Saturday 4/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Nick Borrman Event: Eintracht Frankfurt at Dortmund
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score + OVER 2.5 Goals (-130)
Germany Bundesliga
A lot is on the line here in this meeting. Frankfurt currently holds the 4th and final Champions League spot with 47 points while Dortmund is right behind them in 5th place with 43 points. Dortmund has a big Champions League matchup coming up this week against Manchester City but they can’t lose sight of the fact that they need to win this game.
The total is set high at 3.25 and I do think there will be goals in this game as both teams push for the win. So if the Over 3.25 goals is going to hit, both teams are likely to score to see the total hit at least four goals so playing the Both Teams to Score + OVER 2.5 Goals prop is how I’m looking at this game.
First, Dortmund has a 19-7 O-U 2.5 Goals record while Frankfurt has a 16-10 O-U record. On top of that, Dortmund has a 16-10 Both Teams to Score record and Frankfurt has the highest mark of any team in the Bundesliga with 22 of their 26 matches seeing Both Teams Score.
In seven of the last ten H2H meetings between these teams, this prop has hit and with so much on the line here, it’s hard to see anything but a similar game here.
For an additional play, I think this game is likely to play out to a 2-1 score line either way. So I’m also playing two correct scores at 0.5% each. Dortmund 2-1 is +825 and Frankfurt 2-1 is +1400.
TAKE BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE + OVER 2.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 4% to -150

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Kevin Dolan Event: (200013) Liverpool at (200014) Arsenal
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total Under 3.0 (-149)
We like the Under 3 goals in Saturday's EPL matchup between Liverpool and Arsenal.
Liverpool have continued to struggle of late in the Premier League as they try to make one final push for a top four Champions League spot for next season. Just two wins from their last eight however leaves them well off the pace and they may struggle to break Arsenal down here on Saturday.
Liverpool have averaged just 0.63 goals per game since February 1st in league action and have the EPL's 13th lowest xg data across that span also.
Arsenal meanwhile have been dominant on defense over that stretch, especially at home, where they're allowing just 1.19 xga per game.
All five of Liverpool's most recent games have seen Under 2.5 get to the window and we like another low scoring affair to take place here on Saturday.
Take Liverpool and Arsenal Under the total in the EPL for this weekend.
PLAY: UNDER 3

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Gianni the Greek Event: (309041) Colgate at (309042) Fordham
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Fordham +3.0 (-105)

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Oskeim Sports Event: (801) Houston at (802) Baylor
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 5PM EDT
Play: Total Under 134.0 (-110)
Baylor likes to push the tempo with its four-guard lineup but still finished the 2020-21 regular season with an adjusted tempo rank of 186th. The Cougars prefer a slow pace of play (328th in offensive tempo) and rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Houston also ranks first in effective field goal percentage allowed, fourth in 2-point field goal defense (42.6), and allows only 53% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math.
Houston's elite length and athleticism guard the perimeter as well as any other team in college basketball. Baylor is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation (41.1%, first in the NCAA) but the Cougars own the nation's 11th-best three-point field goal defense (29.2).
The Bears have clearly regained the edge they played with during the first three months of the season before being shut down for three weeks in February due to COVID-19-related issues. Baylor forced Arkansas into 15 turnovers in the Elite 8 and held Villanova to 37.5% shooting in the second half (0-for-9 from three) in its Sweet 16 victory. The Bears should cause similar disruption to a Houston attack that is shooting just 43.7% from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc.
From a technical standpoint, the UNDER falls into a very strong 42-20 totals system of mine that involves games with totals between 130 and 139.5 and teams that have committed eleven or fewer turnovers in back-to-back games. The UNDER is 23-9 in Houston's last 32 games as an underdog (4-0 L/4 at a neutral site), 19-7 in its last 26 games versus .601 or greater opposition, and 13-3 ATS in its previous sixteen games following an against-the-spread loss.
Take the UNDER as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick Winner for Saturday, April 3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (565) Cleveland Cavaliers at (566) Miami Heat
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Total Over 204.5 (-110)
Some value on the Over between Cleveland and Miami tonight.
While Miami's defense has improved in recent games, Cleveland's has actually underperformed, dropping from a season average 22nd in defensive efficiency to now 24th.
And while on the subject of Miami's defense, while they rank #1 over their three most recent games, and #6 overall on the season, at home they've been really sub-par this year, ranking 20th overall.
Both of these teams have been miserable from behind the arc this season, ranking 2nd and 3rd last respectively, but Cleveland's recent form has seen them drop off even more, a full 6.1% off their season average.
With Miami's questionable defense metrics at home this season, plus the fact Miami rank 23rd on defense from opponent three point range, including giving up 40.5% to Golden State last time out, we expect the Cavaliers to find more success perimeter shooting here tonight and with Miami responding, push this one Over the total on Saturday.
Take Cleveland/Miami Over the total later tonight.
PLAY: OVER 204.5

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Bobby Conn Apr 03 '21, 11:00 AM in 2h
Soccer | Lille OSC vs Paris Saint-Germain
Play on: Paris Saint-Germain -150 at linepros

1* Free Play on Paris Saint-Germain -150

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Red Dog Sports Apr 03 '21, 12:30 PM in 4h
Soccer | Manchester City vs Leicester
Play on: Leicester +505 at pinnacle

Leicester +505
Manchester City is a fantastic team but will be playing on the road vs. the #3 team in the England Premier League. Manchester United beat them 2-0 recently so they are not unbeatable. Plenty of value on the home team at +505.

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Ricky Tran Apr 03 '21, 12:30 PM in 4h
Soccer | Manchester City vs Leicester
Play on: OVER 2½ -115

Ricky's 1* free play on Over.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Citizens lead the Premier League in scoring with 64 goals.
- Leicester City ranks 3rd in the Premier League in scoring with 53 goals.
- The last meeting ended with a 5-2 victory for Leiscester City.
Verdict: This should be a high scoring affair.

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Steve Janus Apr 03 '21, 1:08 PM in 5h
NHL | Penguins vs Bruins
Play on: UNDER 5½ -118

1* Free Sharp Play on Penguins vs Bruins under 5½ -118

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Info Plays Apr 03 '21, 3:30 PM in 7h
Soccer | Deportivo Cuenca vs Delfin
Play on: Delfin -133 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Delfin -133

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AI Picks: April 3 Triple Crown Preps

April 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This Saturday’s Triple Crown prep races toward the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes will be a cross-country triple of the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. To help you handicap the premier stakes 4 weeks in advance of the Kentucky Derby, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the data for all 3 races.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Bet the Santa Anita Derby with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET and take advantage of our $20 money-back guarantee if your win bet finishes second or third.

Aqueduct Racetrack // Grade 2 Wood Memorial // Race 10 // 5:58 PM ET

#1 Brooklyn Strong // 30%W // 50%P // 61%S
#4 Risk Taking // 19%W // 37%P // 52%S
#2 Crowded Trade // 15%W // 26%P // 43%S
#8 Weyburn // 12%W // 29%P // 44%S
#7 Candy Man Rocket // 8%W // 15%P // 31%S
#5 Dynamic One // 5%W // 13%P // 18%S
#3 Bourbonic // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#6 Prevalence // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#9 Market Maven // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S

Keeneland // Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes // Race 11 // 6:35 PM ET

#4 Essential Quality // 30%W // 50%P // 62%S
#9 Keepmeinmind // 19%W // 37%P // 52%S
#3 Highly Motivated // 15%W // 26%P // 43%S
#5 Rombauer // 12%W // 29%P // 44%S
#6 Leblon // 8%W // 15%P // 31%S
#1 Hidden Stash // 5%W // 13%P // 18%S
#2 Untreated // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#7 Hush of a Storm // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#8 Sittin On Go // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S


Santa Anita Park // Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby // Race 8 // 7:15 PM ET

#7 Medina Spirit // 32%W // 47%P // 58%S
#2 Dream Shake // 16%W // 37%P // 49%S
#9 The Great One // 14%W // 25%P // 35%S
#8 Law Professor // 10%W // 21%P // 27%S
#10 Defunded // 10%W // 15%P // 35%S
#3 Rock Your World // 6%W // 15%P // 31%S
#1 Roman Centurian // 4%W // 13%P // 29%S
#6 Ottothelegend // 4%W // 11%P // 17%S
#4 Parnelli // 4%W // 7%P // 10%S
#5 Back Ring Luck // 4%W // 7%P // 10%S

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Our Experts Rank Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

April 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

It’s Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass and Wood Memorial Week, the 4-week outpost until the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Between now and next week’s Arkansas Derby, the field for the first Saturday in May will take much of its shape.

Our resident historians and handicappers check back in with their mid-March Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. We’ve included the projected next start for each horse in parentheses (subject to change).

Jeff Siegel

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)
#7 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Prevalence (Wood Memorial)
#9 Rock Your World (Santa Anita Derby)
#10 Helium (Kentucky Derby)

Jon White

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Keepmeinmind (Blue Grass)
#9 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)
#10 Dream Shake (Santa Anita Derby)


John DeSantis

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#3 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#7 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Highly Motivated (Blue Grass)
#9 O Besos (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)

Jeremy Plonk

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Proxy (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Prevalence (Wood Memorial)
#10 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)

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Jeff Siegel's 2021 Triple Crown Power Rankings
March 30, 2021
Our Triple Crown Tracker power rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.

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1 - ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 4-4-0-0 ($1,335,144). Derby points: 40
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Southwest S.-G3, finished first.
Next start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2
Latest workout: March 27, Fair Grounds, 5f, 1:00.2b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior), racing wide throughout but accelerating impressively in the final furlong; had secured a 2020 Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old colt division to complete an unbeaten juvenile campaign in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie; previously won his 6F debut at Churchill Downs by four lengths in September (rallying from seven and one-half lengths back) and then registering a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland after pressing slow fractions; speed figures are strong and have risen with each of his four career victories; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
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2 - CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($756,600). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5FF Rebel S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby.-G1
Latest workout: March 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h

The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); unbeaten in three career starts, most recently a dominating gate-to-wire victory in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park (by four and one-quarter lengths from stable mate Hozier), quickly establishing the pace from his outside draw and then, after disposing of favored Caddo River, drawing clear under mild urging to win with plenty left; earned solid but not great 94 Beyer speed figure; previously successful with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 (by one-half length from stable mate Freedom Fighter) after winning his debut three weeks earlier in 6F maiden score in a highly impressive performance at Santa Anita (forced pace, then kicked clear with power and with plenty left); pedigree suggests a classic distance could be within his capabilities; has so far followed the identical pattern/schedule as B. Baffert’s top class colt from last year, Nadal; likely to use the Arkansas Derby-G1 (April 10) as his final springboard to the Kentucky Derby-G1 three weeks later and seems certain to be a heavy favorite; based purely on speed figures still has some doubters but seems likely to enter the spring classics with undefeated record.
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3 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience and distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was thought of early in his career and a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
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4 - HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 122 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register two length score (from Midnight Bourbon) while establishing NTW (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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5 - MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($165,200). Derby points: 48
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, San Felipe S.-G3, finished second
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 22, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); genuine and consistent though no match for stable mate (and top-ranked) Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; reportedly exited the race with an entrapped epiglottis which has since been rectified; previously had displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; before that finished second (beaten three-quarters of a length while 13 clear of the rest) to Life Is Good in 8F Sham S.-G3 in January; speed figures are legitimate; pedigree suggests he’ll do better as the distances increase; clearly a much better prospect that originally judged and could easily return to winning form in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 now that Life Is Good will not start and has been removed from Triple Crown consideration.
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6 – RISK TAKING (C. Brown) – 121 Lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 4-2-0-0 ($182,530). Derby points: 10
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Aqueduct, Withers S.-G3, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 27, Belmont Park, 4f, :49.4b TT

The skinny: $240,000Y, dam multiple stakes placed on grass; best runners from his female family also preferred turf; unplaced in first two career starts during the fall of his juvenile campaign but has vastly improved since, breaking his maiden over 9F at Aqueduct on dirt in December and then stepping forward again over that same track and distance when winning the Withers S.-G3 in early February (by three and three-quarter lengths from Overtook after producing an extended, grinding late bid); speed figures are headed in the right direction but with some work still to be done; room for further improvement and clearly will be suited by 10F and farther; seems likely to produce another forward move in the 9F Wood Memorial-G2 in early April in a race that he’ll very likely be favored.
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7 - GREATEST HONOUR (C. McGaughey III) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-2 ($351,940). Derby Points: 80
Last start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8.5F Florida Derby-G1, finished third
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Was entered but withdrawn from 2019 Keeneland fall sale, second foal, dam unplaced half-sister to four SW’s including Rags to Riches and Jazil (both winners of Belmont S.-G1) and to BC Marathon S.-G1 winner Man of Iron; second dam Broodmare of the Year Better than Honour; impressive come-from-behind winner of the 8.5F Holy Bull S.-G3 (by five and three-quarter lengths from Tarantino) in January and then the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (by one and one-half lengths from Drain the Clock) the following month but finished a non-threatening third (beaten nearly six lengths) in the 9F Florida Derby-G1 in his most recent outing at odds of 4/5 when racing in some traffic to the head of the lane but lacking a solid closing kick; has never been fast on speed figures (has yet to earn a Beyer speed figure in the 90’s) and may have been a tad overrated all along; notoriously lazy in morning workouts; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 with serious issues to answer.
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8 - PREVALENCE (B. Walsh) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Enrichment, by Ghostzapper
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($52,800). Derby points: 0
Last start: March 11, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8F allowance, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 28, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.3b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Libreta (by Giralomo); dam winless in eight starts but is a full-sister to top class middle distance turf G1 winner Better Lucky; was forced to miss his intended second career start in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 Feb. 27 after spiking a fever but reappeared March 11 in an 8F six-runner first-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park and was successful at 10 cents on the dollar (by three lengths from Southern Passage) with a perfect, stalking trip while earning a moderate speed figure in a performance that can best be described as workmanlike; was previously far more impressive winning his debut by eight and one-half lengths in 7F maiden in January when pressing the pace in hand and then kicking clear without ever being asked;; bred to stay at least a middle distance and potentially farther; with no Derby points will need to step forward considerably in what will have to be his final Kentucky Derby-G1 prep in the Wood Memorial-G2; remains an exciting prospect but finds himself behind the 8-ball with still plenty to prove.
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9 - ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($96,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Santa Anita, Pasadena S., finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 28, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in two starts, both on grass, most recently when drawing clear with a good display of late speed to win the listed 8F Pasadena S. in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) before being hard to pull up and galloping out full of run; previously had debuted over 6F on grass and registered a one and three-quarter length victory with a good number despite being eased up in the final stages while appearing to toy with his opposition; pedigree suggests he’ll handle any surface and be able to cope with a classic distance though he appears to be a better mover on turf than on the main track according to his workouts; will get his opportunity on dirt in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April; at which time his Triple Crown prospects will become apparent; remains an exciting prospect, at the very least on grass.
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10 – HELLIUM (M. Casse) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 27, Palm Meadows, 4f, :49.1b

The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the pace and from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and reportedly will now have two months in between races and train up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field that actually providing him the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.

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Also eligible: Soup and Sandwich (M. Casse); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Highly Motivated (C. Brown); Weyburn (J. Jerkins); Rombauer (M. McCarthy);); Crowded Trade (C. Brown); Keepmeinmind (R. Diodoro); O Besos (G. Foley); Like the King (W. Ward).
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Derby Post Draw Rapid Reaction
March 31, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Derby attracted a field of 10 as entries were drawn today for the west coast’s premier Triple Crown prep. Medina Spirit, winner of the Bob Lewis Memorial Stakes and runner-up in the San Felipe, drew post 7. He’ll carry the baton for the Bob Baffert stable in the absence of unbeaten San Felipe winner Life is Good, who recently underwent ankle surgery and will miss the spring classics.

Medina Spirit went wire-to-wire in the Lewis, but conceded the lead to the faster Life is Good last time out. He could be back on the engine Saturday in a race that lacks serious early pace. Baffert’s quest for a record-padding 10th Santa Anita Derby victory, which also includes last-out maiden winner Defunded (post 10), does come with challenges both new and old.

Dream Shake (post 2), Roman Centurian (post 1) and The Great One (post 9) all were behind Medina Spirit in the San Felipe. The trio took different trajectories most recently, Dream Shake an impressive third while attending the pace and Roman Centurian and The Great One a bit more disappointing in a flat fourth and tiring fifth, respectively. Expect Dream Shake and The Great One to show more speed in the Derby than they did in the San Felipe, when connections had to be more cautious about attacking that race’s heavy favorite Life is Good. Medina Spirit won’t instill as much pace fear. The inside-outside draws for Dream Shake and The Great One also will force their rider’s hands to use more early speed.

As for the new faces to the Santa Anita Derby trail, undefeated Rock Your World (post 3) has impressed in two starts on turf and will try the dirt for the first time under the tutelage of John Sadler, who won his only Santa Anita Derby in 2010 with Sidney’s Candy. He has tactical early speed and should not be far off the pace if he handles the dirt. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen sends late-running Oaklawn maiden winner Ottothelegend (post 6) west for a class test as the field’s lone ship-in competitor.

2021 Santa Anita Derby Field

1-Roman Centurian (Juan Hernandez)
2-Dream Shake (Flavien Prat)
3-Rock Your World (Umberto Rispoli)
4-Parnelli (Edwin Maldonado)
5-Back Ring Luck (Tyler Baze)
6-Ottothelegend (Mario Gutierrez)
7-Medina Spirit (John Velazquez)
8-Law Professor (Kent Desormeaux)
9-The Great One (Abel Cedillo)
10-Defunded (Mike Smith)

The Santa Anita Derby is one of 6 stakes on the big card in Arcadia, which welcomes fans back in limited attendance for the first time in more than a year. No walkup ticket sales will be available; all seating must be purchased in advance. The card also features the Santa Anita Oaks, a pair of turf stakes, and a pair of stakes for the California-breds. First race post time will be noon PT.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass & Wood Memorial Picks
April 1, 2021 | By Johnny D

The rubber meets the road Saturday when a trio of critical Kentucky Derby points races are decided from coast to coast.

In New York, the historic Gr. 2 Wood Memorial ought to help sort a crowded group of contenders, including Withers winner Risk Taking and Gotham hero Weyburn. Unbeaten invader Prevalence adds intrigue.

In California, trainer Bob Baffert, marching toward a record seventh Kentucky Derby victory, sends out Robert B. Lewis winner and Santa Anita Derby favorite Medina Spirit as ‘the other next man up’ among Baffert’s deep roster of talented sophomores.

In Kentucky, Essential Quality, the consensus number one-ranked Kentucky Derby hopeful, hopes to use the Gr. 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland to springboard toward becoming just the fourth 2-year-old Champion since 1999 to win the Kentucky Derby.

When the dust settles Saturday evening, the Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby, a week away, will remain as the only major Derby prep race on the map worth a total of 170 points toward spots in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The Lexington at Keeneland is the final pre-Derby event scheduled with 34 total points.

Last week, Known Agenda leapfrogged a host of others toward the top of everyone’s Kentucky Derby contender list with a dominant tally in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby. Gulfstream’s Championship Meet leading trainer and jockey, Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., respectively, combined talents with the son of Curlin for the Florida Derby victory at generous odds of 5-1. It was the third win in six starts for Known Agenda and his second consecutive score over the Gulfstream strip. Lasix and blinkers were added for Known Agenda’s previous score, an 11-length mile and one-eighth allowance victory, following a mediocre effort as favorite in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay.

Favored Greatest Honor had no real excuse and failed to fire for the first time in four races as his third-place Florida Derby finish ended a streak of three consecutive victories, including the Gr. 3 Holy Bull and Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth. Post-race, Hall-of-Fame trainer Shug McGaughey suggested the Tapit colt may not have enjoyed being stuck inside of other horses and that blinkers will be sampled in an upcoming workout.

Longshot Soup and Sandwich stayed on honestly for second, his only loss in three starts. Racing greenly through the stretch in his previous start, the son of Into Mischief clearly bested just two rivals for victory in a Tampa Bay allowance race. Saturday, at Gulfstream in a Gr. 1 event, he bettered all but one in the field of 11.

Below is one man’s humble horse-by-horse opinion of runners in the Gr. 2 Wood, Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby and Gr. 2 Blue Grass, including suggested wagering strategies.

GRADE 1, $750,000 SANTA ANITA DERBY
SANTA ANITA PARK (RACE 8 @ 6:30PM ET) // 1 1/8 MILES
Kentucky Derby Points: 100-40-20-10

1. ROMAN CENTURIAN (CALLAGHAN/HERNANDEZ)

Second to favored #7 Medina Sprit by a neck in the Gr. 3 Robert B. Lewis and a nose in front of eventual Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie, Roman Centurian actually fits in here. Unfortunately, he didn’t fire in the Gr. 2 San Felipe Stakes and finished fourth, several lengths behind runner-up #7Medina Spirit and third-place finisher #2 Dream Shake. He showed no early speed from the seven post and passed a few tired runners. Can he bounce back to his Lewis performance level or did that race do him in for a while? We prefer to see a forward move from this son of Empire Maker before backing him. Move from outside to inside should help a bit. Pass.

2. DREAM SHAKE (EURTON/PRAT)

At 20-1 odds, he dominated a loaded Santa Anita maiden sprint race in February and then was tossed to the wolves in the mile and one-sixteenth Gr. 2 San Felipe next out. He didn’t run badly, as he was lapped on #7 Medina Spirit through the lane until he understandably tired, to be third, two lengths out of second, behind former Kentucky Derby Future Book favorite Life is Good. He has been working well for his return to the races. It’s always a difficult call with this type after just two races. Will his San Felipe experience move him forward? Or, will that demanding effort in only his second start set him back? Top jock Flavien Pratt helps his chances. Exotics.

3. ROCK YOUR WORLD (SADLER/RISPOLI)

He has looked fantastic in two 2021 turf scores at Santa Anita. Connections figure he’s sharp, talented and unbeaten…why not take a shot in the local Gr. 1 $750k Derby? In turf starts, he’s been close to the early pace and then been able to explode through the lane at six furlongs and at one mile. We’re generally not a fan of horses switching surfaces after showing ability over a certain layout. ‘Horses for courses’ mantra applies. Also, very few horses are as good on one surface as they are on another. Rock Your World is excellent on turf. He’ll have to show us he’s excellent on dirt, too. Pass.

4. PARNELLI (SHIRREFFS/MALDONADO)

Second in three starts before breaking maiden going one mile at Del Mar, this son of Quality Road was a well-beaten third in the Gr. 3 Sham and then a poor fifth in the Robert B. Lewis. He really needs to turn around his recent stuff to have any say in here. Pass.

BACK RING LUCK (SADLER/T. BAZE)

Expect this new arrival to SoCal to show some early pace in this race. He won a $62,500 allowance/optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park last out in early March. He closed out his 2-year-old season with a $30k maiden claiming victory at Churchill Downs in November and was claimed. Before that he had a second and a third at the $30k maiden claiming level. He would be a major surprise in the money in this race. Pass.

6. OTTOTHELEGEND (ASMUSSEN/GUTIERREZ)

This son of Uncle Mo invades from starts at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park. The latter effort was a winning one in a mile and one-sixteenth maiden race in March. It’s asking a lot for him to ship to SoCal and display the same strong closing style that proved effective in Hot Springs. Pass.

7. MEDINA SPIRIT (BAFFERT/VELAZQUEZ)

Second in the Gr. 2 San Felipe behind former Kentucky Derby Future Book favorite and stablemate Life is Good, this son of Protonico was purchased for just $35k. That’s a pittance when compared to some of the price tags associated with other major 3-year-old contenders. Off that race and considering three other performances where he’s been no worse than second, with two wins, he’s the one to beat. Both of his losses came at the hooves of Life is Good and he’s not in this race while recovering from surgery. Medina Spirit’s got enough speed to be close early and he’s shown a determined, grinding style that served him well when denying #1 Roman Centurian and eventual Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie in the Gr. 3 Robert B. Lewis. Since that race he had a slight throat procedure that figures to help him breathe adequately. A better breathing Medina Spirit is not good news for his challengers. Beat him to win it. Most Likely Winner.

8. LAW PROFESSOR (MCCARTHY/DESORMEAUX

An impressive two-turn, mile maiden tally on the heels of a poor first-out effort in a loaded maiden sprint won by #2 Dream Shake encourages connections to take a shot with this son of Constitution in the Santa Anita Derby. While the maiden score was impressive—he was wide the whole way—this is a huge step up in competition. He’s sharp, fit and trained by a talented conditioner. He deserves some respect at a price. Exotics.

9. THE GREAT ONE (O'NEILL/CEDILLO)

It took this son of Nyquist a while to get going before he demolished a Santa Anita mile maiden field by 14 lengths in his first start of 2021. He followed that up with a weak outing in the Gr2 San Felipe Stakes behind Life is Good, #7 Medina Spirit, #2 Dream Shake and #1 Roman Centurian. He was lapped on #7 Medina Spirit most of the way early but couldn’t keep up late. As a 2-year-old, he started by finishing sixth in a turf sprint stakes at Santa Anita. Two fourth-place finishes in one-mile races, one dirt and one turf, were followed by a start in the Gr. 2 Los Alamitos Futurity at one mile and one-sixteenth where he lost by a nose to Spielberg. He has shown speed in most of his races and is most effective when he’s involved early but he’ll need to show more ‘stick’ this time out. Pass.

10. DEFUNDED (BAFFERT/SMITH

This son of Dialed In is the ‘other’ Baffert in the race. SoCal racing fans know to always beware of the ‘other Baffert.’ A sparkling maiden score while sprinting second time out suggests that the future is bright. He raced mid-pack before closing the gap off the turn when he was bumped solidly while splitting horses. He actually lost action for a moment under Joel Rosario, then found his best stride and flew home under a hand ride. The win came off a layoff since August and a third-place finish in his maiden voyage as favorite. Stretching out from six furlongs to one mile and one-eighth and a stepping up from a maiden victory to a Grade 1 stakes race are indications that this guy has impressed connections. A bullet 1:12 4/5 six-furlong work March 24 encouraged them, as well. This guy has lots of ability. He’s dangerous in here and he’s the ‘other Baffert’ with ‘Money Mike’ Smith up. Don’t know if he’s seasoned enough to handle his stablemate and post #10 doesn’t help, but he’s worth a look. Win Candidate.


BOTTOM LINE:

#7 Medina Spirit is clearly the one to beat. He’s got the best ‘paper,’ a nearly unbeatable trainer, and a Hall of Fame jockey. He’s got enough pace to be close early and he’s shown ‘stick’ at the finish. He’s also had a throat procedure designed to help him breathe. #10 Defunded has nowhere near the experience one would think necessary to win this race. OK. So, what’s he doing in here? King of the 3-year-olds Bob Baffert already has the race favorite and top 10-ranked Kentucky Derby candidate in #7 Medina Spirit. Why hurry this colt along? Our guess is that this guy has real talent and that he’s faced some obstacles getting here. However, if he can finish among the top three, he’s got a spot in the Kentucky Derby for owners Pegram, Watson or Weitman, some of Baffert’s most loyal supporters. #2 Dream Shake has talent, but he’ll need to hang on much better than he did last out and he won’t be much of price with top jock Flavien Prat.


WAGERING STRATEGY:

$10 Exacta ($30 Total)

1st: #7
2nd: #2, #8, #10

$5 Exacta ($15Total)

1st: #10
2nd: #2, #7, #8


GRADE 2, $750,000 WOOD MEMORIAL
AQUEDUCT (RACE 10 @ 5:58PM ET) // 1 1/8 MILES
Kentucky Derby Points: 100-40-20-10

1. BROOKLYN STRONG (D. VELAZQUEZ/FRANCO) - 6/1

Winner of three of four races, he hasn’t been to post since early December when he won the Gr. 2 Remsen Stakes over a ‘sloppy’ track. He’s based at Parx and has a sparkling bullet, best-of-16, five-furlong work in 59 3/5 for this. He’s a New York bred and won the Sleepy Hollow, a state-bred race, at Belmont in October. His style should put him close to the early pace saving ground on the rail. It’s asking a bit much for a gelding that broke maiden in a $40k claiming race at Delaware Park in September to win a Gr. 2 3-year-old New York stakes in March, but he’s already proven himself in the Big Apple by winning the Gr. 2 Remsen in the slop! Still, coming off a layoff since December, he’ll need to prove he’s matured as much as the rest of these. Pass.

CROWDED TRADE (BROWN/CANCEL) - 4/1

With just one start under his belt—a six-furlong maiden win in late January--this son of More Than Ready stretched out to one mile last out in March and just missed winning the Gr. 3 Gotham by a nose to the more experienced #8 Weyburn. Crowded Trade broke a bit awkwardly and had to make up ground in the early going, he moved outside the leaders off the turn and appeared to have dead aim on #8 Weyburn in the stretch but wasn’t able to follow through completely. Top jock Eric Cancel returns in the saddle for multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown and this one has every right to improve. Win Candidate.

3. BOURBONIC (PLETCHER/CARMOUCHE) - 30/1

Poor efforts in his first two races—sprinting on dirt and routing on turf—demanded a class drop to a $50k maiden claiming race at Aqueduct over a ‘good’ track. That did the trick and this son of Bernardini won that race and his next at the starter $50k allowance/optional claiming level. Last out he was a well-beaten second behind #9 Market Maven at Parx in a $50k allowance/optional claimer. There’s little on paper to suggest this one can hit the board in this race. Pass.

4. RISK TAKING (BROWN/ORTIZ JR.) - 5/2

Blinkers were added two races back and this son of Medaglia d’Oro is unbeaten in two mile and one-eighth races since, including a maiden win and a strong victory in the Gr. 3 Withers at Aqueduct. He was unremarkable in his first two starts, finishing seventh and sixth in a sprint and turf race, respectively. Multiple Eclipse Award winning trainer Chad Brown combines with fellow multiple Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz and they are a potent winning team (30% at Aqu). This colt has come from off the pace in his previously strong efforts. Top Win Contender.

5. DYNAMIC ONE (PLETCHER/J. ORTIZ) - 12/1

Winner of a maiden race last out in his fourth try, this son of Union Rags claims a close, runner-up finish to highly regarded Greatest Honour in a second time out maiden route race. That was at Gulfstream, the first of two starts there in December and January. His maiden win came when returned to Aqueduct in March at one-mile and one-eighth. He stalked a longshot pacesetter that afternoon, took over off the turn and drew clear by more than five lengths. Perhaps, he’s seen the light? He has been favored in three of four starts and was even money in his last two. That suggests talent probably is lurking somewhere beneath the surface. Exotics.

6. PREVALENCE (WALSH/GAFFALIONE) - 3/1

Unbeaten in two starts, this son of Medaglia d’Oro first raised eyebrows when he broke maiden at Gulfstream Park going seven furlongs in late January. Unfortunately, after the race he had a fever and lost some training time. He didn’t make his next start until mid-March when he romped home in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at just 10 cents to a dollar. It’s not clear how good this colt might eventually be. He’s sharp and has solid connections in trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Of course, this will be his first race away from Gulfstream Park, but there’s no reason to think he can’t handle the Aqueduct surface. Win Contender.

7. CANDY MAN ROCKET (MOTT/ALVARADO) - 12/1

Favored in the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby last out, this son of Candy Ride laid a huge egg when finishing next to last of 12. Public support was based on back-to-back wins in previous races—one of them at Tampa in the Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis and one at Gulfstream for a maiden win. Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott is willing to give this guy another shot at making it to the Kentucky Derby and the conditioner certainly knows what he’s doing. However, it’s difficult for us to back a horse that ran so poorly last out in a recent effort. We’re okay with sometimes drawing a line through a poor race but that one was too bad to excuse. Pass.

8. WEYBURN (JERKENS/MCCARTHY) - 9/2

This son of Pioneerof the Nile made his first 2021 start a winning one when he gamely prevailed by a nose over #2 Crowded Trade in the Gr. 3 Gotham in March at nearly 50-1 odds. He had been off since December, when he won a seven-furlong maiden race. In the Gr. 3 Gotham, he pressed the early pace going one mile, took over and held. Today’s one mile and one-eighth test will be his first around two turns. According to his connections, distance shouldn’t be an issue, but he really did lay it all on the line last out off a long layoff and it might be difficult for him to repeat that effort. Pass.

9. MARKET MAVEN (PEARCE/HADDOCK) - 30/1

This will be Market Maven’s first try outside the friendly confines of Parx where he has won two of four starts—a PA-bred maiden race going seven furlongs and a ‘sloppy’ mile and one-sixteenth $50k allowance/optional claiming race. This is a big step up from that competition where #3 Bourbonic was second to him, four lengths back, last out. Market Maven has speed and basically went wire-to-wire for both of his wins. He’s sharp and a big price. Pass.


BOTTOM LINE:

This race is unlike the other two major 3-year-old races on Saturday’s docket. There is no clear choice in this race. #4 Risk Taking seems most likely to win but he’s far from a cinch. #2 Crowded Trade, stablemate in the Chad Brown barn to the favorite, has upside. The new face in the lineup is #6 Prevalence, an unbeaten Florida invader who also appears to have upside. #8 Weyburn had his day in the sun last time at 46-1 and we don’t feel he can repeat that big effort right back. #5 Dynamic One from the Todd Pletcher barn is very interesting. Granted, the jump from maiden to Grade 2 stakes is huge, but this colt may be ready to move forward and get a piece of this.


WAGERING STRATEGY:

$2 Trifecta ($24 Total)

1st: #4
2nd: #2, #5, #6
3rd: #1, #2, #5, #6, #7

$1 Trifecta ($12 Total)

1st: #2, #5, #6
2nd: #4
3rd: #1, #2, #5, #6, #7




GRADE 2, $800,000 BLUE GRASS STAKES
KEENELAND (RACE 11 @ 6:35PM ET) // 1 1/8 MILES
Kentucky Derby Points: 100-40-20-10

1. HIDDEN STASH (OLIVER/BEJARANO) - 20/1

Liked this closer’s chances in the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby at 3-1 and in mid-stretch he looked a certain winner as he closed ground on longshot Helium. Unfortunately, Helium kept going and Hidden Stash was denied victory. Perhaps, a five-wide move around the turn took too much out of this son of Constitution? He’ll probably still need to come wide in here and he’s got an extra sixteenth of a mile to deal with. Jockey Bejarano has ridden the colt three times and won twice with him. He’ll probably attempt to save ground early from this rail post. There’s not much pace in the race to aid this Vickie Oliver runner but, as far as finishing in the money is concerned, he’s golden, with five out of six finishes no worse than third. He’s a big price to maybe use in exotics. Exotics at a Price.

2. UNTREATED (PLETCHER/ROSARIO) - 8/1

This son of Nyquist didn’t raise a hoof as odds-on favorite first-out going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park in early January. Off until March, he returned fresh as a sprint day to win a one mile and 40 yards maiden race at Tampa Bay under Luis Saez by nearly nine lengths. Saez, obviously, sticks with race favorite #4 Essential Quality in here and it’s interesting to note that the replacement jockey aboard this colt is the red-hot Joel Rosario. There’s nothing on paper to suggest that this colt has a chance to hit the board in this race but the presence of Rosario hints that the barn is hopeful of his chances. What’s he doing in a Gr. 2 stakes race off two starts, including a maiden win at Tampa Bay? This is Hall of Fame shoo-in Todd Pletcher picking the spot, not some 8% shoot-for-the-moon conditioner. Somewhere down the backside at Tampa the light went on for this guy and he swept to victory. Lots of upside here. We’ll go along for the ride at a price. Exotics Update.

3. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (BROWN/CASTELLANO) - 7/2

The Gr. 2 Wood Memorial will give us an idea of how strong the New York-based 3-year-old contingent is this year and this Chad Brown runner is one of the best of that group. He’s won two of four lifetime starts, one of them at Keeneland in the Nyquist Stakes at six and one-half furlongs. The son of Into Mischief has been favored in all three starts since finishing second first out at 4-1 in the mud at Saratoga. Odds-on last out in the Gr. 3 Gotham Stakes, his first route going a one-turn mile, he broke a bit slowly, steadied inside leaving the chute, angled out for the drive, changed leads late and finished ok. It was the kind of race that suggests more is in the tank. But how much more? And how will he handle two-turns? Those are tough questions to be asking in April. Exotics, but not much Price.

4. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (COX/SAEZ) - 3/5

After winning the BC Juvenile and being named Eclipse Award winner as North America’s top 2-year-old male, Essential Quality made his first 2021 start a winning one over Spielberg and five others in the Gr. 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. It was a dominating performance that extended his lifetime unbeaten streak to four. Jockey Luis Saez has been aboard for the last three. Trainer Cox has said that all systems are go for the champ and there’s no reason to doubt him. Two of Essential Quality’s wins have come over the Keeneland surface, including his BC Juvenile triumph, so there’s no ‘there’ there. This race doesn’t have much early speed, but this son of Tapit has been able to race close-up in most cases. It appears as if he will extend his unbeaten record to five and move toward the Kentucky Derby as possibly the race favorite. Strictly One to Beat.

5. ROMBAUER (MCCARTHY/GEROUX) - 15/1

This son of Twirling Candy came alive over a synthetic surface in winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate. He made a furious late charge to get up by a neck. Before that he had one notable try out of three stakes races. He finished second in the Gr. 1 American Pharoah. Following that he was fifth, beaten over six lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race common to others in this field. His only other victory came first time out in a maiden mile turf race at Del Mar. This colt has talent but with his only wins coming on turf and synthetic surfaces, we’ll limit his use to the bottom of exotics. It is noteworthy that trainer McCarthy, who vacillated between the Wood, Santa Anita Derby and here, has engaged top jock Florent Geroux for the mount. Bottom Exotics Only.

6. LEBLON (LOBO/JIMENEZ) - 30/1

He’s won one race in five starts and doesn’t stack up with the rest on paper. He appears to be a long-fused runner that will appreciate added real estate. He broke maiden in his fourth start, the first time he went one mile and one-sixteenth. Last out, going one mile and one-sixteenth in an allowance race at Oaklawn Park, he steadied early in the race, rode the rail down the backside while being steadied repeatedly, was behind horses off the turn and never really was asked late. It was a troubled trip, for sure. Don’t know if he’s good enough to hang with this crew, but he’s a big price and may be running at the end. He appears to have enough speed to be mid-pack early. He’s a real reach on paper but we like that last race. Maybe the mud moved him up? He’ll be in our exotic mix at a huge price. Bottom Exotics.

7. HUSH OF A STORM (MOREY/GONZALEZ) - 15/1

His only dirt race going seven furlongs at Churchill downs for a $150k maiden claiming price was a disaster as he circled the field in eighth place out of 12 starters. Then he found Turfway Park and a synthetic surface. That made all the difference to him. He won his next three starts, including the Battaglia and was one of the ones to beat in last Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks. Trainer Bill Morey scratched this Creative Cause colt from the race and points him here. No doubt the move is to see if, now that he’s on his game, he can handle dirt and gain starting gate points toward the Kentucky Derby. We’re guessing he’s not quite as good on dirt as he is on synthetic. Pass.

8. SITTIN ON GO (ROMANS/LANERIE) - 30/1

This son of Brody’s Cause won the first two races of his career as a 2-year-old, including the Gr. 3 Iroquois at Churchill, and hasn’t been close since. He would be a major surprise in any Kentucky Derby points earning position. Pass.

9. KEEPMEINMIND (DIODORO/COHEN) - 8/1

This deep closer added blinkers three starts back in the BC Juvenile and the addition proved helpful as he was third in that race, behind #4 Essential Quality and Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie. On the heels of that score, he returned in late November to win the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. He finished no worse than third in four of five lifetime starts. Trouble is that his worst finish came in his last race, his first of 2021, when he was sixth of eight behind Concert Tour in the Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes. His closing style puts him behind the eight-ball to begin with and there’s not much speed in this race. Those are two strikes against him. He has shown an affinity for the track, so that’s a plus, but that last race really sticks in our craw. He was wide most of the way, made a brief move on the turn and didn’t follow through in the lane. Maybe he needed the race? Maybe he didn’t like the track? Or, maybe he hasn’t matured along with his classmates? All things considered we’ll pass on him. Pass.


BOTTOM LINE:

From where we sit, there aren’t many ways to go in here. #4 Essential Quality passes the ‘eye’ and ‘paper’ test. He’ll be an extremely short price to win and he will be used on top in an overwhelming majority of exotic wagers. Our advice is to ‘stay loose and bet a deuce’ in here. Well, maybe a bit more than just a ‘deuce.’ #1 Hidden Stash and #2 Untreated have longshot chances to finish in the exotics underneath #4 Essential Quality. #6 Leblon is a bomb with long-range and big price capability. #3 Highly Motivated could hit the exotics but is too short a price to combine with the favorite in any legs except, perhaps, in the bottoms of tris and supers.


WAGERING STRATEGY:

$1.00 Superfecta ($40 Total)
1st: #4
2nd: #1, #2
3rd: #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, #9
4th: #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, #9

Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Saturday's Santa Anita Oaks
April 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$400,000 GRADE 2 SANTA ANITA OAKS
Saturday, April 3, 2021

The Lead:
Behind every great Derby is a great Oaks, and Santa Anita Derby Day is no exception. The 12-race card is California's premier event of spring, and the Grade 2 $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks will be 1 of 6 stakes on the program. It settles mid-card in Race 6 and kicks off an all-stakes pick 4. Horseplayers also will be challenged on the card to a 20-cent Rainbow 6 mandatory payout in Races 7-12 that is expected to reach $5 million in pool size.

​Field Depth:
BEAUTIFUL GIFT has the field's lone graded stakes win in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel. BEAUTIFUL CUT has placed at the Grade 2 level. MORAZ and JAVINICA are Grade 3-placed.

Pace:
Cat-and-mouse tempos are typical in this size of a field and the Oaks likely will be about rider intent. Of the 21 total past performance lines in this field, exactly 1 has an Oaks contender on the early lead -- BRILLIANT CUT in the Santa Ynez. But she's hardly a burner and this is not the kind of race to rely on pace as the decider because of its ambiguous shape.

Our Eyes:
BRILLIANT CUT has the race's A-list victory with her Santa Ynez head victory over MORAZ. They rematch at the same distance 4 weeks later and the winner retains Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who is back in town to ride Medina Spirit in the Derby. MORAZ was forwardly placed in that 4-horse Santa Ynez and from the rail Saturday may be forced to do more early than probably is her best. She was left short in the last encounter likely in part for the same reason.

SOOTHSAY was brilliant in her March 26 workout at XBTV, running 6-furlongs in race time of 1:11-2/5, dusting a $600K unraced Curlin 3YO colt for fun. She looked even better than her promising debut sprint win suggested. You'd expect that from trainer Richard Mandella, whose runners improve with time and development. Her dam Spellbound was slower to develop for Mandella, finished 4th in her Santa Anita Oaks and would go on to win the Grade 2 La Canada. SOOTHSAY appears to be on a much faster trajectory.

JAVANICA looked home free in the 1-1/8 miles El Camino Real Derby last time out vs. the boys at Golden Gate Fields. It took a classy colt like Rombauer, fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last autumn, to run her down. She's wisely spotted back in with the Oaks cast, and should fit much better at the shorter trip. Her damside pedigree leans miler, and that's part of the reason she's wound up second-best in 4 straight races. Mike Smith takes the mount as Flavien Prat moves to SOOTHSAY.

​BRILLIANT CUT went off slow and came home quicker in a nice solo move March 27 as seen at XBTV.com. She'll need to harness in a similar fashion to get the 1-1/16 miles trip after sprints in 6 of her 7 starts. Her pedigree leans sprint as well, but this was a good sign of relaxing and finishing.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
BEAUTIFUL GIFT is a stakes winner over the track and distance, and it's Bob Baffert and John Velazquez on a big day. She's not dominant, but it's hard to see her outside of the trifecta.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
BRILLIANT CUT has finished underneath at big prices in past stakes and could click the bottom of the trifecta.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win SOOTHSAY.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White's Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass and Wood Selections
March 31, 2021 | By Jon White

Three biggies with Kentucky Derby ramifications will be run this weekend. They are the Grade I Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, Grade II Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Grade II Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

The first four finishers in these three 1 1/8-mile races will collect Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 basis. The 147th running of the Grade I, $3 million Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs on May 1.

Before getting to my picks for the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass and Wood, let’s review my selections for last Saturday’s Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.

I had the right approach to take a stand against the favorite in both of those races. Unfortunately, I did not go with the right horse in my attempt to beat the chalk.

Greatest Honour was backed down to 4-5 favoritism in the Florida Derby. I picked Spielberg first and Known Agenda second. Spielberg was sent away at 7-1. Known Agenda was 5-1.

I opted for Spielberg mainly because Southern California shippers had been doing so well lately in graded stakes races on the Kentucky Derby trail. I picked Spielberg even though he had drawn post 10 (not good) and had been inconsistent.

“Despite Spielberg’s unreliability, I’m going to stick with him as my top pick” in the Florida Derby, I wrote.

After Spielberg finished a respectable second in Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes, I thought maybe he finally would put together back-to-back good efforts last Saturday.

He didn’t.

Spielberg lost the Florida Derby by 17 1/4 lengths while finishing eighth in the field of 11.

Known Agenda won by 2 3/4 lengths. He paid $12.80 for each $2 win wager. Oh, how I am kicking myself for not making Known Agenda my top pick. I consider it a golden opportunity to have slipped through my fingers. (Insert frowny face emoji.)

This was trainer Todd Pletcher’s record sixth Florida Derby winner after Scat Daddy in 2007, Constitution in 2014, Materiality in 2015, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Audible in 2018.

Always Dreaming followed his Florida Derby victory by capturing the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. Pletcher also won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver.

In last Saturday’s Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, I also was on the right track to not go with 5-2 favorite Tarantino. He finished last in the field of 11. Hockey Dad was my top pick. Hockey Dad ran well, but he had to settle for third at odds of 7-1. The winner was Like the King, who likewise was sent away at 7-1.

For Xpressbet.com in late January, I began making selections in the U.S. races offering points toward the Kentucky Derby.

Of the 16 such races to date, I have picked the winner in eight of them, as noted below:

Date Race (Selection) Finish, $2 win payoff if applicable

01-30-21 Holy Bull (Greatest Honour) WON, $7.60
01-30-21 Robert B. Lewis (Medina Spirit), WON, $4.00
02-06-21 Sam F. Davis (Candy Man Rocket), WON, $8.20
02-06-21 Withers (Donegal Bay), finished 7th
02-13-21 Risen Star (Senor Buscador), finished 5th
02-13-21 El Camino Real Derby (Rombauer), WON, $4.40
02-26-21 Battaglia Memorial (Gretzky the Great), finished 3rd
02-27-21 Southwest (Essential Quality), WON, $3.80
02-27-21 Fountain of Youth (Greatest Honor), WON, $4.00
03-06-21 Gotham (Freedom Fighter), finished 4th
03-06-21 Tampa Bay Derby (Hidden Stash), finished 2nd
03-06-21 San Felipe Stakes, Life Is Good, WON, $3.00
03-13-21 Rebel Stakes, Concert Tour, WON, $5.40
03-20-21 Louisiana Derby, Proxy, finished 4th
03-27-21 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Hockey Dad, finished 3rd
03-27-21 Florida Derby, Spielberg, finished 8th


10 TO CLASH IN RUNHAPPY SANTA ANITA DERBY

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had planned to run Life Is Good in the Santa Anita Derby. The undefeated multiple graded stakes winner undoubtedly would have been an overwhelming favorite. But Life Is Good currently is on the mend from a left-hind ankle injury.

Undaunted by Life Is Good’s defection, the powerful Baffert barn still will be represented in the Santa Anita Derby by the likely favorite in Medina Spirit.

Medina Spirit, unlike Life Is Good, is not undefeated. Medina Spirit has won two of four career starts.

But Medina Spirit would be undefeated if not for finishing second twice to Life Is Good.

Medina Spirit began his racing career with a three-length maiden win in a Los Alamitos sprint on Dec. 11. The Florida-bred Protonico colt then finished second to Life Is Good in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 2. Four lengths off the lead at the eighth pole in the Sham, Medina Spirit came on thereafter to lose by just three-quarters of a length. That is the closest anyone has come to defeating Life Is Good.

After the Sham, Medina Spirit won Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes in game fashion by a neck on Jan. 30. He then again took on Life Is Good in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 6.

Life Is Good trounced Medina Spirit in the San Felipe. Life Is Good won by eight lengths, while Medina Spirit came in second.

Even though Medina Spirit did not win the San Felipe, he showed heart late in the race by retaking second after having been passed by Dream Shake. It’s all the more impressive that Medina Spirit finished second that day because he did so despite a throat issue.

After the San Felipe, Medina Spirit “had a little ulcer in his throat and looked like he was starting to entrap, so they did a minor procedure on it and he’s doing great now and has since turned in two works,” Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote.

One of the reasons I am not going to pick against Medina Spirit in the Santa Anita Derby is his trainer’s stellar record in this race. Baffert has won the Santa Anita Derby a record nine times (Cavonnier in 1996, Indian Charlie in 1998, General Challenge in 1999, Point Given in 2001, Pioneerof the Nile in 2009, Midnight Interlude in 2011, Dortmund in 2015, Justify in 2018 and Roadster in 2019).

Moreover, as Jeremy Plonk of Countdown to the Crown recently pointed out, check out which trainer has won almost all of Santa Anita’s 3-year-old graded stakes races going back to the 2019 Santa Anita Derby:

Trainer, Race, Winner

--Bob Baffert, 2021 San Felipe Stakes, Life Is Good
--Bob Baffert, 2021 San Vicente Stakes, Concert Tour
--Bob Baffert, 2021 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Medina Spirit
--Bob Baffert, 2021 Sham Stakes, Life Is Good
--John Shirreffs, 2020 Santa Anita Derby, Honor A.P.
--Bob Baffert, 2020 San Felipe Stakes, Authentic
--Bob Baffert, 2020 San Vicente Stakes, Nadal
--Bob Baffert, 2020 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Thousand Words
--Bob Baffert, 2020 Sham Stakes, Authentic
--Bob Baffert, 2019 Santa Anita Derby, Roadster

My selections for the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby are below:

1. Medina Spirit
2. Dream Shake
3. Rock Your World
4. Roman Centurian

With a furlong to go in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe, it looked like Dream Shake was going to run second after he had passed Medina Spirit. Dream Shake would go on to weaken a bit late and finished third. But the Kentucky-bred Twirling Candy colt certainly had a right to weaken some late in that it was only his second career start and it was his first race going farther than 6 1/2 furlongs.

Now, with two races under his belt, including a start in a 1 1/16-mile contest, it will not be surprising to see a big effort from Dream Shake this Saturday for trainer Peter Eurton.

Rock Your World is something of a wild card in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s two for two and appears to have a ton of talent. But both wins have come on the grass.

So, the question is, how will Rock Your World do when racing on the dirt for the first time this Saturday? He did record a bullet workout on the dirt last Sunday for trainer John Sadler, five furlongs in :59.20. Not only was it the fastest of 76 works at the distance that morning, it was two full seconds faster than the average time that day of 1:01.20.

John Sadler trains Rock Your World, whose sire, Candy Ride, set a track record of 1:59.11 when he won Del Mar’s Grade I Pacific Classic on dirt in 2003, a mark that still stands.

Roman Centurian finished fourth in the San Felipe, a race he lost by 13 1/2 lengths. But the Kentucky-bred Empire Maker colt is dangerous in the Santa Anita Derby off his effort in the Lewis when he lost by just neck to Medina Spirit.

In the Lewis, Roman Centurian nosed out Hot Rod Charlie for second. Hot Rod Charlie subsequently won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Louisiana Derby by two lengths.


BLUE GRASS STAKES TOPPED BY ESSENTIAL QUALITY

Essential Quality looms a short-priced favorite in the Blue Grass.

This drf.com headline was correct when it stated: “Essential Quality draws post 4 in nine-horse Blue Grass field.”

However, DRF writer Marty McGee once again was mistaken when writing that “Essential Quality has been assigned post 4 as the heavy favorite in a field of nine 3-year-olds in the Grade II, $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes, to be run Saturday at Keeneland for the 97th time.”

Assigned post 4? Just who did the “assigning?” Was it the racing secretary? Did someone else do the assigning?

No, Essential Quality did not get “assigned” post 4. He got post 4 in a random draw.

Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality is undefeated in four lifetime starts. Not only that, the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt is two for two at Keeneland.

Essential Quality won both the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last year en route to being voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male.

In his lone 2021 start to date, Essential Quality registered a 4 1/4-length victory as a 9-10 favorite in Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes, which was contested on a sloppy track Feb. 27.

My selections for the Blue Grass Stakes are below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Highly Motivated
3. Keepmeinmind
4. Rombauer


WOOD MEMORIAL ATTRACTS FIELD OF NINE

I honestly don’t like my chances of picking the winner in the Wood Memorial. I see it as a wide-open affair.

I am not particularly bullish on Prevalence. Sure, he might win. Prevalence is two for two and a definite contender. Who knows? Maybe he will go out there and win big.

But until I am proven otherwise, I think Prevalence is somewhat overrated (sort of like the Big 12 in March Madness). Prevalence’s Beyer Speed Figures of 87, then 83 just do not get my pulse racing. Similarly, a major reason I went against Greatest Honour in the Florida Derby is he had yet to run a Beyer above an 89.

While I do have Risk Taking ranked No. 9 on my current Kentucky Derby Top 10, I am not totally sold on him, either. Like Prevalence, a reservation I have concerning Risk Taking is he has yet to record a Beyer higher than 89.

What I do like about Risk Taking is the improvement he has shown since having blinkers added to his equipment (much like Known Agenda and Hot Rod Charlie).

Risk Taking is two for two with blinkers. I also like it that both of those victories came at 1 1/8 miles.

Chad Brown trains Risk Taking, a Kentucky-bred Medaglia d’Oro colt.

For me, the Wood pretty much boiled down to going with either Weyburn or Crowded Trade as my top pick.

Weyburn, trained by Jimmy Jerkens, won Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes on March 6 by a nose when credited with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. Crowded Trade lost by a scant nose for Brown when also being credited with a 95 Beyer.

The Gotham was Weyburn’s first start since Dec. 5. Crowded Trade, I thought, ran a heckuva race to nearly win the Gotham in that it was only his second career start.

Brooklyn Strong warrants consideration off his win in the Grade II Remsen Stakes on a sloppy track last Dec. 5 at the Big A. The concern with him, of course, is he has not started since the Remsen.

My selections for the Wood Memorial are below:

1. Crowded Trade
2. Weyburn
3. Risk Taking
4. Brooklyn Strong


KNOWN AGENDA JOINS KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

I had Greatest Honour ranked at No. 4 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 last week. After he ran third in the Florida Derby, Greatest Honour slides down a couple of notches to No. 6 this week.

Florida Derby winner Known Agenda debuts on my Top 10 this week at No. 4.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Concert Tour
3. Hot Rod Charlie
4. Known Agenda
5. Medina Spirt
6. Greatest Honour
7. Midnight Bourbon
8. Keepmeinmind
9. Risk Taking
10. Dream Shake

Five horses listed on my Top 10 are scheduled to race this Saturday. They are Essential Quality (Blue Grass), Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby), Keepmeinmind (Blue Grass), Risk Taking (Wood) and Dream Shake (Santa Anita Derby).


UPDATED STRIKES SITUATION

My Derby Strikes System (DSS) consists of eight categories developed to try and ascertain a horse’s chances to win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May from both tactical and historical perspectives. When a horse does not qualify in one of the categories, the horse gets a strike. The eight categories are listed at the end of this column/blog/article.

A number of the categories in the DSS are tied to the Kentucky Derby being run in May. Consequently, when the race was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 last year due to the pandemic, it rendered the DSS unworkable.

The DSS is back now that the Kentucky Derby is returning to its traditional spot on the calendar in 2021.

According to the DSS, going back to 1973 and excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, the vast majority of Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike.

Since 1973 (again excluding 2020), 39 out of the Kentucky Derby winners (81%) have had zero strikes or one strike, while just seven have had two strikes.

The seven Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were:

Cannonade (1974) Categories 3 and 4
Ferdinand (1986) Categories 2 and 4
Sea Hero (1993) Categories 3 and 5
Funny Cide (2003) Categories 2 and 8
Giacomo (2015) Categories 2 and 5
Justify (2018) Categories 1 and 8
Country House (2019) Categories 2 and 3

The only Kentucky Derby winner with more than two strikes was:

Mine That Bird (2009) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8

In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security had zero strikes and finished first by 1 1/4 lengths. However, the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th when ruling that he had committed a foul by veering out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.

It is not until a horse’s next race will be the Kentucky Derby that a horse’s number of strikes can be determined.

These are the strikes for 13 current candidates for this year’s Kentucky Derby who are scheduled to make their next start in that race:

ZERO STRIKES OR ONE STRIKE

Greatest Honour (Category 3)
Helium (Category 5)
Hot Rod Charlie (Category 4)
Known Agenda (no strikes)
Like the King (no strikes)
Mandaloun (Category 4)
Midnight Bourbon (Category 4)
Spielberg (Category 5)

TWO STRIKES

Hockey Dad (Categories 2 and 4)
O Besos (Categories 2 and 3)
Sainthood (Categories 2 and 7)
Soup and Sandwich (Categories 2 and 7)

THREE STRIKES
Papetu (Categories 2, 4 and 5)


ESSENTIAL QUALITY FAVORED IN FUTURE WAGER

In Pool 1 of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which closed on Nov. 29, Life Is Good was the 5-1 favorite among the 22 individual horses. Essential Quality was the second choice at 8-1.

In Pool 2 of the KDFW, which closed on Jan. 24, Life Is Good was the 7-1 favorite among the 23 individual horses. Essential Quality again was the 8-1 second choice.

In Pool 3 of the KDFW, which closed on Feb. 14, Life Is Good again was the 7-1 favorite and Essential Quality the 8-1 second choice among the 23 individual horses.

In Pool 4 of the KDFW, which closed on March 7, Life Is Good was hammered down to 2-1 favoritism after his eight-length San Felipe victory. Essential Quality was the 5-1 second choice.

Pool 5, which is the final 2021 KDFW pool, closed last Sunday. Essential Quality was the 4-1 favorite. The “All Other 3-Year-Olds” option, which includes Florida Derby winner Known Agenda, closed at 5-1, as did Grade II Rebel Stakes winner Concert Tour.

Below are the final odds for Pool 5 of the 2021 KDFW:

4-1 Essential Quality
5-1 “All Other 3-Year-Olds”
5-1 Concert Tour
9-1 Greatest Honour
12-1 Hot Rod Charlie
13-1 Medina Spirit
21-1 Prevalence
25-1 Highly Motivated
27-1 Midnight Bourbon
28-1 Helium
30-1 Risk Taking
31-1 Rock Your World
33-1 Caddo River
35-1 Weyburn
36-1 Collaborate
36-1 Mandaloun
38-1 Crowded Trade
44-1 Hozier
45-1 Dream Shake
46-1 Spielberg
50-1 O Besos
51-1 Proxy
53-1 Hidden Stash
SCR Hush of a Storm

Wagering on Hush of a Storm was suspended after he emerged from his third-place finish in the Rebel with an injury, according to Churchill Downs.


THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

Mystic Guide rose to the top of this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll after winning last Saturday’s Group I, $12 million Dubai World Cup by 3 3/4 lengths.

Trained by Michael Stidham, Mystic Guide now is two for two this year. The 4-year-old Ghostzapper colt splashed his way to a six-length victory in Oaklawn’s Razorback Handicap on Feb. 27 in his 2021 debut.

Stidham has been training since 1979. I first got to know him in 1980 at Louisiana Downs. He won multiple stakes races at that Louisiana Downs meet with Me Good Man and Viterbo. When I saw Stidham do that, it was clear to me that the young conditioner might go on to accomplish some big things.

And now, all these years later, Stidham has added a victory in the rich Dubai World Cup to his resume.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 333 Mystic Guide (21)
2. 328 Charlatan (10)
3. 309 Monomoy Girl (6)
4. 249 Swiss Skydiver (1)
5. 231 Knicks Go
6. 193 Colonel Liam
7. 122 Idol
8. 68 Maxfield
9. 52 Shedaresthedevil
10. 45 Gamine

Following Known Agenda’s Florida Derby triumph, he debuts at No. 4 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 373 Essential Quality (31)
2. 330 Concert Tour (6)
3. 258 Hot Rod Charlie
4. 240 Known Agenda
5. 185 Medina Spirit
6. 178 Greatest Honour
7. 89 Risk Taking
8. 88 Life Is Good (1)
9. 70 Midnight Bourbon
10. 51 Helium


MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

April 3, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 13-race card ready to go tonight with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Barrage Hanover (4-1)-Has been in fine form and battled in last at this class from post 7 but couldn't catch #6. There's no reason to dismiss with this inside post draw, should get the right trip to get revenge.
5-Sombodyitreasure (3-1)-Absolutely flew home in 53.2 in 1st start since 11-1 to come 2nd to this week's morning line choice. Has never missed the board in 5 starts at M 1 recording 2 wins. Looks like a main player tonight.
6-Always And Again (9/5)-Comes off a determined effort but got a really nice steer from AMac. Best to not overlook but will be a short price and not sure the journey will be as good.

Race 7

2-Ima Real Ladys Man (9/2)-Will need the right trip and doesn't win often but drops to a better spot. Miller can get a cozy trip from this post and roll by down the lane at a square price.
3-Sawyer's Desire (6-1)-Raced fine in 1st start since 12-14 and this Burke trainee drops to a spot to shine. Did pace the 2nd half in .54 in last, could be tighter in 2nd Big M start and should like the company. Can be in the mix at a fair price.
4-Lyons King (7/2)-TMac takes a spin and maybe he can squeeze a little extra to capture the 1st win of 2021. Looks like a player and is tough to leave off the ticket but is only 1-12 here.
8-Jesse Duke N (3-1)-Jesse didn't race like a 4/5 shot last week but has hit the board in 7 of 10 in East Rutherford with three pictures. Should be a much better price and Dunn could find some live cover to be in the hunt at the wire.

Race 8

9-Nows The Moment (7/2)-Qualified on the engine last week in 152.4 and drew off with a 26.3 last quarter. Winner in 5 of 19 at M1, has banked over $110K last year and fits well with this crew. The post makes the price and if dialed on high could get the top and not look back.
10-Pikachu Hanover (3-1)-This won't be as easy from post 10 and not crazy about missing a start but still seems like the biggest threat to my top choice. Will need a sharp steer but price should be fair and has been in the hunt versus this kind in the last two starts.

Race 9

1-Paternity Suit A (8-1)-Loses Zeron but Joe B knows how to be aggressive and protect the rail. Has cashed checks versus better and is in sharp form, using at what could be a nice price.
3-Harmbe Deo (3-1)-Makes 1st start since 1-2 and does come off a nice qualifier at M1 on 3-27. Drops to a soft spot and loves the Big M winning 10 of 33 starts. It could be a nice night for the Cullipher barn if this 6-year-old is ready to battle.
7-Covered Bridge (7/2)-Comes off a sharp qualifier not letting #3 get by down the stretch. Burke trainee looks ready for a big try. Fits with this crew, has won 3 of 9 starts at the Big M and Gingras knows well.

0.50 Early Pick 4

2,5,6/2,3,4,8/9,10/1,3,7
Total Bet=$36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/3/21

April 3, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click here to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

Click to view our Wood Memorial S.-G2 Video Analysis

Click here to view our Blue Grass Stakes-G2 Video Analysis

Click here to view our Santa Anita Derby-G1 Video Analysis



RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Cinnte Winnte; 6-Shezaghost; 8-Crazy Speighty

Forecast: Cinnte Winnte attracts the stable’s preferred rider (U. Rispoli) for her U.S. debut and this Irish-bred 3-year-old filly – a promising runner-up in her only European outing before being sent to California – looks well-placed to graduate at 4-1 on the morning line. A first-time Lasix user with a series of better-than-looked recent main track workouts that should have her fit and ready, the P. Gallagher-trained filly earned a Timeform rating (80) last fall in Ireland that makes her capable of handling this assignment. Crazy Speighty shows rising speed figures with each outing for P. D’Amato, and despite her outside draw is the one to fear most. Sparingly raced, making just her fourth career start and her second off a long layoff, the daughter of Speightstown had a good recent sprint tune-up that should have her primed for a significant forward move on the stretch-out. Shezaghost adds blinkers, continues to work well and projects to have a strong pace presence. She’s another likely to improve with experience and is worth including at least as a back-up or a saver on your rolling exotic ticket.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 12:33 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Pubilius Syrus; 4-Zestful; 6-Kershaw

Forecast: We’ll pass this race other than to use three in our rolling exotics without any real preference. Pubilius Syrus is guaranteed a good ground-saving, second flight trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home. A real pro and apparently fond of the Santa Anita main track (three starts, two wins, one second), the ex-classer is a prototype miler, having won four of five career outings at this exact distance. Zestful prefers the front-end going long and if he can inherit the role as the controlling speed he should be hard to catch. A winner of 10 races in 31 career starts, the Ghostzapper gelding can be hard to beat when he’s feeling good. Kershaw, claimed for $62,500 by P. Miller (off-the-charts stats with the first-off-the-claim angle), switches to F. Prat and looks to be the most dangerous of the closing types.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 1:06 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-I Will Not; 3-Bedrock; 7-City Rage

Forecast: Here’s another spread affair, a first-level allowance turf sprint with several legitimate possibilities. I Will Not earned a career top speed figure when a sharp runner-up in a similar affair on the main track last month and should run just as well today over a turf course he’s won on in the past. The Square Eddie Colt has a good stalking trip that will afford him every chance when the pressure is turned on. City Rage, in the frame in each of his five most recent starts, is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and is solid in the speed figure department. F. Prat fits him best, knows him well, and stays aboard. Bedrock overcame trouble to beat a much softer $25,000 claiming field over this course and distance in late February. He’s protected today in a sign of confidence and with clear sailing and some help up front should make some noise in the final furlong.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 1:39 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Today’s Flavor; 4-Laurel River; 5-Bobby Bo; 7-Patron d’Oro

Forecast: This appears to be one of the strongest maiden special weight sprints for 3-year-olds in quite some time. We’ll go four deep with preference on top to Bobby Bo, the 9/5 morning line favorite who has trained like one of the best prospects in the loaded B. Baffert barn. The son of Speightster lands F. Prat and probably will be doing his best work from off the pace, and at this extended sprint trip he should have every opportunity to produce the last run. Stable mate Laurel River was disappointing in his debut last fall when bet down to 6/5, but he acts like a much better type now and it wouldn’t be surprising if the son of Into Mischief turns out to be the quickest of the quick. If he breaks running, he may never look back. Today’s Flavor has done everything required in the morning for the D. O’Neill barn and seems prepared for a monster performance first crack out of the box. We suspect he’ll get outrun early but then take hold late. Patron d’Oro flopped when well-backed in his debut, flashing good speed but then fading late to wind up a weary sixth. We suspect he’s much better than the race shows and is worth giving another look to, especially from his cozy outside draw. He’s 8-1 on the morning line and at that price is a “must use.”
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 2:14 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Going Global; 5-Royal Address; 6-Closing Remarks

Forecast: Royal Address offers good long shot value at 12-1 on the morning line in this year’s edition of the Providencia S.-G3 for 3-year-old fillies over nine furlongs on grass. Below her best when never landing a blow in the Sweet Life S.-G3 in her U.S. debut sprinting in mid-February, the N. Drysdale-trained filly seems certain to improve with that effort behind her and this stretch out in trip. The blinkers off angle is yet another positive factor, and recent workouts indicate the Irish-bred filly is set to produce a significant forward move. Going Global and Closing Remarks finished one-two in the recent China Doll S. over the local lawn and neither should have an issue with today’s extra furlong. There’s a four pound shift in the weights favoring Closing Remarks in addition to a sharp recent half mile workout, so we suspect the daughter of Vronsky will step forward in a big way. ‘Global is hard to fault; she’s won stakes races in both U.S. outings since being imported from the Ireland, retains F. Prat, and owns a wicked turn of foot that should make her hard to contain from the quarter pole home.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 2:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Moraz; 2-Brilliant Cut

Forecast: The Santa Anita Oaks-G2 drew just five entrants, and each has a right to win. You may choose to buy the race for rolling exotic purposes or try to survive and advance by cutting your ticket down to one or two key horses. Let’s try the latter strategy using the inside two runners, Moraz, and Brilliant Cut. The former, a developing daughter of Empire Maker, is strong in the speed figure department and should find herself saving ground in a pace stalking/pressing position. ‘Cut, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, stretches out again and could become the controlling speed if her connections choose. She’s a fit on numbers and gives every indication in her workouts that she’s ready to step forward considerably.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 3:32 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Rip City; 8-Coast of Roan

Forecast: Rip City is thoroughly genuine and consistent and at this nine furlong distance in a race that should produce comfortable early splits he could take control early and never look back. The City Zip gelding was more than five lengths clear of the rest when an excellent runner-up over a mile at this level last month in a race that produced a career top speed figure. Nothing much more will be needed today. Coast of Roan, a three-time winner over the local lawn, could be sent from the gate to make the running, or, more likely, draft in behind Rip City and stalk that one to the head of the lane. The James Street gelding is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli and after a brief freshening should be primed for a major effort.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Dream Shake; 3-Rock Your World; 7-Medina Spirit

Forecast: Medina Spirit has won two of four career starts with both of his defeats courtesy of stable mate Life Is Good, who would have been an odds-on favorite in this year’s Santa Anita Derby-G1 had he been able to remain on the Triple Crown trail. With Life Is Good recuperating from a rear ankle chip, ‘Spirit can resume his winning ways, and from his cozy outside draw in a field without much pace projects to fold into an ideal pace-stalking trip outside and then take control when given his cue. Dream Shake, third in the same race that Medina Spirit just finished second In (the San Felipe S.-G2 won by Life Is Good), continues to train superbly while giving indication that he’s ready to produce another significant forwards move in just his third career start. The son of Twirling Candy should draft into a second flight, ground-saving, stalking position and then make his presence felt from the quarter pole home. Rock Your Worldis an extremely talented son of Candy Ride – he’s perfect in two starts including a sharp score in the Pasadena S. last month – and gives every indication that the longer they go, the better he’ll like it. But what we don’t know is whether he can transfer his superior grass form to today’s dirt surface. He’ll be a legitimate Kentucky Derby candidate if he can, but that’s a big if.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 4:46 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Chrmaine’s Mia

Forecast: Charmaine’s Mia is on the verge of becoming the best middle distance turf performer in the North America among fillies and mares. Since joining the P. D’Amato barn, the five-year-old mare has registered back-to-back victories in graded stakes company, both performances earning speed figures that the others in this field simply can’t match. She continues to train in superb fashion, retains F. Prat, is comfortably drawn inside and can be placed just about anywhere her jockey wants her to be. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the daughter of The Factor is a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 5:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Becca Taylor; 9-Pray for My Owner

Forecast: Becca Taylor is unbeaten in three starts and has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint distance. She picks up F. Prat and appears quite capable of extending her winning streak in a field of state-bred sophomore fillies that doesn’t appear to be particularly strong. Pray for My Owner won at first asking in clever fashion while earning a speed figure that is one point better than Becca Taylor’s career top. Drawn comfortably outside and training well since raced, the daughter of Temple City should be stalking or pressing the pace throughout and be tough to catch if she can manufacture some separation when the field turns for home. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Becca Taylor.
*
*
RACE 11: Post: 5:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Almost a Factor; 4-A New Peace; 9-Nice Ice; 10-Lavender

Forecast: We’ll go four-deep in this competitive turf miler for entry-level allowance fillies and mares over a mile on turf while hoping to get a price home. In her present razor-sharp form, Nice Ice is the one to beat, having won three of her last four starts in strong fashion while using a pace-setting or pressing style. Similar tactics will be employed again and if she can get over from her nine-hole post without having to be sent hard the veteran mare seems likely to fire another winning shot. Lavender is the most dangerous of the closing types. Effective at any distance as long as there is sufficient pace to compliment her style, the J. Sadler-trained mare will get the patient ride she needs from U. Rispoli and will be heard from in the final stages. A New Peace is a progressive mare making just her sixth career start at age five. She’s a first-off-the-claim for S. Knapp (massively good stats with this angle) and, following a recent sharp workout, is protected in a sign of confidence. She’s better than her morning line of 20-1 suggests. Almost a Factor produced a visually pleasing performance when winning over this course in late January and has been kept on edge since with a healthy series of workouts. She can turn it on late and at 10-1 on the morning line is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
*
*
RACE 12: Post: 6:19 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-The Chosen Vron

Forecast: The Chosen Vron is simply better and faster than these – both of his outings were outstanding including when third to unbeaten and major Kentucky Derby-G1 contender Concert Tour in the San Vicente S.-G2 in early February – and with this return to state-bred company the son of Vronsky should have little difficulty regaining his winning form in this year’s edition of the Echo Eddie S. On pure speed figures he’s a standout and likely will go lower than his morning line of 8/5. The E. Kruljac-trained gelding is a logical rolling exotic single.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 4/3/21

April 3, 2021

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

*

Keeneland – Sixth Race – Post time: 3:51 ET
2-Spanish Loveaffair (2-1)

Was miles the best when finishing first in the Herecomesthebride S.-G3 at Gulfstream Park in her most recent appearance but had her number taken down for causing interference approaching the far turn, a mistake on the rider’s part that in no way diminishes this filly’s outstanding performance. If she can maintain a straight course today, the daughter of Karakontie will do to this field what she did to the last one, so at 2-1 on the morning line she’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

*

Keeneland – Tenth Race – Post time: 6:02 ET
5-Kumari (5/2)

Capable on any surface but unbeaten in three starts on the main track, this talented daughter of Munnings has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and should be along in plenty of time after earning a career top speed figure in her recent Oaklawn Park comeback outing. The W. Ward-trained filly shows one prior race over the Keeneland main track – a 15-length romp in her 2-year-old debut at four and one-half furlongs - so we’re expecting the W. Ward-trained filly to be close to a moderate early pace before kicking clear when called upon. We’d love to get close to her morning line of 5/2 on the tote but won’t be surprised if we have to settle for something less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 Cinnte Winnte Really don't think this Euro import is meeting a whole lot in this first North American try, and she may offer a decent price despite looking like a good fit.
#8 Crazy Speighty Seems plenty logical on the stretchout, but I don't totally trust her to transfer that form, and she has the look of a horse who is probably overbet compared to her realistic chances of winning this.
#5 Lady Crocker Willing to overlook the 10f try on good ground last time out, and she's probably in the picture if she gets back to something like the two-back run.
Race Summary Cinnte Winnte is worth a mid-range price look in the opener. Rispoli has made the most of mounts for this barn, and this team might open the day with a mild upset.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Defunded He's the 'other' Baffert in here, but I really liked his maiden win going short that suggested a move around two turns shouldn't be an issue.
#3 Rock Your World I think very highly of this guy, but the dirt is a big question mark. He seems likely enough to handle the main track, and his tactical pace should put him in the kind of spot where at least the trip shouldn't be much of an excuse.
#7 Medina Spirit He's the most likely winner in here, but he's not too flashy and doesn't seem to completely tower over this field. Willing to play against him today.
Race Summary Defunded should be a decent price while meeting an intriguing bunch, and Baffert is 3-for-10 the last few years when stepping up and stretching out like this.

Santa Anita - Race #12
Picks Notes
#2 Letsgetlucky The debut win was pretty solid, but it took him some time to get moving, and he didn't look like a horse who had really figured it all out yet. He might have some upside, and he doesn't need much to land this.
#11 Mister Bold He's another interesting price player from somewhere off the pace, as he has some positional pace but meets faster horses early. He might land a decent kind of first-jump trip.
#5 Found My Ball His best chance would come from settling and making one big run with these, and he's not out of the question with this group.
Race Summary #3 The Chosen Vron is the one to beat in here but probably gets overbet. Letsgetlucky might be able to put things together a bit better with that debut run under his belt, and I think a move forward puts him in the mix with the best in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 DA MAGICIAN Right set-up, right price in speed-laden field.
#3 WATERWAY Also projects ideal trip, use underneath in all gimmicks.
#4 FOO FIGHTER Led long way off claim despite equipment problems.
Race Summary Da Magician got a confidence-building win on the class drop, has plenty of back-class to summon and gets plenty of pace to rally into. Play a 6-ALL exacta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON Worked out good trip, out-kicked the fave, steps up.
#4 KICKIN COWGIRL Won 4 of last 5, starts for new connections on class hike.
#6 MIA CULPA Good fit this level but beaten favorite in latest.
Race Summary Sunday Afternoon flushed out the favorite in the third quarter, tipped off the dueling leaders near the top of the stretch and drew clear through a :57 back half. She can enhance her 18-98 record on the class rise. Play 5-4 and 5-6 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 PRO BEACH Strong brush to command, weakened late, price attached.
#5 REAL WILLEY Steady check-getter, out-kicked by the favorite in latest.
#4 ROCKIN N TALKIN Angled 3-wide for stretch drive, paced evenly to wire.
Race Summary Pro Beach made a bold, second-quarter brush past the eventual winner, but tired on a clear lead in mid-stretch. He draws the rail and is well worth the 8-1 morning-line price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Hog Creek Hustle Has been off since November, when he won an optional claiming race just after not firing in the BC Sprint here; has late punch running this distance and could get the jump on other closers.
#1 Flagstaff Solid third behind C Z Rocket and Whitmore in the Hot Springs last out and finds comfort in stalking; will be tough late.
#2 Hidden Scroll Rallied strongly for an allowance win last time in his first for Cox; always highly regarded and may be able to deliver for the hot stable.
Race Summary Hog Creek Hustle isn't the most consistent runner, but when he brings his best, he's a upper-echelon sprinter; has four decent works for his comeback and might get lost in the wagering.

Keeneland - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Will's Secret Has taken her last three, including the G3 Honeybee, and has become a real pro, having won on the lead as well as from just off the pace. Looks like a top-tier filly.
#5 Malathaat Unbeaten in three, all in New York; took the G2 Demoiselle with a surge in the final furlong. Quality personified.
#3 Simply Ravishing Lost her last two after winning her first three starts; could be rounding back into the form she had as a 2-year-old. Romped in the G1 Alcibiades here and can press throughout.
Race Summary Will's Secret has improved in each start and has worked her way onto this level; has the heart to fight it out.

Keeneland - Race #11
Picks Notes
#9 Keepmeinmind Didn't fire in the G2 Rebel, which was his first once since November; made a quality late rush for third in the G1 BC Juvenile and Diodoro can get him back to running well here.
#4 Essential Quality Rolled in the G3 Southwest in his first since the win in the G1 BC Juvenile; clearly the heavy favorite but can be had if the top choice fires his best.
#3 Highly Motivated Ran on well late in all four starts and can be even a stronger factor as distance is added; would not be a total shock if he's prominent in the closing strides.
Race Summary Keepmeinmymind never really had a shot in his last one but can show significant improvement in his second off the layoff; has a eye-catching late move when he fires.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park



Gulfstream Park - Race 6

$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 6-11)



Claiming $6,250 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 3:46P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * RESIDENT: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance ( within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). SO LONG CHUCK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. STARSHIP APOLLO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DR HARLAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 day s. ESPRESSO CALIENTE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.



8

RESIDENT

9/2


6/1




6

SO LONG CHUCK

20/1


7/1




2

STARSHIP APOLLO

5/2


7/1




1

DR HARLAN

5/1


7/1




10

ESPRESSO CALIENTE

20/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

FAST LOADED

7


7/2

Front-runner

90


84


85.2


71.8


57.3




6

SO LONG CHUCK

6


20/1

Front-runner

96


88


67.5


70.8


59.3




8

RESIDENT

8


9/2

Alternator/Front-runner

94


89


70.4


77.2


64.2




2

STARSHIP APOLLO

2


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

94


87


59.6


74.4


67.9




4

AREYOUTALKINGTOME

4


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

92


89


43.0


69.0


63.5




1

DR HARLAN

1


5/1

Trailer

92


85


51.4


79.2


72.7




5

FLAWLESS MOON

5


8/1

Trailer

83


80


39.8


76.8


61.8




9

YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY

9


15/1

Trailer

93


89


38.9


66.4


56.9




10

ESPRESSO CALIENTE

10


20/1

Alternator/Trailer

96


89


53.2


76.6


68.6




3

GNARLY

3


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

98


96


68.6


63.6


46.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park



Santa Anita Park - Race 9

$1 Exacta /$0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Late Pick 4 (Races 9-10-11-12) $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 9-10-11) $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super High 5



Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 105 • Purse: $200,000 • Post: 4:46P


ROYAL HEROINE S. - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, CLOSED THURSDAY MARCH 25,2021 WITH 16 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $4,000 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. $1,500 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,500 TO START WITH $200,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $120,000 TO THE WINNER, $40,000 TO SECOND, $24,000 TO THIRD, $12,000 TO FOURTH AND $4,000 TO FIFTH. 124 LBS. NON WINNERS OF A GRADE I OR GRADE II STAKE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 3, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. NON WINNERS OF A GRADED STAKES AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 3, 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CHARMAINE'S MIA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dir t or turf) is at least 50. WARREN'S SHOWTIME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DOGTAG: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. TAPWATER: Horse's wi n percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. LAURA'S LIGHT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.



3

CHARMAINE'S MIA

8/5


5/1




4

WARREN'S SHOWTIME

8/1


6/1




1

DOGTAG

8/1


7/1




2

TAPWATER

6/1


9/1




6

LAURA'S LIGHT

6/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

RAYMUNDOS SECRET

5


4/1

Front-runner

102


102


111.8


104.2


96.7




6

LAURA'S LIGHT

6


6/1

Front-runner

100


106


107.8


102.2


92.7




2

TAPWATER

2


6/1

Front-runner

103


101


99.7


98.0


92.5




3

CHARMAINE'S MIA

3


8/5

Stalker

109


110


100.5


99.5


93.5




1

DOGTAG

1


8/1

Stalker

105


103


93.2


97.7


88.7




7

RIDEFORTHECAUSE

7


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

108


101


80.2


96.4


83.9




4

WARREN'S SHOWTIME

4


8/1

Trailer

106


96


96.8


104.8


97.3




8

IPPODAMIA'S GIRL

8


15/1

Trailer

103


94


91.0


98.6


88.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $106000 Class Rating: 108

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $30,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED SINCE JULY 4, 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING SINCE MAY 3, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MARCH 3, 2020 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 NUCLEAR OPTION 4/1




# 2 HURRICANE HIGHWAY 5/1




# 4 SCRUTINIZER 8/1




I've got to go with NUCLEAR OPTION. Keep this gelding in your exotics as Hamilton has given backers some double digit returns. Looks competitive versus this group and ought to be one of the front-runners. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 98 - of his last outing. HURRICANE HIGHWAY - Have to wager on this money-making rider and trainer duo. Contreras has a strong win percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. SCRUTINIZER - Has run well when racing a dirt sprint race. This racer has a terrific winning percentage in dirt sprints.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4 - Post: 1:46pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,450 Class Rating: 77

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 RIDE EM (ML=4/1)


RIDE EM - I like the fact that this first time starter has been working over the same track he'll be making his debut on. Going on Lasix for the 1st time. While a common handicapping angle, it's still quite important when deciding on your contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ON DUTY (ML=2/1), #8 VALEROSO (ML=3/1), #2 LUCKY TOM (ML=6/1),

ON DUTY - Hasn't raced or had any drills since March 3rd. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. VALEROSO - Difficult to play this questionable contender this time. Make him show you something in a sprint race before you wager on him in a race of 6 1/2 furlongs. LUCKY TOM - I don't have a 'use' sensation about this horse in this event.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 RIDE EM is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Aqueduct - Race #2 - Post: 1:18pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 SHE'S AN ALPHA (ML=5/1)
#4 MAGNIFICENT MAGS (ML=6/1)


SHE'S AN ALPHA - This jock and trainer's animals have been generating a profitable return on investment. This filly is in nice physical condition, having run a strong race on Mar 12th, finishing first. MAGNIFICENT MAGS - This rider and trainer have a fantastic winning percent when they combine forces. Last time around the track, finished fifth on a track listed as good at Aqueduct. Should do much better today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 EMPRESS LUCIANA (ML=5/2), #5 MAMA KIN (ML=3/1), #3 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY (ML=7/2),

EMPRESS LUCIANA - Tough to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. MAMA KIN - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance contests of late. Doubtful to see her doing it in today's event either. CHARLOTTE WEBLEY - 7/2 is not enough of a value to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back efforts. Not easy to wager on any horse in a sprint event at 7/2 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last sixty days. Don't feel this runner will make a winning move in today's race. That last fig was common when compared with today's class figure.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MAGNIFICENT MAGS - Analysis shows this filly's last speed number of 59 is as good as any. Don't overlook this filly in your investing.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 SHE'S AN ALPHA is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 92

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $9,800 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (PREFERENCE BY CONDITION




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 FOLLOW THE SIGNS 2/1




# 1 LOST IN MANHATTAN 3/1




# 4 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER 6/1




FOLLOW THE SIGNS looks very good to best this field. His 85 average has this gelding with among the most competitive Equibase Speed Figures in this event. Could beat this field given the 92 speed figure earned in his last outing. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 91, has one of the strongest class advantages in this field. LOST IN MANHATTAN - Vandenberg has one of the most competitive winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. Must be considered in this event if only for the respectable speed rating garnered in the last outing. RICHIESGOTSWAGGER - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Rodriguez have shown sharp results as of late. Should come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the lead recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland



04/03/21, KEE, Race 11, 6.35 ET
04/03/21,KEE,11,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:47:04 STAKES. Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Grade 2. Purse $800,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. By subscription of $200 each on or before February 13, 2021 or $1,000 each on or before March 17, 2021. A Supplementary Nomination of $24,000 each may be made at time of entry (includes entry and starting fees). $4,000 to enter andan additional $4,000 to start, with $800,000 guaranteed, of which $480,000 to the owner of the winner plus 100 Road To The Kentucky Derby Points, $160,000 to second plus 40 Road To The Kentucky Derby Points, $80,000 to third plus 20 Road To The KentuckyDerby Points, $40,000 to fourth plus 10 Road To The Kentucky Derby Points, $24,000 to fifth and $16,000 to be divided equally among sixth through last. Weight: 123 lbs. The maximum number of starters for the Toyota Blue Grass will be limited to fourteennwith two also eligible. In the event that more than fourteen pass the entry box, the fourteen starters will be determined at that time with preference given to graded stakes winners (in order I-II-III), then highest earnings. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. Keeneland will present a trophy cup to the winning owner. A silver julep cup will be presented to the winning trainer and jockey. Closed Wednesday, March 17, 2021 with 151 nominations.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occurs
WPC
ROI


100.0000
4
Essential Quality
3/5
Saez L
Cox Brad H.
JTFELC
172
35.47
1.47/$1


099.3616
3
Highly Motivated
3/1
Castellano J
Brown Chad C.
SW
172
35.47
1.47/$1


097.9790
7
Hush of a Storm
15/1
Gonzalez S
Morey William E.


172
35.47
1.47/$1


097.3940
2
Untreated
10/1
Rosario J
Pletcher Todd A.


172
35.47
1.47/$1


097.1654
5
Rombauer
15/1
Geroux F
McCarthy Michael W.


172
35.47
1.47/$1


096.7187
9
Keepmeinmind
8/1
Cohen D
Diodoro Robertino


141
37.59
1.62/$1


096.0278
1
Hidden Stash
20/1
Bejarano R
Oliver Victoria H.


172
35.47
1.47/$1


095.7162
6
Leblon
50/1
Jimenez A
Lobo Paulo H.


172
35.47
1.47/$1


093.9795
8
Sittin On Go
30/1
Lanerie C J
Romans Dale L.


172
35.47
1.47/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 21.43, ROI 1.33/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.6384
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]LastRaceDistanceIsNotGreaterThanToday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

(Sat) NCAAB Houston
(Sat) NCAAB Gonzaga
(Sat) MLB Cubs
(Sat) MLB Diamondbacks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

563DALLAS -564 WASHINGTON
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the current season.

565CLEVELAND -566 MIAMI
CLEVELAND is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

567MINNESOTA -568 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game in the current season.

569NEW YORK -570 DETROIT
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after 2+ home games in the current season.

571INDIANA -572 SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (7.6 Units) in non-conference games in the current season.

573ORLANDO -574 UTAH
UTAH is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

575MILWAUKEE -576 SACRAMENTO
MILWAUKEE is 27-11 ATS (14.9 Units) as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in the last 3 seasons.

575MILWAUKEE -576 SACRAMENTO
Mike Budenholzer is 27-11 ATS (14.9 Units) in road games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points (Coach of MILWAUKEE)

577OKLAHOMA CITY -578 PORTLAND
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, April 3

Dallas @ Washington
Mavericks (26-21)
— Mavericks are 8-5 SU since All-Star break.
— Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in last six road games.
— Dallas is 2-6 ATS if it played the night before.
— Under is 14-5 in last 19 Dallas games.

Wizards (17-30)
— Wizards lost 10 of their last 13 games SU.
— Wizards are 3-1 ATS in last four home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games

— Home side won last five series games.
— Dallas is 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Washington
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

New York @ Detroit
Knicks (24-25)
— New York lost last three games, scoring 91.7 ppg.
— Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
— Under is 8-1 in New York’s last nine games.

Pistons (14-34)
— Detroit lost five of its last seven games
— Pistons are 8-4 ATS since the All-Star break.
— Over is 4-2 in Detroit’s last six home games.

— New York won/covered last four series games.
— Knicks are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Detroit.
— Three of last four series games stayed under.

Cleveland @ Miami
Cavaliers (17-31)
— Cleveland lost last four games, by 14-2-39-20 points.
— Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
— Last five Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Heat (25-24)
— Miami won its last three games, after an 0-6 skid (3-6 ATS)
— Heat is 2-6 ATS in last eight home games.
— Under is 10-6 in their last sixteen games.

— Heat won nine of last ten series games.
— Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in last six trips to Miami.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia
Timberwolves (12-37)
— Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
— Wolves are 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.
— Minnesota is 4-6-1 ATS if they played night before.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

76ers (33-15)
— 76ers won five of their last seven games.
— Sixers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games.
— Under is 7-3 in Philly’s last ten road games.

— 76ers won/covered last seven series games.
— Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in last five visits to Philly.
— Last three series games stayed under the total.

Indiana @ San Antonio
Pacers (21-26)
— Indiana is 4-8 SU in its last dozen games.
— Pacers are 4-2 ATS in their last six road games.
— Indiana is 5-3-1 ATS if it okayed the night before.
— Under is 3-1 in Indiana’s last four games.

Spurs (24-22)
— San Antonio lost six of its last eight games.
— Spurs are 2-5 ATS in last seven home games.
— Over is 6-3 in Spurs’ last nine games.

— Indiana won four of last five series games.
— Pacers are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to the Alamo.
— Last three series games went over the total.

Orlando @ Utah
Magic (17-31)
— Orlando lost 13 of its last 17 games.
— Magic is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games overall.
— Under is 9-2 in their last 11 road games.

Jazz (37-11)
— Utah won its last seven games overall.
— Jazz is 4-5 ATS in its last nine home games.
— Under is 5-2 in Utah’s last seven games.

— Jazz won eight of last nine series games.
— Orlando is 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Utah.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

Oklahoma City @ Portland
Thunder (20-28)
— Thunder are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
— OKC is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 road games.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine road games.

Trailblazers (29-19)
— Portland won 12 of its last 16 games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Blazers are 3-5 ATS in last eight home games.
— Over is 4-1 in Portland’s last five games.

— OKC won three of last four series games.
— Thunder is 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Portland.
— Over is 5-5 in last ten series games.

Milwaukee @ Sacramento
Bucks (31-17)
— Milwaukee lost three of its last five games.
— Bucks are 3-7 ATS in last ten road games.
— Over is 8-4 in Milwaukee’s last 12 games.

Kings (22-27)
— Sacramento won seven of its last ten games.
— Kings are 3-2 ATS in their last five home games.
— Under is 9-4 in Sacramento’s last 13 games.

— Milwaukee won last nine series games (7-2 ATS)
— Bucks are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Sacramento.
— Last ten series games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, April 3

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas @ Washington
Dallas
Dallas is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

New York @ Detroit
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against New York
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Cleveland @ Miami
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Minnesota @ Philadelphia
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

Indiana @ San Antonio
Indiana
Indiana is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Antonio
Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio
San Antonio is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Indiana
San Antonio is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indiana

Orlando @ Utah
Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games on the road
Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Oklahoma City @ Portland
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games at home
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Milwaukee @ Sacramento
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoop Trends for Saturday April 3
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Minnesota at Philadelphia (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The 76ers are 11-0 ATS (8.45 ppg) when Ben Simmons played fewer than 30 minutes in each of the last 2 games.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cleveland at Miami (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS (-14.50 ppg) as a 8+ point dog after Collin Sexton was their high scorer last game.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cleveland at Miami (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Heat are 11-0-1 OU (9.96 ppg) at home with rest after they had assists on at least 75 percent of their field goals.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: New York at Detroit (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Knicks are 0-12 OU (-14.79 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick after being outscored in the paint by at least four points last game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

801HOUSTON -802 BAYLOR
BAYLOR is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

803UCLA -804 GONZAGA
GONZAGA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the current season.

803UCLA -804 GONZAGA
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 3

Houston (2) vs Baylor (1)
Houston (28-3)
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #328
— Experience: #141
— Continuity: #106
— Houston has the best eFG% defense in country.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Opponents are shooting 29.2% on arc (#11)
— Cougars won their last 11 games, six of them by 24+ points.
— So far in this tournament, Houston has played seeds #15-10-11-12.
— Cougars allowed 55.8 ppg in first three NCAA games.
— Sampson’s Oklahoma team lost 73-64 in the national semifinals in his only Final Four appearance, in 2002.

Baylor (26-2)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #186
— Experience: #85
— Continuity: #31
— Baylor is 9-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
— Bears are shooting 41.1% on the arc (#1)
— Baylor forces turnovers 24.7% of time (#3)
— Baylor gave up 57.8 ppg in its first three tourney wins.
— Bears are grabbing 36.6% of their missed shots (#7)
— This is Baylor’s first Final Four since 1950.

— Since 1987, #1-seeds are SU vs #2-seeds in national semifinal games; favorites went 5-5 ATS in those games, last of which was in 2010.

UCLA (11) vs Gonzaga (1)
UCLA (22-9)
— ranked #15 by KenPom
— Tempo: #338
— Experience: #279
— Continuity: #33
— Two of UCLA’s five tournament wins have been in overtime.
— Bruins have played six overtime games (4-2) this season.
— UCLA is shooting 36.9% on the arc (#44)
— Bruins are 9-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
— Since 2009, UCLA is 13-7 in NCAAs.
— This is Cronin’s 12th NCAA Tournament, his first Final Four.
— Pac-12 teams are 13-3 in this tournament; one of losses was Oregon vs USC.

Gonzaga (30-0)
— ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #6
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #179
— Gonzaga has one win this season by less than 10 points.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Gonzaga’s first four tournament wins were by 43-16-18-19 points.
— Zags are shooting 63.7% inside arc (#1)
— Gonzaga gets 57.4% of its points on 2-point shots (#29)
— Zags beat South Carolina 77-73 in national semis four years ago.
— Gonzaga won its last nine games vs Pac-12 teams; their last loss vs a Pac-12 opponent was to UCLA five years ago.

— Since 1987, double-digit seeds are 0-4 ATS in national semifinals.
— Since 2003, #1-seeds are 7-10 ATS in this round, when not playing another #1-seed.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 3

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston @ Baylor
Houston
No trends to report
Baylor
No trends to report

UCLA @ Gonzaga
UCLA
UCLA is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Gonzaga
Gonzaga
Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing UCLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

951PITTSBURGH -952 CHICAGO CUBS
PITTSBURGH is 460-435 SU (-18.5 Units) in road games against division opponents since 1996.

953ATLANTA -954 PHILADELPHIA
ATLANTA is 11-2 SU (8.8 Units) in road games after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

957ST LOUIS -958 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 22-8 SU (13.2 Units) after allowing 8 runs or more in the last 3 seasons.

959LA DODGERS -960 COLORADO
COLORADO is 718-771 SU (-130.1 Units) in home games when the total is 10 or higher since 1996.

961ARIZONA -962 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 19-10 SU (8 Units) in home games against left-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

963TORONTO -964 NY YANKEES
TORONTO is 448-428 SU (-22.8 Units) in road games after a win since 1996.

965CLEVELAND -966 DETROIT
DETROIT is 25-52 SU (-32.2 Units) in home games when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

967BALTIMORE -968 BOSTON
BOSTON is 41-68 SU (-33.8 Units) in home games in all games in the last 3 seasons.

969TEXAS -970 KANSAS CITY
TEXAS are 2-10 SU (-9 Units) in road games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs in the last 3 seasons.

971HOUSTON -972 OAKLAND
HOUSTON is 27-9 SU (17.1 Units) when playing with a day off in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, April 3

Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, but we’ll do what we can. Once the season gets rolling, we’ll be posting what I think is the most relevant information for each game.

NL games
Pirates (1-0) @ Cubs (0-1)
TAnderson is 2-0, 4.05 in three starts vs Chicago; he is 1-0, 2.57 in one start at Wrigley.

Arrieta is 12-6, 2.93 in 23 career starts vs Pittsburgh.

Braves (0-1) @ Phillies (1-0)
Morton is 2-3, 6.17 in seven starts vs Philly; he is 2-2, 4.23 in five starts here.

Wheeler is 6-5, 3.79 in 16 starts vs Atlanta.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Reds (0-1)
Wainwright is 10-13, 5.12 in 34 games (29 starts) vs Cincinnati; he is 7-5, 4.96 in 17 starts here.

Mahle is 1-3, 5.45 in eight starts vs St Louis.

Dodgers (1-1) @ Rockies (1-1)
Buehler is 5-2, 4.07 in 16 games (12 starts) vs Colorado, 1-1, 5.12 in seven games (5 starts) at Coors Field.

Gray is 5-6, 4.62 in 15 starts vs LA.

Diamondbacks (0-2) @ Padres (2-0)
Smith is 2-1, 2.01 in four starts vs San Diego; he is 1-1, 2.25 in two starts at Petco.

Musgrove is 1-1, 3.70 in five games (4 starts) vs Arizona.

AL games
Orioles (1-0) @ Red Sox (0-1)
Harvey threw six shutout innings in his only career start vs Boston.

Houck hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

Blue Jays (1-0) @ Bronx (0-1)
Stripling is 0-2, 4.50 in three appearances vs New York, all in relief (10 IP).

Kluber is 2-3, 4.46 in six starts vs Toronto.

Indians (0-1) @ Tigers (1-0)
Plesac is 2-0, 0.51 in three starts against the Tigers, 1-0, 1.00 in one start at Detroit.

Teheran is 0-1, 9.64 in one start vs Cleveland.

Rangers (0-1) @ Royals (1-0)
Arihara is making his first MLB start.

Minor is 0-2, 6.30 in four games (1 start) vs Texas.

White Sox (1-1) @ Angels (1-1)
Lynn is 4-2, 3.58 in nine starts against the Angels, 0-2, 5.11 in four starts at Anaheim.

Cobb is 0-3, 13.89 in three starts vs Chicago.

Astros (2-0) @ A’s (0-2)
McCullers is 5-2, 4.04 in nine starts vs Oakland, 2-0, 4.96 in three starts at the Coliseum.

Irwin is making his Oakland debut; he hasn’t pitched against Houston.

Interleague games
Rays (2-0) @ Marlins (0-2)
Hill is 2-1, 4.67 in four games (three starts) against the Marlins, 2-0, 0.75 in two starts at Miami.

Hernandez allowed five runs in six IP in three games (1 start) vs Tampa Bay.

Twins (0-1) @ Brewers (1-0)
Berrios is 1-1, 2.08 in two starts vs Milwaukee, 0-1, 3.86 in one start at Miller Park.

Burnes is 1-0, 1.50 in two games (1 start) vs Minnesota.

Giants (1-1) @ Mariners (1-1)
Webb allowed five runs in five IP in his one start vs Seattle.

Flexen has never pitched against San Francisco.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, April 3

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto @ NY Yankees
Toronto
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home

Cleveland @ Detroit
Cleveland
Cleveland is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Cleveland is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games

Texas @ Kansas City
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Texas's last 22 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

NY Mets @ Washington
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Houston @ Oakland
Houston
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home

St. Louis @ Cincinnati
St. Louis
St. Louis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home

Tampa Bay @ Miami
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Tampa Bay is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

Minnesota @ Milwaukee
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

LA Dodgers @ Colorado
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games
Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Arizona @ San Diego
Arizona
Arizona is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
San Diego
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Chi White Sox @ LA Angels
Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 8 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
LA Angels is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

San Francisco @ Seattle
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1PITTSBURGH -2 BOSTON
PITTSBURGH is 19-7 ATS (11.4 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the current season.

3DETROIT -4 TAMPA BAY
DETROIT is 6-41 ATS (-30.4 Units) in road games against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game over the last 2 seasons.

5CHICAGO -6 NASHVILLE
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (5.8 Units) in road games playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.

7COLUMBUS -8 FLORIDA
COLUMBUS are 2-9 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games against horrible power play killing teams-opp score on >19% of chances in the current season.

9OTTAWA -10 MONTREAL
MONTREAL is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

11PHILADELPHIA -12 NY ISLANDERS
PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) off a blowout loss by 3 goals or more to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

13NY RANGERS -14 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 2-19 ATS (-16.4 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the current season.

15DALLAS -16 CAROLINA
DALLAS are 4-18 ATS (-17.7 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the current season.

17ST LOUIS -18 COLORADO
ST LOUIS are 13-17 ATS (-13.3 Units) against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

19MINNESOTA -20 VEGAS
VEGAS are 46-17 ATS (18 Units) in home games against good starting goalies - saving >= 91.5% of shots against since 1996.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, April 3

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pittsburgh @ Boston
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Boston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Tampa Bay is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games when playing Detroit

Chicago @ Nashville
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Nashville is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

NY Rangers @ Buffalo
NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Rangers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing NY Rangers

Dallas @ Carolina
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Columbus @ Florida
Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Columbus's last 9 games
Florida
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games

Philadelphia @ NY Islanders
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 13 games
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Islanders is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

Ottawa @ Montreal
Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Ottawa's last 10 games when playing Montreal
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Montreal's last 10 games when playing Ottawa
Montreal is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Ottawa

St. Louis @ Colorado
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
Colorado
Colorado is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Colorado is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

Minnesota @ Vegas
Minnesota
Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Vegas
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Vegas
Vegas
Vegas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Vegas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games

San Jose @ Los Angeles
San Jose
San Jose is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Jose
Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Apr 03 '21, 4:05 PM in 33m
MLB | ATL vs PHI
Play on: UNDER 8 +101

FREE PICK - Phillies/Braves UNDER 8
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 953/954
I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Braves. These two offenses didn't give their fans much to cheer about in the opener, as the two combined for just 5 runs in the Braves 3-2 win in 10 innings.
I think we are going to see more of the same in the second game of the series. I like both starters that are going with the Braves sending out Charlie Morton and the Phillies turning to Zach Wheeler.
Morton was stellar in spring ball, as he didn't allow a run in 10 1/3 innings of work. Wheeler had a little bit tougher go of it, but I love how he ended Spring Training, throwing 3 scoreless innings against the Yankees. Wheeler also allowed just 3 runs over 12 2/3 innings of work in two starts against the Braves last year.
You also got to factor in the fact that the ball just doesn't figure to carry with temps only expected to be in the low 50s. Give me the UNDER 8!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule Apr 03 '21, 4:07 PM in 35m
MLB | Astros vs A's
Play on: A's +1½ -139 at pinnacle

This is a free play on Oakland +1.5.
The Athletics have lost the first two games of this home series versus Houston, but I like their chances in Game 3.
27 year old Cole Irvin will toe the slab for Oakland, and he has just three career starts. He sure looked good this spring, going 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA in five appearances. He struck out 18 batters in 18 innings pitched, walking three and allowing 10 hits.
The Astros hand the ball to Lance McCullers, who hasn't fooled the Athletics. Oakland's lineup has hit .324 over a combined 88 at bats against McCullers.
The Athletics are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
GL,
Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover Apr 03 '21, 4:10 PM in 38m
MLB | Cardinals vs Reds
Play on: Cardinals +113 at linepros

Eugenio Suarez played shortstop against the Cardinals this past Thursday. Shortstop lost. Suarez is an excellent power hitter. His 98 homers the past three years entering this season is proof of that. What Suarez isn't is a slick fielder. The Reds have him playing shortstop this season after he's played third base for the past five seasons. Shortstop is not a position you can get away with a bad fielder. The Cardinals, aided by two errors from Suarez, drilled the Reds and Luis Castillo, 11-6, in the series opener on Thursday. Now the Reds drop down in pitching class from Castillo to Tyler Mahle, who only is this high in the rotation because Sonny Gray is out with back spasms. I have my doubts if Mahle is even backend rotation material. He certainly doesn't figure to get much defensive help from the left side of his infield. Mahle is 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis. Adam Wainwright will be going for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 39 and well past his prime. But he's still crafty. Wainwright made 10 starts in 2020 and has his finest season in five years with a 3.15 ERA. Wainwright pitched well in spring training, too, with a 2.42 ERA in six games. Maybe Wainwright will show his advanced age as the season progresses, but right now he's fresh and I like him better than Mahle. So getting the Cardinals as an underdog is a value play in my book.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Apr 03 '21, 6:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Rays vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins +105 at Mirage

Free Play on Marlins +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan Apr 03 '21, 7:08 PM in 3h
NHL | Blue Jackets vs Panthers
Play on: Panthers -145 at linepros

Florida Panthers -145
Florida is worth a flyer. They take on a Blue Jackets team that has struggled this season. Columbus comes in 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Florida has a far better attack and should be able to handle them at home.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* Free NHL ML Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Apr 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Twins vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -125 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Brewers -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Apr 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Mavs vs Wizards
Play on: Wizards +6½ -110 at Draft Kings

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Washington Wizards +6.5
The Dallas Mavericks have won and covered three straight games going into this game with Washington tonight. I think it's time to go against them now as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 5th straight road game and in their 6th different city in 9 days. They definitely could choose to rest either one or both of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis tonight. There's a decent chance the Wizards get Bradley Beal back from injury tonight. And the Wizards have been game when playing some of the better teams in the NBA, while losing to some of the worst teams as they have a tendency to play to their level of competition. The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when playing the second of a back-to-back. Give me the Wizards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Apr 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Twins vs Brewers
Play on: Twins +114 at BetCris

1* Free Pick on Twins +114

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Apr 03 '21, 8:10 PM in 4h
NBA | Wolves vs 76ers
Play on: 76ers -11 -110 at Draft Kings

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Philadelphia 76ers -11
The Philadelphia 76ers have continued to play well even without Joel Embiid. They are 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They have only lost to the cream of the crop in the Bucks, Clippers and Nuggets during this stretch. And there's a chance they get Embiid back tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.
Either way, they should handle the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are in a very tough spot tonight. The Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-120 loss in Memphis last night. They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days here and in their 4th different city in 6 days. They simply won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.
The Timberwolves are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days' rest. Philadelphia is 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 home games. Minnesota is 1-11 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the 76ers Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson Apr 03 '21, 8:10 PM in 4h
NBA | Knicks vs Pistons
Play on: Knicks -1½ -108 at pinnacle

14-1 93% last 15 FREE plays!
Rocketman Sports FREE NBA play Saturday 4-3-21
New York @ Detroit (8:10 PM EST)
Play On: New York -1 1/2
The New York Knicks travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons on Saturday night. New York is 24-25 SU overall this year while Detroit comes in with a 14-34 SU overall record on the season. Detroit is 0-9 SU and 1-6 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more. New York is 4-1 ATS last 5 games after a SU loss of 10 points or more. New York is 4-1 ATS last 5 road games. New York is 9-3-1 ATS last 13 games after a ATS loss. New York is 9-3 ATS last 12 games after a SU loss. New York is 12-4 ATS last 16 games as a favorite. Detroit is 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games after a SU win. Detroit is 4-14-3 ATS last 21 games after a SU win of 10 points or more. New York is 4-0 ATS overall vs Detroit past 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on New York tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Apr 03 '21, 8:40 PM in 5h
MLB | ARI vs SDG
Play on: UNDER 8½ +100

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Diamondbacks/Padres under 8½ +100