Saturday 8/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Houston w/Valdez -140 over Seattle

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U
Saturday Free Selection: Kansas City Chiefs/Arizona Cardinals over 40 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports
Saturday's Free Play: Denver Broncos -4 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play
Toronto Bassitt -135

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Kenny Towers






Your Free Pick for Week 2 of Pre-Season - Arizona +7.5


Played & Documented!

2023-24 Freeplay Record - 1-1

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hollywood Anthony
Your Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take Toronto -135

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, August 19, 2023

MLB

956. Braves-1.10 (4:20 PT / 7:20 ET

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Roz Wins
ROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, AUGUST 19, 2023

CFL

676. Ott Redblacks +1.5 (4 PT / 7 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: the Chicago Cubs -170 over Kansas City

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday :Take BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH UNDER the total of 42.5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Arthur Ralph
Free Play 98-66 run

SAT Total Under 39 1/2 Lions/Jacksonville

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: MIAMI +2 over Houston

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from John Anthony Sports
John Anthony Free Selection for a SATURDAY

CIN REDS

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Chris Tudor
SPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SATURDAY!



NFL Chicago/Indianapolis UNDER the total of 37.5 pts!

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: TENNESSEE/MINNESOTA OVER the total of 36.5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic Sports
Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Minnesota Twins -180

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, AUGUST 19, 2023
FREE

MLB

965. Mariners +130 (4:10 PT / 7:10 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye Sports
Saturday's Free Pick: Chicago Cubs -170

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Saturday: Arizona Cardinals +7 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony Sacco
Tony Sacco's Free Play for SATURDAY:

MIN TWINS (MLB)

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Sandnes Ulf +229

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Rickenbach

Saturday Free Pick UNDER 2 in FC Botosani vs Otelul Galati @ 10 AM ET - Neither club has won a match yet this season. FC Botosani has made changes in terms of managing/coaching. Otelul Galati has managed 4 draws but still hungry for that first victory. The key here is none of their 5 matches this season have topped 2 goals and I do not see that changing here. FC Botosani has been shutout in B2B matches and scored only 4 goals in its 5 matches this season. Otelul Galati has scored just 3 goals in its 5 matches this season. Look for a 1-0 type match here as whoever gets the lead will play a very defensive style afterward as each club so hungry for that first victory of the season. Free Pick UNDER 2 in FC Botosani

[ConleyPicks]

Will Rogers

Free Play: Brentford PK -114

This bottom end version of the West London Derby features two recent promotions from the intense world of the Championship, Brentford (2021) and Fulham (2022). Brentford was only one place ahead of Fulham at the end of last season but they are a world apart now. Even though Fulham is ahead of them this season and ended last season 2-1-1, they were seriously outclassed vs Everton in their win to start this year and their wins to end last season were against relegation darlings Southampton and Leicester. The also only won 2 of their last 7 at home to end the season. Brentford tied contender Tottenham to start the season and finished 3-1 last season with wins over West Ham, ManCity and Tottenham and a narrow 1-0 loss at Anfield.

Fulham is in disarray as Willian and Mitrovic both seem committed to Saudi clubs and Palhinha was hurt but is available and Adarbioyo is unavailable.

Brentford, although still missing Toney is still a progressive club and was able to generate chances against Tottenham. Given all the 3.06 expected goals stat Everton had vs. Fulham, Brentford should do the same and not in the wasteful way the Toffees did. Go with the Bees on this one.

[ConleyPicks]

Ricky Tran

1* on Manchester City -130

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#415 ASA FREE PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 over NY Jets, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These 2 teams had a combined practice on Wednesday and the Bucs DL dominated in the trenches giving the NY offense all kinds of problems. The Jets OL hasn’t been good in their first 2 preseason games and they are really banged up at that position. NY Head Coach Saleh made a point of the offensive line inefficiencies this week in practice. Tampa is off a loss 27-17 loss vs Pittsburgh but the QB group wasn’t bad completing 24 of 36 for 256 yards. TB QB’s Mayfield and Trask are still battling for the starting job so we should see plenty of reps from them. The Jets offense was held under 5 YPP in each of their first 2 games and with their injuries up front we think they’ll struggle here. Rodgers will continue to sit, especially after he was under immense pressure from Tampa in Wednesday’s practice, and we like Bucs in this game. Take the points.

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Titans-2.5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #424 Under in Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers (8:30p.m., Saturday, August 19 NFL+) We saw the 49ers struggle on both sides of the ball in Week 1 of the NFLX season and I do not believe their offense will be much better in this game. Denver played some of their starters into the second quarter last week against Arizona and they struggle to move the football as well. Lots of games went over the posted total but I believe that the defenses will dominate this one game and allow for a low scoring game. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring our NFLX Game of the Year on Sunday. This is one of the most sought out games in the entire country and you can purchase it right here on this site!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse RacingPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=fan0819zf.pdf&exp=08/21/2023&pds=FAN_-_08/19/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/19/2023;TRACK_CODE=FAN&SAP=FREEPICS)


FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 2

$1.00 Daily Double (Races 2-3) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) /.50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) No SHOW Wagering



Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 57 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 7:58P


FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MO WANNA GO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CARICIA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MO WAN NA GO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WILDWOOD GHALY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at th e distance/surface.



5

CARICIA

9/5


7/2




3

MO WANNA GO

3/1


9/2




1

WILDWOOD GHALY

2/1


5/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

MO WANNA GO

3


3/1

Front-runner

59


39


83.2


32.0


27.0




5

CARICIA

5


9/5

Stalker

56


53


63.5


50.2


46.7




1

WILDWOOD GHALY

1


2/1

Trailer

58


56


0.0


51.9


47.9




4

FERGIE ATTACK

4


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0







































Unknown Running Style: HIGHTAILING IT (6/1) [Jockey: Santiago Victor - Trainer: Durham Mike].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=rui0819zf.pdf&exp=08/21/2023&pds=RUI_-_08/19/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/19/2023;TRACK_CODE=RUI&SAP=FREEPICS)


Ruidoso Downs - Race 6

Exacta / Trifecta/.10 Superfecta / 1st Leg .50 Pick 3



Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 3:10P


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DYNASTY STAR V: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BOSSA NEAUVA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. JESSA GOOD WINNER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. MISS LETHAL BEAUTY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



9

DYNASTY STAR V

9/2


9/2




2

BOSSA NEAUVA

2/1


7/1




8

JESSA GOOD WINNER

7/2


7/1




11

MISS LETHAL BEAUTY

10/1


8/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

NECTAR

1


15/1

Average

78


60


5.4


0.0


0.0




2

BOSSA NEAUVA

2


2/1

Average

80


78


5.5


0.0


0.0




3

SHEZ EAGLE

3


6/1

Fast

74


72


2.5


0.0


0.0




4

GOLDIE TRU

4


8/1

Fast

68


52


1.5


0.0


0.0




5

EYEMA LADY SOLDIER

5


30/1

Average

69


55


5.5


0.0


0.0




6

HOT LIL MARFA

6


12/1

Average

72


67


4.2


0.0


0.0




7

QUEEN OF TIDE

7


15/1

Average/Trouble-prone

75


68


5.0


0.0


0.0




8

JESSA GOOD WINNER

8


7/2

Average

80


74


4.4


0.0


0.0




9

DYNASTY STAR V

9


9/2

Average

89


82


4.3


0.0


0.0




10

DREAMERS SECRET

10


20/1

Slow

73


69


7.7


0.0


0.0




11

MISS LETHAL BEAUTY

11


10/1

Average

76


77


5.3


0.0


0.0




12

SIMPLY A DYNASTY

12


10/1

Average

74


73


6.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ded0819zz.htm&exp=08/21/2023&pds=DED_-_08/19/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/19/2023;TRACK_CODE=DED&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 9 SHEZA BELL PERRY 5/2




# 5 CHARTREUSE BLUE 7/2




# 4 MAMAIGOTTHIS 8/1




I like SHEZA BELL PERRY here. Her 78 average has this filly with among the most favorable speed figures for this race. Keith has her trained soundly to break swiftly out of the starting gate. Looks like a reliable candidate for the exotics. CHARTREUSE BLUE - Huitron has shown excellent profits (+17 ROI ) with horses in short events. Has been running very well lately and will most likely be up near the front end early on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=ctm0819zm.htm&exp=08/21/2023&pds=CTM_-_08/19/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/19/2023;TRACK_CODE=CTM&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Century Mile - Race #2 - Post: 4:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 58

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 SMOKIN JOY (ML=2/1)
#2 STARLIGHT LANE (ML=3/1)


SMOKIN JOY - The race may set up nicely for this filly's strong late move. A thoroughbred coming back this promptly after a solid race is a good signal. Finished ahead of today's favorite in the last race at Century Mile. Can do the same again right here. STARLIGHT LANE - Using this jock/handler combination is a good choice. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the ability to make her presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GOLDIE SOCKS (ML=9/5), #1 SHES A COOL CAT (ML=4/1), #4 HERE'S LEXIE (ML=5/1),

GOLDIE SOCKS - You figure that this equine is going to be first just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top regularly. SHES A COOL CAT - This filly hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance contests. Not easy to bet on her in this race. Not probable that the speed rating she earned on Jul 30th will hold up in this race. HERE'S LEXIE - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint affairs in order to support her.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #5 SMOKIN JOY to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del MarPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=dmr0819zz.htm&exp=08/21/2023&pds=DMR_-_08/19/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/19/2023;TRACK_CODE=DMR&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 BARBERA 6/1




# 4 JUST A LITTLE LUCK 5/2




# 6 MANGO MOON 3/1




My selection in here is BARBERA. Has been right there at the finish line most every time recently. This trainer has the strongest return on investment in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last race. JUST A LITTLE LUCK - Make a note that this entrant runs with second time Lasix today. Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. MANGO MOON - Has performed very well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 75 avg speed fig. Has been running soundly in races of this distance, going 1 out of 2 under similar conditions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=wo0819zm.htm&exp=08/21/2023&pds=WO_-_08/19/2023&var=RACE_DATE=08/19/2023;TRACK_CODE=WO&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 4:48pm - Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $117,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 ARTIE'S PRINCESS (ML=8/1)
#5 AUBRIETA (ML=6/1)


ARTIE'S PRINCESS - Fits well considering the fact that the last time she tried this distance she got a speed fig good enough to win today. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. This animal loves the track here at Woodbine. This equine is tops in earnings per race. She looks good in today's affair. AUBRIETA - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Casse. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This campaigner coming off a nice try in the last 30 days is a strong challenger in my opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HAZELBROOK (ML=2/1), #3 AMBASSADOR LUNA (ML=3/1), #4 VALENTINA DAY (ML=7/2),

HAZELBROOK - That was merely not a very good exhibition in the last race. AMBASSADOR LUNA - Won't be easy for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list. VALENTINA DAY - This filly hasn't had any in the money results in short distance races in the last sixty days.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 ARTIE'S PRINCESS is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

7 with 5 with [2,3,4] Total Cost: $3



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/19/23 August 19, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Dawn At Last; 2-Dove in Charge
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Fried Asparagus is comfortably drawn outside and projects to enjoy an ideal journey somewhere in mid-pack behind quick early splits. She’s always been a one-paced grinder but based on the likely pace flow she should be within range and ready to pounce when the field straightens for home. With a prior win over the local main track, the daughter of Tizbud should have no excuses while facing the softest field in her career. Dawn At Last bit off more than she could chew when flashing speed before fading in a much tougher starter’s allowance sprint at Pleasanton last month but is realistically spotted today. She has only one way to go; on the lead for as far as she can take them. Dove in Charge arrives from Gulfstream Park seeking valuable ship-and-win money and shows a winning race three back that charts well with these. She’s likely to draft into a second flight, stalking position and be well placed to produce a late bid if the front runners do each other in.

*

RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Hula Candy; 6-Smooth Salute; 5-Carribean King
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Seal Team

Forecast: Hula Candy isn’t the handiest of rides, but he probably has more natural talent than he's allowed himself to show during the first three races of his career. The son of Twirling Candy wound up a close fifth behind Watsonville is a common race for many of these, and with the switch to Antonio Fresu the John Shirreffs-trained 5-year-old may be able to produce a winning late kick, especially at this longer mile and one-eighth distance. Smooth Salute hit the front but was worn down late when a close third in the same race our top pick exits, and with just a slight bit of improvement today the son of Midnight Lute may earn his diploma. The pace scenario looks modest at best, so we’re expecting the Michael McCarthy-trained sophomore to enjoy a stalking, trouble-free trip. Carribean King was only beaten a length and one half for all the money in that same race and is another with plenty of room to improve. The Peter Eurton-trained colt switches to top rider Juan Hernandez and should be forwardly placed throughout.

*

RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Established; 3-Smuggler’s Run
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Established looks pretty solid in this $25,000 claiming sprint over six and one-half furlongs based on his recent good form and his affection for the Del Mar main track. The Tim Yakteen-trained horse fired a winning shot but was not quite good enough to handle class dropper Colt Fiction in a $32,000 seller last month but at this level the son of Constitution should be able to take care of business. Smuggler’s Run, first off the claim for Peter Miller, is re-equipped with blinkers, picks up Juan Hernandez, and has back form that charts well with these. He’s likely to be heard from late.

*

RACE 4: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Ennereilly
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ennereilly ran lights out when narrowly missing in her debut in Ireland in mid-June, rallying from far back to make it close and then galloping out far in front of the 14-runner field. She arrives fit and ready for trainer Phil D’Amato and has had four local breezes to get her acclimated. With top turf rider Umberto Rispoli taking the mount, this promising juvenile filly should handle this maiden assignment while offering excellent value at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it.

*

RACE 5: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-R Girl’s Werth It; 6-Mango Moon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Sugar Sugar.

Forecast: R Girl’s Werth It is fastest on figs in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and this class drop to her lowest level ever should make the winning difference for the Mike Puype stable. The daughter of Uncaptured ran well to be second in her only prior outing over conventional dirt, so while she’s been primarily a turf performer in her 10 race career the switch to the main track shouldn’t be an issue. Mango Moon won her debut in good style at Santa Anita in June when facing soft maiden $50,000 state-bred foes and then was protected in a starter’s allowance race at Los Alamitos three weeks later. That level was too tough, so this class drop is warranted, and with repeat of her maiden score the Dean Pederson-trained daughter of Straight Fire should be highly competitive.

*

RACE 6: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Lovesick Blues; 1-Hit the Road
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 11-Sarwar.

Forecast: Lovesick Blues ran quite well when second in the Bertrando Stakes at Los Alamitos in late June and today returns to grass, drops into the allowance ranks, and adds blinkers, so we’re expecting the veteran son of Grazen to return to winning form. The Steve Miyadi-trained gelding has good tactical speed and should have every chance from a second flight, stalking position. Additionally, he’s won over the local lawn in the past and retains his “win rider” Ramon Vasquez, so there is much to like at 6-1 on the morning line. Ex-classer Hit the Road, winless since his victory in the 2021 Kilroe Mile-G1, has been started and stopped on several times during the past two years with issues, but this will be his second start of the meeting and the Dan Blacker-trained son of More Than Ready is likely to produce a forward move. He’s guaranteed a good trip from his rail draw, so with good racing luck from the quarter pole home he should have a serious say in the matter.

*

RACE 7: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Flynn’s Chance; 3-Hope Road; 10-Arctic Breeze
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Tamara; 5-Timely Arrival.

Forecast: Flynn’s Chance has done some excellent morning work while preparing for her debut and this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro looks extremely live in this maiden extended sprint for juvenile fillies. A $675,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, she is a full sister to La Canada S.-G3 winner Moonlight D’Oro and looks the part of a quality prospect for trainer Richard Mandella. Hope Road closed a big gap in her debut to be a dead-heat second in her debut opening weekend and should greatly enjoy this six and one-half furlong trip. The daughter of Quality Road has plenty of size and scope and strikes us as the type of filly that will improve dramatically with distance and maturity. Arctic Breeze, a $375,000 OBS April sale daughter of Arrogate, has put together a string of promising drills both at San Luis Rey Downs and Del Mar for trainer Peter Miller and deserves consideration at 8-1.

*

RACE 8: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Anisette
Backups/Savers/Underneath:

Forecast: Anisette has been dominant in a pair of highly impressive wins since arriving from England, first against older allowance competition in her U.S. debut at Santa Anita in May and then most recently in the San Clemente S.-G2, the prep for this year’s Del Mar Oaks-G1. Both of those races were at a mile; today’s trip is nine furlongs, but the way the Leonard Powell-trained filly has accelerated in her first two local outings strongly indicates that the added distance should only help. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line but we’d have to think she’ll go considerably lower than that.

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RACE 9: Post: 6:15 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Man On the Moon; 7-Universal Payday; 9-Granada Flavor
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Big Buzz.

Forecast: This $12,500 main track miler looks wide open and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Man On the Moon goes to a low profile outfit following an $8,000 claim in which the son of Distorted Humor easily handled his rivals with an ideal stalking trip. If he can turn in two alike for his new connections, he should be highly competitive right back. Universal Payday makes his first start since being claimed by a cold outfit for $16,000 and returns on the one level class drop despite finishing a strong second with a good speed in his most recent outing. He’s just 2-for-18 in the past couple of years, so he’s probably not one to trust, but based on pure form he’s a fit with these and could easily regain his winning form. Granada Flavor drops to a realistic level and can improve his recent outings. The outside draw is no help but the Steve Knapp-trained gelding is a fit on figures and could produce a dangerous late kick if taken back and allowed to make one run from the quarter pole home.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Tio Magico; 5-Baj; 6-El Potente
Backups/savers: 7-Act Three.

Forecast: Tio Magico ran a winning race when second with a strong figure in a similar first level allowance optional claimer here last month and gets an extra bit of distance to work with while retaining top grass rider Umberto Rispoli. The son of Uncle Mo hasn’t won in two years but the drought could end today with a clean break that will make for a forwardly placed journey. Baj, a close fourth in the same race our top pick exits, will be making his third start off a long layoff, so a forward move can be expected. Like our top pick, he’s most effective when not given too much to do. El Potente won a starter’s allowance race in gate to wire fashion at Santa Anita in April and makes his first start since while facing tougher foes. The son of Temple City is fast on figures and is a major player off the bench while seeking his fourth straight score.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/19/23 August 19, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Special Element; 3-Hunt Ball; 1-Risk It
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Gypsy Mischief.

Forecast: There are lots of question marks in the Saturday opener for juvenile colts, with a number of well-bred first time starters that may be quite capable of running better than they work. We’ll approach with extreme caution. Special Element has the benefit of a prior run, a distant third place finish in a race that we’d judge to be fair to moderate. If there are no world beaters in here, the Copper Bullet colt has a right to improve enough to win, but his 58 Beyer speed figure falls far short of the 80 that is par for this level on this circuit. Hunt Ball is a debuting half-brother to Cody’s Wish and has shown some ability in the morning. The son of Into Mischief looks to be a decent mover on video, but it’s hard to gauge how much early zip he possesses. Risk It is an intriguing Gun Runner colt from the Steve Asmussen barn. We haven’t seen him on video, but the work tab looks steady, healthy, and decent, so we’re expecting a good effort first time out, though his rail post position may be an issue if he doesn’t break well.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Walley World; 8-Blast Furnace
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Buffoon; 7-Skyler’s Artemis.

Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Walley World is bred for turf (More Than Ready) and has done some decent work in the morning for trainer Chad Brown. The barn has good stats with first timers (22%) so with Flavian Prat taking the call the cleverly named son of the mare Forced Family Fun has the look of a live item. Blast Furnace exits a pair of quick turf sprints at Gulfstream Park, most recently finishing fourth behind subsequent stakes winner No Nay Mets, and almost certainly will employ gate-to-wire tactics on the stretch out. He’s now in the Cherie DeVaux barn and picks up Tyler Gaffalione, so a forward move is likely.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-My Sweet Affair; 2-Gerogees Spirit
Backups/savers/Underneath: 6-Shootoutthelights.

Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. My Sweet Affair was in a bit too steep when unplaced in the Galway Stakes over this course and distance seven days ago but returns off short rest in an easier first level allowance dash and should be able to regain her winning form, assuming the quick turnaround doesn’t produce a negative effect. She likes to settle in the second flight and then provide a good late kick, and given the patient ride she prefers the daughter of Twirling Candy looks capable of tagging the leaders close home. Georgees Spirit is a first time Lasix user making her first start since April. She has a prior win over the Saratoga lawn and could be a better type this time around.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:46 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-In Sky We Trust; 2-Handsome Cat; 10-No More Talk
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: In Sky We Trust may be as good as anything in this highly challenging affair, so at 5-1 on the morning line the Parx shipper with decent recent form is worth a play. The Scott Lake-trained gelding should settle in the second flight and then have his chance when given his cue at the quarter pole. Handsome Cat plummets from the first level allowance ranks to this $16,000 seller in his first start since April, so his current condition is questionable. This kind of a maneuver isn’t too abnormal for the David Jacobson barn, so who knows what kind of shape he’s in? No More Talk is comfortably drawn outside, makes a trainer change to Wayne Potts, and returns to his claim level. Remarkably, this will be career start number 87 (with 14 wins), so the old timer has to be respected, even though his last three outings may indicate that he’s lost a step or two. Still, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking the call, you have to toss him in somewhere.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:18 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Durante; 1-Lafitte’s Fleet
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, an entry-level allowance sprint over six furlongs. Durante won his last two starts by the same margin (six lengths), the first at Los Alamitos and then most recently at Penn National, and today he moves back to the Majors with speed figures that say he is fast enough to extend his streak. Owned and trained by David Jacobson, the son of Distorted Humor lands the ideal outside post, allowing jockey Manny Franco to pop and go or stalk and pounce, depending upon the shape of the race. Lafitte’s Fleet won a $40,000 claimer in clever style at seven furlongs last month and today is protected by Rudy in a sign of confidence. The main concern is whether today’s six furlong trip might be a tad sharp for him.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:52 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Leadership Ability; 5-Pinstripepizzo
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Lem Me Drink.

Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Leadership Ability had a prior race almost a year ago at the Big A and didn’t run terribly, winding up fifth, beaten less than four lengths, in straight maiden company. She returns unprotected in this $40,000 maiden claimer, hardly a sign of confidence, which make us think her connections are culling her from the stable and really don’t care if they lose her. Pinstripepizzo shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and may have found her winning level. Her numbers when chasing much tougher straight maiden company aren’t bad, and while she's a one-paced filly without any real turn of foot she could produce an effective late kick against this group.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Tax Implication; 7-Surge Capacity
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Heavenly Sunday; 8-Prerequisite.

Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Chad Brown trains four of the eight entrants in this year’s renewal of the Lake Placid Stakes-G2 for sophomore fillies. Surge Capacity and Tax Implication finished one-two in the recent Lake George Stakes-G3 over yielding ground similar to what they may have to deal with today, with ‘Capacity winning by three quarters of a length after enjoying a pristine, ground-saving trip. This time, based on the post position draw, it might be ‘Implication who enjoys the golden journey. They’re tough to separate and we’ll include them both, but this time we’ll give Tax Implication a slight nod on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 5-1.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:02 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Gerrymander; 1-Movie Moxy; 7-Nostalgic
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Favor.

Forecast: Gerrymander gets another shot at Movie Moxy in this main track third level allowance miler for fillies and mares. The former finished behind ‘Moxy when they squared off at Belmont Park in late June but this time there is a very slight shift in the weights favoring Gerrymander, who had a subsequent run over this track (a close third) and those two factors combined may be enough to make up one and three-quarter length difference. The daughter of Into Mischief does her best work on the front end and projects to be the controlling speed, so we’ll put her on top but use both in our rolling exotics while also tossing in Nostalgic, a strong runner-up (beaten a neck) over this track and distance in the same race Gerrymander just finished third in.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:45 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Randomized
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Wet Paint

Forecast: The Alabama Stakes’ 10 furlong distance might be stretching her limit, but the rapidly developing and extremely fast Randomized has a chance to grab control early and keep on going based on her visually impressive and highly rated win in the Wilton Stakes over a mile on this main track last month. She loses Irad Ortiz, Jr., who understandably sticks with Gambling Girl, but under Jose Rosario this Chad Brown-trained daughter of Nyquist will have every chance as the controlling speed to wire the field in this prestigious Grade-1 event for sophomore fillies.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:19 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Verbal; 5-Whisper Not; 2-Napoleonic War
Backups/Savers/Underneath:

Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Verbal stayed on gamely when taking the worst of the race flow in a similar second level allowance turf miler at Belmont Park and today adds blinkers after almost two months of rest and a strong, healthy series of workouts in the interim. The Chad Brown-trained colt is fast on figures with plenty of room for further development, so we’ll give him a slight edge on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2. Whisper Not and Napoleonic War, one-three finishers in a similar turf router here in late July, have credentials to be a strong threat as well and are worth including somewhere on your ticket.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Henson
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: This race has been scheduled for turf. We will pass if the race is transferred to the main track. Henson appears a likely winner no matter what surface this race is contested over. Making a monumental trainer change to Brad Cox via private purchase, the son of Verrazano was a credible third (beaten a length) in an off-the-turf state bred maiden special weight dash last month but today shows up in a maiden $40,000. We have to believe he’s going to be scratched, as this drop into a seller makes absolutely no sense, unless he recently sprung a leak, in which case he probably won’t pass the morning vet inspection. Best advice is to stay away.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis August 19, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Hoosier Park has a 12-race card with a first post at 7:00 PM EST. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:56 PM EST)

1-Beauty N Grace (4-1)-Beaten odds-on choice couldn't catch a well-meant winner but did come 1st over. Raced well and could cash the top check with a smooth trip.
4-It's Corona Time (9/2)-Landed in a nice spot at Indy after being off more than 2 weeks and didn't disapoint. Can compete with this kind and should offer a square price.
5-Walkin On Sunshine (7/2)-Likes to cash checks, is in form, and shouldn't blush at anyone in this field. Has the gate speed to land on the point or race near the top of the stack. Either trip could work for a picture.

Race 10 (10:18 PM EST)

2-Southwind Cherry (10-1)-Faces older, made a rare break in the last start, and should be a large price in what looks like a hodge podge classification. Makes the 2nd start on Lasix and will toss the last at Indy. Wilfong should work a good trip and did finish a close 3rd versus similar 2 back.
3-Bridge To Jesse's (5/2)-Drops to a spot to shine and gets a positive driver change as usual pilot John De Long gets the call. Could get a cozy close-up seat and then roll by down the lane at a short price.

Race 11 10:40 PM EST

2-Elegant A (5/2)-Drops to the level of the last win on 7-29 and this post draw shouldn't hurt chances. Likes to rally off cover and the pace should be lively.
5-Sweet Charlie (9/2)-Has been in good form coming within a 1/2 length of winning 3 in a row and the 2 losses were versus this kind. May offer some value and Wilfong should work a good steer from this post.
7-Maggie Rhee (8-1)-Faced 3 from this field in last, did get the top but the pace was quick and faded down the lane. Has good gate speed and can get a close-up seat. Doesn't need to wire the field to win. Will look for a better finish and the price should be right to use.

Race 12 11:02 PM EST

5-Wixx Hanover (6-1)-Came a close 2nd versus this kind and was used a couple of times. Should get a close-up seat and could be in the hunt at a square price in a race without a standout.
7-Fox Valley Cairo (15-1)-Price shot makes the 4th start of the meet, the 2nd on Lasix and fits with this kind. Could surprise with a sharp steer by Bender.
10-Renegade Gypsy (6-1)-Thestable.com entry had breaking issues at Wbsb but since has landed in Ron Burke's barn here and was qualified by Jason McGinnis at Nfld on 8-2. Put in an even effort in the 1st start at HoP on 8-12. Beaten favorite comes back in sequence, the price will be better, Tetrick steers and is a threat if minds manners.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,4,5/2,3/2,5,7/5,7,10
Total Bet=$27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Del Mar - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Timely Arrival
Get a look at her on the track ahead of this, but I imagine she's ready to roll at first asking. Baffert barn tends to dominate these local 2-year-old races, but there's nothing from that team signed on today.


#3 Hope Road
Well-bred filly rallied nicely in the debut run and has some upside with a cleaner getaway and some added ground to work with. Upside makes her tough.


#6 Desert Rhapsody
She moved forward second time out while trying claiming company, but I think that race might stack up well enough here if she can reproduce it while rising back into special weights.


Race Summary
Timely Arrival looks appealing enough on paper ahead of this one, as you avoid any Baffert heavy hitters today and aren't meeting anyone with super serious running lines just yet.


Del Mar - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#5 Anisette
She's going to get bet again here, but there's no arguing with her first two starts in the States, and her Grade II score last out was absolutely as they pleased at 2/1. Think she might just be a superior talent right now.


#1 And Tell Me Nolies
Move to the turf didn't go all bad last time out, and she might be able to build on that just enough to land another piece today. Don't see her turning the tables on the top choice, but she's still a likely double digit price today.


#10 Paris Secret
I really expected better from her in that last one, and I'm hoping she can bounce back today with an improved effort at another decent price. Best stuff could share.


Race Summary
Anisette has looked like a good thing in her two starts since arriving from Europe, and she's going to be another handful today if she shows up with anything similar.


Del Mar - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#4 Tio Magico
He didn't miss by a whole lot last out after chasing an emerging turf talent in that two-back run, and he's probably a bit more tactical than he showed last time out.


#6 El Potente
He'll look for a fourth straight win here, and he seems likely to get another really good trip right up on or near the splits. Probably the one to beat with that consistent form, but I wonder if he's a little overbet.


#7 Act Three
He still might have some upside with just two starts under his belt, and he has more tactical pace than a handful of the other serious threats who will want to be finishing late -- including the top choice.


Race Summary
Tio Magico gets the call off some good company lines in a fun race, and I'll lean pretty heavily on him here while also considering #9 Vancougar on stretch tickets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#4 SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT (7-2)
At proper level, strong company lines, checked with run in latest.


#1 RED WIND (5-2)
Seeks third consecutive victory going a route of ground on the turf.


#5 CUPID’S DREAM (10-1)
Steady miler, gets Rodriguez, might revert to off-pace tactics.


Race Summary
SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT led and held third at this level on the all-weather track at Gulfstream Park three starts ago in a race won by Journeytothemoon (7-17, $167k), who finished 1-2 in her last nine starts. Then she ran into trouble against a pair of $180k earners and recent runners-up in 2X allowance company. Bet to win and place.


Laurel Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 WINDSOR PARK (3-1)
Met Grade II turf winner in turf route, working like a sprinter since then.


#9 TIDEWATER (9-2)
Rallied for third in debut sprint on the lawn, wears blinkers as first-time gelding.


#5 ROCKINGHAM JOE (9-5)
Led and held second in two recent 5F grass sprints on soft footing.


Race Summary
WINDSOR PARK make a good middle move in a debut route race on the main track, then faded from mid-pack in his second start against Kalik (3-4, $208k), who came back to win a Grade II stakes race on the Belmont Park lawn. He shows fast 3F, 4F and 5F workouts for his first start since March. Bet to win and place.


Laurel Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#5 SUPERSTITIEUX (4-1)
Chased and dueled with odds-on faves in last pair, takes some catching today.


#2 SALTY HEIR (3-1)
Consistent, improving and the only two-time winner at this distance.


#7 SPECTRIER (5-2)
Steps up in class after easy victory at this distance in a five-horse field.


Race Summary
SUPERSTITIEUX dueled on both turns with the 3-to-5 runner-up and wilted in the stretch as Krug (5-16, $86k) swept by for the win. He held better on a fast track in the race prior against odds-on pace setter Uncaptured Storm (5-15, $125k). Bet to win and place.