Tuesday 8/8/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Presque Isle Downs - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#5 Twelvetwo
Not a whole lot in here by way of finishing form, and this has at least passed a handful of horses in those recent starts. Thinking he'll be plugging along when most of these are done.


#1 Kenji's Empire
I don't think he's coming out of the best race for this level, and I'm not sure how excited you're supposed to be about taking this guy after he got beat more than 10 lengths at 50 cents on the dollar in his first start with similar. Obvious player, but I'll pass.


#3 Change the Hour
He has outrun his odds a couple times so far this year, and his even running style might play well in a race without a whole lot of depth. Could see him sharing again.


Race Summary
Twelvetwo has enough positional pace to avoid chasing from too far back, and he might get the run of the race while tracking a couple potential pace players. He can be tough late if the rail runner doesn't scoot away.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Runaway Harry
Price won't be anything here, but I think he's going to be tough to get around in the late multi-race plays. He has confirmed pace in a spot without much other serious early burn, and his local form has been pretty solid. The one to beat.


#3 Kicks on Sixty Six
He might still be slowly rounding into form with just three starts to his name this season, and he might be in a pretty good spot behind the splits while stretching out today.


#5 Greg's Honor
He's logical enough here, but he has several lengths to turn on the top choice and might again find himself trying to reel that guy in from just a touch too far back based on the race flow. Consider, but I worry the price may still not be fair.


Race Summary
Runaway Harry and Greg's Honor might swap prices from their last meeting, but 'Harry looks tough after easily dispatching that guy last time out and holding what appears to be a pace edge with hese.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#3 She's Rednecker
She's back for a second run off a four-month break, and she's tactical enough to find a really great spot near the pace today. Might get a bit overlooked after beating just two last out, but she has some upside here with a nice trip looming.


#7 Tap the Tittles
She couldn't hang late when trying a mile last out, and I think the tighter trip today will work in her favor as she gets back over a surface on which she's perfect and unpressed from two starts.


#6 Half Birthday
Think she's one of the ones in a fun spot, but I worry she'll have a little company in the early going from a rail runner who may only serve as a pace player. Best lines would do.


Race Summary
She's Rednecker has some appeal at what might be a playable offering, but I think you can make compelling cases for a few of these, including the unlisted #2 Alarm Clock. Think all of these potential players will leave the top choice just a bit forgotten.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Fort Erie - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#3 JARA (2-1)
Dueled wide, held on to join $100k Club, perfectly spotted for repeat as day’s Best Bet.


#2 FRESH DREAMS (5-1)
Ran 1-2-3 at this level this year, offers good value in a short but deep field.


#5 DETERMINED LOVE (8-5)
High turn of early foot, takes class drop, distance the question.


Race Summary
JARA disputed a fast pace in the 4-path and out-kicked the hard hitting Gimbala (12-50, $204k) for a 6F starter allowance victory. The interior fractions were faster than a same day $5,000 claiming race for the boys and a $6,250 nw/4 claimer for fillies and mares – both at 5F. Bet to win and place.


Fort Erie - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#1 ARTIE MY BOY (7-2)
Stands 11/3-2-1 since November, couldn’t reach odds-on winner two back.


#6 BRADY O’BRADY (4-1)
Game pursuit of 7-to-5 winner on the rail, near $100k in Fort Erie earnings.


#3 FAFA FOOEY (5-2)
Loves to win, loves Fort Erie, loves to win the close ones.


Race Summary
ARTIE MY BOY has a win and two seconds behind short-price, wire-to-wire winners this year for higher claiming prices. He faded chasing a fast pace last out, but there’s no reason to think he won’t go well in this spot. Bet to win and place.


Fort Erie - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 LEMONSANDDIAMONDS (4-1)
Chased faves at Delaware, sheds weight, turf the question.


#5 MISS D’S PRIDE (2-1)
Led at top of lane in long turf sprint before deep closer passed by.


#7 MY SONG BABY (8-1)
Kept strong, busy work tab for debut, only to ‘stop’ on main track.


Race Summary
LEMONSANDDIAMONDS got up for third behind the 1-to-5 winner and the second favorite on dirt last out. She worked a :47.1 bullet prior to that race at Delaware Park and gets in light-weighted for her first run on the grass. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger LakesPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=fl0808zf.pdf&exp=08/10/2023&pds=FL_-_08/08/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/08/2023;TRACK_CODE=FL&SAP=FREEPICS)


Finger Lakes - Race 2

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3) * Pick 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 2-3-4)



Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $12,600 • Post: 1:44P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $4,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. STUCK UP is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * STUCK UP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WAR OF THRONES: To day is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. OUR MAN MIKE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed F igure at the distance/surface. DROSEL DIEM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



3

STUCK UP

5/2


5/1




5

WAR OF THRONES

2/1


5/1




6

OUR MAN MIKE

9/2


7/1




1

DROSEL DIEM

5/1


8/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

DROSEL DIEM

1


5/1

Front-runner

74


75


79.0


55.6


48.6




2

MARGARITA SUNRISE

2


15/1

Front-runner

73


70


53.4


45.6


33.6




3

STUCK UP

3


5/2

Stalker

75


66


53.6


65.6


60.1




5

WAR OF THRONES

5


2/1

Trailer

75


71


35.2


69.6


63.6




6

OUR MAN MIKE

6


9/2

Trailer

79


76


6.4


69.0


65.0




4

RUN CASPER RUN

4


7/2

Alternator/Non-contender

79


59


38.8


61.6


54.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ind0808zf.pdf&exp=08/10/2023&pds=IND_-_08/08/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/08/2023;TRACK_CODE=IND&SAP=FREEPICS)


Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 8

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)



Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 64 • Purse: $34,000 • Post: 6:07P


(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MIDNIGHT ANGEL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MIDNIGHT ANGEL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designati on. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.



3

MIDNIGHT ANGEL

4/1


7/5




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




9

PEGGY'S WAY

9


6/1

Front-runner

64


52


50.2


49.3


45.3




3

MIDNIGHT ANGEL

3


4/1

Stalker

83


71


62.0


51.9


49.9




12

CLASSIC JULIA

12


20/1

Trailer

0


0


2.8


40.8


35.3







































Unknown Running Style: LEMORIAN (12/1) [Jockey: De La Cruz Fernando - Trainer: Elliott Michelle L], ROYAL ITCH (30/1) [Jockey: Bermudez Samuel E - Trainer: Davis Joseph D], DEVIL OF PARADIS (15/1) [Jockey: Aragon Rolando - Trainer: Evans II Michael],

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at ThistledownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=tdn0808zz.htm&exp=08/10/2023&pds=TDN_-_08/08/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/08/2023;TRACK_CODE=TDN&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12200 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 8, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 RIVERBOAT GAMBLER 2/1




# 2 DAD'S YANKEES 3/1




# 1 KHALFANI 10/1




RIVERBOAT GAMBLER looks solid to best this field. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 83 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this group of horses in this race. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me think about this gelding. Should definitely be carefully examined in here if only for the formidable speed rating earned in the last affair. DAD'S YANKEES - Looks very good against this group of horses and ought to be one of the leaders.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort EriePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=fe0808zz.htm&exp=08/10/2023&pds=FE_-_08/08/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/08/2023;TRACK_CODE=FE&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 7.0f on the Turf. Purse: $21600 Class Rating: 65

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. *PLUS UP TO $4,725 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 SUPER FOLLOW 8/1




# 2 HOLIDAY WITH AMY 3/1




# 4 SILENT CREEK 10/1




SUPER FOLLOW looks solid to best this group of horses in this race particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. HOLIDAY WITH AMY - Shows strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. SILENT CREEK - Earnings per start in turf sprint races is formidable for this pony. With a reliable 60 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=pid0808zm.htm&exp=08/10/2023&pds=PID_-_08/08/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/08/2023;TRACK_CODE=PID&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 3:54pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 BARRELHOUSE (ML=5/2)


BARRELHOUSE - Trainer McCarthy moves this horse to a lower class rank to face a less competitive field. Look for a sharp race racing against these lower level horses.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GURT'S WARRIOR (ML=7/2), #5 GEMINI MOON (ML=4/1), #2 BLUE COSMO (ML=9/2),

GURT'S WARRIOR - The finish position of fifth in the last affair shows me that this horse may be going off form. Finished fifth in his most recent effort with a run-of-the-mill speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field. GEMINI MOON - Would have to get better off that fifth place finish last time to make an impact here. Speed figs of 85/63/55 are going the wrong way. This steed ran a common speed figure last race out. He shouldn't improve and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that number. BLUE COSMO - Don't think that this gelding has value at 9/2 in today's event.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #7 BARRELHOUSE on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=fan0808zm.htm&exp=08/10/2023&pds=FAN_-_08/08/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/08/2023;TRACK_CODE=FAN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #4 - Post: 2:24pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 CAMPAIGN SPY (ML=5/2)
#3 IT'S BELLAMY TIME (ML=4/1)


CAMPAIGN SPY - This gelding should get an idyllic trip in this spot. He looks like the only 'stalker' in this clash. This rider and trainer have a favorable ROI when they partner up. Trainer Scalcione moves this one down in class ranks to face a weaker level today. Look for a strong race racing against these lower level horses. Scalcione brings him back again. I propose you stay with this hot gelding. IT'S BELLAMY TIME - Using this jockey/handler combination is a good choice.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SHOBIZ STAR (ML=2/1), #1 SAFE (ML=3/1), #5 PRINCE OF MAYHEM (ML=7/2),

SHOBIZ STAR - This chalk horse ran on Jul 4th and hasn't had a work since. The effort in the last race on July 4th probably won't hold up against stronger opponents when they turn for home. Improbable that the speed rating he registered on July 4th will be good enough in this race. SAFE - This low class level animal may have a tough time rebounding off of two stiff stretch drives. This gelding is always close, but just doesn't win. Tough to bet on him on the win end. PRINCE OF MAYHEM - This horse hasn't shown much life in the last pair of affairs.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CAMPAIGN SPY - Put a prime bet on this gelding. At the top in earnings per start and has a lot more to offer as well.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 CAMPAIGN SPY to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass