Tuesday 7/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
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College Basketball
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NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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MLB

NL games
Miami (40-53) @ Washington (44-48)
— Rogers is 0-3, 3.86 in his last five starts.
— Marlins are 2-6 in his last eight starts.
— under 10-8
— allowed run in first inning: 2-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-2
— He gave up 3 runs in 5 IP, in one start vs Washington.

— Marlins are 11-18 in their last 29 games.
— Miami is 6-17 in last 23 road games.
— over 9-2-1 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 22-93
— record in first 5 innings: 34-41-18

— Espino is 2-2, 3.22 in five starts.
— Nationals are 2-3 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He gave up 6 runs in 4 IP, in 2 relief stints vs Miami.

— Washington lost 10 of its last 14 games.
— Nationals are 2-5 in last seven home games.
— over 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 31-92
— record in first 5 innings: 37-35-19

Mets (49-42) @ Cincinnati (48-46)
— bullpen game

— Mets are 14-17 in their last 31 games.
— Mets are 5-8 in their last 13 road games.
— over 10-5-1 last 16 games.
— Last three games, total of 55 runs were scored.
— scored run in first inning: 24-91
— record in first 5 innings: 40-39-12

— Miley is 3-0, 2.49 in his last eight starts.
— Reds are 11-5 in his starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 5-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-2
— He is 0-1, 4.30 in four starts against the Mets.

— Cincinnati lost its last four games.
— Reds are 10-8 in last 18 home games.
— under 10-6 last 16 home games
— scored run in first inning: 26-94
— record in first 5 innings: 38-40-16

San Diego (55-41) @ Atlanta (45-47)
— Darvish is 0-1, 6.60 in his last three starts.
— Padres are 14-4 in his starts.
— over 9-2 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 7-4-7
— He is 0-3, 6.62 in four starts vs Atlanta.

— Padres are 6-8 in their last 14 games.
— San Diego is 6-13 in its last 19 road games.
— over 8-3 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-96
— record in first 5 innings: 37-43-16

— Muller is 1-2, 2.45 in three starts.
— Braves are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

— Braves won four of their last seven games
— Atlanta is 8-5 in its last 13 home games.
— over 8-2 in last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-92
— record in first 5 innings: 48-32-12

Cubs (46-48) @ St Louis (47-47)
— Williams is 1-1, 5.92 in his last six starts.
— His last start was May 26.
— Cubs are 6-4 in his starts.
— under 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 6-3-1
— He is 4-6, 5.64 in 13 starts vs St Louis.

— Cubs are 4-15 in last 19 games.
— Chicago is 2-11 in its last 13 road games.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-94
— record in first 5 innings: 40-42-12

— They haven’t named a starter.

— Cardinals are 11-6 in last 17 games.
— St Louis is 7-1 in its last eight home games.
— Under is 18-10-2 in their last 30 games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-94
— record in first 5 innings: 38-38-18

Pittsburgh (36-58) @ Arizona (28-68)
— Anderson is 2-0, 2.12 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 9-8 in his starts.
— over 8-3 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-17
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-3
— He is 3-3, 6.27 in ten starts vs Arizona.

— Pirates is 7-5 in its last 12 games.
— Pittsburgh is 2-6 in last eight road games.
— over 10-5 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 26-94
— record in first 5 innings: 29-52-13

— They haven’t named a starter.

— Arizona is 12-52 in its last 64 games.
— Arizona is 5-8 in its last 13 home games.
— over 5-4 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 15-96
— record in first 5 innings: 36-54-6

San Francisco (59-34) @ Dodgers (58-37)
— Wood is 2-0, 2.60 in his last three starts.
— Giants are 10-5 in his starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 3-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-4-3
— He is 0-2, 4.50 in two starts vs Los Angeles this year.

— Giants won six of their last eight games.
— Giants are 7-5 in last 12 road games.
— Under is 12-5 in last 17 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-93
— record in first 5 innings: 52-28-13

— Prospect Josiah Gray likely to make his first MLB start.
— He is 1-1, 2.87 in 4 games (3 starts) in AAA (15.2 IP).
— Chances are he’ll be on a pitch count.

— Dodgers are 5-6 in last 11 games.
— Dodgers are 7-2 in last nine home games.
— under 9-3-1 last 13 home games
— scored run in first inning: 29-95
— record in first 5 innings: 48-31-16

AL games
Minnesota (40-54) @ White Sox (57-37)
— Ober is 1-1, 6.94 in his last three starts.
— Twins are 5-3 in his starts.
— over 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4
— He is 1-1, 6.57 in three starts vs Chicago this year.

— Minnesota lost four of its last five games.
— Twins are 2-9 in last 11 road games.
— over 9-7 last 16 road games
— scored run in first inning: 34-94
— record in first 5 innings: 28-46-20

— Keuchel is 2-1, 2.25 in his last four home games
— Chicago is 11-7 in his starts.
— over 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 11-4-3
— He is 2-0, 6.39 in two starts vs Minnesota this year.

— Chicago won eight of its last ten games.
— White Sox are 7-2 in last nine home games.
— over 8-4 last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-94
— record in first 5 innings: 52-26-16

Boston (57-37) @ Toronto (48-43)
— Richards is 1-1, 7.79 in his last four starts.
— Red Sox are 8-4 in his last 12 starts.
— over 6-0-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 11-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-4
— He is 1-1, 5.40 in three starts vs Toronto this year.

— Boston is 3-6 in its last nine games.
— Red Sox are 7-9 in last 16 road games.
— under 6-3-1 last ten road games
— scored run in first inning: 33-94
— record in first 5 innings: 44-35-15

— bullpen game

— Toronto won four of last five games.
— Blue Jays are 5-2 in last seven home games.
— Over is 10-7 in their last 17 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-91
— record in first 5 innings: 11-3-2 last 15 at home

Baltimore (31-62) @ Tampa Bay (55-39)
— Means is 0-2, 3.96 in five starts since his no-hitter.
— His last start was June 5th.
— Orioles are 5-7 in his starts.
— under 7-4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-12
— record in first 5 innings: 5-3-4
— He is 3-1, 3.71 in five starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Orioles are 7-9 in last 16 games.
— Baltimore is 18-32 on road, 13-30 at home.
— over is 39-18-1 in their last 58 games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-93
— record in first 5 innings: 29-49-15

— McClanahan is 1-1, 3.38 in his last four starts.
— Rays are 7-6 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-13
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its last 11 games.
— Rays are 9-3 in last 12 home games.
— under is 5-0 in last last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-94
— record in first 5 innings: 36-36-22

Texas (35-59) @ Detroit (44-51)
— Dunning is 1-0, 1.93 in his last three starts.
— Texas is 5-12 in his starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 7-17
— record in first 5 innings: 7-8-2
— He is 0-0, 3.86 in two starts vs Detroit.

— Texas is 2-9 in its last 11 games.
— Rangers lost last three games by combined 29-0.
— Texas is 4-24 in its last 28 road games.
— over 14-3-1 last 18 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 19-94
— record in first 5 innings: 31-50-13

— Skubal is 1-1, 5.16 in his last four starts.
— Tigers are 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— over 9-6-1
— allowed run in first inning: 7-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9
— He hasn’t pitched against Texas.

— Detroit won its last four games.
— Detroit is 9-3 in last 12 home games.
— over 23-11-1 last 35 games
— scored run in first inning: 19-95
— record in first 5 innings: 9-2-1 last 12 at home.

Cleveland (47-44) @ Houston (57-38)
— McKenzie is 0-0, 3.00 in his last four starts.
— Indians are 4-7 in his starts.
— over 6-5
— allowed run in first inning: 2-11
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Houston.

— Cleveland lost 14 of its last 21 games.
— Indians lost seven of last nine road games.
— under 4-1 last five road games
— scores run in first inning: 30-91
— record in first 5 innings: 34-43-14

— Garcia is 1-1, 3.27 in his last four starts.
— Astros are 8-2 in his last ten starts.
— under 7-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 9-3-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Cleveland.

— Astros lost five of last eight games.
— Astros are 4-6 in last ten home games.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 32-95
— record in first 5 innings: 49-32-14

Angels (46-47) @ Oakland (54-42)
— Suarez is 1-1, 3.38 in two starts.
— Angels are 1-1 in his starts.
— under 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He allowed 2 runs in 10.2 IP in 3 relief stints vs Oakland.

— Halos are 8-6 in last 14 games.
— Angels are 4-9 in last 13 road games.
— over 24-12-1 last 37 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-93
— record in first 5 innings: 40-41-12

— Kaprielian is 0-2, 3.00 in his last four starts.
— A’s are 6-5 in his starts.
— over 6-5
— allowed run in first inning: 2-11
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-3
— He gave up 2 runs in 5.2 IP in one start vs Anaheim.

— A’s are 5-3 in last eight games.
— Oakland is 4-6 in last ten home games.
— Under is 14-7 in their last 21 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-96
— record in first 5 innings: 41-36-19

Interleague games
Kansas City (37-55) @ Milwaukee (55-39)
— Minor is 0-4, 8.55 in his last four starts.
— Kansas City is 8-11 in his starts.
— over 9-6 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 7-10-2
— He is 3-2, 2.31 in six starts vs Milwaukee

— Royals are 8-28 in last 36 games.
— Royals lost their last 12 road games.
— over 10-3-1 last 14 road games.
— scores run in first inning: 18-92
— record in first 5 innings: 33-47-12

— Lauer is 2-1, 0.98 in his last three starts.
— Milwaukee is 4-5 in his starts.
— over 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City.

— Brewers won their last three games.
— Milwaukee is 7-6 in its last 13 home games.
— under 5-1 last six home games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-95
— record in first 5 innings: 44-33-18

Philadelphia (46-45) @ Bronx (48-43)
— Nola is 1-1, 8.35 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 9-9 in his starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 7-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-1
— He is 1-0, 0.66 in two starts vs New York.

— Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 games.
— Phillies are 26-17 at home, 20-28 on road.
— over 10-1 last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-91
— record in first 5 innings: 36-34-21

— German is 0-2, 10.57 in his last four starts.
— New York is 8-7 in his starts.
— under 8-7
— allowed run in first inning: 9-17
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-6
— He gave up 7 runs in 5.1 IP in 2 games (1 start) vs Philly.

— New York won seven of its last nine games.
— New York is 4-5 in its last nine home games.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 24-91
— record in first 5 innings: 38-36-17

Seattle (50-44) @ Colorado (41-53)
— Gonzales is 0-1, 6.53 in his last four starts.
— Mariners are 5-6 in his starts.
— under 6-5
— allowed run in first inning: 4-11
— record in first 5 innings: 2-7-2
— He is 1-0, 5.06 in two starts vs Colorado.

— Seattle is 19-8 in its last 27 games.
— Seattle is 7-3 in last ten road games.
— over 13-4 last 17 road games
— scored run in first inning: 30-94
— record in first 5 innings: 44-43-7

— Marquez is 4-0, 0.75 in his last five starts.
— Rockies are 9-2 in his last 11 starts.
— under 8-1-1 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-1
— He is 2-1, 1.71 in three starts vs Seattle.

— Colorado is 16-12 in its last 28 games.
— Rockies are 32-19 at home, 9-34 on road.
— under 13-3 last 16 games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-94
— record in first 5 innings: 36-43-15

Tuesday’s umpires
Mia-Wsh— Last five Hallion games went over.
NY-Cin— Under is 3-1 in last four Carapazza games.
Chi-StL— Under is 5-1 in last six Diaz games.
Pitt-Ariz— Over is 9-2 in Ceja games.
SF-LA— Last eight Iassogna games went over.

Minn-Chi— Last eight Barber games went over.
Bos-Tor— Underdogs are 7-2 in last nine Whitson games.
Balt-TB— Home side won five of last six O’Nora games.
Tex-Det— Under is 7-3 in last ten Hamari games.
Clev-Hst— Underdogs are 5-1 in last six Dreckman games.
LAA-A’s— Under is 10-6 in Miller games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Five Takeaways - 7/20/21 July 20, 2021
From the week concluding July 18, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst

1 – The disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie in the Haskell S.-G1 – the fastest (and easiest) decision by a board of stewards we’ve seen since maybe ever – lands strictly on the shoulders of Flavien Prat, not Paco Lopez, not the no-whip rule, and certainly not Hot Rod Charlie, who didn’t lug in but was clearly steered in, either carelessly or purposely, by Prat. In a television interview the following day on TVG, Prat said he wasn’t even aware that his actions had placed Midnight Bourbon in close quarters in mid-stretch. “I had no clue what happened. It was just after the wire that I realized he was in between us.”

Well, folks, that’s the definition of carelessness. And Prat, a great jockey to be sure - head-and-shoulders above his colleagues on the Southern California circuit and never considered to be a rough or dirty rider - appeared to make a calculated mistake, that of assuming that Midnight Bourbon had dropped away and was clear of heel-clipping range. In leaning to his left in an effort to have Hot Rod Charlie better engage his main challenger Mandaloun, Prat did what he thought he needed to do in order to extract the maximum competitive energy from his colt. And the maneuver served its purpose, as Hot Rod Charlie indeed sensed the challenge, dug down deep and got the best of Mandaloun right at the wire.

We’ll never know which of the two would have crossed the wire first if Prat had not decided to change lanes without signaling; we can only be thankful that Midnight Bourbon (who managed to keep his feet in a truly magnificent display of athleticism) and Lopez (who must be thinking what the reaction would have been if HE had done what Prat did) weren’t injured.


2 – There were several superior performances last weekend by horse and trainer, not the least of which was the second straight victory by Althiqa (and now three-out-four in head-to-head battles) over Summer Romance in the Diana S.-G1 at Saratoga that produced yet another one-two finish from these two terrific Great Britain-based fillies. We expected the result of last month’s Just A Game S.-G1 to be reversed because of a highly favorable pace flow that likely would favor the front-running Summer Romance (it did), but Althiqa, despite being forced to rally wide into slow fractions, collared her Godolphin stable mate close home while continuing the superlative form that had been evident this past winter in Dubai.

It’s been reported in Daily Racing Form that both fillies will return to the States in the fall, Althiqua for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over 11 furlongs at Del Mar, and Summer Romance for the First Lady S.-G1 at Keeneland. We’re not sure there’s an American-based older filly or mare turf specialist who could beat either one of them right now.


3 – Just in time for the late-summer yearling sales, freshman stallion Practical Joke is off to highly-promising start at stud, with his first crop represented by Wit, now unbeaten in two starts, a six length maiden win at Belmont Park last month and then the Sanford S.-G3 over the weekend at Saratoga by eight lengths, with runner-up Headline Report more than five clear of the rest. If Wit turns out to be as accomplished a racehorse as his sire, that will be nice, but if you recall, Practical Joke was notorious for being almost unbeatable in one corner races but something far less than that when stretching out around two turns.

Though it’s far too early to pigeon-hole Wit as a late-running sprinter, at this stage of his young career, there is a strong possibility that is what he will prove to be. Assuming he stays healthy and continues on a logical schedule that should include the 7f Hopeful S.-G1 and then perhaps the 8F Champagne S.-G1, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt won’t have to cross that bridge until the 8.5 furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S.-G1 on the first Friday in November at Del Mar.


4 – And then there’s Gun Runner, who appears on the path to where his sire, Candy Ride, always has been. With his first foals racing this year, the Three Chimneys stallion already has sired eight winners (seven doing so in their debuts), perhaps none more impressive than the filly Echo Zulu, successful by five and one-half lengths at Saratoga opening day for her sire’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, in a performance that was assigned a 92 Beyer speed figure, 16 points better than what Pretty Bird earned when easily winning the Schuylerville S.-G3 later in the day.

While Echo Zulu has been the most impressive juvenile filly we’ve witnessed so far, we also very much liked what we saw at Del Mar from Smash Ticket in her victory on Saturday. Second to the very speedy Wicked Halo in her debut at Lone Star Park, the daughter of Midnight Lute (and a May foal, no less) earned a stakes-quality 78 Beyer speed figure in a five-length maiden romp, winning like a filly who seems certain to run on.


5 – News flash: the rail is death at Del Mar. Like always. Like it’s certain to be on Breeders’ Cup weekend in November, just as it was when Championship Day was held there four years ago. Yes, things could change (no, actually, they won’t), but during the first three days of the 2021 season, here are the stats for post position number one on dirt: Sprints (15 races, no wins, no seconds, three thirds). Routes: (5 races, no wins, no seconds, one third).

Meanwhile, horses drawn in either of the two extreme outside posts in all main track events have won 10 of the 19 races. So, when you open your Form and peruse the past performances charts, start from the outside and work your way down. If you find something you like right off the bat, circle it and just move on to the next race. Hey, just trying to make things easy.
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From the Weekend Concluding July 11, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst

1 – It may be difficult to truly appreciate the impact that Galileo had on thoroughbred racing, both on the track and in his record-setting career at stud. Arguably the sport’s most influential stallion in the past half-century if not of all time, the winner of both the Epsom Darby and the Irish Derby in 2001 was the product of 14-time champion sire Sadler’s Wells and Arc winner Urban Sea and thus truly epitomized the old saying, “breed the best to the best and hope for the best.” At stud, Galileo sired at last count 338 stakes winners, including the undefeated Frankel, certainly one of the greatest race horses in European history.

Galileo’s influence is guaranteed to carry on through his sons and daughters for as long as The Jockey Club keeps records. He was euthanized July 10 at the age of 23 due to a chronic injury to his left fore front, hours before his 3-year-old son of Bolshoi Ballet became his 91st Grade/Goup-1 winner when capturing the Belmont Derby-G1.


2 – Trainer Aidan O’Brien is properly regarded as one of the world’s greatest trainers but gamblers who have backed his Irish-based runners in New York in the past few years have been wondering what the hype is all about. Having a record of something like 1-for-61 prior to his sending Santa Barbara and Bolshoi Ballet across the pond gave many handicappers what proved to be an unnecessary reason for pause in the Belmont Oaks-G1 and Belmont Derby-G1, respectively, even though both imports appeared on resume to be absolute standouts. Both runners left at just slightly better than even money, with Santa Barbara accelerating impressively in the closing stages to win the Oaks as much best and then an hour later Bolshoi Ballet taking an overland journey to produce a smart score in the Derby.

It must be noted that they are 3-year-olds and thus have plenty of room for further development. However, neither are considered to be at the top of the list among those that could venture to Del Mar in the fall for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup festival, a scary thought for an American long distance turf contingent that, as usual, appears at the midpoint of the season to be only slightly above ordinary.


3 – It’ll be interesting to see if Oaklawn Park’s decision to move next year’s $1.2 million Arkansas Derby-G1 up to April 2, five weeks prior to the Run for the Roses rather than its traditional three week slot, has any impact on the placement of the yet-to-be-scheduled $750,000 Florida Derby-G1, which, if tradition holds, would be positioned to run on that same day. One would think that with a more lucrative purse of $450,000, the Arkansas Derby might be in line to attract the stronger field. However, when it comes to Kentucky Derby preparation, most horsemen are far less concerned about a purse discrepancy than taking the path of least resistance towards the accumulation of points that assures a spot in the starting line-up on the first Saturday in May.

Gulfstream Park management could move the Florida Derby to the next day (Sunday), wait a week and make it a Stronach Group coast-to-coast double header with the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby-G1, or simply stand pat. As a loyal employee, whatever management decides is officially fine by me.


4 – As impressive as any performance witnessed during the past weekend was the runaway romp by Bella Sofia in a first-level allowance sprint for 3-year-olds fillies Sunday at Belmont Park. The margin of victory (six and one-half lengths) and the manner in which the win was accomplished (she easily disposed of a pace rival and then drew off with a ton left) surely stamps the daughter of Awesome Patriot as a legitimate threat to repeat on the raise when facing graded stakes company at Saratoga. Though she won her debut by more than 11 lengths and then was beaten just a length by (at-the-time) undefeated Australasia in the listed Jersey Girl S. last month, this effort left her previous two outings far behind while earning an Equibase speed figure of 112, easily a career top.

It’s hard to believe that the Rudy Rodriguez-trained filly brought only $20,000 at the 2020 OBS June sale, though to be fair she was a sibling to nobody and her 10 2/5 seconds breeze during the preview session was visually average at best.


5 – It’s been getting worse by the year but in 2021 the proliferation of mis-timed fractions and final times of races throughout North America has reached a level of absurdity. Not a day goes by when horse players, especially those that depend on accurate speed figures as the backbone of their handicapping process, aren’t burdened with charts that are peppered with the infuriating “hand-timed” designation. What’s worse is when final times are clearly wrong, and the tracks don’t even both to issue a correction.

On Sunday alone, the Equibase official chart failed to list any fractions or final time associated with the featured River Memories Stakes at Belmont Park. We put a man on the moon more than 50 years ago. It shouldn’t be that difficult to accurately clock a horse race.
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From the Weekend Concluding July 5, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst

1 – The most significant performance of the extended holiday weekend comes courtesy of St Mark’s Basilica in his nothing-short-of-exceptional victory in the 10F Coral-Eclipse S.-G1 at Sandown on Saturday. After winning three previous Group-1 races against his own age group, including the Dewhurst S. at Newmarket, the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp and the French Derby at Chantilly, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt made a mockery of older rivals, chief among them Saudi Cup-G1 and Dubai Sheema Classic-G1 winner Mishriff, while producing the type of acceleration two furlongs out that only the great ones possess.

The French-bred son of Siyouni must now be rated the best horse in Europe, if not the entire planet, and would be a wonderful addition to any Breeders’ Cup field, though he may very well have other fish to fry overseas in the fall. "Of all the times we've trained horses through all the years, I can't remember that we've had (a performance) like that," said O'Brien.


2 – A critical race at Belmont Park for older horses, the 10F Suburban S.-G2, offered a rematch of the first two finishers from the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1, the unbeaten Happy Saver, and the Dubai World Cup-G1 winner Mystic Guide. But over a sloppy sealed surface that neither appeared to grab, it was Max Player (not Maxfield) who sprung the upset in a race that proved little other than the winner’s affinity for a muddy track.

A distant third in both the Belmont S.-G1 and the Travers S.-G1 last summer and then nowhere to be found in his four most recent races (including a 24-length drubbing to the aforementioned Mishriff in Saudi Arabia), the son of Honor Code was game in victory but earned only a 101 Beyer speed figure, an indication that the others ran down to his level, not the other way around. Attached to the victory is an all-expense paid ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 at Del Mar. But there will be no rain on the first Saturday in November in San Diego county.


3 – A legitimate Grade-1 front-runner such as Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 winner Knicks Go facing a handful of thoroughly outclassed rivals that have no chance to apply even a modest amount of early pressure is the perfect recipe for the easily predictable outcome of the 9F Prairie Meadows Cornhusker-G3 Friday evening. His 10 length margin of victory manufactured a career-top 113 Beyer Speed Figure while reaffirming what trainer Brad Cox said after the 5-year-old son of Paynter finished a fading fourth at 4/5 in the Met Mile in early June. “He’s a two-turn horse, was Cox’s simple but entirely accurate explanation.

Now, with 21 races on his resume, Knick’s Go clearly has established one other indisputable characteristic: when facing top class company; he is a dyed-in-the-wool need-the-lead type. Though unproven at 10 furlongs – but certain to stay the trip under pristine conditions - he could very well resurface at Del Mar August 21 for the $750,000 Pacifica Classic-G1 in what would serve as a dress rehearsal for the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 that will be staged over that same course and distance 11 weeks later. Mystic Guide could be headed in the same direction, as well.


4 – It’s the time of the year when we’re inclined to seek out potentially high-class, late-developing 3-year-olds – those that weren’t ready or seasoned enough for the Triple Crown – to make an impact in the sophomore ranks and perhaps even steal an Eclipse Award, such as what Arrogate did a few years back. While he’s nowhere near that level just yet, First Captain will have his chance to establish championship credentials at Saratoga, with the 10F Travers S.-G1 his late-summer goal. Unbeaten in three starts but yet to race farther than a mile, the son of Curlin, at 40 cents on the dollar, was workmanlike when grinding out a one and three-quarter length victory in the Dwyer S.-G3 at Belmont Park on Monday. The Beyer speed figure was a just okay 90, a career low.

However, Shug’s colt has a pedigree to excel over a classic distance and farther. In as division which currently has Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie squarely at the top, a new shooter such as this $1.5 million yearling purchase, may still be capable of bringing fresh blood and new life to a division that remains there for the taking.


5 – Gamine has been beaten just once in nine starts. She failed to see out the nine-furlong trip in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks-G1 when third (and then subsequently disqualified for a bad test) but has been otherwise perfect, most recently coasting home to register a 10-length romp in the 6.5F Great Lady M. S.-G2 at Los Alamitos on Monday. In any other year, she’d probably be sent to Saratoga, where she won the 2020 Test S.-G1 by seven lengths, but a trip to New York isn’t currently an option for trainer Bob Baffert. We anticipate Gamine will remain in the West and be given a run, perhaps two, to prepare to defend her title in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-G1.

The Rancho Bernardo (Aug. 20) at Del Mar logically would be next, but that race is just a Grade-3 with a $100,000 guaranteed purse and will be carded under handicap conditions, so you have to wonder just how much weight she’d be asked to carry in order to make the race competitive. Facing males eight days later in the 7F Pat O’Brien for twice the purse money (it’s a win-and-your-in race, too) might be a better option, especially under the 122 lb. impost she would carry, according to the conditions of the race.
*
*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday Myths: Are Horses Claimed for Sar/Dmr Placed to Strike? July 19, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses claimed prior to the Saratoga and Del Mar meets deserve extra consideration as connections have a spot in mind for them at the boutique meets.

Background:

Everyone wants to win races, particularly at Saratoga and Del Mar’s prestigious summer meets. You’ll often see a flurry of horses claimed prior to these race meetings with an eye toward their prestigious winners’ circles. But are these horses any more successful when claimed before Saratoga and Del Mar than the other race meetings in their respective circuits?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all horses who raced first time off the claim at Saratoga and Del Mar over the past 5 years, going back to summer 2016. Horses claimed within that meet were not considered in the study, but rather horses claimed from other racetracks in their prior starts. To compare, I ran the same numbers for horses claimed prior to meets at corresponding circuit meets (NYRA = Aqueduct, Belmont, SoCal = Santa Anita, Los Alamitos). I also added the opening weekend results for horses fresh off the claim for 2021.

//

Horses claimed and raced next at Saratoga won 15.1% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Horses claimed and raced next at Belmont won 15.8% with a $.0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.
Horses claimed and raced next at Aqueduct won 17.0% with a $.87 ROI for every $1 bet.
Horses claimed and raced opening weekend 2021 at Saratoga were 20: 2-1-5 (10%).

//

Horses claimed and raced next at Del Mar won 12.6% with a $0.76 ROI for every $1 bet.
Horses claimed and raced next at Santa Anita won 14.4% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.
Horses claimed and raced next at Los Alamitos won 19.1% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Horses claimed and raced opening weekend 2021 at Del Mar were 20: 2-2-3 (10%).

Overall Findings:

Saratoga was the most difficult place for horses on the NYRA circuit to win off the claim, slightly under-performing those at Belmont and significantly below those at Aqueduct. Del Mar also was the most difficult place for horses on the SoCal circuit to win off the claim, under-performing both those from Santa Anita and Los Alamitos. Opening weekend 2021 showed a below-par performance for horses off the claim at both Saratoga and Del Mar.

Bottom line:

While everyone wants to win at Saratoga and Del Mar, claiming horses with an eye towards running there is not proven to be as statistically successful as attempting that on the other circuit tracks for both destinations. In fact, the success of horses claimed and running on both of these circuits is decidedly more favorable with the circuit’s least-glamorous meets ... and gets tougher with the increased competition at its various season meetings. In other words, it’s been more successful to claim a horse prior to the cheapest meet on the circuit than the most lucrative – proving this study’s assumption to be patently false.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers DO perform well off the claim at Saratoga and Del Mar? Absent the suspended Jason Servis (8-19), the most effective barns at Saratoga with horses claimed in their start prior to the meet are Rudy Rodriguez (7-30), Linda Rice (6-26), Danny Gargan (5-19), Bruce Levine (3-11) and Steve Asmussen (3-12). At Del Mar, those top barns are fewer and include Richard Baltas (3-6), Doug O’Neill (6-33), Mark Glatt (3-17).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Parx Racing - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#11 A Gray for Carolyn
He has only had the one career chance over the turf, and he's in decent form heading into this. Mid-range price player is worth a look from midpack.


#3 Our Uncle Drew
No thank you on this 33-start maiden on top, but his recent turf for is fairly competitive with these, and something similar to his last one would probably make him tough.


#2 Ouch Ouch Ouch
His form can be a bit spotty, but if he's able to hold the kind of running line he produced last time out, that would keep him right in the mix with these again.


Race Summary
A Gray for Carolyn is in decent form and is worth another look on the grass in what seems like a wide-open race. #7 S Man is another obvious player to include in the gimmicks.


Parx Racing - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#1 Hold Me Closer
No barn really dominates this kind of 2yo race here, and the Mosco operation won with their only similar local start in the last couple of years, a runner who was also making their second lifetime start.


#4 Mecedora Coming
She showed some chasing pace in the debut and stuck around nicely underneath. She can probably build on that debut run, and any step forward probably puts her right in the picture.


#3 Seven Years Later
Debuter brings what looks like a decent enough worktab to this unveiling, and this might not be the deepest race at this level here in recent times.


Race Summary
Hold Me Closer has an experience edge on many of these and goes for a barn that did win with their only short 2yo dirt MSW sprinter like this in recent years.


Parx Racing - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#6 Enough Love
Cutback player ran very well in some sprint races here earlier this year, and she's the only truly committed finisher in a race with what feels like plenty of early burn. Picks them up late at a price?


#5 Oxana
She rolled an overmatched group of statebred maidens in that dirt debut, and she can probably relax just a touch off the speed. The clear one to beat at a short price.


#2 Victoria E
She owns some speed, but she has a really good rating gear that should serve her well to spy the splits and get the jump on the top choice.


Race Summary
Enough Love should settle off the splits and finish here, and the hope is that several pace players will knock heads in the early going and come up empty late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Pocono Downs - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#4 AMAZING BET
Useful try off freshening for 23-percent barn, longshot stab.


#1 BEACH PARTY
Speed and rail and in the money in 3 of last 6 starts.


#2 SUCCESSION
Rallied for second behind 1-to-5 winner in latest.


Race Summary
Amazing Bet showed a pulse with first-time Lasix, making a third-quarter middle move before losing contact with the 8-5 winner and even-money runner-up. He looms an upset possibility with a move forward off that effort in his second start after two months away.


Running Aces - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#2 BEACH BUM BOB
Ran unopposed on lead but responded in a big way when asked.


#1 HOKEY TOOTS
Mare backed off to settle in third off layoff, got up for second in same race.


#7 RIGHTHEREIRGHTNOW
Solid numbers, blew stretch leads in last two starts.


Race Summary
Beach Bum Bob slowed the pace in the second quarter, accelerated through a :27.3 third-quarter split and found more late in a sharp effort. He can handle the class hike and enhance a 4-11 record. Play 2-1 and 2-7 exactas.


The Red Mile - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#4 SPOILERONTHEBEACH
Fits well in here if ready after four months away.


#5 ARNIE'S ANGEL
Broke single-file alignment after pace slowed, lacked kick, gets class relief.


#2 IDEAL ACE
In good form, rallied for second after fave back-pedaled through field.


Race Summary
Spoileronthebeach, competitive in nw/$4,000 spot at Northfield Park, starts fresh off good qualifier for trainer-driver. Thinking she can join $100,000 Club in this field. Play a 4-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Indiana Grand - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 Blazen Justice
Drops out of maiden special races and showed speed in each; that usually translates into strong effort on an initial class drop to maiden claiming.


#6 Overjoy
Can be close from the start, which is good because he hasn't closed ground in six starts; fits well.


#2 Rockin Justice
Makes his first career start and brings some decent workouts to the mix; can get a good trip here.


Race Summary
Blazen Justice makes his first drop to maiden claiming and can have something for the finish.


Indiana Grand - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#5 Brookville Storm
Dug in and secured the win against maidens in her 17th attempt; she put away challenges and showed courage in the drive. Looks like she's caught on to this.


#6 Porketta
Is much better than she was early in the season, thanks to a class drop in her last two; can be a factor as she steps back up.


#3 Cecilia's Hope
Was third in a similar spot last time in her first try against winners. Has blazing speed and will have to be at her very best to get the six furlongs.


Race Summary
Brookville Storm was sharp in a maiden win last time and her first attempt against winners looks anything but impossible; expect another good effort from an improving mare.


Indiana Grand - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#1 Miss Pinkerton
Was mid-pack in an allowance at Ellis after running second at Churchill; has been competitive in most of her races and can run well here.


#4 Signify
Was third in the same race as Miss Pinkerton and has been in the hunt in each of her five starts this year; speed makes her dangerous.


#8 Hungarian Princess
Was second in four of her last six (won the other two) and has been solid vs. state-breds; capable of running well vs. open company.


Race Summary
Miss Pinkerton has enough speed to stay within range and can benefit from the inside run; is much improved since the beginning of the year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs

Presque Isle Downs - Race 6

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8)



Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 6:50P


(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 20, 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2020 - 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * COMFORTABLE CAT: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MALARKEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ULTI MATE BARONESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OH MY PRECIOUS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at th e distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).



8

COMFORTABLE CAT

3/1


5/1




2

MALARKEY

7/2


5/1




7

ULTIMATE BARONESS

12/1


6/1




1

OH MY PRECIOUS

5/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

COMFORTABLE CAT

8


3/1

Front-runner

78


78


81.8


59.4


52.9




2

MALARKEY

2


7/2

Front-runner

69


62


60.2


63.8


58.8




4

YES IT'S ERIE

4


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

71


70


60.0


66.4


54.4




7

ULTIMATE BARONESS

7


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

80


69


48.0


66.4


59.9




1

OH MY PRECIOUS

1


5/1

Trailer

71


73


57.8


64.6


50.6




6

RICKEY'S GIRL

6


8/1

Trailer

78


69


38.3


60.7


46.7




9

SUPER DONNA G

9


9/2

Alternator/Non-contender

76


62


55.2


59.6


54.1




3

FRECKLES KAN

3


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

89


77


50.8


38.8


22.3




5

BLUEGRASS CANDY

5


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


72


49.4


60.6


55.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs



Assiniboia Downs - Race 3

.20 ASD JACKPOT PICK 5 (Races 3-7) .20 PICK 3 (Races 3-4-5) / .20 SUPERFECTA .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR / QUINELLA



Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 56 • Purse: $9,600 • Post: 8:35P


FOR MB/SASK/ND/SD BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TRULY N TERRIFIC: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. EYESPYMYLITTLEEYE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with a n inside post position. DIVINE RIDE: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. REMY RISING STAR: Today is a sprint and this is the h orse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



1

TRULY N TERRIFIC

4/5


5/1




3

EYESPYMYLITTLEEYE

10/1


5/1




4

DIVINE RIDE

5/1


6/1




6

REMY RISING STAR

3/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

EYESPYMYLITTLEEYE

3


10/1

Front-runner

66


57


75.2


46.2


40.2




1

TRULY N TERRIFIC

1


4/5

Front-runner

61


50


74.4


52.0


49.5




6

REMY RISING STAR

6


3/1

Front-runner

62


52


73.5


44.2


37.2




2

TAVI'S PRINCESS

2


25/1

Front-runner

52


34


0.0


0.0


0.0




4

DIVINE RIDE

4


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

61


58


65.2


46.6


42.6




5

COCO PADRINO

5


12/1

Trailer

60


39


32.0


44.0


34.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16200 Class Rating: 103

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS SINCE JULY 1, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 20 ALLOWED 4 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 PICTOR 6/5




# 3 HASHTAG WINNING 7/2




# 2 DROSSELMOON 9/2




PICTOR is my choice. Recently Kreiser has provided players with a competitive winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. Should come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the lead recently. His earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at him. HASHTAG WINNING - With a nice class rating average of 100, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group of horses in this race. Should be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone. DROSSELMOON - Perez has a very strong winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Risk takers get an edge when playing this conditioner in a dirt sprint race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 CHRISTY ATTACK (ML=5/1)


CHRISTY ATTACK - Don't throw this one out due to her last event at FanDuel Horse Racing where she ran fourth in the slop. Expect much better today. Horse has improved at least two speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that trend to continue right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 NURSE SADIE (ML=1/1), #5 LINDALOUIMAGE (ML=5/2), #3 LORI ATTACK (ML=6/1),

NURSE SADIE - This animal doesn't have a winning nature. Time-and-again finishes close, but no cigar. LINDALOUIMAGE - This filly finished off the board on May 15th and wasn't close last out either. LORI ATTACK - Awfully tough to bet on this less than sharp equine when she hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 CHRISTY ATTACK to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

None



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,100 Class Rating: 79

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 RUN FOR CASH (ML=6/1)
#3 BRODYTHEOXMAN (ML=8/5)


RUN FOR CASH - Using this jock/handler combination is a smart move. This gelding's last race was better than looked. He showed good early zip, dropped back a bit but held even through to the finish. Finished fifth at Mountaineer Park last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 in this race, he looks like a possible contender. BRODYTHEOXMAN - He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. When Lagunes and Lopez join forces on horses the return on investment has been wonderful at +50.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WILL DANCER (ML=7/5), #1 MERCY RULE (ML=5/1),

WILL DANCER - Would have to get better off that third place finish last time to make an impact here. MERCY RULE - Hard to put any money on this gelding on the top end. Likes to finish in the money though.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 RUN FOR CASH is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx RacingAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 68

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 BRAZEN 5/2




# 7 BEEBOO 9/5




# 1 J WASS 4/1




I give my vote to BRAZEN here. Has performed very well as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 82 avg speed fig. With Vargas controlling the reins on him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out early here. Must be given a chance based on the respectable speed rating put up in the last contest. BEEBOO - This entrant has been constatntly running well lately. Has respectable Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race. J WASS - Could beat this group given the 63 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in his last outing. His 61 average has this gelding with among the top Equibase speed figs for this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon Event: (913) Los Angeles Angels at (914) Oakland Athletics
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: July 20, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Angels Total Over 3.5 (-128) Action
My numbers have the Angels scoring 4.7 in this one. The Angels are 7th in MLB vs RHP, hitting hot right now and the A's have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Take the Angels to score 4 or more in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo Event: (927) Kansas City Royals at (928) Milwaukee Brewers
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: July 20, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -160 M Minor (LHP), E Lauer (LHP) Must Start
FREE PLAY: MILWAUKEE -160

Mike Minor goes for Kansas City and he has allowed 15 runs in his last 15 innings of work. Milwaukee counters with Eric Lauer who has allowed just 2 runs in his L18 innings of work. Look for Milwaukee to send Mike Minor to yet another early shower.

TAKE MILWAUKEE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia Event: (234221) Guadeloupe at (234222) Suriname
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks (https://www.wagertalk.com/free-sports-picks/soccer))
Date/Time: July 20, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Suriname -1.0 (-120)
Suriname has looked much better than Guadeloupe in this Gold Cup, and they will likely do whatever possible to come out of this one on top with the largest goal differential possible. Most of the quality players on the roster play out in the Netherlands, giving them a large advantage in this battle. Lay the goal and ride Suriname.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (925) Philadelphia Phillies at (926) New York Yankees
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: July 20, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -119 A Nola (RHP), D German (RHP) Must Start
925 Philadelphia Phillies at 926 New York Yankees -110, 9

The Philadelphia Phillies (47-45) are chasing New York in the National League East division, so what better place to be than the Big Apple on Tuesday night. The better place would be old Shea and now-Citi Field squaring off against a Metropolitans (48-42) team that is scuffling to find live arms to fill the rotation and consistency at the plate. However, the Phillies are at New Yankee Stadium for nine innings of playtime vs. the Bronx Bombers.

The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53 ERA), and he will oppose New York righthander Domingo German (4-5, 4.72). Both the Phils and the Yanks are playing for their seasons. Of course, this more applies to the Yankees than the Phils, but in totality, both dugouts know that every game is important across the final two months of the regular-season slate. The edge in this Tuesday night demographic rival goes to Philadelphia and Nola. The Phillies and ace Nola at a near pick'em price make the Phils a free pick steal.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan Event: (905) San Diego Padres at (906) Atlanta Braves
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: July 20, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: San Diego Padres -156 Y Darvish (RHP), K Muller (LHP) Must Start
PLAY: SAN DIEGO ML -156

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Jul 20 '21, 7:20 PM in 14m
MLB | Padres vs Braves
Play on: Padres -155 at William Hill

Free Play on Padres -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Jul 20 '21, 7:20 PM in 14m
MLB | SDG vs ATL
Play on: OVER 9 +100

Free Total Annihilator On Padres vs Braves over 9 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson Jul 20 '21, 7:40 PM in 34m
MLB | Rangers vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -118 at pinnacle

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Tuesday 7-20-21
Texas @ Detroit (7:10 PM EST)
Play On: Detroit -118 (Dunning/Skubal) Listed
The Texas Rangers take on the Tigers in Detroit on Tuesday night. Texas is 35-59 SU overall this year while Detroit comes in with a 44-51 SU overall record on the season. Dane Dunning is 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA on the road this year. Turak Skubal has a 3.78 ERA at home this season. Texas is 1-6 last 7 games overall where they are scoring only 1.4 runs per game while allowing 7.6 runs per game. Texas is 13-34 on the road this year allowing 5.6 runs per game. Texas is 0-9 this year on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. Texas is 18-48 last 3 years on the road when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness Jul 20 '21, 7:40 PM in 34m
MLB | Rangers vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -118 at pinnacle

My free play is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET.
The Texas Rangers went to back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 (lost both trips) and the Detroit Tigers made the World Series in 2012 (also lost). However, in 2021, those 'glory' years seem way more than just a decade ago. The Texas Rangers are in Detroit for a four-game series with the Tigers, with Detroit taking the first game of the series last night by the score of 14-0. The Rangers are now 35-59 and reside in last place in the AL West, 21 1/2-games back of the Astros. The Tigers lost 98 games in both 2017 and 2018 and then 114 games in 2019. So, their current record of 44-51 (.463) is quite an improvement. I'll have more shortly.
Tonight's starting pitchers saw their first major league action in 2020 but both are still considered rookies, as both threw less than 35 innings in limited action last season. Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.22 ERA) makes his 18th start of 2021 for Texas (team is just 5-12 in his starts) but his first since July 6. It should be noted that after the Rangers went 2-12 in his first 14 starts, the team has won his last three, with Dunning posting a 1.93 ERA. Detroit's Tarik Skubal (5-8, 4.36 ERA) has made 18 appearances in 2021 (16 starts) and while he took a loss in his last start prior to the All-Star break (allowed five runs, three earned in six IP), he had gone 4-0 with three no-decisions in his previous seven outings (team was 6-1).
Hard to make a case for Texas here, which is just 13-34 on the road (3rd-worst mark in MLB) plus Dunning's road ERA is 6.55, compared to 2.54 at home. As noted above, Detroit's Skubal has pitched pretty well as of late and the Tigers have come out of the All Star break with FOUR straight wins, outscoring the opposition 27-4! The Detroit pitching staff owns THREE shutouts in that span (one was of the seven-inning variety). The Tigers may be just 44-51 but their moneyline mark is plus-$918, which ranks 5th-best in all of MLB. Compare that to Texas, which at minus-$1,065, owns MLB's fifth-worst moneyline mark. Tigers roll again.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Jul 20 '21, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Twins vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -134 at BetVegas

1* Free Pick on White Sox -134