Friday 8/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis August 20, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 10-race card set to start the weekend. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Big N Bad (5-1)-Beat a couple of these with a 55.1 back half in the 2nd start off a claim and now steps-up. Still fits and Wilfong should be able to work another good trip.
2-Baron Chancey (10-1)-Was bet in last and was aggressively driven and now faces a tougher challenge. Should be in striking range turning for home and could offer a nice price.
3-Rockinsweetvictory (5-1)-Came back from HoP and dropped and popped. This 4-year-old has hit the board in 9 of 14 in Stickney with 6 pictures. Faces better than last but fits and has the gate speed to be put in play early.
4-DJ Lance (4-1)-Leonard's choice over #3 is often in the hunt. Numbers 3/4 are Willis entries and this veteran is the better earner. There should be an honest pace and with a smooth steer this could be the 8th win in 26 starts at Haw.

Race 7

3-I'm An Athlete (9/2)-Got on the engine and didn't look back versus this kind in last and paced the fastest mile of the year. Doesn't win very often but could stay good for another and Seekman is back between the pipes.
4-Readforladys (7-1)-Comes out of the same race as #3 and threw a dud as an odds-on chalk. Will look for better as in the previous win in 152.4 which was a new lifetime mark for this 3-year-old. Willing to take a swing for a price.
8-Straite Rate (7/2)-Came off cover and rolled by last week in a season's best 1.54. Leonard could work the same type of trip and the fractions should be lively.

Race 8

1-Sirodsdalicrickett (3-1)-Drops to a spot to shine, the same level as the only win this year on 6-23. Was an odds-on chalk that day and should be bet down off the morning line.
5-Pine Master (4-1)-Made an early move to get the point but faded down the lane last week. That was only the 2nd start since 6-20. Could have more to offer here and should be able to get the top without using much gas.
8-Townline Big Rigs (2-1)-Team Leonard entry was doing well versus better earlier in the summer but hasn't done much since breaking stride on 7-9. This is a significant drop and should be a player even from this post if bring its "A" game but won't offer much value.

Race 9

1-Machlicious (5/2)-Makes the 2nd start for the Rittof barn and comes off a 3rd place finish pacing the back half in .56. Won't be 20-1 tonight but should handle this group coming right back in 2nd local start. Husted could get the jump on others this time by making a move earlier in the mile.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,2,3,4/3,4,8/1,5,8/1
Total Bet=$18

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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Friday, August 20, 2021 August 20, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Secret Club; 2-Dubby Dubbie; 3-First Premio

Forecast: The Friday opener is a competitive $40,000 turf claimer for older horses that offers several possibilities. We’ll go three deep with preference on top to First Premio, a first-off-the-claim play for C. Dollase. A veteran gelding with a touch of back class, he was taken for this same price last month out of a solid effort in which he closed with purpose but too late when third, beaten just over a length. A similar effort today puts him right there again. Dubby Dubbie is waiver protected in his first start in more than a year for the J. Sadler stable, whose record with layoff runners is quite solid. With F. Prat taking the call in a field without much speed, the veteran gelding projects to be on the lead, and he can take this field a long way if not pressured early. The work tab should have him fit enough and he’s won twice following vacations in the past. Secret Club is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, has numbers that fit, and should at least hit the board with clear sailing. He lacked a clear path in a state bred stakes last month but with better luck today he’ll have a reasonable look. “Win rider” J. J. Hernandez returns, another positive factor.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Zero Tolerance; 6-M Is for Magic

Forecast: Zero Tolerance was best when beaten in her debut as she overcame a poor start to rally furiously late but ran out of room when missing by a nose in a five furlong turf sprint earlier this month. She gets an extra furlong to work with today but drew the rail and must prove she can run as well on the main track. A nice gate work (4f, :47.4hg) last week should have her on edge. M Is for Magic always has trained well on dirt and today, in her ninth career start, she finally gets a chance to run on it. A better-than-looked fourth (beaten less than two lengths) in the same race Zero Tolerance exits in her first outing since December should serve as a springboard to a significant forward move. From her cozy outside post the P. Eurton-trained daughter of Magician is guaranteed a soft, stalking trip in a field without much speed. We’ll give Zero Tolerance a slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Indian Peak; 5-North County Guy

Forecast: North County Guy lacked room at a critical stage midway around the far turn and did quite well thereafter to finish third in a state-bred stakes over this course and distance last month. In this softer spot with just four other entrants, the veteran gelding should be able to secure a good trip and regain his winning form. He receives a positive jockey switch to U. Rispoli, and from his outside draw and drop over and secure a comfortable early position. Indian Peak, second in the same race North County Guy exits while earning a career top speed figure, retains F. Prat and projects to be within range while saving ground throughout. He’s never been quite as good as our top pick but should make a strong run for it.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Righteously

Forecast: Righteously, a thoroughly genuine and consistent filly, has won four of her last five starts, most recently capturing a mixed breed sprint at Los Alamitos in easy fashion. Not the soundest of runners- she was a voided claim three runs back up north but nevertheless always seems to show up on game day and most likely will settle in the second flight and then kick on when ready. This $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds represents a slight raise in class, but the daughter of Square Eddie should be up to the task,. So we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Gates of Heaven; 3-Vantage Point; 6-Man Friday

Forecast: Man Friday moves into the high percentage M. Maker barn following a $40,000 claim last month in which the son of American Pharoah was farther back than he prefers but finished strongly to gain second money while earning a career top speed figure. This one-level raise in class to the $50,000 level should be well within his capabilities, so with just a slight forward move he can recapture his winning ways. Gates of Heaven remains well above his claim price in a sign of confidence and will be stretching out for the first time from a comfortable inside draw. The son of Kantharos projects to enjoy a stalking, ground-saving trip, and after finishing full of run but too late in a recent five furlong dash the P. Miller-trained sophomore definitely is moving in the right direction. Vantage Point, a first-time gelding following a $40,000 claim by T. McCanna (good stats with this angle), finished third in the same race Man Friday exits and is lightly raced with improvement possible. Toss him in.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Scottish Star; 4-Edgeway

Forecast: Edgeway lost all chance at the start when winding up far back behind Gamine in the Great Lady M. S. at Los Alamitos last month but has trained very well since and seems certain to bounce back with her best stuff today from her comfortable outside draw at this six and one-half furlong trip. She’s fast on numbers and projects to enjoy a soft pace-prompting trip in this five-runner edition of the Rancho Bernardo H.G3. Scotish Star, a Grade-1 winner in Argentina last year, missed by a neck in her U.S. debut despite having every chance with a perfect trip but getting worn down late by Stellar Sound, who she faces again today. The R. Mandella-trained ‘Star has a right to improve off that race but must overcome the rail. Due to the more favorable draw, we’ll give Edgeway the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-Torosay; 8-Buena Vista

Forecast: Buena Vista appeared in need of the outing when third at this level last month in his first start in almost a year. The Irish-bred gelding seems certain to be fitter and sharper today for a barn that hits at a strong 21% with the second-off-a-layoff angle. A winner over this course and distance last year, the P. D’Amato-trained import should be hard to beat. Torosay was sharp in victory when beating a first-level allowance field here just 12 days ago and is wheeled back quickly while moving up a notch in an attempt by his connections to strike while the iron is hot. It was his first start in almost a year and the Goldencents gelding equaled his career top Beyer speed figure, so you have to wonder if he can come right back and do it again on short rest. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Buena Vista on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Don’t Ju Forget; 7-Shemakecents; 10-Big Switch

Forecast: This is a stronger than par maiden sprint for state-bred juvenile fillies. We’ll triple the race in rolling exotic play while preferring the talented first-timer Big Switch on top. The daughter of Mr. Big has trained like she’s fit and ready for J. Sadler (strong stats with debut runners) and was especially impressive in a five furlong gate drill (:59 2/5, fifth fastest of 82) just six days ago. Drawn comfortably outside, she should inherit an ideal stalking trip and then have every chance to prove her worth. Don’t Ju Forget has the benefit of two prior outings and seems likely to step forward again with today’s extra furlong to work with. The P. Miller-trained filly closed with interest when a solid third in a good race for the level here last month, and with F. Prat staying aboard she’s likely to get the patient ride she apparently prefers. Shemakescents has displayed pretty good speed in her a.m. drills for P. D’Amato and seems likely to give a good account of herself. The daughter of Goldencents is worth including on your ticket as a backup or a saver.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Friday, August 20, 2021 August 20, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Fingal; 5-Fifty Sheas Ofgrey; 7-Chao

Forecast: We will pass this race if it is switched to the main track. Fingal moves up a level after a runaway sloppy track score that probably means nothing if the race remains on grass, but maybe everything if it’s contested over a wet track. The Noble Mission colt has a good stalking style that guarantees a trouble-free trip. Chao looked good winning at Gulfstream Park in late May but hasn’t been out since, though the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained colt shows a recent healthy work tab to be fit and ready and numbers that make him a major player. The presence of I. Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle is another indication that he’s live and well-meant. Fifty Sheas Ofgrey was overmatched and ran poorly in the Tale of the Cat S. at Monmouth Park last time out, but he earned good number when winning a maiden special weight event in his previous outing while on the front end, and similar front-running tactics likely will be employed again. A recent bullet half mile workout (:47 2/5, fastest of 78) since raced catches the eye.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B+
Single: 4-Empire Lily

Forecast: Empire Lily is a first-timer from a stable that excels with debut runners (27% with a massive flat-bet profit) and has trained like a very nice prospect in a race for New York-bred juvenile fillies. The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile gives every indication of being a win-early type while displaying smooth, easy action in her morning trials and a mindset that stamps her as a precocious sort with a touch of quality. The J. Abreu-trained filly gets the stable’s “go-to” rider J. Ortiz, so we’ll make her a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Scocciatore; 6-Scuttlebuzz

Forecast: We will pass this race if it is taken off the turf. Scuttlebuzz has excellent recent form, winning three of his last five with figures that fit at this state-bred two-other-than allowance level. In his first try around two turns last time out, the R. Rodriguez-trained gelding was part of the pace before weakening slightly to wind up third but he’s back sprinting today and should be capable of regaining his winning form. The same could be said for Scocciatore, unplaced in the same race our top pick exits but shortening up to his preferred trip and projected to be within striking range of the leader throughout. A repeat of his clever score at Belmont Park two runs back puts him right there. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Scuttlebuzz.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Aldan; 5-Hoopla; 6-Clemenza

Forecast: A little will go a long way in this extended sprint for older maiden claimers. Hoopla flashed speed before packing it in vs. straight maidens over a distance of ground in his debut last month at Belmont Park.. The class drop, the shortening in trip, a good recent work tab, and the switch to Johnny V. are factors that should lead to a vastly improved performance today, so we’ll put him on top. Abdan is a seven-race maiden and therefore not one to trust, but he does have dangerous early speed, shows the route-to-sprint angle, and is dropping below his claim price in his second start for R. Diodoro. The son of Liam’s Map earned a speed figure two runs back at Churchill in a similar event that puts him right there. Monmouth Park shipper Clemenza makes his first start since being gelded and he’s also dropping into a seller for the first time, so the K. Breen-trained son of Malibu Moon has every right to step forward. Toss him in on a ticket or two.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B+
Single: 8-Achilles Heel

Forecast: We will pass the race if it is transferred to the main track. Achilles Heel is improving with racing, and in a field in which the newcomers don’t look like much let’s go with the experienced colt coming off a narrow defeat vs. similar over the local lawn last month. The son of Fed Biz rallied against slow fractions to finish a strong second by a neck in a good try, after which he was transferred from R. Atras to B. Cox (30% this season). We’re expecting his upward mobility to continue, so let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: X
Single: 4-Capital Structure

Forecast: We will pass this race if it is transferred to the main track. Capital Structure has been sparingly raced throughout her career – just five starts with only one this year (in April) - but she’s extremely fast on speed figures and is certain to eventually gain some black type if she can stay healthy. This second-level allowance event is hers for the taking if she returns as well as she left, though we haven’t seen her on video because she’s done all of her recent training at Belmont Park. We know she can fire fresh (she won her debut) and her better-than-looked fifth place finish in the American Oaks-G1 at Santa Anita last December provided some hint of her potential. She’s an obvious short priced, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Road to Success; 4-Scotto; 6-Gimme Some Mo

Forecast: Road to Success, another one of those high-percentage first-off-the-claim plays for R. Atras (34% with a strong ROI), is properly spotted after beating maiden $30,000 claimers last month at Belmont Park with a career top speed figure. He’ll have to step up again in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer, but we’re anticipating this lightly-raced son of Quality Road can do just that. He’s drawn comfortably inside and has the tactical speed that will ensure an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip. Scotto stretches out for the first time and acts like he’ll enjoy the extra ground after finishing with interest but much too late when a distant third in a hot race for the level in the mud last month. The son of Zivo switches to L. Saez and represents the most dangerous of the deep-closing types. Gimme Some Mo hasn’t had any real success on dirt – his lone win came on grass – but he’s dropping significantly in class, retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and may find himself as the controlling speed. Given that type of trip, the T. Pletcher-trained colt could prove elusive.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Wicked Indeed; 3-F F Rocket; 10-Royal Realm.

Forecast: Several of these are making their first starts since being claimed and a few others have been haltered within their last couple of outings, so on paper this is a treacherous starter’s allowance affair over seven furlongs for older horses. A case can be made for virtually every one of the 10 entrants. Wicked Indeed, a $35,000 Rudy claim six weeks ago, returns protected in a sign of confidence after winning two of his last three starts, most recently over a Belmont Park sloppy surface. He has enough early speed to gain a decent early position from his rail post and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance. J. Rosario, who doesn’t often ride for this barn, picks up the mount, as J. Lezcano, who was aboard Wicked Indeed in his most recent victory, opts for F F Rocket, making his first start since joining the high-percentage R. Atras barn after being haltered for $30,000 out of a winning race in early June. The son of Curlin has been curiously campaigned this year, sprinting and routing on fast ground, a muddy surface and turf without any apparent consistent master plan. Maybe he wants to be late-running sprinter; guess we’ll find out today. Royal Realm lands the cozy outside post in his first-off-the-$40,000-claim for D. Donk. The son of Empire Maker is re-equipped with blinkers while turning back from a router and has back numbers that make him dangerous. Smaller ticket plays should include the three listed above in rolling exotic play but if you can afford to go deeper, do so.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: X
Single: 3-Kaufymaker

Forecast: Today’s feature is a grass sprint for juveniles. Let’s hope it remains on that surface. Trainer W. Ward has a couple in here, including Tremont S. winner Overbore, but clearly the one to beat is Kaufymaker, a runaway debut winner at Keeneland in April before being sent to Royal Ascot for the prestigious Coventry S.-G2. She actually ran fairly well there when winding up eighth of 17, beaten just four lengths. The daughter of Jimmy Creed may have found the six furlong straightaway course a tad too testing, but at this five and one-half furlong trip against lesser foes she’s strictly the one to beat. A recent half mile turf breeze around dogs (:48b, second fastest of 62) indicates she’s spot on.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade:
Use: 3-Gabby Squared; 10-Never Content

Forecast: We will pass this race if it is taken off the grass. Gaby Squared could do no better than a non-threatening third at 6/5 in a similar maiden claiming turf router at Belmont Park in June but on numbers she’s clearly good enough to make amends in this spot, so with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. we’ll give the C. Brown-trained daughter of Jack Milton another chance. Her recent work tab is healthy, so we’re expecting a career top effort. Never Content, away since late May, returns to face her softest foes to date and seems likely to provide our top pick with some serious competition. The M. Maker-trained filly is a strong fit on speed figures and has enough tactical speed to secure a good pace-stalking position.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Arlington - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#3 Adios Asher
Forward player ran pretty well as the 6/5 chalk last out, and the bottom side of his pedigree is full of super serious horses on synthetic surfaces. He isn't going to be any kind of price, but he should be able to handle these as a single in the early multis.


#7 Dare Goes Da Devil
He'll debut with a forward enough worktab, and the barn has made the most of their starters at the meet. Maybe this guy can fire out of the box.


#5 American Chaos
He flashed some pace in the same common race as the top choice, and they were beaten by a finishing longshot that day. He's another who presumably has some upside on the main track.


Race Summary
Adios Asher was overbet on the turf in the career debut, but there is some upside on the surface switch with the dam producing a long line of local runners. I'll try to get #7 Dare Goes Da Devil in the mix to build the exotics.


Arlington - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#3 Gastown
There is at least some chance of a fair pace developing with a couple of of forward players and a stretchout type signed on, and this filly should be rolling late.


#1 Katie M'Lady
She has been so sharp in all three turf routes, but she has been the beneficiary of some modest, uncontested paces in those wins. I think the talent is there for her to tolerate more pressure, but the price may get too short to want to find out today.


#2 Serene
She romped off the layoff when rained over to the main, and she should be able to land a really nice spying trip behind the pace players. Turf is still a question, but she might just be better with Lasix.


Race Summary
Gastown might get a decent setup from off the pace today, and the rail runner may command enough cash to leave this one at a playable price.


Arlington - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Stormin El Prado
Dropper has been in with much better in recent starts, and he can land the right kind of spying trip with these at a square price. Worth one chance at this level.


#7 Mister Kelly
He should get a decent go of things here, but I worry that he's going to be overbet off a good figure on the Gulfstream main last out. The turf tries are hit or miss but still competitive. He's got a shot, but he's not for me today.


#8 Skip the Smalltalk
Both lifetime turf sprints have been pretty good, and he turned in a nice score from right up on the splits last out for the new barn. He draws well for another similar prompting trip.


Race Summary
Stormin El Prado should still offer a nice number on the board despite dropping in class, and he draws perfectly while right outside a trio of forward players.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 BEVANS CULLEN N
Winless a long time, gets right set-up to try and reverse the trend.


#3 MAJOR OFFENSE
Finished behind odds-on favorites when third in 3 of last 4 starts.


#6 NEEDLESS TO SAY
Has eight wins this year; rest of field combined for 10.


Race Summary
Something has to give in what figures a lively battle for front-end position. Bevans Cullen N, whose 0-14 record this year doesn't look as bad in this field, could launch a contending rally at a big price. Play a 1-3-5-6 exacta box.


Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 SOMEWHERE NORTH
Consistent, loves to win, must time move right.


#1 LADY ROCKNROLLA A
Piling up the checks, moves outside in, deserving fave.


#5 KICKIN COWGIRL
Passed the fave, out-kicked for win in :27.4 final quarter two starts ago at this level.


Race Summary
Somewhere North rallied for third from post 8 last week after a solid try at this level two back, when she waited on cover near the half-mile marker, was fanned 4-wide in the stretch and finished willingly. Play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.


Yonkers - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#5 HOBBS
Found best stride late, projects ideal trip, seeks first win of year.


#1 P L KETCHUP
Held strong through :27.1 third quarter before the fave caught him late.


#3 SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN
Millionaire been lacking stretch kick, gets class relief.


Race Summary
Hobbs, an unhurried fourth through the opening half, was blocked by the outer flow on the final turn and surged late between rivals to finish third. He benefitted when the odds-on pace settter broke stride, but he finished well nonetheless and gets plenty of pace to rally into tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Del Mar - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#3 Artie's Rumor
Closed with a flourish and won going away in the Singletary Stakes at Lone Star Park in his first off the claim by Ron Moquett; has a good closing move most of the time and is a serious threat to win his third straight.


#1 Indian Peak
Made a strong move to the lead in the California Dreamin Stakes last out and was caught late for second; has several races on his form that are worthy of attention. Capable of a big effort.


#2 Bob and Jackie
Faltered to fifth in the Wickerr Stakes, which marked his first local effort of the season; could fire a big one late.


Race Summary
Artie's Rumor has the late energy to pose a threat and his win in the Singletary was legit; one to hold off here.


Del Mar - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Scotish Star
Ran a solid second here in her first U.S. start after beginning in Argentina; looks like Mandella has another swift South American runner.


#4 Edgeway
Didn't get a good start and finished fourth behind talented Gamine in the G2 Great Lady M. at Los Al last out; was sharp in an allowance win at Santa Anita and Carousel Stakes win at Oaklawn early in the year.


#3 Stellar Sound
Tracked a solid pace and closed for a neck win over Scotish Star last out; graded stakes-placed and has won over the strip.


Race Summary
Scotish Star is highly eligible to improve off a good second in her initial U.S. appearance after coming in from Argentina, where she romped in two races. Clearly talented and get an ideal ground-saving trip.


Del Mar - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#8 Distant Vista
Was along lake for third last out and looks like the biggest late threat; can close into a fast pace and is the one to hold off.


#5 Torosay
Was up in time in a good race last time, which was off a year layoff; O'Neill has him in top form and he can be expected to run another big one.


#2 Thanks Mr. Eidson
Was a bang-up second in a similar race here last out and could get to the leaders of this one.


Race Summary
Distant Vista has a good late move on occasion and was a sharp winner two back; couldn't get up last time as he was third, but is in a perfect spot for his style today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ferndale



Ferndale - Race 6

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) $2 Daily Double



Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 5:45P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.





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Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. GREY ABBEY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHIQUITA PIQUITA: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, ho rse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. WAHASHA: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. GREY ABBEY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer.



4

CHIQUITA PIQUITA

2/1


7/2




5

WAHASHA

5/2


4/1




1

GREY ABBEY

3/1


9/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

CHIQUITA PIQUITA

4


2/1

Front-runner

67


74


88.3


57.2


51.7




5

WAHASHA

5


5/2

Front-runner

72


60


78.2


58.4


55.9




3

PHANTOMS BOOK

3


8/1

Front-runner

40


41


0.0


30.8


18.8




1

GREY ABBEY

1


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

63


66


58.6


54.2


49.2




2

SAN JUAN STORM

2


6/1

Alternator/Trailer

50


52


33.0


39.0


28.0




6

ELECTRIC ELIZABETA

6


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

60


57


0.0


47.0


37.0




7

SHENANDOAH STAR

7


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

63


54


0.0


46.0


37.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero



Camarero - Race 7

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta



Claiming $14,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 5:30P


FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 5 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. AFY X. is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * AFY X.: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LINTERNA VERDE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BOLD MASTER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface. OROSELECTO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



6

AFY X.

5/2


4/1




3

LINTERNA VERDE

5/2


5/1




4

BOLD MASTER

9/5


5/1




7

OROSELECTO

3/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

OROSELECTO

7


3/1

Front-runner

60


53


79.0


55.6


48.6




4

BOLD MASTER

4


9/5

Front-runner

69


62


78.8


61.4


56.4




8

EL KID CASAS

8


5/1

Front-runner

47


45


72.0


39.8


28.3




6

AFY X.

6


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

67


65


64.6


63.6


57.1




3

LINTERNA VERDE

3


5/2

Trailer

67


63


21.8


63.2


59.2




2

PRESTIGIOSO

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

29


20


55.2


22.4


8.4




1

RELAMPAGO

1


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

58


38


49.8


36.6


27.6




5

EL PAQUI

5


9/2

Alternator/Non-contender

59


38


45.0


36.6


23.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ely

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Futurity - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $5300 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, ROBBIE ROBINSON QH FUTURITY - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. $50 TO ENTER, ADDED TO THE PURSE. WEIGHTS: 122 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 TEW TALL JONES 8/5




# 4 RAGING BURST 5/2




# 2 KB PHILIN TURBULENT 4/1




My choice in this competition is TEW TALL JONES. Has very good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager for this event. This gelding has a good winning percentage in short races. Will almost certainly compete soundly in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group. RAGING BURST - She has been running soundly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the top in this group. Benn should be able to get this filly to break out early in this competition. KB PHILIN TURBULENT - Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in short contests in this group. With a solid 57 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Burley - Race #5 - Post: 3:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,400 Class Rating: 45

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 TRUST MY BUDDY (ML=8/5)
#3 A TRUST IS LAUNCHD (ML=8/1)


TRUST MY BUDDY - This rider and handler have a positive return on investment when they combine forces. My expertise says this is the lone presser in the race. Trainer, Johnson, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Trainer Johnson moves this animal down the class ladder to face a weaker class today. Look for a solid effort this time out. A TRUST IS LAUNCHD - I like to play this angle, a horse coming back off a strong effort within the last thirty days. Taking a big class drop in class rating points from his August 15th race at Sweetwater Downs. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this one the advantage. This horse gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. Certainly could make the difference in this event. Horse is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big performance today. In my secret list of handicapping angles, this is a good one. Horse's last two speed ratings are higher than today's class rating. An indication we have a strong contender here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SHADOW DRIVE (ML=7/2), #4 SMART LITTLE LULU (ML=8/1),

SHADOW DRIVE - Didn't finish in the money on Aug 1st at Wyoming Downs. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. SMART LITTLE LULU - Doesn't appear to be in a satisfactory situation this time around.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - A TRUST IS LAUNCHD - I love betting on horses that have a big advantage over the rest of the field when it comes to the Power Rating. This one fits the bill.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 A TRUST IS LAUNCHD is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arlington

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 LANE 1. (IF THE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 TIZ SUSAN ANN 7/2




# 3 BLUES MARY 9/2




# 4 IRISH HALO 12/1




TIZ SUSAN ANN has a respectable shot to take this race. Boasts strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. Has very strong front speed and should fare solidly versus this group of horses. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. BLUES MARY - She has recorded strong figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this field. She should be given a shot given the competitive speed figures.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 4:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 BONNIE LEE (ML=2/1)


BONNIE LEE - Like the way this mare's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. A horse coming back this rapidly after a sharp contest is a good signal. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PINO IN A PURSE (ML=7/5), #5 THE GOOD WITCH (ML=7/2), #6 SOMEONE ELSE (ML=6/1),

PINO IN A PURSE - Would have to move up off that fifth place finish last out to make an impact here. THE GOOD WITCH - That was merely not a very good showing in the last event. SOMEONE ELSE - This filly hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two races.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 BONNIE LEE to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

None



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga



08/20/21, SAR, Race 10, 6.13 ET
08/20/21,SAR,10,1 1/16M 1:39:00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000. INNER TURF (UP TO $8,700 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Best
Occ
Win%
ROI


100.0000
3
Gabby Squared
3/1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Brown Chad C.
JSC
83
26.51
1.57/$1


097.6112
10
Never Content (IRE)
7/2
Ortiz J L
Maker Michael J.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


096.8501
2
Little Nutter
10/1
Lezcano J
Klesaris Robert P.


[I]83
26.51
1.57/$1


096.5931
5
Hard Won
8/1
Cancel E
Gyarmati Leah


83
26.51
1.57/$1


096.5318
7
Mothers Day Jewel
15/1
Santana. Jr. R
Bush Thomas M.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


096.0847
1
Salino
6/1
Franco M
McPeek Kenneth G.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


096.0796
8
Dearest Kitten
8/1
Saez L
Maker Michael J.
L
83
26.51
1.57/$1


095.7561
9
Sweet Mission
5/1
Gaffalione T
Hennig Mark A.
FW
83
26.51
1.57/$1


095.4896
6
Malibu Anthem
15/1
Castellano J
Albertrani Thomas
E
83
26.51
1.57/$1


093.4204
4
Exotic Cat
30/1
Harkie H K
Pregman. Jr. John S.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


093.4034
11
Mischief Reigns
30/1
Davis D
Albertrani Thomas


83
26.51
1.57/$1


Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 17.07, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.3888
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Trainer Dirt YTD_Curr*1.5 (M)
*Scratches may change this condition If Race Is Off Turf Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Best
Occ
Win%
ROI


100.0000
3
Gabby Squared
3/1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Brown Chad C.
JTSC
83
26.51
1.57/$1


097.0645
10
Never Content (IRE)
7/2
Ortiz J L
Maker Michael J.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


095.5819
9
Sweet Mission
5/1
Gaffalione T
Hennig Mark A.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


094.7353
2
Little Nutter
10/1
Lezcano J
Klesaris Robert P.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


094.4705
1
Salino
6/1
Franco M
McPeek Kenneth G.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


094.1020
7
Mothers Day Jewel
15/1
Santana. Jr. R
Bush Thomas M.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


093.6770
6
Malibu Anthem
15/1
Castellano J
Albertrani Thomas
E
83
26.51
1.57/$1


093.2169
8
Dearest Kitten
8/1
Saez L
Maker Michael J.
WL
83
26.51
1.57/$1


093.0819
5
Hard Won
8/1
Cancel E
Gyarmati Leah


83
26.51
1.57/$1


091.6890
11
Mischief Reigns
30/1
Davis D
Albertrani Thomas


83
26.51
1.57/$1


089.0729
4
Exotic Cat
30/1
Harkie H K
Pregman. Jr. John S.


83
26.51
1.57/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 39.24, ROI 1.10/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.9355
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Trainer Dirt YTD_Curr*1.5 (M)
*Scratches may change this condition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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Oakland +110
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

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Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
MLB – Giants -110
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
MLB – Royals -115
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Yankees under 10.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Lang Event: (977) Atlanta Braves at (978) Baltimore Orioles
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: August 20, 2021 7PM EDT

Play: Keegan Akin Under 4.5 Strikeouts -110
Keegan Akin has has fallen short of 5 strikeouts in 7 of his 10 starts this season. He's had a brutal season with a 8.13 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and an 0-7 record. Longevity has been an issue for Akin, 8 of his 10 starts have been 4.1 innings or less and his longest start was only 5.1 innings, making it difficult to post big strikeout numbers. The Braves have essentially been strikeout proof against left handed pitching recently, since July 1st they have the 3rd lowest strikeout percentage at 18.6%, the 4th highest walk rate at 10.9% and most impressively the last 13 lefties they have faced went under their respective strikeout totals. Atlantas recent production has been other worldly, during their past 6 games they have scored 47 runs while ranking first in OPS and walks. Between Akins futility and the Braves recent numbers against left handed pitching we are running to the window to bet his under 4.5 strikeouts, especially at a great price of -110.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs Event: (977) Atlanta Braves at (978) Baltimore Orioles
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: August 20, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-120) M Fried (LHP), K Akin (LHP) Must Start