Thursday 9/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Presque Isle Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#4 Cupid Missed
She flashed some pace and faded late in that second career start, but I bet there is still a little room for better on the front end. She draws well to make a pace trip more difficult for either of the forward players down near the fence. Price might be OK.


#2 Maiden Lane
She has a big claim on top honors here, but I worry that the choice might be attached to her outside the entire way if she tries to have a go for it, and she hasn't yet shown that she's much for passing horses late.


#6 A Rose for Tina
Think there is a way this one sets up well enough for her to rally late while cutting back, but she'd probably need a decent pace battle to get all the way home.


Race Summary
Cupid Missed draws best of the likely forward players in here, and her more committed pace from the outside might at least throw a small wrench into the plans for some of the more logical players.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#4 Chief Crazy Moon
Pace dropper has to deal with a couple other forward players here, but he has been able to clear early in recent starts and was overtaken last out by a guy who went on to win by better than 10 at 2/5, and the runner-up was back to win on top in this space earlier in the week. Might feel a lot tougher in the lane with this kind.


#7 Kenji's Empire
He's likely to be right up on the splits as well in here, but I'm not sure he's going to be at his best if the top choice is able to beat him to the front here. Obvious player sucked me in last time at a short price, but he's really short on excuses at what'll likely be another modest price today.


#2 Gizmo's Mission
He has made a couple of decent middle moves in his career so far, and he can probably get himself in the picture late with another similar rally. He's a really logical player on race shape if the top two go at it.


Race Summary
I gave Chief Crazy Moon a look here earlier this month, but he flashed his typical brief speed and folded behind a monster favorite who won that day. He finds a much softer group on paper today and might stick around better at a still attractive price. I'll also take a second try at adding #3 Piton on a couple of reach tickets -- he's making these mild moves a lot lately and can share at a big price.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Mountain Tree
He should be another decent price today, and he might get a decent kind of tactical trip today in behind a couple potential pace players. He never had a real chance when chasing a winner last out who went slow and unchallenged on the lead the entire way. Expecting better.


#1 Clemson Tiger
He ran a good one when taking a bump late that got the winner taken down in that last start, and he projects for a really cozy trip from the inside draw. Lots to like even as the price gets quite a bit shorter.


#5 Spettacoli
His recent running lines aren't too imposing, but his often one-paced kind of style will probably leave him in another good spot as they turn for home. Wouldn't be a shock on top, but there's not a ton of enthusiasm here for me. Most likely in the gimmicks.


Race Summary
Mountain Tree might get a decent enough race flow upgrade today after trying to finish into a negative race shape last time out. If he can spy the pace and move at the right time, I don't think he's impossible at a midrange price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Penn National - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 GRAEL (9-2)
Well-spotted off claim, projects ideal trip from the rail in repeat bid.


#3 LUCKY RUNNING CAT (7-2)
Ran 1-2 on firm and yielding turf in last three starts.


#5 WARRIOR’S CAUSE (6-1)
Plays catch-me-if-you-can on stretch out in distance.


Race Summary
GRAEL launched a winning 4-wide rally while the favorite was bottled up in traffic, but he padded his turf bankroll to $128k and gets plenty of pace to rally into tonight. Bet to win and place.


Penn National - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#2 BESTSURGARDADDYEVER (5-1)
Validated bullet gate work with solid comeback try in allowance.


#7 REBEL RULER (4-1)
Good first gear, good record at Penn National, re-claimed by Kulp.


#1 SKIMBLE SHANKS (10-1)
Can rally into gimmick wagers at good price from the rail.


Race Summary
In a field loaded with stretch-out sprinters, BESTSUGARDADDYEVER gets the call in his second start after a year layoff and second with Lasix. He ‘finished well’ at 6F, beat 1-1/2 lengths by multiple stakes-placed Andiamo A Firenze (3-11, $305k). Bet to win and place.


Penn National - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#5 SAVE GRACE (5-2)
Been burning serious money, no excuse in this spot for new barn.


#3 COSMOLOGICAL (3-1)
Hit gate, dueled on the turn, held okay when passed at 1/8th pole.


#4 UNCAPTURED GRACE (5-1)
Tries to upstage string of four consecutive in-the-money finishes.


Race Summary
SAVE GRACE, the beaten favorite in 5 of her last 7 starts at various distances, runs for the cheapest claiming tag of her career. She should benefit from a good pace set-up in her first start for new connections. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ls0921zf.pdf&exp=09/23/2023&pds=LS_-_09/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=LS&SAP=FREEPICS)


Lone Star Park - Race 4

Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)



Maiden • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 75 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 7:29P


QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED MAIDENS, COLTS AND GELDINGS TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EYES LIKE AN EAGLE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. SCOTTIE PIPPEN PZ: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. REVOLUTIONEYEZ: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



6

EYES LIKE AN EAGLE

8/5


7/2




5

SCOTTIE PIPPEN PZ

2/1


9/2




4

REVOLUTIONEYEZ

12/1


5/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

LETHAL CORONA BUG

1


10/1

Slow

61


47


6.9


0.0


0.0




2

SAN SEBASTIAN

2


15/1

Average

0


0


3.8


0.0


0.0




3

THRILL AND FURY

3


15/1

Average

0


0


3.9


0.0


0.0




4

REVOLUTIONEYEZ

4


12/1

Slow

87


60


6.4


0.0


0.0




5

SCOTTIE PIPPEN PZ

5


2/1

Average

76


69


4.2


0.0


0.0




6

EYES LIKE AN EAGLE

6


8/5

Fast

77


71


3.5


0.0


0.0




7

VP ROCKET RYON

7


4/1

Slow

62


56


0.0


0.0


0.0







































Unknown Running Style: GERMAKIN (15/1) [Jockey: Duenez Luciano - Trainer: Lewis Arnold].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ind0921zf.pdf&exp=09/23/2023&pds=IND_-_09/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=IND&SAP=FREEPICS)


Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 9

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) 10 Cent QH Only Grand High 5 (Pentafecta - Separate Carryover)



Stakes • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 75 • Purse: $43,197 • Post: 6:18P


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, JOHN DEERE JUVENILE CHALLENGE FINAL S. - FOR REGISTERED QUARTER HORSES, TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. SEE AQHA REGIONAL CHALLENGE SCHEDULE.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CLEAVE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HG FAVORITE ENERGY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. IMMEDIATE : Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. AJ PURE GOLD: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LETZ GO BRANDAN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.



9

CLEAVE

9/2


6/1




6

HG FAVORITE ENERGY

5/2


6/1




7

IMMEDIATE

3/1


7/1




1

AJ PURE GOLD

8/1


7/1




4

LETZ GO BRANDAN

4/1


8/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

AJ PURE GOLD

1


8/1

Slow

72


66


7.8


0.0


0.0




3

FIONA SEIS

3


20/1

Slow

69


61


6.3


0.0


0.0




4

LETZ GO BRANDAN

4


4/1

Average

70


68


5.7


0.0


0.0




5

IZA FAVORITE

5


30/1

Average

60


51


0.0


0.0


0.0




6

HG FAVORITE ENERGY

6


5/2

Fast

74


71


0.0


0.0


0.0




7

IMMEDIATE

7


3/1

Fast

71


66


0.0


0.0


0.0




8

SHIRLEY TWO FOUR

8


30/1

Slow

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0




9

CLEAVE

9


9/2

Fast

72


72


0.0


0.0


0.0




10

LUCKY FAVORITE

10


20/1

Fast

67


55


0.0


0.0


0.0







































Unknown Running Style: JACK D FIRE (20/1) [Jockey: Hunt Aron - Trainer: Raper Ron].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=rp0921zz.htm&exp=09/23/2023&pds=RP_-_09/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=RP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 70

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 QUALITY BLASTOFF 3/1




# 9 SMACKZILLA 4/1




# 4 NIGHT VISION 8/1




My choice for this race is QUALITY BLASTOFF. He has been racing soundly recently while recording very solid speed figures. Looks quite good against this group of horses and should be one of the leaders. With a solid 68 Equibase speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this competition. SMACKZILLA - Had one of the top speed figures of this field in his last race. Must be given a chance given the class of races run as of late. NIGHT VISION - Looks very good to be up on the lead at the first call. A solid 70 avg class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=cd0921zm.htm&exp=09/23/2023&pds=CD_-_09/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=CD&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Churchill Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:25pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $127,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 CANCEL THIS (ML=6/1)
#8 LITTLE MOMBO (ML=8/1)
#3 PISTOL (ML=9/2)
#4 TEN RINGS (ML=20/1)
#10 HIGH CLASS (ML=4/1)


CANCEL THIS - Don't often see a lucrative ROI like +27. This jockey/conditioner duet has done well together over the last twelve months. This filly is almost always on the board. I know the outfit is serious today. The filly gets Lasix for the first time. LITTLE MOMBO - Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to her last clash at Saratoga where she finished sixth on the soft turf. Expect better today. PISTOL - I like to bet on this angle, a pony coming back off a nice outing within the last 30 days. Recent Equibase speed figures show strong pattern of improvement. A repeat of that recent performance on August 26th where she garnered a speed fig of 96 looks lofty enough to win in this race. TEN RINGS - The recent bullet 59.8 work should put this filly on track for today's outing. Last ran at Turfway Park and finished sixth. Reviewing her handicapping information, I see she was close at the finish, within five of the winner. HIGH CLASS - It looks like Torres had to 'know' this filly on August 26th when riding her for the initial time. Back atop again today. This filly is in good physical condition. Ended up third on August 26th. This thoroughbred has increased her speed ratings in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HUNTRESS FOR HIRE (ML=7/2), #11 THE GREAT MAYBE (ML=9/2),

HUNTRESS FOR HIRE - Didn't perform too well last time out. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. THE GREAT MAYBE - No success for this entrant in a short distance event over the last 60 days tells me that this filly is in a formidable spot Should probably pass on this youngster, she hasn't had enough experience to win this kind of race.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LITTLE MOMBO - When a pony has a big edge over the rest of the field in TM Power Rating, I make a bet.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 CANCEL THIS to win at post-time odds of 5/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,8] Box [4,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[3,7,8] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $36



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[7,8] with [3,7,8] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $24



SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:

[3,7,8] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $72

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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=pen0921zm.htm&exp=09/23/2023&pds=PEN_-_09/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=PEN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #1 - Post: 6:00pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 RECYCLE (ML=6/1)
#1 GRAEL (ML=9/2)
#10 RECONVENE (ML=8/1)


RECYCLE - Stand by this horse. No other viable pace gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. Ran in the last race against a much better field at Parx Racing. The move down in the class scale should suit him well. Entered an Allowance race at Parx Racing last out and raced on the soft turf finishing seventh. Expect better right here. GRAEL - This campaigner coming off a good try in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my book. Have to give this race horse a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best speed figures on the turf at this distance. RECONVENE - Looking over this gelding's PPs I see that the last time he tried this trip he got a speed figure that would be good enough to win today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LUCKY RUNNING CAT (ML=7/2), #5 WARRIOR'S CAUSE (ML=6/1), #2 LA PAZ (ML=6/1),

LUCKY RUNNING CAT - Looked like he was in good form on Aug 31st. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. WARRIOR'S CAUSE - Even though victorious in last, didn't finish the way you'd like to see when stepping up to face tougher competition. LA PAZ - The effort last time around the track on Aug 9th probably won't hold up against stronger opponents when they turn for home. Not likely that the speed fig he notched on Aug 9th will hold up in this affair.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - GRAEL - Best average class rating amongst these horses. This mount figures to be tough today.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #7 RECYCLE to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7,10] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,7,10] with [1,7,10] with [1,3,4,7,10] with [1,3,4,7,10] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=del0921zz.htm&exp=09/23/2023&pds=DEL_-_09/21/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/21/2023;TRACK_CODE=DEL&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 21, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 MY JO JO 8/5




# 2 SHE SO COOL 5/1




# 6 PURRFECT DANI 6/1




MY JO JO is the top bet in this race. Put up a strong speed rating last time out. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. Shows strong speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses. SHE SO COOL - Must be considered - I like the figs from the last race. PURRFECT DANI - Must be considered - I like the figs from the last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 21
Sep. 20, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.


RACE #1 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
3
Whatta World
E Morales


PLACE
2-1
2
Scrupulous
T Gaffalione


SHOW
5-1
9
No Violence
R Santana Jr.


WILD CARD
12-1
5
Interception
C J Lanerie





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
8
Summer Dance
F Peterson


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Loveya Loveya More
J Gilligan








* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX









RACE #2 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
5
Astronomico
C A Torres


PLACE
6-1
4
Skypass
L Machado


SHOW
5-1
6
Tiz My Hero
C J Lanerie


WILD CARD
8-1
7
Spin the Boulevard
C A Emigh





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
3
Hope Joes Right
T Gaffalione


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Wauhatchie
J Gilligan








* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX









RACE #3 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
10
Mugen
R Santana Jr.


PLACE
7-2
6
Controlled Temper
T Gaffalione


SHOW
5-1
9
Fundamentally
C A Torres


WILD CARD
6-1
5
West Omaha
F Geroux





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
8
Class Act
G Corrales


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Candy Landy
M Garcia








* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 6/9/10 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX









RACE #4 $75,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:27 PM ET



BEST BET: #6 AINT BROKE









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
6
Aint Broke
C A Torres


PLACE
8-1
8
Thestral
T Gaffalione


SHOW
3-1
4
Mytown Myrules
E Morales


WILD CARD
10-1
7
Steel Racer
G Corrales





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
3
Sad Cafe
C J Lanerie


ALTERNATE 2
4-1
1
Such Sounds
M Garcia








* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX









RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:56 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
9
Gin Gin
F Geroux


PLACE
4-1
4
Perfect Shot
R Santana Jr.


SHOW
8-1
8
Flight to Paris
C A Torres


WILD CARD
10-1
5
Magic Gathering
D Cannon





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
11
Platinum Minit
T Gaffalione


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Miss Harmonic
C J Lanerie








* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX









RACE #6 $127,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
1
Huntress for Hire
L Machado


PLACE
4-1
10
High Class
C A Torres


SHOW
9-2
3
Pistol
F Arrieta


WILD CARD
8-1
8
Little Mombo
M Murrill





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
7
Cancel This
B J Hernandez Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
13
Lakeside Music
V Lebron








* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX









RACE #7 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:54 PM ET



BEST BET: #13 SPEED BIAS









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
13
Speed Bias
T Gaffalione


PLACE
6-1
10
Kings Ovation
M Garcia


SHOW
5-1
9
Masqueparade
L Machado


WILD CARD
6-1
7
Gasoline
G Corrales





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
12
Roman Centurian
J Talamo


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
4
Ethical Judgement
D Cannon








* EXACTA: 13-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 9/10/13 BOX, 7/9/10 BOX









RACE #8 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:23 PM ET



BEST BET: #9 CONCERTED









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
9
Concerted
F Geroux


PLACE
3-1
3
Mo Fight
R Santana Jr.


SHOW
5-1
10
Create Trouble
T Gaffalione


WILD CARD
15-1
5
Spielman
J Graham





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
6
Heros Medal
J A Torres


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Sahalat
G Corrales








* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - September 21
Sep. 20, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track


RACE #1 $15,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
7
No Trust
J D Ramos


PLACE
5-2
6
Sheza Nut
S E Bermudez


SHOW
10-1
4
Mean Elenita
M Anderson


WILD CARD
6-1
1
Empire Sunrise
H Leahey





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Bicarb Betty
A Burgos


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
3
Quite Whimsical
F De La Cruz








* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX









RACE #2 $36,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:41 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 CIBOLO









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
5
Cibolo
E Esquivel


PLACE
9-2
6
Whosforjustice
F De La Cruz


SHOW
3-1
7
Circle Back Jack
R Diaz


WILD CARD
10-1
3
Hard Luck Justice
S E Bermudez





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Hot Pastrami
O Mojica


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
4
Manuelito
A Burgos








* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX









RACE #3 $41,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
2
Backyard Justice
A P Ulloa


PLACE
4-1
7
Killer Hotrod
E E Perez


SHOW
3-1
3
Scenic Justice
S E Bermudez


WILD CARD
15-1
5
Epic the Legend
F De La Cruz





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
4
Musty Red
H Leahey


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
6
Mystery Impact
O Mojica








* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX









RACE #4 $42,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET



BEST BET: #8 CHANDANA









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
8
Chandana
R A Prescott


PLACE
7-2
3
Ekati Flatter
S E Bermudez


SHOW
9-2
1
Image Run
E Esquivel


WILD CARD
8-1
2
Verry Amelia
O Mojica





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
5
Brittanysgldnfaith
M Anderson


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Mintchocolatechip
J D Ramos








* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX









RACE #5 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
9
Englished
E Esquivel


PLACE
8-1
4
Goodbetterbest
M A Perez


SHOW
6-1
11
Shes Magic
K J Asmussen


WILD CARD
12-1
3
A Star for Cora
A Centeno





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
2
Calm Cool
R Diaz


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Swigert
A Lezcano








* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/9/11 BOX, 3/4/11 BOX









RACE #6 $36,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
2
Caribbean Beauty
K J Asmussen


PLACE
7-2
1
Moment to Shine
J Loveberry


SHOW
9-2
7
Sweet Little Lisa
A Centeno


WILD CARD
6-1
5
Angel Express
E Esquivel





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
8
Liturgia
F De La Cruz


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
6
Seachrome
S E Bermudez








* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX









RACE #7 $36,000 ALLOWANCE
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 MISS BEE HAPPY









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
20-1
5
Miss Bee Happy
C J Hernandez


PLACE
7-2
11
La V.
K J Asmussen


SHOW
3-1
3
Numero Seis
E Esquivel


WILD CARD
9-2
8
Caumsett
A Burgos





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Belperron
E T Baird


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
4
Angie From Kulm
J D Ramos








* EXACTA: 5-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/11 BOX, 3/8/11 BOX









RACE #8 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:47 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
2
Rivoli
C J Hernandez


PLACE
7-2
4
Time Andbeyond
R Diaz


SHOW
4-1
6
Runandscore
F De La Cruz


WILD CARD
10-1
3
B Adman
J D Ramos





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
1
Our Majestic
O Mojica


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Mining Camp
C Orm








* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX









RACE #9 $43,197 STAKES
350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:18 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
9
Cleave
L S Martinez


PLACE
20-1
10
Lucky Favorite
G Vazquez-Gomez


SHOW
3-1
7
Immediate
D Villamil Bocanegra


WILD CARD
5-2
6
Hg Favorite Energy
L D Martinez





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
4
Letz Go Brandan
B Candanosa


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
2
Jack D Fire
A Hunt








* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 7/9/10 BOX, 6/7/10 BOX









RACE #10 $29,266 STAKES
400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:46 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
4
Eye Live for Candy
R D Pina


PLACE
5-2
3
One Coldhearted Diva
G Vazquez-Gomez


SHOW
4-1
7
Country Celebration
M Munoz


WILD CARD
10-1
6
Sawyer Strange
L S Martinez





ALTERNATE 1
20-1
1
This Ladys On Fire
F Quintero


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
2
Ec Abella
B Candanosa








* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX









RACE #11 $35,530 DERBY
400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:14 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-5
1
All Night Roc
B Candanosa


PLACE
8-1
2
Aprollific Jess
M Munoz


SHOW
3-1
3
Rogues Last Game
R D Pina


WILD CARD
10-1
5
What Else Is New
F Morin





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
6
Lota Cruising
L S Martinez


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
4
Braveaux
G Vazquez-Gomez








* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - September 21
Sep. 20, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 44% of the time at this track


RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-5
4
Mischief Joke
J Rosario


PLACE
9-2
3
Perliano
M Franco


SHOW
2-1
6
Mamas Dream
I Ortiz Jr.


WILD CARD
20-1
5
Wonder Wonderland
L R Rivera Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
1
Fratellino
T McCarthy


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
2
Lao Way
D Davis








* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX









RACE #2 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:36 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
4
Sheriff Bianco
J L Ortiz


PLACE
7-2
5
Kinetic Sky
M Franco


SHOW
6-1
6
Uncle Moonlight
K Carmouche


WILD CARD
2-1
3
Best Actor
F Prat





ALTERNATE 1
3-1
1
Business Model
I Castillo


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
2
Baby Yoda
J Rosario








* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX









RACE #3 $52,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:07 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 MYSTIC NIGHT









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
7
Mystic Night
M Franco


PLACE
5-1
6
Cut the Cord
K Carmouche


SHOW
5-1
1
Portos
J Castellano


WILD CARD
2-1
5
Lookin At Roses
I Ortiz Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
3
Higher Quality
R R Maragh


ALTERNATE 2
4-1
4
Classic Mark
J Rosario








* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX









RACE #4 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:39 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
2
Kuramata
F Prat


PLACE
9-2
7
Call Me Harry
J Castellano


SHOW
5-1
1A
Mid Day Image
I Ortiz Jr.


WILD CARD
4-1
6
Winfromwithin
M Olver





ALTERNATE 1
3-1
4
Duke of Hazzard
K Carmouche


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
5
Main Event
J R Velazquez








* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX









RACE #5 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:11 PM ET



BEST BET: #3 MATERIAL WITNESS









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
3
Material Witness
M Franco


PLACE
6-1
7
Oolong Hai
J L Ortiz


SHOW
15-1
12
Millie Jean
J Castellano


WILD CARD
9-2
1
Madakets Arrow
J R Velazquez





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
4
You Only Live Once
I Ortiz Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
9
Isola
T McCarthy








* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/7/12 BOX, 1/7/12 BOX









RACE #6 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET



BEST BET: #4 SIX PERCENT









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
4
Six Percent
D Davis


PLACE
9-2
3
Salto de Tigre
I Castillo


SHOW
6-1
5
Durkins Call
M Franco


WILD CARD
5-1
1A
Two Thirty Five
J L Ortiz





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Rocco Strong
K Carmouche


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
7
Burgee
J Castellano








* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX









RACE #7 $102,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:17 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
5
Freedom Trail
J L Ortiz


PLACE
7-2
4
Daunt
J Castellano


SHOW
8-1
3
Good Skate
M Franco


WILD CARD
8-5
8
Francesco Clemente
F Prat





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
1
Exact Estimate
I Ortiz Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
2
Tide of the Sea
K Davis








* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX









RACE #8 $85,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:49 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
5
Perfect Munnings
J L Ortiz


PLACE
7-2
4
Mariachi
K Carmouche


SHOW
9-2
6
Radio Red
J Rosario


WILD CARD
10-1
7
Zeebear
J Lezcano





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
8
Big Engine
M Franco


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
2
Dont Lose Cruz
I Ortiz Jr.








* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX









RACE #9 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
12
Atlantas Acuna
J Castellano


PLACE
4-1
9
Zapruder
I Ortiz Jr.


SHOW
6-1
13
Just for Luck
J Castellano


WILD CARD
15-1
6
Thatsmyboxer
J A Gomez





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
11
Myles
T McCarthy


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
7
Utamaro
M Franco








* EXACTA: 12-9 BOX, 9-13 BOX, 13-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 9/12/13 BOX, 6/9/13 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 21
Sep. 20, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 21
Sep. 20, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Whatta World returns to turf and seems primed for a winning effort. (2) Scrupulous should appreciate a drop into a claimer. (5) Interception could pick this one off in her debut. (9) No Violence is a firster Asmussen who merits attention. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-9.
3rd race – (5) West Omaha is a firster from Cox who seems set for a big effort in her debut. (6) Controlled Temper was second in her debut and is the one to fear. (9) Fundamentally cannot be ignored off a second in her first start. (10) Mugen showed speed and settled for third. Could be tough to catch with the right pace scenario. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-9-10.
5th race – (9) Gin Gin was second in her first try for Cox and gets the nod here. (11) Platinum Minit was hurt by a wide trip and can rebound here. (4) Perfect Shot is an Asmussen firster who appears to have some potential. (8) Flight to Paris seems on edge for a strong effort. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-8-9-11. Doubles: 4-8-9-11 with 1-3-10-11.
6th race – (1) Huntress for Hire cuts back to six furlongs and will be a top contender from the rail. (3) Pistol was second in her last two tries and can complete the exacta again. (10) High Class has enough speed to be a factor throughout. (11) The Great Maybe makes her 2023 debut and is working sharply. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-10-11.
8th race – (3) Mo Fight missed by a neck last time in an improved performance. Gets his diploma today. (10) Create Trouble disappointed last time but can rebound here. (1) Sahalat will benefit from a rail trip. (6) Hero’s Medal could shine at a one-turn mile. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-10.