View Full Version : Saturday 3/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Can'tPickAWinner
02-28-2022, 11:02 PM
Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!
NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)
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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)
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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)
College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)
NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)
NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 11:40 AM
Turfway Park Tip Sheet - March 5
TURFWAY PARK TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 60% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $7,500 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
1
Good Alternative
P W Ouzts
PLACE
8-5
7
Beirut Beauty
R Bejarano
SHOW
9-2
6
Waiting On William
S Leon
WILD CARD
7-2
3
Thrombocytopenia
S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
5
Tootsie
A Achard
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
2
Amazing Dancer
G Lagunes
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
RACE #2 $23,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 SOUPER HIGHVOLTAGE
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
1-1
3
Souper Highvoltage
L Machado
PLACE
5-1
5
The Boss Factor
G Corrales
SHOW
6-1
4
Markitoff
A Beschizza
WILD CARD
10-1
7
Cantbetemall
S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
8
Bless the Kitten
A Jimenez
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Clear for Action
G Lagunes
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #3 $10,500 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 SUPER STEAMY
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
2
Super Steamy
J D Ramos
PLACE
6-1
5
Brunella
S Leon
SHOW
3-1
7
Willyoubemine
R Miranda
WILD CARD
6-1
1
Bold Figure
J Morales
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
4
Ragtime Dolly
P W Ouzts
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
6
Seaward
J E Felix
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #4 $62,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 ICARUS
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
8
Icarus
G Corrales
PLACE
5-2
2
Bright Prospecter
A Achard
SHOW
8-1
9
Tim Tal
S Leon
WILD CARD
10-1
7
Leslie Chow
K Kimura
ALTERNATE 1
3-1
5
Formation
M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 2
30-1
1
Beach Holiday
A Jimenez
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX
RACE #5 $125,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:14 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-1
8
Erase
R Eikleberry
PLACE
20-1
1
Goldeneye
A Jimenez
SHOW
15-1
3
La Belleza Negra
E Morales
WILD CARD
15-1
6
Legendary Lore
R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1
7-2
11
Bloodline
M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 2
5-2
10
Tiz the Bomb
A Achard
* EXACTA: 1,3,6,8 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,8/1,3,6,8/1,3,6,8,11
COMMENTS: ERASE won his last on Turfway all-weather with the highest, last race speed figure. GOLDENEYE shows big time improvement in his second career start with an easy win over the synthetic surface. LA BELLEZA NEGRA won his last by 11 lengths and could be better in the third start off the sidelines. LEGENDARY LORE has some of the best late pace numbers in the field and could make noise at the wire.
RACE #6 $125,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:46 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 CINCINNATI TROPHY STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
1-1
5
Marissas Lady
R Bejarano
PLACE
10-1
1
Valentina Day
G Corrales
SHOW
6-1
8
Tap Dancing Lady
A Jimenez
WILD CARD
7-2
9
Bubble Rock
M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
6
Queen Judith
C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2
5-1
2
Bhoma
A Achard
* EXACTA: 5/1,8,9
* TRIFECTA: 5/1,8,9/1,6,8,9
COMMENTS: MARISSAS LADY is undefeated in four races. VALENTINA DAY should have a fast pace to close into at the end. TAP DANCING LADY is two necks from winning her last three. BUBBLE ROCK finished a distant second to our top choice on her last effort.
RACE #7 $64,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
7
Rue de Bac
M Pedroza Jr.
PLACE
5-2
1
Beautiful Empire
K Kimura
SHOW
7-2
5
Royal County
S Leon
WILD CARD
30-1
6
Nebuli
J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
10
Blest Life
J E Felix
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
3
Southern Miss
C Landeros
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #8 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
7
Sugar Happy
S Leon
PLACE
12-1
1
Run With Grace
R Mojica Jr.
SHOW
9-2
4
Minglewood
A Beschizza
WILD CARD
10-1
11
Notreallynotreally
S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
13
Cross the Ts
E Morales
ALTERNATE 2
4-1
10
Kick Out the Jams
L Machado
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/4/11 BOX
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 11:41 AM
Quick Picks for March 5, 2022
Aqueduct Racetrack (NYRA)
Race #1- #7 DISCO PHAROAH; #1 SINFUL DANCER; #3 VINNY TWO CENTS
Race #2- #4 LONG TERM; #5 IMPROPER; #3 CATHEDRAL BEACH
Race #3- #1 REPO ROCKS; #5 CHATEAU; #3 OFFICIATING
Race #4- #1 VICTORY BUILT; #3 MATTY’S MARAUDER; #7 FORGOTTEN MISSION
Race #5- #5 SENSIBLECONCLUSION; #6 STATE PLANNING; #1 MOPED DENNIS
Race #6- #3 BEACH BOY AL; #5 HOT ROD RUMBLE; #2 LIMIT UP
Race #7- #5 CHRIS AND DAVE; #8 KUMAR; #6 F F ROCKET
Race #8- #1A CASTLE CHAOS; #1 STANDUP; #5 BUSTIN SHOUT
Race #9- #2 STERLING SILVER; #5 MAGIC CIRCLE; #3 MORNING MATCHA
Race #10- #9 MORELLO; #10 ROCKEFELLER; #8 BOLD JOURNEY
Charles Town Racing
Race #1- #4 POWER SONDE; #6 MARLEESBEEBEE; #2 DEREKA’S BLUFF
Race #2- #7 TEMPESTA; #5 NOW I’M BROKE; #1 MARK DID IT
Race #3- #6 ALWAYS MIA; #1 NAMEEOMEE; #4 AMERICAN BOUND
Race #4- #2 TAKE CHARGE TINA; #5 DANCE LIGHTLY; #1 I AM I WILL
Race #5- #8 CANDY INVASION; #6 ALLEN CAN DO IT; #4 STRONG HEART
Race #6- #3 HOUSE WRECKER; #2 DUBAI WAS LIT; #4 MARY’S JEWEL
Race #7- #6 MENDING; #5 MOONLIT SHADOW; #1 FUDGE CAKE
Race #8- #3 TOTALLY PERFECT; #4 TRAVEL GIRL; #8 CHRISTINE’S COSMO
Delta Downs
Race #1- #1 FASHION MERIT; #3 BYANYMEANS; #4 OUR LITTLE GIRL
Race #2- #6 DIXIE LADY; #2 SWEET PRAYERS; #4 PAISLEY CROSS
Race #3- #3 MYLIES STAR; #2 BEANIE; #4 CORBIN’S WILD ACES
Race #4- #12 DURITZ; #11 MAJESTIC SOCIETY; #5 BLAZING CHARLIE
Race #5- #9 CALICO JOE; #2 PITCH AND RUN; #1 LIFE IS A BANQUET
Race #6- #3 BEAUX TOX; #9 LONE STAR SECRET; #10 C. F. SHELAUH
Race #7- #3 SPA CITY; #6 FROSTED GRACE; #5 DOUBLE STAR
Race #8- #6 MASTERLY; #5 CLASSIC GREELEY; #2 NATEALYZE
Race #9- #11 LIKEN IT; #4 RELAX TOWN; #8 TURN ON THE MAGIC
Race #10- #2 SHADY GRADY; #6 KANNON WITH A K; #11 MACHO BOB
Fair Grounds Race Course
Race #1- #5 TRIPPER JOHN; #3 TOTALLY ADDICTED; #7 FLUFFPOINT
Race #2- #4 HELAIRE; #6 MARLIESRAJUNCAJUN; #2 PERRINS
Race #3- #5 COURTHOUSE COVE; #4 RUNANDHIDE WIND; #1 FEROCITY
Race #4- #6 NET A BEAR; #2 OFFSPRING; #1 WINNING ROMANCE
Race #5- #3 DIAL TEN FOR G; #1 SURREY; #2 DASHING HERO
Race #6- #7 DOWAGIAC CHIEF; #1 HOLY CITY; #2 TOMMY BEE
Race #7- #7 BIG CHOPPER; #4 EDDIE’S HUMOR; #6 TAMBOURINE STAR
Race #8- #6 WHO TOOK THE MONEY; #7 MANGELSEN; #2 BEHEMAH STAR
Race #9- #6 POINT OF VICTORY; #3 NEW YEAR’S PARTY; #4 GILDED APPLE
Gulfstream Park
Race #1- #12 YOU’RE KILLIN ME; #10 HANDSOME PRINCE; #2 AWESOME BEACH
Race #2- #6 VETERANS HIGHWAY; #10 TEQUILERA; #14 SIEMPRE ELEGANTE
Race #3- #2 NEVER SURPRISED; #6 CLEAR VISION; #5 NOBLE INDY
Race #4- #14 STAY RESTLESS; #13 MACKILLOP; #10 POSITIVE REVIEW
Race #5- #2 HARAJUKU; #7 FAMILY WAY; #8 BEAUTIFUL LOVER
Race #6- #2 CLASSY EDITION; #4 OUTFOXED; #3 GIRL WITH A DREAM
Race #7- #6 ROYAL SPIRIT; #2 COINAGE; #9 RED DANGER
Race #8- #7 STAGE RAIDER; #10 SOUP AND SANDWICH; #2 CAPOCOSTELLO
Race #9- #8 WAKANAKA; #7 ALMS; #6 GIFT LIST
Race #10- #6 NY TRAFFIC; #4 FEARLESS; #9 DIAMOND OOPS
Race #11- #6 SAFE CONDUCT; #10 SHAMROCKET; #1 ABAAN
Race #12- #8 EMMANUEL; #4 IN DUE TIME; #9 HIGH OAK
Race #13- #3 DIAMOND WOW; #5 BESIDE HERSELF; #9 HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY
Laurel Park
Race #1- #1A D’ RAPPER; #6 STROLL SMOKIN; #3 SPITBALL
Race #2- #6 MILITARY HOP; #7 TOM TERRIFIC; #9 COOKE BROTHERS
Race #3- #2 KEEN MACHINE; #6 FEEL THE GLORY; #1 BELLIFY
Race #4- #2 GOODLUCKCHUCK; #6 ROUGH SEA; #5 UNEQUIVOCAL
Race #5- #5 QUEEN CASHMERE; #1 KYMMIES CHARDONNAY; #3 MAGIC IN ME
Race #6- #4 WHO KNOWS WHAT; #5 TRITONE GAL; #1 RESPONSE TIME
Race #7- #2 BIRTHDAY WISH; #6 STRIKE MAGIC; #5 LIGHTFOOT MISS
Race #8- #2 FINDING FAME; #3 JUROR NUMBER FOUR; #5 DECOUPAGE
Race #9- #2 BRETTMEISTER; #8 HOLIDAY AVENUE; #4 PHRA PHROM
Louisiana Downs
Race #1- #8 FLYINGONTHEGROUND; #9 SHES JESSA AN EAGLE; #4 PK PURE ROGUE
Race #2- #9 SWEET JESSIE MAE AW; #5 JJ FREIGHT STAR; #8 MP DONT LOOK
Race #3- #5 ZEE RUNAWAY TRAIN; #4 LEZGO BRANDON; #6 UPANDOVER THE MOON
Race #4- #4 RACEY CARTEL; #1 AJS STREAK OF FIRE; #6 SHAYLEE BLEU
Race #5- #3 LEAVING THE EDGE; #7 CR BLACK PENNY; #4 LOOK JET
Race #6- #3 ONEMOREWILDTRAIN; #7 MISS COVID 2020; #9 BRILEYS FAST PRIZE
Race #7- #6 MAMAIGOTTHIS; #1 PTOLEMA; #8 LUCI BLUE
Race #8- #5 PAQUITA PERRY PILOTO; #3 GOOD LOOKIN PATRIOT; #9 CARTERS BABY BLUES
Race #9- #9 ONE FINE BEAST; #4 U NO IMA PATRIOT; #8 MAKING SEPERATE WAYS
Race #10- #4 JP LITTLE JOANN; #7 BUGS GONE ROGUE; #2 LADY GENEVIEVE
Race #11- #2 PILOTOS LIL BELAIRE; #5 JM TEE COS MON COEUR; #7 BP PRETTY GIRL
Mahoning Valley Race Course
Race #1- #2 LIL RICKYS JEWEL; #6 CARSON’S ROCKET; #5 VOLUME LEADER
Race #2- #1 SONGSTOPSHELF; #3 SWEET EVY GRACE; #2 LOVELY LADY LINDA
Race #3- #8 WAR MOON; #3 ZVOLUME; #7 ALWAYS ON THE ROX
Race #4- #2 CLEVELAND SIMPSON; #7 JOYRIDE; #6 KING OF THE RING
Race #5- #5 CADILLAC RIDE; #4 WILDCAT BILL; #8 LAYITONTHICK
Race #6- #1 ALACRITOUS; #3 ATTUCK; #7 AZTEC EMPIRE
Race #7- #6 BULLION; #4 SILENT TIGER; #5 OVERBEARING
Race #8- #7 FED BIZ THE KIDD; #2 BATTLE BORN; #6 JUJU NINETEEN
Oaklawn Park
Race #1- #4 FREUDIAN FATE; #8 D’ YANK; #3 PETIT VERDOT
Race #2- #7 ERNIE BANKER; #3 INCORRUPTIBLE; #6 SHACKS WAY
Race #3- #9 NAME REJECTED; #6 BREAKING NEWS; #2 TANGO CHARLIE
Race #4- #8 PRIVATE LAKE; #13 DR. FORMAN; #2 HARDLY A SECRET
Race #5- #7 ONE FOR RICHIE; #8 SEAU; #9 BACHELOR PAD
Race #6- #8 KABOOM BABY; #4 CONNIE K; #6 LADY ASTRID
Race #7- #9 OILER; #5 CONTRABANDISTA; #6 UNCAPTURED DREAM
Race #8- #5 SEVEN NATION ARMY; #8 HOME BASE; #4 TOPPER T
Race #9- #9 GAR HOLE; #3 TEMPT FATE; #2 BANDIT POINT
Race #10- #11 BEGUINE; #8 RUN THE TAP; #6 STAR TABLE
Sam Houston Race Park
Race #1- #7 VAZS DANCING HESS; #1A RB BLAIR HOPE; #5 PROUD AMERICAN
Race #2- #3 WONDERS OF HISLOVE; #6 IT’S MY MONEY; #4 K C TIZ MORO
Race #3- #4 REALLY SLOW; #2 DURITZ; #7 ISTAN WARRIOR
Race #4- #5 SPORT COAT; #1A WITT AMERICA; #6 BODYMOOR HEATH
Race #5- #3 BIG BERNIE; #8 LEVY; #2 BRICK TOWN
Race #6- #2 IZZY’S BABY BOY; #8 DREWZANO; #1 MAXI MOON
Race #7- #8 HOLY CREED; #7 PYRAMID PRINCESS; #1 GREAT IN RED
Race #8- #3 FEEL THE FEAR; #1 PHILO BEDDOE; #6 AKHNAS
Race #9- #3 CLAIMJUMPER; #5 FEARLESS PRINCE; #7 VICKSLINCOLNLAWYER
Santa Anita Park
Race #1- #4 CANE CREEK ROAD; #11 NEWPARK; #5 CITY RAGE
Race #2- #7 MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT; #4 TAIBA; #2 OVERRULE
Race #3- #1 BRISTOL BAYOU; #8 STORMING LADY; #6 SADIE BLUEGRASS
Race #4- #6 EIGHT RINGS; #1 BRICKYARD RIDE; #9 SHOOTERS SHOOT
Race #5- #10 GOING TO VEGAS; #5 LEGGS GALORE; #11 MUCHO UNUSUAL
Race #6- #6 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM; #2 WORSE READ SANCHEZ; #5 DOPPELGANGER
Race #7- #1 GOT THUNDER; #6 WIN THE DAY; #3 LIL BRO COOP
Race #8- #11 HONEY JAR; #8 THAT’S AMARE; #5 ULTIMATE HY
Race #9- #3 AS TIME GOES BY; #6 ENVOUTANTE; #4 FOUNDER’S DAY
Race #10- #4 COUNT AGAIN; #8 SPACE TRAVELLER; #2 SUBCONSCIOUS
Race #11- #6 EXPRESS TRAIN; #8 STILLETO BOY; #3 WARRANT
Sunland Park
Race #1- #5 FOUR OH ONE KAY; #6 REDD METAL; #4 BOSSY BABY
Race #2- #9 CORONA A CHICKS; #5 PINE WOOD; #6 COUNTING STARS
Race #3- #7 THE MAUI DIAMOND; #9 STREAK N CARTEL; #6 CLINCHMAN
Race #4- #5 GABBIE; #7 EL QUEMADITO; #1 TWO MORE WINES
Race #5- #5 VALIANT RANGER; #2 KISS B RICH; #1 PETRIFIED
Race #6- #3 RUN TIME; #9 DADDYS MONY; #7 ROCK SOLID PEBBLES
Race #7- #4 NORWOOD; #1 THIRSTY ECHO; #7 KIRBY DERBY
Race #8- #3 SHERIFF BROWN; #2 ZESTFUL; #5 CONVENTION
Race #9- #3 LONG RANGER; #2 FI FI D'ORO; #6 ROX FROM NAVARONE
Race #10- #2 SOULONG; #7 CEBOLLA; #9 KEY TO THE CITY
Tampa Bay Downs
Race #1- #5 BUMBLELICIOUS; #4 BLAZINONBAYOU; #2 DONTMESSWITHTESS
Race #2- #6 OLD TIMER’S DAY; #2 NICK THE CARDSHARK; #5 FIREHORN
Race #3- #5 KATY AND EMMA; #6 GEE GEE’S CURLIN; #1 PURTIZ
Race #4- #8 MAGIC MIKAELA; #1 MAARTY’S DILEMMA; #3 TEA’S DREAM
Race #5- #3 ANGELUS DIAMOND; #2 STARSHIP OREO; #5 SKILLFUL
Race #6- #4 CHARLES CHROME; #6 BABY BOOMER; #8 READY TO REPEAT
Race #7- #1 CHILLIN LADY; #7 LADY MIDAS; #3 GONE DREAMING
Race #8- #2 HARPOON HARRY; #5 HIGHGATE ROAD; #9 BROTHER IN ARMS
Race #9- #11 MENTORING; #6 MAINTAINER; #8 CHARGING AERO
Race #10- #9 UNLEVERAGED; #6 D'CRAZINESS; #3 FIG JELLY
Turfway Park
Race #1- #4 HOT DAME; #5 TOOTSIE; #2 AMAZING DANCER
Race #2- #3 SOUPER HIGHVOLTAGE; #8 BLESS THE KITTEN; #1 CLEAR FOR ACTION
Race #3- #1 BOLD FIGURE; #7 WILLYOUBEMINE; #4 RAGTIME DOLLY
Race #4- #2 BRIGHT PROSPECTER; #8 ICARUS; #9 TIM TAL
Race #5- #10 TIZ THE BOMB; #4 STOLEN BASE; #6 LEGENDARY LORE
Race #6- #5 MARISSA’S LADY; #4 HAL’S DREAM; #2 BHOMA
Race #7- #1 BEAUTIFUL EMPIRE; #4 STEPPER; #3 SOUTHERN MISS
Race #8- #2 SODDY DAISY; #7 SUGAR HAPPY; #1 RUN WITH GRACE
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 12:03 PM
Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - March 5SANTA ANITA TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $69,000 ALLOWANCE
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 GOLD PHOENIX
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
8
Gold Phoenix
F Prat
PLACE
12-1
3
Burnin Turf
D Van Dyke
SHOW
5-1
10
See Through It
E A Maldonado
WILD CARD
8-1
4
Cane Creek Road
A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
7
Constitutionaffair
T Baze
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
9
Cali Bay
U Rispoli
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/10 BOX, 3/4/10 BOX
RACE #2 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:28 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 TAIBA
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
4
Taiba
J R Velazquez
PLACE
6-1
7
Magicnthemoonlight
A Cedillo
SHOW
5-2
5
Mauritius
F Prat
WILD CARD
8-1
6
Tenth Street Don
J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
2
Overrule
M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Pioneering Papa
D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #3 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:58 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 SADIE BLUEGRASS
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
6
Sadie Bluegrass
B Pena
PLACE
5-2
1
Bristol Bayou
D Fukumoto
SHOW
3-1
5
Savvy Gal
D Van Dyke
WILD CARD
3-1
8
Storming Lady
J Pyfer
ALTERNATE 1
15-1
3
Respectfully
J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
2
Mylittlerunaway
R Ramirez
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
RACE #4 $200,000 STAKES
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:28 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 SAN CARLOS STAKE G2
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
4
Cezanne
F Prat
PLACE
3-1
1
Brickyard Ride
J J Hernandez
SHOW
5-1
3
Canadian Pride
E A Maldonado
WILD CARD
15-1
5
Principe Carlo
K Frey
ALTERNATE 1
3-1
6
Eight Rings
J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2
4-1
9
Shooters Shoot
V Espinoza
* EXACTA: 1,3,4,5 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,4/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5,6
COMMENTS: CEZANNE should get a good stalking trip behind a lot of early speed. BRICKYARD RIDE has won eight of 11 Santa Anita starts. CANADIAN RIDE should be at/near peak form in his third start off the bench with three consecutive speed figure increases. PRINCIPE CARLO improved significantly in the first half-mile of his last effort.
RACE #5 $200,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:58 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 BUENA VISTA STAKES G2
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
5
Leggs Galore
R Gonzalez
PLACE
6-1
2
Tony Ann
U Rispoli
SHOW
4-1
11
Mucho Unusual
J R Velazquez
WILD CARD
3-1
10
Going to Vegas
F Prat
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
8
Canoodling
R Chirinos
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
1
Closing Remarks
J Bravo
* EXACTA: 2,5,10,11 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,5,11/2,5,10,11/2,5,8,10,11
COMMENTS: LEGGS GALORE has five wins and a second is seven at Santa Anita. TONY ANN is 3/4 a length from winning four in a row and is likely to be better in the second start off the bench. MUCHO UNUSUAL can win from anywhere on the track, the versatility should help. GOING TO VEGAS has been working well since blowing a tire in the Breeders Cup.
RACE #6 $400,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $400,000 SAN FELIPE STAKES G2
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
6
Forbidden Kingdom
J J Hernandez
PLACE
9-5
5
Doppelganger
F Prat
SHOW
5-1
3
Armagnac
J R Velazquez
WILD CARD
12-1
4
Beautiful Art
M E Smith
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
7
Cabo Spirit
V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
1
Happy Jack
A Cedillo
* EXACTA: 5,6/3,4,5,6
* TRIFECTA: 5,6/3,4,5,6/3,4,5,6,7
COMMENTS: FORBIDDEN KINGDOM ran the top, last race speed figure and could move it up a notch in his second start after a layoff. DOPPELGANGER has some track position issues in his last, a cleaner trip is all he needs, ARMAGNAC should be on the gas from go. Jockey John Velazquez and trainer Bob Baffert won 7 of 15 together. BEAUTIFUL ART improved a lot in the later part of his last race, cutting his 6 furlong fractions by more than 2 seconds.
RACE #7 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
5
War At Sea
M E Smith
PLACE
6-5
1
Got Thunder
F Prat
SHOW
6-1
6
Win the Day
D A Herrera
WILD CARD
5-2
9
Tuskegee Cat
A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
7
Barnfield
U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
4
Legally Reddy
J Espinoza
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX
RACE #8 $69,000 ALLOWANCE
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 6:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
11
Honey Jar
F Prat
PLACE
5-1
8
Thats Amare
U Rispoli
SHOW
10-1
3
Mendham Mill
K Frey
WILD CARD
20-1
1
Ever Smart
R Curatolo
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
7
Taming the Tigress
A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
6
Kalon
J J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 11-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/11 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 BEHOLDER MILE STAKES G1
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-1
5
Miss Bigly
R A Vazquez
PLACE
4-5
3
As Time Goes By
F Prat
SHOW
6-1
1
Varda
J J Hernandez
WILD CARD
8-5
6
Envoutante
J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1
30-1
4
Founders Day
R Curatolo
* EXACTA: 1,3,5,6 Box
* TRIFECTA: 3,5/1,3,5,6/1,3,5,6
COMMENTS: MISS BIGLY has five wins, a second and two thirds in eight at the distance. AS TIME GOES BY won her last by 13, a big race is usually followed by another. VARDA has been off for more than a year but has been working well. ENVOUTANTE can win from the front, middle or back.
RACE #10 $500,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:29 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 FRANK E KILROE MILE STAKES G1
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-1
2
Subconscious
J J Hernandez
PLACE
7-2
4
Count Again
F Prat
SHOW
6-1
6
Law Professor
A Cedillo
WILD CARD
8-1
3
Beyond Brilliant
V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
8
Space Traveller
J P Spencer
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
5
Whisper Not
R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 2,3,4,6 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,6/2,3,4,6/2,3,4,6,8
COMMENTS: SUBCONSCIOUS should be better in his second start after a layoff. COUNT AGAIN has three wins and third in five at the distance. LAW PROFESSOR has a win and a third in two on turf. BEYOND BRILLIANT has never missed the board in five efforts.
RACE #11 $650,000 STAKES
1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:00 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $650,000 SANTA ANITA HANDICAP G1
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
6
Express Train
V Espinoza
PLACE
5-2
8
Stilleto Boy
J R Velazquez
SHOW
20-1
4
Soy Tapatio
D A Herrera
WILD CARD
8-1
1
Spielberg
A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
3
Warrant
F Prat
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
5
American Theorem
M E Smith
* EXACTA: 1,4,6,8 Box
* TRIFECTA: 4,6,8/1,4,6,8/1,3,4,6,8
COMMENTS: EXPRESS TRAIN should be at/near peak fitness in his third off the bench. STILLETO BOY ran the highest, last race speed figure with strong late pace improvement. SOY TAPATIO is stepping way up in class but could catch a fast pace to close in to. SPEILBERG has two nice works, including a bullet between races.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 12:05 PM
Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - March 5TAMPA BAY TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
6
Queen Tiger
J L Castanon
PLACE
8-5
1
Daily Briefing
P Morales
SHOW
9-2
5
Bumblelicious
J V Bridgmohan
WILD CARD
5-1
4
Blazinonbayou
A Santos
ALTERNATE 1
9-2
3
Spanish Delight
W A Garcia
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
7
Maliciosa
D Chavez
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $6,250 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-1
7
Odds On
J A Batista
PLACE
7-2
5
Firehorn
H Villa-Gomez
SHOW
8-1
3
Optimal Courage
A Quinonez
WILD CARD
5-2
2
Nick the Cardshark
A A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1
3-1
6
Old Timers Day
I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Blame Bishop
M Arroyo
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #3 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 PURTIZ
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
1
Purtiz
O Hernandez
PLACE
5-2
8
Bunny Princess
A Valdes
SHOW
8-1
2
CEst Parti
W Henry
WILD CARD
12-1
10
Lady Manhattan
D Delgado
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
4
Fabiola Princess
C Lozada
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
5
Katy and Emma
M Arroyo
* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 2/8/10 BOX
RACE #4 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
7
Libertalia
J A Batista
PLACE
4-1
8
Magic Mikaela
I Castillo
SHOW
7-2
3
Teas Dream
H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD
5-1
2
Real Good Vybz
J C Ferrer
ALTERNATE 1
9-2
12
Blue Neith
J L Castanon
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
10
Misspoken
J V Bridgmohan
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX
RACE #5 $8,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 STAYIN OR STRAYIN
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
9
Stayin Or Strayin
P Morales
PLACE
3-1
7
Onlyamatteroftime
D Centeno
SHOW
2-1
5
Skillful
I Castillo
WILD CARD
8-1
2
Starship Oreo
M Rowland
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
6
Macho Real
E Perez
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
4
Action Warrior
G Wales
* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $31,500 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
7
Oceanic
J L Castanon
PLACE
7-2
8
Ready to Repeat
D Centeno
SHOW
3-1
4
Charles Chrome
P Morales
WILD CARD
6-1
2
R Mercedes Boy
O Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
9
A Rose for Raven
A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2
9-2
6
Baby Boomer
A Santos
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
RACE #7 $8,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
8
Sparkling Plenty
S Camacho
PLACE
5-2
3
Gone Dreaming
H R Diaz Jr.
SHOW
3-1
2
Julies Grace
I Castillo
WILD CARD
4-1
4
Melancholy Blues
A Santos
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
1
Chillin Lady
M Rowland
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Quality too Spare
S Spanabel
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #8 $30,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
2
Harpoon Harry
J L Castanon
PLACE
8-1
9
Brother in Arms
J A Batista
SHOW
8-1
8
Le Coste
I Castillo
WILD CARD
9-5
4
Supply Chain
S Camacho
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
3
Snows Island
P Morales
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Highgate Road
H R Diaz Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX
RACE #9 $35,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
12-1
4
Double Warrior
J C Ferrer
PLACE
5-1
11
Mentoring
O Hernandez
SHOW
4-1
6
Maintainer
H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD
10-1
1
Isle of Skye
S Spanabel
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
8
Charging Aero
A A Marin
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
10
Anarchist
J E Lopez
* EXACTA: 4-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/11 BOX, 1/6/11 BOX
RACE #10 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 UNLEVERAGED
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
9
Unleveraged
J L Castanon
PLACE
5-2
6
Dcraziness
S Camacho
SHOW
7-2
3
Fig Jelly
P Morales
WILD CARD
10-1
10
Domain
I Castillo
ALTERNATE 1
15-1
5
Professional
D Centeno
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Minnesota Lucky
A Quinonez
* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/9 BOX, 3/6/10 BOX
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 12:06 PM
Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - March 5OAKLAWN PARK TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $29,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 NEWS BOX
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
6
News Box
R Santana Jr.
PLACE
4-1
4
Freudian Fate
F Arrieta
SHOW
9-2
5
Archiemyboy
A Lopez
WILD CARD
8-1
2
Futile
D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 1
3-1
8
D Yank
E Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Petit Verdot
J Hiraldo
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $28,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:29 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
3
Incorruptible
R Diaz
PLACE
6-1
4
Terawatt
D Cabrera
SHOW
9-2
7
Ernie Banker
C A Torres
WILD CARD
9-5
1
Mr. Thunderstruck
E Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
6
Shacks Way
K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
5
Nip N Tuck
F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #3 $44,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 NAME REJECTED
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
2-1
9
Name Rejected
R Santana Jr.
PLACE
6-1
8
Salado
C A Torres
SHOW
8-1
4
Beer Chaser
W De La Cruz
WILD CARD
7-2
6
Breaking News
F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Tango Charlie
D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
1
Cold as Hell
L Contreras
* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
RACE #4 $8,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:33 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
2
Hardly a Secret
D Cohen
PLACE
4-1
6
Eagle Pass
L Contreras
SHOW
6-1
1
Knights Cross
F Arrieta
WILD CARD
10-1
10
Slick Silver
C Bailey
ALTERNATE 1
7-2
13
Dr. Forman
K Harr
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
5
Splash for Gold
E Gonzalez
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/10 BOX
RACE #5 $29,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 ONE FOR RICHIE
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
7
One for Richie
F Arrieta
PLACE
5-1
6
Win With Pride
D Cabrera
SHOW
4-1
4
Dont Forget
C A Torres
WILD CARD
6-1
5
Tappin Fora Dance
M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1
9-2
8
Seau
D Cohen
ALTERNATE 2
5-1
9
Bachelor Pad
J Hiraldo
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #6 $150,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 DOWNTHEDUSTYROAD BREEDERS STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
4
Connie K
J K Court
PLACE
5-1
1
Richness
C Bailey
SHOW
3-1
8
Kaboom Baby
L S Quinonez
WILD CARD
8-1
2
Unbridled Twister
R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
9-2
7
Too Pretty
F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2
4-1
5
Hillary G
D Cabrera
* EXACTA: 1,2,4,8 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,4,8/1,2,4,8/1,2,4,7,8
COMMENTS: CONNIE K is two for two at Oaklawn, both blowouts at todays distance. RICHNESS is an all or nothing horse that seems to have found the all in 2022 with two wins in two tries. KABOOM BABY hit the board in seven of seven races at the track and distance. UNBRIDLED TWISTER showed in-race improvement across the board in her last.
RACE #7 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:04 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
6
Uncaptured Dream
L Contreras
PLACE
7-2
9
Oiler
R Santana Jr.
SHOW
9-2
8
Popster
F Arrieta
WILD CARD
8-1
5
Contrabandista
A L Canchari
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
3
Driven One
M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2
4-1
7
Cole Spur
D Cabrera
* EXACTA: 6-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/9 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX
RACE #8 $101,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:39 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
2-1
5
Seven Nation Army
R Diaz
PLACE
6-1
6
Whiskey Double
D Cabrera
SHOW
5-2
8
Home Base
F Arrieta
WILD CARD
9-2
3
Much Better
F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
7
Atoka
L Contreras
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
1
Mojo Man
R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 NODOUBLE BREEDERS STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
2-1
9
Gar Hole
R Santana Jr.
PLACE
4-1
3
Tempt Fate
F Geroux
SHOW
8-1
1
Mrs. Beans
G Franco
WILD CARD
8-1
6
Souixper Charger
L S Quinonez
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
7
K Js Nobility
D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
5
Big Success
D Cohen
* EXACTA: 1,3,9/1,3,6,9
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,9/1,3,9/1,3,6,7,9
COMMENTS: GAR HOLE won his last three and none of them were closer than 3 1/4 lengths. TEMPT FATE finished in the money nine of 10 at the distance. MRS. BEANS resume says she will be better in her second start following a short rest. SOUIXPER CHARGER should be closing at the end and would benefit from a strong early pace.
RACE #10 $84,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
11
Beguine
F Arrieta
PLACE
8-1
3
Madelyns Magic
K Harr
SHOW
8-1
2
Decade of Dreams
G Franco
WILD CARD
8-1
6
Star Table
T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
4
I Feel the Need
C Bailey
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Run the Tap
D Cohen
* EXACTA: 11-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/11 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 01:47 PM
Gulfstream Park Tip Sheet - March 5GULFSTREAM PARK TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $54,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
12
Youre Killin Me
T Gaffalione
PLACE
6-1
6
Jesss Stride
J M Rios
SHOW
9-2
4
Twice too Many
L Saez
WILD CARD
8-1
9
Friendly Fella
H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
5
Tiger
J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
7
The Ice Beast
J Castellano
* EXACTA: 12-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/12 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX
RACE #2 $60,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 VETERANS HIGHWAY
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
6
Veterans Highway
L Saez
PLACE
7-2
11
Falconet
T Gaffalione
SHOW
10-1
5
Love to Run
E Gonzalez
WILD CARD
9-2
1
Signal From Noise
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1
20-1
14
Siempre Elegante
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Tiffanys Mo
J Rosario
* EXACTA: 6-11 BOX, 11-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/11 BOX, 1/5/11 BOX
RACE #3 $150,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 CANADIAN TURF STAKES G3
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-5
2
Never Surprised
L Saez
PLACE
6-1
6
Clear Vision
J L Ortiz
SHOW
8-1
4
Mira Mission
J R Leparoux
WILD CARD
8-1
3
English Bee
P Lopez
ALTERNATE 1
7-2
7
Mouillage
I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Sigiloso
J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 2,3,4,6 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,6/2,3,4,6/2,3,4,6,7
COMMENTS: NEVER SURPRISED has four wins and four seconds in eight on grass. CLEAR VISION improved his late pace considerably in his last. MIRA MISSION is undefeated in three at Gulfstream, just one win in six elsewhere. ENGLISH BEE could improve in his second start after a layoff.
RACE #4 $60,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 PARTICULAR
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
1
Particular
T Gaffalione
PLACE
6-1
11
Felix
L Saez
SHOW
5-1
10
Positive Review
E Gonzalez
WILD CARD
3-1
8
Hidden Plan
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1
5-2
14
Stay Restless
L Saez
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Master of Arms
J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/10/11 BOX, 8/10/11 BOX
RACE #5 $150,000 STAKES
1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 THE VERY ONE STAKES G3
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
8
Beautiful Lover
J Rosario
PLACE
2-1
5
Virginia Joy
I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW
9-2
9
Sorrel
J L Ortiz
WILD CARD
7-2
2
Harajuku
J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
7
Family Way
T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
6
Mezcal
L Saez
* EXACTA: 2,5,8,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 5,8,9/2,5,8,9/2,5,7,8,9
COMMENTS: BEAUTIFUL LOVER should be at/near peak fitness in her third start after a layoff. VIRGINIA JOY ran the top, last race speed figure. SORREL just missed first the top choice in their last. HARAJUKU topped our top choice on New Years Eve, has been off since with some OK works.
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 DAVONA DALE STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-1
4
Outfoxed
T Gaffalione
PLACE
3-1
3
Girl With a Dream
L Saez
SHOW
9-2
1
Kathleen O.
J Castellano
WILD CARD
7-2
2
Classy Edition
I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
5
Sweet Dani Girl
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2
5-1
6
Cocktail Moments
C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 1,2,3,4 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5
COMMENTS: OUTFOXED won three straight and is undefeated in two at Gulfstream. GIRL WITH A DREAM tied for the top, last race speed figure in her third straight win. KATHLEEN O. is undefeated in two and the second start was a blowout win. CLASSY EDITION is undefeated in three and comes in from New York.
RACE #7 $125,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 PALM BEACH STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
6
Royal Spirit
I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE
5-1
4
Main Event
J L Ortiz
SHOW
4-1
9
Red Danger
J R Leparoux
WILD CARD
3-1
2
Coinage
L Saez
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Credibility
E Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
8
Moms Moon
E Jaramillo
* EXACTA: 2,4,6,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 4,6,9/2,4,6,9/1,2,4,6,9
COMMENTS: ROYAL SPIRIT tied for the top, last race speed figure and could be better in the third start after a layoff. MAIN EVENT won her last, which was her first on grass with the third consecutive speed number increase. RED DANGER is all or nothing on turf with three wins and nothing else in five efforts. COINAGE missed as the publics choice, trainer Mark Casse rebounds at 24% with beaten favorites.
RACE #8 $62,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 STAGE RAIDER
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
7
Stage Raider
J L Ortiz
PLACE
3-1
1
Liam
L Saez
SHOW
8-1
4
Prevalence
T Gaffalione
WILD CARD
5-1
10
Soup and Sandwich
R M Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
2
Capocostello
J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2
9-2
3
Chocolate Bar
J Castellano
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX
RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 HONEY FOX STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
3
Jouster
L Saez
PLACE
7-2
7
Alms
J Rosario
SHOW
4-1
6
Gift List
J R Leparoux
WILD CARD
5-1
5
Bipartisanship
P Lopez
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
8
Wakanaka
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
9
In Italian
I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 3,5,6,7 Box
* TRIFECTA: 3,6,7/3,5,6,7/3,5,6,7,8
COMMENTS: JOUSTER is undefeated in two at Gulfstream, just one win in six elsewhere. ALMS ran some much better fractions last out. GIFT LIST finished in the money in seven on eight on turf. BIPARTISANSHIP should be charging late and does better the faster the early pace.
RACE #10 $200,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200K WINSTAR GULFSTREAM PARK MILE STAKES G2
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
3
Speakers Corner
J Alvarado
PLACE
3-1
4
Fearless
L Saez
SHOW
9-2
6
Ny Traffic
I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD
6-1
7
Endorsed
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
8
Collaborate
T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
9
Diamond Oops
R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 3,4,6,7 Box
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,6/3,4,6,7/3,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: SPEAKERS CORNER ran the highest, last race speed figure in his first Gulfstream race. FEARLESS has four wins and two seconds in six at Gulfstream. NY TRAFFIC won his last by 8 3/4 lengths back in October, some good works suggest a solid fresh run. ENDORSED should be better in his second start off the bench.
RACE #11 $200,000 STAKES
1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 MAC DIARMIDA STAKES G2
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
1
Abaan
L Saez
PLACE
6-1
10
Shamrocket
J Castellano
SHOW
9-2
8
Temple
J L Ortiz
WILD CARD
15-1
7
Fantasioso
B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
5
Lure Him In
J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
9
Media Blitz
J Rosario
* EXACTA: 1,7,8,10 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,8,10/1,7,8,10/1,5,7,8,10
COMMENTS: ABAAN is 1 and 1/2 lengths from winning six in a row. SHAMROCKET never missed the board in six at Gulfstream Park. TEMPLE is another that likes south Florida, in the money in 11 of 13. FANTASIOSO ran the top, last race speed figure but could be in for a bounce.
RACE #12 $400,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:42 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $400,000 FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES G2
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
8
Emmanuel
L Saez
PLACE
5-2
2
Simplification
J L Ortiz
SHOW
15-1
7
A. P.s Secret
T Gaffalione
WILD CARD
6-1
4
In Due Time
P Lopez
ALTERNATE 1
15-1
5
Dean Delivers
M A Vasquez
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
1
Markhamian
M Meneses
* EXACTA: 2,4,7,8 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,7,8/2,4,7,8/2,4,5,7,8
COMMENTS: EMMANUEL is undefeated in two, neither was close and has two bullets since his last race. SIMPLIFICATION gets a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz whos been on fire in Florida. APs SECRET improved from race to race in his first three and has some strong works getting ready. IN DUE TIME won his last by 5 3/4 lengths and should be at/near peak form in his third start off the bench.
RACE #13 $125,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:12 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 HERECOMESTHEBRIDE STAKES G3
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
12
Lia Marina
J Rosario
PLACE
6-1
4
Spendarella
J L Ortiz
SHOW
7-2
8
Opalina
L Saez
WILD CARD
4-1
5
Beside Herself
I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
3
Diamond Wow
R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
1
Last Leaf
M A Vasquez
* EXACTA: 4,5,8,12 Box
* TRIFECTA: 4,8,12/4,5,8,12/3,4,5,8,12
COMMENTS: LIA MARINA improved from race to race in her first three starts, expecting another step up here. SPENDARELLA won her debut close to the front all the way around the track, which is the track bias on Gulfstream grass. OPALINA should be charging late and will likely be better in her third race after a layoff. BESIDES HERSELF appears to be versatile enough to win from the front or back.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 01:53 PM
Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - March 5FAIR GROUNDS TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
7
Fluffpoint
E Nieves
PLACE
5-2
5
Tripper John
J Riquelme
SHOW
6-1
6
Tool Box
O Mojica
WILD CARD
5-1
2
Into Wishing
M Murrill
ALTERNATE 1
7-2
3
Totally Addicted
C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2
9-2
1
Stealing Apriority
C L Marquez
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $46,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
4
Helaire
R Gutierrez
PLACE
9-2
2
Perrins
C J Hernandez
SHOW
7-2
8
Charlie G
P L Cotto Jr.
WILD CARD
6-1
1
Mo Credo
J P Vargas
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
7
Northernreflection
J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
5
More Harder
D L Parker
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX
RACE #3 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 COURTHOUSE COVE
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
5
Courthouse Cove
E Nieves
PLACE
6-1
1
Ferocity
O Mojica
SHOW
3-1
3
Golden Passage
M Murrill
WILD CARD
3-1
4
Runandhide Wind
R Diaz
ALTERNATE 1
9-2
6
Speedy G
A Suarez
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
2
Golden Pegasus
J Graham
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #4 $60,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 NET A BEAR
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-5
6
Net a Bear
C J Hernandez
PLACE
7-2
2
Offspring
J Loveberry
SHOW
9-2
1
Winning Romance
D L Parker
WILD CARD
5-2
5
Fort Polk
J Guzman
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
4
Blessed Anna
J Graham
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
3
Tecate Time
M Murrill
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #5 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
6
Abuelas Humor
J Graham
PLACE
7-2
3
Dial Ten for G
R Gutierrez
SHOW
5-1
1
Surrey
E Nieves
WILD CARD
7-2
5
Freeze the Day
C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
1A
Burning Desire
J Gilligan
ALTERNATE 2
9-2
4
Wow Me Fast
D L Parker
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $75,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 DOWAGIAC CHIEF
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
7
Dowagiac Chief
J Graham
PLACE
7-2
2
Tommy Bee
C J Hernandez
SHOW
5-1
5
Iberville
R Gutierrez
WILD CARD
8-1
1
Holy City
J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
6
Silent Tap
J Riquelme
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
3
Russian Tank
J L Vega
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #7 $53,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
3
Runninginthemoney
A Suarez
PLACE
4-1
5
Bind Faith
E Nieves
SHOW
3-1
6
Tambourine Star
D L Parker
WILD CARD
6-1
2
Cosmic Train
J Graham
ALTERNATE 1
9-2
4
Eddies Humor
J Riquelme
ALTERNATE 2
4-1
7
Big Chopper
A Green
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #8 $60,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-5
6
Who Took the Money
D L Parker
PLACE
8-1
5
Treys Midnite Moon
J Graham
SHOW
9-2
7
Mangelsen
J Loveberry
WILD CARD
15-1
1
Ballinonabudjet
C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
2
Behemah Star
R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
10
City Park
P L Cotto Jr.
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #9 $5,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-5
6
Point of Victory
P L Cotto Jr.
PLACE
6-1
7
Tuffology
O Mojica
SHOW
8-1
5
For Real Alice
M Murrill
WILD CARD
8-1
4
Gilded Apple
A Green
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
8
Custom for Carlita
R Diaz
ALTERNATE 2
9-2
3
New Years Party
E Nieves
* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 01:54 PM
Aqueduct Tip Sheet - March 5AQUEDUCT TIPS - SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $80,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 SINFUL DANCER
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
2-1
1
Sinful Dancer
E Cancel
PLACE
8-5
7
Disco Pharoah
D Davis
SHOW
9-2
6
Als Prince
K Carmouche
WILD CARD
8-1
5
Scherzando
J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
4
Everesting
J L Samuel
ALTERNATE 2
30-1
3
Vinny Two Cents
J A Davis
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #2 $80,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
1-1
4
Long Term
K Carmouche
PLACE
6-1
5
Improper
D Davis
SHOW
6-1
3
Cathedral Beach
T McCarthy
WILD CARD
5-2
2
Don the Jeweler
M Franco
ALTERNATE 1
30-1
1
Joe Brrrr
O Hernandez Moreno
ALTERNATE 2
5-1
6
Electability
E Cancel
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #3 $200,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:52 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 TOM FOOL HANDICAP
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-5
5
Chateau
K Carmouche
PLACE
4-1
1
Repo Rocks
R Silvera
SHOW
3-1
3
Officiating
M Franco
WILD CARD
5-1
4
Prime Factor
J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
2
Timeless Bounty
T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 1,5/ALL
* TRIFECTA: 5/1,3/ALL
COMMENTS: CHATEAU finished in the money in 11 of 12 at Aqueduct with six wins. REPO ROCKS improved his late pace numbers nicely in his last. OFFICIATINGs resume says he will be better in the second start off the bench. PRIME FACTOR drew away from the field in his last at Fair Grounds, a big effort is usually followed by another.
RACE #4 $16,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:23 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
9
Breaking Stones
D Davis
PLACE
6-1
2
Brunate
T McCarthy
SHOW
2-1
1
Victory Built
R Silvera
WILD CARD
5-1
3
Mattys Marauder
J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
7
Forgotten Mission
A Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
6
Run Casper Run
J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:52 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 STATE PLANNING
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
6
State Planning
T McCarthy
PLACE
3-1
5
Sensibleconclusion
J A Gomez
SHOW
7-2
1
Moped Dennis
J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD
3-1
3
Chapel Road
M Franco
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
4
Double Maker
K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
2
Kong Loves a Fight
J L Samuel
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:23 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 HOT ROD RUMBLE
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
2-1
5
Hot Rod Rumble
T McCarthy
PLACE
5-2
3
Beach Boy Al
K Carmouche
SHOW
7-2
1
Safalows Mission
E Cancel
WILD CARD
30-1
7
Acalteque
J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
2
Limit Up
D Davis
ALTERNATE 2
5-1
6
Uragano
J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #7 $20,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
2
Direct Order
M Franco
PLACE
5-2
1
Glory Road
D Davis
SHOW
7-2
8
Kumar
J Lezcano
WILD CARD
15-1
7
Joycee Haz Pizzaz
L Cardenas
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
6
F F Rocket
K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2
7-2
5
Chris and Dave
E Cancel
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX
RACE #8 $82,000 ALLOWANCE
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:27 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
2-1
1A
Castle Chaos
M Franco
PLACE
5-2
6
Trash Talker
K Carmouche
SHOW
5-1
5
Bustin Shout
T McCarthy
WILD CARD
9-2
7
American Gentleman
J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
2
Fitzpatrick
D Davis
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Kazs Beach
W P Otero
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #9 $250,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:57 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $250,000 BUSHER INVITATIONAL STAKES
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-5
6
Radio Days
D Davis
PLACE
6-1
2
Sterling Silver
T McCarthy
SHOW
3-1
5
Magic Circle
K Carmouche
WILD CARD
12-1
1
Shotgun Hottie
E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1
7-2
4
Venti Valentine
M Franco
ALTERNATE 2
5-1
3
Morning Matcha
F Pennington
* EXACTA: 1,2,5,6 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,5,6/1,2,5,6/1,2,4,5,6
COMMENTS: RADIO DAYS won her lone trip at Aqueduct by 8 1/2 lengths. STERLING SILVER is undefeated in two and improved significantly from race to race. MAGIC CIRCLE has speed and jockey Kendrick Carmouche, usually a good combination. SHOTGUN HOTTIE showed some improvement in the middle and late parts of her last effort.
RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:27 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 GOTHAM STAKES G3
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
9
Morello
J Lezcano
PLACE
6-1
4
Fromanothamutha
D Davis
SHOW
7-2
5
Deans List
M Franco
WILD CARD
12-1
3
Golden Code
K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
10
Rockefeller
T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Bold Journey
J A Vargas Jr.
* EXACTA: 3,4,5,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 4,5,9/3,4,5,9/3,4,5,9,10
COMMENTS: MORELLO is undefeated in two and neither was close. FROMANOTHAMUTHA ran the top, last race speed figure and has four good works since. DEANS LIST is also undefeated in two at Gulfstream. GOLDEN CODE won his last by 10 lengths, expecting another big effort.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 01:55 PM
Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlists - March 5, 2022 March 4, 2022
The Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist
March 5, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
The $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Gulfstream Park, Race 12
12th race – (9) High Oak won his first two starts impressively then disappointed in the Hopeful. Was given time off after that and is training for his 3-year-old debut in a manner that indicates he could be ready for a big effort. (8) Emmanuel tries stakes company for the first time and has the kind of speed and stamina that works out well over this surface. (2) Simplification rallied for second in the Holy Bull and cannot be ignored here. (4) In Due Time comes off a big allowance win and seems ready to step up into stakes competition. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta and trifecta box: 2-4-8-9.
The $125,000 John Battaglia Memorial, Turfway Park, Race 5
5th race – (11) Bloodline is coming off a game second in his turf debut. If he makes a smooth transition to a synthetic track, he will be a highly attractive option in this race. (10) Tiz the Bomb fizzled on dirt in the Holy Bull, but, based on his results on turf, should perk up here. (8) Erase is coming off a frontrunning stakes win at the meet and looks like the one they will have to catch. (4) Stolen Base has a nice late kick and should be a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta and trifecta box: 4-8-10-11.
The $300,000 Gotham (G3), Aqueduct, Race 9
9th race - The Gotham is a [50-20-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby. (9) Morello won the first two races of his career, both at Aqueduct and both by open-lengths. The Steve Asmussen runner moved from six to seven furlongs in those victories and has been based in New York all winter long. He looks to get an ideal set-up for his late running style with lots of speed horses in the 10 horse field. (5) Dean’s List is the best of the front running horses in the field. This Todd Pletcher runner is also 2 for 2 in his career with a pair of fast sprint victories in Florida. Pletcher will find out in the one-turn mile of the Gotham just how far Dean’s List can carry his speed. (2) Glider will ship north from Florida and bring a jockey with him. This Mark Casse trainee broke his maiden in a race that came off the turf and then finished second behind the highly regarded Emmanuel who may be the favorite in the Fountain of Youth. He also has a chance to come running late. (1) Runninsonofagun is a live longshot with a late running style that could sneak into the exotics. He was claimed from his first two starts and then won a starter allowance for veteran trainer John Toscano. Betting strategy: Exacta box: 1, 2, 5, 9. Trifecta box: 1, 2, 5, 9.
The $400,000 San Felipe (G2), Santa Anita Park, Race 6
6th race - The San Felipe is also a [50-20-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby. (7) Cabo Spirit was far behind Messier in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) last month, but he was also seven lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Before that he had four starts on the turf that included a maiden and a stakes win. (6) Forbidden Kingdom made his first start of the year in the San Vicente (G2) where he was a winner on the lead by more than two lengths going seven furlongs. He will have to stretch out to two-turns for the first time for trainer Richard Mandella. (5) Doppelganger was a debut winner for Bob Baffert at Los Alamitos in December. He then finished fourth in the San Vicente. He, too, will run a distance of ground for the first time. (3) Armagnac is another Baffert runner. He broke his maiden in his second start going two-turns at Santa Anita while racing on the lead. Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 7 with 3, 5, 6.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 01:56 PM
Aqueduct Hotlist - March 5 March 4, 2022
Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, March 5, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race [Md Sp Wt, 6 ½ F] – (5) Scherzando (C) was bet down from 8-1 to 6-1 when he finished third at this level. (7) Disco Pharoah has been off since December when he ran second at Turfway Park in a race where the third-place finisher came back to win. (6) Al’s Prince was moved from the barn of Charlie Baker to Todd Pletcher and will make his first start for the new trainer as a new gelding. He ran well in his first three starts and now cuts back to sprinting. (1) Sinful Dancer returns from a June layoff when he raced against NY-breds four times with a second in a Stallions Series stake.
2nd race [Md Sp Wt, 1mi] – (2) Don the Jeweler will make his debut for Chad Brown. He was an $875,000 yearling purchase who ships up to New York after training in Florida. Brown has a 44% win rate at the current Aqueduct meeting. (4) Long Term has three second-place finishes in his three starts which were all at Aqueduct for Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole. (3) Cathedral Beach takes the blinkers off and get first-time Lasix after two starts on wet tracks at the Big A. (6) Electability made one start back in August for Chad Brown on the turf going long. He was away from the races since then and comes back as a new gelding and with Lasix.
3rd [Tom Fool (G3), 6F] – (5) Chateau was the winner of the Tom Fool last year with a fast front running effort. He was last seen winning the Gravesend at the Big A in December with the same kind of performance. Trainer Rob Atras is good with fresh horses. (3) Officiating ships up from Florida following a third in the Hooper (G3) at Gulfstream Park going a mile against a very strong field. In his prior start he won the seven-furlong Mr. Prospector (G3) with a stalking trip. (1) Repo Rocks was second in a pair of sprint stakes, one at Parx and then in the Toboggan (G3) at Aqueduct. (4) Prime Factor ships up to New York from Fair Grounds where he won an allowance in his first start for trainer Cherie DeVaux, a former assistant for Chad Brown.
9th race – The Busher is a [50-20-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. (6) Radio Days ships up from Shug McGaughey’s Florida base at Payson Park to stretch out to a mile. She won her first two starts in New York convincingly including an allowance at Aqueduct in December. She was second in the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G3) at Gulfstream with a late rally. (5) Magic Circle has never run a bad race in her career. She won the Busanda at Aqueduct last time with a front-end effort going nine-furlongs. She was third in the Demoiselle (G2) before that. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez goes for his third victory in the Busher. (4) Venti Valentine won her first two starts against NY-breds and then missed winning the Demoiselle at the Big A by a neck behind a talented filly in Nest. (3) Morning Matcha was second in her two starts at Aqueduct shipping up from Parx. She used a late rally in a NY Stallion Series stake and then the Busanda to get those place finishes.
Best bets: Chateau (3rd); Radio Days (9th). Best value: Scherzando (1st); Don the Jeweler (2nd).
Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 1 – 3 and ends with the Tom Fool (G3) Ã* 5, 6, 7 with 2, 4 with 3, 5 = $16.
[B]No.
Name
Letter
last race
Today's Race
Comments
(5)
Scherzando
C on 2/4
1
He was third behind a return winner in a similar spot.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 01:57 PM
Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 5, 2022 March 4, 2022
Race 9 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday March 5 | Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern
Honey Fox Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies & Mares, Four Years Old and Upward
Top contenders:
Gift List (6) gets the slightest edge in this very deep field, as she’s one of four horses coming out of the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational Stakes run five weeks ago (January 29) on the Gulfstream Park turf. The reason for the slight preference is Gift List is making her second start back following nearly seven months away from the races and is potentially likely to improve more than the others coming out that race. After a fine record of 2-3-0 in Europe as a two year old in 2020, Gift List imported to the U.S. last April and finished second in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes, next winning the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes powerfully by four lengths just 27 days later. After a third place finish in the Grade 3 Wonder Again Stakes she was rested and since that last race put in a very strong half-mile workout signaling she’s ready to run back to her Edgewood win. Additionally, she is not a need-the-lead type by any means and in this race there are up to seven “early” pace types or pressers so she could be rolling past some tired horses late.
Alms (7) beat Gift List in the Pegasus when second, after leading from the start and for the first six furlongs. Although no match for winner Regal Glory, Alms was very game in holding off the third horse by a neck at the finish. She also does not need the lead to win as proven in her career debut win when rallying from fourth under Rosario, who rides today. Alms has something in common with Gift List although they have never faced each other, as she missed winning the 2020 Appalachian Stakes (the same race Gift List finished second in last year) by a nose and a head. Off from July of that year until this past October, Alms has finished second twice and may be sitting on her best effort yet as she can also be passing a lot of tired horses in the late stages.
Bipartisanship (5) has just a two-for-nine career mark, with all nine on turf. She will absolutely be a long shot based on that record but she should run better than her high odds suggest. After four races in Ireland, Bipartisanship imported to the U.S. to run last September and finished third before winning a turf route. After a poor seventh place finish she posted the 19 to 1 upset when Lopez rode her for the first time in late December, on this course, in the $100K Tropical Park Oaks. She broke slowly in the Pegasus and didn’t do much when finishing fifth of 10 but a repeat of her effort just before that in the Oaks would be good for a share and potentially a very nice profit if she goes off at double digit odds as I expect she will be.
Wakanaka (8) and Sugar Fix (2) will be added to the second position on exacta tickets. Wakanaka was making her U.S. debut when sixth in the Pegasus and won a Group 3 stakes race in Italy 11 months ago so could improve, while Sugar Fix loves to win (10 for 21 on turf) and although never competitive in a graded stakes can’t be ruled out for a piece as she’s also been second four times on grass.
Note about the pace of this race: Jouster (3), Quinoa Tifah (4), In Italian (9), Katama Moonlight (10) and Navratilova (11) may all be need-the-lead types or will be forced to use speed to get position, particularly the outside three horses. That’s why, no matter how good they look on paper overall, their chances of winning appear to be compromised.
Win bets:
Gift List (6) and Alms (7) can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Bipartisanship (5) can be bet to win at odds of 7 to 1 or higher.
Strategy: Bet either Gift List or Alms, whichever is higher odds near post time, provided odds are 5 to 2 or higher. If both Gift List and Alms are 5 to 1 odds or higher near post time, you can bet them both.
Consider a smaller win bet on Bipartisanship if 7 to 1 or higher odds near post time. Even if only for a token amount like $5, this bet should be made as the filly is likely to go to post at high odds.
Exactas:
Gift List (6) and Alms (7) over Gift List (6), Alms (7), Sugar Fix (2), Bipartisanship (5) and Wakanaka (8).
Bipartisanship (5), Gift List (6) and Alms (7) over Gift List (6), Alms (7), Sugar Fix (2), Bipartisanship (5) and Wakanaka (8)
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 01:58 PM
Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 5 March 4, 2022
Today’s Gulfstream Park Hot List races to watch
Saturday, March 5, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
6th race – (3) Girl With a Dream (A) has posted stakes wins at six and then seven furlongs. Should be able to handle the stretchout to a mile and collect a fourth straight win. (2) Classy Edition has been dominant against New York-breds. Gets tested for class here. (5) Sweet Dani Girl has been training sharply for her 3-year-old debut. (1) Kathleen O. will be a serious factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3. Exactas: 2-3 over 1-5 and 1-5 over 2-3. Doubles: 1-2-3-5 with 2-4-6-9.
7th race – (6) Royal Spirit pressed the pace and then lost by a neck at the wire. Can make amends for that setback here. (4) Main Event looked good in his turf debut and merits consideration here. (2) Coinage was third behind the top pick and belongs in the exotics. (9) Red Danger will benefit from a fast pace. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-9.
9th race – (3) Jouster has plenty of speed. She hasn’t raced since July but Pletcher excels off the layoff and she may be fresh enough to lead gate-to-wire. (5) Bipartisanship got off to a slow start in the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf and never threatened. Should get a better trip here. (7) Alms was a game second in the Pegasus FMT and should not be overlooked. (6) Gift List may be closing nicely in the stretch. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-6-7. Doubles: 3-5-6-7 with 3-4-6-7. Pick 3: 3-5-6-7 with 3-4-6-7 with 1-2-3-8.
10th race – (3) Speaker’s Corner (A) comes off an impressive victory over the track and can make it two in a row here. (4) Fearless was second to the top choice and should be the main rival once again. (6) Ny Traffic has been absent since October but has enough back class to be a main contender. (7) Endorsed usually brings home a check and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-6-7. Doubles: 3-4-6-7 with 1-2-3-8.
11th race – (1) Abaan is in career-best form and will be tough to catch from the rail. (3) Glynn County may have needed a race last time and could take a step forward here. (8) Temple was second to Abaan and will be major factor today. (2) Kygo should welcome the added distance. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-8.
No.
Letter/Last race
Today’s race
Comment
(3)
Girl With a Dream
A, 2/5
6 GP
Chases a fourth straight win
(3)
Speaker’s Corner
A, 1/29
10 GP
Won impressively last time
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 02:24 PM
Free Winners for Saturday, March 5th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
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RACE #7
TIME: 5:05 PM EST
PICK: BET #7 Big Chopper 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada (https://www.nsawins.com/go/bovada-racebook/)
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 02:24 PM
Free Winners for Saturday, March 5th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
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Spurs @ Hornets
TIME: 7:00 PM EST
PICK: Bet UNDER 241.5 @ BOVADA (https://record.revenuenetwork.com/_d5unAk642Gc9h5cKgei5VmNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:35 PM
Kenny Walker Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Cal-Irvine vs CS Bakersfield
Play on: Cal-Irvine -5 -110 at BetCris
Free Pick on Cal-Irvine
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:35 PM
Timothy Black Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Oregon vs Washington State
Play on: Washington State -1½ -110 at Caesars
1* Best Bet on Washington State -1½ -110
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:36 PM
Steve Janus Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Texas vs Kansas
Play on: OVER 137½ -110
1* Free Sharp Play on Texas vs Kansas over 137½ -110
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:36 PM
Larry Ness Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | Texas vs Kansas
Play on: Kansas -6½ -110 at Caesars
My free play is on Kansas at 4:00 ET.
When Texas fired Shaka Smart after six unfulfilling seasons, Chris Beard 'jumped ship' and left Lubbock and its beloved fan base last April to take over the Texas program. The Longhorns opened 5th in the AP's preseason poll and are headed to Lawrence for its regular season finale ranked 21st at 21-9 (10-7 in the Big 12). Bill Self's Jayhawks finished 21-9 last season, including a loss in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. That was not what was expected of a team ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Kansas began the current season ranked No. 3 and is ranked 6th, as the Jayhawks welcome Texas to Allen Fieldhouse. Kansa is 24-8 and its 13-4 Big 12 record places them in a tie for first place with No. 3 Baylor.
Beard brought in seven transfers with NCAA Division I experience. 6-6 Timmy Allen was named All-Pac 12 at Utah last season (17.2 & 6.4) and leads Texas in scoring (12.3) and rebounding (6.5) but his scoring is down 5 PPG. The same goes for PG Carr (19.6 & 4.9 APG last year with Minnesota), who is averaging a more modest 11.2 PPG and 3.2 APG. Guards Jones (10.9) and Ramey (9.0) join Carr in the backcourt, while 6-9 center Mitchell (8.7 & 4.0) and 6-7 forward Bishop (6.8 & 5.5) join Allen up front. Defense is the team's 'calling card,' as Beard's team ranks 8th in the nation in allowing 59.1 PPG.
Kansas guards Agbaji (20.2 & 5.2) and Braun (15.0 & 6.0) make a potent duo but Remy Martin (19.1 PPG last season), an Arizona State transfer who was named the preseason player of the year in the Big 12, has been a HUGE disappointment. He's averaging just 7.4 PPG and has never gained Self's complete trust in running the offense. Harris (5.5 & 4.0 APG) has gotten extra time with Remy struggling both on the court and with some injuries. The 6-7 Wilson (10.6 & 7.1) and the 6-10 McCormack (9.7 & 7.1) round out the starting lineup. Kansas is an excellent offensive team, averaging 78.9 PPG (26th) on 48.6% shooting (15th).
Kansas will be playing with revenge from a 79-76 loss at Texas back on Feb 7 and no Big 12 program knows better than Kansas what it's like to take the floor with a conference title on the line. The Jayhawks and Bears are each 13-4 and a "W" would give Kansas at least a share of the Big 12 title (Baylor hosts Iowa St). Let me point out that while Kansas lost at Texas, it also scored 76 points, which is 17 points MORE than Texas has allowed on average this season (see above). With so much on the line (and with that revenge motive), I'm laying the points with Texas.
Good luck...Larry
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:36 PM
Dave Price Mar 05 '22, 4:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-B | VCU vs St. Louis
Play on: VCU +2½ -110 at Mirage
Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on VCU +2.5
The Key: VCU has won 8 straight and 11 of its last 12 to nearly punch its ticket into the NCAA Tournament. A road win over St. Louis here would go a long way. The Rams have upset road wins over Davidson, Richmond and George Mason during this stretch. They can go into St. Louis and win as they face a Billikens team that is just 3-4 SU in their last 7 games overall with their wins coming against La Salle, St. Joseph's and Rhode Island. They have lost every time they have stepped up in competition with two losses to St. Bonaventure, a 21-point loss to Davidson and a loss to Richmond. VCU is 8-1 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year. The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups. Take VCU.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:36 PM
Rob Vinciletti Mar 05 '22, 4:30 PM in 54m
NCAA-B | New Orleans vs Nicholls State
Play on: Nicholls State -8 -110 at BetCris
Saturday card led By our Last Home Game Play Of The Year 5-1 Last 6 years an Executive Level TIER 1 and our Conference Tournament Plays. We also have Perfect System Plays in NBA and NHL and Afternoon Soccer. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Nicholls St at 4:30 eastern. The Colonels are first in the South land Conference and have 12 point road loss revenge on New Orleans here today. The last 2 here on their home court against the Privateers were both Blowout wins by 20= points. They are ranked 23rd in the nation scoring and have put up 80 or more in each of their last 3 home games. New Orleans has lost 18 of 19 as a road dog and had to rally from 10 down at the half to win their last home game. With the winning team 8-1 in the series. We will back Nicholls St to serve up revenge. On Saturday a huge card is up and we have Our Last Home Game Play of the Year which has hit 5 of the last 6 seasons, along with an Executive Level Tier 1 and our Conference Tournament System plays. We also have early Soccer and Perfect database systems in the NBA and NHL. Jump on and cash out. For the NCAAB Comp Play. Go with Nicholls St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:37 PM
Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 3/15/22
March 4, 2022
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 8-Gold Phoenix; 10-See Through It; 4-Cane Creek Road; 12-Southern Horse
Forecast: We’ll begin the 11-race program with an inscrutable downhill slalom event for entry-level allowance turf sprinters that attracted a full gate load of 12 runners, at least half of which have a reasonable chance depending upon trips and race flow. Morning line favorite (5/2) Gold Phoenix (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) ran well in his U.S. debut in a similar affair over the flat course in mid-January, closing well to be second in what was just his second career start, and a repeat of that race makes him the one to beat. However, a somewhat lethargic recent training track drill puts his current condition into question, so we’ll use him in rolling exotic play even though we’re not quite sure what we’ll be getting. See Through It (TOC=7/2; ML=5-1) has hit the board in his last five starts, so he’s likely to be in the fray once again, though his habit of weakening under pressure in the final stages after pressing the pace is somewhat concerning. He appears most comfortable when held up early and allowed to produce a late kick and given that strategy the B. Koriner-trained gelding might punch it in more effectively. Cane Creek Road (TOC=15-1; ML=8-1) has the route-to-sprint angle that always has been quite effective when handicapping the Hillside Turf Course. The analytics aren’t favorable, and yes, he’s a little light in the speed figure department, but we’re of the opinion that he could improve a bunch with the turn back in trip. Southern Horse (TOC=9-1; ML=12-1 is a deep-closing sprinter coming off a solid runner-up effort in a $40,000 claimer over the flat course. He’ll need some help up front and room to rally through the lane to have any kind of chance but if things break his way the Argentine veteran should at least outrun his 12-1 morning line. These are the four we’ll be including in rolling exotic play but best suggestion is to spread as deeply as your budget allows.
__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 2: Post: 12:28 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Taiba; 5-Mauritius; 6-Temth Street Don
Forecast: Trainer B. Baffert has a couple of hot first-timers in this contentious six furlong sprint for sophomores, including the $1.7 million Fasig-Tipton 2021 March 2-year-old in training purchase Taiba, a Gun Runner colt who has done everything right in the morning and is clearly highly-regarded and the likely short-priced favorite at 8/5 on the morning line. His stable mate, Mauritious (morning line 5/2), may be pretty good as well, having displayed plenty of talent in his morning breezes and is worth including in the rolling exotics as well. Also deserving of some consideration is Tenth Street Don, listed at 8-1 on the morning line. The V. Cerin-trained colt by Practical Joke brought $240,000 at the 2021 OBS April Sale and has done some good work this winter without being asked for his best. The barn doesn’t have great stats with debut runners but this one should be used on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
Notable Workouts:
One More Bid (February 27, 5f, Santa Anita, :58.4hg). Grade: B
Broke better today than in his last gate work and left Pillow Candy (3f, :37.4hg) far behind while being ridden most of the way, splits of :23.4, :35.1, :47 flat and :59.2 on our watches, a few ticks slower than given time but sharp nonetheless, the galloped to the wire in 1:13.2, solid drill for un-raced maiden. Not particularly quick in the opening furlong but can turn it on midway and should be competitive first time out for Hanson.
View Workout Video
Overrule (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B-
This was a gate work (“g” left off the tab) in company with Take Action (5f, 1:01.2hg) for R. Mandella, mild urging with splits of :24 flat, :35.3, :47.2 and 1:00 flat. Previous works weren’t much but this was a step in the right direction. Mastery colt might be a down-the-road type.
View Workout Video
Pioneering Papa (February 26, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.3hg). Grade: B
Classic Empire gelding turned in a nice solo gate drill under mild urging only, splits of :23.2, :34.4 and :46.4 on our watches in a good display of speed, best drill of a series leading up to his debut. Has some run and should be reasonably competitive in a maiden sprint soon.
View Workout Video
Taiba (February 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59hg). Grade: B+
Smart gate drill for Baffert in company with McLaren Vale (same time) and Lil Light Hearted (4f, :47.4hg), splits of :23.4, :35.1, :46.4 and :59 flat while appearing slightly best and then coasted to the wire in 1:12.4. Gun Runner colt appears to be made of the right stuff, seems fit, and should be very live at frisking. ‘Vale was a debut winner early this meeting, further framing this gate work in a favorable context.
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Mauritius (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
In company outside Rockefeller (same time) and may have been a tad second best but worked strongly nonetheless, splits of :23.2, :35.2, 1:00.2 and 1:13 flat for a full six furlongs while traveling out to the seven-furlong pole for Baffert. Should be fit enough by now, clearly has ability and should be competitive right off the bat vs. maidens.
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Tenth Street Don (January 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h)
Saw him back in early January in a team drill with Street Ruckus (same time) and looked fairly decent for Cerin, splits of :24 flat and :49.2, never really asked, about two lengths clear at the finish after breaking off a similar margin in front. Practical Joke colt was a $240,000 OBS April sale purchase last year, has been given a good foundation and should make the entries soon. Might be an okay type.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 12:58 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Sadie Bluegrass; 5-Savvy Gal; 8-Storming Lady
Forecast: We’ll forego a win wager in the third race, a starter’s allowance turf sprint for $25,000 older fillies and mares while spreading three-deep in rolling exotic play. Win-machine Sadie Bluegrass (TOC=8/5; ML=4-1) (11-for-19 in her career) seems the logical top pick, though success established at Golden Gate Fields isn’t always repeated on this tougher Southern California circuit. That said, she’s a strong fit on speed figures based her two most recent victories at the starter’s $12,500 level and regular jockey B. Pena flies down to ride her, so at this abbreviated sprint distance the J. Wong-trained mare projects as a major player and a strong pace factor throughout. Savvy Gal (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) always does her best running when held up early and then let loose late, and she was up in time to win a similar five furlong event over the local lawn in late January. A similar effort today, especially if the early pace comes up contested, will make her quite dangerous right back. Storming Lady (TOC=7/2; ML=3-1) was fourth as the favorite in the same race that Savvy Gal just won but could bounce back today with an extra furlong to work with. She’s always been effective over the Santa Anita turf course (first or second in seven of 12 outings) and with three nice breezes since raced the J. Mullins-trained mare should be heard from late.
Notable Workouts:
Bristol Bayou (February 27, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B
Was well off the rail and breezing through the lane in solo half mile drill for Cerin, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.4. Always genuine and consistent, holds her form, might be most comfortable around one turn and her record suggests she much prefers dirt over turf.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 1:28 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 1-Brickyard Road; 3-Canadian Pride; 4-Cezanne
Forecast: Brickyard Road (TOC=4/5; ML=3-1) just wired the field in the Tiznow S. over a mile vs. state-bred foes two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly while moving into graded stakes company at this seven furlong trip in this year’s edition of the San Carlos S.-G2, a race he won easily last year. The veteran son of Clubhouse Ride has only one way to go from the rail – on the lead for as far as he can carry his speed – and if he can shake loose early (like last year) the C. Lewis-trained horse will be hard to catch once again. Canadian Pride (TOC=5-1; ML=5-1) earned a career top triple digit Beyer speed figure when winning an allowance race here last month and projects to enjoy a similar pace-stalking trip today. Relatively lightly-raced (three wins from 12 starts), the P. Eurton-trained gelding gets tested for class in is first ever appearance in stakes company but in his present form deserves a serious look. Cezanne (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) was a non-threatening third of five at 3/5 when clearly rusty off a layoff in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 in late January but can expected to step forward considerably with that tightener behind him. Two bullet workouts since raced are encouraging, but he still might be a race away from being where he was last year. Have to use him, though.
Notable Workouts:
Cezanne (February 27, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.3h). Grade: B
Ridden a bit through the lane to be even but slightly best outside Spielberg (same time) for Baffert, splits of :23.4, :35.2, :59.3 (to the wire) and 1:12.3 (to seven furlong pole), solid work, better than what we’ve seen of him lately. Might be coming around and getting fit, was far below his best form when last of three in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 in his comeback in late January.
View Workout Video
Eight Rings (February 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.3h). Grade: B+
Never really asked in quick half mile solo drill, splits of :11.3, :22.3 and :46.3 while sharpening his speed after a series of two-turn races. Might appreciate a turn back in trip. Maintains his edge.
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Shooters Shoot (February 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, mildly coaxed late, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.1 for Baltas. Maintains his form after narrowly missing in the Pals Verdes S. last time out.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 1:58 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Leggs Galore; 10-Going to Vegas
Forecast: Leggs Galore (TOC=6/5; ML=7/2) returned to winning form in her first outing since August with an authoritative gate-to-wire score down the Hillside Course in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint in mid-January in a fast, highly-rated affair that indicates she’s as good now as ever. A winner of five races from seven starts over the local lawn, the daughter of Bayern has won at this mile distance, but that victory was not against this level of competition, so while she’s easily the controlling speed and will take this field a very long way, that final sixteenth of a mile will be stretching her limit. Going to Vegas (TOC=9/2; ML=3-1), herself a Santa Anita grass specialist (first or second in eight of 11 career starts), was out of her element in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last November but has trained well enough to be fit and ready for her first start since, and as a Grade-1 winner over the Arcadia grass she is clearly good enough to win with her best race. We’re expecting the daughter of Goldencents to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Leggs Galore – based on recency and the projected race shape – given the slight nod on top.
Notable Workouts:
Keeper of Time (February 25, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:00.2b TC). Grade: B
In a team drill on turf (no dogs), trailing Sunstrike (5f, 1:00.4h TC) and Vantarsi (5f, 1:01.2h TC) to the head of the lane before angling 3-wide and finishing slightly behind Sunstrike (hard held) at the wire, never really asked, final half mile in :24.1 and :47.4 on our watches. Likes to lag and then blast home, arrives following a clever overnight handicap winner at Gulfstream Park.
View Workout Video
Leggs Galore (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B- In blinkers, broke off a few lengths behind Gregory’s Pride (5f, 1:00.2h TT) and closed a gap through the lane but couldn’t catch the winner despite being urged a bit in the final furlong (workmate always breezing), splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.1. Certainly doesn’t want to be rated in the afternoon, prefers to be let roll from the gate.
View Workout Video
Going to Vegas (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B+
Training track drill In company outside Granola Girl (same time) for P. D’Amato and was always going the better of the two, hard held and extremely keen early and then a half in front at the wire while never really being asked, splits of :24 flat and 1:00 flat, steady and even while appearing very sharp following a vacation. Tough on the front end but can be comfortable stalking and pouncing as well. Ready to fire a big shot.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Forbidden Kingdom
Forecast: Forbidden Kingdom (TOC=8/5; ML=8/5) stretches out to a middle distance for the first time in this year’s San Felipe S.-G2 for 3-year-olds, and if he’s ever going to get the trip, it most likely will be in his first try. The son of American Pharoah was dominant in his gate-to-wire victory in the seven furlong San Vicente S.-G2 last time out and was flattered when runner-up Pinehurst returned to win the Saudi Derby-G3 overseas last week. He’ll easily be the controlling speed if his connections permit him to be – hopefully they will allow him to use his best weapon - and given the lack of effective closers among the five other runners we’re expecting the R. Mandella-trained colt to roll all the way to the wire. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go shorter, he won’t be offering a lot of value other than as a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Armagnac (February 25, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.2h). Grade: B
Head-and-head throughout inside Doppelganger (same time) while traveling out to the seven furlong pole, slightly best to the wire but slightly second best late while under strong pressure in the final furlong, splits of :23.3, :35.2, 1:00.1 and 1:12.4 on our watches. Decent work for both but neither looked all that great late. We’ll find out what each is made of in the San Felipe S.
View Workout Video
Doppelganger (February 25, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.2h). Grade: B
See Armagnac, above.
View Workout Video
Forbidden Kingdom (February 24, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:25h). Grade: B
Broke off about six lengths behind Micro Share (7f, 1:26h), engaged workmate on the turn, put his head in front in the upper stretch but then appeared to lose some of his steam late and was second best to the breezing ‘Share at the wire and also continuing out to the seven furlong pole under some coaxing, splits of :23.3, :35.2, :47.1, 1:11.4 and 1:25 flat on our watches, excellent final time but not quite what we were hoping to see. Probably wants to be let roll and utilize his best weapon (his early speed) and easily projects be the controlling speed in the San Felipe.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Got Thunder
Forecast: Got Thunder (TOC=6/5; ML=6/5) has burned a considerable amount of money in his last two starts, finishing a distant second at 3/5 in a main track maiden sprint in late December and then failing again, this time at 2/5, when a non-threatening third (of six) in a dirt miler last month. Yet, he’s listed at 6/5 on the morning line and that’s probably close to where he’ll leave at in at this one mile grass event that came up unusually light in quality and offers no viable alternative. Trust him? Can’t do it but based on speed figures he almost has to win, assuming he handles the grass. In a race that his best left alone, you can use the son of Arrogate as a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet just pass the race.
Notable Workouts:
Got Thunder (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B+
Easy to the top, was ridden some through the lane and responded very well, final half mile on our watches in :12.3, :24.2 and :47.3, impressive late kick. Arrogate colt continues to impress in the morning but has been quite disappointing when it matters in the afternoon. Possibly just a morning glory, will get a chance to prove otherwise on grass next time out.
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Barnfield (February 26, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.4hg). Grade: C+
Second best in gate drill with Kirstenbosch (6f, 1:13.3hg) and Baby’s Dream (5f, 1:01hg), head-and-head until mid-stretch before weakening late and winding up more than a length back at the wire, splits of :24 flat, :36 flat :48.2 and 1:15 flat on our watches, much slower than given and not impressive while doing his best to the end. Down the road type at this stage.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 11-Honey Jar; 6-Kalon; 10-Xmas Surprise
Forecast: The first leg of the late Pick-4 is another challenging Hillside Turf Course sprint, this one for fillies and mares in the first allowance condition. Honey Jar (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2) returned following an eight month layoff to finish a weakening fourth as the favorite over this course and distance last month in a race that she very well could have needed. Given that she produced a significant forward move in her second outing last year, the M. McCarthy-trained filly seems likely to follow a similar pattern this time around. “Win rider” F. Prat stays aboard, and from a comfortable outside draw the daughter of Kantharos projects to draft into a lovely stalking position and have clearl sailing from the head of the lane to the wire. Kalon (TOC=9/2; ML=6-1) is winless in five starts over the Santa Anita turf course but turned in a career-top performance in her first try down the Hill when a rallying second at 21-1 in a similar affair in late January. She’s a prototype late-running sprinter and will get the patient ride she requires from J. Hernandez, so at 6-1 on the morning line she deserves inclusion on your ticket. Xmas Surprise (TOC=18-1; ML=20-1) is for long shot players. She’ll require a major forward move in the speed figure department in her first outing since October but the L. Powell-trained daughter of More Than Ready has been quite impressive in her recent morning breezes and could very well be much improved off the layoff. She’s nicely bred, lightly-raced and probably better than her 20-1 morning line gives her credit for
Notable Workouts:
Xmas Surprise (February 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h TT). Grade: B+
Away since October and appears to be a better type on the comeback trail, extra sharp in this half mile solo training track breeze, final quarter without being asked in :23 flat for L. Powell. Has a prior win over the local turf course and should fire a big shot fresh.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-As Time Goes By
Forecast: As Time Goes By (TOC=4/5; ML=4/5) is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in the Beholder Mile-G1 after her recent runaway score by more than 13 lengths in the La Canada S.-G3 on New Year’s Day. The five-year-old mare has finished first or second in all seven starts over the Santa Anita main track, continues to impress in morning workouts, and looks well-placed to pick up where she left off. The B. Baffert-trained daughter of American Pharoah finished second in the Beholder last year behind Swiss Skydiver, and that brilliant mare’s trainer Ken McPeak is represented again, this time with Envoutante, (TOC=8/5; ML=8/5)
Notable Workouts:
Varda (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
Comebacker in B. Baffert barn went in company As Time Goes By (5f, :59.2h) and led that one by a couple of lengths early, was put to pressure into the lane and was unable to match strides late while winding up more than a length back at the wire (workmate looked terrific), splits of :11.3, :23.2 and :47.1 for the final half mile. Been away since winning the Starlet S.-G1 in December of 2020, may need a bit more work based on this drill before being dead fit.
View Workout Video
As Time Goes By (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: A-
Caught her the final half mile a couple of lengths behind Varda (5f, 1:00h) down the backside but then catching up with that one and going by quickly in the final furlong with an impressive display of late speed, final half mile on our watches in :23.1 and :46.4, mostly on her own. Couldn’t have looked better; fresh from a 13-length romp in the La Canada S.-G3.
View Workout Video
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RACE 10: Post: 4:29 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 3-Beyond Brilliant; 4-Count Again; 8-Space Traveller
Forecast: The Frank E. Kilroe Mile-G1 is a good gambling affair that offers a 12-runner lineup and several possibilities at decent prices. Beyond Brilliant, (TOC=4-1; ML=8-1) winner of the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar last November and then beaten a half-length in the off-the-turf Mathis Bros. Mile-G2 in late December, returns to his preferred surface, lands a comfortable inside draw, switches to V. Espinoza, and has trained exceptionally well of late to indicate a career top performance may be forthcoming. Most effective on the front end but capable of stalking and pouncing if the situation dictates, the son of Twirling Candy is listed at 8-1 on the morning line and is a play in the win pool at anywhere near that price. He can also be a main punch in rolling exotic play, though we’ll use a couple of others on our ticket for protection. Count Again (TOC=9/2; ML=7/2) is the best of the deep-closing types and is fresh from a sharp win in the Thunder Road S.-G3 over this course and distance last month. He’ll need good racing luck and some help up front to have his best chance but as a relatively lightly-raced seven year old gelding (five wins in 14 starts) and with F. Prat in the saddle he’s the one to fear most. Florida invader Space Traveller (TOC=6-1; ML=5-1) was an unlucky third in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational-G1 last time out when he finished strongly after being too far back early. A repeat of that race with clear sailing makes him quite dangerous at 5-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
Subconscious (February 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 100.3h). Grade: B
In blinkers, slightly best at the wire outside Laforgia (5f, 1:01h) for Mandella, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.2, nice drill for a grass specialist on dirt. Missed at 3/5 in Thunder Road S.-G3 after stumbling at the start, can do better with a cleaner start.
View Workout Video
Beyond Brilliant (February 278, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h). Grade: B
Easy solo main track breeze, splits of :12.2, :24.2 and :49.2, sharp throughout. Freshened since late December, looks eager and fit, needs the lead for his best chance in the afternoon.
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Count Again (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, broke off seven lengths behind Flintmore (5f, 1:00.3h TT) and made up the margin through the lane to be a head back at the wire, neither one asked much in the final furlong, splits of :23.2 and :46.3 for the final half mile for ‘Again. Seven year old gelding has had only 14 career starts, so he’s fresh and still with room for a bit of improvement.
View Workout Video
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RACE 11: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Express Train
Forecast: Express Train (TOC=3/2; ML=8/5) was a sharp runner-up in the 2021 Santa Anita Handicap-G1 and this genuine and consistent 5-yerar-old appears every bit as good now as then, having won both the San Antonio S.-G2 and the San Pasqual S.-G2 leading up to this year’s Big ‘Cap. This is not a particularly strong field for this type of race, so we’re expecting the J. Shirreffs-trained horse to justify his high weight of 124 lbs. and his 8/5 morning line favoritism with a good stalking trip in a race that projects to have a modest early pace. The son of Union Rags is the ultimate grinder and will be where he needs to be – looming a threat and ready to pounce - when the field turns for home.
Notable Workouts:
Express Train (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B+
Probably went faster than given while appearing extra sharp in easy solo breeze while gearing up for Big ‘Cap, final half mile under a nice hold throughout in :23.3 and :47.4. Maintains his top form.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:37 PM
Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Workout Commentary-3/15/22
March 4, 2022
“What You Need to Know” – Gulfstream Park
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:10 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 12-You’re Killin Me; 4-Twice too Many; 9-Friendly Fella
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a Florida-bred optional claimer at seven furlongs. You’re Killin Me just won fairly convincingly over a mile at this condition, was claimed for $12,500 by M. Maker, and returns in the same spot while again being offered for that price. Normally, one might be suspicious of recent winner not being protected on the raise by his new connections but when the purse is $54,000 most claiming outfits will gladly take the quick profit even if they’re conceding the likelihood that the horse will get claimed. Comfortably drawn outside, the veteran gelding – a winner of 13 races in his career – should have clear sailing and every chance from a mid-pack early position to wear down the leaders in the final furlong. Twice too Many switches to L. Saez, gets an extra furlong to work with, and could make his presence felt late. However, with just one career win along with eight seconds and thirds, he’s gained a reputation of usually being a day late and a few lengths short. Toss him in as a back-up or a saver, but that’s all.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 11-Falconet; 6-Veterans Highway
Forecast: Falconet was impressive in a series of workouts last summer at Saratoga but never made it to the post. We haven’t seen much of her on video this winter at Palm Beach Downs other than a breezing team drill in mid-January, but the T. Pletcher-trained debut runners at Gulfstream Park always deserve close conditions and this daughter of Uncle Mo should be plenty fit for a major effort in a stronger-than-average extended sprint for 3-year-olds. She’s the lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite in a field loaded with possibilities. Veterans Highway has the benefit of a prior run, a second place finish a couple of month ago in a race that produced a next out Tampa Bay Downs winner but otherwise was a modest affair that was assigned a soft speed figure. You can use her on a ticket or two for protection, but the main push should go to Falconet.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Use (In order of preference): 2-Never Surprised, 7-Mouillage
Forecast: Never Surprised was admirable in defeat when a close second to his high-class stable mate Colonel Liam in the Pegasus World Cup Turf-G1 here in late January while earning a career top speed figure. Nothing more will be needed in today’s Canadian Turf S.-G3 to get back on the winning track. The son of Constitution has established his preferred style as a devout front-runner and should be quick enough to make the pace from his comfortable two-hole post and then have his chance to dominate gate-to-wire. The one he’ll have to worry about is the European shipper, Mouillage. A listed stakes winner and Group-3-placed while finishing first or second in nine of 11 starts, the C. Brown-trained colt has looked extra sharp in his breezes leading up to his North American barn and must be considered dangerous considering his winning connections. Preference on top goes to the obvious short-priced favorite Never Surprised but we’ll have Mouillage on a few tickets as a backup.
Notable Workouts:
Mouillage (February 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4b). Grade: B+
Even but best with Kalifornia Queen (same time) for C. Brown while under a hammerlock through the lane, final quarter (no dogs) in :24.2. Was a stakes winner in France last time out in September and looks very comfortable over firm footing. Good sort, for sure.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 1:40 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 11-Felix; 1-Particular; 7-Creative Minister
Forecast: Here is a replica of today’s second race, this one for the boys, and requires considerable coverage, as much as your budget allows. Felix was very well-meant in his debut in December but settled for second after cutting out wicked fractions behind the talented Dean’s List in a fast, highly-rated race. He shows a gap in his work pattern of 20 days since in late January but the son of Cupid switches to L. Saez, gets Lasix, and sports a :59 4/5 five furlong bullet drill Feb. 11 to indicate he has all of his speed. Additionally, the R. Nicks barn sports terrific stats with layoff runners and with the second-time starter angle. Particular flashed good gate zip to lead the way into the lane before winding up second (beaten four lengths) in a promising debut run here in early January and hails from the high percentage S. Joseph, Jr., outfit, which hits at an astounding 30 percent with second-timers. If the son of Classic Empire breaks cleanly from the rail, he could take this field a very long way on the front end. Among the newcomers, Creative Minister certainly caught the eye when breezing five furlongs in :58 3/5 in company and appearing best with Grade-1 winner (and Fountain of Youth S. entrant) Rattle and Roll last week. The barn doesn’t have a great win percentage with first-time starters but this colt is 15-1 on the morning line and would we’d have to think he’s better than that.
Notable Workouts:
Particular (February 26, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1b). Grade: B+
Lathered up but went nicely in sharp half mile drill while a half-length best over Cape Trafalgar (same time) for S. Joseph, Jr while coming the final quarter mile in :24.1 under very mild coaxing. Displayed promise in his debut in a hot maiden race in early January and seems likely to move forward with that bit of experience behind him.
View Workout Video
Creative Minister (February 26, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B+
Mild late coaxing while inside Rattle N Roll (same time) for McPeek, final half mile in :22.4 and :46.3, impressive for an unraced maiden in company with a Grade-1 winner (and looking a tad the best as well). Sophomore son of Creative Cause appears to have plenty of talent and is worth a look in a maiden special weight event, for sure.
View Workout Video
Felix (February 20, Gulfstream Park, 5f, 1:02.3b). Grade: B
Breezing in easy five furlong solo drill for Hicks, plenty left through the lane, final quarter in :24 flat. Displayed promise in debut and should produce a forward move next time, out.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Virginia Joy
Forecast: The Very One S.-G3 over the mini-marathon distance of 11 furlongs on grass looks ideal for Virginia Joy, the 2-1 morning line favorite and a rolling exotic single on our ticket. The German-bred mare, away since last summer, won her U.S. debut following a 13 month vacation so we know she can fire fresh, and a recent bullet workout (5f, 1:00.4b) at Payson Park gives strong indication that she’s fit and ready. Reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., the C. Brown-trained mare projects to settle in the second flight and then be turned loose when ready. The graded stakes winning five-year-old is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and offers good wagering value at that price, if you can get.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:40 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Kathleen O.; 4-Outfoxed; 3-Girl With a Dream; 2-Classy Edition
Forecast: This year’s edition of the Davona Dale S.-G2 for 3-year-old fillies is a powerful event with several high-quality contenders. Undefeated Kathleen O. was shut off and apparently eliminated at the start in the recent Cash Run S. over this track and distance on New Year’s Day but miraculously recovered and produced a scintillating late kick to win going away by more than eight lengths while verifying the favorable impression she made when graduating at first asking from far off the pace at Aqueduct in November. This a much tougher assignment, but she could easily be up to the task, rail post and all, if she can leave with her field and secure a reasonable mid-pack early position. She shows a strong and healthy work tab since raced, so at 9/2 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. The multiple Florida-bred stakes winner Outfoxed made hard work of it when winning a listed stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs in her sophomore debut in mid-January in her first outing since last fall. Like Kathleen O., she’ll need to step it up today against this deeper group but she has an ideal second flight, stalking style for this one-turn mile distance and could easily have it in her. Girl With a Dream may be able to inherit the role as the controlling speed, just as she did when winning the Forward Gal S.-G3 here last month. The victory earned a career top speed figure, so if she can clear the field early without being sent the Fair Grounds-based daughter of Practical Joke will be dangerous at 5-1 on the morning line. Let’s not forget about the T. Pletcher-trained Classy Edition, perfect in three starts vs. New York-bred foes as a juvenile, makes her sophomore debut following a sharp series of drills at Palm Beach Downs. Today she tackles open company, but on pure numbers she’s a fit and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Royal Spirit; 2-Coinage
Forecast: The second and third place finishers in the recent Kitten’s Joy S. hook up again in the listed Palm Beach S. and are the main players in this one mile turf event for 3-year-olds. In that last race, Royal Spirit stalked the pace to the head of the lane, gained the lead in deep stretch but just failed to hold when going down by a neck to the late-charging Grand Sonata. With ‘Sonata sitting this one out, ‘Spirit looks tough, though the third place finisher in that event, Coinage, seems likely to produce a forward move after making the running and then weakening late in his first start since November. The M. Casse-trained Coinage is favorably drawn in the two-hole and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics again, so if he is fitter in this race than he was last time out the son of Tapit could make the running and never look back. These two are difficult to split, so we’ll include both in rolling exotic play while maybe giving Royal Spirit a very slight edge on top.
Notable Workouts:
Coinage (February 18, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.4b TC DU). Grade: B+
Washy, but looked sharp in solo half mile breeze around dogs on grass, cruise control throughout. May have been a tad short in Kitten’s Joy when worn down late as the favorite but seems likely to step forward next time.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B+
Single: 4-Prevalence
Forecast: Let’s take a gamble on Prevalence at 8-1 on the morning line in this second-level allowance one-turn miler for older horses. Once highly-regarded after winning his first two starts over the local main track like a potential Derby prospect last year, the son of Medaglia d’Oro went sour and was stopped on before returning in an extended sprint at this level last month. The B. Walsh-trained colt finished a non-threatening fifth, but didn’t break well, raced in traffic, and then found his best stride too late in a performance that was much better than the line will show. With that tightener behind him and with an extra furlong to work with today, we’re expecting this lightly-raced and talented colt to step forward in a major way as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:10 ET Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Jouster; 7-Alms; 8-Wakanaka
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Honey Fox S.-G3 over a mile on grass for fillies and mares is an extremely challenging affair, with several legitimate possibilities to consider. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Jouster is a need-the-lead type, and when she is able to establish the pace without having to set fast fractions she can be very difficult to run down. Away since July but training better than she ever has for T. Pletcher, the daughter of Noble Mission has won off a layoff in the past, so the possibility exists for a career top effort. At 9/2 on the morning line, we’ll put her on top. Alms, an excellent runner-up at 19-1 in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf-G3 over the local lawn last month that produced a career top speed figure, projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. It’s been awhile since she’s won but a repeat of her last race could easily be good enough. Wakanaka was a quality performer in Italy prior to importation and ran like she needed the race when sixth, beaten five lengths, in the same race that Alms just finished second in. She switches to J. Ortiz and seems likely to produce a significant forward move, and a 6-1 on the morning line offers reasonable value.
Notable Workouts:
Jouster (February 12, Palm Beach Downs, 5f, 1:01.1b). Grade: A-
Sharp, eager, and full of run in solo move for T. Pletcher, :48.1 on our watches from the half mile pole to the wire while under a tight hold every step of the way. Away since last July but appear to be returning in peak form and has won off a long layoff in the past.
View Workout Video
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RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 3-Speaker’s Corner; 4-Fearless
Forecast: Even so though there’s a negative six pound weight shift he must deal with compared with main rival Fearless, Speaker’s Corner should be capable of winning right back at the same track and distance that produced his most recent victory, a visually impressive and highly-rated score in the F. W. Hooper S.-G3 in late January. A winner of four races from seven career starts and with four triple-digit Beyer speed figures already on his resume, the son of Street Sense projects to be on the lead, though he has won from a stalking, second flight position in the past, so regular rider J. Alvarado can assess the early pace flow and pick a strategy. The W. Mott-trained colt shows a strong, heathy work tab since raced, so at 5/2 on the morning line he deserves top billing both in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Fearless, a four time winner from six starts at Gulfstream Park, is the second choice at 3-1 and deserves consideration. Second without mishap in the Hooper, the son of Ghostzapper has a chance to turn the tables with the weight-break in his favor and would have his chances increase if a faster-than-par early pace materializes.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: X
Single: 1-Abaan
Forecast: Abaan has really blossomed since being transferred to grass and he keeps improving with every start. A winner of four of his last five, three of which were accomplished over marathon trips, the son of Will Take Charge is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in 2022 running of the Mac Diarmida S.-G2 over 11 furlongs, and from his highly favorable rail draw can dominate this field on the front end or from a stalking position, whichever is required. Regardless of the race flow, we’re anticipate the T. Pletcher-trained gelding to justify what surely will be a short price as a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Abaan (February 12, Palm Beach Downs, 4f, :48.4hb). Grade: B
Final three furlongs in :36 flat, just galloping along, never asked, while maintaining his edge. Turf specialist gets over the dirt just fine though he’s clearly most effective on the lawn. Ready for another major effort.
View Workout Video
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RACE 12: Post: 5:40 ET Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 8-Emmanuel; 4-In Due Time; 2-Simplification
Forecast: Mo Donegal, the expected race favorite in this year’s renewal of the Fountain of Youth S.-G2, was withdrawn a couple of days ago when he came down with a fever, a tough break for the colt and his connections as well as the gambler who thought he was vulnerable and wished he would have been able to stay in the field and siphon some money. With or without him in the lineup, we would have favored Emmanuel, and obviously still do. Unbeaten in two starts while visually very impressive in both outings, the son of More Than Ready tackles a much stronger group of 3-year-olds than he’s seen so far, but we’re expecting the T. Pletcher-trained colt to be up to the task. Part of the pace in his first two starts, he might not be quick enough to make the running in a middle distance event loaded with front-running types, but we don’t expect him to be inconvenienced from a second flight, stalking position, so as long as he leaves with his field and is within striking range throughout, he should be just fine. In Due Time pulverized a first-level allowance field at a one turn mile last month like a colt with a very high ceiling and based on pure numbers the son of Not This Time should be a major factor throughout. His pedigree suggests that this stretch-out in trip will be to his liking. Simplification overcame a poor start to rally late and finish an excellent second in the Holy Bull S.-G3 over this track and distance last month and today he could return to his pace-pressing style, though he won’t be getting any breathers if Markhamian is gunned to front from the rail, as expected. Today we’ll find out if the A. Sano-trained colt is a legitimate player for the spring classics.
Notable Workouts:
Simplification (February 19, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B
Rough changing leads (not unusual for him) but finished under a nice hold while showing his speed throughout, final quarter mile in :24.1. Likely to be close to the pace if not on the lead in the Fountain of Youth after breaking slowly in the Holy Bull S. last time out.
View Workout Video
In Due Time (February 18, Palm Meadows, 5f, :59.3b). Grade: B-
Was ridden and shown the stick through the lane, final quarter mile in :24.2. Good move but was asked fairly aggressively in the final furlong. Certainly wasn’t breezing.
View Workout Video
Rattle N Roll (February 26, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B
Worked outside maiden Creative Minister (same time) and was maybe a head back at the wire under mild late coaxing, final half mile in :22.4 and :46.3. Was a bit washy and had to be asked a little bit more than workmate but still earned fast closing. Might need a race to be 100 percent fit.
View Workout Video
Emmanuel (February 26, Palm Beach Downs, 4f, :48b). Grade: B+
Easy half mile breeze inside Mustasaabeq (same time) for T. Pletcher, splits of :25 flat and :48.2 on our watches, coasting to the wire and then finishing very well through the lane before being allowed to gallop out strongly all the out to the original starting point. Big, strong colt with plenty of scope and power gets a class test in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 and is approaching the race just right.
View Workout Video
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RACE 13: Post: 6:12 PT Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 4-Spendarella; 2-Mischievous Kiss; 8-Opalina; 3-Diamond Wow
Forecast: This is a much stronger than average edition of the Herecomesthebride S.-G3 for 3-year-olds and it will take a pretty good filly to win it. Spendarella looks very much like a good one, indeed. The G. Motion-trained sophomore performed like a veteran when winning at first asking, leaving sharply from the gate to press the pace, switching off midway, and then re-breaking when asked entering the lane to draw away with complete authority while earning a nice number. She has trained impressively since that outing, so we’re expecting the daughter of Karakontie to produce a significant forward move, one that makes her capable of winning right back at 6-1 on the morning line. We’ll certainly play her at the price in the win pool, but in rolling exotic play with go deeper to cover all of the bases. Mischievous Kiss was a stakes winner routing on grass as a 2-year-old and returns for a stable that has superlative stats with layoff runners. Drawn comfortably inside, the daughter of Into Mischief projects to settle in a second flight, ground-saving position and then have her chance when the pressure is turned on. Opalina is fresh from a win in the Sweetest Chant S.-G3 over the local lawn last month and looks tough right back. She’s not overwhelmingly fast on speed figures but is tough, dependable, and experienced and will be bearing down from the quarter pole home. Diamond Wow has plenty of talent but was far below form in her recent comeback sprinting on dirt in the Forward Gal S.-G3. She’s back on her preferred surface, stretches out to a distance she can handle, and adds blinkers, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll find a spot for her on our rolling exotic ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Diamond Wow (February 25, Palm Meadows, 6f, 1:13b TC). Grade: B+
No dogs, in blinkers, broke off behind Pretty Provocative (6f, 1:13.3b TC) and stalked that one to the top of the lane before going by easily without ever being asked, final quarter mile in :24.1 with a ton left. Better mover on grass than dirt and should produce a significant forward move when returned to the lawn.
View Workout Video
Spendarella (February 27, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:00.1b TC). Grade: A-
No dogs, in company inside Bipartisanship (same time) for G. Motion and looked terrific under a strong hold to breezing to the wire and appearing best by almost a length, full of run throughout, final quarter mile in :24.1. Won at first asking in good style and trained impressively since. High quality prospect.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:37 PM
AI Picks: $5M 1/ST Saturday in March Pick 15 Sweepstakes
March 3, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk
The upcoming 1/ST Saturday in March Pick 15 Sweepstakes could change your life to the tune of $5 million. To assist your contest selections and wagering, the 1/ST BET app artificial intelligence picks for all 15 races are outlined below.
The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.
Gulfstream Race 3 | Canadian Turf Stakes | 1:10 pm ET
#2 Never Surprised (29%) | 4-1 ML
Gulfstream Race 5 | The Very One Stakes | 2:10 pm ET
#5 Virginia Joy (25%) | 2-1 ML
Gulfstream Race 6 | Davona Dale Stakes | 2:40 pm ET
#4 Outfoxed (31%) | 5-1 ML
Gulfstream Race 7 | Palm Beach Stakes | 3:10 pm ET
#9 Red Danger (31%) | 4-1 ML
Gulfstream Race 9 | Honey Fox Stakes | 4:10 pm ET
#6 Gift List (28%) | 4-1 ML
Santa Anita Race 4 | San Carlos Stakes | 4:28 pm ET
#4 Cezanne (26%) | 5-2 ML
Gulfstream Race 10 | Gulfstream Park Mile | 4:40 pm ET
#3 Speaker’s Corner (31%) | 5-2 ML
Santa Anita Race 5 | Buena Vista Stakes | 4:58 pm ET
#5 Leggs Galore (23%) | 7-2 ML
Gulfstream Race 11 | Mac Diarmida Stakes | 5:10 pm ET
#1 Abaan (26%) | 8-5 ML
Santa Anita Race 6 | San Felipe Stakes | 5:30 pm ET
#5 Doppelganger (25%) | 9-5 ML
Gulfstream Park 12 | Fountain of Youth Stakes | 5:42 pm ET
#8 Emmanuel (25%) | 3-1 ML
Gulfstream Park 13 | Herecomesthebride Stakes | 6:12 pm ET
#12 Lia Marina (27%) | 9-2 ML
Santa Anita Race 9 | Beholder Mile | 7:00 pm ET
#3 As Time Goes By (33%) | 4-5 ML
Santa Anita Race 10 | Kilroe Mile | 7:29 pm ET
#10 Flavius (14%) | 6-1 ML
Santa Anita Race 11 | Santa Anita Handicap | 8:00 pm ET
#8 Stilleto Boy (32%) | 5-2 ML
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:38 PM
Race of the Week: Santa Anita Handicap | Saturday, March 5, 2022
March 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
The tradition-rich Big 'Cap will be the grand finale to a 15-stakes 1/ST Saturday in March extravaganza at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. The mile and one-quarter feature goes as Race 11 and anchors a trio of consecutive G1 stakes, preceded by the Beholder Mile on dirt and the Kilroe Mile on turf. The Santa Anita Handicap offers 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers up to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets if your selection finishes second or third. It also anchors a 12% takeout ($1 minimum) all-dirt pick five that mixes stakes at Gulfstream and Santa Anita.
Field Depth:
EXPRESS TRAIN is a G2 winner and runner-up in this G1 headliner a year ago. SPIELBERG and KISS TODAY GOODBYE also are G2 winners. WARRANT is a G3 winner, while STILLETO BOY is multiple G1-placed. STILLETO BOY has held the strongest recent company lines, while EXPRESS TRAIN and KISS TODAY GOODBYE are familiar foes in California's top handicap division stakes.
Pace:
AMERICAN THEOREM would be the pacemaker here if his connections opt for the Big 'Cap over the 7-furlong San Carlos, a race he's cross-entered. There's not a confirmed early burner. STILLETO BOY and WHY WHY PAUL WHY also have the potential to set the tempo. Deep closers appear compromised by this race shape.
Our Eyes:
EXPRESS TRAIN just missed by a half-length in this race last year in what has to be considered a much tougher renewal, book-ended in the results by Idol and Maxfield. He's arguably a better horse now than in 2021 at the time, fresh off wins in the G2 San Antonio and G2 San Pasqual on the Big 'Cap prep path. He'll give 3-8 pounds to his competition and has failed to slam the door late in 3 previous 10-furlong tries. But note the rest of this field has but 2 off-the-board finishes in as many attempts at the distance. He's clearly the horse to beat; but the distance at least cracks the door open. EXPRESS TRAIN has looked strong in his training at XBTV.com.
STILLETO BOY should enjoy himself in the paddock, looking around and not seeing some of the buzzsaws he's run up against in the last several months. But after 54-1, 51-1, 19-1 and 26-1 over-achievements, can you swallow something less than 5-1 on him Saturday? After all, he's still eligible for a non-winners of 3 lifetime condition and has not won a graded stakes in 5 tries. John Velazquez takes the mount, and that's absolutely a plus.
WHY WHY PAUL WHY and WARRANT are the shippers to consider. The former has looked strong working on video for his first start since coming to reputable trainer Michael McCarthy. The former $30,000 claim should be in contention throughout with a ground-saving run. WARRANT won last year's G3 Oklahoma Derby for Brad Cox and last out was a distant third behind Saudi Cup-bound Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon. He broke his maiden in his second start of the form cycle and likely will improve off his Jan. 22 try at Fair Grounds. Flavien Prat takes the call to complete formidable connections.
As for the others: SPIELBERG is 0-4 in stakes since his 2YO season and couldn't keep up late with EXPRESS TRAIN last month. The extra distance would not appear a benefit, though he's bred for it. KISS TODAY GOODBYE, sixth in this race last year, has gone off form and was no match for the favorite in his last 2.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
EXPRESS TRAIN is 8-9 in the trifecta on dirt at Santa Anita and just missed in this race last year vs. tougher.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SOY TAPATIO looked very good in a gate workout Feb. 12 for this and has won 2 straight. We don't know his ceiling compared to some of these veterans, though pedigree might cloud his ability over this trip.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's try to maneuver around STILLETO BOY and find exacta value elsewhere. $40 exacta part-wheel EXPRESS TRAIN over WHY WHY PAUL WHY and WARRANT ($80); $20 exacta part-wheel EXPRESS TRAIN over SOY TAPATIO.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:38 PM
Handicappers' GPS: Guide to Santa Anita | Saturday, March 5, 2022
March 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk
We dial in your daily guide to 1/ST BET and Xpressbet promotions, along with pertinent handicapping hints as you plan your attack. Saturday's 11-race Santa Anita Park card is co-host to the inaugural 1/ST Saturday in March, which also joins key stakes races at Gulfstream Park in featured pick five wagers.
Race 1 (3:00 PM ET) // allowance // 6-1/2 furlongs (downhill turf)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Santa Anita early pick five begins.
Handicapping Hint: 13 entered in what might be considered another chaotic turf sprint. But Gold Phoenix figures a solid favorite off a troubled, narrow defeat in his US unveiling for Flavien Prat and Phil D’Amato. Prat is winning 42% with favorites at the meet. Once you get past that contender, the rest look very similar, thus, creating a classic ‘single or spread’ situation in the multi-race bets.
Race 2 (3:30 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 6 furlongs
$2500 Santa Anita early pick four hit-and-split begins
Handicapping Hint: 7 entered, but there’s but a single past performance line among the entire field. XBTV’s free video workout library is a must for this event. $1.7 million purchase Taiba drilled a furlong in :10-1/5 last March to lure a big pricetag and the Bob Baffert trainee will take a ton of money on the tote. Baffert and John Velazquez are 15: 11-1-1 at the meet when favored. It’s likely that simple.
Race 3 (4:00 PM ET) // starter allowance // 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)
Handicapping Hint: 8 entered and favorites have won 43% at the meet in turf sprints with fields of 8 or less. There’s less traffic and pace pressure the smaller the field, allowing the best horse to shine. This race doesn’t have an obvious favorite on paper.
Race 4 (4:30 PM ET) // G2 San Carlos Stakes // 7 furlongs
Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five begins; get up to a $10 free bet when you play this wager with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet.
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Handicapping Hint: 9 entered, including Santa Anita specialist Brickyard Road (8-11 locally on dirt) and beaten, odds-on G3 Palos Verdes favorite Cezanne. They figure to be the biggest threats early and late. Eight Rings and Shooters Shoot give this race depth.
Race 5 (5:00 PM ET) // G2 Buena Vista Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.
Handicapping Hint: 11 entered with west coast distaff turf stalwarts Going to Vegas and Mucho Unusual both cutting back in distance. The latter was runner-up in this race a year ago. Canooding comes off a 22-1 upset in the G3 Megahertz on Jan. 29, indicating this local division’s volatility. Keeper of Time comes west from Gulfstream to try and take advantage.
Race 6 (5:30 PM ET) // G2 San Felipe // 1-1/16 miles
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.
Santa Anita Jackpot Rainbow 6 begins.
Handicapping Hint: 7 entered, featuring the brilliantly fast sprinter Forbidden Kingdom in his first route attempt. Stablemates Armagnac and Doppelganger have been morning workmates and worthy of a video review free at XBTV.com. Cabo Spirit was second-best in the G2 Lewis last out behind Messier, who bypasses this race and awaits the Santa Anita Derby by design. Anything beyond this quartet would trigger huge payoffs intra-race and in the multi-race wagers.
Race 7 (6:00 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 1 mile (turf)
$4000 Santa Anita late pick five hit-and-split begins
Handicapping Hint: 9 entered with only 3 first-time starters, so it’s a group with some form to evaluate. Got Thunder has been beaten favorite at 9-5, 3-5 and 2-5 in his 3 dirt starts and will give turf a go. He is going to be a massive favorite again and the focus of many singles in multi-race bets. If you can find a successful alternative, you will be rewarded.
Race 8 (6:30 PM ET) // allowance // 6-1/2 furlongs (downhill turf)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Santa Anita $6000 late pick four hit-and-split begins.
Handicapping Hint: 13 entered in a fillies and mares version of today’s opening Santa Anita race. This one re-matches multiple horses from Jan. 2 and Jan. 23 races at Santa Anita, thus making for a race where video replay study should be exercised. Honey Jar was beaten favorite in the most recent of those races and probably goes favored again, though vulnerable.
Race 9 (7:00 PM ET) // G1 Beholder Mile // 1 mile
Handicapping Hint: 6 entered, led by As Time Goes By, who won the G3 La Canada in preparation for this by more than 13 lengths. She was second in this race last year to the star East/Midwest filly Swiss Skydiver, whose trainer Kenny McPeek will try for a return strike via Envoutante this time. The Beholder Mile should run through these two. Wildcard G1-winning juvenile of 2020 Varda returns from 15 months on the sidelines.
Race 10 (7:30 PM ET) // G1 Kilroe Mile // 1 mile (turf)
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.
Handicapping Hint: 12 entered, an extremely familiar cast of turf milers that collectively dance nearly all the dances and take turns. Space Traveler, Flavius and Tell Your Daddy travel west to add to the already difficult puzzle. Pre-race looks may be the separator as to whom is ready to rock on this day, so pay attention to any visual clues. This is the kind of race you could be 5-deep in multi-race bets and still popping antacids until it is posted ‘official.’
Race 11 (8:00 PM ET) // G1 Santa Anita Handicap // 1-1/4 miles
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.
Handicapping Hint: 8 entered the Big ‘Cap and its clear the locals this winter are led by Express Train, winner of the G2 San Antonio and G3 San Pasqual as he tried to one-up his second-place finish in this race from 2021. Stilleto Boy has faced the very best horses of the past year in his last 4 starts – Medina Spirit, Knicks Go, Flightline and Life Is Good the winners in that fabulous group. Eastern transplant Why Why Paul Why and New Orleans-based Warrant for Brad Cox are the wildcards. Only of these 8 have tried the 1-1/4 miles distance, combining for a 5: 0-1-1 record. Find the final-furlong survivor.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:38 PM
Handicappers' GPS: Guide to Gulfstream | Saturday, March 5, 2022
March 2, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk
We dial in your daily guide to 1/ST BET and Xpressbet promotions, along with pertinent handicapping hints as you plan your attack. Saturday's 13-race Gulfstream Park card is co-host to the inaugural 1/ST Saturday in March, which also joins key stakes races at Santa Anita in featured pick five wagers.
Race 1 (12:10 PM ET) // allowance-optional claiming // 7 furlongs
Gulfstream early pick five begins.
Handicapping Hint: 12 entered, including several familiar foes that have repeatedly faced one another. The 1-2-3 finishers from Feb. 10 Race 8 re-match, a good opportunity for video study. You’re Killing Me looks for a repeat, claimed last out by the recently hot Mike Maker barn.
Race 2 (12:40 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 7 furlongs
$2500 Gulfstream early pick four hit-and-split begins.
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Handicapping Hint: 15 entered, while only 3 in the main body of 12 runners has ever made a start. Utilize the free XBTV workout video library for more study. Rookies from Brown, Pletcher, Mott and McGaughey will be interesting to follow on the toteboard. Eyeball pre-race looks and paddock commentary as well.
Race 3 (1:10 PM ET) // G3 Canadian Turf // 1-1/16 miles (turf)
Free to play $5 million Pick 15 Sweepstakes begins.
Handicapping Hint: 7 entered, topped by likely heavy favorite Never Surprised, last seen second in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf. Unless French export Mouillage is the goods for Chad Brown in his first start since September, Never Surprised will be a single on many early pick four/pick five tickets.
Race 4 (1:40 PM ET) // maiden special weight // 7 furlongs
Handicapping Hint: 16 entered in the colts’ counterpart to Race 2. Half of the 12 in the main body of the field will be making career debuts. This race is loaded with regal pedigrees, big barns and potential. Utilize the free XBTV workout video database for more study. Eyeball pre-race looks and paddock commentary as well as the tote.
Race 5 (2:10 PM ET) // G3 The Very One Stakes // 1-3/8 miles (turf)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Handicapping Hint: 9 entered, featuring a 1-2 rematch from the Jan. 29 G3 La Prevoyante Stakes. Beautiful Lover and Sorrel were separated by only a head in that one over a furlong farther in distance. Fresh faces to the cast look to provide highly legitimate opposition.
Race 6 (2:40 PM ET) // G2 Davona Dale Stakes // 1 mile
Handicapping Hint: 7 entered in which 4 runners enter off of at least 2-race winning streaks. Girl With A Dream has the most recent of those scores and fastest in terms of speed figures, but it’s uncertain whom will go favored. Nearly all of these will be meeting for the first time.
Race 7 (3:10 PM ET) // Palm Beach Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five begins; get up to a $10 free bet when you play this wager with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet
Handicapping Hint: 9 entered as Feb. 5 G3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes narrow runner-up Royal Spirit figures to be solidly favored with a rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. for Todd Pletcher. He’ll be singled on a lot of Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five tickets. Beat him and the ticket payoff jumps.
Race 8 (3:40 PM ET)
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Gulfstream Jackpot Rainbow 6 begins.
Handicapping Hint: 10 entered and all eyes will be on the return of Triple Crown winner Justify’s younger half-brother Stage Raider. XBTV’s free video workout library has 5 of his morning drills catalogued to view, important since he’s been away since last May. The big-name field includes last year’s Florida Derby runner-up Soup and Sandwich as well as ’21 Championship Meet steam sophomore Prevalence. Both name players are looking to bounce back off disappointing runs.
Race 9 (4:10 PM ET) // G3 Honey Fox Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
$4000 Gulfstream late pick five hit-and-split begins.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.
Handicapping Hint: 11 entered with a very interesting, and fast, early pace situation potentially to unfold. Spend some time watching race replays on these, including a quartet exiting the inaugural G3 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
Race 10 (4:40 PM ET) // G2 Gulfstream Park Mile // 1 mile
$6000 Gulfstream late pick four hit-and-split begins.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.
Handicapping Hint: 9 entered, featuring a 1-2 rematch of the G3 Fred W. Hooper, where Speaker’s Corner went wire to wire and turned away the rally of favorite Fearless. The early speed of fresh face Injunction and the come-backing Ny Traffic could change the pace dynamics.
Race 11 (5:10 PM ET) // G2 Mac Diarmida Stakes // 1-3/8 miles (turf)
Handicapping Hint: 11 entered, but only 2 trainers represent 8 of the contenders – Mike Maker (5) and Todd Pletcher (3). Pletcher’s front-running Abaan will benefit from the rail with the start close to the far turn. Maker’s Temple and Media Blitz were 2-3 trying to catch him to no avail last time at a furlong farther in distance. Abaan was 3-2 favorite in the McKnight and likely similar, if not shorter, here.
Race 12 (5:42 PM ET) // G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes // 1-1/16 miles
Up to a $10 money-back special on win bets if they finish second or third.
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-dirt stakes pick five.
Handicapping Hint: 12 entered, and with the announced scratch of original morning line favorite Mo Donegal, Galt is expected to join the field. Simplification is beautifully drawn after his troubled start, but solid-finishing, Holy Bull runner-up. A strong expected pace could favor Rattle N Roll late, making his 3-year-old debut. Emmanuel may go favored off his impressive wins vs. lesser. Several good options abound. Utilize the free XBTV workout video library for more study.
Race 13 (6:12 PM ET) // G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes // 1 mile (turf)
Part of the special Coast to Coast all-turf stakes pick five.
Handicapping Hint: 13 entered with on obvious favorite. Lia Marina and Opalina exit stakes wins at the meet, but 1/2-length and 3/4-length margins in those victories make this look competitive. This race anchors all the late-day Gulfstream multi-race wagers and appears wide open. If you can narrow the field and have a strong opinion, it’s the kind of race that could separate you from the betting pack in ticket construction.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:39 PM
1/ST Saturday in March: Gulfstream/Santa Anita Post Draw Reaction
February 28, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk
Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita jointly present the 1/ST Saturday in March with 15 stakes races slated to be run at the two iconic racetracks. It’s Fountain of Youth Day in South Florida, while it’s Big ‘Cap Day in Southern California. The two stuffed undercards fill out a mega stakes lineup that should prove to be one of the most exciting racing days of 2022. Entries were drawn for both full cards Monday.
Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can take advantage of several 1/ST Saturday in March wagering promotions, including up to a $10 free bet on both the all-dirt Coast to Coast stakes pick five and the all-turf stakes Coast to Coast pick five (each featuring a low 12% takeout and $1 minimum). Fans can also enter the 1/ST Saturday in March free sweepstakes, where if you’re lucky enough to pick all 15 stakes winners, you could earn a life-changing, $5 million payday.
Gulfstream’s nine 1/ST Saturday in March stakes include a field of 12 (with an also-eligible) for the Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain of Youth, featuring Triple Crown hopefuls Rattle N Roll and the unbeaten Emmanuel. The Fountain of Youth pace looks to be rapid with key speed contenders drawing to the inside. Saturday’s Gulfstream undercard highlights feature eight runners in the Grade 2 $200,000 Gulfstream Park Mile (Speaker’s Corner and Fearless re-matched) and 11 entrants in the Grade 2 $200,000 Mac Diarmida on turf (led by eight contenders from trainers Mike Maker and Todd Pletcher).
Santa Anita’s six 1/ST Saturday in March stakes include the Grade 1 $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap, where last year’s runner-up Express Train leads a field of eight as he seeks a third straight victory. The Grade 2 $400,000 San Felipe for Triple Crown aspirants lured San Vicente-winning speedster Forbidden Kingdom among a field of seven. The Grade 1 $500,000 Beholder Mile, featuring Evoutante and As Time Goes By, as well as the Grade 1 $500,000 Kilroe Mile, which boasts a big field of 12, provide a rousing supporting lineup.
CNBC will broadcast the 1/ST Saturday in March in a two-hour program from 4-6 pm ET. Nick Luck will be onsite at Gulfstream, while 1/ST BET handicapper Eddie Olczyk highlights the coverage from Santa Anita.
Saturday // March 5 // Gulfstream Park // Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain of Youth // Race 12 // 5:42 PM ET
1. Markhamian // Marcos Meneses // Juan Avila
2. Simplification // Jose Ortiz // Antonio Sano
3. Howling Time // Joe Talamo // Dale Romans
4. In Due Time // Paco Lopez // Kelly Breen
5. Dean Delivers // Miguel Vasquez // Michael Yates
6. Rattle N Roll // Brian Hernandez Jr. // Kenny McPeek
7. A.P.’s Secret // Tyler Gaffalione // Saffie Joseph Jr.
8. Emmanuel // Luis Saez // Todd Pletcher
9. High Oak // Junior Alvarado // Bill Mott
10. Giant Game // Corey Lanerie // Dale Romans
11. O Captain // Javier Castellano // Gustavo Delgado
12. Mo Donegal // Irad Ortiz Jr. // Todd Pletcher
13. (Also Eligible) Galt // Joel Rosario // Bill Mott
//
Saturday // March 5 // Santa Anita Park // Grade 1 $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap // Race 11 // 8:00 PM ET
1. Spielberg // Abel Cedillo // Bob Baffert
2. Why Why Paul Why // Juan Hernandez // Michael McCarthy
3. Warrant // Flavien Prat // Brad Cox
4. Soy Tapatio // Diego Herrera // Doug O’Neill
5. American Theorem // Mike Smith // George Papaprodromou
6. Express Train // Victor Espinoza // John Shirreffs
7. Kiss Today Goodbye // Kyle Frey // Eric Kruljac
8. Stilleto Boy // John Velazquez // Ed Moger Jr.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:39 PM
Jon White: A Filly on Derby Top 10, Plus 3YO Stakes Picks
March 2, 2022 | By Jon White
Regret, Genuine Risk, Winning Colors…and Secret Oath?
Could Secret Oath possibly join one of the most exclusive clubs in all of American racing, a club that has just three members, the three fillies to have outrun the boys to win the coveted Kentucky Derby?
Secret Oath doesn’t just debut on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. She makes a mighty splash, showing up on the list all the way up at No. 2.
Why do I have Secret Oath at No. 2? Because if were making selections for the Kentucky Derby today, she would be my second choice. Messier would my pick to win it. And if Messier wasn’t in the race, my choice to win the roses, if she were in the race, would be Secret Oath.
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:
1. Messier
2. Secret Oath (new)
3. Classic Causeway
4. Emmanuel
5. Smile Happy
6. Epicenter
7. Early Voting
8. Rattle N Roll
9. White Abarrio
10. Simplification
Newgrange drops off my Top 10 this week after finishing off the board in last Saturday’s Grade I Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He was No. 10 last week.
Actually, I came very close to putting Secret Oath at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. But I decided that Messier still deserves to be at the top of the list off his 15-length tour de force in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. In my opinion, that’s the most impressive performance so far this year by a 3-year-old.
Messier was in danger of dropping out of the top spot on my Top 10 this week due to not having a published workout since the Feb. 6 Lewis.
But Messier finally had a workout Monday morning at Santa Anita. He worked four furlongs in :48.60. He worked in company with El Camino Real Derby winner Blackadder, who also was clocked in :48.60. You can view this workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/empire-ma...ary-28th-2022/ (https://www.xbtv.com/video/empire-maker/messier-outside-and-blackadder-worked-4-furlongs-in-48-60-at-santa-anita-park-on-february-28th-2022/)
Messier, working on the outside, began a half-length or so behind Blackadder. They raced as a team to the finish line, with Messier finishing slightly in front.
It’s particularly noteworthy that official clockers listed the workout by both Messier and Blackadder as “breezing” rather than “handily.”
At Southern California tracks, a workout is rarely listed as breezing. A breezing designation is given when a horse is considered by the official clockers to have worked considerably easier, without any urging at all, than a horse whose workout is termed handily.
Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains both Messier and Blackadder.
Messier has recorded three wins and two seconds from five career starts. He’s lost twice at Los Alamitos. When racing either at Santa Anita or Del Mar, the Canadian-bred colt by 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker has won by margins of 6 1/2, 3 1/2 and 15 lengths.
When Messier won the 1 1/16-mile Lewis, he posted a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. It’s the highest Beyer by a 3-year-old in 2022 to date.
Messier is expected to make his next start in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles on April 9.
Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who like Baffert is an ex-Quarter Horse trainer, sent out the filly Winning Colors to take the 1988 Santa Anita Derby by 7 1/2 lengths in a sensational performance.
In her next start, Winning Colors was victorious in the Kentucky Derby. She followed in the footsteps of two other fillies to win the Run for the Roses, the great Regret in 1915 and Genuine Risk in 1980.
Secret Oath, a Kentucky-bred daughter of 2016 Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old male Arrogate, has reeled off three lopsided victories at the current Oaklawn meet. Luis Contreras was in the saddle for all three wins on the Arkansas oval.
After winning a one-mile allowance race by 8 1/4 lengths on Dec. 31, Secret Oath registered a 7 1/4-length victory in the Martha Washington Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 29.
In last Saturday’s Grade III Honeybee Stakes, again at 1 1/16 miles, Secret Oath was steadied midway on the far turn when in traffic, according to the Equibase chart. She then “hit a seam along the rail turning for home,” as the chart further noted. Undaunted by being steadied or racing inside rivals, she advanced readily to poke her head in front at the quarter pole, then drew off to win by 7 1/2 lengths in 1:44.74.
Later in the day at Oaklawn, the one-eyed Un Ojo pulled off a 75-1 shocker vs. 10 male foes in the Grade II Rebel Stakes. What was his final time? It was 1:45.69. In fifths, Secret Oath overcame a spot of trouble and won the Honeybee in 1:44 3/5, faster than Un Ojo’s 1:45 3/5.
The Thoroughbred Times’ T.D. Thornton believes that comparing Secret Oath’s “Honeybee romp against the performance of males in the Rebel three hours later on the same Oakawn card is a non-starter. The Rebel rates as the ‘chaos race’ of the season so far among Derby preps because the 4-5 favorite was a no-show in an otherwise so-so field, and the slowly run race was won by an improbable one-eyed gelding who paid $152.80.”
Thornton also noted that “rain had moved into Hot Springs by the time the feature race arrived, and although the track was still listed as ‘fast’ for the Rebel, it would soon require sealing and a downgrade to ‘sloppy’ for the final race. The un-California-like conditions would be eventually cited as a possible excuse for trainer Bob Baffert’s ship-in fave Newgrange, who appeared primed to pounce after a trouble-free stalking strip but instead retreated to sixth.”
Lukas also is the trainer of the improving Ethereal Road, who had a wide trip and finished second in the Rebel at 15-1, while Barber Road ran third at 6-1. Newgrange was off the board at 4-5 for his first loss in four career starts.
Will Secret Oath make her next start in Oaklawn’s Grade I Arkansas Derby in an attempt to accrue the qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate? Or will she instead run against -- and probably again trounce – fillies in Oaklawn’s Grade II Fantasy Stakes?
Ethereal Road’s good effort for Lukas in the Rebel does make him a legit contender for the Arkansas Derby on April 2. Does this make it less likely that Secret Oath also runs in that race? Perhaps. But if both Secret Oath and Ethereal Road run in the Arkansas Derby, I have absolutely no doubt that the filly will be a shorter price -- probably a much shorter price -- than the colt.
For those ruling out the possibility that Lukas will enter both Secret Oath and Ethereal Road in the Arkansas Derby, bear in mind that this is a trainer who has never been shy to run more than one horse in an important stakes race. This is the trainer who once sent out five of the 12 starters in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Hollywood Park in 1987. Lukas ran Dream Team (who finished third), Classic Crown (sixth), Over All (seventh), Lost Kitty (10th) and Blue Jean Baby (11th).
Or how about the time Lukas was represented by five starters in the Kentucky Derby? That occurred in 1996. Grindstone won by a scant nose while defeating fellow Lukas trainees Prince of Thieves (third), Editor’s Note (sixth), Victory Speech (10th) and Honour and Glory (18th).
Grindstone provided Lukas with one of what would be a total of four Kentucky Derby victories, joining the aforementioned Winning Colors, Thunder Gulch and Charismatic.
As a further indication that Lukas might run Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby even though the 86-year-old trainer has Ethereal Road, in each of Lukas’ four Kentucky Derby victories, he did have other starters in the race.
Making history is part of Lukas’ DNA. He has made a lot of history during his illustrious career.
It is not lost on Lukas that the Arkansas Derby this year is five weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. That’s something he especially likes when weighing the pros and cons as to whether to run Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby.
Lukas might have five Kentucky Derby wins to his credit instead of four if there had been five weeks between the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby in 1984.
The Lukas-trained Althea was voted a 1983 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly. In 1984, she finished second in the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy on April 14, then one week later annihilated males when she won the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby by seven lengths in 1:46 4/5. At that time, the Kentucky Derby came just two weeks after the Arkansas Derby.
Althea’s Arkansas Derby performance was so strong that if she had run like that again in the Kentucky Derby, she might have given the winner, Swale, a run for his money. But it was asking way too much of Althea to run in three races in three weeks, especially when she had run so hard in the Arkansas Derby. Althea wound up 19th in the Kentucky Derby.
Learning from what happened with Althea, Lukas four years later had a much better four-week gap between the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby with Winning Colors. Unlike Althea, Winning Colors’ tank was full for her Kentucky Derby.
By the way, the TDN’s Thornton pointed out this week that Lukas spent much of the week leading up to the 1984 Arkansas Derby saying “he wouldn’t enter Althea against the boys. He did anyway.”
About the only thing Lukas hasn’t accomplished is winning the Triple Crown, though “Coach” remarkably did once win six straight in the series. He won the 1994 Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes with Tabasco Cat, the 1995 Derby with Thunder Gulch, the 1995 Preakness Stakes with Timber Country, the 1995 Belmont with Thunder Gulch, then the 1996 Derby with Grindstone.
Do you really think Lukas wouldn’t relish becoming the only trainer in history to win the Kentucky Derby with two fillies? But for that to possibly happen, Secret Oath has to run in the Arkansas Derby in order to try and earn enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby field.
Secret Oath already has enough points to get into the Kentucky Oaks. So if she doesn’t run well in the Arkansas Derby, she can go ahead and go the Oaks route on the first Friday in May.
Besides, a return to competition in the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks on March 26 is looking more likely for undefeated Eclipse Award winner Echo Zulu. That certainly could be a springboard to the Kentucky Oaks for the four-for-four filly trained by Steve Asmussen. Echo Zulu has not appeared under silks since winning the Grade I BC Juvenile Fillies by 5 1/4 lengths last Nov. 5 at Del Mar.
Heck, if Lukas doesn’t run Secret Oath in the Arkansas Derby to try and qualify her for the Kentucky Derby, he might come to regret it. It’s not out of the question that the Kentucky Derby just might turn out to be a more winnable spot than the Kentucky Oaks for Secret Oath, especially if Messier is not in the Derby and Echo Zulu is in the Oaks.
And what if Lukas did win the Kentucky Derby with Secret Oath? What if the filly then also won the Preakness? How big of a story would that be to have her going to the Belmont with a chance to become the first filly to achieve Triple Crown glory? It would be HUGE. And I sure get the impression by the way Secret Oath has been widening in the final furlong, the 1 1/2 mile-mile distance of the Belmont might even be something she would relish.
Is Secret Oath going to win the Triple Crown? In reality, there is almost no chance of that. On the other hand, back when I was a writer for the Daily Racing Form, I first met Lukas at his Hollywood Park barn one spring day way back in 1981. If there is one thing I have learned when it comes to D. Wayne Lukas, never -- and I mean never -- think it’s impossible for him to do anything.
SECRET OATH GETS R-E-S-P-E-C-T
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin has Secret Oath at No. 7 in his Kentucky Derby rankings this week. Smile Happy is Haskin’s No. 1.
“I normally would never consider ranking a filly, especially with no points, but we are dealing with Wayne Lukas,” Haskin wrote. “In typical fashion, Lukas is playing it cool, saying right now that they are looking at the Fantasy for Secret Oath and the Arkansas Derby with Rebel runner-up Ethereal Road, but added they are leaving their options open. He did mention how much faster Secret Oath ran in the Honeybee Stakes than the boys did in the Rebel and that she did it under cruise control.
“I’ve known Lukas for 35 years,” Haskin continued, “and I have seen how bold he can be, especially with fillies, such as Winning Colors, Lady’s Secret, Serena’s Song, Althea and a number of others who were successful against the boys. He loves doing things others wouldn’t think of doing. I can see Lukas, at age 86, being daring one more time, especially with a filly this special and in a year when there are no real standouts. I’m not sure he can pass up this opportunity at this stage of his career. If he goes the Oaks route no harm done.”
1/ST BET analyst and handicapper Jeff Siegel has Secret Oath at No. 8 this week among his “main players” in his Triple Crown rankings, which are: 1. Messier, 2. Emmanuel, 3. Smile Happy, 4. White Abarrio, 5. Rattle N Roll, 6. Classic Causeway, 7. Epicenter, 8. Secret Oath, 9. Zozos, 10. Charge It, 11. Early Voting, 12. Zandon, 13. Mo Donegal, 14. Forbidden Kingdom, 15. Major General.
WINNING BEYERS FOR HONEYBEE AND REBEL
Secret Oath received a 92 Beyer Speed Figure for her Honeybee triumph. This is the highest Beyer by a Honeybee winner since Rose to Gold’s 98 in 2013.
Eight Belles recorded a 91 Beyer when she won the 2008 Honeybee. She would go on to finish second to Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.
Un Ojo’s Beyer for winning the Rebel was just an 84.
Below are the Beyers for Rebel winners going back to 1990 (the figures prior to last year are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):
2022 Un Ojo (84)
2021 Concert Tour (94)
2020 Nadal (96)
2019 Omaha Beach (96)*
2019 Long Range Toddy (95)*
2018 Magnum Moon (97)
2017 Malagacy (94)
2016 Cupid (95)
2015 American Pharoah (100)
2014 Hoppertunity (100)
2013 Will Take Charge (95)
2012 Secret Circle (92)
2011 The Factor (103)
2010 Lookin At Lucky (98)
2009 Win Willy (102)
2008 Sierra Sunset (99)
2007 Curlin (99)
2006 Lawyer Ron (94)
2005 Greater Good (95)
2004 Smarty Jones (112)
2003 Crowned King (90)
2002 Windward Passage (94)
2001 Crafty Shaw (102)
2000 Snuck In (101)
1999 Etbauer (102)
1998 Victory Gallop (105)
1997 Phantom On Tour (102)
1996 Ide (93)
1995 Mystery Storm (92)
1994 Judge TC (95)
1993 Dalhart (105)
1992 Pine Bluff (106)
1991 Quintana (no Beyer listed)
1990 Nuits St. Georges (82)
*Run in divisions
BUBBLING UNDER MY TOP 10 (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)
Azure Coast
Barber Road
Barese
Belgrade
Blackadder
Call Me Midnight
Charge It
Comandperformance
Cyberknife
Doppelganger
Ethereal Road
Forbidden Kingdom
Giant Game
In Due Time
Major General
Mo Donegal
Momentous
Morello
Newgrange
Nitrous Channel
Pappacap
Pinehurst
Pioneer of Medina
Rockefeller
Shipsational
Slow Down Andy
Straight Up G
Tiz the Bomb
Un Ojo
Volcanic
We the People
Zandon
Zozos
FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH SELECTIONS
This Saturday’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park has drawn a field of 10. The 1 1/16-mile contest has attracted a field of 13, including who is on the also-eligible list.
Mo Donegel would have been a contender, but he is going to be scratched, according to Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman.
The Donegal Racing partnership that owns Mo Donegal and Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher had been “on the fence on whether to run in the Fountain of Youth,” Privman wrote. “Drawing post 12 on Monday gave them more to think about.”
And then Mo Donegal had “a low-grade temperature of 102 degrees” Wednesday morning, Pletcher said, adding that Mo Donegal will be scratched and run next in Aqueduct’s Grade II Wood Memorial on April 2.
“We probably would have scratched anyway with post 12, but this made the decision for us,” Pletcher said. “He’s on target to head straight to the Wood. That’s the most likely scenario.”
Fountain of Youth entrants on my Top 10 are No. 4 Emmanuel, No. 8 Rattle N Roll and No. 10 Simplification.
My selections for the Fountain of Youth Stakes are below:
1. Emmanuel
2. Simplification
3. In Due Time
4. Rattle N Roll
Emmanuel, trained by Pletcher, is two for two, winning by 6 3/4 and 4 1/2 lengths. This is the much-anticipated stakes debut for the Kentucky-bred More Than Ready colt.
Simplification won Gulfstream’s one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes by four lengths on Jan. 1. He then rallied after a poor start to finish second in Gulfstream’s Grade III Holy Bull at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 5.
In Due Time rolled to a 5 3/4-length win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race Feb. 4 at Gulfstream. His 92 Beyer in that race suggests he could prove a tough customer in the Fountain of Youth, which is his stakes debut.
I’m not picking Rattle N Roll higher than fourth mainly because he could be a bit rusty off the bench. He hasn’t raced since winning the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last Oct. 9.
SAN FELIPE STAKES SELECTIONS
Seven are scheduled to clash at 1 1/16 miles in this Saturday’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.
My selections for the San Felipe Stakes are below:
1. Forbidden Kingdom
2. Doppelganger
3. Armagnac
4. Cabo Spirit
This will be Forbidden Kingdom’s first start in a race going this far. He’s coming off a front-running 2 1/4-length win in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 29. Hall of Famer Richard Mandella trains the Kentucky-bred colt by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Doppelganger, who hails from the powerful Baffert barn, finished fourth as the 4-5 favorite in San Vicente. I would not be shocked if he turns the tables on Forbidden Kingdom in this longer affair.
Armagnac, also trained by Baffert, won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at second asking Jan. 21 at Santa Anita. It’s to his credit that he’s already won going this far, unlike Forbidden Kingdom and Doppelganger.
Cabo Spirit finished second in the Robert B. Lewis last month. That’s the good news. The bad news is he was 15 lengths behind Messier at the end of that race.
GOTHAM STAKES SELECTIONS
Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes has drawn a field of 10 to do battle at one mile around one turn.
My selections for the Gotham Stakes are below:
1. Morello
2. Rockefeller
3. Dean’s List
4. Glider
How good is Morello? At this point, who knows? He’s untested in two career starts. Trained by Hall of Famer Asmussen, the Kentucky-bred Classic Empire colt won a six-furlong maiden race by 4 1/4 lengths at Aqueduct on Nov 27. That was followed by a five-length victory in the seven-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at the Big A on Feb. 6.
Asmussen has said he feels Morello has “a lot of quality.”
Rockefeller is back in New York after finishing second to Newgrange in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 1. He won the Grade III Nashua Stakes at Belmont Park on Nov. 7.
Dean’s List, a Pletcher trainee, is two for two. Both of his wins have come in six-furlong sprints at Gulfstream.
Glider had to settle for second behind the highly regarded Emmanuel at Tampa Bay Downs last time out.
NTRA REVEALS ITS FIRST POLLS FOR 2022
The first editions of this year’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll and Top 3-Year-old Poll were announced Monday.
The Top Thoroughbred Poll is indicative of who might be crowned a divisional champion and, moreover, Horse of the Year. Eligible journalists and broadcasters each week submit their Top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points basis.
The 2022 Top Thoroughbred Poll concludes after the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland on Nov. 4-5.
Voting in the final Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2022 will be released following the Grade I Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June11.
Life Is Good, winner of the Grade I Pegasus World Cup by 3 1/4 lengths at Gulfstream over 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go (now retired), is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2022, which is listed below:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 295 Life Is Good (28)
2. 225 Letruska (1)
3. 181 Colonel Liam
4. 145 Hot Rod Charlie
5. 137 Flightline
5. 100 Mandaloun
7. 88 Midnight Bourbon
8. 73 Country Grammer
9. 61 Knicks Go
10. 43 Express Train
The Top 10 in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2020:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 360 Knicks Go (36)
2. 270 Essential Quality
3. 265 Life Is Good
4. 242 Medina Spirit
5. 205 Letruska
6. 126 Hot Rod Charlie
7. 67 Golden Pal
8. 64 Yibir
9. 59 Jackie’s Warrior
10. 55 Gamine
FIRST 3-YEAR-OLD POLL TOPPED BY EPICENTER
Epicenter, winner of Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes, is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2022:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 254 Epicenter (7)
2. 169 Smile Happy (2)
3. 165 Messier (11)
3. 153 Classic Causeway (3)
5. 114 White Abarrio
6. 86 Un Ojo
7. 83 Corniche (2)
7. 83 Secret Oath (3)
9. 72 Zandon (1)
10. 61 Mo Donegal
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:39 PM
Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 5, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing
I’ve handpicked winners in 12 stakes races across three tracks for my horseracing choices for Saturday.
I visited Aqueduct Racetrack, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita Park because each of them is hosting one of the qualifying races that make up the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying races. I also pick some winners for a couple of Kentucky Oaks prep races, as well.
And as always, you can find the full Saturday race-cards for all three tracks at our best online sportsbooks.
Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Aqueduct Racetrack
Race Nine is the Busher Invitational Stakes is a $250,000 purse, one-mile stakes race on the dirt track for three-year-old fillies. The top four finishers in the Busher Invitational Stakes are awarded leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Oaks.
I’m calling this one for the 6/1 underdog, Sterling Silver, with top jockey Trevor McCarthy in the irons.
This filly won both of her career starts, including her initial maiden attempt in November and the Franklin Square Stakes (Black Type) here at Aqueduct in January.
Granted, all six of the fillies in this race have performed well in stakes races, but Sterling Silver’s the only one to post triple-digit speed figures while doing so.
Thomas Albertrani trains Sterling Silver for owner Mark T. Anderson.
Race ten is the Gotham Stakes (Grade III), a $300,000 purse, one-mile race on the dirt track for three-year-olds. The top four finishers in the Gotham Stakes are awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
My money’s on the third-favored (at 4/1) entry in this ten-horse field: Rockefeller, ridden by Trevor McCarthy.
This three-year-old colt moneyed three of his four career starts, winning two, including his initial maiden at Del Mar as well as the Nashua Stakes (Grade III) at Belmont Park in November. Most recently, he finished second in the Sham Stakes (Grade III) at Santa Anita in January.
Bob Baffert trains Rockefeller for owners SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, and Robert E. Masterson.
Saturday’s Picks for Gulfstream Park
Race six in the Davona Dale Stakes, a $200,000 purse, one-mile race on the dirt track for here-year-old fillies. The top four finishers in the Davona Dale Stakes are awarded leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Oaks.
I’m betting my two dollars on the 3/1 morning-line favorite: Girl With a Dream, piloted by Luis Saez.
This filly finished in the money five of her six career starts, winning four, including her most recent three—an allowance race at Churchill Downs in November, the Letellier Memorial Stakes (Black Type) at Fair Grounds in December, and the Forward Gal Stakes (Grade III) here at Gulfstream last month.
Brad H. Cox trains Girl With a Dream for owners Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister.
Race ten is the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, one-mile dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward. I like the 3/1 second-favored entry in this nine-horse field—Fearless, with Luis Saez in the irons.
This six-year-old gelding finished ten of his 12 career starts in the money, winning five, including the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (Grade II) in February 2021, and the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes (Grade III) in December.
Fearless has performed better and more often in stakes races than the otherwise impressive morning-line favorite, Speaker’s Corner.
Todd A. Pletcher trains Fearless for Repole Stable.
Race eleven is the Mac Diarmida Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, 1-3/8 miles run on the turf course for four-year-olds and upward. I’m buying a win ticket on the 8/5 morning-line favorite, Abaan, ridden by Luis Saez.
This one’s my no-brainer pick of the day. No other entry in this eleven-horse field comes close to this five-year-old gelding’s record: Eight money finishes in ten career starts, with four wins.
Those four wins include an allowance race in November at Aqueduct, the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (Listed) in December, and the W. L. McKnight Stakes (Grade III) at the end of January.
Todd A. Pletcher trains Abaan for owners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Alex Daigneault.
Race twelve is the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II), a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The top four finishers in the Fountain of Youth Stakes are awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
I’m betting my two dollars on the fourth-favored (at 8/1) entry in this thirteen-horse field: Rattle N Roll, with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. in the irons.
As you’d expect, all of the horses in this race are stars, but this colt stands out: Three money finishes in three career starts, two of them wins—including his most recent, the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Grade I) at Keeneland in December.
Kenneth G. McPeek trains Rattle N Roll for Lucky Seven Stable (Mackin).
Saturday Picks for Santa Anita Park
Race four is the San Carlos Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for four-year-olds and upward. I agree with the morning line: Buy a winning ticket on the 5/2 favorite, Cezanne, ridden by Flavien Prat.
This five-year-old finished in the money four of his five career starts, winning three, including the Kona Gold Stakes (Grade III) last April. He most recently finished third in the Palos Verdes Stakes (Grade III) in late January.
Bob Baffert—who has two entries in this nine-horse race—trains Cezanne for owners Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, and St. Elias Stable. His other horse, Eight Rings, is second-favored at 3/1, and might be worth a safety bet.
Race five is the Buena Vista Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, one-mile turf run for fillies and mares four years old and upward. I’m betting on the 3/1 morning-line favorite, Going to Vegas, with Flavien Prat aboard.
This five-year-old mare finished in the money 17 of her 23 career starts, winning seven, including the John C. Mabee Stakes (Grade II) at Del Mar in September and the Rodeo Drive Stakes (Grade I) at Santa Anita in October.
Going to Vegas whiffed her most recent race, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade I) at Del Mar in November, finishing 11th out of 12 after leading the pack until the final stretch. The shorter length of the Buena Vista Stakes should make a real difference for her.
Richard Baltas trains Going to Vegas for Abbondanza Racing, LLC, Medallion Racing, and MyRacehorse.
Race six is the San Felipe Stakes (Grade II), a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The top four finishers in the San Felipe Stakes are awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
I like the 8/5 morning-line favorite, Forbidden Kingdom, piloted by Juan J. Hernandez.
This colt finished all four of his career starts in the money, winning two, including his initial maiden attempt last August and the San Vicente Stakes (Grade II) here at Santa Anita in January. He also notably finished second at the Bob Hope Stakes (Grade II) at Del Mar in November.
Richard E. Mandella trains Forbidden Kingdom for owners MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm LLC.
Race nine is the Beholder Mile Stakes (Grade I), a $500,000 purse, one-mile dirt track run for fillies and mares four years old and upward. My money’s on the 4/5 morning-line favorite, As Time Goes By, with Flavien Prat aboard.
This five-year-old mare finished ten of her 13 career starts in the money, winning six, including her two most recent races, the Bayakoa Stakes (Grade III) at Los Alamitos in December and the La Canada Stakes (Grade III) here at Santa Anita in January. In this short field of five (Moonlight d’Oro has been scratched), she’s the standout.
Bob Baffert trains As Time Goes By for owners Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, and Derrick Smith.
Race ten is the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes, a $500,000 purse, one-mile turf run for four-year-olds and upward. I’m buying a winning ticket on the 8/1 sleeper in this 12-horse field—Beyond Brilliant, ridden by Victor Espinoza.
This four-year-old colt got off to a slow start in his career, but once he broke his maiden and put a handful of allowance races behind him, he started cashing paychecks at some of the horseracing world’s richest races.
For the record, Beyond Brilliant moneyed eight of his ten career starts, winning three, including the Hollywood Derby (Grade I) at Del Mar in November.
John A. Shirreffs trains Beyond Brilliant for C R K Stable LLC.
Race eleven is the Santa Anita Handicap (Grade I), a $650,000 purse, 1-1/4 miles dirt track run for four-year-olds and upward. I think the morning-line favorite is going to see some real competition from the third-favored Warrant, but I’m still betting my two dollars on the 8/5 favorite, Express Train, with Victor Espinoza aboard.
This five-year-old finished ten of his 13 career starts in the money, winning six, including his two most recent, the San Antonio Stakes (Grade II) in December and the San Pasqual Stakes (Grade II) last month–both here at Santa Anita.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:40 PM
Fair Grounds Picks: Another Saturday Turf Edition on March 5
By J.N. Campbell
Fair Grounds Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022
Race 1: 2-3-1-5
Race 2: 4-2-8-5
Race 3: 3-5-6-2
Race 4: 4-5-1-3
Race 5: 6-1/1A-5-4
Race 6: 2-7-6-5
Race 7: 5-3-4-7
Race 8: 7-11-6-2
Race 9: 6-4-3-8
**Most Likely Winner: Tommy Bee #2 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Blessed Anna #4 (Race 4)**
Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Tommy Bee #2, 7/2):
A regularly scheduled turf race on the March card at the Fair Grounds is the Black Gold $75k for 3-yr-olds. This turf route normally brings together a nice group of sodbusters. I want to put my dollars and sense behind Brad Cox’s entry. This well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro has great potential, and a powerful ownership behind him. Bob Lapenta and Madaket Stables have watched their investment progress, and he looks poised to move up into a “Non-G” like this. Cox is having another superb Meet, and when he pairs with Colby Hernandez, they can be lethal. With a strong turf pedigree, expect this one to be there in the end, as he gets back to a surface that suits.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 4: Blessed Anna #4, 5/1):
In a short field like this one, with no deserving favorite present, it will be tough to catch a long shot. However, I like Shane Wilson’s 5-yr-old mare by Fast Anna for several reasons. First, she has made some steady progress during the Meet, and performed admirably in a trio of contests. Each time she hit-the-board it proved to be a mark of consistency. Secondly, her sire has good roots in the grass. I also like the fact that the connections are getting James Graham, a veteran who is also having a strong go of late. That is the best news ever. I cannot say I am particularly concerned about the other LA breds in here. This is turf racing, and the Stall Course is ready to host.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #4 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 1 Mile, Edward J. Johnston Memorial S. $60k, 4+ LA Breds):
Looking over the form for this turf “feature,” I am particularly interested in betting this one because it offers some major value. With a full field of 11 drawn-in, the options are aplenty. Of course, we know that based on the M/L odds that Bret Calhoun holds a very strong entry in Who Took the Money #6. This gelding by Street Boss comes in with a nice record of 3 wins in his last 4 starts. He has taken on some of these rivals in this spot before, and handled them with ease. Deshawn Parker rode him effortlessly in his last 2 starts, and expect that he will be tough once again. I am up for looking in the clearance section for some bargains, and not just accepting this favorite at what is sure to be a short price. Let’s look to Gennadi Dorochenko’s Mr. Universe #11. This box car-priced runner by Tonalist is sure to be a double-digit number on the tote, and I like this colt. If you look back at his time last summer at the now defunct Arlington Park, he ran against way tougher competition than this. Just being in the Bruce D (G1) on the former Arlington Million card is something. The young Jose Vega gets the call in this spot, and he rode him nicely in a state bred ALLW Co. race back on 10 Feb. That win by-a-head showed moxie, and this is not one to underestimate. The now-4-yr-old has 2 wins @FG … As for one other entry that I would like to use, don’t forget about Ron Faucheux’s Mangelsen #7. The gelding by Big Band Sound is laden with turf in his bloodline, and he is a specialist on the lawn. The last time out was a frontend victory in an OC20kn2x, and the barn makes the switch to Jareth Loveberry. His riding is starting to heat up, and that makes this one very dangerous on the engine. Let’s use all 3 of these entries and see what we can put together.
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 6/7/11
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:40 PM
Today’s Free Horse Picks – Saturday, March 5th 2022
By Reggie Garrett
We are covering 7 tracks on Saturday, March 5th, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, Aqueduct and more. Good luck and enjoy!
Aqueduct – 12:50 ET
Race 1: 6 Al’s Prince
Race 2: 2 Don the Jeweler
Race 3: 1 Reop Rocks
Race 4: 3 Matty’s Marauder
Race 5: 6 State Planning
Race 6: 1 Safalow’s Mission
Race 7: 5 Chris and Dave
Race 8: 7 American Gentleman
Race 9: 4 Venti Valentine
Race 10: Gotham Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Fair Grounds – 1:05 CT
Race 1: 5 Tripper John
Race 2: 8 Charlie G
Race 3: 3 Golden Passage
Race 4: 2 Offspring
Race 5: 4 Wow Me Fast
Race 6: 2 Tommy Bee
Race 7: 7 Big Chopper
Race 8: 7 Mangelsen
Race 9: 3 New Year’s Party
Gulfstream Park – 12:10 ET
Race 1: 4 Twice too Many
Race 2: 1 Signal From Noise
Race 3: 7 Mouillage
Race 4: 10 Positive Review
Race 5: 2 Harajuku
Race 6: 5 Sweet Dani Girl
Race 7: 9 Red Danger
Race 8: 1 Liam
Race 9: 7 Alms
Race 10: 3 Speaker’s Corner
Race 11: 8 Temple
Race 12: Fountain of Youth Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 13: 5 Beside Herself
Oaklawn Park – 1:00 CT
Race 1: 4 Freudian Fate
Race 2: 7 Ernie Banker
Race 3: 6 Breaking News
Race 4: 2 Hardly a Secret
Race 5: 8 Seau
Race 6: 5 Hillary G
Race 7: 7 Cole Spur
Race 8: 3 Much Better
Race 9: 3 Tempt Fate
Race 10: 7 Bella Runner
Santa Anita Park – 12:00 PT
Race 1: 10 See Through It
Race 2: 5 Mauritius
Race 3: 1 Bristol Bayou
Race 4: 9 Shooters Shoot
Race 5: 5 Leggs Galore
Race 6: San Felipe Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 7: 9 Tuskegee Cat
Race 8: 5 Ultimate Hy
Race 9: Beholder Mile Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 10: Frank E. Kilroe Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 11: Santa Anita Handicap Entries & Free Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 12:16 ET
Race 1: 3 Spanish Delight
Race 2: 5 Firehorn
Race 3: 8 Bunny Princess
Race 4: 3 Tea’s Dream
Race 5: 6 Macho Real
Race 6: 3 Fully Loaded
Race 7: 8 Sparkling Plenty
Race 8: 2 Harpoon Harry
Race 9: 9 Drama’s Prayer
Race 10: 6 D’craziness
Turfway Park – 6:15 ET
Race 1: 3 Thrombocytopenia
Race 2: 5 The Boss Factor
Race 3: 2 Super Steamy
Race 4: 8 Icarus
Race 5: 11 Bloodline
Race 6: 9 Bubble Rock
Race 7: 5 Royal County
Race 8: 10 Kick Out the Jams
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:40 PM
Gulfstream Park Picks: Fountain of Youth Saturday LP5 ticket on March 5
By J.N. Campbell
Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022
Race 1: 6-4-12-9
Race 2: 5-11-6-1
Race 3: 7-2-3-6
Race 4: 1-8-4-2
Race 5: 8-2-5-6
Race 6: 3-5-2-1
Race 7: 2-6-4-9
Race 8: 10-7-1-4
Race 9: 3-8-6-9
Race 10: 4-3-8-9
Race 11: 7-1-6-10
Race 12: 8-7-2-4
Race 13: 4-5-8-6
**Most Likely Winner: Emmanuel #8 (Race 12)**
**Best Value: Fantasioso #7 (Race 11)**
LATE PICK 5…
LEG 1: (Race 9: Turf, 1 Mile, Honey Fox S. (G3), $150k, F&M 4+)
The Late Pick 5 sequence on this Super Saturday is going to be nothing short of a doozy … Taking to the GP Turf Course (which I am still convinced is just painted dirt), the Honey Fox is a Grade 3 fixture this time of year. I want to tip a turfer that has solid grass experience, and when it comes to a top selection, I like Todd Pletcher’s Jouster #3. During her 3-yr-old filly career this daughter of Noble Mission amassed a nice record, and it started on this very track. Pletcher watched her blossom, and coming back after a major break, I think she can move forward with the steady Luis Saez back in the irons. Let’s use her on top, but I also like the look of a couple of other entries. Trainer Brian Lynch’s Gift List #6, and Bill Mott’s Wakanaka #8 are promising … The former is an experienced filly that got a tough set of breaks in the Pegasus F&M Turf (G3) in late January. Julien Leparoux did his very best, and I think this cutback in distance might be of assistance. As for Mott’s runner, her dam traces her line through Kodiac (GB), but her experience has mainly resided on the grass in Italy. She came to Mott’s stable last year, and her debut in the Pegasus WC (G3) was not a poor effort. It was her 1st race in the U.S., and now Mott tabs Jose Ortiz to ride. This is a shrewd move … Let’s go 3-Deep here, and that should suit!
Selections: 3/6/8 (3-Deep)
LEG 2: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 Mile, Gulfstream Park Mile S. (G2), $200k, 4+)
It is rematch time, and I am looking forward to seeing Todd Pletcher’s Fearless #4 and Bill Mott’s Speaker’s Corner #3 go head-to-head. Last time, in the Grade 3 Fred Hopper S., it was Mott who got the better of Pletcher. Now, the tables will turn, and I like the chance at some redemption. Pletcher’s gelding by Ghostzapper is not going to get stuck down on the rail, and with Luis Saez riding once again, I think this one is a “Single” for sure. Mott got the leg up last time, but it will not be the case again. Repole has a game winner in their stable, and the venerable veteran should be able to comeback nicely here. He is fit as can be.
Selections: 4 (Single)
LEG 3: (Race 11: Turf, 1 3/8ths, Mac Diarmida S. (G2), $200kk, 4+)
Heading back to the painted grass, we are wading into some tougher races, and this one is no exception. This is a Grade 2 distance test, and make no mistake about it, we could be sitting on a price horse, if all goes to plan. I know that Todd Pletcher (3 entries), and Mike Maker (5 entries) make up the bulk of this field. Frankly, I am only mildly interested in their horses. Of course, Abaan #1 has the power to win, based on the fact that he won the McKnight (G3) last time out. Luis Saez went wire-to-wire, and in the process, never looked back for Eclipse Thoroughbreds. Using him in a horizontal wager like this one has to happen, but I am a fan of 2 others that look intriguing. Phil Serpe’s Safe Conduct #6 has a number of distance races under his saddle, and he just turned 4-yrs-old this year. Even though he will be a big price, I wouldn’t underestimate his abilities because he has competed against some tough customers at Belmont and Woodbine in ’21. I like that Julien Leparoux gets the call, and his riding in situations like these can be inspired. Coming off a rest since December, he looks ready to fire. The other turfer that I want to use is from Jeff Bloom’s outfit, Bloom Racing, and this 7-yr-old was right at the wire in his last race. The John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3) was, for the 1st time in its history, a “Dead Heat.” Fantasioso #7 worked hard in the last furlong, and James Graham just got him up in time. Ignacio Correas has this one headed in the proper direction, and I think he can take a big step forward in this spot. His late-running style really works, and the choice of Brian Hernandez, who happens to be in-town, is excellent. He is going to be a massive price, and will certainly get overlooked. I think these 3 I mentioned give us an excellent opportunity to notch a winner … Now, on with the big show!
Selections: 1/6/7 (3-Deep)
LEG 4: (Race 12: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Fountain of Youth S. (G2), $400k, 3, KYD148 Points, 50-20-10-5)
As FOY Week unfolded, we learned the news that Todd Pletcher’s Mo Donegal would not be able to run because of a fever. The HOF conditioner confirmed that his colt would try to point to the G2 Wood Memorial in early April. That scratch shifted things a bit, but it did not change my top selection … Pletcher’s other half of his uncoupled entry, Emmanuel #8. As I stated in my Runners Guide, this lightly-raced colt by More Than Ready was awfully good last time out in a prep for this race at Tampa. He passed the eye test that day in late January in an OC75kn1x event. Winning by 4+ lengths, he was in command from the beginning. I think this budding superstar has what it takes to win a G2 and secure his spot in the gate at Churchill Downs. Once again, Luis Saez and Pletcher work together, and this is a solid match. The colt’s past 2 works look quite good … One other entry that gives me pause is from the barn of Saffie Joseph. I liked A.P.’s Secret #7 because of his ability to set some pretty fast fractions. His last race at Gulfstream back in early January was a “key” jumping off point, and the S. Florida conditioner clearly had this FOY spot in mind. The colt by Cupid has been training very well, and with the addition of Tyler Gaffalione, I think he is a contender at a price. Joseph continues to exhibit impressive skills, so I would not leave him out of the mix. Nothing like a couple of strong opinions to keep this ticket price down … on to the finale!
Selections: 7/8 (2-Deep)
LEG 5: (Race 13: Turf, 1 Mile, Herecomesthebride S. (G3), $125k, 3F)
The younger version of the Honey Fox is this race for 3-yr-old fillies … the Herecomesthebride. A Grade 3, this year’s edition has a full field of 12 (plus an AE) that will be trying to get 2 turns. Luckily, I have left enough in the old kitty to invest heavily here, and we are going to need it … My top choice goes to Graham Motion’s Spendarella #4. Owned by the dignified and efficient Gainesway Stable, this filly is well-bred for the grass by Karakontie (JPN). She broke her maiden on debut at Gulfstream back on 2 Feb., and I was on her then. She track the pace quite well, and with Jose Ortiz in the irons, was able to use that gifted turn-of-foot down the lane. Ortiz is back, and I think she could be another filly star for this fabulous conditioner. Looking right next door in the starting gate, I would not leave out Todd Pletcher’s Beside Herself #5. With 3 races under her saddle already, the Michael Tabor-owned filly by Uncle Mo broke her own maiden last out in a MSW60k, just like her rival. The old angle of 3rd in the cycle looks possible here, and I would never count out Jose’s brother Irad Ortiz. As for some insurance picks, just to hedge a bit, let’s also use Bill Mott’s Mischievous Kiss #2, Mark Casse’s Lemieux #6, Roderick Rodriguez’s Opalina #8, and finally Christophe Clement’s Lia Marina #12. Each of these entries appears to either have some class advantages or is trained by a grass master that could cook up a victory. One quick mention … you will notice an “Also-Eligible” that is entered for Chad Brown called Dolce Zel #13. I would find a way to include her, especially if Irad Ortiz takes the mount. She is well-bred, and comes to GP with some European form. Do not miss her! I will say this, the Herecomesthebride might end up being one of the more competitive, if not the … most competitive contest on the entire card. As Peter Aiello is fond of saying in his race calls when it is overtly contentious, “Who da ya like here?” Let’s hope that one of our picks can close out this card, and get us back to the window to cash!
Selections: 2/4/5/6/8/12/AE-13 (6-Deep)
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Ticket: 3-6-8 / 4 / 1-6-7 / 7-8 / 2-4-5-6-8-12-13(AE)
.50 P5 TICKET COST: $54.00 (does not include the AE)
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:40 PM
TimeformUS Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, March 5, 2022
David AragonaMar 04, 2022
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RACE 8: AMERICAN GENTLEMAN (#7)
Trash Talker could attract some support in this spot as he steps up in class to face N1X company. This isn’t the strongest race for the level, but it’s still a tougher field than Trash Talker defeated last time when he got loose on the front end here two weeks ago. He’s capable of running some competitive speed figures when things go his way, but he figures to get some early pressure here from Bustin Shout. I don’t trust him, and instead prefer horses who have competed against tougher fields at this level. That includes all three horses exiting the seventh race on Feb. 5. Castle Chaos is the one that figures to garner the most attention from that spot after finishing well to get up for third behind runaway winner Southern District. He got shuffled back a little on the turn, but that actually worked out for him because it allowed his rider to wheel him outside to the best part of the track. The inside was not the place to be on Feb. 5, as all of the best running was done out in the middle of the racetrack. For that reason, I want to give a shot to American Gentleman coming out of that race. A mile is probably too far for him anyway, but he was forced to gravitate towards the inside once he inherited the lead coming around the far turn, and he understandably faded late. I like the turnback in distance, and thought that he ran particularly well two back when closing after a wide trip to get up to win over Trash Talker. That’s proven to be a strong race, as the five runners who finished directly behind American Gentleman have returned to improve their speed figures in their next starts.
:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Aqueduct
RACE 9: VENTI VALENTINE (#4)
Radio Days has been well-meant right from the start. She got bet down to favoritism in her career debut and didn’t disappoint. She then won as easily as could be over this track in December before tackling stakes foes in Florida. While she lost the Grade 3 Forward Gal as the 3-5 favorite, she got bumped back to last at the start while the winner enjoyed a soft front-running trip. She’s always been cut out to go this far, and has consistently run the fastest speed figures, though it’s not as if she has a massive edge over this field. I expect her to be a very short price given the general hype around her, and I’m not sure her chances of winning are commensurate with heavy favoritism, though I do think she’s the horse to beat. Among the logical alternatives, I’m most against Magic Circle. She does figure to have a pace advantage, but I’m not thrilled with her last race, in which she rode a rail bias and wasn’t able to improve on her top speed figure even with that boost. I prefer the two fillies drawn directly to her inside, and I’ll let price be my guide. I made Venti Valentine my top pick, since I do think she’s the second most likely winner. She was nearly perfect last year, beating N.Y.-breds in her first couple of starts before just missing in the Grade 2 Demoiselle. I thought that was a very game effort, in which she battled back valiantly after getting bumped in midstretch. She has been training in Florida through the winter and has looked strong in recent works, though there is a gap in her February training. The Jorge Abreu barn has been quiet lately, but that could just mean he’s gearing up for a spring push, which could kick off here. The other horse that I want to use is Morning Matcha. She’s run well in both of her local starts despite settling for second each time. Though she was unable to reel in Magic Circle last time, she was wide against the rail bias for the second half of that race. Turning back to the one-turn mile should suit her deep-closing style, though there isn’t much pace signed on.
RACE 10: BOLD JOURNEY (#8)
There is a ton of early speed signed on in this Gotham, which could force the hand of Dean’s List most of all. This runner has to be ridden aggressively as he ships up from Florida and stretches out from a pair of six-furlong events. I like the tenacity that this colt displayed last time beating the talented Dean Delivers, and he does have a pedigree to suggest that a mile should be within his scope. Todd Pletcher doesn’t have particularly strong stretch-out statistics, and the early pace pressure could be his undoing. The logical horse to beat from a trip standpoint is Morello. He’s one of the few major contenders who has shown the ability to pass horses and finish strongly. I like the way he overcame a poor start in his career debut, and he stepped forward from a speed-figure standpoint in the Jimmy Winkfield last time. The problem is that he just seems a little too obvious, and could be overbet for that reason. The short price that I don’t want is Rockefeller. I thought this horse was fortunate when he won the Nashua two back, and I didn’t like his effort in the Sham last time when barely holding second despite getting a perfect stalking trip. My top pick is Bold Journey. My initial reaction to his last race was that he may not want to go this far, but a closer look at the TimeformUS Pace Figures for the Gander Stakes reveals that he made a significant middle move to break the race open. He paid the price for that early acceleration in deep stretch. This time I think he’s going to be ridden a bit more conservatively. He’s not supposed to have any trouble with the distance as a half-brother to Americanrevolution, and his speed figures are right in line with those of the main players.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:41 PM
2022 Santa Anita Handicap Cheat Sheet: Get to Know the Horses
Racing
March 2nd, 2022 by Patrick Reed
Saturday’s $650,000, Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino is an important early-season test at Santa Anita Park for older horses on the road to the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Oct. 5 at Keeneland.
The 1 ¼-mile Big ’Cap is one of the most prestigious races in California and has been since it was first held in 1935, with winners including Seabiscuit, Round Table, Hill Rise, Nodouble, Ack Ack, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, John Henry (twice), Alysheba, Best Pal, Tiznow, Lava Man (twice), Game On Dude (three times), Shared Belief, and Accelerate.
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Read on for information on all eight Big ’Cap starters.
Eclipse Sportswire
1. Spielberg (8-1 morning line odds)
Jockey: Abel Cedillo
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owners: Golconda Stables, Madaket Stables, SF Racing, Siena Farm, Starlight Racing and Robert Masterson
Career record: 11 starts – 3 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $475,900
Earnings per start: $43,264
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103
Pedigree: Union Rags – Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike
Age: 4
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker/closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Spielberg was one of the most highly regarded 2-year-olds on the California circuit a year and a half ago, when he finished in the top three in two Grade 1 stakes and closed out 2020 with a nose win in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. It’s fair to say that he peaked early, though, as he’s only won one of five starts since then and was removed from the Triple Crown trail after finishing a well-beaten eighth in last year’s Curlin Florida Derby. Spielberg has performed respectably in his two starts so far at age 4, winning a one-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Santa Anita on Jan. 14 and then running fourth behind Express Train in the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on Feb. 22. Overall, this $1 million dollar purchase appears best-suited to racing at distances a mile or shorter, and as such he should be a longshot in Saturday’s 1 ¼-mile Big ’Cap. Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race five times: General Challenge (2000); Misremembered (2010); and with front-running Game On Dude in 2011, 2013, and 2014.
Nikki Sherman/EQUI-PHOTO
2. Why Why Paul Why (6-1)
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Owner: JKX Racing
Career record: 19 starts – 6 wins – 5 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $196,178
Earnings per start: $10,325
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 108
Pedigree: Archarcharch – Precious Beauty, by Whywhywhy
Age: 5
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Notable achievements and interesting facts: This mysteriously-named horse (who is Paul, and what did he do to cause such distress?) is also an intriguing lunch-pail longshot contender in the Big ’Cap. He makes his first start in California for new trainer Mike McCarthy after racking up five wins in seven starts for trainer Penny Pearce on the East Coast. Those wins came after Why Why Paul Why was claimed out of a race at Churchill Downs in May 2021 when he finished sixth, and it’s fair to say he validated that decision and then some as his five subsequent wins – all at Parx Racing in races at a mile or longer – were by a combined 24 ½ lengths. His most recent victory came in the listed Kris Kringle Stakes at Parx, where he earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure, and he followed that with a good second-place effort in the Jazil Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 22 (104 figure) before moving to the West Coast. Why Why Paul Why is stepping up in class – big-time – but his recent speed figures are competitive with most of his Santa Anita Handicap foes and Juan Hernandez, currently ranked second in wins and earnings among jockeys at Santa Anita, picks up the mount. He prefers to race on or near the early lead, so expect him to be a pace factor at the very least. Hernandez rode Express Train to a runner-up finish in in last year’s Big ’Cap, and McCarthy-trained Independence Hall finished fourth.
Eclipse Sportswire
3. Warrant (4-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Twin Creeks Racing Stables
Career record: 8 starts – 3 wins – 3 seconds – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $649,700
Earnings per start: $81,213
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Pedigree: Constitution – Whisper Number, by First Samurai
Age: 4
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Warrant comes into Saturday’s race as an accomplished, lightly raced colt with plenty of upside. He did not race at age 2 and broke his maiden in his second 2021 start and was then patiently developed by Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox over the spring and summer, eventually winning both the Texas Derby at Lone Star Park and the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park (he also finished second in two other stakes races). In his first start at age 4, he was outclassed by both Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon but finished a clear third in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22. There don’t appear to be any horses comparable with those two runners in the Big ’Cap with the possible exception of Express Train, which means Warrant has a chance to score a top-level win if he can summon a career-best effort. He’s a must use in exacta and trifecta tickets with Santa Anita’s leading rider Flavien Prat getting aboard for the first time. Prat finished fourth in last year’s edition aboard Independence Hall.
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4. Soy Tapatio (20-1)
Jockey: Diego Herrera
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Owner: Mercado Racing
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $101,480
Earnings per start: $16,913
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 106
Pedigree: Not This Time – Rum Punch, by Street Hero
Age: 4
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Another intriguing contender, this gelded son of hot, young sire Not This Time makes his stakes debut in a historic Grade 1 event Saturday after posting back-to-back wins in 1 1/16-mile races at Santa Anita over the past couple of months. Soy Tapatio did not make his career debut until November of last year and went winless in four quick starts to close out 2021, but he came back to break his maiden by 6 ¼ lengths on Jan. 8 and then post a one-length win in an allowance-optional claiming race just 15 days ago on Feb. 18. The quick turnaround is a sign of confidence from trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Mercado Racing, and an acknowledgment that this year’s Big ’Cap lineup might not be exactly world-beating. Diego Herrera has been in the irons for both of Soy Tapatio’s wins, and it will be interesting to see how the 17-year-old apprentice rides him Saturday, as the gelding broke his maiden in front-running fashion but won his allowance with an off-the-pace rally that netted a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure. O’Neill won back-to-back Big ’Caps in 2006 and 2007 with California-bred claimer-turned-powerhouse Lava Man.
Eclipse Sportswire
5. American Theorem (12-1)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: George Papaprodromou
Owner: Kretz Racing
Career record: 8 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $169,267
Earnings per start: $21,258
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110
Pedigree: American Pharoah – Mighty Renee, by Maria’s Mon
Age: 5
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: American Theorem figures to be one of the higher-odds horses in Saturday’s Big ’Cap coming off of a last-place effort in the Feb. 5 Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita, where he finished 13 ¼ lengths behind Express Train. In his defense, he encountered significant traffic trouble on the first turn of the 1 1/8-mile San Pasqual, losing momentum twice as other horses, including Express Train, moved in front of him to secure tactical position. In his start prior to the San Pasqual, he led from start to finish in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Santa Anita on Jan. 2, winning by 2 ¼ lengths under Smith. Look for “Big Money Mike” to put his mount into the race early and try to avoid any crowding. If he can get a clean trip, American Theorem could hang around long enough to fill out the superfecta or possibly trifecta, but that appears to be his ceiling. He is also entered in the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes Presented by FanDuel earlier on Santa Anita’s March 5 card, and may start in that seven-furlong race instead. Smith won the Santa Anita Handicap three years in a row: 2013 and 2014 aboard Game On Dude and 2015 on Shared Belief.
Eclipse Sportswire
6. Express Train (8-5)
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Owner: C R K Stable
Career record: 16 starts – 6 wins – 4 seconds – 3 thirds
Career earnings: $935,800
Earnings per start: $58,488
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110
Pedigree: Union Rags – I’m a Flake, by Mineshaft
Age: 5
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Express Train is a deserving favorite in the 2022 Santa Anita Handicap based on a career résumé that includes four Grade 2 victories. Two of those came in his starts leading up to Saturday’s race: a game nose win over top-class Hot Rod Charlie in the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita Dec. 26, when he overcame early crowding, and a dominant 3 ¼-length score in the San Pasqual Stakes on Feb. 22. In 2021, he won three of eight starts – two of them Grade 2 stakes – and came a half-length short of winning last year’s Santa Anita Handicap, taking a clear lead into the stretch but yielding to Idol. He sports a career record of three wins, three seconds, and two thirds in nine Santa Anita starts on the main track and, aside from a puzzling sixth-place finish as the favorite in last year’s TVG Pacific Classic, he’s hit the board in all of his appearances since making an unsuccessful turf start in October 2020. Express Train does have a habit of getting into trouble early in his races, but he’s also shown the ability to overcome that adversity and he’s matched up well with Hall of Fame jockey Victor Espinoza, who rode him for the first time in January’s San Antonio and has kept the mount since. Look for him to sit off of the early leaders on the backstretch while racing two or three wide before he makes a bid for the lead on the far turn. Espinoza won the 2004 Big ’Cap on Southern Image and won again in 2018 on Accelerate.
Eclipse Sportswire
7. Kiss Today Goodbye (15-1)
Jockey: Kyle Frey
Trainer: Eric Kruljac
Owner: John Sondereker
Career record: 17 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 3 thirds
Career earnings: $306,302
Earnings per start: $18,018
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 109
Pedigree: Cairo Prince – Savvy Hester, by Heatseeker
Age: 5
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: After a successful 3-year-old season in 2020 highlighted by a win in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes, Kiss Today Goodbye has struggled to make much of an impression over the past 14 months, going winless in five starts at age 4 and finishing a non-threatening fifth of six in the Feb. 5 San Pasqual Stakes, defeated 7 ¼ lengths by Express Train. He finished second by a half-length to Azul Coast in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes at Del Mar last November, but truthfully that’s been his only quality start over the time period, as he’s been walloped by open lengths in every other race and was eased when trying for a repeat win in the San Antonio Dec. 26. This horse is a grinder who is a threat to hit the board with a late rally when he’s at his best … but those efforts have been hard to find recently. It would be a surprise to see him in the mix Saturday, even competing against a modestly accomplished field.
Eclipse Sportswire
8. Stilleto Boy (5-2)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Ed Moger Jr.
Owner: Steve Moger
Career record: 13 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 5 thirds
Career earnings: $833,175
Earnings per start: $64,090
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 117
Pedigree: Shackleford – Rosie’s Ransom, by Marquetry
Age: 4
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Stilleto Boy shapes up as the main challenger to Express Train in the Big ’Cap as he ships back to his West Coast base after running a competitive third in the lucrative Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by 1/ST BET Jan. 29 at Gulfstream Park. In the Pegasus, he was never a threat to front-running winner Life Is Good (nor was any other horse), but he did loom up to challenge Knicks Go for runner-up honors in the stretch before losing that spot to the 2021 Horse of the Year by a length. Prior to the Pegasus, Stilleto Boy ran in three consecutive Grade 1s in California, finishing second to Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again Stakes in October, fifth behind Knicks Go in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic in November, and then third to the now-sidelined speedball Flightline in the seven-furlong Runhappy Malibu Stakes on Santa Anita’s Dec. 26 opening-day card. Truth be told, Stilleto Boy was soundly defeated in all three of those races, and he was in the Pegasus as well. On the positive side, there is no superstar entered in Saturday’s Big ’Cap, which equates to a dose of class relief for this son of Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford, and the 117 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in the Pegasus five weeks ago is tops in the field. He’s a pick-up-the-pieces, hard-trying type who should benefit from getting Hall of Famer John Velazquez aboard. As such, Stilleto Boy is a logical horse to use in exacta and trifecta boxes with Express Train and a longshot or two.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:41 PM
Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Saturday, March 5
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail
ITCHY FEET (Kelso, 2.40) bids to end a winless sequence stretching back two years in the bet365 Premier Chase — and his time looks to have arrived.
Given the eight-year-old was thought good enough to run in the Marsh Novices’ Chase as a novice at the Cheltenham Festival, the barren spell represents a disappointing return for his team who fit him with blinkers for the first time.
In fairness to Itchy Feet, he has become somewhat of a twilight horse since — not good enough to win a handicap off his current rating or win off level weights in Graded company.
There have also been occasions when he has not helped himself, such as at Lingfield last time where he produced a rather laboured effort before finally running on to finish within three lengths of Two For Gold. Hopefully the headgear will help the lack of motivation mid-race which has held back the progress of Itchy Feet.
Trainer Olly Murphy has found a good opportunity and sends the selection into the unknown by allowing him to tackle three miles over fences for the first time.
The evidence from Itchy Feet’s Lingfield effort in January over two miles and six furlongs on desperate ground suggests that may produce a more positive result.
KELSO
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
1.00 Genuflex
1.32 Richmond Lake
2.05 Famous Bridge
2.40 Itchy Feet
3.15 Buveur D’Air
3.43 Gold Des Bois
4.25 Lucky Flight (nb)
GIMCRACK
1.00 Genuflex
1.32 Bold Endeavour
2.05 Famous Bridge
2.40 Itchy Feet
3.15 Cormier
3.43 Dino Velvet
4.25 Here We Have It
NEWBURY
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
1.15 Kauto Riko
1.50 Dublin Four
2.27 Mark Of Gold
3.02 Lord Baddesley
3.37 Dorking Boy
4.12 Soldier Of Destiny
4.47 Weveallbeencaught
GIMCRACK
1.15 Saint Xavier
1.50 Senior Citizen
2.27 Irish Hill
3.02 Black Poppy
3.37 Bold Plan
4.12 Major Dundee
4.47 Captain Destiny
SOUTHWELL
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
5.00 Catch My Breath
5.30 Guilin
6.00 Custard The Dragon
6.30 My Dubawi
7.00 Prince Abu
7.30 Airshow
8.00 Chief White Face
8.30 Tiger Jet
GIMCRACK
5.00 Antagonize
5.30 Red Kite
6.00 Custard The Dragon
6.30 My Dubawi
7.00 Man Of Riddles
7.30 Airshow
8.00 Chief White Face
8.30 Tiger Jet
LINGFIELD
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
12.49 Away Wit Da Fairys
1.24 Surrey Princess
1.59 Sir Joseph Swan
2.34 Marion’s Boy
3.09 Hope Springs
3.50 Strong Power
4.19 Witch Hunter
4.54 Famous Star
GIMCRACK
12.49 Reticent
1.24 Blazer Two
1.59 Sir Joseph Swan
2.34 Mordred
3.09 The Defiant
3.50 One Night Stand
4.19 El Caballo (nb)
4.54 Famous Star
Newmarket – 2.34 Obsidian Knight (nb); 4.19 Canonized (nap).
DONCASTER
ROBIN GOODFELLOW
1.45 Byzantine Empire
2.20 Get A Tonic
2.55 The Big Bite (nap)
3.30 Storm Control
4.05 Sultans Pride
4.40 Ask The Doc
5.15 Kentanddover
GIMCRACK
1.45 Universal Folly
2.20 Get A Tonic (nap)
2.55 Cedar Hill
3.30 Le Milos
4.05 Imphal
4.40 Silver Flyer
5.15 Theatre Man
Northerner – 4.05 Silva Eclipse (nb)
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:42 PM
Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, March 5
Posted on March 4, 2022 by David Aragona
RACE 8: AMERICAN GENTLEMAN (#7)
Trash Talker could attract some support in this spot as he steps up in class to face N1X company. This isn’t the strongest race for the level, but it’s still a tougher field than Trash Talker defeated last time when he got loose on the front end here two weeks ago. He’s capable of running some competitive speed figures when things go his way, but he figures to get some early pressure here from Bustin Shout. I don’t trust him, and instead prefer horses that have competed against tougher fields at this level. That includes all three horses exiting the seventh race on Feb. 5. Castle Chaos is the one that figures to garner the most attention from that spot after finishing well to get up for third behind runaway winner Southern District. He got a little shuffled back on the turn, but that actually worked out for him because it allowed his rider to wheel him outside to the best part of the track. The inside was not the place to be on Feb. 5, as all of the best running was down out in the middle of the racetrack. For that reason, I want to give a shot to American Gentleman coming out of that race. A mile is probably too far for him anyway, but he was forced to gravitate towards the inside once he inherited the lead coming around the far turn, and he understandably faded late. I like the turnback in distance, and thought that he ran particularly well two back when closing after a wide trip to get up to win over Trash Talker. That’s proven to be a strong race, as the 5 runners who finished directly behind American Gentleman have returned to improve their speed figures in their next starts.
RACE 9: VENTI VALENTINE (#4)
Radio Days has been well-meant right from the start. She got bet down to favoritism in her career debut and didn’t disappoint. She then won as easily as could be over this track in December before tackling stakes foes in Florida. While she lost the G3 Forward Gal as the 3-5 favorite, she got bumped back to last at the start while the winner enjoyed a soft front-running trip. She’s always been cut out to go this far, and is consistently run the fastest speed figures, though it’s not as if she has a massive edge over this field. I expect her to be a very short price given the general hype around her, and I’m not sure her chances of winning are commensurate with heavy favoritism, though I do think she’s the horse to beat. Among the logical alternatives, I’m most against Magic Circle. She does figure to have a pace advantage, but I’m not thrilled her last race, in which she rode a rail bias and wasn’t able to improve on her top speed figure even with that boost. I prefer the two fillies drawn directly to her inside, and I’ll let price be my guide. I made Venti Valentine my top pick, since I do think she’s the second most likely winner. She was nearly perfect last year, beating NY-breds in her first couple of starts before just missing in the G2 Demoiselle. I thought that was a very game effort, in which she battled back valiantly after getting bumped in midstretch. She has been training in Florida through the winter and has looked strong in recent works, though there is a gap in her February training. The Jorge Abreu barn has been quiet lately, but that could just mean he’s gearing up with a spring push, which could kick off here. The other horse that I want to use is Morning Matcha. She’s run well in both of her local starts despite settling for second each time. Though she was unable to reel in Magic Circle last time, she was wide against the rail bias for the second half of that race. Turning back to the one-turn mile should suit her deep-closing style, though there isn’t much pace signed on.
RACE 10: BOLD JOURNEY (#8)
There is a ton of early speed signed on in this Gotham, which could force the hand of Dean’s List most of all. This runner has to be ridden aggressively as he ships up from Florida and stretches out from a pair of 6-furlong events. I like the tenacity that this colt displayed last time beating the talented Dean Delivers, and he does have a pedigree to suggest that a mile should be within his scope. Pletcher doesn’t have particularly strong stretch-out statistics, and the early pace pressure could be his undoing. The logical horse to beat from a trip standpoint is Morello. He’s one of the few major contenders who has shown the ability to pass horses and finish strongly. I like the way he overcame a poor start in his career debut, and he stepped forward from a speed figure standpoint in the Jimmy Winfield last time. The problem is that he just seems a little too obvious, and could be overbet for that reason. The short price that I don’t want is Rockefeller. I thought this horse was fortunate when he won the Nashua two back, and I didn’t like his effort in the Sham last time when barely holding second despite getting a perfect stalking trip. My top pick is Bold Journey. My initial reaction to his last race was that he may not way to go this far, but a closer look at the TimeformUS Pace Figures for the Gander Stakes reveals that he made a significant middle move to break the race open. He paid the price for that early acceleration in deep stretch. This time I think he’s going to be ridden a bit more conservatively. He’s not supposed to have any trouble with the distance as a half-brother to Americanrevolution, and his speed figures are right in line with those of the main players.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:42 PM
The Jury: Bets and fades for Mar. 5TwinSpires Staff
March 4th, 2022
The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on an action-packed weekend that includes four Kentucky Derby (G1) preps, three Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps, and a variety of graded action for older horses on both dirt and turf.
Who is your best bet?
KR: The morning-line favorite in Saturday's Davona Dale (G2), #3 Girl with a Dream (3-1), doesn't strike me as one looking for the step up to a mile. Even if she isn't softened up by a longshot pace rival, she's facing several intriguing opponents poised to pounce. Among them is #6 Cocktail Moments, who reverts to one turn after a sneaky third in the Untapable S. at Fair Grounds.
VH: Although the class of field in the Buena Vista (G3) at Santa Anita, I'm not convinced that morning-line favorite #10 Going to Vegas (3-1) is as effective going a mile. Like last year, when she finished fourth in this race, this comeback looks like more of a stepping stone toward longer races later in the meet and in the year. Nine-to-10 furlongs proved her sweet spot last term when taking three graded stakes, including the Rodeo Drive (G1).
What else is worth noting?
JS: I've been underwhelmed by the lower Brisnet Speed ratings earned by Kentucky Derby contenders over the last couple of months, and none of the starters in Saturday's Fountain of Youth (G2) has registered a triple-digit figure this year. That adds anticipation to the seasonal debuts of juvenile graded winners #9 High Oak and #6 Rattle N Roll. Last seen romping in October's Breeders' Futurity (G1), Rattle N Roll is more accomplished, and will be a shorter price in the Fountain of Youth, but late runners are at a severe disadvantage going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream. And with the April 9 Blue Grass (G1) being the main goal, Kenny McPeek won't have Rattle N Roll fully cranked. High Oak, who earned an excellent 97 Speed rating when posting a smashing win in the Saratoga Special (G2) last August but is unraced since exiting a fourth in the Hopeful (G1) with an injury, is more of a midpack stalker, and he needs to run well to prove he belongs at this level. Bill Mott, who opted for the Fountain of Youth over the one-turn Gotham (G3), isn't messing around, putting multiple five-furlong bullet works into High Oak, and the bay colt is eligible to outrun his 8-1 morning line odds.
KS: Gulfstream's interest on Saturday extends beyond the stakes action. Triple Crown winner Justify's half-brother, #7 Stage Raider, could kick off a productive four-year-old campaign in the eighth race, and a couple of seven-furlong maidens for sophomores have potential. The second race for fillies includes a few Kentucky Oaks nominees, and in the fourth, #2 Town Branch hopes to be an opening act for his full brother – #3 Speaker's Corner, the morning-line favorite in the Gulfstream Park Mile.
VH: I have a frustrating tendency to occasionally being ahead of the curve on some horses, backing them before they turn in a peak performance one or more starts later. One recent example was my selection of Cavalry Charge in a stakes at Fair Grounds in January in which he finished up the track, but followed up with a 35-1 shocker in a Grade 3. Needless to say, I didn't back him in the latter. This is my long-winded way of saying that I'll be interested to see the progression on Saturday of a pair of horses I endorsed on the Pegasus World Cup Turf card in late January. Both will be making their second starts off layoffs. #6 Gift List figures to be a shorter price this time around in the Honey Fox than she was in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G3), but #3 Glynn County figures much longer than 5-1 in the Mac Diarmida (G2) following a fifth-place run in the W.L. McKnight (G3).
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:42 PM
Aqueduct Picks: Gotham S. Saturday on March 5
By J.N. Campbell
Aqueduct Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022
Race 1: 5-1-7-6
Race 2: 4-2-6-3
Race 3: 3-5-1-4
Race 4: 9-3-1-7
Race 5: 4-1-6-5
Race 6: 6-3-2-4
Race 7: 2-1-8-6
Race 8: 5-7-1/1A-6
Race 9: 2-5-6-4
Race 10: 9-5-10-8
**Most Likely Winner: Officiating #3 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Bustin Shout #5 (Race 8)**
Most Likely Winner: (Race 3: Officiating #3, 3/1):
This 4-yr-old by Blame has some major ability and should give the rest of this field in the Grade 3 Tom Fool, a run for their money. Trained by the expansive-minded Saffie Joseph, he is looking to upset last year’s winner (who has returned), in Rob Atras’ Chateau #5. I think he has more than just a chance to do it because this sprint/router should enjoy the cutback after he ran 3rd in the Fred Hooper (G3) down at Gulfstream on the Pegasus WC undercard. I am not all that sure this is a tougher spot than that one … especially since this is only a 5-horse field. Manny Franco just needs to keep this one close (maybe 2-3 off the lead), and I think Joseph’s entry can make a go of this one. Looking back at his score in the Mr. Prospector (G3) … that bodes well, shipping up to New York. Joseph … his reach is growing.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #3
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Bustin Shout #5, 5/1):
I want to take a shot with this Bruce Levine-trained speedster because he might be sitting on go. He is one of those “house” horses that stays around during the winter months. With some early foot as an advantage, he might be able to take advantage of a favorable pace scenario that could develop. During last year’s Meet, he was solid at this exact level, and I believe that Trevor McCarthy can guide him to victory. The key will be the middle portion of this race. Move too early … he will use up his gas. Move too late … and there will be just too much ground to make up. Levine is a crafty fellow, and I am hoping this son of Bustin Stones is ready to go on Saturday.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 Mile, Gotham Stakes (G3), $300k, 3):
Like most turfwriting pundits, this is the week where I am wishing that the New York Racing Association would get their Kentucky Derby Series in gear when it comes to distances. I have no clue why the Remsen and the Withers Stakes are 1 1/8th? Then the Gotham comes around and the participants are forced to race along a 1-turn mile. It gets better … the Wood Memorial, which was dropped to a G2 a few years ago, is 1 1/8th … hmm … Come on NYRA! You guys have panache … don’t you? I digress … Coming into this G3, the Gotham S., we have a field of 10 that will be in search of Derby “Points” … 50-20-10-5 … to the top-4 … I mentioned earlier in the week, that barring some unforeseen alteration, I would be backing Steve Asmussen’s Morello #9. I stand by that selection … This colt by Classic Empire is not only well-bred, but in a pair of races at Aqueduct he was just magnificent. Peaking at the proper time, the step-up in class in the Jimmy Winkfield $150k was impressive. He cruised down the lane to a score by 5-lengths. Moving up to a mile is not an issue, and I fully expect Jose Lezcano to make a move by the turn, and throttle up. Using him on top is a must. The real question for me is what to do about Bob Baffert’s entry, Rockefeller #10. Winner in the Nashua (G3) two-back, he then tried to make the front in the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, and could not keep pace with stablemate Newgrange. Now traveling “Back East,” with T-Mac aboard, he is going to try and make amends. I honestly do not think he has the ability to win in this spot. Still, this is Baffert, so using him is a must. As for one other entry, I particularly like Todd Pletcher’s Dean’s List #5. Here is a colt by Speightstown that might be better suited as a sprinter … His talent is undeniable, but he is a need-the-lead-type, and we don’t know how far he can go. Baffert v. Pletcher v. Asmussen … what a trio! Here is the bet …
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 5/9/10
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:42 PM
Oaklawn Picks: DiVito's long shot Mojo Man on March 5
By J.N. Campbell
Oaklawn Park Picks - Saturday, March 5, 2022
Race 1: 6-2-4-5
Race 2: 4-1-3-7
Race 3: 7-9-4-6
Race 4: 6-1-11-4
Race 5: 6-8-7-5
Race 6: 4-8-1-7
Race 7: 9-7-2-8
Race 8: 1-5-6-8
Race 9: 9-6-3-8
Race 10: 8-3-5-11
**Most Likely Winner: Connie K #4, 5/2 (Race 6) And Gar Hole #9, 2/1 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Mojo Man #1 (Race 8)**
Most Likely Winners: (Race 6: Connie K #4, 5/2) and (Race 9: Gar Hole #9, 2/1)
The Downthedustyroad Breeders’ S. $150k and the Nodouble Breeders’ S. $150k are for Arkansas breds, and let’s face it, there is really only 1 horse in each race that is worth considering. Randy Morse’s Connie K #4 is just a monster, and John Ortiz’s Gar Hole #9 might be the best AR bred ever … I know! I am sure that both of these entries will get hammered at the windows because they have a burgeoning fan base. It is deserved. Maybe the play is to tote watch on Saturday … see if you could get 4/5 on either of them. That would be a gift, in my estimation.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4 in R6, #9 in R9
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Mojo Man #1, 12/1):
Outside of the pair of ARK “Non-G” races, this one, an ALLW101k, could be a “feature” on any card. It has a nice group of older males that will be blowing and going down the backstretch. Oaklawn recently upped its purses in this category, and it is just another reason why they are the best of the best … I am going to make a bold statement in this spot, and go all in on a runner that I think is classy and ready to fire. I was behind Jimmy DiVito’s Royal Daaher a couple of weeks ago, and I think his 7-yr-old gelding is in a similar spot. Whether he gets bet down from 12/1 is a question, but I don’t think that will happen. Most of the money here is going to flow towards Ron Moquett’s Seven Nation Army #5 and Cip Contreras’ Home Base #8. Don’t get me wrong … those are fine choices, but DiVito has some tricks up his sleeve. This seasoned runner is dropping down from a much tougher spot. The son of Stay Thirsty might not get Francisco Arrieta in the irons, but having Ricardo Santana aboard is not too shabby a replacement.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Win #1
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 5: Dirt, 6F, St. ALLW10k, 4+):
One of the races that I think is a major value spot is this “Starter.” As I have mentioned before, these can be very difficult, but strong opinions will out. Thumbing through the form, look for Cipriano Contreras to have the favorite when the tote starts to flicker. At 5/2, I suppose One for Richie #7 should get the nod. After all, he has a pair of ALLW Co. races under his saddle. He won the 1st, and ended up 2nd by a whisker … The excellent Francisco Arrieta gets the call once again, and if he wins the break, it could be over in the initial furlong. I am willing to take this one on, because he just looks to be way too short of a price. Instead, I much prefer an 8-yr-old from Karl Broberg’s midst—Win With Pride #6. I interviewed one of the 501 Boys for a “Claiming Game” piece I did back in January, and they have such passion. This gelding by Distorted Humor was a regular up at NYRA last year, and he came to Oaklawn for his last race off-the-claim. That was a Clm16k against the likes of Town Champ and Storm Advisory. With Ramon Vazquez aboard, he rode the rail to a nice score. Now in this spot, Broberg goes with David Cabrera. The Texas-based conditioner has superb numbers with 2nd-timers like this, and he should be a great price at 5/1. A couple of other entries that I want to use are Norm McKnight’s Seau #8 (also by Distorted H.), and Ingrid Mason’s Tappin Fora Dance #5. Both of these are strong sprinters that could help us finish off our ticket. This race is going to be an absolute joy to watch … and bet on!
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta, 6 w 5/7/8 w 5/7/8 w 5/7/8
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:43 PM
Oaklawn Park Selections for March 5, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks
By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Mar 4th, 2022 10:10pm PST
Oaklawn Park Selections for March 5, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks
We have a stakes day on Saturday, with Santa Anita Park the place to be this weekend. There are nine racecourses in the US with stakes races today.
Industry Leading 9% Cashback!
If you want to disclude Fonner Park with their mini $15,000 stakes race then understood. From a $15,000 stakes event at Fonner Park to the $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap (Gr. 1), there is action on the card.
There is one Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race on Saturday. That is at Santa Anita Park as well, with the running of the $400,000 San Felipe Stakes (Gr. 2.). There are 50-20-10-5 points available in the San Felipe.
There are two $150,000 stakes races at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. We’re off to Oaklawn first on Saturday. They have a total of $683,000 in prize money on the card. Head below for our best Oaklawn Park picks on March 5, 2022.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 4
(1) Knight’s Cross
+600 (6/1)
(2) Hardly a Secret
+300 (3/1)
(3) Kierkegaard
+1200 (12/1)
(4) Gambler
+1500 (15/1)
(5) Splash for Gold
+800 (8/1)
(6) Eagle Pass
+400 (4/1)
(7) King Ford
+2000 (20/1)
(8) Private Lake
+3000 (30/1)
(9) That’s What I Say
+3000 (30/1)
(10) Sick Silver
+1000 (10/1)
(11) Jack’s Advantage
+800 (8/1)
(13) Dr. Forman
+350 (7/2)
(14) Love Nest
+600 (6/1)
Post Time: 2:33 p.m. CST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Purse:$26,000
Race 4 is a 1 1/16 mile race for a $26,000 race at Oaklawn Park. Considerations should be made for Eagle Pass and Hardly a Secret.
Eagle Pass is 9 for 34 and looking for better recently after dropping grades. He finished 6th in three straight attempts, most recently on February 19 for a $26,000 prize.
Eagle Pass requires more to be competitive, but the talent is there. This isn’t the toughest field despite remaining in the same class. It could present an opportunity for Eagle Pass to steal one.
Hardly a Secret should be a tough out for all involved in Race 4. He is 13 for 53 in his career and finished 3rd, 6th, 5th in the last three events.
In his most recent attempt, Hardly a Secret was 5th on February 18 in a $29,000 assignment. He showed 3rd on December 4 for $42,000.
Hardly a Secret is more than capable at the $26,000 level. In a race where Hardly a Secret is getting good odds, the No. 2 must be considered.
The Bet
(2) HARDLY A SECRET
+300
Place Bet Now!
Race 5
(1) Press Snooze
+1200 (12/1)
(2) Wrongwayhighway
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Mr. Ankeny
+1500 (15/1)
(4) Don’t Forget
+400 (4/1)
(5) Tappin Fora Dance
+600 (6/1)
(6) Win With Pride
+500 (5/1)
(7) One for Richie
+250 (5/2)
(8) Seau
+450 (9/2)
(9) Bachelor Pad
+500 (5/1)
Post Time: 3:03 p.m. CST
Distance: 6 Furlongs
Purse:$29,000
Race 5 is a 6-furlong event with $29,000 in prize money. This one should be between Tappin Foradance and One for Richie at the wire.
Tappin Foradance is 4 for 22 and in good shape going into Saturday. The gelding finished in the top-3 in six of his previous seven attempts.
He is looking for his second straight win after scoring on February 12. Tappin Foradance beat Secretary at War by 2 ¾ lengths for $28,000. Not bad after showing 3rd in a $32,000 assignment.
One for Richie is 8 for 36 in his career with some momentum recently. He is 4th, 1st, 2nd in his previous three and top-2 in six of his last eight races.
One for Richie got in by 3 lengths in a $28,000 event over American Joey. Nice attempt and just missed out by 1 ¾ lengths in a $35,000 race on February 21.
Back down to $29,000, look at One for Richie to be a leading candidate to win.
The Bet
(7) ONE FOR RICHIE
+250
Place Bet Now!
Race 6 – Downthedusty Breeders’ Stakes
(1) Richness
+500 (5/1)
(2) Unbridled Twister
+800 (8/1)
(3) Starrgarita
+2000 (20/1)
(4) Connie K
+250 (5/2)
(5) Hillary G
+400 (4/1)
(6) Lady Astrid
+1200 (12/1)
(7) Too Pretty
+450 (9/2)
(8) Kaboom Baby
+300 (3/1)
Post Time: 3:33 p.m. CST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$150,000
The $150,000 Downthedusty Breeders’ Stakes goes for 6 furlongs on the dirt. Kaboom Baby and Connie K should be on point in this one.
Kaboom Baby is 2 for 7 in her career and finished in the top-3. The filly finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd in her previous four outings.
In her most recent attempt, Kaboom Baby showed 3rd on February 12 for a $100,000 purse. This was after Kaboom Baby placed 2nd behind Melting Snow by a half-length for $100,000.
Connie K is 3 for 7 and looking for a hat-trick. She is 6th, 1st, 1st in her last three attempts. In her last race, Connie K defeated Big On Broadway by 7 ¾ lengths for a $100,000 purse. Impressive.
This was after Connie K had a 1 ¾ length win in a $72,000 race on January 8. She is in strong form and Saturday looks like another good day for a win.
The Bet
(4) CONNIE K
+250
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:43 PM
Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
March 5, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a compact 8-race card scheduled with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 5
1-Illustrate (7-1)-This mare starts slow and likes to grind its way around. Did pace a .57 last half on 2-26 and the pace could be more lively tonight.
3-Lady In Fashion (5/2)-Ships back from MVR and Seekman steers. Has good speed and could be forwardly placed. Is 0-4 at Haw but has finished 2nd three times and should be in the hunt with this post draw.
5-Dilly Dilly Time (2-1)-Drew off by 4 in last to beat this kind. Team Leonard entry can stay good for another.
Race 6
4-Intoview (9/2)-This is the 4th start in the Finn barn for this 11-year-old and had excuses in the last 2 races. Will take a swing here in a race without a standout.
5-Rosey Time (5/2)-Has been close in the last 3 starts and figures to be in the mix. Using but not embracing the short price.
7-Finleys Filly (7/2)-Recent form has been dull but this is a soft spot. Leonard should be more aggressive versus this crew.
Race 7
7-Rollin Coal (6-1)-This mare can win with a top effort and a sharp steer. The price should be right and there should be an honest pace. Franco needs to be in striking range as this 7-year-old can roll late in a big way.
10-Maggie Rhee (9/2)-Has been an odds-on choice in the last 2 and has burned money. Made a rare break in last but comes right back. Warren owns, trains, and drives so will trust this mare will be ready to go and the price should be much better tonight.
Race 8
5-Fox Valley Bristol (3-1)-Has raced well in both Haw starts and comes off a win from post 8. Likes the Stickney oval and has hit the board in 10 of 17 with 4 pictures.
7-Ideal's Nicole (6-1)-Comes off a sharp with versus this kind and Bates takes a seat looking for another win. Looks like a main player with a fair trip.
9-Fox Valley Lolo (9/2)-Lost to #7 in last after taking the lead down the lane. The price should be much better than 3/2 this time and Leonard should be rolling late.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,3,5/4,5,7/7,10/5,7,9
Total Bet=$27
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:43 PM
Coast-to-Coast Dirt Pick 5
March 5, 2022 | By Frank Carulli
COAST-TO-COAST DIRT PICK 5 ANALYSIS
Saturday, March 5, 2022
The Coast-to-Coast Dirt Pick 5 features four Grade II stakes and the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap to close the sequence. Total purse money for the five races is $1.875 million. A winning $1 wager on the Dirt Pick 5 could also produce a blockbuster payout with 44 entrants in the five races and a low 12% wager takeout. Here’s an early look at the action:
Leg A (Santa Anita, race 4, 4:28 EST) -- SHOOTERS SHOOT settled into a 3-wide stalking trip after he was crowded between rivals early in the G-III Palos Verdes at 6F. He ranged up into a contested pace for the stretch drive, made a run at the stubborn 9-to-5 winner and earned the top speed figure of his career by finishing second by a neck. He gets ample pace to run at in the G-II San Carlos today and an extra furlong to cover in his second start off the claim. CEZANNE finished 2-3/4 lengths behind Shooters Shoot off a nine-month layoff. He was put to a drive on the turn and no serious threat as the odds-on favorite, but the lightly-raced 5-year-old finished well. He won a 6-1/2F, G-III stakes in his only start last year, running away from speedball BRICKYARD RIDE, who starts from the rail in his San Carlos title defense.
LEG B (Gulfstream Park, race 10, 4:40 EST) -- SPEAKER’S CORNER set a faster pace than it visually appeared in the hand-timed, G-III Fred Hooper Stakes at one mile. He came under siege on the turn, but dug in resiliently to hold off late-running FEARLESS, a multiple graded stakes winner and proven miler. COLLABORATE caught the eye in a 6-1/2F allowance victory off a five-month layoff. He was blocked behind a wall of horses before exploding through a seam in early stretch to win going away in mid-track.
LEG C (Santa Anita, race 6, 5:30 EST) -- FORBIDDEN KINGDOM, troubled at the start in both 2-year-old stakes tries last year, ran to his workouts and sped off to a clean, 7F victory in the G-II San Vicente in his seasonal debut. Trainer Richard Mandella excels on the sprint-to-route and second-off-the-layoff angles. No one else in the G-II San Felipe field has won a stakes on the main track, but DOPPELGANGER was favored against Forbidden Kingdom after an impressive debut win and has fired three bullet workouts since then. His stablemate, ARMAGNAC, is the only entrant to win at today’s distance, going wire-to-wire with first-time Lasix. WORSE READ SANCHEZ showed marked improvement with blinkers on the turf, albeit in state-bred competition, and makes the ticket at 20-1 on the morning line.
LEG D (Gulfstream Park, race 12, 5:42 EST) -- On January 28, HIGH OAK was 150-1 at a major Las Vegas sportsbook to win the Kentucky Derby; today, he is 27-1, with only 10 runners at lower odds. Someone likes what they’ve seen, so follow the money as High Oak, one of two graded stakes winners in today’s Fountain Of Youth Stakes, makes his seasonal debut. RATTLE AND ROLL did just that when last seen winning the G-I Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, saving ground to the final turn and inhaling the leaders with a 4-wide sweep to command at today’s distance.
LEG E (Santa Anita, race 11, 8:00 EST) -- WARRANT was unraced as a 2-year-old, but the now 4-year-old multiple stakes winner has progressed steadily for Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. He was no match for multi-millionaire Mandaloun and five-time, Grade I-placed Midnight Bourbon in the Grade III Louisiana Stakes January 22 at the Fair Grounds, but he is a major player with continued improvement and the track’s leading jockey, Flavien Prat, summoned to ride. EXPRESS TRAIN held a clear stretch lead in last year’s Big ‘Cap but settled for second, beaten a half-length. He added two more Grade II victories at Santa Anita to his resume since then, including a nose victory over G-I winner Hot Rod Charlie (4-14, $2.7 million) in the San Antonio Stakes. Looking for a longshot? Look no farther than WHY WHY PAUL WHY, who won 5 of 6 route races at Parx by a combined 24-1/2 lengths in the second half of last year and finished second in the 1-1/8-mile Jazil Stakes at Aqueduct, earning his fourth, 90-plus Beyer speed rating in his last five starts. His enters the barn of California-based trainer Michael McCarthy and is worth a price shot in his biggest class test to date.
Suggested Ticket:
Leg A: 4, 9
Leg B: 3, 4, 8
Leg C: 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg D: 6, 9
Leg E: 2, 3, 6
Cost for $1 ticket: $144
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:44 PM
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Fort Polk This looks like a pretty top heavy race with a pair of runners who figure to hit hard, but this mare might be the slight second choice, and she beat the likely chalk on the grass recently.
#6 Net a Bear Figure one of the top two will land this, but she figures to get bet a bit more and doesn't have to win this as the top choice brings competitive running lines. Beat her to score.
#4 Blessed Anna Tactical player should land a good trip with these, but her ceiling might be just a slight cut below the top pair in here. Figures for a piece, but guessing she'll have to settle underneath.
Race Summary Fort Polk and Net a Bear are both in good form right now, but the former may be a slightly better price and looks most likely to get the best of the chalk.
Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Magician Stone His only turf try produced a nice upset score at Arlington last summer, and I wonder if he can bounce back here after a dull stakes try on the main track last out. Interesting from close range.
#7 Dowagiac Chief He has been pretty tough outside of tougher stakes company in recent starts, and he has the right kind of pace to get in the mix early from this draw. That said, he'll get bet, and he might have some company near the top -- a concern for a guy who does his best work on the lead.
#2 Tommy Bee He just rolled a short bunch on the main track, but he has some okay back turf form that might make him a player here if he can transfer his sharp recent run back to this footing.
Race Summary Magician Stone might be the right kind of price to see if he can get a good first-over trip while trying two turns for the first time, and his pedigree suggests the turf may really end up being his home.
Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Who Took the Money Don't think this guy is going to get beat in this spot, and the price on the board will likely reflect that. He has handled many of these in recent starts and should get a decent pace to chase today.
#2 Behemah Star He has the right kind of positional pace to work out a trip that gives him first jump on the top choice, and he seems like a really solid riser after another good effort last time out. Solid underneath play in the exacta.
#7 Mangelsen Speed can be all or nothing, and he faded late when facing some of these in December. Still, he has that sharp pace and can get brave on occasion. One of the more logical potential upsetters.
Race Summary Who Took the Money looks tough at a short price, as there is enough pace in here to give him a chance from off the splits. I'll work to get Behemah Star in the exacta with the heavy chalk.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:44 PM
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Meadowlands - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 JUST N ACE Far back most of way, ran into stretch traffic, finished willingly.
#5 COOL BLUES MAN Gapped 3-deep on rail, angled to 3-path in early stretch, surged into photo-finish view.
#2 WINDSONG JACK Transition from half-mile ovals for hot barn, seeks 41st win.
Race Summary Just N Ace took back to seventh off the gate, was unhurried until the stretch, then was blocked with run while racing into a strong headwind. He gets Tetrick and is worth a win and place bet at an inflated price.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 EAST END Classy 9yo backed-pedaled two back but ran away from lesser in latest.
#1 CENTURY FURY Rallied for four seconds in a row, three at double-digit odds.
#4 PRICELESS BEACH Left too much work to do as the beaten fave on drop to this level.
Race Summary East End took money and backed up suddenly from a good striking position on the final turn two starts back. He re-awakened with a runaway win on the class drop and has plenty of back-class to take on better rivals tonight. Play an 8 with 1,4 with ALL trifecta.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 ARTISTIC PICK Holds tactical edge in pace-less race, price attached.
#2 HOOTER SHOOTER Picked up live cover, ran late scare into drifting winner.
#7 ATTHEBEACH HANOVER Finished ahead of top one, starts outside.
Race Summary Artistic Pick was no threat in the fastest division of the Pop Up series last week, but he figures to be put into play early in this spot and could factor at big odds despite a 1-for-24 record the last two years. Play a 1-2-7 exacta box.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:44 PM
Jeff Nahill’s Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, March 5
FIRST RACE: 9-8-12-7
SECOND RACE: 4-5-2-6
THIRD RACE: 1-8-5-3
FOURTH RACE: 4-9-3-7
FIFTH RACE: 10-5-7-4
SIXTH RACE: 3-5-6-2
SEVENTH RACE: 1-9-5-7
EIGHTH RACE: 11-4-10-2
NINTH RACE: 3-5-6-1
10TH RACE: 4-8-7-1
11TH RACE: 3-6-8-2 (BEST BET)
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:44 PM
Jeff Nahill’s Gulfstream Park (Races 5-13) opinions for Saturday, March 5 (Plus Gotham and Turfway races)
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 5: 6-5-2-7
RACE 6: 6-5-2-7
RACE 7: 2-9-6-8
RACE 8: 2-7-4-9 (BEST BET)
RACE 9: 9-7-3-11
RACE 10: 8-3-4-7
Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has 3 horses and Mike Maker has 2. Just great.
RACE 11: 1-8-5-7
This one is worse: Joseph has 5 horses and Todd Pletcher 3.
RACE 12: 8-4-6-3
RACE 13: 3-5-12-9
AQUEDUCT
RACE 10 (GOTHAM): 10-4-5-7
I don’t know if No. 7 Noneedtoworry (30-1) is good enough but he comes out of Withers, which produced last week’s Oaklawn bomber.
TURFWAY PARK
RACE 5 (Battaglia): 4-5-10-12
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:45 PM
Frank Sawyer Mar 05 '22, 5:10 PM in 1h
NBA | Kings vs Mavs
Play on: Mavs -7 -109 at BetCris
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 3/5:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday was with the Dallas Mavericks minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings. Dallas (38-25) has won five of their last six games with their 122-113 victory against Golden State as a 2-point favorite. The Mavericks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Sacramento (24-41) has won two of their last three games with their 115-112 victory at San Antonio as a 6.5-point underdog on Thursday. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Sacramento has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Take Dallas minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:45 PM
Stephen Nover Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | North Carolina vs Duke
Play on: North Carolina +11½ -110 at Mirage
Emotions are sure to run high at Cameron Indoor Stadium as this will be the final home game for Mike Krzyewski at Duke where he's been for the last 42 seasons.
But from a betting standpoint, I find this line to be inflated because of that.
What needs to be kept in mind is that Duke has won the ACC regular season title. The Blue Devils will be the No. 1 seed in the ACC Conference Tournament. What hasn't been determined is who will be the No. 2 seed? North Carolina is in the running for that.
The Tar Heels are in a good place right now emotionally and physically, winners of four in a row. They also have added revenge motivation for an 87-67 humiliating home loss to Duke a month ago. North Carolina was 3 1/2-point underdogs. Now look at the spread. So, yes, I'd say there's line inflation.
North Carolina's guards Caleb Love and R.J. Davis, who together produce nearly 30 points a game, missed a combined seven of eight shots from 3-point range in that game despite having good looks. I'm expecting better shooting from them. They'll be helped by Brady Manek, who is 21-for-39 (54%), from the field in his last three games and has hit eight shots from beyond the arc during this span.
Krzyzewski is going to be honored during a special pregame ceremony. Duke will be fired-up to win for him. But this also could be a distraction along with putting added pressure on the Blue Devils.
Bottom line, this line is inflated because of this. So I'm involved with the Tar Heels.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:45 PM
Brandon Lee Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
Play on: Vanderbilt +1½ -110 at Mirage
FREE PICK: Vanderbilt Commodores +1.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 705
I'll take my chances with Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Saturday. On paper it looks like both of these teams have really stumbled to the finish line. The Commodores are just 1-5 over their last 6 games and the Rebels are 1-7 in their last 8.
I just think for Vanderbilt it's been more about the schedule. Their largest loss during this run has been by 14 at Auburn. They only lost by 9 at Tennessee, by 2 at home to Alabama, by 5 at Miss St and by 4 to Florida.
As for Ole Miss, their downfall has really coincided with the loss of their best player, Daeshun Ruffin. While they do have a couple of OT losses to Florida and South Carolina, 4 of their last 6 losses have come by double-digits, including each of the last 3.
Vandy is also a team that has played well on the road in SEC play, covering 13 of their last 18 away from home in conference games. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after losing 5/6 of their last 7 games. Give m the Commodores +1.5!
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:46 PM
Dustin Hawkins Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Arkansas State vs Georgia State
Play on: Georgia State -3½ -110 at Mirage
1 Dimer on Georgia State -3½ -110
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:46 PM
Kyle Hunter Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Northern Colorado vs Montana State
Play on: Northern Colorado +6½ -110 at Mirage
*Free Play on Northern Colorado* The Montana State Bobcats have locked up the Big Sky Conference regular season title. Northern Colorado is in a 3 way tie for the second seed in the Big Sky Tournament. The Bears have a lot more to play for than Montana State in this one.
Northern Colorado has the best player on the floor in Daylen Kountz. He should be able to do some damage against a Montana State team that doesn't have any great shot blockers.
Northern Colorado is getting a couple too many points here given the situational spot.
Take Northern Colorado.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:46 PM
Cole Faxon Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Atlanta United vs Colorado Rapids
Play on: Atlanta United +280 at Mirage
FREE PLAY on Atlanta United +280
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:46 PM
ASA Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Northern Colorado vs Montana State
Play on: Northern Colorado +6 -110 at linepros
#699 ASA FREE PLAY ON Northern Colorado +6 over Montana State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is a much bigger game for Northern Colorado. A win here and they finish in 2nd place in the Big Sky tied with the winner of the Southern Utah vs Weber State game. Montana State, on the other hand, has already clinched the conference title and the #1 seed in the Big Sky tourney starting next week. The Bears have proven they can get it done on the road with a 7-2 record in conference play. The top 6 teams in this conference are Montana State, Weber State, Southern Utah, Northern Colorado, Eastern Washington, and Montana. The Bears are 5-0 SU on the road vs those teams with only 1 remaining and that’s tonight @ Montana State. They have a positive point differential of +5.5 PPG on the road in conference play. They just topped Montana on the road Thursday night and now make the short trip (200 miles) to Bozeman to face State 2 days later. That’s an EASY scheduling spot comparted to what Montana State has faced this week. The Bobcats already played Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday of this week so this will be their 4th game in 7 days. They just clinched the conference title on Thursday night so a letdown is in order. MSU is a solid 8-1 SU at home in Big Sky play but most of their wins have been tight with 6 of those 8 coming by 7 points or less. Northern Colorado can score points averaging a league high 81 PPG. They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. Laying 6 here is too many and we’ll grab the points.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:47 PM
Hunter Price Mar 05 '22, 6:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | DC United vs FC Cincinnati
Play on: DC United +125 at linepros
1* Free Pick on DC United +125
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:47 PM
Jeff Hochman Mar 05 '22, 7:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Bruins vs Blue Jackets
Play on: Bruins -1½ +135 at Mirage
1*Boston Bruins -1.5 (+135)
The Boston Bruins own a +327 shot differential this season, while Columbus is -323 this season. Columbus ranks dead last in shots against (1,930), thru games played Thursday. Columbus is just 2-5 SU when playing without rest this season. The Bruins have dominated teams on the second game of a back-to-back. The Bruins are ranked 4th in Face-off win percentage, while the Blue Jackets are ranked No. 17 this season. Boston wins 4-1!
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:47 PM
Marc Lawrence Mar 05 '22, 7:10 PM in 3h
NBA | Spurs vs Hornets
Play on: Spurs +4 -110 at Caesars
Play - San Antonio Spurs (Game 535).
Edges - Spurs: 100-76-1 ATS in non-division games with seams season revenge from a loss of 14 or more points … Hornets: 7-27 SU and 12-20-2 ATS in this series; and 1-5 ATS on Saturdays… With the Spurs playing with revenge from a 16-point home loss to Charlotte earlier this season, we recommend a 1* play on San Antonio. Thank you and good luck as always.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:47 PM
Sean Murphy Mar 05 '22, 8:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
Play on: UNDER 134½ -110
Saturday CBB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Texas A&M at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.
Both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately with Mississippi State having seen its last two games go 'over' the total and Texas A&M coming off four consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Mississippi State averages just 23 made field goals including only four made threes per game on the road this season. In their last five road games, the Bulldogs have knocked down only 19, 18, 21, 26, 19 and 19 field goals, scoring more than 65 points only once over that stretch. Here, they'll face a stingy Texas A&M defense that yields just 22 made field goals per game at home this season. The Aggies have shot the lights out in their last three contests (54% or better in all three games), fuelling their recent run of 'over' results. I do expect them to suffer from some regression here, and it's worth noting that they haven't been playing at an incredibly fast pace, attempting fewer than 59 field goals in each of their last five games. Take the under.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:47 PM
Jack Jones Mar 05 '22, 9:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | St. John's vs Marquette
Play on: Marquette -4 -110 at Caesars
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Marquette -4
This looks like a good spot to 'buy low' on the Marquette Golden Eagles. They have gone 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall to fall dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. I look for them to punch their ticket with a win and cover at home on Senior Day against St. John's.
The Golden Eagles saw all four of those losses come on the road. They are 12-3 at home this season and face a St. John's team that has struggled on the highway. The Red Storm are 4-6 in true road games this season with two of those wins coming against Georgetown and Butler.
St. John's is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games. The Red Storm are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread. St. John's is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.
The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Marquette Saturday.
Can'tPickAWinner
03-05-2022, 03:48 PM
AAA Sports Mar 05 '22, 10:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Flames vs Avalanche
Play on: Avalanche -145 at William Hill
1* FREE PLAY Avalanche.
The Flames are coming off a 5-4 OT loss at home to the lowly Canadiens, likley getting caught looking ahead to this much more difficult contest in Colorado. I think Calgary is going to suffer another letdown here too. The Flames are back at home against division rival Edmonton, setting this up as another potential look-ahead spot. The Avs are 23-3-1-1 at home and they'll be out to atone fora poor 2-1 loss at Arizona in their last outing. I think this is a reasonable price; consider Colorado!
AAA Sports
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