Saturday 4/9/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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AI Picks: Saturday's Kentucky Derby Preps

April 8, 2022

A trio of most-important Triple Crown preps fill the Saturday docket from California to Kentucky to New York. To assist your handicapping, top selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Aqueduct // Race 8 // 4:45 pm ET // $750,000 Grade 2 Wood Memorial // 1-1/8 miles

#1 Mo Donegal (5-2) // 31%W
#5 Morello (8-5) // 17%W
#6 Skippylongstocking (15-1) // 15%W
#3 Early Voting (5-2) // 13%W
#7 A.P.’s Secret (20-1) // 8%W
#4 Long Term (30-1) // 6%W
#8 Barese (8-1) // 5%W
#2 Golden Code (15-1) // 5%W

Keeneland // Race 9 // 5:10 pm ET // $1 million Grade 1 Blue Grass // 1-1/8 miles

#10 Smile Happy (9-5) // 30%W
#4 Zandon (5-2) // 17%W
#6 Emmanuel (9-2) // 13%W
#1 Commandperformance (12-1) // 10%W
#9 Rattle N Roll (8-1) // 6%W
#7 Golden Glider (20-1) // 5%W
#5 Volcanic (20-1) // 3%W
#12 Grantham (20-1) // 3%W
#2 Fenwick (20-1) // 3%W
#3 Trademark (30-1) // 3%W
#8 Ethereal Road (20-1) // 3%W
#11 Blackadder (20-1) // 3%W

Santa Anita // Race 6 // 5:45 pm ET // Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Derby // 1-1/8 miles

#6 Taiba (4-1) // 32%W
#3 Forbidden Kingdom (6-5) // 18%W
#4 Messier (1-1) // 18%W
#1 Happy Jack (20-1) // 11%W
#2 Armagnac (20-1) // 11%W
#5 Win The Day (20-1) // 10%W

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Jon White: Kentucky Derby Future Wager Analysis

April 7, 2022 | By Jon White

This week is your last chance to participate in Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).

Wagering in KDFW Pool 5 begins Thursday (April 7) at noon and concludes Saturday at 4:30 p.m., both ET. Keep in mind betting closes before the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby are run.

Pool 5 of the KDFW originally had been scheduled for last week, but Churchill officials made the decision to delay it by one week.

As usual with respect to the KDFW, Pool 5 consists of 23 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-olds” option.

Mike Battaglia has been making the official Kentucky Derby morning line going all the way back to 1974. This will be his 49th year in that role.

Battaglia also sets the morning line for the KDFW. He has pegged Epicenter as the 5-1 morning-line favorite in Pool 5, followed by Smile Happy at 6-1. Forbidden Kingdom, Messier and White Abarrio are next, each listed at 8-1.

The “all other 3-year-olds” option is 15-1 on Battaglia’s line.

As I have mentioned previously, what you generally want to do in future wagering is to take a swing at a possible big payoff with a horse at a really nice price. But as the Kentucky Derby gets closer, trying to find a worthwhile future bet becomes harder.

Take Simplification, for instance. He is 15-1 on Battaglia’s Pool 5 line. If you like Simplification, waiting until race day to bet him would seem the prudent way to go. Not only are you likely to get a price in that neighborhood of 15-1 on race day, the important difference is if he’s entered and doesn’t start, you get a refund. That’s not the case in future wagering.

One horse at the morning-line prices in KDFW Pool 5 that looks interesting to me is Japan’s Crown Pride at 50-1. If the UAE Derby winner stays anywhere around 50-1, I definitely will be putting some money on him. Considering Japan’s recent prowess in big races all over the globe, playing Crown Pride at around 50-1 does not seem to be a wacky idea. That’s a big enough of a price to go ahead and bet him despite not receiving a refund if it so happens that he doesn’t start.

Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 5 of the 2022 KDFW:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Barber Road (30-1)
2. Charge It (12-1)
3. Crown Pride (50-1)
4. Cyberknife (12-1)
5. Early Voting (20-1)
6. Emmanuel (20-1)
7. Epicenter (5-1)
8. Ethereal Road (50-1)
9; Forbidden Kingdom (8-1)
10. In Due Time (50-1)
11. Messier (8-1)
12. Mo Donegal (20-1)
13. Morello (20-1)
14. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)
15. Simplification (15-1)
16. Slow Down Andy (50-1)
17. Smile Happy (6-1)
18. Summer Is Tomorrow (50-1)
19. Tawny Port (50-1)
20. Tiz the Bomb (12-1)
21. White Abarrio (8-1)
22. Zandon (20-1)
23. Zozos (30-1)
24. “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (15-1)

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Race of the Week: G2 Royal Heroine at Santa Anita | Saturday

April 7, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Santa Anita Derby Day features several standout stars in stakes action across a fantastic day of racing, From Adare Manor in the Santa Anita Oaks to the Derby's 1-2 punch of Messier and Forbidden Kingdom, the road to Louisville across two divisions runs through Arcadia. The G2 $200,000 Royal Heroine for turf milers will be Race 7 on the 12-race program and kick off the Rainbow 6.

Horseplayers with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on win bets on the Santa Anita Derby if your selection finishes second or third. The same offer applies to Saturday's fellow Triple Crown preps, the Blue Grass at Keeneland and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

​Field Depth:
G1 winner GOING GLOBAL holds all the credentials in this field. JAVANICA, AVENUE DE FRANCE and PARK AVENUE are G3-placed. The bulk of GOING GLOBAL's races have been against then-3YOs, while PARK AVENUE and AVENUE DE FRANCE have been steadily facing elder stakes players and the class gap might be a bit closer than it appears.

Pace:
PARK AVENUE could be controlling speed and dangerous on the front end with only JAVANICA to worry about in a pressing role on paper. Deep closers will have their work cut out for them.

Our Eyes:
GOING GLOBAL wasn't herself in the off-the-turf G1 American Oaks, but you can't fault her connections for trying the dit when you're 4-5 in a G1. That was Dec. 26, and she's been freshened more than 3 months for this reappearance. She's raced only once against elders, and that ws a victory in the G2 Goldikova at Del Mar against a good group that included Zofelle and Princess Grace (who was favored). It's the only time in her last 6 in which she wasn't the public choice; but that won't be the case Saturday. GOING GLOBAL will be 3-5 or less. Umberto Rispoli replaces Flavien Prat, who has departed for the Keeneland meet. The pace works against her here and the new rider may not know all the buttons, while capable. If there's an upset hope, that's it.

If you're going to beat a standout like GOING GLOBAL, you have to do it with an adverse running style. If the race sets up for her style, you're not going to be good enough to upend her. That makes PARK AVENUE the most likely to pull this off after a wire-to-wire victory in her first turf try 20 days ago. Trainer John Sadler strikes while the iron is hot with this stakes-placed dirt runner. There's a decent amount of turf pedigree on the damside and sire Quality Road is having some success with grass runners.

AVENUE DE FRANCE also has pace worries as a one-run closer. She would cap a great meet for Leonard Powell iwth an upset here, like she nearly pulled off in the G3 Megahertz over this course and distance at 24-1 in late January. JAVANICA could be icing on a major cake day for jockey John Velazquez, who pilots Adare Manor in the Oaks and Messier in the Derby. JAVANICA is capable of being near the front if the pace is on the tepid side, but isn't a speed merchant by any means. She was a hard-luck filly in a couple of nearrow stakes losses last year, but her last few have been disappointing.

Allowance winner EXCELERINA is likely here to help fill the race for stablemate GOING GLOBAL, but she's also capable of getting some easy black-type in a field of 5 if she beats a few runners and that's big on the checkbook for a filly when it comes time for breeding.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
GOING GLOBAL is 4-4 on the Santa Anita turf, the class and will come running at the end.​

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Not applicable in a field of 5, but we're hoping the price is fair on PARK AVENUE and that we can compound some value with the Santa Anita Derby lead-in by taking a stand where a lot of tickets will split with the dual favorites.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 daily double from Race 6, MESSIER to PARK AVENUE.

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Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 9, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing
| April 8, 2022 2:50 pm PDT
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Talk about Xtreme horse racing—we’ve got 14 stakes races spread across Aqueduct Racetrack, Keeneland Race Course, and Santa Anita Park to cover for our Saturday picks.

That 14 includes three of the last few qualifying races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (R2KD), as well as two of the qualifying stakes races for the Kentucky Oaks.

So, we’ve got a lot to cover, but before you move on down to the good bits, be sure to check out all your betting options at one of our best horse racing wagering sites.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Aqueduct Racetrack
Race five — Distaff Handicap (Grade III)

This is a $150,000 purse, seven-furlong run on the dirt track for fillies and mares four years old and upward.

I see no reason to argue with the morning-line over this one, so my two dollars is on the 1/1 favorite, Search Results, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz.

This four-year-old dark bay filly moneyed all six of her career starts, winning four, including last year’s Gazelle Stakes (Grade I) and the Acorn Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont.

Search Results has some solid competition in this race, but she will prevail.

Longtime Breeders’ Cup veteran and multiple Eclipse Award recipient Chad C. Brown trains Search Results for Klaravich Stables, Inc.
Race eight — Wood Memorial Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $750,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The Wood Memorial is a qualifying horse race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I like the 8/5 morning-line favorite in this race: Morello, with Jose Lezcano in the irons.

This colt won all three of his career starts, including his initial maiden attempt last November, the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes (Black Type) in February, and the Gotham Stakes (Grade III) in March—all here at Aqueduct.
Morello is already #12 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 50 points.

Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Famer Steven M. Asmussen trains Morello for owners Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T Racing.
Race nine — Carter Handicap (Grade I)

This is a $300,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward. My money’s on the 8/5 favorite, Speaker’s Corner, with veteran jockey Junior Alvarado aboard.

This four-year-old bay colt finished in the money seven of his eight career starts, winning five. His two most recent wins were the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (Grade III) in January and the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (Grade II) last month. In this eight-horse field, he’s got the numbers to win.

Hall of Famer William I. Mott trains Speaker’s Corner for owner-breeder Godolphin, LLC.
Race ten — Gazelle Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $250,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-old fillies. The Gazelle Stakes is a qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Oaks, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I’m betting my two dollars on the second-favored (at 5/2) Classy Edition, piloted by Joel Rosario.

This bay filly moneyed all four of her career starts, winning three, including the Joseph A. Gimma Stakes (Black Type) at Belmont last September and the Key Cents Stakes (Black Type) here at Aqueduct in November.

She also notably finished second in the Davona Dale Stakes (Grade II) at Gulfstream Park last month.

Her stats are practically a carbon copy of those of Venti Valentine, the favorite in this race, but Classy Edition’s speed figures overall are slightly better.

Todd A. Pletcher trains Classy Edition for owners Lawana L. and Robert E. Low.
Race eleven — Bay Shore Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $200,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track race for three-year-olds. I like the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Wit, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz.

This dark bay colt moneyed all four of his career starts, winning two, including the Sanford Stakes (Grade III) last July at Saratoga.

He notably finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (Grade I) at Saratoga last September, and third in the Champagne Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont last October. Versus the rest of the ten-horse field, he’s got this.

Todd A. Pletcher trains Wit for owners Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck).
Saturday’s Horse Racing Picks for Keeneland Race Course
Race five — Commonwealth Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $300,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track race for four-year-olds and upward.

Any race that includes two Kentucky Derby contenders from previous years is bound to be interesting, and I have to call this one for the 5/1 second-favored O Besos, piloted by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

The four-year-old chestnut colt finished five of his nine career starts in the money, winning three. He notably finished third in the

Last year’s Louisiana Derby (Grade II), and second in the Matt Winn Stakes (Grade III) last May.

In the 2021 Kentucky Derby, O Besos was still fighting for a better position competition when he crossed the finish line fifth out of 19.

Gregory D. Foley trains O Besos for owners Bernard Racing LLC, Tagg Team Racing, West Point Thoroughbreds, and Terry L. Stephens.
Race six — Appalachian Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $400,000 purse, one-mile turf run for three-year-old fillies. This looks like a two-horse race with a handful of extras sent over from central casting. I’m buying my win ticket on Spendarella, with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons.

This bay filly won both of her career starts, including the Herecomesthebride Stakes (Grade III) at Gulfstream last month.

Thirty-year horse racing veteran H. Graham Motion trains Spendarella for Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck).

Spendarella’s only real competition here is the 5/2 second-favorite, French import Dolce Zel, ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Trained by Chad C. Brown for owners Michael Dubb, Madaket Stables LLC, and Robert V. LaPenta, this Dolce Zel won two of her three career starts, including the Florida Oaks (Grade III) last month.
Race seven — Madison Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $500,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for fillies and mares four years old and upward. I’m buying a win ticket on the 7/2 third-favorite, Bell’s the One, with Corey J. Lanerie aboard.

This six-year-old bay mare has been a consistent winner throughout her career, with 17 money finishes in 22 starts, 11 of them wins.

Her most notable wins were the Raven Run Stakes (Grade II) in 2019, the Derby City Distaff Stakes (Grade I) in 2020 at Churchill Downs, and the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (Grade II) last October.
Bell’s the One has spent her entire career making money in stakes races (20 of 22). Why should this one be any different?

Neil L. Pessin trains Bell’s the One for Lothenbach Stables, Inc. (Bob Lothenbach).
Race eight — Shakertown Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $350,000 purse, 5-1/2 furlong turf run for three-year-olds and upward. I’m going to agree with the morning line here and bet on the 4/5 favorite, Golden Pal, ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

This four-year-old bay colt finished seven of his eight career starts in the money, winning five, including the Quick Call Stakes (Grade III) at Saratoga last July, the Woodford Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland in October, and the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I) at Del Mar in December.

Longtime Breeders’ Cup veteran Wesley A. Ward trains Golden Pal for Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, and Westerberg.
Race nine — Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $1,000,000 purse, 1-1/8 mile dirt track run for three-year-olds. The Blue Grass Stakes is a qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I’m betting on the 9/5 morning-line favorite, Smile Happy, piloted by Corey J. Lanerie.

This dark bay colt finished in the money or all three of his career starts, winning two, including the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II) at Churchill Downs last November.

He notably finished second in the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II) at Fair Grounds Race Course in February. Both of his stakes finishes gave him points on the 2022 R2KD leaderboard, and he enters this race at #17 with 30 points.

Kenneth G. McPeek trains Smile Happy for Lucky Seven Stable (Mackin).
Saturday Horse Racing Picks for Santa Anita Park
Race four — Santa Anita Oaks (Grade II)

This is a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track race for three-year-old fillies. The Santa Anita Oaks is a qualifying horse race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Oaks, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

In this short field of five, my money is on the 5/2 second-favored Under the Stars, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike E. Smith.

This bay filly finished all five of her career starts in the money, winning two, including the Santa Ynez Stakes (Grade II) in January.

Under the Stars also finished second in a field of nine in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (Grade III) just last month.

Tim Yakteen has taken over the training of Under the Stars—formerly in training under Bob Baffert—for owners Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, and Derrick Smith.
Race five — Providencia Stakes (Grade III)

This is a $100,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles turf run for three-year-old fillies. I’m betting my two dollars on the fourth-favored Cairo Memories, piloted by Mike E. Smith.

This gray roan filly moneyed three of her five career starts, winning two, including the Surfer Girl Stakes (Listed) in October.

She notably finished second in a field of six in the Starlet Stakes (Grade I) at Los Alamitos in December. Despite her disappointing seventh-place finish in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (Grade III) in March, she still has the numbers and the experience to make her my top choice for this turf run.

Robert B. Hess, Jr. trains Cairo Memories for owners David A. Bernsen, LLC and Schroeder Farms LLC.
Race six — Santa Anita Derby (Grade I)

This is a $750,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds. The Santa Anita Derby is a qualifying race on the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and awards leaderboard points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

I’m betting on the second-favored (at 6/5) Forbidden Kingdom, with ace jockey Juan J. Hernandez in the irons.

This chestnut colt is currently #11 on the R2KD leaderboard with 50 points. For the record, Forbidden Kingdom has moneyed all five of his career starts, including his two most recent races, the San Vicente Stakes (Grade II) in January and the San Felipe Stakes (Grade II) in March.

Longtime horse racing veteran and Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Famer Richard E. Mandella trains Forbidden Kingdom for owners MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm LLC.
Race seven — Royal Heroine Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $200,000 purse, one-mile turf run for fillies and mares four years old and upward.

This race is my no-brainer pick for Saturday: 4/5 morning-line favorite Going Global, piloted by veteran jockey Umberto Rispoli.

This Irish import finished eight of her 12 career starts in the money, winning seven, including the Del Mar Oaks (Grade I) last August and the Goldikova Stakes (Grade II) in November.

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Rocket Picks ��: Keeneland, Santa Anita, and Aqueduct for April 9, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

This massive week of racing continues with the last major day for Kentucky Derby prep races! For the free pick 4, we will head to Keeneland today. We will also have full card selections for Santa Anita and Aqueduct for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s go!

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Keeneland:

Keeneland April 9, 2022

Race 8: Shakertown Stakes (G2)

#10 Golden Pal is back after an amazing effort last time out to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) at Del Mar. He’s been working very strongly leading up to this race and has 2 very impressive wins over this turf course. #11 Just Might is very consistent when sprinting on the turf.

Race 9: Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
freestar

#10 Smile Happy is the deserving favorite and should improve in his second race of the year. #4 Zandon has been working very well leading up to the race and many of his rivals look similar, so if he fires big like past Brown horses, then he’ll be tough to beat.

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming

#11 Into Vanishing was second last time out to the champion Letruska, making this a major class drop. #12 Semble Juste also gets a nice class drop for today’s race.

Race 11: Allowance

#10 Momos drops down in class for this race after running well against stakes company at similar distances. #11 Artemus Citylimits has hit the board in 10 straight races.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 10 / 1,4,5,6,10 / 1,4,5,11,12 / 10,11,12 – $37.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Picks: Wood Memorial Day, plus a bevy of stakes on April 9
By J.N. Campbell


Aqueduct Racetrack Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 9-6-1-2
Race 2: 1-2-6-4
Race 3: 11-4-1-9
Race 4: 1/1A-3-6-4
Race 5: 6-2-3-5
Race 6: 5-2-7-3
Race 7: 4-3-1-6
Race 8: 5-2-3-1
Race 9: 5-1-8-4
Race 10: 6-3-7-5
Race 11: 5-1-9-6
**Most Likely: Classy Edition #6 (Race 10)**
**Best Value: First Captain #5 (Race 9)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 10: Classy Edition #6, 5/2):

The female version of the Wood is the Grade 3 Gazelle S. for 3-yr-old fillies (KY Oaks "Points" are on the table), and this race comes down to the fortunes of Todd Pletcher’s daughter of Classic Empire (a half to Morello). The filly already has a win over this surface in late November in a “Non-G.” That was her 3rd win in-a-row, and it was only next time out in the Davona Dale (G2) that she missed. In her defense, that was against Shug McGaughey’s Kathleen O, a horse that will be one of the favorites in the KYOaks. Pletcher teams with Joel Rosario, who has packed his overnight bag, and hopped a flight to Long Island. I am not too concerned with the stretch out because I think she can take that kind of step forward. This is really the moment when Pletcher opens up the floodgates at the NYRA track and rakes purse money into the coffers. She wins …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #6



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 9: First Captain #5, 8/1):

The Grade 1 Carter Handicap is here! Trying to beat Bill Mott’s Speaker’s Corner is going to be a chore … but the reward will be quite nice. I think I have an antidote to this on-the-engine-type, and it’s Shug McGaughey’s First Captain #5. This colt by Curlin is one bred by Chef Bobby Flay. West Point and Siena Farm co-own this talented tracker, that made a ton of noise last year after he won the Dwyer (G3) at Belmont. I think this one is just getting cranked up for his ’22 campaign, and I fully expect to see him in the winner’s circle on Saturday. Jockey Jose Ortiz can be a force in spots like these, and he knows his mount, having been the only rider that he has ever had. What a price this younger entry is going to be!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS # ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Wood Memorial S. (G2), $750k, 3):

Even though the Wood Memorial has not played a significant role in the Triple Crown “conversation,” that doesn’t mean it’s one “Prep” to overlook … not by a long shot. Speaking of those, we had some last year … Will we see a repeat? This year’s edition of the Wood has some tough favorites in Todd Pletcher’s Mo Donegal #1, Chad Brown’s Early Voting #3, and Steve Asmussen’s Morello #5. Each of these colts has their assets, and question marks … Pletcher’s entry (part of an uncoupled set) is looking to rebound after a miss against White Abarrio in early Feb. at Gulfstream Park in the G3 Holy Bull. The well-bred son of Uncle Mo won at “The Big A” in the Remsen S. (G2) somewhat controversially against Zandon. It is hard to gauge exactly how the Donegal Racing ace will respond here, but one thing is for sure, Joel Rosario is going to give it his best. When it comes to tackling a 2-turn route like this race, we already know that Brown’s entry has what it takes because he bested a very good field (Un Ojo and Gilded Age, among others) in the Withers S. (G3) going 1 1/8th. The Gun Runner router clearly appreciates the MT, and Jose Ortiz will be aboard yet again. Can this colt make it a perfect 3/3? As for Asmussen’s son of Classic Empire, he is my top selection, and I think the world of this power player. In the Gotham (G3) after winning impressively in the Jimmy Winkfield $100, he really turned up the heat with Jose Lezcano aboard (Pletcher’s Golden Code #2 was 3rd). Of course, going this distance and with this pedigree will make some pause … Not me … I want to make a bold statement right now … I think this Asmussen-trainee is a more talented runner than Epicenter. I know … again, it was prefaced with a “bold statement.” In a tough spot like this one, the cream rises to the top … and in this instance, it is Blue Lion Thoroughbreds and their talented runner. Time to book for Churchill Downs … Asmussen on top, again …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 5 w 1/2/3 w 1/2/3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Jury: Bets and fades for April 9
TwinSpires Staff

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on the final weekend of major Kentucky Derby (G1) preps and other top-level stakes at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita.
What is your best bet?

James Scully: Plenty of speed is signed on for the Madison (G1) at Keeneland, and #5 Bell's the One (7-2) will be rolling late from off the pace. The six-year-old mare concluded last season on a strong note, winning back-to-back stakes at Keeneland and Churchill Downs, and she's been training forwardly for her return. A Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs, Bell's the One will take advantage of a terrific setup.

Kellie Reilly: In Keeneland's fourth race on Saturday, #9 Macallan (4-1) has the profile of a Todd Pletcher sophomore on the rise. By Quality Road and out of a full sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Fed Biz, from the family of Johannesburg and Pulpit, Macallan arguably should have won on debut sprinting at Tampa Bay Downs. He appeared to make a rookie mistake by losing position early, and nearly atoned with a closing rush to miss on the wire. That experience, and the stretch-out to two turns next time, helped as he rolled by daylight. The Triple Crown nominee still looked a touch green there, suggesting more to come. Another step forward in this allowance would probably launch him into stakes company.

Vance Hanson: Having tabbed #6 The Lir Jet (12-1) to beat Golden Pal in the 2020 Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot, I'd be remiss if I didn't like him at a potentially longer price to topple the two-time Breeders' Cup winner in Saturday's Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland. Gelded last season, The Lir Jet reversed a spate of lackluster form when impressively taking his U.S. debut in the Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs in September. Although he wouldn't want the ground too soft and the distance might be slightly shorter than he really prefers, The Lir Jet would be a tempting play at 8-1 or higher as Golden Pal is sure to be odds-on or thereabouts.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #5 Nashville (1-1) flashed forward as lone speed and dominated overmatched allowance rivals at Fair Grounds last time, but #10 Prevalence exits a sharp win and has the speed to press the favorite in the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland. Unplaced in lone attempt at the seven-furlong trip, Nashville dropped his first two starts at Oaklawn this season, and he may prove vulnerable at short odds Saturday.

KR: Wood Memorial (G2) favorite #5 Morello (8-5) is clearly talented, but I'm not persuaded that 1 1/8 miles will be his favorite trip. Especially in the context of a Kentucky Derby prep, with the prospect of a solid pace, he's liable to be beaten for stamina by the likes of #1 Mo Donegal and #3 Early Voting. Note that Morello is related to Social Inclusion, a brilliant sprinter/miler who was third in the 2014 Wood.

VH: #6 Kimari (2-1) might prove vulnerable in her title defense of the Madison at Keeneland. Although perfect in two starts over the track and owning a fondness for the wet conditions that might exist at post time, her allowance prep at Gulfstream (94) wasn't quite as strong on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as her lead-in to this race a year ago, the Spring Fever S. at Oaklawn (105). While fully capable of improving off that effort, she's facing a deeper cast this year and offers little in the way of value.

What else is worth noting?

JS: In his last dirt start, #1 O P Firecracker closely stalked the pace before drawing off to break his maiden at Churchill Downs in late November. Robert Medina brought him back in a pair of stakes on the Tapeta at Turfway Park this year, and the sophomore colt rallied well in both starts, finishing only four lengths back of Tiz the Bomb in the Battaglia Memorial most recently. O P Firecracker moves back to the main track in a field lacking speed, receives first-time Lasix, and he'll be reunited with Tyler Gaffalione, who was up for the maiden win. Look for a better trip just off the speed, and O P Firecracker rates top billing at 12-1 on the morning line in Keeneland's fourth race.

KS: Wesley Ward sprint stars will be out in force at Keeneland Saturday, with Golden Pal the prohibitive favorite in the Shakertown (G2) and Kimari mounting a title defense in the Madison (G1). But there could be some Brazilian flavor to add value. Mark Casse's #9 Filo di Arianna (12-1) puts his unbeaten record on the line in the 5 1/2-furlong Shakertown, the shortest trip of his career. Yet Brazilian imports have done well on this course (see the past two Keeneland Turf Mile [G1] winners, In Love and Ivar), and Filo di Arianna descends from a sister to Prankster, the 1999 Shakertown hero. He could round out the exacta with Golden Pal — or maybe even upset if the turf is soft. Speaking of In Love and Ivar, their trainer, Paulo Lobo, sends out #2 Center Aisle (12-1) in the Madison. Although this seven-furlong test has come up deep, Center Aisle started out with a pretty big reputation for Chad Brown, and Lobo has the $1.5 million daughter of Into Mischief in sharp form.

VH: Besides the intrigue of the three Kentucky Derby preps, I'm also interested to see any progress #2 Ain't Easy (4-1) might show in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Forced to miss the Breeders' Cup last fall after facile victories in her first two starts, Ain't Easy returned to action in last month's Santa Ysabel (G3) and was clearly short of peak fitness against a pair of Bob Baffert-trained rivals that had been active all winter. She obviously needs a better effort to warrant a trip east for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but she remains with plenty of upside.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Racetrack Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 9-6-1-2
Race 2: 1-2-6-4
Race 3: 11-4-1-9
Race 4: 1/1A-3-6-4
Race 5: 6-2-3-5
Race 6: 5-2-7-3
Race 7: 4-3-1-6
Race 8: 5-2-3-1
Race 9: 5-1-8-4
Race 10: 6-3-7-5
Race 11: 5-1-9-6
**Most Likely: Classy Edition #6 (Race 10)**
**Best Value: First Captain #5 (Race 9)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Charles Town Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 4-1-6-5
Race 2: 4-6-2-1
Race 3: 3-6-7-2
Race 4: 3-7-2-1
Race 5: 2-1-3-6
Race 6: 7-2-4-1
Race 7: 3-2-1-6
Race 8: 3-1-4-6
**Most Likely Winner: Hazy Winter #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Sister Secret Lee #3 (Race 8)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 1-8-6-2
Race 2: 1-2-7-3
Race 3: 1-6-8-3
Race 4: 2-5-1-4
Race 5: 8-2-7-6
Race 6: 8-2-5-3
Race 7: 8-9-3-10
Race 8: 6-5-3-2
Race 9: 4-6-3-1
Race 10: 7-1-6-8
Race 11: 2-7-6-9
**Most Likely: Caminero (Race 5)**
**Best Value: Similar Taste (Race 1)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 11-5-12-4
Race 2: 6-1-5-10
Race 3: 5-3-12-4
Race 4: 12-4-6-3
Race 5: 8-5-7-10 (1st Leg, P5)
Race 6: 5-3-4-2 (2nd Leg, P5)
Race 7: 4-2-3-6 (3rd Leg, P5)
Race 8: 5-11-10-6 (4th Leg, P5)
Race 9: 8-11-12-4 (Final Leg, P5)
Race 10: 2-11-5-12
Race 11: 7-12-6-4
**Most Likely: Skims (GB) #5 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Ethereal Road #8 (Race 9)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Laurel Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 7-5-1-2
Race 2: 5-6-1-2
Race 3: 5-1-7-8
Race 4: 3-7-6-1
Race 5: 3-1-2-7
Race 6: 5-4-2-8
Race 7: 4-1-5-7
Race 8: 5-6-1-2
Race 9: 1-6-3-2
**Most Likely Winner: Vanhoofer #7 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Bizzy Bizzy #5 (Race 3)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mahoning Valley Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 6-1-3-4
Race 2: 1-6-5-4
Race 3: 5-3-2-1
Race 4: 1-5-2-6
Race 5: 5-6-2-1
Race 6: 3-4-5-1
Race 7: 5-6-8-2
Race 8: 3-2-7-4
Race 9: 1-4-5-3
**Most Likely Winner: Island Winter #5 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Icy Rain #1 (Race 4)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 4-3-7-5
Race 2: 6-7-2-4
Race 3: 8-4-1-6
Race 4: 7-2-1-5
Race 5: 6-2-3-10
Race 6: 9-3-8-2
Race 7: 5-2-4-7
Race 8: 3-8-6-5
Race 9: 2-6-7-5
Race 10: 2-7-1-4
**Most Likely: Punchy Girl #5 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Peace Dog #2 (Race 9)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Houston Race Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 2-6-5-8
Race 2: 8-2-7-1
Race 3: 3-7-11-4
Race 4: 6-2-1-7
Race 5: 5-6-8-7
Race 6: 8-13-3-6
Race 7: 2-7-3-8
Race 8: 3-2-7-5
Race 9: 5-2-10-6
Race 10: 9-6-3-2
Race 11: 8-10-2-6
**Most Likely Winner: Tatanka #3 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Sarcastic Tone #6 (Race 4)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 3-2-6-1
Race 2: 3-5-4-1
Race 3: 6-8-3-1
Race 4: 5-3-2-4
Race 5: 2-4-6-1
Race 6: 4-1-3-6
Race 7: 1-5-3-4
Race 8: 7-1-12-8
Race 9: 2-4-7-3
Race 10: 8-2-6-1
Race 11: 9-10-7-5
Race 12: 3-1-8-5
**Most Likely: Messier #4 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Everlys Girl #8 (Race 10)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Downs Picks - Saturday, April 9, 2022

Race 1: 1-3-2-6
Race 2: 1-2-6-3
Race 3: 4-1-6-9
Race 4: 8-2-6-3
Race 5: 8-1-3-9
Race 6: 5-2-3-4
Race 7: 8-10-4-1
Race 8: 3-1-7-4
Race 9: 4-7-3-1
**Most Likely Winner: Fuego Caliente (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Schatzi (Race 5)**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Rosecroft Raceway Pick 4 Analysis

April 9, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

The 13-race card at Rosecroft Raceway kicks off with the feature, a Maryland Preferred Open Handicap with a $12,500 purse. The 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

2-My Name Is Hairy (3-1)-The 0-9 record this year is cause for pause but now drops to a competitive level. Has been plagued by poor post draws and has the gate speed to make the most of this opportunity.
5-Danceathon (7/2)-This will be the 2nd start of 2022 and the 1st race at RcR this season. It looks like a nice spot for a debut. Hasn't missed the board in 3 RcR starts and should be a player.
7-Boot Leg (9/2)-Has been hurt by tough trips and recent form hasn't been good enough. Looking for a Roberts to work a smooth journey and a better finish to the mile at a solid price.

Race 10

3-Shim (3-1)-Has been trying hard and starting from post 3 instead of post 7 could make a significant difference. Foster can blast out and not look back.
5-Maurice (7/2)-Steps-up and will need its best versus this group but has the gate speed to land in the pocket behind #3. Appears to have a tactical advantage over most of these and it's best to not overlook.

Race 11

6-Jack Quick (3-1)-Drops to the level of the last win on 3-20 and this post draw should suit. Foster could find some live cover and roll by down the lane.

Race 12

2-Twin B Fighter (5/2)-Made its RcR debut last week and had a game effort off a tough trip. Will be difficult to beat if dials it up a notch after a sharp try in an acclimating mile and did miss a start.
6-Transparency (9/2)-Drops out of the Open class after 2 very good races versus this kind. Wagner should be leaving hard and could get a close-up seat. This 4-year-old has won 10 of 28 here and might be overlooked at the windows.

0.50 Pick 4

2,5,7/3,5/6/2,6
Total Bet=$6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 4/9/22

April 9, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Toby’s Heart; 1-Alice Marble

Forecast: Eastern shipper Tobys Heart (TOC=8/5; ML=2-1) is a prototype late-running turf sprinter and therefor is perfectly suited for the Hillside Course. She can route, too, but is much more comfortable going short and in fact sports a career record of four wins from five starts (including three stakes) in grass sprints. Freshened since December, the daughter of Jack Milton should fire a big shot off the bench under Johnny V., and in a six-runner affair shouldn’t have to worry about any traffic issues. As the second choice at 5/2 on the morning line, the B. Lynch-trained filly warrants top billing. Alice Marble (TOC=2-1; ML=2-1) is strictly the one to beat. Winner of the restricted Wishing Well S. over the flat course in late February, the daughter of Grazen has a bit more tactical speed than Tobys Heart and could get first jump on her main rival approaching the dirt crossing. From there, it’s just a matter of who can outkick who. Both should be used in rolling exotic play, with the preferred punch going to Tobys Heart.

Notable Workouts:

Alice Marble (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
Went off quickly without being asked and finish on her own in extra sharp solo main track drill for P. D’Amato, final half mile in :22.3 and :47.1. Tough on any surface and remains right on edge.
View Workout Video


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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Smuggler’s Run

Forecast: The Echo Eddie Stakes for state-bred 3-year-olds attracted just five entrants, including Smuggler’s Run (TOC=Evens; ML=6/5), who returns to the local main track, the surface over which he graduated in his debut on New Year’s Day by more than five lengths. He’s run well on turf in three subsequent outings, most recently when second vs. open company in a fast allowance race that produced a speed figure that should easily win this race. At 6/5 on the morning line, the R. Baltas-trained colt won’t offer any real wagering value other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Smuggler’s Run (April 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4h). Grade: B
In blinkers, nothing more than a high gallop while even but best with Candy for Carmel (same time) while breezing far off the rail, splits of :24.4 and :50 flat on our watches, sharp and eager. Handles any surface but might actually prefer dirt.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Bestrella; 5-Rapid Transit; 1-Operative

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the third race, a $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Bestrella (TOC=9/5; ML=2-1) is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita turf course but is adding blinkers for the first time in her 17 race career, and it will be interesting to see if the hood wakes her up. Second as the odds-on 3/5 favorite vs. similar over this course and distance last month, the D. O’Neill-trained import hasn’t been one to trust since arriving from Ireland, though she’s certainly good enough to win on her best day. Rapid Transit (TOC=2-1; ML=7/2) does her best work on the front end and managed to wire the field when outlasting a $20,000 field over this course and distance two races back. She was overmatched in starter’s allowance company last time out but isn’t today. Operatic (TOC=9/2; ML=5-1) is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail post position and gets a break in the weights with the swift to bug boy D. Herrera. Victimized by a lack of pace when closing much too late to be third behind Rapid Transit last time out, the P. Aguirre-trained mare has finished first or second in 15 of 34 lifetime starts and can be expected to get at least a piece of it again today.


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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Adare Manor

Forecast: Adare Manor (TOC=3/5; ML=3/5) earned identical 94 Beyer speed figures in her two most recent races (her only two outings around two turns) when destroying maidens and then winning the Las Virgenes S.-G3 by a combined 25 lengths. She’s since been transferred to the T. Yakteen barn but has trained as well as ever, so we’re expecting the daughter of Uncle Mo to run at least as well and perhaps better in this year’s edition of the Santa Anita Oaks-G-2. She’s drawn outside in the five runner affair, so it would not be surprising to see Johnny V. employ stalking tactics outside. At 3/5 on the morning line, she’s logically unplayable in the win pool but you can use her a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

Notable Workouts:

Splendid solo main track work for sophomore daughter of Uncle Mo, from the five furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole in :23.1, :35 flat, :59.4 and 1:12.3 on our watches, a couple of ticks faster than given and breezing most of the way. Won her last two races by a combined 25 lengths and it’s easy to see why. Next stop, the Santa Anita Oaks-G2.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Lucky Girl; 3-Cairo Memories

Forecast: Lucky Girl (TOC=6/5; ML=5/2) continued her improving pattern with an authoritative victory in the China Doll Stakes in a performance that verified the strength of her upset score in the Lady Shamrock Stakes the previous month. Both of those wins came over a mile; today, the R. Baltas-trained import stretches out to nine furlongs but we doubt she’ll have an issues with the longer trip. Her numbers have risen in each of her five starts since arriving from Ireland, and with a healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs to tick her over, the daughter of Exceed and Excel should continue to improve as she gains experience. There’s value at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Cairo Memories (TOC=2-1; ML=7/2) was virtually eased in the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 last month on the main track but she’s much more comfortable on grass and should regain her top form under these conditions. She can be expected to display enough tactical speed to always be within range of the leaders in a race that projects to have soft splits. We’ll prefer Lucky Girl on top but have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.

Notable Workouts:

Cairo Memories (March 31, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: B
Breezing through the lane and finishing with plenty left in solo five furlong drill, splits of :24.1, :36.2 and 1:01.2, quite nice for a grass specialist working on dirt. Toss out her poor run in the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 in early March; clearly is much more comfortable on grass and should bounce back on her preferred surface in her next start.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Messier

Forecast: Messier (TOC=Evens; ML=Evens) won the Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths in early February while earning a 103 Beyer number, the fastest figure earned by any member of the sophomore division so far, and he did so without being required to do anything close to his best. The son of Empire Maker was part of the pace in that race; today, he’ll have to prove he can be just as effective from a second flight early position, what with the speedy Forbidden Kingdom (and perhaps recent maiden sprint winner Taiba) insuring a much quicker early pace. It shouldn’t matter. He has looked terrific in the a.m. in the two months since his most recent win and should have no trouble reproducing his best form no matter what the pace flow turns out to be. In a race like this, you have to take a stand, so we’ll sink or swim with the sure-to-be short-priced Messier on top in our various rolling exotic plays.

Notable Workouts:

Messier (April 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B+
Under cruise control throughout, never taking a deep breath, splits of :24.3, :36.1 and 1:00.4 to the wire on our watches before coasting out an extra furlong in 1:13.4. On edge for the Santa Anita Derby.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Going Global

Forecast: Going Global (TOC=3/5; ML=4/5) labored on dirt when finishing far back three months ago in the American Oaks-G1 in a race that at the last minute was switched to the main track but based on her recent workouts she’s clearly over the experience and is ready to return to peak form. Unbeaten in four starts over the local lawn, the Irish-bred filly owns a decided class edge over her rivals in this year’s renewal of the Royal Heroine S.-G2, and a recent training track drill while in company with stable mate Excelerina (see below) was exceptional. At 4/5 on the morning line, The P. D’Amato-trained filly is a no-value rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Going Global (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: A
In company inside Excelerina, 5f, 1:00h TT) in training track drill for P. D’Amato and was head-and-head to the top of the lane before accelerating in the final furlong to draw away as tons the best while mostly on her own, splits of :24.2, :36 flat and :59.4. Freshened since December and looks better than ever. Workmate was a bit keen early and was right with ‘Global entering the lane but then couldn’t keep pace despite being asked and fell back.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Economical; 1-Dutch Bus; 8=Poseidon’s Kid

Forecast: Here’s a maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses that presents an opportunity for a price play, with the first-timer Economical worth a bit of a gamble at 12-1 in the morning line. The S. McCarthy-trained son of Tiz a Minister didn’t look half-bad in a recent team gate drill while mostly on his own and able to go faster if permitted (see below), so in a wide open affair in which the known element looks somewhat ordinary, let’s take a flyer with a fresh face at a big price. Dutch Bus remains well above his $20,000 claim level in his second start since being haltered by T. Yakteen, so we’ll assume the lightly-raced gelding remains well-liked by his connections. A willing third place effort in a similar event last month charts well with these, so with a clean break from his rail post the son of Will Take Charge should have ever chance to fire his best shot. Poseidon’s Kid displayed a modest amount of ability last year while earning speed figures that should be competitive against this group. Away since July, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding looks about the same in recent workouts but may be good enough to at least get a piece of it.

Notable Workouts:

Economical (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Gate drill outside Steel Nerves (same time) for S. McCarthy and didn’t do badly for a maiden-claiming type, slightly second best early but then taking control late without ever really being asked for his best, splits of :24.2, :36.1, :48.1 and 1:01.3, something left late. Could be a threat in a soft maiden claimer and is worth a look in the proper spot.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Granola Girl

Forecast: Granola Girl ran well under similar conditions when finishing with interest to be a close fourth two races back and then pressed the pace before weakening late in a turf miler last month. Back around one turn today, the daughter of Jack Milton may be capable of producing a winning late kick in what appears to be a below average field of maiden fillies and mares. Two nice recent breezes should have her right on edge, so at 3-1 on the morning line, let’s make the R. Baltas-trained filly a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 10: Post: 4:52 PT Grade:
Use (In order of preference): 2-Connie Swingle; 6-Professors’ Pride; 8-Everlys Girl

Forecast: This is a fairly decent edition of the Evening Jewel Stakes for sophomore fillies that offers three legitimate possibilities. Connie Swingle (TOC=6/5; ML=9/5) has looked very sharp in the morning while preparing for her comeback, and the stakes-winning daughter of Grazen will outclass this group if she returns as well as she left. Away since winning the Generous Portion Stakes at Del Mar last September, the P. D’Amato-trained filly recently honed her speed with a :59 flat gate work (see below) that should have her right on edge. She is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. Professors’ Pride (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) is undefeated in two starts on dirt and returns to state-bred company, so we’re expecting the daughter of Bayern to snap back to top form. Herself a stakes winner as a two-year-old, the daughter of Bayern projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. She is reunited with “win rider” J. Hernandez and shows three easy breezes since raced that indicate she is doing well. Everlys Girl (TOC=8/2; ML=8-1) was impressive breaking her maiden by more than eight lengths last month while earning a solid number, and with another forward move today the daughter of Shaman Ghost should be competitive, especially if she can get over and establish the pace. You should include her in on a ticket or two for protection.

Notable Workouts:

Connie Swingle (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, :59hg). Grade: B+
Much best over Poseidon’s Kid (5f, 1:00.2hg) for P. D’Amato, drawing away with power after straightening for home while under light coaxing only. Appears to be returning at least as good if not better than she left and appears fit enough.
View Workout Video


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RACE 11: Post: 5:22 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Arkaan ; 7-Burnin Turf; 10-Harbored Memories; 8-Anaconda

Forecast: Top-to-bottom a chance in this slalom event for second-level older allowance runners in a race that offers plenty of price possibilities. We’ll go four-deep in rolling exotic play and hope that’s enough. Arkaan (TOC=10-1; ML=8-1) makes his first start since January of 2021 for new trainer V. Cerin, and because he won his debut we know he can fire fresh. A healthy recent series of workouts should have him plenty fit, so if the son of Into Mischief can reproduce his best form in his first try on grass, he could produce a significant upset at 8-1 on the morning line. In a race that projects to have an average early pace, the pace flow suggests he’ll find himself on or near the lead throughout. Burnin Turf (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) earned a career top speed figure when winning over this course and distance last month from a first-level allowance field. This is a tougher group but based on numbers he should be quite competitive right back. It was the first sprint race of his career and maybe running short is what he’s always wanted to so. Harbored Memories (TOC=5-1; ML=5-1) lost a toughie when worn down late in a similar affair over the flat course in his recent comeback. He equaled his career top number and should produce a forward move today, so the M. Puype-trained colt must be considered a strong contender right back. Anaconda is back sprinting where he belongs and should be rolling in the final furlong. The lightly-raced five-year-old flattened out when favored over a mile last time out but under these conditions should be able to settle early and blast home late. At 5-1 on the morning line, you have to use him.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 12: Post: 5:52 PT Grade: C+
Use (In order of preference): 1-Brotherly Love; 6-Halfbarberbingie; 4-Today Matters; 2-It’s Big

Forecast: The nightcap is a messy maiden claiming turf miler that looks borderline inscrutable. Nothing would surprise us. Brotherly Love lands the rail, projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip, and should be within range with every chance from the quarter pole home. He’s a fit on numbers, retains good bug boy D. Herrera, and with only four prior starts has room for improvement that most of the others don’t. At 10-1 on the morning line, why not? Halfbarberbingie shows a race over this course and distance two runs back – a runner-up effort at 25-1 – that charts well with these. With the switch to U. Rispole, the son of American Pharoah should run at least as well today and perhaps better. Today Matters has finished in the frame in his last three, most recently winding up second over nine furlongs at 32-1 in a race that produced a career top number. Not much more will be needed today, and this shortening in trip shouldn’t hurt, either. Its Big is re-equipped with blinkers and exits a pair of straight maiden state-bred events. He could improve enough against this softer bunch to have a chance at 20-1 on the morning line.

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Brian W. Spencer Daily Picks

Oaklawn - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Stainless Steel: MSW dropper takes the biggest plunge in racing after showing speed and tiring against better, which is often a potent angle when dipping in for a tag for the first time.
#8 Invariably Fellow MSW dropper easily pick the pick in February and will be a real handful, though his lack of early speed may leave him with too much to do late.
#5 K C Rocket Experienced stalker is another who has only faced MSW foes but those were with Stall, and he's now with Moysey, who sits at a dicey 0-for-25 on the year.
Race Summary The speed of Stainless Steel should play in here, as he's going to get first run on Invariably, who could be mired in traffic in this large field, at minuscule odds to boot. -- Brian W. Spencer

Oaklawn - Race #10
Picks Notes
#11 Doc Irwin Stiff lass dropper has been facing tons better while failing to make a late dent, but there's early speed to his inside and that might get him untracked late.
#12 Mahomey Like the pick he too has been facing better, and the blinkers-on might help to put that dud he ran last time in his rearview mirror.
#1 Forsaken Sharp MCL winner finally broke through and isn't meeting much on the rise, but taking on winners is never easy, he's poorly drawn, and will be overbet too.
Race Summary The favorites--at least those on the ML--hardly inspire and all wall to be involved early, which figures to only flatter the running style of Doc Irwin, and the last time he was in a spot he belonged he rolled past state-bred MCL'ers with ease, which is the type of run he might deliver here now that he's back with his friends. -- Brian W. Spencer

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 NO BETTER JOY Last two are better than they appear, today’s Best Bet.
#5 DAY DELIGHT Rallied from clouds, draws better post, knows how to win.
#8 LITTLE MANNY Rode rail, surged late at 45-1 upsetter, draws outside.
Race Summary No Better Joy, probably best when blocked through the stretch two starts back, gave a good account of himself on the class rise. He advanced steadily in the middle half but paced evenly while 4-wide in the stretch. Play 1-5 and 1-8 exactas.

Freehold - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 ROCKINWITHTHEBEST Shuffled behind dueling leader, re-rallied to just miss.
#4 BLAYDE HANOVER Demolished weaker field, seeks 31st victory.
#1 ITS JUST TOO MUCH Exits fast race, gets class relief, draws rail.
Race Summary Rockinwiththebest rode the pocket behind the dueling leaders but was shuffled to seventh on the final turn. He recovered with a burst on the rail to get beat a neck in a blanket finish. Bet to win and place.

Meadowlands - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 I’LL DRINK TO THAT Tired under demanding fractions, can bounce back with sensible pace.
#3 GOOD ROCKIN Validated visually impressive score with front-end repeat.
#5 DANCE IT OUT Will be running late at a price, use underneath in gimmicks.
Race Summary I’ll Drink To That went wire-to-wire in his second start after a year layoff, then chased the fleet-footed, 1-to-5 favorite last out before the deep closers arrived to sweep the top 3 spots. There’s plenty of pace pressure to deal with in here, but he might be up to the task. Play a 2-3-5 exacta box.

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Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Saturday, April 9th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE #9
TIME: 5:35 PM EST
PICK: BET #2 Fouzia 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada (http://record.bettingpartners.com/_pO1vV3scjG8UbyPgnoR23mNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)

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Odds Shark (Joe Osborne)

UFC
Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO (+240)
Yan to win by decision (+125)
Chimaev - Burns over 1.5 rounds (-120)

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Boston/NY Yankees Over 9 Runs

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY:CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Cease) -140 over Detroit

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Totals4U

Saturday's Free Selection: Houston Astros/Los Angeles Angels over 8 1/2

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Atlantic Sports

Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Tampa Bay Rays - 215

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#1 Sports

Saturday's Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers - 160

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Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Cincinnati/Atlanta Game Over 10 Runs

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Saturday : Take MEMPHIS/NEW ORLEANS UNDER the total of 230

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Hawkeye Sports

Saturday's Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers - 160

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Huddle Up Sports

KC Keller -118

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Arthur Ralph

FreePlay SAT White Sox w/ Cease -145

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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Saturday: ATLANTA (Wright) -155 over Cincinnati

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Saturday: Cincinnati Reds + 145

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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Saturday: GS/SA OVER 222

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Hollywood Anthony

Your Free Play Take Houston -115 (MLB)

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Chris Tudor

MLB Cleveland/Kansas City OVER the total of 8.5 runs

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TAMPASPORTSHANDICAPPER

COLORADO ROCKIES -R.LINE +1.5

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Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - April 8SANTA ANITA TIPS - FRIDAY, APRIL 08, 2022





Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.







RACE #1 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

8-5

5

Rhea Moon

J J Hernandez



PLACE

4-1

1

Kirstenbosch

T Baze



SHOW

4-1

7

Sweet Talked

J Bravo



WILD CARD

8-1

4

Dear Beau

R A Vazquez







ALTERNATE 1

5-2

2

Isola Mia

D A Herrera



ALTERNATE 2

12-1

3

Violet Storm

K Frey













* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX















RACE #2 $69,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

7-5

5

Midnight Jamboree

M E Smith



PLACE

7-2

4

Fi Fi Pharoah

D A Herrera



SHOW

8-5

2

Dream Princess

J J Hernandez



WILD CARD

8-1

3

Classical Romance

R Curatolo







ALTERNATE 1

6-1

1

Varoma

T Baze













* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX















RACE #3 $25,000 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:07 PM ET















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

7-2

7

Stanford Bay

D A Herrera



PLACE

5-1

5

Gator Shining

R Curatolo



SHOW

7-2

1

Smiling Goodbye

A Cedillo



WILD CARD

5-1

3

Prince Magician

K Frey







ALTERNATE 1

3-1

2

Thirsty Always

T Baze



ALTERNATE 2

5-1

8

Perfecto Amor

R Ramirez













* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX















RACE #4 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:37 PM ET















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

3-1

6

Queen Ofthe Temple

D Van Dyke



PLACE

5-1

1

Exit Soul

V Espinoza



SHOW

5-2

2

Sunny Morning

M E Smith



WILD CARD

3-1

5

Carroll Girl

R A Vazquez







ALTERNATE 1

6-1

7

Adelie

R Curatolo



ALTERNATE 2

5-1

4

Khlass

R Gonzalez













* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX















RACE #5 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:09 PM ET




BEST BET: #6 MAGNIFICENT RIDE















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

3-1

6

Magnificent Ride

K Frey



PLACE

5-2

3

Torrid Tommy

R Gonzalez



SHOW

7-2

4

Limited Heatwave

A Cedillo



WILD CARD

3-1

2

Big Hand

J J Hernandez







ALTERNATE 1

7-2

5

Heavens Music

T Baze



ALTERNATE 2

15-1

1

Grazen Sun

K Zonett













* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX















RACE #6 $40,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:42 PM ET




BEST BET: #4 GRITTY GIRL















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

3-1

4

Gritty Girl

K Frey



PLACE

4-1

1

Roses and Candy

T Baze



SHOW

4-1

5

Dancing Dana

J J Hernandez



WILD CARD

5-2

3

Founders Day

M E Smith







ALTERNATE 1

2-1

2

Westward Breeze

B Blanc













* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX















RACE #7 $40,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:15 PM ET




BEST BET: #7 MONGOLIAN FORD















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

5-2

7

Mongolian Ford

E A Maldonado



PLACE

4-1

5

Bud Knight

T Baze



SHOW

6-1

3

Salto de Tigre

R Curatolo



WILD CARD

3-1

1

Papale

D Van Dyke







ALTERNATE 1

4-1

4

Bright Leaf

J J Hernandez



ALTERNATE 2

6-1

6

Clampett

K Frey













* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX















RACE #8 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:49 PM ET















PICK ORDER

M/L

P#

HORSE NAME

JOCKEY















WIN

3-1

2

Besame Mucho

D A Herrera



PLACE

5-2

6

Conundrum

D Van Dyke



SHOW

7-2

4

K P Kwest

T Baze



WILD CARD

3-1

5

Funkenstein

J J Hernandez







ALTERNATE 1

10-1

8

Little Mischief

E A Ellingwood



ALTERNATE 2

15-1

7

Erik the Viking

K Frey













* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX



* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlists - April 9

April 8, 2022

Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlists

Saturday, April 9, 2022

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt





The $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Keeneland, Race 9

9th race – (4) Zandon had a rough trip when third in the Risen Star to start his 3-year-old campaign. With a smooth trip here, he should be able to reach the winner’s circle. (10) Smile Happy rallied for second in the Risen Star but had a better trip than the top pick and must overcome a difficult post here. (1) Commandperformance may be a maiden but he was second in the Grade 1 Champagne and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He should be able to make his presence felt from the rail. (8) Ethereal Road could make things interesting in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta and trifecta box: 1-4-8-10.

The $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2), Aqueduct – race 8

The Wood Memorial (G2) drew a field of eight 3-year-olds including three unbeaten horses that will vie for a purse of $750,000 and a share of the Kentucky Derby qualifying points of 100-40-20-10 to the top four finishers.

(3) Early Voting (A) won both of his races in a career that began in December with a maiden special weight at Aqueduct going a mile. He then stepped up to win the Withers (G3) on the Kentucky Derby trail by more than four-lengths while defeating Un Ojo who went on to win the Rebel (G2) Oaklawn Park. Trainer Chad Brown left Early Voting to train in New York with an eye on the Wood Memorial. (5) Morello won all three of his races at Aqueduct for trainer Steve Asmussen. Morello moved from a maiden win to the Jimmy Winkfield and then the Gotham, winning each by open-lengths with a significant increase in speed figures each time. He increased in distance each race finally going a mile in the Gotham. (1) Mo Donegal is also a winner at the Big A when he took down the Remsen (G2) in December. In his 2022 debut he was a late rallying third in the Holy Bull (G3) behind White Abarrio and Simplification who both won their next starts on the Derby trail. (7) A. P.’s Secret had his heels clipped in the Fountain of Youth (G2) when he was in third-place with a chance to win and then lost all of his momentum. Betting strategy: Exacta box: 1, 3, 5, 7. Trifecta box: 1, 3, 5, 7.

The $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1), Santa Anita – race 6

The Santa Anita Derby (G1) drew a field of six including the two best 3-year-olds in the west that will vie for a purse of $750,000 and a share of the Kentucky Derby qualifying points of 100-40-20-10 to the top four finishers.

(3) Forbidden Kingdom was the very fast front-end winner of his two starts this year in the San Vicente (G2) and then the San Felipe (G2) as he stretched out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. The Richard Mandella runner seems to be much more relaxed this year when allowed to settle on the lead. (4) Messier was moved to the barn of trainer Tim Yakteen to try and qualify for the Kentucky Derby. His 15-length victory in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) back in February overwhelmed an uncompetitive field. The two-month layoff may be of concern when you try and choose between the top two. (5) Win the Day moved from turf to dirt and broke his maiden by more than five-lengths for Doug O’Neill. (6) Talba was also moved to Tim Yakteen after his debut victory last month that earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. Betting strategy: Exacta: 3 with 4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 9, 2022

April 8, 2022

Race 7 at Keeneland | Saturday April 9 | Post Time 3:55 PM Eastern

Madison Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward


The Madison Stakes is always a thrilling race, no much more than this year with last year’s winner Kimari (6) returning and last year’s Madison runner-up Bell’s the One (5) returning as well, plus other horses which have won similar stakes races.

In spite of the two powerhouse mares above, the NOW horse is Just One Time (4), a phrase many a bettor has shouted in their lifetimes. Just One Time is a lightly raced, newly turned four year old with a record of five-for-six in her career. She’s thrown in just one clunker in her lifetime and better still she enters the race off a win in a nearly identical race to this one, the seven furlong Inside Information Stakes in Florida at the end of January. She loves short rests like the one she’s coming back from here and she can stalk the pace or rally from far back as well. Her last two workouts were spectacular and she still has improving to do as a four year old compared to most of the rest of these which are five and six so I give her slight preference.

That being said, Kimari (6), being seven- for-10 in the U.S., is one tough mare. She is a perfect two-for-two at Keeneland including last year’s Madison and she won her 2022 comeback last month after four months off and is on a pattern just as she was last year when winning this race.

Bell’s the One (5) has won 11 of 22 races and $1.5 million dollars in her career which includes three wins at Keeneland. She is making her 2022 debut and her fast closing runner-up finish behind Kimari in last year’s Madison came off a layoff so another “A” race is likely.

Club Car (8) is not a win contender for me but it would be a mistake to leave her off any exacta or trifecta tickets played, evidenced by her career record (5-10-5 in 24 races) in which she has demonstrated she is competitive but just shy of good enough to win these kinds of races. She missed in last fall’s TCA Stakes by a neck to Bell’s the One and was second to that one again one month later in the Dream Supreme Stakes at Churchill Downs.



Win bets:

Just One Time (4) to win at odds of 9 to 5.

Please note that minimum odds on Kimari (6) and on Bell’s the One (5) are around 9 to 5 as well but in this case I think the value will be on only Just One Time as far as a profitable win wager is concerned.

Exacta:

Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5) and Kimari (6) over Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5), Kimari (6) and Club Car (8).

Trifecta:

Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5) and Kimari (6) over ALL over Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5), Kimari (6) and Club Car (8).

When the exacta and trifecta above are both played, we can win if any two of the three main contenders (Just One Time, Bell’s The One) finish first and second or first and third, with any horse finishing second, and we can win both bets if any of the top three selections wins then if any two of those three plus Club Car finishes second and third.

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Keeneland FULLCARD Hotlist - April 9

April 8, 2022

Today’s Keeneland Hot List fullcard selections
Saturday, April 9, 2022
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Day

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (4) Scotland Yard set the pace at Fair Grounds in his debut but settled for second. Should appreciate the short stretch here. (11) Pioneering Spirit just missed with a wide rally. Will be a force if he can overcome an outside post. (7) Magia Nera missed by a neck last time and deserves respect here. (12) Enough Already has talent but landed a tough post.

2nd race – (10) Jeeper was an improved second last time and should graduate here. (6) Bourbon Heist adds blinkers and should fare better than a fifth-place finish last time. (9) Civics Class could be a threat in his debut. (5) Emirates Road might be better suited on a fast track.

3rd race - (5) Nevisian Sunrise can start her 2022 campaign on a winning note after closing last year with a third in a stakes. (8) Millefeuille was second after a long layoff and should be the main rival. (3) Longpants Required will appreciate a return to turf. (4) Pentagon had a useful prep for this at Tampa.

4th race – (9) Macallan was a sharp winner at Tampa for Pletcher and looks best in this spot. (5) Naval Aviator missed by a head last time and will be a main contender. (10) Iron Works is working nicely for this start and should be formidable. (3) American Sanctuary may appreciate the stretchout.

5th race – The Commonwealth Stakes, G3 - (5) Nashville finally returned to top form last time and looks best here. (7) South Bend could be a menace in the stretch. (10) Prevalence seems razor sharp and should be a prime threat. (1) Manny Wah may work out a good trip from the rail.

6h race – The Appalachian Stakes Presented by Japan Racing Association - (4) Dolce Zel rallied nicely to win her U.S. debut and can make it two in a row here. (3) Spendarella looks like the one to catch in the stretch. (2) An Agent Mistake was second in a Santa Anita stakes and merits consideration here. (7) Ouraika should handle the added ground with aplomb.

7th race – The Madison Stakes, G1 - (5) Bell’s the One is now 6 but still looks best in this field and should be hard to fend off in the stretch. (8) Club Car was second to the top pick on a couple of occasions last year and can complete the exacta here. (9) Kalypso makes her first start since being moved from Baffert and seems ready for a sharp try for Asmussen. (3) Lady Rocket has keen early speed and should be tough to reel in.

8th race – The Shakertown Stakes, G2 - (10) Golden Pal makes his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and seems on edge for a big effort. (9) Filo Di Arianna hasn’t raced since June but looked good enough in his North American debut to be a factor here. (8) Johnny Unleashed might figure in the exotics here. (5) Gear Jockey could be dangerous on his best try.

9th race – The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, G1 - (4) Zandon had a rough trip when third in the Risen Star to start his 3-year-old campaign. With a smooth trip here, he should be able to reach the winner’s circle. (10) Smile Happy rallied for second in the Risen Star but had a better trip than the top pick and must overcome a difficult post here. (1) Commandperformance may be a maiden but he was second in the Grade 1 Champagne and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He should be able to make his presence felt from the rail. (8) Ethereal Road could make things interesting in the final furlong.

10th race – (11) Into Vanishing wasn’t helped by the post position draw, but has the most talent and gets the nod in this spot. (9) Tabor Hall has been away since June but is working quickly for her return. (12) Semble Juste gets Lasix again and is worth a long look. (4) Illiogami broke her maiden here and should be in the mix.

11th race – (10) Momos has plenty of speed and may not look back from an outside post. (11) Artemus Citylimits has been no worse than third in his last 10 starts and definitely belongs in the exotics. (4) Infinite has been away for a year but Ward excels off the layoff. (7) Souper Dormy looms a stretch threat here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Hotlist - April 9

April 8, 2022

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, April 9, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race [Alw 82000 N1X, 6F] – (2) Timed Out (A) has a pair of seconds since coming back from a long layoff. Last time she lost a head bob after being bumped and badly herded down the stretch. (1) Monshun won her debut at Saratoga last summer and then returned last month to finish second in the Cicada. She will get Lasix for the first time in this allowance as a 3-year-old. (6) Fight on Lucy also has two place-finishes in her most recent starts at this allowance level. (5) Lanfrankophile was the winner of a starter allowance at the Big A last time.

3rd race [Md Sp Wt, 1 mi TURF] – (1) Howe Street (B) was scratched before what was supposed to be his debut after an incident in the paddock at Aqueduct. Before his bad behavior he looked like a horse with lots of talent. (11) Al’s Rocket has been off since December when the turf course closed at Aqueduct. He finished second twice then and now is a gelding and gets Lasix for Todd Pletcher. (4) Corton Charlemagne sold for $1.25 million and makes his first start for the Clement barn. He is a half-brother of Neolithic and Travel Column. (9) Cognitive Bias will debut for Chad Brown and is out of a mare that produced 2 stakes winners already.

10th race [Gazelle (G3), 1 1/8 mi] – (5) Venti Valentine is just a neck short of being undefeated in her four-race career. In the Demoiselle (G2) as a juvenile she was beaten by the talented Nest. In her 2022 debut in the Busher at Aqueduct, the New York-bred won by seven lengths. She is a half-sister to the 2019 Busher winner Espresso Shot who was also trainer by Jorge Abreu. (6) Classy Edition is another talented NY-bred and she was unbeaten as a 2-year-old for Todd Pletcher. In her first start of the year she ran second behind the currently undefeated filly Kathleen O. in the Davona Dale (G2) at Gulfstream Park. (1) Morning Matcha finished in the top three in all nine of her starts including the Busanda at the Big A in January. (4) Shotgun Hattie was transferred to the New York barn of trainer Bill Morey and won the Ruthless in February and then was second behind the top choice in the Busher.

11th race [Bay Shore (G3), 7F] – (6) Highly Respected (A) was a debut winner for Chad Brown in February at Aqueduct against a very strong field which was evident when you notice that he won at very high odds of 7-1 for a Brown first-time starter. (5) Dean’s List won his first two races for Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream and then was second in the Gotham (G3) on the Kentucky Derby trail after setting the pace. He showed a lot of courage battling down the stretch in that one-turn mile and should appreciate the cut back in distance to seven furlongs. (9) Wit was an open-length winner of his first two starts last year which included the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga. He was then second in the Hopeful (G1) and third in the Champagne (G1). This will be his first of this year for the Pletcher runner. (10) Life Is Great ran behind the unbeaten Wood Memorial favorite in Morello in his last two starts. Expect him to compete down the stretch for a top three finish.



Best bets: Timed Out (2nd); Venti Valentine (10th). Best value: Howe Street (3rd); Highly Respected (11th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 2 – 4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne



Hawthorne - Race 3

$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / 50 Cent Pick 6 (Races 3-8) / $1 Daily Double



Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 3:40P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 9 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2021 - 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * IMINDYCATBIRDSEAT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse r anks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KREWE CHIEF: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).



3

IMINDYCATBIRDSEAT

5/2


3/1




7

KREWE CHIEF

7/2


3/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

IMINDYCATBIRDSEAT

3


5/2

Stalker

91


80


76.3


77.5


74.0




5

BORA BORA

5


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

79


78


72.8


61.8


50.8




1

ROAR OF THE LION

1


9/2

Trailer

81


73


44.8


68.2


59.2




7

KREWE CHIEF

7


7/2

Trailer

98


94


43.8


80.2


75.2




4

WHEREWEGOIN

4


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

88


73


75.6


64.4


54.4




6

RENEGADE BOB

6


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

84


75


58.1


54.3


43.8




2

IRISH MAJOR

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

86


83


54.6


65.8


60.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones
Apr 09 '22, 4:10 PM in 40m
MLB | CLE vs KC

Play on: [B]UNDER 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker
Apr 09 '22, 6:05 PM in 2h
NHL | Panthers vs Predators

Play on: Predators +135 at Ace

Free Pick on Predators

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin
Apr 09 '22, 6:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Pelicans vs Grizzlies

Play on: [B]Pelicans +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy
Apr 09 '22, 6:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Pelicans vs Grizzlies

Play on: [B]UNDER 232

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow
Apr 09 '22, 7:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Canadiens vs Maple Leafs

Play on: UNDER 7 -115

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Canadiens/Maple Leafs under 7 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Timothy Black
Apr 09 '22, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | NYM vs WAS

Play on: UNDER 10 -115

1* Best Bet on Mets/Nationals under 10 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon
Apr 09 '22, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Mets vs Nationals

Play on: Nationals +148 at BetCris

FREE PLAY on Nationals +148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins
Apr 09 '22, 8:05 PM in 4h
NHL | Islanders vs Blues

Play on: UNDER 6 -120

1 Dimer on Islanders vs Blues under 6 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee
Apr 09 '22, 8:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Dodgers vs Rockies

Play on: Rockies +135 at William Hill

FREE PICK: Colorado Rockies +135
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 962
I'll roll the dice on the Rockies at +135 on the money line. It's really a good price to back Colorado and no surprise given how inflated the lines will be this year on the Dodgers. Rockies will have German Marquez on the mound. He seemed to figure out pitching at Coors Field last year, posting a 3.67 ERA in 18 home starts (5.38 ERA in 14 road starts).
Rockies have won 14 of his last 18 home starts and are 7-0 on the money line in his last 7 home starts as an underdog.
Marquez also has a pretty good history against the Dodgers. He has a 3.06 ERA and 1.175 WHIP over 11 starts. Colorado won both of his starts against LA last year and have won 3 in a row overall. Give me the Rockies +135!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA
Apr 09 '22, 8:40 PM in 5h
NBA | Warriors vs Spurs

Play on: UNDER 220 -123

ASA free play on UNDER 220 Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - If we take every NBA teams last five games to date and look for the best defensive numbers, we find the Warriors and Spurs on top of the list. Golden State has allowed just 1.070-points per possession, the Spurs 1.080PPP over each teams last five games which ranks them 1st and 2nd in the entire NBA. If we examine those same five games for both clubs, we find the Warriors are 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.086PPP, the Spurs are 13rh at 1.185PPP. But the Spurs are going to struggle to score in this game with a depleted lineup. San Antonio is electing to rest guys for the play-in game against New Orleans instead of trying to capture home court in that contest. The Spurs are sitting their five leading scorers for the season and a unit that averages 64.8PPG. Getting buckets will be tough, especially against a Warriors defense that has allowed 112 or less in four straight games. Golden State is top five in scoring defense, 2nd in FG% defense, 4th in 3PT% D and 5th in defensive rebounding. The Warriors are in a situation where they need a win here to maintain the 3rd overall seed in the West, but also look to rest some vets heading into the postseason (Thompson is out today). In the most recent meeting in late March these two combined for only 218 total points which is what we expect again today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price
Apr 09 '22, 8:40 PM in 5h
NBA | Warriors vs Spurs

Play on: [B]Spurs +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
Apr 09 '22, 9:07 PM in 5h
MLB | Astros vs Angels

Play on: Astros -101 at BetVegas

1* Free Pick on Astros -101

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus
Apr 09 '22, 10:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Coyotes vs Golden Knights

Play on: Coyotes +320 at Ace

1* Free Sharp Play on Coyotes +320

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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