Tuesday 2/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Fair Grounds - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 Twirling Roses
He scratched from a Saturday stakes spot in favor of this allowance run, and he figures for a really nice trip while tracking what figures to be an honest pace. Playable.


#6 Flint Ridge
No knocks on the recent form with two local blowout wins, and he earned the step up here in razor-sharp form. He has previously struggled a bit at this kind of level -- that's the main reason I'm standing against. Willing to let him step up and score today.


#2 Spartan Army
He hasn't shown a whole lot in most of his races, but he'll run as a gelding for the first time today and might get a decent pace to rally into. Price chance for a piece.


Race Summary
Flint Ridge handles these if he's able to bring something similar to his last two, but he's rising in class again while meeting a couple other capable forward players, and he might be vulnerable late after having to win an early battle.


Fair Grounds - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Oeuvre
She is still working bullets off another win, and she is looking for her fifth in a row here and ninth win in her last 10 starts. Tough to argue with her reliable form.


#5 Perfect Happiness
Think she has a claim on top honors here if she can bring her best stuff, as she should be in line for a great trip while in touch with the early splits.


#3 Astute
She was favored over Oeuvre off the nearly two-year layoff last time out, and she didn't get the cleanest of runs that day. She rallied with some energy and has some room to come forward with that race under her belt.


Race Summary
Oeuvre is as reliable as they come right now, and she'll run on anything. Her tactical pace should keep her in another perfect spot today, and her baseline effort makes her tough again.


Fair Grounds - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#10 Chipeee
The form has not been much since the claim, but both of those tries came for twice this price, and there are a lot of forward/chasing players in here who figure to have trouble staying late. Chance to pick them up?


#2 Friend's Do Care
He didn't stay going two turns last out, but his two-back sprint try with similar wasn't all bad. He might have a tough go with some other pace stacked up outside of him, but he might be capable of a bounce-back effort at a decent price.


#6 Astrologysprotege
Chasing pace hasn't stayed all that well in recent starts, but he has been in for at least twice this price, and maybe his pace plays in a dangerous way here on the drop -- even with some early company.


Race Summary
Chipeee has some room to bounce back while dropping back to the level of the claim, and I'm hoping the dreadful form against better will keep the price playable enough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Turf Paradise - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 BRITE TAN (5-1)
Right set-up, right price, can notch first victory at this distance.


#6 BIG AL’S PRINCESS (7-
Seeks third easy win in a row for these connections.


#3 SHESAHEATWAVE (5-2)
Ran away from Arizona-bred rivals and remained eligible for this spot.


Race Summary
BRITE TAN chased the 1-to-5 winner while 4-wide and finished a clear second at this level two starts back. She cuts back to a short sprint and gets plenty of pace to rally into, making her a good win and place bet.


Turf Paradise - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#2 SUPERSTAR BEA (6-1)
Draws rail, gets speed to run at, price attached.


#5 FLYING TO THE LINE (5-2)
Has five wins on grass, rest of the field has six.


#3 LILA’S LUCKY LADY (8-
Upstaged series of in-money finishes with win for higher tag.


Race Summary
SUPERSTAR BEA rallied 6-wide and finished 3-1/2 lengths behind morning-line favorite LILA’S LUCKY LADY at this distance on turf. She’s worth a price shot to turn the tables with a much livelier pace to run at. Bet to win and place.


Turf Paradise - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 BEL RAGAZZO (6-1)
Improved try for new barn, swung widest, finished with run.


#5 RAVINA LANE (7-2)
Steady gain at 6-1/2F, makes third start of cycle for Diodoro.


#8 BLUES RAPPER (4-1)
Finished third in 7 of 19 starts at one mile, most at Turf Paradise.


Race Summary
BEL RAGAZZO is a live longshot in his third try at this level. He ran a deceptively good race for his new connections, getting bumped before launching a very wide rally nearing the stretch. Bet to win and place or play a 6-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=sun0221zf.pdf&exp=02/23/2023&pds=SUN_-_02/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=SUN&SAP=FREEPICS)


Sunland Park - Race 6

.50 Pick 4(Races 6-7-8-9)/$1 Exacta/$1 Trifecta/.10 Superfecta



Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $15,400 • Post: 2:37P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SCOTTY WHO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DUBRONSKY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. GLENDORA MINECAT: Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating. TOTALLY TIGER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STOCK DEAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.



2

DUBRONSKY

9/5


5/1




7

GLENDORA MINECAT

3/1


6/1




1

TOTALLY TIGER

7/2


7/1




4

STOCK DEAL

8/1


8/1




6

SCOTTY WHO

10/1


9/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

SCOTTY WHO

6


10/1

Front-runner

84


60


64.2


55.8


46.8




2

DUBRONSKY

2


9/5

Stalker

86


84


52.4


75.0


70.5




7

GLENDORA MINECAT

7


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

86


76


68.2


74.2


69.2




1

TOTALLY TIGER

1


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

84


78


66.0


71.2


64.2




4

STOCK DEAL

4


8/1

Alternator/Trailer

87


75


57.2


74.2


68.7




3

FORT STANTON SCOUT

3


9/2

Alternator/Non-contender

72


69


61.0


50.8


38.8




5

LOOKING FOR BULL

5


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

73


60


52.8


62.8


50.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair GroundsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=fg0221zf.pdf&exp=02/23/2023&pds=FG_-_02/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=FG&SAP=FREEPICS)


Fair Grounds - Race 7

Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-9) / Daily Double



Optional Claiming $17,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $51,000 • Post: 4:15P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $17,500. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TWIRLING ROSES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMas ter Power Rating. ZIPPIN GIGI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FLINT RIDGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



4

TWIRLING ROSES

7/2


7/2




5

ZIPPIN GIGI

3/1


7/1




6

FLINT RIDGE

2/1


7/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

WISE ANCHOR

1


6/1

Front-runner

89


75


95.0


83.0


72.0




6

FLINT RIDGE

6


2/1

Front-runner

88


98


92.4


82.0


75.5




5

ZIPPIN GIGI

5


3/1

Front-runner

99


97


78.0


84.0


80.0




7

PRADO'S PRIORITY

7


5/1

Front-runner

95


91


75.0


81.8


73.3




4

TWIRLING ROSES

4


7/2

Stalker

98


94


78.4


93.8


90.8




2

SPARTAN ARMY

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

91


90


82.2


79.6


70.6




3

RUSSIAN TANK

3


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

79


70


25.7


64.6


50.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=prx0221zm.htm&exp=02/23/2023&pds=PRX_-_02/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=PRX&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Parx Racing - Race #8 - Post: 3:10pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 MY IMAGINATION (ML=6/1)
#4 ONE BITE (ML=9/2)


MY IMAGINATION - This gelding is in nice form, having run a strong race on February 7th, finishing third. Trainer, Morey, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each race he keeps getting closer. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 64, is tops in this group. Last time out at Parx Racing this horse finished ahead of today's M/L favorite. Potential play if the public follows the morning line odds. ONE BITE - Took a significant drop in class rating last time around the track at Parx Racing. Returning to a similar level in this field. Should perform well right here. Sub-par performance last out at Parx Racing was due to the off-going (he finished fifth). Expect better in this race under normal track conditions. Servis is giving this one Lasix for the first time. Nice.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TATUM (ML=2/1), #1 COLES CONUNDRUM (ML=5/2), #8 FIRST TO LAST (ML=5/1),

TATUM - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint events recently. Doubtful to see him doing it this time out either. Finished fourth last time out of the box. Would have to perk up to be there at the wire in today's race. COLES CONUNDRUM - Placed much too far in the rear in the early stages of the last route affair will probably make it tough to make an impact today in this sprint event. Today's race is 7 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance race in the last two months. Not the greatest of signs. Will be tough for this mount to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list. FIRST TO LAST - Would have to get much more than the morning line of 5/1 to bet on this horse.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 MY IMAGINATION is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race CoursePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=mvr0221zz.htm&exp=02/23/2023&pds=MVR_-_02/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=MVR&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $24300 Class Rating: 78

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 ).




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 CLASSIC MO 7/2




# 1A SHOW SLIDING HOME 5/2




# 4 OAKEN 3/1




CLASSIC MO looks to be the bet in here. This equine is at the top in this group of horses in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Skerrett has this gelding running well and is a formidable pick based on the strong speed figures recorded in sprint races lately. Could best this group here, showing formidable numbers of late. SHOW SLIDING HOME - Should expect this racer to be close up at the finish versus these mounts. Could provide positive returns based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 71. OAKEN - The average class figure alone makes this entrant a solid contender. Reliable average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a key contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=tup0221zm.htm&exp=02/23/2023&pds=TUP_-_02/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=TUP&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 3:23pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,400 Class Rating: 66

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 ABOVE THE STARS (ML=8/1)
#4 STAR FINALITY (ML=4/1)


ABOVE THE STARS - She finished in the place spot Jan 16th, but was well clear of the show horse. My peers and I have made cash playing horses with this type of speed. Follow my advice and do the same. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the 2nd time. This one fits the bill. STAR FINALITY - Leaney brings her back again. I propose you stick with this strong filly. Have to forget about that last race on the grass. This filly should do better hitting the main track in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 COASTLINE HOTTIE (ML=9/2), #5 OCEAN OF LIES (ML=5/1), #2 TOP HAT TIGRESS (ML=5/1),

COASTLINE HOTTIE - This filly hasn't had any positive efforts in sprint races in the last sixty days. Would have to improve off that fifth place finish last time out to make an impact here. This filly earned a speed figure in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. OCEAN OF LIES - Not the proper 'spot' in this affair. TOP HAT TIGRESS - Should be difficult for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ABOVE THE STARS - Earnings per start is a sign of class. I often play horses like this one that are number one in the group in earnings per start.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #8 ABOVE THE STARS to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/2 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx RacingPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=prx0221zz.htm&exp=02/23/2023&pds=PRX_-_02/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=PRX&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $42000 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 IN MY OPINION 8/1




# 6 FLASHY CHARGE 5/2




# 1 MOONBOOTS 7/2




My choice for this race is IN MY OPINION especially at a long price. Is a strong contender based on figures put up lately under today's conditions. The Equibase speed fig of 73 from her last contest looks respectable in here. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group of animals lately. FLASHY CHARGE - Last time out, this mare was up against a much tougher bunch. Shows solid speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. MOONBOOTS - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. She ought to be carefully examined given the very good speed figs.