Tuesday 7/27/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's Five Takeaways - 7/27/21 July 27, 2021
From the week concluding July 25, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, handicapper and analyst

1 – It’s not called the “Graveyard of Favorites” for nothing. Unbeaten Malathaat (1/5) couldn’t lose the Coaching Club American Oaks-G1 at Saratoga, until she did. But that wasn’t the shocking part, because she performed as well as could be expected, actually earning a career top 96 Beyer after responding bravely to constant pressure before falling short by a head. What was unforeseen was the monumental step up in performance by Maracuja, who left 14-1 but would have been triple that price (at least) if there had been a full field of runners instead of just a four. This was the same Maracuja that was 37-1 when last seen finishing seventh (beaten more than seven lengths) in the Kentucky Oaks-G1 behind Malathaat and had gone three weeks without a recorded workout between June 13 and July 4, during which time she was getting over a “setback,” according to trainer Rob Atras.

But, make no mistake, the outcome was no fluke. After pressing Malathaat during the opening half mile, Maracuja began to retreat midway down the backstretch and found herself last approaching the half mile pole and appearing be done at that point. But, in an instant and apparently channeling her inner Billy Mills (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOj0zjPzg-c), she somehow managed to re-rally wide into the lane and then just kept on coming (“Look at Maracuja! Look at Maracuja!”). Despite this extraordinary performance, the daughter of Honor Code still has much to accomplish in order to enter the conversation for a year-end Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old filly. But now, at least, there’s a path. The Alabama S.-G1 (August 21) is next.


2 – “Can’t miss” favorites can get beaten at Del Mar, too, as witnessed by Going Global’s stunning defeat at 2/5 by a half-length to Madrone in the San Clemente S.-G2 on Saturday. Yes, she had been freshened for eight weeks and displayed a work tab that was light if not steady, but this was her first defeat in six starts since arriving in the States after the Irish-bred 3-year-old had compiled such a record that trainer P. D’Amato was speaking of her in terms of being the best grass filly he’d ever trained.

Though Flavian Prat provided no excuses (“the winner got the jump, but I got through”), jockeys always have been reluctant to position themselves outside entering the far turn in a Del Mar turf race for fear of being parked out and losing valuable ground, especially over a course with a bull ring equivalent stretch run of just 817 feet run. Nobody would dispute that an ideal trip on grass would be to save ground with cover and then quicken through the lane, but at Del Mar the ability to mount momentum, as Madone did outside in the clear from the mid-point of the far turn to the wire, is often just as effective and often times less problematic. While Prat and Going Global were bottled up for at least a furlong during the critical stage of the race, Madone was in full flight. That, more than anything, made the difference. We’ll see what happens when they meet again in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 Aug. 21.


3 – Jockey Kent Desormeaux took to his twitter feed to vent frustration following his suspension for three days after his mount in the Friday Del Mar first race, the debuting 2-year-old filly Seven Exes, was disqualified from fifth to sixth for shifting in at the break and causing crowding at the start of the race. After viewing the head on, it’s hard to believe that Kent was even called in, much less cited. Indeed, the filly veered in sharply and initiated a chain reaction, but it certainly appeared that the jockey did what he could to straighten her out after contact was made. Remember, this was a 2-year-old in her first career start. It happens.

Contrast this to jockey Kyle Fry’s premeditated gate break maneuver in the Del Mar 11th race on Saturday, July 17. Leaving from the rail midway up the turf chute, Fry, from the number one post position aboard Jimmy Blue Jeans, drifted out noticeably leaving the gate in what certainly appeared to be an attempt to gain a better angle entering the main course, but in doing so caused a reaction that completely sawed off the runner drawn right next to him, Wyfire, which clearly cost that colt valuable early position and arguably his best chance. Wyfire did manage to pick himself off the ground to eventually rally and wind up fourth, but there was no inquiry, no disqualification, and no days. This might be a video Kent should use as evidence to cite inconsistency, if nothing else, during his appeal hearing, assuming the ruling is still pending.


4 – Adayar, a son of Frankel who defeated terrific older rivals Mishriff and Love at Ascot on Saturday, became the first colt to win the Epsom Derby-G1 and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S.-G1 back-to-back since the brilliant Galileo pulled it off 21 years ago, and in doing so stamped himself as a top contender for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and a viable candidate for European Horse of the Year honors. And he may very well be good enough to do just that. But you have to wonder, as many English scribes are currently debating, is Adayar even is the best colt in Charlie Appleby’s yard? Yes, he did defeat his stable mate Hurricane Lane, who finished third in the Derby, but ‘Lane had a legitimate excuse (blew two shoes) before returning to win both the Irish Derby-G1 and the Grand Prix de Paris-G1. If everything goes well for both, the question may be settled on the first Sunday in October at Longchamp.

As for Mishriff, his trainer John Gosden sportingly made just a brief mention of the weight discrepancy (11 lbs.) afforded the 3-year-old Adayar on Saturday over his older rival while no doubt keeping in mind that such a weight break has helped him with many of his own 3-year-old in the past. Gosden said the Juddmonte International at York Aug. 18 is next for Mishriff. As for any long range plan for the Saudi World Cup winner, we’d have to think, the Breeders’’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on the first Saturday in November is in the back of trainer’s mind, as well.


5 – It took trainer Bob Baffert forever (or the Del Mar equivalent of six racing days) to saddle his first winner of the 2021 season, first when sending out the “other Baffert” Risk and Reward to a 7-1 upset victory over his 4/5 favored stable mate Bobby Bo in the Sunday opener, and then, in the next race, unveiling what appears to be an exceptional prospect with the 2-year-old Street Sense colt Murray, a strolling winner by almost 12 lengths despite being taken in hand and allowed to coast in the final 70 yards. The Beyer speed figure of 78, while quite good, didn’t quite meet the visual, but that’s fine.

Murray was produced by the Tiznow mare Now Now, who was unplaced in two starts but is a half-sister to Amsterdam S.-G2 winner Listen Here, to Pennsylvania Oaks winner Indy Bird, and to the stakes-placed dam of the terrific Grade-1 winning turf filly La Coronel, which means he has a right to run short or long, dirt or turf. Chances are he’s going to be good at something.
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From the week concluding July 18, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, Xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst

1 – The disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie in the Haskell S.-G1 – the fastest (and easiest) decision by a board of stewards we’ve seen since maybe ever – lands strictly on the shoulders of Flavien Prat, not Paco Lopez, not the no-whip rule, and certainly not Hot Rod Charlie, who didn’t lug in but was clearly steered in, either carelessly or purposely, by Prat. In a television interview the following day on TVG, Prat said he wasn’t even aware that his actions had placed Midnight Bourbon in close quarters in mid-stretch. “I had no clue what happened. It was just after the wire that I realized he was in between us.”

Well, folks, that’s the definition of carelessness. And Prat, a great jockey to be sure - head-and-shoulders above his colleagues on the Southern California circuit and never considered to be a rough or dirty rider - appeared to make a calculated mistake, that of assuming that Midnight Bourbon had dropped away and was clear of heel-clipping range. In leaning to his left in an effort to have Hot Rod Charlie better engage his main challenger Mandaloun, Prat did what he thought he needed to do in order to extract the maximum competitive energy from his colt. And the maneuver served its purpose, as Hot Rod Charlie indeed sensed the challenge, dug down deep and got the best of Mandaloun right at the wire.

We’ll never know which of the two would have crossed the wire first if Prat had not decided to change lanes without signaling; we can only be thankful that Midnight Bourbon (who managed to keep his feet in a truly magnificent display of athleticism) and Lopez (who must be thinking what the reaction would have been if HE had done what Prat did) weren’t injured.


2 – There were several superior performances last weekend by horse and trainer, not the least of which was the second straight victory by Althiqa (and now three-out-four in head-to-head battles) over Summer Romance in the Diana S.-G1 at Saratoga that produced yet another one-two finish from these two terrific Great Britain-based fillies. We expected the result of last month’s Just A Game S.-G1 to be reversed because of a highly favorable pace flow that likely would favor the front-running Summer Romance (it did), but Althiqa, despite being forced to rally wide into slow fractions, collared her Godolphin stable mate close home while continuing the superlative form that had been evident this past winter in Dubai.

It’s been reported in Daily Racing Form that both fillies will return to the States in the fall, Althiqua for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over 11 furlongs at Del Mar, and Summer Romance for the First Lady S.-G1 at Keeneland. We’re not sure there’s an American-based older filly or mare turf specialist who could beat either one of them right now.


3 – Just in time for the late-summer yearling sales, freshman stallion Practical Joke is off to highly-promising start at stud, with his first crop represented by Wit, now unbeaten in two starts, a six length maiden win at Belmont Park last month and then the Sanford S.-G3 over the weekend at Saratoga by eight lengths, with runner-up Headline Report more than five clear of the rest. If Wit turns out to be as accomplished a racehorse as his sire, that will be nice, but if you recall, Practical Joke was notorious for being almost unbeatable in one corner races but something far less than that when stretching out around two turns.

Though it’s far too early to pigeon-hole Wit as a late-running sprinter, at this stage of his young career, there is a strong possibility that is what he will prove to be. Assuming he stays healthy and continues on a logical schedule that should include the 7f Hopeful S.-G1 and then perhaps the 8F Champagne S.-G1, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt won’t have to cross that bridge until the 8.5 furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S.-G1 on the first Friday in November at Del Mar.


4 – And then there’s Gun Runner, who appears on the path to where his sire, Candy Ride, always has been. With his first foals racing this year, the Three Chimneys stallion already has sired eight winners (seven doing so in their debuts), perhaps none more impressive than the filly Echo Zulu, successful by five and one-half lengths at Saratoga opening day for her sire’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, in a performance that was assigned a 92 Beyer speed figure, 16 points better than what Pretty Bird earned when easily winning the Schuylerville S.-G3 later in the day.

While Echo Zulu has been the most impressive juvenile filly we’ve witnessed so far, we also very much liked what we saw at Del Mar from Smash Ticket in her victory on Saturday. Second to the very speedy Wicked Halo in her debut at Lone Star Park, the daughter of Midnight Lute (and a May foal, no less) earned a stakes-quality 78 Beyer speed figure in a five-length maiden romp, winning like a filly who seems certain to run on.


5 – News flash: the rail is death at Del Mar. Like always. Like it’s certain to be on Breeders’ Cup weekend in November, just as it was when Championship Day was held there four years ago. Yes, things could change (no, actually, they won’t), but during the first three days of the 2021 season, here are the stats for post position number one on dirt: Sprints (15 races, no wins, no seconds, three thirds). Routes: (5 races, no wins, no seconds, one third).

Meanwhile, horses drawn in either of the two extreme outside posts in all main track events have won 10 of the 19 races. So, when you open your Form and peruse the past performances charts, start from the outside and work your way down. If you find something you like right off the bat, circle it and just move on to the next race. Hey, just trying to make things easy.
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From the Weekend Concluding July 11, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, Xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst

1 – It may be difficult to truly appreciate the impact that Galileo had on thoroughbred racing, both on the track and in his record-setting career at stud. Arguably the sport’s most influential stallion in the past half-century if not of all time, the winner of both the Epsom Darby and the Irish Derby in 2001 was the product of 14-time champion sire Sadler’s Wells and Arc winner Urban Sea and thus truly epitomized the old saying, “breed the best to the best and hope for the best.” At stud, Galileo sired at last count 338 stakes winners, including the undefeated Frankel, certainly one of the greatest race horses in European history.

Galileo’s influence is guaranteed to carry on through his sons and daughters for as long as The Jockey Club keeps records. He was euthanized July 10 at the age of 23 due to a chronic injury to his left fore front, hours before his 3-year-old son of Bolshoi Ballet became his 91st Grade/Goup-1 winner when capturing the Belmont Derby-G1.


2 – Trainer Aidan O’Brien is properly regarded as one of the world’s greatest trainers but gamblers who have backed his Irish-based runners in New York in the past few years have been wondering what the hype is all about. Having a record of something like 1-for-61 prior to his sending Santa Barbara and Bolshoi Ballet across the pond gave many handicappers what proved to be an unnecessary reason for pause in the Belmont Oaks-G1 and Belmont Derby-G1, respectively, even though both imports appeared on resume to be absolute standouts. Both runners left at just slightly better than even money, with Santa Barbara accelerating impressively in the closing stages to win the Oaks as much best and then an hour later Bolshoi Ballet taking an overland journey to produce a smart score in the Derby.

It must be noted that they are 3-year-olds and thus have plenty of room for further development. However, neither are considered to be at the top of the list among those that could venture to Del Mar in the fall for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup festival, a scary thought for an American long distance turf contingent that, as usual, appears at the midpoint of the season to be only slightly above ordinary.


3 – It’ll be interesting to see if Oaklawn Park’s decision to move next year’s $1.2 million Arkansas Derby-G1 up to April 2, five weeks prior to the Run for the Roses rather than its traditional three week slot, has any impact on the placement of the yet-to-be-scheduled $750,000 Florida Derby-G1, which, if tradition holds, would be positioned to run on that same day. One would think that with a more lucrative purse of $450,000, the Arkansas Derby might be in line to attract the stronger field. However, when it comes to Kentucky Derby preparation, most horsemen are far less concerned about a purse discrepancy than taking the path of least resistance towards the accumulation of points that assures a spot in the starting line-up on the first Saturday in May.

Gulfstream Park management could move the Florida Derby to the next day (Sunday), wait a week and make it a Stronach Group coast-to-coast double header with the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby-G1, or simply stand pat. As a loyal employee, whatever management decides is officially fine by me.


4 – As impressive as any performance witnessed during the past weekend was the runaway romp by Bella Sofia in a first-level allowance sprint for 3-year-olds fillies Sunday at Belmont Park. The margin of victory (six and one-half lengths) and the manner in which the win was accomplished (she easily disposed of a pace rival and then drew off with a ton left) surely stamps the daughter of Awesome Patriot as a legitimate threat to repeat on the raise when facing graded stakes company at Saratoga. Though she won her debut by more than 11 lengths and then was beaten just a length by (at-the-time) undefeated Australasia in the listed Jersey Girl S. last month, this effort left her previous two outings far behind while earning an Equibase speed figure of 112, easily a career top.

It’s hard to believe that the Rudy Rodriguez-trained filly brought only $20,000 at the 2020 OBS June sale, though to be fair she was a sibling to nobody and her 10 2/5 seconds breeze during the preview session was visually average at best.


5 – It’s been getting worse by the year but in 2021 the proliferation of mis-timed fractions and final times of races throughout North America has reached a level of absurdity. Not a day goes by when horse players, especially those that depend on accurate speed figures as the backbone of their handicapping process, aren’t burdened with charts that are peppered with the infuriating “hand-timed” designation. What’s worse is when final times are clearly wrong, and the tracks don’t even both to issue a correction.

On Sunday alone, the Equibase official chart failed to list any fractions or final time associated with the featured River Memories Stakes at Belmont Park. We put a man on the moon more than 50 years ago. It shouldn’t be that difficult to accurately clock a horse race.
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From the Weekend Concluding July 5, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, Xpressbet.com handicapper/analyst

1 – The most significant performance of the extended holiday weekend comes courtesy of St Mark’s Basilica in his nothing-short-of-exceptional victory in the 10F Coral-Eclipse S.-G1 at Sandown on Saturday. After winning three previous Group-1 races against his own age group, including the Dewhurst S. at Newmarket, the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp and the French Derby at Chantilly, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt made a mockery of older rivals, chief among them Saudi Cup-G1 and Dubai Sheema Classic-G1 winner Mishriff, while producing the type of acceleration two furlongs out that only the great ones possess.

The French-bred son of Siyouni must now be rated the best horse in Europe, if not the entire planet, and would be a wonderful addition to any Breeders’ Cup field, though he may very well have other fish to fry overseas in the fall. "Of all the times we've trained horses through all the years, I can't remember that we've had (a performance) like that," said O'Brien.


2 – A critical race at Belmont Park for older horses, the 10F Suburban S.-G2, offered a rematch of the first two finishers from the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1, the unbeaten Happy Saver, and the Dubai World Cup-G1 winner Mystic Guide. But over a sloppy sealed surface that neither appeared to grab, it was Max Player (not Maxfield) who sprung the upset in a race that proved little other than the winner’s affinity for a muddy track.

A distant third in both the Belmont S.-G1 and the Travers S.-G1 last summer and then nowhere to be found in his four most recent races (including a 24-length drubbing to the aforementioned Mishriff in Saudi Arabia), the son of Honor Code was game in victory but earned only a 101 Beyer speed figure, an indication that the others ran down to his level, not the other way around. Attached to the victory is an all-expense paid ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 at Del Mar. But there will be no rain on the first Saturday in November in San Diego county.


3 – A legitimate Grade-1 front-runner such as Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 winner Knicks Go facing a handful of thoroughly outclassed rivals that have no chance to apply even a modest amount of early pressure is the perfect recipe for the easily predictable outcome of the 9F Prairie Meadows Cornhusker-G3 Friday evening. His 10 length margin of victory manufactured a career-top 113 Beyer Speed Figure while reaffirming what trainer Brad Cox said after the 5-year-old son of Paynter finished a fading fourth at 4/5 in the Met Mile in early June. “He’s a two-turn horse, was Cox’s simple but entirely accurate explanation.

Now, with 21 races on his resume, Knick’s Go clearly has established one other indisputable characteristic: when facing top class company; he is a dyed-in-the-wool need-the-lead type. Though unproven at 10 furlongs – but certain to stay the trip under pristine conditions - he could very well resurface at Del Mar August 21 for the $750,000 Pacifica Classic-G1 in what would serve as a dress rehearsal for the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 that will be staged over that same course and distance 11 weeks later. Mystic Guide could be headed in the same direction, as well.


4 – It’s the time of the year when we’re inclined to seek out potentially high-class, late-developing 3-year-olds – those that weren’t ready or seasoned enough for the Triple Crown – to make an impact in the sophomore ranks and perhaps even steal an Eclipse Award, such as what Arrogate did a few years back. While he’s nowhere near that level just yet, First Captain will have his chance to establish championship credentials at Saratoga, with the 10F Travers S.-G1 his late-summer goal. Unbeaten in three starts but yet to race farther than a mile, the son of Curlin, at 40 cents on the dollar, was workmanlike when grinding out a one and three-quarter length victory in the Dwyer S.-G3 at Belmont Park on Monday. The Beyer speed figure was a just okay 90, a career low.

However, Shug’s colt has a pedigree to excel over a classic distance and farther. In as division which currently has Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie squarely at the top, a new shooter such as this $1.5 million yearling purchase, may still be capable of bringing fresh blood and new life to a division that remains there for the taking.


5 – Gamine has been beaten just once in nine starts. She failed to see out the nine-furlong trip in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks-G1 when third (and then subsequently disqualified for a bad test) but has been otherwise perfect, most recently coasting home to register a 10-length romp in the 6.5F Great Lady M. S.-G2 at Los Alamitos on Monday. In any other year, she’d probably be sent to Saratoga, where she won the 2020 Test S.-G1 by seven lengths, but a trip to New York isn’t currently an option for trainer Bob Baffert. We anticipate Gamine will remain in the West and be given a run, perhaps two, to prepare to defend her title in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-G1.

The Rancho Bernardo (Aug. 20) at Del Mar logically would be next, but that race is just a Grade-3 with a $100,000 guaranteed purse and will be carded under handicap conditions, so you have to wonder just how much weight she’d be asked to carry in order to make the race competitive. Facing males eight days later in the 7F Pat O’Brien for twice the purse money (it’s a win-and-your-in race, too) might be a better option, especially under the 122 lb. impost she would carry, according to the conditions of the race.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday Myths: Are Beaten Favorites Bad Bet-Backs? July 26, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Stand against beaten favorites when they return at the same level of competition.

Background:

Terms like money burner, money hole and money pit are among the kinder things said by disgruntled horseplayers when discussing a public choice who failed to find the winner’s circle. But these public choices often take significant money upon their reappearances.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at every Thoroughbred race across North American for the past 3 years, going back to July 26, 2018. Filters for beaten favorite last race and similar class of races were put in place. I also looked at how beaten favorites performed when the public stuck with them as favorites in the return as well.

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Beaten favorites in maiden claiming races win 23.8% next time with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in maiden special weight races win 24.1% next time with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in claiming races win 23.0% next time with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in allowance races win 21.5% next time with a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in listed stakes races win 22.8% next time with a $0.84 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in graded stakes races win 21.8% next time with a $0.77 ROI for every $1 bet.

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When last-out beaten favorites are bet to favorite again in the return race …

Beaten favorites in maiden claiming races win 39.7% next time with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in maiden special weight races win 39.7% next time with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in claiming races win 39.0% next time with a $0.86 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in allowance races win 37.9% next time with a $0.84 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in listed stakes races win 40.2% next time with a $0.87 ROI for every $1 bet.

Beaten favorites in graded stakes races win 42.1% next time with a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:

Beaten favorites win between 21-24% across the various class levels when returning for the same price with an ROI between $0.75 and $0.84 for every $1 bet. They win at a slightly higher percentage at the lower class levels (maidens, claiming), but were most profitable in listed stakes races. Those same horses when bet back to favoritism a second time win between 37.9-42.1% with an ROI between $0.82 and $0.89. The most successful and profitable favorites in a second go-around came in graded stakes at the game’s highest level.

Bottom line:

The public is very astute. When you consider that favorites nationally win about 37-38%, losing favorites coming back and only able to win in the low 20% area is significant. But notice the huge rise when the public sticks with a beaten favorite. Those win percentages and ROI jump and actually are stronger the favorites overall, meaning a beaten favorite bet back to favoritism for the same price is actually a better bet than any normal favorite. As for the validity of the “bet against beaten favorites” theory, I’d say follow the tote. The public tends to get these kind right.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which trainers do you follow or fade with these beaten favorites? My test drive saw trainer Mac Robertson winning 56% when sending out a beaten favorite that is bet back to favoritism next out, while Jeff Radosevich and Tim Kreiser hit 53% and Larry Rivelli was right at 50%.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Parx Racing - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 Uncle Ernie
He rolled a cheaper bunch in MCL company on debut, but he showed some pace that day that should serve him well in a spot without a ton of committed front-end pace.


#4 I Am Redeemed
He might appreciate the move back around one turn after just fading late in that route try last time out. Tactical type should be in range throughout.


#2 You Must Chill
He came back no worse for wear after the layoff, rattling off a couple nice wins, and holding that kind of form might be enough to land this one.


Race Summary
Uncle Ernie has some pace on this hike, and the fence figures to force his rider's hand out of the gate. If he's able to secure the lead into the turn, he might be able to handle this group.


Parx Racing - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#3 Eight Danzas
She caught a super impressive winner who was back to handle allowance company with ease, and something like that last effort might be good enough with this group.


#6 Queen of Mine
She's another who chased a runaway winner last time out, and she has some upside with that debut run under her belt. Better with Lasix today?


#5 Billieanne
She hasn't shown much yet, but she has taken action in both starts and now gets blinkers for the first time. A wake-up call would not be a surprise today.


Race Summary
Eight Danzas was no match for the very talented Oxana in that last one, but this spot doesn't seem to contain any similar star power. The 5/1 ML price would be appealing.


Parx Racing - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#10 Pylon
He has some speed to use in a race without much other serious early burn, and he has the pedigree to handle the new footing as he tries the turf for the first time.


#8 Bouncing Around
He becomes much more dangerous if this one comes off the lawn, but the overall form is there to be a danger on any footing.


#3 Mt Suribachi
His form is darkened by some iffy dirt tries, but his turf form has been really sharp. He's a reliable finisher at what might be an underlaid price.


Race Summary
Pylon tries the turf for the first time today, and his early pace should make him the one to catch into the far turn at a square price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Indiana Grand - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#2 Sting Like Abby
Had a dominant five-length win here in the only start of her career and in doing so finished in 1:10; a repeat effort gets a repeat win.


#3 Auntie Mabel
Won two straight and then the string was ended last time when she was second going long; turns back and can make a run.


#6 Orsetto
Tired in the Rags to Riches at Churchill last fall and comes off a nine-month layoff; can be a factor from the beginning.


Race Summary
Sting Like Abby ran off to an easy win and signaled she could be a special runner, especially on the local scene; one to beat.


Indiana Grand - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#8 Longleggedlaverne
Ran fourth in a similar race three races back and has some strong performances on her form, including a win at Fair Grounds.


#1 Malibu Moira
Crushed starter allowance runners at Belterra last out and was third in a turf race two back at Indiana Grand; can be a factor on either surface.


#3 Antalya
Was up in time in a good optional claiming race at Arlington and tries to get her first Indiana Grand win in what will be her third local start.


Race Summary
Longleggedlaverne rompoed on the main track two back and the switch to turf will not hurt her chances; capable of taking this one.


Indiana Grand - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Strong Illusion
Tired late in her last two turf races but the Marvin Johnson stable has done well lately; overdue for her second win.


#4 Naughty Justice
Ran second last out and will be a strong player on the front end.


#1 Miss Fort
Can benefit from following a good pace; likely to make some time of eye-catching run through the final quarter.


Race Summary
Strong Illusion has taken on decent company and has a good chance to dig in vs. these; can improve on the third-place finish he had last out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings



Hastings - Race 5

Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)



Claiming $16,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 69 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:52P


(PLUS UP TO $3,750 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ; A RACE SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,750 TO $12,500 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES) BC BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. PAY MY WAY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PAY MY WAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figur e at the distance/surface. FOOT SOLDIER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



2

PAY MY WAY

6/5


3/1




4

FOOT SOLDIER

8/5


9/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

FOOT SOLDIER

4


8/5

Front-runner

79


64


74.2


58.4


51.4




1

PRETTY ARIA

1


10/1

Alternator/Front-runner

62


62


58.0


42.4


32.4




2

PAY MY WAY

2


6/5

Alternator/Stalker

78


67


55.2


65.2


61.7




5

ONE FIFTY ONE

5


5/1

Trailer

69


53


59.1


55.2


49.2




6

ARBEE'S RUN

6


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

66


62


68.2


53.0


44.5




3

SHANGHAI POSSE

3


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

66


61


46.8


55.8


48.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes



Finger Lakes - Race 3

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5)



Claiming $11,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $17,200 • Post: 2:08P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CURLIN'S KNIGHT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNCLE NED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CURLIN'S KNIGHT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BIJEMINI SLEW: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



3

UNCLE NED

8/5


3/1




7

CURLIN'S KNIGHT

12/1


7/1




6

BIJEMINI SLEW

8/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

CURLIN'S KNIGHT

7


12/1

Alternator/Front-runner

78


61


47.2


55.8


48.8




3

UNCLE NED

3


8/5

Stalker

77


78


70.2


72.6


68.1




8

SHADOW CASTER

8


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

68


59


62.4


56.0


45.5




6

BIJEMINI SLEW

6


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

74


62


61.0


61.4


54.9




4

DUBLIN GREEN

4


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

71


71


72.4


47.4


35.9




2

RINGGOOD

2


7/2

Alternator/Non-contender

70


66


57.8


53.0


45.0




1

YOU'VE GOT MALE

1


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

49


59


54.3


42.2


28.7




5

TRY'N SMART'N UP

5


9/2

Alternator/Non-contender

67


64


49.8


49.2


39.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $33300 Class Rating: 66

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 TRAITOR AMONGST US 8/1




# 5 MIDNIGHT WARSHIP 9/2




# 1 TO WIN 5/2




TRAITOR AMONGST US is the strongest wager in this race and is a formidable value bet given the line. The speed figure of 66 from his last race looks very good in here. He has put up very good figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group. Over time, this conditioner has a respectable ROI at this distance/surface. MIDNIGHT WARSHIP - With Rivera controlling the reins on him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this competition. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. TO WIN - Has to be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last race. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 LOUISIANA RUNNER 4/1




# 8 JJ CARTERS CARTEL JR 10/1




# 2 CASH SHINES 3/1




LOUISIANA RUNNER is the top wager in this race. Has respectable front-end speed and will most likely fare soundly versus this field. If you look closely, this entrant has some longshot potential. With a very strong 72 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this outing. JJ CARTERS CARTEL JR - Has been running admirably lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. Must be considered given the class of races run lately. CASH SHINES - He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this group. Is a solid contender - given the 54 speed figure from his most recent race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 CUMBERLAND GAP (ML=5/2)


CUMBERLAND GAP - Trainer Shea gave this gelding a good stiff morning drill. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a solid contest within the last 30 days. This gelding's last speed fig registered on Jul 13th is utmost in last race speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 PETTINBERG (ML=7/5), #6 TIZ SAMURAI (ML=4/1), #4 IRONBOUND (ML=6/1),

PETTINBERG - Can't really play this kind of oft beaten chalk. TIZ SAMURAI - Awfully difficult to bet on this vulnerable equine when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness recently. The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not playing this racer off of that trend. IRONBOUND - I'd like to see more hospitable recent outings with morning line of 6/1.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #1 CUMBERLAND GAP on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with 5



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:54pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 PRINCESS MANDII (ML=2/1)
#2 HIDDEN FIGURE (ML=5/1)


PRINCESS MANDII - Taking this jock/handler combination is a good decision. This mare is in fine physical condition, having run a good race on Jul 13th, finishing second. I like the piece of information that this mare's last rating, 52, is tops in this field. HIDDEN FIGURE - When Bailon and Essenpreis combine forces on horses the return on investment has been fantastic at +213.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ABBMAR (ML=7/2), #5 PRETTY GITA (ML=4/1), #4 NEXT TIME YOU WIN (ML=9/2),

ABBMAR - You always think this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she falters most of the time. Garnered a common speed figure last time around the track in a $4,000 Maiden Claiming race on July 6th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. PRETTY GITA - Don't feel this less than sharp equine will make an impact today. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's Equibase class figure.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #3 PRINCESS MANDII to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

951MILWAUKEE -952 PITTSBURGH
MILWAUKEE is 39-25 SU (14.9 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in the current season.

953WASHINGTON -954 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 11-21 SU (-16.2 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

955ATLANTA -956 NY METS
NY METS are 23-9 SU (14.9 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

957CINCINNATI -958 CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-17 SU (17.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

959LA DODGERS -960 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 35-12 SU (25.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current season.

961TORONTO -962 BOSTON
BOSTON is 26-8 SU (17.2 Units) as an underdog of +100 or higher in the current season.

963NY YANKEES -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 32-13 SU (20.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.

965DETROIT -966 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 26-57 SU (-39 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

967CHI WHITE SOX -968 KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX is 34-19 SU (20.1 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

969HOUSTON -970 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 19-5 SU (13.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, July 27

https://i.ibb.co/q5gL9NL/Screenshot-2021-07-27-at-06-27-02-MLB-Baseball-Picks-The-Dunkel-Index.png (https://ibb.co/hfdxHBx)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Tuesday, July 27

Trend Report

Miami @ Baltimore
Miami
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home

St. Louis @ Cleveland
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

Atlanta @ NY Mets
Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games at home

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Cincinnati @ Chi Cubs
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Arizona @ Texas
Arizona
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games

Chi White Sox @ Kansas City
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Chi White Sox is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home

Colorado @ LA Angels
Colorado
Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Angels
LA Angels is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games

LA Dodgers @ San Francisco
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Oakland @ San Diego
Oakland
Oakland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland

Houston @ Seattle
Houston
Houston is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, July 27

https://i.ibb.co/GtQ9gkC/Screenshot-2021-07-27-at-09-08-05-MLB-Weather-Report-Find-Upcoming-Conditions-for-the-MLB.png (https://ibb.co/61086bD)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends for Tuesday July 27
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Cubs are 12-0 SU since Jun 07, 2018 at home offwalk off win as a favorite.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Pirates are 0-12 SU since May 23, 2021 off a game as a dog in which they did not score after the third inning.

OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Yankees are 0-10 OU (-2.90 ppg) since Sep 24, 2019 as a road dog after their bullpen allowed multiple runs last game.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Twins are 0-8 OU (-2.31 ppg) since Aug 18, 2020 when Kenta Maeda starts after a quality start in his last outing.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Tue (MLB) Rangers
Tue (MLB) W. Sox
Tue (MLB) Astros

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | MIL vs PIT
Play on: OVER 8½ -114

1 Dimer on Brewers vs Pirates over 8½ -114

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | MIA vs BAL
Play on: UNDER 9½ -105

Free Total Annihilator On Marlins vs Orioles under 9½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | MIA vs BAL
Play on: UNDER 9½ -117

Marlins (Alcantara) vs. Baltimore (Watkins)
Two skilled starters. The low-offense Marlins. The struggling Orioles. Decent relievers on both teams of late. A relatively high total. Sounds like a recipe for a low scoring affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Marlins vs Orioles
Play on: Orioles +127 at linepros

FREE PICK - Baltimore Orioles +127
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 972
The Orioles are not a team the public likes to back and I think we are getting some big time value because of it. Baltimore is playing well. They have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 8. They have put up 5 or more runs in all 6 wins during this stretch.
With extremely hot temperatures and a struggling Sandy Alcantara (4.15 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in his last 3 starts), you have to like the Orioles' offense to stay hot Tuesday night.
The other big thing here is who Baltimore has on the mound. Spenser Watkins has really impressed in his first look at the big league level. He's made 3 starts and has a sensational 1.76 ERA and 1.239 WHIP. It wasn't a cake walk either. Those 3 starts came against the Rays, White Sox and Blue Jays, who have 3 of the 4 best records in the AL right now. Give me the Orioles +127

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Jul 27 '21, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Brewers vs Pirates
Play on: Brewers -115 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Brewers -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Jul 27 '21, 7:10 PM in 1h
MLB | TOR vs BOS
Play on: OVER 10½ -115

1* Free Pick on Blue Jays/Red Sox over 10½ -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price Jul 27 '21, 8:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rangers
Play on: Diamondbacks +133 at SC Consensus

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Arizona Diamondbacks +133
The Key: The Texas Rangers have no business being favored over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. The Rangers are 0-12 in their last 12 games overall and have been outscored 80-20 during this skid. The Arizona Diamondbacks come in playing some of their best ball of the season in going 5-2 in their last 7 games. Tayler Widener is 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in 7 starts this year for the Diamondbacks. Dane Dunning is 3-7 with a 4.30 ERA in 18 starts this year for the Rangers. Dunning has pitched 5 or fewer innings in 9 straight starts and in 15 of his 18 starts this year. Take Arizona.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness Jul 27 '21, 8:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -132 at linepros

My free play is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.
The Texas Rangers are currently on a 12-game losing streak, just three games away from matching the worst in franchise history (a 15-game losing streak back in 1972). However, the Rangers have some competition for "worst team in the AL," as the Baltimore Orioles sit 34-64. Texas has been outscored 80-20 during the streak and has been blanked three times and scored just one run in four other games. Sunday's 3-1 loss to the Houston Astros marked the end to an 0-10 road trip. Texas opens a nine-game homestand Tuesday night when it welcomes the Arizona Diamondback to Globe Life Field for the first contest of a brief two-game IL series. Unlike Texas, Arizona has NO competition as the NL's worst team, as the 31-70 D'backs are EIGHT games behind the 38-61 Pittsburgh Pirates, who own the NL's second-worst record. In fact, Arizona owns an unwanted MLB 'triple crown' as the D'backs not only own MLB's worst overall record but they also own MLB's worst money line mark at minus-$3,252 (over $1,000 more than any other team) plus own MLB's worst run-differential at minus-150 runs.
The starting pitchers for Tuesday will be Arizona's Taylor Widener (1-0, 3.55 ERA) and for Texas it will be Dane Dunning (3-7, 4.30 ERA). Widener made 12 appearances in 2020 (all in relief), going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in just 20 innings. He's still considered a rookie in 2021, as he takes the mound for his eighth start. Widener has been back-and-forth between the majors and minors this season and also spent some time on the 10-day injured list, after sustaining a right groin strain against the Colorado Rockies back on May 23. He picked up his lone win in his 2021 season debut (way back on April 4 in a 3-1 win at San Diego in which he pitched six scoreless innings) but enters on a streak of six consecutive no-decisions (Arizona is 3-3). Dane Dunning (3-7, 4.30 ERA) pitched just 34 innings in 2020, although unlike Widener, made seven starts (2-0 with a 3.97 ERA). This marks his 19th start of 2021 for Texas (team is just 5-13 in his starts) but only his second since July 6. It should be noted that after the Rangers went 2-12 in his first 14 starts, the team had won his last three, with Dunning posting a 1.93 ERA. However, on June 20, he allowed three ERs over 4.2 innings in a 4-1 loss at Detroit.
Ain't it about time for Texas to break through with a win? The Diamondbacks have had a DREADFUL 2021. They have suffered a franchise-high 17-game losing streak and another stretch of 13 consecutive defeats during a season in which they got off to a 15-13 start, before losing 50 of their next 58 games. Arizona set a major league record with 24 consecutive road losses from May 4 through June 25 and comes to Texas 12-40 in road games on the season. C'mon Rangers! If not here, when?
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Jul 27 '21, 8:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -145 at BetVegas

1* Free Play on Rangers -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns Jul 27 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | CWS vs KC
Play on: OVER 9½ -112

While I won with the 'under' in yesterday's game, I'm expecting to see some more offense this evening. Yesterday, I said this of the KC starter: "Minor was sharp last time out, as he allowed just one earned run through six complete. Last time that he faced the White Sox, he allowed only two hits and one run, through seven complete." I also said this about the Chicago starter: "Keuchel had a bad start on 7/3, which had an effect on his recent numbers. However, he's since allowed just three runs in his next two starts combined. In fact, he's allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his past nine starts, four in one of the others. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his past seven. It should also be mentioned that Keuchel's last four starts against KC have all fallen below the number." Things set up differently today. KC starter Keller has an ugly 7.19 ERA, in nine home starts, to go along with a 1.645 WHIP. Meanwhile, Chicago starter Cease has a 6.28 ERA (1.479 WHIP) in 10 road starts. Not surprisingly, the 'over' is 7-2-1 in those games. I see this one reaching double digits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander Jul 27 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | White Sox vs Royals
Play on: White Sox -141 at linepros

1* MLB - White Sox/Royals FREE PICK on White Sox -141
Tuesday's Free MLB Pick is on the Chicago White Sox as a -141 road favorite against the Kansas City Royals. Dylan Cease will get the ball for Chicago and he's got a 3.13 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 6 career starts vs the Royals. He's made 2 starts against them this year and allowed just 1 run on 7 hits in 10 innings. Brad Keller has faced the White Sox 3 times in 2021, giving up 9 runs on 16 hits and 7 walks in 14 1/3 innings. Keller also has an ugly 7.19 ERA and 1.645 WHIP in 9 home starts this season. Bet the White Sox -141!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Jul 27 '21, 8:10 PM in 2h
MLB | White Sox vs Royals
Play on: White Sox -140 at linepros

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Chicago White Sox -140
The Chicago White Sox have lost four of their last five and will be looking to rebound against the Kansas City Royals tonight. The White Sox go with Dylan Cease, who is 7-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 20 starts this season. Cease has posted a 0.87 ERA in his two starts against the Royals in 2021. Kansas City goes with Brad Keller, who is 7-9 with a 5.84 ERA in 20 starts. The White Sox are 46-17 in their last 63 games as favorites. The Royals are 38-84 in their last 122 home games against a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 15-5 in the last 20 meetings. Chicago is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Kansas City. Give me the White Sox.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Jul 27 '21, 9:38 PM in 3h
MLB | Rockies vs Angels
Play on: Rockies +133 at SC Consensus

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Rockies +133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Jul 27 '21, 9:45 PM in 3h
MLB | Dodgers vs Giants
Play on: Giants +110 at William Hill

Free Play on Giants +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Jul 27 '21, 10:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Astros vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners +148 at SC Consensus

Free Pick on Mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Jul 27 '21, 10:10 PM in 4h
MLB | A's vs Padres
Play on: A's +137 at SC Consensus

1* on A's +137

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Jul 27 '21, 10:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Astros vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners +152 at SC Consensus

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Seattle Mariners +152
The Seattle Mariners are playing with a ton of confidence right now. They are 4-0 in their last four games overall despite being an underdog in all four. After three straight wins over the A's, they rallied from a 7-0 deficit to beat the Astros 11-8 last night.
Now the Mariners come back as +150 underdogs to the Astros with underrated starter Chris Flexen on the mound. Flexen is 9-4 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 18 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 6-3 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
Seattle is 20-8 in its last 28 games as an underdog. The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five home meetings with the Astros. Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach Jul 27 '21, 10:10 PM in 4h
MLB | HOU vs SEA
Play on: UNDER 8½ -120

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #970 Tuesday Free Pick UNDER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros @ 10:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a crazy 11-8 Mariners win. Prior to this game, 5 of Seattle's 6 preceding games had resulted in an under. McCullers starts for Houston here and he is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA on the road this season. Flexen starts for Seattle here and he is 6-3 with a 1.89 ERA at home this season. Free Pick UNDER the total in Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ricky Tran Jul 27 '21, 10:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Astros vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners +1½ -110 at pinnacle

Ricky's 1* play on Seattle RL.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Astros are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Seattle.
- The Mariners are 20-8 in their last 28 games as an underdog.
- The Mariners are 4-0 in their last four games as a home underdog.
Verdict: The Mariners look good as a home dog here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Investment Picks (https://www.cappertek.com/picks.asp?shs=BestSportsPicksToday.com)
MLB
CLEVELAND INDIANS +100
1
0
+100


Insider Sports Report (http://www.insidersportsreport.com/)

No pick yet
1
0
+100


Tommy King Wins (http://www.tkwins.com/)
MLB
TAMPA BAY RAYS ‑150
0
1
-100


Joe Wiz (https://www.joewizsports.com/)
MLB
TORONTO BLUE JAYS ‑125
0
1
-110


Mikey Money (http://www.sleeperselections.com/)

No pick yet
0
1
-120


Hottie4Sports (https://twitter.com/Hottie4Sports)

No pick yet
0
1
-155


Top Shelf Sports Pick (https://www.cappertek.com/picks.asp?shs=BestSportsPicksToday.com)

No pick yet
0
1
-160


XS Sports Picks (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1132323&page=12)

No pick yet
0
1
-165


Big Dawg Sports (https://www.facebook.com/groups/902366090629974)
MLB
OAKLAND ATHLETICS/SAN DIEGO PADRES ‑150
0
0
0


Mikey Sports (http://www.mikeysports.com/)
MLB
MILWAUKEE BREWERS ‑135
0
0
0


R and R Totals (http://www.randrtotals.com/)
MLB
CHICAGO WHITE SOX/KANSAS CITY ROYALS o9.5
0
0
0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2.
Insider Sports Report (https://www.insidersportsreport.com)
MLB
Milwaukee -135
0-1 (-110)
3-1 (+200)


3.
Doc's Picks (http://www.docspicks.com)
MLB
Phillies -115
1-0 (+100)
3-1 (+190)


4.
Top Rank Sports Picks (http://www.topranksportspicks.com)
MLB
White Sox -145
1-0 (+100)
4-2 (+110)


5.
Profit On Sports (https://www.profitonsports.com)
MLB
St. Louis -115
1-0 (+130)
4-3 (+80)


6.
National Sports Service (https://www.nationalsportsservice.com/)
MLB
Orioles under 9.5
0-0 (+0)
3-3 (-15)


7.
The Spot Player (http://www.thespotplayer.com)


0-0 (+0)
3-3 (-65)


8.
The Sports Consensus (https://www.thesportsconsensus.com)
MLB
Phillies -115
1-0 (+100)
3-4 (-145)


9.
Elite Sports Picks (https://www.elite-sports-picks.com)
MLB
Yankees +130
1-0 (+100)
1-6 (-545)


10.
Primetime Sports Picks (http://www.primetimesportspicks.com/)
MLB
Phillies over 10
0-1 (-120)
1-6 (-690)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Winners for Tuesday, July 27th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Marlins @ Orioles
TIME: 7:05 PM EST
PICK: Bet OVER 9.5 @ Bovada (https://www.nsawins.com/go/bovada/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tuesday, July 27th, 2021 from VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!FREE MLB PICKS
Marlins @ Orioles
TIME: 7:05 PM EST
PICKS: BET Marlins -140 @ BOVADA (https://www.nsawins.com/go/bovada/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
Sports Services
Free Sports Picks
Place A Bet


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
MLB – Pirates +115
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642GfsGTz_YfB9onf8DuVAkVka/0/)


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
MLB – Red Sox +120
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


3.
Winning Big Sports (https://www.winningbigsports.com)
MLB – Twins -180
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


4.
PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY) (https://www.pointspreadreport.com)
MLB – Orioles +130
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


5.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
MLB – Athletics over 8.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


6.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
MLB – Diamondbacks +125
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


7.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
MLB – Indians +100
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


8.
NSA(Gerry “Big Cat” Andino) (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
MLB – Twins over 9
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


9.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com)
MLB – Cubs -180
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


10.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
MLB – Pirates over 8.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


11.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/)
MLB – Yankees +130
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


12.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
MLB – Giants +110
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


13.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/)
MLB – Red Sox +120
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


14.
SCORE (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)
MLB – Astros -160
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
MLB – Orioles +130
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


16.
Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
MLB – Yankees +130
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


17.
Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
MLB – Diamondbacks +125
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


18.
VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
MLB – Angels -135
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
MLB – Padres -150
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)
MLB – Indians under 9.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
MLB – Astros over 8
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
MLB – Yankees +130
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
MLB – Pirates +115
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
MLB – Red Sox +120
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Twins -180
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: San Diego w/Paddack -130 over Oakland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist Jim Feist's Comp Pick, TUESDAY JULY 27, 2021
7/27 04:05 PM PT / 7:05 PM ET

MLB (971) MIAMI MARLINS VS (972) BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Take: (971) MIAMI MARLINS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: NY YANKEES/TAMPA BAY OVER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Tuesday's Free Selection: Houston Astros/Seattle Mariners under 8 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Tuesday Selection Is
MILWAUKEE w/Anderson -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: St Louis Cardinals w/Wainwright +100 over Cleveland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Tuesday : Take NY YANKEES/TAMPA BAY OVER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play TUESDAY, JULY 27, 2021

FREE MLB
971. Marlins -1.27 (4:05 PT / 7:05 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Tuesday's Free Pick: Detroit Tigers + 190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph FreePlay TUES Twins w/ Maeda-210

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Last Call Tuesday's Free Play: Chicago White Sox - 146

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports FREE PICK 7/27 MLB DETROIT +190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Tuesday: MIAMI/BALTIMORE UNDER the total of 9½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Tuesday: Detroit Tigers + 190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Tuesday: Mia/Wash OVER 9 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Anthony Sports Your John Anthony Free Selection for Tuesday:
Det/Minn UNDER 9 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Sacco Tony Sacco's Free Play for Tuesday:
Tor/Bost UNDER 10½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hollywood Anthony Your Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take Kansas City Over 10