Friday 8/11/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/11/23 August 11, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Eligio; 5-Ready to Storm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Eligio tipped his hand when missing by a nose in a $50,000 maiden claimer for juveniles at Los Alamitos (was five lengths clear of the rest) and today is raised to the $100,000 level for protection, though the class hike is artificial because this field is no tougher than the race he just finished second in. Three easy drills over the Del Mar main track since raced should have the son of Congrats ready to graduate, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower there won’t be much wagering value available. Among the newcomers, Ready to Storm looks the best and should be competitive at this level. The Doug O’Neill-trained son of City of Light began his early training at Monmouth Park but looked decent in a pair of local gate drills and should be fit enough despite the brief work tab.

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RACE 2: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Mac’s Time; 4-Chicknfingerfriday.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Mac’s Time was claimed for $30,000 at Churchill Downs in May and today returns on the class drop to $20,000 for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, not normally a healthy pattern but one that this trainer employs quite often, especially when there is ship and win money involved. With a clear edge in the speed figure department, the son of Not This Time should beat this field, though there’s always a question of condition with winning class droppers that are coming off a 10 week layoff. Chicknfingerfriday has a legitimate look if our top pick isn’t right. The Steve Knapp-trained colt remains above his claim level after finishing a respectable third in an allowance optional claimer at Los Alamitos last month. He’s light in the speed figure department but is realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-3) affair.

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RACE 3: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Double Jab
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Northern California invader Double Jab has two very good races on his resume, the second of which earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 78, which was 21 points better than his debut. In the frame in the both starts, the Andy Mathis-trained gelding moves from all-weather to grass and, as a son of Vronsky shouldn’t at all be inconvenienced by the switch in surface. From the rail in this state-bred maiden five furlong dash, he should be within range throughout and have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. At 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 4: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Super Chief
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 12-In Vronsky Style; 8-Mystic Flyer.

Forecast: Super Chief won his debut in good style with a strong figure a year ago May but then disappeared. He returned in a first level allowance sprint last April but had the misfortune of catching the razor sharp and vastly improved Moose Mitchell and proved no match, winding up second but beaten nine lengths while finishing just in front of a next out winner. There are no Moose in this race, so we’re expecting the lightly raced 5-year-old to regain his winning form in this California-bred main track sprint. A strong recent gate drill in :59 3/5 should have him right on edge, and at 6-1 on the morning line (doubt you’ll get it) he offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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RACE 5: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Miranda
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Runamileinmyshoes; 10-Prancingthruparis

Forecast: The first timer Mirinda is miles the best of this state-bred maiden juvenile fillies field but she’s stuck on the also-eligible list and needs to draw in. If she is forced to remain in the barn, put her in your hip pocket for next time. The daughter of Mtole has done everything asked in the morning and appears blessed with intense speed. While we’ve seen the Gary Mandella-trained filly on video, we have not been able to evaluate Runamileinmyshoes other than what appears on paper. The work tab should have her plenty fit and if she leave cleanly from the rail the daughter of Street Boss seems certain to be a major factor throughout. Additionally, the trainer jockey team of Jeff Mullins and Juan Gonzalez is lethal. Prancingthruparis is another that has escaped the cameraman and first timers from the Peter Eurton barn often need a race, but she’s bred for grass and shows a solid work tab, so in an unclassified field comprised mostly of newcomers we’ll toss her in.

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RACE 6: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Refocus; 8-Wild Jewels
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Mici’s Express.

Forecast: Refocus was a blazing gate-to-wire debut winner at Santa Anita in May but then might have been wheeled back too quickly when failing to show similar zip in the Fasig Tipton Futurity less than a month later, eventually winding up a distant third. He’s had a couple of months off to charge his batteries and has looked sharp and eager in recent drills to indicate he’s ready to bounce back. The Doug O’Neill-trained son of Pavel must break sharply from the rail to avoid trouble but if he does he could easily be the quickest in the field. Wild Jewels is a Pleasanton invader with two strong outings behind him, most recently a runner-up effort in a listed stakes sprint that earned a solid figure. He’s comfortably drawn outside and may be most effective if employing stalk and pounce tactics.

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RACE 7: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Inner Beauty; 8-Corporal Violette; 6-Golden Temper
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep, but the best suggestion is to include as many as your budget allows in rolling exotic play. Inner Beauty is guaranteed a ground saving trip from her preferred rail draw and has speed figures that are better than par for this level. She’s probably most effective in the role as the controlling speed, which is possible given the projected race shape, is exiting a pair of sprints, has been freshened for almost three months, and shows a healthy series of recent workouts. Corporal Violette and Golden Temper are both dropping into a seller for the first time while trying to find their proper level. Both have shown enough against tougher to expect improvement against this group.

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RACE 8: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-L L L Cool; 4-Len’s Luck
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Montana; 10-American Empire.

Forecast: Bottom rung maiden claimers meet over a mile in the finale. L L L Cool was beaten a head in a similar event at Los Alamitos last month when finishing five lengths clear of the rest while earning a career top speed figure. A repeat of that race should be good enough against this bunch. Len’s Luck has hit the board in four of six starts and should at least get a piece of it again today.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/11/23 August 11, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Moore’s Law
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Mount Craig.

Forecast: With rising speed figures in each of his three career outings, Moore’s Law looks ready to graduate in this nine furlong main track maiden affair for older horses. The son of Good Magic picked up the pieces to be a distant runner-up in a similar affair last month in a hot race for the level and nothing much more will be needed today. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and likely will go lower as a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Missing Fortune; 4-Tosconova Beauty
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Missing Fortune is a razor sharp Finger Lakes shipper moving into the first level allowance ranks after winning a lesser affair by seven easy lengths with a career top speed figure last month. In the frame in seven of eight career starts, the daughter of Mission Impazible projects to enjoy a soft pace stalking/pressing trip from her favorable outside draw, and if she duplicates her most recent performance she can handle this task at 4-1 on the morning line. Tosconova Beauty is the one to fear most. A winner of six of 13 career starts, several of which were earned at Finger Lakes, she was disappointing in her last pair but is better than her 8-1 morning line gives her credit for.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Rocky Sky
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Rocky Sky launches a comeback for a barn that has superb stats with layoff runners (29%) and this Grade-3 winner has trained sharply in recent weeks to be fit and ready. This third level allowance race should be well within her capabilities, so at 5/2 on the morning line the Chad Brown-trained filly offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Grannys Connection
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Grannys Connection got nailed on the line when missing as the favorite in a similar state bred stakes sprint at Belmont Park in late June but should make amends today in this year’s renewal of the Union Avenue Handicap for older fillies and mares. The Thomas Morley-trained filly clearly should have the lead to herself and given that trip it’s hard to imagine anything catching her. Listed as the 6/5 morning line choice, the daughter of Connect won’t offer any wagering value but can be used as a short-priced rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Gal in a Rush; 2-Bowl of Cherries; 6-Breeze Easy.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Gal in a Rush seems fairly solid in this abbreviated grass dash for second level allowance fillies and mares, having beaten a lesser field in clever fashion at Belmont Park last month while earning a career top speed figure. This trip might be a bit sharp for her, but with good racing luck and little help up front the Christophe Clement-trained filly may be able to tag the leaders close home. Bowl of Cherries, first or second in her last four starts, should fire another big shot again today. She projects to settle right behind leaders and then have every chance from the quarter pole to the wire. Breeze Easy seems to lack a winning punch (2-for-17) but usually gets a piece of it and is right there with the rest of these on pure numbers.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Rotknee
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Colonel Bowman.

Forecast: Rotknee has really gotten good of late and a repeat of either of his last two starts should be more than good enough to extend his winning streak to three. Most recently, the son of Runhappy crushed a second level allowance field at Belmont Park by almost five lengths while registering a career top triple digit Beyer speed figure, one that makes him likely to extend his winning streak to three despite the class hike to the three-other-than level. Fast enough from his outside draw to make the lead but handy enough to employ stalk and pounce tactics if the race flow dictates, the Michael Maker-trained colt is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and will be playable in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics if you can get close to that price.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Vettriano; 8-Catalina Crush
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Vettriano breezed a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds in the Timonium 2-year-old-in-training sale in May and looked okay, though he failed to change leads while being ridden through the lane. The local work tab looks fairly decent for trainer Chad Brown, so he must be considered a contender, but there is another in here that deserve close consideration as well. Catalina Crush displayed ability breezing a furlong in 10 seconds at the OBS March sale and as a son of Catalina Cruiser has the pedigree to win early. He’s from a high percentage outfit and had an easy solo gate drill last week after arriving from Kentucky. You have to use him somewhere.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:08 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-General Jim; 1-More Than Looks; 2-Carl Spackler
Backups/Savers/Underneath:

Forecast: Let’s go with a bit of a price in this highly contentious renewal of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes-G2 for 3-year-olds. General Jim returns to grass (he won over this course last year) and overall has excellent form on turf. Though he nowhere to be found in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 at Belmont Park last time out, the son of Into Mischief previously won the Pat Day Mile-G2 at Churchill Downs with a triple digit Beyer speed figure, so on his best day Shug’s colt can be very good. Regular pilot Luis Saez knows him well, and in a race that projects to have moderate early splits he could find himself in an ideal stalking position. More Than Looks has rapidly improving form, and this son of More Than Ready could easily be this good with another forward move. He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, and with some help up front he could produce a dangerous late kick. Carl Spackler was disappointing when unplaced in the American Turf S.-G2 at Churchill Downs. Perhaps he didn’t care for the course, because based on highly rated maiden score at Gulfstream Park he should have been far more competitive. He deserves a chance to bounce back, so we’ll include him on our ticket.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Americanrevolution
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Americanrevolution is even money on the morning line, and if he returns as well as he left the high class New York-bred horse will carry his high weight of 126 lbs. to victory in this year’s edition of the Evan Shipman Handicap. A Grade-1 winner of the Cigar Mile in 2021 and most recently an excellent second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 here last September, the son of Constitution has won fresh in the past and shows a work tab that should have him fit enough for this main track, state-bred mile affair. Regular pilot Luis Saez rides for Todd Pletcher, and from his rail post he should be able to settle into the second flight, ground-saving trip and then take control when ready.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Michele M.; 10-Saratoga Gaze; 1-Magniloquent; 6-Quick Power Nap.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: This grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $35,000 claiming fillies and mares is borderline inscrutable. Use as many as you can afford to in your rolling exotic play. Michele M. drops into a seller for the first turn, turns back in trip, adds blinkers for the first time, and earned a speed figure two runs back that makes her highly competitive under these conditions. The Clement-Rosario trainer/jockey combo always must be respected, so let’s go with this sophomore daughter of West Coast on top. Saratoga Gaze, third in her last pair, will enjoy clear sailing outside, and with patient handling she can settle in the second flight and then produce a dangerous late kick. Magniloquent represents inside speed and if she can shake loose early she could take her rivals a long way. Quick Power Nap, freshened since early July, has finished in the frame in all three prior outings over the Saratoga turf course figures to be running on strongly through the lane.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Sweetest Prince; 3-Ghostly Girl
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Sweetest Princess drops into a claimer for the first time and may have found her friends. Stakes-placed in New York bred company earlier in the year, the George Weaver-trained sophomore has been chasing tougher all year long without registering a win, but she has numbers that fit very nicely at this level, so we’re expecting the daughter of Cairo Prince to snap to life. “Win rider” Javier Castellano returns, so let’s put her on top at 7/2 on the morning line. Ghostly Girl is another dropping to her lowest level ever and should go better against this group. The Kentucky invader has speed figures that are competitive but is unproven on grass.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Dan Patch Late Pick 4 Analysis August 11, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
This is the night for Hoosier Park's signature race the Dan Patch Stakes which has a $310,000 purse. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 12. The sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 12 (10:06 PM EST)

4-BB Lucky Boy (8-1)-Was driven hard into a 53.3 opening half and tonight David Miller takes the lines. Has one good move and if used at the right time it could lead to a picture at a solid price.
5-Ultra Image (5/2)-Beat this kind in last utilizing a 53.1 second half to roll by down the lane. Gets post relief and might double up at a short price.
6-Western Era (7/2)-Took advantage of a very hot pace and came the back half in 53.4 to beat a few of these last week. Could get a better seat off the gate in the 2nd start in town and is another who might win right back.

Race 13-Dan Patch Stakes (10:40 PM EST)

6-Linedrive Hanover (9/2)-The question is will this speedy son of Betting Line race well on the Hoosier Park surface. If so, he should be a main player. There are some tough foes but there isn't a Bull Dog Hanover to battle. If the Tony Beaton entry brings his A-game, he should be on the lead around the first turn and could be difficult to collar.
8-Little Rocket Man (7/2)-Local hero likes to sweep by down the lane and John DeLong should be sitting near the top of the stack. Will probably need his best race of the year to win but the pace could be hot and that shouldn't hurt chances.
10-Charlie May (3-1)-Brett Miller does a great job of putting Charlie in striking range and the post draws are often not great. Will need to find a way to stay close enough to the leaders and with honest fractions the 5-year-old should be in the mix at the wire.

Race 14 (11:05 PM EST)

2-Six Again (8-1)-Usually isn't 10 lengths back at the first call and should get a close-up seat with a better post draw this week. Looking for De Long to provide an aggressive steer in the 2nd start on Lasix and should offer a nice price.
4-Henry The Horse (5/2)-Took control on 7-28 and didn't look back in an efficient win. Program chalk usually gives an honest effort and could reward backers again with a smooth trip.

Race 15 (11:30 PM EST)

8-KJ Owen (7/2)-This Tyler George veteran makes its 3rd start off the bench and performed well in his previous 2 races. Has put in a couple of flat lines, this might be go-time and may have met a beatable field.
10-Rock King Deo (5-1)-Got sucked around in last and beat the one above with a ground saving trip. Could follow #1 when the wings fold, get a good close-up seat and trip out for another picture.

0.50 Late Pick 4

4,5,6/6,8,10/2,4/8,10
Total bet=$18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

$1,000,000 GRADE 1 ARLINGTON MILLION AT COLONIAL DOWNS August 11, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
The Arlington Million changes venues to Colonial Downs this Saturday as the historic American turf race anchors a card that also includes the Secretariat Stakes and Beverly D., familiar sidekicks from their days in Chicago. Colonial will be the fourth backdrop for the Million, which previously included Arlington, Woodbine (following the fire at Arlington) and Churchill Downs last year.

The mile and one-quarter Arlington Million attracted 11 entrants, 4 of them existing millionaires, including SANTIN. Last year's winner will try to become the first back-to-back winner in this race's history and join the legendary John Henry as the only two-time Million champs.

​Field Depth:
ATONE, ROCKEMPEROR, ADHAMO and SANTIN are the Grade 1 winners in the lineup. SET PIECE and MASTER PIECE have victories at the Grade 2 level. CATNIP and NEVER EXLPAIN are Grade 3 winners, the former also Grade 1-placed. This field is very balanced in terms of class.

Pace:
STRONG QUALITY has made the lead at some point in 7 of his last 8 starts and is most likely to set the tone. Those in closest pursuit figure to be ATONE, CATIP and WIN FOR THE MONEY, though the latter is a Mark Casse stablemate of STRONG QUALITY and may not be sent into the fight too soon. This looks like an average pace for 10 furlongs on turf and no running style should be greatly compromised by the set-up.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-STRONG TIDE: Grade 1-placed performer has been flat late in his recent races and picks up 5-6 pounds off his last several bids. Colonial all-time leading jockey Horacio Karamanos aboard helps navigate the local course for the Kentucky shipper.

2-NEVER EXPLAIN: Appears best at trips a bit shorter than the Million, which makes sense as his damsire (stamina side) is miler Forestry. He's in career-best form off his last 5 starts at 4 different venues. He'll fire, but may run out of oomph late.

3-SET PIECE: Deep closer gives himself a lot to do and was beaten favorite in this race last year when at Churchill Downs. Another who may be a better closer in shorter trips than this, and at age 7 has been solid this year, but slightly off his prior form. Jockey Florent Geroux won the 2015 Arlington Million on The Pizza Man.

4-ATONE: Tempo may be key with this Mike Maker trainee. He's run his best races when the opening splits are solid, 47s, vs. those that dawdle in the 49s. He wants to get into the race, get after it, and keep punching, like he did in the Pegasus World Cup Turf this winter at Gulfstream. This tempo sets up decently for him and aggressive early rider Kendrick Carmouche gets a great post to work with. Dangerous.

5-ROCKEMPEROR: Seven-year-old has won just 1 of his last 8 starts and has finished out of the money in those 7 losses. While a true distance horse and Grade 1-proven, the connections here of John Velazquez and Chad Brown are a rare pairing, but figure to be more popular at the windows that this horse's form deserves. Likely underlay at 12-1 or less.

6-MASTER PIECE: Trainer Rick Dutrow turned Saffie Joseph Jr. transfer White Abarrio into the Grade 1 Whitney winner last Saturday at Saratoga and it will be no surprise if he does it with this 7-year-old again at Colonial. MASTER PIECE also will be second-time Dutrow like White Abarrio, and notice this horse's best performance, winning the Eddie Read at Del Mar last year around this time, was on a similar form cycle. Major threat.

7-STRONG QUALITY: Speedster is 0-for-4 at races 9 furlongs or longer and will pick up 5 pounds off his recent efforts. Unproven at the class level, he'll lead them for a good deal before giving way.

8-CATNIP: No excuse second in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth last time out as the 6-5 favorite. Trainer Mike Stidham has had success at Colonial over the years, and this colt won here in maiden company last summer before tiring in the Virginia Derby. He's got more foundation this time for the 10-furlong return to Colonial. He is back on 3 weeks rest and this will be his fifth race in a row since late April, a heavy toll by today's standards.

9-ADHAMO: The 2022 Grade 1 United Nations winner has not started in 9 months and you'd think that a 10-furlong trip off that break would be a very tall task. But trainer Chad Brown defies conventional handicapping thought processes more often than not, and he attracts ace turf pilot Flavien Prat. Excellent running style keeps him a few lengths back and gives him every chance to fire. Brown has won the Million a record 4 times, so beware.

10-WIN FOR THE MONEY: Synthetic surface performer has crossed the wire first in both turf attempts (DQ'd from the win 2 starts back), but has never faced stakes competition on grass. Damside pedigree suggests the mile and one-quarter will stretch him a bit far, and from an outside draw and step up in class, I'll pass.

11-SANTIN: Defending Arlington Million winner was in career form last year and benefitted from a Churchill course that was coming apart at the seems and flattered his running style. He's 6: 0-0-0 since winning this race a year ago and showing no visible signs of snapping out of it, though his last 2 races on dirt were curious maneuvers that perhaps you can forgive.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
No locks in this space, but ATONE should get a dynamite trip and the narrow call for most trusted. But at 7-2 favoritism in the morning line, there's not a lot of value there in the win pool.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
MASTER PIECE likely is sitting on a big race at 12-1 morning line and would be the play even at half that price.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win MASTER PIECE. $10 exacta key-box MASTER PIECE with ATONE and ADHAMO ($40).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Pick 4 Ticket | Friday, Aug. 11 August 11, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
HORSESHOE INDIANAPOLIS PICK 4
Friday, Aug. 11

The road to the Horseshoe Indianapolis Late Pick 4 this Friday, Aug. 11 will go through a pair of one-mile turf allowances that drew full fields of 12. The challenging sequence also features an allowance sprint and MSW mile on the main track for Indiana breds. Here’s a closer look and a suggested $36 ticket:

IND 5th race (4:10 EST) -- RAFAELA rallied 4-wide, then pressed the pace 4-wide to finish second in her first two starts over the track. She looks like the one to beat but could have distance limitations. Her sire’s offspring are 1-for-41 in dirt routes and her dam’s two victories were sprinting. J’S NAUGHTY KITTEN gave way while chasing RAFAELA in the 4-path from post 11, but she has the right running style in this speed-laden field and wears blinkers for the first time. CLASSIC KITTEN shows steady gate works in the last month and is the first 2-year-old since 2019 to debut going a route of ground for high-percentage trainer Genaro Garcia. The daughter of Grade III-winning router and millionaire Charming Kitten need not be much to contend.

IND 6th race (4:40 EST) -- MAINTAINER raced close to a solid pace and gave way in a double-key, 1-1/16-mile turf allowance dominated by deep closers. He faded in a 1-1/8-mile marathon at Keeneland two back that produced one winner, two runners-up and six next-out allowance runners that posted 81-plus Beyers. He is eligible for an entry-level allowance but is today’s Pick 4 solo play nonetheless.

IND 7th race (5:10 EST) -- BARN STORMER widened his lead in the final eighth of a confidence-building win in a weak field. But he has some upside on the class hike, facing the likes of On the Raydar (11/3-2-4, $98k) and Follow The Money (12/2-4-0, $76k) in MSW company last year, hailing from a 21 percent ‘repeat’ barn and breezing 4F in :47.2 since his last start. OH SO SOCIAL set comparable middle fractions to a same-day stakes sprint when he held on to win two starts back. Then he battled inside a 4-way duel in the slop and tired to finish fifth – between three next-out winners. DOSSIER won geared down on fast and sloppy tracks and seeks his first allowance victory off similar rest.

IND 8th race (5:40 EST) -- CORONA GRANDE finished in the money behind three-time stakes winner King Ice (4-8, $305k) recently and is strictly the one to beat if he handles the switch to turf. If he doesn’t, it’s anybody’s race in the finale, so I’ll go eight deep on the ticket.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
IND 5th Race: 3, 4, 6
IND 6th Race: 6
IND 7th Race: 2, 3, 4
IND 8th Race: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11
Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles TownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ct0811zf.pdf&exp=08/13/2023&pds=CT_-_08/11/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/11/2023;TRACK_CODE=CT&SAP=FREEPICS)


Charles Town - Race 4

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 4-5) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)



Maiden Special • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 54 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 8:32P


FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Trailer. WYSOQUIET is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SOUL CATCHER: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has run a Go od Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WYSOQUIET: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has a TrackMaste r "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



2

SOUL CATCHER

5/2


7/2




6

WYSOQUIET

9/2


7/2




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




10

GREATEST NOTION

10


15/1

Alternator/Front-runner

0


0


42.3


28.3


21.3




5

CHRISTOPHER'SHEART

5


7/2

Stalker

0


0


37.9


34.1


29.1




3

DIRECT PROOF

3


30/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


16.3


23.5


14.5




2

SOUL CATCHER

2


5/2

Trailer

64


41


0.0


38.9


33.4




6

WYSOQUIET

6


9/2

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


44.1


42.6


39.1




7

CANDY FOR JUBA

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


35.6


21.6


11.1







































Unknown Running Style: GRANDY (8/1) [Jockey: Ho Wesley - Trainer: Contreras Javier], YACHTSMEN (5/1) [Jockey: Mendez Marshall - Trainer: Runco Jeff C], ALEXANDER GRADY (10/1) [Jockey: Nunez Juan Mauricio - Trainer: Contreras Javier], TAKE YOUR TIME (

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Saratoga - Race 1

Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 1 &2, Pick 3 ($1) (1-3) Early Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5)



Maiden Special • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $136,500 • Post: 1:10P


(PURSE $105,000 FOR NON-NYB) (UP TO $23,751 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. HERO'S MEDAL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HERO'S MEDAL: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MOORE'S LAW: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MOUNT CRAIG: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



3

HERO'S MEDAL

3/1


3/1




4

MOORE'S LAW

8/5


5/1




1

MOUNT CRAIG

5/2


5/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

HERO'S MEDAL

3


3/1

Front-runner

93


82


67.9


73.7


67.7




1

MOUNT CRAIG

1


5/2

Trailer

95


82


53.8


83.0


77.0




4

MOORE'S LAW

4


8/5

Trailer

94


84


44.7


80.2


78.2




2

GAME KEEPER

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


70.6


72.3


63.8




6

BRAGGADOCIOUS

6


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

89


81


59.6


66.8


59.3




5

BREES

5


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


54.0


54.0


42.5

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https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:41pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 UNCAPTURED DOVE (ML=6/1)
#1 RASTANI (ML=5/1)
#7 SWEET TEMPTATION (ML=9/2)


UNCAPTURED DOVE - This horse could be tough this time, especially since Reyes rode last out and now should be better acquainted with this one. Speed is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. This filly is in fine condition, having run a nice race on Jul 21st, finishing third. This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Pletcher. Better watch out for this angle. RASTANI - Morelos comes to saddle up after getting to know the filly in the last race. This filly surprised everybody by finishing third July 9th. Lasix can take some getting used to, especially for a filly. They usually hit stride the second time using it, like we have with this horse. SWEET TEMPTATION - With no PPs, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Nicks has a +75 pct ROI rate with 1st timers. This first timer has been getting primed in the morning at Gulfstream Park, a good sign. I always like to see a horse getting Lasix for the first time. Nicks adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DIVINE (ML=5/2), #4 MILLENNIUM PARK (ML=7/2), #5 ARZAG (ML=4/1),

DIVINE - Probably won't make much of an impression in today's event. MILLENNIUM PARK - This filly hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance events. Tough to play her in this event. ARZAG - Doesn't look to be in a cozy circumstance this time out.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #3 UNCAPTURED DOVE on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [1,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,7] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park All Turf Pick 3PURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=eqf0811zz.htm&exp=08/13/2023&pds=EQF_-_08/11/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/11/2023;TRACK_CODE=EQF&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $78000 Class Rating: 96

ELP - R8 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERSOF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 AALIYAH EZRI 6/1




# 7 SHE'S GONE 6/1




# 3 FLASHY GEM 6/5




AALIYAH EZRI figures to be the bet in here. Very strong selection to take this race going in a turf route. Must be given a shot in here if only for the formidable speed figure posted in the last contest. SHE'S GONE - Garcia has a winning percentage of 18 over the last month. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses in this race - worth a look. FLASHY GEM - Look for a decent pace improvement from this equine who enters on Lasix today. Put up a very strong speed rating last time out.

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Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $54500 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $23,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 J P HELLISH 7/2




# 5 FULL EXTREME 5/2




# 2 EMBRACE MY UNCLE 8/1




J P HELLISH looks to be a very good contender. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. Don't overlook this gelding in your propositions - very dangerous with Civaci aboard. FULL EXTREME - Appears to have a very good class edge based on the most recent company kept. He ought to be given a chance given the decent speed numbers. EMBRACE MY UNCLE - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 88 - of his last effort. Is a solid contender based on figs recorded lately under today's conditions.

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Ellis Park - Race #1 - Post: 11:45am - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 BAYTOWN PARFAIT (ML=8/1)
#2 ACACIO (ML=9/5)


BAYTOWN PARFAIT - You have to like this race horse changing from dirt to turf for the first time. He finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on June 4th. A sign he may take to turf. Great chance for this racer. Solid late speed and should have good position. That 68 fig this colt registered in his last race tells me he's a key player in today's event. The mount with the top average class rating in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill. ACACIO - A good sign that Thomas tries blinks today and this horse in his drill started from the gate. Should improve. Horses out of the barn of Thomas have been strong on the turf. Should do well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MIDNIGHT TIL DAWN (ML=3/1), #3 MASTER SWITCH (ML=9/2), #1 HAWKS CREEK (ML=6/1),

MIDNIGHT TIL DAWN - This horse will likely be at the back of the pack as this field crosses the wire. MASTER SWITCH - Would have to get better off that fifth place finish last out to make an impact here. Disappointing speed rating last time out at Ellis Park at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this steed will improve too much in today's event. HAWKS CREEK - Trying to beat this horse this time around at the value of 6/1.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BAYTOWN PARFAIT - The event on Jun 4th had a class rating of 84 while today's class rating is 61. I got to bet this one on such a big drop.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #6 BAYTOWN PARFAIT to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Hotlist - August 11
Aug. 10, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/8 mi] – (1) Mount Craig got bumped and stumbled at the start of his last start which was in the same race as the second choice, had to steady later, and still managed to finish third.4) Moore’s Law made his 3-year-old debut at Saratoga last month and rallied from last in a field of seven to finish second for Chad Brown and had a smoother trip than the top choice. (3) Hero’s Medal set the pace in that same race, bumped with Mount Craig while fading in the stretch and was disqualified and placed sixth. (6) Braggadocious gets a trainer change to Mark Hennig whose barn is hot at Saratoga this summer.
2nd race [NY, Alw 95000 N1X, 7F] – (2) Timely Conquest (A) was a rare debut winner for Mark Hennig whose barn has now won four races at the current meeting. (7) Big Bean Christine will return to NY-bred competition after winning a starter allowance with a career high speed figure. (1) Chasing Daylight had a second and a third in open company claimers in her most recent starts. (3) Big Hazel broke her maiden going a mile at Belmont Park in June with a stalking trip.
5th race [OC 62k/N2X, 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Hotlist - August 11
Aug. 10, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (2) Eligio missed by a nose in his debut and can make amends here. (5) Ready to Storm put in a fast gate work for this. (6) Ace of Clubs was third in his debut and cannot be ignored. (7) Bowtie Boys is worth a look in his debut. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5. Exactas: 2-5 over 6-7 and 6-7 over 2-5.
3rd race – (3) Grand Tiger gets back on turf and gets the nod in this field. (6) Ghostly Act looks like the one to fear. (1) Double Jab will benefit from a rail trip. (8) Black as My Heart can take a step forward in his second start. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-8. Doubles: 1-3-6-8 with 1-5-6-12.
4th race – (12) In Vronsky Style has been first or second in his last three starts and merits top billing here. (1) Windribbon looks like a contender on his best try. (5) What an Idea has a nice turn of speed and could control the pace. (6) Lemon Sushi could be a factor if there’s no rust from a nine-month layoff. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-12.
6th race – (1) Refocus was third in an open stakes and should be hard to beat back in with Cal-breds. (5) Smokem Ez was an impressive debut winner and looks like the key rival. (3) Last Call London can rebound nicely back with state-breds. (8) Wild Jewels could work out a nice stalking trip from the outside post. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-8.
8th race – (6) L L L Cool missed by a head last time and gets the job done here. (3) Commissioner H could perk up on dirt and in a claimer. (8) Rippin’ Ruis switches to a hot barn. (5) Ice Storm had a tough trip and could heat up here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-6-8.