Tuesday 8/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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Monday Myths: Should You Avoid Rookies from the Rail? August 2, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Don’t bet a first-time starter from the rail.

Background:

A common handicappers’ stance is to avoid rail-drawn first-time starters. The theory is that they are forced to break with the pack and be hard-used early, otherwise they will be shuffled back as the field comes down up on them. Inexperienced horses aren’t expected to overcome adversity in their opening act.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters over the past 5 years (Aug. 1, 2016-present). The study included how they fared from the rail draw at sprint distances of 6 furlongs or less as well as how they fared in comparison to other winning posts. The study also looked at rail runners by field size. And, I also looked at debut 2-year-olds vs. debut runners of all ages.

//

Post 1 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 2 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 3 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 4 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 5 first-time starters win 10.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 6 first-time starters win 9.8% with a $0.69 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 7 first-time starters win 10.1% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 8 first-time starters win 8.7% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 9 first-time starters win 8.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 10 first-time starters win 8.0% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 11 first-time starters win 6.9% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 12 first-time starters win 5.4% with a $0.46 ROI for every $1 bet.

//

Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 6 or less win 14.5% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 7-9 win 10.5% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 10-12 win 8.0% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.

//

Post 1 first-time starters as 2-year-olds win 11.7% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 3-year-olds win 9.1% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 4-year-olds win 8.4% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:
Posts 3-4-5 score at the highest rates among first-time starters in sprint races, with the inside two posts next-best. There’s a considerable drop off in win percentage from post 8 and beyond. No doubt larger field sizes have an impact in lowering the win rate for the rail. As for the performance of rail-drawn rookies by age, the 2-year-olds by far had the best win rate and ROI.

Bottom line:

While the rail may not be the ideal spot for a first-time starter, the statistics show it’s not nearly the automatic toss some handicappers exaggerate. You could make the argument that in the largest field sizes, you had better have the best horse to win from the fence.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which tracks have been best for rookies from the rail? Delaware Park has seen 16.5% winners in this situation, best nationally. Also see which jockeys negotiate it best (hint: Carol Cedeno and Emisael Jaramillo have excelled).

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Parx Racing - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#3 Kolohe Prince
He doesn't have a ton of excuses at this point, but there is almost no pace signed on in here, and he has occasionally shown some ability to sit near the top. Drop might do the trick.


#5 Niangua
This guy comes right back at the same level while testing the locals for the first time after the Churchill run, and he's probably quick enough to find a spot near the front.


#6 Field Officer
He will be making his 36th career start, so he's not bringing any upside to the table, but he might land a decent tracking trip. Underneath.


Race Summary
Kolohe Prince looks like one of the obvious two in here, and the price here might be slightly better than the offering on the Churchill invader Niangua.


Parx Racing - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#5 Liam's Lady
The only turf try wasn't much, but it came with better back in June, and she's worth a look at this kind of level with the blinkers on while getting Pennington up -- an ace in these types of races.


#7 Superhelpful
Some of her best tries have come on the grass, so there's reason to think she might be able to hold form after bouncing back in a big way off the claim last time out. Tough.


#9 Cape Elizabeth
She has never been in this easy, but her form isn't all that exciting, and she's probably not going to offer a playable kind of number here.


Race Summary
Liam's Lady didn't pick up on the turf in June, but there just isn't anything to write home about in here, so anything like the 6/1 ML price would be very appealing with a top pilot in this kind of race.


Parx Racing - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 Charity Stripe
Demand a fair price here, because she has been in a bit deep at this level in the past. That said, she's protected off the claim and gets what might be a favorable race shape to finish into. Along late at a mid-range price?


#4 Le Petite Papillon
She has turned into a pretty serious early burner since adding blinkers for the new barn, and I don't have any knocks on form, but there are a couple of other 44-and-change types lined up that might leave her vulnerable late.


#1 Bucks Some
She's quick enough to be in the mix early, but she might benefit most from trying to settle in the pocket just a touch while the more serious early players go at it.


Race Summary
Charity Stripe needs a decent setup today, but her ceiling is high enough to land this if she gets a fair run of things. Something like 5/1 would seem fair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Pocono Downs - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#1 BARDMIRY
Tracked odds on fave, got by late to finish second.


#5 SOUTH WIND XENA
Was traveling comfortably on clear lead but came up short.


#2 CANDY PAINT
First start locally for 20-percent barn, Buter's choice on a double call.


Race Summary
Bardmiry tracked 1-to-5 favorite South Wind Xena in the pocket and got by late after the winner ranged up 3-wide for the stretch drive. She projects a similar trip and betting value should remain. Play 1-2, 1-5 and 1-8 exactas.


Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#2 HADIKNOWNBETTER
Post makes all the difference, goes well in here.


#8 R PRECIOUS PEARL
Plagued by bad posts, ran best race with Macdonald in bike.


#4 GQ MAGIC
Three-race in-the-momey streak ended from post 8.


Race Summary
Hadiknownbetter showed good speed off the gate from post 10, saved ground in fifth and trotted evenly in the stretch. Expect a good effort from the 3yo filly with a favorable post switch. Play a 2-ALL exacta.


- Race #0


Picks
Notes


#8 STATE OF PLAY
Seeks repeat off Moreau claim against similar rivals.


#10 JAYDEN PLACE
Good form, drops to proper level, starting spot the drawback.


#6 PORTRSTOWNCHRIS IR
'Loaded' while looking for stretch room, rallied widest.


Race Summary
State Of Play found a seat in fifth, led the outer flow as the pace slowed on the backside and inched clear to win. Give him the repeat nod off the Moreau claim in a wide open race. Play a 6-8-10 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Indiana Grand - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#4 Ego
Was a winner the last time he was on dirt and has won on turf since then; is back to the main track and seeks his third win in sixth start off the claim by Holthus; one to hold off.


#1 Candy Store
Was an easy winner at Prairie Meadows last out as he embraced the chance to set slow fractions; he's taken two of his last three and is running well for Reavis.


#3 Gambler's Fallacy
Just missed last time in his first over the strip and has good performances at several different tracks; just likes to run and could make them notice late.


Race Summary
Ego is in good dirt form and has the class to prevail over a solid group of horses; can make a solid late run.


Indiana Grand - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#6 Game Boy Benny
Ran well in Florida early in the year and has shown signs off getting back to good form; comes in off a third here and can be a pace factor.


#3 Naughty Alfred
Won three straight and them settled for second last time; has taken 7 of 10 locally.


#1 Royal Commission
Ran on for second last out in his first good effort since April; can get a good trip on or near the end and can benefit from the inside post.


Race Summary
Game Boy Benny is headed back to top form and his Florida races would make him very tough here.


Indiana Grand - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Rare Form
Took a race clunker last time out as he opened up four lengths early and had nothing left late; can be a big player at this level.


#4 Dilettante
Goes for his third straight win and has a sparkling 7 of 18 record here; can mix it up with these.


#6 Thatswhatithought
Ran of to an easy score vs. state-breds last time and usually runs well on the front end locally.


Race Summary
Rare Form turns back in distance, which should help his cause; can take to them when called upon and should show significant improvement here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: Chicago Cubs w/Davies +145 over Colorado

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Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: PITTSBURGH/MILWAUKEE OVER the total of 9 runs

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Totals4U Tuesday's Free Selection: Seattle Mariners/Tampa Bay Rays over 8 1/2

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#1 Sports Tuesday's Free Play: Chicago White Sox - 200

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Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: Milwaukee w/Houser -210 over Pittsburgh

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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Tuesday : Take ATLANTA/ST LOUIS UNDER the total of 8½ runs

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Hawkeye Sports Tuesday's Free Pick: San Francisco Giants - 155

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Huddle Up Sports
Tuesday Free Play
Toronto Ryu -195

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Arthur Ralph FreePlay TUES: Cinci Reds w/ Mahle-135

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Teyas Sports FREE PICK 8/3 MLB CLEVELAND +185

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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Tuesday: CLEVELAND/TORONTO UNDER the total of 8½ runs

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High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Tuesday: Milwaukee Brewers - 225

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John Anthony Sports Your John Anthony Free Selection for Tuesday:
Sea/TB OVER 8½ runs

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Tony Sacco Tony Sacco's Free Play for Tuesday:
SF/Az OVER 9½ runs

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Hollywood Anthony Your Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take Chicago Wsox w/Cease -185

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Jay McNeil

For Tuesday, no need to overthink things, play Milwaukee on the Run Line over Pittsburgh.

Here's the deal, in their last 4 meetings dating back to last week the Brewers have dumped the Pirates in ALL 4 games played and they have done so by outscoring them, 34-5!

Milwaukee has won 11 of the 14 games played in this year's season series against Pittsburgh and each of their last 9 series wins have come by 2 runs or better.

As I said, there in no need to overthink this one at all. The Brewers are head-and-shoulders the better of the pair of teams on the field and they will not have a slip up against this Pirates team that is just 17-36 for the season on the road.

4* MILWAUKEE -1 1/2 RUNS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Tuesday's comp play is the Orioles and the Yankees to hold Under the total.

This was supposed to be a scheduled start for Gerrit Cole, but the Yankee pitchers tested positive for COVID-19, so Aaron Boone will figure out a new plan of attack.

No matter who is pitching for the Yanks, the issue is their bats which have simply not responded with the offense they need to provide consistent pop.

The Yankees were held to only one run last night, as they have now held Under the total in each of their last 4 games and in 10 of their last 11 overall!

The Orioles are right there with the Yanks, as they have now held Under in each of their last 5 games and in 10 of their last 13 overall!

Like I said, it does not really matter who is pitching, when you cannot score, you cannot score.

O's-Yanks Under for Tuesday.

4* BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Trust me when I tell you my side will win by 3 runs or more.

If you take a gander at Detroit's last 4 games you will see that all 4 played Under the total.

I want you to throw those 4 straight Unders out the window tonight as the Motown Cats welcome the Boston Red Sox to town.

Boston has lost their last 5 games, so you know they will be chomping at the bit to get things going in a hurry. 3 of the Sox last 4 games have landed Over the total and when Boston and Detroit play, things usually get "offensive".

All 3 earlier meetings this year at Fenway Park did play Over the total and the last 8 times the teams have played the Over is 7-1.

Boston starter Garrett Richards owns a season ERA a shade over 5 and the Over is 11-7-1 when he makes the start for the year.

Detroit pitcher Wily Peralta has allowed 11 runs on 11 hits over his last 9 innings of work.

Do you see why I am looking for the runs to add up?

5* BOSTON-DETROIT OVER

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Cappers Access

Tue (MLB) Blue Jays
Tue (MLB) Cubs
Tue (MLB) Diamondbacks

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Paul Leiner

100* Rockies -140
100* Twins +115
100* Over 8.5 Blue Jays/Indians

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Mikey Sports (http://www.mikeysports.com/)
MLB
NEW YORK YANKEES ‑1.5 ‑155
0
0
0


Pure Lock (http://www.purelock.net/)
MLB
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS ‑160
0
0
0


R and R Totals (http://www.randrtotals.com/)
MLB
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS/ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS u9.5
0
0
0


Rocketman Sports (http://www.rocketmansports.com/)
MLB
NEW YORK YANKEES ‑1.5 ‑125
0
0
0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Asmussen's Pursuit of History: Tuesday Starters' Evaluation August 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Trainer Steve Asmussen has five entrants nationwide Tuesday, needing just 3 victories to tie Dale Baird’s all-time career record for North American victories. Asmussen has 9,442 wins, so Baird’s 9,445 is within his range today. The barn went 0-3 on Monday between Colonial Downs, Louisiana Downs and Indiana Grand single starters.

//

Louisiana Downs // Race 2 // 4:11 pm ET // optional claiming // 6 furlongs

#5 Pickens (9-5 ML)

Comments: Favorite makes hefty drop in class and will try to take these wire to wire in what figures to be at least a contended pace. 1/ST BET win projection 30% (top race pick).

//

Louisiana Downs // Race 3 // 4:37 pm ET // claiming // 7-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#3 Bella Belle (7-2 ML)

Comments: Winless in 6 tries since coming to the barn from Greg Foley, including 3 times as a favorite. Class and local course all part of the recent slide. Must wake up. 1/ST BET win projection 24% (top race pick).

//

Indiana Grand // Race 6 // 5:00 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile (turf)

#3 Treaty of Paris (7-2 ML)

Comments: Filly won a maiden special weight on dirt at Indiana Grand this season and drops in for a claiming tag for the first time in her last 6 starts. She’s yet to try turf, but has run well on synthetic. The morning line favorite is on a class rise, so this class drop could be significant enough. 1/ST BET win projection 9%.

//

Louisiana Downs // Race 5 // 5:29 pm ET // claiming // 7-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#10 Dreamonmebaby (4-1 ML)

Comments: Also-eligible will need some help to draw in, then likely will be stuck out in a disadvantageous, wide post. The distance should suit, but the turf surface has not been his forte (only 1 grass start from 16 bids, and off the board at that). The forecast for rain could help. 1/ST BET win projection for turf 6%.

//

Louisiana Downs // Race 6 // 5:55 pm ET // allowance // 6-1/2 furlongs

#4 Midnight Karma (9-2 ML)

Comments: Wire-to-wire last out over the track and distance, he’ll take a sizable class leap now while having shown improvement in his 3 starts since moving to the Asmussen barn. X 1/ST BET win projection 17% (second race pick).

Looking Ahead:

Asmussen has 2 Saratoga starters set for Wednesday and no entrants on Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs



Presque Isle Downs - Race 5

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7) Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7-8)



Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 6:25P


(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2020 - 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 3, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DERBY CHAMPAGNE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BUZZ OFF: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ORCHESTRAL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DAHOG: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. LOTTA COOL TIMES: Horse ra nks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



6

DERBY CHAMPAGNE

3/1


5/1




10

BUZZ OFF

4/1


6/1




7

ORCHESTRAL

7/2


7/1




5

DAHOG

5/1


9/1




4

LOTTA COOL TIMES

20/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

LOTTA COOL TIMES

4


20/1

Front-runner

83


81


85.3


0.9


0.0




7

ORCHESTRAL

7


7/2

Front-runner

81


75


73.4


70.4


61.9




3

AWESOME HALO

3


8/1

Front-runner

80


67


66.8


67.8


55.3




6

DERBY CHAMPAGNE

6


3/1

Stalker

85


79


56.9


77.7


74.7




10

BUZZ OFF

10


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

84


76


61.8


76.2


70.2




5

DAHOG

5


5/1

Trailer

81


74


38.0


66.6


61.1




8

C THE KING

8


10/1

Alternator/Trailer

75


66


53.8


66.6


49.1




11

HOT TRAFFIC

11


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

79


71


70.6


56.6


40.6




9

DEEP THINKER (IRE)

9


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

82


86


63.0


63.0


45.5




1

BOOT LEGGER

1


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

72


71


57.2


64.6


49.6




2

DAWOOD

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

81


78


47.8


63.4


54.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 66

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 TIMELESS GLORY 8/5




# 1 PEEKACHICA 10/1




# 3 EMILY LANE 8/1




I think TIMELESS GLORY is a very good choice. Granitz has this filly racing well and is a competitive selection based on the formidable speed figures put up in route races recently. Will most likely compete admirably in the early speed clash which bodes well with this group of horses in this race. Had one of the best speed figures of this group in her last outing. PEEKACHICA - Has some interesting angles which make this one a play. Should best this field here, showing solid figs of late. EMILY LANE - Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this horse a solid contender. Her 59 average has this filly with among the top speed figures in this competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $16600 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $18,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $18,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 9 J W RUCKUS 5/1




# 8 BOTSWANA 6/1




# 2 BLESS THE KITTEN 5/2




J W RUCKUS looks to be a competitive contender. I like the rider on this gelding - decent chance to win the competition. Has very good early speed and will almost certainly fare solidly against this group of horses. Posted a solid Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. BOTSWANA - Has some encouraging angles which make this horse a wager. Look for a formidable attempt with the class drop. BLESS THE KITTEN - Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed figure - 84 - of his last affair. Should keep the strong string of finishes intact this time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:43pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 LUNAR STAR (ML=3/1)
#6 LADYOFDRAGONSTONE (ML=4/1)


LUNAR STAR - Searching through the information for this race, I noted right away this horse's last effort was more than meets the eye. Showed good speed, fell back, and then ran evenly. Was in a $4,000 Claiming race at Penn National last out. That race had a class figure of 66 and she is moving down in this event. A certain solid contender. You have to really like that most recent race speed rating, 61, which is the top latest race speed fig of this field. LADYOFDRAGONSTONE - Ran in the last race against much better horses at Penn National. The move to a lower level should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ROBIN'S DESTINY (ML=5/2), #5 COLOR FORCE (ML=7/2), #4 WICKED T (ML=5/1),

ROBIN'S DESTINY - This thoroughbred hasn't shown much life in the last pair of affairs. COLOR FORCE - Not probable that the speed figure she registered on July 16th will be good enough in this race. WICKED T - No pace in this field to help set-up her closing kick.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - LUNAR STAR - Advancing each step of the way, this thoroughbred has recorded significant increases in her speed figures over her last two races.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #3 LUNAR STAR on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy King Wins (http://www.tkwins.com/)
MLB
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ‑160
1
0
+100


Tys Terrific Tips (http://www.tysterrifictips.com)
MLB
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS/SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS u9.5
0
1
-110


Insider Sports Report (http://www.insidersportsreport.com/)

No pick yet
0
1
-110


The Money Team Wins Sports (https://twitter.com/TMTWMoney)

No pick yet
0
1
-120


Mikey Sports (http://www.mikeysports.com/)
MLB
NEW YORK YANKEES ‑1.5 ‑155
0
0
0


Pure Lock (http://www.purelock.net/)
MLB
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS ‑160
0
0
0


R and R Totals (http://www.randrtotals.com/)
MLB
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS/ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS u9.5
0
0
0


Rocketman Sports (http://www.rocketmansports.com/)
MLB
NEW YORK YANKEES ‑1.5 ‑125
0
0
0


Winning Cappers (https://winningcappers.net/)
MLB
CHICAGO WHITE SOX ‑1.5 ‑115
0
0
0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price Aug 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 11m
MLB | SEA vs TAM
Play on: OVER 8 -115

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Mariners/Rays OVER 8
The Key: This is a pretty low total because both the Rays and Mariners have underrated lineups. The Rays have scored 5 or more runs in 15 of their last 24 games overall. The Mariners have scored 3 or more runs in 10 straight games and 15 of their last 16 games overall. Both starting pitchers come in struggling in this one. Yusei Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Mariners. Luis Patino is 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA in his last 3 outings for the Rays, and 1-2 with a 4.73 ERA in 6 starts this year overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games. The OVER is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games. The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 matchups in Tampa Bay. Take the OVER.

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Sal Michaels Aug 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 11m
MLB | Mariners vs Rays
Play on: Mariners +145 at Caesars

Free Play on Mariners +145

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Jack Jones Aug 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 11m
MLB | Red Sox vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers +131 at SC Consensus

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Detroit Tigers +131
The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 42-33 in their last 75 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game. They have been one of the best money makers in baseball this season. And they are being overlooked as home dogs to the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of this series Tuesday.
The Red Sox come in struggling with four straight losses. They are 1-5 in their last six games overall and scoring just 2.7 runs per game during this stretch. It won't get any easier against Detroit's Wily Peralta, who is 3-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in eight starts this season.
Peralta is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two home starts this season while pitching 9 2/3 shutout innings. He'll be opposed by Garrett Richards, who is one of the weak links in Boston's rotation. Richards is 6-6 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.658 WHIP in 20 starts this season.
Detroit is 11-2 in its last 13 home games. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win. Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Aug 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 11m
MLB | MIN vs CIN
Play on: OVER 9 +105

Free Total Annihilator On Twins vs Reds over 9 +105

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Black Widow Aug 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 11m
MLB | Twins vs Reds
Play on: Twins +126 at William Hill

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Twins +126

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Jeff Alexander Aug 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 11m
MLB | Twins vs Reds
Play on: Reds -124 at BetVegas

1* MLB - Twins/Reds FREE PICK on Reds -124
Tuesday's Free MLB Pick is on the Cincinnati Reds as a -124 home favorite against the Minnesota Twins. Reds are playing some of their best baseball right now. Cincinnati has won 5 of their last 6. Minnesota on the other hand has lost 6 of their last 8. Twins starter Kenta Maeda has 5.67 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 11 road starts this season. Reds starter Tyler Mahle has given up just 2 runs in his last 11 innings of work. Bet the Reds -124!

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Bobby Conn Aug 03 '21, 7:10 PM in 11m
MLB | Twins vs Reds
Play on: Reds -122 at BetVegas

1* Free Play on Reds -122

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Dustin Hawkins Aug 03 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Angels vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +115 at SC Consensus

1 Dimer on Rangers +115

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Mike Williams Aug 03 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Angels vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +111 at BetVegas

1* on Rangers +111

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John Martin Aug 03 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Angels vs Rangers
Play on: Angels -119 at linepros

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Angels -119
This looks like a good bounce-back spot for the Los Angeles Angels tonight after losing two in a row and four of their last five. Jose Suarez is 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in two road starts this season for the Angels. Los Angeles should get its bats going against Jordan Lyles, who is 5-7 with a 5.15 ERA in 20 starts this season for Texas. Lyles is 3-3 with a 6.67 ERA in seven previous starts against the Angels. He gave up 7 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against the Los Angeles this season. Give me the Angels.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Aug 03 '21, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Angels vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers +115 at SC Consensus

1* Free Pick on Rangers +115

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Hunter Price Aug 03 '21, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Royals vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -200 at SC Consensus

1* Free Pick on White Sox -200

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ASA Aug 03 '21, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Royals vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -1½ -121 at pinnacle

ASA FREE PLAY ON Chicago White Sox -1.5 Runs -120 over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET We’ve hit the fade button on bad road teams like Colorado/Arizona/Texas/KC/Pittsburgh with a number of our picks this season and with solid success overall. We’ll pull the trigger again on Tuesday night and side with the Chicago White Sox on the run line. Kansas City has lost 3 straight road games and this has dropped the Royals to 17-34 in road games on the season. 43 of Kansas City's 59 losses this season have come by 2+ runs. 51 of Chicago's 62 wins have come by 2+ runs. The White Sox are 19-10 against lefties this year. Tonight Chicago's lineup will face a southpaw that has struggled on the road this season. Kris Bubic has an 8.19 ERA in his road starts this season. In fact, if a bettor simply played the home team in all of Bubic's starts this season that bettor would have a 9-1 record. The Royals lefty has been strong at home but weak on the road. With plenty of run support, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease should notch a dominant home win here. Cease has a 2.44 ERA at home this season and Chicago has gone 7-3 in his 10 home starts. The White Sox have been up and down of late but they are first in the division and the much better team in this match-up plus at home and off a momentum-boosting win and at a reasonable -120 price range on the run line. Take Chicago White Sox -1.5 on the run line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin Aug 03 '21, 8:15 PM in 1h
MLB | Braves vs Cardinals
Play on: Braves -125 at BetVegas

Braves vs Cardinals Free Pick August 3, 2021
The Atlanta Braves have alternated wins and losses through their last 10 games and they are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss. With the Braves coming off a defeat to Milwaukee on Sunday, I think this looks like a good spot to back the Braves to snap back from a loss again.
Cards' left-hander Jon Lester (3-5, 5.02 ERA) will make his first start since coming over from Washington. He'll face a Braves team that is
4-1 in its last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in St. Louis.
Atlanta left-hander Max Fried (7-7, 4.32 ERA) has posted a 2.84 ERA through his last three starts. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Free pick on Atlanta Braves.

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Teddy Davis Aug 03 '21, 8:40 PM in 1h
MLB | Cubs vs Rockies
Play on: Cubs +128 at William Hill

The Cubs are a good price here to back. yes, the Cubs dumped everyone and they will struggle but the players they currently have won't be trying to tank. Do the Rockies really deserve to be laying such a price as a favorite here? Cubs do hit lefties well averaging over 5 runs a game.

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Brandon Lee Aug 03 '21, 8:40 PM in 1h
MLB | Cubs vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies -132 at BetVegas

FREE PICK - Colorado Rockies -132
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 910
I'll take my chances with the Rockies as a mere -132 home favorite against the Cubs. Chicago has lost 5 of 6 with the only win coming with Kyle Hendricks on the mound. This is a team that is going to really struggle down the stretch when Hendricks isn't throwing. They just don't have the offense or the pitching to be competitive on a consistent basis.
Rockies aren't a great team either, but they are a very strong 33-20 at Coors Field this season. Zach Davies hasn't been horrible this season, but I just don't see him doing enough to keep the Cubs in this game.
Colorado will have the red-hot Kyle Freeland on the mound, who has a 2.37 ERA and 1.053 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Freeland also owns a 2.75 ERA in 3 career starts against the Cubs. Give me the Rockies -132!
**GOM ALERT** Brandon Lee can't wait to exploit the books on the diamond Tuesday.

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Kenny Walker Aug 03 '21, 9:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Giants vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Diamondbacks +154 at BetVegas

Free Pick on Diamondbacks

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Ben Burns Aug 03 '21, 9:40 PM in 2h
MLB | SFO vs ARI
Play on: UNDER 9½ -106

Yesterday's complimentary selection was on these same two teams to finish 'over' the total. That game would finish with 19 runs, an 11-8 final. Today, however, we're working with a pair of veteran starters, both of whom are in much better current form than yesterday's starters were. Cueto blanked the Dodgers for 5 2/3 innings last time out, a 5-0 final score. Eight of his past 10 starts have finished with eight or fewer combined runs. He's got a 2.30 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP his past three starts. Not to be outdone, Bumgarner has a 2.00 ERA and 0.83 his past three. Last time out, he allowed just four hits, through seven complete. The final score was 3-2. These two have had some memorable pitcher's duels against each other in years past. Consider the Under.

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Larry Ness Aug 03 '21, 9:40 PM in 2h
MLB | Giants vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Giants -175 at pinnacle

My free play is on the SF Giants at 9:40 ET.
Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants Tuesday night in the second contest of a four-game series at Chase Field. San Francisco won Monday's series opener 11-8 (10 innings) and owns MLB's best record at 67-39. That gives them a 'modest' 34 1/2-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, who check in with MLB's worst record of 33-74. San Francisco owns MLB's second-best money line mark (plus-$2,326 at $100/game) and its third-best run differential mark (plus-122 runs). In stark contrast, Arizona's moneyline record of minus-$3,368 and run-differential mark of minus-170 runs each ranks dead-last among MLB's 30 teams.
Tuesday's pitching matchup features a pair of past All Stars, who are seemingly well past their primes. Johnny Cueto (7-5, 3.84 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants, while Madison Bumgarner (5-6, 4.87 ERA) gets the start for the D'backs. Cueto began his career with the Reds back in 2008 and had two notable seasons, going 19-9 with a 2.78 ERA in 2012 and 20-9 (2.25 ERA) in 2014, finishing second in the NL's Cy Young voting that season. He was shipped to KC right before the trade deadline in 2015 and helped the Royals win the 2015 World Series. Cueto won Game 2 of the 2015 World Series 7-1 (KC took the series in five games), becoming the first AL pitcher to throw a complete game in the World Series since Minnesota's Jack Morris in 1991. Cueto signed with the Giants prior to the 2016 season and went 18-5 (2.79 ERRA) that first season. However, he fell to 8-8 (4.52 ERA) in 2017 and then went just 6-7 with a 4.49 ERA over a modest 25 starts from 2018-20.
Bumgarner was part of a San Francisco starting rotation that helped the Giants win World Series crowns in 2010, 2012 and 2014. His 2014 postseason was legendary, as he made seven appearances (six starts), with an ERA of 1.03 over 52.2 innings with a KW ratio of 45-6. He was named the 2014 World Series MVP, finishing the series with a 2–0 record and an 0.43 ERA (0ne ER allowed over 21 innings). However, his last good season was back in 2016, when he went 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA. He was just 19-25 with San Francisco from 2017-19 and then signed as a FA with Arizona in 2020. he made nine starts in 202, going 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA (team was 3-6).
Cueto is 7-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 17 starts this season, with the Giants going 9-8 in his starts. Bumgarner is 5-6 with a 4.87 ERA in 15 starts, with the D'backs going 6-9. The highlight of his 2021 season came back on April 25 when Bumgarner pitched seven no-hit innings in the second game of a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves. However, because the game was only seven innings long, Bumgarner was not credited with a no-hitter. Cueto is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two 2021 starts vs the Diamondbacks but I will NOT ignore that he's 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 20 career starts against Arizona (teams are 15-5). The Giants will 'LOVE' beating their former teammate and Cueto is coming off a strong outing last Thursday, when he pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in a 5-0 win against the Dodgers.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover Aug 03 '21, 10:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Astros vs Dodgers
Play on: Astros +163 at linepros

Is there anything that can propel you to step in front of Walker Buehler, who just finished July going 3-0 in five starts with a 1.67 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings?
Yes. Taking the Astros at a huge plus price like this. The Dodgers haven't been sharp going 6-8 in their last 14 games. Houston has a better overall record than LA, the second-best mark in baseball. The Astros aren't exactly pitching a stiff either going with Lance McCullers, who is 8-2 with a 3.23 ERA. McCullers has a 1.64 ERA in 11 regular-season lifetime innings facing the Dodgers. Much was made of the Dodgers picking up Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. The Astros didn't draw nearly that kind of attention. Houston, though, quietly upgraded its bullpen picking up four relievers, including closers Kendall Graveman and Yimi Garcia.