Friday 4/14/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles TownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ct0414zf.pdf&exp=04/16/2023&pds=CT_-_04/14/2023&var=RACE_DATE=04/14/2023;TRACK_CODE=CT&SAP=FREEPICS)


Charles Town - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (2-3) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)



Starter Allowance $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 7:32P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS SINCE APRIL 14, 2021. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. AARON'S TAP is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BEVERLY PARK: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 day s. SUBJECT TO CHANGE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AARON'S TAP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at leas t 120 lbs. RUNABOUT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



4

BEVERLY PARK

6/5


7/2




8

SUBJECT TO CHANGE

6/1


7/1




6

AARON'S TAP

6/1


8/1




9

RUNABOUT

5/1


8/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

PROTA

2


12/1

Front-runner

82


71


86.2


72.2


64.2




8

SUBJECT TO CHANGE

8


6/1

Front-runner

87


82


83.8


79.6


72.1




1

MUCHACHO MACHO

1


12/1

Front-runner

88


76


58.8


69.4


53.9




4

BEVERLY PARK

4


6/5

Stalker

94


85


72.8


83.8


81.8




5

ANTIPOISON

5


8/1

Stalker

86


78


66.4


72.4


64.4




9

RUNABOUT

9


5/1

Stalker

91


90


54.8


82.2


75.2




6

AARON'S TAP

6


6/1

Trailer

87


82


66.6


81.0


73.0




7

WE B SHACKIN

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

75


66


71.0


68.2


52.7




3

NOON TIME GEM

3


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

91


75


32.4


67.8


53.8

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=rp0414zf.pdf&exp=04/16/2023&pds=RP_-_04/14/2023&var=RACE_DATE=04/14/2023;TRACK_CODE=RP&SAP=FREEPICS)


Remington Park - Race 10

WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12) (.50 Cent Minimum)



Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 10:03


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS MY HOCKS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. FANCY SCARFACE: Quarte r Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TRES CRYSTALS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



6

JESS MY HOCKS

5/1


5/2




5

FANCY SCARFACE

5/2


5/1




3

TRES CRYSTALS

2/1


6/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

MR GOODBYE

1


20/1

Average

88


80


5.7


0.0


0.0




2

THE SWAMP

2


20/1

Average

81


81


4.4


0.0


0.0




3

TRES CRYSTALS

3


2/1

Average

97


91


3.8


0.0


0.0




4

TEMPTING DANCE

4


9/2

Average

85


81


4.4


0.0


0.0




5

FANCY SCARFACE

5


5/2

Fast

99


96


3.5


0.0


0.0




6

JESS MY HOCKS

6


5/1

Fast

113


102


2.8


0.0


0.0




7

CURLS PATTI WAGON

7


6/1

Fast

83


80


1.0


0.0


0.0




8

JESSIES ALLSTAR

8


15/1

Average

93


79


5.4


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=gp0414zm.htm&exp=04/16/2023&pds=GP_-_04/14/2023&var=RACE_DATE=04/14/2023;TRACK_CODE=GP&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Gulfstream Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:12pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 PEACH NECTAR (ML=4/1)


PEACH NECTAR - This front runner is shortening up today. Should aid his likelihood of winning. Horses out of the barn of Joseph have been strong on the turf. Should do well in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FIGHT (ML=3/1), #5 MR. AMERICAN (ML=7/2), #8 YEAGER (ML=4/1),

FIGHT - The fig last time out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued contestant. MR. AMERICAN - This racer hasn't shown much in the last couple affairs. YEAGER - Tough to take this pony at the price after the finish position (fifth) in the last race. Hard to put your money on this speed merchant. Too much speed in the race. Quite unimpressive speed rating last time around the track at Monmouth Park at 5 furlongs. Don't think this pony will improve too much in today's race.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PEACH NECTAR - The addition of blinks should keep this colt's mind on business. Take stock in this horse today.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 PEACH NECTAR to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=fon0414zz.htm&exp=04/16/2023&pds=FON_-_04/14/2023&var=RACE_DATE=04/14/2023;TRACK_CODE=FON&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7600 Class Rating: 67

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 R VOO'S TABOO 5/2




# 5 LEVEL 6/1




# 9 RING TAILED TOOTER 12/1




R VOO'S TABOO is the most competitive bet in this race. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 72 - of his last effort. Cardoso has a win percentage of 18 over the last month. Cardoso has recent return on investment figures which make this one a strong bet. LEVEL - Earned a formidable speed rating last time out. Haar has recent ROI numbers which make this one a very good bet. RING TAILED TOOTER - Solid jockey with handler figs make this horse a solid pick. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Hoffman have shown very solid results recently.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=gg0414zm.htm&exp=04/16/2023&pds=GG_-_04/14/2023&var=RACE_DATE=04/14/2023;TRACK_CODE=GG&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 3:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 MEDAL ICE (ML=8/1)
#2 WAY TOO HOT (ML=8/1)
#6 BRUNO B (ML=7/2)


MEDAL ICE - This thoroughbred coming off a good race in the last month is a contender in my book. When Chavez and Lenzini unite on horses the ROI has been fabulous at +65. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is strong. Lenzini drops him in this race fit and ready to go. WAY TOO HOT - Trainer McCanna moves this thoroughbred down in class ranks to face a weaker level today. Look for a sharp race this time out. 58-60-77 are last three speed ratings. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this field. BRUNO B - Orozco and France partnered with one another are a horseplayer's friend. France drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to believe this thoroughbred has a darn good chance at this level. Gelding will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 NICKEL NICKEL NINE (ML=9/5), #1 EASTER TRIBUTE (ML=5/2),

NICKEL NICKEL NINE - Not likely that this animal will finish better than he did last time out of the box when ending up fourth. Hasn't been winning recently when made the morning-line favorite. Take a look at his record. Golden Gate Fields has not been kind to this less than sharp equine. EASTER TRIBUTE - This gelding hasn't had any positive efforts in short distance events in the last couple months.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 MEDAL ICE to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with [2,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:

Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race TrackPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=cmr0414zz.htm&exp=04/16/2023&pds=CMR_-_04/14/2023&var=RACE_DATE=04/14/2023;TRACK_CODE=CMR&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 33

FOR NATIVE FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 14 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 PRIVILEGIADA 3/1




# 3 D' VALENTINA 4/1




# 5 AZONDRA 5/1




PRIVILEGIADA has a strong shot to take this race. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Lisboa running at this distance are the most favorable in this field. Will almost certainly compete quite well in the pace contest which bodes well with this group of animals. This filly has been constatntly racing well in her latest outings. D' VALENTINA - Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is sound for this racer. This animal ought to be bet upon at the expected high odds. AZONDRA - Velez should be able to get this filly to break out quickly in this contest. It's a good sign that Gabriel is using Velez on this entrant.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Kentucky Derby Deluxe Dozen (updated 4/14/23) April 14, 2023
(updated Friday, April 14, 2023)


1 - DERMA SOTOGAKE
Chestnut colt - Mind Your Biscuits x Amour Poesie, by Neo Universe
Trainer: H. Otanashi
Jockey: C. Lemaire
Points: 100

Positives: $163k yearling (in Japan); winner of four of eight career starts, including the 9.5F UAE Derby-G2 (by five and one-half lengths) at Meydan in late March gate-to-wire while running the second fastest time (1:55.81) of 13 at the distance in race history; similar front-running tactics are likely to be employed in the Kentucky Derby-G1 in a race that appears to lack other committed speed; versatile sort has been successful from mid-pack in winning races in Japan; his victory in Dubai earned a 120 Racing Post rating, the same that was assigned to Rich Strike in his Kentucky Derby win last year; already stabled at Churchill Downs and will have more than a month of training under the Twin Spires to acclimate.

Concerns: Kentucky Derby entrants exiting the UAE Derby have performed poorly, having finished unplaced in 18 previous attempts; Mendelssohn took a similar path in 2018 after running the fastest time in UAE Derby history (1:55.19) but finished last (virtually eased) behind Justify as the third choice (6-1).

*

2 - FORTE
Brown colt – Violence x Queen Caroline, by Blame
Trainer: T. Pletcher
Jockey: I. Ortiz, Jr.
Points: 190

Positives: $110k Keeneland yearling; first foal of a multi (non-graded) stakes winning mare; 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 winner; successful in six of seven career races, including the 9F Florida Derby-G1 and 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 in his two starts leading up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; prefers to settle in mid-pack and quicken when given his cue; graduated in May of his 2-year-old season and has never missed a beat since; style and pedigree suggests he should enjoy the long Churchill Downs stretch; based purely on resume he is the likely and deserved Kentucky Derby favorite.

Concerns: earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure (100 in the 8.5F BC Juvenile S.-G1) just once in his seven career races and his numbers have regressed in both of his 2023 outings (95 from 98), fostering a fear that despite having won his last five starts he has peaked and begun a downward cycle.

*

3 - PRACTICAL MOVE
Bay colt – Practical Joke x Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex
Trainer: T. Yakteen
Jockey: R. Vasquez
Points: 160

Positives: $230k OBS April; dam a stakes-placed half-sister to two stakes winners; undefeated in four starts around two turns (one via disqualification) including the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in March (by two and one-half lengths from Geaux Rocket Go) and most recently the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 (by a nose from Mandarin Hero); earned back-to-back 100 Beyer speed figures in both, making him one of the fastest in his crop on pure numbers; has excellent tactical speed that consistently produces trouble-free trips; always finds a way to produce a second move under pressure; displayed strong, consistent juvenile form that included a dominating victory in the 8.5F Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 in December; one of the most genuine and dependable colts in the crop.

Concerns: based on pedigree, he is not certain to improve as the distances increase; fast on figures but may have reached his ceiling; was fully extended to win the Santa Anita Derby over a very fast surface while unable to produce separation under pressure in a race produced a final three furlong fraction of an average :38 2/5.

*

4 - ANGEL OF EMPIRE
Bay colt - Classic Empire x Armony’s Angel, by To Honor and Serve
Trainer: B. Cox
Jockey: F. Prat
Points: 154

Positives: $70k Keeneland yearling; first foal from placed dam who is a half-sister to two stakes winners; successful in his last pair and three of his last four, most recently the 9F Arkansas Derby-G1 in early April by four and one-half lengths with complete authority while appearing to have plenty left in the tank and winning without being knocked about; prefers to settle in mid-pack and then accelerate from the quarter pole home; Beyer speed figures have risen in each of his six career starts; pedigree suggests he will enjoy the Derby’s classic distance; retains jockey Flavian Prat, who chose him over his other option, Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Kingsbarns.

Concerns: though he has produced a forward move in every race, the career top 94 Beyer speed figure that he earned in his Arkansas Derby victory rates several points lower of what the other major contenders have already achieved; none among those he easily handled at Oaklawn Park are considered even remote contenders in Louisville, so the next step up the class ladder will be significant.

*

5 - TAPIT TRICE
Grey/roan colt – Tapit x Danazatrice, by Dunkirk
Trainer: T. Pletcher
Jockey: L. Saez
Points: 150

Positives: $1.3 million Keeneland yearling; third foal, dam a stakes winning half-sister to champion 2-year-old filly Jaywalk; closed belatedly to be third in his debut and since has reeled off four consecutive wins, including the 9F Blue Grass S.-G1 at Keeneland in early April; not a quick type but covers plenty of ground with long, efficient strides; earned a career top Beyer speed figure (99) despite losing ground throughout in his most recent victory (by a neck from perfect tripper Verifying, pair well clear) while giving indication that the longer Derby trip will be of benefit; likely has further improvement and development in him and will not have to improve much to be a strong threat at Churchill Downs.

Concerns: Usually breaks okay but lacks gate quickness and invariably falls several lengths behind during the early stages of his races, which costs him a preferred forward or mid-pack early position and leaves him with plenty to do; took the overland route to avoid traffic trouble in his two most recent victories but was good enough to overcome the ground loss; likely will be forced to do the same at Churchill Downs in a 20-runner affair, making a favorable trip all the more problematic.

*

6 - KINGSBARNS
Bay colt – Uncle Mo x Lady Tapit, by Tapit
Trainer: T. Pletcher
Jockey: TBD
Points: 100

Positives: $800k FTS March 2-year-old (breezed in :20 3/5); second foal from a stakes-placed half-sister to Gozzip Girl (American Oaks-G1, etc.); undefeated in three starts, most recently a three and one-half length pace-setting victory in the Louisiana Derby-G2 at Fair Grounds in late March while able to take full advantage of a highly favorable pace flow; has proved to be equally effective in second flight, stalking roles in his first two career starts; has yet to be truly tested and may have considerably more to give if required; Beyer numbers have risen dramatically in just three starts (95, 85, 74) while providing evidence of an extremely high ceiling.

Concerns: while it is difficult to find fault in perfection, he almost certainly will need to produce yet another significant forward move with regards to speed figures when facing the best in the division in Louisville; his three victories have been more workmanlike than brilliant, and he may be compromised if unable to secure a favorable early position and be forced to produce a rally from far off the pace.

*

7 - SKINNER
Bay colt – Curlin x Winding Way, by Malibu Moon
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: V. Espinoza
Points: 45

Positives: $510k OBS April sale; dam a California graded stakes winning full sister 2yo Saratoga stakes winner Kauai Katie; gradually improving with racing but is a winner of only a maiden race from six career starts; produced a career top performance (99 Beyer) when third beaten a half-length in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April, looming a strong threat midway on the far turn to vie for the lead but then losing a bit of his steam late in the late stages; most effective as a deep closer and has been compromised to some degree by being asked to perform over a speed favoring dirt track; seems certain to enjoy the Derby’s classic distance and would benefit enormously from a legitimate early pace, a patient ride, and a main kind to his style; certainly not without a chance to make a serious impact if conditions break his way.

Concerns: currently rated number 21 according to the intended Kentucky Derby starter points list, one shy of being assured a starting position but very likely to draw in; talented enough to make a serious run at Churchill Downs but may be compromised by a race lacking in early speed; most effective when held up early and allowed to produce a late kick; lack of tactical early speed increases his chances of encountering traffic trouble.

*

8 - MAGE
Chestnut colt – Good Magic x Puca, by Big Brown
Trainer: G. Delgado
Jockey: TBD
Points: 50

Positives: 290k Timonium 2-year-old; second foal; dam a stakes winning half-sister to multiple Gr. 1 winning turf stayer Finnegans Wake; lightly raced with enormous potential; was a Gulfstream Park debut maiden winner in January before finishing a respectable fourth (by seven lengths to Forte) in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2; stepped forward considerably in the Florida Derby-G1 in his most recent outing when moving a furlong too soon, hitting the front in mid-stretch, but then being worn down late in the closing stages; pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance; has a good turn of foot that probably would most effectively be unleashed from the quarter pole home.

Concerns: a lack of experience and a proper foundation (see Taiba, 2022) may stunt his progress; barn has had little previous success with developing stakes-quality 3-year-olds; possibly will be ridden by his fourth different jockey in his fourth start; clearly requires a patient, waiting ride.

*

9 – MANDARIN HERO
Brown colt – Shanghai Bobby x Namura Nadeshiko, by Fuji Kiseki)
Trainer: T. Fujita
Jockey: k. Kimura
Points: 40

Positives – began his career winning his first four starts in his native Japan, including an 8F listed stakes two races back before going down by a neck in a valuable 9F listed affair in February; was quite impressive in his U.S. debut when nosed out by Practical Move in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April (always within range saving ground and then staying on bravely between horses); sire was the 2012 Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old but enjoyed only modest success at stud in the States before being exported to Japan; clearly a talented colt with good tactical speed based on his Santa Anita performance and should stay the Derby trip if given the chance.

Concerns – currently listed at 24 among those intended to be entered for the Kentucky Derby and therefore is no sure thing to be among the top 20 when official entries are drawn Monday, May 1; would have to be considered at least a mid-level contender if he is able to draw in.

*

10 - TWO PHIL’S
Chestnut colt – Hard Spun x Mia Torri, by General Quarters
Trainer: L. Rivelli
Jockey: J. Loveberry
Points: 123

Positives: homebred; dam a stakes winning sprinter and multiple graded stakes placed; visually quite pleasing winning the 9F Jeff Ruby Stakes S.-G3 at Turfway Park in late March, settling off the pace before uncorking an impressive late kick to win by more than five lengths; will boast the best Beyer figure in the Kentucky Derby field (101, a career top by 13 points); style suggests he will handle a classic distance; captured the Street Sense S.-G3 in dominant fashion over the Churchill Downs main track as a 2-year-old (sloppy surface) and has won or placed in five stakes appearances overall; has an edge in experience, as no intended Derby entrant will have had more career starts (8) than he; dangerous if he can duplicate his most recent victory.

Concerns: his Turfway Park win was accomplished in his first try over a synthetic (Tapeta) surface and far exceeded anything that he had accomplished over conventional dirt, allowing for the possibility that he is an all-weather one-hit wonder; numbers in the seven races prior to his last win were average at best; other than his dam, there is little quality in his extended female family.

*

11 – VERIFYING
Bay colt – Justify x Diva Delite, by Repent
Trainer: B. Cox
Jockey: T. Gaffalione
Points: 54

Positives: $775k yearling; seventh foal from a stakes winning dam; half-brother to top class Midnight Bisou (champion older dirt female); career best 99 Beyer figure when second in the Blue Grass S.-G1 (by a neck to Tapit Trice) in early April after prompting the pace and winding up more than five lengths clear of the rest; often displays good tactical speed that usually produces clean journeys; enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign, winning his debut at Saratoga and then finishing second (to Blazing Sevens) in the Champagne S.-G1.

Concerns: gives the indication that the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby trip might be stretching his limit; though certainly running a very good race, he failed to capitalize on a soft, perfect, pace pressing trip at Keeneland; style suggests he needs to be within range of the pacesetter throughout and will be far less effective if required to make up an appreciable amount of ground.

*

12 - CONFIDENCE GAME
Brown colt – Candy Ride x Eblouissante, by Bernardini
Trainer: K. Desormeaux
Jockey: K. Tohill
Points: 57

Positives: 25k Keeneland yearling; dam a winning half-sister to horse-of-the-year Zenyatta; sprung an 18-1 upset in the Rebel S.-G2 over a sloppy track in late February; rallying from fifth of 11 to win doing his best with a solid Beyer figure (94) that represented a career top by 11 points; previously had been a distant third (beaten 7+ lengths) in the Lecomte S.-G3 behind Instant Coffee; possibly needs a wet surface to be at his best; certain to enjoy a classic distance but perhaps not classic company; versatile sort has won on the front end and from mid-pack; is a two-time winner over a dry, fast surface at Churchill Downs,

Concerns: will enter the Kentucky Derby without having the benefit of a race since late February; shows a light work tab in the interim; dry main track outings have earned weak speed figures; nothing he had done in his six races prior to his sloppy track Rebel S. win would suggest he had the quality needed to act with the best in his division; might have to pray for rain.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Pick 6 Analysis: Friday, April 14 April 14, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
Golden Gate Fields’ Jackpot Pick 6 carryover pool more than doubled last week, bringing the total to $19,723 for the 20-cent wager on the Friday, April 14 card. With two, six-horse fields early in the sequence, it probably will take a couple winning longshot selections along the way to be the lone winning ticket holder. Here’s a closer look with a suggested $57.60 play to follow:

GG 3rd Race (5:12 EST) -- SINGLE MERIT took some money but hit the gate at the start and raced 5-wide as a non-factor first out. His dam, Logical Single, was 10/4-5-1 and a proven allowance runner on Golden Gate’s synthetic track, so he is a must use at a good price to start the Pick 6. TIGER’S ARROW pressed and overtook next-out winner Rancho Red at the top of the stretch, only to get caught by Lookout Point, who repeated in a $12,500 claimer at 10-1 odds.

GG 4th Race (5:42 EST) -- RIVER’S BEHEST “showed a good late kick” to break his maiden on the class drop and cutback in distance. He’s a habitual slow starter but could pull off a repeat upset if he stays in contact with the leaders. DAD BOD set a solid pace before fading at 6F, now he adds blinkers and class drops off the claim. The third-place finisher in his last start went wire-to-wire at one mile under these conditions in his next start.

GG 5th Race (6:12 EST) -- UPSTART YANKEE, out-kicked by the 4-to-5 favorite at one mile on the synthetic track, returns to turf, where he was carried out 4-wide on the final turn, then rallied inside to finish second in his lone try in November. The winner of that grass race, Rio King, won his last three starts by a combined 9-1/2 lengths to surpass $84,000 in earnings. UPSTART YANKEE is today’s Pick 6 solo play.

GG 6th Race (6:42 EST) -- Four of the seven entrants exit MSW company. WAY TOO HOT and BRUNO B have speed and offer the best value on the morning line, so use those two on the ticket. EASTER TRIBUTE raced once in each of the last three years but has to be considered after a troubled third against Dad Bod, one of our picks in today’s fourth race.

GG 7th Race (7:12 EST) -- LIAM’S SECRET finished in the money in her last four starts at one mile for higher claiming tags. She kept a busy work tab since March for her first start in 10 months. BIG FAME’s three-peat bid off a six-month layoff was foiled by stablemate Canthelpfallin (5-25, $64k), now she drops below her claim level for a high percentage barn. ST HELENA pressed a soft pace on the stretch-out to this distance but won in ‘determined’ fashion nonetheless in a race that produced an odds-on winner under these conditions.

GG 8th Race (7:42 EST) -- With three first-time starters, four class droppers and one starter first off the claim, go deep in the final leg in hopes that you’re still alive for the “Jackpot.”

Suggested 20-cent Ticket

GG 3rd Race: 1, 7
GG 4th Race: 5, 6
GG 5th Race: 1
GG 6th Race: 1, 2, 6
GG 7th Race: 3, 5, 8
GG 8th Race: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10

Cost: $57.60

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Charles Town - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#6 Barb's Pride
I'm not too sold on any of them in here, but he has been pretty good at this short local trip, and I think the softer spot gives him a chance to wake up. Something like the three-back run keeps him in the mix.


#9 Dancin in Dubai
His recent races make him an obvious player in here, but he was along too late at this local level a few starts back. Capable player, but guessing he's overbet.


#4 Primordial Fear
Wouldn't be any surprise to see him land this on the drop with Woodbine and Parx form in his more recent lines, as he owns a handful of back races on his page that would make him a threat here. Wouldn't argue with anyone landing here.


Race Summary
#11 Hell's Kitchen is rightfully going to command a lot of cash if he goes, so consider him on Gulfstream class if he's in. Barb's Pride has some appeal despite the dull recent runs, and I'm hoping he can get back to his better local form and handle these today.


Charles Town - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#7 Bali Balifly
She has enough speed to find a good spot into the first turn, and that first try with winners at Colonial wasn't terrible. Think she's going to be a good fit here.


#2 Will or Won't
She turned in a solid try off the bench, and that one gives her some room to move forward in this second start back. Thinking she'll bring a bit more late punch tonight.


#8 Timed Out
She's got a page full of running lines that make her the clear one to beat in here, but Aqueduct to Charles Town shippers have an obvious negative ROI in the last few years despite connecting at 25%, and this barn has gone 0-for-4 with their similar types in that time. She has lost her last five at 9/5 or shorter, so I'm going to take a stand. Happy to let her beat me.


Race Summary
Timed Out is a really likely winner here, but the price is sure to be short again on one who has found some different ways to come up short. Bali Balifly is another who comes out of a spot that was tougher than this, and I think she's in the mix if she can fire fresh.


Charles Town - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#10 Captain Sam
Willing to give her a pass for that last one after missing the break, as she does all her work right up on the front end. She's not meeting a ton of super quick early burners, so she might be in line to force the issue the whole way from this draw. Lots to like.


#8 Salty Saul
She has some upside while getting back around one turn at this short trip, and I think this is a slightly softer spot that might give her a bounce-back chance. Interesting at a mid-range price.


#7 Little Bit of That
She found the local conditioned claiming company to her liking last out, and anything approaching a repeat of that effort would make her tough here. Your call at a likely short kind of price.


Race Summary
I'd consider anyone coming in from the also-eligibles, a decent mix of prices with some appeal. Captain Sam gets a solid edge for me in the finale, as I like the trip she figures to find right up on the outside of any other pace players. Salty Saul on spread tickets and sprinkled underneath.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#1 WEST COAST WILDCAT (10-1)
Strong bloodlines, capable barn, watch odds.


#3 CORA’S CHOICE (5-1)
Even effort in turf debut at Gulfstream, enters top barn.


#6 FREE ADMISSION (9-2)
Has speed, hit board in both fast-track starts, gets Lasix.


Race Summary
Thinking WEST COAST WILDCAT will outrun her workouts to launch her career. Her sire, West Coast, was a Grade I winner, debut runner-up and $5.8 million earner, while her dam, New Wave (3-14, $122k), was a first-out MSW winner at Arlington Park. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-6 exacta box.


Laurel Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 FAST TRACKED (8-1)
Rough trip with first-time Lasix, wake-up candidate at inflated price.


#3 MONEY’S WORTH (8-5)
Sustained 4-wide run, ran away from the fave in smashing 7F comeback.


#4 ITALIAN DRESSING (4-1)
Improving, loves Laurel Park, often outruns her odds.


Race Summary
FAST TRACKED broke alertly, steadied twice on the backstretch in traffic and was bumped hard in early stretch while no threat to contending. Stakes-placed as a 2-year-old, she took serious money in her second start this season and could awaken with second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3 exacta box.


Laurel Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 START SINGIN DIXIE (5-1)
Gets in light-weighted, need not be much to win in his debut.


#4 SECRET SANCTUARY (4-1)
Four seconds in routes at Laurel; rest of field is 7/0-0-1 at distance.


#2 DOC ROCK (2-1)
Could take some catching in his third try at this level.


Race Summary
In a field of unproven routers, going with first-time starter START SINGIN DIXIE for a solid barn with maiden claimers. His dam was 3-for-8 and a $55k earner, but all of her wins were sprinting. Bet to win and place and play 7-2 and 7-4 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Aqueduct Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#4 Major Spin
8-5
O Noda
M Franco


2
#8 Doin'ittherightway
5-1
L Rice
D Davis


3
#2 Goin' Good
2-1
B H Cox
M Franco


4
#1 Ouster
4-5
M A Hennig
D Davis


5
#12 Clear Conscience
4-1
C Clement
M Franco


6
#11 Lil Commissioner
7-2
O S Barrera, III
D Davis


7
#4 Whittington Park
8-5
J C Englehart
K Carmouche


8
#5 Aperol Spritz
6-1
K J Breen
J L Ortiz

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Racing Dudes Charles Town Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#2 Just a Flirt
4-5
C E McKee
M Mendez


2
#4 Beverly Park
6-5
N L Cash
Y O Ortiz


3
#5 Vasy Says Nyet
9-5
A Farrior
A Cruz


4
#6 Amicalola Falls
5-2
S L Jackson
W Cullum


5
#1 Strong Heart
9-5
A Farrior
A Bocachica


6
#3 El Lucerito
9-5
M T Campbell
V Rodriguez


7
#9 Dancin in Dubai
8-5
K Brown
M Mendez


8
#8 Timed Out
9-5
J S Englehart
C Hiraldo


9
#6 Sweetonthegents
15-1
D Walters
D Araujo

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Racing Dudes Evangeline Downs Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#4 Majestic Mandate
7-2
J J Gelner
E J Barrera


2
#4 Premium
5-1
G J Husak
J P Vargas


3
#4 Eye Dee Kay
5-2
O Modica
C McMahon


4
#4 A Soldier's Way
5-2
K Broberg
V Del-Cid


5
#1 Mr. Production
7-2
J A Larrosa
J L Rodriguez


6
#4 Coffee County
3-1
L J Cuccia
V Del-Cid


7
#2 Flashing Angelbaby
3-1
B A Brinkman
T L Pompell


8
#6 Lovelyredstilettos
7-2
L Thomas
C McMahon


9
#10 Peanut N Ike
12-1
C Rosier
J L Rodriguez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Fonner Park Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#5 Littlebit Don
6-5
G P Rivera
A B Ramos


2
#5 Brinee
9-5
I V Gonzalez
K Roman


3
#1 Magic in a Hat
8-1
K Martinez
A Martinez


4
#2 Nebraska Red
7-2
S McClain
R Martinez


5
#1 R Voo's Taboo
5-2
G P Rivera
D Cardoso


6
#9 Our Petunia
2-1
R G Hoffman
Z Ziegler

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Golden Gate Fields Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#5 Endless Dream
5-2
J Wong
E A Roman


2
#3 Wicklow Hills
2-1
E L Jackson
C Herrera


3
#7 Tiger's Arrow
4-1
D W Baker
I Orozco


4
#6 Dad Bod
5-2
J Steiner
A Espinoza


5
#1 Upstart Yankee
9-5
T McCanna
F Duran


6
#6 Bruno B
7-2
R France
I Orozco


7
#8 St Helena
2-1
J Wong
A Ayuso


8
#10 Performative
3-1
J Steiner
W Antongeorgi III

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Gulfstream Park Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#6 Gomomischief
9-2
J K Sweezey
E J Zayas


2
#7 Souper Legacy
9-2
D C Hurtak
E J Zayas


3
#3 Last Shift
7-5
A Sano
L Reyes


4
#7 Dazzling Truths
5-2
F Russo
C Sutherland


5
#3 Saint in the City
3-1
W I Mott
E J Zayas


6
#3 Brasstown
8-5
J Delgado
E J Zayas


7
#5 Portofino
6-1
J F Orseno
S Camacho, Jr.


8
#3 Stormy Victory
3-1
R Crichton
E Jaramillo


9
#6 Journeytothemoon
8-5
R B Spatz
E Perez


10
#2 Swirvin
6-1
S A Joseph, Jr.
E J Zayas


11
#8 Neogem
7-2
R Sierra
C Sutherland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Keeneland Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#8 Global Stage
1-1
B H Cox
F Prat


2
#8 Talkin Pharoah
6-1
W A Ward
W A Rodriguez


3
#1 Frigid Lady
4-1
M J Maker
I Ortiz, Jr.


4
#2 Coach Petro
3-1
B H Cox
F Geroux


5
#1 Mrs. Astor
6-1
J Thomas
J R Velazquez


6
#1 Distinctlypossible
5-2
C C Brown
T Gaffalione


7
#3 Love Reigns
7-2
W A Ward
J Rosario


8
#9 Chi Town Lady
9-5
W A Ward
J Rosario


9
#7 Modern Games
3-5
C Appleby
W Buick


10
#10 Tshiebwe
3-1
T A Pletcher
I Ortiz, Jr.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Laurel Park Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#5 Up Against It
5-2
D R Dilodovico
A Cruz


2
#8 Mama's Eyes
7-2
J J Robb
X Perez


3
#2 Barista Vixen
7-5
R J Johnston
R Chiappe


4
#1 Happy Clouds
2-1
A Farrior
A Bocachica


5
#4 Give It a Go
3-1
C A Gonzalez
Y O Ortiz


6
#6 Ragtime Riches
9-2
A Farrior
A Bocachica


7
#6 She Is Wisky
7-2
B T Russell
S Russell


8
#6 Zabracadabra
9-5
G Capuano
C E Lopez


9
#7 Start Singin Dixie
5-1
H De Paz
A Concepcion

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Lone Star Park Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#2 Leprechaun Charm
2-1
K Broberg
E Valdez-Jiminez


2
#6 Delirium
4-1
J Torrez
E Valdez-Jiminez


3
#1 Azunia
2-1
C A Padilla
I V Diego


4
#1 Turn On the Magic
6-1
P Duhon
W Hamilton


5
#1 Simple Pleasure
8-5
K Broberg
R Guerra


6
#8 Bling Mountain
4-1
M J Willis
F Wethey Jr.


7
#2 Fra Mauro
8-5
A Gustafson
J L Alvarez


8
#1 Oil N Candy
2-1
S M Asmussen
S Elliott

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Oaklawn Park Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#4 Coromandel
5-2
L Schultz
F Arrieta


2
#4 Space Odessey
2-1
R Diodoro
C A Torres


3
#6 June Gloom
1-1
R Diodoro
C A Torres


4
#6 Wreaking Havoc
8-5
M A Shirer
R Zimmerman


5
#3 Black Storm
2-1
R Diodoro
C A Torres


6
#6 News Box
3-1
L Schultz
F Arrieta


7
#5 Vegas Blue
5-2
S M Asmussen
K J Asmussen


8
#5 Easy Action
7-5
N W Casse
R Santana, Jr.


9
#4 Gold Strategy
12-1
T Hornsby
F Arrieta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Remington Park Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#10 A Dream to Fill
3-1
D Keener
J Pulido


2
#1 Fg Running Cartel
5-2
J C Villafranco
C R Esqueda


3
#2 Storms Livewire
5-2
M Hurdle
J Hernandez-Gallardo


4
#4 Js Successful Chicken
3-1
D Keener
J A Flores


5
#10 Mighty Mocha
3-1
D Keener
J Salazar


6
#4 Pevs Wire to Wire
5-2
D Keener
J Salazar


7
#6 Rolling Along
3-1
D Arroyo
D A Torres


8
#7 Early Surprise
5-2
S Charette-Hill
C R Esqueda


9
#6 Queen for Cash
5-2
J R Ruiz
R Cruz


10
#6 Jess My Hocks
5-1
M Hurdle
M Delgado


11
#8 Toxic Relationship
7-2
D R Frey
B Candanosa


12
#5 Heavens Lite
4-1
G Valdivia
J Pulido

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Tampa Bay Downs Picks



Race
Pick
Odds
Trainer
Jockey


1
#1 Hannita's Empire
6-5
G S Bennett
J C Ferrer


2
#5 Last Promise
2-1
T P Padilla
J A Batista


3
#5 East Wing
8-5
R S Lerman
H R Diaz, Jr.


4
#2 Unleveraged
3-1
J K Sweezey
A A Rodriguez


5
#2 Li'l Miss Camille
3-1
G S Bennett
S Camacho


6
#3 Duke of Gloucester
9-5
A Machado
S Camacho


7
#3 Discreet Magic
2-1
M Dini
S Marin


8
#8 Ashes to Ashes
10-1
B B Rhone
A Quinonez


9
#1 Sneaky Cheeky
5-2
J Arriagada
S Camacho