Thursday 4/29/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Churchill Downs - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#3 Dolder Grand
He's Grade I placed on the turf from the Summer Stakes last year at Woodbine, so he's interesting on the move back to the grass after facing some pretty stout groups in New Orleans.


#1 Win Worthy
That was a good debut effort behind a very logical winner, and I think that guy has some price appeal in stakes company this weekend. Big chance with any step forward.


#8 Awakened
Think this guy would be interesting enough if he offered something like the 12/1 ML price. His best lifetime race came on the lawn, so maybe the surface switch will wake him up off the bench.


Race Summary
Dolder Grand has some really tough company lines from those races at Fair Grounds, and he turned in a couple of good efforts on the turf to open his career in Canada.


Churchill Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Set Piece
Think he can land the right kind of trip behind what figures to be a fair pace if this group stays intact. Price should be right to see if a cutback sharpens his late kick.


#1 Sayyaf
He has looked like a different horse since moving around two turns and posting a couple of sharp scores. He rises off the Maker claim, and this barn does really good with this type of high-end claimer turned stakes horse. Move him up if any of the other speed comes out.


#7 Snapper Sinclair
He has knocked heads with some solid types throughout his career, and his better turf form would stack up nicely with this group. Chance.


Race Summary
Set Piece figures to get the right kind of setup if all the pace stays on, and this feels like the kind of group he may be able to best after disappointing as the chalk in the Kentucky Cup Classic.


Churchill Downs - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#2 Change of Control
She's a perfect 3-for-3 over the local turf course and brings a nice score with her from Keeneland last out in which she handled a few of these. Another great trip tracking the pace should be in store.


#4 Oleksandra
Big finisher has some pretty serious company lines, and there are a few pace players signed on who may set the table for a late run.


#1 Into Mystic
She hit the top before settling for second behind Change of Control as the even-money chalk last out, and she has been overbet in several consecutive starts. Better number today?


Race Summary
Change of Control should be in line for another spying trip behind a few pace players, and something like the 4/1 ML price would seem appealing enough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#8 GINGER TREE SKYR
Can handle class rise with re-run of his first victory of the season.


#6 COMMON PARLANCE
Buried lesser, rounding to another good race, Miller's choice of two.


#3 WHETHER OR NOT FI
Got past the favorite but settled for second best.


Race Summary
Ginger Tree Skyr advanced first-over the blew past the pace-setting favorite with ease, earning a playback on the class rise. He starts from post 8 again but should offer good betting value as a result. Play an 3-6-8 exacta box.


Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#3 BELLA BELLINI
Accelerated on her own courage in comeback romp, can't go beyond.


#1 COLLEGE TUITION
Holding excellent form, won from the rail.


#4 WORTHY OF HONOR
Finished second in 5 of 8 starts at Pocono Downs this year.


Race Summary
Bella Bellini ran away from the 1-to-5 favorite through a :56 back half in a smashing seasonal debut. She takes on mostly male rivals today but it shouldn't be a problem. Play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.


Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#4 PARDON MY WAY
Can sustain rally in bid to surpass $100,000 in earnings.


#7 ONLY FOR JUSTICE
Arrived from Canada in good form, ran third at odds-on, merits respect.


#1 ROSE RUN VINCENT
Led long way from rail in latest, switches pilots.


Race Summary
Pardon My Way finished a non-threatening fourth behind some hard hitters (See Rock of Cashel in race 9 today) but could mount a contending rally at a good price today. His four wins this year tops the field. Play 4-1 and 4-7 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#1 Chica Boom
Ran a good race in her first distance and turf attempt as she set the pace and hung around for third. She drops back half a furlong and can improve in her third effort. One to beat.


#2 Eskimo's Boss
Lacked a big finish and wound up sixth vs. open company and can benefit from dropping into a Florida-bred race.


#3 Art of Law
Was a non-threatening fourth at Tampa last out and can probably bring a decent rally.


Race Summary
Chica Boom comes off a solid performance in only her second start and looks like she's going to get nothing but better. Will be difficult for rivals to handle today.


Gulfstream Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Crea's Bklyn Law
Has a strong late move and will get a good pace in front of him; comes out of decent races and can run on past in this one.


#2 Create Again
Drops out of handicaps and starter allowances and will be troublesome on the front end.


#1 Rebelde
Was outrun in much tougher races and is in a N3L spot in which he should be competitive.


Race Summary
Crea's Bklyn Law has done well over this strip and under Lopez can get going when it's time to go.


Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#5 Ranger Up
Ran on for third in his last two races and is due to get it done; should have not a problem with turf at this level.


#6 Mitzrayim
Has been going against better competition and can improve in his third of the year.


#1 Call Bros
Fell off a bit last time when he ran sixth after a pair of thirds at this level; can make a run here.


Race Summary
Ranger Up has been competitive in most of his races and he was at a much higher level the only time he tried turf; Vasquez can have him running on well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park



Sam Houston Race Park - Race 4

WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 4-5) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)



Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 57 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 5:21P


QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GLIMPS OF A WINNER: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



9

GLIMPS OF A WINNER

5/2


4/5
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

LEAVING YOU ALONE

3


7/2

Fast

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0




8

HALEYS FAST CASH

8


6/1

Average

58


34


0.0


0.0


0.0




9

GLIMPS OF A WINNER

9


5/2

Average

82


63


0.0


0.0


0.0




10

JESS A SWEET DREAM

10


9/2

Average

59


31


0.0


0.0


0.0























Unknown Running Style: JAELS SIGN (8/1) [Jockey: Mares Jr Jorge A - Trainer: Rios Zackery N], LOTTA FIZZ (12/1) [Jockey: Vivanco Luis L - Trainer: Huitron Joel], PRIZED PIE PERRY (20/1) [Jockey: Ramirez Froylan T - Trainer: Castillo Miguel A], RACEY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 11

Late Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)



Claiming $12,500 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 10:20


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DADDYS GOT ACES: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CARTEL FORM: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. CAPOS RENEGADE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. HEZA PRIZE CONTENDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KOOL OKEY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.



7

DADDYS GOT ACES

7/2


9/2




9

CARTEL FORM

9/2


6/1




3

CAPOS RENEGADE

5/1


8/1




5

HEZA PRIZE CONTENDER

15/1


9/1




10

KOOL OKEY

8/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

JESSIES GOOD CANDY

1


10/1

Average

55


59


5.4


0.0


0.0




2

PRIME CARTEL

2


8/1

Average

57


59


3.6


0.0


0.0




3

CAPOS RENEGADE

3


5/1

Fast

80


67


3.4


0.0


0.0




4

LISAS SPECIAL WOODY

4


15/1

Slow

64


54


8.7


0.0


0.0




5

HEZA PRIZE CONTENDER

5


15/1

Average

77


71


5.1


0.0


0.0




6

HONKITONK

6


15/1

Fast

71


69


2.4


0.0


0.0




7

DADDYS GOT ACES

7


7/2

Average

85


80


4.1


0.0


0.0




8

FIRST PRIZE SUSIE

8


4/1

Average

71


65


5.5


0.0


0.0




9

CARTEL FORM

9


9/2

Slow

77


75


6.4


0.0


0.0




10

KOOL OKEY

10


8/1

Average

71


67


4.2


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 VRONILLA PARFAIT (ML=4/1)
#4 QUEEN HELENE (ML=1/1)
#3 MEET MISS KITTY (ML=8/1)


VRONILLA PARFAIT - The Brain taught me this angle. Watch for animals that show good zip, drop back, then run evenly with a stretch drive. Stay with this horse. No other viable pace gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. Last ran at Golden Gate Fields and finished fourth. Reviewing her PP lines, I see she was close at the end, within five of the winner. QUEEN HELENE - Last race March 28th was pretty strong for a $16,000 Claiming race so this mare's effort wasn't all that bad. Strong return on investment for this jock and trainer tandem. Thomas enters this thoroughbred in a spot where she should fit well based on her last two speed figures. The 92 last race rating looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. This horse brings in a lot of dough per race. Tops in this race. MEET MISS KITTY - DeLima brings her right back. I recommend you stick with this strong mare.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CROWN KITTEN (ML=7/2), #1 NAMORITA (ML=8/1),

CROWN KITTEN - Last ran on Mar 28th at Golden Gate Fields, finishing sixth. Unlikely to advance off of that try in today's event. NAMORITA - Not easy to wager on any racer in a sprint event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #6 VRONILLA PARFAIT on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 86

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 14, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 29, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 AWESOME SIGHT 2/1




# 1 SURF HEAT 5/1




# 3 WILDWOOD DANCER 5/2




AWESOME SIGHT looks to be a very good contender. This gelding looks very good for this event since Garciaorozco has a strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Likely to see this animal to be right there on the wire versus these racers. Could beat this group given the 86 speed rating recorded in his last outing. SURF HEAT - He has been running very well and the speed figures are among the most respectable in this field. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of decent win percentage - 19 percent - at this distance & surface. WILDWOOD DANCER - He looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park


04/29/21, GP, Race 4, 2.15 ET
04/29/21,GP,4,7 1/2F [Turf About] 1:26:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $29,000 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (If no three-year-olds are entered, older weight will revert to 120 lbs.). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turfcourse, it will be run on the main track at Seven Furlongs) (Rail at 60 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Best
Occurs
Win%
ROI


100.0000
6
Garner State Park
3/1
Maragh R R
Crichton Rohan
FEC
584
32.53
1.11/$1


097.0327
1
Starry Hope
8/1
Morelos J E
McGoey Monica
SL
584
32.53
1.11/$1


096.3338
7
Karenville
5/1
Berrios H I
De La Cerda Armando


563
29.66
1.16/$1


095.1692
3
Touring Egypt
4/1
Zayas E J
Pompay Teresa M.
T
230
36.96
1.24/$1


095.0089
4
Tami's Orchid
7/2
Sutherland C
Abreu Fernando


563
29.66
1.16/$1


094.4951
8
Kick Out the Jams
12/1
Gonzalez E
Maker Michael J.
J
563
29.66
1.16/$1


091.4226
2
Awildas Treasure
20/1
Vasquez M A
Cordero-Lopez Alexis
W
563
29.66
1.16/$1


091.3860
5
Smooth Pebble
9/2
Lopez P
Clement Christophe


563
29.66
1.16/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 27.14, ROI 0.79/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.9673
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]LastRaceWasSprintWithSprintToday
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Best
Occurs
Win%
ROI


100.0000
6
Garner State Park
3/1
Maragh R R
Crichton Rohan
FEC
248
27.02
0.83/$1


097.9297
4
Tami's Orchid
7/2
Sutherland C
Abreu Fernando


248
27.02
0.83/$1


097.5116
1
Starry Hope
8/1
Morelos J E
McGoey Monica
TSL
248
27.02
0.83/$1


096.6122
7
Karenville
5/1
Berrios H I
De La Cerda Armando


34
38.24
1.26/$1


096.4714
5
Smooth Pebble
9/2
Lopez P
Clement Christophe
W
162
40.74
1.53/$1


094.7372
8
Kick Out the Jams
12/1
Gonzalez E
Maker Michael J.
J
123
35.77
1.29/$1


094.0623
3
Touring Egypt
4/1
Zayas E J
Pompay Teresa M.


248
27.02
0.83/$1


089.4624
2
Awildas Treasure
20/1
Vasquez M A
Cordero-Lopez Alexis


248
27.02
0.83/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 23.21, ROI 1.03/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.0703
[Category]Condition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Stakes - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, DESERT CLASSIC FUTURITY CONSOLATION S. - FOR TWO YEAR OLD, WHO STARTED IN THE TRIALS FOR THE 2021 DESERT CLASSIC FUTURITY TRIALS AND FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE FINALS. WEIGHT: 122 LBS. PREFERENCE WILL BE DETERMINED BY TIME FROM THE TRIALS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 FIRE AN RAIN 5/2




# 7 WALKIN AWAY 9/2




# 8 SEPARATE ISSUE 10/1




I think FIRE AN RAIN is a decent choice. Has to be considered versus this group of horses in this race displaying solid figures lately and an average Equibase speed fig of 69 under similar conditions. Her earnings per start in short contests alone makes you take a look at her. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this racer look quite good in this race. WALKIN AWAY - Has performed strongly as of late in short races, posting a nifty 69 avg speed rating. This gelding looks like a longshot with a chance. SEPARATE ISSUE - This racer has to be bet on at the expected big odds. He has been running solidly and the speed figs are among the best in this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Evangeline Downs - Race #8 - Post: 8:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 54

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 C F JOHNATHAN (ML=10/1)
#7 KANNON WITH A K (ML=20/1)
#10 FIRSTTIMEVALENTINE (ML=8/1)


C F JOHNATHAN - With a big class drop in class figure points from his Feb 18th race at Fair Grounds. Based on that information, I will give this horse the advantage. KANNON WITH A K - This horse's last race was out at Delta Downs in a race with a class rating of 63. Dropping significantly in class rating this time puts him in a solid position in today's race. FIRSTTIMEVALENTINE - Ran against 'open' company last time around the track, in with state breds today. This rider and trainer have a positive return on investment when they join forces. The last fig of 51 is the highest last race speed fig in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SPECIAL STORM (ML=2/1), #5 COMERUNNINBOYS (ML=7/2), #8 DIT (ML=9/2),

SPECIAL STORM - This chalk horse ran on March 16th and hasn't had a morning drill after that. COMERUNNINBOYS - Doubtful for this entrant to do much running with no recent success in a short distance race. Awfully hard to play this steed when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit lately. Quite unimpressive rating in the last race at Delta Downs at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this entrant will improve too much in today's race. DIT - Just cannot bet on this entrant. Didn't show me anything positive last out or on March 10th.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FIRSTTIMEVALENTINE - At first glance the last event doesn't look that good, but upon further inspection that race fits right with this bunch.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 C F JOHNATHAN to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [7,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,7,10] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman Event: Granada at Barcelona
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Barcelona to Win Both Halves (-105)
Spain La Liga
This is built on the premise Barcelona is most likely going to keep a clean sheet, but even if they don't they can still cash this bet.
Atletico have coughed up their lead of over 10 points just a couple months ago and Barcelona with a win here will go atop the table for the first time since Round 4.
Meanwhile Granada away from home have been a disaster this season with just a 3-3-10 record and -16 goal differential and have lost seven of their last eight games in all competitions. They lost 0-2 at Man United in the Europa League with United winning this prop with a goal in each half while Sevilla would have cashed this ticket this past weekend if not for a 90' penalty for Granada which saw them draw the 2nd half in a 1-2 loss.
Barcelona have led at the half in 18 of 32 matches this season which doesn't sound like a lot, but it's the most in the league by quite a bit with Atletico having the 2nd most halftime leads with 14. They have also led at the half and cashed this ticket by winning both halves in six of the last nine H2H meetings with Granada.
Very little chance we see anything but a Barcelona win in this game and if the current spread is any indication, we should see Barcelona score early and often in this match.
TAKE BARCELONA TO WIN BOTH HALVES
Line Parameter: 3% to -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (201865) Granada CF at (201866) Barcelona FC
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score - Yes (+100)
We like the ‘Both Teams to Score - Yes’ prop on Thursday in the Spanish LaLiga matchup between Granada and Barcelona.
Barcelona are a team hitting stride right now and have a chance to claim top spot on Thursday if they manage to overcome Granada here at home.
While that's no doubt expected, Barcelona's defense hasn't exactly been fantastic of late by any stretch, with just one clean sheet over their last six LaLiga games, often content to simply overpower teams.
And that's what I expect here again on Thursday in a game Barcelona likely win by margin in, but also concede in as well.
Granada put 3 past Barca in the Copa del Rey quarter-final in an absolutely electric comeback by the Catalans over the final few minutes of that game back in February, and both teams have scored in all eight of Granada's most recent road games, so another BTTS is likely here.
Take the ‘Both Teams to Score - Yes’ prop on Thursday in the game between Granada and Barcelona.
PLAY: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez Event: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) St. Louis Cardinals
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -135 A Nola (RHP), K Kim (LHP) Must Start
951 Philadephia Phillies at 952 St Louis Cardinals +125, 7

The Cardinals and the Phillies meet on the Mississippi for the finale of a four-game series. The Philadelphia Achilles, over the last couple of years, continues in April of 2021. The shortcoming being the Phils road woes (3-8 as a visitor).

The host Cardinals send Kwang Hyun Kim to the hill in a game that the Phils have scheduled their ace, Aaron Nola. Kim has two starts covering 8.2 innings of work in which he has surrendered 10 hits; four earned runs with one walk and 12 strikeouts. The Cards right-hander worked 5 2/3 of one-run baseball in his first season win over the Reds, striking out a career-high eight batters.

Nola is the constant in the Phils rotation. No drama, no recent or scheduled surgeries, and despite no contract extensions that include mega-million dollar negotiations, the veteran continues to deliver. Nola has five starts and 31.2 innings of work completed in 2021. That work includes 27 hits, 10 runs, 32 K's against just 4 BB's with an ERA and xFIP of just under 3.00. The free pick is a play on Nola and the Phils as small road chalk.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports Event: (501) Dallas Mavericks at (502) Detroit Pistons
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Under 214.5 (-110)
The Mavericks fall into a very strong 17-1 UNDER situation of mine that dates back to January 21, 2015 and has landed under the posted total by an average margin of 18.61 points. Dallas is 8-3 UNDER in its last eleven games off a straight-up win (5-1 off a double-digit win), 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games after covering the point spread, and 7-2 UNDER in its previous nine games with one day of rest. The Pistons are 5-1-1 UNDER in their last seven games as underdogs, 6-1 UNDER in their last six games versus .501 or greater opposition, and 6-1-1 UNDER in their previous eight games overall. Take the UNDER as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick Winner for Thursday, April 29.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michaels Event: (957) Colorado Rockies at (958) Arizona Diamondbacks
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: April 29, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -150 A Senzatela (RHP), L Weaver (RHP) Must Start
Free Play: Arizona -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Thursday comp play on the points to add up in the Warriors-Timberwolves contest in the Twin Cities.

I would think after being held to 103 points in a 30-point home drilling absorbed against the Mavericks earlier this week, the Warriors will be ready to bust out tonight and net a few points against the T-Wolves.

Golden State did snap a skid of 4 straight Unders in that loss to Dallas and they will be facing a Minnesota team that has held Under the total in their last 3 games.

Based on those stats, you could make a case for an Under, but both series meetings this year between the teams have played Over and the Over is 4-2 the last 6 times these teams have faced one another, so my feeling is we are in store for some offense tonight.

2* GOLDEN STATE-MINNESOTA OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Thursday comp play on the Bucks to rake in the bucks against the Rockets.

This one is really a "no brainer" as Milwaukee still has a shot at the #1 overall seed in the conference standings as they trail the Nets by 3 1/2 game and the Sixers by 2 1/2 games in the standings.

Brooklyn plays tonight at Indiana, while Philly is idle, so look for the Bucks to keep pace with the Nets and gain a half-game on the 76ers with the comfortable win over the injury-depleted Rockets.

Houston has lost their last 5 games and they have now also lost John Wall for the remainder of the season to a hamstring injury.

Milwaukee has been able to go 12-6 this season when laying -10 points or more, so do not fear the big road impost in this spot.

This Rockers roster more resembles a "D" Team, than an actual NBA club these days.

Lay it with the Bucks.

3* MILWAUKEE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

My free play for tonight is the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

I won't get long-winded on this one, as it comes down to one player: Brewers starter Eric Lauer.

The southpaw steps to the hill for his season-debut after a disappointing first season with the Brewers in 2020. If there is a game he'll want to prove himself, and make a statement, it's tonight in the series-opener against the Dodgers.

When he was with the Padres, Lauer was a sterling 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against Los Angeles. Confidence is one thing he won't lack in this matchup.

I know Trevor Bauer has been lights out for the Dodgers, and he's already garnering Cy Young talk, but he is just 1-1 at Miller Park, with a 3.65 ERA. Eh, mediocre if you ask me. And since he's due for a clunker, and the Brewers winning six of their last nine, I think this might be a letdown spot for L.A.'s newest ace.

Let's take a shot here with the Brew Crew.

2* DODGERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gus Augustine

My free winner for Thursday is a matinee clash, as I'm playing the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland Athletics.

And I'm relying heavily on the arm of Shane McClanahan, who debuted as a reliever in the postseason last year. Now he makes his regular-season debut as a starter for the Rays, and I'm excited to see the club's No. 5 prospect.

Oakland has struggled a bit against lefties this season, hitting just .230 versus southpaws. Plays in favor for the hard-throwing southpaw, who is expected to stick around and will be good for four or five innings.

McClanahan, who celebrated his 24th birthday on Wednesday, has a high-ceiling arm and an electric fastball he won't be afraid to throw against the aggressive Athletics. His command has improved, so he'll be touching corners and leaving hitters frozen, rather than losing them to walks.

Oakland has lost two straight and three of four, as it gears up for its seventh straight road game. I don't like this spot at all, as the A's have to have one foot in their charter plane home.

Take the cheap home favorite.

1* RAYS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Free play winner last night in hockey came through on the Oilers-Jets Under the posted total.

Today I am playing another hockey Under on the Penguins-Capitals.

The Penguins have only been able to come up with 2 goals in their last 2 games and the Under stands at 3-0-1 for their last 4 contests this season.

Overall, Pittsburgh is on a 5-2-1 Under run for their last 8 games contested.

Washington has been Under in 2 of their last 3, as the puck has not been able to find its way into the net for the Capitals in 2 of those last 3 games.

These division rivals have not skated since the end of February and 2 of the last 3 between the teams have held Under the total.

Look for this one to be a defensive battle as these teams battle it out for the top spot in the East Division.

Pens-Caps Under

3* PITTSBURGH-WASHINGTON UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

501DALLAS -502 DETROIT
DALLAS are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the current season.

503BROOKLYN -504 INDIANA
INDIANA is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

505GOLDEN STATE -506 MINNESOTA
GOLDEN STATE is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons.

507MILWAUKEE -508 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons.

511NEW ORLEANS -512 OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, April 29

Trend Report

Dallas @ Detroit
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas

Brooklyn @ Indiana
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indiana's last 14 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Indiana is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Brooklyn

Milwaukee @ Houston
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Golden State @ Minnesota
Golden State
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games

New Orleans @ Oklahoma City
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games at home
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans

Toronto @ Denver
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, April 29

Dallas @ Detroit
Mavericks (34-27)
— Mavericks won four of their last five games.
— Mavericks are 7-4 ATS in last 11 road games.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven Dallas road games.

Pistons (19-43)
— Detroit is 3-4 SU in its last seven games
— Pistons are 15-10-1 ATS since the All-Star break.
— Under is 3-0 in Detroit’s last three games.

— Dallas won three of last four series games.
— Mavericks are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Detroit.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.

Brooklyn @ Indiana
Nets (42-20)
— Brooklyn won four of its last five games SU.
— Nets are 4-2 ATS in last six road games.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten Brooklyn road games.

Pacers (29-32)
— Indiana won three of its last four games SU.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Pacers are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games.
— Over is 5-1 in Indiana’s last six home games.

— Brooklyn won/covered last three series games.
— Nets are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to Indiana.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

Milwaukee @ Houston
Bucks (38-23)
— Milwaukee won three of its last four games SU.
— Bucks are 6-2 ATS in last eight road games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Under is 5-1 in Milwaukee’s last six road games.

Rockets (15-47)
— Houston lost 37 of its last 41 games SU.
— Rockets are 6-7 ATS in last thirteen games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

— Milwaukee won three of last four series games.
— Bucks are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Houston.
— Last five series games stayed under the total.

Golden State @ Minnesota
Warriors (31-31)
— Golden State won seven of its last ten games SU.
— Warriors are 3-7 ATS in last ten road games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games.

Timberwolves (19-44)
— Minnesota won five of its last seven games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Wolves are 6-3 ATS in last nine home games.
— Under is 3-0 in their last three games.

— Home side won last six series games.
— Warriors are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Minnesota.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.

New Orleans @ Oklahoma City
Pelicans (27-35)
— New Orleans lost six of its last eight games.
— Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
— Under is 3-0 in their last three games.

Thunder (21-41)
— Thunder lost 17 of its last 19 games.
— OKC is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
— Over is 5-1 in their last six home games.

— Thunder won five of last six series games.
— Pelicans are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Oklahoma.
— Four of last six series games stayed under.

Toronto @ Denver
Raptors (26-36)
— Toronto won/covered five of its last seven games.
— Raptors are 1-9 ATS in last ten road games.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Nuggets (41-21)
— Denver won 15 of its last 18 games.
— Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in last seven home games.
— Under is 4-1 in Denver’s last five games.

— Teams split last ten series games.
— Denver is 3-2 in last five road series games.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoop Trends for Thursday April 29
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:
Matchup: Golden State at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Warriors are 11-0 ATS (8.27 ppg) off a home loss in which Stephen Curry shot better than 50 percent from the arc.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:
Matchup: Dallas at Detroit (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Pistons are 0-14-3 ATS (-10.32 ppg) as a dog coming off a 10+ point win.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:
Matchup: Golden State at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Timberwolves are 10-0 OU (8.25 ppg) off a game as a favorite in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:
Matchup: New Orleans at Oklahoma City (9:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Thunder are 0-10-1 OU (-12.91 ppg) as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, April 29

NL games
Philadelphia (12-12) @ St Louis (12-12)
— Nola is 2-1, 2.84 in five starts.
— Phillies are 4-1 in his starts
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
— He is 5-2, 1.90 in seven starts vs St Louis.

— Phillies lost 11 of their last 17 games.
— Phillies are 4-8 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight road games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-24
— record in first 5 innings: 7-11-6

— Kim is 1-0, 4.15 in two starts.
— Cardinals are 2-0 in his starts
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0
— He gave up three runs in three IP at Philly April 17.

— Cardinals won four of their last six games.
— St Louis won five of last eight home games.
— Under 7-2-1 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 9-10-5

Cubs (10-14) @ Atlanta (12-12)
— Alzolay is 0-2, 5.00 in three starts.
— Cubs are 0-3 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He gave up one run in 4.2 IP in one start vs Atlanta.

— Cubs lost their last five games.
— Chicago is 2-7 on road.
— 15 of last 23 games stayed under the total.
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 9-13-2

— Wilson is 1-1, 6.00 in two starts (1-1).
— Braves are 1-1 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He is 1-0, 5.79 in two starts vs Chicago.

— Braves won five of their last seven games.
— Atlanta won last three home games.
— Over is 10-3 in their home games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-5

Dodgers (16-9) @ Milwaukee (14-10)
— Bauer is 2-0, 2.10 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 3-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0-2
— He is 2-1, 2.66 in three starts vs Milwaukee.

— Dodgers lost seven of their last ten games.
— Dodgers are 8-4 on the road.
— over 6-0 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 13-8-4

— Lauer is making his first ’21 start.
— He is 14-19, 4.75 in 57 games (54 starts)
— He is 5-0, 2.11 in seven starts vs Los Angeles.

— Brewers won 13 of their last 20 games.
— Milwaukee is 5-7 at home.
— under 8-5-1 last 14 games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 11-9-4

Colorado (9-15) @ Arizona (12-12)
— Senzatela is 0-2, 7.24 in his last three starts.
— Colorado is 1-4 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
— He is 3-6, 5.43 in 13 games (10 starts) vs Arizona, 2-4, 5.08 in 9 games (5 starts) here.

— Colorado won six of its last ten games.
— Rockies are 1-8 on the road.
— over 4-0 last four road games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-4

— Weaver is 1-2, 4.75 in four starts.
— Arizona is 2-2 in his starts
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3
— He is 1-2, 6.84 in 7 games (6 starts) vs Colorado.

— Arizona won seven of its last nine games.
— Arizona is 3-4 at home.
— over 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 12-11-1

AL games
Bronx (11-13) @ Baltimore (10-14)
— Montgomery is 0-1, 6.32 in his last three starts.
— New York is 3-1 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3
— He is 3-1, 2.51 in eight starts vs Baltimore.

— New York won six of its last nine games.
— New York is 7-6 on the road.
— under 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 2-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-11-3

— Lopez is 1-2, 6.92 in three starts.
— Baltimore is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He is 4-0, 2.97 in six games (4 starts) vs New York.

— Orioles lost 14 of their last 21 games.
— Baltimore is 7-4 on the road, 3-10 at home.
— under is 7-1 in their last eight home games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 9-11-4

Oakland (15-10) @ Tampa Bay (13-12)
— Bassitt is 2-0, 3.17 in his last three starts.
— A’s are 3-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He is 0-1, 1.86 in two games (1 start) vs Tampa Bay.

— A’s lost three of their last four games.
— Oakland won seven its last ten road games.
— Under is 9-3 in their last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-25
— record in first 5 innings: 11-10-4

— Yarbrough is 0-2, 5.27 in five games (3 starts).
— He allowed one run in 10.2 IP, in his last two games.
— They may/may not use an opener.
— He gave up five runs in 13.2 IP (1-0, 3.29), in three relief stints vs Oakland.

— Tampa Bay won three of its last five games.
— Rays are 6-7 at home.
— last five games stayed under
— scored run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-6

Seattle (13-12) @ Houston (13-11)
— Kikuchi is 0-1, 5.70 in four starts.
— Seattle is 2-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 0-2, 6.46 in six starts vs Houston.

— Seattle lost five of its last six games.
— Seattle is 6-9 on the road.
— under 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 6-25
— record in first 5 innings: 8-15-2

— Garcia is 0-1, 4.00 in two starts.
— Astros are 0-2 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— Astros won six of their last seven games.
— Astros are 7-6 at home.
— over 6-3 last nine home games
— scored run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 11-10-3

Boston (16-9) @ Texas (10-15)
— Perez is 0-1, 5.71 in four starts.
— Red Sox are 3-1 in his starts.
— over 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 1-0, 4.91 in two starts vs Texas.

— Boston is 4-1 in its last five games.
— Red Sox are 8-1 on the road.
— under last three games
— scored run in first inning: 6-25
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-5

— Gibson is 2-0, 0.86 in his last three starts.
— Texas is 3-1 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 2-4, 3.63 in seven starts vs Boston.

— Texas lost six of its last eight games.
— Texas is 4-8 at home.
— under 9-3 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 11-11-3

Detroit (8-16) @ White Sox (12-10)
— Mize is 1-2, 5.23 in four starts.
— Detroit is 2-2 in his starts.
— under 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 0-0, 4.66 in two starts against the White Sox.

— Boyd is 2-2, 2.08 in five starts.
— Detroit is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He is 4-8, 5.16 in 16 starts against the White Sox.

— Detroit lost 10 of its last 12 games.
— Detroit is 4-7 on the road.
— under 10-1 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-11 on road
— record in first 5 innings: 3-8 on road

— Rodon is 3-0, 0.95 in three starts.
— Chicago is 3-0 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 2-2, 6.82 in six starts vs Detroit.

— Cease is 0-0, 4.15 in four starts.
— Chicago is 1-3 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-2
— He is 5-0, 2.86 in five starts vs Detroit.

— Chicago won six of its last eight games.
— White Sox are 6-4 at home.
— under 7-3 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 8-22
— record in first 5 innings: 15-2-5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, April 29

Trend Report

NY Yankees @ Baltimore
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games at home

Oakland @ Tampa Bay
Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home

Philadelphia @ St. Louis
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Seattle @ Houston
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Seattle is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Detroit @ Chi White Sox
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Chi White Sox is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit

Chi Cubs @ Atlanta
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home

Boston @ Texas
Boston
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Boston

Detroit @ Chi White Sox
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Chi White Sox is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit

Colorado @ Arizona
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road
Arizona
Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 10 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

951PHILADELPHIA -952 ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS are 243-206 SU (81.3 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start since 1996.

953CHICAGO CUBS -954 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 5-16 SU (-12.6 Units) after a game they hit 4 or more home runs in the last 3 seasons.

955LA DODGERS -956 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 0-11 SU (-12.1 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs in the last 3 seasons.

957COLORADO -958 ARIZONA
COLORADO is 10-27 SU (-22 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start in the last 3 seasons.

959NY YANKEES -960 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 4-14 SU (-12.3 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the current season.

961OAKLAND -962 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 11-3 SU (9.1 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better in the current season.

963SEATTLE -964 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 137-102 SU (24.8 Units) off 2 straight home wins against division rivals since 1996.

965BOSTON -966 TEXAS
BOSTON is 9-0 SU (9 Units) in road games in all games in the current season.

965BOSTON -966 TEXAS
BOSTON is 9-0 SU (9.3 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

969DETROIT -970 CHI WHITE SOX
DETROIT is 7-0 SU (7 Units) in road games as an underdog of +200 or more over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends for Thursday April 29
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Boston at Texas (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Red Sox are 13-0 SU since Aug 01, 2017 as a favorite off a game as a dog in which Rafael Devers had multiple hits.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Astros are 0-6 SU since Sep 23, 2020 in the last game of a series as a favorite when playing a team that has a worse record.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (1:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Orioles are 8-0-1 OU (2.39 ppg) since Sep 08, 2019 at home off a home loss by 5+ runs.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockies are 0-10 SU since Jun 23, 2019 when Antonio Senzatela starts as a road dog when their bullpen gave up runs in each of their last two games.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

49NY ISLANDERS -50 NY RANGERS
NY ISLANDERS are 2-10 ATS (-9.6 Units) in road games against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game in the current season.

51PHILADELPHIA -52 NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 1-13 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game in the current season.

53DETROIT -54 CAROLINA
CAROLINA is 5-8 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the current season.

55PITTSBURGH -56 WASHINGTON
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more in the current season.

57BUFFALO -58 BOSTON
BUFFALO is 7-34 ATS (-30.4 Units) off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival in the last 3 seasons.

59FLORIDA -60 CHICAGO
FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games in the current season.

61CALGARY -62 EDMONTON
CALGARY is 4-10 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the current season.

75DALLAS -76 TAMPA BAY
DALLAS are 8-23 ATS (-18.4 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the current season.

77VANCOUVER -78 TORONTO
VANCOUVER is 22-14 ATS (16.3 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

79ST LOUIS -80 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (14.3 Units) in home games against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Thursday, April 29

Trend Report
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Buffalo @ Boston
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Detroit @ Carolina
Detroit
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Philadelphia @ New Jersey
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Jersey's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

NY Islanders @ NY Rangers
NY Islanders
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 6 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Islanders's last 17 games on the road
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
NY Rangers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Washington
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games when playing Washington
Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Vancouver @ Toronto
Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Vancouver's last 14 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Vancouver
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Vancouver

Florida @ Chicago
Florida
Florida is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games on the road
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Florida

St. Louis @ Minnesota
St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
St. Louis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

Calgary @ Edmonton
Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton
Edmonton is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Edmonton's last 12 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Apr 29 '21, 7:08 PM in 58m
NHL | Penguins vs Capitals
Play on: OVER 5½ -113

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Penguins/Capitals over 5½ -113

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover Apr 29 '21, 7:08 PM in 58m
NHL | Islanders vs Rangers
Play on: Islanders +113 at linepros

Sure going 7-2 in their last nine games looks good. That's what the Rangers have done. Consider this though: The Rangers played the three bottom teams in the East - Sabres, Flyers and Devils - in eight of those nine games. The one matchup that didn't involve any of those three teams was against the Islanders. The Rangers lost that game, 6-1.
Rarely did the Rangers have to play strong hockey for an entire 60 minutes during this span facing such weak competition. The Sabres have the fewest points in the NHL, while the Devils are tied for the second-fewest points. The Rangers are averaging four goals per game in their last 10 games. Note, however, the Flyers give up the most goals per game in the NHL. The Devils rank third-from-the-bottom defensively and the Sabres are the fourth-worst defensive team. The Islanders, by contrast, have the No. 3 defense in the NHL giving up 2.3 goals a game. I don't see the Rangers maintaining their high-scoring ways going against a much superior and well-coached opponent. The Islanders are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. All three of these defeats, however, came to the powerful Capitals, two of which were 1-0 losses. Washington is tied for the fourth-most points in the NHL. The oddsmaker is anticipating a tight game with the Rangers opening a small favorite. The Rangers have a league-low .211 winning percentage in one-goal games. They also have lost 18 of the past 26 times to the Islanders. So I'll take the Islanders at this plus price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy Apr 29 '21, 7:08 PM in 58m
NHL | Islanders vs Rangers
Play on: UNDER 5½ -117

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between the Islanders and Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.
With the Islanders coming off three straight losses and facing a Rangers squad that has won three games in a row, scoring 13 goals over that stretch, I look for the Isles to tighten things up here, noting that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six meetings here at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers are rolling offensively but let's take into consideration the recent slate of opponents they've faced; since wrapping up a two-game set against these same Isles on Long Island - with both games staying 'under' the total - they've gone against the Devils (four games), Islanders, Flyers (two games) and Sabres (two games). So eight of their last nine games have come against non-playoff teams, all of which I would consider among the worst defensive teams in the entire league. As I mentioned, the Isles are coming off three straight losses including a 1-0 loss to the Capitals last time out. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times they've played on the road off a shutout loss away from home, with those games totaling an average of just 2.4 goals. The 'under' is 21-7 with the Isles on the road coming off a road loss of any kind over the last two seasons, with those contests reaching an average total of just 4.8 goals. Of course, the 'under' has been a money maker with the Isles on the road all season, as they've posted a ridiculous 4-19-1 o/u mark with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. Take the under (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Apr 29 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
NBA | Mavs vs Pistons
Play on: Pistons +9 -110 at Draft Kings

Free Pick on Pistons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Apr 29 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
NBA | Nets vs Pacers
Play on: Nets -8½ -107 at Draft Kings

1* on Nets -8½ -107

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Apr 29 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
NBA | Mavs vs Pistons
Play on: Pistons +8½ -101 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Detroit Pistons +8.5
The Detroit Pistons have remained competitive here down the stretch even though they don't have much to play for. The Pistons are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off an upset win by 14 points over the Atlanta Hawks. They have had the last two days off and should be ready to give the Dallas Mavericks a run tonight. They are missing some players, but Dallas has injury questions of its own. Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Richardson are all questionable tonight. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS after two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season. Dallas is 1-11 ATS when playing against a team that wins between 25% and 40% of its games this season. Give me the Pistons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Apr 29 '21, 7:20 PM in 1h
MLB | CHC vs ATL
Play on: OVER 9 -109

Free Total Annihilator On Cubs vs Braves over 9 -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Apr 29 '21, 7:40 PM in 1h
MLB | Dodgers vs Brewers
Play on: Dodgers -1½ -109 at Draft Kings

FREE PICK - Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-109)
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 955
I will gladly take my chances with the Dodgers on the -1.5 run line in Thursday's series opener against the Brewers. This just has blowout written all over it. LA will have a massive edge on the mound in this one, as they send out one of the best pitchers in the game in Trevor Bauer against Eric Lauer.
Bauer has been every bit as good as advertised. He's got a 2.53 ERA and 0.656 WHIP in 5 starts. The only thing that is hurting him is the ball leaving the park. He's only given up 9 ER and has allowed 6 HR.
As for Lauer, he's making his first start of 2021. In his only two starts in 2020, he gave up 13 runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in 6 2/3 innings. I just don't see him pitching well at all here against this loaded Dodgers lineup. Give me Los Angeles -1.5 (-109)!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers Apr 29 '21, 8:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Blues vs Wild
Play on: Wild -145 at Mirage

The set-up: St. Louis has won three straight, but after hammering the Avalanche 5-3 and then 4-1, followed by a 4-3 victory here two nights ago, I think the Blues will finally stumble here in this difficult venue. Previous to the setback in their last game, the Wild had won seven straight.
The pick: Minnesota averages 3.19 GPG, and it allows 2.63. St. Louis averages 2.91 GPG, while conceding 3.06. With less than a dozen games to go until the end of the season, and with immediate revenge as a primary motivating factor, I absolutely believe that at this price, the Minnesota Wild are worth a second look in this particular spot.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Wild.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price Apr 29 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Bucks vs Rockets
Play on: Bucks -12½ -110 at BetCris

Dave's Thursday Free Play:
1* on Milwaukee Bucks -12.5
The Key: The Houston Rockets are just 4-37 SU & 11-30 ATS in their last 41 games overall. They have been decimated by injuries and it isn't getting any better here down the stretch. They have lost 5 in a row with blowout losses to the Nuggets by 13, the Jazz by 23 and the Heat by 22. And the Bucks should have no problem putting them away by 13 points or more tonight as they come into this game fully healthy. Take Milwaukee.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson Apr 29 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Warriors vs Wolves
Play on: Warriors -3½ -110 at Mirage

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Golden State @ Minnesota (8:10 PM EST)
Play On: Golden State -3 1/2
The Golden State Warriors travel to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves on Thursday night. Golden State is 31-31 SU overall this year while Minnesota comes in with a 19-44 SU overall record on the season. Golden State is 4-0 ATS last 4 games after a SU loss. Golden State is 4-1 ATS last 5 games after an ATS loss. Golden State is 6-2 ATS last 8 games after a double digit SU home loss. Minnesota is 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games after a SU win. Golden State is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Golden State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Apr 29 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Warriors vs Wolves
Play on: Wolves +5½ -110 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Wolves +5½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Apr 29 '21, 9:08 PM in 2h
NHL | Flames vs Oilers
Play on: Flames +124 at linepros

1* Free Pick on Flames +124

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Apr 29 '21, 9:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Pelicans vs Thunder
Play on: Pelicans -9 -110 at Mirage

1 Dimer on Pelicans -9 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Apr 29 '21, 9:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Raptors vs Nuggets
Play on: Nuggets -3 -107 at linepros

Free Play on Nuggets -3 -107

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Apr 29 '21, 9:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Pelicans vs Thunder
Play on: Pelicans -9 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on Pelicans -9 -110