Saturday 8/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[ConleyPicks]

Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY AM, 8/12:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday AM ET is with Under the Total in the match between Colombia and England in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. Colombia (W3-D0-L1) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with a 1-0 victory against Jamaica on Monday. Las Chicas Ponderosas have only allowed four goals in their two matches. Three of their four matches have seen two combined goals or less scored. England (W3-D1-L0) reached the Quarterfinals with their victory via penalty kicks after their scoreless match with Nigeria on Monday. The Lionesses have not allowed a goal from open play in their four matches with the one goal they allowed being a penalty kick in their match against China. Three of their four matches have not had more than one combined goal scored. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Arsenal-2 -120 over Nottingham Forest (7:30 a.m. EST, Saturday August 12) Arsenal got off to a hot start last season before trailing off a bit towards the end but we think this is a very strong side and they have a great chance for another hot start to the new season. They get a great first matchup here at home vs. Nottingham, and this should be a very one-sided match. We rarely release a play above -150, but there is good value here as we had this one handicapped well over -200 when laying the goal and a half. The last two times these sides saw each other here were a pair of 5-0 beat downs. We see another lopsided result here. Nottingham comes to play when these sides meet at their home, but home pitch for Arsenal will be too much to handle and this one is likely a 3-goal or more win for the home side.

[ConleyPicks]

Martin Griffiths

Play on: Arsenal -2 -115 at Mirage
It's hard to envision any outcome other than an Arsenal victory at the Emirates on Saturday.

The Gunners have displayed a solid performance during their pre-season preparations, indicating their readiness for the upcoming season. With significant improvements to their squad through astute signings, they appear stronger compared to the previous campaign when they came close to challenging eventual champions Man City.

With City securing a victory on Friday evening, this should serve as an extra incentive for Arsenal's players to not only secure a win but to do so convincingly in front of their home crowd. Falling behind City after just one game is not a scenario they would want to face.

While Forest managed to avoid relegation last season, their away record was notably poor. There's little reason to believe that this season will yield better results for them, especially considering their past struggles on the road. It's worth noting that Arsenal triumphed 5-0 in this same fixture last season. To be straightforward, a similar scoreline today would hardly come as a surprise.

Although the spread might be quite high, Arsenal possesses the necessary quality to cover it. A comprehensive victory over Forest to kick off their campaign is well within their capabilities.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Northampton Town +275 at BetVegas

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Rickenbach

Rotation #206954: Romania Liga 1 Saturday Free Pick UNDER 2 -125 in Otelul Galati vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:30 AM ET - All 4 matches involving Galati have totaled 2 or less goals. Though Galati continues to give strong efforts, they have scored only 2 goals in 4 matches. As for Universitatea Cluj, they have been involved in one high-scoring battle but have scored a total of only 2 goals in their other 3 matches. I am looking for a 1-0 type of defensive battle here. Free Pick UNDER 2 -125 in Otelul Galati

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Play: Blue Jays -115 at Mirage
Go to the head of the class if you know that Chris Bassitt leads Toronto in wins with 11. Bassitt gets the home start here facing lefty Justin Steele.

Steele has become a very good pitcher in his third season. However, he's coming off a season-high 110 pitches in his last start. He has already exceeded the most innings he has pitched in a season. So regression could be coming.

The Blue Jays are 14-9 against southpaws. They have the third-highest on base percentage versus left-handers and fifth-highest batting average.

Bassitt is not the best pitcher on the Blue Jays. But he is solid. He's at his best when pitching at home, too, with a 6-2 record and 2.56 ERA. Bassitt has permitted two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts.

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Ravens-4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Orioles+144

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Minnesota w/Lopez +105 over Philadelphia

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U
Saturday Free Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars/Dallas Cowboys over 37 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports
Saturday's Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers -155

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play
Indianapolis -3' NFL

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Week 1 of Pre-Season - Take the NY Jets +3.5!


Played & Documented!

2023-24 Freeplay Record - 0-1

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hollywood Anthony
Your Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take Chicago Cubs +110

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, August 12, 2023

NFL Preseason

Take: 128. Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (4 PT / 7 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Roz Wins
ROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, AUGUST 12, 2023

NFLX

124. Panthers -3.5 (1 PT / 4 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: the Washington Nationals -125 over Oakland

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday :Take PHILADELPHIA/BALTIMORE OVER the total of 35.5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: NY JETS/CAROLINA OVER the total of 37.5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Chris Tudor
SPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SATURDAY!



NFL LA Rams/LA Chargers OVER the total of 33.5 pts

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: LA CHARGERS/LA RAMS OVER the total of 33

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic Sports
Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Boston Red Sox -190

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, AUGUST 12, 2023
FREE

NFLX

128. Ravens -5.5 (4 PT / 7 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye Sports
Saturday's Free Pick: Houston Astros -175

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Saturday: St Louis Cardinals -145

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ThistledownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=tdn0812zf.pdf&exp=08/14/2023&pds=TDN_-_08/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=TDN&SAP=FREEPICS)


Thistledown - Race 1

$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) $.10 Superfecta / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)


Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $29,700 • Post: 12:20


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 12 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MIDNIGHT MAJESTY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highe st TrackMaster Power Rating. COURTHOUSE COVE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DEACON DOUGIE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint o r route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.



5

MIDNIGHT MAJESTY

9/5


7/2




2

COURTHOUSE COVE

2/1


9/2




3

DEACON DOUGIE

7/2


7/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

MIDNIGHT MAJESTY

5


9/5

Front-runner

94


91


87.2


75.0


70.5




3

DEACON DOUGIE

3


7/2

Front-runner

81


83


81.7


68.4


61.4




4

C J ALL THE WAY

4


10/1

Front-runner

74


73


78.4


62.6


53.6




2

COURTHOUSE COVE

2


2/1

Stalker

91


86


69.6


82.2


78.7




6

AWESOME ENOUGH

6


10/1

Stalker

78


70


68.8


64.8


54.8




1

R CARDINAL PRINCE

1


5/1

Stalker

87


78


41.2


77.4


69.9

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del MarPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=dmr0812zf.pdf&exp=08/14/2023&pds=DMR_-_08/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=DMR&SAP=FREEPICS)


Del Mar - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta $2 Double / $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / $2 WPS Parlay


Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $250,000 • Post: 6:15P


YELLOW RIBBON H. - GRADE 2 (RAIL AT 12 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $250 EACH, WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, CLOSED THURSDAY AUGUST 3,2023 WITH 15 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $2,500 EACH BY SUNDAY, AUGUST 6 AT NOON. $3,750 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $250,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH $150,000 TO FIRST, $50,000 TO SECOND, $30,000 TO THIRD, $15,000 TO FOURTH AND $5,000 TO FIFTH. WEIGHTS SUNDAY, AUGUST 6. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CLOSING REMARKS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SCHOOL DANCE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. AWAKE AT MIDNYTE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPIRIT AND GLORY (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TUR NERLOOSE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.



1

CLOSING REMARKS

5/2


6/1




4

SCHOOL DANCE

3/1


6/1




7

AWAKE AT MIDNYTE

4/1


7/1




3

SPIRIT AND GLORY (IRE)

6/1


8/1




2

TURNERLOOSE

8/1


9/1































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

TURNERLOOSE

2


8/1

Front-runner

101


98


96.4


94.2


85.7




6

GANADORA

6


6/1

Front-runner

95


94


83.6


85.8


74.3




7

AWAKE AT MIDNYTE

7


4/1

Stalker

100


92


101.4


87.2


78.2




4

SCHOOL DANCE

4


3/1

Stalker

98


97


91.2


93.4


84.9




1

CLOSING REMARKS

1


5/2

Trailer

97


97


77.2


94.6


91.6




3

SPIRIT AND GLORY (IRE)

3


6/1

Trailer

98


90


60.2


90.8


83.8




5

LUCKY GIRL (IRE)

5


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

97


94


84.4


89.8


81.3

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ind0812zz.htm&exp=08/14/2023&pds=IND_-_08/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=IND&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED QUARTER HORSES TWO YEARS OLD BY SIRES THAT THE BREEDING WAS SOLD THROUGH THE 2020 QHRAI STALLION'S SERVICES AUCTION AND HAVE PAID ALL FEES TO REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. SEE QHRAI WEBSITE FOR PAYMENTS AND SCHEDULE.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 MALIBU BEACH 8/5




# 3 HQH HICKORY 6/1




# 6 BIG LEWELLA 7/2




MALIBU BEACH is my choice. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 67 speed rating which is one of the most competitive in this group of horses in this race. With a reliable return on investment of +5 this handler has shown decent results with entries running at this distance and surface. Solid gamble today now going off Lasix. HQH HICKORY - She has been running well as of late while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. BIG LEWELLA - The average Equibase class figure of 48 makes this entrant difficult to beat. Win percentage with this jock and handler combo - 18 percent - reliable.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=gp0812zm.htm&exp=08/14/2023&pds=GP_-_08/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=GP&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Gulfstream Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:18pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 EXECUTIVE SEARCH (ML=10/1)
#6 SOUPER LEGACY (ML=20/1)
#4 YOU TALKIN TO ME (ML=5/2)


EXECUTIVE SEARCH - When Camacho and Palmer team up on horses the return on investment has been fabulous at +274. Looking like an overlay in today's race at odds of 10/1. Finished fifth in last race at Gulfstream Park but was close at the finish. SOUPER LEGACY - You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jockey/conditioner combination. This gelding is in fine physical condition. Finished sixth on Jul 22nd. Last ran at Gulfstream Park and finished sixth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the finish line, within five of the winner. YOU TALKIN TO ME - Another way to determine class is earnings per start (EPS). This horse has the topmost in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 JOURNEYMAN (ML=7/5), #5 VLADISLAV (ML=9/5),

JOURNEYMAN - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as regularly as this horse does. Last effort was too strong. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'performance bounce' this time. VLADISLAV - This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough today.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #2 EXECUTIVE SEARCH on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=prm0812zm.htm&exp=08/14/2023&pds=PRM_-_08/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=PRM&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Prairie Meadows - Race #6 - Post: 8:08pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 48

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 CHARACTER COUNTS (ML=5/1)
#1 DAT DARES RIGHT (ML=5/2)


CHARACTER COUNTS - Filly has shown some pace. This shorter trip should be better for her. This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a thoroughbred that finished 2nd in a maiden race last time out but finished well ahead of the show horse. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. DAT DARES RIGHT - Faced tougher last out at Evangeline Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders. That 48 fig this filly registered in her last clash tells me she's a big time player this time around. Have to forget about that last grass race. This filly should do better hitting the main track in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 KENZIE LOU (ML=7/5), #4 EXTESSA (ML=3/1),

KENZIE LOU - Hard to play a racer that lays up for a long time then doesn't finish in the money off the very long layoff. This filly showed very liitle last time out. You believe this horse is going to win today just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top regularly. EXTESSA - Didn't land in the top three on April 2nd at Aqueduct. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - DAT DARES RIGHT - Getting Lasix for the second time. While studying at grad school I did a lot of research on this, and my data proves fillys run much better the 2nd time. Take a good look at this one.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #5 CHARACTER COUNTS to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at GillespiePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=gil0812zz.htm&exp=08/14/2023&pds=GIL_-_08/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=GIL&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 82

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT.124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 MAX IN HEAVENLY 5/2




# 4 DARLING SECRET 4/1




# 6 LBH CARTEL DE OSCAR 20/1




MAX IN HEAVENLY has a quite good shot to take this race. Solid average Equibase speed figs in short races make this pony a solid choice. He ought to be given a chance given the decent speed figs. Could beat this group given the 81 speed fig posted in his last outing.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Hoosier Park

CompuBet Free Pick! CompuBet 08/12 HOOSIER PARK

Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points

Race#: 1- - PACE 08/12 HOOSIER PARK

7 Lovely Munro 2/1 664.55 100 50.0 89.0 1:51.0 Tetrick, Trace 29

8 Elysium Seelster 9/2 628.17 90 81.7 86.0 1:52.6 Miller, Lewayne 14

6 Mel's Vicki Lou 5/1 627.78 90 68.3 84.0 1:52.5 Putnam, Joey 18

3 She Means Business 6/1 622.26 90 68.3 84.0 1:52.8 Bates, Brandon 17

9 Rockin Deo 15/1 621.55 80 35.0 83.0 1:52.7 Oosting, Michael 20

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The LoopAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 6 - Post: 3:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 55 - Purse:$3500 - N/W 6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 5 HANDCUFFED 7/5




# 4 TWO SHOES 2/1




# 1 IRISH MELVIN 6/1





We've got a vibe HANDCUFFED is going to get the win. Overall figures look very good. Can't throw her out of the picture. Could dominate this field, just look at the TrackMaster speed fig - 66 - from her most recent event. Talk about a dynamic duo, Piwniuk and Williams have some of the best driver/trainer stats at the track. TWO SHOES - A specialty of the consortium is recognizing a trainer with a good return on investment percent when a horse goes down in class. Many harness players know speed is of the utmost importance. This interesting entrant has credentials with a 63 average figure. IRISH MELVIN - This horse has the ability to take positive advantage of a favorable pace scenario in this contest.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at The Meadows

CompuBet Free Pick! CompuBet 08/12 THE MEADOWS

Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points

Race#: 4- - TROT 08/12 THE MEADOWS

4 Just Like Magic 2/1 579.75 100 25.0 85.0 1:55.6 Svrcek, Tom 12

5 Never Say Uncle 7/2 529.69 80 86.7 86.0 1:56.6 Harvey, Naquel 13

8 A Royal Line 20/1 514.22 70 31.7 85.0 1:56.5 Oldford, Stephen 12

2 Walkingintherain 7/1 511.51 80 100.0 78.0 1:56.2 Kehm, Jerry 3

3 Wickenburgh 5/1 506.40 60 >21 51.7 80.2 1:56.3 Dinges, Tony 12

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 11


3
3
CHARIOT DRIVE
7/2
Randall, Jay - 18
475.65


2
2
MISTER GODRO
2/1
Dobson, Billy - 12
474.76


4
4
FATHER OFTHE YEAR
6/1
Gray, Shawn T - 19
467.21


6
6
TREASURE MACH
12/1
Fluet, Phil - 10
455.11


7
7
ROCK N TONY
3/1
Beckwith, Brett - 16
448.00


5
5
ALL IT TAKES
10/1
Long, Chris - 12
441.87


1
1
BARNARD HANOVER
15/1
Devaux, Jim - 19
435.13


8
8
BEST SHOT N
20/1
Athearn, Matthew - 11
422.15

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Topsham

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 7


8
8
CALL ME MAVERICK
4/1
Stevenson, Michael - 8
501.46


1
1
GRAND GALOP SEMALU
7/2
Deslandes, Dan - 19
481.82


2
2
AIRSPINDER
5/2
Switzer, Kevin Jr - 30
476.23


4
4
SEE YOU FRIDAY
5/1
Ranger, Bruce - 21
475.12


7
7
THROUGH THE FENCE
9/2
Case, Walter Jr - 15
462.04


5
5
READYFORTHELADYS
6/1
Hall, Aaron - 6
451.58


3
3
LORD WILLOUGHBY A
4/1
Asher-Stalbaum, Winter - 10
440.63


6
6
GOTTI
8/1
Asher-Stalbaum, Winter - 10
411.53

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 8 - Post: 9:55 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$22200 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3: 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 6 RICARDO 5/1




# 8 LITE THE CANDLES 5/2




# 5 THE GREAT EMOTION 6/1





The selection this time is RICARDO. Could surprise us at a good price. Don't leave out. This standardbred could get the win here beginning from the Woodbine Mohawk Park 6 hole. Gelding and driver go together like Sonny and Cher. They finish in the money 100 percent of their races. LITE THE CANDLES - With a 76 avg class figure, this nice horse has one of the most compelling class advantages in the group of horses. This trainer, and the driver McClure, go together like two peas in a pod. Their results together are outstanding. THE GREAT EMOTION - The 5 slot sports a much better than average win statistic at Woodbine Mohawk Park. Worth considering this time if only for the really good speed fig achieved in the last gathering.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/12/23 August 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Free and Humble
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Free and Humble stayed on willingly after a wide trip when third in a similar affair last month and seems sure to improve with the re-addition of blinkers and an ideal inside draw. She’s run well over this course in the past, retains top rider Juan Hernandez, and shows an easy breeze in the interim to tick her over. She’s the logical top pick and 9/5 morning line favorite.

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RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Mastering; 2-Redline
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Mastering exits a starter’s allowance race and should find this straight $40,000 claiming field well within his capabilities. The main concern is his failure to win at Los Alamitos at 2/5 in his most recent start, but he was four lengths clear of the rest and earned a strong speed figure, so perhaps the defeat wasn’t as alarming as it appears. It is the time of the year when horses are being culled to make room for the freshmen class and new purchases, so some class drops can be forgiven and maybe this is one of them. Redline is another class dropper to consider. The Steve Knapp-trained colt was a two-turn winner at Los Alamitos in June but was simply in too tough when unplaced in a strong second level allowance event here last month. He can bounce back today against this group.

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RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Den of Iniquity 3-Night Blue; 1-Irish Rose
Backups/savers/Underneath: none

Forecast: Den of Iniquity is fresh off the plane from Ireland and appears fit, ready, and properly spotted to graduate for trainer Phil D’Amato, who always does very well with these European imports. She’s nicely drawn inside, lands Juan Hernandez, is a first time Lasix user, and has Timeform Ratings that are sufficient to win a maiden race on this circuit. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’ll offer good wagering value. Her D’Amato-trained stablemate, fellow Irish-bred Night Blue, has a similar pattern and is the one to fear most. Fourth in a 20-runner race at Leopardstown last time out, she’s another that will race with Lasix for the first time and should be quite competitive on this circuit. Irish Rose has yet to crack par for the level on the Beyer scale, but her numbers are gradually improving and from her inside draw the Neil Drysdale-trained filly projects to be the controlling speed. She was second with that type of trip last time out, but today’s slightly shorter distance could make help considerably.

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RACE 4: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Sir London; 2-Ever a Rebel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: We’ll double the fourth race, a contentious entry-level allowance optional claiming main track miler for older horses. Sir London returned off a long layoff to finish a solid second in a quick sprint at Santa Anita last month and should use that race as a springboard for this stretch out to a more favorable distance. The son of Malibu Moon was once well regarded and has a history of improving with racing, so we’re expecting a significant forward move today. Ever a Rebel finished nowhere in the Oceanside Stakes on opening day on turf, so he’s back in the allowance ranks today and back on dirt. He’s a strong fit on speed figures with his best effort and has excellent tactical speed that should produce an ideal pace pressing, ground-saving trip. A recent bullet half mile workout (:46 4/5, fastest of 50) is another positive factor.

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RACE 5: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Smile Baby Smile
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Smile Baby Smile looks ready to graduate in this modest maiden special weight sprint for California-bred two-year-old fillies. She’s had a couple of runs and seems to be improving, most recently finishing a willing runner-up while well clear of the rest after a bit of a slow start. The daughter of Smiling Tiger obviously is no world beater but won’t have to be against this group, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s make the Andy Mathis-trained filly a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Benedetta; 2-Dreamfyre; 3-Dua
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Impressive Los Alamitos debut winner Benedetta has the luxury of the outside draw, which will allow her to pop and go or stalk and pounce in this year’s edition of the Sorrento Stakes-G3 for juvenile fillies. She won with something in the tank in her debut but today will need to step it up when facing at least two other fast and highly regarded fillies. The daughter of City of Light is filly of strength and scope and it’ll be interesting to see how much progress she’s made between her first and second starts. Dreamfyre debuted against colts in a stakes at Pleasanton and left them in the dust with an impressive display of raw speed. She may be the quickest in the field and it would not be surprising to see her remain a strong factor throughout. Doa made hard work of it when winning her debut last month, but we’ll give her credit for fighting off all changes to win in a blanket finish. Today we’ll see what she’s really made of.

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RACE 7: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Runninwiththeboyz; 5-Carmen Miranda.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Runninwiththeboyz couldn’t stay nine furlongs in her first try around two turns, faltering under pressure despite an easy trip on the front end. She’s back sprinting today where she belongs, and the Jeff Mullins-trained filly seems likely to return to her best form. A perfect one-for-one over this sharp five furlong distance, the daughter of Liam’s Map projects to settle in the second flight and then blast home. Carmen Miranda won a clever first-level allowance turf sprint at Santa Anita in late April with a career top speed figure but hasn’t been out since. She returns with a steady and healthy series of drills for trainer Phil D’Amato and has won over this turf course in the past, albeit at a mile. Not sure if this distance will prove to be too sharp for her, but we fully expect the daughter of Stanford to be running on strongly late.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Pastor T
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Sir Maximus

Forecast: Pastor T breezed from the gate with Muth last Sunday and went stride-for-stride with that $2 million colt every step of the way. We caught the team out a full six furlongs in 1:13 flat, with neither one asked for their best. Considering that the workmate will be odds-on in tomorrow’s Best Pal St.-G2 after breaking his maiden in a cakewalk at Santa Anita, this was a highly impressive drill for the first timer by Into Mischief from multiple stakes winner Top Quality. He’s listed at 8/5 on the morning line but we’ll guess that he’ll leave at odds-on.

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RACE 9: Post: 6:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Turnerloose; 3-Spirit And Glory; 1-Closing Remarks
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Turnerloose makes her first start of the season and first for new trainer Phil D’Amato, and with an impressive work tab that tells us she’s primed and ready let’s take a gamble on this daughter of Nyquist in this year’s renewal of the Yellow Ribbon Handicap-G2 for older fillies and mares. A stakes winner on grass as a 2-year-old and a graded stakes winner at three on dirt, she was always a versatile and genuine race filly when conditioned by Brad Cox and we expect she’ll remain the same for her California conditioner. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, she offers an excellent price chance in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Main contenders include Spirit And Glory, a Monmouth Park shipper with a turf stakes win two runs back and speed figures that fit with these, and Closing Remarks, successful in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 at Santa Anita three races back, ideally drawn on the rail, and with proven winning form over the Del Mar grass course.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:45 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Missed Call; 6-Warrior Road; 4-Bag’s Gold
Backups/savers: 11-Cathedral Light.

Forecast: The finale is a difficult abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 older claimers that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Missed Call may be as good as any. Claimed in two of his last three starts and now in the Kristin Mulhall barn, the Dialed In gelding has recent numbers that make him dangerous and will be re-equipped with blinkers after finishing a respectable fourth in a similar affair here last month. He shortens up a furlong and should be a late threat. Warrior Road just won a maiden $20,000 affair underneath this bug boy with an okay number and is realistically spotted based on numbers. Bag’s Gold won a maiden $50,000 dash last fall but then was turned out. He returns cheap and will be competitive if he’s the same type of horse this time around.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/12/23 August 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Tall Paul
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Quiet Wisdom

Forecast: Tall Paul finished an excellent second in a quick maiden special weight juvenile dash at Del Mar on opening weekend and then was shipped to Saratoga to take advantage of his New York-bred status. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Frosted had a nice breeze over the Saratoga main track earlier this week and with any kind of forward move should take care of business at a short price.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Ocean Mermaid
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ocean Mermaid left as the 4/5 favorite in her debut in the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Gulfstream Park in May and ran a winning race but had to settle for second (while almost six lengths clear of the rest) after chasing home Crimson Advocate, who certainly franked the form by winning at Royal Ascot in her next outing. ‘Mermaid shows a light series of only three breezes since that race but we’re going to assume that she’s fit and ready for trainer Wesley Ward, whose record with layoff runners (28%, strong ROI) is off the charts. Despite facing colts in this abbreviated turf dash, the English-bred daughter of Kingman is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite, but we’d have to think she’ll go lower.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:17 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Sa Fordada; 3-Freudian; 1-Jolly Miss Jill
Backups/savers/Underneath: 6-Mursal.

Forecast: We’ll spread the third race, a starter allowance ($50,000) main track miler for fillies and mares in which the main contention is drawn inside. Sa Fordada has won or hit the board in each of her last six starts and is well placed to fire another good shot. She has a good stalking style for this trip and numbers that are good enough to win. Freudian returns from Monmouth Park, where she wound up second in optional claimer while earning a career top speed figure. She’s always preferred to run second or third (nine times) rather than win (three times), but her best race puts her right there. Jolly Miss Jill crushed a softer restricted (nw-2) $25,000 field over this track and distance last month and was claimed by a low profile but competent outfit. From her inside draw she’ll likely employ gate to wire tactics and if not pressured could take this field a long way.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:48 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): One Giant Leap; 5-Kupp
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: One Giant Leap finished a distant second in his debut but has won his last two starts in good style, most recently at Keeneland when drawing away with authority to register a four length score in a restricted (nw-2) $50,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. However, he was a voided claim and was forced to miss time, returning today following a three and one-half month layoff in a $32,000 sprint, not a healthy pattern, for sure. He’s also a first time gelding, so there’s lots to consider. However, on pure numbers, the Wesley Ward-trained son of Will Take Charge is simply faster than these, so if he fires his best shot he’ll be hard handle. Kupp is worth tossing in just in case ‘Leap regresses. The Mor Spirit gelding is working on his own two race winning streak, though his numbers are short of what they’ll need to be to win. He’s proven to be a versatile sprinter who can be effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Reynolds Channel; 5-Deterministic
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Informed Patriot.

Forecast: Reynolds Channel is bred more for distance than he is for a sprint, but this highly promising juvenile colt has done everything in the morning like a quality prospect. The Bill Mott-trained son of West Coast brought $300,000 as a yearling, which speaks to his physical attributes, and a strong and consistent work tab should have him plenty fit and ready. Deterministic is another talented newcomer with credentials to win early. The son of Liam’s Map is light in the first dam but still brought $625,000 at auction at Keeneland and has trained in splendid style, showing excellent speed and athleticism in the local drills that were able to view on video.


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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Richies Princess; 1a-Foxy Cara; 10-Souffle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Chicago invader Richies Princess appears to have found a proper spot to win at first asking in this state-bred dash for fillies and mares. The Larry Rivelli-trained daughter of Laoban was given a solid foundation of drills at her home base at Hawthorne and then had a sharp half mile blowout (:47 flat, bullet work, fastest of 50) to have her right edge on for this six furlong dash. A half-sister to the multiple stakes winning Jean Elizabeth (16 wins from 21 starts), ‘Princess appears to be made of the right stuff and attracts top rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. Foxy Cara, in the frame in four of five career starts, shows competitive speed figures but at this stage can’t really beat a good maiden. She’s a one-paced grinding type but can be dangerous if our top pick runs below expectations. Souffle
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RACE 7: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Love Reigns; Love Appeals.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Redefined.

Forecast: Love Reigns was a stakes winner over this course and distance as a 2-year-old and won her only start this year when capturing the Limestone Stakes at Keeneland in April with a career top number. She clearly can fire fresh, so this four month gap in between races is of no concern. She wins this year’s edition of the Galway Stakes for 3-year-old fillies with anything close to her best race, and while she’s listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t go lower. Love Appeals missed as the favorite (beaten a neck) as the favorite in a listed turf sprint stakes at Monmouth Park last month. She’s not a quick type but can turn it on late and may be the one that our top pick has to worry about the most.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:06 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Rhyme Schemes
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Rhyme Schemes arrives from Ellis Park after blowing out a maiden field by more than nine lengths in mid-June speed and authority and looking very much like a future star. He’s 4/5 on the morning line for this year’s edition of the Saratoga Special-G2 and it will take something unforeseen to beat this son of Ghostzapper if he shows up with the same type of explosion that he exhibited at the Pea Patch.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Casa Creed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Annapolis.

Forecast: Casa Creed is the defending Fourstardave H.-G1 winner and appears to be every bit as good now as he was last year following his strong recent win in the local prep for this race, the Kelso S.-G3 over this course and distance last month. A true Saratoga specialist with three wins and two thirds in five career starts at the Spa, the veteran son of Jimmy Creed likes to settle early and blast home, and with two nice local breezes to tick him over we’re expecting the Bill Mott-trained horse to continue his winning ways.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Order of Magnitude; 2-Forrest City; 5-Mistical Curlin
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Memphis.

Forecast: Here’s a challenging starter’s allowance main track miler that offers several possibilities. Order of Magnitude is a first-off-the-claim play for Robertino Diodoro and could be dangerous right back after wiring the field over this track and distance in a restricted $25,000 affair last month. He’s fast on numbers and can win on the front end or from a stalking position. We also like the fact that his new connections are protecting him today, so at 8-1 on the morning line he may be worth a bit of a gamble. Forrest City moves into the Bill Mott barn and has a right to produce a forward move. Second in most recent three outings at Indianapolis Horseshoe, the son of Munnings is lightly raced with good tactical speed and won’t really have to improve much to win on this tougher circuit at 6-1 on the morning line. He projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from there. Mistical Curlin has two very good recent races, but both were on sloppy surfaces that may have moved him up. Or, perhaps, he’s just improved. We have to use him somewhere.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:50 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Waterville; 4-Stella Mars
Backups/savers: 10-Rheaume.

Forecast: Waterville was a tad unlucky when rallying too late to wind up second in a similar state-bred first level allowance turf router here last month. She’ll add blinkers today for the first time while switching to Joel Rosario so with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Stella Mars is protected today after winning her last pair, first in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer and most recently in a competitive stater’s allowance affair with a career top speed figure. A repeat of her last effort may very well be good enough despite the class hike.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Milstein Pick 3 Analysis August 12, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a big 15-race card with the feature coming in Race 11, the Carl Milstein Memorial Pace with a $300,000 purse. The standout Bythemissal makes an appearance in the Myron Charna President's Pace that rolls in Race 10. My focus will be on the $1.00 Pick 3 sequence that starts in Race 9.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (8:56 PM EST)

1-It's Academic (7/5)-This Burke trainee has won 4 straight, the last three wins were big money stakes. Has won 6 of 9 in 2023 and has posted 3 wins in 7 starts here. Has been racing at another level compared to the others in this field.

Race 10 (9:18 PM ET)

2-Odds On Shaggy (10-1)-The Virgil Morgan trainee doesn't have the resume of a couple of horses in this field. But the 5-year-old has hit the board in 8 of 9 with 2 pictures, should be a price and has good gate speed. My thinking is Tyler Smith can leave and land on top until the Missal arrives on the scene. Could get a 2-hole ride, offer some juice for the gimmicks, and maybe do better than just hit the board if the chalk has a bumpy journey.
8-Bythemissal (2-1)-Comes off a sharp win in the Sam McKee from the 9-hole. Can leave as fast as the gate car and unless it's a bumpy journey to land on the point it should be picture time. The Burke trainee is for 2 for 2 at Nfld and is looking to post its 5th win in 6 tries this year.

Race 11-Milstein Memorial Pace (9:40 PM ET)

3-Captain Batboy (6-1)-Has good gate speed and performs well on smaller ovals. Jordan Stratton could get a good early seat and has a tactical advantage over others. Should offer a square price and could be sitting on a big try in the 3rd start since a sick scratch.
4-Redwood Hanover (5/2)-The Anthony Beatin pupil does good work at Wbsb and has been in the hunt finishing 2nd in 3 starts at the Meadows this year. Has enough gate speed to be put in play off the gate and should be racing near the top of the stack. On the downside, this is the first start at Nfld and might be over bet.
6-Goldin Greatness (10-1)-Big Apple invader will need a hot pace and a sharp steer. David Miller can handle the trip and the fraction should be lively, so it's best not to sleep on this price shot. Drew off by over 6 lengths in 151.2 and has won 2 straight. Willing to take a swing at the morning line price and could provide a nice return in the gimmicks.

$1.00 Pick 3

1/2,8/3,4,6
Total Bet=$6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeremy Plonk: Arlington Million Day Pick 3,4,5 | Saturday August 10, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Arlington Million sets up shop at Colonial Downs for the first time on Saturday and is part of a late pick five sequence that has a low 12% takeout. Within that wager is the late pick 4 as well as an all-stakes pick 3 that includes the Secretariat and Beverly D.

Let’s get to work.

Colonial Downs | Race 7 | handicap

Likely a chalky start to the pick 5 with #1 Bouncer (8-5 morning line) and #5 Frosted Departure (6-5 ML) standing out on class in just a 5-horse field. That factor pushes interest more into the later pick 4 and pick 3 in terms of value … unless you can develop a strong preference between the leading pair here and single. #1 Bouncer has more propensity to find the winner’s circle than the class-dropping Frosted Departure, who is just 1 for his last 10, and that’s how I’d lean if playing the pick 5 – otherwise await the later wagers.

Colonial Downs | Race 8 | Secretariat Stakes

Six of these 8 sophomores make a solid case for the victory in a Secretariat Stakes that’s been shortened to a one-mile affair from its former 10 furlongs. I’ll toss #2 Gigante and #8 Tee At One and accept equal coverage with the rest in a race that won’t produce a big price, but hopefully something mid-range. The value plays could be #4 Mo Stash and #5 Northern Invader given the presence of bigger-profile barns like Appleby, Motion and Pletcher with others. #7 More Than Looks is cross-entered at Saratoga and could scratch, reducing the ticket by one.

Colonial Downs | Race 9 | Beverly D. Stakes

#1 Fev Rover (2-1 ML favorite) and #5 Didia (3-1 ML) stand out in this field of 7, though it’s never easy to toss Chad Brown, who has #6 Gina Romantica (5-1 ML), in a F&M Turf division showcase. #5 Didia comes in fresher than #1 Fev Rover, the latter running a very hard third in the Diana at Saratoga against tougher competition last time. You could certainly argue to use both of the chalks, but my strategy is almost always to single in these either-or spots if you can discern between them. Give me #5 Didia.

Colonial Downs | Race 10 | Arlington Million

An 11-runner Arlington Million comes down to a trio for me. #4 Atone (7-2 ML favorite) should get a good trip from his post and near the front throughout. But it’s #6 Master Piece (12-1 ML) that I like most in a second-time Rick Dutrow situation, similar to White Abarrio’s rapid ascension last week in the Grade 1 Whitney. I’ll also include 4-time Million winner Chad Brown’s comebacker #9 Adhamo (10-1 ML), who is placed aggressively while working well and securing Flavien Prat.

Colonial Downs | Race 11 | allowance

In an entry-level allowance projected for a very hot pace, I’ll take 4 closers to finish out the sequence. #1 Cha Cha Mission (20-1 ML) could be sneaky here for move-up trainer Brittany Russell, who takes over for the first time and gets strong local pilot Jevian Toledo. #4 Watch This Birdie (5-1 ML) didn’t get any pace help last time when still breaking her maiden over the Colonial course. #8 Galilei (6-1 ML) reps the always-potent local combo of Horacio Karamanos-Mike Trombetta and exits a VA-bred stakes win. #11 Fish Mooney (5-1 ML) travels similarly over just about any footing, is 8-for-16 in the exacta lifetime, and should handle Colonial fine for a Casse barn having a big meet.

The Tickets
Pick 5 (Race 7): 1 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 with 1,4,8,11 = $36 for $.50 play
Pick 4 (Race 8): 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 with 1,4,8,11 = $36 for $.50 play
Pick 3 (Race 8): 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 = $9 for $.50 play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Prairie Meadows - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#1 Jaydensqueenofhearts
She might not be much more than a pace element from the inside with three running lines that include late fades, but there is also some chance she proves best of the speed and threatens to wire these from the rail.


#3 Nice One Julio
He can be tough in here with a couple underneath shares in recent starts, but I worry he's going to be overbet with this group and doesn't always finish his races with a ton of energy.


#8 Cel's Star
She's in for a tag for the first time off a couple of declining efforts, but maybe the wide draw with blinkers will give her a little room to chase the pace and improve today.


Race Summary
Jaydensqueenofhearts has faded badly in her last two, but she might be fastest early from the inside and could be a danger if she doesn't take a ton of heat into the lane.


Prairie Meadows - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 Lawless John
You'll probably have a decent hint into his fortunes in this spot by the time they hit the far turn, but he appears to be the most committed pace player in here and might be able to string these along enough to score.


#6 Big Luke
He's one of a couple in here with some ability from very close range, and he handled the move around two turns nicely enough last out to think he'll stick around to play a part in this again late.


#4 Warren L
He makes some sense while dropping out of the Iowa Derby, and his late-running style would make him tough if a couple of the pressing types forced middle moves and the pace started to come back.


Race Summary
Lawless John should be all or nothing on the engine here, but I'm hoping the other forward players will relax off him just a touch in hopes he'll come back.


Prairie Meadows - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#1 Sarah's Blue Boy
Not a whole lot to get excited about on paper, but he has a little positional speed from the inside that might make him dangerous while trying this cheaper kind for the first time. Won't surprise.


#6 Handsome Stranger
He's a good fit with these, but he has also given away ground in the stretch call in every one of his six career starts, so I don't trust him a whole lot late. Obvious chance.


#9 Quarternight
He proved competitive at this level last time out, and he has some mild finishing ability that might serve him well in a race without much reliable form of any kind. Plugs along late for something?


Race Summary
Sarah's Blue Boy doesn't bring particularly compelling form to this one, but his best try came for twice this price, and he might find this level the right place at the right time here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#8 GOLDEN CHARM (9-2)
‘Good energy’ to finish second on turf, met promising rival next out on dirt.


#10 FLITTER (8-1)
Worked forwardly for debut but raced greenly as the fave, can awaken with Lasix.


#7 LITTLE JOSIE WALES (3-1)
Finished behind two MSW faves in latest and slow-starting duo two back.


Race Summary
GOLDEN CHARM broke slowly, circled 4-wide on the turn and ran second on the turf in her MSW debut. She dropped to this level and ran second throughout to promising Northern Glow (see 8th race pick) on the main track. Bet to win and place and play an 8,10/4, 7, 8, 10/ALL trifecta.


Laurel Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 NORTHERN GLOW (7-5)
Tracked fast pace, smartly handled on turn, clear second to three-peater.


#2 FRECCIA D’ARGENTO (3-
Had excuse against ‘Glow,’ second to odds-on winner in prior dirt sprint.


#3 CHARMING WAY (9-2)
Inhaled rivals on turn, won in first start for Ness after 2-to-5 fave backed up.


Race Summary
NORTHERN GLOW tracked a fast pace, was patiently handled as she advanced on the turn, darted inside for the stretch run and finished a clear second to a three-peat winner. She goes an extra furlong in her third start and is today’s Best Bet.


Laurel Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 CUPID’S DREAM (9-2)
Tired on ‘good’ turf, rallied to win prior two grass routes on firm ground.


#3 ANONYMOUSLY (8-1)
Drops to half of claiming price, had a year to work on bad gate antics.


#9 PRUDENT SONG (9-5)
Lightly-raced 5yo has good speed, tries to recapture allowance-winning form.


Race Summary
CUPID’S DREAM, put into play earlier at this level last out, gave way in the stretch on soft footing. She changes riders and figures close-up throughout at a distance which she has a win. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - August 12
Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.


RACE #1 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
5
Firsttimeinforever
J Bravo


PLACE
9-5
1
Free and Humble
J J Hernandez


SHOW
4-1
6
Luminiferous
K J Desormeaux


WILD CARD
3-1
4
Sherlyn Go Go
H I Berrios





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Ipanema Princess
M E Smith


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Havana Angel
D A Herrera








* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX









RACE #2 $35,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 MASTERING









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
7
Mastering
J J Hernandez


PLACE
4-1
8
Cyberviking
M Gutierrez


SHOW
6-1
1
Direct Line
U Rispoli


WILD CARD
6-1
2
Redline
T J Pereira





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
4
Kingmeister
A Fresu


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
6
Taishan
J Bravo








* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX









RACE #3 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:08 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
8
La Peer
R A Vazquez


PLACE
4-1
1
Irish Rose
H I Berrios


SHOW
3-1
3
Night Blue
J Bravo


WILD CARD
6-1
7
The Flying Pharoah
D A Herrera





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
2
Den of Iniquity
J J Hernandez


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
6
Sakura Flavor
M E Smith








* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX









RACE #4 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
4
Oviatt Class
U Rispoli


PLACE
5-1
6
Fast Draw Munnings
H I Berrios


SHOW
5-2
8
Sir London
R A Vazquez


WILD CARD
6-1
1
Indulge
E A Maldonado





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
5
Finneus
A Aguilar


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
3
Telos
J Valdivia Jr.








* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX









RACE #5 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:15 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
2
Borntostaythirsty
U Rispoli


PLACE
5-2
4
Smile Baby Smile
R A Vazquez


SHOW
7-2
7
Safa
T J Pereira


WILD CARD
4-1
5
Hot Danzing
J J Hernandez





ALTERNATE 1
20-1
8
Lighting and Reign
M Gutierrez


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
3
Hayley Amber
D A Herrera








* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX









RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
3
Dua
J J Hernandez


PLACE
3-1
2
Dreamfyre
H I Berrios


SHOW
6-1
7
Ur in Trouble
A Fresu


WILD CARD
2-1
8
Benedetta
V Espinoza





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
4
Vinos Angel
J Bravo


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
1
Feisty Mitole
R A Vazquez








* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX









RACE #7 $84,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:15 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 CARMEN MIRANDA









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
5
Carmen Miranda
R A Vazquez


PLACE
5-2
8
Runninwiththeboyz
H I Berrios


SHOW
4-1
4
Stressed
J J Hernandez


WILD CARD
8-1
3
Hotitude
U Rispoli





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Secrets Told
J Torrealba


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
9
Baby Kristen
A Ayuso








* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX









RACE #8 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
4
I Win Again
E A Maldonado


PLACE
8-5
8
Pastor T
J J Hernandez


SHOW
5-2
6
Point Dume
R A Vazquez


WILD CARD
5-1
1
Sir Maximus
U Rispoli





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
In Suspense
H I Berrios


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Ario
A Fresu








* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX









RACE #9 $250,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 9:15 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
1
Closing Remarks
U Rispoli


PLACE
3-1
4
School Dance
R A Vazquez


SHOW
8-1
2
Turnerloose
A Fresu


WILD CARD
4-1
7
Awake At Midnyte
M Gutierrez





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
5
Lucky Girl
J Bravo


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
6
Ganadora
J J Hernandez








* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX









RACE #10 $14,000 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:45 PM ET



BEST BET: #6 WARRIOR ROAD









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
6
Warrior Road
A Alsagoor


PLACE
12-1
1
Sir Flatter
T J Pereira


SHOW
6-1
11
Cathedral Light
A Espinoza


WILD CARD
7-2
7
Missed Call
D A Herrera





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
5
Aurelian Man
U Rispoli


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Bags Gold
J Torrealba








* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/6/11 BOX, 1/7/11 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 12
Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.


RACE #1 $88,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
5
Tall Paul
J Rosario


PLACE
4-1
3
Apollo Code
R Santana Jr.


SHOW
4-1
8
Quiet Wisdom
L Saez


WILD CARD
7-2
6
Mamas Middie
J L Ortiz





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Gucci Man
J Alvarado


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
4
Strawberry Kwik
R Gutierrez








* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX









RACE #2 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:42 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 OCEAN MERMAID









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
7
Ocean Mermaid
W A Rodriguez


PLACE
6-1
4
Good Lord Lorrie
J L Ortiz


SHOW
9-2
2
Revelatory
I Ortiz Jr.


WILD CARD
5-1
1A
Better Luck
D Davis





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
3
Reverend Moon
J Rosario


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
5
Fast Stride
L Saez








* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX









RACE #3 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
1
Jolly Miss Jill
J A Torres


PLACE
3-1
2
Sa Foradada
L Saez


SHOW
4-1
6
Mursal
M Franco


WILD CARD
5-2
3
Freudian
R Santana Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
4
Icy Reply
I Ortiz Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
April Antics
J L Ortiz








* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX









RACE #4 $32,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET



BEST BET: #6 ONE GIANT LEAP









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
6
One Giant Leap
W A Rodriguez


PLACE
8-1
7
Ten Cent Town
D Davis


SHOW
3-1
3
Commerce Comet
I Ortiz Jr.


WILD CARD
6-1
1
Dangerous Ride
J A Torres





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
5
Kupp
L Saez


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
2
Thunderian
J L Ortiz








* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX









RACE #5 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
1
Eliminate
I Ortiz Jr.


PLACE
7-2
3
Reynolds Channel
L Saez


SHOW
5-1
5
Deterministic
J Rosario


WILD CARD
8-1
2
Chaperone
J L Ortiz





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
4
Hurricane Nelson
E J Zayas


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Informed Patriot
R Santana Jr.








* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX









RACE #6 $88,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
1A
Foxy Cara
R Santana Jr.


PLACE
7-2
11
Richies Princess
I Ortiz Jr.


SHOW
8-1
9
Mim
D Davis


WILD CARD
5-1
2
Nolita
J Alvarado





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
10
Souffle
J Rosario


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Neigh Jude
J L Ortiz








* EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/9/11 BOX, 2/9/11 BOX









RACE #7 $150,000 STAKES
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
8
Love Reigns
J Rosario


PLACE
6-1
6
Redifined
J L Ortiz


SHOW
9-2
9
Stone Silent
R Santana Jr.


WILD CARD
6-1
10
My Sweet Affair
I Ortiz Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
15
Cuz Ur Pretty
L Saez


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
11
Reflexivity
R Silvera








* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 6/8/9 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX









RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:06 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
4
Haul
I Ortiz Jr.


PLACE
4-5
6
Rhyme Schemes
R Santana Jr.


SHOW
7-2
5
Edified
J Rosario


WILD CARD
10-1
2
Market Street
J A Torres





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
1
Lasso
E J Zayas


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Woodcourt
J L Ortiz








* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX









RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:44 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
4
Annapolis
I Ortiz Jr.


PLACE
7-5
6
Casa Creed
L Saez


SHOW
3-1
1
Emmanuel
J L Ortiz


WILD CARD
30-1
3
My Sea Cottage
D Davis





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Ice Chocolat
J Rosario


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
5
So High
R Silvera








* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX









RACE #10 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:17 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
9
Memphis
J L Ortiz


PLACE
8-1
3
Order of Magnitude
R Santana Jr.


SHOW
7-2
5
Mistical Curlin
J Alvarado


WILD CARD
5-1
1
Gut Feeling
L Saez





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
4
Whats Up Doc
J A Torres


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
2
Forrest City
J Rosario








* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX









RACE #11 $95,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 6:50 PM ET



BEST BET: #2 WATERVILLE









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
2
Waterville
J Rosario


PLACE
5-1
4
Stella Mars
R Silvera


SHOW
6-1
10
Rheaume
T McCarthy


WILD CARD
10-1
7
Latest Edition
M Franco





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
6
Solib
L Saez


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
5
Lady Jasmine
R Gutierrez








* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/10 BOX, 4/7/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 12
Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.


RACE #1 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
6
Tonic and Gin
W A Rodriguez


PLACE
2-1
2
Mia Mitole
C A Torres


SHOW
5-2
3
Shake It Baby
C J Lanerie


WILD CARD
7-2
4
Missy Bee
E Morales





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
5
Rose Darling
Y Navas


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
1
Summer Dance
F Peterson








* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX









RACE #2 $33,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:17 PM ET



BEST BET: #1 DRE ME LESS









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
1
Dre Me Less
M Garcia


PLACE
9-5
2
Hashtag Winner
R Bejarano


SHOW
5-1
3
Priddis
F Arrieta


WILD CARD
8-1
4
Princesstapiture
W A Rodriguez





ALTERNATE 1
7-2
6
Music Amore
D Cannon


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
5
La Tourista
E Morales








* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX









RACE #3 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:48 PM ET



BEST BET: #4 ATHENS MOON









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
4
Athens Moon
C A Torres


PLACE
9-5
3
Smile Mon
M Chuan


SHOW
8-1
5
Chiron
J Elliott


WILD CARD
5-1
2
Elegant Trip
M Garcia





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
6
My Sanctuary
C Landeros


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
1
Great Barrier
F Arrieta








* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX









RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:22 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 ASTRONOMICO









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
7
Astronomico
C A Torres


PLACE
4-1
6
Coach Jimi D
W A Rodriguez


SHOW
4-1
3
Patch OBrien
G Corrales


WILD CARD
15-1
5
Mor Jazz
E Morales





ALTERNATE 1
3-1
4
Normandy Hero
A Achard


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
2
Liquor Talk
M Chuan








* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX









RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:53 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
8
Ode to Balius
D Cannon


PLACE
7-2
3
British Sea
G Corrales


SHOW
4-1
7
Move to Gold
F Arrieta


WILD CARD
5-1
15
Gottaneedforspeed
M Chuan





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
4
Crusading
R Bejarano


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
6
Dirbas
C Landeros








* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-15 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/7/15 BOX









RACE #6 $15,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:25 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
7
Show Me Grace
F Arrieta


PLACE
2-1
3
Stanley Market
Y Navas


SHOW
7-2
5
Tap N Sway
C A Torres


WILD CARD
8-1
4
Cami Cat
G Saez





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
6
La V.
K J Asmussen


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
2
Joans Way
W A Rodriguez








* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX









RACE #7 $74,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
10
Ivory Moon
D Cannon


PLACE
5-2
1
Hideki
R Bejarano


SHOW
8-1
9
Devine Charger
M Michel


WILD CARD
8-1
7
Empire of My Own
F Arrieta





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
4
Four Dawn
G Corrales


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Honey Run
M Murrill








* EXACTA: 10-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/9/10 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX









RACE #8 $78,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:34 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
2
Kings Ovation
M Garcia


PLACE
2-1
5
Roman Centurian
F Arrieta


SHOW
6-1
3
Group Eighteen
A Beschizza


WILD CARD
9-2
6
Search Engine
E Morales





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
1
Icarus
C A Torres


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
4
Hes Got This
G Corrales








* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX









RACE #9 $74,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:07 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
4
Clever Joke
F Arrieta


PLACE
5-1
9
C C Cruise Control
C J Lanerie


SHOW
15-1
2
Mischievous Gal
E Morales


WILD CARD
4-1
5
In Color
J Talamo





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
7
Unstable Princess
C A Torres


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
3
Be Here Now
J Graham








* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monmouth Park Tip Sheet - August 12
Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track


RACE #1 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
1
Please Baby
I Castillo


PLACE
7-2
5
Get Khozy
S Camacho


SHOW
5-2
6
Power of Nature
P Lopez


WILD CARD
8-1
3
Staff Sergeant
R Mitchell





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
8
Winsor Manor
M Iorio


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
2
Bubby Papermaker
P Henry Jr.








* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX









RACE #2 $27,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 TURN ON THE CHARM









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
5
Turn On the Charm
C E Rojas


PLACE
2-1
6
Alexas Dream
J A Batista


SHOW
10-1
2
Save the Flag
N Juarez


WILD CARD
6-1
4
Milwaukee Bay
J Rendon





ALTERNATE 1
7-2
1
Irie Empress
S Gonzalez


ALTERNATE 2
9-2
7
Exculpate
L J Luzzi








* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX









RACE #3 $10,500 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
9
Mispelled Mooon
J A Vargas Jr.


PLACE
3-1
4
Threatlevelmidnite
M Olver


SHOW
7-2
3
Flip My Id
P Lopez


WILD CARD
8-1
10
Snow Forecast
A Hernandez





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
5
Twirling Wind
J Torres


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Little Red Button
J A Gomez








* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 3/4/10 BOX









RACE #4 $71,875 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:03 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
10
Legendary Thunder
P Lopez


PLACE
3-1
3
Electric Eel
J Rendon


SHOW
10-1
6
Jaspers Pride
J A Gomez


WILD CARD
6-1
11
Charlies Express
S Camacho





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
5
Dark Victory
L R Rivera Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
7
Bookem Danno
S Marin








* EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/6/10 BOX, 3/6/11 BOX









RACE #5 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET



BEST BET: #8 LIOTTA









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-1
8
Liotta
J Rendon


PLACE
5-1
3
Ballindine
M Iorio


SHOW
7-2
4
Spartan Boy
P Lopez


WILD CARD
3-1
7
Flintshires Rock
L R Rivera Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Hollywood Closeup
S Marin


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
9
Snip the Roses
J Torres








* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX









RACE #6 $6,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:57 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 STEPHANIE MY LOVE









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
7
Stephanie My Love
M Rowland


PLACE
2-1
2
Bet of the Century
E Ruiz


SHOW
5-1
5
Angelic Gal
J A Batista


WILD CARD
8-1
1
Gun of Gold
A A Rodriguez





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
6
Popthechampagne Ro
P Lopez


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
8
Throwback
P L Cotto Jr.








* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX









RACE #7 $60,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
2
Customer List
S Camacho


PLACE
5-1
9
White Lilacs
P Lopez


SHOW
9-2
8
Blue Times
I Castillo


WILD CARD
7-2
5
Uncorked
J Rendon





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
11
Mirandas Rocky
J Rendon


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
12
Princess Sophie
P Lopez








* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX









RACE #8 $7,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
8
Bailey
J Rendon


PLACE
7-2
5
Box of Chocolates
J Torres


SHOW
4-1
4
Small Reason
R R Maragh


WILD CARD
5-1
7
Big City Bob
J Laprida





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
2
Souper Fly Over
J A Vargas Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Dizzy Gillespie
A A Rodriguez








* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX









RACE #9 $60,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:24 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
3
Biz Biz Buzz
P Lopez


PLACE
4-1
5
Mamba On Three
J Rendon


SHOW
9-2
2
Full Disclosure
I Castillo


WILD CARD
10-1
9
Pogi
L R Rivera Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
4
Like What I See
C E Rojas


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Just Jeremy
F Gonzalez Jr.








* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX









RACE #10 $5,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:52 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
5
Mr. Extension
C Olivero


PLACE
6-1
4
Justinspeightofit
N Juarez


SHOW
5-1
7
Loverboy Lou
J Rendon


WILD CARD
7-2
2
Prince Filip
L R Rivera Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
3
Shanghai Warrior
P L Cotto Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
1
Living Water
R Mitchell








* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 12, 2023
Aug. 11, 2023


Race 10 at Colonial Downs | Saturday August 12 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern
Arlington Million | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and one-quarter on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward
Eliminating non-contenders:
Before discussing the top contenders, I want to discuss why a number of horses with overall good records and hundreds of thousands of dollars won in their careers have pretty low probability to win this race. Let’s start with Rockemperor (5), one of two trained by Chad Brown (the other is Adhamo), who has banked $1.1 million. In spite of having won the Turf Classic Invitational in the fall of 2022 and the Bowling Green Stakes in July of 2022 he has not been competitive in five races since and interestingly enough, was scratched out of this year’s Bowling Green, which appears to have been an easier spot than the Arlington Million. Adhamo (9) has won just once in six races since importing to the United States in the winter of 2022, and he has been away since a poor effort last October when sixth of seven in the Turf Classic Invitational. Although Brown has a good record with horses returning off long layoffs, there’s not a case to be made this horse can return to grade 1 winning form. Santin (11) won this race last year as one of the betting favorites (2 to 1) but has not been competitive since then in six races, never closer than fourth or nearer than three lengths from the winner. Many of the others have been uncompetitive recently and cases cannot be made why their recent form can be reversed.
Top contenders:
After eliminating a number of horses as contenders, we’re left with just a few, that group led by Atone (4). This past January, following two and one-half months off and a win last November, Atone proved to be a top turf runner when rallying from sixth to win the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, earning a 109 Equibase Speed Figure. Nearly eight weeks later in the Muniz Memorial Classic, and sent to post as the prohibitive favorite, Atone finished last of nine. When returning two months later in the Dinner Party Stakes, Atone led from the start, just as he had in his victory last November, but this time he faded to fifth. However, he has beaten a total of one length and was very game all the way to the finish. For the Arlington Million, Atone gets a jockey change to Kendrick Carmouche, who has ridden the horse just one time previously and that was in his wire-to-wire win last November. With none of the three horses with gate positions inside Atone in the Million previously shown to want to be in front early in a race, Carmouche can easily put Atone on the lead from the start from where he can control the tempo and duplicate his big effort last fall. However, in the case another horse wants the lead more than Atone does, Carmouche can get Atone to relax as he did when fifth in the early stages of the Pegasus, with the same winning result.
Catnip (8) is one of a few fairly lightly raced four year olds in this year’s Million field, who may be able to step up to the task. He has won four of eight career races, all on grass, and has improved as expected during his spring campaign. After winning in April at the first allowance condition, Catnip improved markedly in May to earn a then career-best 102 Equibase Speed figure, then to 106 winning the Monmouth Stakes. Moved up to the Grade 1 level and facing some multiple stakes winners in the United Nations Stakes last month, Catnip was not disgraced when making the lead in the stretch after stalking in second, then being passed by multiple stakes winner Therapist. Cutting back from that mile and three-eighths trip to the mile and one-quarter of the Arlington Million, Catnip has a big shot to make the lead after stalking whichever horse is in front in the stretch and perhaps hang on this time.
Master Piece (6) has won or placed in nearly half of his 22 career start on grass, 10 to be exact, and continues to run competitively every time he steps foot on the track. Returning from nearly four months off for his first start of 2023 in the Pegasus (won by Atone), Master Piece closed strongly but too late, moving from last of 12 to be beaten just three lengths at the finish. Following that came a third place effort with a 110 figure in the Mac Diarmida Stakes and another third place effort in the Pan American Stakes. Given three months off and changing trainers, it appears the much shorter mile and one-sixteenth race Master Piece ran in on July 4 was a prep for this much longer race. Having won the Eddie Read Stakes last summer with a 111 figure which would be very competitive if repeated, it must be noted the new trainer for Master Piece is Dick Dutrow, who recently returned to training after a long suspension. Dutrow proved he hasn’t lost his ability to get horses to run big as he saddled White Abarrio to win the Whitney Stakes last weekend in an upset, and that’s another reason to take Master Piece (CHI) very seriously in this situation.
Set Piece (3) is a horse I will use on exacta tickets in the second position. Although he has won 12 of 28 races, seven of 22 on turf, for the past year or so Set Piece has mostly rallied way too late to win, and he’s never really fared well in grade 1 stakes, except for a second place finish in the 2021 Fourstardave Handicap, where, as usual, he rallied from last to get second while not threatening to win. In his most recent start on July 1, Set Piece rallied from last of 10 to get third. So while he has a big late kick, it usually falls short but that’s exactly the reason he can’t be left off second position on exacta tickets.
Bets:
Consider win bets on one or more of the win contenders at these odds:
Atone (4) at 2 to 1 or more
Catnip (8) at odds of 3 to 1 or more
Master Piece (6) at odds of 4 to 1 or more
Note: If you wager on more than one of the contenders to win, you can structure your bets to win the same amount. This is called “dutching.” For example, if Atone is 3 to 1 and Catnip is 6 to 1 and if you were betting $50 total you would be $32 on Atone for a return of $128 and $18 on Catnip for a return of $126.
Exactas: Atone (4), Master Piece (6), Catnip (8) over Set Piece (3), Atone (4), Master Piece (6) and Catnip (8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Hotlist - August 12
Aug. 11, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Mama’s Middie (A) was nervous and hard to handle pre-race but rallied from last to finish second at 5-1 odds. He gets blinkers on for his second start. (7) Gucci Man will make his debut after shipping east from Hawthorne as a NY-bred for Larry Rivelli. (8) Quiet Wisdom will make his first start for the team of Todd Pletcher and owners Mike Repole and St. Elias Stable. (5) Tall Paul ships to Saratoga from his first start atDel Mar when he set the pace and was third for Bob Baffert.
6th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (2) Nolita (B) had a poor start in his debut, dropped back to eighth, and rallied wide to finish third at odds of 9-2. (10) Souffle moved to the dirt after three turf starts and ran second the entire race. (5) Neigh Jude makes his first start with a bullet work last week to prepare for this race for a trainer that is good with firsters in Kelly Breen. (7) Irish Crystal will make her debut for Horacio DePaz who is an underrated trainer with first-time starters. She has been preparing at Laurel but ships up as a NY-bred.
9th race [Fourstardave (G1), 1 mi TURF.] – (1) Emmanuel won the Poker (G3) at Belmont Park in June with a late run to get up by a neck earning the highest speed figure of his career. Breaking from the rail, he might show more early speed as he did last year when winning the Pennine Ridge (G2). (4) Annapolis has a great record at Saratoga and at the mile distance. He was a Grade 1 winner of the Turf Mile in October at Keeneland. He won the Opening Verse in his first start of the year which was at Churchill Downs. Regular rider Irad Ortiz stays on board. (6) Casa Creed is the horse to beat in the Fourstardave. He already has a win at Saratoga in the Kelso (G3) four weeks ago. He won this race last year tying the highest speed figure of his career. The Bill Mott runner has more than $2.1 million in earnings. (7) Ice Chocolat finished second in the Jacque Cartier (G2) at Woodbine and stretched out on the turf to finish fourth in the Kelso.
11th race [NY, Alw 95000 N1X, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (6) Solib (B) was very rank in his last start and then had to check costing him any chance to be competitive. (4) Stella Mars won her last two starts against open company. She was claimed two races back for $35,000 and then won a starter allowance by two lengths. (2) Waterville was second at this level last time at the beginning of the meeting and gets blinkers on. (10) Rheaume experimented with blinkers last time and they come back off now. Last year she was second against open company twice.
Best bets: Mama’s Middie (1st); Emmanuel (9th). Best value: Noilta (6th); Solib (11th).
SaturdayPick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 9 - 11 and begins with the Fourstardave (G1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Hotlist - August 12
Aug. 11, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) Free and Humble adds blinkers after finishing third and should work out a winning trip from the rail. (4) Sherlyn Go Go exits stakes company and looks like the key rival. (6) Luminiferous flattened out in her first try against winners but is worth a look here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6.
3rd race – (3) Night Blue makes her U.S. debut for D’Amato and may prove best. (1) Irish Rose was second last time and should be a big threat. (2) Den of Iniquity is another Euro with a chance here. (8) La Peer will be a stretch threat with the right pace. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-8.
6th race – (3) Dua (C) dropped from even money to 3-5 and was a game debut winner. Seems set for a successful stakes debut. (8) Benedetta may get a good trip from the outside post. (1) Feisty Mitole was only a half-length behind the top pick and cannot be overlooked. (7) Ur in Trouble was second to the top pick and will be a main threat again. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8. Doubles: 1-3-7-8 with 1-4-5-8.
7th race – (5) Carmen Miranda has been away since April but seems ready to dance into the winner’s circle. (4) Stressed has nice early speed and could be tough to catch. (8) Runninwiththeboyz may appreciate the cutback to a sprint. (1) Secrets Told might benefit from saving ground. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-8.
9th race – (4) School Dance showed unusual speed in a Grade 1 stakes and fits much better here. (6) Ganadora tries turf and deserves some attention. (2) Turnerloose could be formidable in her first start for D’Amato. (3) Spirit And Glory ships in from the East and cannot be discounted. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-6.


No.

Letter/Last race
Today’s race
Comment







(3)
Dua
C, 7/22
6 DMR
Was a game debut winner