Tuesday 10/12/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday Myths: Quick Claim Returns, Good Bets? October 11, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses who return quickly after being claimed are live bets.

Background:

There’s a school of thought that when a horse is claimed, often the new connections already have a race in mind for that runner. The sooner they return, the better, in terms of intent. A horse claimed and then put away for an extended period is assumed to have some physical issues the new barn is working out. After all, the claiming game is about acquiring, earning and moving runners in and out of your barn.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all horses claimed across North America in 2021. I then set the fliters for the amount of time it took to return to the races, separating them in week increments. The study found just over 9,400 horses to peruse the data.

//

All horses claimed last out returned to win their next start 15.9% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.

//

Horses claimed last out and returned within 0-13 days win their next start 17.1% with $.80 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 14-20 days win their next start 15.0% with $.76 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 21-27 days win their next start 14.9% with $.73 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 28-34 days win their next start 16.5% with $.75 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 35-41 days win their next start 16.9% with $.77 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 42-48 days win their next start 16.7% with $.78 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 49-55 days win their next start 19.1% with $.81 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 56-62 days win their next start 16.1% with $.70 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 63-69 days win their next start 12.8% with $.56 ROI.

Horses claimed last out and returned within 70 or more days win their next start 15.5% with $.74 ROI.

Overall Findings:

The optimum timeframe for success after the claim was 49-55 days both in terms of win percentage (19.1%, more than 2 percent better than any other layoff) and ROI ($0.81 for every $1 bet, slightly better than 0-13 days). The 0-13 day timeframe was second-highest in win % and in ROI. The weakest areas were in the 2-3 week range after being claimed at around 15.0%.

Bottom line:

Wheeling a horse back extremely quick off the claim is a positive sign, but once past that immediacy, the success actually builds to a best plan at the 7-week mark. This handicapping axiom is only somewhat true, but leans predominantly false.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which trainers have success off the claim at various times between the return, or how each of these time slots may change by the tracks you handicap.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Presque Isle Downs - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#8 Ebb Tide
Think she has a right to be tough in this second career start after showing some good pressing pace in the debut run. She has turned in a best-of-20 work at Arlington since that try and is a big danger with any step forward.


#7 Baby No Worries
She's another who ran pretty well in her debut, but she gave away some ground late and had to rally on, and that seems to hint she'll be giving away a big first jump to the top choice today.


#5 Novel Idea
She has been a disappointment so far, but maybe she can wake up a bit as she puts her route pace to use on the cutback. Sharper trip wakes her up a bit?


Race Summary
Ebb Tide should be able to land a perfect trip while right up on the splits, and she draws well to watch everything unfold on her inside. I'd be happy to jump in at the 5/2 ML price.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#8 Orb of the Boro
His form can be all over the place at times, but he has run some decent races on synthetic footing and might be able to bounce back here at a square price.


#3 Straightoutadutton
He has some solid pace to put to use early, but he's meeting a couple other potential forward players and could be softened up a bit in the lane where he tends to give away ground late.


#2 Quartermaster
He's a reliable finishing type who might be able to save a bit of ground near the inside before launching his run. He'll probably offer a playable enough price with this group.


Race Summary
Orb of the Boro ran well in the past when trying synthetic surfaces, and he has some tactical pace that should lead to a dreamy trip from this outside draw. Best stuff would do.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#1 Save the Land
He drops hard for this while adding blinkers, and he might try to have a go of it early from the fence after chasing the splits last time out. Maybe he's able to shake free at some point and get brave?


#9 Wrote in Stone
There's nothing on his page to get excited about so far, but he's getting into a much easier spot while leaving Gulfstream, and he'll get blinkers on again. There's a chance the change of scenery and new footing will wake him up at a price.


#3 Bourbon Brown
Something like his last keeps him right in the mix again, but he has had a dozen chances and probably won't offer an appealing price with these. He can win this, but it's tough to get too excited.


Race Summary
Save the Land gets blinkers while dropping hard out of special weight company, and there isn't any seriously assertive early pace to deal with, so maybe he takes a shot for it out of the gate and never looks back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks The Meadows - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 JEWEL'SBEWITHUS
Rallied into slow pace, rallied past stablemate in qualifier.


#2 FLIRTNROUNDTWN
No match for top one, but gets Lasix and gets Wrenn to drive.


#5 KEA ISLAND
Steady check-getter but hard to back at 0-for-27.


Race Summary
Jewel'sbewithus need not be much to defeat this field in her debut for Team Burke. She rallied to win in her qualifier and her sire was a Breeders Crown champion as a 2-year-old. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.


Pocono Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 OHARE HANOVER
Strong late kick, tries to shift out of 'second' gear.


#1 MOHAWK SEELSTER
Backed up through fast fractions, draws rail with hot driver.


#7 TUFFENUTOWEARPINK
Landed minor awards in last pair, Kakaley's choice on a double call.


Race Summary
Ohare Hanover rallied uncovered from last and finished a clear second to the 2-to-5 winner. He can upstage a series of recent runner-up finishes with a duplicate rally. Play 3-1 and 3-7 exactas.


Yonkers - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#1 BETTOR MEMORIES
Used early, led until late, another photo-finish for win could be in store.


#2 BILL HALEY N
Going well right now, got up for third in faster division of series.


#4 AFLAME HANOVER
Took money, finished behind top pair in last two starts.


Race Summary
Bettor Memories rushed to clear to the lead when he couldn't find an early seat, led to mid-stretch and held second behind the 2-1 pocket sitter. He draws the rail today in search of his 41st victory. Play 1-2, 1-3 and 1-4 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Indiana Grand - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 Benny
Has taken on strong opposition and moves back to the main track after a turf attempt; solid player at this level.


#4 Tapit's Spirit
Was an impressive winner vs. N2L claimers last out and can be a threat out front.


#6 My Girl Lexi
Wore down rivals at Churchill last out and the 3-year-old filly is taking on veteran males.


Race Summary
Benny has battled with accomplished sprinters and should be able to handle these.


Indiana Grand - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#2 Off Ramp
Broke her maiden at first asking at Canterbury and didn't fire a Kentucky Downs, which is common; she moves over to the main track and can take it to this group early.


#4 Trade Secret
Was close in maiden races at Churchill and Saratoga and finally got it done at Monmouth; failed on the Kentucky Downs turf and can be a big player here.


#6 Bourbon Buns
Was along for third last time at Belterra in her first vs. winners; could rally into the exotics.


Race Summary
Off Ramp has exceptional speed and be an important player form the start; can dig in when challenged.


Indiana Grand - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#7 Judy's Market
Was outstanding in three of her last five and was claimed last out by Langemeier, who is hitting at 30 percent; can handle the step up in class.


#8 Betcha
Was an easy winner the last time she was at this level; tried much tougher last time and failed.


#1 Jump Right In
Breezed home to easy wins in her last three races, the latest at this level; running very well and would not be a surprise.


Race Summary
Judy's Market has taken big steps up from the bottom level and is running extremely well; can be a great trip in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes



Finger Lakes - Race 8

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 8-9)



Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $25,900 • Post: 4:33P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * ADDILYN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ALLURE FORTUNE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. GONE AND FORGOTTEN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SHESASUPERFREAK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TWICE SMITTEN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.



5

ADDILYN

6/1


5/1




7

ALLURE FORTUNE

7/2


6/1




2

GONE AND FORGOTTEN

5/2


7/1




3

SHESASUPERFREAK

6/1


10/1




6

TWICE SMITTEN

12/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

SHESASUPERFREAK

3


6/1

Front-runner

73


70


76.6


59.6


52.1




7

ALLURE FORTUNE

7


7/2

Front-runner

77


78


73.0


65.0


59.0




4

DOYOUKNOWWHOIAM

4


10/1

Front-runner

71


71


60.2


66.6


56.1




8

RUSH ON BY

8


4/1

Alternator/Front-runner

74


79


0.0


0.0


0.0




2

GONE AND FORGOTTEN

2


5/2

Stalker

68


77


44.1


65.3


59.3




5

ADDILYN

5


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

76


80


48.6


71.4


66.4




6

TWICE SMITTEN

6


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

73


70


47.0


66.6


56.6




1

QUEEN ARELLA

1


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

72


67


85.4


46.4


36.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants Pass



Grants Pass - Race 1

$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double (Races 1-2) $1 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)



Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 5:15P


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * LOUISANA BUNNY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JESS CANDY LIPS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. NO JUANS FOOL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CUTE GURL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HEZ OUR JOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



6

LOUISANA BUNNY

9/2


4/1




4

JESS CANDY LIPS

5/2


6/1




3

NO JUANS FOOL

6/1


9/1




5

CUTE GURL

7/2


10/1




2

HEZ OUR JOY

9/2


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

EL MORO PRIETO

1


8/1

Slow

72


68


8.1


0.0


0.0




2

HEZ OUR JOY

2


9/2

Average

79


63


5.3


0.0


0.0




3

NO JUANS FOOL

3


6/1

Average

69


70


4.6


0.0


0.0




4

JESS CANDY LIPS

4


5/2

Average

74


75


4.1


0.0


0.0




5

CUTE GURL

5


7/2

Average

78


64


4.2


0.0


0.0




6

LOUISANA BUNNY

6


9/2

Average

85


75


5.2


0.0


0.0




7

KR RUNAWAY FOOSE

7


8/1

Average/Trouble-prone

59


59


6.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 60

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 FOXY RED 8/5




# 11 WILEO PROCEED 30/1




# 4 SUERTUDA 20/1




FOXY RED looks to be a very good contender. Should go to the front end and should never look back. Trainer boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface. Difficult to pass on this filly with Negron in the saddle. WILEO PROCEED - Sedillo is trying to win with this one by bringing her back so soon. SUERTUDA - Has a very strong shot in this contest if you like back class. Can't overlook the connections here, a 23 winning percentage, one of the top at getting into the winner's circle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,100 Class Rating: 82

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE (ML=2/1)
#6 PAISANO (ML=6/1)


MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid race on Oct 3rd. The 82 last race speed fig looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs. PAISANO - Flores is back for another event today after sitting atop this animal for the first ride on Sep 15th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HOT SOCKS (ML=3/1), #4 BEAU BOOK (ML=5/1), #7 KANDY CHARGE (ML=6/1),

HOT SOCKS - Would have to move up off that fifth place finish last time to make an impact here. BEAU BOOK - Didn't hit the board on Sep 10th at Belterra Park. Followed it up with another lackluster performance. KANDY CHARGE - This entrant likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't put in the top spot. Finished second in his most recent effort with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #2 MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 HEAT OF THE NIGHT 9/5




# 1 GENERALONAMISSION 8/1




# 2 MY PAL DAL 10/1




I think HEAT OF THE NIGHT is a solid choice. Has garnered sound speed figures in dirt route races in the past. With a strong jockey who has won at a respectable 33 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top picks. Had one of the top Speed Figures of this group in his last contest. GENERALONAMISSION - Gallardo will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Thistledown - Race #7 - Post: 3:50pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 JERSEY BOUNCE (ML=6/1)
#1A TING TANG (ML=6/1)
#5 CUE THE BAND (ML=7/2)


JERSEY BOUNCE - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this campaigner is meeting an easier bunch than in the last race at Thistledown. TING TANG - Diaz is back for another contest today after racing atop this animal for the 1st ride on September 8th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This thoroughbred picks up a lot of money per race. I believe she can increase the lifetime bankroll in this event. CUE THE BAND - Won her last after shipping in. I like her again. You'll be generating money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jockey/handler combination. Rodriguez comes to ride after getting to know the filly in the last race. That 62 fig this filly notched in her last clash tells me she's a major player today. Shanyfelt brings her right back. I advise you stick with this live filly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE (ML=5/2), #2 BEEBLEGEE (ML=3/1), #3 HELLS BELLS HELEN (ML=9/2),

HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE - Can't really back the favorite when she has multiple failures as the chalk. That was simply not a very good exhibition in the last affair. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. BEEBLEGEE - This horse ran a quite unimpressive speed rating last time around the track. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's event running that figure. HELLS BELLS HELEN - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races of late. Improbable to see her doing it this time around either. That was simply not a very good display in the last clash.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 Entry is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Oct 12 '21, 2:05 PM in 51m
Tennis | Matteo Berrettini vs Taylor Fritz
Play on: Taylor Fritz +250 at William Hill

1* Free Pick on Taylor Fritz +250

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | Astros vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -110 at linepros

My free play is on the Chi White Sox at 2:07 ET.
The White Sox were facing elimination on Sunday but Chicago kept its season alive with a resounding 12-6 victory over the visiting Houston Astros. I had Chicago in that game and here is a good part of what I wrote, regarding Game 3.
The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67.
This best of five series opened Thursday, with Houston winning handily, 6-1, a game I passed. However, I didn't miss out on Houston's 9-4 Game 2 win, which puts the team ONE win away from an ALDS sweep and a FIFTH straight berth in the ALCS. Houston will visit the Chicago White Sox on Sunday night for Game 3 of the teams' ALDS with a 2-0 lead, clicking on the mound and at the plate. Houston pitchers have allowed just five runs and all 18 hits given up have been SINGLES. The Astros have plated 15 runs, while batting .308, including .421 (8 of 19) with RISP. The two playoff wins makes Houston 6-0 in six games at Minute Maid Park in 2021, as the Astros have outscored the White Sox 42-13! However, as Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson said, "Ain't nothing like being at home!" The White Sox expect to be buoyed by a fan base awaiting the franchise's first home playoff game since 2008 but they also know they need more than singles to turn the series around.
Well, home was certainly 'sweet' for the White Sox on Sunday night. After falling behind 6-1, Chicago came back to win 12-6 by pounding on 16 hits, including four HRs (went 8 of 15 with RISP). Starter Cease allowed three runs in 1.2 innings and Kopech allowed three more in 2.1 innings. However, four relievers held Houston not only scoreless over the last five innings but also hitless! The Houston bats had 10 hits apiece in Games 1 and 2, scoring 15 runs and then added six runs in four innings in Game 3, before 'DISAPPEARING!
Houston had a chance to close out Chicago in Monday's Game 4 but it was postponed due to weather concerns. Astros manager Dusty Baker wasted no time after Monday's official postponement of his team's potential series-clinching game to announce he'd be sending right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound in hopes his team can "get it done" in Game 4. Baker applauded MLB's decision to call off Monday's game, which he thought was the fairest thing to do in that it gave both staffs a chance to lick their wounds after the teams had combined for 38 runs in the first three games. "It gives both sides another chance at resting their bullpen," he observed, adding that he'll have all hands on deck for Game 4. "We'll see the effects of it (Tuesday)." Tony La Russa and the White Sox have elected to stick with original Game 4 starter Carlos Rodon (13-8, 2.37 ERA).
McCullers was 13-5 during the regular season and owned the lowest ERA (3.16) among Houston starters. The veteran of 15 postseason appearances with a 2.87 ERA, McCullers pitched brilliantly in Game 1 of the series, shutting out the White Sox over 6.2 innings on four hits without issuing any walks. Rodon entered the season with just a 29-33 (4.14 ERA) career record but his seventh season began with a 'BANG!" He opened 5-0 with an 0.58 ERA, including an April 14th no-hitter against Cleveland (missed a perfect game with a hit batter in the 9th!). The concern here is that Rodon pitched sparingly during the stretch run, as he combated arm fatigue and soreness He has pitched just eight innings since Sep 20, while losing velocity from his fastball.
Manager Tony La Russa said, "He will watch closely." I'll note that Rodon has said, "The last few days, it seemed like I've turned a corner. Ball is coming out good. I feel good. I feel ready." Rodon has started seven career games against the Astros and is 2-0 but more notably, owns a 1.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in those seven starts! I had selected the White Sox to win Monday and while McCullers makes that task tougher this afternoon, I will stick with Chicago to send this series back to Houston Wednesday for a Game 5.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | HOU vs CWS
Play on: OVER 8½ -105

Free Total Annihilator On Astros vs White Sox over 8½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | Astros vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -106 at pinnacle

I like the White Sox's chances at home in this do-or-die Game 4 going with Carlos Rodon. I certainly respect Lance McCullers Jr. He's proven himself as a big-game pitcher. The White Sox couldn't touch him this past Thursday. That was in Houston. Chicago has won 68 percent of its last 74 home games when facing a righty starter. The Astros have lost five straight road games. They are 1-5 in their last six road games against the White Sox. Rodon pitched 14 innings against the Astros this season. He gave up one run in those two starts. I consider Rodon to be the White Sox's best starter. He led Chicago starters with a 2.37 ERA. Rodon should be good for five effective innings. He's backed by a rested and strong bullpen.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | HOU vs CWS
Play on: OVER 8½ -102

1* Free Pick on Astros/White Sox over 8½ -102

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Oct 12 '21, 2:07 PM in 53m
MLB | HOU vs CWS
Play on: UNDER 8½ -108

FREE PICK: White Sox/Astros UNDER 8.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 973/974
I had a free pick on the White Sox money line yesterday, but that game was rained out. Some might just assume I fire back with Chicago, but the day off changed the starting pitching matchup. Instead of Jose Urquidy going for Houston, it will be Lance McCullers Jr.
McCullers absolutely dominated this White Sox offense in Game 1. He allowed just 4 hits and didn't walk a batter over 6 2/3 scoreless innings. He's now 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.841 WHIP in 7 career starts vs Chicago.
White Sox will counter McCullers with Carlos Rodon, who might just be Chicago's best starter at the moment. Rodon went 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 24 starts. He had a 2.26 ERA in 11 home starts and owns a 1.55 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 7 career starts vs the Astros. While I would take the White Sox if I had to take a side, I see a lot more value with the total. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays Oct 12 '21, 2:45 PM in 1h
Soccer | Poland vs Albania
Play on: Poland +110 at Mirage

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Poland +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Oct 12 '21, 2:45 PM in 1h
Soccer | Poland vs Albania
Play on: Poland +110 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Poland +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Oct 12 '21, 5:07 PM in 3h
MLB | Brewers vs Braves
Play on: Braves -145 at SC Consensus

1 Dimer on Braves -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach Oct 12 '21, 5:07 PM in 3h
MLB | Brewers vs Braves
Play on: Brewers +115 at pinnacle

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Tuesday Free Pick Milwaukee Brewers Money Line +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 5:07 ET - The pitchers have yet to be announced for this elimination game Tuesday but I like the Brewers to stave off elimination in this spot regardless of who the starting pitchers are. Milwaukee was the best road team in baseball in the regular season and now I look for them to bounce back off the loss at Atlanta in Game 3. Note that the Braves were barely above .500 at home in the regular season. The Braves just did not prove to have a big home field edge in the regular season and I also prefer the Brewers bullpen over the Atlanta pen. Free Pick MILWAUKEE +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Oct 12 '21, 7:10 PM in 5h
NBA | Raptors vs Wizards
Play on: Wizards -4½ -110 at Caesars

1* on Wizards -4½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy Oct 12 '21, 7:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Appalachian State vs UL-Lafayette
Play on: Appalachian State -3 -110 at linepros

Tuesday CFB Free play. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.
The Mountaineers have definitely had this game circled on their calendar since the schedule was released after they coughed up a 24-21 decision as a home favorite in this same matchup last December. Both teams entered the 2021 season with plenty of optimism and both still have everything in front of them off to identical 4-1 starts. Appalachian State's lone loss came on the road against Miami, by a narrow 25-23 score. Meanwhile, Louisiana-Lafayette opened its season with a 20-point blowout loss on the road against Texas (the Ragin' Cajuns were actually nationally-ranked entering that contest). While Appalachian State has put up a whopping 35.2 points per game against opponents that allow an average of just 31.4 points per contest, Louisiana checks in averaging 28.4 points per game against opponents that given up an average of 29.5 points per contest. While I do like what both teams bring to the table defensively, I give the Mountaineers an edge on offense with a slightly more dynamic attack that has really gotten rolling in recent weeks, racking up at least 163 rush yards and 283 pass yards in their last three contests. It's worth noting that Appalachian State is expected to have outstanding RB Camerun Peoples back for this game as well after he missed their 45-16 rout of Georgia State on October 2nd. Louisiana has seemingly been overvalued from the jump this season, having won just once ATS in its first five games (we actually won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that blowout victory over Ohio on September 16th). Take Appalachian State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Oct 12 '21, 7:38 PM in 6h
NHL | Penguins vs Lightning
Play on: Penguins +215 at BetVegas

Free Pick on Penguins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow Oct 12 '21, 7:38 PM in 6h
NHL | Penguins vs Lightning
Play on: Lightning -185 at SC Consensus

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Lightning -185

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander Oct 12 '21, 9:07 PM in 7h
MLB | Giants vs Dodgers
Play on: Giants +146 at pinnacle

1* MLB - Giants/Dodgers FREE PICK on Giants +146
Tuesday's Free MLB Pick is on the San Francisco Giants as a +146 road dog against the Los Angeles Dodgers. I know LA is facing elimination at home, but this is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants just don't get any respect. Not even being up 2-1 in the series. I just think all the pressure is on the Dodgers and they haven't exactly been delivering. I also have a lot more trust in Giants starter Anthony Desclafani than I do LA's Tony Gonsolin. Bet the Giants +146!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Oct 12 '21, 10:15 PM in 9h
NHL | Seattle Kraken vs Golden Knights
Play on: UNDER 5½ -129

FREE PLAY on Seattle Kraken/Golden Knights under 5½ -129

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Oct 12 '21, 10:40 PM in 9h
NBA | Warriors vs Lakers
Play on: Lakers -4½ -110 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Lakers -4½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hottie4Sports (https://twitter.com/Hottie4Sports)
MLB
HOUSTON ASTROS +1.5 ‑195
0
1
-100


R and R Totals (http://www.randrtotals.com/)
NCAA Football
APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS/LOUISIANA‑LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS u57.5
0
1
-110


Plus EV Wagers (https://www.instagram.com/plusevwagers/)

No pick yet
0
1
-110


5thstreetpicks (https://www.5thstreetpicks.com/)
NBA
TORONTO RAPTORS/WASHINGTON WIZARDS o223.5
0
1
-115


Mikey Money (http://www.sleeperselections.com/)
MLB
CHICAGO WHITE SOX ‑115
0
0
0


Top Shelf Sports Pick (https://www.cappertek.com/picks.asp?shs=BestSportsPicksToday.com)
MLB
ATLANTA BRAVES ‑140
0
0
0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: LA Dodgers Under 7½ Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: HOUSTON/CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Tuesday's Free Selection: Seattle Kraken/Las Vegas Golden Knights over 5 1/2 Goals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins ROZ Selections TUESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2021

FREE CFB

107. App State/UL Laf OVER 57 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports
Tuesday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Tampa Bay Lightning - 195 (NHL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Tuesday's Free Play: Las Vegas Golden Knights - 245

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: Chicago Wsox w/Rodon -115 over Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play TUESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2021

FREE MLB
962. Braves -1.24 (2:07 PT / 5:07 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Tuesday Selection Is
Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay OVER 6 GOALS +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Tuesday : Take MILWAUKEE/ATLANTA UNDER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon
Tuesday Free Play
Vegas -245 NHL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Tuesday's Free Pick: Vegas Golden Knights - 245

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports
Tuesday Free Play
Tampa Bay -195 NHL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph FreePlay 20-9 run TUES NHL Tampa Bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Last Call Tuesday's Free Play: Pittsburgh Penguins + 215

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports FREE PICK 10/12 MLB CHICAGO W.SOX -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Tuesday: HOUSTON/CHICAGO WHITE SOX UNDER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Tuesday: Tampa Bay Lightning - 195

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Tuesday: Houston (McCullers) +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Anthony Sports Your John Anthony Free Selection for Tuesday:
APP ST/LOUISIANA OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Sacco Tony Sacco's Free Play for Tuesday:
Houston/Chic W. Sox OVER 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hollywood Anthony Your Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take LA Dodgers Under 7½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Tudor SPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR TUESDAY

NHL Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay OVER the total of 6 goals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman Event: Poland at Albania
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks (https://www.wagertalk.com/free-sports-picks/soccer))
Date/Time: October 12, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Poland (+110)
World Cup Qualifying Europe
This is actually a huge game for both teams as Albania currently sits in 2nd place with 15 points while Poland is 3rd with 14 pts and only three games remaining in qualifying. It's unlikely either team will catch England for top spot in the group, so this game is likely to settle the 2nd spot which at least earns a chance to qualify through a playoff in next spring.
In the first meeting between these teams, Poland won 4-1 at home. They scored 4 goals on just 1.81 xG while allowing only 0.51 xGA. Poland are often likely to exceed their xG total simply because they have the best goalscorer on the planet right now in Robert Lewandowski.
Ultimately this will be a tough game for Poland and I think the price isn't too far off here but I think Poland's experience in big games and past tournament qualification, like this summer's Euro tournament, will be the difference and enough for them to get a win. I doubt it will be 4-1 again, but I think we see Poland find a way on Tuesday.
TAKE POLAND TO WIN (ML or -0.5)
Line Parameter: 2% to -110, 1% to -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
Sports Services
Free Sports Picks
Place A Bet


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
MLB – White Sox -110
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642GfsGTz_YfB9onf8DuVAkVka/0/)


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
MLB – White Sox over 8.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


3.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
NHL – Lightning -1.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


4.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
NHL – Golden Knights -1.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


5.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
NHL – Lightning over 5.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


6.
PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY) (https://www.pointspreadreport.com)
NHL – Golden Knights over 5.5
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


7.
Winning Big Sports (https://www.winningbigsports.com)
MLB – White Sox over 8.5
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


8.
NSA(Gerry “Big Cat” Andino) (https://www.nsawins.com)
MLB – White Sox -110
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


9.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com)
NHL – Golden Knights -1.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


10.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
NHL – Lightning -1.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


11.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/)
NHL – Golden Knights over 5.5
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


12.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
MLB – White Sox over 8.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


13.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/)
NHL – Lightning over 5.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


14.
SCORE (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)
MLB – White Sox -110
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
NHL – Lightning -1.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


16.
Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
NHL – Golden Knights -1.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


17.
Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
MLB – White Sox -110
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


18.
VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
MLB – White Sox over 8.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
NHL – Golden Knights -1.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)
MLB – White Sox -110
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
NHL – Lightning -1.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
NHL – Golden Knights over 5.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
MLB – White Sox -110
Line @ MyBookie (http://record.webpartners.co/_xfzl4TRUwAgWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
NHL – Lightning over 5.5
Line @ GT Bets (https://www.gtbets.ag/?refer=141)


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – White Sox over 8.5
Line @ Bovada (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gf97H-d5Ks7MGNd7ZgqdRLk/0/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo Event: (961) Milwaukee Brewers at (962) Atlanta Braves
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: October 12, 2021 5PM EDT
Play: Atlanta Braves -149 E Lauer (LHP), C Morton (RHP) Must Start
Can’t back Milwaukee whose bats have gone silent scoring 3 runs or less in 5 straight games including getting shut out in back to back games. Braves should close out this series tonight.
TAKE ATLANTA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia Event: (213321) Deportivo Pereira at (213322) Quindio
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: October 12, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Deportivo Pereira 0.0 (+115)
Deportivo Pereira and Quindio square off in Colombia on Tuesday night in a matchup of mid-table dwellers where if a winner picking up all three points would really aid its cause. Although Quindio is the home team, Pereira owns the lone victory over Atletico Nacional and comes in operating at a high level thanks to the pressure attacking pieces like Wilfrido De la Rosa, Ever Valencia and young kids like Alejandro Piedrahita and Brayan Leon Muniz. Ride Deportivo Pereira in this pick'em at plus money as a spread play, which covers you with a push in case this Liga BetPlay match ends in a draw.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez Event: (51) New York Rangers at (52) Washington Capitals

Sport/League: NHL

Date/Time: October 13, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: New York Rangers +110
51 NY Rangers at 52 Washington Capitals -115, 6o
The National Hockey League choreographed an optimistic plan for a special 2021-22 NHL season. The league has returned the status quo regular 82-game schedule and the Winter Classic is revisited. This 2021 opener between the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers is as intriguing as it gets.
The Capitals All-Star Alex Ovechkin is day to day with a lower-body injury but, "It's possible. I'm not sure," according to coach Peter Laviolette when asked if his captain would dress and skate.

Ovechkin did not practice Sunday nor Monday after being injured on a check near the boards with Flyers forward Travis Konecny in the team's preseason finale Friday. The New York Rangers landed Alexis Lafreniere after winning the first pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. A return to the postseason looks like a given with Igor Shesterkin in the crease combined with the jab of Artemi Panarin and right-cross of Mika Zibanejad. The Free Pick is a play on the visiting Rangers over the Ovechkin-less Caps.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

The runs continued to be hard to come by on Monday afternoon in Atlanta, as the Braves shut out the Brewers for their second straight win in their best-of-five division series against Milwaukee.

All 3 of the games played this far have held Under the total and I do not see this late afternoon start for Tuesday seeing very many runs crossing the plate.

Last year in their run to the N.L.C.S. Atlanta pitching recorded 4 shutouts in their first 5 postseason games played. It sure looks like they are picking up where they left off, as they have already recorded a pair in 3 playoff games this season.

For the season, the Brewers and Braves are now 5-2-1 Under the total for their last 8 season series games played.

Nothing changes today, as the pitching continues to donate the hitting.

Brewers-Braves Under the total.

4* MILWAUKEE-ATLANTA UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gus Augustine

The demise of the Milwaukee Brewers started toward the end of the regular season, not in this series with the Atlanta Braves. A team that took control of the National League Central with a potent offense and complementary pitching became unraveled quicker than Jon Gruden's exit from the Raiders.

Milwaukee ended the season losing four straight and 10 of 14 due to a paltry offense that hit just .207 and slugged only .349. Is it any wonder the Brewers are hitting just .176 in three playoff games, have scored only two runs and have hit just one home run?

It's baffling when you consider the Brewers opened September hitting .248, slugging .413, slammed 19 home runs and plated 73 runs en route to a 10-5 record. That's an average of nearly 5 runs per game.

Again, they've scored just two in three games.

You really think I'm worried about them naming Eric Lauer and Charlie Morton as starters shortly after 11 am eastern, and if I'm even going to insist on you listing them? You could put Tom Glavine on the mound for the Braves for all I care, the Brewers aren't hitting the ball right now, so it won't matter.

Besides, during a season-ending 12-2 stretch, the entire Braves pitching staff has a 2.64 ERA, and has allowed 39 runs - less then 3 runs per game. And on offense, the Braves finished the season hitting .267 while scoring 79 runs and belting 21 home runs.

During the first three games of this series, Braves pitchers have compiled a 0.69 ERA.

This series is over. Play Atlanta.

3* BRAVES RUN LINE