Sunday 2/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

February 14, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo has a 12-race card scheduled to close out the weekend. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 9 and it will be my focus. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

2-Bettor In The Bank (6-1)-Veteran drops to a better level for success but will need a cozy trip. Roland takes the lines and he won with this 11-year-old on 1-2 versus easier. Can pass foes down the lane with the right steer and should be a solid price.
5-In For The Chase (5/2)-Steps-up as an odds-on winner and was Cutting's choice over #2. Has won 10 of 31 at CalX and Plested trainee can take another picture versus this crew.
6-Vicious Aloicious (6-1)-Has only 2 wins in the last 42 tries but has shown improvement in the last couple of races. Kerwood's choice over #3 and he might be able to squeeze out a win.
8-Ridonkuloso (9/2)-Plano's choice over the #4 could beat this crew with a top effort. Will likely leave for the top or duck and make an early move. Either way it will be about the trip and how much fight will be left to finish off the mile.

Race 10

1-Tropical Fruit (12-1)-This mare might be able to beat the boys tonight. This isn't a deep group and Stewart can get sucked around with this post draw and rally down the lane at a nice price.
6-Johnny Ringo (3-1)-Program chalk paced the last half in 56.2 and just missed in last. Gets a post edge over last week's winner #8 and may even the score tonight.
9-Glen (5-1)-Svendsen seems to get the best out of this 4-year-old. From this post the price should be much better than even money, as was the case last week.

Race 11

1-Jupiter Johnny (5-1)-This is a 1.5-mile race which adds to the confusion. Thinking that Cutting will protect the rail and race near the top of the stack. Has been rallying down the lane but hasn't won in 11 tries at CalX. Not sure any were at this distance.
5-To The Limit (8/5)-No real value at the morning line but does like to roll late and has won 13 of 57 at CalX. Often, the added distance races aren't won by a closer but rather someone who races near the point. That is a concern here.
7-Heza Big Dealer (7/2)-Big Jim 7-year-old is versatile and Plano has some flexibility. Could leave or race off cover and has won 3 of 11 at CalX.

Race 12

4-California Rock (7/5)-Drops to the softest spot this meet and really has no excuse to not cash the biggest check. Has won 10 of 31 here but is only 4 for the last 28. One move type should be tough to beat with a smooth trip.

0.20 Pick 4

2,5,6,8/1,6,9/1,5,7/4
Total Bet=$7.20

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 2/14/21

February 14, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Love My Jimmy; 8-Tacoflavoredkisses

Forecast: We’ll try to survive the opener using just two in a wide-open grass sprint for starter allowance optional claiming 3-year-olds. Tacoflavoredkisses exits a pair of stakes races and is realistically spotted while dropping in class and continuing to look decent in the morning for Callaghan. The Distorted Humor colt gets Lasix, switches to turf, and picks up F. Prat, so we’re expecting him to be a strong factor with a good stalking trip. Love My Jimmy is a quick type and should be on or near the lead throughout. On pure numbers he’s good enough to win and there’s no reason he can’t duplicate his dirt form on the lawn.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: A-
Single: 3-Happier

Forecast: Happier was highly impressive winning her debut last summer at Del Mar but then had to be stopped on. She returns for B. Baffert (superb stats with layoffs) and has trained even better now than she did before her first start, so we expect a huge run from the daughter of Street Sense. She’s 9/5 on the morning line but is the second choice behind the smart first-out winner Pharoah’s Heart (7/5), who easily defeated Bye Bye Miss Pie, herself a sharp winner in good style on Friday. You can double the race if you’d like, but we’ll take a stand and use Happier in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Capital Call; 2-Waraire; 3-On Easy Street; 10-Cosmo

Forecast: This is a messy turf miler for older maidens, so we suggest you use as many as your budget allows. On Easy Street has hit the board in his last four and was nosed out in his most recent start, so the son of Street Boss may finally be ready to earn his diploma. He should be able to secure a position somewhere in mid-pack and then have dead aim from the head of the stretch to the wire. Waraire, third in the same race On Easy Street exits, will be making just his third career start and thus may have more room to improve than most of the others. J. Rosario got to know him last time out and stays aboard. Cosmo is stuck way outside and is an eight-race maiden without any real turn of foot, but he had a recent sprint tune-up off a layoff when closing with some interest to be third, retains F. Prat, and has speed figures that make him a major player. His N. Drysdale-trained stable mate Capital Call lands the good rail, has trained okay for his first start since September and has run reasonably well over this course in the past. At 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Single: 4-Royal Blend

Forecast: There’s little substance in this maiden $40,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies so Royal Blend, while not offering any real value at 8/5 on the morning line, seems the most likely winner based on the class and numbers that are good enough to win at this level. She also has the route-to-spring angle that we like and a bullet recent half mile workout to have her on edge. She’s a rolling exotic single by default in a race that probably is best left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Honos Man; 6-Justin’s Quest; 9-Liberal

Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming turf miler came up pretty light. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Justin’s Quest has never been known to punch it in under pressure but this shortening to a mile should help and a recent sharp workout indicate he’s doing well. The R. Baltas-trained gelding is solid on numbers and projects to settle in a good second flight position and then have his chance from the quarter pole to the wire. Honos Man, a close fifth in the same race Justin’s Quest just finished third in, is another that might enjoy this one mile journey, and with the switch to F. Prat the P. Miller-trained gelding looks very much like a live item. The son of Afleet Alex will enjoy a nice ground-saving, stalking journey. Liberal drops to a realistic level, picks up J. Rosario, and seems the most dangerous of the deep closers.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: X
Single: 8-Wicks and Chappies

Forecast: Wicks and Chappies was a no-excuse runner-up in a similar bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares last month but she shortens up a furlong today and from her outside post will have every chance to control the race from start to finish. However, she’s 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, so you can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Royal Address; 8-Pizzazz; 9-Majestic Steps

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Sweet Life S.-G3 for 3-year-old fillies sprinting on turf came up fairly competitive. Royal Address, a stakes winner last September at Chantilly in France, has worked like she’s fit and ready for N. Drysdale and may simply out class this field. The Irish-bred filly can settle behind the leaders and then blast home, so with clear sailing through the lane she should be capable of tagging the speed. Pizzazz showed promise when closing nicely to be second in her sprint debut last summer but has been flattening out in her last couple of two-turn tries so this return to a one-corner affair should make her extremely dangerous from off the pace. She’s 8-1 on the morning line and offers value at that price. Majestic Steps looked good winning her U.S. debut with sharp turn of foot last month and earned a good number in the process. The filly she defeated came back to win, so with top turf rider U. Rispoli staying aboard the Irish-bred filly seems likely to be heard from in the final furlong.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Uno Trouble Maker

Forecast: Though she failed at 8/5 in a tougher starter’s allowance sprint at Los Alamitos in December, Uno Trouble Maker, a six-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, returns to her favorite strip and should regain her winning form in this modest $10,000 seller for older fillies and mares. She projects to be on or near the lead throughout, and in a race with suspect closer she should be capable of rolling all the way to the wire under F. Prat. If not’s her, it could be just about anybody else, so let’s take a stand and make her rolling exotic single while expecting the six year old mare to be perked after a nearly two month vacation.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Big Talker; 2-Circleofchampions; 9-Big Flint

Forecast: Big Flint, a son of Flintshire and therefore bred to improve as the distances increase, stretches out to nine furlongs today, and with patient handling looks capable of producing the last run. The P. Eurton-trained Cal-bred gelding, in the frame in both of his starts with rising numbers and making major jockey change to J. Rosario, is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and will offer good value at that price if you can get it. Big Talker is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail and continues to make progress with experience. A nice runner-up while finishing just ahead of Big Flint in that common race in early January, the son of Mr. Big retains F. Prat and is another that should enjoy today’s extra furlong. Circleofchampions, fifth in that same race after pressing the pace throughout, may prefer to be taken back and permitted to make one run. Give that type of strategy, the C. Gaines-trained colt could easily outrun his 8-1 morning line.
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Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream

February 14, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

The late Pick Four Sunday at Gulfstream Park ends with a maiden event, but what a maiden race it is.

The distance turf races for 3-year-olds generally come up quite interesting, and Race 11 (5:48 p.m. ET, maidens) is no exception.

It’s the fourth leg of the sequence, which begins in Race 8 and includes a pair of good claiming races and an inviting allowance optional claiming.

The suggested Pick 4 ticket totals $64 and the final leg has four fillies included on the ticket. The maiden races at Gulfstream often produce future stakes stars, and these runners are nothing short of promising. Alwayz Late (from trainer Bill Mott), Deemed Essential and Cadencia (each from Todd Pletcher) and Victorian Gold (a promising first-timer from Rusty Arnold) get their buttons pushed on this Pick 4. Here’s a look at their chances:

ALWAYZ LATE rallied for third against slow fractions on a “good” turf course at Churchill last out and is first-time Lasix for this affair.

DEEMED ESSENTIAL tries the turf after a pair of seconds and most recently a fifth. Has good speed and can be a factor from the get-go.

CADENCIA was so close in breaking her maiden last time that she will get a ton of support here. She has been in spots that looked very good for her but she came up slightly short. Her very best could get it done today.

VICTORIAN GOLD is a first-time starter for Rusty Arnold and has been impressive during the mornings at Palm Meadows. Impressively bred Ireland native could have a strong showing at first asking.

Here’s a capsule peek at the contenders in the first three races on the late Pick 4:


Race 8 (4:12 p.m. ET, claiming)

MEMPHIS SHOWBOAT hasn’t won in nearly a year but with a break or two could’ve stacked up a few more successes last year. She does her best following a fast pace and can close well on occasion.

ALOHA KITTEN was claimed by Bob Hess, Jr., last out when she just missed. She’s tuning up her game and is a logical contender.

COME STORMING changed her running style last out and make a strong run for second. Has responded to trainer Mike Maker’s touch since being claiming three back.

KELLEYCANRUN comes off her best effort in quite a while when Paco Lopez rode her to a third-place finish. Can finish with a great deal of interest in this spot.


Race 9 (4:44 p.m. ET, claiming)

TWIRLING FAITH comes out of better races and in two or three of those was a strong player on the front end. Gets Lopez for her first Gulfstream appearance.
SHADILEE was a $75,000 claim by Maker in her first start and has been in some challenging races. Drops to her lowest level and can respond with a big effort.


Race 10 (5:16 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

LINNY KATE closed well in both races, including a maiden win over this course a year ago. Hasn’t raced much but often that’s not a huge factor for Brown runners.

NOPE could be saying yep if she can improve off her first U.S. start, which produced a fourth-place finish. She broke her maiden in Ireland and barely missed at Newmarket in her last start in Europe. Has been off since April but has a group of useful works since the first of the year.

SETTING THE MOOD was fourth in the G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational in September and was fourth in her first here. Is a good bet to improve off her latest.

DIAMOND SPARKLES was a closing third in a Grade 3 on the turf at Woodbine and has run in three countries in nine starts.

Gulfstream Park’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
8) #1 Memphis Showboat, #3 Aloha Kitten, #4 Come Storming, #7 Kelleycanrun,
9) #1 Twirling Faith, #2 Shadilee.
10) #1 Linny Kate, #2 Nope, #8 Setting the Mood., #10 Diamond Sparkles.
11) #1 Alwayz Late, #2 Deemed Essential, #5 Cadencia, #7 Victorian Gold.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 1-3-4-7 with 1-2 with 1-2-8-10 with 1-2-5-7 ($64)

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 Majestic Steps Her North American debut was awesome, and the filly she beat was back for an easy score here last weekend. Confident riser.
#7 Five Pics Please Just beat a handful of these in gate-to-wire fashion, and she figures to have a go for it from the break again here.
#11 Plum Sexy Finished well behind Five Pics Please in that common race last out, and she's a late threat again with these. 10/1 ML price would seem appealing.
Race Summary Majestic Steps takes a hike into Grade III company, but her maiden win was super-sharp, and Risopli sticks here instead of with recent allowance winner Five Pics Please.

Santa Anita - Race #0
Picks Notes
#8 Sybil's Kitty She has been competitive with this kind, and tossing anything from the Mulhall barn is a dicey proposition right now. Danger from close range again.
#2 Uno Trouble Maker Think it's worth trying to beat this one after the really dull try off the claim. Granted, it came with better, but she's back down beneath the original claim price off the bench. Can do, but not for me.
#10 Todos Santos Finisher may find a couple of these a bit too tough, but she figures to come running late for a piece of this at a square price.
Race Summary Sybil's Kitty has a repeat chance off a solid score at this level and likely chalk Uno Trouble Maker is dropping off a flat run.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#8 Mensa On Tap I thought she ran a great race last out at 146-1. She broke slowly, and she had to pause a few times while advancing on the far turn. She then had to take up twice off heels in the lane and still finished with some enthusiasm instead of throwing in the towel. Lasix today, 30/1 ML? Sign me up for a swing.
#9 Big Flint Couldn't get the job done at 6-5 last out, but she may still be capable of better than she has shown through two starts. I wouldn't want anything shorter than 5/2 if I were landing here.
#7 Warrens Candy Man Gets back in with his maiden friends after a decent run with stakes company last out. He gets Lasix while getting back on the grass, and he wouldn't be a shock here.
Race Summary Taking a shot with Mensa On Tap after a tricky sort of debut trip at a huge price. He figures to offer another fair number on the board, and with a cleaner go of things, he might make some noise.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 Khozy My Boy Tired a bit late but held second last out and makes his first appearance since July; fits at the level and can dig in vs. this group.
#3 Weekend Dreamer Has excellent early foot and likely will get to where he likes to be -- right on the front end; troublesome if he breaks free.
#7 Monte Ne Was an easy winner last time in a race that came off the turf but was also a big player in a pair of turf races just prior to that; could be an effective stalker.
Race Summary Khozy My Boy gets his chance to return to the turf, where he was a decent second last year; has been second in three of his last four.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Henry's World Tired last time a much better group than this but went wire to wire two races back; has speed and gets a good draw.
#1 Macho Blue Made a solid run for second last time and has been on the board in his last four; his last effort was off a 10-month layoff.
#3 Ahead of Plan Won two straight on turf in New York last summer and makes his first since a rough effort in December.
Race Summary Henry's World is very rapid, can get to the lead and is usually tough when he does; big player on the class drop.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 No More Business Finished second, just ahead of Bold Agenda last out and has improved position in all four of his races; experience and a late kick can make him one to hold off.
#3 Bold Agenda Held on for third in his only start and has worked well since then; probably a factor throughout.
#1 Winter Pool Brown first-time has worked well and the son of Curlin makes his first start at the age of 4.
Race Summary No More Business is getting closer with each start and should be set up by a solid pace.