Tuesday 9/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=asd0912zf.pdf&exp=09/14/2023&pds=ASD_-_09/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=ASD&SAP=FREEPICS)


Assiniboia Downs - Race 7

$1 CLASSIC HI-5 / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR



Claiming $4,000 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 10:05


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 12, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * OLD TRAFFORD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. OUT ON SATURDAY: Today is a sprin t and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RIDE EM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.



2

OLD TRAFFORD

6/1


9/2




9

OUT ON SATURDAY

9/2


6/1




4

RIDE EM

5/2


6/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

OLD TRAFFORD

2


6/1

Stalker

89


68


73.5


78.6


75.6




9

OUT ON SATURDAY

9


9/2

Stalker

79


76


66.6


74.0


66.5




4

RIDE EM

4


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

79


73


77.0


74.2


65.7




10

SATURDAY SERVICE

10


10/1

Alternator/Stalker

63


58


68.8


60.2


43.2




5

MAYBE SOMETIME

5


8/1

Trailer

85


81


49.0


71.8


61.8




8

GENTRIFIED

8


7/2

Trailer

74


75


39.0


70.8


62.3




6

REALLY SLOW

6


15/1

Trailer

77


65


36.4


69.0


54.0




3

MANY ROSES

3


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

87


69


68.3


65.4


55.4




7

DOUBLE TIME

7


50/1

Alternator/Non-contender

70


65


67.6


57.2


40.2




1

ITS A BOY

1


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

90


85


28.4


57.8


46.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ind0912zf.pdf&exp=09/14/2023&pds=IND_-_09/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=IND&SAP=FREEPICS)


Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 4

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)



Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 4:03P


(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, STATE BRED OR INDIANA BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CHANISA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SURELY SHIRLEY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. RAINDROPS ON ROSES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EIVISSA: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentag e with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



4

SURELY SHIRLEY

2/1


6/1




3

CHANISA

8/5


6/1




6

RAINDROPS ON ROSES

9/2


6/1




5

EIVISSA

8/1


7/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

CHANISA

3


8/5

Front-runner

77


78


70.1


70.1


63.1




1

I OWE UNCLE MO

1


6/1

Stalker

75


70


79.6


66.4


57.9




5

EIVISSA

5


8/1

Stalker

81


81


74.3


72.8


64.8




4

SURELY SHIRLEY

4


2/1

Stalker

83


82


58.8


77.7


75.7




6

RAINDROPS ON ROSES

6


9/2

Alternator/Stalker

84


83


84.4


76.3


71.3




2

MY TALLULAH

2


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

63


69


59.7


64.5


54.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=mnr0912zz.htm&exp=09/14/2023&pds=MNR_-_09/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=MNR&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14200 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 BUTTON BOX 2/1




# 1 FUNKY MUSIC 6/1




# 5 AMIGO'S AFFAIR 3/1




I've got to go with BUTTON BOX. With a reliable 89 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. The speed fig of 88 from his latest affair looks decent in here. FUNKY MUSIC - This horse has a excellent win percent in turf sprints. Very good rider and handler combo winning 23 percent of their races working together. AMIGO'S AFFAIR - Johnson is serious with this one, wheeling him right back. He has been running soundly recently while recording solid speed figs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=pid0912zm.htm&exp=09/14/2023&pds=PID_-_09/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=PID&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 3:54pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 FLAWLESS BOURBON (ML=9/5)
#6 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT (ML=5/2)
#5 YADI (ML=3/1)


FLAWLESS BOURBON - When Weaver gives Martinez a leg up on any noble animal, you know that with their win percent you have at worst a fighting chance. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a sharp contest is a good signal. DIGITAL FOOTPRINT - I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least 5 class-rating points like this one did last out. I believe he'll be competitive at this level. This gelding's last speed fig is high enough to prove victorious here, I'll play him back again today. Look at this pattern of improvement. 75/84/94 are the last three speed ratings. YADI - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +999. This gelding is in excellent form right now. Ended up second in the last race and comes back promptly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CHIC N WILBUR (ML=5/1), #1 TEMPUS (ML=6/1),

CHIC N WILBUR - Granted the last race was nice, finishing first. The lack of any recent activity raises some concerns though. TEMPUS - A bit of a less than stellar try when this gelding finished eighth. Will probably be stranded with way too much to do in the homestretch.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Doesn't look like any horse is going to be the right price to make a straight wager



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger LakesPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=fl0912zz.htm&exp=09/14/2023&pds=FL_-_09/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=FL&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $32100 Class Rating: 66

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 MS. SOLVEIG 6/5




# 6 HAPPY TIME 2/1




# 1 BABI DREAMS 10/1




I think MS. SOLVEIG is a respectable choice. Last time out, this filly ran against a rougher bunch. Have to bet on this filly with the sound earnings per start in dirt route races. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field lately. HAPPY TIME - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Acquilano have shown strong results recently. BABI DREAMS - Dediego has an excellent return on investment over the past 30 days (+8) which should probably help wagerers with this pick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=fan0912zm.htm&exp=09/14/2023&pds=FAN_-_09/12/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/12/2023;TRACK_CODE=FAN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:28pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 77

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 COMMISSIONER GULCH (ML=3/1)
#8 FREEDOM ATTACK (ML=7/2)


COMMISSIONER GULCH - Have to make this filly a solid contender; she comes off a sharp effort on August 24th. I think FanDuel Horse Racing players know a good thing when they see the rider/conditioner pair of Arrieta and Becker. Their win percentage together has been positive. This filly is almost always in-the-money. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another sign that this animal has the class to win today. FREEDOM ATTACK - I am keen on that most recent contest on August 27th at Hawthorne where she finished first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY (ML=4/1), #3 COWGIRL FRANKIE (ML=9/2), #5 LUTION (ML=8/1),

LOVEYOULIKECRAZY - The third place finish position in the last event was not the greatest. COWGIRL FRANKIE - This filly is always around, but just doesn't finish on top. Tough to play her on the win end. When any animal improves so much on the soft turf, I have to be a little shy about her next time. LUTION - This mount just hasn't looked ready lately.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #7 COMMISSIONER GULCH on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#6 Soul of the Beast
Hoping the one drawn inside her will take enough cash to keep the price just playable, but I don't think there's any chance she gets lost on the board off a good debut and claim by a capable team.


#5 Kagero
Think she's supposed to win this one while dropping in class, but she has already had a couple chances with this kind and settled for some shares. Obviously capable, but maybe at an underlaid price?


#8 Golden Phase
Her overall form is pretty even, but that might be good enough to help her land a piece against a pretty modest group. Makes sense.


Race Summary
Soul of the Beast and Kagero figure to take their share of cash, but I'm hoping the former is a slightly better price with more upside after just one career start.



Presque Isle Downs - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Extrasexybigdaddee
He almost always takes cash here, but I wonder if maybe the runner-up try last out might keep the price interesting enough? Might be the right day to get on board.


#1 Grey Invasion
He was good in this space at 10/1 last out, and I wouldn't argue with anyone riding the hot hand while stepping up again. He'll be covered on my tickets, but I think this is a much tougher group than the one he just beat. Super sharp, but I'm mildly skeptical.


#4 Mason Mania
He's probably supposed to be a good fit here after a productive enough swing in New York, but I also don't think he's a sure thing while coming back to Pennsylvania. Overbet?


Race Summary
Big fan of Grey Invasion and the way he's going right now, but I think he's facing a couple of seasoned and classy types that may not have been found in his last step up and score. One of those is Extrasexybigdaddee, who might at least be a price worth considering today?



Presque Isle Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Huntin' the Rut
He's always dicey speed, but his two-turn efforts recently have been just a bit better, and I wonder if this is a group he might be able to wire on a modest enough pace.


#10 Nathaniel's Hope
He outran his 37/1 price by a long way last out when stepping up nicely off the graduation run, and something similar would keep him in the mix right back. Like that he's pretty honest for a cheaper horse.


#4 Up For the Chance
Wouldn't want to be here at too short a number as he comes back down in price, as he has already had a lot of chances with this kind of company. Obvious player on form, but I talked myself out of having him on top thanks to his tendency to run to his company.


Race Summary
Huntin' the Rut is really tough to trust based on form full of fade jobs, but he's still generally pretty competitive with this kind and might be working with a good race flow today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 CRAZYCANTBERIGHTED (4-1)
Loomed boldly before erratic behavior took over, can use speed well.


#2 OAKEN (5-2)
Just missed at 1-5 odds sprinting at this level, chased winner when second at one mile.


#3 GOLDEN MONEY (8-1)
Once classy 6yo burned money in his last four starts, switches barns again.


Race Summary
CRAZYCANTBERIGHTED led at the stretch call in 3 of his last 5 starts, settling for minor awards three times. He appeared headed to victory last out but drifted in and bumped the winner several times in the final furlong. He can make maximum use of his speed in this spot. Bet to win and place.



Thistledown - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#3 SAUNTER (4-1)
Played bridesmaid in 4 of last 7 starts, expect good effort, don’t expect 4-1 odds.


#2 LA KADENZA (6-1)
Good 4F breeze before second start in MSW company, can factor at this level.


#6 SOLDAT TEMPTATION (2-1)
Piles up the checks but stands 0-for-28, runs for cheapest tag yet.


Race Summary
SAUNTER, the beaten favorite last out, merits top billing off her two prior starts when she ran second to MSW class dropper Ann Kor and Jumpin To Sanity, who came back with a ‘quick move’ to finish second in a $7,500/nw2 claimer. Bet to win and place.



Thistledown - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#5 K P SILVER BULLET (3-1)
Should sit ideal trip in bid for three consecutive victories.


#9 UNIDENTIFIED MAN (12-1)
Can rally into gimmick wager tickets at a big price.


#4 BOURBON OVER ICE (4-1)
Ran big one with second-time blinkers but takes class drop off claim.


Race Summary
K P SILVER BULLET won two in a row to end a long winless drought, ran well off a longer layoff than this to start his 5yo season and projects an ideal stalking trip in a speed-laden field. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-9 exacta box.