Saturday 2/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=op0225zf.pdf&exp=02/27/2023&pds=OP_-_02/25/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/25/2023;TRACK_CODE=OP&SAP=FREEPICS)


Oaklawn Park - Race 3

Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)



Optional Claiming $62,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 104 • Purse: $106,000 • Post: 1:03P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $40,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED SINCE JULY 1, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 SINCE NOVEMBER 25, 2022 ALLOWED 3 LBS. $30,000 SINCE AUGUST 25, 2022 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. TRIDENT HIT is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THOMAS SHELBY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CADDO RIVER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MAX PLAYER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TRIDENT HIT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PERFECT FLIGHT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



6

THOMAS SHELBY

4/1


6/1




5

CADDO RIVER

3/1


6/1




8

MAX PLAYER

5/1


6/1




3

TRIDENT HIT

12/1


8/1




2

PERFECT FLIGHT

8/1


9/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

THOMAS SHELBY

6


4/1

Front-runner

107


99


98.8


91.8


86.3




4

BACKGROUND

4


15/1

Front-runner

101


94


80.0


91.0


80.0




2

PERFECT FLIGHT

2


8/1

Alternator/Front-runner

105


97


85.4


98.0


88.0




1

FROSTED GRACE

1


2/1

Stalker

101


99


87.4


89.8


76.8




5

CADDO RIVER

5


3/1

Stalker

105


101


76.4


100.2


95.2




8

MAX PLAYER

8


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

111


109


95.2


96.2


88.2




3

TRIDENT HIT

3


12/1

Trailer

106


96


77.0


93.0


83.5




7

MYSTIC NIGHT

7


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

105


105


63.8


90.4


81.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=gp0225zf.pdf&exp=02/27/2023&pds=GP_-_02/25/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/25/2023;TRACK_CODE=GP&SAP=FREEPICS)


Gulfstream Park - Race 7

$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 7-12)



SO $16,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 3:08P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS SINCE FEBRUARY 25, 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. DANVILLE is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * UNCORK THE BOTTLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power R ating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CONCRETE GLORY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. CARAMEL CHIP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FROSTED ARMOUR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



6

UNCORK THE BOTTLE

7/2


7/2




5

CONCRETE GLORY

7/5


7/1




1

CARAMEL CHIP

7/2


8/1




2

FROSTED ARMOUR

8/1


10/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

CONCRETE GLORY

5


7/5

Front-runner

89


97


77.8


78.2


71.7




2

FROSTED ARMOUR

2


8/1

Front-runner

90


82


68.8


79.6


71.6




7

HIERRO

7


15/1

Front-runner

89


90


0.0


0.0


0.0




6

UNCORK THE BOTTLE

6


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

95


92


66.8


89.8


87.3




1

CARAMEL CHIP

1


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

92


86


60.4


83.6


77.1




3

DANVILLE

3


6/1

Trailer

92


89


0.0


0.0


0.0




4

SUN VIKING

4


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

89


83


44.6


54.0


41.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=tp0225zm.htm&exp=02/27/2023&pds=TP_-_02/25/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/25/2023;TRACK_CODE=TP&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Turfway Park - Race #4 - Post: 7:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 BIGGIE (ML=8/1)
#2 LEAD ACTOR (ML=20/1)
#4 MY FAVORITE UNCLE (ML=7/2)


BIGGIE - After the event aboard this horse on February 10th, the rider is going to know the gelding much better. The jock/conditioner twosome of Ayala and Martinez has a strong ROI together. LEAD ACTOR - On board this entrant on February 8th and Musarro is back again in the irons this time. This gelding is in good form, having run a good race on Feb 8th, finishing third. This steed broke from the outside at Turfway Park last time out, racing 1 mile, but is getting a low post position in this race, which should help his chances today. This gelding's last speed figure is good enough to score here, I'll invest in him back again this time out. MY FAVORITE UNCLE - This gelding's last speed figure earned on Feb 10th is in the top spot in last race Equibase speed figures. I like this gelding. Has the top earnings per race in today's contest. This horse broke from the outside at Turfway Park last time out, racing 1 mile, but is getting a low post position in this race, which should help his chances today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LAYTOWN (ML=3/1), #5 WHISKEY ROAN (ML=5/1), #7 OFF THE CHARTS (ML=5/1),

LAYTOWN - Really had to give me more than that last out. Never made much of an impact. WHISKEY ROAN - Hard to invest in any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. OFF THE CHARTS - The ninth place finish in the last race was not the greatest.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #1 BIGGIE on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf ParadisePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=tup0225zz.htm&exp=02/27/2023&pds=TUP_-_02/25/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/25/2023;TRACK_CODE=TUP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10400 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 FLYIN BY 7/2




# 1 SQUARE FOOTAGE 7/2




# 5 KEEPINMYPROMISE 9/2




FLYIN BY looks to be a very strong contender. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. Has to be carefully examined in this competition if only for the quite good speed figure posted in the last affair. SQUARE FOOTAGE - She looks solid in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Has a very strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me give the nod to this filly. KEEPINMYPROMISE - Pierce has this mare moving well and is a very good choice based on the very good speed figures recorded in sprint races recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=tam0225zm.htm&exp=02/27/2023&pds=TAM_-_02/25/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/25/2023;TRACK_CODE=TAM&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:46pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,500 Class Rating: 65

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 ZIP CODE ENVY (ML=2/1)


ZIP CODE ENVY - This filly's last figure is strong enough to triumph here, I'll play her right back in today's event. A big drop in class figure points from her Oct 5th race at Presque Isle Downs. Based on that data point, I will give this horse the edge. I like this filly. Has the highest EPS (earnings per start) in here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CLASSIC DREAMER (ML=5/2), #6 BON DIA (ML=3/1), #3 BEER BALI (ML=8/1),

CLASSIC DREAMER - If she goes off anywhere near the oddsmaker's morning line of 5/2, I'll have to pass. BON DIA - Would have to get quite a bit more than the morning line of 3/1 to play this mount. BEER BALI - Would have to get quite a bit more than the morning line odds of 8/1 to wager on this horse.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ZIP CODE ENVY - Won't necessarily be trailing the field in the early going. Should start kicking it in at the top of the stretch and roll on to victory. Bet this closer.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #4 ZIP CODE ENVY to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [2,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=sun0225zz.htm&exp=02/27/2023&pds=SUN_-_02/25/2023&var=RACE_DATE=02/25/2023;TRACK_CODE=SUN&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $12100 Class Rating: 63

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE AND FOUR YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 10 ONE BIG CHECK 7/2




# 4 A RELIABLE CARTEL V 6/1




# 7 A DASHING DELILAH 8/1




ONE BIG CHECK supports the bet in here. Will almost certainly go to the lead and should never look back. Is a solid contender - given the 61 speed figure from her most recent race. Strong average Equibase speed figs in short races make this racer a contender. A RELIABLE CARTEL V - Ran a sharp last race. Is a sharp contender based on figures posted recently under today's conditions. A DASHING DELILAH - Should be considered as she drops to compete against this easier field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Saturday, February 25th 2023 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
FAIR GROUNDS
RACE #7
TIME: 5:15 PM EST
PICK: BET #5 Mangum 9/2 odds to win @ Bovada (http://record.bettingpartners.com/_pO1vV3scjG8UbyPgnoR23mNd7ZgqdRLk/1/)

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, February 25
Posted on February 24, 2023 by David Aragona

RACE 3: STARQUIST (#3)

Maker’s Candy (#4) didn’t run a particularly eye-catching race on debut, especially given the foggy conditions. Yet the word was out that he would deliver a much improved effort in his second start, as he was somewhat surprisingly bet down to favoritism for the stretch-out. He ran to that support and then some, as he traveled boldly into the race and drew away with authority when asked. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure towers over this field and the fig looks legitimate based on the merits of those behind him. The one drawback is that Mike Maker is just 5 for 40 (13%, $1.04 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes over 5 years. Main rival Neural Network (#5) like he could be any kind coming out of that impressive debut victory in November. He rated kindly off a moderate pace and displayed a nice kick when asked for his best in the lane. Yet he wasn’t quite up to the challenge when he tackled the Jerome against open company last time. Brown now regroups, dropping him in against New York-breds, but this is a pretty solid field. D’ont Lose Cruz (#2) has run well in all of his starts, never finishing out of the exacta. Yet I have some concerns about him stretching out in distance. I actually prefer Starquist (#3), who exits the same races. He simply ran out of ground two back when making his late rally in the Notebook. Then last time he had to make a wide run into the stretch whereas the winner saved all the ground. This colt was also hanging on his left lead through the lane, which seemed to mute his kick. He didn’t finish in his only prior attempt at a mile, but that was just his second start. He gives the physical impression that more distance should benefit him, he’s by 19% dirt route sire Nyquist, and his dam was a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He also gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis for this.

RACE 7: CAPTAINSDAUGHTER (#9)

There appears to be plenty of pace signed on in this N1X allowance, which could complicate the task of likely favorite Kant Hurry Love (#5). She’s shown contesting the lead on the Pace Projector along with about 5 other horses in a fast pace scenario. That will be a different type of trip than she’s enjoyed in her last couple of victories, where she’s been able to either control on the front end or share slow paces. She obviously has the talent to win here, but I don’t think she offers any value. I’m a little more interested in the horse I pegged as the second-choice on the morning line. Kitten’s Appeal (#7) exits a race on Jan. 29 along with several other horses in this field. She lost by a neck but may have run the best race of anyone. She didn’t break that well and had to rush up into a stalking position on the backstretch. She then advanced to make an early bid for the lead and never stopped fighting through the lane. A repeat of that performance will certainly put her in the mix here, but she’s another who could get caught up in a quick pace. I prefer the third-place finisher from that Jan. 29 affair. Captainsdaughter (#9) may have been ridden a bit too conservatively, as Eric Cancel was seemingly waiting for that race to fall apart. However, the speed didn’t develop as much as expected on the front end, and he ended up leaving this filly with too much to do. She still put in a solid rally for third, but I think she’s landed in an even more favorable scenario this time. She may not be the most naturally talented horse in this field, but she possesses a reliable late run when she’s ridden properly. The extra half-furlong of this race should also work to her advantage.

RACE 8: FAR MO POWER (#2)

In the handicapping puzzle that is the Stymie, the most difficult puzzle piece to fit into the larger picture is that of Repo Rocks (#3). He is the key to this race, as the chances of all the other competitors depend on which version of this horse shows up. If Repo Rocks repeats the 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his victory in the Toboggan Stakes, there isn’t a horse in this field that will be able to defeat him. Yet he had never reached that level before and even his prior starts for Jamie Ness at Parx don’t nearly rise to the lofty heights that he achieved last time. He’s obviously a horse that has run well at Aqueduct before. However, he has never been successful beyond 7 furlongs, and the distance of this race is a major factor, as others are proven going this far. I’m certainly afraid of anything the Jamie Ness barn sends out, as his horses will improve suddenly and maintain that form for several starts. Perhaps Repo Rocks in the midst of one of those peaks. However, he’s now going to be a very short price, whereas last time he was 10-1, and I’m just not comfortable endorsing a favorite that still has significant questions to answer. I also have reservations about Miles D (#6), who could be the second choice in this race. There was a time when this Chad Brown trainee would have been pretty formidable against this field. However, he managed just one start during his 4-year-old season, and returned from a one-year layoff last time at Gulfstream with a disappointing effort. I never thought that was the right spot for him, as he drew the rail going a distance that seems too short for him. Yet now he’s back in a one-mile race, perhaps because there are no other options for him. Bourbonic (#1) is more interesting to me at a similar price, since he’s at least in great form right now. He ran pretty well to win that optional claimer 20 days ago, as he closed into a moderate pace and beat a horse who has been on a roll this winter. I’m using him, but my top pick is another Parx shipper. Far Mo Power (#2) will be making his first start outside of his Pennsylvania home base, but I think he stacks up pretty well against the competition. This horse was a surprise winner *– though ultimately disqualified – in the Parx Dirt Mile last year, finishing in a photo with the classy Mind Control. While that 12-1 upset might seem like an outlier, he had run extremely well after getting a poor trip in his prior start. He then got another nightmare journey two back when he got badly fouled in traffic heading into the clubhouse turn. He got back on track last time with a nice confidence builder, earning a strong 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I think he’s going to be perfectly suited to this one-turn mile at Aqueduct, and the price should be more than fair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fair Grounds Feb. 25: Two stakes featured in Late Pick 5
Kevin Kilroy

There are two Louisiana-bred stakes in the Late Pick 5 sequence at Fair Grounds on Saturday. One is wide open, and the other looks like an easy single. I see some interesting price shots in a few other legs, so I am going to build a ticket that could pay handsomely.
50-cent Pick 5 = $72
Race Horses
Race 5

2, 3, 7
Race 6

2, 3, 7, 8
Race 7

7
Race 8

2, 5, 6, 9
Race 9

3, 6, 8
Bet live racing at Fair Grounds here
Race 5, 1 Mile, Buttercup’s Song S., 3-year-old state-bred fillies

#2 New Destiny (9-2) figured things out on the win end last out against a tough field including a few in here. Stretches out now, and Jayde Gelner has won 26% of the last 35 sprint-to-routes. #3 Guitar Woman (7-2) flashed talent as a two-year-old, and then put it all together earlier this year when stretching out for the first time. Looks for a third win in a row. #7 Olivia G (7-2) is a half to stakes winner A G’s Charlotte. She ran well going two turns at first asking, and though she could simply run in-the-money one more time, I respect the fact that she could also put it all together and cruise to victory.
Race 6, Turf, About 1 1/16 Miles, Md Sp Wt 50k ,3-year-olds

The two favorites look beatable in here to me. Let’s take the logical longshots. Tough first try on the turf for #2 Ice Time (8-1), who is well bred for the grass. This will be #3 Minnesota Moon’s (8-1) first start on the turf as a three-year-old. He’ll need to step forward, but in Chris Block on the turf I trust. #7 Two Rivers Over (6-1) ran a field-best 11 on Thoro-Graph last time out. If he can transfer his form to the turf, he can beat this field. #8 Scat Danz (6-1) has a big purchase tag, solid morning drills, and a sire who wins with 20% of his first-time-starters.
Race 7, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Half Ours S., 3-year-old state-breds

#7 Jack Hammer (7-5) has run big in all three races, and Bret Calhoun says he still has more to learn, more to show us. Single.

Race 8, 6 Furlongs, OC 80k/N1X, 3-year-old fillies

One step forward from her debut effort for #2 Topsy (3-1), and she could get the lead and never look back. #5 Shoplifter (6-1) gets Lasix for her three-year-old debut. She ran in the Breeders’ Cup and is fresh for a red-hot Eddie Kenneally barn. #6 Just Like Magic (12-1) has been wearing blinkers and working like a filly who’s ready to strut her stuff in her three-year-old debut. #9 Titled Lady (4-1) bounced last race and had a wide trip. Back to form and she will be dangerous.
Race 9, 1 1/16 Miles, OC 17k/N1X, 4-year-olds and up

#3 Trigger Happy (15-1) made a nice step forward for his four-year-old debut and could easily move up once again to beat these. #6 Brigadier General (5-1) will make his first start as a four-year-old, and though he has been win photo-shy, he’s run some big numbers that could beat these. #8 Cousin Larry (4-1) beat a nice field last out, including the next-out winner Master Game. Can he hold that form?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn spot plays for Feb. 25, including Honeybee and Rebel Stakes
Ashley Anderson

Saturday’s Oaklawn card features both the Honeybee (G3) and Rebel (G2), respectively Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races with points awarded on a 50-20-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers.

Below we offer spot plays for the graded stakes as well as the Carousel S. in Race 7 and a competitive allowance optional claimer in Race 8.

Race 7: Carousel S., six furlongs, fillies and mares four years and up

Morning line favorite #5 Yuugiri (2-1) handled a muddy track in a six-furlong allowance at Oaklawn on Dec. 30, wiring the field and beating a next-out winner by 2 1/4 lengths while posting a 96 Brisnet Speed rating. The Shackleford filly was sharp in 2022, with a victory in the Fantasy (G3) and a third in the Honeybee to earn a spot in last year's Kentucky Oaks, where she set the pace early before giving way in the stretch to come home 13th of 14 fillies. The Rodolphe Brisset pupil comes off a nearly two-month layoff here and posted a sharp, four-furlong workout ahead of her sixth stakes attempt. Ricardo Santana Jr. (a 21% winner this meet) will stick with the four-year-old, who is racing on Lasix for the second time.

While Yuugiri will be tough to beat, a few longer shots are enticing among the 11-horse field. #10 Mercy Warren (8-1) romped to a 16-length victory last out in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds over a track labeled good, and her bullet, 47-second four-furlong workout indicates she's sharp and ready in her first stakes effort.

#1 Hazy Command (10-1) is also intriguing from the rail post, which is winning at a 21% clip this meet. The four-year-old Candy Ride granddaughter has won back to back at today's distance since joining the barn of Tom Amoss, and she's never finished out of the money in nine tries at six furlongs. Amoss is a 19% winner with horses that won their last race, and regular rider Rafael Bejarano is an 18% winner this meet.
Race 8: Allowance optional claimer, six furlongs, four-year-olds and up

#1 Flap Jack (2-1) drew a favorable post in this nine-horse optional claimer and will go for his third straight victory, and second since he was claimed by trainer Chris Hartman, a 33% winner this meet. The Oxbow six-year-old wired a $30,000 allowance at this track over muddy ground last out and will keep rider Nik Juarez, a 17% winner at Oaklawn. Flap Jack owns a 10-4-0-1 record at today's distance, and he's 2-for-4 at this track. The pacesetter should be able to get out front early and control the pace throughout.
Race 10: Honeybee S. (G3), 1 1/16 miles, three-year-old fillies

#7 Wet Paint (7-2) triumphed by two lengths over today's rival Taxed last out in the 1 1/16-mile Martha Washington S., in which she recorded a 91 BRIS figure with a 107 Late Pace rating over a wet-fast track. The daughter of Blame was full of run to win going away and proved the stretch-out to 8 1/2 furlongs was well-suited for the three-year-old. Trainer Brad Cox is a 28% winner with horses that won their last race and a 25% winner in graded stakes. Jockey Flavien Prat, who is 4-for-6 at Oaklawn, will retain the mount, and Wet Paint's bullet five-furlong workout on Feb. 19 adds to the appeal.
Race 11: Rebel S. (G2), 1 1/16 miles, three-year-olds

Another highly touted Cox runner, #1 Verifying (2-1) drew the rail out of the 11-horse field and enters off a commanding victory in an allowance optional claimer, where he beat second-place finisher and today's race rival Gun Pilot by 5 1/4 lengths. By Justify, Verifying has since recorded a trio of sharp five-furlong workouts and can improve in his second start off a layoff. Jockey Florent Geroux is 8-2-2-1 at Oaklawn this meet and a 38% winner paired with Cox over the last two months. He'll look to take command from the start in Verifying's second try at 8 1/2 furlongs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lingfield Park: 2023 Winter Derby Plays
TwinSpires Staff

Winter Derby Day Tips and Picks by Timeform

Race 1
Forge Valley Lad
Later Darling
Renardeau
Race 2
Alligator Alley
Miss Nay Never
Tone the Barone
Race 3
Lord North
Tyrrhenian Sea
Forest of Dean
Race 4
Security Code
Notre Belle Bete
Diderot
Race 5
Burglar
Garrick Street
Bear On the Loose
Race 6
Soaring Eagle
Restrict
Crimson Angel
Race 7
Bashful Boy
Minister For Magic
Smart Champion
Race 8
Marion's Boy
Cresta De Vega
Sundayinmay

Lingfield Racing Analysis & Expert Picks
RACE 2

Simon Mapletoft:

EXALTED ANGEL can claim his reward for a string of solid performances in defeat this winter by taking an average renewal of the Hever Sprint S. at Lingfield on Saturday.

Karl Burke’s decision to reach for the first-time visor can give the seven-year-old that vital edge in the

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The Pony Conductor


Oaklawn Park: Rebel Stakes Day Key Horses

Hopefully the rain holds off Saturday. It probably won’t and a great card will be ruined. Skip.
Oaklawn Park Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#5 Improbable Journey (12/1) – When this gelding clears to the front he can win and his early pace figures give him a chance to here. There looks to be some rain in the forecast and the wet track further improves his chances. It’s more probable that he steals this one on the front end.

Other Contenders: #1 Flap Jack (2/1), #3 Senor Jobim (12/1), #6 Spankster (5/2), #8 Albizu (3/1)
Oaklawn Park Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#2 Golden Hornet (4/1) – This is another gelding that has an early pace advantage in an Oaklawn sprint. He showed real grit fighting back after being headed in the stretch last time. The Ductor will back him again today if this morning line holds.

Other Contenders: #4 Osbourne (8/5). #9 Life is Hard (3/1), #10 Fore Left (10/1)

Oaklawn Park Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Honeybee Stakes

#1 Effortlesslyelgant (20/1) – His morning line can’t be accurate. He’ll still be a good price and he’s a wild card stretching out to a route for the first time. He ran a strong number in the slop sprinting last time and this race does not have a lot of other early pace. He should be able to clear from the rail and there’s no telling how far he wants to go. At the price he’ll be, he needs to be included on any passenger’s tickets.

Other Contenders: #3 Grand Love (3/1), #4 Gambling Girl (12/1), #7 Wet Paint (7/2)
Oaklawn Park Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Rebel Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Red Route Run (10/1) – He’s the price the Ductor likes best in the is race and the one he’ll key around. He ran very well in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last fall where he was shut off in the stretch and never quit. He returned off the bench last time and showed a good closing kick behind the odds on favorite Arabian Night. With a step forward 2nd off the layoff he can win this race and he’ll be finishing best. At worse he’ll inject value into the exacta and trifecta.


Oaklawn Park: Rebel Stakes Day Key Horses

Hopefully the rain holds off Saturday. It probably won’t and a great card will be ruined. Skip.
Oaklawn Park Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#5 Improbable Journey (12/1) – When this gelding clears to the front he can win and his early pace figures give him a chance to here. There looks to be some rain in the forecast and the wet track further improves his chances. It’s more probable that he steals this one on the front end.

Other Contenders: #1 Flap Jack (2/1), #3 Senor Jobim (12/1), #6 Spankster (5/2), #8 Albizu (3/1)
Oaklawn Park Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#2 Golden Hornet (4/1) – This is another gelding that has an early pace advantage in an Oaklawn sprint. He showed real grit fighting back after being headed in the stretch last time. The Ductor will back him again today if this morning line holds.

Other Contenders: #4 Osbourne (8/5). #9 Life is Hard (3/1), #10 Fore Left (10/1)
Oaklawn Park Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Honeybee Stakes

#1 Effortlesslyelgant (20/1) – His morning line can’t be accurate. He’ll still be a good price and he’s a wild card stretching out to a route for the first time. He ran a strong number in the slop sprinting last time and this race does not have a lot of other early pace. He should be able to clear from the rail and there’s no telling how far he wants to go. At the price he’ll be, he needs to be included on any passenger’s tickets.

Other Contenders: #3 Grand Love (3/1), #4 Gambling Girl (12/1), #7 Wet Paint (7/2)
Oaklawn Park Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Rebel Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Red Route Run (10/1) – He’s the price the Ductor likes best in the is race and the one he’ll key around. He ran very well in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last fall where he was shut off in the stretch and never quit. He returned off the bench last time and showed a good closing kick behind the odds on favorite Arabian Night. With a step forward 2nd off the layoff he can win this race and he’ll be finishing best. At worse he’ll inject value into the exacta and trifecta.

Punch Neck GIF - Punch Neck Crazy GIFs

Other Contenders: #1 Verifying (2/1), #5 Giant Mischief (5/2), #6 Reincarnate (7/2)
Other Contenders: #1 Verifying (2/1), #5 Giant Mischief (5/2), #6 Reincarnate (7/2)
Oaklawn Park Race 12: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

#7 Midnight Taxes (3/1) – This looks like a chalky finale to the Ductor. #10 Time Andbeyond (5/2) is a formidable favorite after overcoming serious trouble at the start last time. The Ductor is still going to try and beat him with the early pace advantage Midnight Taxes has over this group. This gelding will be able to get the early lead and moving to the Hartman barn, he wont stop. He’ll make thee Ductor’s 2024’s check to uncle Sam much larger.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Great Britain Preview: Plays for Kempton Feb. 25
Alastair Bull

With Cheltenham a little more than two weeks away, there aren’t as many top horses running this week, but Kempton Park does still host three Grade 2 events and a rich handicap.

We will focus on the handicap and offer some spot plays for the others.
Race 3, 10:00 a.m. ET: Coral Trophy Chase (Handicap), 3 miles, open steeplechase
Trophy Chase Selections

#8 Our Power
#12 Cap Du Nord
#3 Clondaw Castle
#5 Annsam

Trophy Chase Wagers

$10 win/$20 show: #8 Our Power
$1 exacta: box 3, 5, 8, 12

There are some high-class horses here — it even includes a three-time Grade 1 winner in #1 Frodon, who admittedly looks past his best and has a big task at the weights here.

Arguably the two best chances are #8 Our Power and #12 Cap Du Nord, and they have come in with contrasting preparations. Our Power has run just once this season, winning the Gold Cup Handicap Chase (G3) at Ascot back in late October. This race, in which he finished third last year, is clearly his big aim, and he should be respected for that.

Cap Du Nord won this last year, but he’s been much busier in the meantime. He’s run five times this season, and after a mixed preparation, was back in the winner’s enclosure just last week in the Swinley Handicap Chase (G3). It was an easy victory, but can he back up in seven days?

Among the others, #3 Clondaw Castle won this two years ago and put up a nice effort at his first run in more than a year when second to Pic D’Orhy in the Silviniaco Conti Chase (G2) Jan. 14. Also worth a thought is #5 Annsam; he was easily beaten by Our Power at Ascot in October but put up a much-improved performance winning by 17 lengths at Kempton in a handicap Jan. 14.

I’m going to support Our Power and look for exactas with the others.
Race 1, 8:50 a.m. ET: Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (G2), 2 miles, 4-year-old hurdlers

#1 Scriptwriter has a five-pound penalty to deal with against his opponents here, but he is the best-performed, having won the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2) in November and finishing second to Comfort Zone in the Finesse Hurdle (G2) Jan 28. He doesn’t have to worry about Comfort Zone here.

$10 win/$20 place: #1 Scriptwriter

Race 2, 9:25 a.m. ET: Pendil Novices’ Chase (G2), 2 9/16 miles, novice chasers

Not the strongest field for a Grade 2 chase. Most of the horses are on the improve, but I’ll go with the most proven horse in #1 Boothill, whose only defeats this season have been behind Grade 1 winners Tommy’s Oscar and Jonbon. He won the Wayward Lad Novices Chase (G2) on this course Dec. 27 and can score again.

$20 win: #1 Boothill

Race 4, 10:40 a.m. ET: Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (G2), 2 miles, novice hurdlers

The best two-mile novice hurdlers are skipping this with Cheltenham a little more than two weeks away, so there is little top-level form among these runners. The only graded stakes form is from #5 Ukantango, second in the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle (G2) at Cheltenham Nov. 13, and he looks a good prospect here. The one to beat him may be #4 Rubaud, who put up a great effort under handicap conditions for second at Kempton Dec. 26. He failed last start, but the addition of a hood should help.

$10 win: #4 Rubaud
$2 exacta: box 4, 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sydney Preview: Spot Plays for Randwick Feb. 25
Alastair Bull

A pair of Group 1 races highlight a strong card of racing at Randwick racecourse in Sydney this weekend.

There are plenty of good races on the undercard, but we will focus on the two most prestigious races.
Race 7, 12:00 a.m. Saturday ET: Surround Stakes (G1), 1,400 meters (about 7 furlongs), 3yo fillies

The big clash here is between Godolphin’s star filly #1 In Secret, an easy winner on her return two weeks ago, and last spring’s Flight Stakes (G1) winner #3 Zougotcha.

In Secret will probably head the market. She was super-impressive when winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1) at Flemington in spring, and returned in style in the Light Fingers (G2) Feb. 11. She is the highest-rated filly in the field and has Hugh Bowman aboard.

However, James McDonald, who has ridden both fillies, is aboard Zougotcha. She was unbeaten in spring, toppling In Secret in the Silver Shadow (G2) before moving up in distance to take the seven-furlong Tea Rose (G2) and the one-mile Flight. At seven furlongs, she may just have the edge, and she should be at much better value than her rival.

Others worth considering for the lower exotic rungs are #8 Sunshine In Paris, #9 Cinderella Days, and the Melbourne visitor #11 Ruthless Dame.

$10 win/$30 show: #3 Zougotcha
$2 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 3 with 8, 9, 11

Race 8, 12:40 a.m. Saturday ET: Chipping Norton Stakes (G1), 1,600 meters (about one mile), 3yos and up

Does anything beat #1 Anamoe? Probably not, especially at a mile. The Cox Plate (G1) winner is targeting the Queen Anne Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot and showed he was as good as ever when winning the Apollo (G2) Feb. 11.

With no other top-class milers in the field, it’s hard to see him being beaten. The only other horse close to his level of ability at a mile is #2 Mo’unga, and he’s not the easiest to follow.

For the exotics, I’d look at the horses that chased Anamoe home in the Apollo, #12 Hinged and #11 Fangirl, and the Hong Kong Mile third-place finisher #5 Laws Of Indices.

$30 win: #1 Anamoe
$1 trifecta: 1 with 2, 5, 11, 12 with 2, 5, 11, 12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Rebel Stakes (G2)
West vs. East in Rebel Stakes Renewal
By: Stuart deVoe, ThorFan Handicapper

The road to the Kentucky Derby is now in full swing since this round of preps offers the winner enough points to get in the starting gate. The top five finishers earn points on a scale of 50-20-15-5. This weekend’s stop is Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas and the $1 million Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. An off track is expected as there is a 60% chance of rain.

A salty group of eleven 3-year-olds, all with Derby dreams, will face the starter and look to grab the lion’s share of this $1 million purse. As handicappers, we must keep in mind that the springtime of a horse’s 3-year-old season is when the most physical and development occurs. Any one of these charges can make a dramatic improvement in mere weeks and a boy becomes a man just like that. We must decipher where each entrant is on that arch of maturation. Not an easy task.

On the human side of things, we find the usual suspects. Steve Asmussen has 3 entered (Powerful, Red Route One & Gun Pilot). Brad Cox has the two morning line favorites (Verifying & Giant Mischief). Baffert sort of has one but that horse (Reincarnate) is now transferred to Tim Yakteen – you know the story. Sprinkle in a little D. Wayne (Bourbon Bash) and McPeek (Frosted Departure), who always enters to see if they fit, and now we have a horse race!

Here's the field:

Verifying (Geroux/Cox) 2-1 – This Justify colt came back last month trouncing N1X allowance foes by over 5 lengths. Verifying beat 2 next out winners, one of which he faces today (Gun Pilot). He was G1 placed over the slop in only his 2nd career start and earned his way into the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile where a poor start dashed his chances. Brad Cox gives a leg up to his main jockey in Florent Geroux. He looks like he means business with the race over the track and the quality he has already displayed. I do question the rail draw for him. He likes to be forward in his races and there seems to be a fair amount of speed to his outside. He may get a very dirty trip. At low odds, I am willing to fade him, but he certainly is a WIN CONTENDER.

Powerful (Castillo/Asmussen) 20-1 – The first of Mr. Steve’s triumvirate seems aggressively spotted off a maiden win and a sprint stake win. Those wins sandwich a poor effort in the G1 Breeder’s Futurity at KEE. Clearly, the nation’s winningest trainer sees something in him. He will be on the engine and is bred to go long and like the slop. He will have to prove it to me for my backing. OUTSIDER

Red Route One (Torres/Asmussen) 10-1 – The second from Mr. Steve seems to rounding into good form as he ran 2nd to Arabian Knight, the current Derby favorite, in the sloppy Southwest here at OP last month. This Winchell homebred will get a pace into which he can close and if the pace is as hot as expected he is not without a chance. That said, he had a perfect set up in his last and was never catching the winner. BOARD CONTENDER

Gun Pilot (Santana/Asmussen) 8-1 – The last of the Mr. Steve brigade in another one on the improve. Verifying dusted him in his two-turn debut but he came back 3 weeks later and ran a much-improved race. This Gun Runner colt is an early foal (February) and I like how he “learned something” in his last start. Instead of gunning to the lead as he did in his first 2 starts, he listened to his jockey, rated and then ran down his foes in a very professional manner. He will have to improve again to win. BOARD CONTENDER

Giant Mischief (Ortiz Jr./Cox) 5-2 – Brad Cox goes for the nation’s leading rider for one of the morning line favorites. He has 2 wins and a 2nd in three starts but none against graded company. His speed figures say he fits and this looks like a good starting point for him this year. Reading a bit between the lines, perhaps the 1 1/8 Risen Star was too far for him to start off. He has trained this winter at Fair Grounds where that event was held last week but ships in here. I’m also not sure what to make of the fact that Florent gets off this horse to ride Verifying. If he didn’t get Irad or another big name jock, then it would be a big red flag. WIN CONTENDER

Reincarnate (Velazquez/Yakteen) 7-2 – This former Baffert runner looks like he could be any kind. In his last, he looked dead to rights in deep stretch after getting hounded on the lead the entire way. However, he dug in and held off Newgate who came back to win a stake in his next start. I love how he has some battle scars. On the downside, he looks best on the lead and will have plenty of company today. I don’t think he needs the lead but that is his game. Johnny V. went out to California to get good horses and he may have found one here. They will have to pass him in the stretch to win. WIN CONTENDER

Confidence Game (Graham/Desormeaux) 15-1 – Another Fair Grounds shipper shows up in Hot Springs. Confidence Game exits the G3 Lacomte where he pressed the pace and got a bit late. He is also another how likes to be forward. I think he will find this pace a bit taxing. TOSS

Talladega (Prat/Brisset) 30-1 – A recent MSW winner here at Oaklawn will find the waters a bit deeper today. Looks like he has some quality, and you will get paid if you like him. I don’t. TOSS

Event Detail (Corrales/Lobo) 30-1 – Bossed Turfway MSW company in his 3rd start last month. I see the owners of a pricy City of Light colt ($600k) taking a shot at getting some return on their investment. I get it if I owned him. I don’t and don’t plan to for this 1 1/16th mile journey. TOSS

Bourbon Bash (Michel/Lukas) 20-1 – Has danced 8 times so far with only a maiden win to his credit. D. Wayne is clearly taking a shot here. Again, I get it but… TOSS

Frosted Departure (Arrieta/McPeek) 20-1 – Kenny sends out the most experienced runner of the group with 10 starts. Breaking from the outside post with more speed to his inside this Frosted colt will have to learn to rate, save ground and pass rivals late. He’s never done that going a route of ground in the past. He may be able to do some of those things but I can’t back him to do all of them. OUTSIDER

SUMMARY:

I find that when there are a handful of win contenders a race often comes down to trip. Given the expected off track, I like to look for horses that will stay clean and clear. That means out of the mud, kickback and traffic. It’s just less to overcome.

That said, Reincarnate is my man! Although Tim Yakteen is listed as the trainer, this is a Baffert runner – at least in my mind for today. That means he has been trained to run fast and hard for the entire race. At the 7-2 m/l I find that a juicy price and I think in this deep field he will be just about that.

Reincarnate can run them off their feet, just like Baffert’s Arabian Knight did in last month’s Southwest Stakes. I feel that horses like Powerful, Bourbon Bash, Frosted Departure, Talladega and Confidence Game will all chase and fade and could create some issues for the backers.

Horses like Verifying, Giant Mischief and Gun Pilot will have to work out a trip in the mud to make some noise. Gun Pilot offers the most value. That said, most of my play will be in the win pool as I feel that has the most amount of certainty.

THE BET: Based on $100

$85 win Reincarnate

$15 exacta Reincarnate – Gun Pilot

Good Luck!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2023 Rebel Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires)

1. VERIFYING (2-1) – Champagne (G1) runner-up had no luck from the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but his return to action in a Jan. 14 allowance over this strip was a tour de force; not only was it achieved by a wide margin and worthy of a 95 Brisnet Speed rating, but he was flattered by the subsequent allowance wins by returning rival Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River; son of Justify has the scope to become the barn’s leading Kentucky Derby (G1) contender with a repeat or better of that effort.

2. POWERFUL (20-1) – The first of three from Asmussen; has achieved all of his success sprinting to date, including a one-length victory in a modest renewal of the Ed Brown S. at Churchill; his only two-turn try, in a top-heavy renewal of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), was a bust from start to finish, but so poor it probably wasn’t indicative of his actual ability; still, he’s conceding recency to all of the major players and has a number of lengths to improve from a speed figure perspective.

3. RED ROUTE ONE (10-1) – Plenty of things to like from a class perspective; third in a key renewal of the Breeders’ Futurity last fall, he didn’t have much luck when fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and last time was easily second best in the Southwest (G3) behind the runaway Arabian Knight; the possibility of another off track perhaps not ideal for him as his record in such conditions is mixed, but clearly a horse not to be discounted regardless of the price; to win, he’ll need to take another significant step forward and create some of his own luck.

4. GUN PILOT (8-1) – No match for Verifying two back, but showed an ability to stalk-and-pounce in the allowance follow-up and turned in what was a visually impressive win; it wasn’t especially fast, though, and returning rival Bourbon Bash was a fairly exposed sort going in; nonetheless, this colt has done little wrong to this point and has room for further improvement now that he’s proven to be more versatile in his running style.

5. GIANT MISCHIEF (5-2) – Winner of his first two starts, including an impressive Keeneland allowance score, and stakes debut in the Springboard Mile at Remington a decent try despite a slow start and a middle move he eventually couldn’t sustain; some doubts remain whether he’ll be as effective around two turns as he is around one, given dam was a G2-winning sprinter, but this distance seems within his scope for the time being and he’s clearly fast enough to contend with these; recent worktab adds to his appeal.

6. REINCARNATE (7-2) – A surprise winner of the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, which was basically a Baffert stable scrimmage, and in the process he bested Newgate, who went on to capture the Robert B. Lewis (G3) but is now off the Kentucky Derby trail with an injury; the possibility of an off track probably helps him, given his pedigree and early foot, though not necessarily optimistic about his chances going slightly farther if he once again is pressured from the start; regardless, a likely underlay on the board.

7. CONFIDENCE GAME (15-1) – Defeated future Holy Bull (G3) winner Rocket Can and subsequent Withers (G3) scorer Hit Show in that Churchill allowance two back, and last time raced wide before tiring through the stretch of the Lecomte (G3), which was won by the nice colt Instant Coffee; runner-up there was Two Phil’s, who finished third in last week’s Risen Star (G2); if he can work out a better trip here, he could produce his best run yet; he certainly has to as his figs to date are relatively light.

8. TALLADEGA (30-1) – Despite three modest efforts to start his career, he wound up a lukewarm favorite last out and pulled out a gutsy half-length win after leading from the start; obviously wasn’t much substance to that field if he was the public choice, and this dive into deeper waters is a tall order by the looks of things; likely the longest shot on the board.

9. EVENT DETAIL (30-1) – Overcame a wide draw to break his maiden last out going a mile over Turfway’s Tapeta track, and is ambitiously spotted against winners for the first time; lone prior try over the dirt perhaps not a true bill as it was his debut, around one turn, and included multiple next-out winners; still, it’s a tough task, even more so if he falls far back early over a track that will potentially be wet.

10. BOURBON BASH (20-1) – Took a useful drop in class last time, though wound up running into Gun Pilot; while a much more encouraging effort than he’d shown in quite a while, it doesn’t necessarily stamp him as a possible upsetter, especially as some of the rivals he’s lost to in minor stakes of late will also be longshots in this spot.

11. FROSTED DEPARTURE (20-1) – Although his effort in the Southwest was easily his best to date around two turns, he still proved no match for the exciting Arabian Knight and was also two lengths adrift of runner-up Red Route One; with 10 starts already in the rear view mirror, he’s well exposed compared to others; another minor share likely the best case scenario.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2023 Kentucky Derby Prep Race – Rebel Stakes
Published by Craig

Overview: This week, the Kentucky Derby Trail moves to Hot Springs, Arkansas, and the Rebel Stakes. Recent allowance winner Gun Pilot is one of three for trainer Steve Asmussen, Reincarnate ships in from Santa Anita, and Brad Cox sends out the top two favorites with Giant Mischief and Verifying.

Rebel Analysis:

Verifying draws the rail and will have to send to establish position; with three-speed horses inside six posts, the pace could get a little hot on the front end. Verifying ran a fast speed figure off the layoff in his allowance win at one mile. He doesn’t need the lead to win this race, but he has the most upside of the top contenders.

Giant Mischief mixed signals on this son of Into Mischief. He dominated in his debut with a late rush to win a sprint race at the Shoe. He was very game in his second start while taking advantage of the rail trip. He broke slow and made a sustained run while running on the outside part of the track in the Springboard Mile. He is improving, and most likely, he comes off the pace and should get a good race flow and pace to run into, making for a solid late run. Giant Mischief is capable of winning this.

Reincarnate started his career on the turf and continues to train fast after winning the Sham Stakes. The morning line of 7/2 is fair but most likely gets bet below that number. He has the speed figures to win this and does his best running on the front end, and he may not bet his best trip to win this race.

Gun Pilot won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park after being defeated by Verifying two starts back. The race he lost to Verifying was his second and Verifying 4th-lifetime start, so he gave up some seasoning. He is improving

Red Route One is a deep closer who needs a large field and a solid pace to run his best race, he is on a losing streak, and there may be better class levels to get him the win.

Event Detail ships in from Turfway, and most recently, he won a maiden race with a fast-speed figure on the synthetic surface. He moves up in class and is a closer who should get a good trip coming from off the pace.

Betting: Verifying and Giant Mischief are the logical choices, and there is a strong chance one of those two will win this race. I’m leaning on Verifying because he has the most room to improve. Event Detail is the longshot who may be one to include in exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michelle Yu: Saudi Cup Full-Card Picks | Saturday, Feb. 25, 2023

February 24, 2023 | By 1/ST BET

Editor’s Note: 1/ST and Santa Anita racing analyst Michelle Yu has been onsite in Riyadh following this week’s preparations for Saturday’s $20 million Saudi Cup and full undercard of stakes races. She filed her full-card selections and main event notes exclusively for 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. You can watch her live on the international simulcast feed for updated information. Advance wagering begins Friday for the entire card on both 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Michelle Yu’s Saudi Cup Day Selections:

Race 1 | 7:45 am ET | $1M Jockey Club Local Handicap | 1-1/8 miles
1-2-5-8

Race 2 | 8:25 am ET | $2M Arabian Classic | 1-1/4 miles
8-11-6

Race 3 | 9:05 am ET | $1.5M Turf Cup | 1-5/16 miles (T)
6-9-3-11

Race 4 | 9:45 am ET | $1.5M Turf Sprint | 6-3/4 furlongs (T)
2-6-11-4

Race 5 | 10:25 am ET | $2.5M Turf Handicap | 1-7/8 miles (T)
11-2-1-12

Race 6 | 11:05 am ET | $1.5M Saudi Derby | 1 mile
12-9-8-3

Race 7 | 11:45 am ET | $1.5 Dirt Sprint | 6 furlongs
8-4-3-1-6

Race 8 | 12:35 pm ET | $20M Saudi Cup | 1-1/8 miles
7-2-6-4

#7 Panthalassa: If he takes to the dirt, I have to agree with his connections that a one-turn, left-hand course should be ideal watching him win in Dubai. He has speed, but an additional gear late.

#2 Country Grammer: Mr. Consistency rarely disappoints you with a bad effort. He’s coming into this race sharper than he did last year, but will need to find more late at this distance.

#6 Jun Light Bolt: Excellent closing kick for this colt who seems to be thriving with the surface change to dirt.

#4 Emblem Road: Clearly he loves this track and the allowance prep seemed relatively easy for him. Well drawn for his middle-of-the-track finishing style.

//

Wagering Notes:
--- No carryovers in multi-race bets; all pools paid out.
--- Pick 6 begins in Race 3
--- Daily Double offered Races 6-7
--- Pick 3 offered Races 6-7-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel: Separating Saudi Cup American Contenders

February 24, 2023

Trainer Bob Baffert currently is prohibited from participating in the 2023 Kentucky Derby but in Saudi Arabia his runners are welcomed with open arms, so with $20 million being offered in this year’s edition of the Saudi Cup, the two best older horses from Baffert’s barn – Country Grammer and Taiba - have been entered and most likely will receive the bulk of the play in the mile and one-eighth main track international classic that will be renewed Saturday, February 25.

Currently the world’s richest active thoroughbred with earnings in excess of $11.2 million, Country Grammer arrives in peak form and must be considered the likely choice and one to beat. Second in this same race last year before winning the Dubai World Cup the following month, the 6-year-old son of Tonalist has finished first or second in his last six races, most recently winning the San Antonio Stakes-G2 at Santa Anita Dec. 26 in a race that always was designed to serve as a proper prep for the race on Saturday. And proper, it was.

However, if Country Grammer falls short again – he was worn down late in last year’s Saudi Cup by Emblem Road, whom he must face again – it may be because Taiba, in his first start as a 4-year-old, has passed him by. Late to the party as a 3-year-old, Tabia won the Santa Anita Derby in just his second career start, arguably was too inexperienced when no factor in the Kentucky Derby, but then developed into a high class performer in the second half of 2022. The son of Gun Runner appears primed to step forward Saturday following his career-top victory in the seven furlong Malibu S-G1 at Santa Anta Dec. 26.

So which of the Baffert entrants should we prefer?

Here is what the handicapper must consider when comparing each horse head-to-head:

Country Grammer – the positive factors:

• Genuine and consistent: first or second in 10 of 14 career starts.
• Superb second over this track and distance in last year’s Saudi Cup before winning the Dubai World Cup.
• Displayed peak form when winning the recent San Antonio Stakes despite a very wide trip.
• Comfortable outside draw, allowing jockey Frankie Dettori to dictate his own trip.
• Never flashy in the morning but has maintained his edge and fitness in recent team drills.

Tabia – the positive factors:

• Returned to winning form with a dominating score in the 7F Malibu Stakes-G1 in a race restricted to 3-year-olds.
• Unbeaten in two starts sprinting, so the (one-turn) nine furlong trip may prove to be ideal.
• Can win on the lead (if nobody else goes) but can stalk and pounce just as well.
• May have been a tad best in team workout with Country Grammer last week.
• Lightly raced (just seven starts) so has room for more development than his stable mate.

Okay, so here’s the nitty gritty. In trying to distinguish between the two, Country Grammer’s resume simply appears stronger. While Taiba arguably has more room to improve, he isn’t where Country Grammer already has been. And there is an argument to be made that Taiba, at least against world class older and more seasoned competition at this stage of his career, may be most effective sprinting, or perhaps up to a mile.

Fact is, neither one has to win. Several of the other imports are, indeed, quite formidable. But if you’re committed to back one of the two Americans in the race, Country Grammer should be the horse to prefer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Meet the Contenders: $20M Saudi Cup | Saturday, Feb. 25

February 23, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

Let’s Meet the Contenders for Saturday’s $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race.

-- Xpressbet and 1/ST BET will offer full-card wagering from Saudi Arabia on Saturday, beginning at 7:45 am ET in the US. The main event is slated for Race 8 at 12:35 pm ET US.

PP 1 | #7 Panthalassa (Yutaka Yushida)
One of the expected pacemakers, Panthalassa is no stranger to the world stage. He won the 2022 Dubai Turf at Meydan on World Cup night, was runner-up in the Group 1 Tenno Show at home in Japan and was last seen in a disappointing effort in December’s prestigious Group 1 Hong Kong Cup. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi surprised the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar with longshot winners Marche Lorraine and Loves Only You on dirt and turf.

PP 2 | #10 Taiba (Mike Smith)
Last year’s winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Pennsylvania Derby and Malibu Stakes was America’s only 3-year-old to notch a trio of Grade 1 dirt victories in 2022. Third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he joins Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Country Grammer as the only US interests in this year’s Saudi Cup. The only American to win this race in 3 editions was Maximum Security in 2020. He's the international Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu/?cmpid=4437)s' favorite in this race at odds between 15/8 and 7/4.

PP 3 | #3 Crown Pride (Damian Lane)
The 2022 UAE Derby winner and 12th-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby returns to the world stage from his Japanese home base. He finished second in all 3 starts in Japan post-Derby a year ago and looks to snap a 4-race losing streak after starting his career 3-for-4.

PP 4 | #9 Scotland Yard (Victor Gutierrez)
Former Steve Asmussen trainee knocked on the door of the Kentucky maiden ranks last summer before being sold in July at auction – purchased by the connections of Emblem Road, the defending Saudi Cup champ. Both sons of Quality Road, this 4-year-old has rattled off 3 straight wins in the desert, compressed between Dec. 31 and Jan. 28. He was hard-ridden out in a 10-plus length local prep score for this.

PP 5 | #13 Sunset Flash (Aseel Alsarhani)
The co-eldest runner in the field at age 7, she’s one of 2 mares to tackle the boys and bids to become the race’s first female winner. At home in Saudi Arabia since arriving from the UK in late 2019, she’s been a model of consistency with 11 straight top-2 finishes coming into the Saudi Cup. She loses jockey Alexis Moreno to Emblem Road on Saturday.

PP 6 | #6 Jun Light Bolt (Ryan Moore)
The presence of renowned jockey Ryan Moore will make this Japanese raider popular at the tote, witnessed as the international Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu/?cmpid=4437)s' third betting choice in the race around 7-1. Six-year-old has blossomed late since moving to dirt, winning the biggest races of his career to close the 2022 season – the Group 3 Sirius Stakes and Group 1 Champions Stakes, where he defeated Crown Pride. The Saudi Cup will be his first trip outside Japan.

PP 7 | #8 Remorse (Tadhg O’Shea)
UAE-based gelding finished 6th in last year’s Dubai World Cup and will be making his first foray to Saudi Arabia. Finished a distant and one-paced third in the Maktoum Challenge Round 2 on February 3, just his second start since last year’s DWC program. He’s out of the Wesley Ward-trained Queen Mary dash winner Jealous Again and bred more on the sprint side despite being by super sire Dubawi.

PP 8 | #4 Emblem Road (Alexis Moreno)
Last year’s improbable 99-1 winner of the Saudi Cup returns to the scene in the 2023 spotlight. The Kentucky-bred son of Quality Road has won 8 of 11 lifetime starts, including a local tune-up in Riyadh on January 13. Top local jockey Alexis Moreno retains the mount off the prep score; a year ago he jumped off this horse to ride stablemate Making Miracles. The international Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu/?cmpid=4437)s have him a 14-1 to 16-1 type of choice to repeat.

PP 9 | #11 Vin De Garde (Mickael Barzalona)
The co-eldest runner in the field at age 7, this is a son of all-time Japanese great Deep Impact. The world traveler has placed in the past two editions of the Dubai Turf, was a visitor to Del Mar in 2021 when 12th of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile on grass and also competed in the ’21 Hong Kong Mile. He’s lost 8 straight dating back to 2020 and lacks the dirt credentials of the top Saudi Cup hopes.

PP 10 | #2 Country Grammer (Frankie Dettori)
Last year’s Saudi Cup runner-up looks to one-up his performance. If successful, he would become the first North American-based horse ever to top $20 million in lifetime earnings and supplant Arrogate as No. 1 on the all-time earnings list. Internationally renowned jockey Frankie Dettori has the mount, replacing Flavien Prat from ’22. Country Grammer joins Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Taiba as the only US interests in this year’s Saudi Cup. The only American to win this race in 3 editions was Maximum Security in 2020. International bookmakers have him tabbed second betting choice between 7/2 and 4/1.

PP 11 | #12 Lagertha Rhyme (Ricardo Ferreira)
She’s one of 2 mares to tackle the boys in this year’s Saudi Cup and will try to become the first female winner. The Irish-bred raced in Poland in 2020 and 2021 before relocating to Saudi Arabia. She had a 6-race winning streak snapped by Sunset Flash when second in her final tune-up for this, which is by far her toughest test to date.

PP 12 | #5 Geoglyph (Christophe Lemaire)
The 2022 Japanese 2000 Guineas winner will be tested for distance, having lost 3 straight since capturing that mile showcase in his homeland. He’s a son of Drefong, America’s champion sprinter of 2016. French jockey Christophe Lemaire, who has been dominant in recent years riding in Japan, will be aboard. Lemaire has won races like the Japan Cup, Melbourne Cup and is a Breeders’ Cup titlist.

PP 13 | #1 Cafe Pharoah (Joao Moreira)
The son of 2015 US Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has an all-or-nothing ledger that boasts 7 wins from 13 starts – but has finished fifth or worse in all 6 additional attempts. He makes his first start in a fifth campaign, having won races in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. All of his races have been in Japan and all of his signature scores have been at the 1-mile distance, a full furlong shorter than the Saudi Cup trip.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: $1.5M Saudi Derby | Saturday, Feb. 25

February 22, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The world's eyes will be on the $20 million Saudi Cup on Saturday from the Middle East, but the undercard provides several competitive wagering opportunities as well. One of those stands out in Race 6, the $1.5 million Saudi Derby, where the international pool figures to be heavy on the Japanese and American contingents.

Through the first 7 weeks of 2023, our Xpressbet Race of the Week betting strategies have netted $2,768 in returns for $700 invested -- including 4 winners returning $1242, $430, $520 and another $576 a week ago. Plying our trade in international races like this isn't the norm, but we'll see if a hot hand extends to the desert.

​Field Depth:
Graded stakes winners HAVNAMELTDOWN from California and CONTINUAR from Japan will garner the headlines and support on the international parimutuel tote. These kind of races always are difficult to judge on class, though ES UNICO's last company line in Dubai stacks up nicely as well.

Pace:
FROM DUSK and HAVNAMELTDOWN ought to insure a blistering pace over a mile. Several others of these sprint-bred types could push the issue and a finisher has a major chance in this set-up.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-Es Unico: Clear runner-up in the UAE 2000 Guineas trial over 7 furlongs on dirt at Meydan, this southern hemisphere 4-year-old transferred his form nicely from Uruguay. Finished up with sharp interest behind highly regarded Tiger Nation in Dubai, a race capable of winning this. Es Unico is by sire War Secretary, who owns a purely American pedigree by War Front out of outstanding turf/synthetic mare Upperline.

2-Loreley: No match for Es Unico in Meydan’s UAE 2000 Guineas trial a month ago, but post-race scope detected mucus that may have impacted performance. Clasico Argentina winner prior in front-running fashion may be part of the pace. Southern Hemisphere 4-year-old is by fleet US sire Kentuckian and out of a mare by Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus.

3-Almulhem: Late May 20 foal gives away development to Northern Hemisphere types and obviously those from Southern Hemisphere. Runaway maiden mile winner over this track on December 24, besting 18 runners by 3+ lengths. Has a sprint/mile US pedigree, pure Todd Pletcher, by More Than Ready and out of the mare Morrow Cove (by sprinter Yes It’s True).

4-Almurtajiz: No match runner-up to Saudi Derby rival Commissioner King in the Ministry of National Guard Cup over this track Dec. 16 going the same mile trip. Showed promise in November romp over 7 furlongs locally. Win-early pedigree by Good Magic out of American mare Vieja Luna; should handle distance.

5-Atta Alghali: Son of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie would appear turf-bred on top, but dam was solid dirt performer in Chicago. Third-place finisher over this track Jan. 27 in the Saudi Derby qualifier. He had to almost stop cold on the far turn and re-rallied nicely before losing steam late. Could be a late factor with a cleaner trip.

6-Baalb: Deeper foundation than most of the local Saudi sophomores, running 6 times back to early September and winning 2 of 3 over the track in Riyadh. Maternal grandson of star US sprinter Classy Mirage is by Irish sprint/mile sharpie Beldardo. Comes off a disappointing race, but intrigues some.

7-Commissioner King: Kentucky-bred son of Pimlico Special winner and Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner, he exits a 4-length win Dec. 16 in the local Ministry of National Guard Cup. Dam was a solid stakes sprinter in Maryland. Winner of 2 of 3 lifetime ranks among the top local hopes.

8-Continuar: Cattleya Stakes winner in Japan’s Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers in November, he’s a son of top US sprinter Drefong. Note last year’s Saudi Derby runner-up also was a son of Drefong via Japan. Connections seek path from Saudi Arabia to Dubai to Louisville if all goes to plan. Twice has run 1-1/8 miles, so distance will not be an issue at a mile for this colt from the female family of legendary Japanese mare Almond Eye. Was a bit one-paced last out in the Cattleya victory.

9-Derma Sotogake: Hard-fought dirt winner in Japan’s Zen Nippon Nisai Yushun last time out, he’ll be one of that nation’s multiple major reps in the Saudi Derby. Japan has won this race 2 of its 3 years in existence and finished 2-3 in last year’s event. Derma Sotogake defeated Saudi Derby rival Continuar in a matchup last year, and this is a son of Mind Your Biscuits, the US-based sprinter who had much success in Dubai. He carries the Sunday Silence bloodlines on the damside for class and stamina.

10-Ecoro Ares: Outsider among the Japanese contingent, ninth beaten 14 lengths most recently in a turf sprint. Son of US sprinter Unified, who did stretch out to win the 9F Peter Pan around 1 turn. Dam won 3 routes in US on dirt and turf.

11-From Dusk: $900,000 Ocala 2-Year-Old purchase by hot young sire Bolt d’Oro (and out of a half-sister to $1.6M turfer Get Stormy) has been wildly inconsistent in Japan to date. He’s performed better shorter in distance and has exceptional early foot – owing to his 9-4/5 drill at OBS. From Dusk should be part of the pace.

12-Havnameltdown: Trainer Bob Baffert won this race last year wire-to-wire with Pinehurst, who ran in many of the same races as this colt – specifically, the Del Mar Futurity at 2 and San Vicente at 3. His only career loss in 5 starts came when barnmate Cave Rock wired the Del Mar Futurity. Havnameltdown was gifted the lead in the San Vicente and cruised up top; that scenario will be more difficult to attain in the Saudi Derby. Not only did his American barnmate win this race last year, but also note Cowan represented the US well in 2021 when runner-up.

13-My Map: Saudi Arabia’s leading contender is perfect in 4 starts and notched the local prep victory in the Saudi Derby qualifier. By Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map, he sat patiently inside last out, split horses professionally and had a nice turn of foot to open up before idling a bit to the wire. With a hot pace expected, he’s a danger late as the locals look for their first win in this race.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ES UNICO really caught my eye in Dubai and the race shape looks favorable for his style. The Southern Hemisphere 4YOs always perk my attention in these spring international races with their developmental edge.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
ATTA ALGHALI can improve off a troubled trip and gets a good set-up.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win ES UNICO. $5 exacta key-box ES UNICO with MY MAP, HAVNAMELTDOWN, ATTA ALGHALI ($30).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Kentucky Derby Top 10 Newcomers, Plus Rebel Picks

February 22, 2023 | By Jon White

While Arabian Knight and Forte remain No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week has two newcomers.

Sparkling recent maiden winner Skinner enters the Top 10 this week at No. 8. Risen Star Stakes winner Angel of Empire debuts at No. 10.

Skinner was credited with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure for his maiden graduation in a mile contest. Angel of Empire received a preliminary Beyer of 87 for his triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star, a figure that subsequently was boosted a bit to 89.

One of the reasons that I have Skinner ranked a couple of notches above Angel of Empire on the Top 10 is Skinner’s higher 95 Beyer in a two-turn race vis-a-vis Angel of Empire’s 89 in a two-turn contest.

Not only was Skinner’s performance commendable quantitatively with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, I came away impressed visually in terms of the gusto Skinner exhibited in the lane to win going away by a widening 3 1/4 lengths.

I’ve had my eye on Skinner ever since he kicked off his racing career at Del Mar last summer on July 24 in a five-furlong maiden special weight race. Last early in the field of 10, he finished fifth. Havnameltdown, backed down to 6-5 favoritism for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, won in front-running fashion by 2 1/4 lengths.

Keep in mind that was only a five-furlong sprint. Also keep in mind that Skinner was facing a quality sprinter in Havnameltdown.

Since that July 24 maiden race at Del Mar, Havnameltdown has won three of four starts, all in graded stakes races sprinting. His only defeat came when he finished second to Cave Rock in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs.

Skinner never threatened in his debut, but he did come home with good energy as a 36-1 longshot. After being 13 lengths behind on the backstretch, he found himself seven lengths behind Havnameltdown at the finish.

But the main reason Skinner made my horses-to-watch list is what he did AFTER the race was over. I noted that he “galloped out past the winner after the finish.”

Because that race happened so long ago, I watched the video of it again just to make sure that I wasn’t smoking my socks as to what Skinner did after the finish. Sure enough, he ran right by Havnameltdown on the clubhouse turn while no one else was close to the pair.

Owned by Lee and Susan Searing’s C R K Stable and trained by John Shirreffs, Skinner followed his debut by running in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs as a maiden. For the Searings and Shirreffs to think enough of the Kentucky-bred Curlin colt to run him in that race when he was a maiden says a lot. These are not pie-in-the-sky people.

Skinner managed to finish third at 13-1 to Cave Rock and Havnameltdown in the Del Mar Futurity. After that, Skinner again competed at the Grade I level as a maiden. But this time he finished far back in sixth in Santa Anita’s American Pharoah Stakes on Oct. 8. Skinner would not race again until his 2023 debut on Feb. 12.

Between Skinner’s Oct. 8 and Feb. 12 races, he appears to have come a long way under Shirreffs’ skillful horsemanship.

“We spent a lot of time taking him to the gate, standing him, doing a lot of little things just to build his confidence,” Shirreffs told Daily Racing Form’s Brad Free.

The time and effort paid off on Feb. 12.

“Skinner broke well, relaxed in sixth position, took dirt, rallied outside and powered home,” Free wrote.

Shirreffs said that Skinner “did everything right” that day.

Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 4 is under consideration for Skinner.

“It could be next for him, but it comes up pretty quick,” Shirreffs was quoted as saying in Santa Anita’s stable notes Monday (Feb. 20). “We’ll see.”

In 2020, Shirreffs sent out C R K Stable’s Honor A.P. to finish second behind Authentic in the San Felipe. Honor A.P. then won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby by 2 3/4 lengths, with Authentic having to settle for second. Authentic went on to win the Grade I Haskell Invitational, Grade I Kentucky Derby and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic en route to being voted 2020 Horse of the Year. Honor A.P. finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

The Shirreffs-trained Giacomo ran second to Consolidator in the 2005 San Felipe. After that, Giacomo finished fourth to Buzzards Bay, General John and Wilco in the Santa Anita Derby. Giacomo then won the Kentucky Derby in a 50-1 upset for owners Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss.

Another reason I have Skinner at No. 8 on this week’s Top 10 is I will not be surprised that, when all is said and done, he turns out to be at least as good as Giacomo.

Shirreffs does have one San Felipe victory to his credit. He won it with Stan Fulton’s A.P. Warrior in 2006. A.P. Warrior would go on to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby and 18th in the Kentucky Derby.

Geaux Rocket Ride is No. 6 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. It’s all systems go at this time for him to run in the San Felipe, according to Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. The Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight race by 5 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita when unveiled on Jan. 29.

It should be noted that Geaux Rocket Ride’s debut victory looks even better now after runner-up Sonoran came back to win a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race by 7 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Monday (Feb. 20) for Baffert.

Meanwhile, Brad Cox trains Angel of Empire and about a hundred other talented 3-year-old colts, or so it seems.

Even though Angel of Empire’s 89 Beyer in his Risen Star win won’t knock your socks off, I gave him the nod over Verifying and Practical Move for the No. 10 spot on my Top 10 this week for a couple of reasons.

First, by virtue of Angel of Empire earning 50 qualifying points in the Risen Star, he’s virtually assured of a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 6. And if you’re in it, you have a chance to win it, as evidenced by Rich Strike’s shocking 80-1 victory last year.

Second, since it seems like the longer a race is the better it is for Angel of Empire, it’s not hard for me to picture him hitting the board in the 1 1/4-mile Run for the Roses. Hence, I believe he deserves to be included on the Top 10.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Arabian Knight
2. Forte
3. Tapit Trice
4. Cave Rock
5. Instant Coffee
6. Geaux Rocket Ride
7. Hejazi
8. Skinner
9. Reincarnate
10. Angel of Empire

Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):

Blazing Sevens, Carmel Road, Damon’s Mound, Denington, Disarm, Eyeing Clover, Faustin, General Jim, Gun Pilot, Hard to Figure, Hit Show, Kingsbarns, Litigate, National Treasure, Please Be Nice, Practical Move, Recruiter, Red Route One, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder, Tall Boy, Two Eagles River, Two Phil’s, Worcester and Verifying.

REBEL STAKES SELECTIONS

Eleven are entered in the lucrative 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes, which will be contested at Oaklawn Park this Saturday (Feb. 25). The Grade II affair has a purse of $1 million up for grabs.

The two I like the most are Reincarnate and Verifying. Horses they recently have defeated (Mr. Fitz, Newgate, Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River) were next-out winners.

Tim Yakteen, instead of Baffert, is now listed as the trainer of Reincarnate. This makes the Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt eligible to earn Kentucky Derby points.

Horses trained by Baffert currently are ineligible to earn any qualifying points toward the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Baffert has been banned from participation in races at Churchill Downs Inc. tracks, including the Kentucky Derby, through early July. The ban stems from the 2021 Kentucky Derby in which the Baffert-trained Medina Spirit finished first but tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use, but not on race day.

A gem of consistency, Reincarnate has finished first or second in all five career starts.

Reincarnate goes into the Rebel off back-to-back victories. He won a one-mile maiden special weight race at Del Mar on Nov. 25, then took Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes at the same distance on Jan. 8.

Mr Fisk finished second to Reincarnate in the Nov. 25 race, then won his next start.

Newgate ran second to Reincarnate in the Sham, then was victorious in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

I expect Reincarnate to show early speed in the Rebel for Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. It’s the same running style the colt displayed in both of his wins.

Reincarnate’s name is “based on pedigree, looks and a famous gray that captured the imagination of one Gavin Murphy,” the DRF’s Brad Free wrote this week. “Murphy manages SF Racing, co-owner of Reincarnate. Murphy became a fan of Holy Bull in 1994, when he won four Grade I’s. The second dame of Reincarnate is by Holy Bull.”

Holy Bull was the 1994 Horse of the Year as a 3-year-old.

Reincarnate “looks just like Holy Bull,” Ryan said.

The name Reincarnate was Murphy’s idea, as in “Holy Bull reincarnated,” Free wrote.

A $775,000 auction purchase, Reincarnate is a Kentucky-bred son of Good Magic. Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a maiden and was voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male.

Coincidentally, Verifying likewise was a $775,000 auction purchase.

In Verifying’s first 2023 start, he bounded home to a 5 1/4-length victory going one mile in a first-level allowance/optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 14. Gun Pilot finished second, while Two Eagles River came in third. Gun Pilot won his next start, as did Two Eagles River. Gun Pilot will be one of Verifying’s opponents in the Rebel.

Breaking from the rail with Florent Geroux in the saddle, Verifying should be forwardly placed early and get a good trip in the Rebel. Cox trains Verifying, a son of undefeated 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Verifying is a half-brother to Midnight Bisou, an earner of $7,471,520 and an Eclipse Award recipient as champion older dirt female of 2019.

Cox also will be represented in the Rebel by Giant Mischief, who certainly warrants contender status.

Giant Mischief won his first two races, one at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the other at Keeneland. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt then ran second despite a poor start as a 4-5 favorite in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile on Dec. 17.

It certainly helps Giant Mischief’s chances in the Rebel that multiple Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. pilots him for the first time. Ortiz has been red-hot. He won four races last Saturday (Feb. 18) at Gulfstream Park, then three more there the next day.

Another Rebel entrant worthy of serious consideration is Red Route One. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt rallied to finish second, 5 1/2 lengths behind Arabian Knight (No. 1 on my Top 10), in Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on a sloppy track Jan. 28.

My selections for the Rebel Stakes are below:

1. Reincarnate
2. Verifying
3. Giant Mischief
4. Red Route One

ASMUSSEN REGISTERS WIN NO. 10,000

Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen won only 63 races as a jockey. He’s done a whole lot better as a trainer.

Asmussen, who ranks as North America’s all-time leader in wins by a trainer, made more history on Monday (Feb. 20). The 57-year-old native of South Dakota became the first North American trainer to win 10,000 Thoroughbred races when Bet He’s Ready posted a 3 3/4-length victory as an even-money favorite in the fifth race at Oaklawn.

On Aug. 7, 2021, when Stellar Tap got the job done in a maiden special weight race at Saratoga, Asmussen notched his 9,446th victory to take over the top spot in most wins by a North American trainer from the late Dale Baird.

Asmussen won his first race as a Thoroughbred conditioner with Victory’s Halo at Ruidoso Downs on July 19, 1986.

A two-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer in 2008 and 2009, Asmussen has conditioned such champions as Curlin (Horse of the Year in 2007 and 2008), Rachel Alexandra (Horse of the Year in 2009) and Gun Runner (Horse of the Year in 2017).

Below is a list of the Top 10 all-time leading Thoroughbred trainers in wins through Feb. 21, according to Equibase:

Rank Wins Trainer

1. 10,000 Steve Asmussen*
2. 9,445 Dale Baird
3. 7,759 Jerry Hollendorfer*
4. 6,523 Jack Van Berg
5. 6,508 King Leatherbury
6. 6,306 Scott Lake
7. 5,502 Todd Pletcher*
8. 5,286 Bill Mott*
9. 4,892 D. Wayne Lukas*
10. 4,745 Scott Hazelton

*active

LINDA MEENTS PASSES AWAY

I join many who were saddened to learn the news that Linda Meents passed away on Feb. 14 at her home in Arizona following a lengthy illness at the age of 75. She was the press box racing wire operator for all of the tracks in the Los Angeles area at one time or another for many years before her retirement.

“She was a really, really good person,” Mike Willman, Santa Anita’s publicity director, said Sunday (Feb. 19) on his radio program Thoroughbred Los Angeles.

Willman noted that after he took over as publicity director at the Great Race Place, “Linda was kinda my rudder.”

In the many years I worked in television at Santa Anita and on HRTV with Kurt Hoover, she often joined us and others in playing a group pick six.

“She was a good winner and a good loser” as a participant in those pick six tickets, said handicapper Bob Mieszerski, whose selections, odds and comments appear in various Southern California newspapers, such as the Los Angeles Daily News, Pasadena Star-News and San Gabriel Valley Tribune. “She never complained. Everybody liked her.”

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 303 Art Collector (19)
2. 258 Taiba (9)
3. 180 Country Grammer (3)
4. 163 Defunded
5. 130 Cody’s Wish
6. 121 Atone
7. 115 Nest
8. 80 Elite Power
9. 64 Clairiere
10. 35 Goodnight Olive
10. 35 Gunite
10. 35 Queen Goddess

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 307 Forte (18)
2. 293 Arabian Knight (13)
3. 229 Instant Coffee
3. 163 Cave Rock
5. 111 Angel of Empire
6. 109 Rocket Can
7. 100 Hit Show
7. 77 Reincarnate
9. 68 Blazing Sevens
10. 61 Litigate

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saudi Cup Post Position Draw Reaction

February 22, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

American-based hopefuls Taiba and Country Grammer drew posts 2 and 10 for Saturday’s $20 million Saudi Cup in Riyadh. The pair of Bob Baffert trainees are part of the field of 13, which includes defending champion Emblem Road, who will try to become the event’s first two-time winner after last year’s 99-1 shocking upset.

Second in this race in 2022, Country Grammer has the experience factor with the journey and track, whereas the 4-year-old Taiba – winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Pennsylvania Derby and Malibu a year ago – is generally considered the more brilliant racehorse of the stablemates. Both employ similar tactics from mid-flight and should be finishing well at the end of 1-1/8 miles.

Front-running Panthalassa drew the rail and his connections said the instructions will be to ‘go.’ The pace contribution also could come from Scotland Yard in post 4. Japan has 6 contenders in the Saudi Cup, including 2022 Kentucky Derby alum Crown Pride, winner of last year’s UAE Derby, and Cafe Pharoah, a son of US Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

First post Saturday will be an early 7:45 am ET start in the US. The undercard includes the $1.5 million Saudi Derby, featuring San Vicente Stakes winner Havnameltdown, as well as the $1.5 million Dirt Sprint, boasting Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Elite Power and fellow American Gunite.

//

Riyadh // Race 8 // 12:35 pm ET // $20 million Group 1 Saudi Cup // 1-1/8 miles

PP1 | #7 Panthalassa (Yutaka Yushida)
PP 2 | #10 Taiba (Mike Smith)
PP 3 | #3 Crown Pride (Damian Lane)
PP 4 | #9 Scotland Yard (Victor Gutierrez)
PP 5 | #13 Sunset Flash (Aseel Alsarhani)
PP 6 | #6 Jun Light Bolt (Ryan Moore)
PP 7 | #8 Remorse (Tadhg O’Shea)
PP 8 | #4 Emblem Road (Alexis Moreno)
PP 9 | #11 Vin De Garde (Mickael Barzalona)
PP 10 | #2 Country Grammer (Frankie Dettori)
PP 11 | #12 Lagertha Rhyme (Ricardo Ferreira)
PP 12 | #5 Geoglyph (Christophe Lemaire)
PP 13 | #1 Cafe Pharoah (Joao Moreira)

//

Full Schedule:

Race 1 | 7:45 am ET | $1M Jockey Club Local Handicap | 1-1/8 miles

Race 2 | 8:25 am ET | $2M Arabian Classic | 1-1/4 miles

Race 3 | 9:05 am ET | $1.5M Turf Cup | 1-5/16 miles (T)

Race 4 | 9:45 am ET | $1.5M Turf Sprint | 6-3/4 furlongs (T)

Race 5 | 10:25 am ET | $2.5M Turf Handicap | 1-7/8 miles (T)

Race 6 | 11:05 am ET | $1.5M Saudi Derby | 1 mile

Race 7 | 11:45 am ET | $1.5 Dirt Sprint | 6 furlongs

Race 8 | 12:35 pm ET | $20M Saudi Cup | 1-1/8 miles

//

Wagering Notes:

--- No carryovers in multi-race bets; all pools paid out.

--- Pick 6 begins in Race 3

--- Daily Double offered Races 6-7

--- Pick 3 offered Races 6-7-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Aqueduct Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Who Me 2-1 M G Thompson J A Gomez
2 #4 My Man Matty 1-2 B N Levine M Franco
3 #5 Neural Network 5-2 C C Brown M Franco
4 #6 Lastchanceatglory 2-1 D L Schettino D Davis
5 #7 Grannys Connection 7-5 T Morley E Cancel
6 #4 Dust Devil 3-1 O Noda E Cancel
7 #5 Kant Hurry Love 2-1 D P Duggan M Franco
8 #6 Miles D 3-1 C C Brown M Franco
9 #6 Bold Honor 6-1 R Atras J Lezcano

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Charles Town Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Infinite Empire 1-5 J C Runco A Bocachica
2 #5 Castle Lights 8-5 K J Joy J D Acosta
3 #6 Moonlit Shadow 5-2 T C Grams C Hiraldo
4 #7 Reckless Affair 2-1 D R Dilodovico A Cruz
5 #5 Leg Up 8-5 R W Brown D Araujo
6 #8 Irish Valentine 5-2 C G Pickett J D Acosta
7 #8 Lucylou Who 1-1 E J Geralis C E Lopez
8 #3 Shiny Penny 5-1 C G Pickett D Araujo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Delta Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Impressed 5-2 K Broberg J P Vargas
2 #5 My Man Louie 7-2 R Degeyter, Jr. E J Barrera
3 #7 Manly Deeds 3-1 B Chatters A Birzer
4 #2 Cpriority 9-2 L Thomas P L Cotto, Jr.
5 #3 Mr. Wimbledon Bay 5-2 E Ramirez J Dominguez
6 #2 Moment 2-1 E Lopez E J Barrera
7 #4 Jack Bob and Larry 10-1 H B Johnson, Jr. T L Pompell
8 #9 Pipes and Drums 9-2 V Arceneaux C Fusilier
9 #5 Awesome Cajun 5-2 A Landry J Stokes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Fair Grounds Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #8 Daphne's Fire 7-2 W B Calhoun R Gutierrez
2 #5 Permafrost 2-1 S M Asmussen B J Hernandez, Jr.
3 #2 Oddsontony 9-2 K G McPeek B J Hernandez, Jr.
4 #4 Invulnerable 9-2 J Sharp B J Hernandez, Jr.
5 #5 Free Drop Maddy 3-1 W B Calhoun R Gutierrez
6 #4 He's Got Swagger 9-5 K G McPeek B J Hernandez, Jr.
7 #7 Jack Hammer 7-5 W B Calhoun R Gutierrez
8 #9 Titled Lady 4-1 W B Calhoun R Gutierrez
9 #6 Brigadier General 5-1 D Stewart R Gutierrez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Fonner Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Presley's Artwork 9-5 M Lemburg J A Medina
2 #1 Always a Tiz 5-2 A Ibanez A B Ramos
3 #2 Rabbit Twenty Two 6-1 G P Rivera D Cardoso
4 #2 Drink 2-1 K Martinez A Martinez
5 #1 Hot Caviar 2-1 M Lemburg A Martinez
6 #4 Queen of Gold 3-1 D C Anderson K Roman
7 #4 Saber Queen 2-1 I V Gonzalez K Roman
8 #8 Paralissfrmanalyss 4-1 K Martinez A Martinez
9 #2 Gurl You Fine 5-2 M Black J A Medina
10 #5 North Side 6-1 S Condon J A Medina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Golden Gate Fields Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Luck Is Golden 3-2 J Wong E Gonzalez
2 #5 El Bromista 6-5 B D Wright A Ayuso
3 #4 Quiet Charm 8-5 S S Perez A Espinoza
4 #6 Jim's Jet 6-1 I Tamayo W Antongeorgi III
5 #7 My Moondancer 9-5 A Mathis A Espinoza
6 #4 Stoic Luna 3-1 E Moger, Jr. A Chavez
7 #5 My Legal Bet 9-5 J R Thomas B Pena
8 #7 Signorina Merisi 2-1 M Badilla A Espinoza
9 #4 Rio King 3-1 S Calvario S Rivera

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Gulfstream Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Good Soldier 3-1 G Delgado J Castellano
2 #8 Wildcat Star 3-1 J Garoffalo J L Ortiz
3 #2 Slim Slow Slider 7-5 P R Walder M A Vasquez
4 #1 Silky Warrior 4-1 J A Hiles J Castellano
5 #6 Spectacular Gal 5-2 S A Joseph, Jr. J L Ortiz
6 #8 Vigil Anna 3-1 S D Acker P Lopez
7 #5 Concrete Glory 7-5 S A Joseph, Jr. J L Ortiz
8 #9 Chasing the Crown 5-2 M J Maker P Lopez
9 #6 Lightening Larry 9-2 J Delgado J E Morelos
10 #6 Sweet Serenade 8-1 R L Attfield E Wilson
11 #2 Principe d'Oro 6-1 T A Pletcher J Castellano
12 #8 Carl Spackler 6-5 C C Brown J L Ortiz

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Laurel Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #6 Shinelikeadiamond 5-2 P Capuano A Concepcion
2 #1 Thruster 7-2 D H Barr W Humphrey
3 #4 Joey the Fish 3-1 G Weaver A Cruz
4 #6 Street Hustle 5-2 H I McMahon A Concepcion
5 #9 Sultry Sally H 6-1 K M Cox C Marquez
6 #7 Curlington 2-1 H I McMahon W Humphrey
7 #4 Your Analysis 9-5 B T Russell J Toledo
8 #9 Al Loves Josie 3-1 J J Robb X Perez
9 #5 Thtwasthenthisisnw 2-1 M E Gorham J Rodriguez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Louisiana Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #6 Tf Jess Dashin 7-2 P L Clemons A Alvarez
2 #4 Itsacoronayear 5-2 M Trejo F Maldonado
3 #2 Corona Blues 8-1 D Hoda A Gutierrez
4 #5 Sumpns Up 2-1 W J Simien, Jr. R Ramirez, Jr.
5 #5 Fastdash These Silks 5-2 A P Clark U Luna
6 #7 Five Bar Jess Cartel 2-1 J Huitron A Gutierrez
7 #4 Jrs Majestics First 2-1 D Keith L Rodriguez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Oaklawn Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Indian Irish 5-2 R L Morse M Garcia
2 #8 Saqeel 2-1 R Diodoro C A Torres
3 #2 Perfect Flight 8-1 P Miller I Ortiz, Jr.
4 #1 Tahoe Run 3-1 M Robertson C A Torres
5 #4 Uncle Buddy 8-1 D Jacobson I Castillo
6 #9 Malibu Toast 5-2 B H Cox I Ortiz, Jr.
7 #7 Pretty Birdie 5-2 N W Casse D Cabrera
8 #8 Albizu 3-1 R Diodoro C A Torres
9 #4 Osbourne 8-5 R Moquett R Bejarano
10 #7 Wet Paint 7-2 B H Cox F Prat
11 #5 Giant Mischief 5-2 B H Cox I Ortiz, Jr.
12 #7 Midnight Taxes 3-1 C A Hartman N Juarez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sam Houston Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #6 Texas Ascot Queen 9-5 J R Caldwell L J Luzzi
2 #5 Viewing Trail 8-1 K Broberg S Elliott
3 #4 Canatlan 3-1 J Torrez A Rodriguez
4 #1 Concept 9-5 S M Asmussen S Elliott
5 #2 Sports Fan 9-5 S M Asmussen S Elliott
6 #7 Mission Belle 6-5 K Broberg R Diaz
7 #7 Piel Morena 20-1 D Chacaltana R Guerra
8 #10 Fearless Prince 9-5 A Gustafson C Oliveros
9 #2 Moro Nala 5-2 A Gustafson R Diaz

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #10 One Big Check 7-2 G Munoz, Jr. E Tapia
2 #3 Truffle 3-1 J M Soto B Candanosa
3 #7 Mattie Jane 9-2 J L Honesto J Enriquez
4 #7 Uncle Shine 8-1 A Alamos J Enriquez
5 #2 Frank Bama 6-1 J L Sanchez, Jr. J P Leos
6 #3 War Revenant 7-2 M A Flores E Tapia
7 #5 Legacy Cartel 9-2 M R Rodriguez E Ramirez
8 #3 Delight Interest 3-1 J Ponce M Gutierrez
9 #9 A Snowy Dynasty 6-1 S R Soto E Tapia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Tampa Bay Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Zip Code Envy 2-1 T E Hamm P Morales
2 #8 Thats All Shewrote 2-1 G S Bennett S Marin
3 #7 Hot and Heavy 7-2 T Wilson C E Rojas
4 #5 Savage 6-1 M Bowersock R D Allen, Jr.
5 #7 Faccia Bella 6-1 K Raven A A Gallardo
6 #3 Beauty Quist 7-2 G D Sacco A Suarez
7 #3 Lenten Rose 9-2 R G Potts P Morales
8 #3 Girl Pro 8-5 J Delgado C E Rojas
9 #8 Sandy Lane Kitten 7-2 J Cruz S Marin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Turf Paradise Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Warren's Memorable 5-2 R G Valerio H Hernandez
2 #3 Smiling Thunder 7-5 J R Evans L Negron
3 #7 Cannonball Comin 3-1 J Silva, Jr. A Arboleda
4 #6 Outside the Law 5-2 S Campo H Hernandez
5 #4 Xtreme Mayhem 7-2 E Martinez J L Zunino
6 #4 Ramblin' Man 9-5 R K Owens D P Vergara
7 #4 Mr. Who 5-2 M Chambers H Hernandez
8 #5 I'll Take the Soup 10-1 E J Kereluk L Mawing

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Turfway Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #10 Lady Pele 7-2 J Blair T Heard
2 #1 Birthday Time 5-2 W E Morey C Landeros
3 #6 Sweets Maker 3-1 B Colebrook J Gilligan
4 #6 Laytown 3-1 J M Cano A Lezcano
5 #9 Burgoo Alley 12-1 M J Maker C Landeros
6 #6 Justa Simple Girl 5-2 J F D'Angelo F De La Cruz
7 #4 Willtorun 6-1 B Colebrook L Machado
8 #10 Carmel Bay 7-2 J L Grubbs F De La Cruz

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Turfway Park Tip Sheet - February 25

Feb. 24, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track
RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:55 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 GIRLS HOUSE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 7 Girls House E Esquivel
PLACE 7-2 10 Lady Pele T Heard
SHOW 7-2 5 Lotta Roses S Gonzalez
WILD CARD 9-2 9 Toffee C Landeros

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 2 Lady Xi W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Lost Bikini J McKee

* EXACTA: 7-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 5/9/10 BOX


RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:25 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 DOOIT

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 4 Dooit P W Ouzts
PLACE 6-1 7 Shrimpie F De La Cruz
SHOW 6-1 10 Puglia J Elliott
WILD CARD 5-2 1 Birthday Time C Landeros

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Quick Conversation W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 9 Starship Belmont E Esquivel

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/10 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX


RACE #3 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:55 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 QUIERO MAS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 5 Quiero Mas J D Ramos
PLACE 4-1 1 Little Sister Sue J McKee
SHOW 3-1 6 Sweets Maker J Gilligan
WILD CARD 5-1 2 Blessing the Flag J Talamo

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 3 Chameleon C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 7 Such Sounds D Cannon

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX


RACE #4 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 4 My Favorite Uncle D Cannon
PLACE 3-1 6 Laytown A Lezcano
SHOW 5-1 7 Off the Charts F De La Cruz
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Biggie I Ayala

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 5 Whiskey Roan J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Agile Dancer M Franklin

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX


RACE #5 $125,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 3 Opening Buzz W A Rodriguez
PLACE 5-1 5 Purrfect F De La Cruz
SHOW 6-1 7 Kates Kingdom J Gilligan
WILD CARD 6-1 8 Bella Conchita R M Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Candy Raid J Riquelme
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 11 Guana Cay E Esquivel

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX


RACE #6 $23,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 Justa Simple Girl F De La Cruz
PLACE 10-1 4 Super Lucy L Machado
SHOW 9-2 12 My Dark Secret S Gonzalez
WILD CARD 6-1 11 Miss Getty Up R M Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 1 Tiz Susan Ann M Franklin
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 13 Foot Rub Love D Cannon

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX, 12-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/12 BOX, 4/11/12 BOX


RACE #7 $78,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 12 Bring Me a Check W A Rodriguez
PLACE 9-2 8 Doctor Davis J Gilligan
SHOW 8-1 2 Tightrope R M Hernandez
WILD CARD 9-2 10 Race Driver E Esquivel

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Willtorun L Machado
ALTERNATE 2 7-2 1 Hurricane J J Talamo

* EXACTA: 12-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/12 BOX, 2/8/10 BOX


RACE #8 $7,500 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 12 T J Munnings T Heard
PLACE 5-1 5 Seven and Seven J Padron-Barcenas
SHOW 7-2 10 Carmel Bay F De La Cruz
WILD CARD 5-1 3 Panorama Truck S Gonzalez

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 13 Jimmy Dan E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Leave It to Kitten J E Felix

* EXACTA: 12-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/10/12 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - February 25

Feb. 24, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $15,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 2 Sense of Heart T S Albert
PLACE 5-1 5 Unbridled Annsley J Loveberry
SHOW 5-1 6 Keep Left A Green
WILD CARD 7-2 8 Daphnes Fire R Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 Puabis Gold D Cohen
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 4 De Ans Eighty E Nieves

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX


RACE #2 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 1 Briartown R Gutierrez
PLACE 2-1 5 Permafrost B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW 3-1 6 Green Beans B Culp
WILD CARD 9-2 4 De Saix J L Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Mo Moves E Morales
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Alilnalot J Loveberry

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX


RACE #3 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 6 More Than Five A Beschizza
PLACE 6-1 10 Dual Monarchy J Loveberry
SHOW 3-1 1 Kid Ketchum M Pedroza Jr.
WILD CARD 4-1 4 Deccan Prince E Morales

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 8 Sir M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 2 Oddsontony B J Hernandez Jr.

* EXACTA: 6-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/10 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX


RACE #4 $51,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 NATURAL HARBOR

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 Natural Harbor E Morales
PLACE 2-1 5 Distorted Pro M Pedroza Jr.
SHOW 4-1 2 Toddchero J Loveberry
WILD CARD 9-2 4 Invulnerable B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 Gilcrease C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 F Js Flaco C J Hernandez

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX


RACE #5 $75,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 5 Free Drop Maddy R Gutierrez
PLACE 7-2 3 Guitar Woman E Nieves
SHOW 7-2 7 Olivia G D L Parker
WILD CARD 9-2 2 New Destiny C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 8 For Harper J L Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 She Told You So A Castillo

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX


RACE #6 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 HES GOT SWAGGER

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 4 Hes Got Swagger B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 2-1 1 Desert Duke M Murrill
SHOW 8-1 2 Ice Time R Gutierrez
WILD CARD 6-1 7 Two Rivers Over D L Parker

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Minnesota Moon J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 8 Scat Danz C J Hernandez

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX


RACE #7 $75,000 STAKES
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-5 7 Jack Hammer R Gutierrez
PLACE 9-2 5 Mangum C J Hernandez
SHOW 9-2 1 Allnight Moonlight J Loveberry
WILD CARD 7-2 2 Benoit B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 3 Stiff Drink A Castillo
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Real Action C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX


RACE #8 $51,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 TOPSY

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 2 Topsy B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 4-1 9 Titled Lady R Gutierrez
SHOW 9-2 7 Varmlander D L Parker
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Taylors Tap A Green

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Flamand M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Just Like Magic E Morales

* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX


RACE #9 $51,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 8 Cousin Larry D L Parker
PLACE 7-2 9 Crump J Loveberry
SHOW 6-1 4 Jeeper C J Hernandez
WILD CARD 5-1 6 Brigadier General R Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Guntown B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 1 Bright Spark A Beschizza

* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - February 25

Feb. 24, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

BEST BET: #10 SASSY LASS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 10 Sassy Lass C Bailey
PLACE 4-1 3 Uncle Shortys Girl W De La Cruz
SHOW 5-2 4 Indian Irish M Garcia
WILD CARD 20-1 1 Sophies Star K R Jordan

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 9 Twinkling Irish E Medellin
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 6 Finishwhatustarted N Juarez

* EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/10 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX


RACE #2 $51,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 4 Greatheart D Cabrera
PLACE 2-1 8 Saqeel C A Torres
SHOW 6-1 3 Jolly Tommy W De La Cruz
WILD CARD 20-1 10 Idratherbeblessed N Juarez

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 7 Charter Oak R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 6 Icarus F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX


RACE #3 $106,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:03 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 1 Frosted Grace C A Torres
PLACE 4-1 6 Thomas Shelby I Castillo
SHOW 3-1 5 Caddo River J Rosario
WILD CARD 12-1 3 Trident Hit R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 8 Max Player R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 4 Background R Bowen

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX


RACE #4 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 2 King Russell R Bejarano
PLACE 3-1 1 Tahoe Run C A Torres
SHOW 6-5 6 Seeking Unity I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD 20-1 3 Deluca F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 8 Onthestage I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 4 Stormin Army N Juarez

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX


RACE #5 $104,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:05 PM ET

BEST BET: #10 GO WEST

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 10 Go West F Arrieta
PLACE 2-1 8 Knocker Down I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 8-1 4 Uncle Buddy I Castillo
WILD CARD 8-1 5 Skelly R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 30-1 9 Sea to Success R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Absolute Chaos R Zimmerman

* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/10 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX


RACE #6 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 9 Malibu Toast I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 6-1 2 Flyin Bessie J Rosario
SHOW 8-1 5 Dawny K Harr
WILD CARD 8-1 3 Grove R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 8 Beautiful Bolt N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 6 Afternoon Tea F Prat

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/9 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX


RACE #7 $150,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:06 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 CAROUSEL STAKES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 5 Yuugiri R Santana Jr.
PLACE 5-2 7 Pretty Birdie D Cabrera
SHOW 10-1 1 Hazy Command R Bejarano
WILD CARD 15-1 9 Im the Boss of Me F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 4 Portilla F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 6 Dealing Justice I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX

COMMENTS: YUUGIRI is two for two at the distance and they were not close. PRETTY BIRDIE should be involved from the jump and will try to go gate to wire. HAZY COMMAND won both of her Oaklawn starts and never ran off the board at the distance in nine efforts. IM THE BOSS OF ME could be in top form making the third start after a layoff.



RACE #8 $106,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:36 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 12-1 5 Improbable Journey G Saez
PLACE 15-1 7 Mucho F Geroux
SHOW 2-1 1 Flap Jack N Juarez
WILD CARD 8-1 9 Fitzpatrick J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1 30-1 4 Chipofftheoldblock J K Court
ALTERNATE 2 5-2 6 Spankster D Cabrera

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX


RACE #9 $106,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:07 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 OSBOURNE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 4 Osbourne R Bejarano
PLACE 4-1 2 Golden Hornet T Baze
SHOW 8-1 1 Wayakin C A Torres
WILD CARD 3-1 9 Life Is Hard F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 8 Vulcan W De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 10 Fore Left N Juarez

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX


RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:43 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 HONEYBEE STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 20-1 1 Effortlesslyelgant R Santana Jr.
PLACE 7-2 7 Wet Paint F Prat
SHOW 9-2 2 Towhead I Castillo
WILD CARD 12-1 5 Condensation F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 8 Defining Purpose D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 11 Olivia Twist C A Torres

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX

COMMENTS: EFFORTLESSLYELGANT broke her maiden with ease as the big favorite and could be a big price with a good chance. WET PAINT has been getting better race to race with the top last race speed figure and a bullet workout between races. TOWHEAD is not that far from winning five of her last seven races. CONDENSATION won six of four starts and had better race internals across the board in her last run.



RACE #11 $1,000,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:23 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M REBEL STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 1 Verifying F Geroux
PLACE 8-1 4 Gun Pilot R Santana Jr.
SHOW 5-2 5 Giant Mischief I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD 7-2 6 Reincarnate J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 11 Frosted Departure F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 3 Red Route One C A Torres

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

COMMENTS: VERIFYING smoked the field in her his first race since the Breeders Cup Juvenile. GUN PILOT improved a little bit from race to race through the first three career starts. VERIFYING is the only horse to beat him. GIANT MISCHIEF would be hard to beat if he can run back two races in a win at Keeneland. REINCARNATE is just a neck from winning four of his five starts.



RACE #12 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:53 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 10 Time Andbeyond R Bejarano
PLACE 9-2 2 Skyped C H Borel
SHOW 8-1 1 Shake Up F Arrieta
WILD CARD 8-1 6 Stuck N Snow L S Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 7 Midnight Taxes N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 14 Pearcy Road C A Torres

* EXACTA: 10-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/10 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - February 25

Feb. 24, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:46 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 5 Classic Dreamer J A Batista
PLACE 3-1 6 Bon Dia S Camacho
SHOW 8-1 7 Bonnie Sandra H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD 8-1 3 Beer Bali A Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 2 Noble Attitude M Fuentes

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX


RACE #2 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 8 Thats All Shewrote S Marin
PLACE 6-1 6 Song of the Heart M Meneses
SHOW 5-1 5 Feel Like Guessing M Rowland
WILD CARD 5-1 3 Songteller M Martin

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 1 Rain of Blessing A S Arroyo
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 4 Ostara R R Ordonez

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX


RACE #3 $5,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 7 Hot and Heavy C E Rojas
PLACE 3-1 2 Sea Splendor A A Gallardo
SHOW 4-1 3 Shoo Shine M Rowland
WILD CARD 4-1 8 Rattlesnake Ridge S Spieth

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Khozando K J Coa
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 English Laughter M Iorio

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX


RACE #4 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 7 Kobla Mas M Meneses
PLACE 3-1 1 Kittens Spa A A Gallardo
SHOW 10-1 2 Unleveraged C E Rojas
WILD CARD 8-1 10 Marvs Magic S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Savage R D Allen Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 Jojos Dream A Flores

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/10 BOX


RACE #5 $27,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 7 Faccia Bella A A Gallardo
PLACE 12-1 5 Roman Flame M Meneses
SHOW 2-1 3 Englished P Morales
WILD CARD 3-1 1 Newtons Star S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 8 Bengala Joy H R Diaz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 2 Elsinore L Sosa

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX


RACE #6 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET

BEST BET: #8 ABOVE PAR

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 8 Above Par S Camacho
PLACE 7-2 3 Beauty Quist A Suarez
SHOW 12-1 4 Rasmalai A Flores
WILD CARD 5-1 5 Shes Rednecker P Morales

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Band Sweetheart H Villa-Gomez
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 So Moxie K Mendez

* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX


RACE #7 $24,000 STARTER HANDICAP
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:48 PM ET

BEST BET: #8 KATIES A LADY

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 8 Katies a Lady A A Gallardo
PLACE 9-2 3 Lenten Rose P Morales
SHOW 4-1 5 Pugilist J C Ferrer
WILD CARD 6-1 1 Panotti S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 2 Cindys Song R A Bracho
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 6 Inannas Quest D Centeno

* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX


RACE #8 $8,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET

BEST BET: #3 GIRL PRO

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 3 Girl Pro C E Rojas
PLACE 3-1 5 Pretty Flattering M Jimenez
SHOW 6-1 6 Disco Queen S Camacho
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Dia de Sol K Mendez

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 8 Brycens Gold P Morales
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 2 Theuncapturedlady A A Gallardo

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX


RACE #9 $24,000 STARTER HANDICAP
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 10 Initforthelove S Camacho
PLACE 6-1 1 On the Couch R D Allen Jr.
SHOW 12-1 3 Van Dusen A A Gallardo
WILD CARD 6-1 9 Fatimas Blessing P Morales

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 Dream Liner C E Rojas
ALTERNATE 2 7-2 8 Sandy Lane Kitten S Marin

* EXACTA: 10-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Rebel Stakes | February 25, 2023

Feb. 24, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $1 Million Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 5:23 p.m. Central

(5) Giant Mischief had an awkward start and did well to finish second at a mile. Gets more distance here and has been working sharply for this start for Cox, who has been piling up wins in Kentucky Derby preps. Looks best in a quality field. (6) Reincarnate was a stakes winner last time out for Baffert and will make his bid for Derby points with a new trainer. Looks like the one to fear. (1) Verifying posted a big win over the track in his 3-year-old debut and should benefit from a rail trip. Certainly has the credentials to land in the winner’s circle. (3) Red Route One made up a ton of ground in the Southwest Stakes and will be a stretch threat here. Betting strategy: 5 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 1-3-5-6.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - February 25

Feb. 24, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (8) Wildcat Star adds blinkers for a return to Tapeta and may not look back on the front end. (9) Always Connected may appreciate a cutback to a sprint. (7) Juno Sea could be set for a big effort after a layoff. (3) Marthamaywhovier may improve with Lasix. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7-8-9.

5th race – (6) Spectacular Gal was a game second last time at this level and should score today. (4) Amazin Queen was also second last time and looks like the main rival. (1) Z First has speed and the rail and could be tough to reel in. (3) Mandy Green may rebound in this field. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-6.

8th race – (9) Chasing the Crown (A) was a good third after an eight-month layoff and should move forward off that effort. (6) Sosua Summer will welcome the added distance here. (5) Husband Material should benefit from his comeback race and be more of a factor here. (1) Call Curt might perk up on turf. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-9.

10th race – (7) Chili Flag makes her U.S. debut for Brown and seems on edge for a strong showing. (3) Wonka showed some determination in a win last time and should be a main threat here. (11) Spanish Baroque also makes her first start in the U.S. for Brown and cannot be ignored. (6) Sweet Serenade was hurt by a wide trip last time and should be more competitive here. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-7-11. Doubles: 3-6-7-11 with 2-3-4-9.

11th race – (9) Judge Davis (B) woke up with a big effort at long odds last time and seems primed to duplicate that performance in this field. (2) Principe d’Oro returns from a 10-month layoff for Pletcher and shapes up as the one to fear. (4) Giant Game had a useful comeback race and take a step forward here. (3) Mr. Tito’s seems capable of a better effort than his last try. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-9.
No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(9) Chasing the Crown A, 1/28 8 GP Finished 3rd after a layoff
(9) Judge Davis B, 1/13 11 GP Was an improved second last time

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Hotlist - February 25

Feb. 24, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5th race [NY, Alw 72000 N1X, 6F] – (7) Grannys Connection (A) won an open company maiden special weight by more than six lengths after running second in her debut against NY-breds. (1) Royal Currency broke her maiden in November and since then has a pair of second-place finishes at this level. (3) Jet Set Juliet had the lead, finished third last time, and now changes barns. (2) Bern Rosey Bern won a $16,000 claimer in December, was claimed, and since then made one start at this level.

7th race [Alw 82000 N1X, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 25, 2023

Feb. 23, 2023

Race 10 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday February 25 | Post Time 5:43 PM EasternHoneybee Stakes – Grade 3 Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies, Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

The Honeybee Stakes is an important race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks and drew a full field of 12 three year old fillies, with seven entering the race off first or second place finishes. Before we get to the contenders let’s discuss a horse I think is a “vulnerable” morning line favorite, Grand Love (3), who helps make the race very playable. As we’ve seen recently in the Road to the Derby division, horses making their first starts as three year olds tend to be bet by the public at large as if they ran last month, rather than last fall, and that is the case with Grand Love, who was last seen on November fourth when finishing sixth of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She had won in her debut in August, in a sprint, then finished third as the even money favorite in the Pocahontas Stakes in September. She was a need-the-lead type last year and there is absolutely no reason she should be the favorite as she is far from the most probable horse to win this race. Still, I hope the public at large follows suit with the low morning line and that will result in other horses offering value for win bets.

The top two in terms of probability to win are the next two morning line favorites, Wet Paint (7), who opens at 7 to 2 and Towhead (2), who opens at 9 to 2. We’ll start with Towhead, not only because of higher odds but also because she’s drawn beautifully in the two post, outside a horse in Effortlesslyelgant (1), who led from start to finish four weeks ago in a six furlong sprint and who will have to be sent for the lead from the start. That allows Towhead to get the rail easily going into the first turn as Effortlesslyelgant, Grand Love, Condensation (5) (who just led from start to finish at a mile), as well as the three most outside horses – Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12) set the pace or push the horses which are in front. Considering Towhead relaxed in fourth at the half mile-mark last time out before launching her bid and easily drawing off, she should get a dream trip under Isaac Castillo, who rode her for the first time in her first local start on January 20.

Wet Paint (7) debuted on turf and that was completely irrelevant. Since then her three dirt races have all been “A” efforts, resulting in a win in October, a runner-up effort in December and a very strong win on January 28. That last win came in the local prep for the Honeybee, the Martha Washington Stakes, in which Flavien Prat (who was riding for the first time and who rides today), got her to relax in sixth early before she made a big move on the turn to get to third, then drew off late. She’s improved in each of her three starts since her debut, has put in a big workout at Oaklawn coming into the race, and has every right to win.

After the top pair, there are six horses which can run well, excluding Grand Love, who I’m taking a stand against. Some of those will go to post at high odds, and all can be considered for second on exacta wagers and third on trifecta wagers. Those are Gambling Girl (4), who finished second in the Busanda Stakes in New York last month, Condensation (5), who in spite of wiring the field two weeks ago has closed from behind, and the four most outside runners – Defining Purpose (8), Boss Lady Bailey (9), Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12). Taxed finishes second, Defining Purpose third, in the Martha Washington behind Wet Paint while Boss Lady Bailey was second behind Towhead last month. Doudoudouwanadance won the first three starts of her career last summer and fall then ran badly and put in a very strong second best of 131 five furlong workout so could rebound, while Olivia Twist showed she belongs at this level when winning the Trapeze Stakes in December but faltered badly when fifth in the Martha Washington.

Win bets:

I will consider win bets on Towhead (2) and Wet Paint (7) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher, with emphasis on Towhead as she will likely present higher odds.

Exactas:

Towhead (2) and Wet Paint (7) over Towhead (2), Gambling Girl (4), Condensation (5), Defining Purpose (8), Boss Lady Bailey (9), Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

February 25, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 14-race program set for this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

3-Bettor Memories (3-1)-Raced in 150.2 in the last 2 starts and if comes up with that kind of speed it could lead to a win here. Drops and Gingras should have this veteran engaged throughout.
7-As Always (6-1)-This is the other Burke trainee and David Miller lands here tonight. There aren't any Jimmy Freight's in this field and should be a main player. Probably can close fastest of all but needs a trip to win.

Race 11

3-Dribbling Bi (8-1)-Has had trouble at this level but that was before Lasix. Steps up off a win and should provide a price if improvement continues in the 2nd start on Lasix.
8-Taxi Out S (9/2)-Comes off an even effort in its US debut on a track rated good. Looking for better, Dunn sticks over the 3-5-7 and maybe a dry track will help.

Race 12

4-Arrhythmic Surge (5-1)-Drops after getting a bumpy trip and Joe B gets the call tonight. Might be ready for a picture, raced better in last. This pilot should get a good early seat and be in striking range down the lane.
6-Leon David (7/2)-Finally gets some post relief after being stuck with post 9 in the last 2 starts. Gingras sticks and looks like a main player.

Race 13

1-Rockin The Aces (7/2)-Was 11-lengths back at the half and rallied to finish 3rd. Sizzled the back half and finished with a 26.1 last quarter. Dunn should be closer to the leaders throughout and take his chances down the lane.
3-Revolver N (3-1)-This is Todd McCarthy's choice over #6, this feels like a drop and pop situation. Maybe a new set of hands will wake this 9-year-old up and could have found a beatable field.

0.50 Late Pick 4

3,7/3,8/4,6/1,3
Total Bet=$8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Golden Gate Best Plays - Feb. 25, 2023

February 25, 2023

With racing rained out in Southern California this weekend, let’s turn our sights to the Bay Area, where wet weather can be dismissed as nothing more than an inconvenience thanks to the all-weather Tapeta racing surface. Saturday’s card at Golden Gate Fields is typically challenging, but we’ve identified a couple of double-digit long shots that may be worth your consideration in the win pool and/or the exactas and trifectas.

Eighth Race – Golden Gate Fields (post time: 4:15 PT)
3-Topanticipation (GB) (10-1)

Trainer Manuel Badilla has two entrants in the featured eighth race, a second-level allowance event at a mile and one-sixteenth for older fillies and mares. The 2-1 morning line favorite, Signorina Merisi, is strictly the one to beat after winning her first two local starts since being imported from England, most recently in a productive, highly rated race over this course and distance last month. No doubt, the progressive daughter of Caravaggio could easily win again. However, stable mate Topanticipation was a better filly overseas, having competed in valuable handicaps and listed stakes, and has trained well enough to be fit and ready for her U.S. debut. Worth noting is that she has won off a layoff in the past, having registered a smart handicap victory at Leicester in England following a more than six month vacation last spring. She’s a first-time Lasix user with a strong closing kick, so at 10-1 on the morning line, she merits a strong look in the win pool and in the various exotic options.


Ninth Race - Golden Gate Fields (post time: 4:45 PT)
5-Stormin Galileo (12-1)

After more than 15 months on the sidelines, Stormin Galileo returned 20 days ago in a restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claiming sprint and shook off some of the rust when finishing a close fifth (beaten a length and one half) in what was a strong race for the level. The son of Circumference established the pace from his rail draw and led the way until inside the furlong pole before giving way grudgingly in the closing stages. Under the circumstances, it was a sharp effort, so much so that trainer Isidro Tamayo has chosen to protect him today with a raise to the starter’s allowance ($50,000) level while switching to one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, Irving Orozco. Lightly raced and a winner of his only prior two-turn race gate-to-wire, the 5-year-old gelding seems certain to employ similar front-running tactics in a race that projects to have comfortable early splits, so at 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a bit of a gamble.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Sam Stormy He's back off about a four-month break after a no-show effort on the dirt, but his career debut on the grass at Kentucky Downs was pretty solid, and he wouldn't be a surprise while getting back on the grass with Lasix for the first time.
#6 More Than Eve He ran okay in that first turf try last out, and he should be in line for a really good go of things while tracking the pace. A little worried that he gives away ground late in all of his races.
#1 Kid Ketchum He debuts for a barn that's hitting at 40% this season, and it'd be no surprise to see this one be live at first asking either. Check him out on the tote and track.
Race Summary Sam Stormy has room to bounce back here while moving back to the turf, and I think he's probably going to find a good spot spying the speed in his first turf route trip.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Shoplifter She's back off the bench after being last seen up the track in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and she did some good work going short early in her career. Wouldn't be a shock to see her fire at this trip while coming back with Lasix for the first time.
#8 Neutralize The price should be more appealing this time around as she exits a dull try at 7/5 last out when facing some of these. Wouldn't be a surprise to see her bounce back here.
#2 Topsy She showed solid pace when wiring a group at first asking earlier this year, but there might be enough pace to keep her honest in the early going here while stepping up to face winners. Talent is there.
Race Summary Shoplifter is Grade III placed and might be ready to go on the big class drop here -- she looks competitive off the layoff today even if the focus of the campaign may be on races a bit longer than this.

Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Brigadier General Think he might offer a reasonable enough price to jump in while returning off the September break, and he might be the right one to make a big move on the far turn and battle it out.
#9 Crump He makes a lot of sense in here while coming off a couple modest tries at Turfway, as he was very good here in three main-track starts last season and might wake up on the surface switch.
#5 Guntown I've been chasing this guy a bit in recent starts, and he was no threat when second best to a tough chalk in that last one. Think his baseline run keeps him the mix today.
Race Summary Brigadier General gets the call in a fun finale. He's tactical enough to settle off a couple more committed forward players, but he should be in a perfect spot to make an attacking move into or on the far turn. His only local route try wasn't bad....