Saturday 10/14/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ThistledownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=tdn1013zf.pdf&exp=10/15/2023&pds=TDN_-_10/13/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/13/2023;TRACK_CODE=TDN&SAP=FREEPICS)


Thistledown - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta


Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $29,700 • Post: 4:50P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibas e Class Rating at the distance/surface. CITY OF CLOUDS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CYCLONE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CENTSOFWANDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



2

GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD

5/2


4/1




6

CITY OF CLOUDS

2/1


6/1




7

CYCLONE

5/1


7/1




4

CENTSOFWANDER

9/2


7/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD

2


5/2

Front-runner

88


75


77.0


78.3


70.3




6

CITY OF CLOUDS

6


2/1

Stalker

84


86


68.2


73.5


67.5




1

HURRY ON OUT

1


10/1

Trailer

84


70


65.8


56.7


47.2




4

CENTSOFWANDER

4


9/2

Trailer

87


83


55.8


81.6


74.6




7

CYCLONE

7


5/1

Trailer

86


79


49.8


80.2


75.2




5

FALK

5


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

68


75


93.9


53.1


41.1




3

R CARDINAL PRINCE

3


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

87


81


53.6


75.8


68.8

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles TownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ct1013zf.pdf&exp=10/15/2023&pds=CT_-_10/13/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/13/2023;TRACK_CODE=CT&SAP=FREEPICS)


Charles Town - Race 8

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta


Maiden Special • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 53 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 10:32


FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. RIGHT TO REFUSE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RIGHT TO REFUSE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. VERY VENUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS ARGENTINA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highe st average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



11

RIGHT TO REFUSE

7/2


9/2




4

VERY VENUS

5/2


5/1




5

MISS ARGENTINA

3/1


7/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

OUR BREW

8


8/1

Alternator/Front-runner

52


39


57.2


36.5


30.5




5

MISS ARGENTINA

5


3/1

Stalker

49


47


9.1


45.2


39.2




11

RIGHT TO REFUSE

11


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


65.4


53.1


48.6




4

VERY VENUS

4


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

49


43


58.2


43.4


36.9




3

S S FOUR QUEENS

3


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

42


33


25.0


33.1


21.1




2

FAR MORE

2


8/1

Trailer

51


45


35.6


41.0


31.5




1

PALACIO

1


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


45.5


22.8


7.8




7

SHE'S A BRICKHOUSE

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


27.5


31.3


18.8































Unknown Running Style: GANGSTER AMERICANO (10/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Victor - Trainer: Joy Kevin J], PRINCESS URSULA (15/1) [Jockey: Araujo Denis - Trainer: Schottroffe Edward T], PRINCESS MARGARET (5/1) [Jockey: Hiraldo Christian - Trainer: Grams Tim

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=rp1013zz.htm&exp=10/15/2023&pds=RP_-_10/13/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/13/2023;TRACK_CODE=RP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 101

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 13, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13, 2023 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 JACKMAN'S RIDE 5/1




# 3 ALTO ROAD 8/1




# 7 ALGEBRA 4/1




JACKMAN'S RIDE looks solid to best this field. Risk takers should feel comfortable with this pick given Diego's recent gains at the window. With Diego on top him, this gelding will almost certainly be able to break out sharply here. Has to be carefully examined based on the very good Equibase speed fig recorded in the last race. ALTO ROAD - Difficult to pass on this colt with Fuentes in the irons. Has to be given a shot for this event if only for the formidable speed figure garnered in the last contest. ALGEBRA - This pony has a terrific winning percentage in dirt sprints. Overall the Speed Figures of this animal look very strong in this affair.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=baq1013zm.htm&exp=10/15/2023&pds=BAQ_-_10/13/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/13/2023;TRACK_CODE=BAQ&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belmont at the Big A - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 KHADULLAH (ML=8/1)
#2 INONIT (ML=9/2)


KHADULLAH - Last raced at Saratoga carrying 5 pounds more. The lower weight assigned in this field should serve him well. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This colt should do better hitting the dirt today. INONIT - Horse didn't get the best of trips in his debut. I look for an improvement today. That 64 fig this colt garnered in his last race tells me he's a major player in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WISECRACKER (ML=5/2), #6 PANDAGATE (ML=3/1), #1 MAMA'S MIDDIE (ML=7/2),

WISECRACKER - The finish position of sixth in the last event shows me that this horse may be going off form. Not likely that the fig he garnered on September 4th will be good enough in this race. PANDAGATE - I just don't possess a good sensation about this mount in this affair. MAMA'S MIDDIE - Last ran on Aug 12th at Saratoga, finishing sixth. Unlikely to get better off of that try in today's event.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #7 KHADULLAH on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at LaurelPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=lrl1013zz.htm&exp=10/15/2023&pds=LRL_-_10/13/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/13/2023;TRACK_CODE=LRL&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 68

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $24,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 10 HAINT BLUE (FR) 2/1




# 16 BELLESHAZZA 5/2




# 11 IMAGINETHEODDS 5/1




I think HAINT BLUE (FR) is a very good choice. Overall the speed figures of this pony look very strong in this affair. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last competition. The average class figure of 75 makes this entrant difficult to beat. BELLESHAZZA - Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the front end recently. Solid average speed figures in turf route races make this racer a contender.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=del1013zm.htm&exp=10/15/2023&pds=DEL_-_10/13/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/13/2023;TRACK_CODE=DEL&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Delaware Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:30pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 MOLIERE (ML=8/1)
#5 LIFESPAN (ML=6/1)


MOLIERE - Faced tougher last time around the track at Parx Racing. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders. LIFESPAN - Was in a $6,250 Claiming race at Delaware Park in the last race. That event had a class number of 86 and he is moving down right here in this race. A certain win candidate. This horse ran off the board at Delaware Park in the last race on the mud. He should improve right here under better track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SALTY HEIR (ML=5/2), #2 WARRIOR IN CHIEF (ML=6/1), #8 ROARING RIVER (ML=8/1),

SALTY HEIR - Couldn't close any ground at any point on Sep 7th. Hard to bet on this time around at the expected odds. This racer ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig last time out. He shouldn't run much better and will likely lose in today's race running that number. WARRIOR IN CHIEF - Doubtful that this questionable contender can take the punishment of another grueling run down the stretch after the last two efforts. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a likely underlay. ROARING RIVER - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 MOLIERE is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles TownAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 58

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 JUST CALL ME AL 7/5




# 9 GREATANDGOOD 8/1




# 1 ALDARIGHTTRICKS 9/2




JUST CALL ME AL looks respectable to best this field. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this field of horses. Has performed well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 56 avg speed fig. Must be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. GREATANDGOOD - This colt could improve with second time Lasix. Must be given a chance given the class of races run recently. ALDARIGHTTRICKS - Looks quite good versus this group and will probably be one of the leaders.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park

Lone Star Park - Race 5

Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 6 (Races 5-6-7-8-9-10)


Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 •Purse: $17,000 • Post: 7:57P


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RIDE AROUND: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FIRST TIME FOR WINE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. IM SITA: Qua rter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. DOS CORONA FLASH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CANDY FACE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



1

RIDE AROUND

8/1


5/1




7

FIRST TIME FOR WINE

5/2


7/1




10

IM SITA

3/1


7/1




12

DOS CORONA FLASH

30/1


8/1




3

CANDY FACE

15/1


8/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

RIDE AROUND

1


8/1

Average

83


92


4.9


0.0


0.0




2

CJ CLASSY SASSY CHIC

2


12/1

Slow

74


77


6.1


0.0


0.0




3

CANDY FACE

3


15/1

Average

81


83


3.6


0.0


0.0




4

JUST DE VINE

4


20/1

Average

81


67


4.7


0.0


0.0




5

CHICKS CUTIE

5


2/1

Average

77


78


5.0


0.0


0.0




6

CARDI B CORONA

6


20/1

Fast

82


70


3.2


0.0


0.0




7

FIRST TIME FOR WINE

7


5/2

Average

80


81


4.3


0.0


0.0




8

TONIGHT IS THE NIGHT

8


20/1

Average

79


69


4.1


0.0


0.0




9

OVER THE MOONIN

9


20/1

Average

77


76


4.7


0.0


0.0




10

IM SITA

10


3/1

Fast

79


81


2.7


0.0


0.0




11

PRECIOUS DYNASTY

11


10/1

Average

82


76


4.7


0.0


0.0




12

DOS CORONA FLASH

12


30/1

Slow

85


86


6.3


0.0


0.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - SO - 12.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 ITASCA (ML=5/1)
#4 BOURBON WISDOM (ML=8/1)
#1 MY BROTHER CAM (ML=3/1)
#3 ROYAL DRAGOON (ML=4/1)


ITASCA - Jock hops back aboard after getting to know the horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a helpful angle. Be loyal to this racer. Coming off the pace, I think he'll be in a fantastic spot to crush them in the stretch. This gelding is in fine form, having run a good race on September 26th, finishing third. BOURBON WISDOM - This thoroughbred coming off a good effort in the last month is a contender in my humble opinion. MY BROTHER CAM - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on September 26th. ROYAL DRAGOON - Bowen and Urieta getting together are a horse gambler's friend. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a strong effort last race out within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ZERO GRAVITY (ML=5/2), #2 CINDY'S STORM (ML=9/2),

ZERO GRAVITY - The speed ratings continue to drop, 96/85/76. Not a good signal. Don't feel this racer will make an impact in today's race. That last rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. CINDY'S STORM - Tough to keep stabbing at this sort of 'hanger' horse. Doubtful that the speed fig he earned on Sep 28th will be good enough in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #7 ITASCA on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FresnoAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 MORNING ADDICTION 5/2




# 4 BLUEBERRY MUFFIN 2/1




# 1 AIR FORCE WOMAN 3/1




I think MORNING ADDICTION is a very strong choice. He has been racing well lately while recording strong speed figures. Jockey's recent return on investment figures make this horse a good wager. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the competition. BLUEBERRY MUFFIN - Has to be given consideration in this event if only for the quite good speed figure put up in the last race. Cruz has a win percentage of 24 over the last month. AIR FORCE WOMAN- This mare has a good win percent in dirt sprint races. Like the finish positions in the last several events.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Meadowlands

Meadowlands - Race 3

Win, Place and Show Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta Daily Double (Races 3-4)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) 50-Cent Pick 4 (Races 3-4-5-6)


Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 7:53P


(RAIL AT 17 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. BOOYAH is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * TWO MINUTES APART: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DOOQ: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FAST STUDY: Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER SPRINTER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout ti me is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.



5

TWO MINUTES APART

5/1


6/1




3

DOOQ

3/1


6/1




1

FAST STUDY

7/2


6/1




7

SILVER SPRINTER

10/1


7/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

DOOQ

3


3/1

Front-runner

74


66


71.6


62.0


53.0




5

TWO MINUTES APART

5


5/1

Alternator/Front-runner

71


62


86.7


58.4


50.9




4

PASCHAL MOON

4


4/1

Alternator/Front-runner

0


0


69.7


55.7


48.7




9

BOOYAH

9


20/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


77.7


55.0


42.5




7

SILVER SPRINTER

7


10/1

Trailer

76


70


68.2


50.2


42.7




8

DRUID

8


15/1

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


70.2


57.6


48.6




1

FAST STUDY

1


7/2

Alternator/Trailer

67


59


70.1


60.7


53.7




10

SYNCOPATED

10


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

64


59


66.0


56.0


42.0




2

AFFAMATO

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


64.5


37.9


19.9




11

FIFTH ELEMENT

11


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

61


55


40.2


44.0


27.0































Unknown Running Style: HARTSBEATLIKTHUNDR (6/1) [Jockey: Luzzi Lane J - Trainer: Falcone Jr Robert N].

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 14, 2023
Oct. 12, 2023
Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 14 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old


Analysis and Top contenders:


A VERY strong field of three year old filly turf stars lines up for this pretty prestigious race, one of the last grade 1 stakes restricted to three year olds on the year. As is the case with many a top turf race in North America, European horses have an edge, particularly three year olds at this time of year and they have faced tougher and are often farther along physically and mentally.

With that in mind Elusive Princess (2) gets top billing, although she has already made her U.S. debut. That came in August in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational where she rallied in visually impressive fashion from sixth with a quarter mile to go, nearly 12 paths wide on the turn, to get to the front in the stretch, before widening her lead. The effort earned a strong 106 Equibase Figure, the BEST among any North American effort any of the rest have put in. She comes back from a similar two month layoff, with Prat riding back and those are good signs for a repeat. Elusive Princess’ European form was strong as well as she was second in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary Stakes in May, at 10 furlongs, earning a 117 figure. The Saratoga Oaks was run at one mile and three-sixteenths so this mile and one-eighth trip is perfect for another big effort, particularly as none of the other four European horses, have run this far.

Mawj (4) has won five of eight races, including the Group 1 1000 Guineas Stakes when last seen in May. She’s never run farther than a mile but her breeding suggests this nine furlong trip is well within her reach. Top European jockey Oisin Murphy comes across the pond to ride and was up for the first time when Mawj won the 1000 Guineas and that effort earned a 121 figure which, if repeated, is certainly good enough to win here. Even though she opens at 2 to 1 compared to 3 to 1 for Elusive Princess, those odds likely being a bit low for a win bet, Mawj must be used as a win contender on any exacta or trifecta tickets played involving this race.

Sounds of Heaven (7) rounds out the trio of top contenders. She has only run five times and has won twice, but her best effort came when third in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, where she was beaten a neck for second and a length for the win and earned a 116 Equibase figure. She’s a daughter of Kingman which means this nine furlong trip she’s running for the first time is no problem at all. Like Mawj, Sounds of Heaven brings her European based jockey, Shane Foley, along to ride and he was aboard for one of her two wins. Just like the most recent races in Europe run by Elusive Princess (the Group 1 Prix de Diane or French Oaks) and my Mawj (the Group 1 1000 Guineas), Sounds of Heaven faced much tougher (than the North American horses have faced) when running in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at the end of July and in spite of finishing sixth still earned a 109 speed figure better than any of the U.S. runners have earned.

For second position on some exacta tickets, and for third on trifecta tickets, we can include a few other, some which will offer double digit odds. That group consists of Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13).

Bets:

Win: Elusive Princess (2) can and should be considered for a win bet at 8 to 5 or higher.

Mawj (4) can be considered for a win bet at 9 to 5 or higher.

Sounds of Heaven (7) can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Elusive Princess (2) and Mawj (4)

Box Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7)

Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4), Sounds of Heaven (7), Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13).

Trifecta:

Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4), Sounds of Heaven (7), Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7)

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 14
Oct. 13, 2023










Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $30,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
6
Libertango
W A Rodriguez


PLACE
7-2
3
Canavall
L Saez


SHOW
5-2
5
Creative Way
T Gaffalione


WILD CARD
9-2
1
Stand for Freedom
C Landeros





ALTERNATE 1
20-1
9
Vale
R Santana Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Shotshell
C A Torres








* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX









RACE #2 $75,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET



BEST BET: #7 ANDYS CANDY









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
7
Andys Candy
F Arrieta


PLACE
20-1
4
Cajun Fool
J Rocco Jr.


SHOW
6-1
12
Patriot Hills
R Santana Jr.


WILD CARD
6-1
2
Tap Anchor
K J Asmussen





ALTERNATE 1
50-1
6
The Rush Is On
M Strandberg


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
11
Stormy Mesa
L Saez








* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/7/12 BOX, 2/4/12 BOX









RACE #3 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-5
6
Lightline
T Gaffalione


PLACE
6-1
5
Stretch Ride
M Chuan


SHOW
20-1
4
Sticky Note
A Achard


WILD CARD
7-2
3
Seize the Grey
J A Torres





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
7
Edified
J Rosario


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
2
Astronomico
C A Torres








* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX









RACE #4 $62,500 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET



BEST BET: #8 IT TAKES HEART









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
8
It Takes Heart
L Saez


PLACE
8-1
10
Shell Shock
K J Asmussen


SHOW
12-1
6
Coexist
E Morales


WILD CARD
2-1
9
Street Jam
C J Lanerie





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
5
Maotai
R Mojica Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Willow Bend
I Ortiz Jr.








* EXACTA: 8-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 6/8/10 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX









RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
4
Boltoro
J Castellano


PLACE
3-1
9
Heckled
J Rosario


SHOW
5-2
2
Catmint
F Geroux


WILD CARD
15-1
5
English Treasure
A Beschizza





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
3
Zipadoo
F Prat


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
10
Southampton Dock
L Saez








* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX









RACE #6 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET



BEST BET: #12 DIVE BOMBER









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
12
Dive Bomber
F Geroux


PLACE
7-2
2
Dornoch
L Saez


SHOW
5-1
3
Lat Long
B J Hernandez Jr.


WILD CARD
8-1
4
Django
J R Leparoux





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
9
No Judgment
R Bejarano


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
5
Allied Victory
G Corrales








* EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/12 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX









RACE #7 $120,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-5
1
Nineeleventurbo
F Prat


PLACE
15-1
3
Kitten Mischief
F Geroux


SHOW
15-1
5
Stolen Base
J Rosario


WILD CARD
12-1
4
Sharar
J R Velazquez





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
6
Foreign Relations
T Gaffalione


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
12
Microphone
E Morales








* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX









RACE #8 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
11
Rarify
J Rosario


PLACE
5-1
9
Zeitlos
C A Torres


SHOW
9-2
2
Pumpkin Scone
G Corrales


WILD CARD
10-1
7
You Little Vixen
T Gaffalione





ALTERNATE 1
7-2
10
Accede
I Ortiz Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Little Blaze
J A Torres








* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/9/11 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX









RACE #9 $600,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
10-1
12
Papilio
J Castellano


PLACE
3-1
2
Elusive Princess
F Prat


SHOW
30-1
9
Heavenly Sunday
F Geroux


WILD CARD
2-1
4
Mawj
O Murphy





ALTERNATE 1
30-1
3
Safeen
C A Torres


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
5
Be Your Best
R Santana Jr.








* EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/9/12 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX









RACE #10 $120,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
1-1
1
First Mission
L Saez


PLACE
6-1
2
Keystone Field
I Ortiz Jr.


SHOW
20-1
12
Implementation
T Gaffalione


WILD CARD
6-1
10
Creative Minister
B J Hernandez Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Cooke Creek
J Rosario


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
13
Airtime
C A Torres








* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX, 12-10 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/12 BOX, 2/10/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 14
Oct. 13, 2023










Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $32,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET



BEST BET: #9 IN YOUR FACE









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
9
In Your Face
J J Hernandez


PLACE
4-1
4
Katerini
U Rispoli


SHOW
6-1
6
Dolly May
A Ayuso


WILD CARD
8-1
8
Mimsy
G Franco





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
14
Violet Storm
A Aguilar


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
12
Downburst
H I Berrios








* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX









RACE #2 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 NOTHING LIKE YOU









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
5
Nothing Like You
J J Hernandez


PLACE
5-2
2
Tianma
T J Pereira


SHOW
4-1
1
Dont Bring Crazy
R A Vazquez


WILD CARD
3-1
6
Flynns Chance
U Rispoli





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
3
Great Forty Eight
J Torrealba


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
4
Arctic Breeze
A Aguilar








* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX









RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-5
6
Legislator
U Rispoli


PLACE
4-1
2
Calm Sea
M Gutierrez


SHOW
8-1
7
St Ignacio
K J Desormeaux


WILD CARD
8-1
4
Hula Candy
H I Berrios





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
5
Smooth Salute
T J Pereira


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
3
My Partner Glen
T Baze








* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX









RACE #4 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-5
5
Super Chief
J J Hernandez


PLACE
3-1
1
Colt Fiction
R A Vazquez


SHOW
8-1
4
Sauls Call
K Frey


WILD CARD
5-1
6
El Diablo Rojo
G Franco





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
3
Stay in the Game
T J Pereira


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
2
Seattle Breakout
A Aguilar








* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX









RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET



BEST BET: #2 RESPECT THE CROWN









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
2
Respect the Crown
H I Berrios


PLACE
6-1
1
Not A Sinner
U Rispoli


SHOW
4-1
9
Cailin Dana
K J Desormeaux


WILD CARD
12-1
5
Feisty Mitole
A Aguilar





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
3
Ellie Moore
D A Herrera


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
6
Iscreamuscream
R A Vazquez








* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX









RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
9
Habeas
D A Herrera


PLACE
5-2
3
Chaos Reigns
U Rispoli


SHOW
10-1
10
King Zog
H I Berrios


WILD CARD
8-1
1
John Grey
H R Lopez





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
7
Take Action
J Torrealba


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
8
Pop Pops Ride
R A Vazquez








* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 1/3/10 BOX









RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 6:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
6
Rose Maddox
T J Pereira


PLACE
2-1
5
Rose Dawson
J J Hernandez


SHOW
10-1
1
Organic
H I Berrios


WILD CARD
3-1
3
Ultimate Hy
U Rispoli





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
7
Madiha
V Espinoza


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
2
Kleen Karma
D A Herrera








* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX









RACE #8 $12,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
4
Sheza Girly Girl
A Alsagoor


PLACE
5-2
3
A New Peace
A Ayuso


SHOW
6-1
2
Never Sway
M E Smith


WILD CARD
6-1
10
Awesome Taylor
T Baze





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Code Ribbon
R A Vazquez


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
5
Mo Connelly
C Figueroa








* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/10 BOX









RACE #9 $38,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
7
Big Coupe
D A Herrera


PLACE
6-1
4
Giovinazzo
T J Pereira


SHOW
6-1
5
Aurelian Man
G Franco


WILD CARD
3-1
2
Big Hat Willie
J J Hernandez





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
9
Caisson
A Ayuso


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
8
Low Expectations
M Gutierrez








* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX









RACE #10 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
10-1
8
Clouseau
K J Desormeaux


PLACE
5-2
9
Stamp My Passport
J J Hernandez


SHOW
5-1
4
Arrowthegreat
V Espinoza


WILD CARD
6-1
7
Smart Mo
J Bravo





ALTERNATE 1
7-2
1
Ghazaaly
H Berrios


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
3
Finneus
U Rispoli








* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX









RACE #11 $22,500 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
3-1
8
Tiz Plus
R A Vazquez


PLACE
5-2
3
Overdue
T J Pereira


SHOW
20-1
9
Perfectionistic
J Torrealba


WILD CARD
8-1
5
Cali Bay
A Aguilar





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
7
Grape Nuts Warrior
K J Desormeaux


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
6
Birth of Cool
H I Berrios








* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 14KEENELAND




Scott Hazelton
Tom Leach
Jeremy Plonk
Caton Bredar
Kim Nelson


1
6 Libertango
9 Vale
5 Creative Way
5 Creative Way
3 Canavall
1 Stand for Freedom
10 Blocked
8 Bucktown
1 Stand for Freedom
5 Creative Way
6 Libertango
3 Canavall
1 Stand for Freedom
5 Creative Way
3 Canavall


2
5 Jilly's West
7 Andy's Candy
12 Patriot Hills
5 Jilly's West
3 Cruisin and Boozin
8 Stormin Love
12 Patriot Hills
5 Jilly's West
1 Salming
5 Jilly's West
7 Andy's Candy
9 Higginsville
5 Jilly's West
12 Patriot Hills
3 Cruisin and Boozin


3
7 Edified
5 Stretch Ride
6 Lightline
6 Lightline
7 Edified
3 Seize the Grey
6 Lightline
5 Stretch Ride
3 Seize the Grey
6 Lightline
7 Edified
5 Stretch Ride
6 Lightline
3 Seize the Grey
5 Stretch Ride


4
8 It Takes Heart
6 Coexist
9 Street Jam
8 It Takes Heart
7 You Gotta Have Fun (IRE)
9 Street Jam
8 It Takes Heart
4 Charriere
10 Shell Shock
8 It Takes Heart
9 Street Jam
3 Promise of Hope
8 It Takes Heart
9 Street Jam
5 Maotai


5
8 King's Secret (GB)
9 Heckled
2 Catmint
8 King's Secret (GB)
3 Zipadoo
2 Catmint
2 Catmint
9 Heckled
8 King's Secret (GB)
9 Heckled
3 Zipadoo
2 Catmint
9 Heckled
2 Catmint
10 Southampton Dock


6
2 Dornoch
12 Dive Bomber
9 No Judgment
2 Dornoch
6 Greers Ferry
3 Lat Long
12 Dive Bomber
5 Allied Victory
2 Dornoch
2 Dornoch
12 Dive Bomber
6 Greers Ferry
2 Dornoch
12 Dive Bomber
10 Tennessee Lamb


7
1 Nineeleventurbo
8 Out of Deductions
4 Sharar
6 Foreign Relations
1 Nineeleventurbo
13 Seven Charms
3 Kitten Mischief
1 Nineeleventurbo
4 Sharar
1 Nineeleventurbo
4 Sharar
6 Foreign Relations
6 Foreign Relations
10 Quadra Island
1 Nineeleventurbo


8
7 You Little Vixen
10 Accede
2 Pumpkin Scone
10 Accede
9 Zeitlos
2 Pumpkin Scone
11 Rarify
10 Accede
2 Pumpkin Scone
10 Accede
2 Pumpkin Scone
3 Mucho Macho Girl
11 Rarify
2 Pumpkin Scone
7 You Little Vixen


9
4 Mawj (IRE)
7 Sounds of Heaven (GB)
9 Heavenly Sunday
7 Sounds of Heaven (GB)
2 Elusive Princess (FR)
4 Mawj (IRE)
11 Prerequisite
4 Mawj (IRE)
2 Elusive Princess (FR)
12 Papilio (IRE)
4 Mawj (IRE)
1 Mission of Joy
2 Elusive Princess (FR)
11 Prerequisite
3 Safeen


10
1 First Mission
8 Saqeel
10 Creative Minister
1 First Mission
10 Creative Minister
2 Keystone Field
1 First Mission
10 Creative Minister
8 Saqeel
1 First Mission
10 Creative Minister
12 Implementation
1 First Mission
8 Saqeel
10 Creative Minister

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton
Happy Saturday at Keeneland!!

1st Race
6-9-5

#6 Libertango takes a drop in class that will help. This horse is much better today and should be forward and be able to stick around longer with that job in class. #9 Vale has moved around to different barns via the claim box as of late and easily fits in amongst this group as a contender more so than what the morning line suggests at 20 to 1. #5 Creative Way is the lake least favorite in here but to me is not an absolute stand out as he cuts back in distance, and has never sprinted before, but he does come off of a nice one at Churchill Downs.


2nd Race
5-7-12

#5 Jilly’s West debuts in a maiden claiming race for trainer, Wesley Ward, who wins at a godly 38% of the time when he debuts horses in maiden claimers. The one to beat. #7 Andy’s Candy had one run so far in his Young career and it wasn't even six place finish after not breaking all that fast. Should be better today with the move down in class. #12 Patriot Hills also takes a big move down in class and change the surfaces to dirt and to me has more of a dirt Pedigree then turf which he debuted on.


3rd Race
7-5-6

#7 Edified is a well bred son of Tapit, 1/2 brother to G1 winner, Constellation. He walked out of the gate in his most recent race against much tougher, and should be sharper today dropping down in class from a grade 3 stakes at Saratoga. #5 Stretch Ride won his debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, coming from off the pace with a wide move. It was very strong. This is definitely a move up in competition but here's a horse. That's already a winner in one race. #6 Lightline what is a flashy debut winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis as well and I think there's a chance that he gets over bad, but you still have to respect the horse that won by 13 lengths, and his only start.


4th Race
8-6-9

#8 It Takes Heart was claim last time out of a huge win up at Saratoga, and has been put into a very competitive spot given what she has done thus far in her career. Clearly, the one to beat to me in this race. #6 Coexist was a flashy winner last time out in upset fashion but he's been in consistent good form as of late and I don't think that that race and that win can be disrespected here today.



5th Race
8-9-2

#8 King’s Secret add blinkers today, and also at the distance in her race with a Pedigree that screams for longer distances I like these changes enough to make my top selection. #9 Heckled is a well bred Godolphin Fiilly, who has knocked on the door several times as of late and easily could break through today. I think the fast ground today will help her as she likes to sit close to the pace. #2 Catmint it's 52 in the morning line and it's already run well at this distance, something that a lot of these horses cannot say that they have done, but she might before out of it, which cost her in the end.



6th Race
2-12-9

#2 Dornoch is a full brother to KY Derby winner, Mage, who has run too good races so far in his career. He was second against “Noted’ in stakes Company and his most recent star, and that horse was second in the G2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes here on opening weekend. Have to respect his two races in the companies kept in those races. #12 Dive Bomber it's Colorado ground for the first time in his career and has a Pedigree to do so. Just not in love with the outside draw that's giving the number two horse and not over him today. #9 No Judgment also stretches out to for the race after one sprint and should appreciate it based on his breeding.


7th Race
1-8-4

#1 Nineeleventurbo comes in from Southern California with extremely good form and easily could've run in yesterdays G2 Sycamore Stakes. But they opted for the easier route, and I like to move because he has a stand out, but only in this race, but probably the most likely winner of the day. #8 Out of Deductions is a well bred horse will be testing class but he will be better 30 to 1 in the morning. Lyne suggests he gets jockey Luis Saez in the saddle. #4 Sharar should be able to close today as longer distance lay back and make one run with one of the best ever do it in the saddle, John Velazquez.



8th Race
7-10-2

#7 You Little Vixen write a very fast race on debut in Iowa and one by 7 1/2 lengths. Easily can handle this bunch here today don't overlook her because of where she's coming from. #10 Accede gets back on dirt and cuts back in distance, and her two sprint races have been two of her best races so far. #2 Pumpkin Scone could easily make the lead in this race, or at least make the leading hold on for a piece of it in the end.


9th Race
4-7-9

#4 Mawj has missed a lot of time this year and comes into this race having not run in over five months. She won the G1 1000 Guineas, one of the premiere races for three year old fillies in England. This race is being used as a steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup, and if she is at her best, she will be very tough today for Godolphin. #7 Sounds of Heaven has held very good company in her career as she makes her US debut. If she handles the fast ground, which I think you have to expect she will otherwise she will not be here. She will run a big race. #9 Heavenly Sunday has speed to carry this field around there and try to blitz them at a price. She's trained by Brad Cox who doesn't just show up in grade one races to simply have a runner.


10th Race
1-8-10

#1 First Mission won the G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes in the spring here at Keeneland. But that's the last time we saw him run. If he's anywhere near what we have seen from him in his career, he will be awfully tough and be primed for a big stake race in his next start and obviously a big 2024. #8 Saqeel beat a group of younger horses in his most recent start at Churchill Downs. He's a seasoned five-year-old that absolutely can handle this group and if you're looking for a very live price play, this is your guy in race number 10 to close out the card. #10 Creative Minister has made a lot of money in his career with only two wins I'm asking over a half $1 million in earnings. He'll try to come running out them late but it may be tough to do but if you're playing wagers that include horses finishing second third fourth or fifth, this is a horse you have to include.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy PlonkJeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 14, 2023

What to Watch for Today: An absolutely elite cast of 3-year-old fillies will battle in the Grade 1 $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup in Race 9. English 1000 Guineas winner Mawj brings impeccable credentials, along with French 1000 Guineas runner-up Lindy and Group 1 Coronation third-place finisher Sounds of Heaven. They’ll meet up with French export Elusive Princess, already a winner stateside of the Saratoga Oaks Invitational.

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 5,7,9 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: A 40% chance of morning showers are in the forecast with temperatures in the upper 60s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!


1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint the about 7-furlong distance to open the early pick five. Early speed has been potent in the 19 such Fall Meet N2L 7F claimers we’ve had – 15 winners were within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Favorites are just 4-for-19 and we’ve had as many winners at 11-1 or more (4) than chalks. Blocked went wire-to-wire in winning an Indy MSW, arguably the best victory on paper in this field. Bucktown (MSW, Tampa) and Libertango (MSW, Turfway) could also be in that quality discussion, but neither has the early speed of Blocked.



2nd Race
Two-year-old maiden claimers match up at 6 furlongs for the start of the early pick four. Lean heavily toward experienced runners here, who have won 39 of 49 such MCL juvenile dashes in past Fall Meets on dirt. Favorites underperform slightly around 30% with an average winner a very juicy 7.2-to-1 odds. Churchill preppers have 20 of the wins (no other circuit more than 5). This field includes The Rush Is On, Andy’s Candy and Stormin Love via CD. Patriot Hills doesn’t check a lot of trends boxes, but could improve on the surface change, drop in class and bullet workout for high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro at a square price (6-1 ML).



3rd Race
First-level (N1X) allowance 2-year-olds stretch out to 1-1/16 miles on the dirt. The most famous alumni of these very races was Gun Runner in the 2015 Fall Meet. Average winners in these races are just 7-2 odds. Churchill preppers have 7 wins, leading Kentucky Downs with 4. The CD set includes 5 of the 7 entrants. Trainer Brad Cox has 5 Fall Meet 2YO ALW wins on dirt (2 at this distance), most of any trainer and sends out Lightline, a dominant Indy winner in his debut. Cox’s horses are exceptional at Kee in 1-1/16 miles dirt races over the years and Lightline is the horse to beat, regardless of his last start locale.



4th Race
Dual-condition claimers square off at 6-1/2 furlongs. We have a few 3-year-olds who already cleared the non-winners of 3 lifetime condition be eligible here that are interesting, It Takes Heart and Coexist. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more … though 15-1 Navy Soul popped here Sunday in a similar spot, while odds-on favorite Sicilian Grandma scored as chalk in Wednesday’s opener. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others and included Sunday’s winner from Indy. The CD crew here is Roc’s Princess, Promise of Hope, Coexist and Street Jam – but only Coexist interests on paper to this eye. I’ll lean to It Takes Heart for high-percentage claiming trainer Robert Falcone via NY.



5th Race
The Keeneland Turf Pick Three and the pick six launch with a maiden special weight test at 1-1/8 miles on grass. Coming into the week, we’ve only had 9 prior Fall Meet elder MSWs on turf at this 9F trip, 6 of them won by horses who last raced at 9F or longer. First-time starters have been blanked. The average winner has been a healthy 7-1 odds. The average winner in these races is just over 2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, showing more propensity for early position than all other classes of races at Keeneland for this trip/surface, where the average winner is more than 3 lengths off the front at that juncture. Kentucky Downs and NYRA share about one-quarter each of the Fall Meet MSW turf winners as prep locales and the best places to look – but there are 7 such KD options in the main body of this field. Catmint intrigues off a CD runner-up at this distance as a daughter of Kitten’s Joy and Antonoe, the dam winner of the Just A Game and third in the Diana. Heckled is a half-sister to $1.1 million earner Pixelate.



6th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weight performers stretch their legs over 1-1/16 miles on the main track in the first leg of the late pick five. These historically are very formful races when 2YOs route on the dirt in MSWs. Favorites have won 22 of 48 offered with an average winner just 7-2 odds. Only 3 first-time starters have won, so demand some experience. Churchill preppers have a big 23-9 edge over NYRA. Seven here exit CD races. Only 9 of these 48 have been won by horses making a surface change like several of these attempt, so I’ll lean to the horses exiting dirt preps. Sires Liam’s Map (Lat Long) and Omaha Beach (Allied Victory, Dive Bomber) already have a pair of winners on the dirt at the young ’23 Fall Meet.



7th Race
This turf marathon allowance at 1-1/2 miles serves as second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three and kicks off the late pick four. We’ve had 35 of these in our database in Fall Meets and no winner has been over 9-1 odds (average just 7-2 odds). Deep closers have ruled with an average winner 5-3/4 lengths back after the first half-mile. Kentucky Downs and NYRA preppers each have 10 wins. Note 27 of 35 winners prepped at 1-1/8 miles or longer last out. Kitten Mischief is a son of Kitten’s Point, who won the 12 furlong Dowager over this course to end her career. Trainer Mike Maker’s 5 such wins are tied (with Graham Motion) for most and he’ll saddle Stolen Base.



8th Race
Entry-level (N1X) allowance sprinters clash at 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. Horses who added distance since their last start have won two-thirds of the Fall Meet ALW sprints at this trip. Only 2 of 32 winners rallied from more than 3 lengths back after the first half-mile to win, so lean speed. Rarify comes off a year layoff as the lone local dirt winner in the lineup, winning easily in maiden company here for Wesley Ward. He’s fast and adds distance, fitting the profile similar to Pumpkin Scone, Mucho Macho Girl and You Little Vixen.



9th Race
The Grade 1 $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is the Saturday feature race and final leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. In the last 17 years of our online database, favorites are 4-17 in the QE2, but note 11 of the last 12 winners were 5-1 or less. This has been a great betting race in that respect. Nine of the last 17 winners came via the NYRA circuit (Sar/Bel/Aqu). The last 9 winners have been an average of just three-quarters of a length off the lead after the opening half-mile and no winner closed more than 3 lengths. The trends point to a NY prepper with some early pace effectiveness, which Prerequisite and Heavenly Sunday would fit. Those runners contend but must face exceptional European raiders like Mawj and the second-time French raider (via NY, a plus) Elusive Princess.



10th Race
The curtain falls with a second-level (N2X) allowance dirt route at 1-1/16 miles. Spring Meet Lexington Stakes winner First Mission makes a much anticipated return to action for Brad Cox. His victory here came over the eventual Pacific Classic winner (Arabian Lion) and Travers runner-up (Disarm). Cox trainees win more than 30% at 1-1/16 miles on the Kee dirt. Now get this: those Cox trainees are 11: 7-0-1 when drawing the rail at this trip, like First Mission has Saturday. This classy field includes 2022 Preakness third-place finisher Creative Minister, who broke his maiden over this track and distance during the 2022 Spring Meet.

[ConleyPicks]

Ed DeRosa
1st Race
This is one of the most competitive races I've ever handicapped, as I truly believe six of the ten entrants have good chances of winning, and depending on how the betting goes, good chances of being worth a wager. #6 Libertango returns to dirt for trainer Wayne Catalano and looks to have a nice run behind the speed.

PICKS: 6-8-7-4

2nd Race
Nothing I've seen from those who have run make me think they're worth taking over any of the newcomers here. We're going to trust the Horse Racing Nation first-timer Power Ratings report to point us in the right direction, and that leads us to #5 Jilly's West for trainer Wesley Ward, who is having a good meet and needs no introduction with two-year-olds at Keeneland. #3 Cruisin and Boozin has been locally prepared by trainer Doug O'Neill's team and must be used given he shares a 5-star rating with our top pick.

PICKS: 5-3-11-10-1

3rd Race
We're 5-3 in the second, and we're 5-3 in the third, but that's not really the story here considering we're trying to beat a horse who's 4-to-5 on the morning line. #6 Lightline certainly looked great on debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but winning at a mile out of the box does not require the brilliance that some of these have already shown. #5 Stretch Ride was very professional on debut, getting a good number with an off-the-pace trip. #3 has Seize the Grey hasn't been able to get up against stakes company but the numbers fit with any of these, and the class relief while stretching out should help this D. Wayne Lukas trainee improve.

PICKS: 5-3-2-7 against 6

4th Race
I'm choosing to believe what we saw last time from #8 It Takes Heart, who got a big number in that win in which he was also claimed. The barn changed, but the jockey didn't, as Luis Saez retains the mount; I always see that as a positive sign. #5 Maotai comes in off a long layoff but her best fits with these. Of course, getting her best nearly 8 months since her last race is no guarantee, but the price is right. I'm not as against #9 Street Jam as I am other favorites on the card, but 2-to-1 is a little light in my estimation since if It Takes Heart runs remotely close to his her last she's a winner.

PICKS: 8-5-9

5th Race
Not a lot of love for #2 Catmint here, the 5-to-2 morning line choice who is just only as good as the rest of these at best. No thank you.
#4 Boltoro has had a lot of chances, but she makes it interesting with 5 seconds from 10 lifetime starts. Don't love the futility in the win column, but 8-to-1 would be a fair price. #9 Heckled only has two 9-furlong races, and they were her two best. Let's hope #3 Zipadoo isn't named for my performance today. I figure she'll get the jump on our top pick.

PICKS: 4-9-3 against 2

6th Race
#4 Django took a big step forward last out, making the lead late before getting collared and finishing second while earning one of the best numbers in the field. She had gate issues in her first two career starts, and while that was improved last out, it still wasn't a great start. At 8-to-1 morning line I'll gamble on her ability to put it all together today. #3 Lat Long is the uncoupled stablemate of our top pick, and I like the stretch out here. #2 Dornoch and #12 Dive Bomber are both short prices on the morning line with a penchant for early zip. I'll play the race for one of the McPeeks to run them down.

PICKS: 4-3-2-12

7th Race
#1 Nineeleventurbo is certainly the one to beat here, but 6-to-5 in a full field when he's never gone this far and his speed ratings are only as good as some of these? No thanks. I may be a profligate when it comes to my funds, but not here.
#4 Sharar has yet to go this far, but he stretched out last out and improved despite a wide journey. #7 O P Firecracker is a huge price on the morning line (30-to-1), and I just can't ignore the Frank Angst jockey angle here since Cristian Torres was aboard for the serviceable turf bow and returns here.

PICKS: 4-7-2-3 against 1


8th Race
Finally one of the more straightforward races on the day (and really a straightforward double given my opinion race 9), as #10 Accede returns to dirt second off the layoff and has some good races to run back to sprinting. #9 Zeitlos is also making that turf-to-dirt move.

PICKS: 10-9-11-2

9th Race
It's the feature and last Grade 1 race in Kentucky until Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill Downs. And what a race this is to send Grade 1 races to Santa Anita Park, as 13 entered with 12 able to line up for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.
I have an extremely strong lean toward #4 Mawj, who is the only filly to defeat Tahyira in her illustrious three-time-Group-1-winning career. A couple minor negatives for Mawj are the layoff, and that she's never gone 9 furlongs, which is why I'll be a stickler for my fair odds off that 2-to-1 morning line.
It's important to note that #13 Freydis the Red is an also eligible. If she scratches then Mawj's fair odds go to 3-to-2. If Freydis stays in, then I think she's playable with Mawj in the gimmicks.

PICKS: 4-13-7-8

10th Race
The nightcap could send us out with a bang as we're once again opposing a heavy favorite (from the barn of Brad Cox again no less). Or maybe it'll bang us. Either way, I can't take this short of a price on #1 First Mission off a six-month layoff--even if he was going to be second choice to Kentucky Derby winner Mage in the Preakness Stakes before scratching the day before the race.
#8 Saqeel is going be winging it on the front end, and we saw trainer Diodoro work that to his advantage int he Friday nightcap, and it certainly helps that Saqeel is 5-for-15 at this distance. #2 Keystone Field returns to his conditions and Irad Ortiz Jr. coming along for the ride is interesting. If the race completely falls apart then #10 Creative Minister will benefit most.

PICKS: 8-2-10 against 1

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach
There's a strong European flavor to this year's QEII Challenge Cup and that adds some mystery to a typically tough handicapping challenge in that race. For these three-year old fillies, it's sometimes more about projecting improvement than analyzing current form. Good luck!

1st Race
5-Creative Way was claimed last time by a barn that hits at a 21 percent rate with newcomers to the barn and this gelding comes off an impressive win that produced a career-best speed figure. 3-Canavall has been improved since returning from a break and the win last time was his best yet, albeit against lesser foes. 1-Stand for Freedom drops in class and this barn's runners have been firing but this gelding's come from behind style may comprimise his chances.


2nd Race
5-Jilly's West gets the nod here as a Wesley Ward-trained first-timer with some good local works. Both the trainer and jock are off to good starts at the meet. 3-Cruisin and Boozin has also worked well here for a barn that certainly win with a firster. 8-Stormin Love hasn't shown much yet but the move into maiden-claiming company could produce an improved performance. 7-Andy's Candy makes a similar drop in class and had a slow start in his debut.


3rd Race
6-Lightline was dazzling in his debut win and has followed it with good workouts. The only question mark is that he's facing winners for the first time so if he loses, it will likely to be a more experienced foe like 7-Edified or 3-Seize the Grey. The former competed in two graded stakes races in the last two starts and the latter was fourth in a grade 3 last time out and he's been producing consistent numbers through the last three starts.


4th Race
8-It Takes Heart made a dramatic move up in form last time out at Saratoga, romping by almost ten lengths while producing a career-best Beyer figure. And he was claimed out of that race by an outfit that wins at a high rate when running a horse first time off the claim. 7-You Gotta Have Fun makes her second start for the Maker barn. If you write off her first out for Maker to a disdain for turf, this one figures to have a shot on the class drop. 9-Streeet Jam has been improved since a short break but her late-running style may hurt her chances.


5th Race
8-King's Secret is a 10-1 shot with a big chance to get the win here. He had some trouble in his last outing at Kentucky Downs but the previous race's 74 Beyer figure would put her right in the mix in this spot and this barn does well when adding blinkers. 3-Zipadoo ran her best race in the first start of the year last month and the switch to Prat in the saddle is noteworthy. 2-Catmint ran well last time out at this nine-furlong distance. 6-Blessing the Flag ran a race two starts back that would make her competitive and then she had a wide trip last time out at Kentucky Downs, limiting her chances of winning. 9-Heckled is worth a look off consistent recent form.


6th Race
2-Dornoch ran a good second as the favorite in a stakes race last time out and the added distance in this spot should enhance her chances. 6-Greers Ferry has run three times but only once did he gets what is likely his best matchup--going long on the dirt--and he produced a solid effort. 3-Lat Long was a rally third in his debut and this barn's runners often improve with more distance. 4-Django ran a much-improved race last out when he got to run around two turns. 12-Dive Bomber ran well in his second outing but this is a horrible post for this distance.


7th Race
6-Foreign Relations gets to run against softer competition than he's seen in recent starts and this gelding ran very well in his only start on this turf course (although a foul cost him the win). 1-Nineeleventurbo has been consistent in his five starts this year with superior speed figures but he hasn't played as tough of a schedule as the top pick. 13-Seven Charms has run well in two races against the '1' horse. 2-Altazor ran a much-improved race last time for a cagey barn that puts its runners in good spots.


8th Race
The turf experiment didn't go well last time for 10-Accede but she was beaten by grade 1-level stakes winners in the previous three spots. The softer company here makes her the top pick. 9-Zeitlos has been consistent and her early speed enchances her chances of beating the '10' horse. 2-Pumpkin Scone romped against maidens in her third start. 11-Rarify comes off a layoff but ran well on this track last fall. I could see any of these four horses getting to the winner's circle.


9th Race
In the grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, there's a strong European flavor and there's an 8-1 shot that merits a long look. 7-Sounds of Heaven was a good third in a group 1 race at the Royal Ascot meet and her pedigree suggests she'll relish getting more distance. Also, the trainer has said her charge prefers the firmer ground she'll get in this spot and the soft turf last time is why you can forgive that subpar run. 2-Elusive Princess was smashing in her US debut at Saratoga and was second in a group 1 overseas. 4-Mawj has top-class form, too, but the distance is a question mark. 8-Elouda Queen has won two of her last three and that last outing was in group 3 company.


10th Race
1-First Mission was a good-looking winner of the Lexington Stakes here back in April and was being pointed for the Preakness off that effort. If he's ready off the layoff, he wins. If he loses, I think 10-Creative Minister will pull the upset as he's more battle-tested and he loves the Keeneland surface. 2-Keystone Field has seven wins and a lot of graded stakes experience.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr
Saturday October 14, 2023
Race 7 at Keeneland
Post Time 4:12 p.m. eastern time
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#3 Kitten Mischief – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1
#1 Nineeleventurbo – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 1
#6 Foreign Relations – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 1
Kitten Mischief is one of only two horses in this full field who has won at this mile and one-half turf trip and that could be a significant factor. He earned that win at the one lower non-winners of one other than maiden level in January with a strong off-the-pace effort after racing about two lengths behind the early leader. Nearly four months later he ran in a race identical to this one, here at Keeneland, and was well-regarded at 7 to 2, finishing fourth of nine. He had also run well over the Keeneland turf last fall when third of nine. After the race in April at Keeneland, he moved to dirt for a stakes race at this distance and was fourth again. Then he cut back to nine furlongs for his most recent race and didn’t do much, ending up fifth of eight. With this race being a return to the distance and surface of his win, and with his fourth place effort at this class level in the spring at Keeneland also a decent effort, plus with a jockey change to Florent Geroux for trainer Thomas, who wins at a very high 25% rate in nearly every type of race this year, Kitten Mischief gets slight preference as he may go to post at high odds.
Nineeleventurbo is likely to be the public favorite because his most recent race was against tougher horses in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, where he led in the stretch and finished second of 11. That was at the distance of one mile and three-eighths, slightly horses than this mile and one-half distance. He won at the mile and three-eighths distance prior to that, for his fourth straight win, and he missed by a neck in his only previous race at Keeneland (in the spring of 2021). Although he has run against tougher, and is in top form, his overall record of 4-6-3 isn’t so strong as to warrant betting him to win at low odds but he is certainly capable of winning and should be considered for wagers like the exacta as he could add to his consistent record of finishing first, or second.
Foreign Relations is also entered in Friday’s Sycamore Stakes as of this writing, but I believe his trainer will opt for this easier spot. He won easily here in the spring at this distance at the one lower allowance level, but was disqualified and placed last. He proved that win was no fluke by winning the Louisville Stakes the following month at the distance, at Churchill Downs, but is winless in three races since then. The last two of those three were in significantly higher class levels as both were graded stakes, so the change in class and return to a track he’s won over bode well for a return to top form good enough to win.

[ConleyPicks]

Kim NelsonSaturdays card features a very competitive Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup presented by Dixiana. A full field of twelve 3 year old fillies will go to post.

1st Race
#1 Stand for Freedom drops to a new low in the claiming ranks and the Wilkes barn has been hot so far this meet. #5 Creative Way is first off the claim for a barn that does very well with this type. He is fresh off the maiden win. #3 Canavall is also fresh off the maiden win and can boast the best last Beyer Speed figure. Top Picks #1, #5 and #3


2nd Race
#1 Jilly's West is a firster for the Ward barn. Barn is quite successful with debut runners especially 2 year olds. She also has the home court advantage. #12 Patriot Hills showed little in his first try but the well bred colt is due to improve here. #3 Cruisin and Boozin has been working well over the local going and expect a big effort. Top Picks #1, #12 and #3


3rd Race
#6 Lightline comes over as the 4-5 early favorite and deservedly so off his debut effort. A runaway winner at first asking for the formidable Brad Cox barn. #3 Seize the Grey has faced tough stakes company in his last 2 races and has been very competitive. Sharp works for the Coach and the softer company should suit him. #5 Stretch Ride is another coming off a maiden win at first asking. Top Picks #6, #3 and #5


4th Race
#8 It Takes Heart is fresh off the claim and comes over with a barn that gets 30% winners with this type. She has early foot and could take this field gate to wire. #9 Street Jam just missed in her last start and recent form suggest this company will suit her. #5 Maotai is making her first off the layoff. Past form is strong enough to expect her to land a share. Top Picks #8, #9 and #5


5th Race
#9 Heckled has landed 2nd place finishes in her last 4 starts. She stretches back out off her last and she looks capable of finding the wire first with these. #2 Catmint tried this distance on the grass last time out and landed a 2nd. That was only her 2nd career start and she should be quite competitive here. #10 Southampton Dock is actually backing up in distance and expect a strong kick down the lane from her. Top Picks #9, #2 and #10


6th Race
#2 Dornoch is an improving sort making his 3rd career start. He exits tough stakes company and expect him to show up sharp here. #12 Dive Bomber has posted strong Beyer numbers in both his career starts and if he can overcome the outside post should be tough. #10 Tennessee Lamb was slow out of the gates last time but look for improvement here and could boost exotics. Top Picks #2, #12 and #10


7th Race
#6 Foreign Relations won the Grade 3 Louisville at this distance during the spring meet at Churchill. He didn't take well to Kentucky Downs last time out but can overlook that one and expect a big effort here. #10 Quadra Island comes in off a win going the route of ground on the grass. That was his first off the layoff and like the Kitten's Joy gelding to make a big impact here. #1 Nineeleventurbo is a consistent sort going routes on the grass. He comes over as the early 6-5 favorite. Top Picks #6, #10 and #1


8th Race
#11 Rarify has been on a long vacation but barn is so good off the layoff and she gets Lasix for the first time this start. She broke her maiden over the Keeneland course and should be quick enough to overcome the outside post. #2 Pumpkin Scone blew away a field of maidens in her last start. She should be sharp again here. #7 You Little Vixen is another coming off an impressive maiden win. She lands Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. Top Picks #11, #2 and #7


9th Race
#2 Elusive Princess exits a Grade 3 win which was her first start on this side of the pond. She is an impressive sort that seldom misses a check and she looks well prepared for this task. #11 Prerequisite is 2 for 2 at this distance including a Grade 2 win. Chad Brown teams up with Irad Ortiz, Jr and can't leave this filly out. #4 Mawj brings a 3 race win streak including a Grade 1 win. She is the early favorite at 2-1. Top Picks #2, #11 and #4


10th Race
#1 First Mission won the Grade 3 Lexington in his last start and has taken the summer off. If he comes back as strong he will be very tough to beat. #8 Saqeel has only missed one check this year in 8 starts. His Beyer numbers are consistent and he has the early foot to gain good early position. #10 Creative Minister can bring a late kick that could make the rush to the wire very exciting. Top Picks #1, #8 and #10

[ConleyPicks]

Laurel Park Picks by the Experts from Laurel
maryland millions Day

Tim Tullock Kali Francois
R1: 4-11-3 3-8-1
R2: 3-6-13 3-9-5
R3: 4-3-6 3-4-6
R4: 9-14-6 6-10-9
R5: 8-9-7 6-9-7
R6: 6-11-9 11-6-5
R7: 4-7-5 7-4-5
R8: 5-9-3 5-3-7
R9: 6-12-11 6-12-4
R10: 5-10-2 10-5-8
R11: 6-4-2 6-2-1
R12: 9-7-5 3-4-9

Tim's Best Bet: R1 #4 Chelichna
Tim's Price Play: R10 #5 Malibu Beauty

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKSKeeneland - Race #6


PICKS
NOTES


#7 Coppola
I honestly think you can make a case for most of these relative to their price in a really fun race, and this has held good form while proving competitive with some of the players he'll meet today. Draws well for a perfect first-jump trip if he's good enough.


#6 Olympic Runner
I really liked his last finishing effort on a course that wasn't super kind to those types this season, and he is probably going to find a similar closing trip while turning back a bit. He scored at this sharper trip two starts back, and I don't think he's out of the question here with something similar.


#2 Live in the Dream
He'll make his North American debut off an upset win at 28/1, and he probably has enough pace to get in the mix early on if he can avoid missing what is sometimes a troublesome American start at a short trip that doesn't leave a lot of room for error.


Race Summary
Coppola is one of many with a claim on this, and I'm hoping he'll be able to punch home from a dreamy spot at a midrange price. Think there are a few who are going to be looking to land that exact same trip, and this is a spot in which I really wouldn't argue with anyone.


Keeneland - Race #9


PICKS
NOTES


#7 Just Steel
Giving him a chance to bounce back a bit here, as he might find a pressing spot right up near the top with a bit more modest tempo while trying two turns. Decent price with a small shot today.


#9 Locked
He finished behind the top choice in his debut run before graduating by better than seven lengths when stretching out for the first time, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him with some more upside at this point. Can be tough.


#5 West Saratoga
He's aiming for his third straight today, and he has been in the mix with a couple of the interesting players lined up today. Worth a look if the price is right.


Race Summary
Just Steel has a little appeal for me in here, as he's fast enough to be right up on the splits, and I'm hoping a few of these will want to see if they can settle a bit while going long.


Keeneland - Race #11


PICKS
NOTES


#5 Miyagi
Get a look at him on the track and tote, but he's been drilling locally ahead of this and snags Gaffalione for the first trip to post. Could see it.


#7 Booth
He feels like the type that Asmussen might have ready to roll in a spot like this, as this team has done some serious work with similar horses in the past here. Obvious chance on paper.


#1 Nash
He's bred to be a good one and might be solid enough to win going short at first asking, but I'm more interested to see what this guy's bringing going a mile or so in his next start.


Race Summary
Think there are a few potentially interesting players out on the also-eligible list, so make sure to take another spin through after scratches. Miyagi has the most appeal on paper for me in here, and I like that Gaffalione signs on at first asking for a team that can get the right ones ready.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKSLaurel Park - Race #2


PICKS
NOTES


#3 SHINY SLAM (4-1)
Rallied widest in lane to win in second try off Gonzalez claim after pace fell apart.


#5 EVERLY’S GIRL (1-1)
Proven allowance form against Cal breds, first start off cross-country journey.


#1 HAPPY CLOUDS (7-2)
First or second in 9 of 10 starts this year, all at 2-1 odds or less.


Race Summary
SHINY SLAM benefitted from an ideal set-up but raced 7-wide in the stretch to prevail. She surged late to defeat the second favorite, earning the top speed figure of her career. She has her work cut out to repeat, but the price should be right for a win and place wager.


Laurel Park - Race #3


PICKS
NOTES


#7 LA FANTASMA (7-2)
Tries to follow in turf footsteps of her dam in debut route attempt.


#3 WARIDI CANDI (10-1)
Took lead while in-hand on turn, out-gamed by the fave in improved try.


#1 CHICKEN PARM (9-2)
Russell firster has bloodlines to run long; sire was G-I winner of $2.9 million.


Race Summary
LA FANTASMA shows a three-month break in her workout tab, but she is in capable hands to win at first asking and her dam, Special Event, was multiple graded stakes-placed on turf. Play a 7-ALL exacta.


Laurel Park - Race #8


PICKS
NOTES


#3 CALL ANOTHER PLAY (4-1)
Ability showed on turf and dirt, expect another big effort in third start.


#6 CAP CLASSIQUE (5-2)
Stalked 3- and 4-wide, wore down 2-1 first-time starter to prevail.


#4 BEACHFRONT BREEZE (3-1)
Good speed, shorter distance, fourth track in as many starts.


Race Summary
CALL ANOTHER PLAY finished second in her debut to Determined Driver, who came back to finish second in a $75,000 stakes race at Timonium. She switched to the main track and drew away in the stretch despite lugging in when clear. Bet to win and place.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: San Jose St -7 over New Mexico

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4UEarly Saturday Free Selection: Michigan State Spartans/Rutgers Scarlet Knights under 39 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 SportsEarly Saturday's Free Play: California Golden Bears + 11

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Early Saturday FootballSelection From Lee
Rutgers -4.5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play
Duke -3' Saturday CFB

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Kenny TowersYour Free Pick for Saturday - Take Wake Forest +1.5


Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 8-7

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, October 14, 2023

CFB
185. UNLV -8 (2 PT / 5 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2023
CFB
158. S.Florida -2.5 (12:30 PT / 3:30 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the Georgia St Panthers -1 over Marshall

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday :Take AUBURN +11 over LSU

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: KANSAS ST +1.5 over Texas Tech

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for Saturday
Texas Rangers (Game One ALCS)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SATURDAY!
CFB Washington St/Arizona OVER the total of 57.5 pts!

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: OREGON ST -3.5 over UCLA

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic SportsEarly Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Troy Trojans - 6

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Sharp BettorSharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2023
FREE
CFB
141. Florida +2 (12:30 PT / 3:30 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye SportsEarly Saturday's Free Pick: Florida Atlantic Owls + 2 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Early Saturday: Penn State Nittany Lions - 41 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
San Jose State

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #144 Rutgers Scarlet Knights-4.5 over Michigan State Spartans (12p.m., Saturday, October 9 BTN) No bet against Michigan State is a bad bet. The Spartans have not been the same team since the dismissal of Mel Tucker, evident by the fact that they lost 3 straight games, all by double digits. Rutgers cannot compete in the upper echelon for the Big 10, but their style is conducive to beating the bad teams in the league. The Scarlet Knights have beaten all the teams on their schedule besides Michigan and Wisconsin and all those 4 wins have come by least 17 points. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card, featuring our College Football Game of the Year. Get in on all the action now with a one week football package and let 52 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Michigan State +4.5 1.1% Free Play

The Spartans are off a bye, and despite all the noise surrounding this team and their head coach they just out gained Maryland and Iowa despite losing. I see value in this team, and Rutgers is getting a bit too much credit. I understand they have done some nice things, but at the end of the day they are still a one dimensional offense, and not a very good one at that ranking 80th in yards per play, 83rd in success rate, and for as well as this defense has played they rank 120th in rushing success rate defense with garbage time taken out. This game shoudl be a battle, and one that the Sparty could win if they DON'T lost the turnover battle.

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Play: Indiana +33.5

You remember Rod Carey, the former head coach at Northern Illinois and Temple? He's the new offensive coordinator at Indiana replacing Walt Bell, who was let go last week during the Hooisers' bye week.

Carey has a unique clause in his contract. He will earn a $50,000 bonus if Indiana is able to average 24 points a game. Carey isn't rushing off to the bank just yet, though, because his first game as offensive coordinator comes against Michigan. The Wolverines are the stingiest defensive team in the nation giving up a meager 6.7 points.

But I'm not taking this boatload of points with Indiana because of its offense, even though Carey probably put in a few new wrinkles during the bye last week, but because the Hooisers' defense can prevent a massacre.

That's hard to write after Indiana lost, 44-17, to Maryland in its last game. It was Indiana's worst game of the season. It's one of many reasons why Michigan is in a prime letdown spot. The Wolverines are returning home having slaughtered Nebraska, 45-7, and Minnesota, 52-10, on the road the past two weeks. They are fat and happy. The Wolverines also are at Michigan State next week. That long-time in-state rivalry matchup is a game that will motivate them, not this one.

Indiana is 2-3 with two of its losses occurring to third-ranked Ohio State, 23-3, and to 14th-rated Louisville, 21-14. It's proof the Hooisers can step up defensively against elite competition.

[ConleyPicks]

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Free Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies host the Ohio Bobcats in DeKalb on Saturday afternoon.

Northern Illinois put up 55 points and ran for 380 yards on Akron last week. I think that was far more about Akron than Northern Illinois. The Huskies only scored 11 points on Southern Illinois. They scored 11 points on Nebraska. They could only score 14 points against Tulsa too.

Ohio looks like the best defense in the MAC. The Bobcats are 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 12th in success rate allowed.

Ohio is playing very slowly with the 122nd rated tempo in the country. The Bobcats are just 107th in yards per play. Northern Illinois is 38th in yards per play allowed this year.

The weather in DeKalb calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. That kind of wind is a clear plus for the under. The game should be played in a more conservative way.

Take the under here.

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Iowa/Wisconsin UNDER 35

Playing conditions are expected to be terrible at Wisconsin with an 85% chance of rain and 28 MPH crosswinds Saturday afternoon. This is a very low total for a college football game, but it's not low enough given the conditions, these two elite defenses and Iowa's putrid offense.

Kirk Ferentz has worked wonders getting this Iowa team to 5-1 in spite of an offense that is averaging more punt yards this season than total yards. Iowa is only averaging 250 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play on offense this season. Backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious taking over for an injured Cade McNamara.

Hill has completed 21-of-56 (37.5%) passes while averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Hawkeyes are without their top target in TE Lachey and have other significant injuries at WR and RB. Their offensive line is getting no push and is one of the worst offensive lines of the Ferentz era.

Iowa has gotten to 5-1 thanks to great defense and special teams. The Hawkeyes have one of the best punters in the nation who is an absolute weapon. They have a defense that allows 16.3 points per game, 324 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 12.6 points per game below their season averages.

Wisconsin has yet another elite defense this season allowing just 18.4 points per game, holding opponents to nearly 13 points per game below their season averages. They only allow 108 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry as well. They do have an improved offense this season, but it hasn't been as good as offseason expectations as they are only averaging 40 yards per game more than their opponents allow on average despite an easy schedule of opposing defenses.

Iowa is 12-4 UNDER in its last 16 games with a total of 42 or less. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games following a home game. Iowa and Wisconsin haven't combined for more than 35 points in any of their last three meetings, and given the weather conditions they won't combine for more than 35 in this one, either. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Iowa/Wisconsin Over 34.5 -105

[ConleyPicks]

Rob Vinciletti

Saturday card has the 25-1 PAC 12 Game of the Year headlining along with a TIER 1 in the USC Notre Dame game and 3 more best bets. There is also our Early Season NHL System plays off to a 3-1 start. BIG 10 Comp play below.

The Big 10 Comp play is on Iowa plus the 9 to 10 points at 4 eastern. The Hawkeyes fit a nice system here that plays on road dogs with a total that is less than 35. These teams have covered 12 of 14 times. Iowa is 5-1 with the lone loss at Penn St. They have a solid defense that has allowed 16 or less in 5 of 6 games. Wisky has a solid defense as well and neither team has a big time offense. Iowa has covered 3 of 4 in the series. The Badgers have failed to cover the last 6 after allowing less than 14 points. Look for Iowa to hang around here today and get the Cover. On Saturday a loaded card is up with the 25-1 PAC 12 Game of the Year and the Executive Level Tier 1 in the USC vs Notre Dame game and 3 more top plays including a big total and our Exclusive NHL Early season system plays. Jump on now and put the power of this cutting edge data on your side. For the Comp plays tale go with Iowa Plus the 9 points. Rob V-

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on UNLV -9

The Key: UNLV is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this year and one of the most improved teams in college football under head coach Barry Odom. The market hasn't caught up to how good this team is yet, and still hasn't listing the Rebels as a single-digit favorite over one of the worst teams in college football in Nevada. The Wolf Pack are 0-5 this season with 4 losses by double-digits. That includes a 33-6 home loss to FCS Idaho. Nevada is only averaging 4.4 YPP on offense and allowing 8.4 YPP on defense. That's the worst YPP differential in college football. This is a huge rivalry and sometimes rivalry games are played closer than expected. But that won't be the case in this one. Take UNLV.

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on New Mexico+9

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#146 ASA FREE PLAY ON Pittsburgh +7.5 over Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Great spot here to grab the home dog of more than a TD coming off a bye. While the Panthers are rested, they get Louisville off a huge home win last week vs Notre Dame and now on the road where the Cards have not performed all that well this season. They are 0-3 ATS away from home this season but have only played 1 true road game in an opponent’s stadium. They struggled to beat NC State on the road coming from 10 down in the 2nd half to win by 3. In their other 2 “road” games they faced a bad Indiana team in Indianapolis (@ Colts stadium) and only won 21-14 and then had to come from 15 points down in the 2nd half vs a pretty average Georgia Tech team in a game played at the Falcons stadium. Pitt makes the switch at QB going from Jurkovec who has been poor this season (50% completion rate) and Penn State transfer Veilleux will get the start. The Louisville defense has no film on him and will be flying a bit blind in this game as far as Pitt’s game plan. Veilleux has had 2 weeks to practice with the 1’s due to the bye and we think he brings a spark to a Pitt offense that struggled with Jurkovec at QB. The Panther defense is solid. They rank in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. The Panthers have played only 2 FBS home games this season losing 27-21 vs Cincinnati and 41-24 vs UNC. The UNC game was much closer as they defense held a potent Tar Heel offense to just 5.4 YPP but North Carolina but lost the turnover battle 3-0. Pitt was +7 in that home game vs UNC and now they are getting more than that vs Louisville in a perfect spot for the Panthers? This one goes to the wire as all Louisville road games have, and we’ll take the points.

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Arizona nearly pulled off a massive upset on the road against USC last week but ultimately fell just short. Now I can't help but feel the Wildcats are in for a letdown as they stay on the road to face a Washington State squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following a tough loss at UCLA. The Cougars couldn't get anything going offensively and despite their defense's best efforts, fell just short against the Bruins. I like the bounce-back spot here, noting that Washington State has taken on all comers at home this season, notching wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Oregon State. Arizona is an even 3-3 on the campaign which is about as good as it could have hoped for through six games. The Wildcats covered double-digit spreads in each of the last two games but both contests resulted in losses. Here, I look for Arizona to run out of gas noting that it is a long-term 6-22 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins. Take Washington State.

[ConleyPicks]

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on ND-135

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Notre Dame are 11-3 in their last 14 games.

- Southern California are 1-4 in their last 5 games against Notre Dame.

- Southern California are 0-5 in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Notre Dame.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

[ConleyPicks]

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on MIA-FL+3.5 -115

Nobody wants to pick Miami after seeing them blow the game last week at home versus Georgia Tech. I will go against the grain here, and suggest that last week's results don't mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to how the Canes match up here against the Tar Heels this week. It's not a "Dream Crusher" spot, as there is still plenty of room for a one loss ACC champion. The Canes have lost four in a row versus the Tar Heels, but three of those losses came in games decided by three points. Last year Miami out-gained UNC 538-470 in total yards, and Tyler Van Dyke went off for 496 yards and three TDs on 42-of-57 passing. I think it's a huge mistake to write Miami off after what happened last week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-14-23

Miami Florida @ North Carolina (7:30 PM EST)
Play On: Miami Florida +4

The Miami Florida Hurricanes travel to North Carolina to take on the Tar Heels on Saturday night. Both of these teams should be 5-0 coming into this game but Miami made a huge mistake at the end of their last game and lost in the final seconds so they are 4-1 on the season. Miami Florida is averaging 211 rushing yards per game, 294.8 passing yards per game and a whopping 505.8 total yards per game this year. Their defense has been solid allowing only 58.2 rushing yards per game and 268.4 total yards per game this season. North Carolina allows 152.6 rushing yards per game this year so I think Miami will be able to move the ball here. Miami Florida is scoring 39 points per game overall this year and 41 points per game on the road this season. Miami Florida is allowing only 14.6 points per game overall this year, 7 points per game on the road this season and 12.3 points per game past 3 games overall. I'll recommend a small play on Miami Florida on Saturday night! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Missouri/Kentucky UNDER 51.5

With a 62% chance of rain and nearly 20 MPH winds expected in Kentucky on Saturday, this is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game between the Missouri Tigers and Wildcats. This game will be played mostly on the ground and both run defenses have been stellar. Kentucky only gives up 92 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry while Missouri gives up 108 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in four of the five. Kentucky is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 games overall. Give me the UNDER.

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Missouri Tigers+2.5 -105

Game 135.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

I think we can all agree that this college football regular season is full of surprises each week. Yes, Kentucky has had their way with Missouri, winning seven of the last 10 straight up, covering six of those 10. And yes, the Wildcats are ranked 24th, While, the Tigers are just outside of the top-25. This season they share some similarities as well. They both enter this contest coming off their first loss of the season, as they are both 5-1 straight up. Missouri took down some solid opponents in Kansas State and Memphis, covering both of those games. But come off their first loss of the season, a 49-39 home defeat in which they failed to cover at the hands of LSU. To be quite honest, they played that game a lot closer than the score. The only solid opponent Kentucky took down was Florida, a few weeks back at home. Last week they were absolutely humbled and embarrassed on the road at Georgia, getting routed, 51-12. My friends, the Wildcats are not a team that could bounce back from such a devastating defeat so easily. This is a team known for their defense. However, they did allow the less than stellar, Commodores to post 28 points on them. Let's not even get into the Bulldogs numbers (LOL). Although their defense is solid, they still rank 104th against the pass. How the heck are they going to slow down, let alone stop the 12th ranked passing attack of the Tigers. Missouri's quarterback, Brady Cook has been outstanding, tossing for over 1,879 yards, with a 71.8% completion rate, 13 TDs and only two INT's. He also has several solid ball-carriers at his disposal to keep the Kentucky defense honest. Offensively, the Wildcats are pretty good. But you may not realize so is the Tigers defense. They're not going to move the chain so easily against the very aggressive, Missouri stop-unit. My friends, Wildcats quarterback, Devin, Leary is good. But I think we can all agree. He is the definition of Jekyll and Hyde. Against both the Gators and the Bulldogs, his numbers plummeted. The Tigers know this, and will be very aggressive, wreaking havoc on the shaky QB. Take Missouri. Thank you.

[ConleyPicks]

DREW MARTIN

Event: (215) USC at (216) Notre Dame
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:30 PM EDT

Free College Football Pick Today: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110)

Primetime Saturday night on NBC featuring the USC Trojans vs the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, Indiana. Intriguing handicap with the Irish coming off a loss to Louisville and now having dropped two of their last three games. Up against a Trojans team with a sparkling (6-0) record on the season. The oddsmakers pinning the two loss team as the favorite is very telling. Reading the writing on the wall, we are laying it with the under rated Irish.

USC is undefeated on the year, however they are a money burning (2-4) against the spread. Including losing each of the last three games against the number by an astonishing 55 points off the closing point spread. Meaning they have been drastically overpriced in the betting markets. It is not surprising that bettors would be paying up to bet on USC, returning last year's Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Although, the defense has been gashed game in game out, giving up 40+ points in each of their last two times out.

The QB battle alone is worth tuning in with Williams and Hartmann being two of the top college football quarterbacks in the nation. We have it as the Notre Dame defense being the difference. Considering the strength of schedule, the Irish ranking in the top 20 nationally in both scoring defense and yards per play against is a spectacular start. Notre Dame pressure will make Williams' day a tough one, against by far the best defensive unit the Trojans will have played year to date. Notre Dame wins, number good through (-3). Bet Irish.

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON

Event: (301219) Hiroshima D at (301220) Saga
Sport/League: JBL
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 3:05 AM EDT

Free Japan B League Pick Today: Under 153.5 Hiroshima D/Saga

The last two games between these two ended in an average of 144. Through two games and put into the formula it also comes to 144. I project this at 146 in a 81-65 game so make a small play on the under 153.5.

[ConleyPicks]

JEFF MICHAELS

Event: (187) Oregon at (188) Washington
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 3:30 PM EDT

Free College Football Pick Today: Oregon +3.0 (+100)

1% Oregon Ducks (+3) over Washington —
There is no denying that these are two of the best passing offenses in the country … Penix leads the nation in YPA (11.2), while Nix leads the nation in completion % (80.4%) of all qualifying QBs.
Both of these teams are currently 5-0, but only one of them is ALSO 5-0 ATS on the season and that is Oregon. Plus, the Ducks have won and covered 15 of the L18 meetings between these two teams and have a NOTICEABLY better pass defense. That pass defense will be the difference maker in this game.
Oregon ranks 5th nationally in passing YPG allowed (153.6), while Washington ranks 92nd and is allowing 90 YPG MORE through the air. I expect and explosive game here, but Nix’s 15/1 TD:INT ratio is just too impressive, and this Oregon team is more of a threat on BOTH sides of the ball.

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON

Event: (304671) Lotte Giants at (304672) Hanwha Eagles
Sport/League: KBO
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 4:00 AM EDT
Free KBO League Pick Today: 1H Lotte Giants +0.5 (-135)

Han has an amazing history vs Hanwha. In three starts this season he has a 3-0 record with a 0.59 ERA. Yes, Pena is a good pitcher but if Han can do what he has been doing all season vs a depleted Hanwha lineup that ranks 10 of 10 teams in WoBA, even a 0-0 tie can pay off this bet. Take a +0.5 in the first 5 this is being offered at Draft Kings now at -135.

[ConleyPicks]

THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (159) Marshall at (160) Georgia State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 53.0 Marshall/ Georgia State (-110)

Marshall has been involved in back-to-back games that have each featured six turnovers: A 41-35 home win over Old Dominion followed by a 48-41 road loss at NC State. This is not your Marshall team of old. Previous editions of the Herd were built on defense, running the ball and operating at a slow pace. Running back Rasheen Ali is still the best player on the team, but this year's version of Marshall is much more explosive on offense. Quarterback Cam Fancher attempted 51 passes against NC State last week in a game where Marshall was leading for large stretches and were never really in "comeback mode." The week prior against Old Dominion, Fancher was 29-of-35 for 278 yards and two touchdowns. Georgia State has scored 30+ in four of its five games this season, and the Panthers are coming off a bye week. Darren Grainger is one of the best quarterbacks in the Sun Belt. This should be an entertaining affair.

[ConleyPicks]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (161) Georgia Southern at (162) James Madison
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 59.5 Georgia Southern/James Madison (-110)

KEY TREND:
Since last season, the OVER is 8-0 when James Madison is coming off an ATS win (covered the spread). These games went OVER by an average of 13.5 points per game. Average total points scored: 68.4

[ConleyPicks]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (163) Toledo at (164) Ball State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 2:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Under 48.5 Toledo/Ball State (-110)

KEY TREND:
Since 2021, the UNDER is 9-0 when Ball State is coming off a conference loss. These games stayed UNDER by an average of 12.1 points per game. Average total points scored: 41.5

[ConleyPicks]

ROB VENO

Event: (213) San Diego State at (214) Hawaii
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 11:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 52.5 San Diego State/Hawaii (-110)

(213) San Diego State at (214) Hawaii (Game Analysis Below)
Play Rating: 3%
Play Type: Full Game Total
Play: Total Over 52.5 (-110)
Date/Time: Oct 14, 2023 11:00 PM EDT / Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line

San Diego State weakeness vs. the run not likely to be exposed here
The 4 weeks prior to their Bye last week the Aztecs gave up 287 / 241 / 191 / 254 rushing yards to run dominant offenses (Air Force / Boise State / Oregon State / UCLA)
That’s 973 total yards rushing in 4 games (243.3 per game) & 5.9 per carry
Those numbers are not skewed by sack yardage (SDS only 3 sacks for -26 yards in those games)
But Hawaii doesn’t run (only 60.2 rypg) and the play calling is lopsided (38.4% run / 62.6% pass) so can’t expect them to play to their weakness and be successful
However, they could still have success vs the SDSU pass defense which has not applied a lot of pressure and did get hit for 931 py & 18.6 per completion vs the 4 teams I mentioned above
That said, Hawaii has not stopped anything defensively this year (allowed 449 including 337 on the ground to UNLV last week), 560 to Oregon and 406 to Stanford
QB Jalen Mayden has sparked the offense a bit when faced with lesser foes and SDSU has been a bit more balanced and quicker tempo in spots
This is a huge step down in class for the Aztecs offense so expect them to be balanced & productive because they’ll be able to get the running game going

[ConleyPicks]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (151) Iowa State at (152) Cincinnati
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Under 43.0 Iowa State/Cincinnati (-110)

Just can't pull the trigger now at 43 when I could've had 50 a few days ago.
KEY TREND:
The UNDER is 9-0 when Iowa State is a road underdog of 7 or fewer points under head coach Matt Campbell. These games stayed UNDER by an average of 18.6 points per game. Average total points scored: 35.7

[ConleyPicks]

THE PREZ

Event: (191) Arizona at (192) Washington State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Arizona +7.5 (-110)

Arizona-Washington State
The final score for Washington State last week against UCLA may have ended up as a 25-17 loss, but the fact of the matter is they should have been beaten much worse. UCLA outgained them 471-216 and had it not been for a INT return for a touchdown right before the half, the Cougars would have been blown out of the water. Coming off their first loss of 2023, Wazzu returns home to face a dangerous Arizona squad that just played Washington and USC very tough. The Wildcats should have probably beaten USC last week. It was their second overtime loss of the season so don’t be fooled by a 3-3 overall record. They’ve yet to lose a game by more than 7 so there’s no reason Washington State (who isn’t as good as either Washington or USC) should be laying this many points here. Arizona outgained USC 506-365 despite playing with a backup QB. Grab the points with Arizona.

[ConleyPicks]

STEVE MERRIL

Event: (153) Miami Florida at (154) North Carolina
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: North Carolina -3.0 (-110)

-Miami comes in off an inexplicable loss when they could have run out the clock; hangover
-North Carolina is a perfect 5-0 on the season; their biggest home game in awhile; big effort
-Tar Heels defense is allowing just 19 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season
Play NORTH CAROLINA (-3).

[ConleyPicks]

DAVE COKIN

Event: (205) Temple at (206) North Texas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Temple +6.0 (-110)

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN LEONARD

Event: (199) Auburn at (200) LSU
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 60.0 Auburn/LSU (-110)

Auburn at LSU
Auburn had last week off after taking #1 Georgia to the buzzer in a 27-20 loss. That’s two losses in a row after starting the season 3-0. Coach Hugh Freeze is at his best in the underdog role, posting a 28-13 ATS mark. The underdog in this series has also cashed seven straight, while Auburn has won four straight ATS.
Auburn struggled against the run last year, allowing 4.6 ypc. We are seeing more of the same this season. They have done a nice job in pass defense, but Auburn hasn’t had much offensive success through the air. The running game has been productive, but until they complement that through the air this offense will be suspect. They were able to score 59 and 45 against weak competition. But against Power Five teams they managed just 14, 10 and 20 points.
LSU has a solid home field advantage, especially in night games. They were 6-1 ATS in Brian Kelly’s inaugural season. LSU enters play at 4-2 on the season with losses to #4 Florida State and #13 Mississippi.
Unlike their opponent LSU has been terrific through the air offensively. Posting a Quarterback Rating of 185.80, with a 19 to 2 TD to INT ratio. This is a very dynamic offense which should have no trouble moving the football.
Unfortunately they are allowing over 5 yards per carry on the ground, and Auburn can exploit that.
Let’s look for a high scoring affair as we just don’t trust either stop unit.
PLAY OVER

[ConleyPicks]

DON BUSTER

Event: (135) Missouri at (136) Kentucky
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Kentucky -2.5 (-110)

Two teams that took really bad losses in their last game play in Lexington. Georgia took Kentucky to the woodshed. and Missouri coughed up a big lead and lost to LSU. Which one will bounce back? I break down this game on my twitter homepage at don_buster. So lets get the job done with the Kentucky Wildcats as your free play for CFB.

[ConleyPicks]

ADAM TRIGGER

Event: (205) Temple at (206) North Texas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Temple +6.5 (-110)

FanDuel and DK back to 6.5. I think other spots will follow suit. I will lock in here.

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN POWER

Event: (141) Florida at (142) South Carolina
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 3:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: South Carolina -2.0 (-110)

3% South Carolina (3:30 ET): Looking at the SEC East, we obviously know who the best team is (Georgia) and who the worst team is (Vanderbilt). But I think there’s a lot of question marks with the rest of the division including these two teams. We’ve got conflicting trends here as, going back to his time at Louisiana, Florida HC Billy Napier is 17-6-1 ATS as an underdog with 10 outright upsets. That includes what was a nice 5% winner for me a couple weeks ago when the Gators upset Tennessee. But, since becoming the head coach at South Carolina, Shane Beamer has been very profitable as a favorite, going 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in that role.
The Gamecocks are short home favorites here and I am going to lean on two things. One is they are coming off a bye. The last four times the Gamecocks have played with rest, they are 3-1 SU and ATS. That includes three wins against SEC opponents, all outright as underdogs where they covered the spread by an average of 21 PPG. Interestingly enough, this will be the first of three straight SEC games for Florida where the opponent is off a bye. (Though they too will have a week off before the Georgia game).
Rest is one key here. Homefield advantage is the other. Six of the last seven meetings between these schools have seen the home team prevail. South Carolina is also on a 12-4 SU/11-5 ATS run here in Columbia while Florida is a pitiful 1-13 SU its last 14 games outside of Gainesville. Earlier, I mentioned Florida’s upset of Tennessee. That was at home, obviously. On the road this year, the Gators are 0-2, losing by double digits to Utah and Kentucky. They scored just 25 points in those two losses. Meanwhile, this is just the third home game for South Carolina, who has had to face North Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia all away from home. Led by QB Spencer Rattler, the Gamecocks have put up 37 and 47 points in the first two home games. Rattler is much better than Florida QB Graham Mertz and I’m very confident the home team wins this one by more than a field goal. 3% South Carolina (Play to -3)

[ConleyPicks]

JIMMY ADAMS

Event: (143) Michigan State at (144) Rutgers
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Rutgers -4.5 (-110)

Rutgers has been a point spread covering machine this season and this is a rare instance where it’s ok to lay points with them. We all know that Michigan State is a disaster right now, and on top of everything they have been bit by the injury bug. The bye week won’t help them much as quarterback Noah Kim was horrible against Iowa, throwing 3 picks in the loss. They now face another stiff test against a defense in Rutgers we know is top-notch. The Scarlet Knights have 2 losses this season, with both coming on the road against Wisconsin and Michigan. Expect the defense to come up big yet again as they get the win and cover at home. Take Rutgers.

[ConleyPicks]

GIANNI THE GREEK

Event: (157) Florida Atlantic at (158) South Florida
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 3:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 59.5 FAU/USF (-110)

[ConleyPicks]

KYLE ANTHONY

Event: (24425) Daniel Lacerda at (24426) Edgar Chairez
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Free Mixed Martial Arts Pick Today: Daniel Lacerda +250

[ConleyPicks]

LAS VEGAS CRIS

Event: (145) Louisville at (146) Pittsburgh
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 6:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110) This looks like a good spot for Pittsburgh over touchdown

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN LEONARD

Event: (131) Texas A&M at (132) Tennessee
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 3:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Tennessee -3.0 (-110)

132 Texas A&M at Tennessee
Fourth straight tough game for the Aggies who just played Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn. They are 0-2 vs ranked opponents, losing by a combined 74-53 score. Despite the tougher schedule they have out-gained the opposition 6.26 to 4.73 yards per play.
Tennessee is off a bye after taking care of South Carolina two weeks ago. They have now won 12 straight games at Leyland Stadium. The Volunteer running game has been extremely impressive with 6.18 yards per carry. A&M only allows 2.61 ypc, so that battle in the trenches will decide the winner.
The current line sits in the -3 range for the host. We expect this line to close -4, so there is some slight value in our eyes on Tennessee.
PLAY TENNESSEE

[ConleyPicks]

BEN BURNS

Event: (145) Louisville at (146) Pittsburgh
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 6:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Pittsburgh +8.0 (-110)

The Panthers are off a much needed bye. That should have allowed them a chance to regroup while providing some extra preparation time for Saturday's game against the Cardinals. Off its upset of Notre Dame, Louisville may be in letdown mode. While the Panthers lost at Louisville last year, they're 6-2-1 ATS the past nine meetings. The last game here was decided by a field goal and this one also figures to be close. Grab the points. *good at +7 or better

[ConleyPicks]

KEVIN DOLAN

Event: (24791) Brian Mendoza at (24792) Tim Tszyu
Sport/League: BOX
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 8:00 AM EDT
Free Boxing Pick Today: Tim Tszyu Rds 7-12 (+155)

We like Tim Tszyu to grind out a second half stoppage on Sunday morning (Saturday night U.S. time) over in Australia in what should be a real back-and-forth war against heavy hitter Brian Mendoza this weekend.
PLAY: TIM TSZYU RDS 7-12 (+155)

[ConleyPicks]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (207) Georgia at (208) Vanderbilt
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Georgia -31.5 (-110)

Take Georgia (#207)
The Bulldogs didn’t blow everybody out for the first month of the season, opening the campaign with an 0-4-1 ATS mark in their first five ballgames. What happens when a high profile team costs their backers $$ week after week to open the season? Simple – their betting bandwagon gets smaller and smaller, and suddenly you can find national championship contenders like Georgia available to back at a relatively cheap pointspread.
That’s the case this week with Georgia, coming off their season best offensive showing in points (51), yards (608), and yards per play (8.3), while allowing a season low 183 yards to Kentucky. The Bulldogs beat Vandy 55-0 last year and 62-0 in 2021 at -36 and -37.5.
This year, they’re only laying 31.5 as of this write-up, and Vanderbilt might well be a weaker squad then they were last year – they’ve been an ATS disaster area as well. I do worry about Georgia losing focus with a bye week on deck so splitting your bet between a full game and a first half wager might hedge off that possibility. That said, I expect a blowout and so do the betting markets. Lay it or don’t play it! Take Georgia.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton RacewayAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 9 - Post: 6:56 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$6000 - N/W $1501


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 3 KILAUEA 5/2




# 7 WIXX HANOVER 9/2




# 6 MY GUY WRAPSITUP 8/1





KILAUEA more than likely seems to be the race horse to beat in this event. With a 87 average class number, this fine animal has one of the finest class edges in the pack. Many handicappers will recognize the outstanding TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this race. WIXX HANOVER - This interesting entrant looks very good. Check out the 86 average speed rating. With a 89 average class figure, this horse has one of the best class advantages in the group. MY GUY WRAPSITUP - Take a good long look at making this horse your win play based on high win percentage alone.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 1


5
5
AMERICAN FASHION
5/1
Ross, Jordan - 10
572.46


4
4
SIMPLY VOLO
7/2
Putnam, Joey - 10
562.19


9
9
TIMON AS
4/1
Miller, Lewayne - 10
558.02


8
8
I C CAVIAR
5/1
De Long, John - 16
535.45


7
7
FLAT OUT FOXY
3/1
Ferguson, Brad - 5
525.96


1
1
AUNT PERCILLA
15/1
Oosting, Michael - 12
524.92


3
3
ZAPPA
10/1
Plano, Luke - 20
518.83


6
6
T WOODLEY
8/1
Luna, Marvin - 13
506.46


2
2
DOUBLE A GOLDRUSH
12/1
Tetrick, Trace - 21
481.61

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 13


1
1
CRUISE ALERT
4/1
Stratton, Jordan - 13
544.27


8
8
SOUTHWIND BELLA
10/1
Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 27
524.51


4
4
ZANATTA
7/2
Bongiorno, Joe - 16
522.45


2
2
REC TIME
6/1
Page, Chris - 20
511.70


9
9
UCANDOIT BLUE CHIP
2/1
Zeron, Scott - 13
509.21


3
3
TARAPASTA
8/1
Merriman, Aaron - 24
505.19


7
7
SOMWHERUNDERHEAVN
12/1
Hall, Tony - 15
501.22


6
6
PROSECCO PRINCESS
15/1
Smith, Tyler - 14
476.09


5
5
LITTLE LADY J
20/1
Indof, Jeremy - 10
401.85

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 14 - Post: 4:54 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$12500 - NW $9,500


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 5 BRIDGE TO VICTORY 4/1




# 3 MACMORRIS HANOVER 5/1




# 7 DIEHARD SEELSTER 9/2





Hard not to like BRIDGE TO VICTORY as the top pick in here. If effort in the last gathering is any indicator, this contender will have a very really strong shot for this race. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. Take a good look at making this horse your win bet based on well above average win percent alone. Not many folks know, but the 5 position here at Pocono Downs has been stellar for a much better than average win clip. MACMORRIS HANOVER - Stellar win percentage combined with recent really good performances. We think he can handle this group. Comp pace figs say this race should shape up nicely for this gelding. Looking for a big effort. DIEHARD SEELSTER - His 90 average has this gelding among the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings in this race. This race horse has shown us ability in its prior races, just look at the 90 avg class rating. Should play well for this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at North Side Downs

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 9


1
1
RUNAWAY MYSTERY
7/2
Leblanc, Harold J - 23
507.95


5
5
Q TS CHARLIE
9/2
Lynk, Shawn R - 13
507.70


2
2
REVENANT
5/2
Mullins, Zachary D - 18
505.00


3
3
A BETTER MAN
3/1
Kennedy, John Gerard - 15
489.28


6
6
RED RUM SHE WROTE
6/1
Bates, Angus M - 14
442.04


7
7
HOWMAC NAPOLEON
5/1
Campbell, Ryan C - 23
420.87


4
4
TWO TONE TERROR
4/1
Langille, Paul W - 25
417.65

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga HarnessAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 7 - Post: 7:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$8000 - C& G - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2 EXT. PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $30,000 LIFE. AE: ALL AGES - $12,000 CLM FOR N/W 4 EXT P-M RACES OR $50,000 LIFE.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



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# 2 STAGE WEST 5/2




# 6 MIKI DE VIE 7/2




# 1 PRAIRIE FENWAY 3/1





The consensus in this contest is that STAGE WEST is the one to beat. That 70 speed rating clocked in the most recent contest puts this entrant in the mix today. This trainer, and the driver Beckwith, go together like cookies and milk. Their results together are terrific. The consortium has Beckwith on its list of drivers who are tough as nails recently. Last 30 days win rate is terrific. MIKI DE VIE - With a 75 average class statistic, this standardbred has one of the most respectable class advantages in the pack. The knowledge group noted a clear-cut effort out of this contender last time. Looking for a repeat of that to dominate. PRAIRIE FENWAY - This contender and Raia have some sort of connection going. In the money percentage for this duo is high.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 14 - Post: 4:54 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$12500 - NW $9,500


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 5 BRIDGE TO VICTORY 4/1




# 3 MACMORRIS HANOVER 5/1




# 7 DIEHARD SEELSTER 9/2





Hard not to like BRIDGE TO VICTORY as the top pick in here. If effort in the last gathering is any indicator, this contender will have a very really strong shot for this race. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. Take a good look at making this horse your win bet based on well above average win percent alone. Not many folks know, but the 5 position here at Pocono Downs has been stellar for a much better than average win clip. MACMORRIS HANOVER - Stellar win percentage combined with recent really good performances. We think he can handle this group. Comp pace figs say this race should shape up nicely for this gelding. Looking for a big effort. DIEHARD SEELSTER - His 90 average has this gelding among the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings in this race. This race horse has shown us ability in its prior races, just look at the 90 avg class rating. Should play well for this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Shenandoah Downs

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 12


5
5
MAX CONNOR
2/1
Carter, William - 10
378.12


4
4
CONSTANT VELOCITY
8/5
Buford, Archie - 15
373.23


3
3
QUEEN'S CRUISER
9/2
Myers, Lucas - 34
343.75


6
6
ALL ABOUT TIME
3/1
Paquet, Fern Jr - 17
325.26


7
7
ATAWAY BOMBAY
10/1
Erzene, Kubi - 5
312.37


8
8
MAGIC CHIP
10/1
Smith, Branden - 7
247.30


1
1
GOOD QUEEN BESS
10/1
Lubosco, Ronald - 0
238.16


2
2
TOY WITH ME
6/1
Perry, Charles Jr - 21
0.00

[ConleyPicks]

#ParlaySafari


12pm FSU -18.5 -110 (2u) vs Syracuse
330pm Texas A&M +3 -110 (2u) vs Tennessee
330pm Florida +15 -110 (30) vs South Carolina
330pm TCU -5 -110 (2u) vs BYU
4pm Wisconsin -9.5 -105 (2u) vs lowa
630pm Louisville -7 -110 (2u) vs Pitt
7pm Marshall +1.5 -110 (2u) vs Georgia State
945pm Boise State -8.5 -110 (3u) vs Colorado State