View Full Version : Sunday 10/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Can'tPickAWinner
10-09-2023, 10:49 PM
Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!
NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)
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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)
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College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)
NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)
NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:31 AM
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/15/23 October 15, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Exultation; 1-Jetovator; 5-Rager.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: There are several legitimate contenders in this $50,000 claiming turf sprint so we suggest a spread strategy in rolling exotic play. Smaller ticket players can focus on the three listed above. Exultation has his issues but always has been genuine and consistent while displaying excellent form over the local lawn. Away since mid-August, the veteran gelding has been sparingly raced throughout most of his career but anything close to his best race will make him hard to beat. A recent bullet training track breeze is encouraging. His Peter Eurton-trained stablemate Jetovator is a five-time winner over the Santa Anita course and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail post. He doesn’t always deliver when well-backed on the tote but he should at least be in the fray close home. Rager is a dangerous Bay Area invader with numbers that make him a major player. He’ll be running on late.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Into Yellowstone; 4-Greenteaze.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Into Yellowstone flashed good early speed to the turn before dropping out of the picture when chasing infinitely tougher straight maiden foes at Del Mar in her second career start last month. Against this group, she could clear early and get brave. Greenteaze is a first-off-the-claim for $32,000 by capable training Paul Aguirre after finishing a weakening third in a moderate race for the level. With any kind of forward move today for her new connections, the daughter of Firing Line should be reasonably competitive. Tread lightly here.
*
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Mega Moon; 1-Worse Read Sanchez.
Backups/savers/Underneath: 8-Beef Winslow.
Forecast: Mega Moon has rising speed figures, good recent form, and more room for improvement than most of the others in this starter optional claiming turf miler. He picks up leading rider Juan Hernandez and appears fairly solid at 5/2 on the morning line. Worse Read Sanchez fits on numbers in his first start for a tag and lands the good rail, but as a winner of just one race from 20 starts he’s a hard one to trust.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Top Gun Tommy; 3-Rookie Mistake.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast Top Gun Tommy, a recent $10,000 Steve Knapp claim, moves up a notch after finishing a close second in a solid race at Del Mar last month. Not much better will be needed today. Rookie Mistake drops below his claim level and rates a look despite being winless in 12 starts over the Santa Anita main track. In a shaky affair, we’ll try to get by using just these two.
*
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Gracelund Gray; 2-Kitty Kitana.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Gracelund Gray projects as the lone speed in this turf miler for second level allowance fillies and mares and given the likely pace flow could easily take control early and never look back. She went way too fast early in her recent comeback at Del Mar and paid the price late, but under the circumstances actually did quite well to hang on for third money. Slow down and survive today! Kitty Kitana is logically the one to beat but has burned money on several occasion and never seems to punch it in under pressure.
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Sand to Sea; 3-Magic Wanderer.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Bajan Bashert; 7-Rhyme Or Reason.
Forecast Sand to Sea returns to dirt and appears to have found a proper spot to earn her diploma. In the frame in all three career starts, most recently when a close second in a turf sprint nine days ago, the daughter of Danzing Candy projects to be prominent throughout, and with a repeat of her only prior main track outing in her debut at Del Mar the Gary Stute-trained juvenile filly should be hard to handle. Magic Wanderer is a consistent Bay Area invader with three runner-up performances in her first three career starts. On numbers she’s a fit and she did run well on dirt at Santa Rosa in August.
*
RACE 7: Post: 3:30 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Kings River Knight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Kings River Knight is thoroughly genuine, consistent, and versatile. He can handle any surface or distance and was beaten a neck in a state-bred stakes in his only prior outing over the Hillside Turf Course. The John Sadler-trained gelding has won three of his last four starts with powerful speed figures and on paper looks like a 7/5 shot worth taking, assuming you can get that price.
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ipanema Girl; 7-Vulin.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Stylish Dress.
Forecast: Ipanema Girl drops to the bottom after a pair of unplaced runs vs. tougher but against this group the Carla Gaines-trained filly should be competitive. Lightly raced with the room to improve that most of the other exposed runners don’t have, the daughter of Strong Mandate shows a healthy recent work tab that should have her fit enough for a good effort in her first outing since late July. A little will go a long way here. Vulin is a 10-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but on numbers she’s a fit and is a major contender by default.
*
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Golden Again
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Tizzy Twister.
Forecast: Golden Again rates the edge in a grass grab bag in which nothing would surprise. The daughter of Paynter has hit the board in five of six career starts over the local lawn (with two wins) and from her good inside draw projects to enjoy a comfortable ground-saving, second flight journey. With three solid breezes since raced, the Steve Knapp-trained sophomore should be set for a top effort and have excuses.
*
RACE 10: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Mr. Leasure
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Concord Bridge; 2-Lake Superior.
Forecast: Mr. Leasure stepped forward considerably between his debut and his second start when finishing a strong runner-up over a wet fast track in a good maiden special weight sprint here last month. With the coveted two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and a pedigree that okay’s this one mile trip, the son of Distorted Humor looks ready to graduate for trainer Doug O’Neill. Let’s hope he doesn’t get parked out wide from his outside draw entering the clubhouse turn.
*
RACE 11: Post: 5:30 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Summer Lake; 1-Warren’s Paradice.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We always thought Summer Lake had a bit more ability than she showed in a pair of outings in the spring of 2022 and maybe she’ll be a better type this time around. The Carla Gaines-trained filly shows a fairly decent recent work tab to have her fit and ready, and in this state-bred maiden miler she really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a gamble. Warren’s Paradice, beaten a neck in a similar affair at Del Mar last month, is the likely choice and strictly the one to beat.
*
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:32 AM
AlCimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis October 15, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a Sunday night 11-race card. The features are the Night of Champions Consolation races. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The sequence has a $15,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8 (9:30 PM CST)
1-Big Flicka (9/5)-Not loving the short price. But will respect chances especially with the driver change to Michael Rogers. This could be the spot to post the 1st win at Haw, currently (0-5).
2-Amy Mooss (25-1)-Could get an efficient trip with this post draw, and post a suck-around win. Should be racing near the top of the stack and is worth a swing at the morning line price.
8-Illini Belle (2-1)-Left the gate in no rush, dropped in behind 2 large prices and the 75-1 shot stalled early on. Had to come 3rd over, went wide for the drive and rallied but could only finish 3rd. Stewart can do better and should, because this appears to be the most likely winner with a smooth trip.
Race 9 (9:50 PM CST)
2-RJ Rocks (7/5)-The morning line chalk isn't automatic but has good speed and has done decent work at Haw (20-3-5-4). Hoosier shipper probably needs the lead turning for the wire to win and that trip can happen.
3-Arnie's Army (6-1)-This will be the 3rd start in town and should be tight enough after being used to get the top off the gate. That trip didn't work out but will look for a different plan and a better finish for this price shot.
4-Frankiepark (9/2)-Stepped up and comes off a no move mile from post 10. Now drops and fits much better. Leonard can have forwardly placed off the gate and should offer a square price.
Race 10 (10:10 PM CST)
8-Fox Valley Reeva (4/5)-Erv Miller pupil appears to be the best with a decent trip and if minds manners. Doesn't show big gate speed but won in 155.1 on 10-1 with a 27.1 last quarter and that was only the 5th career start. Stewart needs to put in play early enough to avoid being paced compromised.
Race 11 (10:30 PM CST)
4-Tookadiveoffdipper (7/2)-Drops and makes the 2nd start off the bench. Can be a main player if tight enough. Likes the Haw oval (20-8-4-3). Should fit well with this group and gets a post edge over some others who would be in the mix.
8-Rush To Judgement (9/2)-Interesting affair with 3 horses winning 2 in a row (6-7-8). The 9-year-old has won at this level by taking control early on and not looking back. Should offer a fair price and with the right trip the win streak could continue. Will rely on Bates providing a sharp steer, and can also win coming off cover.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,2,8/2,3,4/8/4,8
Total Bet=$9
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:33 AM
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks
Notes
#7 Johnny Podres
I'm willing to forgive the Los Al dud last time out on the main track, and she brings a handful of sneaky good turf running lines to this. Wouldn't be a total shock at a midrange price.
#1 Brickyard Ride
We'll see if he has enough early foot to really find a rhythm at this trip down the hill, as he has been struggling a bit to stay late in his recent races after working a bit harder than he used to for the front. Capable, but the price might be underwhelming.
#4 Kings River Knight
He's easy to like and always runs his race, and he has run well at this shorter trip in the past, easing some concerns about the turn back in distance. No real arguments from me here.
Race Summary
Johnny Podres has shown some positional pace that should leave him in a decent spot while trying to spy the rail runner's speed. Hoping he'll offer a solid price with a couple other sharp players lined up.
Santa Anita - Race #10
Picks
Notes
#2 Lake Superior
Not sure he's going to offer an exciting price, but this team has ruled these two-turn kinds of spots with 2-year-olds in recent years, and I assume this one might have a little upside today.
#4 Malibu Rain
He brought his best stuff yet when getting around two turns on the dirt for the first time, and he figures to be in a decent enough spot tracking the splits today. Logical alternative.
#8 Mr. Leasure
He's fast enough to be in the frame with these early while getting around two turns, but I also like that he can probably settle just a touch and get past some of these if needed. In the mix, but not sure I'd be too thrilled at anything like the 5/2 ML price.
Race Summary
Lake Superior and the rail runner Wynstock both go for a Baffert team that has dominated similar spots here recently. The turf-to-dirt move for Lake Superior gives him some room to improve at second asking.
Santa Anita - Race #11
Picks
Notes
#3 Annie's Hope
She has a little bit of pace in a race with a lot of potential finishing players, and she might just need a perfectly timed, first-jump move to get her nose on the wire.
#4 Summer Lake
She didn't have the cleanest go when she was last seen here in May 2022, but she makes some sense at this kind of trip if she's ready to go off the long break. Get a look at her.
#1 Warren's Paradice
She makes a lot of sense on paper with several competitive running lines against similar, but she doesn't appear to be coming into this with a ton of upside at this point in time, unless she moves up on the new footing while racing locally for the first time.
Race Summary
Annie's Hope and Summer Lake interest the most here, but the former gets the edge with a great trip waiting for her near the top. Wouldn't be totally shocked to see Summer Lake ready to roll off the long break -- back with some purpose?
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:34 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=lrl1015zf.pdf&exp=10/17/2023&pds=LRL_-_10/15/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/15/2023;TRACK_CODE=LRL&SAP=FREEPICS)
Laurel Park - Race 7
EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $58,000 • Post: 3:35P
(RAIL AT 17 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED/STATE SIRED/RESTRICTED OR STATE CERTIFIED RACE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000-$32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $32,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * EIDIKOS (GB): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CUSTOMER LIST (F R): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CUPID'S STRIKE: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. GALILEI: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
6
EIDIKOS (GB)
7/2
6/1
10
CUSTOMER LIST (FR)
2/1
7/1
9
CUPID'S STRIKE
15/1
7/1
4
GUN BOAT
3/1
8/1
5
GALILEI
15/1
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
4
GUN BOAT
4
3/1
Front-runner
91
90
87.7
87.7
81.2
9
CUPID'S STRIKE
9
15/1
Front-runner
89
89
87.4
87.6
76.6
2
TUFANI
2
6/1
Front-runner
87
91
78.8
86.7
77.7
10
CUSTOMER LIST (FR)
10
2/1
Alternator/Stalker
89
85
76.0
86.6
79.6
5
GALILEI
5
15/1
Alternator/Stalker
90
87
74.2
84.8
74.3
8
MORGS WORLD
8
12/1
Trailer
84
85
81.5
76.8
57.8
7
IN A SPIN
7
15/1
Trailer
89
85
68.0
83.2
69.7
3
SURYA
3
20/1
Trailer
86
81
59.6
84.0
71.0
6
EIDIKOS (GB)
6
7/2
Alternator/Trailer
90
90
103.4
84.6
79.1
1
AMAZON QUEEN
1
30/1
Alternator/Trailer
92
81
80.4
75.6
63.6
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:34 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase SpecialPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=eqd1015zf.pdf&exp=10/17/2023&pds=EQD_-_10/15/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/15/2023;TRACK_CODE=EQD&SAP=FREEPICS)
Equibase Special - Race 2
Leg 2 of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3
Stakes • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 105 • Purse: $350,000 • Post: 4:12P
FRANKLIN S. KEE - R7 - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CARAVEL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CARAVEL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1
CARAVEL
9/5
5/2
4
TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE)
6/1
6/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
CARAVEL
1
9/5
Front-runner
105
104
116.6
108.8
106.8
4
TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE)
4
6/1
Front-runner
103
97
108.6
96.2
88.7
9
B G WARRIOR
9
30/1
Stalker
95
88
87.5
84.6
68.1
3
TRAIN TO ARTEMUS
3
20/1
Stalker
95
87
87.2
83.0
68.0
5
BAY STORM
5
9/2
Stalker
103
94
81.6
96.4
86.9
8
TONY ANN
8
8/1
Stalker
102
92
79.6
92.8
84.3
6
LINGUISTIC
6
30/1
Stalker
96
98
73.4
90.4
75.9
2
WAKANAKA (IRE)
2
5/1
Trailer
103
90
28.3
86.0
79.5
Unknown Running Style: STAR GUEST (GB) (4/1) [Jockey: Saez Luis - Trainer: Appleby Charles].
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:35 AM
Handicapped by The Walker Group at ColumbusPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=cls1015zz.htm&exp=10/17/2023&pds=CLS_-_10/15/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/15/2023;TRACK_CODE=CLS&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 70
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 8 ITS A DEAL 2/1
# 6 HE'S PRETTY LUCKY 5/2
# 9 INCITATUS 5/1
I like ITS A DEAL here. Reliable average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this equine a solid contender. He looks quite good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. This horse has a wonderful win percentage in dirt sprints. HE'S PRETTY LUCKY - He has posted solid figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group. With a solid 63 speed fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this affair. INCITATUS - Is difficult not to consider given the company run in recently. Don't overlook this gelding in your bets - very dangerous with McNeil aboard.
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:35 AM
Handicapped by The Walker Group at AlbuquerquePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=alb1015zz.htm&exp=10/17/2023&pds=ALB_-_10/15/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/15/2023;TRACK_CODE=ALB&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $160000 Class Rating: 77
NEW MEXICO STATE FAIR THOROUGHBRED FUTURITY - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS, REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BREDS, WHICH QUALIFIED FOR THE 2023 NEW MEXICO STATE FAIR THOROUGHBRED FUTURITY FINALS. WEIGHT.120 LBS. FILLIES.117 LBS. RACE WILL BE LASIX FREE
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 9 MILK IT 6/1
# 6 PAYINGOFFMYMARKER 7/2
# 4 MARK IT DOWN 8/1
MILK IT looks to be a very strong contender. Has posted strong Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. He has been running admirably and the Speed Figures are among the best in this group of horses. Must be given a shot given the class of races run recently. PAYINGOFFMYMARKER - Juarez ought to be able to get this filly to break out early in this race. Has to be used in the exotic bets. MARK IT DOWN - This filly obviously likes the distance, going 2 out of 4 in her races lately. Always difficult to beat Barton and Ceballos working together, winning 30 percent of their races.
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:36 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=gp1015zm.htm&exp=10/17/2023&pds=GP_-_10/15/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/15/2023;TRACK_CODE=GP&SAP=FREEPICS)
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Gulfstream Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:21pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 74
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#1 BIG TOBY (ML=5/2)
BIG TOBY - I predict a perfect trip. Stalk the early pace, and make a bold move on the turn. It looks like Gonzalez had to learn about this gelding on Aug 19th when riding him for the initial time. Back atop again today. This gelding is in the top spot in earnings per race. Give the once over to this one in the paddock.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HANCOCK (ML=2/1), #4 MAYHEMINTHEPALACE (ML=3/1), #6 MY ADDICTION (ML=6/1),
HANCOCK - Not much value on this participant at the likely odds of 2/1. MAYHEMINTHEPALACE - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance affairs in order to back him. MY ADDICTION - This colt hasn't had any promising efforts in short distance contests in the last couple months. Garnered a common speed figure in the last race in a $75,000 Optional Claiming race on October 6th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that rating.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 BIG TOBY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Can'tPickAWinner
10-15-2023, 08:36 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=ctd1015zm.htm&exp=10/17/2023&pds=CTD_-_10/15/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/15/2023;TRACK_CODE=CTD&SAP=FREEPICS)
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Century Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 72
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#5 KEEPMEINPOWER (ML=7/2)
#7 GRACEFUL SPIRIT (ML=20/1)
KEEPMEINPOWER - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jock/handler combination. I sense a pace scenario where the pace will fade, setting up a perfect situation for her late kick. GRACEFUL SPIRIT - I think the shorter trip will help this mare stay the trip. This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +999. The improved Equibase speed figures over the last 3 races is strong. Pozzo drops her in this affair conditioned properly and ready to go.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 QUEEN RHONDA (ML=5/2), #4 GOLDIE SOCKS (ML=3/1), #3 SOCIAL CUES (ML=4/1),
QUEEN RHONDA - This mount hasn't been near the victor at the finish lately. GOLDIE SOCKS - You figure that this horse is going to be first just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top frequently. Awfully tough to play any racer that just won a Maiden Claimer, then steps up to face winners. SOCIAL CUES - Tough to take this pony at the odds after the finish position (sixth) in the last race. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance contests recently. Unlikely to see her doing it this time either. Pedestrian speed fig last out at Century Mile at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 KEEPMEINPOWER on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:50 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
Albuquerque - Race 1
First Half Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta
Claiming $6,250 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $15,600 • Post: 1:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED). NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TAKEITTOTHEBANK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THOUGHTS OF GOLD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HEART TO BEAT: Jockey/Trainer combination win percent age is at least 30. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). ROCHESTER'S FINEST: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return o n investment is at least +20.
5
TAKEITTOTHEBANK
3/1
7/2
9
THOUGHTS OF GOLD
9/2
6/1
1
HEART TO BEAT
6/1
10/1
2
ROCHESTER'S FINEST
8/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
9
THOUGHTS OF GOLD
9
9/2
Front-runner
69
71
81.2
57.8
50.8
7
RIGHT TO SUE
7
10/1
Front-runner
68
64
60.0
59.8
52.3
1
HEART TO BEAT
1
6/1
Front-runner
71
70
54.4
54.4
44.4
2
ROCHESTER'S FINEST
2
8/1
Alternator/Front-runner
65
64
61.8
55.0
42.0
8
ATTILA THE STAR
8
7/2
Stalker
70
58
55.8
56.6
46.6
5
TAKEITTOTHEBANK
5
3/1
Alternator/Stalker
75
70
61.0
67.1
63.1
4
ENDALE ARCH
4
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
53
54
49.8
46.0
28.0
10
ROUGE SUNSET
10
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
71
54
70.0
47.2
34.2
6
AUTISM WARRIOR
6
12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72
67
57.4
50.0
41.0
3
W. WHITEHOUSE
3
25/1
Alternator/Non-contender
60
45
35.0
45.6
28.6
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:50 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings
Hastings - Race 8
Late Double / Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR:81 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 5:32P
(PLUS UP TO $5,500 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $3,000 2 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MAKEITORBREAKIT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the hig hest TrackMaster Power Rating. FRANKIE MACHINE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GORKY PARK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AVE'S IN COMMAND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
4
MAKEITORBREAKIT
2/1
5/1
6
FRANKIE MACHINE
5/2
6/1
5
GORKY PARK
8/1
6/1
3
AVE'S IN COMMAND
4/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
4
MAKEITORBREAKIT
4
2/1
Front-runner
83
83
87.8
73.4
68.4
7
DON WITH THE WIND
7
10/1
Front-runner
75
73
81.8
63.4
50.4
3
AVE'S IN COMMAND
3
4/1
Front-runner
80
78
70.2
61.0
49.0
6
FRANKIE MACHINE
6
5/2
Alternator/Front-runner
76
77
79.4
74.4
70.4
5
GORKY PARK
5
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
76
73
80.8
74.6
68.6
1
JUST MAKE BELIEVE
1
5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72
74
61.2
68.2
58.7
2
FOOT SOLDIER
2
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
80
74
38.3
58.7
53.7
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:50 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Woodbine - Race #5 - Post: 3:27pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $111,600 Class Rating: 82
Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#4 DRESDEN ROW (ML=3/1)
#9 SNIPER JACK (ML=9/2)
#5 COMPETITIVE TOUCH (ML=12/1)
DRESDEN ROW - Colt ran well at big odds when he made his first start October 1st. This colt's last rating notched on October 1st is number one in last race Equibase speed figures. SNIPER JACK - Taking this jockey/handler combination is a good choice. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here. COMPETITIVE TOUCH - I surely see favorable signs for this thoroughbred right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MIDNIGHT MASCOT (ML=2/1), #1 AMERICAN DECISION (ML=6/1), #7 SWIFT DELIVERY (ML=8/1),
MIDNIGHT MASCOT - Can't play this chalk horse off the long layoff. No accomplishments for this vulnerable equine in a short distance affair over the last two months tells me that this colt is in a thorny situation AMERICAN DECISION - In any race of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests lately. Showed very little in the last clash. Really don't see any hint of any betterment today. SWIFT DELIVERY - This colt hasn't had any positive outcomes in short distance affairs in the last couple of months. Hard to play any entrant to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance.
http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - DRESDEN ROW - Changing surface from the turf, at Woodbine, to the dirt today, this magnificent animal has a good chance to get his first victory.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 DRESDEN ROW on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:51 AM
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9200 Class Rating: 65
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR ALBERTA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 2 SWIFT SWALLOW 8/5
# 1 REBATE 7/5
# 4 CUVEE TEE 10/1
I think SWIFT SWALLOW is a strong choice. Looks very strong for the conditions of this affair today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races as of late. The Equibase Speed Figure of 56 from her last contest looks very good in here. Shows solid speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses in this race. REBATE - Ought to be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last race. Trainer has very solid win rate (18 percent) at this distance and surface. CUVEE TEE- Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this group of horses in this race. With a very good 52 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this race.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:51 AM
Handicapped by The Walker Group at KeenelandAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Stakes - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $350000 Class Rating: 105
FRANKLIN S. - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 1 CARAVEL 9/5
# 7 STAR GUEST (GB) 4/1
# 4 TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE) 6/1
CARAVEL looks to be a decent contender. She has been running well and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the strongest in this field. Cox has a solid win percentage with horses running in turf sprint races. Looks quite good to be up near the lead at the first call. STAR GUEST (GB) - Appleby has this filly racing well and is a very strong selection based on the very good Equibase Speed Figs earned in sprint races as of late. Could beat this field given the 106 speed figure posted in her last outing. TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE) - Ward has a strong win percent with horses racing in turf sprint races. Ward has her trained quite well to break swiftly out of the starting gate.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:51 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Santa Anita - Race #9 - Post: 4:30pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $63,000 Class Rating: 93
Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#7 SENSIBLE MOVE (ML=8/1)
#3 SHE'S A BIT SASSY (ML=5/1)
SENSIBLE MOVE - Had a dominant closing move last time around the track, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. SHE'S A BIT SASSY - Filly's last race was against tougher open company. She's in with easier 'state breds' today. This rider and trainer's equines have been generating a favorable ROI.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GOLDEN AGAIN (ML=3/1), #1 TIZZY TWISTER (ML=4/1), #5 I HAD THAT ONE TOO (ML=4/1),
GOLDEN AGAIN - If she goes off anywhere near the M/L odds of 3/1, I'll have to pass. TIZZY TWISTER - Morning line of 4/1 make this horse a pass by my examination. I HAD THAT ONE TOO - This animal hasn't been in the mix in either of her last two outings.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 SENSIBLE MOVE to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
7 with 3 with [1,4,9] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[3,7] with [3,7] with [1,4,6,9] with [1,4,6,9] with [1,4,6,9] Total Cost: $48
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:52 AM
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cumberland RunAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 6 - Post: 2:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$9000 - UNITED STATES HARNESS DRIVING CLUB NW $2,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR CLAIMING $5,000
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 4 POOF DADDY 7/5
# 2 MERITO HANOVER 8/5
# 8 WESTERN TYRANT 3/1
POOF DADDY gets the edge as our best wagering option in this outing. He has been battling sharply and the TrackMaster SRs are among the most favorable in the bunch. This gelding has been battling versus some of the most competitive company in this race within the recent past. Worth considering this time if only for the good TrackMaster speed fig recorded in the most recent contest. MERITO HANOVER - Pace numbers fit the bias well here at Cumberland Run, look for this one to get the win. A competitive class horse cannot be ignored. With an avg class figure of 80 all signs say this is the one to beat. WESTERN TYRANT - This race horse may have some hidden form, a ultimate prize would be a pleasant surprise.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:52 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 6
5
5
ANOTHER DAILY COPY
4/1
Myers, Hunter - 14
534.79
1
1
CAPTAINOFROCKNROLL
9/2
Ebersole, Luke - 9
532.67
6
6
DUVAL STREET
3/1
Lems, Chris - 11
514.36
2
2
JUST BOOKEM
4/1
Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 27
508.52
3
3
FATHER TED GB
4/1
Davis, Billy Jr - 15
507.22
7
7
COMMANDER BOB
25/1
Deaton, Tim - 6
498.62
4
4
BET ON ZETTE
6/1
Merriman, Aaron - 24
497.48
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:52 AM
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau CarletonAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 7 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$6800 - N/W $3750. LAST 5 A.E. CLAIMING $15000.
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 2 MAKE IT COME TRUE 2/1
# 3 VANILLA MALTED 8/5
# 4 MAJOR HILL 6/1
Hard not to back MAKE IT COME TRUE as the top pick in this contest. This solid standardbred may have some hidden form, a score would be a pleasant surprise. If performance in the last competition is representative, this horse will have a very really strong shot for this one. High last race speed rating. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the sulky one of the best drivers in win percentage the last 30 days. VANILLA MALTED - His 82 avg has this gelding among the top TrackMaster Speed Ratings for this race. Heads into this contest with competitive TrackMaster class statistics relative to the bunch - could be worth a shot. MAJOR HILL - Look for Tessier and this race horse to score in this event. Fantastic in the money percent for the trainer/horse duo. Berube is racking up the wins of late. Top notch win pct makes this contender our pick.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:53 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Shenandoah Downs
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 4
8
8
TAILS AWAY
10/1
Buford, Archie - 15
490.07
5
5
JOHN'S DREAM
4/1
Perry, Charles Jr - 20
475.44
4
4
CRUISE PATROL
3/1
Wisher, Adrian Jr - 14
473.94
3
3
SEA OF LIFE
4/1
Braden, Corey - 21
465.19
1
1
ETBAUER
2/1
Olsen, Cole - 14
463.13
6
6
IDEAL PERFECT TEN
10/1
Wagner, John - 13
447.67
2
2
MYSTERY DRAGON
10/1
Paquet, Fern Jr - 17
444.24
7
7
EL'S DISCO JOHNNY
10/1
Longo, Gerald - 14
427.72
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:53 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 10
9
9
POWER AND GRACE
2/1
Macdonald, Brett A - 17
491.69
5
5
EDEN ONTHEHILL
6/1
Ratchford, Todd - 6
485.26
4
4
ROYALTY BEER
4/1
Roy, Louis-Philippe - 17
485.22
8
8
SICARIO
9/1
Sorrie, Austin - 15
469.30
2
2
ANDY OVER
8/5
Hensley, Ed F - 27
468.07
1
1
THIRDTIMESTHEDREAM
8/1
Moore, Tyler - 9
466.99
7
7
THE FIXER
9/2
Cullen, Travis A - 26
464.65
3
3
NO TURNING BACK
8/1
Jones, Tyler S - 7
461.80
6
6
BUCKTOBER
3/1
Borth, Tyler J - 15
450.69
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:53 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 12
2
2
MELODRAMA
2/1
Huckabone-Miller, Dylan - 13
409.87
3
3
PAX HANOVER
3/1
Beckwith, Brett - 16
389.12
6
6
CAUGHT YA LOOKING
4/1
Cushing, Mitchell - 10
337.00
7
7
MAJOR TOM
5/1
Raia, Glenn - 0
321.48
5
5
BLUEBIRD MAGIC
20/1
Long, Chris - 11
302.35
4
4
SUM KINDA GOOD
15/1
Athearn, Matthew - 11
298.67
1
1
PRINCE SPEED
25/1
Cooper, Bruce - 0
284.26
8
8
DELTA WIN
12/1
Huckabone, Claude Jr - 6
242.50
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:53 AM
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Leamington RacewayAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 1 - Post: 1:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 52 - Purse:$4200 - N/W 1 RACE OR $5000 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 9 HELLO LIFE N/A
# 5 THE BOSSISCALLING 5/1
# 7 KELSEA IS MONEY 8/1
HELLO LIFE looks respectable to best this group. The number crunching team gives this standardbred a good chance to come home a winner, class rankings are tops in the race. THE BOSSISCALLING - Price fits this interesting entrant's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some terrific results when teaming up. He's performing in fine form, recording strong TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent pick. KELSEA IS MONEY - Change in medication (now going off Lasix) may be the key to a turnaround in today's gathering. Heads into this competition with great TrackMaster class numbers relative to the field of starters - take a good look.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:53 AM
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Shenandoah DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 14 - Post: 4:54 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 60 - Purse:$8000 - VIRGINIA BREEDERS FUND STAKE 1ST LEG FOR 2 YEAR OLD COLT AND GELDING PACERS. $2 WIN, PLACE & SHOW NOS. 3, 4 & 5 J. WAGNER TRAINS P. WAGNER OWNS
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 1 BGOING AWAY 8/1
# 5 CLOGGS FOR REAL 7/2
# 4 K J REAL DEAL 8/5
BGOING AWAY has a competitive shot to take this race and the potential win price justifies the long odds. Pace figures say this affair should shape up nicely for this gelding. Looking for a big effort. CLOGGS FOR REAL - With a 62 average class rating, this contender has one of the best class advantages in the group of horses. Wagner fits this fine animal's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some strong results when working with each other. K J REAL DEAL - This colt gets a boost with Braden in the bike. Has been making some profits in the last 30 days. The consortium gives this harness racer a very nice chance to win this one, class ratings are tops in the pack.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:54 AM
Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 15
Oct. 14, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 56% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $14,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-5
1
Magical Ways
M Franco
PLACE
6-1
3
Cheeky Tico
M Olver
SHOW
2-1
4
Union Lights
D Davis
WILD CARD
8-1
2
Charger
E Ruiz
ALTERNATE 1
3-5
1A
Gut Feeling
J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
5
Prince of Joy
R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #2 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
12-1
11
Typhoon Fury
J Castellano
PLACE
9-5
9
Irish Gent
I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW
9-2
12
Ocala Rocket
J Alvarado
WILD CARD
8-1
10
Dilger
M Franco
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
4
Street Earnings
K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
1
Won Team
J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-12 BOX, 12-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/11/12 BOX, 9/10/12 BOX
RACE #3 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
3
Suspended Campaign
I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE
7-2
6
Im Buzzy
D Davis
SHOW
7-2
7
Vegas Weekend
J Lezcano
WILD CARD
5-2
2
Sister Linda
J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1
3-1
4
Halo City
M Franco
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
1
Gringotts
T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
7
Happy Bob
M Franco
PLACE
3-1
8
Good Rapport
K Carmouche
SHOW
6-1
6
Proven Hope
D Davis
WILD CARD
4-1
2
Lucky Lucky Luke
R Silvera
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
5
Strong Light
R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Uncle Water Flow
T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX
RACE #5 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 BAD LARRY
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
8
Bad Larry
M Franco
PLACE
8-5
2
Woodside Warrior
D Davis
SHOW
3-1
5
Chalky Cat
E Ruiz
WILD CARD
15-1
1
Mr. Busta
K Davis
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
4
War Prince
T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
6
Majestic Arc
R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/8 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #6 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 PHELPSY
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
6
Phelpsy
M Franco
PLACE
7-5
4
Silo Ridge
I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW
6-1
5
Light the Way
J A Gomez
WILD CARD
15-1
7
Login Required
J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
8
Opportunity Set
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
3
Burton Way
I Castillo
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #7 $85,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
6
Lets Go Big Blue
J Lezcano
PLACE
6-1
4
Agent Creed
M Franco
SHOW
2-1
11
Cut the Cord
K Carmouche
WILD CARD
4-1
8
Ocala Dream
I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
3
Citizen K
J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
5
Straight Arrow
J Rendon
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX, 11-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/11 BOX, 4/8/11 BOX
RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 TEN CENT TOWN
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
6-1
4
Ten Cent Town
D Davis
PLACE
9-5
3
G Munning
M Franco
SHOW
7-2
1
General Banker
J Castellano
WILD CARD
5-2
5
Newport Bridge
J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1
10-1
2
My Last Mission
K Davis
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
6
Dr. Settles Dream
J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #9 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
5
Arisaema
J L Ortiz
PLACE
7-2
12
Bomb Squad
M Franco
SHOW
8-1
3
Jannie Mae
K Carmouche
WILD CARD
10-1
14
Lem Me Drink
J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
4
Pinstripepizzo
I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
9
Shoppingatbloomies
J Rendon
* EXACTA: 5-12 BOX, 12-3 BOX, 3-14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/12 BOX, 3/12/14 BOX
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:55 AM
Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 15
Oct. 14, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 DERRICK
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-5
9
Derrick
T Gaffalione
PLACE
7-2
1
Sunset Town
C A Torres
SHOW
6-1
3
Dreamwithinadream
L Saez
WILD CARD
5-1
2
Lots of Mischief
J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1
12-1
4
Airborne Elite
J A Torres
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
7
Dario
B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #2 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
6
Show Off
G Corrales
PLACE
5-2
1
Courbe
L Saez
SHOW
4-1
2
Riperton
C A Torres
WILD CARD
8-1
4
Peignoir
L Machado
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
3
Floored
R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
5
Umeboshi
A Achard
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #3 $20,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
6-1
8
Gormleyesque
W A Rodriguez
PLACE
8-5
4
Youre Avoiding Me
C J Hernandez
SHOW
8-1
10
Ship It
K J Asmussen
WILD CARD
10-1
6
Dogwoodsmilliejane
R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1
7-2
5
Yolanda Who
E Morales
ALTERNATE 2
15-1
9
Liams Lass
J McKee
* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/10 BOX, 4/6/10 BOX
RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 DESERT WOLF
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
1
Desert Wolf
F Geroux
PLACE
8-1
5
The Gatekeeper
C J Lanerie
SHOW
6-1
7
Exemplified
R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD
4-1
3
My Uncle Frank
C A Emigh
ALTERNATE 1
9-2
4
Honor Gold
B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
6
Jay Bird
T Heard
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #5 $140,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
6-1
9
Mischievous Rogue
L Machado
PLACE
8-1
14
Arrest Me Red
J R Velazquez
SHOW
12-1
8
Cloudy
V Cheminaud
WILD CARD
3-1
15
Miles Ahead
J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
1
Bodenheimer
L Wade
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
5
Mark of the Z
R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 9-14 BOX, 14-8 BOX, 8-15 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/14 BOX, 8/14/15 BOX
RACE #6 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
6-1
5
Ruby Queen
F Prat
PLACE
5-1
8
Sweet Sunshine
F Geroux
SHOW
9-2
14
Best of All
T Gaffalione
WILD CARD
8-1
7
Shilohs Mistress
J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1
15-1
6
Sweet Violet
C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
15
Money Works
R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-14 BOX, 14-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/14 BOX, 7/8/14 BOX
RACE #7 $350,000 STAKES
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-5
1
Caravel
T Gaffalione
PLACE
9-2
5
Bay Storm
F Geroux
SHOW
6-1
4
Twilight Gleaming
J R Velazquez
WILD CARD
5-1
2
Wakanaka
J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
7
Star Guest
L Saez
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
3
Train to Artemus
G Corrales
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
10-1
7
Mr Bob
L Saez
PLACE
4-1
4
Talkin Cash
T Gaffalione
SHOW
3-1
1
You Aint Poppn
R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD
2-1
3
Bourbon Bash
J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
5
Billy Jack
C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
8
Old Alliance
M Murrill
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #9 $120,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SABALENKA
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
9-2
4
Sabalenka
D Cannon
PLACE
7-2
1
R Calli Kim
T Gaffalione
SHOW
12-1
10
Bravo Kitten
F Geroux
WILD CARD
10-1
11
Malleymoo
F Prat
ALTERNATE 1
50-1
3
Lucys Cakes Fly
C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
7
Sand and Sea
R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/10 BOX, 1/10/11 BOX
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:56 AM
Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 15
Oct. 14, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $45,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
1
Jetovator
U Rispoli
PLACE
5-2
8
Exultation
J J Hernandez
SHOW
5-1
5
Rager
D A Herrera
WILD CARD
8-1
7
Redline
T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1
15-1
2
Lansdowne
E Payeras
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Cane Creek Road
K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX
RACE #2 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 GREENTEAZE
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
4
Greenteaze
A Alsagoor
PLACE
15-1
3
Ifuaintfirsturlast
J Torrealba
SHOW
6-1
1
Screaming Virginia
J D Lopez
WILD CARD
5-1
2
Sakura Blossom
H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
6
Little Lady Lou
T Baze
ALTERNATE 2
2-1
7
Into Yellowstone
D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #3 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
3-1
8
Beef Winslow
D A Herrera
PLACE
5-2
5
Mega Moon
J J Hernandez
SHOW
4-1
3
Single Track Mind
U Rispoli
WILD CARD
10-1
6
Touch of Zen
A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 1
5-1
1
Worse Read Sanchez
M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Rahm
M E Smith
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $12,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 TOP GUN TOMMY
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
8-5
4
Top Gun Tommy
U Rispoli
PLACE
4-1
5
Handsome Gary
K Frey
SHOW
5-2
3
Rookie Mistake
A Aguilar
WILD CARD
8-1
2
Big Swede
T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1
7-2
6
Molto Vivace
R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2
10-1
7
Blameless
E Payeras
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 KITTY KITANA
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
2-1
2
Kitty Kitana
J Bravo
PLACE
5-2
5
Gracelund Gray
J J Hernandez
SHOW
8-1
1
Very Scary
K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD
3-1
6
Lindas Gift
T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1
4-1
3
Wed
H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
4
Arina
U Rispoli
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #6 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-2
2
Bajan Bashert
J J Hernandez
PLACE
3-1
3
Magic Wanderer
J Torrealba
SHOW
5-2
5
Sand to Sea
R Gonzalez
WILD CARD
5-1
7
Rhyme Or Reason
D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1
3-1
6
Scary Fast Ride
A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2
12-1
1
Ryders Candy
K Frey
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 6:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
7-5
4
Kings River Knight
J J Hernandez
PLACE
9-5
1
Brickyard Ride
U Rispoli
SHOW
4-1
5
None Above the Law
J Bravo
WILD CARD
12-1
6
Lil Nas
H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
7
Johnny Podres
K Frey
ALTERNATE 2
20-1
2
Billys Bet
G Franco
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #8 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
3
Warrens Show Bizz
R A Vazquez
PLACE
5-2
7
Vulin
D A Herrera
SHOW
6-1
4
Boginskaya
K Frey
WILD CARD
5-1
10
Exclusive Joni
H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
6
Stylish Dress
A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2
5-1
2
Ipanema Girl
T Baze
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 4/7/10 BOX
RACE #9 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
4-1
1
Tizzy Twister
A Aguilar
PLACE
3-1
2
Golden Again
T J Pereira
SHOW
4-1
5
I Had That One Too
J J Hernandez
WILD CARD
5-1
3
Shes a Bit Sassy
U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1
8-1
6
Warrior Lady
M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2
6-1
4
Idessia
R Gonzalez
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #10 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
5-2
8
Mr. Leasure
R A Vazquez
PLACE
7-2
6
Concord Bridge
U Rispoli
SHOW
12-1
7
Ario
D A Herrera
WILD CARD
3-1
2
Lake Superior
J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1
6-1
1
Wynstock
K Frey
ALTERNATE 2
4-1
4
Malibu Rain
K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #11 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY
WIN
6-1
2
Candy On Top
G Franco
PLACE
5-2
1
Warrens Paradice
J J Hernandez
SHOW
3-1
3
Annies Hope
U Rispoli
WILD CARD
8-1
4
Summer Lake
R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1
15-1
5
Yvetts Surprise
T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2
8-1
7
Jessebear
D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:56 AM
Handicappers' Consensus for Sunday, October 15
KEENELAND
Scott Hazelton
Tom Leach
Jeremy Plonk
Caton Bredar
Kim Nelson
1
1 Sunset Town
9 Derrick
4 Airborne Elite
1 Sunset Town
7 Dario
9 Derrick
9 Derrick
7 Dario
2 Lots of Mischief
9 Derrick
2 Lots of Mischief
1 Sunset Town
9 Derrick
1 Sunset Town
8 Go Cats
2
1 Courbe
2 Riperton
3 Floored
6 Show Off
1 Courbe
2 Riperton
1 Courbe
6 Show Off
2 Riperton
6 Show Off
1 Courbe
2 Riperton
1 Courbe
6 Show Off
2 Riperton
3
5 Yolanda Who
2 Sunday Grace
8 Gormleyesque
2 Sunday Grace
4 You're Avoiding Me
5 Yolanda Who
2 Sunday Grace
4 You're Avoiding Me
5 Yolanda Who
2 Sunday Grace
5 Yolanda Who
4 You're Avoiding Me
5 Yolanda Who
4 You're Avoiding Me
10 Ship It
4
3 My Uncle Frank
1 Desert Wolf
4 Honor Gold
5 The Gatekeeper
4 Honor Gold
3 My Uncle Frank
1 Desert Wolf
4 Honor Gold
7 Exemplified
7 Exemplified
1 Desert Wolf
5 The Gatekeeper
3 My Uncle Frank
5 The Gatekeeper
1 Desert Wolf
5
8 Cloudy
4 Heaven Street
1 Bodenheimer
4 Heaven Street
8 Cloudy
6 Evan Sing
5 Mark of the Z
12 Go Bears Go (IRE)
2 Biz Biz Buzz
8 Cloudy
9 Mischievous Rogue
4 Heaven Street
10 Artemus Citylimits
6 Evan Sing
1 Bodenheimer
6
9 Happy Talk
7 Shiloh's Mistress
3 Grinning
8 Sweet Sunshine
11 Lite It Up Louie
2 Final Draft
8 Sweet Sunshine
6 Sweet Violet
2 Final Draft
2 Final Draft
8 Sweet Sunshine
9 Happy Talk
9 Happy Talk
6 Sweet Violet
8 Sweet Sunshine
7
1 Caravel
5 Bay Storm
7 Star Guest (GB)
1 Caravel
7 Star Guest (GB)
5 Bay Storm
1 Caravel
2 Wakanaka (IRE)
5 Bay Storm
1 Caravel
4 Twilight Gleaming (IRE)
2 Wakanaka (IRE)
1 Caravel
4 Twilight Gleaming (IRE)
7 Star Guest (GB)
8
3 Bourbon Bash
1 You Ain't Poppn
4 Talkin' Cash
6 Pensacola
4 Talkin' Cash
3 Bourbon Bash
4 Talkin' Cash
6 Pensacola
1 You Ain't Poppn
3 Bourbon Bash
4 Talkin' Cash
5 Billy Jack
5 Billy Jack
3 Bourbon Bash
4 Talkin' Cash
9
6 Good American (GB)
1 R Calli Kim
4 Sabalenka
1 R Calli Kim
12 Stir Crazy
6 Good American (GB)
10 Bravo Kitten
9 Amani's Image
12 Stir Crazy
1 R Calli Kim
2 Highland Grace
4 Sabalenka
1 R Calli Kim
6 Good American (GB)
10 Bravo Kitten
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 08:57 AM
SANTA ANITA AUTUMN MEETING : 10/15/23
1st post: 12:30 PM
Bob Mieszerski (25/$130.20)
Art Wilson (18/$133.20)
Terry Turrell (14/$60.40)
Eddie Wilson (24/$118.40)
Consensus* (23/$100.60)
1
Prince Lancelot Exultation Gypsy King
Exultation Jetovator Cane Creek Road
Cane Creek Road Exultation Jetovator
Prince Lancelot Redline Jetovator
Prince Lancelot (10) Exultation (9) Cane Creek Road (6)
2
Greenteaze Eleven Out of Ten Into Yellowstone
Greenteaze Screaming Virginia Sakura Blossom
Eleven Out of Ten Into Yellowstone Sakura Blossom
Greenteaze Into Yellowstone Sakura Blossom
Greenteaze (15) Eleven Out of Ten (&) Into Yellowstone (5)
3
Beef Winslow Mega Moon Single Track Mind
Beef Winslow Mega Moon Worse Read Sanchez
Worse Read Sanchez Big Swede Rookie Mistake
Mega Moon Beef Winslow Worse Read Sanchez
Beef Winslow (12) Mega Moon (9) Worse Read Sanchez (7)
4
Top Gun Tommy Handsome Gary Rookie Mistake
Molto Vivace Rookie Mistake Top Gun Tommy
Top Gun Tommy Big Swede Rookie Mistake
Top Gun Tommy Rookie Mistake Handsome Gary
Top Gun Tommy (16) Rookie Mistake (6) Molto Vivace (5)
5
Gracelund Gray Kitty Kitana Linda's Gift
Arina Kitty Kitana Wed
KITTY KITANA Wed Linda's Gift
Gracelund Gray Kitty Kitana Wed
Kitty Kitana (13) Gracelund Gray (10) Arina (5)
6
Magic Wanderer Sand to Sea Scary Fast Ride
Magic Wanderer Sand to Sea Bajan Bashert
Scary Fast Smile Sand to Sea Magic Wanderer
Bajan Bashert Magic Wanderer Rhyme Or Reason
Magic Wanderer (13) Bajan Bashert (6) Sand to Sea (6)
7
Kings River Knight Brickyard Ride None Above the Law
KINGS RIVER KNIGHT Brickyard Ride None Above the Law
None Above the Law Kings River Knight Brickyard Ride
Kings River Knight Lil Nas Brickyard Ride
Kings River Knight (19) None Above the Law (7)Brickyard Ride (6)
8
Exclusive Joni Yulin Warren's Show Bizz
Vulin Exclusive Joni Boginskaya
Vulin Warren's Show Bizz Boginskaya
Exclusive Joni Vulin Warren's Show Bizz
Vulin (14) Exclusive Joni (12) Warren's Show Bizz (4)
9
Golden Again I Had That One Too Idessia
I Had That One Too Golden Again Sensible Move
Idessia She's a Bit Sassy Tizzy Twister
I Had That One Too Tizzy Twister Golden Again
I Had That One Too (12) Golden Again (8) Idessia (6)
10
Lake Superior Malibu Rain Mr. Leasure
Malibu Rain Lake Superior Mr. Leasure
Malibu Rain Lake Superior Concord Bridge
Mr. Leasure Concord Bridge Ario
Malibu Rain (12) Lake Superior (9) Mr. Leasure (8)
11
KAYLAS JOY Warren's Paradice Annie's Hope
Candy On Top Warren's Paradice Jessebear
Warren's Paradice Annie's Hope Candy On Top
Warren's Paradice Annie's Hope Kaylas Joy
Warren's Paradice (14) Kayla's Joy (8) Candy On Top (6)
*Selections from Bob Mieszerski, Art Wilson, Terry Turrell and Eddie Wilson are combined in the consensus. A top choice receives five points (handicapper's capitalized best bet receives seven) a second choice two points and a third choice one. Numbers below handicapper's name reflect total wins and money won for the meet.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:00 AM
Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: New Orleans/Houston Under 42.5 Points
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:00 AM
Free play from Totals4UEarly Sunday Free Selection: Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars over 44 1/2
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:01 AM
Free play from #1 SportsEarly Sunday's Free Play: Miami Dolphins - 14
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:01 AM
Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Early Sunday FootballSelection From Lee
Minnesota -3
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:01 AM
Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Sunday Free Play
Baltimore//Tennessee under 42'
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:02 AM
Free play from Teyas SportsFREE PICK 10/15/23 NFL JACKSONVILLE -3 1/2
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:02 AM
Free play from Kenny TowersYour Free Pick for Sunday - Take Car/Ana OVER 6 goals
Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 8-8
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:02 AM
Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood
MLB Take NHL Tampa Bay -105
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:03 AM
Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, October 15, 2023
10/15 01:25 PM PT / 4:25 PM ET
NFL (273) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS (274) NEW YORK JETS
Take: (273) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Reason: Interconference battle as the NFC Philadelphia Eagles take on the AFC NY Jets. The Eagles bring a top 10 total defense into today's contest. The Jets were great last year on defense but have slipped to 22nd this year. The Jets do have the 14th ranked pass defense while the Eagles are 25th. The Eagles shine on the rush defense, ranked tops in the NFL allowing just 61.2 ypg on the season. The Eagles put their 5-0 record on the line here today at the Jets. They are coming off a win at the LA Rams, 23-14, with the game going under. The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers in the first quarter of the first game of the season. Zach Wilson has been ok, but nothing great. He has four TD's and five INT's. He has also thrown for over 200 yards just one time. With the Eagles top ranked rush defense, that will put a lot of pressure on Wilson on Sunday. The weather won't be as bad here at the Meadowlands as it will be in other parts of the East, but still may play some factor. The winds will be from 12 mph and gusting above that on Sunday. I don't see Wilson doing much and they surely won't run much against this Eagles defense. Your free play for Sunday is on the Eagles.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:03 AM
Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2023
NFL
262. Texans +1.5 (10 PT / 1 ET)
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:03 AM
Free play from Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: the New England/Las Vegas Game UNDER 41.5 Points
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:03 AM
Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday :Take PHILADELPHIA/NY JETS OVER the total of 42.5
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:03 AM
Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 1278-856 run Sun San Fran - 9 1/2
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:04 AM
Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Sunday: NEW ORLEANS/HOUSTON UNDER the total of 42.5
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:04 AM
Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for Sunday
Texas Rangers (Game One ALCS)
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:04 AM
Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SUNDAY!
CFB Detroit/Tampa Bay OVER the total of 42.5 pts!
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:05 AM
Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY: TEXAS/HOUSTON UNDER the total of 8.5 runs
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:05 AM
Free play from Atlantic SportsEarly Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Tampa Bay Lightning even
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:05 AM
Free play from Sharp BettorSharpBettor FREE Play SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2023
FREE
NFL
273. Eagles -6.5 (1:25 PT / 4:25 ET)
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:05 AM
Free play from Hawkeye SportsEarly Sunday's Free Pick: Las Vegas Aces - 2 1/2
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:07 AM
Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Early Sunday: Las Vegas Raiders - 3
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:08 AM
Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Sunday
Eagles/Jets Under
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:08 AM
Hunter Price
1* Free Pick on Titans+5.5
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:08 AM
Black Widow
1* Free Wiseguy Play on Ravens/Titans under 43
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:09 AM
Matt Fargo
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS+4 for our Sunday Free Play. Jacksonville is back home following a two-week stay in London where it won both games against the Falcons and Bills. Against Atlanta, the Jaguars won the yardage battle by only 13 total yards but benefitted from a 3-0 turnover margin that included a 61-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Last week, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot as they were the ones travelling prior to the game and Buffalo was coming off a big home win over Miami that had a lot of build up to it. Jacksonville is now 3-2 but it remains middle of the pack in EPA on both sides and comes in with a net EPA rank of No. 18. The Colts bounced back from their overtime loss against the Rams to defeat Tennessee last week as it used two fourth quarter field goals to seal the win. Quarterback Anthony Richardson had to leave the game once again and he has been put on the IR so he will miss at least four weeks, putting a halt to his promising start to his rookie season. Backup Gardner Minshew has played well coming off the bench twice and making one start as he has a 95.1 quarterback rating while completing 68.7 percent of his passes with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Jonathan Taylor returned last week and was eased back in so he and Zack Moss form a solid one-two punch in the backfield. The Colts are now 3-2 as well and possess a net EPA ranking of No. 16 and they are catching an overpriced line in what has the makings of a field goal game either way. Play (263) Indianapolis Colts
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:09 AM
ProSportsPicks
PSP's Data Driven 1* NFL Free Pick.
Saints-125
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. New Orleans are 6-3 in their last 9 games. Houston are 1-8 in their last 9 games at home.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:10 AM
Mike Lundin
Mike's Vikings/Bears Free Pick
The Chicago Bears are 5-0 to the over on the season, but it sure isn't because of their own ability to put points on the board. Sure, the Bears are coming off a 40-20 win at Washington, but their numbers through the first four weeks of the season were a lot worse. Here they'll take on a Vikings team that will have to do without their top playmaker Justin Jefferson, and I expect this game to go under the total.
2* FREE PICK ON UNDER 43.5 -106
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:10 AM
Timothy Black
1* Best Bet on Browns+10
No analysis provided.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:10 AM
Jimmy Boyd
1* Free Pick on Vikings-3 -107
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:11 AM
Jack Jones
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Chicago Bears +3
Both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings sit at 1-4 this season. But I like the direction and the mindset of the Bears right now more than that of the Vikings. The Bears didn't have many expectations this season, and they have responded well after and 0-3 start while getting embarrassed by the Kansas City Chiefs three weeks ago.
The Bears came back and took a 28-7 lead on the Denver Broncos the next week. Of course, they found a way to blow that lead in a game they dominated the box score. They outgained Denver 471 to 311, or by 160 total yards. Justin Fields had the key fumble that was returned for a TD in what was an otherwise flawless game for him.
The Bears could have folded after that loss on a short week and traveling to Washington. Instead, they put forth their best effort of the season in a 40-20 win as 6-point underdogs. The Bears had another huge offensive game racking up 451 total yards while outgaining Washington by 63 yards in the win. Fields now has 8 touchdown passes against only one interception the past two games.
The Bears have had great balance in their last two contests rushing for 171 yards and throwing for 300 against the Broncos while rushing for 178 and throwing for 273 against the Commanders. Now they face another poor defense here in the Minnesota Vikings, who allowed 259 rushing yards to the Eagles in the lone game they played against a potent rushing attack. The Bears have rushed for at least 116 yards in four of their five games this season, and now Fields is forming chemistry with his receivers, especially DJ Moore.
No question this Chicago defense has been poor up to this point. But injuries in the secondary have been a big reason why, and now reinforcements are on the way as they are expected to have a healthy Eddie Jackson, Jaylon Johnson and Terell Smith in the defensive backfield. While the Bears are getting healthier on defense, the Vikings are getting the injury bug at a bad time on offense.
WR Justin Jefferson went down with a hamstring injury against the Chiefs last week and has been put on injured reserve. You could argue Jefferson is worth more points to the spread than any other non-QB in the league. WR Jordan Addison is battling an ankle injury and listed as questionable. Not having Jefferson will severely limit Minnesota's passing attack, which is their bread and butter.
Also affecting Minnesota's passing attack is the weather forecast, which is calling for a 50% chance of rain and 17 MPH crosswinds at Soldier Field Sunday. The Vikings are going to be forced to try and move the football on the ground, and they have been held to 70 or fewer rushing yards in three of their five games this season. They only average 81 rushing yards per game. If Cousins and the offense get pass-happy, it's going to lead to turnovers in Chicago's favor. I'll gladly side with the better rushing team and the dual-threat QB in Fields given these weather conditions.
Minnesota went 13-4 last season while going a ridiculous 11-0 in one-score games. They were extremely lucky last year. The regression has hit hard in 2023 as they are 1-4 with all five games being decided by a single score. They realize their season may be over already, and it's going to be tough for them to get back up off the mat this week, especially after losing by 7 at home to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs last week. The Bears have extra time to prep for this game after playing last Thursday as well. Bet the Bears Sunday.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:11 AM
Jeff Alexander
1* NFL - Seahawks/Bengals FREE PICK on Bengals -3 +100
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:11 AM
Rocky Atkinson
Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 10-15-23
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (1:00 PM EST)
Play On: Indianapolis +4
The Indianapolis Colts travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Both teams enter with 3-2 overall records on the season. Indianapolis is averaging 131.2 yards per game on the ground this year. Indianapolis is 2-0 SU on the road this year where they are scoring 26.5 points per game. Jacksonville is 0-2 SU at home this year where they are getting beat by an average score of 27 to 13. Jacksonville is coming off back to back road games in London so they haven't been home in awhile. Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS last 5 games at home against an opponent off a SU dog win. Doug Pederson is 1-8 ATS last 9 games as a favorite against an opponent off a SU dog win. We'll recommend a small play on Indianapolis today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:12 AM
Brandon Lee
7* NFL Colts/Jaguars Free Pick
PLAY ON INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4
I'll take my chances with the Colts catching 4-points on the road against the Jaguars. Indy is going to be out for revenge after losing the prior meeting with Jacksonville back in Week 1. Colts ended up losing by a final score of 21-31, but it was much closer than the final would indicate. Indy had the lead going into the 4th quarter and were stopped on downs late with goal to go. Colts didn't have Jonathan Taylor or Zack Moss at running back. They will be a different quarterback as well, as Gardner Minshew fills in for the injured Anthony Richardson. While Richardson has a little more razzle dazzle to his game, I believe Minshew gives them a better chance to win now. He'll definitely be up for this game against the team who drafted him back in 2019. Minshew had a 37-11 TD-INT ratio in two seasons with the Jags before they traded him to the Eagles. I also think this is a brutal spot for Jacksonville coming off the huge high of upsetting the Bills last week and having to re-adjust to life back in the states after spending the last two weeks in London. Give me the Colts +4!
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:13 AM
#257 ASA FREE PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +3 over Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We played against Cincy last week and lost as they topped Arizona 34-20 as 3 point favorites. We’re still not convinced this team is back on track. One of their TD’s was a pick 6 late in the first half which gave them the lead heading into halftime when it looked like they would be trailing 14-10. The offense averaged only 4.8 YPP vs the Cards last week (Arizona averaged 5.2 YPP) but because of Arizona’s 3 turnovers the Bengals ran 76 plays compared to just 54 for the Cardinals. The Bengals were whipped in the trenches in that game allowing 6.5 YPC while Arizona gave up only 3.1 YPC. QB Burrow looked more healthy than he has been but still not 100%. Their offense is still a big time concern averaging only 4.2 YPP (32nd) and scoring only 16.6 PPG. While Cincy was playing back to back road games @ Tennessee and @ Arizona the last 2 weeks, Seattle was resting on their bye week. They were able to start getting healthy, especially on the offensive line, where LT Cross returns after missing 3 games along with RG Haynes. Seattle has won both of their road games this season @ Detroit and @ NYG and they currently rank 5th in the NFL in YPP differential at +0.75. The Bengals rank 32nd in YPP differential at -1.5 ahead of only the Giants. DVOA has Seattle ranked as the 8th best team in the NFL while the Bengals come in at 24th. The Hawks are 2nd in the NFL in sacks per game and top 8 in sack percentage so they should be able to put pressure on a still gimpy Joe Burrow. We like a rested and more healthy Seattle to have a great shot to win on the road. Take the points.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:13 AM
Totals Guru
Free Total Annihilator On Vikings vs Bears over 43.5
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:13 AM
Ray Monohan
Free Play: WAS/ATL OVER 42.5
The Atlanta Falcons won last week, breaking a two-game losing streak with a tight 21-19 victory against the Texans. The Washington Commanders, on the other hand, are coming off a tough loss to the Bears, getting beat 40-20 on Thursday night. This week in NFL action, it's the Commanders (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) against the Falcons (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS). The game is on Sunday, October 15th, 2023, at 1:00 PM (EST) in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA, and it'll be on CBS.
The Falcons are favored by -2.5 points, with a moneyline of WASH +120 and Dirty Birds -140, and the total score expected is 42.
Full analysis coming soon.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 5* FREE NFL O/U Play
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:15 AM
Joseph D'Amico
Sunday’s 1st FREE WINNER: Indianapolis Colts+4 -109
Game 263.
10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.
With Indy QB, Anthony Richardson sidelined, social media was in a buzz. Dismissing Gardner Minshew will be a costly error here. He is an able backup, for sure. Let’s not forget he spent two seasons with Jacksonville, and knows them well. Moreover, RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to have significantly more touches this week in his second game back. In the first rematch of the season, these two division rivals are both tied atop the AFC South at 3-2. The Colts dropped the earlier meeting at home, 31-21. But this matchup has some different factors. The Jaguars come off a huge win over the Bills last week in London. And from a handicapper’s point of view, are due for a big let down here. Especially because they have failed to cover both home games this season. Trending is the Colts covering three of their last four overall, including both as a visitor. Jacksonville is in a tough position, off the long trip back to the U.S. (after spending over two weeks there, the 5-hour time change will be an issue), in a sandwich spot, having to travel again right away to New Orleans in a meeting in only four days. Doing the math, it adds up to an ideal opportunity for the ‘dog here. Thank you.
Prediction: Colts 23, Jaguars 21
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:15 AM
Steve Janus
1* Free Sharp Play on Quilmes-117 (Soccer)
*All Soccer picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:15 AM
Sean Murphy
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' 41.5 (-107) between New England and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.
Logical thinking would lead many to believe that we're in for a defensive slugfest, or at least a sloppy offensive affair as the Patriots and Raiders do battle at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday afternoon. I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring contest as the Patriots look to finally take the lid off their offense and the Raiders attempt to take advantage of an injury-depleted New England defense. The Pats were shut out at home against an elite Saints defense last Sunday. Here, they'll take a considerable step down in class against the Raiders, who were barely tested by a punch-drunk Packers offense on Monday night. Las Vegas' defensive engine is DE Maxx Crosby but it's worth noting that he's been hampered by a knee injury. Speaking of injuries, New England is missing a number of key contributors on that side of the football including Matt Judon. The 'over' is a long-term 40-22 with the Raiders going up against AFC East opposition with those games totalling an average of 47.4 points. Take the over.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:16 AM
John Martin
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Patriots/Raiders UNDER 41.5 -105
The Patriots and Raiders have two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Patriots are scoring 11.0 points per game while averaging 4.6 yards per play this season. The Raiders are scoring 15.8 points per game while averaging 281 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. But both teams have been solid defensively. The Patriots are only allowing 298.4 yards per game and 4.8 per play. The Raiders are allowing 327 yards per game and 5.4 per play. These teams are familiar with one another with Josh McDaniels going up against his mentor in Bill Belichick. Familiarity favors the defenses. The Raiders are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games off a home win. The Patriots are 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games off a loss. The Patriots are 4-1 UNDER this season with 41 or fewer combined points in four of their five games. The Raiders are 4-1 UNDER this season with 41 or fewer combined points in four of their five games as well. Give me the UNDER.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:16 AM
Bobby Conn
1* Free Play on Eagles/Jets under 42.5 -107
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:16 AM
Mike Williams
1* on Rams-7 +100
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:16 AM
Kenny Walker
Free Pick on Cardinals+7 -115
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:17 AM
Ricky Tran
Ricky's 1* play on TB+3.5 -115
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- Tampa Bay are 7-1 in their last 8 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference North division.
- Detroit are 1-9 in their last 10 games played in October.
- Detroit are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Verdict: The value is on the home underdog.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:17 AM
Dave Price
ave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Detroit Lions -3 +100
The Key: The Detroit Lions are legit a Top 5 team in the NFL. But they are being priced like an average team. They were spread covering machines in the 2nd half last year. and they have opened 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this year. The Lions average 5.9 YPP on offense and only give up 4.9 YPP on defense. Compare that to the Bucs, which average 5.0 YPP on offense and allow 5.3 YPP on defense. The Lions are outgaining their opponents by 101 YPG, while the Bucs are getting outgained by 16 YPG. This is a short number for the Lions to be laying when you compare the one game the Bucs lost to the Eagles. The Eagles were 5-point favorites in that game and won 25-11, outgaining the Bucs 437 to 236 for the game. I view the Lions and Eagles as similar Top 5 teams. The Lions beat the Panthers 42-24 last week even without their top receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is expected to return this week. The Lions get a ton of pressure on defense without blitzing, and Baker Mayfield struggles against teams that get pressure without blitzing. He has been great against the blitz, but the Lions blitz at the second-lowest rate in the league. Take Detroit.
ConleyPicks
10-15-2023, 09:18 AM
Info Plays
1* FREE INFO PLAY on: Londrina +132 (Soccer)
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