much closer than the line suggests. The Chiefs are tough at home, while the Brown have struggled and are in unfamiliar territory. However, they will challenge this Kansas City defense, considering how QB Baker Mayfield is playing and the weapons he has around him. Cleveland can rush the ball and will need to try to keep Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible. The Browns haven't lost by more than 10 points since Week 6, and I think they actually have a shot to win this game.


Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
YESTERDAY 3:30 PM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
CLEVELAND +10
A good run game and an opportunistic defense can win you games in the NFL. While the Browns may not get the win, that formula they have with Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and defensive end Myles Garrett should be enough to help them keep this a one-possession game.

+90 3-2 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS
+488 21-15-1 IN LAST 37 KC ATS PICKS
+380 6-2 IN LAST 8 CLE ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns NHL

SUNDAY BREAKFAST CLUB!

Penguins

[J Pendleton]

King Creole NFL Sunday

3 Over 52 TB at N.O.


Normally a good handicapper ... Creole screwed his customers last night by handing out a GOY on Balt / Buff OVER ... in 30 MPH Wind !!! Freaking irresponsible !!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3* Chiefs -9.5
2* Memphis +1.5
DIVISIONAL RD. TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

**********Correction******************

DIVISIONAL RD. TOTAL OF THE YEAR! *80% RECORD

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Under 52 (-105)

Analysis:

I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -3
ANALYSIS: The Saints were the last team to beat an opponent three times in one season. They did it in 2017 against the Panthers. While I expect the Bucs to not turn this game into the turnoverfest it was during the teams' second matchup, I don't expect them to gain much traction offensively against a stout Saints defense. Lay the points with New Orleans.

+90 3-2 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS
+820 16-7 IN LAST 23 NO ATS PICKS
+143 8-6-2 IN LAST 16 TB ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 3:33 PM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SDQL

INDIANA @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 01/17 | 10:00 PM EST
INDIANA +5.5
ANALYSIS: Since Miles Turner was drafted in 2015, Indiana is 7-0 ATS as an underdog after a win as a dog in which his plus/minus was at least three points worse than the team's. Also, since Justin Holiday joined the Pacers in 2019, they are 6-0 ATS on the road after any game in which he shot better than 60 percent, winning every game straight up. Finally, since last February, the Pacers are 8-0 ATS following any game in which Domantas Sabonis has a plus/minus at least four points worse than the team's, winning every contest straight up. Grab the points.

+290 4-1 IN LAST 5 NBA ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 IND ATS PICKS
9:46 AM

NEW ORLEANS @ SACRAMENTO | 01/17 | 9:00 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -2.5
ANALYSIS: The Pelicans are 19-0 ATS (+10.08 ppg) following a double-digits road loss in an away game in which they're facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 and they are not getting more than three points. New Orleans also is 7-0 ATS (+7.07 ppg) as a favorite after a double-digit road loss in which they had 20-plus turnovers. Sacramento also is coming off a double-digit loss, but the Kings are 0-12 ATS (-12.38 ppg) at home following a double-digit loss as home underdogs in which their opponent shot 50 percent or better from beyond the arc with at least 10 attempts. We are on the Pelicans.

+290 4-1 IN LAST 5 NBA ATS PICKS
9:41 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
TAMPA BAY +3
ANALYSIS: The Buccaneers' offense has been on fire since the bye, and they would have put up more points last week against a tough Washington defense if not for Chris Godwin's uncharacteristic drops. It's hard for any defense, even one as good as the Saints', to contain Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Godwin. Over the past five weeks, the Bucs have averaged an NFL-best 6.9 yards per play. Tampa isn't going to get embarrassed by the Saints again. Take the points in what should be a very tight game.

+890 20-10-2 IN LAST 32 NFL ATS PICKS
+359 28-22 IN LAST 50 NO ATS PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 TB ATS PICKS
12:15 AM

FRESNO ST. @ NEVADA | 01/17 | 4:00 PM EST
NEVADA -7
ANALYSIS: These teams played each other on this same floor Friday, the Wolf Pack winning 73-57. I don't think the spread has adjusted enough. Nevada dominated the boards (37-26) and got great looks, leading to 51.9 percent shooting from the field. Look for Fresno State to fall to 4-17-1 ATS in its last 22 games versus winning teams.

+2189 76-49-2 IN LAST 127 CBB ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 11:55 PM

MEMPHIS @ TULSA | 01/17 | 3:00 PM EST
TULSA +1
ANALYSIS: Memphis hasn't played since Dec. 29 when it beat South Florida by one. The game before that, Memphis lost at home by seven to this same Tulsa team. The Golden Hurricane have won three of four meetings since Penny Hardaway took over the Tigers; that includes an 80-40 drubbing at Tulsa last season. Play the home dog.

+2189 76-49-2 IN LAST 127 CBB ATS PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 MEMP ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 11:50 PM

NEW YORK @ BOSTON | 01/17 | 1:00 PM EST
BOSTON -7.5
ANALYSIS: Boston has won five straight and welcomes a Knicks team that's lost five in a row SU and ATS. The Knicks went all-out to win in Cleveland on Friday, with Julius Randle playing 38 minutes and Reggie Bullock playing 31 in his first game back from injury. Randle shot 11 of 20, but this is a much tougher matchup. Back Boston to cover its fifth straight.

+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 NBA PICKS
+1480 64-45-2 IN LAST 111 BOS ATS PICKS
+134 9-7-1 IN LAST 17 NY ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 11:03 PM

IOWA @ NORTHWESTERN | 01/17 | 12:00 PM EST
IOWA -9.5
ANALYSIS: The Wildcats have lost four straight since a 1-point win over Ohio State, all the defeats coming by at least 10 points. Iowa has won four in a row, including an 87-72 home victory over the Wildcats on Dec. 30. During the streak, Jordan Bohannon is 19 of 30 from 3-point range. Look for the favorite to improve to 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings.

+2189 76-49-2 IN LAST 127 CBB ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 IOWA ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 9:21 PM

[golden contender]

NFL TIER 1 NFC and NBA Divisional Game of the Year Headline Sunday Along with NCAAB and AFC Triple System Side. Comp play below.

The NCAAB Comp play on Sunday is on the Under in the Memphis at Tulsa game at 3:00 eastern. These two played last month and both were inept on offense a the game wound up with 105 points. Memphis has gone under in 13 o 14 and this is their first game of the new year. Tulsa had a nice win streak snapped last out and have gone under 17 of 24 here at home including 5 of 6 vs winning teams. Memphis is 5-0 under on Sundays, 6 of 7 vs a winning team and 16 of 20 under on the road. Look for another lower scoring game. Play on the Under. See us On facebook to jump on the NBA Divisional Game of the Year and TIER 1 NFL Headlining the Sunday card. For the comp play. Go under Memphis and Tulsa. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vegasmirabet

Manchester vs Liverpool Under 3

[Bettenguy]

Mile High Sports 12-19 -72.4 Units Last 14 days
$1000 Dollar Play - Saints -2.5
$500 Dollar Play - Browns +10
$500 Dollar Play - Browns/Chiefs UNDER 57

[Calidreaming]

Jack Banks NCAA Play Weber St
Ben Burns NHL Play Pitt (noon)
Big Al NBA Play Knicks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot Shot Sports

NBA
3* #547/548 Indiana/LA Clippers OVER 220

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

3 NO OVER

Opinions:

Cleve
NO

Marquee (single) Cleveland/Kansas City OVER 57

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Barner

INDIANA @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 01/17 | 10:00 PM EST
INDIANA +5.5
The Pacers are going to be playing short-handed as an MRI revealed that the newly acquired Caris LeVert has a small mass on his left kidney. Indiana is used to playing with a limited depth chart, though, and has lost by more than five points only once this season. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS on the road, including 3-0 ATS as road underdogs. Meanwhile, the Clippers are just 2-4 ATS at home. Expect Indiana to keep this close.

+80 3-2 IN LAST 5 NBA ATS PICKS
+70 4-3 IN LAST 7 IND ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3* Chiefs -9.5
2* Memphis +1.5
DIVISIONAL RD. TOTAL OF THE YEAR!


**********Correction******************

DIVISIONAL RD. TOTAL OF THE YEAR! *80% RECORD

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Under 52 (-105)

Analysis:

I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy NCAAB

4 Unit Play. #307174. Take Under 137 New Jersey Tech vs. Albany (Sunday @ 5pm est) (America East Conference)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

10* PERFECT STORM

KC Chiefs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

3% Hofstra -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG Al

NCAA Basketball Selections for Sunday, Jan. 17
If we have any college basketball plays, they'll be posted here by 3:15 pm. Please check back between 3:15 and 3:45 pm eastern.

NBA Selections for Sunday, Jan. 17
3* Knicks +8, 1:05 pm
1* Clippers -6, 10:05 pm

NHL Selections for Sunday, Jan. 17
We will pass in hockey on Sunday.

NFL Selections for Sunday, January 17
1* Chiefs -9.5, 3:05 pm
1* Buccaneers +3, 6:40 pm
We may have a totals play in the evening game, so please back for our final report.
For new clients, our games are rated 5*, 4*, 3* and 1*.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Over 57 clev/kc
Saints -3/bucs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Early Edge Podcast

NFL

Cleveland +9.5 Consensus
New Orleans-2.5 Consensus
UN 52 New Orleans R.J. White
1H Cleveland +6.5 R.J. White
OV 73.5 Rushing Yards Chubb E Hunt
OV 6.5 Receptions Thomas E Hunt
OV 19.5 Rushing Yards Mahomes R.J. White
OV 16.5 Receiving Yards Hunt L Hartstein
OV 68.5 Receiving Yards Godwin L Hartstein

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bondi

4* Kansas City
3* New Orleans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Root

Chairman Saints

Pinnacle Chiefs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

10 New Orleans -2.5

[Player1]

Root
Pinnacle NFL Playoff Game of the Year
KC Chiefs -10

[Duncan]

Power Play Wins

Tampa Bay Bucs +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service Picks
Picks For 01/17/21
5* Tulsa -1 over Memphis (NCAAB)
3* Tampa Bay/New Orleans OVER 52 (NFL)

[Duncan]

Picks For Sunday 01/17/21
Insider Sports Report
4* Boston -7.5 over New York (NBA)
Range: -6 to -10
3* Cleveland/Kansas City OVER 57 (NFL)
Range: 55 to 59
3* New Orleans -3 over Tampa Bay (NFL)
Range: -1.5 to -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Pipeline

100 NO - 2.5

[Duncan]

BEST SPORTS CAPPER

Memphis/Tulsa Under 130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Demarco

Top-Rated 15-Dime Divisional Round Lock

New Orleans Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kirby Maxwell

2nd Ever
150 DIME
NFL Release of my Career

Buccaneers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

TOP-RATED
100 DIME

AFC Playoff Lock

Cleveland

[Duncan]

Elite Sports Picks
Cleveland +9.5 over Kansas City (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

600♦
AFC Divisional
Total of the Year

Saints-Buccaneers Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Top-Rated
100 DIME
NFC Divisional Lock

Tampa Bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Top-Rated
1000♦

AFC Divisional Lock

Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

50 DIME

Big Ten Lock

Purdue

[Duncan]

Picks 2 Play

*Cleveland Browns +9.5

*76ers -3

*Marshall -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gus Augustine

50 Dime
AFC Divisional
Bounce Back Winner

Cleveland Browns

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney

60 Dime

Santa Clara, tips at 5 pm eastern

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #806 Northwestern (+10) over Iowa (Noon, Sunday, Jan. 17)

2-Unit Play. Take #817 Central Florida (+14) over Houston (2 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 17)

2-Unit Play. Take #837 Santa Clara (-3.5) over San Diego (5 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 17)

2-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #807 Penn State (+10) over Purdue (1 p.m.) AND Take #836 Loyola-Chicago (-5.5) over Northern Iowa (5 p.m.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo NBA

2 - Dallas -7

[citybeat]

Jan 17
Marco D'Angelo
4%
[NFL] (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints

Time: 6:40 PM EST
New Orleans Saints -3.0 (-100)


Analysis: 4% (308) NEW ORLEANS -3
You will hear a lot this week about how hard it is to beat the same team 3 times in the same year. It’s something that doesn’t happen very often but in the 7 times that a team was going for a 3-0 Sweep they were 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS. Yes the Saints completely destroyed Tampa the last time they played yet people will still want Tampa and Tom Brady. Too often this year Tampa got off to slow starts and had to rally from big deficits. Tampa has been putting up big offensive numbers but look at who they have played some of the worst defenses in the NFL. Prior to last weeks game against Washington who had the #4 defense in YPP allowed they faced Atlanta twice, Minnesota and Detroit. Facing those defenses will inflate anyone’s offensive numbers. I expect the Saints defense to slow down Tampa Bay as they will make Tampa one dimensional and if Brady has to throw it 40+ times bad things are going to happen. TAKE NEW ORLEANS as my 4% NFL SUNDAY BEST BET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

10* NFL Divisional Game of the Year

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

NBA
4 - Utah -1

Golf
4 - N. Taylor +125 over Kevin Na

[Roadie]

Any sterling... he’s been red hot

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Godfatherlocks january 17th picks
(entire day. No email at 5:30pm)

5 picks
nfl, nba & ncaa basketball
two 2000 unit picks (nfl)
three 1000 unit picks (nba & ncaab)

*** top rated 2000 unit picks ***

#1 - new orleans saints -2.5 (nfl)

#2 - kansas city chiefs -9.5 (nfl)


*** mega 1000 unit picks ***

#1 - chicago bulls +7 (nba)

#2 - los angeles clippers -6.5 (nba)

#3 - penn state nittany lions +5 (ncaab)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA, Inc.

10* Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs Over 57 (-105)

[dawggy]

TEDDY COVERS




Game: (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Jan 17 2021 6:40 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-105)

5% Big Ticket: Take Tampa Bay (#307)
My clients and I cashed a winning bet AGAINST the Bucs last week and we cashed another winning bet ON the Saints. Yet this week, I’m loading up on Tampa plus the points in New Orleans! What gives?
Let me start with this – we were lucky to win either bet. I was only right about half the handicap (Washington was bet ON, Chicago was bet AGAINST) in both games. Here’s what I wrote about the Bucs last week:
“Tom Brady’s Kryptonite is a defensive line that can create pressure without blitzing. Washington has a top five pressure rate, which has resulted in a bevy of forced turnovers. Montez Sweat and Chase Young are the most dangerous defensive end duo in the league right now. Brady has been ‘off and on’ for extended stretches this season and I’m not convinced this is a good matchup for him.”
That handicap was dead wrong. The Bucs offensive line was able to control the line of scrimmage throughout. Yes, Brady took three sacks, but for most of the day, his uniform was clean thanks to that strong OL play. The only reason my clients & I covered the spread was due to red zone failures; only one TD in five tries for Tampa, not a long term problem for this Super Bowl contender. And it’s worth noting how comfortable Brady was, resulting in a bevy of big plays. FIVE different Bucs receivers caught a pass for longer than 20 yards and Gronk didn’t even make a catch. I do NOT expect the Saints defensive front to control the flow here – not with Tampa’s offensive line playing as well as they have all year right now!
Here’s what I wrote about the Saints – more incorrect analysis: “The Saints have played the last month without three of their top four wide receivers, including gamebreaker Michael Thomas. Their entire running back room was on COVID restriction last week, ruled out at Carolina. I expect just about everybody from both groups to play here, giving this offense an element of explosiveness they’ve lacked down the stretch.”
Last week’s game against the Bears made it very clear. The Saints late season offensive weaknesses were not solely the result of the injuries to their receiving corps. New Orleans is not getting elite level offensive line play right now. And Drew Brees clearly doesn’t have the arm strength at this stage of the season – and his career – to stretch the defense with downfield shots. Everything is dink & dunk; not an offense with much big play ability at this stage of the campaign, nor an offense with the capacity to erase deficits if they fall behind.
I’m well aware that the Saints defense gave Tom Brady trouble in both previous meetings this season. On opening day, Brady’s pick six was a real turning point, as was Tampa’s -3 turnover margin. That said, the Saints offense only gained 4.1 yards per play in that game. The rematch was just ‘one of those games’ where everything went wrong for Tampa and right for New Orleans from the opening kick – the worst half of football Tampa played all year.
The Bucs are a different team now than they were in Week 9 – they’ve gotten steadily better (as expected for a team that made major transitions last offseason without any benefit of preseason contests). The Bucs haven’t lost a game by more than a field goal since. Brady is NOT out of steam by January, like we saw last year and we’re seeing with Drew Brees now. Meanwhile, the Saints haven’t beaten a single team that’s Over .500 since that win over the Bucs, and we’ve seen New Orleans – repeatedly in the Sean Payton era – blow playoff games like this one at home. Prior to last week, their last home win & cover in the playoffs came in 2011 against the Lions. I’m not expecting them to get another one here. Be sure to sprinkle at least a little something on the Bucs moneyline in a game I expect them to win. Big Ticket: Take the Buccaneers.
Line Parameter: 5% at +3 or higher, 4% at +2.5 or lower








Game: (539) Chicago Bulls at (540) Dallas Mavericks
Date/Time: Jan 17 2021 3:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Dallas Mavericks -6.5 (-110)

3% Take Dallas (#540). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before 11 AM Pacific Time.

Game: (547) Indiana Pacers at (548) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: Jan 17 2021 10:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Indiana Pacers +6.5 (-110)

3% Take Indiana (#547). Teddy's write-up will be posted here before noon Pacific Time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4Deep Bets - Tommy G

SUNDAY

KC/CLEV

PENDING



Parlay +114: Alabama -310, Packers -295,Chiefs -480 (5 to win 5.7u) MAX
Parlay +243: Alabama -310, Packers -295,Chiefs -480, Saints -166 (3 to win 7.29)


MAX BETS



Landry over 4.5 receptions -140 (10u) DOUBLE MAX
Hooper over 3.5 receptions -142 (5u) MAX
Mahomes over 2.5 TD -105 (5u )MAX
Mahomes +115 to throw for the most yards Sunday (5u) MAX
Both teams to score 1 TD each half -128 (5u) MAX


PROPS



Mahomes over 16.5 rushing-155 (3u)
Hill over 81.5 receiving (3u)
Hardman over 34.5 receiving (3u)
1 TD each quarter -110 (3u)
Mahomes over 38.5 longest pass (3u)
Mahomes 300 and 3 TD +195 (2u)
Tyreek 100 and KC win +176 (2u)
Kelce 100 and KC win +172 (2u)





Hill TD -155 (2u), 1st TD +600 (.5), 2TD +360 (1u)
Kelce TD -150 (2u), 1st TD +650 (.5), 2TD +380 (1u))





Landry 100 and TD +650 (.5 to win 3.25)
Chubb 100 and TD +380 (1 to win 3.8)
Mahomes 300 and Hill 100 +230 (1 to win 2.5)
Mahomes 300 and Kelce 100 +250 (1 to win 2.5)
Mahomes 400 yards and a KC win +500 (0.5 to win 2.5)
Parlay: KC -16.5, Saints -9.5 +845 (0.5 to win 4.22)
Parlay: KC -23.5, Saints -13.5 +2012 (0.5 to win 10.6)
Chiefs win by 19-24 +575 (0.5 to win 2.87)
Both teams to score 2 TD each half +1000 (0.5 to win 5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

400% New Orleans -2'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Sports Plays

Tampa Bay +3/ML +135 (GOY)

Kansas City -9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

added

3 - Bucs/Saints Under 52
3 - Nuggets -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Rainey / Rainman

3☆ Chiefs -9'
3☆ Saints -3

��

1☆ Virginia Tech -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Coastal Sports
Top- OVER-TB

EndZone
CLEV

Gold Key
75 KC

Inside Edge
3 OVER-TB

Masters Edge
75 KC

National Sportsline
5 TBAY

Premier Picks
7 OVER-KC

Preferred Picks
5 TBAY

Sports Advisor
3 OVER-TB

Sports One
5 CLEVE , TBAY

Sun Belt Sportswire
4 TBAY

Vegas Steam
5 KCITY

Victory Sports
Top- UNDER-KC , UNDER-TB

VIP Sports
200 KCITY

WorldWager
Str- KCITY

[Istandfortheanthem]

Has anybody seen Paul Leiner 3000 must win play or you get $150 credit on his site? It’s for the afternoon game.

Thanks in advance!! GL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merrill

5% NOR/TB over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lenny Stevens
20 saints
10 chiefs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Missanelli

kc
saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TGR

NCAAB TOTAL OF THE DAY - Bradley - UNDER 123.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KIEV O'NEIL

added

NJIT+3 – 1.5 star

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS R. FARLEY

Saints -3 (-115), 2 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Insiders

NFL Playoff LOCK of the Week! ---- BUCS +3 over Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Codycovers

300 unit Tampa +3
200 unit chiefs -9

200 unit Capitals ML
200 unit Panthers ML

200 unit Pacers +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA, Inc.

10* Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs Over 57 (-105)

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – Cleveland @ Kansas City, Sunday at 3 PM ET - High total here but we still don’t think It’s high enough. Both of these teams have a strong potential to reach the 30’s in this game and we wouldn’t doubt it if both get above that number. KC has had a few weeks off so we know HC Andy Reid will have a number of new wrinkles on offense. He always has his team ready offensively but especially so in the playoffs with time off. The last 2 years in the division round (week off heading into the game) the Chiefs have scored 82 combined points or 41 PPG. They are facing the weakest defense remaining in the playoffs as Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA defense. Speaking of the weakest defense remaining, KC is right their with Browns ranking 22nd DVOA defense (the 2nd worst defense left in the post season). Both defenses weaknesses match up very poorly with the opposing offense. KC is 31st DVOA rush defense and Cleveland is one of the top running teams in the league ranking 7th DVOA rush offense. On the other side, the Browns are poor at slowing down opposing pass offenses ranking 25th DVOA defense vs the pass and KC’s pass offense is fantastic ranking 2nd DVOA pass offense. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up big numbers in this game. The Chiefs reached 30+ points in 9 of their 15 games (we are excluding the final regular season game when they sat Mahomes and starters) including games vs Saints, Ravens, and the Dolphins, all top 5 scoring defenses. The Browns offensive numbers are lower than they should be on the season as they played 3 games at home in extremely high winds & 1 game without their entire WR corps. If we subtract those games Cleveland averaged 30 PPG and that includes a 6 point performance in the season opener @ Baltimore and a 7 point performance @ Pittsburgh. They hit 30+ points vs some very good defenses as well including Pittsburgh (last week), Baltimore (in 2nd meeting), Indianapolis, and Washington. We know Mahomes will put up big numbers, however Cleveland QB Mayfield has been playing great as well down the stretch throwing for 2000 yards, 14 TD’s and 1 interception since Thanksgiving. We know Cleveland will have to “keep up” on the scoreboard here and they are more than capable of doing so. OVER is the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

10* PERFECT STORM

KC Chiefs

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 3:05 ET. The Browns scored 14 seconds into their game at Pittsburgh last Sunday and led 28-0 at the end of the second quarter! Cleveland was without head coach Kevin Stefanski, who tested positive for COVID-19, and assorted other coaches and players because of protocol related to the pandemic. The Browns had limited practice time NONE of that mattered. The Browns were playing their first playoff game since 2002 and walked away with the team's first playoff victory since beating the Pats on New Year's Day 1995 (1994 season), 48-37. However, as a reward Cleveland (No. 6 seed) will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the defending champion KC Chiefs, who earned the AFC's No. 1 seed by going 14-2. Baker Mayfield matured this season and threw for 263 yards with three TDs and no interceptions last week in Pittsburgh. He has not thrown an interception in his last FIVE games. Cleveland averaged 148.4 YPG on the ground, the most for the franchise since 1978. Browns RB Kareem Hunt (841 yards) will face the Chiefs for the first time since they released him but the star RB is Nick Chubb, who is the first player since Miami's Mercury Morris in 1972 to rush for at least 1,000 yards (1,067) and score 12 TDs (he had 12) on 190 or fewer attempts. However, when one talks about offensive stars, Patrick Mahomes shines as bright as any. He was second in the NFL with 4,740 yards passing and fourth with 38 TD passes despite sitting out Week 17. Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire was fourth among rookies with 1,100 yards from scrimmage despite missing three games to injuries. Tyreek Hill was second among WRs with 17 total TDs this season and unanimous All-Pro TE Travis Kelce had 1,416 yards receiving in 15 games (catches), the most in a season by a TE in NFL history. Neither team had a good ATS record this season (KC was 7-9 and Cleveland 6-10) but I have ZERO interest in bucking Mahomes, who has 13 TDs and ZERO interceptions in four postseason starts at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs scored at least 31 points in each of their three postseason wins a year ago and while Cleveland FINALLY won a postseason game, it came over a Pittsburgh team that after opening 11-0, lost FIVE of its final six games. The lone win came 28-24 over the Colts, a contest in which Pittsburgh trailed 24-7 late in the fourth quarter. KC is NO Pittsburgh. The Chiefs tied a league-high with SEVEN players picked for the Pro Bowl, led the NFL in total offense Kansas City (415.8 YPG) and even the oft-maligned defense ranked fifth in the AFC in allowing 22.6 PPG. The Browns are coming off their first playoff win since the 1994 season and COVID-19 has wreaked havoc with the Browns in recent weeks. More injuries came in the win at Pittsburgh and let's NOT forget Big Ben did throw for 501 yards against the Browns VERY shaky secondary. Think Mahomes noticed anything in that game film? With a win, the Chiefs would be the first AFC team to host three consecutive conference championship games. Book it, as Sunday's win comes "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Silverstein
FLORIDA FAVORITE
2:45 PM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -8
The absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not enough for me to back off the Chiefs now that the line has dropped two points ahead of kickoff. I did think Kansas City was overvalued as a double-digit favorite, but it is going to be able to move the ball just fine. Lots of money has been made over the years trusting Andy Reid off bye weeks, and I like KC to put it all together in crunch time as Cleveland comes down off its high from last week. The Chiefs have been one of the most frustrating teams to bet on ATS this season, but I like Travis Kelcie to have a tremendous outing and be the difference maker in the game.

+493 16-10-1 IN LAST 27 NFL ATS PICKS
+782 20-11-2 IN LAST 33 KC ATS PICKS
+510 14-8 IN LAST 22 CLE ATS PICKS

Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
2:08 PM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -8
I was on the fence with this spread at -10 but heavy action on the Browns has dropped it to -8. Now I think it's solid value on Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs are just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games but I think some of that can be chalked up to boredom. Andy Reid is also money coming off a bye in his career, going 14-7-1 ATS in the regular season and 2-0 ATS in the playoffs since Patrick Mahomes took over as starter.

+60 5-4 IN LAST 9 CLE ATS PICKS

[onetrikpony]

Any sterling... he’s been red hot
Sterling 25* Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

76ers-Thunder postponed