Wednesday 9/20/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Presque Isle Downs - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#6 Rock N Reward
Debuter goes first out for a capable team, and I'm not sure there's anything to be super afraid of in this spot. Think a little debut tactical pace might go a long way here if he's got any.


#2 Hector
He has an experience edge on many of these and has already turned in a few pretty solid and respectable efforts. He's an obvious player here, but he has been sent to post at 7/5, 6/5, and 3/5 in his three losses so far, and he has also given away ground in the stretch call of every one. Your call.


#7 Rebel Warrior
He hasn't shown anything serious through two starts, but maybe the move in with the locals will wake him up a bit while trying the new footing. Chases and stays on a bit better today?


Race Summary
Get a look at Rock N Reward on the track and tote, but I don't really trust the likely chalk, Hector, even if he could well win this by three lengths.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#7 Fortune Seller
Honestly not sure how the Rivelli runner is going to get bet, but I'm hoping it's enough to leave this guy at even a mildly appealing price. The barn is good with these types locally, and he's almost surely finding a softer spot today than he did at Saratoga and Woodbine to kick off his career.


#2 Baytown Bruiser
He goes first time out for a team that does okay with their young routers like this, and while I don't get too drawn into workouts on paper, I have a mild concern about nothing being published since the first of the month. Wouldn't be mad to see him win one for the Gov.


#4 Lou the Body
Debuter goes for a team I respect in almost all categories, but there are occasionally holes to poke in the paper form of their firsters going long. Wouldn't be a surprise -- take a look on the track.


Race Summary
Fortune Seller chased a next-out stakes winner in his debut at Saratoga, but he didn't back that up at Woodbine last time out. I think it's probably a pretty encouraging sign that he spins back in just 10 days off a flat run -- maybe it was just a clunker to toss and he's doing great.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#1 Mr. Yasuda
He had been showing some hints of life in those starts earlier this summer, and he kicked home nicely to find the exacta for the first time in his career last out. Willing to take that at face value right now and give him a look right back.


#6 Yardman
Considered him on top, as he projects for a pretty cozy trip just in behind a few speedier players, and he should be in a spot to move and engage the leaders when the running starts.


#8 Giantsbane
His form is kind of hit or miss, but he has never been in quite this easy yet, and he's got a fairly honest ability to finish with a little enthusiasm. He can hit hard here on class, but I would be careful if the price gets short.


Race Summary
Mr. Yasuda is getting short on excuses, but he has never been in better form. That's not saying much, but it might not have to in order to land this one, and I think there is probably a fair enough pace to give him an honest chance to kick home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Penn National - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#8 VALENTIN C (8-1)
Price shot if he handles the lawn for new connections.


#9 FAST FREEZE KAZ (10-1)
Barn hits at high rate with first-out claimers.


#10 TERRIBLEIGH (6-1)
Took some money, pressed pace until stretch fade in debut.


Race Summary
VALENTIN C is a live longshot if his improved form with blinkers carries over the turf. He ‘rallied well’ to finish behind the favorites in third two starts ago, then held second behind a 1-to-5 runaway in a five-horse field at Colonial Downs. Bet to win and place and play a 2-8-9-10 exacta box.


Penn National - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 VIOLENT PASS (10-1)
Proven 6F form, gets pace to run at, price attached.


#5 I SEE THE STARS (9-2)
Joined $100,000 Club with 5-1/2F romp at this level.


#7 KEEPING IT COUNTRY (5-1)
Upstaged dirt sprint checks with romp in second try for barn.


Race Summary
VIOLENT PASS (10-1) – Rallied to win 3 of his last 7 starts at Penn National at this distance. He lost all chance at the break two back at this level, then ran third behind Annamated Moon (9-44, $209k) last out. Bet to win and place.


Penn National - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 MAGIC SPIN (4-1)
Fast, game, solid record at Penn National and at distance.


#2 HEADS OR TAILS (8-1)
Maryland invader ranged up behind duelers, came up empty in 2-turn sprint.


#7 YES SIR ROBERT (7-2)
Idle two months since claim out of easy victory.


Race Summary
MAGIC SPIN has good speed, good recent form and doesn’t shy from the photo-finish camera. He shook a duel on the turn and just missed after a stretch-long battle with the rail-running winner. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=prx0920zf.pdf&exp=09/22/2023&pds=PRX_-_09/20/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/20/2023;TRACK_CODE=PRX&SAP=FREEPICS)


Parx Racing - Race 1

Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Philly BIG 5



Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 12:40


(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SCINTILLATING STAR is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SCINTILLATING STAR: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racin g off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. TUDOR PEAK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the di stance/surface. BIG AMBITION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HIP HOP HOORAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourt h start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



1

SCINTILLATING STAR

3/1


7/2




7

TUDOR PEAK

7/2


6/1




8

BIG AMBITION

4/1


8/1




5

HIP HOP HOORAY

9/2


10/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

SCINTILLATING STAR

1


3/1

Stalker

72


68


76.8


65.4


61.9




8

BIG AMBITION

8


4/1

Stalker

70


62


67.2


57.4


50.4




4

BACK TO D' FUTURE

4


5/1

Stalker

49


55


65.0


48.0


38.0




5

HIP HOP HOORAY

5


9/2

Stalker

57


60


61.8


58.6


49.6




7

TUDOR PEAK

7


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

64


63


64.8


63.0


56.5




2

SO SWELL

2


12/1

Trailer

62


50


24.2


49.2


36.7




3

LA LUISA

3


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

78


71


72.8


49.6


39.6




6

AKNA

6


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

77


80


26.5


45.5


34.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=pid0920zf.pdf&exp=09/22/2023&pds=PID_-_09/20/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/20/2023;TRACK_CODE=PID&SAP=FREEPICS)


Presque Isle Downs - Race 8

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent)



Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 6:09P


(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * GIANTSBANE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. YARDMAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMast er Power Rating. GIZMO'S MISSION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.



8

GIANTSBANE

3/1


9/2




6

YARDMAN

7/2


6/1




9

SHARP PLAY BOY

10/1


7/1




4

GIZMO'S MISSION

4/1


9/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

GIANTSBANE

8


3/1

Stalker

73


71


76.2


64.8


59.3




6

YARDMAN

6


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

69


66


83.1


57.2


47.7




5

THREE O ONE

5


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

76


70


54.3


52.4


41.9




4

GIZMO'S MISSION

4


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

75


62


53.6


53.6


46.1




9

SHARP PLAY BOY

9


10/1

Trailer

70


47


90.1


59.7


51.2




1

MR. YASUDA

1


6/1

Trailer

72


63


60.6


52.0


42.0




7

ROUND ROBIN

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

60


18


94.7


31.7


14.2




10

SHAKEN AND SHIMMY

10


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


64.6


50.8


35.3




11

LOZ

11


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

76


75


52.1


17.1


8.6




3

CALL ME NOW

3


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


25.9


25.9


7.4




2

SHEP

2


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


15.9


15.9


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=pen0920zm.htm&exp=09/22/2023&pds=PEN_-_09/20/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/20/2023;TRACK_CODE=PEN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:28pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,100 Class Rating: 87

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 YES SIR ROBERT (ML=7/2)
#8 NICE WEATHER (ML=6/1)
#3 ANNAMATED MOON (ML=8/1)
#5 ZILLION (ML=8/1)


YES SIR ROBERT - Took a significant drop in class rating in the last race at Penn National. Returning to a similar level right here. Should do well. NICE WEATHER - Cora is back for another event today after sitting atop this animal for the first attempt on Aug 25th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. You always have to be on the prowl for money making rider/trainer teams; we have one right here. Multiple trips to the winner's circle over the surface right here at Penn National. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle in this race. ANNAMATED MOON - Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each contest he keeps getting closer. I like to play this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a good race within the last thirty days. This jock and trainer have a positive return on investment when they work together. Three consecutive improved speed figs (77-79-81) make this animal a dominant contender. ZILLION - A pony coming back this soon after a nice race is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DON'T LOSEMYMONEY (ML=3/1), #6 MAGIC SPIN (ML=4/1), #1 BEYOND THE BEND (ML=8/1),

DON'T LOSEMYMONEY - A pattern of deteriorating Equibase speed figures 84/72/65 for this entrant. Hasn't been on the Penn National oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. MAGIC SPIN - Would have to get much more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 4/1 to wager on this horse. BEYOND THE BEND - Difficult to take this runner at these odds after the finish (third) in the last race. Unlikely that the speed rating he earned on Aug 25th will be enough in this affair.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #7 YES SIR ROBERT to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with [3,5,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

7 with [3,5,8] with [3,5,8] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

7 with [3,5,8] with [3,5,8] with [3,5,8] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ajx0920zz.htm&exp=09/22/2023&pds=AJX_-_09/20/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/20/2023;TRACK_CODE=AJX&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Stakes - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, QROOI OVERNIGHT DISTANCE SERIES 3 S. - FOR NOMINATED THREE YEAR OLDS & UPWARD. 10 HIGHEST MONEY EARNERS PREFERRED. FINAL PURSE BASED ON NUMBER OF ENTRIES AT TIME OF DRAW




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 FIRST COLD WAVE 3/1




# 4 HANOVER HILL THERESA 2/1




# 1 JESS A DEAL 5/2




I've got to go with FIRST COLD WAVE. Could provide positive profits based on very good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 81. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Pascoe has him trained soundly to break promptly out of the starting gate. HANOVER HILL THERESA - Could best this group of animals based on the speed fig - 79 - of her last contest. Her 75 average has this mare with among the strongest speed figures in this contest. JESS A DEAL - With a formidable 79 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Going in a short race gives this mare a formidable shot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=tdn0920zm.htm&exp=09/22/2023&pds=TDN_-_09/20/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/20/2023;TRACK_CODE=TDN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,100 Class Rating: 77

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 GONE IN A FLASH (ML=8/1)
#3 NEED TO KNOW BASIS (ML=9/5)
#4 BLAZING BURROUGHS (ML=12/1)


GONE IN A FLASH - Last time out, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Thistledown. Should do much better right here in this race. NEED TO KNOW BASIS - This horse has done very well at this distance. This gelding's last speed rating is good enough to win here, I'll bet on him back again this time out. BLAZING BURROUGHS - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. Ran a less than stellar race at Belterra Park in the last race. Racing without the off-track conditions puts this gelding at the top of my list of contenders. Dillion adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a significant improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 INTO GOLD (ML=2/1), #1 CASUAL ATTIRE (ML=7/2), #2 CONDEMNATION (ML=5/1),

INTO GOLD - Difficult to put any dough on this gelding on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. CASUAL ATTIRE - Don't feel this pony will do much running in today's event. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. CONDEMNATION - Could be tough for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the questionable challengers list.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 GONE IN A FLASH to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at AlbuquerquePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=alb0920zz.htm&exp=09/22/2023&pds=ALB_-_09/20/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/20/2023;TRACK_CODE=ALB&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 50

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 RACE WILL BE LASIX FREE.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 AARON WHO 3/1




# 9 HORNS N HALOS 7/2




# 8 EVERYROSEHASATHORN 9/2




I think AARON WHO is a solid choice. In this field, this entrant is at the top in earnings per start in dirt sprint races. Fincher has a solid win percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the midpoint of the affair. HORNS N HALOS - Will almost certainly compete soundly in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. Lately Fincher has provided wagerers with a quite good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. EVERYROSEHASATHORN - Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this group of horses. This gelding has some longshot handicapping angles I like to take a chance on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - September 20
Sep. 19, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.


RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
5
Metallic Man
J D Ramos


PLACE
3-1
7
Flowerpecker
M Burnham


SHOW
15-1
4
Sacred Sky
F De La Cruz


WILD CARD
4-1
6
Idea Man
S E Bermudez





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
1
Sudden Shift
E E Perez


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
8
Shipshape
R A Prescott








* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX









RACE #2 $5,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-5
2
Fredericia
J D Ramos


PLACE
9-2
4
Daltons Love
S E Bermudez


SHOW
15-1
7
With Cause
A Burgos


WILD CARD
5-2
3
Happy Sails
G Terraza





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
6
Wicked Ecstasy
M Burnham


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
1
She Ranup the Amex
M Franklin








* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX









RACE #3 $43,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:32 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
2
Good Forever
F De La Cruz


PLACE
9-2
6
Spotonjustice
A P Ulloa


SHOW
8-1
4
Butchs Best
M Anderson


WILD CARD
7-2
7
Wire the Cash
O Mojica





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
5
C. Js Storm
A Burgos


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Cowboy Image
J K Court








* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX









RACE #4 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:03 PM ET



BEST BET: #10 CLEARLY COPPER









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
10
Clearly Copper
K J Asmussen


PLACE
9-2
5
Isle of Hope
E Esquivel


SHOW
7-2
7
Georgia On Esmind
R Diaz


WILD CARD
20-1
3
Margarets Lady
M Franklin





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
2
Nativity
R A Prescott


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
6
By Heart
J D Ramos








* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX









RACE #5 $5,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:34 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
9
Overthetopjustice
F De La Cruz


PLACE
15-1
1
Second to No One
E E Perez


SHOW
9-2
7
Pablos Sun
M Franklin


WILD CARD
5-1
10
Boulder Bay
R Diaz





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
4
Mister Macho
O Mojica


ALTERNATE 2
3-1
5
Cant Say Elly Mae
R A Prescott








* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX









RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
1
Simply Jack
C A Emigh


PLACE
4-1
10
Ghost Bike
O Mojica


SHOW
9-2
9
Step On It
R A Prescott


WILD CARD
10-1
4
Bold Bali
T Heard





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
12
Electric Charge
A Bendezu


ALTERNATE 2
30-1
8
Action Seeker
E E Perez








* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/9/10 BOX, 4/9/10 BOX









RACE #7 $20,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
3
Silver Moon Road
S E Bermudez


PLACE
9-2
7
Trikitraki
F De La Cruz


SHOW
12-1
4
Fenestra
M Anderson


WILD CARD
3-1
1
Optimal Courage
M A Perez





ALTERNATE 1
20-1
2
Uncle Earl
J D Ramos


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
9
El Rosillo
M Burnham








* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX









RACE #8 $36,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
1
Nerves of Steel
J Talamo


PLACE
5-2
10
Altazor
J D Ramos


SHOW
8-1
14
Driven One
C A Emigh


WILD CARD
10-1
9
Circle Back Jack
R Diaz





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
11
Leave It to Kitten
S E Bermudez


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Nip N Tuck
E Esquivel








* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-14 BOX, 14-9 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/10/14 BOX, 9/10/14 BOX









RACE #9 $15,000 TRIALS
400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:35 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-5
2
Tachas Secret
F Morin


PLACE
8-1
4
Winner Spirit
A Hernandez-Lopez


SHOW
6-1
8
Cv Struttinforakiss
E Diaz


WILD CARD
5-1
3
Ajk Forgiven
J M Ruiz





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
6
Miri V
G Vazquez-Gomez


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
5
One Famous Amos
G A ONeal








* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX









RACE #10 $15,000 TRIALS
400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:03 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
4
Royal Sin
I Banuelos


PLACE
5-1
2
Streakindownthebeach
R D Pina


SHOW
5-2
7
Seize Greatness
S Jackson


WILD CARD
4-1
9
Rb Ec Mystery Zoom
E Diaz





ALTERNATE 1
7-2
3
Sundays Best
G Vazquez-Gomez


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
1
Runaway Beach Chic
L D Martinez








* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thistledown Tip Sheet - September 20
Sep. 19, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 74% of the time at this track


RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
7
Vavite
V Severino


PLACE
12-1
1
Danzing Chick
R Halledeen


SHOW
3-1
5
May Beau
F Salazar Becerra


WILD CARD
2-1
2
Pearlintherough
D Smith





ALTERNATE 1
7-2
3
Fall Campaign
J S Toledo


ALTERNATE 2
9-2
4
Sky
A I Diaz








* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX









RACE #2 $21,700 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET



BEST BET: #4 BLUSHING BETTY









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
4
Blushing Betty
E Barbaran


PLACE
3-1
5
Princess Halime
L A Batista


SHOW
2-1
3
Prospective Forum
F Salazar Becerra


WILD CARD
5-1
2
Ceviche
A Guerere





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
1
Jens Battle
A I Diaz








* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX









RACE #3 $7,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
5
Spin Doctor
D J Haldar


PLACE
5-2
3
Accurate
A I Diaz


SHOW
8-1
8
Classic Mo
G Rodriguez


WILD CARD
4-1
6
Traitor Amongst Us
M Cedillo





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
The Man Can
J S Toledo


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
4
Fu Roo
R Feliciano








* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX









RACE #4 $28,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
3
Miss Easy
A I Diaz


PLACE
2-1
4
Viola
J Loveberry


SHOW
8-1
2
Honorable Woman
L A Batista


WILD CARD
9-2
6
Charlottes Way
L A Gonzalez





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
5
Coromandel
R Bowen


ALTERNATE 2
7-2
1
Immortallove
S Spieth








* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX









RACE #5 $12,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:50 PM ET



BEST BET: #2 FALK









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
2
Falk
R Bowen


PLACE
9-2
6
Misterchilliwilli
R Feliciano


SHOW
3-1
3
Marsico
F Salazar Becerra


WILD CARD
5-2
1
Flawless Cat
J A Bracho





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
4
Fever Dream
A I Diaz


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
5
Napa Dude
A Guerere








* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX









RACE #6 $7,500 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET



BEST BET: #3 BELLAVALENCIA









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
3
Bellavalencia
G Rodriguez


PLACE
2-1
5
Mangorita
A I Diaz


SHOW
5-2
1
Dancing for Money
J S Toledo


WILD CARD
9-2
4
Angels Destiny
H Berrios





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
2
Precision Prado
Y Aviles








* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX









RACE #7 $5,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
5
Calendula
L A Gonzalez


PLACE
5-2
2
Opulent Ways
R Bowen


SHOW
6-1
1
Manhattan Lady
A Guerere


WILD CARD
9-2
4
Sweet Belen
L A Batista





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
6
Courted
G Rodriguez








* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX









RACE #8 $40,100 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
3
Need to Know Basis
G Rodriguez


PLACE
7-2
1
Casual Attire
R Bowen


SHOW
2-1
5
Into Gold
D Smith


WILD CARD
5-1
2
Condemnation
F Salazar Becerra





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
6
Gone in a Flash
E Barbaran


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
4
Blazing Burroughs
J Panaijo








* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 20
Sep. 19, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track


RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
3
Shes a Secret
E Morales


PLACE
3-1
6
Goldblooded
F Arrieta


SHOW
2-1
5
Oath of Allegiance
T Gaffalione


WILD CARD
6-1
2
Dogwoodsmilliejane
R Bejarano





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
1
Tamaras Way
G Corrales


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Social Mandate
D Cannon








* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX









RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
7
Wreck It Ruby
T Heard


PLACE
4-1
5
Choctaw Grace
E Morales


SHOW
5-2
9
Scarlet Miss
R Bejarano


WILD CARD
5-1
4
Dooblay
J Graham





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
6
Puckered
R Gutierrez


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
2
Rose Darling
Y Navas








* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX









RACE #3 $54,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
2
Long Crow
C A Torres


PLACE
7-2
4
Coastal Defense
R Bejarano


SHOW
3-1
6
Master Game
J Graham


WILD CARD
5-2
1
Treaty
F Arrieta





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
7
Sant Antimo
R Santana Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
5
Navy Cross
C J Lanerie








* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX









RACE #4 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
10-1
2
Booster Shot
E Morales


PLACE
20-1
5
Scotch No Rocks
C J Hernandez


SHOW
7-2
4
My Brother Keith
C A Torres


WILD CARD
10-1
3
Spuns Son
D Cannon





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
6
Gordys Label
R Gutierrez


ALTERNATE 2
3-1
8
Creative Way
T Gaffalione








* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX









RACE #5 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-5
10
Stormquist
G Corrales


PLACE
10-1
8
Debt Paid
C A Torres


SHOW
6-1
9
Wecallemfuncoupons
R Gutierrez


WILD CARD
15-1
2
Wauhatchie
J Gilligan





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
5
East From West
C J Lanerie


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
3
Vino Fa Danza
A Achard








* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 8/9/10 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX









RACE #6 $30,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 BEAUXS ARTES









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
7
Beauxs Artes
M Garcia


PLACE
9-2
6
Mean Sue
J Rocco Jr.


SHOW
3-1
2
Mischievous Gal
E Morales


WILD CARD
8-1
9
Candy Kick
G Ashton





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Wiki Lio
F Arrieta


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Mended We Stand
R Bejarano








* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX









RACE #7 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET



BEST BET: #1 COPPOLA









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
1
Coppola
M Garcia


PLACE
5-1
5
Bodenheimer
L Wade


SHOW
5-2
2
Shimmer Me Timbers
A Beschizza


WILD CARD
5-1
4
Vulcan
F Arrieta





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
6
Kavod
T Gaffalione


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Johnny Unleashed
G Corrales








* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX









RACE #8 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
12-1
4
Bromley
C A Torres


PLACE
8-1
9
Retained
R Bejarano


SHOW
6-1
1
Briterdayzahead
C J Lanerie


WILD CARD
4-1
3
Blue Light
F Geroux





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
2
Elite Forces
G Corrales


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
8
Two Eagles River
F Arrieta








* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX









RACE #9 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 UP ON THE EDGE









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
5
Up On the Edge
A Achard


PLACE
5-2
12
Shimmering Allure
B J Hernandez Jr.


SHOW
5-1
4
Promisemeanempire
C A Torres


WILD CARD
12-1
10
Wee Bit O Mischief
M Chuan





ALTERNATE 1
20-1
6
Sterling Luck
J Graham


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
3
Chiquita Reina
G Corrales








* EXACTA: 5-12 BOX, 12-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/12 BOX, 4/10/12 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 20
Sep. 19, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Shes a Secret was a distant second at this level but seems best here. (1) Tamara’s Way should welcome a return to a claimer. (5) Oath of Allegiance drops in class and fits nicely here. (4) Social Mandate adds blinkers and is worth a look. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-5.
3rd race – (1) Treaty has speed from the rail and will be tough to catch here. (7) Sant’ Antimo seeks a third straight win and should be a main contender. (6) Master Game was second in his last two starts and should be in the picture once again. (2) Long Crow should be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-7.
5th race – (10) Stormquist drops into a claimer and looks best in this field. (6) Waldrip is working nicely for his career debut. (1) Notorious Sixohtwo may wake up in a claimer. (5) East from West has showed some speed while training for his debut. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-10.
7th race – (1) Coppola missed by a head at Saratoga and makes amends here. (6) Kavod could perk up on turf. (5) Bodenheimer has speed and could be tough to catch. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6. Doubles: 1-5-6 with 2-3-5-9.
8th race – (2) Elite Forces is undefeated in two starts and can make it three straight here. (5) Giant Mischief exits stakes company and should be the main rival. (9) Retained has been no worse than third in his last four starts and belongs in the exotics. (3) Blue Light returns to a sprint and should be a top contender. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-9.