Saturday 10/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for WoodbinePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=wo1007zf.pdf&exp=10/09/2023&pds=WO_-_10/07/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/07/2023;TRACK_CODE=WO&SAP=FREEPICS)

Woodbine - Race 1

Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)/ $1 Swinger

Optional Claiming $32,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $111,000 • Post: 1:15P

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $9,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000, IF FOR $30,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (ANY MAIDEN RACES, AND ONLY CLAIMING RACES AND ONLY STARTER RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MILAGRE DO SOL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MILAGRE DO SOL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER MAGNATIZED: Hor se ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. INDY CHAMPAGNE: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 y ards if a Quarter Horse race).

1

MILAGRE DO SOL

4/1

4/1

5

SILVER MAGNATIZED

8/1

5/1

4

INDY CHAMPAGNE

8/5

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

5

SILVER MAGNATIZED

5

8/1

Stalker

90

86

63.2

76.4

72.4

1

MILAGRE DO SOL

1

4/1

Alternator/Stalker

83

84

91.6

82.5

75.5

4

INDY CHAMPAGNE

4

8/5

Alternator/Stalker

90

91

87.2

62.6

56.6

6

FISH MOONEY

6

5/1

Trailer

87

78

70.8

82.2

73.7

2

AMAZIN QUEEN

2

12/1

Trailer

88

84

53.2

78.6

71.6

3

ETHERIC

3

5/2

Trailer

82

80

29.8

76.9

69.4

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:37 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ded1007zz.htm&exp=10/09/2023&pds=DED_-_10/07/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/07/2023;TRACK_CODE=DED&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 86

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 7 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 12 FAREWELL TIME 8/1

# 7 LAUGHINGSAINTSSONG 9/2

# 9 LION HEART LEGEND 8/1

FAREWELL TIME is my choice and is a solid value bet given the line at 8/1. LAUGHINGSAINTSSONG - I would like this gelding on the jock and trainer numbers alone. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Gibson have shown very strong results as of late.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=ct1007zm.htm&exp=10/09/2023&pds=CT_-_10/07/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/07/2023;TRACK_CODE=CT&SAP=FREEPICS)

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:32pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 64

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 PRIMETIME JET (ML=4/1)

PRIMETIME JET - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Another way to judge class is EPS (earnings per start). This racer has the uppermost in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the end. I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong race within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SO COURAGEOUS (ML=7/5), #2 SPEIGHTS YOUR MIND (ML=5/2), #6 TRAPPE THE GOLD (ML=6/1),

SO COURAGEOUS - Didn't show much run last out. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. Not likely for this entrant to make an impact with no recent success in a short distance clash. TRAPPE THE GOLD - Any speed fig attained on an off track has to be taken with a grain of salt.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PRIMETIME JET - The data here is quite simple. This racer has a lot of early speed, so I'd calculate that he sets the early fractions, with a chance to win in wire to wire fashion.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 PRIMETIME JET to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=baq1007zm.htm&exp=10/09/2023&pds=BAQ_-_10/07/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/07/2023;TRACK_CODE=BAQ&SAP=FREEPICS)

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belmont at the Big A - Race #4 - Post: 1:40pm - Stakes - 12.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $500,000 Class Rating: 105 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S. (Grade 1)

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 STONE AGE (IRE) (ML=5/1)
#6 SOLDIER RISING (GB) (ML=5/1)

STONE AGE (IRE) - I seem to always make money betting Brown horses on the turf. That barn has a strong win percent for this distance/surface. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average class rating in the bunch. I do like foreign imports that have showed signs of class at a major foreign venue. SOLDIER RISING (GB) - This gelding notched a good fig of 105 in his last race. That rating should be high enough to win this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) (ML=9/5), #2 WAR LIKE GODDESS (ML=2/1), #5 PIONEERING SPIRIT (ML=8/1),

REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) - This animal hasn't shown much in the last pair of races. WAR LIKE GODDESS - Didn't meet expectations as the favorite twice in a row. PIONEERING SPIRIT - Garnered a mediocre speed figure last time out in the Bernard Baruch on September 4th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - SOLDIER RISING (GB) - With the best TrackMaster turf figure last race. This gelding is the thoroughbred to beat today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 STONE AGE (IRE) to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse RacingPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=fan1007zz.htm&exp=10/09/2023&pds=FAN_-_10/07/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/07/2023;TRACK_CODE=FAN&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 105

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 6 W W HOTSHOT 5/2

# 1 COMISKEY PARK 2/1

# 3 DEVIL'S TOWER 3/1

W W HOTSHOT is my choice. Has solid Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this race. Wagerers ought to take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses in this race. With Arrieta on top him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this race. COMISKEY PARK - Recorded a respectable speed rating last time out. This gelding with Bendezu in the irons makes him a solid contender. DEVIL'S TOWER - Has been moving in the most competitive company of the group of animals lately. Ran a sharp last race.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:38 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Freehold Raceway

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 12

4
4
ALBERT A' SCOOTIN
3/1
Ginsburg, Vincent - 15
472.35

3
3
SOUTHWIND ONYX
5/2
Dube, Daniel - 17
467.82

7
7
EAST BEACH
7/1
Marohn, Jim Jr - 28
466.27

1
1
KEEPAMERICAGREAT
7/2
Ahle, Johnathan - 13
449.59

8
8
VASARI N
6/1
Siegelman, Austin - 17
444.81

5
5
BESTONEYET HANOVER
8/1
Vallee, Shaun - 9
442.75

2
2
XMARXTHESPOT
20/1
Urbanski, Ned - 0
416.58

6
6
MY NAME IS HAIRY
15/1
Torro, Keith - 0
402.66

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:38 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 10

3
3
GREY HORIZON
4/5
Campbell, J Brandon - 24
383.68

2
2
TZILACATZIN
7/2
Brown, Christopher A - 3
322.30

5
5
ONE MORE ROCKY
6/1
Hennessy, Michael R - 15
310.96

6
6
NEVADA DRAGON
10/1
Sobey, Nathan K - 22
309.83

1
1
HF WINKNAT JENNA
4/1
Kelly, David A - 20
305.48

7
7
SHARK ATTACK
8/1
Giesbrecht, Philip - 12
302.72

4
4
CENALTA GUNFIRE
12/1
Hoerdt, Kelly O - 9
222.01

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:38 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 10 - Post: 3:42 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 94 - Purse:$16500 - NW $17,500

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 2 PAPPARDELLE 2/1

# 1 YANKS DUGOUT 5/2

# 5 P L NOTSONICE 7/2

All signs point to PAPPARDELLE for the contender. Has very good TrackMaster SRs and clearly has to be thought of for a wager in this contest. More than likely the class of the field of horses with an average rating of 95. A nice choice. Has to be given a look based on the very good speed rating achieved in the last race. YANKS DUGOUT - A very nice play in here as he has one of the highest winning rates in the group as well as tremendous credentials all around. Positively think these two have a special working relationship. Burke sending the horse out means a very good chance to get the victory. P L NOTSONICE - Is a very promising choice given the 90 speed rating from her most recent competition. Extremely profitable driver-trainer team, with a 58 ROI when working together.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:38 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Shenandoah DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 14 - Post: 4:54 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$8000 - VIRGINIA BREEDERS FUND STAKE 2ND LEG FOR 3 YEAR OLD FILLY TROTTERS. $2 WIN, PLACE & SHOW NO. 5 JOAN DEER RACES WITH HOPPLES

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 4 ROADGRACEMISSELLIE 5/2

# 1 STARLIGHT LOUNGE 8/5

# 5 JOAN DEER 7/1

All signs point to ROADGRACEMISSELLIE for the contender. Pace makes the race is a favorite saying of this brain trust. Pace numbers here point to a clear-cut play. If effort in the last gathering is any indication, this fine animal will have a very good shot here. High last race speed rating. A respectable win percentage has been recorded by horses coming from the 4 slot. STARLIGHT LOUNGE - This harness racer looks strong considering the high class stats. Don't toss out of any exotics. Recorded a 60 TrackMaster Speed Rating in last race. A duplicate affair here should get the score today. JOAN DEER - Very likely will improve with the equip change, back with hopples on today.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at AlbuquerqueAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming Stakes Trial - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 93

BILLY POWELL CLAIMING S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER. $250 TO ENTER. FIELD SIZE LIMITED TO TWELVE STARTERS. THE TOP FOUR FINISHERS OF LEG ONE OF THE CLAIMING SERIES HAVE PREFERENCE, BUT MUST PAY THE ENTRY FEE THE REMAINING OF THE FIELD WITH BE DETERMINED BY HIGHEST 2022-2023 EARNINGS AT THE TIME OF CLOSING NOMINATIONS. WEIGHTS FILLIES 119, 3 YR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 4 THIRTY SECONDS OUT 9/2

# 11 SURPRSINGLYPERFECT 6/1

# 2 FIRE WHEN READY 10/1

THIRTY SECONDS OUT has a very good shot to take this race. Will likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the midpoint of the contest. One of the best win percentages between this jock and conditioner make this gelding dangerous. SURPRSINGLYPERFECT - Has been racing very well and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run lately. FIRE WHEN READY - Could best this group of horses based on the speed figure - 84 - of his last contest. This entrant has been constatntly running well recently.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase SpecialAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Stakes - 10.0f on the Turf. Purse: $360000 Class Rating: 111

XXXIX LONGINES GRAN PREMIO LATINOAMERICANO S. - GRADE 1 STAKE, OPEN, 4 YO'S & UP,.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 1 NATAN (ARG) 3/1

# 10 IRWIN (ARG) 2/1

# 5 DOUTOR SURENO (BRZ) 5/1

NATAN (ARG) has a formidable shot to take this race. Has to be used in the exotic offerings. This colt must be given consideration just off the earnings per start in turf route events alone. He has garnered very good figures under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group of horses in this race. IRWIN (ARG) - He has been racing admirably lately while recording sharp speed figs. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group lately. DOUTOR SURENO (BRZ) - Ran a very strong last race. Like the finishes in the last couple of races.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 5:08pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $49,600 Class Rating: 71

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 TRILLING SONG (ML=9/2)
#9 CHERRY GARDENS (ML=4/1)
#11 DANZIGQUEEN (ML=12/1)

TRILLING SONG - This jockey and handler's animals have been producing a lucrative ROI. Speed ratings on the grass point to this animal as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. Day Phillips brings her back again. I suggest you stay with this strong mare. CHERRY GARDENS - Brooks brings her back again. I suggest you stay with this strong filly. Have to like this filly today. If you take a look at her PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each and every race. With 'blinkers-on' this filly should be very competitive. Is ranked number one in earnings per race. A strong effort in this race can increase the lifetime bankroll. DANZIGQUEEN - It looks like Salles had to 'know' this filly on September 1st when riding her for the first time. Back aloft again today. Dropped down in class last race out, and keeps in that lower level in this event. A good sign this equine is comfortable and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MASON'S MUSIC (ML=3/1), #12 PEACE IN PARADISE (ML=5/1), #3 HURRICANE GIZMO (ML=6/1),

MASON'S MUSIC - Difficult to bet on this runner in today's event. Make her show you something in a short distance race before you wager on her in a race of 7 1/2 furlongs. PEACE IN PARADISE - Speed figs of 56/42/23 are pointed the wrong direction. Tough to play any vulnerable equine in a sprint race if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months. HURRICANE GIZMO - Finished third in her most recent race with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #2 TRILLING SONG on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,9,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,9,11] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,9,11] with [2,9,11] with [2,7,9,11,12] with [2,7,9,11,12] Total Cost: $36

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 1-2) Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)

Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $12,700 • Post: 7:00P

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 7, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Front-runner. TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power R ating. FLAT DISCOUNT: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. URKILLINGMEBETH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.

2

TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY

12/1

3/1

1

FLAT DISCOUNT

5/2

6/1

5

URKILLINGMEBETH

3/1

7/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

2

TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY

2

12/1

Front-runner

72

62

68.4

52.6

47.6

1

FLAT DISCOUNT

1

5/2

Stalker

71

62

82.2

59.8

56.3

7

STYLISH PAINT

7

7/2

Stalker

57

60

65.8

52.4

42.4

6

MARKETABILITY

6

4/1

Trailer

55

55

26.4

57.6

47.6

5

URKILLINGMEBETH

5

3/1

Trailer

65

64

8.5

63.6

58.1

3

SO RED THE ROSE

3

30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

50

56

48.8

35.0

21.0

4

CASTLE OF CAYLEE

4

9/2

Alternator/Non-contender

76

71

21.0

57.4

49.4

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park

Santa Anita Park - Race 2

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) $0.50 Early Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5

SO $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 •Purse: $36,000 • Post: 1:30P

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $50,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DEVIL MOON: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layof f. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CASTLEKNOCK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DUTY FIRST: Today is a sprint and this is th e horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.

1

DEVIL MOON

6/1

7/2

4

CASTLEKNOCK

2/1

9/2

6

DUTY FIRST

9/2

7/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

1

DEVIL MOON

1

6/1

Front-runner

96

90

100.0

87.2

82.7

4

CASTLEKNOCK

4

2/1

Front-runner

96

95

88.9

87.0

82.0

5

TICKLE MY FANCY

5

6/1

Front-runner

72

80

85.7

71.4

61.4

3

MISTER BEAMS

3

12/1

Stalker

82

74

101.4

70.2

57.2

2

SANGER

2

5/2

Stalker

85

84

76.9

72.8

63.8

6

DUTY FIRST

6

9/2

Stalker

90

96

76.8

80.0

74.0

8

STORMING MACHINE

7

6/1

Stalker

86

83

70.1

80.5

73.5

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:42 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Santa Anita - Race #10 - Post: 5:41pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $63,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 ALVINA (FR) (ML=8/1)
#8 SECRETS TOLD (ML=7/2)
#10 JUST NAILS (ML=5/1)
#4 KISSED BY FIRE (ML=4/1)

ALVINA (FR) - Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. Franco was aboard this filly in the last race and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Don't often see a favorable ROI like +109. This rider/trainer twosome has done well together over the last 12 months. The thoroughbred with the top average Equibase class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This pony fits the bill. SECRETS TOLD - Mare had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. JUST NAILS - I just may give this one a good shot. Should rebound off last race where she did run outside the top 3, but was within 5 lengths at the end. Atop this horse on August 31st and Desormeaux is back again in the irons in this race. I like this filly. Has the uppermost earnings per race entered in this contest. KISSED BY FIRE - When Smith and Eurton combine forces on animals the ROI has been fantastic at +154. Look at this pattern of improvement. 85/88/93 are the last three speed ratings. Eurton has a very strong win pct in turf sprints. This filly should be in shape and ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 RAGTIME ROSE (ML=8/1), #7 GEM MINE (ML=8/1), #9 REAL FIRE (ML=8/1),

RAGTIME ROSE - The veterans will probably defeat this young horse today. GEM MINE - I'm prognosticating a less than stellar go of it out of her today. REAL FIRE - This filly hasn't had any positive efforts in sprint affairs in the last 60 days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #6 ALVINA (FR) to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

6 with [4,8,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

6 with [4,8,10] with [4,8,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

6 with [4,8,10] with [4,8,10] with [4,8,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

[6,8] with [4,6,8,10] with [4,6,8,10] with [4,5,6,8,10,11] with [4,5,6,8,10,11] Total Cost: $72

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:42 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold RacewayAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 8 - Post: 2:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$70000 - NEW JERSEY SIRE STAKES - SDF - 3 YEAR OLD COLT PACE FINAL D. DUBE CHOOSES NO. 3 OVER NO. 7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 1 STAY GROUNDED 7/5

# 7 PEPPERMINT MAN 6/1

# 6 TASTE OF HONEY 9/2

STAY GROUNDED most definitely gets the edge as the solid standardbred to beat this time. Positive thought - racing well enough to contend in this race. He has been performing strongly and the speed ratings are among the most solid in the field. With a 86 avg class number, this interesting entrant has one of the best class advantages in the field of starters. PEPPERMINT MAN - This gelding getting the victory wouldn't be impossible, a chance. TASTE OF HONEY - This contest could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed figure will confirm that. Seems to have a very good class edge based on the opponents he has raced against.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:42 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Red MileAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 6 - Post: 2:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$71000 - INTERNATIONAL STALLION STAKES #121 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS SPONSORED BY: TALL DARK STRANGER SYNDICATE & HANOVER SHOE FARMS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 1 NEWSROOM 8/5

# 2 BOSTON ROCKS 4/1

# 7 ROCK THE CAPTAIN N 12/1

Feel pretty confident putting some green stuff down on NEWSROOM. He has been performing solidly and the TrackMaster speed figs are among the finest in the group of horses. Many analyzers will recognize the fantastic speed rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this race. Substantial driver-trainer figures make this contender a bang-up choice. Most definitely will be putting money down in this race. BOSTON ROCKS - Tetrick fits this fine animal's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some magnificent results when working their magic together. With Tetrick in the bike, watch out for this standardbred to get the win. ROCK THE CAPTAIN N - Many analyzers favor this horse on the driver-trainer ratings alone. The better than average return on investment for contenders starting from the 7 hole makes this nice horse a terrific wager.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:43 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Loop

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 9

4
4
TUFF AS BUFF
2/1
Piwniuk, Blake F - 57
412.62

2
2
LITIZOR
5/1
Remillard, Richard A - 25
386.33

3
3
IMA MOMAS BOY
3/1
Fillion, Marc J - 13
348.48

5
5
GRAY ZEE
6/1
Grundy, Tyler D - 13
331.07

1
1
BUDDY LIGHT
4/1
Rey, Michel - 9
311.56

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:43 AM

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:43 AM

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKSKeeneland - Race #6

PICKS
NOTES

#7 Coppola
I honestly think you can make a case for most of these relative to their price in a really fun race, and this has held good form while proving competitive with some of the players he'll meet today. Draws well for a perfect first-jump trip if he's good enough.

#6 Olympic Runner
I really liked his last finishing effort on a course that wasn't super kind to those types this season, and he is probably going to find a similar closing trip while turning back a bit. He scored at this sharper trip two starts back, and I don't think he's out of the question here with something similar.

#2 Live in the Dream
He'll make his North American debut off an upset win at 28/1, and he probably has enough pace to get in the mix early on if he can avoid missing what is sometimes a troublesome American start at a short trip that doesn't leave a lot of room for error.

Race Summary
Coppola is one of many with a claim on this, and I'm hoping he'll be able to punch home from a dreamy spot at a midrange price. Think there are a few who are going to be looking to land that exact same trip, and this is a spot in which I really wouldn't argue with anyone.

Keeneland - Race #9

PICKS
NOTES

#7 Just Steel
Giving him a chance to bounce back a bit here, as he might find a pressing spot right up near the top with a bit more modest tempo while trying two turns. Decent price with a small shot today.

#9 Locked
He finished behind the top choice in his debut run before graduating by better than seven lengths when stretching out for the first time, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him with some more upside at this point. Can be tough.

#5 West Saratoga
He's aiming for his third straight today, and he has been in the mix with a couple of the interesting players lined up today. Worth a look if the price is right.

Race Summary
Just Steel has a little appeal for me in here, as he's fast enough to be right up on the splits, and I'm hoping a few of these will want to see if they can settle a bit while going long.

Keeneland - Race #11

PICKS
NOTES

#5 Miyagi
Get a look at him on the track and tote, but he's been drilling locally ahead of this and snags Gaffalione for the first trip to post. Could see it.

#7 Booth
He feels like the type that Asmussen might have ready to roll in a spot like this, as this team has done some serious work with similar horses in the past here. Obvious chance on paper.

#1 Nash
He's bred to be a good one and might be solid enough to win going short at first asking, but I'm more interested to see what this guy's bringing going a mile or so in his next start.

Race Summary
Think there are a few potentially interesting players out on the also-eligible list, so make sure to take another spin through after scratches. Miyagi has the most appeal on paper for me in here, and I like that Gaffalione signs on at first asking for a team that can get the right ones ready.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:43 AM

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKSLaurel Park - Race #2

PICKS
NOTES

#3 SHINY SLAM (4-1)
Rallied widest in lane to win in second try off Gonzalez claim after pace fell apart.

#5 EVERLY’S GIRL (1-1)
Proven allowance form against Cal breds, first start off cross-country journey.

#1 HAPPY CLOUDS (7-2)
First or second in 9 of 10 starts this year, all at 2-1 odds or less.

Race Summary
SHINY SLAM benefitted from an ideal set-up but raced 7-wide in the stretch to prevail. She surged late to defeat the second favorite, earning the top speed figure of her career. She has her work cut out to repeat, but the price should be right for a win and place wager.

Laurel Park - Race #3

PICKS
NOTES

#7 LA FANTASMA (7-2)
Tries to follow in turf footsteps of her dam in debut route attempt.

#3 WARIDI CANDI (10-1)
Took lead while in-hand on turn, out-gamed by the fave in improved try.

#1 CHICKEN PARM (9-2)
Russell firster has bloodlines to run long; sire was G-I winner of $2.9 million.

Race Summary
LA FANTASMA shows a three-month break in her workout tab, but she is in capable hands to win at first asking and her dam, Special Event, was multiple graded stakes-placed on turf. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #8

PICKS
NOTES

#3 CALL ANOTHER PLAY (4-1)
Ability showed on turf and dirt, expect another big effort in third start.

#6 CAP CLASSIQUE (5-2)
Stalked 3- and 4-wide, wore down 2-1 first-time starter to prevail.

#4 BEACHFRONT BREEZE (3-1)
Good speed, shorter distance, fourth track in as many starts.

Race Summary
CALL ANOTHER PLAY finished second in her debut to Determined Driver, who came back to finish second in a $75,000 stakes race at Timonium. She switched to the main track and drew away in the stretch despite lugging in when clear. Bet to win and place.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:44 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 7, 2023
Oct. 05, 2023
Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 7 | Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Year Olds

Analysis and Top contenders:

In a fantastic edition of the Breeders’ Futurity, a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in four weeks, nine horses line up and seven either won or finished second in their most recent races. ALL except one are turning two-turns for the first time, adding to the intrigue.

That being said, Brad Cox has what looks to be a pair of top contenders in Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2), both with good inside posts and having run faster than just about every other horse in the field in their most recent races. Cox saddled Essential Quality to win this race in 2020, off a maiden win at six furlongs, and that is exactly the same pattern for Awesome Road entering this race. Flattered when both the runner-up and fourth place finishers improved to win their next starts, Awesome Road is also bred to adore this longer trip, perhaps more than most, as four of the other six foals of his dam are dirt route winners, accounting for 12 wins between them. Not only did Cox get Essential Quality to win this race off just a six furlong maiden win, he also saddled Loggins to be second in the 2022 Breeders’ Futurity, as well as the 2019 and 2021 winners of the female equivalent of this race at Keeneland, the Alcibiades Stakes. With the second highest Equibase Speed Figure (93) to improve upon off the experience of a race, Awesome Road gets slight preference over his stablemate Timberlake.

Timberlake (2) has run three ties. The first effort resulted in a sixth of 10 finish after a slow start, but then when blinkers were added for his second start, the colt romped by nine lengths with a field high tying (with The Wine Steward (1) ) 96 figure. Sent from Kentucky to New York for the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and sent to post as the 2 to 1 favorite, Timberlake rallied from fourth to make the lead in the stretch before being overtaken and settling for second. Cox now takes blinkers off, likely designed to insure Timberlake can see if another horse is coming up on his inside or outside and dig in late. Also, from the inside, it is possible Timberlake may go for the lead from the start, which is how he earned his win in July. He does have tremendous early speed if needed and could prove tough to catch if he repeats that July 21 race.

The Wine Steward (1) has won all three races he’s run, all at six furlongs or less, but his pedigree suggests he should have no issue with the distance as he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso. Jockey Luis Saez, recently returned from an injury, rode The Wine Steward in his win on July 2 where the colt showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in fourth in the early stages before responding to his jockey’s urging to draw off late. Most recently in the Funny Cide Stakes, restricted to horses bred in New York, The Wine Steward earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure, as good as the one Timberlake earned in July, and if able to run as well on the stretch out to this distance, this colt has a shot at posting the upset, opening at 6 to 1.

Honorable mention goes to Northern Flame (8) and to Generous Tipper (6), who starts at odds of 20 to 1 and 15 to 1, respectively. Those are WAY TOO HIGH odds to ignore as these two come from the barn of strong trainer Kenny McPeek who won the 2021 Breeders’ Futurity with Rattle N Roll and who saddled Signalman to a second place finish in 2018. Generous Tipper finished fifth in his debut, on turf in July, then when switched to the main track finished second in early August before a rousing seven length win at a mile on August 28, a race in which stablemate Northern Flame was third, before improving to win on September 15. Generous Tipper earned a 90 figure for that win, and Northern Flame improved his speed figure nine points when he won the next month, so if the pattern holds Generous Tipper and Northern Flame can outrun their high odds here to help us with a profitable exacta or trifecta.

As to the likely favorite, perhaps prohibitively so, that is Locked (9), who starts at 7 to 5 odds. He won impressively by seven lengths at a mile at Saratoga last month and is making his third career start so can improve. On the other hand, he was second for the first half-mile of that race from the five post and his draw in the gate today might be disadvantageous as Northern Flame led from start to finish in his most recent race, as Just Steel (7) was on the lead early in his most recent race, as Generous Tipper led from start to finish in his last win and as Awesome Road, Timberlake and The Wine Steward all have some early speed and much better tactical position. As such, I’m not sold on Locked as much of a contender to win as the odds suggest, and will try to beat him.

Bets:

Win: Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2) should be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

The Wine Steward (1) can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 1 or more, and Northern Flame (8) and Generous Tipper (6) can be considered for win bets at 8 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2)

Box Awesome Road (3), Timberlake (2), Generous Tipper (6) and Northern Flame (8)

Trifecta:

Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2) over ALL over Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2)

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:46 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 7
Oct. 06, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 60% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:05 PM ET

BEST BET: #8 CROWN THAT SAINT

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
3-1
8
Crown That Saint
I Ortiz Jr.

PLACE
4-1
4
Uncle Eddie
J Castellano

SHOW
6-1
2
Rudy Rudy Rudy
R Silvera

WILD CARD
7-2
1
Guanare
J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1
9-2
6
Badlands Ruler
T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Cowboy Luke
J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #2 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:36 PM ET

BEST BET: #1 WARRIOR RICHARD

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
5-2
1
Warrior Richard
I Ortiz Jr.

PLACE
3-1
5
Gut Feeling
M Franco

SHOW
7-2
4
Strapped
J Lezcano

WILD CARD
4-1
8
Whats Up Doc
J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1
10-1
2
South Street
L R Rivera Jr.

ALTERNATE 2
12-1
7
Achilles Heel
R Silvera

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX

RACE #3 $200,000 STAKES
1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 WAYA STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
8-1
4
Personal Best
J Castellano

PLACE
15-1
1
Idea Generation
F Geroux

SHOW
3-5
5
McKulick
I Ortiz Jr.

WILD CARD
4-5
7
Movie Moxy
J Lezcano

ALTERNATE 1
2-1
8
Peak Popularity
F Geroux

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
6
Sister Otoole
F Lynch

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX

COMMENTS: PERSONAL BEST is a consistent performer that ran her best race on Aqueduct grass. IDEA GENERATION was much better early on her last and leapt forward in the only other second up start. MCKULICK has dominating late pace and could be at her best in the third start after a layoff. MOVIE MOXY is out top pick if the race is moves to the main track.

RACE #4 $500,000 STAKES
1 1/2 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC GRADE I

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
2-1
2
War Like Goddess
J Alvarado

PLACE
9-5
4
Rebels Romance
W Buick

SHOW
30-1
3
Grand Sonata
M Franco

WILD CARD
5-1
6
Soldier Rising
D Davis

ALTERNATE 1
10-1
8
Astronaut
K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
5
Pioneering Spirit
J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

COMMENTS: WAR LIKE GODDESS ran the highest last race speed rating by 6 points. REBELS ROMANCE has five wins in six races at the distance and wins or runs off the board. GRAND SONATA is a longshot with a good chance in his third start off the bench. SOLDIER RISING showed more interest early in his last and usually saves his best for the stretch run.

RACE #5 $400,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $400,000 FRIZETTE STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
2-1
6
Emery
M Franco

PLACE
9-5
2
Life Talk
I Ortiz Jr.

SHOW
9-2
1
Irish Maxima
J Rendon

WILD CARD
3-1
5
Just F Y I
J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1
10-1
4
Central Avenue
J Castellano

ALTERNATE 2
15-1
3
Princess Indy
J Torres

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

COMMENTS: EMERY won her debut with ease with a first class mid move. LIFE TALK is a head from being undefeated in two and has a bullet work between races. IRISH MAXIMA is unbeaten in two wins and is yet to be challenged. JUST F Y I was well bet in a solid debut with little falloff from gate to wire.

RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 BELMONT TURF SPRINT GRADE III

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
8-1
7
Todays Flavor
J Castellano

PLACE
8-1
3
Alogon
A Adorno

SHOW
10-1
12
Nothing Better
J Rendon

WILD CARD
5-2
1
Big Invasion
I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1
6-1
11
Dancing Buck
K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 2
5-1
9
Thin White Duke
J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 3/7/12 BOX, 1/3/12 BOX

COMMENTS: TODAYS FLAVOR should be on the front trying to take them gate to wire. ALOGON hit the board in seven of his eight turf efforts. NOTHING BETTER finished second by a head in his last race and has a bullet work between starts. BIG INVASION missed by a neck last out and has a pair of sharp maintenance works since.

RACE #7 $100,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 IMHAVINGAMOMENT

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
2-1
2
Imhavingamoment
J Alvarado

PLACE
8-1
4
Royal Poppy
D Davis

SHOW
9-2
1
Security Code
J Lezcano

WILD CARD
4-1
8
Obrigada
I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1
7-2
3
White Chocolate
J Castellano

ALTERNATE 2
10-1
6
Cupids Girl
M Franco

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

RACE #8 $500,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:46 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 CHAMPAGNE STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
6-5
6
Fierceness
I Ortiz Jr.

PLACE
8-1
5
El Grande O
K Carmouche

SHOW
7-2
4
General Partner
M Franco

WILD CARD
3-1
3
Timberlake
F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Gold Sweep
J Lezcano

ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Air Cav
D Davis

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

COMMENTS: FIERCENESS won his debut by 11 lengths as the 6 to 5 favorite. EL GRANDE O has some early speed with Kendrick Carmouche riding which should be a good combination. GENERAL PARTNER tied for the highest last speed rating in dominating maiden score. TIMBERLAKE has been the betting favorite in each of his three starts winning one in dominant fashion.

RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES
1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 JOCKEY CLUB INVITATIONAL GRADE III

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
2-1
1
Measured Time
W Buick

PLACE
8-1
2
Faraday
M Franco

SHOW
7-2
3
Webslinger
J Castellano

WILD CARD
10-1
6
Classic Catch
F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1
8-1
4
Fearless Soldier
I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 2
5-1
7
Anglophile
D Cannon

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

COMMENTS: MEASURED TIME is unbeaten in three and ships in from England. FARADAY is improving from race to race to race and would be key for the win if the trend continues. WEBSLINGER is trending in the right direction and hit 100 on the speed gun in his last. CLASSIC CATCH ran the highest last race speed figure by 6 points.

RACE #10 $100,000 ALLOWANCE
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:53 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
5-1
5
Makers Candy
M Franco

PLACE
2-1
10
Frat Pack
I Ortiz Jr.

SHOW
10-1
2
Lafittes Fleet
R Silvera

WILD CARD
6-1
1A
Full Moon Madness
T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1
8-1
11
Oceans Reserve
J Castellano

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
7
Shaky Pants
J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 5-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/5/10 BOX, 1/2/10 BOX

RACE #11 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:24 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
6-1
1
Smokin Hot Kitty
K Carmouche

PLACE
9-2
8
Bernt Again
M Franco

SHOW
20-1
11
Russiarussiarussia
F Geroux

WILD CARD
5-1
9
Diamond Status
I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1
9-5
12
Roman Goddess
M Franco

ALTERNATE 2
4-1
5
Miss San Gabriel
J Castellano

* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/8/11 BOX, 8/9/11 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:47 AM

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 7
Oct. 06, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
2-1
6
A La Carte
L Saez

PLACE
12-1
8
Fan the Fire
G Corrales

SHOW
7-2
4
Captain Jack
Y Navas

WILD CARD
3-1
5
Debate
J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1
10-1
1
Master of Arms
F Prat

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Pennys Prospect
A Achard

* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX

RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
4-1
1
Linzer
J Rosario

PLACE
9-2
13
Bergen
F Prat

SHOW
9-2
3
Know Who You Are
A Achard

WILD CARD
10-1
6
Gallant Mischief
T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1
10-1
15
Higginsville
F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Promissio
J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 1-13 BOX, 13-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/3/13 BOX, 3/6/13 BOX

RACE #3 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 INSENSITIVE

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
7-2
7
Insensitive
F Arrieta

PLACE
9-2
2
Devil Blue Dress
L Saez

SHOW
3-1
4
Take Time to Dream
J R Velazquez

WILD CARD
6-1
5
Icicles
J Gilligan

ALTERNATE 1
4-1
6
Three Polks
R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
1
Crushed Ice
J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #4 $120,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 SAFFRON MOON

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
5-2
5
Saffron Moon
F Prat

PLACE
7-2
1
Willakia
T Gaffalione

SHOW
4-1
13
Im So Sorry
L Saez

WILD CARD
6-1
6
Quality Star
J Talamo

ALTERNATE 1
12-1
10
Beechnut Trophy
J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 2
6-1
14
Morgs World
T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-13 BOX, 13-6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/5/13 BOX, 1/6/13 BOX

RACE #5 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 BAXLEY

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
9-2
2
Baxley
G Corrales

PLACE
2-1
3
Alder
T Gaffalione

SHOW
8-1
9
Haul
L Saez

WILD CARD
6-1
1
Normandy Hero
A Achard

ALTERNATE 1
3-1
4
Valentine Candy
R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 2
10-1
7
Stormquist
B J Hernandez Jr.

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX

RACE #6 $350,000 STAKES
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 WOODFORD STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
9-2
8
Our Shot
T Gaffalione

PLACE
12-1
9
Kaufymaker
L Saez

SHOW
4-1
11
Beer Can Man
F Prat

WILD CARD
3-1
2
Live In The Dream
S Kirrane

ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Bad Beat Brian
C A Emigh

ALTERNATE 2
12-1
7
Coppola
M Garcia

* EXACTA: 3,8,9,11 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 3,8,9,11 BOX

COMMENTS: OUR SHOT is a fan of the distance with three wins along with a second and third is a half dozen tries. KAUFYMAKER tends to run well off the bench with three wins in the last four times. BEER CAN MAN is another that fancies the distance with six wins in 10 races and just one in six at any other length. LIVE IN THE DREAM makes his US debut after facing tough group rated races in England.

RACE #7 $350,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 TBRED CLUB OF AMERICA STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
5-2
1
Wicked Halo
T Gaffalione

PLACE
2-1
6
Yuugiri
F Prat

SHOW
7-2
4
Static Fire
C A Torres

WILD CARD
8-1
2
Fire On Time
M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1
8-1
5
Happy Soul
J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 2
9-2
3
Last Leaf
L Saez

* EXACTA: 1,2,4,6 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1,6/1.2,4,6/1,2,4,5,6

COMMENTS: WICKED HALO is a consistent top end performer with three wins and three seconds in seven starts at the distance. YUUGIRI loves the distance with five wins in six races. STATIC FIRE does her best when she challenges for the lead and should be no worse than second early. FIRE ON TIME ran better race internals in her last and will likely up her game in the second start after a layoff.

RACE #8 $750,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $750,000 FIRST LADY STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
4-5
3
In Italian
J Rosario

PLACE
10-1
1
Gina Romantica
T Gaffalione

SHOW
15-1
5
Gams Mission
A Beschizza

WILD CARD
3-1
2
Whitebeam
F Prat

ALTERNATE 1
10-1
8
Evvie Jets
J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Jumbly
J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 1,2,3,5 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 3/1,2,4,5,8/1,2,5

COMMENTS: IN ITALIAN is coming off the bench after some rest. She has four wins and a second in the last five first up runs. GINA ROMANTICA won her lone race at Keeneland with one of her best performances and would be a top contender on a wet dirt track too. GAMS MISSIONs last race might have been a win if the jockey did not drop the crop. WHITEBEAM could be the best horse in the race if she is ready coming off a two month rest.

RACE #9 $600,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:14 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $600,000 BREEDERS FUTURITY GRADE I

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
7-5
9
Locked
J L Ortiz

PLACE
8-1
1
The Wine Steward
L Saez

SHOW
3-1
3
Awesome Road
F Prat

WILD CARD
7-2
2
Timberlake
F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1
20-1
5
West Saratoga
G Corrales

ALTERNATE 2
15-1
6
Generous Tipper
B J Hernandez Jr.

* EXACTA: 9/1,2,3,5

* TRIFECTA: 9/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,5,6

COMMENTS: LOCKED looks like he has a legit chance to be a serious player for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. THE WINE STEWARD is undefeated in three and should improve in the second start off the sidelines. AWESOME ROAD ran a robust race with very little falloff in his debut and could have more endurance today. TIMBERLAKE has been the betting favorite in all three starts and won the only race when he did not experience trouble. A clean trip is all he needs.

RACE #10 $1,000,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M TURF MILE STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
5-2
5
Up to the Mark
J L Ortiz

PLACE
2-1
1
Master of The Seas
J Doyle

SHOW
6-1
9
Annapolis
F Prat

WILD CARD
8-1
2
Indestructible
R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1
5-1
4
Set Piece
F Geroux

ALTERNATE 2
30-1
6
English Bee
J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 1,2,5,9 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1,3,9/1,2,3,5,9/1,3,9

COMMENTS: UP TO THE MARK should be right off the pace at the jump and can make amazing mid moves that propel him to the finish line with a lot of momentum. MASTER OF THE SEAS trainer Charles Appleby wins graded stakes races at an amazing 43 percent. ANNAPOLIS has won more than 1 million dollars at the distance. INDESTRUCTIBLE ran in seven consecutive group rated races in Europe and makes his US debut today.

RACE #11 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
3-1
1
Nash
F Prat

PLACE
9-2
4
Rapoport
J L Ortiz

SHOW
4-1
7
Booth
R Santana Jr.

WILD CARD
4-1
14
Agoo
J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1
6-1
5
Miyagi
T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Hammerstein
C A Torres

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-14 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 4/7/14 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:47 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 7
Oct. 06, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
2-1
8
Riley G
J J Hernandez

PLACE
6-1
2
Side by Side
A Aguilar

SHOW
5-2
4
Miss Monarch Bay
G Franco

WILD CARD
4-1
1
Report
H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1
6-1
9
Lisas Nonno
A Fresu

ALTERNATE 2
12-1
6
Sultry Kitten
J Torrealba

* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #2 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
6-1
1
Devil Moon
J Bravo

PLACE
5-2
2
Sanger
J J Hernandez

SHOW
9-2
6
Duty First
R A Vazquez

WILD CARD
2-1
4
Castleknock
H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1
12-1
3
Mister Beams
J Torrealba

ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Storming Machine
V Cheminaud

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #3 $200,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:03 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 CHANDELIER STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
5-2
8
Laurent
E A Maldonado

PLACE
3-1
7
Dua
J J Hernandez

SHOW
4-1
1
Chatalas
A Fresu

WILD CARD
8-1
5
Autumn Chill
H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1
5-1
6
Gate to Paradise
K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 2
5-1
2
Scalable
M E Smith

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX

COMMENTS: LAURENT was way wide last out and just needs a little better trip here. DUA won her debut for Bob Baffert before faltering in a Grade III. She comes back fresh again. CHATALAS ran faster at 7 furlongs than she did in 5 and a half for her debut. AUTUMN CHILL increased his speed figures in both races post debut and has a few maintenance works between races.

RACE #4 $100,000 STAKES
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 SPEAKEASY STAKES

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
5-2
2
Slider
H I Berrios

PLACE
5-1
6
Mysticism
R A Vazquez

SHOW
4-1
1
Dark Vintage
J J Hernandez

WILD CARD
6-1
9
Lord Prancealot
K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1
15-1
3
Charge for Gold
R Gonzalez

ALTERNATE 2
6-1
10
April Vintage
A Fresu

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX

COMMENTS: SLIDER ran a last race speed figure 13 points higher than the closest foe. MYSTICISM went wire to wire in her debut and should be close to the front again today. DARK VINTAGE has a win and third in two races at the distance and some nice works between starts. LORD PRANCEALOT tries turf for the first time but should have the breeding to be successful.

RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET

BEST BET: #9 STAY ON THE FENCE

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
3-1
9
Stay On the Fence
M Gutierrez

PLACE
7-2
3
Petesoldfashioned
E A Maldonado

SHOW
6-1
1
Magic Spoon
T J Pereira

WILD CARD
6-1
5
Stolen Treasure
G Franco

ALTERNATE 1
7-2
6
Red On Sunday
A Fresu

ALTERNATE 2
10-1
8
Jarama
J Torrealba

* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #6 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:39 PM ET

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
3-1
8
Lord Bullingdon
J J Hernandez

PLACE
4-1
14
Ngannou
U Rispoli

SHOW
5-1
4
Andreadytorumble
U Rispoli

WILD CARD
8-1
3
Stay Hot
A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1
6-1
9
Sand Bagger
M E Smith

ALTERNATE 2
6-1
12
Coach Prime
R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 8-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/8/14 BOX, 3/4/14 BOX

RACE #7 $20,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:11 PM ET

BEST BET: #9 BAGS GOLD

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
3-1
9
Bags Gold
E A Maldonado

PLACE
7-2
6
Book Smart
G Franco

SHOW
12-1
11
Trusty Rusty
E Payeras

WILD CARD
20-1
3
Curly Esa
A Ayuso

ALTERNATE 1
6-1
8
Comradery
T J Pereira

ALTERNATE 2
12-1
10
Egomania
E Hernandez

* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 6/9/11 BOX, 3/6/11 BOX

RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES
1 1/4 MILES ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 7:41 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 RODEO DRIVE STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
4-1
4
Closing Remarks
J J Hernandez

PLACE
9-5
6
Didia
V Cheminaud

SHOW
20-1
5
Stoic Luna
H I Berrios

WILD CARD
2-1
2
Anisette
U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Turnerloose
A Fresu

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Juncture
M E Smith

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

COMMENTS: CLOSING REMARKS improved from race to race and might continue the trend in the third up outing. DIDIA has eight wins and two seconds in 12 career races including the highest last race speed figure. STOIC LUNA won three in a row and is not that far from reaching the winners circle in seven of the last eight. ANISETTE is unbeaten in thee since arriving from England.

RACE #9 $300,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:11 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
1-1
2
Muth
J J Hernandez

PLACE
12-1
4
Wine Me Up
R A Vazquez

SHOW
4-1
3
Next Level
K J Desormeaux

WILD CARD
15-1
8
El Magnifico
H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1
4-1
6
Be You
U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Raging Torrent
A Fresu

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX

COMMENTS: MUTH ran the top last race speed figure and has beaten a few of the other top contenders. WINE ME UP won his debut despite a bobble at the start. NEXT LEVEL is moving up the ladder race after race and could benefit from going a little longer here. EL MAGNIFICO has been consistent in his first two races and might enjoy a longer run today.

RACE #10 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:41 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 KISSED BY FIRE

PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY

WIN
4-1
4
Kissed by Fire
M E Smith

PLACE
8-1
9
Real Fire
U Rispoli

SHOW
7-2
8
Secrets Told
K Frey

WILD CARD
5-1
10
Just Nails
K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Gem Mine
J Valdivia Jr.

ALTERNATE 2
8-1
2
Ragtime Rose
R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX

* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 8/9/10 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:47 AM

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 7View Consensus for 10/08/2023 (https://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php?race_date=10/08/2023)
View Consensus for 10/11/2023 (https://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php?race_date=10/11/2023)
View Consensus for 10/12/2023 (https://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php?race_date=10/12/2023)
View Consensus for 10/13/2023 (https://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php?race_date=10/13/2023)

Scott Hazelton
Tom Leach
Jeremy Plonk
Caton Bredar
Kim Nelson

1
6 A La Carte
5 Debate
3 Penny's Prospect
4 Captain Jack
2 Gunner Bay
3 Penny's Prospect
3 Penny's Prospect
5 Debate
6 A La Carte
1 Master of Arms
6 A La Carte
5 Debate
6 A La Carte
5 Debate
4 Captain Jack

2
6 Gallant Mischief
5 Vesture
1 Linzer
5 Vesture
1 Linzer
6 Gallant Mischief
6 Gallant Mischief
1 Linzer
3 Know Who You Are
1 Linzer
6 Gallant Mischief
7 Honky Tonk Highway
6 Gallant Mischief
2 Surf City
1 Linzer

3
6 Three Polks
5 Icicles
7 Insensitive
6 Three Polks
3 Raggity Sand
7 Insensitive
6 Three Polks
2 Devil Blue Dress
3 Raggity Sand
4 Take Time to Dream
1 Crushed Ice
2 Devil Blue Dress
4 Take Time to Dream
2 Devil Blue Dress
6 Three Polks

4
5 Saffron Moon
8 Zawish
1 Willakia
1 Willakia
13 I'm So Sorry
5 Saffron Moon
1 Willakia
5 Saffron Moon
6 Quality Star
5 Saffron Moon
6 Quality Star
11 Watch This Birdie
5 Saffron Moon
1 Willakia
2 Lady Arsinoe

5
4 Valentine Candy
2 Baxley
9 Haul
3 Alder
4 Valentine Candy
2 Baxley
4 Valentine Candy
3 Alder
9 Haul
3 Alder
2 Baxley
7 Stormquist
4 Valentine Candy
3 Alder
9 Haul

6
1 Bad Beat Brian
8 Our Shot
9 Kaufymaker
9 Kaufymaker
8 Our Shot
2 Live In The Dream (IRE)
5 Arzak
4 Eye Witness
8 Our Shot
2 Live In The Dream (IRE)
1 Bad Beat Brian
9 Kaufymaker
6 Olympic Runner
1 Bad Beat Brian
11 Beer Can Man

7
6 Yuugiri
1 Wicked Halo
5 Happy Soul
1 Wicked Halo
4 Static Fire
6 Yuugiri
2 Fire On Time
1 Wicked Halo
5 Happy Soul
6 Yuugiri
5 Happy Soul
4 Static Fire
1 Wicked Halo
6 Yuugiri
4 Static Fire

8
3 In Italian (GB)
2 Whitebeam (GB)
4 Jumbly (GB)
2 Whitebeam (GB)
3 In Italian (GB)
5 Gam's Mission
2 Whitebeam (GB)
3 In Italian (GB)
4 Jumbly (GB)
3 In Italian (GB)
2 Whitebeam (GB)
4 Jumbly (GB)
3 In Italian (GB)
2 Whitebeam (GB)
1 Gina Romantica

9
3 Awesome Road
9 Locked
1 The Wine Steward
3 Awesome Road
9 Locked
2 Timberlake
6 Generous Tipper
2 Timberlake
9 Locked
3 Awesome Road
9 Locked
1 The Wine Steward
1 The Wine Steward
9 Locked
6 Generous Tipper

10
5 Up to the Mark
9 Annapolis
1 Master of The Seas (IRE)
1 Master of The Seas (IRE)
5 Up to the Mark
4 Set Piece (GB)
4 Set Piece (GB)
1 Master of The Seas (IRE)
5 Up to the Mark
1 Master of The Seas (IRE)
9 Annapolis
5 Up to the Mark
5 Up to the Mark
1 Master of The Seas (IRE)
3 Stitched

11
3 Hammerstein
7 Booth
5 Miyagi
7 Booth
4 Rapoport
1 Nash
5 Miyagi
9 Who's the King
1 Nash
5 Miyagi
3 Hammerstein
1 Nash
5 Miyagi
1 Nash
4 Rapoport

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:48 AM

SCOTT HAZELTON

Happy Fall Stars Saturday at Keeneland!

1st Race
6-5-3

#6 A La Carte takes a big step down in competition today and face the horse in his last race that won Four in a Row., including finishing second to one of the best horses in training, Cody’s Wish. #5 Debate had a very white trip last time out against a tougher group. Maybe wide today but this competition should be more to his liking. #3 Penny’s Prospect will be quick early on, but I’m worried this race may just be a hair too far for him. His trainer is coming off of a great Churchill Downs meet in September.

2nd Race
6-5-1

#6 Gallant Mischief rent a very good race in the early stages of his debut effort back at the beginning of September in New York at Saratoga. His trainer Al Stall, Junior is excellent when moving horses to dirt races off of a turf effort winning 21% of the time in those situations as this horse has found himself in. #1 Linzer has run twice both finishing seconds, including his first race, which was a second to eventual G1 winner, Nutella Fella. That experience should go along way today.

3rd Race
6-5-7

#6 Three Polks moves to dirt off of one turf race and her trainer. John Ortiz has a very good win percentage when horses go turf to dirt winning at 18%. #5 Icicles has shown some talent in her two races, but hasn't raced in nine months as she gets it for her Keeneland's debut. Blinkers are being added for the new trainer that has her now John Ennis. Grow up potential. #7 Insensitive comes in from Iowa with a lot of seasoning as she gets it for her seventh start. It's an aggressive move, but don't be surprised if this filly runs big.

4th Race
5-8-1

#5 Saffron Moon looks like she's sitting on a win based on her most recent start almost 2 months ago at Saratoga or she was barely beaten. Tough to pick against. #8 Zawish has Earlie speed but I don't think she needs to have lead in this race and she's been very consistent over the course of her career which goes a long way. #1 Willakia has one here in the past that Keeneland and his versatile sort can close from off the pace, or sit close to lead. Definitely a win candidate, even though she's my third choice in the race.

5th Race
4-2-9

#4 Valentine Candy what is a sharp winner on the view, but then could not hang in the G1 Hopeful. He should move up on the drop down in competition, even though this is not an easy race. #2 Baxley is trained by Larry Rivelli who calls this horse a “runner.” That's enough for me, even though he moves into much tougher spot. You should be good enough. #9 Haul also exits a very tough race at Saratoga and he is one that was very good on debut much like #4 Valentine Candy. A big fit here.

6th Race
1-8-9

#1 Bad Beat Brian nearly beat Caravel in the G2 Shakertown here in the spring. It's hard not to like this horse, and respect his grit and true ability. Hopefully today's the day for him at Keeneland as he seeks his first win in start five of his career. #8 Our Shot write a big race here at Keeneland to win by three links in the spring, and beat the war horse, Bound for Nowhere, doing so. He's absolutely good enough to bounce back after of narrow defeat in his most recent race, a month ago in a stake at Saratoga. #9 Kaufymaker is a filly taking on the boys, something she's very familiar with here at Keeneland especially. It's a Wesley Ward trained filly who no doubt is speedy enough early to beat this group and she's ridden by Luis Saez, who had a wonderful opening day yesterday at Keeneland.

7th Race
6-1-5

#6 Yuugiri was spectacular in her most recent win beating her main foes that she faces today. She bobbled at the store, but quickly recovered, and made easy work of that group over at Churchill Downs. Another effort like that will be good enough to handle this salty group. #1 Wicked Halo has been one of the best female sprinters in the game over the last couple of years. She didn't bring her best last time out when Yuugiri beat her on the Square but this is a horse that won the G2 Lexus Raven Run her last fall and have to assume she has a bounce back effort in her. #5 Happy Soul seems to be a crack below. The two horses mentioned above, but she's definitely worth considering finishing in the top three. She gets blinkers
back on today, which is an interesting move and trainer. Wesley Ward wins 30% of the time when he puts blinkers back on a horse or previously worn them.

8th Race
3-2-4

#3 In Italian has been a dominant force on the grade 1 front in the female turf division for several years. She loves it here at Keeneland and won this race last year, and her speed makes her so dangerous. Every time she races she was defeated in her last race by #2 Whitebeam but that was going at a longer distance, and I think that the 1 mile distance today gives the edge back to In Italian. #4 Jumbly is a filly shipping in from Europe, who has faced one of the best female turf horses, if not the best in the world, and her most recent race, a filly named Tahiiyra. She ran well in her only start in the United States in New York and she's a filly that will try to close late and try to catch them at this mile distance, which may be tough to do with the mile speed that In Italian possesses and it's so good at carrying.

9th Race
3-9-1

#3 Awesome Road what is sensational in his only start as he gets it to make start two of his career. A horse named Loggins attempted the same thing in this race last year for trainer, Brad Cox, and came inches away from winning. This colt has the talent to do it today for sure. #9 Locked Took a huge leap forward, and his most recent start and dashed away from a field. He has one race more of experience than Awesome Road which certainly is a plus and has gone two turns unlike him as well. Is equally as good so far and this is a tough pair to split for the win. #1 The Wine Steward is unbeaten in three starts and has already won two stakes. Tough horse and battle tested even more than the two horses mentioned above.

10th Race
5-9-1

#5 Up to the Mark is the best male turf horse in America in my opinion. He got behind a slow pace last spring here at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile and that cost him a win. His connections will have learned from that, and this horse should run huge today. #9 Annapolis won this Grade 1 last year in style, but has not been able to replicate something cents similar. This will be a stiff test, but he should be right there in the end at the very least. #1 Master of The Seas just toyed with the field in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile well, shipping in from Europe. This is a better group he faces today so he does have to answer that question which will be a difficult one for him.

11th Race
3-7-5

#3 Hammerstein should be a good price in his bred to win early. I'll take my shot against this group today that is filled with inexperienced horses. #7 Booth is it very well bred colt whose half brother just won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and is a leading contender for the BC Classic in a few weeks. He's definitely an interesting horse with a world of breeding and the right connections to win early in his career as he make his debut today. #5 Miyagi has been working extremely fast for his debut, and that is very difficult to ignore today.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:49 AM

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 7, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Fall Stars Saturday is the biggest day of the meeting with an 11-race card that features the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf Mile, Grade 1 First Lady and Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity among 5 stakes. Keeneland joins Santa Anita for a special $1 Breeders’ Cup Challenge Pick 6 matching the Thoroughbred Club of America (KEE); Turf Mile (KEE); Breeders' Futurity (KEE); American Pharoah Stakes (SAP); Chandelier Stakes (SAP) and the Rodeo Drive Stakes (SAP).

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez won 3 races here opening day Friday. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 6,8,10 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies are in the forecast while temperatures will fight to get into the low 60s with an overnight low in the upper 30s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claiming sprinters on dirt open the afternoon and the early pick five. Horses from Churchill Downs have easily fared best in these N2L claimers in Fall Meets, but also keep tabs on the Horseshoe Indianapolis crowd, whose noticeable impact here also includes an average 10-1 price. That’s giving me hope for Penny’s Prospect at what should be a big price when you have A La Carte making a big and suspicious class drop from Saratoga for Bill Mott (who rarely runs a claimer here), as well as Master of Arms coming off a long layoff since March.

2nd Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the early pick four kickoff. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44%. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior (like Toolpusher and Surf City here). Gallant Mischief is training strongly for Mark Casse and could attract a lot of attention. Sire Into Mischief is responsible for more Kee dirt winners than any other sire since the ’14 surface change. Linzer doesn’t fit the trends, per se, but his debut second to Nutella Fella looked even better when that one upset the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga next time out.

3rd Race
Elder maiden special weight sprinters extend to 7 furlongs in this one. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet elder MSW dirt races lean extremely hard to experienced horses. Only about 6% have been won by first-time starters. Devil Blue Dress is working like she’s going to get bet hard for Dale Romans and is another Into Mischief with pedigree to play locally. Churchill preppers far and away have been most successful, which serves Three Polks (by sharp Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed) and Dream On Stormy well here. Horses with tactical early speed have been most effective in the 7-furlong offerings at this level.

4th Race
Second-level (N2X) allowance turf routers match up over 1-1/16 miles. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet turf route allowance races is for favorites to underperform (just 27%) with an average winner at 6-1 odds. These races about 40% of their winners come evenly split via Kentucky Downs and New York (Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct) with a big gap back to Churchill Downs next-best. The average winner of these races is nearly 4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 17% of winners leading that that point. No trainer has won more Fall Meet turf ALW routes here since 2006 than Graham Motion’s 25 (Willakia). Willakia, Saffron Moon and Quality Star all are local course winners in a field where the bulk have never attempted the Kee lawn.

5th Race
The pick 6 will open here in an entry-level (N1X) allowance dirt sprint at 6 furlongs. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. But horses like Stormquist and Normandy Hero via CD don’t appear to have any real edges on paper. Early speed is much more effective here at 6F. The average winner is only a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile at 6F, compared to 2 lengths back in the 7F affairs, a noticeable difference. Valentine Candy wired his debut at Saratoga before pressing the G1 Hopeful pace and should be forward. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 4 previous Fall Meet 2YO ALW wins are second-most to Brad Cox’s 6, who sends out Alder in this spot. Both barns are around 30% in these kind of spots at Kee.

6th Race
An all-stakes pick 5 begins here as well as the Keeneland Turf Pick Three with the Woodford Stakes for grass sprinters. Favorites have won this race the last 3 years and 6 of the last 9. In the last 14 years, only 2 winners have been above 7-1 odds. While Golden Pal was good enough to wire this race the past 2 years, note the average winner the past 17 years has been 2-3/4 lengths behind after the first half-mile. There’s been no superior prep path with 13 different venues producing the last 17 winners. Trainer Wesley Ward has won this race 3 times since 2014 and sends out Eye Witness and Kaufymaker, the latter a local allowance winner at this trip during the ’22 Fall Meet. Note Ward’s 46 such wins here in the database dwarf everyone else (Todd Pletcher 8, Rusty Arnold 7 are a distant next-best). Joel Rosario is Kee’s top turf sprint jockey and partners with Arzak. Posts 3-4-5 account for 4 of the 6 wins in the Woodford when boasting a field of 12 in our database.

7th Race
The Breeders’ Cup Challenge Pick 6 begins in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, as well as an all-stakes pick four. Horses cutting back from routes or moving turf to dirt haven’t had much success in this race, so emphasize the dirt sprint form of Wicked Halo, Fire on Time and Yuugiri, all coming out of the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, the TCA has only been won twice by horses more than 2-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, so tilt toward speed. Fire On Time might be quickest of the group again and has a chance to wire the field. Wicked Halo won the Raven Run Stakes here last Fall at 7F, while Yuugiri struggled locally in the Madison here in April. Fire O Time beat lesser foes in her only try here in Spring ’22. Six of the last 7 TCA winners were 9-2 or less odds.

8th Race
The late pick four begins and we hit the middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three in the First Lady Stakes. Seven straight favorites have been beaten in this race and in our 17-year database, only 3 chalks have been successful. But note 15 of 17 winners were 9-2 or less, which makes this a great betting race. Trainer Chad Brown has won the last 5 editions and has them surrounded with defending champ In Italian, her Diana conqueror Whitebeam and the Beverly D runner-up Gina Romantica, winner of last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over this course. Saratoga preppers have won this race the last 5 years and 8 of the last 9, so tab Whitebeam and In Italian’s rematch as the race within the race. Jockey Joel Rosario has won the First Lady 3 of the last 4 years and returns aboard In Italian. Whitebeam has never run at Keeneland on grass, but her sire Caravaggio has fabulous numbers here with 3 winners from only 6 starters.

9th Race
Next up is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, which has been run 9 times since the return to dirt in Fall 2014. Only 1 of 9 winners led after the first half-mile and we’ve seen the average winner rally from 3-1/2 lengths off the lead at that juncture, quite a closer’s profile. Horses prepped at 7 furlongs or longer account for 7 of the 9 wins, while Saratoga and Churchill have split dominance with 4 wins each as final prep locales. Awesome Road will vie for favoritism, but ran just 6 furlongs in his impressive debut win. Perhaps he’ll be vulnerable to more experienced closers. Generous Tipper intrigues off the pace for a Kenny McPeek barn that won this race 2 years ago with Rattle N Roll. Todd Pletcher looks for back-to-back wins here after Forte’s ’22 score when he sends out sharp Saratoga mile winner Locked. Pletcher also won this in 2014 with Carpe Diem.

10th Race
The featured $1 million Keeneland Turf Mile wraps the all-stakes pick 4, pick 5 and Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Favorites have lost this race the last 8 years and 9 of the last 10. The last 7 winners were 6-1 or more and we’ve averaged 12-1 in this race the past 7 years. Speed has struggled with just two half-mile leaders holding on in the 17-year database (average winner 3 lengths back at that point). Note 12 of 17 winners cut back in distance some from their most recent start. The profile would be to find a nice-priced closer who ran longer than a mile last out. Set Piece, the Arlington Million winner, should fit that bill. Expect the public to go all in on Master of the Seas, defending Turf Mile winner Annapolis and his Pletcher stablemate Up to the Mark. The latter is trying to come off a June layoff, but note the last 13 winners of this stakes had raced in August or September prior.

11th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the finale, a split division of Race 2. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44%. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue. This race is almost exclusively first-timers. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior, such as Miyagi for Wayne Catalano. He’s by Not This Time, a strong local dirt sire to boot, as is fellow rookie Who’s the King. First-timer Nash is a Godolphin blueblood for Brad Cox you have to consider, by Medgalia d’Oro out of the sharp win-early and sprint mare Sara Louise.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:50 AM

Caton Bredar Keeneland

Saturday, day 2 of the Keeneland Fall Meet

1st Race
Not an abundance of early speed in this conditioned claiming race, so 1-Master of Arms should be in the garden spot with his natural speed and inside post. Look for him to gain position early under Prat and control things from there. 6-Ala Carte drops in to the claiming ranks for the first time and, with class relief should improve. 5-Debate needs some help up front as he does his best running late, but he's another getting class relief whose best definitely marks him a top contender.

2nd Race
Giving the edge to experience in this wide open maiden juvenile event, with 1-Linzer coming off a pair of solid runner-up finishes. Blinkers come off for his third try--a key angle for trainer Stidham who has a win rate of 46% removing blinkers. 6-Gallant Mischief sports a fast, impressive work tab for his debut. Son of Into Mischief is bred to be any kind and the trainer--jockey combo of Gaffalione and Casse has been solid, especially at Keeneland over the past couple years. 7-Honky Tonk Highway was second in his lone start at Ellis and is likely to build on the effort.

3rd Race
In yet another ultra deep maiden race, most of the runners have raced previously. Of that group, 4-Take Time to Dream seems to be getting better with each start and her style suggests the longer the better. 1-Crushed Ice makes a lot of sense off a third place finish at Monmouth Park after debuting in the mud at Saratoga. Works have been swift as well. Right next door, 2-Devil Blue Dress makes her first start with some very sharp morning works and a strong rider in Luis Saez.

4th Race
5-Saffron Moon may be a short price, but she appears worth it. The Chad Brown filly is reunited with Flavian Pra, who rode her to a narrow defeat at Saratoga in August, her first start since two straight turf wins. 6-Quality Star is a horse for course with two wins from three Keeneland tries. 11-Watch This Birdie should be long odds as she moves up in class off a winning effort. Still, she's interesting here as she seems to have found new life on the grass.

5th Race
With speed to the inside courtesy of 1-Normandy Hero and 2-Baxley, 3-Alder should get the ideal set up in this talented field of juvenile sprinters, The son of Hard Spun won easily in his only try on a fast track, and trainer Cox wins 30% of the time with horses coming off wins. Bailey is talented and, if left alone on the lead could be very tough to catch although it's more likely he'll face at least a little pressure early. 7-Stormquist is one of the few offered for the $100k optional claiming price, but claimed off a winning effort for $50k by a shrewd claiming trainer, the colt seems well spotted and worth the risk. 9-Haul is hard to get a line on as he exits slower races but had trouble in graded stakes and may deserve the benefit of the doubt although at short odds, he's hard to take on top.

6th Race
The grade 2 Woodford, first of the graded stakes on tap, features some gritty turf sprinters, several of whom have an affinity for the course. The unknown quantity is British invader 2-Live In The Dream, who travels to the US off a solid win in grade I company at York. A bit of a surprise that day at 28-1, the gelding knows how to win with a 6 for 19 record lifetime, 3 for 6 this year. European horses generally seem better, overall, than our domestic runners, so the Irish bred gets the nod here over the very honest, hard trying 1-Bad Beat Brian and horse for course Kaufymaker who is seeing her third straight win while moving back up into graded stakes company.

7th Race
Female sprinters take center stage in the grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America with Yuugiri getting a perfect post in the middle of the field. While the filly may well be the speed of the speed, she showed a different dimension last out after slightly missing the break and rallying from off the pace. Now 5 for 6 at the 6 furlong distance, Yuugiri is already a graded stakes winner around 2 turns (gr.3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn last year) and looms the one to beat under Flavian Prat. Just to her inside, 5-Happy Soul adds blinkers, a 25% move for trainer Wesley Ward. The filly has been coming close without winning at various tracks and levels of competition. Maybe the blinkers can put her over the line. While less experienced than most, 4-Static Fire rounds out the top contenders moving up off a win at Kentucky Downs. The filly ran well at Keeneland last fall on the dirt and appears to be developing into a very nice runner.

8th Race
When you focus on turf fillies, you start with trainer Chad Brown, and the grade 1 First Lady is no exception. Brown appears to have everyone over a barrel with three very nice runners out of 8 in the field, any one of which seems able to get the money. 3-In Italian is likely to be favored but deservedly so, with back to back grade I wins earlier in the year (including the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland). The 5-year-old mare doesn't seem to be slowing down with age; in fact, she's the speed of the speed and with the possible exception of one other horse, is likely to be alone on the engine. Very tough to get past In Italian, but her stablemate 2-Whitebeam has the look of a horse getting good at the right time. The Juddmonte homebred won her last two including the grade I Diana at Saratoga. She shortens back up to the mile distance and is primed to be right there with her stablemate at the wire. While 1-Gina Romantica rounds out the Brown trio, 4-Jumbly has to be considered for Joseph O'Brien. The filly traveled from Britain over the summer to just miss in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga. A trip back across the pond didn't amount to much lsat month, but her best definitely is good enough to be competitive here and she's likely to be good odds despite the success rate of other Euro invaders,

9th Race
The grade I Breeders' Futurity features gets added attention as not only a prep for the Breeders Cup Juvenile it's also an early preview for the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. In a very tough and seemingly talented group, 3-Awesome Road impressed in is lone start at Ellis Park for Brad Cox, An expensive Keeneland yearling purchase, the colt is impeccably bred with reason to believe he will be better at longer distances. Top pick here, although there are a lot of other interesting choices, like 9-Locked, who broke his maiden going a mile at Saratoga and did it drawing away despite pressure in the early stages, or 1-The Wine Steward, who is undefeated in three starts and has already proven able to win from the inside post.

10th Race
Another stepping stone to the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile, 1-Master of the Seas looks to build on an easy victory as favorite in the Grade I Woodbine Mile. While this is a slightly tougher group than he last faced, the 5-year-old has 7 wins from 14 starts lifetime and has come to life of late with two straight wins in international stakes company. He should sit a stalking trip behind 3-Stitched and 7-Atone among others. Similarly, 9-annapolis should also sit mid pack or better and benefits with the return to Keeneland, a course he won over one year ago in this very race. Late runners like 5-Up to the Mark and 4-Set Piece may be slightly up against it with not the fastest pace to close into and only a mile to work with but each has shown ability to overcome obstacles and are coming in off grade I wins in very good form.

11th Race
Once again the day closes with an inscrutable 2-year-old maiden race with very little past performance info to work off of. On the plus side, while difficult to handicap, these races often offer good prices if you're fortunate enough to come up with the runners. 5-Miyagi is intriguing for Wayne Catalano, a trainer who definitely excels with young horses. The gelding is by Not This Time, whose offspring win 20% of the time when making their first starts. Fast works and the presence of Tyler Gaffalione make this one a top play. Cleverly named 3-Hammerstein (by the sire Oscar Performance) debuts for Brian Lynch with a series of fast works, several of which were out of the gate. Colt should be primed to break running. 1-Nash draws a tricky inside post but is a half brother to several very useful runners including Spa City as well as Sara Street, both of whom won early in their careers. If 14-Agoo draws in pay attention. The son of Munnings almost got the money in his debut last month at Churchill and there's reason to believe he can duplicate (or better) the effort.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:52 AM

Ed DeRosa Keeneland

Things sure looked good after three races on Friday. Unfortunately, that's where things stalled. I.e., we enter day two on a 7-race losing streak, but the optimist in me is also quick to point that our two winners on opening day were good enough for a +6.4% ROI on the meeting. 10-2-3-2, $2.12.
Regardless of what happened Friday, though, we'd be licking our chops for Saturday's 11-race slate featuring a pair of Grade 1 races among an all-graded-stakes Pick 5. These races will have plenty to say about their corresponding Breeders' Cup divisions come Nov. 3-4 at Santa Anita Park.

1st Race
Before we get to the stakes action, there is plenty of good racing to kick things off. The lid lifter on today's 11-race card features a (morning line) favorite who I see as vulnerable in #6 A La Carte. I like #s 1 & 5 here with a slight preference to #5 Debate. #1 Master of Arms might have a tactical advantage but Debate is cutting back in distance while dropping in class second-off the layoff for a trainer (Tommy Drury) who excels with these types of moves.

PICKS: 5-1-6

2nd Race
One way you can tell the racing at Keeneland is so competitive is because the also eligible horses almost always figure. And so it goes here in race 2 with #13 Bergen, a $375,000 two-year-old in training purpose debuting for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat. More important than the gaudy price tag, though, is a dam who has thrown 3 two-year-old winners from as many starters. #1 Linzer is easily the best of those who have run and maybe just blitzes this group on front end from the rail.

PICKS: 13-1-6

3rd Race
I'm not sure what to make of the trainer change on #5 Icicles, but at 6-to-1 (morning line) I guess I'm willing to find out if it matters. This filly on well on debut before going on the shelf after disappointing at 1-to-2 second-time out. A return to the debut form is likely needed to compete here, but again, the price will be right knowing she has already flashed the necessary talent. #7 Insensitive has been training at Prairie Meadows, but I'm more concerned about a short price than where she prepared.

PICKS: 5-7-4

4th Race
What was that I said about competitive fields and also eligibles? #14 Morgs World is dangerous here if drawn in. She's never gone this far, but her two-turn races indicate she can handle this assignment. #10 Beechunut Trophy is a gaudy price considering she can attend the early pace and go on with it. Outside post not ideal, but 12-to-1 would be. #1 Willakia is probably the most likely winner here, but willing to take bigger prices on top and gamble a little bit.

PICKS: 14-10-1-5

5th Race
Not too often you see a two-year-old allowance race, but that's what we have here as a lot of last-out maiden winners try each other away from the world of black type in this six-furlong throwdown. #2 Baxley will be hounding the rail and just prefer these connections to others in the race. I understand the favortism on #3 Alder, but he is no faster than our top pick and will probably be a shorter price given connections.

PICKS: 2-3-4

6th Race
The stakes action begins here, as does an all-graded stakes Pick 5 and a $3 all-graded turf stakes Pick 3. I'm not sure if we'll get the morning line price on either of our top selections, but with a 12-horse field and plenty of options, I expect the value to be there regardless. #9 Kaufymaker returns to stakes company after a nearly two-year hiatus and with it brings a new front-end dimension to her game. #4 Arzak is also returning to stakes company, and her Ragozin Sheets figures are too good to ignore at 15-to-1 (morning line).

PICKS: 9-5-8-1-11

7th Race
This sprint for fillies and mares features a rematch of the top three from the Open Mind Stakes 3 weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Well, that really wasn't much of a match as #1 Wicked Halo failed to show up at 2-to-5. That is concerning, of course, but I'm choosing to give a mulligan and Tyler Gaffalione staying loyal adds to the confidence.

PICKS: 1-6

8th Race
The Grade 1 action begins here with the first of three races at the highest level. This also is the middle leg of the $3 all-graded stakes turf Pick 3.
Trainer Chad Brown has three of the eight entrants here, and assuming #3 In Italian is again the shortest price of his starters, then #2 Whitebeam makes the most sense to me. This race seems like it could go very similarly to the Diana when Whitebeam ran down her uncoupled stablemate at a bigger price. She won't be as big a price here but she's still the play.

PICKS: 2-3

9th Race
The Breeders' Futurity Stakes includes my most likely winner on the day, as I see #9 Locked as, well... a lock. OK, not really a lock but who can resist that pun. More to wit, I can't resist horse who was just clearly fastest than the rest of his foes. Lastly, he sports a triple digit late pace rating from Brisnet, a magical threshold for me that I have noticed produces a good performance next out. All he needs to do to win this is replicate his maiden win. If he improves off it?!! Watch out.

PICKS: 9-1-3

10th Race
What's that they say about missed weddings and attended funerals? I'm hoping to avoid that double in the Turf Mile Stakes after completely dismissing Master of The Seas chances in the Woodbine Mile only to watch him destroy that field and my bankroll. He will very likely be a longer price here, though, so it's not a total wedding-funeral scenario. Think of it as me catching the bris/baptism.
This concludes a pair of key Pick N races, and I am willing to single this horse. #3 Stiched is an interesting front-end threat but the morning line does not excite me. #5 Up to the Mark might prove he's better than these, but at the expected price off the layoff, I'll let him beat me.

PICKS: 1-3-5As for the $3 turf pick 3, we took a big swing on opening day and missed. Badly. After scratches our $120 bet returned $0. I can't make a case to putting that much into this sequence. I'm 1, 5, 8, 9, 11 with 2, 3 with 1 for $30.

11th Race
The nightcap is a salty maiden race for two-year-old males. One has to think there are some future stars here and hopefully for us a couple under-the-radar speedballs. #12 Corso's Pick was bred in Florida, so that he is in Doug O'Neilll's barn and shows up here I think speaks to some expected talent on a national stage. #5 Miyagi is by a 20% debut sire (Not This Time) and will have Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle for trainer Wayne Catalano. I'm glad the all-stakes Pick 5 ends in race 10 because it would suck to navigate a sequence only to watch some horse you didn't have run off the screen here. A fun one to watch, and I'll back either of the aforementioned horses at big prices in the win pool.

PICKS: 12-5-1

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:53 AM

Tom Leach Keeneland

I don't see many big prices on top in these stakes races today so you might look for the overlays in the second and third slots but what a fantastic day of racing that usually produces a Breeders' Cup winner or two--or three...

1st Race
The WIlkes barn came in firing last spring and they could get off to a good start in this race with 4-Captain J ack. He ran well here in the spring and the third start off a layoff could produce his best run yet. 2-Gunner Bay shows a race two starts back with a speed figure that would be competitive in this spot and with good speed and a class drop, here's a price play. 3-Penny's Prospect has been consistent and this trainer usually has them ready for a Keeneland meet.

2nd Race
5-Vesture was heavily bet in his debut but got a wide trip with a hot pace. He moves to dirt but the pedigree suggests that should not present a problem. 1-Linzer has good speed and the horse that beat him first time out came back to win a stake at Saratoga 6-Gallant Mischief is a first-timer but is working bullets for the Mark Casse barn.

3rd Race
6-Three Polks beat over half the field in her debut race on turf and the barn has solid numbers on the grass-to-dirt move. The local works are strong and this one had some trouble in that last race. 3-Raggity Sand bombed in the turf debut but she could be dangerous back on the main track and cutting back in distance. That race on March 23 suggests there's some quality here. 7-Insensitive has showed steady improvement in her most recent races and looking at her odds in each start and the face that she's 7-2 here suggests she's finally in the right spot.

4th Race
1-Willakia has run two good races off the layoff and Gafflione taking the mount on this one for the Motion barn catches the eye. 13-I'm So Sorry was dazzling last time out and this fairly recent newcomer to the Maker barn may have taken her game to a much higher level. 5-Saffron Moon was sensational in her only try on this turf course back in April. 6-Quality Star makes the second start off a break and she's won twice on this track.

5th Race
3-Alder romped in her second start and it's easy to see him winning right back for the Cox barn. 4-Valentine Candy posted a good Beyer figure in her debut win and then got burned out chasing a suicidal pace last time. 2-Baxley won his debut with ease in fast time for a barn that picks its spots well.

6th Race
The stakes lineup begins with the grade 2 Woodford presented by Fanduel and to me, it's a race that lacks a standout. This might be the best chance to catch a price in the stakes sequence so let's try 9-Kaufymaker. At age four, he may finally be taking his game to a new level, which is what that last race at Saratoga appeared to be. 8-Our Shot beat the top pick here in the spring. 2-Live In The Dream just won a group 1 in Europe and has three wins this year. 5-Arzak is well-drawn, comes off a 95 Beyer figure and gets Rosario, who excels in riding turf sprints. 11-Beer Can Man has the quality to win this but that's a tough post to overcome.

7th Race
In the grade 2 TCA Stakes, we'll forgive that last race for 1-Wicked Halo and focus on the previous four efforts this year--any of those makes her a major threat in this spot. 4-Static Fire comes off a lifetime best Beyer figure in her first start of the year and if she improves, she'll be tough. 2-Yuugiri has won two of her last three but did not run well here in the spring, albeit against a grade 1 field. 5-Happy Soul has run well here. Reminder that this race begins an all-stakes pick 4. Here's my play for that one: 1,4,5,6 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,9 with 1,4,5

8th Race
A trio of three grade 1's begins with the First Lady presented by UK Healthcare and it's hard to see Chad Brown not winning this race with either 2-Whitebeam or 3-In Italian. I'll lean to the former only because she's younger and may still be improving but it's a tossup. If you want to look deeper, 5-Gam's Mission is a top quality mare with an affinity for this course but she's never beaten horses the caliber of the top two choices. 1-Gina Romantica is worth a look given that she's 10-1 and she's won a grade 1 here.

9th Race
3-Awesome Road gets the nod for me in the grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity off that strong debut win at Ellis. The runnerup was 10 lengths ahead of the third-place runner and came back to win easily last Sunday. 9-Locked showed tremendous improvement in his second start and it's a Pletcher runner so it's easy to see this one winning. 2-Timberlake looked great two starts back but then came up short last time after chasing that super-fast pace at Saratoga. He could bounce back and his experience edge is noteworthy. 1-The Wine Steward is also more battle-tested than the top two choices and he's shown steady improvement through each of his three starts.

10th Race
I think there are two horses in the grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile that stand just slightly above the rest and that's 1-Master of the Seas and 5-Up to the Mark. I give the edge to the former, a Euro invader who was very impressive in a win last time out at Woodbine. And his previous win produced a speed figure that would translate to around a 110 Beyer number. As for Up to the Mark, he got really good last spring and if he comes back at that level, he's good enough to take down the highly-regarded foreign entrant. After that, 4-Set Piece is worth a look. This is a horses that has hinted a big-time potential and he put it altogether last time out. Improvement on that effort could give him a shot at the upset. 2-Indestructible kept top class company in Europe.

11th Race
A good-looking group of maidens to close out a fantastic card and I'll lean to 7-Booth off that strong pattern of works for the Asmussen barn. This one brought $225,000 at a two-year old sale earlier this year so he must have been impressive in workouts. 4-Rapoport comes from the Pletcher barn and like most of these, is a first-time starter. 1-Nash is the slight favorite but I wonder if the rail draw might comprimise his chances for the Cox barn. You can watch the odds when this race comes up but if you're playing multi-race wagers, you probably just have to take all three of them.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:53 AM

Ellis Starr Keeneland

Saturday October 7, 2023
Race 10 at Keeneland
Post Time 5:45 p.m. eastern time
Coolmore Turf Mile
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#1 Master of the Seas – minimum win betting odds 3 to 2
#9 Annapolis – minimum win betting odds – 2 to 1
#4 Set Piece – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 1
Master of the Seas is a true “miler” in that he has more wins at the distance in his career than at any other distance he has run, and he has more wins at the distance than any other horse in this year’s Coolmore Turf Mile field. Four of his seven career victories have come at this one mile turf trip, and he has won four times from eight tries at the distance. Most importantly, two of those wins came in group 2 stakes races in England and in Dubai, and his most recent win came in the Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile. In that race, Master of the Seas showed a strong kick, running the last quarter mile in 22.5 seconds while drawing off with ease by almost four lengths and not being fully asked by his jockey. The 112 Equibase Speed Figure wasn’t his best, but he could have run faster, as evidenced by a 123 figure earned in the spring of 2021 in the English 2000 Guineas Stakes when beaten by a nose on the wire and by the 119 figure earned in July when easily winning the Summer Mile Stakes. Jockey James Doyle was in the saddle for that win and returns to ride in the Coolmore Turf Mile. Last but not least, trainer Charles Appleby continues on a tremendous string of successes in North America at the highest level. A Race Lens query reveals in the last five years in grade 1 stakes, Appleby’s runners have won 16 of 38 races, with eight more having finished second, winning with 13 different horses. One of those was Modern Games, who won the Ricoh Woodbine Mile in 2022, before returning to Europe for a second place finish, then coming back to the states to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The fact Appleby has decided to let Master of the Seas run his prep for the Mile in this race is another strong factor in favor of his charge winning.
In 2022, Annapolis won the Saranac Stakes at Saratoga in September, before shipping to Kentucky and winning the Coolmore Turf Mile, earning a career best 114 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. He ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup Mile the following month, took six months off and won his 2023 comeback race by a head. What followed were two very good efforts when second in the Kelso Stakes and Fourstardave Handicap, both with 110 figures. In both races Annapolis was sent to post as the favorite but was beaten by Casa Creed, who notably is not running in this race. In his most recent start, Annapolis might have won run much better than fourth but had his momentum stopped badly at a critical stage of the stretch run when he was squeezed between rivals. We can ignore that race and look to his two previous efforts, and last year’s effort in this race, to come to the conclusion Annapolis can be a strong contender in this race.
Set Piece, like Annapolis, has three career wins at this mile trip. He is also a grade 1 winner like Annapolis and like Master of the Seas, having won the Arlington Million Stakes in August at the distance of one mile and one-quarter. In that race Set Piece earned a strong 113 figure, just slight less than his career best 115 figure earned last year when winning the Baltimore-Washington Turf Cup Stakes. With 13 wins in 29 races and $1.75 million in earnings, Set Piece has proven to be a very tough competitor. The only possibly question mark I see is in two races at Keeneland, he has not run up to expectations, finishing seventh in the 2022 Maker’s Mark Mile and finishing fourth behind Annapolis in this race last year.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:54 AM

Kim Nelson Keeneland

Another great day of racing at Keeneland in the Fall with 5 Graded Stakes events on the card.

1st Race
#6 A La Carte is dropping in for a tag for the first time in his 6 race career. The softer company should put this guy in the winner's circle. #5 Debate is another finding softer company here. His Beyer numbers are strong for this field and should be competitive. #4 Captain Jack is making his 5th career start and fits well with these. Top Picks #6, #5 and #4

2nd Race
#6 Gallant Mischief is a firster for the Mark Casse barn and brings an impressive work tab. $480K weanling purchase this colt looks ready to shine at first asking. #2 Surf City is another first time starter. The Mendelsohn colt has a recent bullet work from the gates over the local going. He may prove tough to catch. #1 Linzer has the experience edge with 2 starts under his belt. He takes off the blinkers for this start and recent form suggest he is a threat. Top Picks #6, #2 and #1

3rd Race
#4 Take Time to Dream has a couple of starts coming in to this Maiden event. She improved significantly in her last and like that Velazquez returns to the saddle. #2 Devil Blue Dress is a firster with sharp works. Well bred filly deserves a look. #6 Three Polks tried the grass for her first outing and ran a respectable 5th in a field of 12. She boast the top Beyer figure of this bunch. Top Picks #4, #2 and #6

4th Race
#5 Saffron Moon is making her 2nd start of this form cycle. She turned in an even effort last out and expect her to pick up the pace this time around. She broke her maiden over the Keeneland grass and look for her to finish strong here. #1 Willakia was the beaten favorite last out but finished a good 2nd going the 1 1/8 miles. Back to her preferred distance here she should be tough. #2 Lady Arsinoe is 2nd off a brief freshening and she too is shortening off her last. Like her for part. Top Picks #5, #1 and #2

5th Race
#4 Valentine Candy broke his maiden at first asking but didn't fire in the Grade 1 Hopeful. Back with softer here expect him to break sharp and not look back. #3 Alder dominated a field of Maiden Special Weights in his last start. This colt is definitely one to watch. #9 Haul will have to step up his game to compete with our top 2 picks but his 2 past performances suggest he is an improving sort. Top Picks #4, #3 and #9

6th Race
The Grade 2 Woodford is the start of the Pick 5 and the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. #6 Olympic Runner is a consistent sort picking up checks with the toughest of company. He managed a 4th place finish last out beaten less than a length after a slow break. This will be his 3rd off the vacation and expect him to show up sharp. #1 Bad Beat Brian is another consistent runner that deserves respect in this tough Grade 2 event. He has the speed to take advantage of his inside post. #11 Beer Can Man has won 6 of his 10 starts at this distance. He looks to be in good form coming in to this one and expect a big effort. Top Picks #6, #1 and #11

7th Race
The Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America is the start of the All Stakes Pick 4 and the first leg of the Keeneland/Santa Anita BC Pick 6. #1 Wicked Halo is the one to beat here with her stunning past performances. The millionaire filly failed to fire last time out but can overlook that one and expect connections to have her sharp for this one. #6 Yuugiri defeated Wicked Halo last time out and turned in an impressive performance to win by 3. She is 5 of 6 at this distance. #4 Static Fire is making her 2nd off the layoff and exits a nice win at KY Downs. Top Picks #1, #6 and #4

8th Race
The Grade 1 First Lady is the start of the Late Pick 4. #3 In Italian is fresh for this one and she loves the Keeneland lawn. She won this race last year and she won the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley here in the spring. She excels at this distance. #2 Whitebeam defeated In Italian by a nose when that last met and this multiple Graded Stakes winner poses a threat here. #1 Gina Romantica seldom misses a check and this being her 3rd off the long vacation and shortening up to the mile distance could make her dangerous. Looks like a Chad Brown trifecta. Top Picks #3, #2 and #1

9th Race
The Claiborne Breeders' Futurity draws a field of nine really nice 2 year olds. #1 The Wine Steward is undefeated in 3 starts and could pull the upset here. He hasn't been 2 turns yet but pedigree suggests he is more than capable. #9 Locked broke his maiden at 2nd asking in impressive fashion posting a big 96 Beyer Speed figure. Top connections will have him ready to fire. #6 Generous Tipper was another that broke his maiden last out blowing away a field of 10 at Ellis Park. Don't leave out Kenny McPeek in this type of races at Keeneland. Top Picks #1, #9 and #6

10th Race
The Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile draws a group of very talented grass horses. #5 Up to the Mark is a multiple Grade 1 winner on the grass and he comes in fresh for this one. His closing kick is tough to catch and like him to take home the trophy here. #1 Master of the Seas made an impressive debut on this side of the pond winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile by over 4 lengths. This tough gelding is a distance specialist and expect him to be coming fast in the stretch. #3 Stitched finished a strong 2nd in his last a Grade 3 event at Kentucky Downs. His early speed could hold on for part to boost exotics. Top Picks #5, #1 and #3

11th Race
#5 Miyagi is a firster for the Catalano barn. Works are sharp and Tyler Gaffalione is in the irons. #1 Nash is another firster. This well bred colt comes over with the Cox barn. Barn wins with 26% of the their first time starters. #4 Rapoport is also a well bred firster with top connections. Top Picks #5, #1 and #4

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:55 AM

Acacia Clement Belmont at the Big A Race 1
1-8-3-7

Race 2
5-7-1-3

Race 3
TURF 5-3-2-6

Race 4
TURF 2-6-4-7

Race 5
6-5-2-1

Race 6
TURF 3-12-9-7

Race 7
7-2-1-8

Race 8
7-3-6-4

Race 9
TURF 3-2-1-7

Race 10
10-5-1A-7

Race 11
TURF 8-9-2-5

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:56 AM

Andy Serling Belmont at the Big A

Race 1
3 - 1 - 6 - 8

Race 2
4 - 1 - 8 - 5

Race 3
TURF 5 - 2 - 3 - 6 DIRT 8 - 7

Race 4
2 - 6 - 7 - 4

Race 5
6 - 5 - 2 - 4

Race 6
TURF 3 - 9 - 7 - 11 DIRT 10 - 7 - 6 - 9

Race 7
7 - 2 - 1 - 8

Race 8
7 - 6 - 4 - 3

Race 9
2 - 3 - 1 - 7

Race 10
5 - 10 - 1/1A - 6

Race 11
TURF 2 - 5 - 1 - 8 DIRT 14 - 12 - 13 - 8

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:57 AM

Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 7 Belmont at The Big Aby David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS (http://timeformusblog.com/category/race-previews/) to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 8 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 6: 12 - 11 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 8: 7 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 10: 5 - 1A - 10 - 4
Race 11: 9 - 2 - 4 - 5 (Dirt: 14 - 12 - 13 - 6)
FAIR VALUE PLAYS(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 6
The expected scratch of Big Invasion (#1) really opens up this Belmont Turf Sprint. It’s hard to know where the public might land in a race that looks highly competitive. Thin White Duke (#9) was the winner of the Harvey Pack at Saratoga, in which Big Invasion was second. He won that race fairly, overcoming a slow pace to do so. However, it should be noted that outside paths seemed to be an advantage on the Mellon turf course at that time, and he might have taken advantage of the course’s flow. There is speed in here to set up his late run, but I do wonder what’s left in the tank after he ran four times during the Saratoga meet. Dancing Buck (#11) is a little more appealing coming out of that same race. He was perhaps against the flow, as he was setting a pace that came apart. It was also his first start back off an extended layoff. He is the defending champion in this race, having won last year over a yielding course, and he could catch some give in the ground against this time. In addition to Think White Duke, David Donk also sends out Yes and Yes (#4). I’ve long been a fan of this horse, and he has had his fair share of trips. That includes last time when he was unwisely rated behind a pace that held together. However, even at his best a victory may be just out of reach. I’ll still use him in exotics at what should be a generous price. Today’s Flavor (#7) won a high-level allowance race just two weeks ago, handling turf in his debut on that surface. He also showed a new dimension, rallying past horses despite having previously been a need-the-lead type on dirt. He’s a contender, but I’m most interested in the horse who finished directly behind him. Nothing Better (#12) didn’t draw a great post position for this race, but his gate speed could get him out of a bad situation, as he typically has no trouble getting to the front in his races. That was the case last time when he quickly established the lead and nearly led all the way before getting run down by Today’s Flavor. He still battled back gamely to nearly reclaim the lead at the wire, and I love that about this horse. He never goes down without a fight, and he can be especially hard to pass when allowed to get brave up front. I don’t know if he’ll necessarily make the lead here, but I do want forward horses over a course that should be less than firm. He had a legitimate excuse two back, and was in against a tougher field in the Jaipur. His form has otherwise been strong, and he figures to be a fair price.
Fair Value:
#12 NOTHING BETTER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7
This N1X allowance field has attracted a competitive field of runners, a few of which have already won multiple races, having risen out of starter allowance or NY-bred company. Likely favorite I’mhavingamoment (#2) falls into the latter category, having worked her way through her state-bred allowance conditions in her last couple of starts. She upset a field to win two back at Belmont in impressive fashion, and proved that was no fluke last time, delivering as the heavy favorite at Saratoga. Her triple-digit TimeformUS Figures for those efforts do make her the horse to beat, but she’s going to take money again off that exposed form. White Chocolate (#4) comes out of a maiden win, and did earn a fast speed figure for her victory on Aug. 25. Yet she took advantage of a sloppy track that was very kind to speed. Trainer Chad Summers is just 3 for 43 (7%, $0.85 ROI) with last-out winners over 5 years, so I want to look elsewhere. Obrigada (#8) is dangerous for Linda Rice as a 4-time winner who has only lost once on the dirt. She’s been beating weaker fields in her recent starts, but I did think she ran quite well last time, overcoming a tardy start to get into position and win decisively. I’m just concerned she won’t be much of a price with Irad Ortiz aboard. My top pick is Royal Poppy (#4). This 3-year-old hasn’t run quite as fast as a few others in here, but I think her early speed could make her quite dangerous. She’s drawn well outside of main pace rival White Chocolate, which puts her in a different situation than last time. In that September return at Monmouth, she drew the rail and was forced to gun to the lead, setting a very fast opening fraction. She paid the price late while perhaps not racing on the best part of the track. She had shown ability here last winter, and I think she might be ready for a step forward second off the layoff. A wet track would help her cause, as she’s run some of her best races over sealed going.
Fair Value:
#4 ROYAL POPPY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8
There appears to be a deep well of raw talent in this Champagne, but it remains to be seen which of these promising 2-year-old will be ready to take that next step forward against stakes company. Fierceness (#6) has to be considered the horse to beat off his dazzling debut win at Saratoga. The victorious result was hardly a surprise, as this horse had garnered plenty of buzz based on his morning workouts leading into that race. Yet it was the commanding nature of his performance that makes him so formidable here. He displayed excellent gate speed and just opened up on that field with ease once asked for run by Irad Ortiz. He also has already proven that he handles a wet track, and there is rain in the forecast for Saturday. I’m not totally convinced that more distance will suit this horse, but we already know he has the ability to win a race of this stature. That said, General Partner (#4) didn’t run that much slower than the favorite in breaking his maiden at Saratoga late in the meet. This colt had run very well on debut, chasing a fast pace against a strong field, and he seemed to benefit from that experience in his second start. He got to the front and never looked back en route to a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure performance. He’s another who may not necessarily want route distances in the future, but he obviously has serious talent. I’m interested in horses coming out of the Grade 1 Hopeful. That stakes event didn’t earn as fast a speed figure as some others in here earned against maiden company. Yet I do think it was a better race than the figures indicate, as that field had shown talent on the way in. Timberlake (#3) was the beaten favorite, and might have run the best race of anyone. He didn’t break that sharply, got rank in the early stages while chasing a fast pace, and split horses nicely in the stretch before getting overhauled by the closing winner. Now Brad Cox takes the blinkers off, which might help him to settle better. He’s bred to appreciate this distance. My top pick is Gold Sweep (#7), who finished a little further back in the Hopeful. Yet he really never had a fair chance that day given his trip. He broke better than Timberlake, but was reined in to drop back out of the chute. He then found himself towards the inside taking kickback, getting awkwardly shuffled back around the far turn. He appeared to have some run in upper stretch, but found more traffic and got steadied late. This horse also had a valid excuse two back in the Sanford when he stumbled badly at the start before closing for second. He had shown talent in the Tremont, and I’m hopeful he can finally get back to that effort with a clean trip.
Fair Value:
#7 GOLD SWEEP, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10
I’m mildly against Frat Pack (#10) in this allowance event. He’s run well in both starts at this level, but he’s also gotten pretty good trips without winning. I can’t fault him for losing to the talented Everso Mischievous two back, but I was hoping to see him finish off that race a bit stronger considering that he was setting a slow pace. Then last time he had the entire stretch to go by the leaders and just seemed to hang against a field he was supposed to beat. He's logical, but now he’s going to be a pretty short price facing a group that still has something to prove at this level. Among the new faces lining up against him, I’m most intrigued by Full Moon Madness (#1A), who returns from a layoff. I just don’t like that he’s part of an entry, which will drive down his price. So I can’t pick him on top in this spot, but I won’t be surprised if he runs well. He handled a wet track very well to break his maiden about a year ago and showed promise before going off form. Michelle Nevin doesn’t have the best stats off layoffs, but this horse appears to be working well. My top pick is Maker’s Candy (#5). I like the turnback in distance for a horse who probably didn’t want to go 9 furlongs in the Albany. He hinted that two turns might not be for him when he lost the New York Derby at a short price, and he obviously got very tired in the late stages at Saratoga last time. I like him going 7 furlongs here, and his tactical speed should ensure that he works out a good trip in a race that features a murky pace scenario despite the large field. We saw another pace player from the Albany, Mariachi, return to win on a turnback out of that race, and I’m hoping Maker’s Candy can pull off a similar feat. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s back on Lasix for the first time since his impressive maiden victory.
Fair Value:
#5 MAKER'S CANDY, at 7-2 or greater

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:58 AM

Jeff Siegel Santa Anita Picks

“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Report
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Report has trained like an outstanding prospect in recent weeks and finally makes it to the post in this extended sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. The Richard Mandella-trained daughter of Empire Maker has outworked everything that she’s been matched up with and has done so in easy fashion while always finishing with plenty left. It’s always problematic to back a first timer breaking from the rail in a sprint but is this case we’ll bend the rules. Let’s make her an enthusiastic win play and rolling exotic single and hope for a trouble free trip.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Duty First; 2-Sanger; 4-Castleknock.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Here’s a tough and competitive starter optional claiming turf sprint that offers several possibilities. Duty First is a rapidly improving son of Smiling Tiger fresh from a highly rated maiden $50,000 state-bred score at Los Alamitos two weeks ago and could be dangerous right back with another forward move. How he’ll handle the switch to grass is anybody’s guess, but with Elusive Quality on the dam’s side there’s a decent expectation that he’ll have no issue with the lawn. There is little doubt based on bloodlines that Sanger will move up on the sod. The son of Desert Code (from an Unusual Heat mare) nosed out Duty First in a maiden $50,000 dirt track sprint at Del Mar last time out with a much improved speed figure, and with another forward move today could easily score right back, especially with the switch to top rider Juan Hernandez. Castleknock seems to have found his niche as a late-running turf sprinter, and with some help up almost certainly will be heard from late.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Gate to Paradise
Backups/savers/Underneath: 8-Laurent.

Forecast: Gate to Paradise was a non-threatening third in the Del Mar Debutante-G1 behind the best juvenile filly in North America (Tamara) but won’t have to worry about her in this year’s edition of the Chandelier S.-G2. The daughter of Arrogate gives every indication that she will continue to improve with experience and distance, and in her first try around two turns the Peter Eurton-trained filly should be ready for an explosive performance. The pace projects to be decent at the very least, so we’re expecting this $950,000 OBS March purchase to produce a winning late kick while offering excellent value at or near her morning line of 5-1.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Slider
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Slider earned giant speed figures in both of his starts to date, most recently when graduating at Del Mar with an ideal pace-stalking trip and a strong late kick that separated himself from his rivals from the furlong pole to the wire. He’ll try turf today and while his pedigree doesn’t guarantee he’ll move up on the lawn, the son of Jimmy Creed is simply faster than these. The option is there to settle in the second flight and make a late run should jockey Hector Berrios deem it advisable. The John Sadler-trained colt is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Magic Spoon; 6-Red On Sunday; 9-Stay On the Fence
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: This maiden state-bred juvenile sprint is borderline inscrutable. The known element appears average, and we have no video on the fast working first-timer Magic Spoon, so the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows in the various rolling exotics. Small ticket players should consider at least using the three listed above. ‘Spoon has turned in a few fast-timed drills so we have to assume he can run some, though his rail post position makes his hard to back with confidence. Red On Sunday finished an okay second in his debut at Del Mar when facing a similar field and the Peter Miller barn has strong stats with second timers, so this Smiling Tiger gelding is an obvious contender. Stay On the Fence was beaten a neck at Del Mar in his second start last month at Del Mar and with another forward move today should be right there.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Lord Bullingdon; 9-Sand Bagger.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Andreadytorumble.

Forecast: Lord Bullingdon was a willing runner-up in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf-G2 last month and earned a decent speed figure in the process. This will be his third start, so another forward move is likely, and with this return to the maiden ranks the son of Lord Nelson is the logical top pick. Sand Bagger is an intriguing first time starter from the Richard Mandella barn with series of good works that should have him fit and ready. He doesn’t strike us as a speed type but his dam was a good grass mare so this colt may be better than his dirt drills indicate. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.

*

RACE 7: Post: 4:11 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Bag’s Gold; 7-Elevado; 6-Book Smart.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Bag’s Gold was dreadful as the favorite in a first level allowance state-bred sprint at Del Mar after winning his previous race with a powerful figure. If he runs back to his race before last, he’ll beat these, plain and simple, and a bullet training track drill last week gives hope that he’s ready to bounce back. Elevado earned a decent number when handling restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers at Del Mar and today tackles tougher (nw-3, $20,000) in his first start since being haltered by Mark Glatt. The Street Boss gelding has the proper second flight, stalking style for this extended sprint distance. Book Smart won a nw-2 $32,000 seller in early August at Del Mar but has been on the shelf for two months and is dropping in price off that win, making his current condition a bit of a question mark. On pure numbers, he’s right there with these, so we’ll include him but not necessarily trust him.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Anisette; 6-Dida
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Anisette tackles older foes today in her toughest test to date, but the Del Mar Oaks-G1 winner has numbers that should allow her to compete quite well against these seasoned fillies and mares, and we suspect that she’s ready for another high class performance over a mile and one-quarter trip that should bring out her best. This is her audition for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and we’re expecting that she’ll pass the test. Didia is an outstanding Eastern invader with superior form and powerful figures that make her strictly the one to beat. The Argentine-bred mare was unbeaten in the States through her first four North American starts but then finished second in her most recent outing in June in the New York Stakes-G1, losing nothing in defeat. She will give our top pick all she can handle.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: A
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Muth
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Muth should be lone gone stretching out for the first time in this year’s renewal of the American Pharoah Stakes-G1, a critical prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Below his best form when a distant second to stable mate Prince of Monaco in the Best Pal S.-G2 last time out, the son of Good Magic has worked brilliantly since returning to Santa Anita, where he broke his maiden at first asking by almost nine lengths in June. He’s better now than then, so we’re expecting him to put on an exhibition at a very short price.

*

RACE 10: Post: 5:41 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Kissed by Fire; 2-Ragtime Rose; 6-Alvina.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Here’s a difficult grass sprint for first level allowance fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Kissed by Fire is the quickest of the quick and following a confidence building maiden turf sprint win at Del Mar the Peter Eurton-trained daughter of Friesan Fire should be capable of taking the class hike in style. Today’s extra furlong may test her, but as the controlling speed she should be able to get the trip. Ragtime Rose, freshened since May, returns as a first time Lasix user and could be the most dangerous of the closers. She’s won over this course and distance in the past and could be an even better type this time around for Jeff Mullins. Alvina has a chance if there’s a pace meltdown. She’s seeking her first U.S. win since being imported from France should be running on strongly through the lane.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 09:59 AM

Peter Lurie Santa Anita Picks

SAT, 10-07Picks are pre weather and scratches. Good luck!
R1. 8-1-4-2R2. 4-8-1-6
R3. 7-2-8-1
R4. 1-10-6-3
R5. 9-3-6-5
R6. 8-9-12-4 $3 ALL TURF PK3. 8,9,12/2,6/1,4
R7. 6-9-1-7
R8. 2-6-1-4
R9. 2-3-4-1
R10. 4-1-9-10
SA/KEE PK6. 1,4,6/2,7/3,9/1,5/2,6/2
SA PK6
MUST USE: R6 #8
LONGSHOT: R8. #6

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:00 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Tulsa +3 over Florida Atlantic

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:00 AM

Free play from Totals4UEarly Saturday Free Selection: Washington State Cougars/UCLA Bruins over 60 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:00 AM

Free play from #1 SportsEarly Saturday's Free Play: Eastern Michigan Eagles - 2 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:01 AM

Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Early Saturday Football Selection From Lee
Maryland +18.5

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:01 AM

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play
Wake Forest +21 CFB Saturday

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:02 AM

Free play from Teyas SportsFREE PICK 10/7/23 CFB COLORADO -3 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:02 AM

Free play from Kenny TowersYour Free Pick up for Saturday - Rice -10 over Connecticut

Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 5-5

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:02 AM

Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take Colorado St -3

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:03 AM

Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, October 7, 2023

CFB
10/07 05:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET
CF (369) FRESNO STATE VS (370) WYOMING
Take: UNDER the TOTAL
Reason: Mountain West clash here today has Wyoming hosting Fresno State from Laramie, WY. The Fresno State Bulldogs come into this game 24th in the nation at 5-0 and will face a 4-1 Cowboys squad. Fresno has beaten Wyoming in four straight games, including last year in a 30-0 shutout. Fresno coming off a tough outing last week vs Nevada, failing to cover the 25.5-point favorite spread in a 27-9 win. Still, the Dogs average 36.4 ppgs this season, ranking them 26th in the nation. They average 304.8 ypg passing (14th in nation) and 120.2 yards rushing (108th). Their defense is very good, allowing just 17 ppg (23rd in country) and allowing just 282 yards per game (14th). Wyoming coming off a fine start to the season at 4-1, with their only loss coming against Texas, 10-31. They won their first conference game last week against New Mexico, 35-26, failing to cover the 14.5-point line. Wyoming averages 26.6 ppg (84th) and 324.6 ypg (115th). The Wyoming offense will have troubles against this very good Fresno defense. Your free play is on the UNDER.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:03 AM

Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2023
CFB
399. South Florida -3 (1 PT / 4 ET)

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:03 AM

Free play from Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Texas St Bobcats +2.5 over UL Lafayette

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:03 AM

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday :Take TULSA +3 over Florida-Atlantic

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:04 AM

Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 124-84 run Sat MLB Houston w/ Verlander-160

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:04 AM

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: TEMPLE +14 over UTSA

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:04 AM

Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for Saturday
ATLANTA BRAVES (Game One, NLDS)

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:05 AM

Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: MINNESOTA +19 over Michigan

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:05 AM

Free play from Atlantic SportsEarly Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Ohio Bobcats - 24 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:05 AM

Free play from Sharp BettorSharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2023
FREE
CFB
363. TCU -6.5 (5 PT / 8 ET)

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:05 AM

Free play from Hawkeye SportsEarly Saturday's Free Pick: Miami-Ohio Redhawks - 8 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:05 AM

Free play from The Last CallSaturday's Early Free Play: (386) Troy Trojans 15 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:06 AM

Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Early Saturday: North Texas Mean Green + 6 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:06 AM

Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
Kentucky Wildcats (NCAAF)

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:07 AM

ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven 1* NCAAF Annihilator.
Free Play: Texas-5 -113

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Texas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference. Oklahoma are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 6.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:07 AM

Jeff Alexander

1* NCAAF - Rutgers/Wisconsin FREE Pick on Rutgers +13.5

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:07 AM

Ray Monohan

Toledo -19

This Saturday's game is between the Toledo Rockets (4-1, 2-3 ATS) and the UMASS Minutemen (1-5, 2-4 ATS). It starts at 12:00 PM ET and takes place at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts. You can watch it on ESPNU.

Looking at the odds, Toledo is the favorite with -19.5 odds, and the total points expected in the game are 59. If you want to pick the winners, Toledo has -1346 ML odds, while UMASS has +771 odds as the dog.

UMASS lost 52-28 to Arkansas State in their last game, while Toledo won 35-33 against Northern Illinois. Toledo can put up points, they're averaging 40PPG in 2023, and they only allow 22PPG. A good recipe for success.

UMASS allows 39PPG, and hasn't been great with spreads, as they had a 5-7-0 ATS record last year and failed to win outright in any of the 10 games where they were listed as underdogs.

Toledo can run the ball, they can pass the ball, and they can also defend the run and defend the pass better than UMASS can. Don't overthink this one, and don't get me started on the turnovers surely to come.

Some trends to note, Toledo are 6-1 SU in their L7 games, and they're 5-0 SU in their L5 games against Massachusetts. UMASS are 0-6 ATS in their L6 games at home, are 1-4 ATS in their L5 games, and are 0-6 ATS in their L6 games at home.

I really don't think 19 points is too many if I'm being honest. I think this game will land somewhere around 33-35 to 10 (or less). At least that's where my trusty CFB super computer forecast puts it.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE CFB ATS Play

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:08 AM

Alex Smart

Free Play: Missouri+4.5

Each of these offenses ranks in the Top 3 of the SEC in success rate, but the difference maker Im betting will be Missouri quarterback Brady Cook who has not thrown in interception in 347 pass attempts . He holds the SEC record for most pass attempts without an interception. After taking part in a 55-49 back and forth tilt last week for a OT loss vs Ole Miss. , Im betting LSU goes into immediate regression in a emotional letdown scenario. MISSOURI is 12-2 ATS in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. Drinkwitz is 9-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of MISSOURI. Drinkwitz is 10-2 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game as the coach of MISSOURI.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB home team (MISSOURI) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 36-6 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Missouri to cover

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:08 AM

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on UCLA-3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:09 AM

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Texas A&M+120

No analysis provided.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:09 AM

Mike Lundin

Mike's Alabama/Texas A&M CFB Free Pick

Both teams are coming at 4-1 on the season, with Alabama taking a 34-24 loss to Texas on Sept 9 and Texas A&M a 48-33 loss at Miami-Florida on the same day.

The Crimson Tide may not be the absolute powerhouse we are used to, but it's still a very talented team, and outside of the loss to Texas, the Alabama defense is giving up only nine points per game.

The Tide are 12-3 all-time against Texas A&M, and with Texas A&M's starting QB Conner Weigman sidelined for the rest of the year with a foot injury, I don't see the Aggies stealing this one either.

2* free pick on Alabama-130.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:09 AM

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Louisiana -2

Texas State has been a nice story this season getting off to a 4-1 start. But after losing on the road at UTSA, the schedule has been very soft the last three games with wins over Jackson State, Nevada and Southern Miss. Now the Bobcats face arguably their toughest game of the season on the road at Louisiana. The Rajin' Cajuns are 3-2 this season with both losses coming on the road by 7 at Old Dominion and by 11 at Minnesota. They were dominant in their three wins and have really good numbers on the season. Louisiana is averaging 454 yards per game and 7.0 per play on offense and allowing 337 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense. Louisiana is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 matchups with Texas State with all 10 wins coming by double-digits. The Rajin' Cajuns beat the Bobcats by 28 last year and by 45 in 2021. Give me Louisiana.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:09 AM

Rob Vinciletti

Loaded Saturday card has the 2023 College TOTAL Of the YEAR and 5 Big Sides. There is also a massive 39-3 MLB Div. Series system up and more. Comp play below.

The Saturday Comp Play is on Ball. St plus the 2-3 points at 3:30 eastern. Ball St fits a powerful 49-13 System pertaining to Saturday conference road dogs from 2 to 7 that have revenge for a favored lost -8 or less and lost by 11 or less points and are off a loss today and the total is 42 or more ans the games is a week 5 or later match. The Cardinals have covered 4 of 5 here vs Eastern Michigan. The have played a tough schedule on the road vs Georgia and Kentucky.. Eastern Michigan has had trouble scoring 23 or less in 3 of 4 games. Look for Ball St to sere up some revenge. On Saturday font make a move until you jump on the 2023 College Football Total of the Year headlining another big CFB Card that has 5 big sides one from a 33-2 system. In MLB Action Rob has a 39-3 Divisional Series system and a Perfect totals system. Jump on NOW and put the Power of the most Exclusive data in the Industry on Your Side. For the Comp play. Take the points with Ball. St. Rob V-

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:10 AM

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas State/Troy OVER 51.5

This Sun Belt showdown between Troy and Arkansas State has shootout written all over it Saturday. That has been the case in recent meetings as well with 57 or more combined points in eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups, including 67 last season.

Troy boasts a very efficient passing attack with 270 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per attempt. Veteran QB Gunnar Watson is having another solid season, completing 61.2% of his passes for 1,303 yards and a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio. RB Kimani Vidal has rushed for 590 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 5.7 per carry.

The Trojans are going to be able to name their number on this weak Arkansas State defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 36.4 points per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. They just gave up 37 to Southern Miss and 28 to UMass in their last two games coming in. Take out the 7 points allowed to woeful FCS Stony Brook, and the numbers look even worse for this defense.

But Arkansas State probably has its best offense of the Butch Jones era, largely due to the play of QB Jaylen Raynor, who has been an upgrade over an injured J.T. Shrout. Raynor is completing 67.3% of his passes with a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 189 yards on 5.3 per carry and two scores. He is the reason for their offensive explosions the last two weeks, putting up 44 points on Southern Miss and 52 more on UMass.

Butch Jones is 13-3 OVER in road games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 yards per play or more as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:10 AM

Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Vanderbilt vs Florida over 50.5

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:10 AM

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Tulsa+3

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:10 AM

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Arizona State+4.5 -115

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:11 AM

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS+4.5 -115 for our Saturday Free Play. The Colorado love continues as it comes in as a road favorite after being a road underdog of three or more touchdowns in its first two road games. Granted, the competition goes down a bunch here but this team is filled with flaws. The defense did a great job against the run last week against USC but was lit up through the air once again and that is not good facing a team that has gotten its passing game going. The absence of Travis Hunter on the defensive side cannot be understated as the unit is allowing 36.6 ppg which is worst in the conference. Arizona St. has lost four straight games which is playing into this number as well but this is a good matchup in a very winnable games as a home underdog. The Sun Devils have come to life on offense since head coach Kenny Dillingham took over the offensive play calling and they are coming off their best games of the season with 430 totals yards and 6.0 yppl. They go against a Colorado defense that is ranked No. 124 in defensive EPA and their own defense has been strong with the exception of the game against USC. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 2.5 or more turnovers per game and after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse going up against a team averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1992. Play (378) Arizona St. Sun Devils

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:11 AM

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Colorado/Arizona State OVER 59.5

The Key: Colorado is a clear OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense. It's rare you're going to have the opportunity to back an OVER on them the rest of the season of under 60 points. I like the price we are getting here. The Buffaloes have scored at least 36 points in 4 of their 5 games this year. The Buffaloes have allowed 35 or more points in 4 of their 5 games this year as well. Arizona State has a poor defense, but the offense has come to life in recent weeks. The Sun Devils scored 28 points on USC and 21 on a good California defense last week. They also had 430 total yards on the Golden Bears. Neither team can run the football, so both will be keeping it in the air in this one which will benefit the OVER. Colorado is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a game with 80 or more combined points. Take the OVER.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:11 AM

ASA

#378 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona State +4.5 over Colorado, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - We expect an emotional letdown for Colorado here. They’ve been through 5 straight weeks of huge games @ TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, @ Oregon, and USC. On top of that, last week they got down big 41-14 more than midway through the 3rd quarter vs USC before expending all kinds of energy rallying back to make it a game before losing 48-41. Now going on the road to play a ho hum opponent in ASU is a perfect spot for the Buffs to take a break and not play with the intensity they have been this season. If that happens, there is a good chance they lose this game outright. We’ve said this all season – the Buffs are a solid passing team but not really very good at anything else. Their offensive line is a mish mash of lower tier transfers (2 starters from the MAC) and returning players who weren’t effective last season. They have almost no running game ranking 120th nationally in that stat averaging just 83 YPG. Defensively they’ve been a sieve allowing 480 YPG ranking 128th in the country. Those factors do not bode well when laying points on the road. ASU is playing hard and they’ve improved. The last 2 weeks they’ve covered the spread by a combined 30 points vs USC and Cal. Last week the Devils put up 430 total yards, outgained Cal by a more than 100 yards, and nearly pulled the upset as a 13 point dog losing 24-21. The Sun Devils are trending in the right direction and this is a huge home game for them where as it’s Colorado’s least “sexy” game so far this season. Upset alert and we’ll grab Arizona State plus the points.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:11 AM

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Arizona State +4.5 -115

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:12 AM

Brandon Lee

7* NCAAF Kentucky/Georgia Free Pick

PLAY ON GEORGIA BULLDOGS -14

I'm going to lay the 14-points with Georgia at home against Kentucky. This line makes no sense at all. On one side you have a Georgia team that despite a 5-0 SU record has failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games. Kentucky is also 5-0 SU, but they are 4-1 ATS and coming off an impressive blowout win and cover in a 33-14 home win over Florida as a mere 1-point favorite. The betting public has grown tired of laying the points with Georgia and are lining up to take the points with the Wildcats. Close to 70% of the action is on Kentucky right now. Given that you would expect this line to be dropping, but it's not. Most books have moved this to Georgia -14.5 with a couple going to -15. Whenever the public is all over a dog like they are here, I will almost always look to go the other way. This has all the makings of a statement game for the Bulldogs, who simply can't continue to play as poorly as they have to start games. I also think it's a bad matchup for Kentucky, who relies so much on their run game to get their offense going. It will not be easy running the ball against this Georgia defense. Give me the Bulldogs -14!

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:13 AM

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #402 Minnesota Golden Gophers+20.5 over Michigan Wolverines (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 7 NBC) Michigan will be playing their second straight road games and I do not see them blowing out another conference opponent. Michigan had a perfect start last week against Nebraska, but Minnesota will try and grind the clock on them and keep the scoring in the forties. Minnesota has been scoring points in their last two games and if they reach the twenties in this game, that should be enough to get the cover. Michigan has not looked great against subpar opponents and playing in back-to-back road games will not allow them the cover in this night game at Minnesota. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring MLB Playoff Picks, WNBA Finals Picks, and all the other sports including daily props. Get in on the action now and let 52 years of handicapping experience work for you.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:14 AM

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Michigan-18.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:15 AM

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on FRES-5.5 -115

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Fresno State are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.

- Wyoming are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.

- Fresno State are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:15 AM

Vic Duke

Free Pick: Wyoming+6

Fresno State/Wyoming 8:00: On the surface, Fresno would appear to be a double-digit favorite in this game; after all, their defense has been lights out on their last 3 foes while UCF transfer QB Keene is averaging 300 YPG through the air en route to a 36.4 PPG average. A closer look at their last three foes reveal a combined 2-13 SU record. And after season opener at Purdue (narrow win), the Bulldogs traded points with FCS lightweight Eastern Washington. And Tedford lost a lot of talent from last year's winning team. Going up to Laramie to play into revenge will not be easy. Wyoming a sweet 11-2 ATS with revenge off back-to-back SU wins. Wyoming the call.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:15 AM

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-7-23

Colorado State @ Utah State (8:00 PM EST)
Play On: Colorado State -3

The Colorado State Rams travel to Utah State to take on the Aggies on Saturday night. Colorado State is 1-2 overall this year while Utah State comes in with a 2-3 overall record on the season. Colorado State averages 354 passing yards per game while their defense only gives up 103.7 rushing yards per game this year. Utah State is allowing 33.8 points per game overall this year, 36.5 points per game at home this season and 39 points per game past 3 games overall. Colorado State barely lost to Colorado a few weeks back while Utah State's offensive stats are a little misleading when they put up 78 points at home against Idaho State. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado State on Saturday night! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:16 AM

Freddy Wills

Iowa State +7 -120 1.2% Free play

Iowa State has faced elite level defense so far, and the offense is gaining confidence and hitting strides. Overall they faced an average 24th ranked ypp defense, an average opponent 31st ranked passing success ranked defense, and 27th opponent success rate defense. It’s a pass first offense and they’ll get a chance to attack TCU who ranks 106th in passing success rate. Iowa State has not turned the ball over, and they play good defense especially at home. I think we are getting value with this number, and Matt Campbell 10-4-1 ATS as a home dog. It’s an 8pm home game against a team that went to the college football playoff. TCU just lost last week and gave up 200+ yards on the ground to West Virginia, a team that always struggles to play on the road.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:18 AM

Sean Murphy

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles-195 over Arizona at 9:20 pm et on Saturday.

Fairly obvious choice here as we'll fade the Diamondbacks off their stunning series sweep of the Brewers in the Wild Card round. The Dodgers will hand the ball to future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw and I expect him to continue his dominance over Arizona, noting he owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 45 career outings against it. Merrill Kelly will start for the D'Backs and he owns a 2-14 team record in 16 career starts against the Dodgers, logging a 5.70 ERA and 1.70 WHIP along the way. Having been idle since last Sunday with the N.L. West wrapped up for quite some time, the Dodgers can't wait to play 'real' baseball. Look for them to get rolling in a hurry on Saturday against Arizona. Take Los Angeles.

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:18 AM

Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Seattle Sounders FC+106 (Soccer)

ConleyPicks

10-07-2023, 10:18 AM

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Arizona Wildcats+21

Game 375.

7:30 PM PST/10:30 PM EST.

Guys, before you get in a big huff about me choosing Arizona against USC this week, take a deep breath and read my entire analysis (LOL). I'm not going to argue the fact the Trojans don't deserve to be the ninth ranked team in the nation. I mean come on, their offense is absolutely amazing. They rank first in college football in scoring, third in total yards, fourth in passing, and 50th in rushing. I'm also not going to argue quarterback, Caleb Williams, as of this point, is a definite Heisman-candidate. No question, head coach, Lincoln Riley has put together a hell of an offensive juggernaut. This in turn will certainly attract millions of dollars from other universities wanting to come and visit them. And tons of recruits wanting to show off their talents for NFL scouts. That's all well and good. But let's be very, very honest, this team has totally given up on defense. And yet the oddsmakers are still overvaluing them each week. They covered against Nevada and Stanford. But couldn't get bettors paid, failing to cover against San Jose State, Arizona State, and Colorado. As a matter fact, the last few opponents, the Sun Devils, and the Buffaloes, had them on the ropes. Guys, I'm not going sit here and argue that Arizona is going to take the conference. They won’t. Let's face it, they're just 3-2 straight up with wins against Northern Arizona, UTEP, and Stanford. They did come close against Mississippi State on the road as well as Washington at home, two teams that they on paper, are far inferior from. But this team does cover the pointspread, going 4-1 ATS this season. They have a less than stellar offense, but certainly strong enough to move the chains against the USC defense. Defensively, they hardly slowed down the Bulldogs and the Huskies, but they did play strong enough on both sides of the ball to keep those contests close. I doubt they're going to make this one too easy for the Trojans here. The status of quarterback, Jayden de Laura is still uncertain as of this post. But backup play-caller, Noah Fifita was good enough to compete last week against Washington. If he gets to start this week, I expect him to do the same. And with Notre Dame up next on the road at South Bend, perhaps Southern Cal might be in a “look ahead” mode or at the very least, take their foot off the gas come the second half. This is way too many points to give a very game, Arizona team. Take the Wildcats. Thank you.