Saturday 1/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

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NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Brighton at Leeds United

Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: January 16, 2021 10AM EST

Play: Brighton +0.5 (-125)

England Premier League

Brighton is one of those teams that has deserved better this year. They currently are just above the relegation zone with a 2-8-8 record and -8 goal differential and they haven’t won a game since November 21 at Aston Villa.

However, if you look closer at their results, they only have five losses in their last 14 games as they have played to eight draws during that time. Those losses came against Tottenham, Southampton, Leicester, Arsenal and Man City just this past week and only one of those teams has a negative xG differential. That’s notable here because Leeds has a negative goal differential at -0.28.

When looking at Leeds record in the table, they are nine points above Brighton with a 7-2-8 record but still have a -3 goal differential thanks to owning the 2nd worst defense in the league, conceding 33 goals thru 17 games. Of all 98 teams in the Top 5 European Leagues, they allow the 6th most xGA per game.

Now if we look closer at their results, of their seven wins, only one of them has come against teams with a positive goal differential while five of their wins have come against the five teams with the worst xG differential in the league in West Brom, Fulham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Burnley. And of course Brighton come in with a positive goal differential of +0.13.

Long story short, Brighton really only loses to the Top teams in the league while Leeds only beat the worst teams in the league and according to xG, Brighton is the 8th best team in the league while Leeds is #14.

I simply cannot trust Leeds defense here laying any goals and will gladly grab the number on Brighton

TAKE BRIGHTON +0.5

Line Parameter: 4% to +0.25, but pay up to -140 to get +0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin Event: (601) Ohio State at (602) Illinois
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Illinois -5.0 (-110)
This line is not going to hold, so try to play now if possible. Already seeing -5.5 and even one -6. Simple stuff for me. It's been a season to date where playing on top teams off a loss has been very productive. Illinois is off a loss and it was a game where they shot way below their norm from the field. It was also a home loss so I would definitely expect a rebound here. The Illini have gone 3-0 off a loss so far by a combined 59 points. I don't see this being a 20 point blowout but it doesn't need to be at the current tag. Ohio State is absolutely a quality team and the Buckeyes are in good form. But if it's not broken don't try to fix it and I'm feeling loads of good results backing top teams in this situation. Illinois minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (201333) Udinese at (201334) Sampdoria
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 2PM EST
Play: Total Over 2.5 (+100)
Seven of Sampdoria's last eight Serie A games have featured both teams to score as they continue to struggle defensively, and the Blues rank bottom five in the league on expected goals against, giving up 1.76 xga on average.
And while Udinese do rank as one of Serie A's best defenses on the season, of late they've really struggled, actually ranking 2nd last in the league in 2021, giving up 4.85 xga across their last two games.
We see goals in this one and like both teams to get on the scoresheet and push this one over the total on Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Cris Event: (301) Los Angeles Rams at (302) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Los Angeles Rams +7.0 (-110)
(17-7 71% Free plays). Rams +7) Last week I put Saints here as a play I was looking to place a wager on after checking the lay of the land. This is exactly the same situation. I like the Rams in this matchup but we need to bide our time to see what the story really is with the Injuries. (So, Cris, WTF This isn't a play) No, Mr Helper, it isn't, but this is the opportunity like last week, to have an idea of what I'm thinking. Lets see how the Injuries and narratives shape, and if all is good, I plan to play the Rams here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs Event: (301) Los Angeles Rams at (302) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers Event: (301) Los Angeles Rams at (302) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110)
Take Green Bay (#302)
Things in life I don’t trust:


Jared Goff catching less than a touchdown in a matchup against Aaron Rodgers
Jared Goff’s bad thumb against a defense that can create pressure and turnovers
Warm weather LA teams playing in Wisconsin in January
Sean McVay’s play calling once his team falls behind

And there’s one trend worth noting as well. In the divisional round, teams off a loss in the conference championship game last year – like the Packers – are particularly motivated to open the playoffs the following year, to the tune of 43-7 SU, 33-15-2 ATS. When they’re facing an opponent off a double digit win – like the one the Rams notched last week – those teams are 21-3 ATS. Throw in a 3-9 ATS run for teams playing back-2-back road games in the playoffs and the case for the home favorite is perfectly clear. Take the Packers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek Event: (24129) Justin Tafa at (24130) Carlos Felipe
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 6PM EST
Play: Total Over 1.5 (-185)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (533) Atlanta Hawks at (534) Portland Trail Blazers
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -4.0 (-110)
Two teams off really disappointing nights last time out in overall metrics, but it's the Blazers we expect to bounceback here.
Portland were absolutely abysmal from the floor in Thursday night's loss against the Indiana Pacers, racking up just 87 points (well down from their 116.0 ppg average, 6th highest in the league) and had a mammoth drop-off of 9.0% (44.3%) on their effective field goal percentage, down from their season average of 53.3%.
Portland are the better team here and we expect a big bounceback from them tonight minus the short price.
Take the Blazers minus the points for Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/ben-burns) - SOCCER - Sat, Jan 16 at 10:00 AM
FREE Burnley FC vs West Ham
West Ham -117 (BetOnline (https://record.commissionkings.ag/_mflJQWEiC-BqkvbhkiKqDGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/))

Burnley has given West Ham some trouble in the past. However, there's a considerable difference in the way the two clubs have played this season. Entering the weekend, West Ham has been solid and sits in 10th in the standings. The Irons have scored 24 goals while conceding 21. On the other hand, Burnley has managed a mere nine goals, tied with Sheffield for the lowest mark in the league. At the same time, Burnley has conceded 21. West Ham is undefeated in 2021, winning an FA Cup Game while also beating Everton in EPL action. Consider West Ham.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/scott-rickenbach) - SOCCER - Sat, Jan 16 at 10:00 AM
Scott Rickenbach EPL Free Pick Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United Over 2.75 (-118) (BetOnline (https://record.commissionkings.ag/_mflJQWEiC-BqkvbhkiKqDGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/))

OVER the total in Leeds United vs Brighton & Hove - Of course I am aware of the recent trend of many unders in Premier League action. However, this one certainly should buck that trend and I will take advantage of the additional value here as this one has dropped in some books after opening at a total of 3 goals. I understand the drop below 3 because of the overall recent trending in the league but that is merely serving to give us line value here. Leeds United is averaging nearly 2 goals per match this season but also allowing nearly 2 goals per match. Brighton & Hove is averaging 1.2 goals per match on the road this season but the reason this team has only 2 wins on the season is they are not exactly a powerhouse in terms of defending their won goal and they have allowed nearly 2 goals per match. This one is a value play all the way and I won't pass up on it as I fade the line move. OVER the total in Leeds United

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA, Inc. (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/asa-inc) - NCAAB - Sat, Jan 16 at 1:30 PM
ASA Free Pick Saturday CBB San Diego State vs Utah State
San Diego State +4 (-105) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

#625 ASA FREE PLAY ON San Diego State +4 over Utah State, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - We always like considering good teams off losses and that’s what we have here. Not only did SDSU lose on Thursday night, they lost to this Utah State team. The Aztecs lost by 12 in that Thursday loss but shot terribly at 31% making only 17 of their 54 shot attempts. They are one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (36th) but only mad 24% of their shots from beyond the arc in that loss. It was their worst offensive outing of the year by a wide margin. Earlier in the season they were in a similar situation losing to Colorado State on the road on a Saturday and then beating them by 13 just 2 days later. We were on SDSU on that game and expect a similar outcome here. Utah State is a solid 10-3 on the year however Thursday was their first win over a top 100 opponent. The 3 other top 100 opponents they had faced before Thursday (VCU, BYU, and South Dakota State) all resulted in losses with 2 of those setbacks coming by double digits. Beyond those game, plus their game vs San Diego State, the Aggies haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. Utah State was favored by just 1 point on Thursday and now they are laying 3.5 here which we feel is a bad number. San Diego State has been solid bounce back team covering 8 of their last 10 off a loss including both games following their 2 losses this year prior to Thursday. We like SDSU to win this one outright.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al McMordie (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/al-mcmordie) - NCAAB - Sat, Jan 16 at 2:00 PM
Big Al's FREE Minnesota/Michigan Winner! Michigan vs Minnesota
Minnesota +6 (-102) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

At 2 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan. This is a huge revenge spot for #23-ranked Minnesota, which lost in Ann Arbor 10 days ago, 82-57. And Michigan followed up that 25-point blowout with an even more impressive 23-point rout against #9-ranked Wisconsin -- a game Michigan once led by 40 points. But off those two huge wins, a letdown is in order this afternoon in Minneapolis. And it's certainly worth noting that Michigan is a horrid 6-27 ATS on the Big 10 road against an opponent off a loss, if Michigan won at home against a conference foe in its previous game (and also won 2 games back). Take Minnesota + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/sean-murphy) - NBA - Sat, Jan 16 at 5:05 PM
Sean Murphy's Saturday NBA Winner Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs -6.5 (-115) (BetOnline (https://record.commissionkings.ag/_mflJQWEiC-BqkvbhkiKqDGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/))

Saturday NBA Free play. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Houston at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs got caught flat-footed against the new-look Rockets on Thursday night, perhaps overlooking Houston following the blockbuster trade involving James Harden. Here, I look for a far more focused effort from San Antonio as it looks to bounce back on its home floor. Meanwhile, we can't expect the Rockets to bring that same level of intensity and cohesion we saw on Thursday every night. Say what you want about the return they got in the Harden deal but the fact is, they're no longer true contenders in the crowded Western Conference - at least not this season. We did win with the Spurs earlier this week in their much-needed victory in Oklahoma City. If they were to drop a second straight game to the Rockets at home that 'W' would have been all for not. This is a step-up spot for San Antonio and I'm confident it will do just that. Take San Antonio (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/jim-feist) - NFL - Sat, Jan 16 at 8:15 PM
Jim Feist's FREE NFL Play, Saturday, Jan 16 Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Under 49.5 (-105) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

The 11-5 Baltimore Ravens take on the 13-3 Buffalo Bills in this AFC Divisional playoff matchup. The Ravens lead this series with the Bills 6-3. These teams last met in 2019 in a Baltimore win, 24-17. The Ravens have been good to bettors this year, going 10-5-1 ATS. They are 8-5-1 when a dog of at least 1.5-points. The Bills defense isn't anywhere near as dominating as it was last year, with it ranking mostly in the bottom half of the league. The Bills have a potent offense, scoring 31.3 ppg this year. The Ravens offense average 29.2 ppg this year. Ever since Baltimore survived their COVID breakout, they have been playing their best ball of the season. Lamar Jackson got his first playoff win after winning MVP last year and losing his first postseason game. The Ravens should keep the ball out of Josh Allen and the Bills highly explosive passing attack. The Ravens are great at controlling the close and running ball. Their defense also is very good and 2nd in the league in third down stops. Always have to look to the weather here in Buffalo this time of year. The winds will pick up as the game goes along with up to 18 mph winds. The temps will be cold but above freezing in the mid-30's and there could be light snow showers. Your FREE play is on the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers (https://www.bigal.com/handicappers/will-rogers) - NBA - Sat, Jan 16 at 10:05 PM
Will's TOP FREE NBA Play! Atlanta Hawks vs Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers -4 (-108) (BetAnySports (https://affiliates.betanysports.eu/tracking/Affiliate.aspx?idBook=3&mediaTypeID=220&des=4&AffUrlID=1314&LandingPageID=1))

The set-up: I think the Blazers are the correct call here, as I expect the Hawks to come in flat-footed here after their loss in Utah just last night. The Blazers on the other hand have had a night off to absorb a poor 111-87 home defeat to the Pacers and I look for a much better effort here in this very favorable matchup. The pick: Both teams are dealing with injury issues, but the backcourt of Lillard and McCollum will just be too much for this young Hawks team to deal with in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, as note that Atlanta has indeed struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games after failing to score 100 points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous game and playing on no rest. Consider Portland on Saturday night. This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Blazers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Divisional Odds: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Moves
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady and the Bucs are 0-2 SU and ATS against the Saints this season, but they'll get a third crack in the NFC divisional round. The SuperBook opened New Orleans -5.5 and very quickly went to -3.5.

NFL divisional playoff betting is on deck, and NFL divisional round odds are on the board and getting action for the four matchups. Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the surprising Cleveland Browns, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints meet for the third time this season.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL divisional playoff opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Divisional Round Odds
https://www.bettorschat.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=10865&d=1610377003

Rams at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -7, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles and its banged-up quarterback corps somehow went to Seattle on Wild Card Weekend and knocked out the third-seeded Seahawks 30-20 Saturday. Jared Goff didn't start for the Rams against Seattle, due to his thumb injury, but backup John Wolford suffered a neck injury in the first quarter, and Goff had to jump in. On Sunday night, both were questionable for the Saturday night divisional game.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and top-seeded Green Bay had a bye week and got some rest this weekend.

"Not much action to report there," Murray said Sunday night, noting the line was stable at Packers -7. "We were happy to see this game in the first time slot of the weekend. If that was the last game of the weekend, every parlay would've gone to the Packers, and it could've been a huge-exposure game."


Ravens at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Josh Allen and No. 2 seed Buffalo stemmed Indianapolis' late comeback bid to claim a 30-27 victory Saturday, the Bills' first playoff win since the 1995-96 season. Fifth-seeded Baltimore went to No. 4 seed Tennesee on Sunday and dug itself a 10-0 first-quarter hole, but didn't give up another point until the fourth quarter in a 20-13 victory.

"The Bills are still at -2.5. That's gonna be a huge-handle game," Murray said. "The public loves both teams right now. Great two-way volume."


Browns at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -9.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved
Cleveland punched No. 3 seed Pittsburgh in the mouth by taking a 28-0 first-quarter lead, largely aided by three turnovers, then held the Steelers enough in check to notch a 48-37 victory Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, meanwhile, rested up for the divisional round, getting a bye week as the AFC's No. 1 seed.

"The Chiefs are up to -10 from -9.5, but that could come down," Murray said. "I think the Browns will be a very square 'dog on Sunday."


Buccaneers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -5.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and fifth-seeded Tampa Bay got more than they could've expected from backup Washington QB Taylor Heinicke, but prevailed 31-23 on Wild Card Saturday. On Wild Card Sunday, No. 2 seed New Orleans slogged to a 21-9 win over Chicago, setting up the third meeting this season between these NFC South rivals.

The Saints won both regular-season clashes, opening the season with a 34-23 home victory, then posting a 38-3 rout at Tampa on Nov 8. But early action was swift on the underdog Bucs.

"We opened Saints -5.5 and the sharp guys flooded us with Bucs bets, so that disappeared quickly," Murray said Sunday night. "We moved down to -3.5."

The total was also on the move Sunday night, jumping up two points to 51.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Divisional Round Betting Tips: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Early money thinks Buffalo was lucky to escape the Colts in the Wild Card Round and is taking the Bills down from -3 to -2.5 vs. Baltimore. If your money is on Bills Mafia in the Divisional Round, wait and see how low this spread with go.

The NFL playoffs are down to four final matchups for Divisional Round betting and the spreads and totals for those games still have that new car smell after hitting the board late Sunday night.

These will be some of the toughest NFL lines to beat all season, as bookies and bettors know the remaining eight teams inside and out. That makes getting the best of the number all that more important and remains the sharpest NFL betting strategy for the Divisional Round games.

These are our best NFL betting tips for which Divisional Round odds to bet now and which ones to bet later.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7): Bet Now

The Packers earned one of the exclusive postseason byes into the Divisional Round, giving them time to rest up and study their potential opponents. Aaron Rodgers & Co. finished the schedule on a six-game winning streak, averaging 33.5 points per game during that red-hot run (4-2 ATS)

The Rams defense will put that scoring attack to the test. Los Angeles smothered the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Round and has limited its last five foes to 14.6 points per contest. However, L.A. does have some injury concerns entering the next round of the playoffs. Pass rush god Aaron Donald is nursing tender ribs, top WR Cooper Kupp is cutting on a sore knee, and QB Jared Goff is still healing up from thumb surgery just three weeks ago (remember, he didn't get the start in the Wild Card Round). All three are expected to suit up, however.

Some books are dealing the Packers as touchdown chalk while others are at Green Bay -7.5. The weather in Wisconsin is going to be cooler than a polar bear’s toe nails this weekend and the Pack are 4-2 SU and ATS at Lambeau Field in the postseason since Rodgers took over the QB1 gig. If you’re taking a big bite of Cheese this weekend, make sure you get it now at -7 and avoid having that half-point hook stuck in your throat.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-3): Bet Later

Even before the Browns and Steelers were at halftime, some online books had this AFC Divisional Round spread on the board. Buffalo opened as a field goal fave at home but the vig was giving back +106, indicating that any early money on Baltimore could bump this under the key number of a field goal.

Buffalo edged Indianapolis by three points as touchdown chalk at home in the Wild Card Round, despite the Colts purely outplaying the Bills, out-gaining them 472 yards to 397 yards and dominating time of possession to the tune of 34:17.

All the Ravens did this past weekend was go into Tennessee and earn their sixth straight win and cover with a solid two-way effort, most notably limiting the Titans’ fourth-ranked scoring attack to just 13 points. Momentum is worth its weight in gold during the postseason.

Some offshore books have already taken this spread down a half-point tick, dealing Buffalo -2.5 (-120). If your bookie is still hanging Bills -3 and you like the home side in this AFC Divisional Round war, wait it out. This one could fall even further before kickoff this weekend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Under 51.5): Bet Later

To quote San Diego news legend Ronald Burgundy, “Boy that escalated quickly.”

The total for this NFC South trilogy hit the board as low as 49.5 points at some books and within minutes bounded as high as 51.5 (Over -115). Even after the Saints slow-played the Chicago Bears to a 21-9 win in the Wild Card Round, bettors are backing a fireworks display in the Big Easy this weekend.

This will be the third time these divisional foes have faced each other this season, with the teams going Over the 48.5-point total at NOLA way back in Week 1 and staying Under the 51 in Tampa in Week 9. The Saints won both games with scores of 34 and 38 points—the two highest point totals allowed by the Buccaneers this season.

But, besides all the offensive weaponry on both depth charts, we also have the No. 2 versus No. 5 defenses in DVOA at Football Outsiders butting heads in the Superdome. Neither team can afford the other to build momentum, so expect some offense on defense and a slower, plodding pace as they each try to ice their respective rival future Hall of Fame QB.

The Brady vs. Brees hype could continue adding points to this total, so if you like lower-scoring football, see if it goes 52 or higher before coming back on the Under.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (Under 54.5): Bet Now

How quick do you have to be to get the best of the NFL odds? Well, as of this writing the Browns are still working on the Steelers and some online books have already hung a line on Cleveland-Kansas City. For our purposes, we’re looking at the opening total of 54.5 points.

Cleveland just swamped Pittsburgh with plenty of points, however, some of that scoreboard work came from the defense. The Browns benefitted from a nightmare first half from Ben Roethlisberger and received plenty of extra reps with the football, so we’re not as smitten with this scoring attack as we are with Cleveland’s defense.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is Kansas City. Points could fall from the skies over Arrowhead this Sunday. But so could snow. The extended forecast in Missouri is calling for a chance of the white stuff this weekend. The Chiefs stop unit has snoozed a bit in the second half of the schedule but allows just 22 points per home game and can find another gear in the postseason, coming into the Divisional Round rested and ready off the bye.

If you like the Under, I’m going to say grab it now. The Browns offense isn’t as good as it looked in the Wild Card and staying ahead of possible bad weather is a smart move. Start following those Kansas City meteorologists on Twitter.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

301LA RAMS -302 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in home games vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

303BALTIMORE -304 BUFFALO
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 16

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LA RAMS (11 - 6) at GREEN BAY (13 - 3) - 1/16/2021, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 122-88 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 207-150 ATS (+42.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 78-51 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (12 - 5) at BUFFALO (14 - 3) - 1/16/2021, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games in playoff games since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Division Round

Trend Report

Saturday, January 16

LA Rams @ Green Bay
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Baltimore @ Buffalo
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFC Divisional Round Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the NFC Championship continues this weekend in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round as four teams will look to advance to the conference championship game.

A pair of division winners (Washington and Seattle) has been eliminated, while Wild Card teams Tampa Bay and Los Angeles picked up road wins.

After losing in the NFC Championship last season, the Green Bay Packers own home-field advantage in the NFC as they are the top seed at 13-3.

NFC Matchups

1 Green Bay vs. 6 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans vs. 5 Tampa Bay

Odds to Win NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers +135
New Orleans Saints +200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +360
Los Angeles Rams +800

Matchup - L.A. Rams vs. Green Bay

Date: Saturday, January 16
Venue: Lambeau Field
Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV-Time: FOX, 4:35 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Packers -7, Total 46

L.A. Rams Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Green Bay Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

The Packers and Rams last met in 2018 at the Los Angeles Coliseum as L.A. edged Green Bay, 29-27 as 7.5-point favorites. It marked the first win for the Rams over the Packers since 2006, but Green Bay has covered six consecutive matchups between the two teams.

Playoff Notes

This is the third ever meeting between these clubs in the postseason as the St. Louis Rams and the "Greatest Show on Turf" bounced Green Bay in the 2001 Divisional Round, 45-17.

The Rams are 3-2 SU/ATS under head coach Sean McVay in the playoffs after L.A. eliminated Seattle in the Wild Card Round, 30-20. That marked only the second 'over' in McVay's five playoff appearances.

The Packers are 10-8 with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback in the playoffs since 2009, which includes a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS mark at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in the Divisional Playoffs when having the bye, but the two victories came by exactly five points apiece.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AFC Divisional Round Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the AFC Championship goes through Kansas City as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will take the field for the first time in the postseason.

The top-seeded Chiefs host the Browns, who shocked the Steelers in the Wild Card round to win their first playoff game since 1994.

The Bills last won a postseason game in 1995 prior to their victory over the Colts on Saturday. Buffalo advances to host Baltimore, who knocked out Tennessee in the Wild Card round.

AFC Matchups

1 Kansas City vs. 6 Cleveland
2 Buffalo vs. 5 Baltimore

Odds to Win AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs -125
Buffalo Bills +280
Baltimore Ravens +400
Cleveland Browns +1200

Matchup - Baltimore vs. Buffalo

Date: Saturday, January 16
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Bills -2, Total 50

Baltimore Road Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Buffalo Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

These squads did not meet this season, but Baltimore won at Buffalo in 2019 as 6.5-point favorites, 24-17. Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes in the victory, marking the fifth straight win for Baltimore over Buffalo since 2010.

Playoff Notes

The Ravens improved to 6-1 in the Wild Card round under head coach John Harbaugh with the 20-13 triumph over Tennessee, avenging last season's loss to the Titans in the divisional round.

However, Baltimore owns a 2-3 road record in the divisional round during Harbaugh's tenure with the two wins coming at Tennessee in 2008 and at Denver in 2012, which ultimately led the Ravens capturing Super Bowl XLVII over the 49ers.

Buffalo won its first playoff game in 25 years against Indianapolis, ending a six-game postseason skid dating back to 1995. The last time the Bills picked up a victory in the divisional round of the playoffs came way back in 1993 against the L.A. Raiders, as Buffalo owns a perfect 4-0 record in franchise history at home in this round.

The Ravens and Bills have never faced each other in the playoffs, as Buffalo will have now faced every current team in the AFC North in the postseason at some point in franchise history.


Matchup - Cleveland vs. Kansas City

Date: Sunday January 17
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
TV-Time: CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Chiefs -10, Total 56

Cleveland Road Record: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

This is the second meeting on the pro level between these former Texas Tech quarterbacks as Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs past Baker Mayfield and the Browns, 37-21 as 7.5-point road favorites in 2018.

Kareem Hunt scored three touchdowns for Kansas City, but the running back is now with Cleveland, making for an interesting storyline. The Chiefs and Browns are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time ever, while Cleveland is making its first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2015.

Playoff Notes

The Browns clinched their first postseason berth since 2002, when they ultimately lost to the rival Steelers in the Wild Card round. Fast forward 18 years later, Cleveland jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead to bounce Pittsburgh from the playoffs in a 48-37 triumph as five-point underdogs.

The Chiefs are fresh off their first Super Bowl title in nearly 50 years when they rallied past the 49ers last February. Kansas City is 4-1 in the playoffs with Mahomes as their starting quarterback, including a 3-1 mark at Arrowhead.

AFC top seeds won six consecutive divisional round games from 2013-18 before Baltimore was tripped up by Tennessee in 2019. Kansas City's four postseason victories under Mahomes' guidance have all come by 11 points or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Divisional Round Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Los Angeles' star pass rusher Aaron Donald injured his ribs versus Seattle in the Wild Card Round but is expected to play versus Green Bay in the Divisional Round.

A wild Wild Card Weekend is in the past, NFL Divisional Round odds are up, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably surrounding Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff and defensive lineman Aaron Donald.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Divisional Round Injuries

Los Angeles Rams: Star defensive lineman Aaron Donald left the Rams' road victory over Seattle with a rib injury, X-rays for which came back negative, but he's questionable for Saturday's game at Green Bay. Jared Goff (thumb) didn't start against the Seahawks, but backup John Wolford (neck) was injured early, forcing Goff to come in and lead the Rams to victory. As of Monday, coach Sean McVay hadn't committed to who would start against the Packers. Interestingly, however, The SuperBook moved the Rams from +7 to +6.5 Monday night

Buffalo Bills: Second-leading rusher Zack Moss (ankle) is out for the remainder of the postseason. The Bills opened -2.5 and on Monday afternoon dipped to -1.5 at The SuperBook for Saturday's home game against Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns: Cleveland is dealing with a potential cluster-injury situation on the offensive line, with guard Michael Dunn (calf) and right tackle Jack Conklin (hamstring) questionable for Sunday's game at Kansas City. The Browns opened +10 at The SuperBook and were still +10 Monday night.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Running back Ronald Jones II (quad), who sat out the Bucs' Wild Card win over Washington, is questionable for Sunday's game at New Orleans. However, Tampa Bay was at +3 Monday at The SuperBook, quickly moving from an opener of +5.5.


Divisional Round Weather

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay won't quite be the frozen tundra, but per usual in January, it won't be warm Saturday. Game temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s, with winds of 10-15 mph.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: It's a night game Saturday in Buffalo, so it'll be chilly no question. The early forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30s and winds of 10-20 mph. Still, the total ticked up from 49.5 to 50.5 Monday night at The SuperBook.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: The early forecast looks pretty good for a January Sunday in Kansas City, with temperatures in the mid-40s and a light breeze of 5-10 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 54 and quickly got to 55.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Division Round

Saturday’s games

Rams (11-6) @ Green Bay (13-3)
— LA scored a defensive TD in five of their last seven games; they scored one in each of their last four wins.
— In its last three games, Rams’ offense has two TD’s on 34 drives.
— In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
— Rams covered five of seven games as an underdog this year.
— Rams’ last five games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 3-2 SU in playoff games, with wins in New Orleans/Seattle.

— Packers had last week off; last seven years, #1 seeds are 11-3 ATS in this round.
— Green Bay won six in row, eight of last nine games overall.
— Packers scored 33.1 ppg in their last seven games,
— Last four times they were in playoffs, Packers won their first playoff game that season, scoring 31.8 ppg, winning by 5-17-25-5 points.
— Four of last five Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in nine of their last 13 games.

— Green Bay won five of last six series games; Rams won last meeting 29-27 (-7.5) in Coliseum two years ago.
— Rams lost their last two visits to Lambeau, both in the Jeff Fisher era; their last win here was in 2006.
— Green Bay coach LaFleur was Rams’ OC in 2017.

Baltimore (12-5) @ Buffalo (14-3)
— Baltimore won its last six games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— In their last four games, Ravens allowed 10.8 ppg.
— Baltimore scored 25 TD’s on their last 55 drives.
— Ravens covered their one game as a dog this year, December 1st at Pittsburgh.
— Baltimore is 2-3 in playoff games since they won the Super Bowl eight years ago; last week was their first playoff win in six years.
— Ravens covered their last seven games overall.

— Bills won 10 of its last 11 games, covered eight of last nine.
— Buffalo outscored last seven opponents 166-77 in first half.
— Bills were only 2-9 on third down LW; Colts were 9-17.
— Buffalo is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Last week was Buffalo’s first playoff win in 26 years;

— Ravens won last three series games, by combined score of 84-27; they won 24-17 here LY.
— Baltimore lost two of last three visits to Buffalo.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - DP Angles
Matt Blunt

Divisional Playoff Betting Angles

Last week's stuff found some nice winners with the data from here and here, as the 'under' in the Baltimore/Tennessee game had more than one reference point and was never really in question.

The Ravens bucked the trend of the shortest WC favorite losing outright, as the Saints did against the number as the biggest favorite.

Fading Buffalo was also an option as the team that had the best ATS record during the regular season, and the playoff team with the worst – the Cleveland Browns – put together the most shocking performance of the weekend to push that run to 7-1-1 ATS the past nine years now.

Handicapping Cleveland is interesting this week because how much of last week do you throw out of the memory bank with head coach Kevin Stefanski back? Considering how many turnovers Cleveland benefited from in that Pittsburgh win, it almost makes the question a little harder.

The Browns do occupy a rather neat 16-game sample size dating back to realignment that I'll get to a bit later, but first it's a nice angle that comes from a reader's theory (thanks Jay) I was asked to look into before the Wildcard games even kicked off.

After doing the digging, I just hoped it would come up this week or beyond, and it only took the Bills game to go final for it to be applicable.

Therefore my apologies go out to Bills Mafia once again (although we both were happy last week with a Colts cover and Bills SU win), but if Buffalo's playoff run ends this week, I hope for their sake the saying “misery loves company” has some truth to it.

And Buffalo’s old pal Tom Brady could join them on the same ship.

Who's Hot

Since realignment, fading NFL playoff teams that won SU but fail to cover ATS (any round) is 25-8 SU and 15-17-1 ATS since realignment of 2002.

This is quite the angle to grasp but when you boil it down it does make a lot of sense to consider. And the SU and ATS disparity in numbers makes sense as well with it having enough times where it's a possible suspect Wildcard team going on the road against a team off a bye in the Divisional round.

But for it to hold true for all of the final three rounds is still pretty impressive, and quite the memory bank of plays to keep it in consideration every season, especially with it not being applicable once in last year's playoffs.

Teams to win SU but not cover the number could be victimized by lofty expectations on a number that's a TD or bigger like say the Bills and Buccaneers were last week. They could be a -4 favorite that squeaks out a late kick to break a tie/come back to win, or anything in between.

Either way there are some leaks in the games of those squads, and in scenarios where they are either on the road in the Divisional round, up against another very good team with a Super Bowl berth on the line, or in the Super Bowl itself, you advance in the NFL playoffs these days without an ATS win, your playoff run tends to not last much longer.

Who could you follow?

Baltimore
New Orleans

The duality of the SU and ATS numbers does create a few more puzzle pieces in the puzzle this week with the spreads in Buffalo and Tampa both being in the FG or less range.

Only one time in the last nine tries has a NFL team in this spot won the game outright though – 45-42 Jacksonville over Pittsburgh in 2017 – and 2018 saw the Rams make it all the way to the Super Bowl as the beneficiaries of the other end of this trend, beating Dallas after they failed to cover, and getting by New Orleans (won't say “beat” after the no PI) the following week after the Saints failed to cover.

The double-revenge spot for the Bucs is another layer to that cake in the other applicable game, especially with the latter loss being as ugly as it was (38-3 on SNF). Brady has been rather ruthless in his career when he's on a quest for another championship, and maybe that cutthroat nature returns in being the guy to retire Drew Brees.

After all, as great as these two future Hall of Fame QBs have been in their careers, this is also probably the closest thing we get to a WWE-style, “loser retires” matchup in the NFL, although who knows, Brady might go the George Blanda-route and transition to a kicker soon to play until he's 48 as well.

But one of these two may end up showing their age a little bit, in this matchup or beyond (for the winner), and even with this great historical angle suggesting it won't be the end for the Saints, a double revenge angle off the ugliest of losses for the Bucs isn't a spot that's fun to stand in front of either.

Understandable how it's hard to be confident in either side for this game.

Who's Not

Since realignment in 2002, backing NFL playoff teams to allow 30 or more points and win you are 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS. Those games are also 8-7-1 O/U

Cleveland put on quite the performance in that 48-37 win over the Steelers, as it was like everything that went against the Browns the entire week without practicing and coaches missing flipped to good luck all at the same time.

The huge early lead allowed Cleveland to play a soft shell much earlier than they ever would have expected, but the 30+ points they gave up in a win isn't the best omen for thinking they can take down Goliath aka Kansas City.

Who could you fade?

Cleveland Browns

Benefiting from five turnovers won't happen again for the Browns, but getting 10 points can look like a lot when you just saw the team nearly put up 50.

If there ever was a team that would be capable of winning a football game 60-50, it would be a Patrick Mahomes-led KC Chiefs team, and with only one team in each conference getting the bye this year, the positive effects of that time off could easily be amplified.

Yes, there have been plenty of bye teams laying an egg and going the one-and-done route each year, but those games also accounted for 100% of the action during the Divisional Weekend, as opposed to just 50% this season.

Cleveland is still a very bad defense against the pass – Ben Roethlisberger's numbers are considered slightly inflated because of game situation – and now they are going up against the QB who's the future of this game in that regard.

The basis behind this trend is generally that these teams have very leaky defenses (to give up that many), had a way above their head effort offensively to still win with 31 or more, and/or took full advantages of turnovers, special teams returns, shock plays etc, all of which can't particularly be counted on to happen again. It's tough to trust either of those likely offensive scenarios to duplicate themselves a week later, and now that leaky defense is going up against a far better offensive team.

But laying the -10 with Kansas City does come with concerns as well, as to how you grade a coach returning after a week off.

Players get healthy after a game and it's known what to expect from them, but with bias already naturally coming from what's been seen last, how does the coaching return/switch completely overshadow it. It should, but you can see why Cleveland + the points has been gaining some attraction in the market.

What peaked my interest about those numbers though was looking at the 'over' results being slightly ahead, and that being the side of the total that does have some attraction to it.

Cleveland may not benefit from all those turnovers again, but they don't even need half of what they put up a week ago to do more than enough to see an 'over' ticket cash here if the Chiefs are sharp and decide to keep their foot on the gas for the full 60 minutes with it being the playoffs now.

The run the Chiefs had going of winning SU games but failing to cover the spread was absurd this year (maybe that earlier angle applies to KC next week), and eventually that's got to flip one way or another.

At 6-10 SU for teams in the same spot as Cleveland this week, it suggests that flipping to a KC outright loss may not be the most likely (don't get me wrong, as does the -10 spread), and if KC does continue letting their foes hang around and finish inside the number, in that case, I'd rather be holding an 'over' ticket for the full game.

Cleveland's defense isn't likely to have tremendous success holding QB Mahomes and company down, and Browns QB Baker Mayfield is never shy about going down swinging if the game calls for it, as the Baltimore Ravens from a few Mondays ago can surely attest too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Division Round

Sunday’s games

Cleveland (12-5) @ Kansas City (14-2)
— Cleveland won seven of its last nine games.
— Last week was new Browns’ first playoff win ever, their first playoff game since ‘02.
— Cleveland won five of its last six road games.
— Browns won six of their last eight games overall.
— Browns lost field position in eight of their last nine games.
— Cleveland gave up 28.0 ppg in their last six games.
— Mayfield is playing in his first NFL playoff game.

— Kansas City had last week off, also rested guys in Week 17.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 11 games, but are 0-7-1 ATS in last eight games.
— Chiefs are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 3-5 TY.
— Last eight games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg
— Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
— Before winning Super Bowl LY, Chiefs had lost 12 of previous 14 playoff games.

— Chiefs won last three series games, by 6-4-16 points.
— Browns are 1-3 at Arrowhead, with lone win in 2009.
— Cleveland lost last two visits here, 23-17/17-13- their last visit here was 2015.

Tampa Bay (12-5) @ New Orleans (13-4)
— Last week’s win was Tampa Bay’s first playoff game since 2007.
— Tom Brady has a 31-11 career record in playoff games.
— Buccaneers won last five games, scoring 26-31-47-44-31 points.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 45-95 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay is 12-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Bucs won their last six road games; they’re 2-1 ATS as an underdog.

— New Orleans is 3-2 in its last five games, giving up 21 ppg.
— Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.
— Five of New Orleans’ last 12 games were decided by exactly three points.
— Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten games overall.
— Under is 7-3 in Saints’ last ten games.
— Saints are 5-6 in playoff games, since winning Super Bowl 11 years ago.
— Brees is 9-8 in playoff games, 2-5 in 2nd+ playoff game of a year.

— Saints beat Tampa Bay twice this year, 34-23 (week 1), 38-3 (week 9).
— New Orleans led 17-7/31-0 at halftime of the two games.
— In 2nd meeting, Bucs ran ball five times for 8 yards, the whole game!!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, January 16

Ohio State @ Illinois
Ohio State (10-3, 4-3)
— ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #294
— Experience: #91
— Continuity: #160
— Buckeyes are 1-3 SU on Big 14 road, 1-0-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Ohio State won three of its last four games.
— Buckeyes are rebounding 33% of their own missed shots (#51).

Illinois (9-4, 5-2)
— ranked #7 by KenPom
— Tempo: #86
— Experience: #218
— Continuity: #42
— Illinois won four of its last five games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Illini is 3-1 SU in Big 14 home games, 2-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Illinois is shooting 41.2% on the arc (#5).

— Ohio State won nine of last 11 eleven games.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.

North Carolina @ Florida State
North Carolina (8-4, 3-2)
— ranked #35 by KenPom
— Tempo: #82
— Experience: #324
— Continuity: #147
— Carolina won its last three games, by 1-2-6 points.
— Tar Heels are turning ball over 21.6% of time (#267)
— UNC lost three of four true road games, winning by 2 at Miami.

Florida State (6-2, 2-1)
— ranked #25 by KenPom
— Tempo: #136
— Experience: #106
— Continuity: #103
— FSU split its last four games, after a 4-0 start.
— Seminoles are 2-0 in ACC home tilts, beating Ga Tech by 13, NC State by 32.
— Florida State is 2nd-tallest team in country.

— North Carolina won eight of last ten series games.
— Tar Heels lost last two visits here, 81-80/65-59.

San Diego State @ Utah State
San Diego State (9-3, 3-2)
— ranked #41 by KenPom
— Tempo: #335
— Experience: #6
— Continuity: #41
— Aztecs won three of last four games, but lost 57-45 here Thursday.
— San Diego State won its only other true road game, by 12 at Arizona St.
— Aztecs are forcing turnovers 22.7% of time (#37).

Utah State (10-3, 7-0)
— ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #175
— Experience: #266
— Continuity: #146
— Aggies won last nine games, after a 1-3 start.
— Utah State is 1-3 vs top 100 teams (schedule #211).
— Aggies have #14 eFG% defense in country.

— Utah State won four of last six series games.
— Aztecs won four of their last five visits to Logan.

Creighton @ Butler
Creighton (10-2, 6-1)
— ranked #10 by KenPom
— Tempo: #97
— Experience: #45
— Continuity: #21
— Creighton is 3-0 on Big East road, winning by 18-2-2 points.
— Bluejays won their last six games overall.
— Creighton is shooting 38.8% on the arc (#24)- their eFG% is #9.

Butler (3-7, 2-5)
— ranked #100 by KenPom
— Tempo: #292
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #264
— Bulldogs lost four of their last five games.
— Butler is 2-1 at home in Big East, losing only to UConn.
— Butler has #299 eFG% defense in country.

— Home side won last six series games.
— Creighton lost last three games in Hinkle, by 25-15-14 points.

Marquette @ St John’s
Marquette (7-6, 3-4)
— ranked #53 by KenPom
— Tempo: #247
— Experience: #196
— Continuity: #173
— Marquette lost four of its last six games overall.
— Marquette is 2-1 on Big East road, losing 91-88 at Xavier
— Marquette doesn’t force many turnovers (15.7%, #320).

St John’s (7-6, 2-5)
— ranked #86 by KenPom
— Tempo: #18
— Experience: #257
— Continuity: #187
— Johnnies are 2-1 at home in Big East, losing by 18 to Creighton.
— Red Storm has #324 eFG% defense in country.
— Big East home underdogs are 4-5 ATS this year.

— Home side won seven of last eight series games.
— Marquette lost last four visits here, by 14-8-20-2 points.

Michigan @ Minnesota
Michigan (11-0, 6-0)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #234
— Experience: #63
— Continuity: #142
— Michigan won Big 14 road tilts at Nebraska/Minnesota, both by 11.
— Wolverines are shooting 60.7% inside arc (#7)
— Michigan’s last five wins are all by 11+ points.

Minnesota (10-4, 3-4)
— ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #58
— Experience: #132
— Continuity: #186
— Gophers are 3-0 at home, 0-4 on road in Big 14 games.
— Big 14 home underdogs are 8-6 ATS this season.
— Minnesota lost 82-57 in Ann Arbor ten days ago.

— Michigan won six of last seven series games.
— Wolverines won six of last seven visits to Minnesota.

Kentucky @ Auburn
Kentucky (4-7, 3-1)
— ranked #51 by KenPom
— Tempo: #238
— Experience: #340
— Continuity: #341
— Kentucky won three of last four games, winning at Miss State/Florida.
— Wildcats are turning ball over 21.3% of time (#259).
— Kentucky has #283 eFG% in country, shooting #257 inside arc, #269 on arc.

Auburn (7-6, 1-4)
— ranked #73 by KenPom
— Tempo: #78
— Experience: #345
— Continuity: #312
— Auburn is 0-2 at home in SEC, losing by 12 to Arkansas, 4 to Alabama.
— Tigers are turning ball over 23.5% of time (#316).
— SEC home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 6-5 ATS.

— Home side won seven of last eight series games.
— Kentucky lost three of its last four visits to Auburn.

Stanford @ Colorado
Stanford (8-4, 4-2)
— ranked #45 by KenPom
— Tempo: #60
— Experience: #284
— Continuity: #56
— Cardinal won seven of their last nine games.
— Stanford is 1-2 on Pac-12 road, winning by 10 at Oregon State.
— Cardinal lost four of their six top 100 games.

Colorado (10-3, 4-2)
— ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #228
— Experience: #28
— Continuity: #100
— Colorado won its last three games, giving up 63.3 ppg.
— Buffs’ three losses were all on road, to top 30 teams.
— Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or fewer points are 9-5 ATS.

— Colorado won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Cardinal lost their last six visits to Boulder.

Baylor @ Texas Tech
Baylor (11-0, 4-0)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #168
— Experience: #129
— Continuity: #54
— Baylor won its four Big X games, all by 11+ points.
— Bears are forcing turnovers 26.8% of the time (#3)
— Baylor is 2-0 on Big X road, winning by 11 at Iowa State, 18 at TCU

Texas Tech (11-3, 4-2)
— ranked #12 by KenPom
— Tempo: #282
— Experience: #273
— Continuity: #267
— Tech won five of its last six games.
— Tech’s two Big X losses: by 1 to Kansas, in OT to Oklahoma State.
— Big X home underdogs of 5 or fewer points are 3-2-1 ATS.

— Baylor is 7-4 in last eleven series games.
— Bears lost three of last four visits to Lubbock (won 57-52 LY)

Arkansas @ Alabama
Arkansas (10-3, 2-3)
— ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #20
— Experience: #240
— Continuity: #331
— Hogs lost three of last four games, after a 9-0 start.
— Arkansas lost its last two road games, at Tennessee/LSU
— SEC teams are shooting 54.5% inside arc against them (#12 of 14).

Alabama (10-3, 5-0)
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #16
— Experience: #119
— Continuity: #157
— Alabama won its last six games, after a 4-3 start.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Alabama is 2-0 at home in SEC, beating Ole Miss by 18, Florida by 15.
— SEC home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 6-5 ATS.

— Arkansas won last six series games.
— Razorbacks won last three visits here, by 1-3-4 points.

Virginia @ Clemson
Virginia (8-2, 4-0)
— ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #357
— Experience: #135
— Continuity: #164
— Virginia won its four ACC games, giving up 58.8 ppg.
— Cavaliers are shooting 58.5% inside arc (#9)
— Virginia is playing slowest tempo of any team in country.

Clemson (9-1, 3-1)
— ranked #19 by KenPom
— Tempo: #293
— Experience: #183
— Continuity: #106
— Clemson’s only loss was 66-60 at Virginia Tech.
— Tigers won their last four games, giving up 58.3 ppg.
— Clemson is forcing turnovers 26.4% of time (#7).

— Virginia won last ten series games.
— Cavaliers won last four visits to the Palmetto State.

Gonzaga @ Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga (13-0, 4-0)
— ranked #9 by KenPom
— Tempo: #9
— Experience: #259
— Continuity: #177
— Zags won first four WCC games, all by 17+ points.
— Gonzaga is shooting 65.1% inside arc (#2)
— Zags won their only true road game, 116-88 at Portland.

Saint Mary’s (9-4, 0-2)
— ranked #82 by KenPom
— Tempo: #354
— Experience: #264
— Continuity: #226
— Gaels lost three of their last four games.
— Saint Mary’s lost first two WCC games, scoring 64-52 points.
— Gaels are 2-3 in top 100 games, beating Colorado St, South Dakota St.

— Gonzaga won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Zags won three of last five visits to Moraga (won 90-60 here LY)

BYU @ San Francisco
BYU (10-3, 1-1)
— ranked #56 by KenPom
— Tempo: #143
— Experience: #76
— Continuity: #263
— BYU won five of its last six games, losing only at Gonzaga.
— Cougars have road wins at Utah State, San Diego State, St Mary’s.
— BYU has #55 eFG% defense in country.

San Francisco (9-6, 3-2)
— ranked #78 by KenPom
— Tempo: #156
— Experience: #80
— Continuity: #161
— USF split its last eight games, after a 5-2 start.
— Dons are 1-3 in top 100 games, with only win over Virginia.
— 50.3% of their shots come behind the arc (#7).

— USF won three of last four series games, after an 0-11 drought.
— BYU lost 82-63/83-82 in their last two visits here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

601OHIO ST -602 ILLINOIS
ILLINOIS are 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more since 1997.

603N CAROLINA -604 FLORIDA ST
FLORIDA ST is 54-91 ATS (-46.1 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1997.

605SYRACUSE -606 PITTSBURGH
SYRACUSE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

607GEORGIA -608 OLE MISS
GEORGIA is 55-36 ATS (15.4 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1997.

611MIAMI OHIO -612 W MICHIGAN
MIAMI OHIO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

615WM & MARY -616 DREXEL
WM & MARY is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) as a dog over the last 2 seasons.

615WM & MARY -616 DREXEL
Dane Fischer is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) as a dog (Coach of WM & MARY)

617N ILLINOIS -618 BALL ST
BALL ST is 10-3 ATS (6.7 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

619NORTHEASTERN -620 COLL OF CHARLESTON
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 75-51 ATS (18.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game since 1997.

621MISSOURI -622 TEXAS A&M
MISSOURI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA trends…….

It is still early in the NBA season, but here are trends to consider for each team:
(stats are thru Wednesday’s games)

Atlanta Hawks:
— Lost four of last five games.
— Last six games stayed under total.
— 1-4 ATS at home, 4-1 on road.

Boston Celtics:
— Won their last four games, covered last three.
— 3-1 ATS at home.
— Underdogs covered all six of their road games.

Brooklyn Nets:
— Won four of their six games.
— Covered three of last four home games.
— Last five home games went over total.
— How will team’s approach change with James Harden on board?

Charlotte Hornets :
— Won/covered four of last five games.
— Five of their last six games stayed under.
— Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in their games.
— Check status of Hayward, who hurt his hip Wednesday

Chicago Bulls:
— Covered five in row, eight of last nine games.
— Four of their last five games went over total.
— 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
— Lost three in row, five of last six games.
— Lost last three home games, scoring 88 ppg.
— Their last ten games stayed under the total.

Dallas Mavericks:
— Won/covered their last four games.
— Won/covered four of last five road games.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under.

Denver Nuggets:
— 1-5 ATS at home.
— Nine of their 11 games went over.
— Favorites are 3-1-1 ATS in their road games.

Detroit Pistons:
— Lost five of their last six games.
— Covered five of last seven games.
— Under is 5-2 in their home games; over is 3-1 in their road games.

Golden State Warriors:
— Won/covered four of last six games, all at home.
— Last four games stayed under total.
— 1-3 ATS on road; their last road game was December 29.

Houston Rockets:
— Lost four of their last five games.
— 3-6 ATS this season; 2-4 at home, 1-2 on road.
— Under is 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Indiana Pacers
— 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Three of their four road games went over.
— 2-0 ATS if they played night before.

LA Clippers:
— Won three of their last four games
— Last four home games went over total.
— 0-3 ATS in last three home games.

LA Lakers:
— Won last four games, covered last three.
— Six of their seven road games stayed under total.
— 2-4 ATS as a home favorite, 5-2 as a road favorite.

Memphis Grizzlies:
— Won/covered their last three games.
— 1-5 SU at home, 4-1 SU on road.
— Four of their last five home games stayed under.

Miami Heat
— Lost three of their four road games (underdogs 4-0 ATS)
— Three of their last four home games stayed under.
— 3-1 ATS in game after a loss; 1-3 ATS after a win.

Milwaukee Bucks:
— Won six of their last seven games.
— Last three games stayed under the total.
— 4-2 ATS as a home favorite, 3-3 as a road favorite.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
— Lost eight of their last nine games.
— Six of their last seven games went over.
— Karl-Anthony Towns is back from his injury.

New Orleans Pelicans:
— Lost their last four games (1-3 ATS)
— 1-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Underdogs covered all five of their home games.

New York Knicks:
— Lost their last four games (0-4 ATS)
— Last five road games stayed under total.
— 2-4 ATS at home, 3-3 ATS on road.

Oklahoma City:
— Lost all five of their home games.
— 1-4 ATS as home underdogs, 5-2 ATS as road dogs.
— Over is 3-2 in their home games; under is 4-2 in their road games.

Orlando Magic:
— Lost five of their last seven games.
— Last five home games stayed under the total.
— 4-1 ATS as a favorite, 2-4 ATS as an underdog.

Philadelphia 76ers:
— Lost three of their last four games.
— Last four games went over the total.
— Covered once in their last four games.

Phoenix Suns:
— 2-3 in last five games, after a 5-1 start.
— 3-0 ATS in game following a loss.
— Four of their last five games went over total.

Portland Trailblazers:
— Won their last four games (3-1 ATS)
— 1-4 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS on road
— Under is 3-2 in their home games.

Sacramento Kings:
— Lost six of their last eight games.
— 2-5-1 ATS at home, 3-2 on road.
— Five of their last six games went over.

San Antonio Spurs:
— Won four of last five games, all on road.
— 4-0 ATS as a road underdog.
— Lost three of their four home games.

Toronto Raptors
— Lost five of their last six games.
— 2-5 ATS on the road.
— Four of their last six games went over.
— Remember, they’re playing “home” games in Tampa, not Toronto

Utah Jazz
— Won/covered last three games, all on the road.
— Underdogs covered all three of their home games.
— Three of their last four games stayed under.

Washington Wizards
— Underdogs covered five of their six home games.
— Covered four of their five road games.
— Six of their last seven games went over total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

521HOUSTON -522 SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 2-17 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in the last 3 seasons.

523ORLANDO -524 BROOKLYN
ORLANDO is 18-6 ATS (11.4 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

525CHARLOTTE -526 TORONTO
TORONTO is 15-4 ATS (10.6 Units) after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

527PHILADELPHIA -528 MEMPHIS
PHILADELPHIA is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins in the last 3 seasons.

529DETROIT -530 MIAMI
DETROIT is 235-284 ATS (-77.4 Units) after a division game since 1996.

533ATLANTA -534 PORTLAND
ATLANTA is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in road games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons.

533ATLANTA -534 PORTLAND
Lloyd Pierce is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in road games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 (Coach of ATLANTA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, January 16

Trend Report

Houston @ San Antonio
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Houston
San Antonio is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Houston

Orlando @ Brooklyn
Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games at home

Charlotte @ Toronto
Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games at home

Philadelphia @ Memphis
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Memphis
Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Memphis's last 18 games at home

Detroit @ Miami
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games at home
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

Atlanta @ Portland
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games on the road
Portland
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 16

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HOUSTON (4 - 6) at SAN ANTONIO (6 - 6) - 1/16/2021, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 1130-1004 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 54-26 ATS (+25.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 230-165 ATS (+48.5 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 454-382 ATS (+33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 139-101 ATS (+27.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 4-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (6 - 6) at BROOKLYN (7 - 6) - 1/16/2021, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-2 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 4-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (6 - 7) at TORONTO (3 - 8) - 1/16/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 4-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 4) at MEMPHIS (5 - 6) - 1/16/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 184-138 ATS (+32.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 9) at MIAMI (4 - 6) - 1/16/2021, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (5 - 6) at PORTLAND (7 - 5) - 1/16/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

13BOSTON -14 NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 207-171 ATS (18.9 Units) off a home loss since 1996.

15SAN JOSE -16 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

17MONTREAL -18 EDMONTON
MONTREAL is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) in road games off a close road loss by 1 goal in the last 3 seasons.

21NY ISLANDERS -22 NY RANGERS
NY RANGERS are 220-261 ATS (-87.3 Units) in home games vs. winning teams since 1996.

23CAROLINA -24 DETROIT
DETROIT is 4-24 ATS (-22.4 Units) off a home loss by 2 goals or more in the last 3 seasons.

25COLUMBUS -26 NASHVILLE
NASHVILLE is 6-13 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

29VANCOUVER -30 CALGARY
VANCOUVER is 414-400 ATS (-109.6 Units) vs. losing teams since 1996.

31ANAHEIM -32 VEGAS
ANAHEIM is 469-485 ATS (8.3 Units) vs. winning teams since 1996.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, January 16

Trend Report

Boston @ New Jersey
Boston
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
New Jersey is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games at home

San Jose @ Arizona
San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Jose is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home

NY Islanders @ NY Rangers
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Islanders is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 5 games
NY Rangers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing NY Islanders

Carolina @ Detroit
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Carolina

Montreal @ Edmonton
Montreal
Montreal is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games at home

Toronto @ Ottawa
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Columbus @ Nashville
Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Columbus's last 10 games on the road
Columbus is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Nashville
Nashville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing at home against Columbus

Minnesota @ Los Angeles
Minnesota
Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Los Angeles is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Vancouver @ Calgary
Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Vancouver's last 12 games when playing Calgary
Vancouver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Calgary's last 12 games when playing Vancouver
Calgary is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Vancouver

Anaheim @ Vegas
Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 5 games when playing Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 5 games on the road
Vegas
Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Anaheim
Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Anaheim

Washington @ Pittsburgh
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 16

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BOSTON (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (0-0-0-1, 1 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 227-176 ATS (+47.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-2 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-2-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)

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SAN JOSE (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at ARIZONA (0-0-0-1, 1 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 5-18 ATS (-13.4 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-4 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-4-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.0 Units)

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MONTREAL (0-0-0-1, 1 pts.) at EDMONTON (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 8-16 ATS (-8.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 123-148 ATS (-84.3 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
EDMONTON is 33-43 ATS (+76.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 88-105 ATS (-80.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-1-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.0 Units)

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TORONTO (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at OTTAWA (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 3-11 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 130-120 ATS (-17.4 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
OTTAWA is 157-140 ATS (-61.5 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
OTTAWA is 176-162 ATS (-120.9 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-4 (+4.2 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 4-4-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at NY RANGERS (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 101-80 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 16-7 ATS (+23.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 111-136 ATS (-44.8 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 158-156 ATS (-73.4 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 3-10 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 130-161 ATS (-108.8 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 220-261 ATS (-142.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 5-4 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 5-4-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

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CAROLINA (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at DETROIT (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 37-64 ATS (-35.4 Units) after shutting out their opponent in their previous game since 1996.
DETROIT is 326-309 ATS (-285.2 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DETROIT is 7-33 ATS (+70.1 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 5-2 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 5-2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

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COLUMBUS (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at NASHVILLE (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 12-15 ATS (-13.6 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 15-20 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 6-13 ATS (-17.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 2-2-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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MINNESOTA (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (0-0-0-1, 1 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 177-183 ATS (-17.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-2 (+2.4 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-2-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.4 Units)

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VANCOUVER (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at CALGARY (0-0-0-1, 1 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 414-400 ATS (-125.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 47-41 ATS (+97.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 3-11 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 4-4 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-4-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

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ANAHEIM (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at VEGAS (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) - 1/16/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 133-134 ATS (+297.2 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 469-485 ATS (+994.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 8-1 (+6.5 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 8-1-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.1 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best Bets, Score Predictions for Saturday Jan. 16
Matt Blunt

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Nashville Predators

Money-Line Odds: Columbus +104; Nashville -120
Total (Over-Under): 5.5

Score Prediction: Nashville 4 Columbus 2
Best Bet: Predators ML

It appears I'm not starting nearly as high on Columbus or possibly as low on Nashville as the market suggests for this game, as the Predators are a team I do believe can be more of a player in the Central Division than their +800 price tag suggests.

The Blue Jackets are right behind them at +900, but I would have had Nashville be listed as a slightly bigger favorite than this.

The Predators have won six of the past eight meetings between the two clubs for what that's worth, but I view this as a short price on Nashville regardless. That info definitely doesn't hurt that position.


San Jose Sharks vs. Arizona Coyotes

Money-Line Odds: San Jose +108; Arizona -125
Total (Over-Under): 5.5

Score Prediction: San Jose 3 Arizona 2
Best Bet: Sharks ML

Maybe it's starting to show up as a theme, but San Jose is another team I'm not in a hurry to completely give up on this season, as I'm not sure they will be as bad as expected in the West.

It will be an uphill climb to compete for a playoff spot for the Sharks for sure, but they've been where Arizona is trying to build up too, and understand what type of team will be coming for them.

Also, an older team like the Sharks would do itself a great help by starting out hot and piling together wins while they are fresh and haven't been bogged down by some brutal travel or back-to-back spots.

Arizona is another one of those teams that I still prefer to treat as a “prove it to me first” team, similar to my thoughts on Montreal yesterday. These are the games the Coyotes are supposed to win if they want to make that next leap, but sight unseen, the prove it first idea is worthy of a fade.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs



Tampa Bay Downs - Race 10

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Super High 5



Maiden Claiming $32,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 85 • Purse: $15,350 • Post: 4:40P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000 (PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HORSES WHICH HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $25,000. THE SAME PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HORSES WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR LESS THAN $25,000 AND SINCE THEN HAVE FINISHED 2ND OR 3RD FOR $25,000 OR MORE.). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS.).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. INDY LYON is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INDY LYON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Spe ed Figure at the distance/surface. HABITUS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



4

INDY LYON

5/1


5/2




1

HABITUS

2/1


3/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

INDY LYON

4


5/1

Front-runner

71


74


81.5


70.2


61.7




1

HABITUS

1


2/1

Stalker

86


70


57.2


71.4


68.9




8

ALL FOOLS DAY

8


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


22.8


59.7


48.7




9

BEACH WARRIOR

9


8/1

Trailer

63


63


26.5


59.7


51.7




3

MISSION BRIEF

3


6/1

Alternator/Trailer

72


60


45.5


52.9


43.9




5

CENTSOFWANDER

5


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


52.3


52.3


40.3




7

TEXAS STORM

7


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


51.2


51.2


39.7




10

BEDAZZLING

10


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

67


70


36.5


44.2


32.7




2

HACHACHA

2


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


14.2


14.2


0.2























Unknown Running Style: KING RAMOS (8/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Harry - Trainer: O'Connell Kathleen].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers



Golden Hour Wagers - Race 3

Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Double



Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 70 • Purse: $61,000 • Post: 4:41P


SA - R10 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST STARTS PREFERRED).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SQUARED SHADY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the h ighest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OMG IT'S JESSICA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse. OUR LITTLE T IGER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS BAYLEE: Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.



1

SQUARED SHADY

5/1


4/1




7

OMG IT'S JESSICA

7/2


6/1




14

OUR LITTLE TIGER

5/1


7/1




5

MISS BAYLEE

5/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

SQUARED SHADY

1


5/1

Front-runner

85


75


94.2


72.1


64.6




7

OMG IT'S JESSICA

7


7/2

Front-runner

74


75


81.5


71.1


66.1




14

OUR LITTLE TIGER

14


5/1

Trailer

87


73


68.3


69.2


64.2




5

MISS BAYLEE

5


5/1

Trailer

88


79


66.4


74.9


70.4




6

ANOTHER EDDIE

6


4/1

Trailer

74


66


55.0


62.6


53.6




8

RACE JUDICATA

8


20/1

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


47.4


58.8


48.8




4

WARRIOR LADY

4


30/1

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


46.5


45.5


32.0























Unknown Running Style: PISTACHIO PRINCESS (12/1) [Jockey: Gonzalez Ricardo - Trainer: Blacker Dan], CURIOUS INJI (10/1) [Jockey: Baze Tyler - Trainer: Mullins Jeff], LOVE THE DANCE (30/1) [Jockey: Franco Geovanni - Trainer: Dunham Daniel], ANNIETOWN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks for Saturday Laurel Stakes

January 15, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s $550,000 Winter Carnival at Laurel Park features 6 stakes races on a 9-race card that begins at 12:25 pm ET. We’ve resourced the app’s artificial intelligence handicapping to help you with the stakes selections. Download the app and use its free handicapping tools to make your own selections for Laurel Park and racetracks throughout North America.

Note: we’ve included the official track morning line odds

Race 3 // Geisha Stakes // 1 mile

#2 Gale (6-5) // 33%W
#6 Coconut Cake (7-2) // 16%W
#4 Kiss the Girl (9-2) // 15%W
#5 Artful Splatter (5-1) // 15%W

Race 4 // Fire Plug Stakes // 6 furlongs

#2 Laki (2-1) // 32%W
#5 Share the Ride (9-5) // 21%W
#3 Penguin Power (6-1) // 16%W
#4 Karen’s Notion (8-1) // 11%W

Race 5 // Jennings Stakes // 1 mile

#3 Cordmaker (5-2) // 30%
#5 Tattooed (6-1) // 15%
#9 Galerio (6-1) // 15%
#4 Hall Pass (8-1) // 10%

Race 6 // What A Summer Stakes // 6 furlongs

#3 Hello Beautiful (1-1) // 32%W
#6 Malibu Mischief (6-1) // 20%W
#1 Club Car (9-2) // 15%W
#4 Cause Im Edgy (20-1) // 9%W

Race 7 // Xtra Heat Stakes // 6 furlongs

#3 Sweet Lute (1-1) // 32%W
#2 Miss Leslie (3-1) // 21%W
#6 Plane Drunk (12-1) // 15%W
#8 Whiskey and Rye (6-1) // 10%W

Race 8 // Spectacular Bid Stakes // 7 furlongs

#8 Maythehorsebewithu (3-1) // 33%W
#3 Nobody Knew (4-1) // 22%W
#9 Erawan (6-1) // 12%W
#7 Shackqueenking (7-2) // 10%W

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

January 16, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a competitive 15-race card scheduled for tonight. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Yacht Seelster (8-1)-Had a nice try from post 9 at this class last week and raced from the back. Dunn is back in the bike, should be forwardly placed and is well worth a swing at the morning line price.
2-Decision Day (6-1)-Fired hot off the bench, now steps-up and AMac steers instead of Zeron. Has enough gate speed to be put in play early and could be better than last week at a square price.
4-Semi Tough (3-1)-Got on the engine and was just a bit short after being off since 12-26. Took 7 pictures last year in 21 starts. Gingras returns and this could be the spot to get 1st Big M win, currently (0-8).

Race 7

1-Warrawee Unique (9/2)-Idle since 11-20 and comes off an okay tune-up but this isn't a strong group and a soft spot if ready.
3-Incredible Shark (7/2)-Gets some post relief, drops to a better level, and makes 2nd straight Big M start. The barn has been so-so but like #1, this is a beatable field.
5-American Boy N (3-1)-Makes 3rd start off the bench and was on the point in last. Should be on the ticket but was camera shy last year going 2-23.

Race 8

1-Ollie's Ztam (6-1)-Comes off a dull try at the Meadows, but Gingras should have him near the top of the stack and could pop at a square price.
5-Lachie Maguire N (9/2)-Got on the engine in last 2 starts and faded down the lane both times. Loses Dunn and Zeron may look to work a ground saving trip and roll by late. This is the 3rd start in sequence, needs a good steer and an honest pace.
8-Italian Delight N (3-1)-Steps-up again after winning 2 straight. Normally not a time for me to use, but both wins were done easily and probably is the one to beat again.

Race 9

4-B Stoney (7/2)-Comes off 2 big efforts from the 8-hole and just missed versus better in last. Allard steers instead of Dave Miller but he knows how to blast out and get on the engine. Should be a major player and can take a picture if steals a quarter.
7-Paduka N (9/2)-Has a similar M.O. to #4 but Todd McCarthy could land in the 2-hole and trip out at a fair price.
8-De Los Cielos Deo (8-1)-The 2 above should be leaving as well as #9. So, if a speed battle ensues here is the closer that could pick up the pieces.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,2,4/1,3,5/1,5,8/4,7,8
Total Bet=$40.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 1/16/21

January 16, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Agamemnon; 2-Jetovator; 5-Shady Empire; 10-I Wll Not

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a difficult state-bred allowance sprint on dirt that requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as your budget allows. Shady Empire was nosed out in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month that produced a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today the J. Bonde-trained gelding may be as good as any, especially with the switch to J. Rosario. Jetovator is eligible to this condition right back after winning an identical race on a different surface (grass) last month. Whether he can be as effective on dirt remains to be seen but based strictly on speed figures he’s a serious player. I Will Not is solid on form, having finished a good second at this level last month at Los Alamitos with a competitive speed figure. The son of Square Eddie projects to settle in the second flight and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Agamemnon ran well two races back when missing in a photo at 43-1, but then didn’t fire in a similar spot in his most recent outing. The Grazen gelding continues to impress in the a.m. and likes this track, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll include him on our ticket.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Burnin Turf

Forecast: Burnin Turf has much in his favor in this maiden state-bred turf miler for older horses. The D. Blacker-trained gelding, third in both of his starts with rising speed figures, has worked well since his most recent outing in late November and should continue his improving pattern as he gains experience. With the switch to F. Prat and the always-popular blinkers off angle, the son of Acclamations seems pretty solid at 2-1 on the morning line, and at that price we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Mister Bold; 4-Swift as I Am

Forecast: Swift as I Am was nosed out in a similar allowance optional claiming sprint at Del Mar in late November, and with steadily rising speed figures and a healthy recent series of workouts the J. Sadler-trained gelding should be hard to beat. The son of Danza was nearly seven lengths clear of the rest when beaten last time out, and with J. Rosario staying aboard he’ll probably leave at a shorter price than his morning line of 3-1.Mister Bold, listed as the 5/2 morning line choice, is the one to fear most and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Back sprinting after finishing a close fourth when favored in the one mile King Glorious S. at Los Alamitos last month, the J. Bonde-trained colt gets Lasix, blinkers and F. Prat, so there’s every reason to believe he’ll fire his best shot while turning back to his preferred trip.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-She’s Devoted; 2-Leggs Galore; 5-Warrens Showtime

Forecast: She’s Devoted gets a class test today while moving in stakes competition after a pair of nice wins to begin her career, her debut last winter over this turf course and then most recently in an entry-level allowance grass dash at Del Mar. She’s developed a late-running style and therefore should appreciate today’s extra furlong, so with some help up front and good racing luck from the rail the daughter of Grazen may be able to to tag the speed at 4-1 on the morning line. Leggs Galore seeks her fourth straight score, with all three of here prior wins accomplished sprinting on turf. She has excellent early speed and projects as a strong pace factor throughout, perhaps even the controlling speed. She’s also 4-1 on the morning line and a “must use” in rolling exotic play. The most dangerous of the deep closers is Warrens Showtime, a four time winner over the Santa Anita turf course but clearly (so far) most effective over a distance of ground. She’ll be running on strongly late.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Complete Control; 7-Allergic to Logic

Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred 3-year-old fillies using just two in our rolling exotics. If you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Complete Control makes her eighth career start but her first with Lasix while returning to the maiden claiming ranks after finishing a respectable fourth in maiden special weight Cal-bred company at Del Mar in late November. On pure numbers she’s a strong fit at this level and had run well over this main track in the past. She’s hardly a standout but the logical top pick. Allergic to Logic is a first-timer from the B. Koriner barn with win-early breeding (Smiling Tiger) and a work tab that indicates some ability. With F. Prat taking the call she has the look of a live item, even from a barn that doesn’t have good stats with debut runners. Tread lightly here.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Closing Remarks; 7-Sensible Cat

Forecast: Closing Remarks ran into a roadblock when attempting to rally along the rail entering the stretch in the Jimmy Durante S.-G3 at Del Mar last month and lost whatever chance she may have had, eventually being taken in hand late and winding up last of 10. She tries state-bred foes today and is reunited with “win rider” M. Smith, so with better luck the daughter of Vronsky may be capable of producing the last run. Sensible Cat, a smart winner of her last two with rising speed figures, is the likely choice and one to beat. She has good tactical speed to ensure a clean trip and can settle just off the leaders and then kick home when called upon. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a couple of extra tickets keying Closing Remarks on top.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-The Chosen Vron

Forecast: The Chosen Vron graduated at first asking in very impressive fashion, establishing the pace in hand and then kicking clear with ease to earn a powerful number like a gelding with a future. The future is today in this year’s edition of the Cal Cup Derby, and from the rail he should be capable of controlling the race from the start to finish over a two-turn trip that we anticipate will be within his capabilities. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, so we’ll make the E. Kruljac-trained sophomore a rolling exotic single and leave it at that.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Ward ‘n Jerry; 4-Indian Peak; 8-Acclimate

Forecast: Here’s a deep and competitive nine furlong grass affair for older horses that offers several possibilities. Indian Peak, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, catches the eye in his first start since joining the B. Koriner barn. A stakes winner over this course and distance as a 3-year-old, the son of Comic Strip should receive the patient ride he requires from J. Rosario, and in a race loaded with pace types it’s possible the son of Comic Strip can produce a sufficient late kick to register an upset. The works look good and this colt could easily be a better four year old then he was as a sophomore. Acclimate and Ward ‘n Jerry both exit graded stakes races and should appreciate this softer assignment. The former does his best work on the front end, but with other committed speed types in the field P. D’Amato-trained gelding may be forced to employ stalking tactics, which has never been his favorite type of trip. The latter, a four-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and back with “win rider” F. Prat, will suited the projected pace flow and figures to come running in the final furlong.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tigre Di Slugo; 3-Fashionably Fast

Forecast: Fashionable Fast is the defending Cal Cup Sprint winner and certainly can win it again this year if he’s ready to fire off a more than five month layoff. The works are decent enough, but the son of Lucky Pulpit doesn’t really have a history of firing fresh, so it’s possible that he’s a race away from behind dead tight. Tigre Di Slugo continues to impress both in the morning and in the afternoon, and if he can negotiate a good trip from the rail the Smiling Tiger gelding figures very strongly. Most effective as a late-running sprinter and with J. Rosario riding him back, the M. Puype-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure when beating a first-level allowance field at Del Mar in late November in his first start in nine months, so we’re expecting a forward move and a big effort despite the class hike. The proven class horse Fashionably Fast gets a very slight edge on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Miss Baylee; 6-Another Eddie; 7-Omg It’s Jessica; 10-Annietown

Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for state-bred maiden 3-year-old fillies. Anything goes. Omg It’s Jessica tipped her hand when narrowly missing in her debut at Los Alamitos last month but if she can build on that effort today the daughter of Smiling Tiger from the dam of the good Cal-bred sprinter Oliver should be capable of earning her diploma. She’s the quickest of the known element, but with so many newcomers in the field the pace scenario looks muddled. Another Eddie, third in the same race Omg It’s Jessica exits, goes for a trainer whose second-time starters often improve, and this daughter of Square Eddie certainly is bred on both sides of her pedigree to move on the lawn. Annietown is a Cal-bred by Speightstown debuting for Glatt (solid stats with first-timers) and with F. Prat taking the call she certainly has the makings of a live item. Miss Baylee, a promising second when well-backed in her debut last June, returns for B. Koriner with a series of good works and could easily be a better type this time around.
*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Edzo's Saturday Longshot Bets at Gulfstream

January 15, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

handicapper Eddie Olczyk is back with a pair of Saturday spot plays at Gulfstream Park on Sunshine Stakes Day in South Florida. This duo offers juicy prices on a stakes-laden program.

Gulfstream Park // Race 9 // Sunshine Classic Stakes // 3:46 pm ET // 1-1/8 miles dirt

#7 Kaufy Bean (10-1 ML)

His allowance third Dec. 11 was a good return from a 7-month layoff. He's tactical and the distance should be do-able. Kaufy Bean should provide value here with #1 Noble Drama and #3 Last Judgment expected to get a lot of action on the board.

Gulfstream Park // Race 11 // Sunshine Turf Stakes // 4:50 pm ET // 1-1/16 miles turf

#8 Clear Destination (15-1)

While this gelding's record only shows 1 win on the grass in 9 career races, keep in mind only 2 of those turf attempts have been around 2 turns like today's race. He finished second in both, including last time out over this course at 35-1. Those races put him in the mix here at an overlay price. There's plenty of pace to run at with Proven Strategies, Monforte and Max KO front-running types.


The pucks have dropped this week in the NHL and the ponies are in high gear. It's a great time of year as I look forward to next week's Pegasus World Cup Betting Challenge!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Sunshine Turf Stakes at Gulfstream

January 14, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$75,000 SUNSHINE TURF STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, January 16, 2021

The Lead:
Sunshine Stakes Day hits the Atlantic coast Saturday at Gulfstream Park with a series of Florida-bred stakes races. Among the 4 features are the Classic, Sprint, Filly & Mare Turf and the Turf. The latter may be the best betting race of the quartet, and goes as Race 11 of 12 on the card. First post time Saturday will be earlier than usual at 11:45 am ET.

​Field Depth:
This group of 9 matches up very similar on class with several listed stakes winners and common opponents across Florida's stakes scene. There's no discernible class edge among the likes of VENEZUELAN HUG, GALLEON MAST and MONFORTE. PROVEN STRATEGIES joins the local state-bred stakes scene after competing in open company in New York and Toronto.

Pace:
PROVEN STRATEGIES has fired to the front in 5 of his last 6 starts and from post 2 probably will be hustled along again. MONFORTE next door is always in the pace mix, as is MAX K.O. This should be a solid early pace with late runners having no excuses to fire if they get a clean trip.

Our Eyes:
VENEZUELAN HUG won the Sunshine Turf Preview at Gulfstream Park West and won his only 2 starts over this course in 2020 at Gulfstream Park proper. That Preview victory was his first attempt against older horses, and the now 4-year-old looks poised to be a long-standing member in this state-bred turf division. He was getting a 3-pound break in the Preview from photo-finish runner-up SECOND MATE. He'll now tote co-top weight of 122 pounds and give 4 to his past rival. That's a 7-pound weight shift and we're only talking about a head difference in margin Nov. 21. You could make the case that the value play was VENEZUELAN HUG at 7-2 last time, and now SECOND MATE offers more value. Note SECOND MATE finished a decent fifth in the Sunshine Turf last year against an arguably tougher field that included winner March to the Arch. SECOND MATE is working well for this.

The top returnee from last year's Sunshine Turf is third-place finisher GALLEON MAST. Like SECOND MATE, he's now 8 years old and both are just 1-for-their-last-10 while posting several solid losing efforts. But GALLEON MAST never got uncorked in the Sunshine Turf Preview across town and his workout tab gives no indication of a big wake-up.

PROVEN STRATEGIES recently turned 4 and has yet to take on elder stakes runners. I like the way Mark Casse's barn perked up with 3 winners last week after needing the first month of the Championship Meet to tally his first 3 scores. PROVEN STRATEGIES has done all his best running on the front, and it should be contentious with MONFORTE latched to him from the outside. MONFORTE was the beaten favorite in the Sunshine Turf Preview when battling on the front end and tiring to seventh. He'll get a new pilot in John Velazquez, which never hurts, but he's got to prove himself against this pace pressure and older stakes horses. The price likely will be an underlay on the rider change and 8 straight starts being bet to 3-1 or less.

OVER THE CHANNEL has won 2 of his last 4 and has done his best running on the GP turf. David Fawkes removes blinkers after a wide trip in the Claiming Crown Emerald.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: VENEZUELAN HUG has won 4 of 6 since moving to trainer Danny Gargan's barn, and that outfit has been sharply on point with limited starters at the Championship Meet.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: SECOND MATE will offer another solid price, and MAX K.O. doesn't have a great pace set-up for his front-end style, but he's a recent $50K claim for a Mike Maker barn that's made a career out of high-dollar claims turned turf stakes winners.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 win and place SECOND MATE.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Share the Ride Looks likely to be a handful in this spot, as he's quick enough to sit close early, but he can settle just off what promises to be a quick pace.
#1 Wendell Fong Finished with some enthusiasm last out, and he has been pretty reliable over the local footing. Seems useful in the underneath spots at a square price.
#3 Penguin Power Proved he could cut it with this kind last out when showing the way in the lane before settling for third. He looks like the best of the pace players.
Race Summary Share the Ride should get a perfect trip just behind the pace, and he reliably earns BRIS Late Pace figures that suggest he's the one to worry about when he comes calling.

Laurel Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Miss Leslie Handled stakes company when trying two turns for the first time last out, and her two-back score at this trip was really sharp. She's the main danger to the chalk.
#3 Street Lute She's a neck away from a perfect 6-for-6 record, and she should be in line for another brilliant pressing trip with this bunch. She's the one to beat, but I'm not sure she towers over the top choice.
#7 It Can Has earned soft figures while posting a couple of upset victories to open her career, but she hasn't really been hard pressed in either of those scores and may land a piece of this at a big number.
Race Summary Miss Leslie gets Lasix for her 3yo debut, and she would be playable at something like the 3/1 ML price. I'll use her while trying to get It Can into the gimmicks with either of the top two.

Laurel Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Erawan The main worry here is that he may want a bit more pace to kick at, but he'll get Lasix for the first time, and he has been a reliable finisher over the local footing. 6/1 ML offering would be appealing.
#8 Maythehorsebwithu He impressed in the local debut last out when flashing speed and holding easily in the lane, and he has a real chance to try and run this group off their feet.
#7 Shackqueenking Has done little wrong through four starts, and he just held to land a similar stakes around two turns last out. Quicker tempo here may leave him running from a touch off the pace today.
Race Summary Erawan is capable of races big enough to win this, and he should be a playable enough price after losing to Shackqueenking going two turns last out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 J-S LADY VIRGIN Been burning serious money with busy schedule lately.
#2 MADAM DOLCE Won upon arrival from Canada, no threat in faster follow-up.
#6 BANANA RAMA Second in faster division of split race, but 0-25 lifetime.
Race Summary J-S Lady Virgin makes her fifth start in 19 days and was the beaten favorite twice. She faded while first-over against the 2-1 winner last week in the faster half of a splite race. Play 5-2 and 5-6 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 SWEET N FAST N Took back off pace from post 7, good rally to finish third.
#5 PASSA-GRILLE BEACH Took money from post 9 on prior Big M appearances.
#2 THNDRFRMTHETHRON N Steps up after pocket-sitting victory as the fave.
Race Summary Sweet N Fast N rallied to finish third behind the favorites on a track that favored speed, earning a playback in the same spot for his second start locally. Play 6-2 and 6-5 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #10
Picks Notes
#6 ALWAYS AND AGAIN Sharp on front-end lately, holds on to win soon.
#5 MY PAL JOE Ranged up on top one in fast third quarter, out-kicked at odds-on.
#3 SAILBOAT HANOVER Earned his top speed fig when second in his third start as 4yo.
Race Summary Always and Again led a long way from post 7 in a pair of fast races recently and might be able to ration his speed better in this field. Play 7-3 and 7-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Kelsey's Cross Followed slow fractions in her latest and couldn't catch up; has a good kick and has been in some top local races.
#4 Sun Summers Has won three of her last and has claimed in class at the New York tracks, as well as Churchill Downs; has been a superb stalker and has responded when called upon.
#6 Sugar Fix Was second in a restricted stakes race last time and comes in off a 7 of 13 year.
Race Summary Kelsey's Cross does well when she chases a good pace and should be moving the best of all late.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#5 Quenane Beat similar two races back and can carve out a good trip just off a lively pace.
#1 Noble Drama Does well in state-bred races but also has done well in open company; always a factor running long over this track.
#6 Red Crescent Was near the lead throughout and was up in time in an open optional claiming race; big player.
Race Summary Quenane does well went the table is set by a good pace; gets I. Ortiz aboard and can get back to winning ways.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#2 With Verve Ran on well for second last time and has been competitive in stakes races; has a solid late move and has the talent to be a strong factor at a decent price.
#5 Extravagant Kid Just missed in a solid turf sprint last out and does most of his running on grass but moves up to the main track and won this race last year. Getting very close to $1 million in earnings.
#8 Jackson Usually does well in local sprints and comes in off a second at Tampa Bay; tough vs. state-breds.
Race Summary With Verve has a good late move and is capable of making a big run here; won the Hutcheson last year and can get up vs. Florida-breds here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 93

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 KOBLA MAS 6/1




# 11 FULSOME 7/2




# 3 HIDDEN ENEMY (IRE) 4/1




KOBLA MAS is my choice. Must be given consideration based on the competitive speed rating recorded in the last race. Earning some nice paychecks in turf route races. FULSOME - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last contest. Could provide positive dividends based on solid recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 84. HIDDEN ENEMY (IRE) - Has put up strong Speed Figures in turf route races in the past. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a major improvement for this colt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Gulfstream Park - Race #3 - Post: 12:41pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 FLAMING HOT (ML=5/1)


FLAMING HOT - This rider and handler's animals have been generating a profitable return on investment.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FRIENDLY FELLA (ML=5/2), #4 IT'S A RISK (ML=3/1), #7 FRANCO'S TEAM (ML=7/2),

FRIENDLY FELLA - Just cannot bet on this mount. Didn't show me anything last time out or on November 18th. IT'S A RISK - Could be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underlays list. FRANCO'S TEAM - This colt hasn't had any recent success in sprint events. Tough to bet on him in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #6 FLAMING HOT on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

6 with 7



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Turfway Park



01/16/21, TP, Race 7, 9.16 ET
01/16/21,TP,7,1M [Dirt] 1:35:00 ALLOWANCE. Purse $36,000 (includes up to $10,800 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of $9,500 Twice At A Mile Or Over Since October 16 Allowed 3 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
7
Be Nimble
5/1
Corrales G
Hamm Timothy E.
JSWL
266
29.32
1.36/$1


098.2025
2
Lady Fatima
10/1
Hernandez R M
Casse Mark E.


266
29.32
1.36/$1


097.8367
4
Queen Bridget
5/2
Jimenez A
Ortiz John Alexander
TE
193
27.46
1.46/$1


096.1110
6
Ria Munk
7/2
Landeros C
Brisset Rodolphe
F
170
28.24
1.54/$1


096.0797
1
Oxum Power
6/1
Ramos J D
Lobo Paulo H.
C
266
29.32
1.36/$1


095.8132
8
Miss Imperfection
12/1
Parker D L
Gorder Kellyn


266
29.32
1.36/$1


094.6553
3
Majestic Blend
3/1
Cannon D
Meah Anna


266
29.32
1.36/$1


093.4893
5
Blood Curdling
20/1
Gonzalez S
Hernandez Rey


193
27.46
1.46/$1


091.3199
1A
Naomi Broadway (BRZ)
6/1
Serpa A
Lobo Paulo H.


266
29.32
1.36/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 0.00, ROI 0.00/$1
. . . .
100.0000 7 Be Nimble
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]LastRaceDistanceIsNotLessThanToday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Santa Anita - Race #1 - Post: 12:00pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $63,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#10 I WILL NOT (ML=5/1)
#2 JETOVATOR (ML=3/1)
#3 RINSE AND REPEAT (ML=10/1)
#4 AFTERNOON HEAT (ML=12/1)
#9 POLICY (ML=12/1)


I WILL NOT - Have to make this colt a serious competitor; he comes off a sharp contest on December 18th. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (88-95-97) make this horse a powerful contender. Came home in quick time last time around the track. A positive sign. JETOVATOR - He must like the track here. Shipped in to take the top prize on December 27th and he looks tough once again. Dropped in class last race out, running against the same type today. I am keen on that most recent outing on December 27th at Santa Anita where he finished first. The 101 latest race speed figure looks mighty good on paper. RINSE AND REPEAT - This jockey and trainer's horses have been producing a favorable return on investment. I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a solid effort within the last thirty days. Horse has improved at least two Equibase speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that to continue to trend in a positive direction right here in this race. AFTERNOON HEAT - T. Baze is back up for another race today after riding aboard this horse for the first ride on December 18th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. While the finish was disappointing, this horse made a good stretch move last time out at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre. Should do much better right here. POLICY - Really think this magnificent animal is going to be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SHADY EMPIRE (ML=4/1), #11 BRACE FOR IMPACT (ML=8/1), #1 AGAMEMNON (ML=8/1),

SHADY EMPIRE - He's almost certainly going to get roasted up front. BRACE FOR IMPACT - This gelding won last time, but probably won't flaunt it today versus tougher competition. The pace situation just isn't too promising for this speedball. Many other thoroughbreds would have to scratch to upgrade his chances. AGAMEMNON - Never really did much at all last time out on November 28th. Hard to invest in in today's event. Can't wager on this questionable contender in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance clash of late.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - JETOVATOR - This gelding is ready to do some damage in today's contest. He has recorded three excellent speed figs over his last three events.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #10 I WILL NOT to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,10] Box [4,10] Box [9,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[2,3,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] Total Cost: $36



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,10] with [2,3,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] Total Cost: $24



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

[2,3,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] with [2,3,4,9,10] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING NCAAB

Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:11 am

Virginia vs. Clemson UNDER 116.5 -110 (6:03 PM)
Holy Cross vs. Colgate UNDER 149 -110 (1:02 PM)
Northern Iowa vs. Loyola Chicago UNDER 140 -110 (6:03 PM)
Eastern Washington -6 -110 Southern Utah (3:08 PM)
MERCER (GA) -6.5 -105 WESTERN CAROLINA (NC) (2:03 PM)
Notre Dame -4.5 -110 Boston College (4:03 PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING NFL

Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:11 am

PACKERS (GB) -6.5 -110 RAMS (LA) (4:35 PM)
RAVENS (BAL) +2.5 +100 BILLS (BUF) (8:15 PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:10 am

ENGLAND - CHAMPIONSHIP- WATFORD -150 HUDDERSFIELD TOWN (10:00 AM)
ENGLAND - CHAMPIONSHIP- WYCOMBE WANDERERS vs. QPR UNDER 2.5 +104 (10:00 AM)
ENGLAND - LEAGUE ONE- PETERBOROUGH UNITED +119 MILTON KEYNES DONS (10:00 AM)
ENGLAND - LEAGUE ONE- CHARLTON ATHLETIC vs. BRISTOL ROVERS UNDER 2.5 -135 (10:00 AM)
ENGLAND - LEAGUE TWO- CARLISLE UNITED +152 MANSFIELD TOWN (10:00 AM)
PORTUGAL - PRIMEIRA LIGA- FC PORTO +125 SL BENFICA (4:00 pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Two CBB Picks 1/16

Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:35 am

Looking forward to the Divisional games today. Here's a couple CBB picks.

100* Michigan -6
100* Over 140 Colorado/Stanford

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 64

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 BEE EINSTEIN 3/1




# 4 PACIFIC SILENCE 20/1




# 8 MIA SOLINA 8/1




BEE EINSTEIN is the most respectable wager in this race. She has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the strongest in this field. Ramos has this filly running well and is a very good pick based on the competitive Equibase Speed Figures put up in sprint races lately. Could best this group of animals based on the speed rating - 71 - of her last race. MIA SOLINA - Looks very good against this group of horses in this race and should be one of the leaders. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (61 average) at today's distance and surface recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
Sports Services
Free Sports Picks


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
NBA – Pistons +2.5


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
NBA – Raptors under 219.5


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
CBB – Texas A&M +4.5


4.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
CBB – The Citadel +4


5.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
CBB – Ohio St +6.5


6.
Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NBA – Magic +9


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
NBA – Raptors -7


8.
Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
CBB – Northern Illinois +10.5


9.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
CBB – San Diego St over 128


10.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
NBA – Grizzlies +1


11.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
NBA – Magic under 226


12.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
CBB – Northeastern over 127.5


13.
SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
CBB – Ohio -3


14.
East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NBA – Pistons over 215.5


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
NBA – Hawks +4.5


16.
Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
CBB – James Madison +2.5


17.
Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
CBB – The Citadel +4


18.
VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
NBA – Pistons +2.5


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
NBA – Magic +9


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
CBB – Syracuse -4.5


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
CBB – Texas A&M +4.5


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
NBA – Raptors -7


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
NBA – Rockets over 217.5


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
CBB – The Citadel +4


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
CBB – North Carolina +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Winners for Saturday, January 16th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE NBA PICKS
Magic @ Nets
TIME: 6:00 PM EST
PICK: Nets -12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, January 16th, 2021 from VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!
FREE NBA PICKS
Hawks @ Blazers
TIME: 10:00 PM EST
PICKS: Hawks +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMEDAY NETWORK
FREE CBB WINNER
SATURDAY 1/16/21
South Carolina @ LSU
Time: 8:30 PM EST
Free Pick: LSU -8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INSIDERS
SATURDAY 1/16/2021
FREE CBB PICKS
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
TIME: 6:00 PM EST
PICK: Tennessee -18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Action 365
FREE CBB WINNER for SATURDAY 1/16/21:
PLAY Arizona St -6.5 @ Oregon St, GAME TIME 7:00 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays Jan 16 '21, 1:00 PM in 46m
Soccer | Farense vs Guimaraes
Play on: Guimaraes -108 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Guimaraes -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander Jan 16 '21, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Michigan vs Minnesota
Play on: Minnesota +6 -110 at Mirage

1* CBB - Michigan/Minnesota *FREE PICK* on Minnesota +6
It might seem a bit crazy betting against the Wolverines right now, especially against a Minnesota team they annihilated 82-57 at home back on Jan. 6. I just think the price is right with the Gophers in this revenge spot.
The biggest thing with Minnesota is just how different they have played at home compared to on the road. The Gophers lopsided loss at Michigan is just what they have done on the road in Big Ten play. They are 0-4 on the road with all 3 losses coming by double-digits. They are 3-0 at home with a win over Iowa, as well as a 25 point win over Michigan State and 17 point win against Ohio State.
I'm not saying Michigan isn't the real deal, but I do think the schedule has aided in how good the Wolverines have looked. Michigan's only two games away from home have been against two of the worst teams in the conference in Maryland and Nebraska. This is by far their biggest challenge on the road and it might be hard for them to bring the right mindset given how bad they beat the Gophers earlier. Bet Minnesota +6!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Jan 16 '21, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | James Madison vs Towson
Play on: James Madison +3 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on James Madison +3 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Jan 16 '21, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State
Play on: Coastal Carolina +8 -110 at Mirage

1* on Coastal Carolina +8 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Jan 16 '21, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State
Play on: Coastal Carolina +8 -109 at Draft Kings

Free Play on Coastal Carolina +8 -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Jan 16 '21, 3:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Paris Saint-Germain vs Angers
Play on: Paris Saint-Germain -280 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Paris Saint-Germain -280

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule Jan 16 '21, 4:35 PM in 4h
NFL | Rams vs Packers
Play on: Packers -6½ -105 at pinnacle

This is a Free play on the Packers.
The Rams own the NFL's #1 ranked defense, and they are coming off a massive road win in Seattle on Wild Card Weekend. They say that defense wins Championships, but in the current era it seems that elite quarterbacks win Championships. I am not sure that there is a defense for Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Then there is Aaron Jones who averages 5.5 yards per carry. Jared Goff threw for 119 yards on 9-of-19 passing in the win over Seattle last week, and he's still banged up with a thumb injury. He's not ready to go head to head against a bad man like A-Aron Rodgers.
GL,
Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Jan 16 '21, 5:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Fairfield vs Marist
Play on: Fairfield +6 -110 at Mirage

1 Dimer on Fairfield +6 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan Jan 16 '21, 5:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Washington vs UCLA
Play on: UCLA -14½ -108 at pinnacle

UCLA -14.5
The Bruins are worthy of a flyer on Saturday. This is more of a fade Washington play. The Huskies are just awful this year, going 1-10 and have been getting blown out. UCLA comes in off a 30 point win as they are rolling over teams. Look for that to continue here.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* Free CBB ATS Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness Jan 16 '21, 6:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Virginia vs Clemson
Play on: Clemson +2 -109 at Draft Kings

My free play is on Clemson at 6:00 ET.
Tony Bennett came to Charlottesville to begin the 2009-10 season and in his first two years at the school went 15-16 and 16-15. Enough of that! It's been NINE straight seasons of 20-plus wins since, including four seasons of 30-plus wins. Bennett and UVa lost to UMBC in the opening round of the 2018 NCAA tournament, becoming the first time since expansion in 1985 that a No. 1 seed lost to a No. 16 one, However, the Cavs came back to win the title in 2019, as ESPN called Virginia's championship run "the most redemptive season in the history of college basketball," and NBC Sports took it a step further by calling it "the greatest redemption story in the history of sports." UVa was 23-7 when the season was shut down last March.
Brad Brownell came to Clemson for the 2010-11 season, after so-so stints at UNC-Wilmington and Wright St (not a single NCAA bid) and has produced a modest four, 20-win seasons and just two NCAA berths in his tenure. However, he returned four starters plus Fordham transfer Nick Honor is now eligible. The Tigers are 9-1 (3-1 in ACC) and ranked No. 12, as they welcome No. 18 UVa (8-2 / 4-0 ACC) to Littlejohn Coliseum on Saturday.
UVa lost the 6-9 Diakite (13.7 & 6.8) and 6-8 big guard Key (9.9 & 7.4) but this year's team has four double-digit scorers and decent depth. 6-8 Marquette transfer Sam Hauser (13.8 & 7.5), the returning 7-1 Huff (12.9 & 5.8), 6-9 guard Trey Murphy (10.9) and returning PG Clark (10.8 & 3.6 APG) are in double figures. The Tigers are led by 6-8 senior forward Aamir Simms (12.6 & 5.8) and senior guard Clyde Trapp (7.3 & 5.1). Simms was a preseason All-ACC first-team and Trapp is surrounded by guards Honor (10.7) and Dawes (9.7).
'
Virginia (8-2, 4-0) is tied with Louisville atop the ACC after bouncing Notre Dame 80-68 on Wednesday, its highest-scoring game since a season-opening 89-54 rout of Towson. The Cavaliers roll into Clemson having won 10 straight in the series, with the Tigers' most recent victory occurring in January 2013. However, this year's Clemson team has taken care of business, aside from a 66-60 loss at Virginia Tech, presently ranked 20th, in its league opener back on Dec 15. The Tigers have won four straight, including a 74-70 overtime decision against North Carolina State in their last game on Jan 5. Clemson coach Brad Brownell hopes the 11-day layoff without a game doesn't disrupt the rhythm his team built in its successful stretch. UVa is known for its defense and is allowing 60.3PPG (13th) this season. However, Clemson can match and TOP that, allowing just 57.6 PPG (5th). After 10 straight losses, ENOUGH is ENOUGH. Take Clemson!
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Jan 16 '21, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Cleveland State vs Wright State
Play on: OVER 133 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Cleveland State vs Wright State over 133 -110

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Kenny Walker Jan 16 '21, 7:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Senators
Play on: Maple Leafs -190 at Draft Kings

Free Pick on Maple Leafs

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Stephen Nover Jan 16 '21, 7:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Senators
Play on: Maple Leafs -1½ +121 at pinnacle

The Senators finished 30th out of 31 teams last season. The Maple Leafs have the talent to seriously contend for the Stanley Cup.
Maturity, not talent, is the question regarding Toronto. The Maple Leafs opened with a narrow home victory against Montreal in overtime, overcoming a two goal deficit lead. Toronto then took an early lead against the supposedly hapless Senators last night. The Maple Leafs, apparently overconfident and full of themselves, proceeded to get thoroughly outplayed giving up three goals during the final 10:30 of the second period in a 5-3 loss. Fredrik Andersen didn't play well in net. Neither did defenseman Morgan Reilly, nor Auston Matthews who was minus three during his time of the ice. Now the specter of getting swept by the Senators during the opening weekend of the season lurks for the Maple Leafs. So expect a much more determined effort by the Maple Leafs - both physically and mentally. Andersen is likely to be replaced by Jack Campbell in net for this game. Reilly is primed for a big season and Matthews is in the argument for best player in the NHL. Ottawa looks improved with nine new faces making their Senators debut last night, including former Penguins goalie Matt Murray. It's going to take the Senators a while to jell without a preseason for their many new teammates, though. They pulled their upset surprise Friday. I don't see it happening again today. Neither does the oddsmaker making the Maple Leafs such a heavy favorite. So I'm going with the puck line, laying 1 1/2 goals, to turn this line into a plus profit in the belief this is a kill spot for Toronto.

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John Martin Jan 16 '21, 7:35 PM in 7h
NBA | Hornets vs Raptors
Play on: Hornets +7 -108 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Charlotte Hornets +7
The Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors just played on Thursday. The Raptors won 111-108 at home. Now we take the revenge-minded Hornets as 7-point dogs here as they play just two days later. The Hornets are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Raptors are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS this season. The Hornets are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games against teams that win less than 40% of their games. Charlotte is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. Charlotte is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 trips to Toronto. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Give me the Hornets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Jan 16 '21, 9:30 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Washington State vs USC
Play on: Washington State +13 -110 at BetCris

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Washington State +13
The Washington State Cougars are coming off two straight blowout road losses to Stanford (60-75) as a 7-point dog and UCLA (61-91) as a 9-point dog. They were 9-1 going into those two games with their only loss to Arizona by 4 in overtime.
Now the value is really good with the Cougars here Saturday as 13-point underdogs to USC, easily their largest underdog role of the season. And USC is coming off a 95-68 win as a 13.5-point favorite over Washington, which has added to the value.
But this is an awful spot for the Trojans. They will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days after needing overtime to beat UC-Riverside 67-62 as a 14-point favorite on Tuesday. And you're definitely paying a tax to back the Trojans now after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Washington State Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ricky Tran Jan 16 '21, 10:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Gonzaga vs St. Mary's
Play on: Gonzaga -15½ -108 at Draft Kings

Ricky's 7* play on the Bulldogs
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Bulldogs have won by 20+ in three of their last four games.
- The Bulldogs rank 2nd nationally scoring over 96 points per game.
- The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Verdict: The Gaels have lost six of seven to Gonzaga, all by double digits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price Jan 16 '21, 10:05 PM in 9h
NBA | Hawks vs Blazers
Play on: Blazers -4½ -110 at all

Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Portland Trail Blazers -4.5
The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Their only win came against a short-handed 76ers team when they were 6-point favorites. They lost all 5 games by 5 points or more. And now the Hawks are in a terrible spot tonight as they will be playing for a second consecutive day after losing 92-116 in the altitude in Utah last night. The Blazers had yesterday off and will be hungry to bounce back from a loss to the Pacers in the 2nd of a back-to-back. They had won 4 straight prior to that defeat. Atlanta is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups. Take Portland.

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Mike Wynn Free Pick: Tennessee -17 over Vanderbilt

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Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: LOUISIANA TECH -9½ over UTSA

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Totals4U Saturday's Free Selection: Washington Huskies/UCLA Bruins over 141

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Roz Wins ROZ's SATURDAY, JANUARY 16, 2021
FREE CBK
738. Loyola Chicago -10.5 (3 PT / 6 ET)

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Atlantic Sports
Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Illinois State Redbirds + 4

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#1 Sports Saturday's Free Play: Tennessee Volunteers - 18

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Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the Loyola Chicago -10 over Northern Iowa

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Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, January 16, 2021
FREE NFL
303. Bal/Buf UNDER 49.5 (5:15 PT / 8:15 ET)

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Saturday Selection Is
Syracuse -4½

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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday : Take INDIANA ST -4½ over Illinois St

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Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Saturiday
Kansas -14 CBB

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Hawkeye Sports Saturday's Free Pick: Notre Dame Irish - 4 1/2

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Huddle Up Sports

Saturday Free Play:
Marquette -1' CBB

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Arthur Ralph

SAT UNDER 219 1/2 Spurs/Rockets

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The Last Call Saturday's Free Play: Arkansas State - 2 1/2

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Teyas Sports FREE PICK 1/16/2021 CBB UTAH ST -4 1/2

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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Saturday: UNLV -10½ over New Mexico

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High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Saturday: Colorado State Rams - 19 1/2

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Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Saturday: SA/Hstn OVER 219½