Wednesday 4/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's Kentucky Derby Workout Analysis/Power Rankings April 28, 2021
(Listed in order based on the grades assigned to each workout)
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ROCK YOUR WORLD - April 24, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/rock-your-world-outside-and-best-chance-worked-5-furlongs-at-santa-anita-park-on-april-24th-2021/)

Broke off about a half-length outside behind Best Chance (5f, 1:00h) and was cruising to the top before being given his cue and leaving his workmate easily with powerful long strides under light hand coaxing, then continued out to the 7/8 pole while full of run, splits on our watches of :24 flat, :35.2 and :59.2 to the wire and then out a full six furlongs in 1:11.3 without really taking a deep breath. This is the best we have seen him work; prior to his Santa Anita Derby win the son of Candy Ride needed to be pushed and shoved on to earn fast clocking but now he is doing it on his own. Galloped out like he will relish 10 furlongs and farther. GRADE: A
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DYNAMIC ONE – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :47.4b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/dynamic-one-outside-and-prime-factor-worked-4-furlongs-in-47-80-at-churchill-downs-on-april-23rd-2021/)

In blinkers, in company breaking off a length behind outside Prime Factor (same time) for T. Pletcher, engaged that one entering the lane and was breezing through the lane to finish stride-for-stride before being asked to gallop out stronger than ‘Factor to the six furlong pole and did so in good style while appearing sharp and on edge. Improving with experience and maturity and appears set to produce another forward move. GRADE: B+
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HELIUM – April 23, 2011, Churchill Downs, 4f, :49.4b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/helium-outside-worked-4-furlongs-in-49-80-at-churchill-downs-on-april-23rd-2021/)

Broke off a length behind workmate, was breezing in effortless fashion while taking control into the lane and was just cruising to the wire before galloping out without taking a deep breath and appearing sharp and content. Undefeated in three career starts and was pounds best (very wide throughout) in the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his only 2021 outing six weeks ago. GRADE: B+
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SAINTHOOD – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/sainthood-(outside)-and-known-agenda-worked-5-furlongs-in-1/sainthood-outside-and-known-agenda-worked-5-furlongs-in-101-00-at-churchill-downs-on-april-23rd-2021/)

In company outside Known Agenda (same time) for T. Pletcher and may have been a tad the best while appearing to be going the easier of the two most of the way without ever being turned loose (workmate under mild coaxing at the head of the lane to remain even), with the pair galloping out stride-for-stride to the six furlong pole. Had plenty throughout, certainly handled the dirt track just fine and appears to have come on nicely since his last race in mid-March. GRADE: B+
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HOT ROD CHARLIE – April 24, 2021, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.3h

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/hot-rod-charlie-outside-and-chasing-fame-worked-at-santa-anita-park-on-april-24th-2021/)

In blinkers, in company outside Chasing Fame (5f, 1:01.3h), breaking off a couple of lengths behind workmate at the five furlong pole and stalking that one in hand to the head of the lane before responding without being asked to roll on by in a visually pleasing manner, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and 1:00.4 (to the wire) and then out to 7/8 pole in 1:13.2 on our watches (eased up to the six furlong pole in 1:27.2). Not scintillating from a time standpoint but did just what was asked of him and was nice and relaxed and happy throughout. GRADE: B
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MANDOLOUN – April 17, 2021, Churchill Downs, 6f, 1:11.2b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/mandaloun-outside-and-colonel-bowman-worked-6-furlongs-at-churchill-downs-on-april-17th-2021/)

In blinkers, team drill outside Colonel Bowman (6f, 1:11.4b) for B. Cox, breaking off a length behind while being hard held, joining his company midway on the turn, hitting the wire almost a length in front without being asked (workmate under urging) and then being put to some pressure to finish out the drill to 7/8 pole and then gallop out an extra furlong. Did well enough, strikes us as a one-paced grinding type without a true turn of foot. GRADE: B
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BOURBONIC – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :49.4b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/bourbonic-worked-4-furlongs-in-49-60-at-churchill-downs-on-april-23rd-2021/)

In blinkers, worked alone and looked fine without being asked, steady splits before galloping out with some energy all the way around to the half mile pole, doing what was asked of him. Plenty fit, maintains his form, the farther the better for this long-winded son of Bernardini. GRADE: B
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ESSENTIAL QUALITY - April 17, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, :59.3b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/essential-quality-outside-and-spa-city-worked-5-furlongs-at-churchill-downs-on-april-17th-2021/)

In blinkers, in company outside Spa City (5f, :59.4b) while in hand to the top of the lane and then was under mild coaxing to finish head-and-head at the wire (workmate lightly ridden as well) but never could get by ‘City galloping out despite being ridden as bit with workmate slightly best by almost one length galloping out to the six furlong pole. We cannot knock the drill – the clocking was good, and the B. Cox-trained colt was moving well - but we were hoping to see a bit more from the Kentucky Derby favorite. GRADE: B
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KNOWN AGENDA – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/sainthood-(outside)-and-known-agenda-worked-5-furlongs-in-1/sainthood-outside-and-known-agenda-worked-5-furlongs-in-101-00-at-churchill-downs-on-april-23rd-2021/)

In blinkers, in company inside Sainthood (same time), went off in hand but was about a half-length back at the top before being asked a bit through the lane (workmate breezing) and “re-rallied” to wind up head-and-head at the wire, then galloped out stride-for-stride, decent drill though it appeared workmate could have opened up a bit through the lane if allowed to. Curlin colt is not a speed type, and this type of drill probably does not cast him in his best light; we will classify it as a decent drill but not much better than that. GRADE: B
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MEDINA SPIRT – April 22, 2021, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/medina-spirit-outside-and-azul-coast-worked-6-furlongs-at-santa-anita-park-on-april-22nd-2021/)

In company outside Azul Coast (6f, 1:12.1h) for B. Baffert and went stride-for-stride with ‘Coast to the head of the lane (neither being asked) before drawing clear approaching the wire to be a little more than a length in front that point (mostly on his own), then drew clear while being ridden out to 7/8 pole while appearing to be leaning in just a tad, splits of :23.3, :35.3, 1:00 flat and 1:12.2 on our watches, galloping out six furlong pole in 1:26.3 well clear of workmate while perhaps losing his focus just a bit. Solid final time but not particularly noteworthy from a visual standpoint. Looks about the same, no better, no worse. GRADE: B
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SOUP AND SANDWICH – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :50b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/soup-and-sandwich/soup-and-sandwich-outside-and-peace-achieved-worked-4-furlongs-at-churchill-downs-on-april-23rd-2021/)

In company outside Peace Achieved (4f, :50.3b) for M. Casse, was extremely rank approaching the pole while attempting to break off a couple of lengths behind workmate, dropped his head and relaxed a bit once in motion but remained under a tight hold to the top of the lane and then was pulling hard while taking control through the stretch before drawing clear under wraps and remaining somewhat unsettled on the gallop out. Was too keen for our liking early on and may be the type that will resent rating tactics; probably be happiest if simply allowed to bowl along. Previous drill (April 17) was much smoother and more relaxed. GRADE: B-
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O BESOS – April 22, 201, Churchill Downs, 4f, :48b

See Workout (https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/o-besos-worked-4-furlongs-in-48-00-at-churchill-downs-on-april-22nd-2021/)

In blinkers in solo drill, under a hold from the three furlong pole while wanting to get out a bit entering the lane, then was put to pressure while passing the wire and then continuing out to the six furlong pole, never really leveling and not producing the desired response. Perhaps needs company; hard to endorse enthusiastically based on this move. GRADE: C

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Our Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. On the eve of the Kentucky Derby, here is a listing of our Elite-8.
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1 – ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($546,600). Derby points: 100
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, 10F Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in three starts, most recently in his first try on dirt when registering a gate-to-wire victory in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Medina Spirit) while setting fast fractions and then repelling all challenges to drew clear in the final furlong with complete authority (and galloping out far in front); earned a career top 100 Beyer speed figure in his latest outing (tops among intended Kentucky Derby starters); previous two wins were accomplished on grass, the listed 8F Pasadena S. in February in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) and a maiden over 6F on grass on New Year’s Day (by one and three-quarter lengths while appearing to toy with his opposition); pedigree suggests he’ll thrive over a classic distance and farther; has proven to be effective on the lead or from a stalking position though he’s yet to experience dirt kickback; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 at least among the first three favorites; has never been a particularly willing performer in the morning but his most recent workout April 17 (5f, :59.3h) was his best yet; still a bit green in the p.m. (switched leads twice in the stretch in his most recent start) but has the kind of potential that could reach a championship level.
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2 – ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 5-5-0-0 ($2,265,144). Derby points: 140
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 24, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.2b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; 2020 Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old enters the Kentucky Derby-G1 with a perfect record in five starts, most recently when fully extended to win the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 (by a neck from Highly Motivated) while enjoying a trouble-free pace-stalking trip; had reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior); completed his 2-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Keeneland in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie and before that with a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 (from Keepmeinmind); speed figures have risen with every start but without a significant leap and with a career top Beyer number of a good-but-not-great 97; proven so far to be thoroughly genuine and versatile (though not particularly willing in morning workouts) while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and will be the deserving favorite in the Kentucky Derby-G1.
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3 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience and distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was categorized early in his career as a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
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4 – HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 24, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.3h

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register a two length score from Midnight Bourbon while establishing a new track record (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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5 – HELIUM (M. Casse) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 4f, 49.4b

The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and then the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the front speed and also from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and will have two months in between races while training up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field than actually providing him with the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.
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6 – MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 5-2-3-0 ($315,200). Derby points: 74
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F, Kentucky Dereby-G1
Latest workout: April 22, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from the first crop of a multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); was no match as the 4/5 favorite to Rock Your World when second (beaten four and one-quarter lengths) in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April, enjoying an ideal pace-stalking trip outside but then proving unable to quicken when the pressure was turned on at the head of the lane; previously had finished a distant second to unbeaten Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; before that displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; speed figures are decent but have stagnated in recent outings; pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance but though he’s clearly a reliable and consistent sort his lack of progression and his one-paced style provide concern that he may have reached his ceiling.
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7 – HIGHLY MOTIVATED (C. Brown) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($320,050). Derby points: 50
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workoutt: April 24, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.4b

The Skinny: $240K though the ring as a weanling (retained by his breeder); first foal, dam a Canadian-bred sprint SW at 3; in the frame in all five career starts and earned a career top speed figure in his most recent start in early April when second (was five and one-half lengths clear of the rest) as the controlling speed in the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 by a neck to Essential Quality, giving way grudgingly close home but with while benefitting from a race flow that may have flattered the performance; previously appeared a tad rusty when third (by a length and three-quarters to Weyburn) when making his seasonal bow in the 8F Gotham S-G3 the previous month; displayed plenty of potential when easily capturing the listed 6.5F Nyquist S. on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland in November; pedigree suggests a classic distance will be stretching his limit; due to the projected pace flow may have to alter tactics in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that will prevent the same type of soft trip in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that he enjoyed in the Blue Grass S.-G2.
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8 – SOUP AND SANDWICH (M. Casse) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0 ($203,875). Derby points: 40
Last start: March 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 4f, :50b

The skinny: Live Oak Stud homebred; Monmouth Park allowance-winning dam traces to a solid midwestern family that includes Til Forbid (Arlington Oaks-G3, etc.); won his first two career starts in excellent fashion, a state-bred 6.5F Gulfstream Park maiden by seven and one-quarter lengths and then a middle distance allowance event at Tampa Bay Downs by two and three-quarter lengths, both victories accomplished utilizing pace pressing/stalking tactics; took on much tougher competition in his most recent outing in the 9F Florida Derbny-G1 and acquitted himself quite well when establishing the pace and then staying on gamely to be second (by two and three-quarter lengths to Known Agenda) while three lengths clear of the rest; a genuine sort but is suspect at a classic distance; will need to improve again to make his mark in the spring classics but with just three career starts has room to for further development.
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Also eligible: Dynamic One (T. Pletcher); Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Super Stock (S. Asmussen); O Besos (G. Foley); Bourbonic (T. Pletcher); Mandaloun (B. Cox); Like the King (W. Ward); Sainthood (T. Pletcher); King Fury (K. McPeek); Hidden Stash (V. Oliver); Brooklyn Strong (D. Velasquez); Keepmeinmind (R. Diodoro).

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Golden Gate Stats: 'A'-Team Riding Stars April 27, 2021
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

Headlines

2021 El Camino Real Derby winner Rombauer will bypass the Kentucky Derby and train up to the May 15 Preakness Stakes, where he earned an automatic berth via his victory at Golden Gate … The Rainbow 6 carryover will be $8,736 when racing resumes Thursday for a 4-day week … Congratulations to Grade 3 San Francisco Mile winner Whisper Not, who gave trainer Richard Baltas a second straight winner in GGF’s signature grass races … On-track admission for GGF is being sold exclusively online at Goldengatefields.com. Limited attendance is available each racing day.

Stronach 5

The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 23% winners. The factor Best Speed Distance showed a $31.60 profit if you bet $2 win on each top choice in that category for the week.

Best Speed Distance
Trainer Current Year
Last Purse

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Frank Alvarado had an outstanding 11: 5-1-1 mark, including victories for 4 different barns (doubling up with Steve Specht). Four of the winners came at 5-2 or less odds.

-- Jockey Armando Ayuso had a 9: 2-1-3 week, ringing the register with $18 and $27 victories. He also had a 15-1 hit the board.

-- Jockey Evin Roman was a reliable 6: 3-1-2 aboard favorites. His 6-win week topped the riders and he was 10-24 in the exacta.

-- Trainer Isidro Tamayo put up numbers for the second straight week. He was 10: 4-2-1 on top of a 10: 3-0-2 record last week. His runners continue to excel in main track sprints.

-- Trainer Leonard Power made the most of limited starts at 4: 2-1-0, including $11 and $62 dandies, the latter Gypsy Spirit’s turf sprint stakes victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pimlico Stats: Vera Going Very Well April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

The May 15 Preakness is now just 2+ weeks away with new shooters aiming for Old Hilltop like Rebel winner Concert Tour, El Camino Real Derby champ Rombauer, Crowded Trade and Japanese intrigue from France Go De Ina … The April 24 Federico Tesio Stakes winner The Reds is not Triple Crown nominated, but could be supplemented to the Preakness, pending a decision by his connections … Miss Leslie earned an automatic berth into the Black-Eyed Susan with her upset victory in the April 24 Weber City Miss Stakes … Visit Preakness.com for ticketing information for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, including a limited Preakness Live in the infield … Forest Boyce has returned to the jockey colony after nearly 2 months on the sidelines from a shoulder injury.

Stronach 5

The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 39% wins. The 1/ST BET app’s AI handicapping picked 28% winners at Pimlico last week and showed a flat-bet profit.

Trainer Current Year
Jockey 1 Year Win %
Speed Last Race

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Miguel Vera came out firing at 6: 4-0-0, scoring with a pair of favorites and an $11 topper. JD Acosta rode the entire 6-pack for Vera.

-- Trainer Keiron Magee’s runners were 10: 3-3-0. Winners paid $4, $9 and $11 and all 6 exacta finishers were ridden by Carol Cedeno.

-- Trainer Dale Bennett was a rock-solid 5: 2-1-1, posting $8 and $11 victories teamed with Yomar Ortiz. The duo also had a 5-1 runner-up.

-- Trainer John Salzman Jr. won with both of his starters, $8 and $13 winners in 6-furlong sprints with Charlie Marquez in the saddle.

-- Jockey Carol Cedeno had a big 14: 5-4-0 record, going 8: 3-3-0 teamed with trainer Keiron Magee.

-- Jockey JD Acosta had one of his best weeks of the year at 19: 6-1-1. A quartet of those wins came for Miguel Vera’s barn.

-- Favorites were just 12-41 (29%) to open the new meet as the public settles in.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GP Stats: Pletcher, Casse Holdovers Holding Up April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

Thursday’s Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover will be $207,348 heading into the 4-day racing week ... Feature races Saturday will be the Big Drama and Honey Ryder Stakes on dirt and turf, respectively … Curlin Florida Derby 1-2 finishers Known Agenda and Soup and Sandwich headline the local contingent for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Sainthood and Dynamic would ascended from the Championship Meet maiden ranks and also are in the Louisville lineup … Gulfstream will host onsite contestants for Saturday’s $3,000 Derby Day Challenge handicapping contest.

Stronach 5

The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 35% or greater win rate and showing a flat-bet profit of at least $20.60.

Win %
Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
Avg. Last 3 Speed

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Gilberto Zerpa dialed in at 8: 4-3-0, but 7 of the 8 starters were bet to 5-2 or less. The trio of winners maxed out at 7-5 odds. Zerpa and jockey Edgard Zayas were 3: 2-1-0 together.

-- Trainer Victor Barboza was 3: 2-0-0, winning both in 5-1/2 furlong dirt dashes. He scored at $5 and $19 with those. After going 0-12 to start April, Barboza runners are 5: 3-1-0 since April 18.

-- Trainers Todd Pletcher (7: 2-1-1) and Mark Casse (9: 2-1-2) fared well with the runners they’ve left behind after much of their operations have headed north.

-- Jockey Joe Bravo was 12: 3-1-4 in limited strikes. Winners paid $3, $9 and $10, while he added 7-1 and 10-1 shots in the money. All 3 wins were on the grass.

-- Jockey Miguel Vasquez bested the colony with 7 wins, won at 22%, and posted a strong $1.57 ROI for every $1 bet. He won for 6 different trainers, doubling up with Mark Casse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SA Stats: Sadler Peaking as Derby Week Arrives April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Santa Anita Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Southern California. And be sure to support “The Great Race Place” by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Santa Anita Park.

Headlines

The Friday-Sunday racing week features Saturday’s Grade 3 Senorita for 3-year-old turf fillies … A $186,141 Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover kicks off the week (plus a $9,880 Super High 5 jackpot carryover) … Santa Anita Derby 1-2 finishers Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, along with Lewis runner-up Hot Rod Charlie headline the Santa Anita contingent for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby … Santa Anita Derby third Dream Shake will contest the Pat Day Mile at Churchill … Leading jockeys Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli will be out of town riding at Churchill Downs this weekend … Santa Anita will host onsite contestants for Saturday’s $3,000 Derby Day Challenge handicapping contest.

Stronach 5

The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Santa Anita Park last week, each winning at a 20% or greater win rate. Speed Last Race was a top-3 factor for the third straight week and Last Purse for a second straight week.

Speed Last Race
ITM (In The Money) %
Last Purse

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer John Sadler comes off a 6: 2-1-2 week in which he debuted Flightline, a potential star. Winners paid $3 and $7, but he had a 7-1 runner-up in the mix. His barn is peaking at the right time with Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World among the Kentucky Derby favorites.

-- Trainer Ray Bell was 3: 2-0-0, sending out $6 and $14 winners on dirt and turf. The under-the-radar barn is 11: 5-1-1 at SA since February 6.

-- Trainer Mike Puype posted a 6: 2-0-2 mark with winners well-backed at $4 and $8, but also with a 14-1 shot in the money. The barn is a strong 20: 7-2-2 at SA since March 20 with a $1.28 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Jockey Kent Desormeaux had one of his best weeks in a long time, going 12: 4-1-0, including 3-for-5 on turf. With top riders absent this weekend, he could be in position for a strong showing.

-- Favorites underperformed at 4-for-15 on the main track and are hitting only 29% over the past 2 weeks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Charles Town - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#7 DoobieDoobieDoobie
He makes his local debut, but he has a couple of decent running lines this year at Laurel, and he should get a great spying trip from the outside.


#1 Rossie Val
He qualifies for this spot because his wins have come against cheaper claiming company, and on form he looks tough. That said, this layoff is approaching two years, and I wouldn't be too confident that he'll come back as sharp as he left.


#4 Another Victory
Finisher is a good fit with these, but he's probably going to be a bit overbet. Third start off the layoff offers some potential for another step forward.


Race Summary
Doobiedoobiedoobie may offer a fair price in here with the other listed pair likely to take some cash, and he looks like the right one to use to try to beat a potentially vulnerable comebacker.


Charles Town - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#1 Needacarcalllouie
She blew a big lead in the lane last time around, but she should get another forward trip here in a spot without a ton of other early pace.


#7 Lightfoot Miss
She changes barns and moves in with the locals for a barn that has hit with both of their starters at the meet. I like that she shows up protected on a weaker circuit, and she owns some races that look competitive with these.


#8 Lookin Back
She adds Lasix for the first run since December, and she's quick enough to be right up on the splits with the top choice early. Not out of the question.


Race Summary
Needacarcalllouie improved when trying a two-turn local trip, and he'd be plenty attractive at something like the 4/1 ML offering.


Charles Town - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Moss Boss
Tracking pace should be able to get another good trip from close range, and his form looks quite a bit better if you just isolate his local one-turn races. Price chance.


#7 Be Be Bop
He is so reliable at this one-turn trip, building a 6:5-0-0 record dashing locally, and he draws perfectly to get another pace pressing trip.


#3 Command the Cat
He has more than two lengths to turn on the chalk from their last meeting, and that guy is going to get a big jump on him again tonight.


Race Summary
Moss Boss cleared the maiden ranks last out with a pretty convincing press and pounce score -- if he can step forward again tonight, he's not far off what it would take to have a run at Be Be Bop.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 UNDERTAKER
Good try against better, starts fresh, seeks 42nd win.


#1 ALTA SHELBY N
Couldn't sustain middle move as record fell to 1-29 since 2020.


#2 DEERFIELD BEACH
Didn't duplicate runner-up finish from two starts back.


Race Summary
Undertaker bid 3-wide around dead cover at the 3/4-mile mark, was second behind the 3-to-5, three-peat winner at the top of the stretch and finished evenly. He starts fresh and figures tough on the class drop. Play a 5-1-ALL trifecta.


Yonkers - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#4 P C FOREIGN AFFAIR
Must stay flat, could be forward factor if he does.


#2 MADHATTER BLUECHIP
Controlled pace in popular victory at Monticello, steps up.


#1 KATKIN AND COKE
Failed to capitalize on live cover in last three starts, moves inside.


Race Summary
P C Foreign Affair broke stride in 2 of his last 3 starts and drew post 9 in between, but if he stays flat, his race four starts back at a comparable level out of town makes him a front-end threat at a good price. Play a 4-ALL exacta.


Hoosier Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#2 FEARLESS TOM
No match for repeat fave, takes some catching in this spot.


#7 ER NELSON
Rallied for third in his last three starts, finished ahead of 'Tom.'


#10 INQUIRING MIND
Unraced 3yo been traveling around to get ready, watch odds.


Race Summary
Fearless Tom controlled the pace two back but was no match for the winning favorite who came back to beat him again. He could go non-stop in this spot, so play a 2/7,10/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Oaklawn Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#6 Witch Doctor
Was outrun in a pair of starter allowance races and in a softer spot here; will be much closer to the pace and can answer the call when asked.


#4 Chicory Blue
Was up in time and was claimed by Diodoro last out; can be close from the beginning and can dig in when challenged. Big player.


#2 Dunph
Was claimed by Diodoro for $30,000 last time and drops to $7,500; has a class advantage but the plunge down the class ladder is an eye opener.


Race Summary
Witch Doctor can track a moderate pace and finish with good energy; trainer Morse has done well lately and has this one in a good spot.


Oaklawn Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#7 Music App
Set or forced the pace in fast races and will attempt to get her way on the front end.


#4 Sianara
Tired to fourth last time and could be just off the pace today, and that could be a good thing for her.


#3 Berry Good
Just missed in her only start and likely will be among those with a big chance as they drive to the wire. Will get plenty of play.


Race Summary
Music App put down some quick fractions in fast races and looks like the one to catch here.


Oaklawn Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Bye Bye J
Had a tough trip and finished fourth last time out; is back with Arkansas-breds and can win it with a closing move.


#7 Hillary G
Was a clear winner in both starts against state-breds, including last time in the $150,000 Rainbow Miss; can be expected to be tough right back.


#9 Proud Victoria
Made an impressive late run for an easy win vs. claimers last out; has what it takes to get into the minor exotics.


Race Summary
Bye Bye J has been successful vs. open company as well as Arkansas-breds, and her best effort can be enough here. Her last win came in the Saylorville at Prairie Meadows, a race in which she stopped the timer in 1:08 3-5 for six furlongs. Capable of getting back to the winner's circle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kentucky Derby Draw Rapid Reaction

April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

A capacity field of 20 entered today for Saturday’s 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, and longtime track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia designated unbeaten Essential Quality (post 14) the 2-1 morning line favorite. The run for the roses will be Race 12 of 14 on a program that gets underway at 10:30 am ET. Derby post is 6:57 pm ET.

Watch and wager on the full card at Xpressbet.com and on the 1/ST BET app.

The 20-horse starting gate, which debuted last year with only 15 starters in the Derby, could change what we know about the importance of post positions. Gone is the gap between posts 14 and 15 when there was a main and auxiliary starting gate connection. The extra real estate allows for the new gate to be positioned a few crucial feet farther away from the inside rail. This could alleviate some of the inside congestion at the start, as well as the abrupt left-hand intensity of the outside runners crushing down to fill the void.

But the Derby pace is not as clear on paper as some years, and that could make the starting positions very important in terms of jockey intent and how they’ll want to settle into their preferred spot.

Rock Your World (post 15) and Medina Spirit (post 8) were 1-2 throughout the Santa Anita Derby, the former appearing more naturally gifted with early foot. With ex-sprinter Highly Motivated in post 17 off a wire-to-wire Blue Grass attempt when second, that could turn up the pressure on Rock Your World early. Soup and Sandwich (post 19) has trained very aggressively and was forward in the Florida Derby. He’s the most likely to bolt early from that post, again outside of Rock Your World.

To their inside, Hot Rod Charlie (post 9) wrestled command at the start of the Louisiana Derby. He could have the most early foot of anyone in the first 9 starting spots. With hot-training Midnight Bourbon (post 10) next door, that’s a potential pace hook-up as well – with the other principal speeds pressuring from outside. I would say this draw should help pick up the pace of the Derby.

Essential Quality should be midflight early in the Derby, but showed in the Blue Grass he’s capable of pressing the pace and pouncing. Jockey Luis Saez wired the 2019 Derby aboard Maximum Security before being disqualified for interference. That he knows the front-end feeling in this race should not be lost on possible rider intent.

None of the leading contenders are deep closers. Florida Derby winner Known Agenda wants a mid-pack trip, but could find that crowded from the rail and will have to work out a journey under Irad Ortiz Jr. But Todd Pletcher’s Super Saver, a horse Known Agenda stylistically mirrors, carved such a winning run here in 2010 from post 4 while on the rail most of the way.

Kentucky Derby 147 Field:

1. Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1
2. Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke) 50-1
3. Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli) 50-1
4. Keepmeinmind (David Cohen) 50-1
5. Sainthood (Corey Lanerie) 50-1
6. O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza) 20-1
7. Mandaloun (Florent Geroux) 15-1
8. Medina Spirit (John Velazquez) 15-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat) 8-1
10. Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith) 20-1
11. Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz) 20-1
12. Helium (Julien Leparoux) 50-1
13. Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano) 50-1
14. Essential Quality (Luis Saez) 2-1
15. Rock Your World (Joel Rosario) 5-1
16. King Fury (Brian Hernandez) 20-1
17. Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano) 10-1
18. Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
19. Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione) 30-1
20. Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche) 30-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs



Evangeline Downs - Race 7

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta



SO $10,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 8:32P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 28, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ASHLEY'S NEW SHOES: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. GALAXY THIRTYSIX: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. MISS OCEAN EXPRESS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BROKE FINANCING: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. CATCAKE: Horse i s dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer.



6

ASHLEY'S NEW SHOES

5/2


5/1




10

GALAXY THIRTYSIX

4/1


6/1




1

MISS OCEAN EXPRESS

12/1


8/1




2

BROKE FINANCING

15/1


8/1




3

CATCAKE

6/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




9

HANDSOME GIRL

9


10/1

Front-runner

82


78


43.7


68.7


53.7




6

ASHLEY'S NEW SHOES

6


5/2

Alternator/Front-runner

84


75


56.2


68.0


57.0




8

MEMORY MAGIC

8


5/1

Stalker

83


78


63.4


67.6


60.6




2

BROKE FINANCING

2


15/1

Stalker

77


77


61.2


65.6


58.6




3

CATCAKE

3


6/1

Stalker

76


79


61.0


66.0


54.0




5

DUEFORADATE

5


6/1

Stalker

73


65


59.8


67.4


58.4




10

GALAXY THIRTYSIX

10


4/1

Stalker

83


80


54.8


70.6


68.6




1

MISS OCEAN EXPRESS

1


12/1

Stalker

80


68


49.2


67.6


60.1




4

LADY RAD

4


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

66


60


46.2


60.0


42.0




7

HERO OF GOLD

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

77


59


40.0


55.4


40.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National



Penn National - Race 8

W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double



Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 9:02P


(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Trailer. SHOWER THE PEOPLE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAYNOOTH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHOWER THE PEOPLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



1

MAYNOOTH

12/1


5/2




3

SHOWER THE PEOPLE

2/1


7/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

MORE THUNDER

5


3/1

Front-runner

63


68


42.8


56.2


50.7




2

NO MORE MARTINIS

2


3/1

Stalker

66


58


60.9


56.6


45.6




4

WELL BORN

4


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

72


61


48.4


63.0


57.5




3

SHOWER THE PEOPLE

3


2/1

Trailer

71


70


64.0


68.2


63.2




6

WHERE'S THE BEN'S

6


15/1

Trailer

65


61


29.8


50.0


40.0




1

MAYNOOTH

1


12/1

Alternator/Trailer

88


86


43.8


67.6


63.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,900 Class Rating: 86

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 GIO DUDE (ML=8/1)
#3 CANTAKEITANYMORE (ML=5/2)
#6 THE PREDICTOR (ML=10/1)


GIO DUDE - I think the shorter distance will help this gelding stay the distance. This jock and conditioner are reliable together. Win pct when teamed up is difficult to beat. Ran in the last race against better company at Charles Town. The move to a lower class level should suit him well. Last time out, finished fifth on a track listed as good at Charles Town. I'd expect a better race in this event. CANTAKEITANYMORE - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Latchman and Hurley partnered up are a horse gambler's friend. This racer coming off a sharp contest in the last month or so is a win candidate in my humble opinion. This gelding notched a nice fig of 86 in his last event. That speed fig should be high enough to win this time out. THE PREDICTOR - I expect this thoroughbred to shock some people in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JUST KIDDING (ML=7/5), #4 WALL (ML=6/1),

JUST KIDDING - This questionable contender didn't race too well last time out of the box finishing third. Can't expect a reversal of fortune today. WALL - Ran squirrelly on Apr 2nd. Be leery this time out. Quite unimpressive speed rating last out at Charles Town at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will improve too much in today's event.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #7 GIO DUDE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,6,7] with [3,6,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 STRIKING CHROME 7/2




# 1 TAP DANCE FEVER 4/1




# 2 CHEERLEADER BARB 6/1




STRIKING CHROME is the best bet in this race. She has garnered decent numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this field. Ought to be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last contest. Is difficult not to examine based on speed figures which have been very good - 73 avg - of late. TAP DANCE FEVER - Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. CHEERLEADER BARB - Can't overlook the connections here, a 18 winning percentage, one of the strongest at getting into the winner's circle. Sound average Equibase speed figs in turf route races make this racer a contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,300 Class Rating: 81

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 YOUNG AMERICAN (ML=8/1)
#8 LOVEATTURKEYCLUB (ML=12/1)


YOUNG AMERICAN - Took a significant drop in class rating last time around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Returning to a similar level right here. Should perform well in this race. LOVEATTURKEYCLUB - Looking at the PPs, it shows this gelding has won at double-digit odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BAR STOOL BUDGET (ML=3/1), #2 MUCHO PROSPECT (ML=7/2), #5 JUNIOR GILLIAM (ML=9/2),

BAR STOOL BUDGET - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races lately. Not probable to see him doing it this time around either. Mediocre speed figure in the last race at Oaklawn Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this steed will improve too much in today's race. MUCHO PROSPECT - Not easy to play any racer in a short distance race at 7/2 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last sixty days. JUNIOR GILLIAM - Speed figures of 82/74/54 are started downward. 9/2 is not priced right for any mount in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance event recently.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 YOUNG AMERICAN to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 78

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 YES I'M LOOKING 5/1




# 3 MIRACULOUSBLESSING 2/1




# 2 MAGICALLYDELICIOUS 3/1




YES I'M LOOKING is the strongest wager in this race. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Bedard running at this distance are the best in this group. Could beat this group given the 78 Equibase Speed Figure put up in her last outing. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. MIRACULOUSBLESSING - Has solid speed figs and has to be considered for a wager here. This filly with Gonzalez in the saddle makes her a contender. MAGICALLYDELICIOUS - There is a formidable possibility of an increase in speed as this filly changes blinkers (on) for the first time. Put up a formidable speed fig last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park



04/28/21, OP, Race 1, 1.00 CT
04/28/21,OP,1,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $27,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Best
Occurs
Win%
ROI


100.0000
3
Confess
6/1
Vazquez R A
Green Aidan
JTW
83
39.76
2.09/$1


096.5774
1A
Stone Secret
3/1
Camacho. Jr. S
Rengstorf Tony
L
117
35.04
1.66/$1


096.2838
6
Ace Gilford
9/2
Quinonez L S
Von Hemel Donnie K.


117
35.04
1.66/$1


095.9081
4
Haney Boys
5/2
Medina J A
Gladd Andy
FE
117
35.04
1.66/$1


095.7667
7
Scyntz
6/1
Morales J
Russell Edwin G.


117
35.04
1.66/$1


095.4523
1
Toil and Trouble
3/1
Thompson T J
Barkley Jason
S
117
35.04
1.66/$1


093.9290
2
That Dude
15/1
Bowen R
Milligan Allen
C
111
35.14
1.69/$1


093.7400
5
Squared Straight
7/2
Torres C A
Villafranco Federico


117
35.04
1.66/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 25.00, ROI 0.86/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -3.4226
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]BestWorkouts -with-
[DirtMdnMClm]ActualPostNotGreaterThan9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

565ATLANTA -566 PHILADELPHIA
ATLANTA is 12-32 ATS (-23.2 Units) in road games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons.

567LA LAKERS -568 WASHINGTON
LA LAKERS are 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

569ORLANDO -570 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days in the last 3 seasons.

573CHICAGO -574 NEW YORK
CHICAGO is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 in the current season.

575SAN ANTONIO -576 MIAMI
MIAMI is 64-45 ATS (14.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

577NEW ORLEANS -578 DENVER
NEW ORLEANS are 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

581UTAH -582 SACRAMENTO
UTAH is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Wednesday, April 28

Orlando @ Cleveland
Magic (18-43)
— Orlando lost 12 of its last 13 games.
— Magic is 6-4 ATS in last ten road games.
— Over is 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.

Cavaliers (21-40)
— Cleveland lost eight of its last ten games SU.
— Cavaliers are 2-4 ATS in last six home games.
— Over is 8-5 in last 13 Cleveland games.

— Orlando won last six series games (5-1 ATS)
— Magic is 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Ohio.
— Under is 9-1 in last ten series games.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Hawks (34-28)
— Hawks is 20-8 SU since they changed coaches.
— Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
— Over is 6-3 in their last nine road games.

76ers (40-21)
— 76ers lost four of their last five games SU.
— Sixers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
— Under is 16-6 in Philly’s last 22 games.

— Atlanta won five of last seven series games.
— Hawks are 1-2 ATS in last three visits to Philly.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games

LA Lakers @ Washington
Lakers (36-25)
— Lakers lost three of their last four games.
— Lakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games.
— Over is 8-4 in their 12 games overall.

Wizards (27-34)
— Wizards won nine of last 12 games SU (9-3 ATS).
— Wizards are 3-5 ATS in last eight home games.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight home games

— Wizards won six of last nine series games.
— Lakers are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Washington.
— Four of last six series games stayed under the total.

Charlotte @ Boston
Hornets (30-31)
— Charlotte lost seven of its last ten games SU.
— Hornets are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games.
— Under is 20-6 in Charlotte’s last 26 games.

Celtics (32-30)
— Boston lost four of its last five games.
— Celtics are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 home games.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 games

— Celtics won six of last eight series games
— Hornets are 0-5 ATS in last five visits to Boston.
— Over is 7-3 in last ten series games

Chicago @ New York
Bulls (26-35)
— Chicago lost seven of its last 11 games SU.
— Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight road games.

Knicks (34-28)
— New York won 9 of last 10 games (12-1 ATS last 13).
— Knicks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.
— Over is 10-3 in New York’s last 13 games

— Knicks won five of last seven series games
— Bulls are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Manhattan.
— Four of last six series games stayed under.

San Antonio @ Miami
Spurs (31-29)
— San Antonio won five of its last six games.
— Spurs are 7-1 ATS in last eight road games.
— Under is 6-1 in Spurs’ last seven games.

Heat (32-30)
— Miami won/covered four of its last six games.
— Heat is 5-3 ATS in last eight home games.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

— Heat won four of last five series games.
— Spurs are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Miami.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.

Portland @ Memphis
Trailblazers (33-28)
— Portland lost five of its last six games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Blazers are 1-4 ATS in last five road games.
— Under is 9-5 in Portland’s last 14 games.

Grizzlies (31-29)
— Memphis is 4-3 in its last six games SU.
— 4th game in six nights for the Grizzlies.
— Grizzlies are 17-5 ATS in last 22 games overall.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Memphis games.

— Teams are playing each other for third time in six nights.
— Memphis is 4-3 in last seven series games.
— Blazers are 0-3 ATS in last six visits to Memphis.
— Three of last four series games went over the total.

New Orleans @ Denver
Pelicans (27-34)
— New Orleans lost five of its last seven games.
— Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five road games.

Nuggets (40-21)
— Denver won 14 of its last 17 games.
— Nuggets are 2-4 ATS in last six home games.
— Over is 4-2 in Denver’s last six home games.

— New Orleans won four of last six series games.
— Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to Denver.
— Six of last seven series games stayed under.

LA Clippers @ Phoenix
Clippers (43-20)
— Clippers won 17 of their last 21 games.
— Clippers are 1-4 ATS in last five road games.
— Six of last seven Clipper games stayed under the total.

Suns (43-18)
— Phoenix won seven of its last ten games (3-3 last six).
— Suns are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Over is 12-4 in their last 16 games.

— Clippers won eight of last ten series games.
— LA is 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Phoenix.
— Over is 5-5 in last ten series games

Utah @ Sacramento
Jazz (44-17)
— Utah lost three of its last five games.
— Jazz is 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games.
— Under is 6-1 in Utah’s last seven games.

Kings (25-36)
— Sacramento won three of its last five games.
— Kings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
— Under is 7-4 in Sacramento’s last 11 home games.

— Utah won five of last six series games
— Jazz are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Sacramento.
— Six of last nine series games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Wednesday, April 28

Trend Report

Orlando @ Cleveland
Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Orlando's last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 10 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games

LA Lakers @ Washington
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Lakers's last 11 games
Washington
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

Charlotte @ Boston
Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte

Chicago @ New York
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
New York
New York is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games
New York is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

San Antonio @ Miami
San Antonio
San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games
Miami
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

Portland @ Memphis
Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Portland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Memphis
Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland

New Orleans @ Denver
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Denver
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
Denver is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Utah @ Sacramento
Utah
Utah is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games
Sacramento
Sacramento is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 9 games when playing Utah

LA Clippers @ Phoenix
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
LA Clippers is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoop Trends for Wednesday April 28
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: LA Clippers at Phoenix (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Clippers are 11-0 ATS (12.55 ppg) on the road coming off a 10+ point loss.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Portland at Memphis (9:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Trail Blazers are 0-12 ATS (-11.75 ppg) coming off a road win where Damian Lillard made more three pointers than two pointers.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: San Antonio at Miami (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Spurs are 12-0-1 OU (8.92 ppg) as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Charlotte at Boston (7:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Hornets are 0-14 OU (-17.93 ppg) after Devonte Graham was their high scorer last game

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

901MIAMI -902 MILWAUKEE
MIAMI is 20-2 SU (17.6 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

903CINCINNATI -904 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 33-20 SU (13 Units) vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

905CHICAGO CUBS -906 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-10 SU (-10.2 Units) in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse in the current season.

907PHILADELPHIA -908 ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS are 24-16 SU (6.4 Units) in home games when the total is 9 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons.

909SAN DIEGO -910 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 37-21 SU (19.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the last 3 seasons.

911COLORADO -912 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 26-14 SU (15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

911COLORADO -912 SAN FRANCISCO
GABE KAPLER is 26-14 SU (10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record (Coach of SAN FRANCISCO)

913MINNESOTA -914 CLEVELAND
MINNESOTA is 3-13 SU (-11.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

915NY YANKEES -916 BALTIMORE
NY YANKEES are 1-11 SU (-11.9 Units) in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons.

917OAKLAND -918 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 334-279 SU (27.1 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Wednesday, April 28

NL games
Cubs (10-13) @ Atlanta (11-12)
— Hendricks is 1-2, 5.68 in four starts.
— Cubs are 1-3 in his starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 1-2, 4.55 in six games (5 starts) vs Atlanta.

— Cubs lost their last four games.
— Chicago is 2-6 on road.
— 15 of last 22 games stayed under the total.
— scored run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-12-2

— Ynoa is 0-1, 4.20 in three starts.
— Braves are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He gave up 6 runs in four IP, in one start vs Chicago.

— Braves won four of their last six games.
— Atlanta is 6-6 at home.
— Over is 9-3 in their home games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-5

Miami (10-13) @ Milwaukee (14-9)
— Alcantara is 0-2, 3.64 in five starts.
— Miami is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 1-0, 3.60 3 games (1 start) vs Milwaukee.

— Marlins lost six of their last nine games.
— Miami is 5-7 on the road.
— over 3-1-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 8-10-5

— Milwaukee hasn’t named a starter.

— Brewers won 13 of their last 19 games.
— Milwaukee is 5-6 at home.
— under 8-4-1 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 11-8-4

Philadelphia (11-12) @ St Louis (12-11)
— Velasquez allowed two runs in four IP (67 PT) in his first ’21 start
— He is in MLB starts.
— He is 1-2, 5.04 in five games (4 starts) vs St Louis.

— Phillies lost 11 of their last 16 games.
— Phillies are 3-8 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven road games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-23
— record in first 5 innings: 7-11-5

— Oviedo is making his first ’21 start.
— He was 0-3, 5.47 in three starts LY.
— He is making his first start vs Philly.

— Cardinals won four of their last five games.
— St Louis won five of last seven home games.
— Under 6-2-1 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-10-4

San Diego (13-12) @ Arizona (12-11)
— Weathers threw 9.1 scoreless IP in two starts, both vs LA.
— Those are his only two MLB starts.
— He threw 3 scoreless innings in a relief stint vs Arizona.

— Padres won three of last five games.
— San Diego is 8-4 on the road.
— three of last four games went over
— scored run in first inning: 6-25
— record in first 5 innings: 8-14-3

— Weaver is 1-2, 4.75 in four starts.
— Arizona is 2-2 in his starts
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3
— He is 2-5, 3.79 in eight starts vs San Diego.

— Arizona won seven of its last eight games.
— Arizona is 3-3 at home.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 5-23
— record in first 5 innings: 12-10-1

Colorado (9-14) @ San Francisco (15-9)
— Marquez is 1-1, 3.45 in five starts.
— Colorado is 3-2 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
— He is 4-5, 5.46 in 11 starts vs San Francisco, 3-4, 4.50 in 8 starts here.

— Colorado won six of its last nine games.
— Rockies are 1-7 on the road.
— Under 5-3 on the road.
— scored run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-4

— Wood allowed one run in 12 IP in two starts, both vs Miami.
— Giants are 2-0 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0
— He is 4-3, 6.52 in 15 games (12 starts) vs Colorado.

— Giants are 12-6 in their last 18 games.
— Giants are 9-3 at home.
— Under is 14-7-1 in their last 22 games.
— scored run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 13-8-3

Cincinnati (11-12) @ Dodgers (15-9)
— Gray is 0-1, 7.88 in two starts.
— Reds are 1-1 in his starts.
— over 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2
— He is 1-1, 1.80 in two starts vs Los Angeles.

— Cincinnati lost 11 of its last 16 games.
— Reds are 7-5 at home, 4-7 on road.
— Over 8-2-1 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 10-11-2

— Kershaw is 2-1, 1.38 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 3-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He is 3-2, 2.54 in 11 starts vs Cincinnati.

— Dodgers lost seven of their last nine games.
— Dodgers are 7-5 at home.
— over 5-0 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 12-8-4

AL games
Minnesota (7-15) @ Cleveland (11-11)
— Happ is 1-0, 1.69 in three starts.
— Twins are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He is 3-2, 4.19 in seven games (6 starts) vs Cleveland.

— Twins lost 13 of their last 15 games.
— Minnesota lost its last six road games.
— over 4-1-1 last six road games
— scores run in first inning: 9-22
— record in first 5 innings: 7-10-5

— Allen gave up nine runs in 4.1 IP, in his last two starts.
— Indians are 1-3 when he starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Minnesota.

— Cleveland won their last three games.
— Indians are 7-5 at home.
— over 5-2-1 last eight games
— scores run in first inning: 6-22
— record in first 5 innings: 6-13-3

Bronx (10-13) @ Baltimore (10-13)
— German is 1-2, 6.92 in three starts.
— New York is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He is 4-0, 2.97 in six games (4 starts) vs Baltimore.

— New York won five of its last eight games.
— New York is 6-6 on the road.
— under 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 2-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-11-3

— Orioles haven’t named a starter.

— Orioles lost 13 of their last 20 games.
— Baltimore is 7-4 on the road, 3-9 at home.
— under is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-10-4

Oakland (15-9) @ Tampa Bay (12-12)
— Irvin is 2-2, 3.86 in four starts.
— A’s are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— A’s won 14 of their last 16 games.
— Oakland won seven its last nine road games.
— Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 11-9-4

— Glasnow is 2-1, 2.95 in his last three starts.
— Rays are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Oakland.

— Tampa Bay lost four of its last six games.
— Rays are 5-7 at home.
— last four games stayed under
— scored run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-6

Angels (11-11) @ Texas (10-14)
— Cobb is 1-0, 6.91 in three starts.
— Angels are 2-1 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He is 1-1, 2.90 in six starts vs Texas.

— Halos are 5-9 in last 14 games overall.
— Angels lost seven of last ten road games.
— over 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 5-22
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-2

— Dunning is 1-0, 3.06 in four starts (18 IP).
— Texas is 1-3 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Texas lost five of its last seven games.
— Texas is 4-7 at home.
— under 8-3 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 11-10-3

Detroit (8-16) @ White Sox (12-10)
— Mize is 1-2, 5.23 in four starts.
— Detroit is 2-2 in his starts.
— under 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 0-0, 4.66 in two starts against the White Sox.

— Detroit lost 10 of its last 12 games.
— Detroit is 4-7 on the road.
— under 10-1 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-11 on road
— record in first 5 innings: 3-8 on road

— Rodon is 3-0, 0.95 in three starts.
— Chicago is 3-0 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 2-2, 6.82 in six starts vs Detroit.

— Chicago won six of its last eight games.
— White Sox are 6-4 at home.
— under 7-3 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 8-22
— record in first 5 innings: 15-2-5

Seattle (13-11) @ Houston (12-11)
— Dunn is 1-0, 3.68 in three starts.
— Seattle is 3-0 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He threw two scoreless innings, in his one start vs Houston.

— Seattle lost four of its last five games.
— Seattle is 6-7 on the road.
— under last three games
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 7-15-2

— Greinke is 2-1, 2.76 in five starts.
— Astros are 4-1 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 8-2, 2.09 in 17 games (15 starts) vs Seattle.

— Astros won five of their last six games.
— Astros are 6-6 at home.
— over 5-3 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 5-23
— record in first 5 innings: 11-9-3

Interleague games
Kansas City (14-8) @ Pittsburgh (12-11)
— Minor is 2-1, 4.64 in four starts.
— Royals are 3-1 in his starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 0-1, 5.00 in three starts against Pittsburgh.

— Royals are 14-8 in their first 22 games.
— Royals are 6-3 on the road.
— 15 of last 19 games under
— scores run in first inning: 3-22
— record in first 5 innings: 10-8-4

— Keller is 1-2, 7.16 in four starts.
— Pirates are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against the Royals.

— Pirates won four of their last five games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-3 at home.
— under 4-1-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-4

Washington (8-12) @ Toronto (11-11)
— Fedde is 1-1, 3.07 in his last three starts (14.2 IP).
— Washington split his four starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He gave up 2 runs in 3.1 IP, in his one start vs Toronto.

— Washington is 3-5 in its last eight games.
— Nationals are 3-7 on the road.
— under 12-5-1 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 4-10-6

— Matz is 4-0, 2.31 in his first four starts.
— Toronto is 4-0 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 4-0
— He is 1-7, 4.83 in 15 games (14 starts) vs Washington.

— Toronto won four of its last five games.
— Toronto is 4-3 at home in Florida.
— under 15-7
— scored run in first inning: 8-22
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-2

Boston (15-9) @ Mets (9-9)
— Pivetta is 2-0, 3.48 in four starts.
— Red Sox are 3-1 in his starts.
— over 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0-1
— He is 3-2, 6.08 in eight games (7 starts) against the Mets.

— Boston is 3-1 in its last four games.
— Red Sox are 7-1 on the road.
— over 3-2 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 9-10-5

— deGrom is 2-1, 1.24 in four starts.
— Mets are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 0-1, 3.32 in three starts vs Boston.

— Mets lost six of their last nine games.
— Mets are 6-3 at home.
— Under 7-1-1 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-8-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends for Wednesday April 28
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Boston at N.Y. Mets (6:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Red Sox are 13-0 SU since Aug 29, 2014 as a road dog of at least +140 off a game as a dog in which they left fewer than 10 men on base.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cincinnati at L.A. Dodgers (4:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Reds are 0-16 SU since May 25, 2011 coming off a game as a road dog where they scored first, then trailed and came back to win.

OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Twins are 0-12 OU (-2.42 ppg) since Jun 23, 2019 past the first game of a series as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at San Francisco (9:45 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockies are 0-10 SU since Aug 03, 2018 when German Marquez starts on the road when they won as an home favorite in his last start.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

35VANCOUVER -36 OTTAWA
OTTAWA is 150-140 ATS (-4 Units) in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread since 1996.

37ST LOUIS -38 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (14.3 Units) in home games against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

39TORONTO -40 MONTREAL
MONTREAL is 16-24 ATS (-18.2 Units) against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

41EDMONTON -42 WINNIPEG
EDMONTON is 22-5 ATS (16 Units) against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the current season.

43COLORADO -44 VEGAS
VEGAS are 17-3 ATS (12.3 Units) against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances in the current season.

45ANAHEIM -46 LOS ANGELES
LOS ANGELES are 70-87 ATS (-25.7 Units) in home games off an home win scoring 4 or more goals since 1996.

47ARIZONA -48 SAN JOSE
ARIZONA is 7-2 ATS (4.8 Units) after allowing 5 goals or more in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Wednesday, April 28

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vancouver @ Ottawa
Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 5 games on the road
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Ottawa's last 11 games at home

St. Louis @ Minnesota
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
St. Louis is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Toronto @ Montreal
Toronto
Toronto is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home
Montreal is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto

Edmonton @ Winnipeg
Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Edmonton's last 8 games on the road
Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 9 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Winnipeg is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Edmonton

Colorado @ Vegas
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing Vegas
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Vegas
Vegas
Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Vegas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Anaheim @ Los Angeles
Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Anaheim is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing at home against Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing Anaheim

Arizona @ San Jose
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Jose
Arizona is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Jose
San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose's last 5 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Apr 28 '21, 7:05 PM in 16m
MLB | Yankees vs Orioles
Play on: Yankees -146 at linepros

FREE PICK - New York Yankees -146
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 915
I will take my chances here with the Yankees as a -146 road favorite against the Orioles. New York has greatly underachieved to this point and a big reason for that is their offense hasn't produced anywhere close to expected. New York is only scoring 3.6 runs/game and hitting .210 as a team thru 23 games.
It's only a matter of time before they get hot and stay hot. They were on their game in yesterday's 5-1 win. While they only scored 5 runs, their 12 hits was the second highest output of the season. It certainly doesn't hurt that the Orioles are sending out Dean Kremer. In his 3 starts to this point, Kremer has an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.874 WHIP.
Domingo German will go for the Yankees. While he's just 1-2 with a poor 6.23 ERA and 1.692 WHIP, he had his best start in his last outing. He only gave up 2 ER in 6 innings. German is also a perfect 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Orioles. Give me the Yankees -146!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule Apr 28 '21, 7:07 PM in 18m
MLB | Nationals vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -155 at linepros

This is a free play on the Blue Jays.
The Jays host Washington in Game 2 of this home series Monday. and the pitching matchup seems to favor Toronto.
Stephen Matz will toe the slab for the Jays, and Toronto has won all five of his starts. Matz (4-0, 2.31 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits, striking out seven in five innings in a win at Tampa his last time out. After blanking the Rays through the first four innings, he made one mistake allowing a three run home run in the fifth.
The Nats hand the ball to Erick Fedde, who hasn't missed many bats this season. Fedde (1-2, 5.40 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and two walks in five innings in a 6-0 loss to the Mets his last time out.
The Nationals are 3-8 in their last 11 games as an underdog.
GL,
Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Apr 28 '21, 7:08 PM in 19m
NHL | Blues vs Wild
Play on: Wild -137 at Draft Kings

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Wild -137

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Apr 28 '21, 7:08 PM in 19m
NHL | Blues vs Wild
Play on: Wild -137 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Wild -137

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ricky Tran Apr 28 '21, 7:10 PM in 21m
MLB | A's vs Rays
Play on: Rays -157 at pinnacle

Ricky's 1* play on the Rays.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Rays are 39-15 in their last 54 games as a home favorite.
- The Rays are 50-22 in their last 72 home games.
- The Rays are 9-1 in Glasnows last 10 starts as a home favorite.
Verdict: The Rays have underachieved so far, but expect them to go on a run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Apr 28 '21, 8:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Canadiens
Play on: UNDER 6 -108

Free Total Annihilator On Maple Leafs vs Canadiens under 6 -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Apr 28 '21, 8:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Canadiens
Play on: Maple Leafs -135 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Maple Leafs -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Apr 28 '21, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Tigers vs White Sox
Play on: Tigers +185 at Draft Kings

Free Play on Tigers +185

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Apr 28 '21, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | DET vs CWS
Play on: OVER 7½ -110

1* Free Pick on Tigers/White Sox over 7½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy Apr 28 '21, 9:08 PM in 2h
NHL | Oilers vs Jets
Play on: Jets +102 at pinnacle

Wednesday NHL Free play. My selection is on Winnipeg over Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday.
We missed the mark with the Jets in another blowout loss against the Oilers on Monday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that the Jets have gone 21-6 when revenging a loss by four goals or more under the guidance of head coach Paul Maurice, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 goals. Meanwhile, the Oilers check in just 8-14 when coming off a win by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. The Oilers have now won five straight meetings in this series after dropping two of the first three this season. This is obviously a critical game for the Jets to turn the tide following four straight losses, all coming by multiple goal margins. Keep in mind, Winnipeg has gone 21-11 after suffering consecutive losses over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Take Winnipeg (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander Apr 28 '21, 9:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Pelicans vs Nuggets
Play on: Nuggets -3½ -110 at Mirage

1* NBA - Pelicans/Nuggets *FREE PICK* on Nuggets -3.5
Wednesday's Free NBA Pick is on the Denver Nuggets as a 3.5-point home favorite against the New Orleans Pelicans. I just don't trust this Pelicans team at all. I know they come in off a 120-103 upset win at the Clippers, but LA was flat that entire game and didn't have Leonard. Their only other win in their last 7 games is against a tanking Magic team. Pelicans have also not covered in back-to-back games in almost a month. Nuggets are 14-3 SU in their last 17 and only 1 of those losses came at home. Bet Denver -3.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Apr 28 '21, 9:38 PM in 2h
NHL | Avalanche vs Golden Knights
Play on: Golden Knights -132 at Draft Kings

Free Pick on Golden Knights

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Apr 28 '21, 9:38 PM in 2h
NHL | Avalanche vs Golden Knights
Play on: Golden Knights -132 at Draft Kings

1* on Golden Knights -132

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Apr 28 '21, 9:45 PM in 2h
MLB | Rockies vs Giants
Play on: Giants -145 at pinnacle

1 Dimer on Giants -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer Apr 28 '21, 10:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Clippers vs Suns
Play on: OVER 220 -110

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 4/28:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday was Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns. Phoenix (43-18) looks to build off a 118-110 win at New York as a 3-point favorite on Monday. The Suns return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total. Phoenix has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Los Angeles (43-20) had their four-game winning streak end with a 120-103 upset loss at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Monday. The Clippers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing at Phoenix. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price Apr 28 '21, 10:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Jazz vs Kings
Play on: Kings +8½ -104 at pinnacle

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Sacramento Kings +8.5
The Key: The Utah Jazz are really struggling without their best player in Donovan Mitchell. And now they are without Mike Conley as well tonight, a pair of starters that they cannot afford to lose and still be laying 8.5 points on the road to the Sacramento Kings. The Jazz are coming off 2 straight upset losses as double-digit favorites to the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. They are now just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They face a Kings team that has recent upset wins over the Mavericks twice in going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Jazz are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as underdogs. Take Sacramento.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson Apr 28 '21, 10:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Jazz vs Kings
Play on: Jazz -8 -110 at BetCris

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Grab a long term package today and get all picks in all sports! This is a NO BRAINER! 25 years of winning! Will put my 25 year records up against any other capper in the industry!
Rocketman Sports FREE NBA play Wednesday 4-28-21
Utah @ Sacramento (10:10 PM EST)
Play On: Utah -8
The Utah Jazz travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings on Wednesday night. Utah is 44-17 SU overall this year while Sacramento comes in with a 25-36 SU overall this year. Sacramento is 2-6 ATS last 8 games against a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. Sacramento is 1-3-1 ATS last 5 home games. Sacramento is 5-16 ATS last 21 games when playing on 1 days rest. Sacramento is 1-6-1 ATS last 8 games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Apr 28 '21, 10:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Clippers vs Suns
Play on: Suns -4 -106 at BetCris

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Phoenix Suns -4
The Phoenix Suns can grab a stranglehold on the Pacific Division with a win tonight over the Los Angeles Clippers. They are playing with double-revenge after losing the first two meetings this season to the Clippers. But they won't have to face three of their best players this time around in Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverly. Paul George is also banged up with an ankle injury even though he is expected to play tonight. George had just 9 points in 3-of-11 shooting against the Pelicans in a 103-120 loss last game as the ankle injury clearly affected him. They could also be without Nicolas Batum, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. This depleted version of the Clippers isn't good enough to hang with Phoenix tonight. Give me the Suns.