Wednesday 7/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Presque Isle Downs - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 Real Good Vybz
She has already had her share of chances, but she has some occasional ability to finish just a bit, and that might serve her well while dropping in class off a couple better-than-expected efforts with special weight groups.


#4 Magic Life
She's probably supposed to win this on form, but I have a couple questions -- she was well meant enough along the way to get Jose Ortiz into the saddle here a couple times, and she didn't run all that badly when showing pace last time out. She made a lot of sense with these running lines when entered for a special weight spot the other day, but now she's up for sale for $15,000 today instead. Fair to think she might drill these, but also fair to wonder if the signs say maybe she's not heading in the right direction.


#3 Some Kind of Crazy
She's the proven form at the level with a couple of trifecta finishes to her name so far, and her rider might have a couple options out of the gate as they try to figure out her running style.


Race Summary
Real Good Vybz might be the right one to try to beat Magic Life, who figures to take some cash while waving a couple red flags on the drop. 'Vybz might really like this local level.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Disaster Recovery
Willing to take a little swing with this second timer in a race where his only serious battle for the lead might come from the guy he chased last out. Maybe this one is a bit tighter and has a run for it while breaking from the fence with Lasix today?


#6 Truckin Tommy
He showed the way early in the same common race as the top choice last out, and that gives him the same sort of pace-playing upside that the top choice has.


#8 Rainbow's Pride
Think he, #9 I Don't See Colors, and #5 I Strong all have similar claims on this whole thing, but they all have the kind of style that could leave them vulnerable to coming alive just a touch too late if the pace doesn't overheat.


Race Summary
Disaster Recovery and Truckin Tommy might have the very front to themselves in here, and I think the former has a little appeal while breaking from the inside with Lasix today. Had a tough time with this one -- feels competitive.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 Paynted Warrior
Think he's a pretty strong anchor for multi-race plays later in the day, as he's got good recent form and owns some pace in a race where that seems to be at a bit of a premium. Think he'll shake free from the guy drawn outside. Tough here.


#1 Grey Charmer
Nothing wrong with his form so far over this surface, and he has enough tactical speed to avoid getting totally outrun behind a potentially modest pace. Logical alternative.


#6 Housebuilder
Dropper landed a small piece when fourth in stakes company off the claim last time out, and he seems like a decent fit for a big piece of this. Slight worry the race won't come back to him enough to land it...


Race Summary
Paynted Warrior has the kind of prompting pace that should have him right in the mix early in a race lacking serious speed, and I'll rely on him to get the job done here with a good race flow.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Penn National - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 BIG BROWN SHOES (7-2)
Succumbed to duel in latest but has held top form for these connections.


#3 ZOOMSTER (12-1)
Romped in last pair on main track, steps up, worth using in all gimmicks.


#1 ASLUCKWOULDHAVEIT (5-2)
Dueled with 9-1 winner, held second, worked :46 bullet since.


Race Summary
BIG BROWN SHOES won 3 of his last 5 sprints at Parx after a 0-for-10 start to his career. He’s used to dueling on the front end and he did show a passing gear when he won at 7F. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-3 exacta box.


Penn National - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#2 ELEVENMONTHSLATER (5-1)
Takes magnified class drop for third start on the lawn, good value play.


#4 RAHMADHAAN (2-1)
Winless on turf and idle since May 2 claim, but barn gets ‘em ready.


#1 BLUEBERRY PIE (5-2)
Tipped 3-wide for stretch drive but couldn’t gain on Pimlico lawn.


Race Summary
ELEVENMONTHSLATER broke her maiden going a route of ground, runs for the cheapest tag of her career and met the likes of repeat winner Neecie Marie and 1-to-2 fave Charmed Way on the turf. Bet to win and place.


Penn National - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#5 GRAB THE GOLD (9-2)
Turf upsetter has six wins and $128k in dirt earnings over track.


#4 ANNAMATED MOON (6-1)
Failed at odds-on in repeat bid, steps up for new barn.


#7 GRAND WISER (2-1)
Shortens up, faces tougher in bid for fifth win in a row.


Race Summary
GRAB THE GOLD sustained a 4- to 6-wide bid on the turn and withstood an objection claim by the connections of the race favorite to spring a 16-1 upset on the turf. He’s more proven on the Penn National main track and handles his once-a-month race schedule well. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury All Turf Pick 3PURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=eqx0712zf.pdf&exp=07/14/2023&pds=EQX_-_07/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=07/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=EQX&SAP=FREEPICS)


Canterbury All Turf Pick 3 - Race 1

Leg A of the Canterbury Park All Turf Pick 3



Claiming $16,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $15,000 • Post:


CBY-R2 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR MINNESOTA BRED WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. MOONSHINE MOXY is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * NOEL'S ANGEL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. BID ONCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HEATIN UP: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



1

NOEL'S ANGEL

7/5


5/2




5

BID ONCE

5/2


7/1




2

HEATIN UP

9/2


7/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

NOEL'S ANGEL

1


7/5

Front-runner

86


92


100.7


72.3


68.3




5

BID ONCE

5


5/2

Front-runner

77


69


81.1


73.3


67.8




2

HEATIN UP

2


9/2

Front-runner

80


67


76.3


75.0


66.5




4

MOONSHINE MOXY

4


8/1

Stalker

70


58


50.2


55.8


45.3




3

BECAUSE

3


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

77


72


78.3


56.3


48.3




6

O'BABE

6


4/1

Alternator/Non-contender

69


74


63.7


57.2


51.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=mnr0712zf.pdf&exp=07/14/2023&pds=MNR_-_07/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=07/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=MNR&SAP=FREEPICS)


Mountaineer Park - Race 4

2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 5 (races 4-8) $.50 Wheel



Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $7,900 • Post: 8:15P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * THREE MILE LIMIT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highe st TrackMaster Power Rating. SOUTHERN SENSE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FULL AHEAD: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KAPHAVATA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



1

THREE MILE LIMIT

7/2


9/2




7

SOUTHERN SENSE

9/5


7/1




4

FULL AHEAD

10/1


7/1




5

KAPHAVATA

9/2


8/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

KAPHAVATA

5


9/2

Front-runner

73


56


84.0


58.4


51.4




4

FULL AHEAD

4


10/1

Front-runner

64


65


75.4


58.0


49.5




1

THREE MILE LIMIT

1


7/2

Front-runner

75


70


75.0


66.2


62.7




6

MANHATTAN WEAVE

6


5/2

Stalker

72


53


85.0


61.2


56.2




7

SOUTHERN SENSE

7


9/5

Alternator/Stalker

68


67


53.0


67.6


61.1




3

KAZTHAROS

3


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

67


65


56.8


51.2


38.7




2

BENNY BOO BOO

2


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

72


63


45.2


51.8


41.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=cby0712zz.htm&exp=07/14/2023&pds=CBY_-_07/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=07/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=CBY&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 76

FOR MN-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 WITHSTANDTHESTORM 3/1




# 2 BURNING LEAVES 5/2




# 7 COLOR ME LEGENDARY 7/2




I like WITHSTANDTHESTORM here. Lately Wade has been scorching which may give the edge to this gelding. Wade has one of the best jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to gamblers +19 percent. I expect a strong performance from this equine whose conditioner has one of the top return on investment percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. BURNING LEAVES - Is difficult not to examine based on speed figures which have been quite good - 71 avg - of late. Berndt has a sound 26 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. COLOR ME LEGENDARY - The speed rating of 76 from his most recent affair looks respectable in here. Looks to have a quite good class edge based on the recent company kept.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=pen0712zm.htm&exp=07/14/2023&pds=PEN_-_07/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=07/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=PEN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:29pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,100 Class Rating: 66

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 WARRIOR'S CAUSE (ML=3/1)
#2 ONE TRUTH (ML=15/1)


WARRIOR'S CAUSE - This horse coming off a solid race in the last 30 days is a contender in my book. This gelding should be in fine form, this far into his form cycle. ONE TRUTH - Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be advantageous. Going on Lasix for the first time. While a well known handicapping angle, it's still quite important to factor in.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 RUNAHOLIC (ML=7/5), #4 BLAME B B (ML=9/2), #3 HARBOR OF GOLD (ML=5/1),

RUNAHOLIC - I don't normally play a morning-line favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. BLAME B B - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple months in a sprint contest to be worth a shot at low odds in a sprint. This thoroughbred just hasn't looked sharp recently. HARBOR OF GOLD - Not a good 'situation' in this affair.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 WARRIOR'S CAUSE to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ind0712zz.htm&exp=07/14/2023&pds=IND_-_07/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=07/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=IND&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 78

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 BETCHA 8/1




# 10 ROYAL TO BE 6/1




# 7 MI ESTRELLA 12/1




BETCHA is the top wager in this race and could score at a price in here. Will most likely come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved promptly to the front end recently. She has to be carefully examined given the very good speed figures. Conditioner has strong win rate (18 percent) at this distance and surface. ROYAL TO BE - Will almost certainly come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved promptly to the lead recently. Could beat this field given the 72 Equibase speed fig garnered in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=haw0712zm.htm&exp=07/14/2023&pds=HAW_-_07/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=07/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=HAW&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 3:51pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 73

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 GHOST BIKE (ML=3/1)
#3 GOLD SMOKE (ML=8/1)


GHOST BIKE - For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 36.6. Very impressive. He has the highest EPS (earnings per start). Check out this horse. GOLD SMOKE - Have to forget about that last grass race. This gelding should do better hitting the dirt in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LARRY THE POET (ML=4/5), #2 ARMAVIR (ML=5/1),

LARRY THE POET - This morning-line choice may be out of form without any recent works. Difficult to invest in at 4/5 odds after the last two showings. Registered a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating in the last race in a Maiden Special race on June 15th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number. ARMAVIR - This horse just hasn't looked fit recently.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #1 GHOST BIKE on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip