Thursday 9/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Presque Isle Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 Brooklyn Girlee
Think she has some appeal in the local debut after bouncing back last out off the modest Saratoga run. She's probably fast enough to keep in the frame early from out here and makes a lot of sense.


#2 No Tappin Out
Think he has a right to be tough in here while racing off the bench, as that Turfway Park debut back in January was pretty solid when he ran on late to land second. Threat, especially if a couple of the potential forward players keep things honest up top.


#4 Accept the Outcome
She's another one with a claim on this in what feels like a pretty tough little spot for the local level. She rallied well on the turf last out but has also shown some ability from closer to the pace, and that versatility gives her rider some options to adapt as this unfolds.


Race Summary
Brooklyn Girlee might be a decent fit with these and has the right kind of style to find a favorable trip from the wide draw. Hoping the presence of a few interesting players on paper will keep the price playable.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#6 Beryl Racer
She should appreciate the move away from Kentucky Downs and the class relief while in for a tag for the first time, and she has at least shown some ability to get past horses which makes her really dangerous in a race full of runners who stop late.


#3 Two Hearted
She got a trip to Kentucky out of a couple decent efforts here to start her career, and I think the Matejka barn probably has this one locked down with one of these top two.


#8 Warrior Bernice
Get a look at her on the track and tote, as she's not meeting a whole lot in this debut run and wouldn't need a huge effort to make some noise or even land this. Wouldn't surprise.


Race Summary
Beryl Racer's two-back start is the key here for me, as she draws outside of a bunch of horses who have shown little interest in kicking home late, and I think a well-timed finishing move gets her home. If not, her more tactical stablemate Two Hearted makes a lot of sense, too.


Presque Isle Downs - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Digital Footprint
Think he's got just enough positional pace to settle off the few forward players today while still getting the jump on a couple of really logical finishers. Could see the price being fair enough.


#1 Guaco
I think he's supposed to win this on paper after having his three-race winning streak broken last out, and he definitely benefits if the more committed pace players all show up a bit.


#6 Fuel the Bern
He steps up after handling cheaper in both of those last two, but he was gifted the lead last out and probably has some company today. Not impossible while in good form, but I'm not sure I take his last at full face value.


Race Summary
Wasn't quite sure where #8 County Court fits in here, but he probably belongs on any wider tickets. Digital Footprint has some midrange price appeal with a lot of one-paced kind of finishing efforts on his page -- that sounds bad, but I think that kind of style might land him a pretty dreamy run of the race here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 DRIFTING WEST (9-2)
Figures tough on best, but last two Remington starts weren’t among them.


#1 ROYALLY (5-1)
Steady check getter can make good use of his speed from the rail in this spot.


#5 FOREVAMO (4-1)
Rallied for minor awards in last four starts but remained winless since 2021.


Race Summary
DRIFTING WEST finished second in four of his last eight starts on dirt with at least a month off between starts. He drops in class off a dull try at Remington but still looms a major threat at a proven distance. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-6 exacta box.


Remington Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#5 FULLY FUNDED (12-1)
Live price play in pace-less race; dam excelled on the grass.


#6 GRACE’S HANK (4-1)
Followed move on winning fave, ran third in crowded debut.


#9 ILLUSTRATOR (5-1)
Draws outside for high-percentage first-out barn, watch odds.


Race Summary
FULLY FUNDED was unhurried in a well-bet debut sprint on the main track but could be forwardly placed a long way on the stretch-out in distance and switch to the turf. His dam, Exchange Funds, won three times – including a stakes race – on the Belmont Park lawn. Bet to win and place and play a 5,6/5,6,9/ALL trifecta.


Remington Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#1 BECKY’S TATOO (8-1)
Regained winning confidence in first main-track start for barn, now 5-13 on dirt.


#7 SUPER WONDER GIRL (5-2)
Won at Oaklawn, Churchill and Ellis to top $200k in 6F earnings.


#5 ROSY EDGE (5-1)
Idle two months since Diodoro claim, broke maiden at Santa Anita.


Race Summary
BECKY’S TATOO changed tactics on the class drop and responded with a 5-length, wire-to-wire victory at today’s distance. The race timed faster than a nw/3 allowance for Oklahoma breds on the same card. The price is right for a win and place bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles TownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ct0928zf.pdf&exp=09/30/2023&pds=CT_-_09/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=CT&SAP=FREEPICS)


Charles Town - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 2-3) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)



Allowance • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $28,400 • Post: 7:30P


FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MAKIN' GOLD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAKIN' GOLD: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HARDL Y EVER BETTER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TURTLE DOVE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.



3

MAKIN' GOLD

5/2


4/1




4

HARDLY EVER BETTER

9/5


9/2




2

TURTLE DOVE

10/1


8/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

MAKIN' GOLD

3


5/2

Front-runner

73


70


82.8


68.0


60.0




4

HARDLY EVER BETTER

4


9/5

Front-runner

70


69


74.8


63.6


59.6




2

TURTLE DOVE

2


10/1

Front-runner

67


58


72.4


59.8


49.8




6

TEACHINTHERELEASE

6


2/1

Stalker

72


70


68.8


65.0


60.0




5

JUBA BOUND

5


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

75


67


56.0


64.2


58.7




1

REATA'S CASTLE

1


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

76


67


45.4


57.4


48.9

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=cmr0928zf.pdf&exp=09/30/2023&pds=CMR_-_09/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=CMR&SAP=FREEPICS)


Camarero - Race 1

Exacta / Daily Double 1-2



Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 48 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 2:45P


FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GREY CAFE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GREY CAFE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PICU SPEED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SON QUITAO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



1

GREY CAFE

4/1


7/2




3

PICU SPEED

5/1


6/1




5

SON QUITAO

10/1


7/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

GREY CAFE

1


4/1

Front-runner

42


41


36.8


36.8


32.3




6

COMPASIVO

6


2/1

Alternator/Stalker

35


33


28.4


31.3


24.3




3

PICU SPEED

3


5/1

Alternator/Trailer

56


44


44.4


31.0


26.5




5

SON QUITAO

5


10/1

Alternator/Trailer

49


41


42.6


38.0


32.5




4

CAPITAN PIZARRO

4


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

33


22


31.7


20.7


9.7




2

EMPRENDEDOR

2


7/2

Alternator/Non-contender

29


27


23.4


20.7


12.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ls0928zz.htm&exp=09/30/2023&pds=LS_-_09/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=LS&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 93

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. TOTAL EARNINGS 2022/2023 PREFERRED.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 EYE WILL DECIDE 9/5




# 4 THE KINGS HORSE 5/1




# 5 WL MYLIPSHURTREALBAD 4/1




EYE WILL DECIDE is the best wager in this race. Guzman has a solid 25 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Looks strong versus this group of animals and ought to be one of the front-runners. Should expect a formidable attempt with the class drop. THE KINGS HORSE - He has garnered formidable figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this field. Garnered a very good speed fig last time out. WL MYLIPSHURTREALBAD - Could beat this field given the 87 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in his last outing. Has been constatntly running well as of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=pid0928zm.htm&exp=09/30/2023&pds=PID_-_09/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=PID&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 TWO HEARTED (ML=6/1)
#8 WARRIOR BERNICE (ML=7/2)
#6 BERYL RACER (ML=4/1)


TWO HEARTED - Great chance for this racer. Big late speed and should have good position. The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Matejka. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This filly is tops in EPS (earnings per start). Check out this thoroughbred in the post parade. WARRIOR BERNICE - This jock and handler's horses have been generating a lucrative ROI. It don't take a university education like someone like my buddy Brain has to figure this one out. We have a first timer with a trainer (Girten) who is wonderful taking horses out for the first time. First-timer has works over the Presque Isle Downs strip, which is always a plus. BERYL RACER - Filly is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a good performance today. Just look at her recent speed rating, 58. That one fits well in this group. Maiden is switching to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to break maiden.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HOT MOCHA (ML=9/2), #4 Z INDY LINDY (ML=5/1), #1 NOW I'M HERE (ML=8/1),

Z INDY LINDY - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last two races around the track. Finished seventh in her most recent performance with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field. NOW I'M HERE - Couldn't close ground at all on September 10th. Hard to wager on this time at the expected odds.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #3 TWO HEARTED to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [6,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6,8] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[3,6,8] with [3,6,8] with [1,3,4,6,8] with [1,3,4,6,8] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=tdn0928zm.htm&exp=09/30/2023&pds=TDN_-_09/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=TDN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,400 Class Rating: 51

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 FAST AS FAST CAN B (ML=8/1)
#5 YOU'RE OUT (ML=4/1)


FAST AS FAST CAN B - This horse could be tough this race, especially since Halledeen rode in the last race and now should be acquainted with this one. As the only speedball in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. This entrant brings in a lot of money per race. I believe he can increase that total in today's race. YOU'RE OUT - Faced tougher last out at Thistledown. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of contenders. Look for this gelding to show better in today's race. Last race at Thistledown finishing fourth on a track listed as good is no indication of his true talent.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AFLEET O ME (ML=2/1), #6 KETTLE KING (ML=3/1), #1 CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS (ML=5/1),

AFLEET O ME - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment fulfilled once in a while. KETTLE KING - No victories for this racer at Thistledown. CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS - Hard to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to land in the money though. A bit of a lackluster effort when this gelding finished fifth. This racer ran a mediocre speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will likely suffer defeat today running that figure.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FAST AS FAST CAN B - I play this angle all the time. Top Power Rating and morning line odds of at least 5/1.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #3 FAST AS FAST CAN B on the win end if we get at least 9/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big APURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=baq0928zz.htm&exp=09/30/2023&pds=BAQ_-_09/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=BAQ&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $90000 Class Rating: 93

OUTER TURF FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 SACRED RHYME 7/2




# 7 RIGHT TO WIN (IRE) 9/5




# 9 QUALITY CHIC 4/5




SACRED RHYME has a quite good shot to take this race. Reason to like this colt as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Put up a competitive speed rating last time out. May best this group here, showing very good figures of late. RIGHT TO WIN (IRE) - He should be given a chance given the competitive speed figures. Always tough to beat Brown and Prat working together, winning 19 percent of their races. QUALITY CHIC - The speed fig of 94 from his latest contest looks solid in here.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs - Race 6

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Super Hi-5


Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up• CR: 86 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 7:25P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. TRICOLOUR is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TRICOLOUR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CURLIN S INCHARGE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WASHINGTON'S UNION: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Hor se has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



6

TRICOLOUR

4/1


7/2




1

CURLINS INCHARGE

3/1


9/2




3

WASHINGTON'S UNION

9/2


8/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

GOLDEN FLASH

4


7/2

Front-runner

78


56


64.0


62.8


52.3




1

CURLINS INCHARGE

1


3/1

Alternator/Front-runner

87


82


59.1


66.3


62.8




6

TRICOLOUR

6


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

80


75


60.6


75.6


70.6




7

GO CATS

7


4/1

Trailer

85


59


59.7


62.0


56.0




2

EXEMPLIFIED

2


10/1

Trailer

0


0


29.4


56.9


43.4




3

WASHINGTON'S UNION

3


9/2

Alternator/Trailer

80


64


64.0


66.9


59.4




5

SILVER RALEIGH

5


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


59.6


61.5


53.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $29,400 Class Rating: 86

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 BOSS E BOOGS (ML=5/1)
#5 MARCHED (ML=12/1)


BOSS E BOOGS - This horse fits one of my favorite angles. A thoroughbred that has a gate work since his last race and gets blinkers on for today's race. That signals to me that the connections are looking for improvement. My pals and I have made dough playing ponies with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same.MARCHED - He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. A win percentage like 33 is tremendous for any jockey/handler pair. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid contest on September 15th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JUBA'S HAT TRICK (ML=8/5), #2 PAYMENGOLD (ML=2/1), #6 LORD OF CORK (ML=9/2),

JUBA'S HAT TRICK - 8/5 is not priced right for any entrant in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance race recently.PAYMENGOLD - Can't really be sure that the recent speed rating of 82 is true since it was garnered on an off track. LORD OF CORK - Didn't look so hot last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's race.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BOSS E BOOGS - On a tight track, my statistics say the advantage goes to the early pace setter in posts 1 thru 4. That's the situation we have here, so take a good look at this gelding.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #4 BOSS E BOOGS to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at ThistledownAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17400 Class Rating: 51

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 FAST AS FAST CAN B 8/1




# 1 CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS 5/1




# 4 AFLEET O ME 2/1




I lean toward FAST AS FAST CAN B for this event and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. Recently Halledeen has been scorching which may give the edge to this gelding. I like Halledeen on this gelding to give him a formidable chance to hit the wire first. Have to sense that this entrant will do well following the quick turnaround. CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Radosevich running at this distance are the best in this group. Recent figures for the rider - 17 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses. AFLEET O ME - When a trainer brings any equine back this soon it is a positive sign. Could beat this group given the 57 Equibase speed fig earned in his last outing.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race TrackAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 26

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 116 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 WILMA MY LOVE 10/1




# 2 ABUELA CUCA 5/1




# 9 CORPULENTA 4/1




WILMA MY LOVE has a decent shot to take this contest and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. Ramos has her trained soundly to break promptly out of the gate. The class figure of today's race is much lower than her last contest. Ramos has a solid 33 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. ABUELA CUCA - Look for a much stronger effort with the drop. Her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone makes you take a look at her. CORPULENTA - This filly has some longshot handicapping angles I like to play. Her chances to prove victorious are much better today facing this easier group.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

Delaware Park - Race 3

$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / $1 Double / .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-5) .50 MIDDLE Pick 4 (Races 3-6)


Claiming $6,250 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 •Purse: $14,000 • Post: 1:30P


(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 28, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DESI'S REWARD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DESI'S REWARD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has t he highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



7

DESI'S REWARD

8/1


5/2






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

DESI'S REWARD

7


8/1

Front-runner

68


56


78.6


56.2


51.2




6

CATALENA

6


4/1

Stalker

56


50


63.0


50.1


40.1




3

EARLEY ROSE

3


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

67


65


61.6


54.2


47.2




1

PRUSSIAN BLUE

1


15/1

Alternator/Stalker

63


58


34.8


45.6


38.6




2

MERGER OF EQUALS

2


2/1

Alternator/Trailer

60


55


58.6


46.6


35.1




8

DANCE STEP

8


3/1

Alternator/Trailer

70


69


40.8


54.0


47.5




5

DUNE JUMPER

5


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

53


63


65.3


31.7


17.7




4

SUZY Q THE QUEEN

4


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

53


55


51.9


33.4


23.4

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 5:29pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 ARDEN'S ASSAULT (ML=5/1)
#5 JACKIE'S SPIRIT (ML=2/1)
#1 ATHENAIS (ML=5/2)


ARDEN'S ASSAULT - Faced tougher last time out at Kentucky Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. This horse picks up a lot of dough per race around the track. Number one in this race. JACKIE'S SPIRIT - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a high winning percent, right around 33. ATHENAIS - This jockey and handler's animals have been generating a lucrative ROI.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF (ML=4/1), #7 FAST GAL (ML=6/1),

SUMMER OF MISCHIEF - Just cannot play this vulnerable equine. Didn't show me anything in the last race or on November 25th. This horse doesn't have a winning temperament. Always finishes close, but no cigar. FAST GAL - 6/1 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event lately.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #4 ARDEN'S ASSAULT on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [1,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:

None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 14


3
3
ALWAYS A VAVOOM
9/5
Noble, Dan - 22
500.48


4
4
MR DISOMMA
5/2
Page, Chris - 15
497.73


8
8
NEVADA VACATION
12/1
Smith, Tyler - 13
497.50


7
7
CAPTAIN DOLMIO N
12/1
Galliers, Brady - 10
464.94


10
10
LA ROCKIN SAMPSON
20/1
Hanners, Austin - 8
462.55


5
5
ASHLEY LOCAZ N
12/1
Mccown, Cameron - 10
459.00


1
1
CAPTAIN INCOME
9/2
Miller, Brett - 14
454.62


6
6
MANAMONGSTBOYS
20/1
Widger, Sam - 13
451.92


9
9
COMBATANT
20/1
Hall, Tony - 17
447.67


2
2
OLLIES ROCKIN
15/1
Smith, Trevor - 9
444.57

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's PhiladelphiaAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 4 - Post: 1:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 68 - Purse:$11700 - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES PREFERRED NON WINNERS 2 PM LIFETIME AE: NON WINNERS $20,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERRED


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 5 DISTANCE 20/1




# 2 CANTABS BIG BANG 6/1




# 4 I'M OUT 8/5





Hey, listen up! DISTANCE is the knowledgeable bet if you like to win may be overlooked at 20/1 on the line. Pace ratings fit the bias well here at Harrah's Philadelphia, look for this one to get the victory. Have to back a solid standardbred coming out of the Harrah's Philadelphia 5 position. The win percent is exemplary, way above normal. CANTABS BIG BANG - 76 percent of the time this trainer and horse combo end up in the top three. Big players here. I'M OUT - Di Domenico knows this race horse well. Exemplary in the money history when starting as a team. Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 70 TrackMaster Speed Rating.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Meadows

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 9


4
4
FAWN DE ONE
15/1
Mcneight, Robert - 9
351.30


5
5
MOLLY PITCHER
9/1
Myers, Christian - 4
347.47


6
6
TSM PRINCE TRISTAN
2/1
Indof, Jeremy - 11
345.13


3
3
SIX TO WON
3/1
Killeen, Jack - 6
338.24


1
1
MISSION STATEMENT
15/1
Brown, Brady - 8
320.98


8
8
TOUR DE FORCE
20/1
Monti, Drew - 8
307.39


9
9
FRANK THE TANK
7/2
Zendt, Brian - 8
300.20


2
2
SHOOTFORTHESTARS
20/1
Christman, Joelene - 0
291.52


7
7
SUNNY N SHARE
10/1
Merriman, Aaron - 16
283.82

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft RacewayAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 12 - Post: 10:55 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$9500 - MARYLAND PREFERRED WINNERS OF 5 PM RACES OR $50,000 LIFETIME BUT NOT MORE THAN 7 PM RACES LIFETIME ROSECROFT TRACKMAN SELECTIONS: 7-8-1-4 DRIVER CHOICES J. ROBERTS - 8 OVER 2,3,4


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 4 LYONS SPIRIT 8/1




# 7 LOUIE THE LOOPER 5/2




# 6 ALWAYS A LOOK 4/1





Look no further than LYONS SPIRIT as the wager in this one and the payoff could be huge based on that 8/1 morning line. The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name on a restaurant menu. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager. Has formidable speed ratings and unquestionably has to be thought of for a wager this time. Been performing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 84). LOUIE THE LOOPER - Take a look at this standardbred's average speed ranking of 89 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a great wager. This contender looks strong considering the high class numbers. Don't throw out of any exotics. ALWAYS A LOOK - The handicapping group saw this horse's name on a tv show. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Toronto w/Bassitt -180 over NY Yankees

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4UThursday Free Selection: Miami Marlins/New York Mets over 7 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 SportsThursday's Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays - 175

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Thursday Baseball Selection From Lee
TEXAS w/Montgomery +103

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Thursday Free Play
Seattle Gilbert -125 MLB

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Teyas SportsFREE PICK 9/28/23 MLB ARIZONA -153

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take St Louis +170

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, September 28, 2023

CFB
103. Mid Tenn / W.Ky OVER 60 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
CFB
103. Mid Tenn / W.Ky OVER 60 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the Miami Marlins -135 over NY Mets

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday :Take MIAMI/NY METS OVER the total of 7.5 runs

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 118-82 run THURS: Blue Jays w/ Bassitt-170

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Thursday: KANSAS CITY (Ragans) +105 over Detroit

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for Thursday
Take the Baltimore Orioles (MLB)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR THURSDAY!
MLB St.Louis/Milwaukee UNDER the total of 7.5 runs!

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: TEXAS/SEATTLE UNDER the total of 7.5 runs

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic SportsThursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Philadelphia Phillies

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Sharp BettorSharpBettor FREE Play THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
FREE
CFB
107. Jax St -6.5 (5 PT / 8 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye SportsThursday's Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers - 185

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from The Last CallThursday's Free Play: (957) Chicago Cubs + 122

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Thursday: Toronto Blue Jays - 175

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Thursday
Milwaukee Brewers (MLB)

[ConleyPicks]

Dan Kaiser

I like the twins to roll in this one. The Athletics are just going through the motions and they have been hoping the season would finish for a while now. They have the worst record in baseball and have been giving lesser-known pitchers starts. The twins will be going with Sonny Gray on the mound, as they look to fine-tune things for the playoffs. He has posted an outstanding 2.80 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his starts this season. Luis Medina gave up six runs over five innings in his most recent start. The Twins have won seven of their past 10 games, while the Athletics have lost eight of their past 10 games. The Twins have won nine of their past 10 matchups overall. The Twins are the only team averaging over six runs per game this month. The Twins should be able to put up multiple runs off the A's starter and pen. Gray will not give up much. lay the 1.5 runs on the Twins.

Play on Minnesota. Minus 1.5 runs. This is a free-play

[ConleyPicks]

ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven 1* MLB Annihilator.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 overall. The Diamondbacks are 10-0 in the last 10 meetings.

[ConleyPicks]

John Ryan

Detroit vs Kansas City



Comerica Park, Detroit



3:30 PM EST



8-UNIT BEST BET on the Tigers using the money line

Betting on home teams using the money line in games played after the all-star break and facing a foe that has won 45% or fewer of their games and has been hot recently winning six of their past eight games has produced a 20-4 SU record averaging a -142 wager and earning a 52% ROI and a 19-5 run line record averaging a -110 wager and earning a 45% ROI spanning the past five seasons.

So, consider betting this game with 6-Unit son the money line and 2-Unit son the -1.5-run line. The previous game from yesterday in which the Tiger’s Miguel Cabrera hit his 511th career home run, will resume at 1:10 EST today as they enter the fifth inning.

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Atletico Madrid+115

*All Soccer picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*

[ConleyPicks]

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Red Sox+134

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Red Sox+134

No analysis provided.

[ConleyPicks]

Will Rogers

Free Play: Red Sox/Orioles Over 7.5 -105

Sale hates Baltimore. In three starts against the Orioles this season, he's allowed 6, 5 and 7 earned runs. He went only 4, 5 and 3 innings. That's 18 earned runs in 12 innings. Final scores were 9-8, 4-5 (both h2h against Kremer) and 12-13. Six of Sale's past seven starts against Baltimore have produced at least eight runs. Kremer has a 6.40 ERA and 1.896 WHIP his last three. His past five starts have all produced at least nine runs. This number is low. Go with the Over.

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Williams

1* on Penguins-220 (NHL)

[ConleyPicks]

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Mets+119

[ConleyPicks]

AAA Sports

1* FREE PLAY Cubs RUNLINE.

We've played on Chicago on the runline option in each of the last two games, and once again we feel that the desperate visiting side offers great value here to once again be competitive. The Cubs won the opener outright, then lost yesterday's contest by a score of 7-6, delivering the goods on the runline option. The Braves need a win to lock down the No. 1 seed, while Chicago needs a win to keep pace for a spot in the playoffs. The starting pitching matchup favors the visitors though, with Marcus Stroman (10-8, 3.88 ERA) having a clear advantage in our eyes over counterpart AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.57.) Consider Chicago on the runline on Thursday night!

AAA Sports

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE-3.5 -103 for our Thursday Free play. Tulsa is coming off a big win at Northern Illinois to improve to 2-2 and it looks to build on that. The Golden Hurricane two losses have come against Washington and Oklahoma which are both undefeated and ranked and that has led to a schedule ranked No. 18 in the country. The offense has not been great because of that but Tulsa can turn that around here, especially in the running game. It is averaging 170.5 ypg on 3.7 ypc which is far from great but they finally square off against a defense with holes as Tempe is allowing 195.2 ypg on 4.9 ypc. In comparison, their last three games have come against teams allowing 3.6, 3.6 and 2.7 ypc. While the passing game has tossed 10 interceptions, Temple has picked off only one pass. The Owls are also 2-2 but their wins have come against Norfolk St. of the FCS and Akron, one of the worst teams in the FBS currently ranked at No. 148 overall. Temple was supposed to make strides in the passing game behind E.J. Warner, son of former Rams quarterback Kurt Warner, but he has struggled to find any rhythm as he has completed only 53.2 percent of his passes for 1,000 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tulsa passing defense has not been good but facing Washington and Oklahoma will make most teams look bad. Temple has played only one road game and it was bottled up at Rutgers, scoring just one touchdown and generating only 298 yards of offense. Play (106) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

[ConleyPicks]

Vic Duke

Free Play: Western Kentucky -5.5 -110
MTS/Western Kentucky 7:30pm Thursday: Western Kentucky has won this matchup in consecutive years SU/ATS, and we'll look for the third to be a charm for the Hilltoppers Thursday night. MTS has taken on a tough schedule (Missouri/Alabama) but sloppy in the process. They've put the ball on the turf too many times and versatile QB Vattiato has been hit and sacked way too many times. Hilltoppers bring an aggressive and opportunistic defense to the field again. They were sensational in takeaways last season and they're on spot this season again. Offensively, QB Austin Reed following up a strong season last year with 9/1 TD/INT. MTS strong vs the run (#1 in conference) but bottom tier vs the pass. And Coach Helton likes to air it out. Helton a sweet 18-2 SU /16-3-1 ATS vs foes off SU/ATS loss, including 7-0 ATS in his last 7 home games. WKU the call.

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Thursday 9-28-23

Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston State (8:00 PM EST)
Play On: Jacksonville State -6 1/2

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks travel to Sam Houston State to take on the Bearkats on Thursday night. Jacksonville State Head Coach Rich Rodriguez went 9-2 SU in his first season here last year and they returned 16 starters to this years team. Jacksonville State is 3-1 overall this year while Sam Houston State comes in with an 0-3 record on the season. Sam Houston State offense has been bad averaging only 42 yards per game rushing, 105.7 yards per game passing and only 147.7 total yards per game this year. Jacksonville State rushing attack is averaging 237.5 yards per game on the ground. Jacksonville State defense is allowing only 11.8 points per game this year. Sam Houston State is scoring only 3.3 points per game this season. I'm thinking Jacksonville State wins and covers this one and may even shutout this Sam Houston State team. We'll recommend a small play on Jacksonville State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[ConleyPicks]

Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Packers+2 -108

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Lions/Packers under 45.5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Lions-1 -113

[ConleyPicks]

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Packers+2

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

[ConleyPicks]

Cole Faxon

FREE PLAY on Packers+2.5 -105

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Thursday.

Since dropping the opener of this series on Tuesday afternoon we've seen the Dodgers respond with consecutive lopsided victories. I'm anticipating more of the same in Thursday's series finale at Coors Field. Ryan Yarbrough will get another spot start for the Dodgers as he auditions for a postseason role on an injury-depleted pitching staff. He pitched well last time out, allowing two earned runs over four innings in Washington. Note that current Rockies hitters have just 12 at-bats collectively against Yarbrough with only one hit. The Dodgers bullpen has really locked in lately, logging a 1.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games. That's in stark contrast to the Rockies rag-tag bullpen, which has posted a 6.12 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the same stretch. Chris Flexen will get the start for Colorado. Current Dodgers hitters have rocked the journeyman right-hander, batting a collective 11-for-32 (.344) with six extra-base hits. That's without Mookie Betts having every faced him. Flexen hasn't pitched well at home this season, recording a 6.32 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 47 innings of work. That's not to mention the fact that he has logged a 5.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last three outings overall. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs.

[ConleyPicks]

Ray Monohan

Dodgers -1.5

Probable Pitchers: LAD - R. Yarbrough-L vs COL - C. Flexen-R

The LA Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies face off tonight at Coors Field, at 8:40 PM ET. The odds favor the Dodgers (-227), with the Rockies considered underdogs at +185 on the moneyline. Los Angeles also holds a -1.5 advantage on the run line, while the over/under is set at 11.5 runs. On the mound, Ryan Yarbrough (7-6, 3.78 ERA) will start for the Dodgers, aiming for his eighth win of the season. Meanwhile, the Rockies will rely on Chris Flexen (1-8, 7.01 ERA) to lead their pitching efforts.

In his previous outing, Flexen had a sub-par performance on Saturday, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and issuing 2 walks across 5 innings against the Cubs, with 1 strikeout. Notably, this marked the only time in Flexen's 5 September starts where he held the opposition to under 3 runs.

Yarbrough's most recent game he recorded 5 strikeouts while conceding 2 earned runs from 5 hits and a single walk in a 3.2 inning effort, which resulted in a 5-1 loss. Since his acquisition from the Royals, he has maintained impressive stats, boasting a 3.12 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an impressive 36:4 K:BB ratio over 34.2 innings in his 10 appearances.

As you know, I'm a Mariners fan. Flexen was on the Mariners to start the year, the L2 years. It wasn't pretty. He's just not good. Anytime I see Flexen on the mound I get excited to bet against him with the other team now.

Some trends to note, the Dodgers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Colorado, and are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Colorado. On the flip side Colorado are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games.

I'm on the Dodgers -1.5 tonight.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Thursday 5* FREE MLB RL Play

[ConleyPicks]

Dustin Hawkins

1 Dimer on Mariners -108