Friday 4/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/30/21 April 30, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.



RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Warrens Candy Man; 3-Atomic Drop; 6-Rocks and Salt

Forecast: State-bred maidens meet over nine furlongs on grass in the Friday opener with at least half the field having a legitimate look. Atomic Drops shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for a barn that has good stats with this angle, and in a race without much pace he could find himself as the controlling speed. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding has the pedigree to handle the trip and a gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. Based on his sprint speed figures the son of Mucho Macho Man is a strong fit. Warrens Candy Man is reequipped with blinkers, but we doubt the change will have much effect on his form. The son of Clubhouse Ride projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip and his one-paced grinding style should be more effective at this longer trip. Rocks and Salt has trained well for his comeback and may be a bit better type this time around. He will race without blinkers for the first time, so we will toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Big Treat; 5-Drizella

Forecast: Big Treat has trained like a nice filly and appears fit and ready to win the first baby race of the season. The R. Hanson-trained daughter of Mr. Big has displayed sharp speed but also has shown the ability to finish, so with good racing luck we are expecting her to perform to expectations. Drizella also has shown good zip in her a.m. preps and hails from a barn that does very well with 2-year-olds. This daughter of the first crop stallion Stanford breezed smartly at the OBS March Sale (10 seconds flat) and her recent gate work (:47.1hg) on April 19 was good although second best with a stable mate. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we will have extra tickets keying Big Treat on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Paynter’s Love; 5-Flag Salute; 7-Circle of Honor

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler for sophomore fillies does not offer much to work with. Circle of Honor and Paynter’s Love, two-three finishers in a similar affair earlier this month, are major players again and both are lightly-raced with room to improve. You can also toss in the class-dropping Flag Salute on your ticket as well though this will be her first start on dirt and her pedigree suggests she should be much more comfortable on grass. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Casse Belle

Forecast: Cassie Belle has so far in her career preferred to finish second or third (eight times) than win (twice), but she appears to have found a field she should be able to handle. Always partial to the Santa Anita turf course, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit has enough tactical speed to always be within range and will have every chance to exert her superiority when the pressure is turned on. J. J. Hernandez stays aboard and knows her well, so at 2-1 on the morning line she is a win play and rolling exotic single in this starter’s allowance turf mile for fillies and mares.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Theultimatepraise; 6-Sir Flatter

Forecast: In a below par race for the level, we will take a shot with the Bay Area shipper Theultimatepraise on top. He is a first-time-blinkers play with steadily rising speed figures and a good inside post, and if sent from the bell could inherit the role as the controlling speed. You should also toss in Sir Flatter, who has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and a pedigree that suggests he will improve at this longer trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:47 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Beaudacious

Forecast: Beaudacious is a six-race maiden with three runner-up performances on his resume. Today may be his day to graduate in a soft state-bred affair over nine furlongs on grass. With speed figures that are better than par for the level and with enough tactical speed to ensure a good stalking, trouble-free trip, the son of Karakontie picks up “in form” rider K. Desormeaux and should have no difficulties handling this longer trip. We will make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-She’s a Dime; 3-Midnight Jamboree

Forecast: She’s a Dime stretches out in her 18th career start and if she is ever going to be successful two-turning it will be in her first attempt. Clearly the controlling speed if she wants to be, the daughter of Eskendereya is a prior winner over the Santa Anita main track and will be tough to catch if front-running tactics are employed under bug boy A. Centeno, who knows her well. Midnight Jamboree projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and will have every chance given the likely race flow. Nosed out vs. similar in her most recent outing when more than eight lengths clear of the others, the W. Spawr-trained mare just earned (by far) a career top speed figure and not much morel will be needed today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Armour Plate; 4-Midnight Mystery

Forecast: Midnight Mystery did not break well and was always outrun vs. tougher foes last month but today drops for the money run following a couple of extra sharp recent workouts and should be primed for a top effort over a course he has proven he can win on. The lightly-raced gelding projects to part of the pace throughout and at this level should be able to produce a winning punch when called upon. Armour Plate is just 1-for-23 in his career but at least the win was accomplished over the local turf course. He will enjoy a ground-saving, second flight trip and with clear sailing through the lane figures to be heard from late. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we will have extra tickets keying Midnight Mystery on top.

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Jeff Siegel's Oaks/Derby Day Analysis - April 30/May 1, 2021 April 30, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. This race-by-race analysis zeroes in on the Friday, April 30, 2021 13-race card on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Jeff Siegel's Churchill Downs Analysis and Wagering Strategies
Friday, April 30, 2021

RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Favorite Sin; 2-Pop a Choc

Forecast: The Oaks Day card opener is a one-turn mile affair for first-level allowance fillies and mares that finds the main contention drawn inside. Favorite Sin has run well on the lead or from a second-flight stalking position so if she breaks cleanly regular rider C. Lanerie can assess the early pace flow and formulate a strategy. Fresh from earning a career top Beyer speed figure (and one that is par for this level), the daughter of Awesome Again likely has further improvement in her, and after a six week break that features a healthy work pattern in the interim the I. Wilkes-trained filly should fire her best shot. Pop a Choc makes her third start off a layoff and seems to be rounding back to her best form. The daughter of Bernardini has numbers from last summer that are good enough to win this condition and her stalking style seems ideally suited for this trip.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Front Street; 3-Kizzy B; 6-Seaside Retreat

Forecast: Here is another one-turn mile event, this one for maiden fillies and mares. Seaside Retreat, in the frame in all four starts and making her first start since early January, has trained steadily in recent weeks for Shug (solid stats with layoff runners) and will race with blinkers for the first time. She is not particularly fast on speed figures – none of these are - but could easily be better than shown and may have a higher ceiling than most of these. We will give her a slight edge on top. Kizzy B is a nine-race maiden and therefore not one to trust, but for whatever reason she has been routing most of her career despite evidence that suggests she is more comfortable around one turn. She makes a significant jockey change to I. Ortiz, Jr. and projects to be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance. Front Street may wind up being the controlling speed, and if not policed she could get brave and take her foes a long way. She earned a number three races back at this distance that, if repeated, is good enough to win. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Australasia; 5-Zainalarab; 7-Amalfi Princess

Forecast: Australasia is an unbeaten Louisiana-bred filly tackling open company today for the first time, so we will find out just how good she is. Based strictly on speed figures. The daughter of Sky Kingdom is talented and versatile, having won sprinting and routing and on the lead or from a stalking position. The B. Cox-trained filly catches a field without too much early heat, so we suspect she will draft into a good pace-stalking position and then take on all challengers from the quarter pole home. Zainalarab won her only start last summer at Belmont Park in good style but then was stopped on. She returns for C. Brown (superb stats with layoff runners) with a work tab that should have her fit enough, so the daughter of War Front – a $1 million yearling purchase – is the likely choice and the one to beat. Amalfi Princess ran well to be third in the Beaumont S.-G3 at Keeneland earlier this month while earning a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today should at least hit the board and maybe do better than just that. She is a perfect one-for-one over the Churchill Downs main track and most likely will settle just behind the leaders and then have dead aim when it counts. In a tough, competitive race for the level, these are the three we will be using in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Australasia.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-American West; 3-Illiogami; 10-Another Woman

Forecast: American West won her debut last fall, so we know she can fire fresh, and then in her second start she finished a good but distant second to the high-quality filly Malathaat in the Tempted Stakes before being given the remainder of the year off. She makes her 3-year-old debut in this allowance optional claimer for C. Brown (a spectacular 29% with layoffs) while adding Lasix and drawing nicely inside in this middle distance main track affair for 3-year-old fillies. Most of her sire’s get improve with age and distance, so we suspect this $925,000 yearling purchase by Curlin will do just that. Illiogami earned a strong speed figure – tops in this field – when breaking her maiden from off the pace over this trip at Keeneland last time out and if she can build on that effort today she will be the one to fear most. Another Woman is drawn a bit farther outside in post position 10 than we would prefer, but after breaking her maiden in her second career start at Gulfstream Park over seven furlongs last month she stretches out and adds blinkers while picking up J. Rosario. The daughter of Broken Vow is a strong fit based on her sprint figures so if she can negotiate a decent trip the W. Mott-trained filly certainly could be capable of winning on the one-level raise.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:43 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Temple; 5-Ramsey Solution; 10-Spooky Channel

Forecast: Temple has faced graded stakes competition in each of his last three starts and today tries easier company with a class drop to the third level allowance ranks. He is also shortening to a middle distance after a series off marathon events, and we suspect this turn back in trip (along with class drop) will bring out his best. Drawn comfortably inside and switching to J. Rosario, the M. Maker-trained colt will have every chance to regain his winning form. Ramsey Solution, unbeaten in two prior starts over the sand-based Churchill Downs grass course, does not necessarily need the lead to win but is especially difficult to beat when he is able to make the running. Successful in five of nine career starts, the son of Real Solution is eligible for this race only because he was entered for the $80,000 tag, so with recent numbers that are both fast and consistent the W. Ward-trained gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Spooky Channel also is eligible due to his entry for the listed claiming price and always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent in various stakes races. He has been primarily a marathoner but can act at this shorter nine furlong trip, and it must be noted that he was victorious in his only prior outing over the local turf course in a middle distance affair that produced a career top speed figure. We will use all three in our rolling exotics with a slight preference to Temple, but in a highly-contentious affair you may find the need to spread a little deeper.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:26 ET Grade: X
Single: 6-Maxfield

Forecast: Maxfield had his five-race unbeaten winning streak snapped when he finished third without mishap at even money in the Santa Anita Handicap-G1 in early March, but he did equal his career top Beyer speed figure when going down by two lengths to Idol, so we must conclude that he simply got outrun. This year’s edition of the Alysheba S.-G2 is a considerably easier assignment over a main track we know he likes (he is perfect in two starts), and the switch back to his original regular jockey J. Ortiz, Jr. won hurt, either. There will be no value to be found at or near his morning line of 4/5, so our strategy is to use him a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Aunt Pearl

Forecast: Aunt Pearl makes her sophomore debut in her first outing since concluding her unbeaten 2-year-old season with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 at Keeneland last November. Victorious in all three of her starts in gate-to-wire fashion, the daughter of Lope de Vegas appears to have trained well enough to be fit and ready for a barn that excels with comebackers (25%), and with a projected race flow that should allow her to easily gain her preferred trip the Irish-bred filly will be an extremely short price to pick up where she left off. She is another odds-on favorite that probably will win but will be too short to play, so we will use her as rolling exotic single and then simply enjoy the show.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Envoutante; 2-Shedaresthedevil; 3-Dunbar Road

Forecast: We are hoping for a mild upset in the 2021 edition of the La Troienne S.-G1, an outstanding middle distance main track event for top class fillies and mares. Envoutante, fourth in the Azeri S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park last time out but beaten less than three lengths, is perfect in two prior outings at Churchill Downs, including a six-length romp in the Fall City S.-G2 last fall that earned a career top Beyer figure (one that equals the best produced by race-favorite Shedaresthedevil). She is daughter of Uncle Mo listed at 6-1 on the morning line, and from the rail she is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. If she is ever going to be good enough to win a race of this quality, today will be the day. Shedaresthedevil, winner of last year’s Kentucky Oaks and a perfect three-for-three over the Churchill Downs main track, returned off a five month layoff and held off Letruska to win the Azeri S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park last month, and then saw the form franked when Letruska returned to beat Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver in the Apple Blossom S.-G1 earlier this month. Clearly, she is the one to beat. Though subjected to hard, taxing effort in the Azeri, the daughter of Daredevil has been given ample time to recover (more than six weeks) and her recent workouts indicate she spot on for another big effort. Dunbar Road, a closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff G1 when last seen last fall, has a history of firing fresh and is a prior stakes winner over this track and distance in her only previous appearance. You have to use her somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:04 ET Grade: B+
Use: 8-Kalypso; 10-Dayoutoftheoffice; 12-Caramel Swirl

Forecast: Dayoutoftheoffice won her first three starts last year as a potential champion but could not quite see out the trip when weakening late to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 in her first try around two-turns. She returns sprinting – this is what she wants to do – and if ready seems likely to outclass this field in an excellent renewal of the Eight Bells S.-G2 for sophomore fillies. The recent workouts – including a :58 flat five furlong drill at Keeneland last Friday - would appear to indicate that the daughter of Into Mischief has retained all of her speed and is ready to use it. The B. Baffert California shipper Kalypso is not nearly as fast on pure numbers as the favorite but like Dayoutoftheoffice is back sprinting where she belongs and was a graded stakes winner this winter at Santa Anita at this exact seven furlong distance. We are expecting the daughter of Brody’s Cause to run a career top today, but it remains to be seen if that will be good enough. Caramel Swirl is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and at that price is worth tossing in as saver or a backup in rolling exotic play. A big figure maiden winner at Keeneland earlier this month over seven furlongs, the W. Mott-trained daughter of Union Rags will have clear sailing outside and could be dangerous if held up early and allowed to run late. It has taken some good fillies to beat her and perhaps she is ready to finally beat a few good ones herself.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Fiya; 9-Diamond Oops; 10-Sombeyay

Forecast: Fiya is a perfect five-for-five sprinting on grass during his brief but brilliant career and the Maryland-bred gelding can pick up where he left off in December when winning a Claiming Crown turf dash in his typical gate-to-wire fashion. This is his toughest assignment to date – for the first time he will be facing non-restricted company – but based purely on speed figures the son of Friesan Fire is quick enough to make the lead and keep on going. His recent work tab should have him plenty fit enough. Sombeyay is a California shipper trained by P. Miller – is there anybody more skilled than this trainer with sprinters, turf or dirt? – and seems to represent the most dangerous of the stalkers/closers contingent. The son of Into Mischief missed by a neck to Gregorian Chant in the San Simeon S.-G3 last time out and then saw that one come back to win again over the weekend in a good overnight affair. Diamond Oops won this race when it was staged last September, doing so with a furious late kick over a course with give in the ground that may be quite like what he will encounter in this race. Reunited with “win rider” F. Geroux, the P. Biancone-trained gelding often rises to the occasion when the stakes are high, so it would not be surprising to see the son of Lookin At Lucky make some serious noise at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Travel Column; 10-Malathaat; 12-Search Results

Forecast: Travel Column, victorious in the Fair Grounds Oaks in visually pleasing style last month, has the type of tactical speed that usually ensures a trouble-free, pace-stalking trip in this year’s renewal of the Kentucky Oaks-G1. The B. Cox-trained daughter of Frosted is fast on numbers and has the pedigree to excel at today’s nine furlong trip, plus she is unbeaten in two starts over the Churchill Downs main track, including a win last fall in the Golden Rod S.-G2. We will give her a very slight edge on top. Malathaat probably was not completely cranked up when winning the recent Ashland S.-G1 in her first start since December but with that effort to tighten her up the daughter of Curlin should be primed and ready for a career top performance. She does not own an exceptional turn of foot but can grind away forever and as such should continue to develop as the distances increase. She is back with Johnny V., who won the Demoiselle S.-G2 on her at this nine furlong distance last December for trainer T. Pletcher. Search Results has not yet beaten anything close to the level of either Travel Column or Malathaat so far in her perfect three race career but did run two fifths of a second faster at the same distance on the same day as the colts did in the Wood Memorial S.-G2, so that alone makes her dangerous. The C. Brown-trained filly projects to be in a good pace-stalking position outside and have her chance to show she belongs with the big girls in the division.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Mintd; 8-More Than Usual; 9-Woke Up to Aces

Forecast: More Than Usual is fast on figures and good enough to win this second-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares with anything close to her highly impressive score two runs back at Fair Grounds. She wants to settle, get cover, and then produce a late kick and with that type of rider from F. Geroux the daughter of More Than Ready should be along in plenty of time. Mintd, away since July, returns for a stable that boasts superior stats with comebackers and this Irish-bred filly won her U.S. debut last year in her first start in 20 months so, yes, she can fire fresh. The B. Walsh-trained mare has done some good work leading up to this event, so we suspect she is extremely live and well-meant, especially with I. Ortiz, Jr. picking up the mount. Woke Up to Aces does not have the form to worry our top two picks but she will be lone speed and, for whatever it is worth, looked quite good demolishing a lesser field over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park last month. Two recent bullet workouts since that race catch the eye, so we will toss her in on a ticket or two for protection in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 13: Post: 7:00 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Magic Quest; 10-Played Hard; 11-Callen’s Charisma

Forecast: Callen’s Charisma was five lengths clear of the rest when a willing runner-up in her debut at Gulfstream Park last month and seems sure to improve for W. Mott with that effort behind her combined with the major jockey switch to J. Rosario. The daughter of Munnings is comfortably drawn outside and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Played Hard also was second in her only prior outing and is another that has every right to produce a forward move. She earned a bit better speed figure that on our top in her race Fair Grounds and maidens making their second start from this stable almost always step forward. Magic Quest missed by a neck in her debut at Keeneland earlier this month and is yet another that should be fitter and tighter today. The daughter of Nyquist exits a productive race and seems sure to flash the type of early speed that could make her the quickest in the field. These are the three we will be using equally in our rolling exotics.

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Jeff Siegel’s Churchill Downs Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, May 1, 2021

RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Cool Bobby; 5-Soros; 6-Sounion

Forecast: The opener is a challenging one-turn mile first-level allowance event for older horses that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We will try to get by using just three. Soros, a former stakes winner at this distance but away for more than a year, returns as a first-time gelding and is protected in a sign of confidence. If the lightly-raced son of Commissioner returns with his best stuff he can act with these. The work tab looks pretty decent for new trainer M. McCarthy, whose record with layoff runners is quite good (20% with a massive ROI). Sounion, another making his first start since being gelded, has never been worse than second in three prior starts over the Churchill Downs main track, and in a race that projects to have a comfortable early pace the son of Liam’s Map should find himself favorably placed while on or near the lead. He is fast enough on speed figures to handle this assignment and is reunited with “win rider” J. Leparoux. Cool Bobby was a 10 length winner over this track and distance (albeit on a sloppy surface) last fall and could inherit the role as the controlling speed if aggressively sent from the bell. He is another with recent speed figures that make him dangerous.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cadencia; 7-Cerulean; 10-Elle Est Forte; 11-Anthropology

Forecast: This grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares is another that offers several possibilities, some at very good prices. The strategy is to spread deeply and hope for a blowout payoff. First-time starter Cerulean is listed at 15-1 on the morning line but we suspect she is much better than that. A $180,000 OBS March sale purchase last year after breezing a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, she finally makes it to the post and is bred to do her best work going long on the lawn. From a capable outfit and with L. Saez in the saddle, the daughter of Air Force Blue recorded a bullet gate drill at Keeneland (47 2/5 seconds, fastest of 101 for the distance) two weeks ago that should have her fit and ready. Anthropology, pegged at 30-1 on the morning line, has the two-sprints-and-stretch-out angle on her resume, and after a couple of runs over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park finally gets a chance to perform on the surface for which she was bred (Karakontie). On pure speed figures she is fairly competitive, so we will definitely include her. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Cadencia, second vs. similar foes in her last three starts, two of which came as a strongly backed favorite. She lacks tactical speed and therefore may not be able to take full advantage of her inside draw, but with good racing luck and some help up front the T. Pletcher-trained filly will be heard from late. Elle Est Forte likewise has good recent from under these conditions and her speed figures are improving with every start. With another forward move today, the daughter of Flintshire will be right there.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:31 ET Grade: B+
Use: 5-Koolhaus; 7-Alejandro

Forecast: We will double this race in rolling exotic play, but the main push will be reserved for Koolhaus, a developing 3-year-old from the B. Cox barn. With two good sprints under his belt in stronger-the-par races for the level, the son of Nyquist should be much more comfortable with an extra furlong to work with today, and from a stable that hits at a remarkable 32% with stretch-out runners this 3-year-old colt projects to settle in the second flight before being turned loose from the quarter pole home. There is plenty of value to be found at or near his morning line of 9/2. Alejandro finished first in a maiden router at Fair Grounds last month and earned a good figure in doing so, but had his number taken down for causing interference, so he is back with maidens again today. He is a son of Curlin from a daughter of Rachel Alexandra, so much is expected, and this S. Asmussen-trained sophomore certainly appears headed in the right direction.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:04 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Salvator Mundi; 6-Hay Dakota; 9-Gun It

Forecast: This messy turf miler for second-level allowance older horses is another affair that offers several price chances. Gun It is listed at 10-1 on the morning line and offers a good gamble at that price. He has been winless since the fall of 2019 but has raced on grass only once in his career (a good third place finish in a similar allowance event at Kentucky Downs last September) and today picks up J. Rosario. The S. Asmussen-trained horse is solid on numbers and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip. Hay Dakota, at 8-1 on the morning line, is another “must use.” A two=time winner over the local lawn, the veteran gelding does his best work from off the pace and should have plenty of pace today to set compliment his style. Salvator Mundi is a shipper from California with credentials to be competitive off his best race. The son of Artie Schiller goes for the always-potent P. D’Amato/F. Prat combo (31%) and will have every chance from a mid-pack early position to wear down the leaders in the final furlong.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:36 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Who Took the Money; 5-Ghazaaly

Forecast: Ghazaaly is a progressive Ghostzapper colt with improving speed figures and is fresh from a nice maiden score at Keeneland last month. This is not a particularly strong first-level allowance event so with continued progression the T. Pletcher-trained colt should be capable of winning right back. Who Took the Money is undefeated in three starts – each of his wins have come against Louisiana-bred competition - and today he gets tested in open company. The speed figure he earned two races back at Fair Grounds will make him a very strong fit and arguably the potential favorite and one to beat. We should be able to survive and advance just using these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:14 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Got Stormy; 6-Blowout

Forecast: Blowout has a history of firing fresh and the C. Brown barn hits at 27% with layoff runners so we are expecting this English-bred mare to fire a big shot in her first outing since being nosed out in the Matriarch S.-G1 last November. She has generally been a front-running type but can stalk and pounce if the pace flow dictates, so F. Prat has the option of taking her back early if he so chooses. Got Stormy made hard work of it to win the Honey Fox S.-G3 in her most recent appearance in February and at age six with 27 races behind her she is probably not quite as good as she once was. Still, the M. Casse-trained mare always has to be respected. The pace should be quick and perhaps contested so her projected second flight, stalking position should have her in the proper position when called upon in the final furlong. We will use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Blowout on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 1:56 ET Grade: X
Single: 4-Gamine

Forecast: Gamine is listed as the 1/5 morning line favorite, and it will take something unforeseen for her to be upset in the Derby City Distaff S.-G1 at her preferred distance of seven furlongs. The B. Baffert-trained filly did not have to be anywhere near her best to win the Las Flores S.-G3 in her seasonal bow at Santa Anita last month by five lengths and should be expected to be even sharper and fitter today. She can easily establish the pace in a field that lacks another front-running type and then do what she pleases from there as a no value free bingo square for rolling exotic players.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 2:48 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Defunded; 5-Prevalence; 8-Dream Shake

Forecast: We are going to try to beat the 3-1 morning line favorite Jackie’s Warrior, who may not quite be the same colt that was so impressive and precocious last year. If you would feel more comfortable including him on your rolling exotic ticket, go ahead. Instead, we will focus on three talented 3-year-olds who are turning back from route races to a one-turn mile, a distance that they should be ideally suited for. Dream Shake should enjoy this shortened distance after finishing a willing but weakening third in the Santa Anita Derby. His debut sprint win was spectacular, so if he can duplicate that type of performance today he will be tough to beat. Recent workouts indicate the P. Eurton-trained colt is ready to bounce back in a big way. Defunded was highly impressive breaking his maiden two runs back and then wound up a distant fourth in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 in a race that he probably was not quite ready for. Back around one turn today, removing blinkers, and switching to I. Ortiz, Jr., the gelded son of Dialed In sports a bullet five furlong workout (:59 flat) since raced and looks capable of settling off the pace and then blasting home. Prevalence failed to stay nine furlongs when unplaced in the Wood Memorial S.-G2 last time out and was victimized by traffic most of the way, so we will toss that race out. If he can run back to either of his first two races, the B. Walsh-trained colt can act with these. He is 6-1 on the morning line and that seems about right.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Annex; 5-Du Jour; 13-Scarlett Sky

Forecast: Annex and Scarlett Sky know each other well – they were heads apart when Annex won the Cutler Bay S. at Gulfstream Park - and then ‘Sky returned to frank the form when winning the Transylvania S.-G3 at Keeneland last month. Both deserve to be well-backed again in this middle distance turf event restricted to 3-year-olds, with Scarlett Sky deserving a very slight nod on top in a race that has sufficient speed signed on to compliment his closing style. We will also toss in the B. Baffert-trained California invader Du Jour, a Temple City colt with rising numbers in each of four outings that include two recent dominating scores against lesser foes. Today we will find out what he is made of.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 4:31 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Mind Control; 5-Tap It to Win; 4-Flagstaff

Forecast: We are going to approach this race under the assumption that Whitmore has lost a step or two at age eight with 40 races of wear and tear behind him. The popular gelding may vulnerable again after failing as the favorite when twice beaten by C Z Rocket at Oaklawn Park in his two most recent outings. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is listed at 7/2 in this year’s renewal of the Churchill Downs S.-G1, and while that seems like a square price if you can get it, we will look elsewhere. Tap It to Win got a confidence-building win at Tampa Bay Downs in his comeback in late March and should be able to build on that effort today. In a field without intense early speed, the M. Casse-trained colt should be close up throughout and have every chance from a stalker’s position or maybe even on the front end if the situation presents itself. He is reunited with regular pilot J. Velasquez and appears primed for a career top performance. Flagstaff, pegged as the morning line favorite at 3-1, always is most effective in extended sprints, and after winning the Commonwealth S.-G3 last month at Keeneland he should be a live item right back, though it is puzzling that J. Rosario jumps off to ride Endorsed (listed at 12-1). Mind Control offers good middle-price value at 6-1 and is worth including as well. Four of his seven career wins have been accomplished over this seven furlong distance and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. the veteran son of Stay Thirsty projects to settle in the second flight and then be troublesome from the furlong pole to the wire.
*
*
RACE 11: Post: 5:27 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Colonial Liam; 4-Ivar

Forecast: This year’s Turf Classic-G1 is highly contentious, but two appear to stick out in the field of nine. Colonial Liam seeks his fourth straight stakes win and this lightly-raced 4-year-old, with just seven career starts, has room for further improvement as he develops and matures. The T. Pletcher-trained colt prefers to settle in the second flight and then blast home, and with regular jockey I. Ortiz, Jr. remaining aboard – he could have opted for Hollywood Derby-G1 winner Domestic Spending - the son of Colonel Liam looks capable of continuing his winning ways. Ivar, highly-impressive winning the Shadwell Turf Mile-G1 at Keeneland last fall and then a respectable fourth (beaten two lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile-G1 in November, returns off the bench for low percentage connections at a distance (nine furlongs) that he has never tried before. However, the Brazilian import was bred on Southern Hemisphere time and will not actually turn five until October, so we suspect this winner of five races from eight starts has plenty of improvement still in him. There are others on paper look dangerous, but we will try to survive and advance using just these two, with preference on top to Colonial Liam.
*
*

RACE 12: Post: 6:57 PT Grade: B+
Use: 14-Essential Quality; 15-Rock Your World; 12-Helium

Forecast: Here is the bottom line. We very much like Rock Your World to win this year’s Kentucky Derby and this undefeated son of Candy Ride will receive the bulk of our play both in the win pool and in our rolling exotics. Perfect in three starts and the earner of a triple-digit Beyer speed figure when winning the Santa Anita Derby-G1 in his first try on dirt, the J. Sadler-trained colt should be prominent throughout and perhaps even on the lead, just as he was in his most recent victory. However, ‘World was victorious from slightly off the pace in both his maiden win and in the Pasadena S., so the options are there for jockey J. Rosario to adjust to whatever race flow comes his way. Rock Your World is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and we see sufficient wagering value at or near that price. There are two other undefeated colts in the race, and they are at opposite ends of the wagering spectrum. Essential Quality, the 2-1 morning line favorite, is genuine, dependable, versatile, and must be respected, though he is not particularly imposing on speed figures. Helium (50-1) is considerably more dangerous than what the bare form shows in his Tampa Bay Derby-G2 win in a race in which he was forced to lose a considerable amount of ground throughout yet found the type of reserve energy when challenged in the final furlong that only good colts have. You can use all three in exactas and trifectas if you would like, along with other reasonable contenders such as Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie, and perhaps even Dynamic One, who at 20-1 should run a career top and may be able sneak in for at least a piece of it.
*
*
RACE 13: Post: 7:55 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Prime Factor; 7-One Fast Cat

Forecast: This first-level allowance extended sprint for 3-year-olds looks very much like a stakes race and in fact most of these will be competing in added money events in the near future. Prime Factor broke his maiden like a future star sprinting in his debut but then disappointed in a pair subsequent graded stakes races around two turns. Freshened, backing up in trip and adding Lasix for the first time, the son of Quality Road still has a chance to be a decent sort and this race may confirm out suspicion that he is best suited to sprint at this stage of his career. If so, the T. Pletcher-trained colt will be tough to beat. One Fast Cat is progressing nicely for W. Ward, winning his debut over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park in good style and then finishing a close third (beaten less than a length) in a strong allowance sprint at Keeneland last month. The son of Fast Anna switches to J. Rosario, shows a bullet workout since raced, and seems likely to continue his improving pattern. At 5-1 on the morning line, he is a major player. These are the two we will be including in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Prime Factor.
*
*

RACE 14: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Happy Hepo

Forecast: Happy Hepo did not make it the races until June of his 3-year-old season, and after flashing excellent speed before fading to wind up a distant fourth the son of American Pharoah has taken almost a year to make it back to the post. His recent workouts at Santa Anita have been superb – he has been showing superior speed while proving best over some talented workmates - so whatever the issue he had in his debut at Los Alamitos appears to have been corrected. F. Prat taking the call (38% when he hooks up with this barn) and we highly doubt that the B. Baffert-trained colt was put on a plane to Kentucky to be given a race. At 6-1 on the morning line, he is a win play and rolling exotic single to close out a glorious afternoon of racing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday, April 30: Frank Carulli's Stronach 5 Picks April 28, 2021 | By Frank Carulli
LEG A // PIMLICO // RACE 8 (4:34PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

DALTON, second in back-to-back 6F stakes as a 2-year-old, is clearly the one to beat if ready for his seasonal debut, but it's anybody's race if he doesn't win, so we're going 4-deep on the ticket.


LEG B // GULFSTREAM // RACE 9 (4:48PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 7 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

JAZZY T took serious money and set the pace in a longer turf route before tiring in her debut. Her dam, Very Very, finished first or second in 9 of 24 starts on the turf. MARICOPA earned a competitive speed figure for a higher claiming price three starts back on soft footing, then ran second in a pair of follow-up 7F dirt sprints.


LEG C // PIMLICO // RACE 9 (5:10PM ET) // CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)

NAUTICAL NATURE, overmatched in his last two starts on the main track, led to the stretch on a 'good' turf in the fall and can make good use of his speed in this spot. DAYSTRIKE couldn't break through at the $5,000/nw3 level on dirt, but he could awaken with a 19/3-2-5 turf record and nearly $100,000 in earnings. TALE OF E DUBAI finished 1-2 in 23 of 47 starts but he's 1-7 on grass and probably will be an underlay.


LEG D // SANTA ANITA // RACE 3 (5:15PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 MILE (DIRT)

CIRCLE OF HONOR dueled for a half-mile with the winning favorite, then re-engaged for the stretch drive after he relinquished the lead. He held to finish a clear second, earning top billing in here. CURIOUS INJI, working well for his return from a 3-month layoff, stalked and faded in his first main-track try at 6-1/2F. The winner of that race came back to romp in a one mile starter allowance.


LEG E // GOLDEN GATE // RACE 3 (5:30PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)

SPACE ODESSEY tracked stretch-out sprinter Stormin Galileo while 3-wide, came under a hard drive on the turn, then surged late to finish second. That being said, use a pair of stretch-out sprinters trying turf for the first time. The dam of heavily-bet main track entrant THEY'RE GRREAT was 1-3 on grass with a 6F starter allowance romp, while the sire of HEFTY GARCIA was a multiple graded stakes-winning router.


SUGGESTED $1 STRONACH 5 TICKET

Leg A: 1, 6, 7, 8
Leg B: 6, 10
Leg C: 3, 7, 8
Leg D: 6, 7
Leg E: 2, 4, 6
COST: $144

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks: Friday's Kentucky Oaks April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
To help you handicap Friday’s tradition-rich Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the data for the fillies racing for the lilies. And when you bet with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet for the Kentucky Oaks, receive up to a $10 Money-Back Special (https://member.xb-online.com/KYOaks21MBS) if your win bet finishes second or third.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

KENTUCKY OAKS // CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 11 (5:51PM ET)

#12 Search Results // 31%W // 46%P // 56%S
#6 Travel Column // 14%W // 34%P // 45%S
#10 Malathaat // 12%W // 23%P // 32%S
#14 Millefeuille// 8%W // 19%P // 24%S
#4 Crazy Beautiful // 8%W // 13%P // 32%S
#3 Clairiere // 5%W // 13%P // 28%S
#5 Pass the Champagne // 3%W // 11%P // 26%S
#8 Moraz // 3%W // 9%P // 14%S
#1 Pauline’s Pearl // 3%W // 6%P // 8%S
#2 Maracuja // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S
#7 Ava’s Grace // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S *SCRATCHED*
#9 Coach // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S
#11 Will’s Secret // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S
#13 Competitive Speed // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Charles Town - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#6 Ortinola
Dropper tried better in the only local race, and she seems likely to be able to get past these late in the lane. Wouldn't want too much shorter than the ML offering.


#1 Devilish Beauty
Reliable underneath type wouldn't surprise with a win here, but her baseline run probably finds one or two others a bit too good for her tonight.


#4 Secret Castle
Forward player finished just behind 'Beauty when they both caught that short-field romping winner, and she has a little bit of versatility to settle off the splits if someone wants to take the initiative early.


Race Summary
Ortinola might have a bit sharper finishing punch on the cutback tonight, and one of her better recent efforts would be good enough with this group.


Charles Town - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Littlebitalily
She seems at her best when she finds the front, but she has had a bit of past success from just off the pace. She looks like the right one to use to try to beat the chalk.


#3 Union Song
Chalk will give the top choice a decent head start, but her recent form has come with some better groups at Laurel and she can be tough here at an underlaid number.


#4 Super Malibu
She was an easy winner on the front end when trying two turns for the first time, and while this step up might make her a bit of a reach on top, she might be good enough to land a piece of this at a price.


Race Summary
Littlebitalily has some positional pace and may be good enough to handle the likely chalk, as she owns some recent races that stack up well in this local debut.


Charles Town - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#7 Marylander
Likely short price to close out the night, he brings recent Laurel form to this one that seems better than what the locals have to offer. Should handle these.


#4 Envision Success
He rolled against an easier group last time out, and he was able to hold decent form for a bit in the past, easing some concerns about whether he can run back to that last one.


#8 Bellows
Reliable underneath type goes first off the claim, and maybe a change of scenery will give him the little nudge he needs to get over the top.


Race Summary
Marylander should find this local crew to his liking, and he should be able to find a decent spot tracking the pace. Improved form for the new team should make him tough here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Freehold - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#3 ALLY WAY CAST
Couldn't get past odds-on winner, today's Best Bet.


#4 BAD DAY BLACK ROCK
Good late foot to finish behind 'Ally', price attached.


#6 LIONHEAD
Just missed in faster division of split race, knows how to win.


Race Summary
Ally Way Cast followed the sudden burst of the 3-to-5 winner and battled gamely through the stretch to miss by one length. He should live up to favoritism in this spot. Play 3-4 and 3-6 exactas.


Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#4 SKYWAY BILLY
Visually impressive in latest, should sit dream trip, taken to repeat.


#8 WISE IMAGE
Good first gear, 20 wins, Napolitano's choice.


#5 RON BAKARDI
Rode pocket to victory, rallies onto exotic tickets.


Race Summary
Skyway Billy tracked the dueling favorites, angled 3-wide on the final turn and pulled away in a manner that suggests he can repeat on the class rise. His versatility comes in handy, too, in a speed-laden field. Play 4-5 and 4-8 exactas.


Meadowlands - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 STEUBEN HANOVER
Projects ideal trip, moves outside in for third start at Big M.


#4 KENZIESKY HANOVER
Chased odds-on fave through fast splits before fading.


#2 JUMPSHOT
Led at stretch call, held for minor awards for top trot barn in Canada.


Race Summary
Steuben Hanover rallied into a :56.4 middle half and finished third in his second start locally. He moves inside and gets ample pace flow to run at again. Play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Santa Anita - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 Cassie Belle
Has taken on much strong company and should be able to handle these; comes in off an even second against open company and Hernandez has had good luck aboard her with a win and two seconds.


#6 Colombian Gold
Gave way from early efforts and seems to do better when she stalks; likely to be that kind of trip today.


#5 Kleen Karma
Was a closing second in her last turf effort and has been on the board in her last three grass appearances; capable of a solid late run.


Race Summary
Cassie Belle can be close up from the beginning and has the class to kick clear late.


Santa Anita - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 Paige Runner
Has easy wins in four of her last six and is tremendous once she gets in front; will be difficult to catch.


#3 Midnight Jamboree
Finished ahead of Paige Runner last time and lost that one by a nose; in good form, game.


#5 Diva in Charge
Stalked, took the lead and drew clear last out; gave way last time but is capable of much better and could dig in against this short field.


Race Summary
Paige Runner will get to the front end and should be able to dictate the pace; legit chance to go wire to wire.


Santa Anita - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Antithetical
Was third in her last turn and turns back to a turf sprint; will make a solid run at the shorter distance.


#1 Armour Plate
Ran on well and just missed last out; can adjust to the pace and will be fighting it out to the end.


#2 Hartel
Usually gets to the lead and should be tough on the front end in this one; comes off a good third and fits well.


Race Summary
Antithetical gets a good pace in from of him and can make a strong late run; well spotted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special E



Equibase Special E - Race 3





Stakes • 1 1/4 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 108 • Purse: $3,000,000 • Post: 6:57P


KENTUCKY DERBY PRESENTED BY WOODFORD RESERVE - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (d irt or turf) is at least 50. ROCK YOUR WORLD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MEDINA SPIRIT: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. HIGHLY MOTIVATED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HOT ROD CHARLIE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.



14

ESSENTIAL QUALITY

2/1


6/1




15

ROCK YOUR WORLD

5/1


6/1




8

MEDINA SPIRIT

15/1


6/1




17

HIGHLY MOTIVATED

10/1


8/1




9

HOT ROD CHARLIE

8/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




15

ROCK YOUR WORLD

15


5/1

Front-runner

100


99


116.6


97.6


90.6




8

MEDINA SPIRIT

8


15/1

Front-runner

104


98


104.9


99.0


88.5




10

MIDNIGHT BOURBON

10


20/1

Front-runner

97


96


83.2


90.6


65.6




9

HOT ROD CHARLIE

9


8/1

Stalker

100


98


89.1


96.0


82.5




7

MANDALOUN

7


15/1

Stalker

95


97


84.7


89.6


68.1




14

ESSENTIAL QUALITY

14


2/1

Stalker

103


107


82.7


101.2


96.2




16

KING FURY

16


20/1

Stalker

96


99


82.6


87.8


67.3




2

LIKE THE KING

2


50/1

Stalker

94


95


81.7


88.3


56.8




12

HELIUM

12


50/1

Stalker

92


94


81.5


89.1


70.6




18

SUPER STOCK

18


30/1

Stalker

99


100


78.2


93.2


78.2




17

HIGHLY MOTIVATED

17


10/1

Stalker

104


105


73.0


100.9


88.9




5

SAINTHOOD

5


50/1

Stalker

93


90


67.8


86.0


57.0




19

SOUP AND SANDWICH

19


30/1

Stalker

97


102


62.0


98.0


85.0




6

O BESOS

6


20/1

Trailer

92


95


87.0


87.5


60.5




1

KNOWN AGENDA

1


6/1

Trailer

97


108


76.0


93.6


78.6




13

HIDDEN STASH

13


50/1

Trailer

94


91


74.8


90.2


59.2




3

BROOKLYN STRONG

3


50/1

Trailer

91


94


74.0


87.3


50.8




4

KEEPMEINMIND

4


50/1

Trailer

98


95


71.8


91.4


66.4




11

DYNAMIC ONE

11


20/1

Trailer

97


94


65.4


95.0


73.5




20

BOURBONIC

20


30/1

Trailer

94


94


62.5


86.2


53.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)



Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 5

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent mimimum wager $1 Pick Four



Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 7:52P


QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * LOOK UP: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JESS HEZ ON FIRE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



4

LOOK UP

3/1


5/2




1

JESS HEZ ON FIRE

3/1


5/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

JESS HEZ ON FIRE

1


3/1

Fast/Trouble-prone

79


78


0.0


0.0


0.0




4

LOOK UP

4


3/1

Fast

79


77


0.0


0.0


0.0




7

PRECYSION

7


5/1

Slow/Trouble-prone

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0























Unknown Running Style: HRH SIGNIFICANTEAGLE (9/2) [Jockey: Mendez Cruz - Trainer: Flores Jose Antonio], DECLARED BEST CARD (15/1) [Jockey: Peinado Oscar M - Trainer: Gomez Jaime H], JESS BEING A FRIEND (15/1) [Jockey: Herrera Diego A - Trainer: Andra

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7700 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR NEBRASKA-BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 EXTRA GORGEOUS 4/1




# 2 FLAN 2/1




# 3 TAYLOR'S BEAUTY 3/1




EXTRA GORGEOUS looks to be a solid contender. This mare looks like a playable longshot. Is tough not to look at given the company run in lately. She has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the best in this field. FLAN - Will probably come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the lead recently. This mare should be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. TAYLOR'S BEAUTY - Has posted strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Should compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Prairie Meadows - Race #7 - Post: 8:42pm - Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $41,278 Class Rating: 80

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 LEIGHTON KENTUCKY (ML=8/1)
#8 BYE LOVE GOTTA GO (ML=6/1)
#3 GOLD MAKER (ML=10/1)


LEIGHTON KENTUCKY - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Lets try to beat the favorites with this mare. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty decent race. BYE LOVE GOTTA GO - This thoroughbred absolutely loves this track. All her trips to the winner's circle have been here at Prairie Meadows. This mare has been claimed each of her last two starts. She figures to be tough in today's event. Horse made up some ground in the stretch drive last out on Oct 9th at Prairie Meadows. That affair is better than it looked. GOLD MAKER - I think the shorter trip will help this mare stay the trip. Three consecutive improved speed figures (59-67-69) make this animal a solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DAMASCUS GATE (ML=3/1), #1 TAPTHATLUCK (ML=7/2), #6 REPEAL (ML=9/2),

DAMASCUS GATE - I usually try to beat these types of favorites off the long layoff. TAPTHATLUCK - Be particularly concerned about this three-year old versus older. Will do better with more racing experience. REPEAL - 9/2 is not offering enough value for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance clash recently. Will not be easy for this animal to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the questionable contenders list.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #5 LEIGHTON KENTUCKY to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5,8] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,5,8] with [3,5,8] with [3,5,6,8,9] with [3,5,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17600 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB. RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 CASTLE OF CAYLEE 4/5




# 5 MABEL 3/1




# 6 SILKEN BELLE 6/1




I've got to go with CASTLE OF CAYLEE. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. With Lopez in the saddle guiding her, this mare should be able to break out early for this event. With a decent 75 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. MABEL - Has solid Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this event. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Latchman will almost certainly have this mare in excellent position to win the outing. SILKEN BELLE - Has very good Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. Is a contender - given the 58 speed figure from her most recent race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:10pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,600 Class Rating: 79

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 MY DEVILS CHILD (ML=5/1)
#6 BRAVE DEACON (ML=2/1)
#2 GREAT BEND (ML=8/1)


MY DEVILS CHILD - Gelding's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. BRAVE DEACON - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a sharp race on April 14th. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per race in here. GREAT BEND - Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a sharp contest in the last race within the last 30 days. Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 51 to 68 to 73 right in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 A T M AWESOME (ML=5/2), #5 AFLEET TRAXX (ML=6/1), #1 LONG TOM (ML=8/1),

A T M AWESOME - Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list. AFLEET TRAXX - This questionable contender ran a mediocre fig last out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure. LONG TOM - A bit of a lackluster performance when this gelding finished fifth.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 MY DEVILS CHILD on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,6] Box [2,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

04/30/21, CD, Race 11, 5.51 ET
04/30/21,CD,11,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:47:01 STAKES. Longines Kentucky Oaks. Grade 1. Purse $1,250,000. FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Best
Occurs
Win%
ROI


100.0000
12
Search Results
3/1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Brown Chad C.
F
427
20.37
1.17/$1


099.6526
6
Travel Column
3/1
Geroux F
Cox Brad H.


427
20.37
1.17/$1


098.3621
10
Malathaat
5/2
Velazquez J R
Pletcher Todd A.
E
454
25.77
1.16/$1


098.1249
14
Millefeuille
20/1
Rosario J
Mott William I.
W
454
25.77
1.16/$1


098.0273
5
Pass the Champagne
15/1
Castellano J
Weaver George


454
25.77
1.16/$1


097.1951
9
Coach
50/1
Saez L
Cox Brad H.


454
25.77
1.16/$1


096.8965
3
Clairiere
5/1
Gaffalione T
Asmussen Steven M.
C
454
25.77
1.16/$1


096.0076
8
Moraz
30/1
Prat F
McCarthy Michael W.
J
454
25.77
1.16/$1


095.9995
7
Ava's Grace
50/1
Cohen D
Diodoro Robertino
TL
454
25.77
1.16/$1


095.8270
1
Pauline's Pearl
20/1
Santana. Jr. R
Asmussen Steven M.
S
427
20.37
1.17/$1


095.3659
2
Maracuja
20/1
Carmouche K
Atras Rob


454
25.77
1.16/$1


094.9527
11
Will's Secret
30/1
Court J K
Stewart Dallas


454
25.77
1.16/$1


094.2378
4
Crazy Beautiful
15/1
Ortiz J L
McPeek Kenneth G.


454
25.77
1.16/$1


091.6318
13
Competitive Speed
50/1
Landeros C
Gonzalez Javier E.


454
25.77
1.16/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 24.07, ROI 1.29/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.3474
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]NotMorningLineFavorite(not entry)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Fri (MLB) Reds
Fri (MLB) Rockies
Fri (NBA) Bucks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

515WASHINGTON -516 CLEVELAND
WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games in the current season.

519ORLANDO -520 MEMPHIS
ORLANDO is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

523MILWAUKEE -524 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) in home games in the last 3 seasons.

525UTAH -526 PHOENIX
UTAH is 60-41 ATS (14.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

527SACRAMENTO -528 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Friday, April 30

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Hawks (34-29)
— Hawks lost three of their last five games.
— Hawks are 11-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
— Under is 3-0 in their last three games.

76ers (40-21)
— 76ers won last two games, by 31-44 points.
— Sixers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games.
— Under is 17-6 in Philly’s last 23 games.

— 76ers beat Atlanta by 44 here Wednesday.
— Hawks won five of last eight series games.
— Atlanta is 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Philly.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.

San Antonio @ Boston
Spurs (31-30)
— San Antonio won five of its last seven games.
— Spurs are 7-2 ATS in last nine road games.
— Under is 6-2 in Spurs’ last eight games.

Celtics (33-30)
— Boston lost four of its last six games.
— Celtics are 7-9 ATS in their last 16 home games.
— Over is 3-0 in their last three games

— San Antonio won eight of last ten series games.
— Spurs are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Boston.
— Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Washington @ Cleveland
Wizards (27-34)
— Wizards won 10 of last 13 games SU (10-3 ATS).
— Wizards are 6-1 ATS in last seven road games.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games

Cavaliers (21-40)
— Cleveland lost nine of its last 11 games SU.
— Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in last seven home games.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Cleveland games.

— Teams split last ten series games.
— Wizards are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Cleveland.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Portland @ Brooklyn
Trailblazers (34-28)
— Portland lost five of its last seven games, but won last two.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Blazers are 2-4 ATS in last six road games.
— Under is 10-5 in Portland’s last 15 games.

Nets (43-20)
— Brooklyn won five of its last six games SU.
— Nets are 4-1 ATS in last five home games.
— Over is 5-1 in last six Brooklyn home games.

— Nets won last three series games, covered last four.
— Portland is 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Brooklyn.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Orlando @ Memphis
Magic (18-43)
— Orlando lost 12 of its last 14 games.
— Magic is 7-4 ATS in last 11 road games.
— Over is 12-3 in their last 15 games overall.

Grizzlies (31-29)
— Memphis lost four of its last six games SU.
— Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in last eight home games.
— Under is 4-1 in last five Memphis games.

— Orlando won six of last seven series games.
— Magic is 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Memphis.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

Milwaukee @ Chicago
Bucks (38-24)
— Antetokounmpo hurt his ankle last night; check status.
— Milwaukee lost four of its last seven games SU.
— Bucks are 6-3 ATS in last nine road games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Under is 5-2 in Milwaukee’s last seven road games.

Bulls (26-36)
— Chicago lost eight of its last 12 games SU.
— Bulls are 3-5 ATS in their last eight home games.
— Under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.

— Milwaukee won last ten series games.
— Bucks covered their last five visits to Chicago.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Utah @ Phoenix
Jazz (45-17)
— Utah split its last six games SU.
— Jazz is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 road games.
— Under is 6-2 in Utah’s last eight games.

Suns (44-18)
— Phoenix won eight of its last 11 games.
— Suns are 2-3 ATS in their last five home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Over is 12-5 in their last 17 games.

— Suns won last three series games., covered last four.
— Phoenix is 2-3 ATS in last five trips to Utah.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Sacramento @ LA Lakers
Kings (25-37)
— Sacramento split its last six games SU.
— Kings are 3-0 ATS in their last three road games.
— Under is 5-2 in Sacramento’s last seven road games.

Lakers (36-25)
— Lakers lost four of their last five games.
— Lakers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine home games.
— Over is 8-5 in their 13 games overall.

— Lakers won six of last eight series games.
— Kings are 3-2 ATS in last five series games played here.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Friday, April 30

Trend Report

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

San Antonio @ Boston
San Antonio
San Antonio is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Boston
San Antonio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games at home

Washington @ Cleveland
Washington
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home

Portland @ Brooklyn
Portland
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland

Orlando @ Memphis
Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 9 games
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Memphis
Memphis
Memphis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Memphis's last 16 games when playing at home against Orlando

Milwaukee @ Chicago
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee

Utah @ Phoenix
Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah

Sacramento @ LA Lakers
Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Sacramento's last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games on the road
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Lakers's last 10 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Lakers's last 9 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoop Trends for Friday April 30
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Sacramento at L.A. Lakers (10:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Kings are 9-0 ATS (7.06 ppg) as a dog off a loss as a dog in which Buddy Hield was their high scorer.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The 76ers are 0-13-1 ATS (-9.61 ppg) as a favorite when they are off two straight wins as favorites.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
San Antonio at Boston (7:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Spurs are 13-0-1 OU (9.29 ppg) as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The 76ers are 0-10 OU (-9.75 ppg) as a favorite off a win in a home game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

901ST LOUIS -902 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 21-6 SU (13.4 Units) with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons.

901ST LOUIS -902 PITTSBURGH
DEREK SHELTON is 21-6 SU (14.4 Units) with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) (Coach of PITTSBURGH)

903NY METS -904 PHILADELPHIA
NY METS are 7-19 SU (-14.2 Units) vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

905MIAMI -906 WASHINGTON
MIAMI is 22-2 SU (20 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

907CHICAGO CUBS -908 CINCINNATI
CHICAGO CUBS are 31-52 SU (-26.2 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

909LA DODGERS -910 MILWAUKEE
LA DODGERS are 34-21 SU (12.8 Units) vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

911COLORADO -912 ARIZONA
COLORADO is 33-58 SU (-35.5 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the last 3 seasons.

913SAN FRANCISCO -914 SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-9 SU (12 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.

915DETROIT -916 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 7-0 SU (8.2 Units) in home games vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

917HOUSTON -918 TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON is 18-36 SU (-18 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, April 30

NL games
St Louis (13-12) @ Pittsburgh (12-12)
— Gant is 1-2, 2.70 in four starts.
— Cardinals are 2-2 in his starts
— under 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 3-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 3-2, 4.30 in 16 games (4 starts) vs Pittsburgh.

— Cardinals won five of their last seven games.
— St Louis is 2-4 in its last six road games.
— Under 7-2-2 last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-25
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-5

— Brubaker is 2-1, 2.01 in four starts.
— Pirates are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-2
— He threw scoreless IP, in one relief stint vs St Louis.

— Pirates won four of their last six games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-4 at home.
— under 4-2-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-4

Miami (11-13) @ Washington (9-12)
— Lopez is 0-2, 3.25 in five starts.
— Miami is 2-3 in his starts.
— over 2-1-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-2
— He is 2-2, 6.61 in seven starts vs Washington.

— Marlins lost six of their last ten games.
— Miami is 6-7 on the road.
— over 4-1-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 9-10-5

— Ross had three really good starts, one horrible start so far this year.
— Washington split his four starts.
— under 2-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 1-2, 3.24 in eight games (4 starts) vs Miami

— Washington is 4-5 in its last eight games.
— Nationals are 4-2 in last six home games.
— under 5-1 last six home games
— scored run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 5-10-6

Mets (9-10) @ Philadelphia (12-13)
— Stroman is 3-1, 2.59 in five starts.
— Mets are 3-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1
— He is 4-1, 2.56 in seven games (5 starts) vs Philly.

— Mets lost seven of their last ten games.
— Mets are 3-6 on the road.
— Under 5-0-1 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-1

— Anderson is 0-3, 6.48 in four starts.
— Phillies are 0-4 in his starts
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 0-4
— He is 2-4, 4.47 in 10 starts vs New York.

— Phillies lost 12 of their last 18 games.
— Phillies are 8-4 at home.
— under 6-1 last seven road games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-25
— record in first 5 innings: 7-11-7

Cubs (11-14) @ Cincinnati (11-13)
— Arrieta is 3-2, 2.57 in five starts.
— Cubs are 3-2 in his starts.
— under 4-0-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He is 7-2, 3.03 in ten starts vs Cincy.

— Cubs lost five of their last six games.
— Chicago is 3-7 on road.
— Under is 15-9 in their last 24 games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 10-13-2

— Miley is 0-2, 4.91 in his last two starts.
— He was 2-0, 0.00 (11 IP) in his first two starts.
— Reds are 2-2 in his starts.
— over 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 6-4, 4.50 in 11 starts vs Chicago.

— Cincinnati lost eight of its last ten games.
— Reds are 7-5 at home, 4-8 on road.
— Over 9-2-1 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-12-2

Dodgers (16-10) @ Milwaukee (15-10)
— Bullpen game for the Dodgers.

— Dodgers lost eight of their last 11 games.
— Dodgers are 8-5 on the road.
— over 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 7-26
— record in first 5 innings: 13-9-4

— Peralta is 2-0, 2.70 in four starts.
— Colorado is 3-1 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-2
— He gave up one run in four IP, in his one start vs Los Angeles.

— Brewers won 14 of their last 21 games.
— Milwaukee is 6-7 at home.
— under 9-5-1 last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 12-9-4

Colorado (9-16) @ Arizona (13-12)
— Gray is 3-1, 2.54 in five starts.
— Colorado is 3-2 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
— He is 5-5, 4.97 in 13 starts vs Arizona.

— Colorado lost three of its last four games.
— Rockies are 1-9 on the road.
— over 4-1 last five road games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-5

— Bumgarner is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts.
— He was 0-2, 11.19 in his first three starts.
— Arizona is 2-3 in his starts
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He is 17-9, 3.32 in 37 starts vs Colorado.

— Arizona won eight of its last ten games.
— Arizona is 4-4 at home.
— over 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 5-25
— record in first 5 innings: 13-11-1

San Francisco (16-9) @ San Diego (14-12)
— Webb is 1-1, 4.22 in four starts.
— Giants are 3-1 in his starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 0-0, 1.80 in three games (2 starts) vs San Diego.

— Giants are 13-6 in their last 19 games.
— Giants are 6-6 on the road.
— Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 5-25
— record in first 5 innings: 14-8-3

— Darvish is 2-1, 1.33 in his last four starts.
— Padres are 4-1 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-2
— He is 1-0, 4.07 in four starts vs San Francisco.

— Padres won four of last six games.
— San Diego is 1-6 in its last seven home tilts.
— four of last five games went over
— scored run in first inning: 6-26
— record in first 5 innings: 9-14-3

AL games
Detroit (8-18) @ Bronx (11-14)
— Skubal is 0-3, 5.68 in five games.
— Detroit is 0-3 in his starts.
— over 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Detroit lost 12 of its last 14 games.
— Detroit is 4-9 on the road.
— under 11-2 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-13 on road
— record in first 5 innings: 3-10 on road

— Cole is 3-1, 1.37 in his in his last four starts.
— New York is 3-2 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-0-1
— He is 5-1, 2.23 in seven starts vs Detroit.

— New York won six of its last ten games.
— New York is 1-5 in its last six home games.
— under 9-2 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-25
— record in first 5 innings: 10-12-3

Houston (13-12) @ Tampa Bay (13-13)
— McCullers is 1-1, 4.58 in four starts.
— Astros are 1-3 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 1-2, 3.79 in three starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros won six of their last eight games.
— Astros are 2-5 in last seven road games.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 5-25
— record in first 5 innings: 11-11-3

— Yarbrough is 0-2, 5.27 in five games (3 starts).
— He allowed one run in 10.2 IP, in his last two games.
— They may/may not use an opener.
— He is 0-1, 2.92 in two games (1 start) vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay is 3-5 in its last eight games.
— Rays are 3-7 in last ten home games.
— last six games stayed under
— scored run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-7

Boston (16-10) @ Texas (11-15)
— Eovaldi is 3-2, 4.08 in five starts.
— Red Sox are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
— He is 1-1, 3.00 in two starts vs Texas.

— Boston is 4-2 in its last six games.
— Red Sox are 8-2 on the road.
— under last four games
— scored run in first inning: 6-26
— record in first 5 innings: 10-11-5

— Arihara is 2-2, 4.43 in his five starts.
— Texas is 2-3 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Boston.

— Texas lost six of its last nine games.
— Texas is 5-8 at home.
— under 10-3 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 7-26
— record in first 5 innings: 12-11-3

Cleveland (11-12) @ White Sox (14-10)
— Bieber is 1-2, 2.48 in five starts.
— Indians are 3-2 when he starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
— He is 3-2, 2.48 in nine starts vs Chicago.

— Cleveland won three of its last four games.
— Indians are 4-6 on the road.
— over 6-2-1 last nine games
— scores run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 6-14-3

— Keuchel is 1-0, 2.81 in his last three starts.
— Chicago is 4-1 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-0-1
— He is 4-1, 2.87 in 10 games (9 starts) vs Cleveland.

— Chicago won eight of its last ten games.
— White Sox are 8-4 at home.
— under 8-4 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 8-24
— record in first 5 innings: 17-2-5

Kansas City (15-8) @ Minnesota (8-15)
— Singer allowed one run in 11 IP, in his last two starts.
— Royals are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 1-2, 5.52 in three starts vs Minnesota.

— Royals are 15-8 in their first 23 games.
— Royals are 7-3 on the road.
— 15 of last 20 games under
— scores run in first inning: 4-23
— record in first 5 innings: 11-8-4

— Pineda is 1-1, 3.22 in four starts.
— Twins are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 5-6, 4.21 in 11 starts vs Kansas City.

— Twins lost 13 of their last 16 games.
— Minnesota is 3-7 at home.
— under 5-1-1 last seven home games
— scores run in first inning: 10-23
— record in first 5 innings: 8-10-5

Baltimore (11-14) @ Oakland (16-10)
— Means is 2-0, 1.50 in five starts.
— Baltimore is 3-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-2
— He is 1-1, 1.93 in two starts vs Oakland.

— Orioles won three of their last five games.
— Baltimore is 7-4 on the road, 4-10 at home.
— under is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 9-12-4

— Fiers is making his first ’21 start.
— He is 75-62, 4.04 in 216 games (197 starts) in his career.
— He is 4-1, 1.93 in five starts vs Tampa Bay.

— A’s won 16 of last 19 games (2-3 in last five).
— Oakland won its last eight home games.
— Under is 10-3 in their last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-26
— record in first 5 innings: 11-10-5

Angels (12-11) @ Seattle (14-12)
— Heaney is 1-0, 1.53 in his last three starts.
— Angels are 2-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1
— He is 3-4, 3.69 in 12 starts vs Seattle.

— Halos won three of last four games overall.
— Angels lost seven of last 11 road games.
— under 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 11-10-2

— Flexen is 2-1, 3.13 in four starts.
— Seattle is 3-1 in his starts.
— over 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Seattle lost five of its last seven games.
— Seattle is 4-2 in its last six home games.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 6-26
— record in first 5 innings: 9-15-2

Interleague games
Atlanta (12-13) @ Toronto (11-12)
— Smyly is 0-1, 9.00 in three starts.
— Braves are 0-3 in his starts.
— over 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1-2
— He is 4-2, 2.72 in 11 games (8 starts) vs Toronto.

— Braves won five of their last eight games.
— Atlanta is 5-2 in last seven road games.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-25
— record in first 5 innings: 10-10-5

— Ray is 0-1, 2.81 in his first three starts.
— Toronto is 0-3 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He is 0-2, 5.06 in four starts vs Atlanta.

— Toronto won four of its last six games.
— Toronto is 4-4 at home in Florida.
— under 15-8
— scored run in first inning: 8-23
— record in first 5 innings: 10-11-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, April 30

Trend Report

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
St. Louis
St. Louis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

Miami @ Washington
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Miami

Detroit @ NY Yankees
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

NY Mets @ Philadelphia
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home

Atlanta @ Toronto
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Chi Cubs @ Cincinnati
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games

Boston @ Texas
Boston
Boston is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Boston

Cleveland @ Chi White Sox
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Chi White Sox is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee
LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Kansas City @ Minnesota
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Colorado @ Arizona
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road
Arizona
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado

Baltimore @ Oakland
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

San Francisco @ San Diego
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

LA Angels @ Seattle
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Seattle
LA Angels is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends for Friday April 30
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Kansa City at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Twins are 19-0 SU since Aug. 24, 2009 as a -140 or greater favorite after a 5+ run win as a road favorite the game prior.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Astros are 0-6 SU since Sep 23, 2020 in the last game of a series as a favorite when playing a team that has a worse record.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Brewers are 0-10 SY since Jun. 02, 2017 as a +140 or greater underdog after they won by one run the game prior.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: San Francisco at San Diego (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Padres are 0-13 O/U (-3.73 ppg) since Aug. 29, 2020 as a favorite after they had a comeback win the game prior.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

65WINNIPEG -66 MONTREAL
WINNIPEG is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) at home when the total is 5.5 in the current season.

69SAN JOSE -70 COLORADO
SAN JOSE is 49-68 ATS (-25.8 Units) after one or more consecutive overs in the last 3 seasons.

71LOS ANGELES -72 ANAHEIM
ANAHEIM is 1-14 ATS (-13.3 Units) in home games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.

73VEGAS -74 ARIZONA
VEGAS are 19-2 ATS (15.9 Units) against terrible defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Friday, April 30

Trend Report

Winnipeg @ Montreal
Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games at home

San Jose @ Colorado
San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games
San Jose is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Jose

Los Angeles @ Anaheim
Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Anaheim's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

Vegas @ Arizona
Vegas
Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Apr 30 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Tigers vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -375 at Draft Kings

Free Play on Yankees -375

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover Apr 30 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | DET vs NYY
Play on: OVER 7½ -110

The Yankees may have to score eight runs themselves to cover this total. That's entirely possible considering the Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal, the Yankees' bats finally are starting to come to life and the wind is blowing out to right at 20 mph.
I'm not expecting much run production from the Tigers against Gerritt Cole, although the brisk wind could help their lefty hitters especially given Yankee Stadium's short right field porch. It's the Yankees I'm counting on for a big-scoring performance returning to New York following an eight-game road trip. The Yankees produced 5 or more runs in four of those away contests. There's a good chance, too, Aaron Judge is back in the lineup. Skubal is 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA. His last two outings have been in relief.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy Apr 30 '21, 7:08 PM in 1h
NHL | Jets vs Canadiens
Play on: OVER 5½ -102

Friday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Friday.
The Jets have now dropped five games in a row, inexplicably held to one goal or less in four of those five contests. I expect a positive response from Paul Maurice's squad here, noting that they average 4.6 goals per game after losing six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons, with that situation coming up on seven occasions and producing an average total of 7.3 goals. The Jets also average 4.2 goals per game when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 6.4 goals. For the Canadiens part, they've lost three of their last four games overall, scoring two goals or less in all four contests and are coming off a completely flat effort against the rival Leafs two nights ago. Again, I expect to see a positive response from the Habs here. Note that Montreal averages 3.3 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons. The Canadiens check in allowing 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season and have given up at least four goals in three straight meetings with the Jets. Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in four of the last six matchups between these two teams in Montreal. Take the over (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Apr 30 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | CHC vs CIN
Play on: OVER 9 -103

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Cubs/Reds OVER 9
The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Cubs and Reds tonight. There is expected to be 14 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at the Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.
Both Jake Arrieta and Wade Miley have posted solid numbers thus far, which is keeping this total lower than it should be. Both will experience some regression tonight, especially with the wind blowing out. Miley gave up 5 runs in 1 2/3 innings in his last start against the Cubs last season. Arrieta hasn't faced the Reds since 2017.
The Reds are scoring 7.7 runs per game at home this season. The Cubs are scoring 8.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this year. The OVER is 10-2 in all Reds home games this season. The OVER is 36-15-5 in the last 56 meetings in Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard Apr 30 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | CHC vs CIN
Play on: UNDER 9 -120

908 Chicago at Cincinnati
Listed Arrieta & Miley
Jake Arrieta has owned the Reds in his career with a 63 average game score his last five against Cincinnati. But he hasn't faced them since 2017, which could actually be to his benefit. His last seven starts overall have resulted in a 55 game score, league average is 50. As Jake has gotten off to a great start in 2021. Every one of his starts this season has been better than league average.
Wade Miley has been very good himself with game scores of 73, 65, 45 and 54 this season. Cincinnati came out on fire offensively this year, but have regressed as we expected. They have produced 17 runs in their last six games.
With Chicago being shutout in 3 of 4 heading into the Thursday night contest, we feel confident this game is a low scoring one.
PLAY UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Apr 30 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Cubs vs Reds
Play on: Cubs +106 at Draft Kings

1* Free Sharp Play on Cubs +106
The Cubs (+106) are worth a look at basically even money on the road against the Reds in Friday's MLB action. Chicago will have Jake Arrieta on the mound and he's pitched extremely well. He's made 5 starts for the Cubs in 2021 and has a 2.57 ERA and 1.179 WHIP, while averaging nearly a K/9. He's pitched at least 5 in every start and has not allowed more than 3 runs. In fact he's given up 2 or less in 4 of his 5 starts. I just trust him a lot more than Cincinnati starter Wade Miley. Play the Cubs +106!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns Apr 30 '21, 7:37 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -123 at BetCris

I like what I saw from Ray last time out. After issuing too many walks his previous two starts, he turned things around and recorded nine K's without walking a batter. He's got a 2.81 ERA through three starts. That's a lot more than Smyly can say. He's got a 7.20 ERA through three starts. Last time out, he served up three home runs in four innings. In his previous start, he allowed two HR's in five innings. With the addition of Springer to the lineup, the Jays are going to be tough. In this battle of southpaws, consider Toronto.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Apr 30 '21, 7:40 PM in 2h
NBA | Wizards vs Cavs
Play on: Wizards -7 -107 at Draft Kings

Free Pick on Wizards

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price Apr 30 '21, 7:40 PM in 2h
NBA | Wizards vs Cavs
Play on: Wizards -7 -105 at BetCris

Dave's Friday Free Play:
1* on Washington Wizards -7
The Key: The Washington Wizards have won 11 of their last 13 games and are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. They just beat the Cavaliers by 9 at home and had an off game, and now they face the Cavaliers on the road and should put them away pretty easily this time around. Cleveland is just 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall. They will be without Larry Nance Jr. and could be without their best player in Collin Sexton, who is questionable. The Wizards are about as healthy as they have been all season which is a big reason they have gone 11-2 SU in their last 13 games. They are fighting to make the playoffs and won't take their foot off the accelerator. Cleveland is 1-9 ATS off 4 or more consecutive ATS losses this season. Take Washington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Apr 30 '21, 7:40 PM in 2h
NBA | Spurs vs Celtics
Play on: Spurs +4½ -105 at pinnacle

1* on Spurs +4½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness Apr 30 '21, 7:40 PM in 2h
NBA | Spurs vs Celtics
Play on: Celtics -4 -110 at BetCris

My free play is on the Bos Celtics at 7:40 ET.
The Boston Celtics were expected to be among the East's elite teams this season but after an 8-3 start, Boston found itself just 23-25 thru March 31. Boston did win EIGHT of nine to open April but the Celtics had lost FOUR of five before winning 120-11 at home over the Hornets on Wednesday. Boston and Miami are each 33-30, fighting for the East's No. 6 seed (last guaranteed playoff spot), desperately hoping to avoid the 7-10 "Play-In" tournament. Pop's Spurs missed the postseason last year, ending a 22-year playoff run. San Antonio is currently 31-30 (as is Memphis) and both teams are hopeful of catching the West's current No. 6, the Dallas Mavericks. However, the Mavs own a 3 1/2-game lead. The good news is that the Spurs are FOUR games clear of the No. 11 seed (Spurs look like a shoo-in for the "Play-In" tournament).
Both teams will be without an important player, as San Antonio's Derrick White (15.4) is out with an ankle injury and Boston's Kemba Walker (18.2-3.9-5.0) has a left oblique issue. Each team has decent depth but I favor the Boston duo of Tatum (25.8-7.4-4.4) and Brown (24.9-5.9-3.4) over San Antonio's DeRozan (21.5-4.4-7.2) and Murray (15.7-7.1-5.3). Brown (38 points) and Tatum (35) led the way in Boston's 120-111 home win over Charlotte on Wednesday, while the Spurs visit the TD Garden off a a 116-111 loss in Miami on Wednesday that snapped a three-game win streak.
The Celtics should remember that the Spurs won 110-106 back on Jan 27 in San Antonio and as the saying goes, "turnabout is fair play." Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Apr 30 '21, 7:40 PM in 2h
NBA | Wizards vs Cavs
Play on: Wizards -6½ -110 at Draft Kings

1* Free Play on Wizards -6½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander Apr 30 '21, 7:40 PM in 2h
NBA | Wizards vs Cavs
Play on: Wizards -6½ -110 at Mirage

1* NBA - Wizards/Cavs *FREE PICK* on Wizards -6.5
Friday's Free NBA Pick is on the Washington Wizards as a 6.5-point road favorite against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. Washington is 9-1 over their last 10 and on a crazy 11-2-1 ATS run in their last 14 games. Cavs are just counting down the days until the season is over and it shows in their play. Cleveland is just 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. They don't have much talent to start with and got a lot of guys out with injury. Wizards are fighting for a playoff spot. Bet Washington -6.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Apr 30 '21, 8:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Red Sox vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +150 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Rangers +150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Apr 30 '21, 8:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Red Sox vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +145 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Rangers +145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays Apr 30 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Royals vs Twins
Play on: Twins -135 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Twins -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports Apr 30 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Blazers vs Nets
Play on: Blazers -1 -110 at BetCris

Free NBA Prediction From Doc's Sports:
Take #521 Portland over Brooklyn (8 p.m., Friday, April 30)
The Nets have been an overrated favorite all season. Bettors love to take this super team but they rarely get the job done when laying points and this team is a work in progress that is hoping to show its best self in the postseason. They are coming in on a back-to-back after playing Indiana on Thursday while the Blazers had the night off. Portland really needs a win here and we think they will bring their A Game in this marquee Friday matchup

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Apr 30 '21, 9:08 PM in 3h
NHL | Sharks vs Avalanche
Play on: OVER 6 -105

FREE PLAY on Sharks/Avalanche over 6 -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson Apr 30 '21, 9:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Bucks vs Bulls
Play on: Bucks -1 -105 at BetCris

Rocketman Sports FREE NBA play Friday 4-30-21
Milwaukee @ Chicago (9:10 PM EST)
Play On: Milwaukee -1
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Chicago to take on the Bulls on Friday night. Milwaukee is 38-24 SU overall this year while Chicago comes in with a 26-36 SU overall record on the season. Milwaukee is 40-3 SU and 33-9 ATS last 3 years against division opponents. Milwaukee is 9-0 SU overall vs Chicago past 3 years including 4-0 SU and ATS when playing at Chicago. Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite. Chicago is 17-38 ATS last 55 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 1-9 ATS last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Milwaukee is 8-3 ATS overall vs Chicago last 11 meetings. Milwaukee is 8-0 ATS last 8 meetings in Chicago. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Apr 30 '21, 9:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Rockies vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Diamondbacks -114 at Draft Kings

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Diamondbacks -114

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Apr 30 '21, 9:40 PM in 4h
MLB | COL vs ARI
Play on: UNDER 8½ -105

Free Total Annihilator On Rockies vs Diamondbacks under 8½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Apr 30 '21, 9:40 PM in 4h
MLB | BAL vs OAK
Play on: UNDER 8 -112

1 Dimer on Orioles vs A's under 8 -112

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Apr 30 '21, 9:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Rockies vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Rockies +110 at linepros

FREE PICK - Colorado Rockies +110
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 911
I will take the Rockies as a small +110 road dog against the Giants. I just think we are seeing SF a little overvalued here with Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner threw a 7 inning no-hitter in a double-header against the Braves last time out, but is still just 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 5 starts. I just don't trust him.
I would much rather back Colorado with Jon Gray on the mound. Gray is off to a great start with a 2.54 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 5 starts. His only outing where he didn't go 5 and allow 2 or fewer was a road start against arguably the best offense in the game in the Dodgers.
In his last two starts against the Giants, Gray has allowed a mere 2 runs on 5 hits in 12 2/3 innings of work. That includes a start in early April this season, where he gave up 1 run in 6 2/3 innings of a 7-3 win. Give me the Rockies +110!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA Apr 30 '21, 10:40 PM in 5h
NBA | Kings vs Lakers
Play on: Kings +8 +100 at pinnacle

ASA free play on: Sacramento Kings +8 over LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - This line is off by a wide margin for a couple reasons. One, the Kings just gave up 154 points to the Jazz in a blowout loss so the oddsmakers adjusted for a public reaction. Two, The Kings were just plus 12.5 at Phoenix and plus 11.5 at Utah, who are both superior to the Lakers (without LeBron) and yet this number is nearly the same. The Lakers haven’t covered a game in five straight and the Kings have already split with them this season. The Kings and the big points are worth a look here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Apr 30 '21, 10:40 PM in 5h
NBA | Kings vs Lakers
Play on: Lakers -8 -109 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Lakers -8
The Los Angeles Lakers will be motivated tonight after dropping four of their last five games overall. Anthony Davis is getting his minutes extended with each passing game and they are only without LeBron James right now. They have played a tough schedule of late but now get a step down in class here against the Sacramento Kings, who will be without two of their best players in De'Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes tonight. It did not go well for the Kings last time out as they were blasted by the Jazz 105-154. The Lakers should win this game by double-digits and cover this number tonight. Give me the Lakers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
NBA – Celtics -4.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
NBA – Wizards -7
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
NBA – Hawks +9.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


4.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
MLB – Cardinals +100
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


5.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
MLB – Phillies +130
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


6.
Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Padres -1.5
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
MLB – Red Sox over 8
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


8.
Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
NBA – Trailblazers pk
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


9.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
NBA – Lakers -7.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


10.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
NBA – Bucks -2.5
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


11.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
MLB – Yankees -1.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


12.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
MLB – Rays +110
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


13.
SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Blue Jays -120
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


14.
East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NBA – Suns -4.5
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
NBA – Wizards -7
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


16.
Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
NBA – Hawks +9.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


17.
Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
MLB – Angels -150
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


18.
VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
MLB – White Sox +125
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
MLB – Yankees over 7.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
NBA – Celtics over 218.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
NBA – Magic over 224
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
NBA – Suns -4.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
MLB – Rockies under 8.5
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
MLB – Phillies +130
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Athletics -130
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)