Wednesday 9/27/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=pid0927zf.pdf&exp=09/29/2023&pds=PID_-_09/27/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/27/2023;TRACK_CODE=PID&SAP=FREEPICS)


Presque Isle Downs - Race 6

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8)



Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 5:15P


(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. HUNTIN' THE RUT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WORLDS ON HIGH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HUNTI N' THE RUT: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). PREGAME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAMINO DE SANTIAGO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



5

WORLDS ON HIGH

5/2


7/2




3

HUNTIN' THE RUT

7/2


7/1




7

PREGAME

9/2


10/1




6

CAMINO DE SANTIAGO

3/1


10/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

HUNTIN' THE RUT

3


7/2

Front-runner

72


71


100.4


64.8


53.8




7

PREGAME

7


9/2

Stalker

79


73


79.0


68.6


62.6




6

CAMINO DE SANTIAGO

6


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

80


70


76.9


77.6


70.6




1

MAGIC WIZARD

1


6/1

Trailer

78


70


81.0


68.2


60.7




5

WORLDS ON HIGH

5


5/2

Trailer

90


84


73.8


85.8


83.8




4

MOCA MONSTER

4


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

71


60


70.2


49.2


37.2




2

DIAMONDHARD STONE

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


58


56.3


48.2


37.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=cd0927zf.pdf&exp=09/29/2023&pds=CD_-_09/27/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/27/2023;TRACK_CODE=CD&SAP=FREEPICS)


Churchill Downs - Race 3

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (3-4-5) Pick 4 (Races 3-4-5-6) / Super Hi-5



Claiming $10,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 1:43P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * IMPROBABLE STORY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the di stance/surface. JOB SECURITY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. YAK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BREADMAN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).



3

IMPROBABLE STORY

12/1


4/1




2

JOB SECURITY

5/1


7/1




1

YAK

4/1


7/1




8

BREADMAN

9/2


9/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

COMMANDER CARL

4


3/1

Front-runner

82


80


66.8


66.3


57.3




3

IMPROBABLE STORY

3


12/1

Alternator/Front-runner

104


88


82.8


71.6


62.6




1

YAK

1


4/1

Stalker

85


77


60.4


72.8


66.3




8

BREADMAN

8


9/2

Alternator/Stalker

83


75


74.8


70.8


64.8




2

JOB SECURITY

2


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

89


84


56.0


78.0


69.5




7

CODE RUNNER

7


7/2

Alternator/Non-contender

101


93


57.6


66.2


59.2




5

MAD ADAM

5


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

87


78


56.2


69.0


52.5




9

KEEN ON YOU

9


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

80


80


55.6


65.6


54.6




6

TO KALON

6


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

80


79


44.6


63.5


48.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ajx0927zz.htm&exp=09/29/2023&pds=AJX_-_09/27/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/27/2023;TRACK_CODE=AJX&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Speed Index Race - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 80 AND UNDER.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 WAVIN BAC ATYA 3/1




# 1 JOE CHECKERS 8/5




# 4 PRITTY COLD 5/2




WAVIN BAC ATYA is my choice. Is a very solid contender based on numbers put up lately under today's conditions. Ought to be given consideration based on the decent Equibase speed fig earned in the last race. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. JOE CHECKERS - He has a good opportunity in this race as trainer, Pascoe, has solid win clip with horses going this distance. Can't overlook the connections here, a 22 winning percentage, one of the strongest at getting into the winner's circle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=mnr0927zm.htm&exp=09/29/2023&pds=MNR_-_09/27/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/27/2023;TRACK_CODE=MNR&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,100 Class Rating: 73

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 AMES MISTER (ML=8/1)
#2 CRACK THE MOON (ML=3/1)
#5 CAJUN MANDATE (ML=4/1)


AMES MISTER - The Oct 27th race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour was at a class level of (80). Dropping down the ladder based on class a significant amount, so he should be in a good spot. The recent bullet 48.0 work should put this gelding on track for today's outing. CRACK THE MOON - Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this horse, I think his answer would be Mountaineer Park. This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter trip and should aid his chances to win. Look at this pattern of improvement. 50/66/73 are the last three speed figs. CAJUN MANDATE - I think the shorter distance will help this colt stay the distance. Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +120. This rider/trainer pair has done well together over the last twelve months. Coming off a fifth place finish at Mountaineer Park, some may pass this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good morning line odds today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PITCH DARK (ML=5/2), #6 AS DE ORO COCO (ML=6/1), #3 THREE MILE LIMIT (ML=8/1),

PITCH DARK - Speed kills. Plenty of speed in this clash compromises this horse's chances. August 27th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. AS DE ORO COCO - This gelding earned a speed rating in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event. THREE MILE LIMIT - Speed kills. Plenty of early speed in this race compromises this horse's chances. Recorded a common speed fig last out in a $4,000 Claiming race on September 13th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 AMES MISTER to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger LakesPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=fl0927zz.htm&exp=09/29/2023&pds=FL_-_09/27/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/27/2023;TRACK_CODE=FL&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17200 Class Rating: 65

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 MATT DOYLE 5/1




# 3 LUCKY MUCHO MAN 7/2




# 4 TUNNEL VISION 2/1




MATT DOYLE looks solid to best this field. Has respectable Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this competition. Could beat this group given the 64 speed rating put up in his last outing. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run recently. LUCKY MUCHO MAN - Is a definite contender - given the 66 speed fig from his most recent race. With a reliable 55 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. TUNNEL VISION - He has to be given consideration given the solid speed numbers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=del0927zm.htm&exp=09/29/2023&pds=DEL_-_09/27/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/27/2023;TRACK_CODE=DEL&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Delaware Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 46

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 APRIL'S GOLD (ML=6/1)
#6 RAIN OF BLESSING (ML=3/1)


APRIL'S GOLD - This trainer has an ROI of +149 with horses first time out. You'll be making money right and left by turning your betting money onto this jockey/conditioner combination. This 1st timer has been getting primed in the morning at Delaware Park, a good sign. Ashby adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a significant improvement. RAIN OF BLESSING - This mare is in nice condition, having run a strong race on Aug 30th, finishing second. Dropped in class last time out, running against the same type today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PROVIDING (ML=9/5), #4 SK'S HEART (ML=4/1), #5 PEACE PACT (ML=8/1),

PROVIDING - Hasn't raced or had any workouts since September 3rd. Not much value on this chalk horse. SK'S HEART - Showed very little in the last event. Really no reason to expect any improvement today. PEACE PACT - Couldn't make up ground at any point on Sep 13th. Hard to wager on this time around at the expected odds.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - APRIL'S GOLD - My main man Solo Steve turned me onto betting certain handlers with first timers. Ashby is currently on my list.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#8 APRIL'S GOLD is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#3 Suppose You Dream
The barn has been doing some sneaky good work so far this season, and they've sent some livewires on the main track. Price should be right to find out if they can strike in this kind of spot.


#4 Kitter Kat
Pedigree suggests the surface switch might not hold her back much, and she moved forward nicely in that second start when getting around two turns. Still, not sure I'd be thrilled to be here at the 4/1 ML price.


#5 It'll Do
He's pretty logical in here with one of his better tries, and he has already shown some ability on the lawn. He should be in a great spot turning for home and wouldn't surprise from there.


Race Summary
Suppose You Dream should be a fair price for a team that has been sending out some interesting runners at solid prices so far this season, and maybe he's ready to make some noise out of the box. Get a look on the track.


Remington Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#9 Accelerate Judy
Her local debut went well when she rolled by better than 10 on the main track, and she ran well in her only career turf try back at Lone Star in June. Think she's drawn great to force the issue from out here.


#8 Just Push Send
Think she's one of many with some claim on this, and she probably has some room to bounce back while returning to the turf. Toss that last one and she's there.


#3 Salt N Lime
Wouldn't argue with anyone who landed here with another good trip likely waiting this one from close range, and I really like how she has shown some ability to relax and finish on the turf.


Race Summary
Accelerate Judy gets a pretty solid lean for me in the finale, as she classed up well with the locals when romping at 4/5 and should be able to land a dreamy pressing/spying kind of trip from the high draw.


Remington Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 Shacked Stateside
Pace should appreciate getting back on the grass in this one, and I think she's maybe quick enough to control the tempo without too much trouble in here. Better stuff would do.


#7 Gray Zone
Honest finisher has had a lot of chances to land one in those running lines on her page, so I would want a fair price to stick with her in this spot when she might be along too late again. Obvious late threat.


#2 Candy Tap
She's a little cheap on paper for these, but she has a little bit of pace and could presumably move up a bit on the switch to turf. Wouldn't make me fall out of my seat.


Race Summary
Shacked Stateside has some pretty solid turf sprint tries on her page, and she seems like the most committed forward player lined up in here. Guessing she'll be tough on the engine in the opener.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 SCOOT ALONG (7-2)
Good recovery from troubled start in well-bet debut for 20-percent 2yo barn.


#3 PEGGY’S WAY (5-1)
Second after a half-mile in all three starts, wears blinkers for the first time.


#8 MA RAE’S GIRL (5-2)
O’Neill firster is sure to draw attention off long series of works at Keeneland.


Race Summary
SCOOT ALONG, rated back after a slow start, had a lively pace to rally into but finished well for third, nonetheless, when angled out in the stretch. She went off as the favorite in her debut and the race winner tested stakes company next out. Bet to win and place.


Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#6 OCEAN SPIRIT (5-2)
Ran scare into odds-on stablemate in return, gets Lasix again.


#7 RUTH OF JUDAH (8-1)
Aided when faves bumped in stretch, but winner repeated next out.


#1 RUBY TAP (7-2)
Dueled to stretch in first two starts, shortens up off bullet workout.


Race Summary
OCEAN SPIRIT ran to her Keeneland workouts in her seasonal debut, launching a late rally for second after nine months away. She couldn’t catch her 3-to-5 stablemate in a crowded field but figures tough with a duplicate effort. Play a 6-ALL exacta.


Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#11 GREEWHIZ (6-1)
Backstretch gains in first two starts for 17-percent route-to-sprint barn.


#10 SPECIALTY ACT (4-1)
Ran second to 2-1 firster while 5-wide in debut, draws post 10.


#1 POP THE CORK (7-2)
Has speed and the rail, held for minor awards in last two starts.


Race Summary
GREEWHIZ returns to a sprint for his third start and is a good value play off his debut at 6F. He advanced 4-wide on the backstretch, hooked 7-2 pace setter POP THE CORK under a hard drive for the stretch run and faded. He made another backstretch move at one mile in his second start but couldn’t sustain. Bet to win and place.