Saturday 9/30/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 9/30/23 September 30, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Tapatio Leo
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Double Jab; 9-Catemaco.

Forecast: Tapatio Leo is unproven on grass, but if he can transfer his main track form to turf in this first level allowance dash for Cal-breds, the Peter Miller-trained gelding can score right back after graduating three weeks ago with a powerful speed figure at Del Mar. The son of Stay Thirsty represents inside speed, and if he leaves cleanly from the rail he should be able to outfoot this group every step of the way. He’s generously listed as the second choice on the morning line at 3-1 but it wouldn’t surprise us if he goes favored.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Park City; 4-Sippin N Kissin
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast:: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming miler is a bottom-of-the-barrel affair with nothing to trust. Tread lightly. Park City is less exposed than the other contenders, so we’ll reluctantly go with him on top. He easily disposed of a maiden $20,000 group at Del Mar earlier this month in just his sixth career start while earning a career top speed figure, and from his inside draw the Dan Blacker-trained sophomore is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip. He’ll need another forward move to win but may have it in him. On pure form, Sippin N Kissin is the one to beat, but his overall record (1-for-26, winless in eight starts at Santa Anita) combined with his grinding, one-paced style, makes him impossible to back with any degree of confidence. Yet, he actually could win. In a race that is best left alone, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-North East Star
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: With the overnight scratching of Make It Snow, North East Star inherits the role as the strong favorite in this turf sprint for older fillies and mares. She lacks a true turn of foot and has encountered self-caused trouble because of that in her first three local outings, but if she can mount a rally and not get stopped, the Irish-bred sophomore in Phil D’Amato’s barn should earn her diploma in a rather lackluster race for the level.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bartholdy; 6-Tejon Pass
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

ForecastThere appears to be two main players in this maiden special weight sprint for juveniles, with the preference on top to the promising first timer Bartholdy. The son of Mendelssohn breezed a furlong in a quick :10 flat at the OBS April sale before bringing $300,000 through the ring, and his local drills have been equally if not more impressive. An exquisite mover with a long, athletic stride, he should be plenty fit and ready for a big try first crack out of the box, so if he makes no mistakes the Simon Callaghan-trained colt should be very difficult to beat. He’s listed at 8-1 on the morning line but we’re not counting on that. Tejon Pass is the best of those that have raced and can be expected to produce a significant forward move after drawing the dreaded rail (and getting left at the gate) in his debut at Del Mar in a fast race won by Slider earlier this month. The son of Justify rallied wide, finished with interest to be a respectable fourth, and could make a serious run for it if he leaves with his field. Mike Smith stays aboard, and the Peter Miller barn has solid stats with the second-time starter angle.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Impact Warrior
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Cornelia Fort.

Forecast: Impact Warrior should outclass this field. The Irish import finished an excellent second in her U.S. debut at this level in July at Del Mar and then lost nothing in defeat when third behind Anisette in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 in her most recent outing last month. Back with allowance company and switching to top grass rider Umberto Rispoli, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly has a distinct edge in the speed figure department and is likely to verify her short-priced favorite’s role.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Dr. Schivel; 3-Arabian Lion; 4-Fort Bragg; 8-Speed Boat Beach
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Sir Atticus; 9-Spirit of Makena.

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship is highly contentious and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Defending race champion Dr. Schivel is the likely choice and one to beat. He can be a bit lazy in the morning, so his recent drills don’t point him out, but he’s always loved the Santa Anita main track, so you have to expect he’ll deliver one of his better runs today. Meanwhile, trainer Bob Baffert has three legitimate entrants, and while we’re not sure if all three will actually start, each has a right to be included somewhere on your ticket should they do. Arabian Lion was below form when a fading third in the tragedy-marred Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 over a wet track at Saratoga but his sizzling score in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 (109 Beyer figure) two runs back was simply outstanding. However, his workouts in the interim have been good but not great, so we’re not quite sure he’s back to where he was. Stable mates Speed Boat Beach and Fort Bragg have credentials as well; the former has been burning up the track in preparation for his comeback, and since he won his debut we know he can fire fresh, while the latter has been primarily a two-turn runner throughout his career but this shortening in trip makes him intriguing.
*

RACE 7: Post: 4:09 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Sassy Prancelot; 11-Safa; 4-Asada Fries
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Sassy Prancelot has been training exclusively at Los Alamitos for her debut so we have no workout videos to lean on but based on her connections and the relative strength (or weakness) of this maiden juvenile filly state-bred turf sprint field she is enticing enough to rate top billing. Bred to win early and attracting top rider Juan Hernandez, the daughter of the good filly sire Sir Prancelot shows a decent series of workout times for trainer Phil D’Amato, and in a field where there is nothing to embrace among those that have raced we’ll make an educated guess while hoping to get near her morning line of 6-1. Safa and Asada Fries, distant two-three finishes behind Mirinda in a fast, highly rated dirt sprint at this level, have a look if they can repeat the same kind of their effort over the local lawn.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Slow Down Andy; 2-Defunded
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Slow Down Andy turned in a valiant effort when third in the Pacific Classic-G1 earlier this month, doing as well as he could over a 10 furlong distance that might have been a tad far for him. Today, he cuts back to a mile and one-eighth over a main track we know he likes, so the son of Nyquist should have every chance to secure the first Grade-1 win of his career. The pace projects to be moderate, so we’re expecting the Doug O’Neill-trained colt to be within striking range and have every chance. Defunded is the Awesome Again S.-G1 defending champion and a five time winner over the Santa Anita dirt track. He was off the board in his two Del Mar outings but could easily snap back to top form over a main track he clearly prefers. He switches to speed rider Edwin Maldonado, so we’re expecting to see him on or near the lead throughout.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:13 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Lane Way; 7-I’m a Gambler; 2-Bran
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Lane Way found five furlongs too sharp when a non-threatening fifth in the Green Flash H.-G3 at Del Mar earlier this month but with benefit of the extra furlong and one half of the Hillside layout the son of Into Mischief can regain his winning form. Successful in the Clocker’s Corner Stakes over this course and distance two runs back last winter, the Richard Mandella-trained gelding gets conditions that are made to order for his style, and with two sharp workouts since raced we’re expecting his best effort to be delivered. I’m a Gambler was an excellent turf sprinter overseas and this route-to-sprint maneuver may be just what he needs to regain his best form. The Mark Glatt-trained is a strong fit on speed figures and should be rolling late. Bran was a bit rusty when unplaced in the Green Flash in his first start in nearly a year. The John Sadler-trained French-bred is a two time winner under these conditions, and with any type of forward move he’ll be a major factor from the furlong pole to the wire.

*

RACE 10: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Astronomer; 4-Hong Kong Harry
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Twist.

Forecast: We’re not quite sure that Hong Kong Harry is as good as he was last year – he’s winless this year and has failed as the favorite in two of his last three starts – so while we’ll certainly concede that he’s good enough to win this year’s edition of the City of Hope Mile S.-G2 with his best race, we’ll use him but certainly not single him. A listed stakes winner at two, the lightly raced and developing Astronomer offers a reasonable gamble at 6-1 on the morning. He’s unproven at this level, but with just six starts (and three wins) the Simon Callaghan-trained son of Air Force Blue has a high ceiling and could be ready to successfully take this hike in class. In a race that projects to have moderate early fractions, he should be on or near the lead throughout and have his chance to pull off a mild surprise when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole home.

*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis September 30, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card ready to roll. The $1.00 Pick 5 has a $23,892 carryover and an estimated $100,000 pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Tobins Secret (3-1)-Dropped and popped, now bumps up but this is a competitive level. Recent form has been sharp and should get the on the point and could be tough to catch.
7-Waitforever N (3-1)-Beaten chalk drops in search of a win. The Rhoades trainee will be steered by Luke Ebersole instead of Aaron Merriman, that and the post draw should help the price.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

2-Yankee Nudge (2-1)-Delaware shipper should get a close-up seat off the gate. The 3-year-old likes to win and should be a player even though will be facing a couple of mares tonight.
3-Mississippidragon (10-1)-Has been a bridesmaid 5 times this year but has posted only 1 win in 25 starts. Myers takes the lines and maybe a new set of hands will help. Will reach for a price, has been drawing outside and should get a better trip this time.
5-Tell Kadia (12-1)-This is another who should offer a price in what could be a chalky sequence. Has missed a start and will rely on being 100% as the Clegg barn has been clicking.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Kat (8/5)-Drew the 8-hole in the 1st start in town after shipping in from the Meadows and failed to cash a check. Takes a couple of steps down and the Burke trainee should be dialed on high.
5-Lovely Munro (6-1)-Beat the NW6500 by 8.5 lengths at the Meadows as an odds-on choice. Steps up here, but could get off the gate and find a close-up seat. Best to respect at a fair price and has hit the board in 8 of 9 with 4 pictures.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

3-Carmen N The Devil (8/5)-The morning line choice should be driven aggressively and will be a small price. Leaving from post 3 shouldn't hurt, Myers can get the top and try to wire the field
6-Quite The Flirt (9-1)-Looking for a price and landed on this 3-year-old. Ships in from Aces and has Ohio connections so my take is the turns shouldn't be an issue. Doesn't win often but is competitive and with the right trip could make it interesting. Should be a large price and would spice up the gimmicks.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,7/2,3,5/2,5/3,6
Total Bet $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#5 Cressons Lil Charm
She's getting a bit short on excuses, but she has some dangerous pace and has faced some winners who would probably stack up nicely enough with this kind. Think today is her day.


#4 Rough Creek
She showed brief pace before fading against cheaper in the debut run, and she should be a big price on the move to the grass with better today. Might stick around better.


#3 No Pay No Hay
She chased out wide but couldn't quite stay in the debut run, but she probably has a little upside off that try and could move forward on the new footing.


Race Summary
Cressons Lil Charm has handled the turf well enough in those last two starts, and I think her pace makes her tough with this group while making the local debut.


Remington Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#5 City Nights
He has some pace to get in the mix early on, and he is certainly capable of something better than what he showed last time out. Think a really nice first-jump trip could be in the cards for him.


#2 Next Revolt
He's another who should be right in the frame into the first turn, and he handled the step up to this level pretty nicely last time out. Possible, but maybe at an underlaid price?


#1 I'm Crenshaw
He sometimes bring good, grinding efforts to the table, and it wouldn't be a total shock to see him land this with one of his better efforts. Not out of the question.


Race Summary
City Nights has room to bounce back today after a hard fade last out, and I'm not sure this is a super deep race for the local level, so he may not have a ton to beat if he can get back to his better stuff.


Remington Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#4 Abigail's Road
Solid lean for me here in the finale after a decent pace-tracking debut, and there are a few runners signed on in here with lines that suggest they'll pop some speed and stop. She might get drawn into a perfect trip to take command when that happens.


#9 My Maybelenne
Wondering if she has a little upside while moving to the turf for the first time here, as her main-track efforts have been one-paced so far. Well drawn based on the likely race flow if she likes the turf.


#6 Neptune's Grotto
She and the one drawn just outside of her both have some appeal in here on paper at first asking, so take a good look on the track and tote to get some clues.


Race Summary
Abigail's Road can be tough here with any reasonable second-out upside, as she might be able to sustain a bit of a move here with that debut run under her belt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 TOO MANY KISSES (10-1)
Strong rally at 5-1/2F, no match for boys at 7F, capable longshot.


#3 IRISH CRYSTAL (7-2)
Showed pulse in debut at Saratoga, good works locally since then.


#4 PARTY IS OVER (2-1)
Shook clear to brief lead before deep closer passed by, picks up 11 pounds.


Race Summary
TOO MANY KISSES steadied early, sat patient at the quarter pole and closed with a 6-wide rush to miss in a photo finish against a 5-to-2 first-time starter two starts back. She took on the boys next out and is back with her own kind today. Bet to win and place.


Laurel Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#6 ONE LAS OLAS (2-1)
Tons best against lesser at bullring, added ground a plus on return to turf.


#3 GOLDIENESS (9-5)
The other 3yo in field has wins at Laurel, Aqueduct and Parx in last seven starts.


#9 POUNDING MUSIC (4-1)
Finished in money in 11 of 15 on lawn, good for six-figure bankroll.


Race Summary
ONE LAS OLAS was better than her winning margin at Timonium’s half-mile oval indicates. She advanced quickly on the rail into the third turn of the one-mile race but was bottled up in traffic until she squeezed through a mid-stretch opening to win going away. She’s a solid win and place bet if she handles the transition to turf.


Laurel Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#5 DEEDS OF LOVE (7-2)
Dead game off 5-wide trip in the slop, just missed in three-peat attempt.


#6 LIQUIDATOR (5-2)
Finished first or second in 6 of last 7 starts on Laurel Park main track.


#9 NORTHERN GLOW (2-1)
Unwound too late as the favorite in same spot, starts fresh.


Race Summary
DEEDS OF LOVE, 5-wide most of the way, surged between rivals in late stretch but came up a head short of three consecutive victories to start her career. She tries a long sprint for the first-time with second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - September 30
Sep. 29, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.


RACE #1 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET



BEST BET: #1 TAPATIO LEO









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
1
Tapatio Leo
J J Hernandez


PLACE
5-2
2
Double Jab
U Rispoli


SHOW
20-1
11
Spiritual Advisor
K Frey


WILD CARD
15-1
4
Uncle John
A Fresu





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
6
Mr. Disrespectful
R A Vazquez


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Geezer
T J Pereira








* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 2/4/11 BOX









RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET



BEST BET: #4 SIPPIN N KISSIN









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
4
Sippin N Kissin
H I Berrios


PLACE
5-2
2
Carpe Bellum
J Valdivia Jr.


SHOW
5-2
1
Park City
J Bravo


WILD CARD
20-1
3
Take Charge Curly
K Frey





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
5
Rich Gold
D A Herrera


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
6
Kentucky Bourbon
G Franco








* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX









RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 SPAIN MOONLIGHT









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
7
Spain Moonlight
J J Hernandez


PLACE
7-2
1
Thirty Carats
R A Vazquez


SHOW
7-5
4
North East Star
A Fresu


WILD CARD
5-1
2
Interplay
U Rispoli





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
6
Storming Gray
A Alsagoor


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
5
Guitar Girl
E Payeras








* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX









RACE #4 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
2
Wynstock
J J Hernandez


PLACE
9-5
6
Tejon Pass
M E Smith


SHOW
5-1
3
Maximum Capacity
U Rispoli


WILD CARD
8-1
5
Bartholdy
A Fresu





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
7
Colorado Cruiser
E A Maldonado


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
4
Bolt At Midnight
R Gonzalez








* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX









RACE #5 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
12-1
4
Cornelia Fort
H I Berrios


PLACE
15-1
9
Shocking Grey
D A Herrera


SHOW
8-5
2
Impact Warrior
U Rispoli


WILD CARD
3-1
6
Yerwanthere
A Fresu





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
1
Luminiferous
A Cedillo


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
5
Speed Lane
R A Vazquez








* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX









RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:37 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
2
Dr. Schivel
J J Hernandez


PLACE
5-2
3
Arabian Lion
E A Maldonado


SHOW
6-1
9
Spirit of Makena
J Bravo


WILD CARD
8-1
5
Visitant
A Fresu





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
7
Sir Atticus
M E Smith


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Fort Bragg
R A Vazquez








* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX









RACE #7 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:09 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
11
Safa
T J Pereira


PLACE
4-1
4
Asada Fries
H I Berrios


SHOW
6-1
7
Petit Filet
R S Ramirez


WILD CARD
12-1
1
Cocktail Cutie
M Gutierrez





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
9
Sassy Prancelot
J J Hernandez


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
8
Wailea Sunset
E A Maldonado








* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/7/11 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX









RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:41 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
2
Defunded
E A Maldonado


PLACE
5-2
3
Slow Down Andy
M Gutierrez


SHOW
4-1
7
National Treasure
J J Hernandez


WILD CARD
6-1
9
Stilleto Boy
K J Desormeaux





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
1
Senor Buscador
G Franco


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Skinner
M E Smith








* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX









RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 8:13 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
2
Bran
J J Hernandez


PLACE
3-1
6
Lane Way
M E Smith


SHOW
15-1
10
Packs a Wahlop
H I Berrios


WILD CARD
15-1
3
Sumter
U Rispoli





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
7
Im A Gambler
A Fresu


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Noble Reflection
M Gutierrez








* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 3/6/10 BOX









RACE #10 $200,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:45 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-1
8
Cathkin Peak
U Rispoli


PLACE
5-2
4
Hong Kong Harry
J J Hernandez


SHOW
3-1
7
Twist
H I Berrios


WILD CARD
8-1
2
War At Sea
V Espinoza





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
3
Hit the Road
J Bravo


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Il Bellator
A Gomez








* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Tip Sheet - September 30
Sep. 29, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track


RACE #1 $4,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET



BEST BET: #6 GETEM TIGER









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
6
Getem Tiger
S R Amador


PLACE
7-2
3
Maycee Jo
E A Roman


SHOW
6-1
5
Blushing Bay
C Martinez


WILD CARD
10-1
2
Miss Ski
C Herrera





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
4
Going to Shabooms
A Espinoza


ALTERNATE 2
5-2
1
Big Gift
K Radke








* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX









RACE #2 $15,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
2
Shanghai Mist
S Rivera


PLACE
5-1
3
Airkita
E A Roman


SHOW
8-1
8
Blossoming
W Antongeorgi III


WILD CARD
6-1
7
Misty Cat
C Herrera





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
4
Hollywood Mistress
K Radke


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
1
Lyinatthebar
E Garcia








* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX









RACE #3 $5,000 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:49 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
4
Dawn At Last
E A Roman


PLACE
8-1
5
Jays Angel
S Rivera


SHOW
4-1
1
Bacalar
C Herrera


WILD CARD
8-1
2
Bold Mistress
L M Jimenez Aburto





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
6
Zakkiyyah
H Herrera


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Lions Lair
A Castellanos








* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX









RACE #4 $31,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:21 PM ET



BEST BET: #2 CALLHERCONTESSA









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
2
Callhercontessa
E A Roman


PLACE
6-1
7
Princesa Del Tigre
A Chavez


SHOW
15-1
3
Proof of Jazz
A Castellanos


WILD CARD
8-1
6
A Crown for Kitten
A Espinoza





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
5
Councilwoman Jilly
I Orozco


ALTERNATE 2
9-5
1
Unfaithful Ways
W Antongeorgi III








* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX









RACE #5 $10,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:54 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
4
Cry Me a Runner
I Orozco


PLACE
7-2
3
Assuredly
A Espinoza


SHOW
8-1
1
Patsy Montana
B Pena


WILD CARD
5-2
5
Harbors Rose
E A Roman





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
6
Getaway Charm
S Rivera


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
2
Not Now Im Bizzie
C Martinez








* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX









RACE #6 $30,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:26 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
1
Brookys Gal
C Herrera


PLACE
5-2
10
Valence
B Pena


SHOW
5-1
5
Acclaimed Preacher
F T Alvarado


WILD CARD
3-1
8
Ms Limoncello
A Espinoza





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
6
Vhagar
A Chavez


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
3
R Sweet Candy
L M Jimenez Aburto








* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/5/10 BOX, 5/8/10 BOX









RACE #7 $10,500 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:57 PM ET



BEST BET: #1 CRYSTAL PROOF









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
1
Crystal Proof
E A Roman


PLACE
5-2
4
Tura Lura
A Chavez


SHOW
3-1
3
Morning Addiction
A Espinoza


WILD CARD
8-1
2
Majestic Oops
F Duran





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
5
Swift Nonni
S R Amador


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
6
Charlotte Harbor
L M Jimenez Aburto








* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX









RACE #8 $33,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:29 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
7
Imgonnabesomebody
A Chavez


PLACE
7-2
6
Lammas
W Antongeorgi III


SHOW
6-1
9
American Farmer
A Espinoza


WILD CARD
10-1
2
Tesoro
F Monroy





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
10
Honos Man
I Orozco


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
5
Royal n Rando
F T Alvarado








* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 6/7/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX









RACE #9 $7,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-2
6
Dont Tell Hydee
E A Roman


PLACE
6-1
2
Moro First Class
H Herrera


SHOW
4-1
4
Madame Gazelle
A Chavez


WILD CARD
3-1
7
Tiz a Tiger
S Rivera





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
5
Takes a Village
S R Amador


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
1
Draw Near
F Monroy








* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 30
Sep. 29, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track


RACE #1 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET



BEST BET: #1 MAJOR FED









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
1
Major Fed
T Gaffalione


PLACE
6-1
5
Shortlist
F Geroux


SHOW
20-1
6
Boise
G Saez


WILD CARD
9-2
8
Cool Rags
A Achard





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
What a Country
R Santana Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
4-1
3
Cousin Larry
C J Hernandez








* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX









RACE #2 $50,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:17 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
5
Dear Lady
B J Hernandez Jr.


PLACE
5-2
3
Sparkle of Hope
T Gaffalione


SHOW
2-1
2
Pillbox
F Geroux


WILD CARD
8-1
4
Harmonica
J Talamo





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
1
Magna Massa
G Corrales


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
7
Terranova
F Arrieta








* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX









RACE #3 $50,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:47 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
5
Tepeu
R Santana Jr.


PLACE
6-1
4
Tres Soles
T Gaffalione


SHOW
4-1
3
Royal Act
C A Torres


WILD CARD
10-1
7
Take the Charge
D Cannon





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Uninvited Guest
J Talamo


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
8
Coastal Defense
R Bejarano








* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX









RACE #4 $127,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET



BEST BET: #10 THE PROCESS









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
10
The Process
C A Torres


PLACE
10-1
9
Steeler Mischief
G Corrales


SHOW
7-2
3
Copper Missile
A Beschizza


WILD CARD
4-1
5
Ham Sandwich
B J Hernandez Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Dumbstruck
R Santana Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Striking Sparks
A Achard








* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX









RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
8
Pursuit of Liberty
T Gaffalione


PLACE
4-1
10
My Favorite Girl
B J Hernandez Jr.


SHOW
3-1
12
Lady Moscato
J A Torres


WILD CARD
5-1
3
Noriskit Nobiscuit
E Morales





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
5
Thorny
J R Leparoux


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
6
Honor Cat
C A Torres








* EXACTA: 8-10 BOX, 10-12 BOX, 12-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 8/10/12 BOX, 3/10/12 BOX









RACE #6 $30,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:21 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 LOVE SPELL









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
5
Love Spell
T Gaffalione


PLACE
5-2
7
Single Ruler
E Morales


SHOW
6-1
6
Carnivore
R Bejarano


WILD CARD
12-1
4
Bucktown
C J Hernandez





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
8
Timely Prospect
D Cannon


ALTERNATE 2
3-1
3
Fightertown
J Gilligan








* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX









RACE #7 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:53 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-1
1
Megans Clara
R Santana Jr.


PLACE
7-2
5
Your So Sillea
J Loveberry


SHOW
3-1
6
Altered Shot
T Gaffalione


WILD CARD
8-1
2
Rock Star Parking
E Esquivel





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
9
Four Dawn
G Corrales


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
11
Mercy Warren
L Machado








* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX









RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:25 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
1
Ocean Pointe
J D Ramos


PLACE
5-2
7
More Than Looks
C A Torres


SHOW
6-1
11
Gaslight Dancer
J A Torres


WILD CARD
7-2
4
Noises Off
T Gaffalione





ALTERNATE 1
20-1
3
Worthington
J R Leparoux


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
8
Desert Duke
F Geroux








* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/7/11 BOX, 4/7/11 BOX









RACE #9 $400,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:58 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-5
5
Zozos
F Geroux


PLACE
7-2
2
O Besos
T Gaffalione


SHOW
3-1
3
Three Technique
R Bejarano


WILD CARD
10-1
6
Skyro
J Graham





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
1
Seize the Night
J K Court


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Stage Raider
B J Hernandez Jr.








* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX









RACE #10 $500,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-5
4
Rattle N Roll
B J Hernandez Jr.


PLACE
5-2
9
Americanrevolution
T Gaffalione


SHOW
8-1
3
Warrant
F Geroux


WILD CARD
8-1
1
Happy American
J Graham





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
5
Trademark
M Garcia


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
8
Five Star General
C J Lanerie








* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX









RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:01 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
1
Athens Moon
R Gutierrez


PLACE
4-1
6
Elegant Trip
M Garcia


SHOW
15-1
12
Now That Ican Rock
E Morales


WILD CARD
8-1
5
Orbi One
R Santana Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Royal Salute
D Cannon


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
11
Royal Sandrin
J Talamo








* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX, 12-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/6/12 BOX, 5/6/12 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 30, 2023
Sep. 28, 2023


Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 30 | Post Time 5:29 PM Eastern
Lukas Classic Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward
Analysis and Top contenders: The race appears to go through favorite, Rattle N Roll (4), who opens at 7 to 5 odds.
But does it really?
Rattle N Roll (4) won the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at this nine furlong trip in June, at odds of 8 to 5, before a half-length defeat in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in July. However, he didn’t show up as the 9 to 5 favorite last month in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, never rallying as he had in those two previous races. Was it the fact he shipped from Kentucky to New York, the different surface at Saratoga, or something else, which led to that disappointing effort? To me it really doesn’t matter, because setting aside the Foster, where the pace was blazing fast (1:10.8 for six furlongs), possibly inflating the 116 Equibase Speed Figure he earned that day, Rattle N Roll earned 106, 107, 105 and 106 figures in his other three “A” races this year. Those are NOT STANDOUT figures or efforts here, with every one of the other eight horses In this race having run as fast in at least one race this year. As such, I’m taking a stand against Rattle N Roll at a short price, and looking for value with other horses which have every bit as much probability to win, and at higher odds.
First among those is Warrant (3), who opens at 8 to 1. He’s won at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile and one-half, and he’s banked $1.1 million, which compares favorably with the $1.7 million Rattle N Roll has earned as well as the $1.2 million American Revolution (9) has earned. Warrant has won at Churchill Downs and he enters the race in top form, having battled head and head down the length of the stretch in the Governor’s Cup Stakes at Remington Park last month. He takes blinkers off to perhaps help him to see his opponent compared to that last race, and he’s reunited with Florent Geroux, not only the #1 winning jockey for the Brad Cox barn, but also having ridden Warrant to victory the only last time he was in the saddle, in January. Warrant also has one very important thing in common with Rattle N Roll, in that he finished second (beaten a head) in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap (last year), similar to Rattle N Roll having finished second in the Stephen Foster in July. Last but not least, Warrant gets the three post in the gate, with the two horses inside of him possessing no desire to lead. Five Star General (8) should have the lead early as he’s the quickest, which puts Geroux in the catbird seat of stalking the likely early leader before launching a bid in the stretch.
Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) are two horses I believe we must consider for win bets so we won’t be kicking ourselves after the race, as both open at double digit odds and are very competitive.
Trademark has won three of four races at Churchill Downs in his career, and has won at this nine furlong trip. He won the Schaefer Memorial Stakes in July, beating Five Star General by a length and one-half, then he led late and came up a half-length short to Whelen Springs (7), who also opens at double digit odds, in the Iselin Stakes in August. Martin Garcia rode Trademark to back to back wins last October and November including the one at this distance, with the other coming in the $300,000 Commonwealth Stakes on the main track, and the horse has excellent tactical speed so could be close to Warrant in the early stages and give that one a battle down to the wire.
Similarly, Five Star General (8) can’t be dismissed. He will be discounted by many bettors as he ships in from Washington State, but he’s a traveler, who has won at Keeneland, Evangeline Downs and Emerald Downs. He’s won at this distance, and he’s won with Lanerie in the saddle, who rides him today. With 10 wins in 30 races and over $600K in the bank, this horse is no slouch, and he put in a strong four furlong workout recently in preparation for the race, adding the likelihood he will go for the lead as he did when winning the Evangeline Mile in April. In case another horse wants the lead more than he does, that’s not a problem either, as he won the Longacres Mile after stalking in second for the first half mile.
As to the other likely betting favorite, American Revolution (9), who opens at 5 to 2, I feel the same away about his chances as I do the chances of Rattle N Roll. American Revolution won five of his first seven races, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, but that was 2021, not 2023. He went zero-for-three last year (with two seconds) and in his only start this year, in August, American Revolution finished fourth as the odds-on favorite. He did stumble in that race, but that does not really tell us if this is the same horse at the age of five who was so powerful at the age of three and he’ll have to prove it in this field, which may be problematic.
Bets:
Win: Warrant (3) can be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
We can also consider win bets, for lesser amounts (because the odds will be higher) on both Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas: As Warrant finishes second (six times) as much as he wins (5 times) he is a good horse to key on exacta tickets as follows: 3 over 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
(#4 is Rattle N Roll, #5 is Trademark, #6 is Blue Devil, #7 is Whelen Springs, #8 is Five Star General, #9 is American Revolution).
Then, to maximize profit I will box Warrant with four other contenders at high odds:
Box Warrant (3) and Trademark (5), Warrant (3) and Blue Devil (6), Warrant (3) and Whelen Springs (7), Warrant (3) and Five Star General (8).
Optionally we can also play an exacta box between Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) as it would pay handsomely if it comes in.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 30
Sep. 28, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (3) Dusk (B) broke last in her debut and rallied to fourth at 6-1 and gets Irad Ortiz for a trainer that has a good second start win percentage. (7) Alette d’Oro brings a strong workout pattern to Aqueduct for her debut for a trainer that wins in New York. (1) Lu’s Redemption was entered for the grass in her first start after getting bet to 10-1. (4) Snarky flashed speed in both of her Saratoga starts and the blinkers come off after not helping last time.
8th race [NY, Alw 80000 N1X, 7F] – (7) Callaloo (D) was bet down from 10-1 to 6-1 but needed a race after a six-month layoff. (2) Be the Boss moved back to the turf, which is clearly his best surface, and finished second twice by narrow margins. (9) Rocket and Roll got his maiden win when he moved to face NY-breds after three starts against open company at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park. (4) Locke and Key won his last two races in starter allowances against open company and changes trainers.
9th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (9) Magic Eight Ball (B) is a talented horse that has needed racing experience and was a favorite in her debut at Belmont Park. (2) Steel Lute was second in her first career start at Saratoga when she rallied for second. (5) Vino Rouge broke last in her first race at Saratoga, raced wide, and rallied to get fourth. (7) Spendalot was a $650,000 yearling purchase by the good turf and dirt sire More Than Ready.
10th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 30
Sep. 28, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (2) Pillbox hasn’t raced since March but is working nicely for her comeback. (3) Sparkle of Hope will be dangerous back in a claimer. (1) Magna Massa should work out a nice ground-saving trip. (5) Dear Lady well be well-suited by dirt. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3. Exactas: 2-3 over 1-5 and 1-5 over 2-3.
4th race – (2) Value Engineer flopped in a stakes but can rebound in this spot. (3) Copper Missile comes off a solid maiden win and should be the main rival. (6) Legal Titan has speed and could be tough to catch. (7) Dumbstruck won his turf debut and merits attention. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-7. Doubles: 2-3-6-7 with 1-3-7-8.
5th race – (8) Pursuit of Liberty showed speed in her debut and wound up third. May not look back in this try. (3) Noriskit Nobiscuit put in a sharp work for this and should be a factor. (1) Bump in the Night could be a threat in her debut. (7) Starina seems ready for a solid effort in her debut. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.
8th race – (9) Ocean Vision ran well in his U.S. debut despite a bad start. Can take a big step forward here. (7) More Than Looks was hurt by a wide trip last time and should be a top threat here. (6) Smokey Mandate looks like the one to catch in the stretch. (11) Gaslight Dancer will be a factor if he can overcome the outside post. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 6-7-9-11.
11th race – (5) Orbi One missed by a nose last time and makes amends here. (6) Elegant Trip was third in his two starts and belongs in the exotics. (8) Metallurgic should be closing quickly in the stretch. (11) Royal Sandrin did well on synthetics and should handle turf. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-8-11.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for LethbridgePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=lbg0930zf.pdf&exp=10/02/2023&pds=LBG_-_09/30/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/30/2023;TRACK_CODE=LBG&SAP=FREEPICS)


Lethbridge - Race 2

Exactor / Triactor / / Superfecta / Daily Double


Starter Allowance $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $7,400 • Post: 1:40P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5000 OR LESS IN 2022-2023 AND HAVE NOT WON A STARTER FOR $5000. OR HIHGER OR ANY HIGHER RACE SINCE RUNNING FOR $5000 OR LESS. MAIDEN, N/W 2,3,4,5 AND LOWER STARTER WINS NOT CONSIDERED HIGHER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * THATSALOTOFBLING: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Hors e has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DAZZLING MIST: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. ARTISAN DANCER: Today is a sprint, ho rse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



5

THATSALOTOFBLING

1/1


9/2




2

DAZZLING MIST

9/5


9/2




4

ARTISAN DANCER

8/1


8/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

ONEFINEDAY

7


10/1

Front-runner

65


57


105.0


56.6


47.6




4

ARTISAN DANCER

4


8/1

Front-runner

70


63


92.5


61.0


53.5




6

HOME EARLY SHIRLEY

6


3/1

Front-runner

65


56


52.0


43.2


29.7




2

DAZZLING MIST

2


9/5

Alternator/Front-runner

75


68


78.3


68.2


65.2




5

THATSALOTOFBLING

5


1/1

Stalker

78


69


70.8


69.0


66.0




1

SATURDAY SERVICE

1


10/1

Alternator/Stalker

63


58


72.6


66.8


59.3




3

ROTTEN TO THE CORE

3


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

71


55


0.0


49.0


38.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate FieldsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=gg0930zf.pdf&exp=10/02/2023&pds=GG_-_09/30/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/30/2023;TRACK_CODE=GG&SAP=FREEPICS)


Golden Gate Fields - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Superfecta (.10 min) / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)


Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 2:49P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. LION'S LAIR is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LION'S LAIR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface . JAYS ANGEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DAWN AT LAST: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top t hree in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BOLD MISTRESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



3

LION'S LAIR

10/1


9/2




5

JAYS ANGEL

8/1


6/1




4

DAWN AT LAST

2/1


7/1




2

BOLD MISTRESS

8/1


9/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

DAWN AT LAST

4


2/1

Front-runner

75


76


97.2


64.5


59.0




2

BOLD MISTRESS

2


8/1

Front-runner

72


74


91.2


70.6


65.6




1

BACALAR

1


4/1

Front-runner

74


75


82.8


52.9


43.4




5

JAYS ANGEL

5


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

75


78


68.4


71.6


66.6




6

ZAKKIYYAH

6


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

70


69


64.6


62.0


53.0




3

LION'S LAIR

3


10/1

Alternator/Trailer

83


78


55.0


70.0


63.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ls0930zz.htm&exp=10/02/2023&pds=LS_-_09/30/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/30/2023;TRACK_CODE=LS&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SA - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 MIGHTY POCKET ROCKET 6/5




# 11 PECOS RIVER QUEEN 4/1




# 12 CASH TRAIN B 8/1




MIGHTY POCKET ROCKET has a decent shot to take this race. With a solid 79 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. With a very good 83 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. He has respectable class ratings, averaging 87, and has to be given a chance for this event. PECOS RIVER QUEEN - Could beat this group given the 75 Equibase speed fig put up in her last outing. Have to sense that this racer will make a good impression again this time out. CASH TRAIN B - Could beat this group given the 73 speed fig garnered in her last outing.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=prm0930zm.htm&exp=10/02/2023&pds=PRM_-_09/30/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/30/2023;TRACK_CODE=PRM&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Prairie Meadows - Race #5 - Post: 5:41pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $43,243 Class Rating: 57

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 MADETHEDEAN'SLIST (ML=7/2)
#8 ROCKIN BOOTS (ML=15/1)
#9 CAN'T MAKE ME (ML=4/1)


MADETHEDEAN'SLIST - Have to like this gelding today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite pattern, getting closer with every race. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the ability to make his presence felt. This animal has increased his speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at. ROCKIN BOOTS - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the capability to make his presence felt. CAN'T MAKE ME - The ROI when Roman and McShane partner up is tremendous. Mare's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. This thoroughbred has increased her Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking notice of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TAP ON BY (ML=3/1), #3 CLIMB TO GLORY (ML=5/1), #5 COUNTY JAIL (ML=6/1),

TAP ON BY - If you keep choosing these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be frustrated regularly. CLIMB TO GLORY - Difficult to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. COUNTY JAIL - Hard to bet this one after not being on the lead at 1 mile and now being spotted in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. This horse hasn't had nary a single workout after running so well on Sep 9th. This racer likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish on top. Don't put in the top spot.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 MADETHEDEAN'SLIST to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

6 with [8,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [6,8,9] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse RacingPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=fan0930zz.htm&exp=10/02/2023&pds=FAN_-_09/30/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/30/2023;TRACK_CODE=FAN&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 TRY TRY AGAIN 5/2




# 5 LITTLE MIGHTY MAN 3/1




# 4 NOT AGAIN JACKIE 6/1




I've got to go with TRY TRY AGAIN. The average class fig alone makes this one a definite contender. Looks very good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races recently. Is hard not to consider based on speed figures which have been formidable - 86 avg - of late.LITTLE MIGHTY MAN - As of late Bendezu has been hot which may give the edge to this gelding. With a decent 81 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. NOT AGAIN JACKIE - Ought to be given a shot based on the decent speed rating garnered in the last outing. With a reliable jockey who has won at a formidable 16 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=rp0930zm.htm&exp=10/02/2023&pds=RP_-_09/30/2023&var=RACE_DATE=09/30/2023;TRACK_CODE=RP&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Remington Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:59pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 83

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 STOCKPILER (ML=4/1)
#2 DOMINANT OKIE (ML=5/1)


STOCKPILER - This gelding recorded a nice speed rating of 80 in his last clash. That speed figure should be strong enough to prove victorious this time out. This gelding is in top form right now. Finished second in the last race and comes back quickly. Three consecutive improved speed figs (52-63-80) make this animal a strong contender. DOMINANT OKIE - The jockey and conditioner combination have a profitable return on investment when they team up. Gelding is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a top effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 AQUIMINE (ML=2/1), #6 AMERICAN SMOOTH (ML=3/1), #3 PRAIRIE DOLLAR (ML=6/1),

AQUIMINE - Today's contest is 7 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last 60 days. Not the best of signs. Hard to keep chasing this kind of 'hanger' horse. AMERICAN SMOOTH - Not probable that the speed fig he notched on Sep 11th will be good enough in this affair. PRAIRIE DOLLAR - This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of his last two outings. 6/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any horse in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event lately.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 STOCKPILER to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Columbus

Columbus - Race 1

$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta


Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse:$15,000 • Post: 1:00P


AMADEVIL S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD, BRED IN NEBRASKA. PURSE $15,000-ADDED. NO NOMINATION FEE WITH $50 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $50 TO START. WITH $15,000-ADDED OF WHICH 60% OF THE TOTAL MONIES TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHTS: 3-YEAR-OLDS 123 LBS., OLDER 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $9,000 TWICE IN 2022-23 ALLOWED 3 LBS.; OF $9,000 IN 2022-23, 5 LBS. MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED, ON THE SCALE. TOTAL EARNINGS IN 2022-23 WILL BE USED IN DETERMINING THE ORDER OF PREFERENCE OF HORSES ASSIGNED EQUAL WEIGHTS. CLOSED TUESDAY, SEPT. 26 WITH TWELVE NOMINATIONS.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. BARTENDERS MISTAKE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PHLASH DRIVE: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower tha n the Class Rating of its last race. JUDGE'S BRIBE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trail er. FOR REEL: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last ra ce. BARTENDERS MISTAKE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



3

PHLASH DRIVE

5/2


9/2




1

JUDGE'S BRIBE

2/1


5/1




2

FOR REEL

4/1


9/1




7

BARTENDERS MISTAKE

7/2


9/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

KENHEDOIT

4


5/1

Front-runner

73


73


54.3


54.6


45.6




6

NAME THE PRICE

6


8/1

Alternator/Front-runner

71


70


64.5


59.8


49.8




3

PHLASH DRIVE

3


5/2

Stalker

82


82


73.4


70.0


67.0




1

JUDGE'S BRIBE

1


2/1

Stalker

81


80


59.6


69.6


62.1




2

FOR REEL

2


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

82


71


61.5


60.2


51.2




7

BARTENDERS MISTAKE

7


7/2

Trailer

76


67


50.4


69.8


64.3




5

J PS HARLEY GLIDER

5


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

70


70


84.0


56.6


44.1




8

L B GOLD

8


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

70


60


35.8


54.6


41.1

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 70

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 KAITIE KAIT 9/2




# 5 PARDY PLEASER 7/2




# 6 CROWN JAK 4/1




KAITIE KAIT is my choice. She has earned respectable figures under today's conditions and should fare well against this field. PARDY PLEASER - She has posted very strong figs under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this group. Must be given a shot - I like the figs from the last competition. CROWN JAK - This equine is in the upper half of this field in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Could provide positive dividends based on strong recent speed figures with an average of 60.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Santa Anita - Race #7 - Post: 4:09pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 PETIT FILET (ML=6/1)
#2 LADY LITHESOME (ML=8/1)
#9 SASSY PRANCELOT (ML=6/1)
#5 KITZKATY (ML=8/1)


PETIT FILET - Filly's last race was against tougher open company. She's in with easier 'state breds' today. Rider jumped on this filly's back for the initial time on September 8th. Should be in touch with the horse even better in this race. Has the look of a potential overlay in today's race at morning odds of 6/1. Finished seventh in last race at Del Mar but was close at the end. LADY LITHESOME - This beautiful animal has a lot of class. A good sign in a grass race like we have today. In her first race, this horse was clobbered badly. She should improve in today's race. SASSY PRANCELOT - My experienced judgement tells me to be on the alert for this animal in this race KITZKATY - After the affair aboard this animal on August 25th, the rider is going to 'know' the filly much better. Fresu and O'Neill perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +25 return on investment for a jockey and conditioner. Look for this one to go gate to wire in victory at some pretty good odds today. Ran sixth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 SAFA (ML=7/2), #4 ASADA FRIES (ML=4/1), #6 ANNIE FOX (ML=8/1),

SAFA - Trying to beat this entrant this time at the price of 7/2. ASADA FRIES - Unlikely that the speed rating she earned on September 10th will hold up in this event. ANNIE FOX - Hard to bet on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the risk. The Brain tells me to keep away from horses in short distance races that haven't hit the board in sprint contests of late.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 PETIT FILET is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita All Turf Pick 3Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $61000 Class Rating: 80

SA - R7 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 11 SAFA 7/2




# 7 PETIT FILET 6/1




# 1 COCKTAIL CUTIE 12/1




SAFA looks to be a formidable contender. She looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. Ran a strong last race.PETIT FILET - Will probably compete strongly in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group. Is difficult not to look at based on speed figures which have been strong - 73 avg - of late.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 5

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Daily Double $1 Pick Three $2 Quinella


Claiming $16,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR:72 • Purse: $10,350 • Post: 8:22P


QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * BRONN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



5

BRONN

8/5


5/2






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

SEPARATIST FOR MONEY

1


4/1

Average

73


57


0.0


0.0


0.0




2

TEMPTING COURAGE

2


8/1

Average

64


55


0.0


0.0


0.0




3

KING LUKE

3


3/1

Average

63


57


0.0


0.0


0.0




4

MAGIC KING CORONA

4


5/2

Average

68


61


5.1


0.0


0.0




5

BRONN

5


8/5

Average

74


76


0.0


0.0


0.0

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: SMU -22.5 over Charlotte

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4UEarly Saturday Free Selection: Virginia Cavaliers/Boston College Eagles under 52 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 SportsEarly Saturday's Free Play: Virginia Cavaliers + 3 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Early Saturday Football Selection From Lee
UTAH STATE -4

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play
LSU -2' CFB

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Teyas SportsFREE PICK 9/30/23 CFB WYOMING -14

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Kenny TowersYour Free Pick for this Saturday - Washington -18


Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 4-4

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take Toledo -13.5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, September 30, 2023

CFB
9/30 05:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET
CF (215) WEST VIRGINIA VS (216) TCU
Take: OVER
Reason: A pair of 3-1 teams meet here on Saturday as TCU hosts West Virginia from the Amon Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. TCU won this matchup last season, 41-31 as a 7-point road favorite. West Virginia lost its opener to Penn State, 15-38. However, they have ton three straight over Duquesne, Pitt, and last week over Texas Tech, 30-13, as a 6-point dog. They have at least 146 yards rushing in each game. They have also covered their last three games. TCU also opened with a loss to Colorado, 42-45, but have since beaten Nicholls State, Houston and last week over SMU, 34-17. They are 2-2 vs the spread. The Horned Frogs have averaged 208.3 yards on the ground and 292.8 yards through the air. Their defense has held opponents to just 85.8 rushing yards. TCU has averaged 38.3 ppg, good for 23rd in the nation. They are 23rd in passing and 20th in rushing. I don't see West Virginia being able to move the ball well against this TCU defense and keep up with the dynamic TCU offense. Your free play for Saturday is on the OVER!

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2023
CFB
202. Mississippi +2.5 (3 PT / 6 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the Rice Owls -3.5 over East Carolina

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday :Take IOWA ST +19.5 over Oklahoma

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 120-82 run Sat South Alabama + 3

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: NEVADA +24.5 over Fresno St

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for Saturday
Take the Penn State first half (NCAAF)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SATURDAY!
CFB Oregon/Stanford OVER the total of 59.5 pts!

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: MINNESOTA -10.5 over UL-Lafayette

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic SportsEarly Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Navy Midshipmen -3

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Sharp BettorSharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2023
FREE
CFB
216. TCU -12.5 (5 PT / 8 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye SportsEarly Saturday's Free Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves + 2 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from The Last CallSaturday's Early Free Play: (172) California Golden Bears - 13

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Early Saturday: Western Michigan Broncos - 1 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
San Diego State/Air Force OVER (NCAAF)

[ConleyPicks]

Will Rogers

Free Play: Everton-157 (Soccer)

Big class difference between these clubs. Off b2b victories, the Toffees are finding their way. Luton Town continues to struggle. In what will be Sean Dyche's 500th match as manager, the Toffees won't be denied their third straight win. Luton Town is in over its head. Lay the price with the much better club, playing in front of its home fans.

[ConleyPicks]

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Free Play Over 55 Buffalo/Akron * The Buffalo Bulls have played four games this year. The combined points scored in those four games: 55, 77, 82, and 83. They gave up 40 points to Fordham. They gave up 55 points against Liberty. This Buffalo defense is giving up 7.27 yards per play on the season thus far. They have given up an astounding 30 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Bulls defense is terrible.

Akron's offense should improve a lot playing against MAC defenses, especially one like Buffalo. DJ Irons is back in form now, and Irons is capable of breaking a big one at any point. He should be able to make things happen against this Buffalo defense.

I think Cole Snyder is one of the better quarterbacks in the MAC too. Buffalo is an underdog here and if they are playing from behind like I expect, I think Buffalo has a good shot to move the ball through the air against a susceptible Akron secondary.

Take the over.

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #210 Under 55.5in Texas A&M Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks (12p.m., Saturday, September 30 SECN) This game is once again being played at Jerry World, as Jerry Jones is an alum of the Razorbacks. Texas A&M came to play on defense last week holding Auburn to zero offensive touchdowns in route to a 27-10 victory. Expect them to dictate the style of this game again and look for the Aggies to keep the scoring in the high forties. The Razorbacks have scored 31 points each of the last two weeks and lost both games. This is not the style Sam Pittman wants to play and I look for him to sure up the defense this week. We will play the under and not worry about who will come out on top in this must win game for both sides. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring winners in MLB, WNBA, Ryder Cup Golf, and of course football. We have nailed our top play in college football three straight weeks and now is the time to jump on board with this veteran handicapper with 52 years of experience.

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas +7

The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost consecutive one-score games, and I think this is do or die for them Saturday against Texas A&M as a result. They don't want to open 0-2 in SEC play, especially with road games at Ole Miss and at Alabama looming after this.

Arkansas had a misleading 31-38 loss to BYU two weeks ago in which they outgained the Cougars by 143 yards. They held BYU to 281 total yards, yet somehow gave up 38 points. Then last week they put forth one of the most impressive performances of the season, only losing 31-34 at LSU as 18-point underdogs in Baton Rouge.

That effort against LSU shows what the Razorbacks are capable of. Now there's a good chance they get RB Raheim Sanders back from injury after missing the past three games. He rushed for 1,443 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 per carry last season and has been out since scoring two touchdowns in the opener. Star QB KJ Jefferson would welcome back another big playmaker to this offense this week.

Speaking of injuries, Texas A&M could be without QB Conner Weigman, who exited last game against Auburn with an ankle injury and did not return. Backup Max Johnson would be a pretty big downgrade if that's the case. But I like Arkansas' chances of keeping this a one-score game and possibly pulling off the upset either way.

Texas A&M has three home wins against a very soft schedule of New Mexico, UL Monroe and a rebuilding Auburn team to pad their stats thus far. When they stepped up in class in their lone road game, they got blasted 48-33 at Miami. No question the Aggies are improved after going 5-7 last year, which isn't saying much. But Jimbo Fisher is just having a tough time getting his players to live up to the hype of these great recruiting classes.

This has been a very closely-contested series. Each of the last six meetings were decided by 11 points or fewer. Texas A&M has been favored in all six, going just 2-4 ATS. Eleven of the last 13 meetings were decided by 12 points or fewer, including eight by 7 points or less. There's a good chance this one is decided by a single score as well, thus there's value in backing the Razorbacks at +7. Bet Arkansas Saturday

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Jesse Schule

This is a free play on CUSE+7 -105.

The Orange have given Clemson all they can handle over the years, covering in five of the last six head to head meetings. Last year they took a double digit lead into the 4th quarter at Clemson, but injuries to QB Garrett Schraeder and RB Sean Tucker prevented them from running the ball down the stretch and protecting that lead. A soft schedule so far allows Syracuse to come into this game healthy, and that might make a huge difference here. This is a dream crusher spot for Clemson, who have no chance to reach their goals after suffering their second loss of the season last week against Florida State.

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Northwestern +27.5

This looks like a flat spot for the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State has opened 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS so their spreads are inflated moving forward. They are coming off the 31-0 home win over Iowa on National TV in front of a White Out. Now they have to go on the road for only the second time this season to take on Northwestern. They were very fortunate to cover as 14-point favorites in a 30-13 win at Illinois in their only previous road game. Illinois turned it over four times. Penn State only outgained Illinois by 29 yards. Northwestern has been impressive in its two home games this season. The Wildcats won 38-7 over UTEP as 1-point favorites in Week 2, and pulled off the 37-34 upset win as 11.5-point dogs to Minnesota last week. Northwestern QB Ben Bryant went 33-of-49 passing for 396 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. The Cincinnati transfer is the best QB the Wildcats have had in a few years. He can keep them within four touchdowns of the Nittany Lions Saturday. Give me Northwestern.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Buffalo/Akron Under 55.5

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Buffalo/Akron under 55.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: California-12.5

Arizona State put forth a great effort in covering as a 34 1/2-point underdog to powerful USC in a 42-28 loss to the Trojans last Saturday.

I don't see the Sun Devils coming up with that type of effort and motivation for a second straight week, especially going on the road for the first time this season.

Prior to playing the Trojans, Arizona State was 0-3 ATS failing to cover in any of those games by a combined 66 1/2 points.

California lost some luster after losing, 59-32, on the road to seventh-ranked Washington last week. That score was misleading considering the Huskies only outgained the Golden Bears by 27 yards. Cal fell behind early and couldn't recover.

I see this as a bounce back spot for the Golden Bears and they are undervalued because of last week's result. Arizona State's only victory came against Southern Utah. The Sun Devils lost to Oklahoma State and Fresno State by a combined score of 56-15.

So Cal should be able to cover being nearly a two-touchdown home favorite.

[ConleyPicks]

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Rays+110

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Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' 39 between Michigan and Nebraska at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Michigan's offense has barely broken a sweat through its first four games. That's a product of playing all four games at home as massive favorites (not to mention the fact that the Wolverines have allowed a grand total of only 23 points). Here, I do think we'll see the Wolverines push the envelope a little more as game script should dictate in what figures to be their most competitive contest of the season to date. Nebraska could only muster three points in last year's matchup with Michigan. That was in the Big House. The last time we saw the Cornhuskers host the Wolverines they put 29 points on the board in 2021. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 51-27 with Michigan coming off consecutive ATS losses, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 53.7 points. Take the over.

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#211 ASA PLAY ON Kansas +16.5 over Texas, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Too many points here in our opinion. We have a big dog that can score points so they have a great chance of keeping up with Texas and the backdoor could be open late and this high number. Tough spot for Texas coming off a big win vs in state rival Baylor and a huge game on deck vs Oklahoma. A look ahead is possible as the Horns have been prone to do covering just 2 of their last 11 games the week prior to facing the Sooners. The Jayhawks topped Texas here on Austin 2 years ago as a 31 point dog in Lance Leipold’s first year as head coach. KU had only 2 wins that season and 1 was here so they should have some confidence rolling into this one. Not a revenge game for Texas however as they picked up a big win @ Kansas last season. We love the Kansas balance on offense (rush and pass for over 200 YPG) and their OC Kotelnicki is one of the top play callers in CFB. Defensively this team is improved as well allowing less than 300 YPG so far this season after giving up almost 500 YPG last season. Improvements on both sides of the ball was expected as this team has tremendous continuity with 18 starters back along with their head coach and both coordinators. KU has topped 30 points in every game this season and we think it will be tough for Texas to pull away here. Take the points.

[ConleyPicks]

Ray Monohan

Georgia -14.5 -109

Georgia continues its National Championship pursuit this week by facing Auburn.

The #1 ranked Bulldogs aim to maintain their perfect season as they face the Tigers in Week 5 of SEC action on CBS at 3:30 p.m. ET. UGA is the clear favorite with a 14.5-point spread, and the over/under for total points is set at 45. The money line shows UGA at -647 and Auburn at +453.

Georgia boasts an unblemished 5-0 record, most recently securing a dominant 49-21 victory over the UAB Blazers. They've also triumphed over South Carolina, Ball State, UT Martin, and TCU. Auburn enters this matchup with a 3-1 record, having defeated Samford, CAL, and UMass, but suffering a 27-10 loss to Texas A&M last week. Notably, Georgia is 0-3 ATS in 2023, while Auburn stands at 1-3 ATS.

The Bulldogs, defending national champions, are poised to assert their dominance in the deep south's oldest rivalry. With a remarkable record of winning 9 out of the last 10 games against Auburn and 15 out of the last 18 since 06.

In a nutshell, Auburn's struggling offense won't keep pace. They remain a work in progress, ranking as the SEC's weakest passing team. Their offensive line won't hold up, a vulnerability Georgia is well aware of. Anticipate relentless defensive pressure and suffocating coverage throughout the game as Georgia will easily take down Auburn and continue their championship quest.

Some trends to note, Georgia are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Auburn, plus they're 11-0 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the SEC. Auburn are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against an SEC team.

Back the Dogs on Saturday. This could get ugly, as my model has them winning by 3 TD's.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE CFB ATS Play

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Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Kansas Jayhawks+16.5

Game 211.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Guys, there is no question that on paper, the Texas Longhorns have a stronger team than the Kansas Jayhawks. But I think we can all agree that football is not played on paper, it is played on the gridiron. And there’s a lot of factors play a role in why I like the underdog here. Last year’s matchup saw Texas devour Kansas on the road, 55-14, to not just get the win, but the cover as well. Prior to that the Jayhawks had covered five consecutive meetings, taking two of them straight up. Kansas enters. this meeting with a perfect 4-0 record. They have stepped up in class twice this season against both Illinois and BYU, and have covered both of those games. Granted, both of those contests were played at home. The Longhorns opened the season with the win and cover at home against Rice, then surprised the nation beating Alabama on the road outright. They followed that up with a letdown, even though they won, they could not cover at home against Wyoming. Last week on the road, they blew up Baylor. Following this pattern, they’re not going to cover here this week. I will tell you that everybody’s talking about their defense right now, which has allowed just 12.5 points per game. But they really haven’t faced any strong offenses yet. I know the Crimson Tide is a very good team. But I think we can all agree, they just aren’t clicking like we are accustomed to seeing them. Kansas has a solid ground attack and a smart quarterback at the helm. The Jayhawks don’t turn the ball over too much. And being they are strong at rushing the ball, they can slow down the tempo of this game, keeping the Texas defense on the field, and their offense off it. Defensively, they match up pretty well with the Longhorns offense, my friends. There’s one more thing I’d like you to be aware of guys, Texas has Oklahoma up next in the Red River rivalry. They may get caught in the lookahead role here a little bit. Or at the very least, if they have a comfortable lead, they may start pulling some of their key players. Either way, I think this is way too many points for this team to be laying. Oh, by the way, if you are concerned with the Jayhawks poor ATS road record, don’t be because the Longhorns haven’t covered too many games at home lately. Take the points with Kansas. Thank you.

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Iowa State +20 1.1% Free Play

Iowa State has an elite defense, and we have seen Oklahoma sputter on offense a couple times thus far. Oklahoma obviously has a look ahead next week to Texas and Red River Rivalry with playoff aspirations and revenge on their mind after they got their butts kicked a year ago. Iowa State under Matt Campbell has played well on the road in this series and I think they may have gotten a little confidence offensively as Rocco Becht easily his best game throwing for over 300 yards, 3 TD’s and 0 INT.

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Padres-141

No analysis provided.

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Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Iowa-10

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ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven 1* NCAAF Annihilator.
Free Play: Washington/Arizona Over 65

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

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Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Washington -17.5 -113

The Key: The Washington Huskies may very well be the best team in all of college football this season. They clearly aren't afraid to run it up as they beat Boise State 56-19, Tulsa 43-10, Michigan State 41-7 and California 59-32. They have arguably the best offense (49.8 PPG) in the country right alongside the likes of Oregon and USC within the Pac-12. But they have a legit defense that is allowing just 17.0 PPG. Arizona takes a big step up in competition here after facing Northern Arizona, UTEP, Stanford and Mississippi State thus far. In their 21-20 win at Stanford last week as 13-point favorites, they lost star QB Jayden De Laura to a calf injury, and he is questionable to play this week. I don't give the Wildcats much of a chance to hang in this game with or without De Laura, but it would just be an added bonus for us if he does not suit up. Washington has a bye on deck next week so they should be fully focused and avoid a letdown here. Kalen DeBoer is 9-1 ATS off a win by 21 points or more as a head coach. He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. Take Washington.

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Washington vs Arizona under 67.5

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Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Portland+252 (Soccer)

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