Monday 10/2/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection MONDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2023
NFL
279. Giants +1.5 (5:15 PT / 8:15 ET)

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Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Monday :Take SEATTLE/NY GIANTS UNDER the total of 47

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Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR MONDAY!
NFL Seattle/NYGiants UNDER the total of 47 pts!

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Bruins vs Flyers under 6.5 -125

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Seahawks/Giants under 47

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Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Seahawks vs Giants under 47

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Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Seahawks/Giants under 47

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Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Seahawks/Giants under 47.5 -115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

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Dustin Hawkins

1 Dimer on Seahawks-1.5 -105

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Seahawks-1.5 -105

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Ray Monohan

UNDER 47.5 Seahawks/Giants

In this week's NFL action, the Seahawks (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are set to clash with the Giants (1-2, 0-3 ATS) at MetLife Stadium tonight. The game kicks off at 8:15pm ET and will be broadcast on ABC/ESPN. Let's dive into the betting odds: Moneyline (ML) has the Seahawks at +102 and the Giants at -120, while the Giants are favored by -1.5 points against the spread (ATS). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game is set at 47.5 points as of Monday AM.

When breaking down the O/U odds for this one this week we see the this total opened at 44.5, and then the O/U steadily climbed during the week, hitting a minimum of 45 which caused the line to rise. The initial money from the public favored the Over. It's now gone up by a FG. We like the line where it is but can't see this going OVER tonight.

Daniel Jones has that terrible prime-time record, and Geno is returning to NYC, it's a great storyline. Injury notes. No Barkley for the Giants, and the Seahawks get Jamal Adams back tonight (Possible pitch count, but we expect him in there most of the game). In 2022 the Seahawks beat the Giants 27-13. The Hawks are middle of the pack in pace of play, and the Giants are the second slowest team in the NFL, and one of the worst teams in the NFL in YPP, plus the Giants are 31st in the NFL at 14PPG.

Some trends to note, the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC East. On the other side the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last 6 games, and 14 of their L20 games at home.

Last point, the Giants rank 28th in the NFL in Rush Yds Allowed. The Seahawks could be running all day with Walker, Charbonnet and Dallas, what does that mean? The clock is running.

The Giants have put up 19 points in their L3 prime time games, and Daniel Jones is 0-6 on MNF.

We're on the UNDER 47.5

Good Luck, Razor Ray

Monday 5* FREE NFL O/U Play

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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Seahawks vs Giants under 47

*All NFL picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*

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Cole Faxon

FREE PLAY on Giants+2

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Mike Williams

1* on Seattle Kraken-130

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Seattle vs NY Giants
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of NY Giants's last 22 games at home

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Seahawks vs Giants Trends

The Under is 16-4-2 in the Giants’ last 22 home games.

The total for the Monday Nighter has been bet up to 47 as of the time of the writing, which seems a little high. Of course, the Seahawks are coming off consecutive games that crossed 60 points, but the Giants have games of ZERO and 12 points scored this season. It’s worth noting that these teams met a little over a year ago in Seattle where they both struggled to move the ball and combined for 40 points.

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Seahawks Trends by Action Network

Pete Carroll is 34-18-3 ATS in his career at night – over the last 20 years, that makes him the best of any head coach (+$1,447).

Geno Smith has played nine games at night in his career. He is 2-7 SU, but 7-2 ATS. He’s been listed as an underdog in eight of those nine games.

In Carroll’s 13 years as head coach, the Seahawks are 8-4-1 toward the over on their win total – never won fewer than seven games.

Smith is 20-14-2 ATS as a 'dog, but only 8-11 ATS as a favorite.

Smith has started 12 games in his career on extended rest and his teams are just 3-9 SU, losing nine of his last 10 starts.

Recently, Caroll has also struggled with extended rest. Since 2020, the Seahawks are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in this spot, making Carroll the second-least profitable coach ATS ahead of just Bill Belichick.

NY Giants Trends by Action Network

Giants are 6-1-1 SU, 7-1 ATS off a straight-up loss under Brian Daboll. Daboll is the most profitable coach ATS after a SU loss since the start of last season.

Daniel Jones career: 23-34-1 SU, 32-26 ATS.
Home: 13-16 ATS (-$413)
Road/Neutral: 19-10 ATS (+$770)

Giants lost last week against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. Jones is 21-11 ATS in his career after a SU loss, including 18-6 ATS over the last four seasons after winning, but failing to cover the spread in Week 2 at Cardinals – Jones is the most profitable QB ATS after a loss since 2020.

Jones has 97 pass attempts this season, and he only has 226 passing yards after the catch, the fewest in the NFL with that many pass attempts.

Jones is 1-12 SU, 5-8 ATS at night in his career.

Jones is 0-5 SU at home in primetime (DAL X3, TB, PIT).

Only one other QB over the last 20 years is 0-4 SU or worse at home at night — Mac Jones, who is 0-4 SU.

Over the last 20 years, 96 QBs have made 5+ primetime starts, Daniel Jones’ 1-12 SU (7.7%) mark is the lowest win percentage (min. five primetime starts).

Teams after playing the 49ers were 1-16 SU last season. This year, they are 1-1 SU, but overall, they are 10-28 SU since the start of the 2021 season.

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ANDY LANG

Event: (279) Seattle Seahawks at (280) New York Giants: Darius Slayton Receiving Yards
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 2, 2023 8:15 PM EDT
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Over 40.5 (-105)

Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Over 40.5 (-105):
Darius Slayton has fallen short of recording 41+ receiving yards in 2 of his first 3 games but has been targeted a team high 17 times. The Seahawks have a vulnerable pass defense that allows the most passing yards (328) per game in the NFL. Slayton cleared this total against Seattle with 66 receiving yards last season. It will also be tough sledding for the rushing attack as the Seahawks only allow 2.9 yards per carry. Saquon Barkley is also doubtful, and Matt Breida only recorded 4 carries last week when he was out. This is the perfect recipe for a Slayton over in receiving yards.
Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

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ANDREW MCINNIS

Event: (279) Seattle Seahawks at (280) New York Giants: Darius Slayton Receiving Yards
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 2, 2023 8:15 PM EDT
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Over 40.5 (-105)

Daniel Jones has reached his pass completion over in two straight games and now has a match-up against a passing defence that ranks near the bottom of the league, right down there with the Broncos. Slayton is averaging 12 yards per catch this season and has seen 6+ targets in his last two games, he should benefit significantly from Seattle missing two starting Corners. Slayton is second on the team in Targets, earning a 19% target share. With a high total of 47 and the weak pass defence of the Seahawks that allowed Andy Dalton and Jared Goff to reach over 300 yards, Slayton should get his share of catches that get us over 40.5 rec yards.

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LAS VEGAS CRIS

Event: (279) Seattle Seahawks at (280) New York Giants
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 2, 2023 8:15 PM EDT
Free NFL Football Pick Today: Seattle Seahawks +105

Seattle Seahawks +105 is an actual client release. Seattle has far better metrics so far, and I see it as value not to have to lay points.