Sunday 10/22/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:15 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase SpecialPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=eqd1022zf.pdf&exp=10/24/2023&pds=EQD_-_10/22/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/22/2023;TRACK_CODE=EQD&SAP=FREEPICS)

Equibase Special - Race 2

Leg 2 of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3

Stakes • 1 1/2 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 105 • Purse: $300,000 • Post: 4:12P

ROOD AND RIDDLE DOWAGER S. KEE - R7 - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Stalker. LOVELY PRINCESS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LOVELY PRINCESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TRANSIENT (GB): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PERSONAL BEST: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HENRIETTA TO PHAM: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.

8

LOVELY PRINCESS

8/1

5/1

9

TRANSIENT (GB)

3/1

5/1

5

PERSONAL BEST

4/1

6/1

1

HENRIETTA TOPHAM

20/1

10/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

3

VERGARA

3

9/5

Front-runner

104

97

73.8

92.4

82.9

8

LOVELY PRINCESS

8

8/1

Stalker

102

104

93.2

99.8

90.3

9

TRANSIENT (GB)

9

3/1

Stalker

101

95

89.6

96.8

91.8

5

PERSONAL BEST

5

4/1

Stalker

104

98

86.4

94.4

86.4

4

BE UP

4

20/1

Stalker

93

95

80.6

87.6

73.6

2

VIVA LA RED

2

30/1

Stalker

89

85

78.7

86.3

68.3

1

HENRIETTA TOPHAM

1

20/1

Trailer

105

106

86.8

98.6

93.1

7

LOVED REIKO

7

12/1

Trailer

91

95

77.0

89.0

75.0

6

ROMAGNA MIA (GB)

6

6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

101

95

54.0

87.2

81.7

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:15 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)PURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=la1022zf.pdf&exp=10/24/2023&pds=LA_-_10/22/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/22/2023;TRACK_CODE=LA&SAP=FREEPICS)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Early Double / $1 Pick Four $1 Place Pick All Starts Here Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)

Claiming $4,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 6:00P

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $3,200 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. POLLO D'ORO is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * POLLO D'ORO: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WATER'S FOR FIGHTN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Hor se has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.

9

POLLO D'ORO

6/1

3/1

4

WATER'S FOR FIGHTN

10/1

4/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

9

POLLO D'ORO

9

6/1

Front-runner

79

79

84.0

68.0

64.5

4

WATER'S FOR FIGHTN

4

10/1

Alternator/Front-runner

76

75

69.0

66.4

59.9

8

TRIBUNAL LOVE

8

8/1

Alternator/Front-runner

66

70

61.0

51.6

40.1

5

SEIGE THE DAY

5

8/1

Alternator/Front-runner

73

69

48.2

57.4

46.4

2

TRIED AGAIN

2

9/5

Alternator/Front-runner

77

77

0.0

0.0

0.0

3

OMAHA RUTSCH

3

20/1

Alternator/Stalker

72

61

49.0

59.0

48.5

1

HOLYJAZZ

1

6/1

Alternator/Stalker

78

68

45.0

66.6

61.6

7

BOOMER JUSTICE

7

7/2

Alternator/Non-contender

72

61

73.7

42.2

30.2

6

WILEY'S WONDER

6

10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

60

60

70.2

42.8

30.3

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:15 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=wrd1022zz.htm&exp=10/24/2023&pds=WRD_-_10/22/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/22/2023;TRACK_CODE=WRD&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $22500 Class Rating: 88

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 5 JESSA BIT OF CANDY 7/2

# 2 R U FREAL 5/1

# 1 KATCH THIS EAGLE 4/1

JESSA BIT OF CANDY looks like the bet in here. He must be given consideration given the competitive speed figures. Likely to see this animal to be close at the finish versus these mounts. With a very good 88 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this outing. R U FREAL - Will probably go to the lead and could never look back. Should be given consideration based on the very good Equibase speed fig put up in the last race. KATCH THIS EAGLE - Has to be considered versus this field displaying quite good numbers as of late and an average speed figure of 78 under similar conditions. Has been travelling admirably in races of this distance, going 3 for 15 under similar conditions.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=wo1022zm.htm&exp=10/24/2023&pds=WO_-_10/22/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/22/2023;TRACK_CODE=WO&SAP=FREEPICS)

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Woodbine - Race #6 - Post: 4:01pm - Stakes - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 101 Overskate S.

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 TOWN CRUISE (ML=6/1)
#4 MASON'S GAMBLE (ML=2/1)
#7 BANFF (ML=15/1)

TOWN CRUISE - A wise man taught me to play the lone speed horse. Take a look at this horse. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. Average class rating is tops in this bunch. I think that is a big edge for a race on the turf. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Woodbine. Could add another win in this event. MASON'S GAMBLE - I expect a lot from this magnificent animal. His speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this field. Have to make this horse a solid contender; he comes off a strong outing on September 30th. That 101 fig this horse garnered in his last clash tells me he's a key player in today's event. Last time out on the sod, this equine was solid. Anything close right here, and this one should win. BANFF - You always have to be on the patrol for revenue generating jockey/conditioner teams; we have one right here. Drexler has a very great win pct in grass sprints. This gelding should be conditioned properly and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PATCHES O'HOULIHAN (ML=6/5),

PATCHES O'HOULIHAN - Don't believe this pony will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 TOWN CRUISE is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[4,5,7] with [4,5,7] with [3,4,5,7,8] with [3,4,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=baq1022zm.htm&exp=10/24/2023&pds=BAQ_-_10/22/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/22/2023;TRACK_CODE=BAQ&SAP=FREEPICS)

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belmont at the Big A - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 RETAIL MAN (ML=2/1)

RETAIL MAN - It looks like Carmouche had to know this colt on October 4th when riding him for the first time. Back aboard again today. I really like that recent effort on October 4th at Belmont at the Big A where he ended up second. This horse brings in a lot of dough per race around the track. At the top in this event. The last figure of 66 is the best last race speed rating in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GOLDFIRE (ML=7/2), #2 ROB THE BANK (ML=4/1), #4 DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY (ML=6/1),

GOLDFIRE - In all probability won't make much of a mark today. ROB THE BANK - This colt hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance contests. Tough to bet on him in this race. This questionable contender ran a common speed rating last out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's event running that number. DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY - 6/1 is not worth it for any animal in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event recently.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - RETAIL MAN - This horse has lone early speed. Keep that in the forefront of your mind when you place your bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #7 RETAIL MAN to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with 3

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase SpecialPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=eqz1022zz.htm&exp=10/24/2023&pds=EQZ_-_10/22/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/22/2023;TRACK_CODE=EQZ&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SA - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 102

SA - R7 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 8 DON'T SWEAR DAVE 3/1

# 5 DEVIL MOON 4/1

# 7 TIGERHON (FR) 5/1

DON'T SWEAR DAVE has a formidable shot to take this race. He has been racing soundly recently while recording solid speed figs. May see a reversal of fortune with blinkers going on for this event. He has solid class ratings, averaging 106, and has to be given a shot in this race. DEVIL MOON - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Rispoli should have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. Rispoli will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out sharply for this event. TIGERHON (FR) - Has been running solidly and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance. This animal has a excellent win percent in turf sprints.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at AlbuquerqueAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Futurity - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 105

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, DOWNS AT ALBUQUERQUE - LA FIESTA FUTURITY - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS, WHICH QUALIFIED FOR THE FINALS OF THE 2023 DOWNS AT ALBUQUERQUE- LA FIESTA FUTURITY. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. (A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 1 IRISH SEIS 9/2

# 7 TEMPTING BARBIE 7/2

# 3 RUNNING TO THE MOON 12/1

IRISH SEIS is my choice. This animal has a terrific win percentage in shorts. Must be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last contest. He has earned formidable numbers under today's conditions and should fare well against this group.TEMPTING BARBIE - Will probably compete quite well in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. Overall the speed figures of this animal look solid in this race. RUNNING TO THE MOON - This filly obviously likes the distance, going 3 for 5 in her races recently. Looks respectable versus this field and ought to be one of the early speedsters.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race TrackAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 57

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 22 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. 3# A CLASF.$4,000 Y DEBTS ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE$4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 10 VICTORIA'S DANCE 7/2

# 3 BERBERSLILBRIEBRIE 10/1

# 2 SUNTANA 2/1

VICTORIA'S DANCE looks very good to best this field. Shows formidable Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals. This mare has a strong win percentage in dirt sprint races. Strong rider with trainer figures make this horse a strong pick. BERBERSLILBRIEBRIE - Looks decent for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races lately. Has solid early speed and should fare strongly versus this group of animals. SUNTANA - Is worth a look and may be a bet - strong speed figs (55 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this horse look very strong in this contest.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:17 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Keeneland

Keeneland - Race 6

Double-Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta-Pick 3-Pick 4 ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 min)

Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 106 •Purse: $110,000 • Post: 3:40P

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * LEADING CONTENDER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MOREAU: Horse's win percentage at today's di stance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. BLACK RAIN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ESCAPOLOGIST: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GRAND AS PEN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.

4

LEADING CONTENDER

7/5

9/2

1

MOREAU

5/1

7/1

7

BLACK RAIN

2/1

8/1

5

ESCAPOLOGIST

10/1

8/1

2

GRAND ASPEN

6/1

10/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

1

MOREAU

1

5/1

Stalker

92

90

79.8

86.0

80.0

6

SEEKING UNITY

6

30/1

Stalker

92

85

73.8

83.8

73.8

7

BLACK RAIN

7

2/1

Stalker

85

95

65.4

90.1

84.1

2

GRAND ASPEN

2

6/1

Alternator/Stalker

96

94

71.1

48.3

40.3

4

LEADING CONTENDER

4

7/5

Trailer

94

98

78.8

93.7

90.7

5

ESCAPOLOGIST

5

10/1

Trailer

95

94

69.2

83.6

74.6

3

REDEEMER

3

12/1

Trailer

85

86

58.7

78.9

65.9

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:17 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Keeneland - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $69,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 T B TWELVE ALWAYS (ML=6/1)
#2 MIDNITE LUMBERJACK (ML=9/2)

T B TWELVE ALWAYS - Taking a class drop in Equibase class figure points from his September 24th race at Gulfstream Park. Based on that element, I will give this animal the advantage. A wise man taught me to play the lone speed horse. Take a look at this horse. Earnings per race is something that I feel can be a valuable handicapping aspect. This horse is ranked at the top in this bunch. You have to like that latest race speed figure, 70, which is the top most recent race speed figure of this group. This colt is in excellent physical condition right now. Finished third in the last race and comes back quickly. MIDNITE LUMBERJACK - I like to invest in this angle, a horse coming back off a sharp contest within the last 30 days. The jock/conditioner twosome of Saez and Arnold has a strong ROI together. Arnold moves this colt to the main track today. Look for a chance at a big improvement from the most recent grass race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TOWN HALL (ML=2/1), #4 TITLE CONTENDER (ML=3/1), #1 STONE HARBOR (ML=8/1),

TOWN HALL - Never really did much at all in the last race on August 5th. Hard to bet on in today's event. TITLE CONTENDER - The seventh place finish in the last event was not that great. Garnered a mediocre fig last race out in a Maiden Special race on Sep 22nd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that number.STONE HARBOR - That was merely not a very good display in the last race. Finished eleventh in his most recent effort with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #7 T B TWELVE ALWAYS on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:17 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cumberland RunAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 5 - Post: 2:16 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$12500 - MINI SERIES 6 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS ALL ENTRIES PURSUANT TO 810 KAR

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 5 MANAGAINSTCRIME 7/2

# 6 ARSON 2/1

# 4 KISSINCAPTAIN 10/1

Feel pretty confident putting cash down on MANAGAINSTCRIME. The handicapping team knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This solid standardbred will unlock our way to a nice trip to the winner's circle. With a 75 avg class stat, this solid standardbred has one of the best class advantages in the bunch. ARSON - Take a look at this harness racer's average speed ranking of 75 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a really good bet. Is a bang-up choice given the 75 speed figure from his most recent contest. KISSINCAPTAIN - The 74 avg class number may give this colt a distinct advantage in the group of animals. Performing soundly, recorded a very compelling TrackMaster SR in his last contest (74).

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:18 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Leamington Raceway

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 10

3
3
HOWMAC SABRINA
3/1
Rooney, Garrett L - 36
360.62

5
5
NASSAU HANOVER
2/1
Doyle, Robert B - 8
354.72

7
7
JAYS N TIGERS
10/1
Moore, Andy C - 8
353.50

2
2
TJ SPITFIRE
5/1
Wray, Scott A - 22
352.74

4
4
ONIMPULSE
6/1
Clements, Daniel W - 19
345.79

1
1
DISTINCTIV SEAN
8/5
Hahn, Jonathan - 8
339.72

6
6
PUTYOURBETTDOWN
4/1
Steward, Nicholas - 18
326.14

8
AE
EINHORN
N/A
Wray, Scott A - 22
325.87

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:18 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's PhiladelphiaAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 12 - Post: 4:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$9900 - A.H.D.C. PACE DIVISION #2

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 6 AMERICAN CHROME 2/1

# 8 NEEDLESS TO SAY 20/1

# 7 WESTERN BAYAMA 5/1

Hard not to favor AMERICAN CHROME as the top choice today. Can't pass over based on TrackMaster SRs which have been terrific (84 avg) recently. Has a very strong shot in this event, if he can perform to his back class. This race horse and Glasser have some sort of connection going. In the money statistic for this duet is high. NEEDLESS TO SAY - This contest could be controlled by this gelding. Just one look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. The trainer Wyatt has a way with this gelding, regularly cashing in their outings. WESTERN BAYAMA - That 77 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent competition puts this standardbred in the mix in this contest.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:18 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 3

6
6
JEAN'S ACTION
12/1
Devaux, Jim - 19
446.57

7
7
YO CHEYENNE
10/1
Dobson, Billy - 13
443.14

5
5
CREED HANOVER
6/1
Beckwith, Brett - 16
438.34

1
1
GRAND SLAM HERO
9/2
Huckabone-Miller, Dylan - 12
426.05

3
3
ACKLES HANOVER
9/5
Hennessey, Wally - 17
410.97

4
4
MULTINATIONAL
8/1
Derue, Jordan - 16
393.33

2
2
SEVENATCHI
3/1
Randall, Jay - 18
379.21

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:18 AM

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:18 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 10

1
1
D A JIMINY CRICKET
2/1
Haughan, Anthony P - 10
406.56

10
AE
ONYX BOVINO
N/A
Harris, J Bradley - 14
397.19

4
4
MONEY ON THE BEACH
10/1
Sorrie, Austin - 14
362.82

9
9
WHEN URHOT URHOT
12/1
Brown, Beau M - 6
345.25

7
7
DANCELIKE EHSKIPPR
6/1
Coulter, Scott - 14
341.27

6
6
COUNTRY MOUSE
8/1
Henry, Travis J - 18
337.14

8
8
ID IMAGINE
4/1
Ryan, Jason D - 14
325.93

5
5
D A LUNCHBOX
6/1
Cullen, Travis A - 26
321.29

2
2
NOVA SCOTIA STRONG
8/5
Moore, Tyler - 10
315.21

3
3
HANK THE HUNK
8/1
Small, Larry J - 11
293.06

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:18 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Shenandoah DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 9 - Post: 3:24 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6250 - WINNERS 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 5 ROCK'S IMAGE 8/5

# 4 KID DID IT 6/1

# 2 MIRACLEPOWERFULL 5/1

ROCK'S IMAGE will have you running to the cashier's window today. Can't pass over based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been fantastic (78 avg) recently. Worth considering in this one if only for the really good speed figure achieved in the last contest. With Buford in the bike, watch out for this race horse to get the trip to the winner's circle. KID DID IT - Worth considering here based on the rankings in the speed figure department alone. Positively the class of the pack with an average rating of 79. A nice pick. MIRACLEPOWERFULL - With a really good 70 TrackMaster speed fig last time out, will very likely be a factor in this gathering.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:19 AM

Handicappers' Consensus for Sunday, October 22KEENELAND

Scott Hazelton
Tom Leach
Jeremy Plonk
Caton Bredar
Kim Nelson

1
6 Town Hall
4 Title Contender
2 Midnite Lumberjack
6 Town Hall
4 Title Contender
8 Tis Charming
4 Title Contender
5 This Time Blue
6 Town Hall
4 Title Contender
7 T B Twelve Always
6 Town Hall
2 Midnite Lumberjack
6 Town Hall
7 T B Twelve Always

2
2 Medaglia Forever
1 Sassy Walker
4 Flashy Lass
2 Medaglia Forever
4 Flashy Lass
1 Sassy Walker
5 Colette's Joy
4 Flashy Lass
2 Medaglia Forever
5 Colette's Joy
4 Flashy Lass
2 Medaglia Forever
7 Misintention
2 Medaglia Forever
4 Flashy Lass

3
3 Ethical Judgement
1 Koufax
5 Allege
1 Koufax
3 Ethical Judgement
2 Derby Code
3 Ethical Judgement
4 Devil Vision
2 Derby Code
6 The Reds
3 Ethical Judgement
5 Allege
5 Allege
6 The Reds
3 Ethical Judgement

4
10 Mrs. Speaker
1 My Best Day Ever
7 Belle of the Ball
1 My Best Day Ever
9 Teshima
7 Belle of the Ball
9 Teshima
7 Belle of the Ball
10 Mrs. Speaker
7 Belle of the Ball
1 My Best Day Ever
2 Birdie Rose
5 Soulful Tara
7 Belle of the Ball
1 My Best Day Ever

5
11 Lady Goldstart
9 Goin' Good
1 Top Gun Girl
2 Carimba
1 Top Gun Girl
9 Goin' Good
8 Querobin Dourada
11 Lady Goldstart
9 Goin' Good
2 Carimba
9 Goin' Good
11 Lady Goldstart
2 Carimba
1 Top Gun Girl
11 Lady Goldstart

6
1 Moreau
7 Black Rain
6 Seeking Unity
2 Grand Aspen
4 Leading Contender
7 Black Rain
7 Black Rain
4 Leading Contender
3 Redeemer
7 Black Rain
4 Leading Contender
3 Redeemer
7 Black Rain
4 Leading Contender
2 Grand Aspen

7
3 Vergara
9 Transient (GB)
4 Be Up
6 Romagna Mia (GB)
5 Personal Best
8 Lovely Princess
9 Transient (GB)
3 Vergara
6 Romagna Mia (GB)
8 Lovely Princess
1 Henrietta Topham
9 Transient (GB)
5 Personal Best
3 Vergara
9 Transient (GB)

8
11 Agoo
1 Phantom Speed
2 Legalize
7 Ethan Energy
6 Skelly Road
5 Mystik Dan
6 Skelly Road
7 Ethan Energy
11 Agoo
11 Agoo
7 Ethan Energy
2 Legalize
1 Phantom Speed
11 Agoo
7 Ethan Energy

9
10 Get Twisted
5 Just a Care (IRE)
9 Empire of My Own
6 All I Want Is You
5 Just a Care (IRE)
3 Queen of the Mud (IRE)
3 Queen of the Mud (IRE)
5 Just a Care (IRE)
2 Hurricane Debbie
5 Just a Care (IRE)
12 Firing Bullets
3 Queen of the Mud (IRE)
13 My Sweet Affair
5 Just a Care (IRE)
10 Get Twisted

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:19 AM

Scott HazeltonHappy Sunday at Keeneland!

1st Race
6-4-2

#6 Town Hall drops in class after one race and looms the one to beat because of it. #4 Title Contender also drops as does #2 Midnite Lumberjack.

2nd Race
2-1-4

#2 Medaglia Forever has come close lately and to me this race looks like she’s ready to graduate and pick up her first win, she’s found the right group. #1 Sassy Walker changes things up and goes two turns for the first time in her career, could move forward because of it. #4 Flashy Lass takes blinkers off and has run a recent race that was an improved effort.

3rd Race
3-1-5

#3 Ethical Judgement drops in class and deserves a big look today because of it. #1 Koufax won his last race against lesser, but did so easily. #5 Allege is better at these longer distances. Have to respect for that reason alone.

4th Race
10-1-7

#10 Mrs. Speaker finds the right group to win her first race today. #1 My Best Day Ever drops in class and gets Saez in the saddle. Both reasons to like. #7 Belle of the Ball also class drops and should be respected as much as anyone in here.

5th Race
11-9-1

#11 Lady Goldstart really hasn’t missed a beat in the last several races consistently showing up with good runs and fast enough to clear and go from the outside. #9 Goin’ Good is more than capable of a win and should stalk off the pace today. #1 Top Gun Girl will be fast from the inside, its just a case of if she will want a bit of give in the ground today that will be likely

6th Race
1-7-6

#1 Moreau is capable of holding a good position to the first wire finish line today and gets Johnny Velasquez in the saddle. #7 Black Rain should be aggressively ridden from the outside and make a good showing based on recent runs. #6 Seeking Unity is better at two turns and she gets that shot today.

7th Race
3-9-4

#3 Vergara is a bit of a standout in my opinion in the G3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes. She can control the race early and should outclass this group. #9 Transient will come with a late run that should get her in the top 3 at least. #4 Be Up has run some of her best races lately because of added distance…might have something to say in the end.

8th Race
11-1-2

#11 Agoo ran well on debut and should be respected. It’ll be interesting to see how this horse is bet. I’m in on this runner in start 2 of his career. #1 Phantom Speed comes from a family of 2 year old winners. Should be ready to roll today, a son of Arrogate and a $700k Keeneland Sale Grad for Pin Oak Stud. #2 Legalize is also bred to win early.

9th Race
10-5-9

#10 Get Twisted won on debut at 91-1 and did so very easily. Should be respected this time and might be a really good horse. #5 Just a Care should be able to close on this turf today. #9 Empire of My Own will be a pace setter and could make it all the way today versus this group.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:20 AM

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 22, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Filly and mare turf marathoners are center stage in Race 7, the Grade 3 $300,000 Dowager Stakes. Among the stars are Kentucky Downs’ Ladies Marathon winner Vergara. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 5,7,9.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Sunny skies with a forecasted high of 62 degrees is in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Maiden claiming 2-year-olds open the pick 5 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. These races are historically very formful with favorites winning more than 42% over the years on dirt. Experienced runners own 26 of the 30 wins. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, as well as 14 of the 30 2YO MCL dirt routes in the database, so give extra looks to Title Contender, This Time Blue and Tis Charming. Brad Cox (5) and Kenny McPeek (4) have the most 2YO MCL dirt route wins at Kee and are repped here by two each – Title Contender & Town Hall as well as Footprint & Tis Charming, respectively.

2nd Race
Elder maiden special weight runners route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the early pick 4. In 21 prior elder MSW routes on dirt in Fall Meets, Churchill preppers have 11 wins. Sassy Walker, Collette’s Joy, Perceptive and Misintention rep CD here. All 21 winners were 8-1 or less odds with an average winner at 7-2, so don’t expect a major upset. Turf-to-dirt moves have had some success with 6 victories of the 21 like Collette’s Joy and Sassy Walker attempt, though Sassy Walker tries to buck the trend of stretch-out sprinters winning these races (only 3 of 21 went to such moves). Stagflation runs back second time at the meet on a 14-day layoff; note a similar race to this was won in 2020 off a 10-day Fall Meet run-back.

3rd Race
Upper-level $50,000 open claimers square off at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Favorites are 11-23 in claiming races at the current meet (16-23 in the exacta) after Saturday’s opener. We’ve had 18 such dirt claimers for $50K or higher in open conditions in Fall Meets with very few discernible trends appearing. The other unique twist here is the 1-1/8 miles distance.There’s only been 1 claimer above open $20K level on the dirt in Fall Meets at this trip. At any claiming level, there have been 23 such 9F dirt races in Fall Meets and only 4 winners closed from more than 5 lengths back at the half-mile point to win. A slower pace usually means horses up front have a better shot. Use more traditional handicapping here as Ethical Judgement is a course winner and runs to good local pedigree, drops in class and has top rider Tyler Gaffalione as a very logical player. Devil Vision won at this class level in Fall 2022 and certainly fits as well.

4th Race
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, so give extra looks to My Best Day Ever, Soulful Tara, Chanel Point and Mrs. Speaker. Six of 8 MCL races this meet in the sprint ranks have been won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. The average winner in all Fall Meets on dirt at 6F is just .60 lengths behind at that juncture; think speed. Teshima made the lead here sprinting against slightly tougher when a good third in the Spring Meet. She should contend for the front along with My Best Day Ever, a daughter of Liam’s Map, who has sired a couple of maiden dirt winners at the current meet.

5th Race
Turf sprint allowance runners kick off today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 in what is also the swing race in the early and late pick 5. Five of the first 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Querobin Dourada as the only KD prepper. She’s also a deep closer in a race loaded with speed and a race that’s profiling to late runs at the meet. I love this play. Top Gun Girl must be respected for Wesley Ward, a winner of 46 Kee turf sprints in our database (no other trainer more than 8). Goin’ Good is stakes-placed here as a turf sprinter in the ’22 Spring Giant’s Causeway, a race Querobin Dourada was runner-up in this past Spring Meet. Lady Goldstart pairs with top Kee turf sprint jockey Joel Rosario, a rider whose late style should suit this race shape.

6th Race
The late pick 4 starts with an entry-level (N1X) allowance at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. We’ve had 15 allowance races on dirt this current Fall Meet with Saratoga and Churchill preppers each winning 5. Favorites have 6 wins with average win odds at 9-2. That’s right about where you would expect. Among the 6 such route races, only 1 real closer has scored with an average winner 1-1/2 lengths back after the first half-mile. Chad Brown has a pair of dirt ALW wins so far this meet and can add a third with Leading Contender. Note that runner’s runner-up last time came against Film Star, a next-out ALW winner who would then run second in the Woodward Stakes. Todd Pletcher won a similar race to this earlier in the meet with Courbe and takes two shots here with Grand Aspen and Black Rain, the latter most appealing to my eye.

7th Race
The featured Dowager Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on turf is middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. There are 17 editions of the Dowager in our database with 16 of the 17 winners formful at 8-1 or less, including 9-17 favorites. Closers are strong here historically with an average winner 5 lengths back after the first half-mile and only 2 winners coming on the front end. Look for horses who prepped at 1-1/4 miles or longer as they account for 12 of the 17 winners. Kentucky Downs (4) and Saratoga (4) have split the winners, but combined account for just over half of the scores). Trainer Graham Motion won this race in 2015 and 2020 and sends out both Vergara and Romagna Mia. I love to pedigree shop stamina in these 12F turf routes, so Vergara (by strong Kee turf sire Noble Mission), Be Up (a grandson of Kee turf marathon ace producer Dynaformer), Romagna Mia (by Mastercraftsman) and Transient (by Sea the Stars) all bring appeal. Note Lovely Princess scratched from Saturday’s Race 8 allowance to run in this spot.

8th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters dash 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. Favorites are 5-12 at the current meet after the chalk won Saturday (only 1 winner has topped 6-1 odds). Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 3 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. Saturday’s 2YO MSW win on dirt by Brad Cox was his third of meet, leading all trainers (Wesley Ward has 2). Cox tries for a fourth with Ethan Energy, a first-timer. Among experienced foes, Agoo was a debut runner-up at Churchill to Stretch Ride, who already returned at this Kee meet for Dale Romans to win in allowance company. Steve Asmussen already had a big-time MSW debut winner this meet named Booth and could have a good one in Skelly Road. If Armando Hernandez, who has popped 3 winners at the meet ala superman from Illnois, gets King Anthony in from the also-eligible list, you have to consider.

9th Race
The finale is a turf sprint allowance and wraps up the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Five of the first 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Proud Mary, Jennifer My Love and Dulcia. Wesley Ward is bound to bust out in these turf sprints soon enough with his record 46 such wins at Kee (no other trainer more than 8). He’s got Hurricane Debbie. Power posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge at strong prices in these full-field turf sprints at Keeneland, so Queen of the Mud, Corner Kick and Just a Care are drawn beautifully, barring scratches. Just A Care’s trainer Rusty Arnold is the track’s top turf sprint conditioner not named Ward.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:20 AM

Caton BredarComments for Keeneland Sunday Oct 22

1st Race
Locked in a tight battle for leading trainer honors, Brad Cox will try to make the most of the remaining days of the meet starting here in the opener with 4-Title Contender and 6-Town Hall. The former, a son of Tapit, exits maiden special weight company and stretches out to two turns with Flavian Prat. Look for him to improve on the drop for a trainer who excels in these situations. Tow track in tougher company and appears Hall adds blinkers and exits what appears to be a key race where the winner, West Saratoga went on to win the Iroquois, the runner up Generous Tipper won his next start and was third in the Futurity and the third place finisher Django recently finished second at Keeneland in a good effort. A little more one paced than his stablemate, the colt nevertheless has been working very well and wouldn't surprise. 7-T B Twelve Always debuted on a sloppy track and also gets class relief. Look for him to be close to the pace early and possibly around for a share at the wire.

2nd Race
5-Colette's Joy leads a good group of maiden fillies going 1-1/16 miles. The filly moves turf to dirt and was a closing third going a mile at Del Mar over the summer. 4-Flashy Lass showed speed before tiring in a one mile Ellis allowance. The Brad Cox charge takes the blinkers off and by Street Sense, is definitely bred for more distance. 2-Medaglia Forever was third back in June at Ellis and seems like the truest route horse in the field. Rested since June, she can should get a nice stalking trip under Louis Saez. 7-Misintention is a long shot with a chance as the improving filly tries two turns on dirt for the first time.

3rd Race
6-The Reds makes his third start off a layoff and returns to the dirt where he was claimed by Joe Sharp start before last. In that one the gelding finished and even fourth behind an exceptionally tough group that included the highly talented Breeders' Cup bound Bright Future. Definitely gets some class relief, and picking up Saez to ride is definitely a plus. 3-Ethical Judgement drops to an all time low and has some back class. The 5-year-old has run well at Keeneland and the Brendan Walsh-Tyler Gaffalione combo is a strong one. 5-Allege should sit close to what's likely to be a soft pace. The 6-year-old was second at this $50k claiming level last out and races off the claim for his new connections.

4th Race
7-Belle of the Ball is one of the faster runners in this maiden claimer, and the filly exits better company. Away since January, the Flatter filly moves off the synthetic back to her preferred surface (dirt) and she's been competitive with better at a variety of tracks. 1-My Best Day Ever draws the rail and looks to improve in her second career start. Tricky post, but the daughter of Liam's Map vied for the lead in her debut before fading. She should carry her speed longer with easier company here. 2-Birdie Rose is one of the more experienced runners in the group and she has a second to her credit against tougher.

5th Race
While there's potentially a lot of early speed in this wide open allowance, 2-Carimba has shown the ability to both lead or stalk and pounce. On raw speed, she's a bit faster than any of her rivals and her versatility makes her the one to beat. 9-Goin Good could get the garden spot, sitting just off the early leaders. Knocking on the door against similar, she hails from a very strong sprint family for Klein Racing and trainer Brad Cox. 11-Lady Goldstart is another with natural speed but also the ability to stalk and pounce.

6th Race
Todd Pletcher, tied with several for leading trainer, has Black Rain making his third career start as he moves up from the maiden ranks to to try winners for the first time. Representing Chad Brown--also involved in that Trainer's battle, 4-Leading Contender was second against similar at Saratoga last out and has done little wrong in 3 starts. Look for the daughter of Gun Runner to sit a similar trip to Black Rain. 3-Redeemer is entered in the Keeneland November Sale but before he sells, he'll have a chance for shipping money after a third place finish in a tough allowance.

7th Race
With potentially a stiff early pace in the Dowager, late running 8-Lovely Princess could get the perfect set up. 2 for 2 at Keeneland, the filly has been knocking on the door in stakes company including a second in the prestigious EP Taylor in Toronto. 1-Jemroetta Tp[ja, os emptier wjp chi;d get the trip, stalking just off the pace in her previous tries. 9-Transient fits with these and was just second in the Ladies Marathon.

8th Race
A lot of different ways to go in this wide open maiden race for two year olds. 11-Agoo has the advantage of a race under his belt, and he's continued to train well since his debut. 7-Ethan Energy, a Stonestreet homebred, makes his debut after many long works. The 1/2 brother to Royal Charlotte has a precocious pedigree and a lot of works under his belt as he debuts for Brad Cox. 2-Legalize makes his debut for Cherie DeVaux who is enjoying a break through meet and year. While the trainer tends to take her time with young horses, the colt is by a win early sire, Constitution, and he has some fast works in the morning at Keeneland.

9th Race
Last race of the week features first level allowance turf sprinters, and 5-Just a Care comes off the layoff with strong credentials. The filly was only beaten a few lengths in the Limestone in the spring at Keeneland, she's proven she can run well fresh and she's improved with each of her four starts. 3-Queen of the Mud seeks her second straight win after breaking her maiden in her second start.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:24 AM

Tom LeachThe grade 2 Dowager highlights today's card and the favorite is vulnerable. Good luck!

1st Race
6-Town Hall caught a tough group in his debut and he has the pedigree to welcome the added distance he gets in this spot. The Cox barn has another strong contender in 4-Title Contender and he brings a similar profile but he wasn't bet that hard first time out. 8-Tis Charming debuted at a mile and should benefit from that experience and fitness.

2nd Race
2-Medaglia Forever has run very well in three of four dirt starts and Saez has ridden her in three of those so it's good to see him showing up in the saddle in this spot. 4-Flashy Lass improved significantly with more distance in the second start. 1-Sassy Walker always takes money so somebody thinks she has ability--perhaps the added distance will bring it out. 3-Stagflation moves up in class but ran well on this surface on opening weekend.

3rd Race
1-Koufax looked good in the first outing for the Amoss barn. The distance is a question but he has the pedigree to handle it. 3-Ethical Judgement has run in each of her three starts on this track and the barn has had a good meet. 2-Derby Code is a longshot with a good chance if he can transfer that turf form from his last start to the main track here.

4th Race
1-My Best Day Ever plunges in class for her second start and her early speed makes her the one to beat under Saez. 9-Teshima ran well last time and she's run well on this track for the Ramsey stable. Gafflione in the saddle doesn't hurt. 7-Belle of the Ball also drops in class but is coming off a long layoff.

5th Race
2-Carimba posted a 103 Beyer off the break and anything close to that effort makes her tough to beat in this spot. 1-Top Gun Girl is a Wesley Ward runner in a turf sprint--enough said. 9-Goin' Good has run well here and was second as the favorite to Carimba last time. The post position is a little challenging. 8-Querobin Dourada ran well here in the spring.

6th Race
2-Grand Aspen has been steadily improving since coming off a long layoff and the inside draw is a plus. 4-Leading Contender is a strong contender, too, but at a short price, I'm not sure he has a great edge over a couple of these. 7-Black Rain has run well in both starts but now faces winners for the first time.

7th Race
At 6-1, 6-Romagna Mia is a strong 'win' contender off her US debut. She lost to a pair of next-out winners and in that short field, she was the one that tried unsuccessfully to put pressure on the lone frontrunner. For this marathon distance, I liked seeing how this filly was challenged for third and then held off that rival and was drawing away from her at the wire. 5-Personal Best has run well in all of her starts on this course. 8-Lovely Princess moves up in class but she's in top form and loves this course. 9-Transient has run well in both starts off the break. 3-Vergara may not be as good away from Kentucky Downs.

8th Race
Some well-bred first-time starters in this field so it's a race where you want to spread in multi-race bets. 7-Ethan Energy is from the Cox barn for Stonestreet Stable and he's by Uncle Mo. 6-Skelly Road shows good works for the Asmussen barn, which has had a good meet. 5-Mystik Dan comes from the McPeek barn and while they're not known for first-out winners, this one shows some blazing works. 2-Legalize has worked well on this track, too. 4-Call Protection is a Chad Brown firster with Gafflione riding.

9th Race
There's a chance for a bit of a price in the finale with 6-All I Want Is You. She ran well in her first try against winners while being in a tight spot until mid-stretch and the stretch runners were already rolling by then. She has good speed and she ran well here in the spring. 5-Just a Care turned in a solid performance in a stake on this turf course last April. 3-Queen of the Mud posted an 84 Beyer last time but moves up to take on winners today. 1-Proud Mary had a wide trip last time and was running at a distance that may be beyond her best.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:24 AM

Ellis StarrSunday October 22, 2023
Race 7 at Keeneland
Post Time 4:12 p.m. eastern time
Dowager Stakes – Grade 3
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#4 Be Up – minimum win betting odds 7 to 2
#5 Personal Best – minimum win betting odds – 7 to 2
#8 Lovely Princess – minimum win betting odds – 4 to 1

Be Up could give trainer Mike Maker yet another winner in a marathon turf race on the Kentucky Circuit. He leads all trainers in this race with five over the last five years and it appears Be Up fits the Maker pattern of acquiring a horse (privately or via a claim) which has never run a marathon distance (11 furlongs or more) and turning them into a horse who can run these long distances. Be Up moved to the Maker barn in February, with a three for eight record. She immediately won a mile race, on all-weather, then won two later on grass. Her best race to date came in his most recent start in July at 10 furlongs where she stalked the pacesetter in second then took over after a mile and was challenged by held safe by a half-length. As a daughter of Temple City the additional quarter mile is no issue, and in a field in which only one other horse, Vergara, may want to lead but may also stalk the pacesetter, jockey Saez has a lot of options with Be Up, who can earn her fourth win for Maker in her sixth start in his care.

Personal Best won at this marathon distance in the similar Grade 3 La Prevoyante Stakes in January, then missed by a half-length in the same sort of race, the Orchid Stakes, in April. She was third in the spring equivalent of this race at Keeneland, the Bewitch Stakes, then ran more poorly at shorter distances. She gets the services of red hot Flavien Prat, battling for the riding title at the Keeneland fall meeting, and stretching back out to her best distance, Personal Best has a big shot to rebound to top form.

Lovely Princess has finished second in three straight races, all stakes, one at this distance, the Keertana Stakes in late May at Churchill Downs. She won right before that six months ago on the Keeneland turf and now with seven first or second place finishes in 11 career starts must be strongly considered a contender to finish first or second.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:25 AM

Kim NelsonSunday's card features The Rood and Riddle Dowager Grade 3 with a field of 9 three year olds and upward Fillies and Mares. The entire card is very competitive and a challenge to handicap. Look for some big payoffs.

1st Race
#2 Midnite Lumberjack has moved barns several times in his short career and has landed with Rusty Arnold for this one. He showed some early speed last out suggesting he can lay close to the pace here. He looks like an improving sort that could get the job done with these. #6 Town Hall exits a key race that was his debut effort. He adds blinkers for his 2nd try at the races and comes over with top connections. #7 T B Twelve Always turned in an even effort in his debut and look for him to move forward off that one. Top Picks #2, #6 and #7

2nd Race
#7 Misintention is making her 2nd off the layoff and is her 2nd with Lasix. The well bred filly has the opportunity to improve here and like that Jimmy Graham is staying in the saddle. Expect decent on odds on this one. #2 Medaglia Forever is making her first off the summer break and her past form is strong with these. She brings a solid work tab suggesting she is fit and ready to roll. #4 Flashy Las is making her 3rd career start and showed a bit of promise in her last. She leaves the blinkers in the barn this time and expect her to show up sharp. Top Picks #7, #2 and #4

3rd Race
#5 Allege is first off the claim and recent form suggests he fits well here. He knows how to get to the wire first with 8 wins under his belt and brings some early foot to gain good position into the first turn. #6 The Reds moves back to the dirt after a unsuccessful grass run. He drops to a new low here and recent works are encouraging. A distance specialist and he gets Luis Saez in the irons. #3 Ethical Judgement comes over as the early 8-5 favorite off his recent form. Top Picks #5, #6 and #3

4th Race
#5 Soulful Tara is making a slight drop in class and can boast one of the best last Beyer Speed figures. She finds a soft bunch here and could get the maiden win with a good trip. #7 Belle of the Ball is dropping in for a tag for the first time in her 4 race career. She has been off since January but works are solid and could be tough in this one. #1 My Best Day Ever is dropping significantly off her debut effort and look for her to move forward. Top Picks #5, #7 and #1

5th Race
#2 Carimba posted a triple digit Beyer number last out and that was her first off the short layoff. She hasn't missed a check in 8 career starts and may be rounding in to her best form yet. #1 Top Gun Girl is fast and recent works suggest she will be quite sharp for this one. She comes over with the Wesley Ward team and have to keep in your wagers. #11 Lady Goldstart is first off the claim for the Maker barn. Barn does very well with this type and would suggest using her in all exotic wagers. Top Picks #2, #1 and #11

6th Race
#7 Black Rain exits a gate to wire maiden score that earned him an 87 Beyer Speed figure. He adds a little distance here but expect that to only make him better. #4 Leading Contender is the 7-5 early favorite and rightfully so with the 90 Beyer he posted in his last where he finished a good 2nd to return winner Film Star. The back up in distance works to his advantage and will be tough to beat. #2 Grand Aspen has been quite consistent this form cycle with a win and 2 seconds in his last 3 starts. He is moving from turf to dirt but still expect a good effort. Top Picks #7, #4 and #2

7th Race
#5 Personal Best has been keeping this type of company her last 5 starts and has been very competitive. She is 3rd off the layoff here and this looks to be her best distance. She brings a late kick that could prove untouchable down the lane. #3 Vergara is the early 9-5 favorite off her win in the Grade 3 Lady's Marathon at KY Downs. She defeated several of her rivals here in that one and her Beyer numbers are impressive. #9 Transient just missed to Vergara last time out and she too deserves respect with these. Top Picks #5, #3 and #9

8th Race
#1 Phantom Speed was an impressive yearling bringing $700K at the Keeneland September Yearling sale. Not crazy about the inside post for a first timer but this colt's works are strong and Rosario is one of the best at getting a horse out of the gates. Look for a sharp performance at first asking . #11 Agoo has a race under his belt where he finished 2nd to return winner Stretch Ride who won here earlier in the meet. His work tab and last start suggests he is fast and may prove tough to catch. #7 Ethan Energy is a firster from the Brad Cox barn. Well bred colt by Uncle Mo looks the part. Top Picks #1, #11 and #7

9th Race
#13 My Sweet Affair is the top pick here if she draws in. She is a distance specialist and has been competitive with tough company in past performances. She's fresh here with a solid work tab. #5 Just a Care is coming in off the layoff but she looks well prepared and could fire off a big effort first off the bench. She also has the home court advantage. #10 Get Twisted was very impressive winning her first start and has since turned in solid works. Hoping she can boost exotics. Top Picks #13, #5 and #10

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:26 AM

SANTA ANITA AUTUMN MEETING : 10/22/23

1st post: 1:00 PM
Bob Mieszerski (34/$141.00)
Art Wilson (25/$176.40)
Terry Turrell (19/$108.60)
Eddie Wilson (32/$174.00)
Consensus* (28/$129.60)

1
Stagger Lee Tom Seaver Beer Money
Western Grit Smiling Jojo Whiskey Rye
Tom Seaver Western Grit Stagger Lee
Beer Money Smiling Jojo Tom Seaver
Tom Seaver (8) Western Grit (7) Stagger Lee (6)

2
Sugar Fish Miss Pixy Stix Asian Matriarch
Asian Matriarch High Flying Gracie Miss Pixy Stix
Miss Pixy Stix Sugar Fish California Code
Asian Matriarch Sugar Fish Miss Pixy Stix
Asian Matriarch (11) Sugar Fish (9) Miss Pixy Stix (9)

3
Inner Beauty Gypsy Lynn Miss Lizzy
Gypsy Lynn Miss Lizzy Flame McGoon
Inner Beauty Secrets Told Gypsy Lynn
GYPSY LYNN Inner Beauty Miss Lizzy
Gypsy Lynn (15) Inner Beauty (12) Miss Lizzy (4)

4
Bella Vienna Big Rainbow Jazzy Empress
Bella Vienna Big Rainbow Jazzy Empress
Jazzy Empress Big Rainbow Bella Vienna
Bella Vienna Big Rainbow Jazzy Empress
Bella Vienna (16) Jazzy Empress (8) Big Rainbow (8)

5
SORBET Ha Ha Gloria She's Muy Muy
Encolpion Sorbet My Moon
Cy's Silkstocking Sorbet Encolpion
Sorbet Cy's Silkstocking She's Muy Muy
Sorbet (16) Cy's Silverstocking (7) Encolpion (6)

6
Tiff With Jimmy Allocate Unkept Secret
Unkept Secret Tiff With Jimmy Allocate
Tiff With Jimmy Unkept Secret Miss Commander
Unkept Secret Tiff With Jimmy California Diva
Tiff With Jimmy (14) Unkept Secret (13) Allocate (3)

7
Americaredwhiteblu Lemon Sushi Don't Swear Dave
DON'T SWEAR DAVE Americaredwhiteblu Tigerhon
AMERICAREDWHITEBLU Don't Swear Dave Lemon Sushi
Americaredwhiteblu Lemon Sushi Devil Moon
AMERICAREDWHITEBLU (19) Don't Swear Dave (10) Lemon Sushi (5)

8
Castle Island Central Dispatch Devilish Desire
Central Dispatch Matanzas Creek Dazzlemesilver
Central Dispatch Palagio Matanzass Creek
Admiral Halsey Palagio Devilish Desire
Centrail Dispatch (12) Castle Island (5) Admiral Halsey (5)

9
Touchdown Kittle Dark Marcus Chrome to Riches
Maxville City of Angels Touchdown Kittle
Touchdown Kittle City of Angels Dark Marcus
City of Angels Maxville Dark Marcus
Touchdown Kittle (11) City of Angels (9) Maxville (7)

*Selections from Bob Mieszerski, Art Wilson, Terry Turrell and Eddie Wilson are combined in the consensus. A top choice receives five points (handicapper's capitalized best bet receives seven) a second choice two points and a third choice one. Numbers below handicapper's name reflect total wins and money won for the meet.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:26 AM

October 22, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Smiling Jojo; 3-Tom Seaver.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Stagger Lee; 2-Cody Boy.

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a challenging state-bred maiden turf sprint with several possibilities. A “spread” strategy is recommended. Smiling Jojo is bred for speed (Smiling Tiger) and apparently has plenty of it based on his last pair of workouts, so we suspect he’ll turn up a live item on the tote. He’s a bit high headed and may be a difficult ride, but if he breaks running the Brian Koriner-trained sophomore should make his presence felt. We haven’t seen Tom Seaver in the morning (he’s done most of his preparation at Los Alamitos), but we all remember his brilliant dam, Enola Gay, who was one of the fastest California-bred sprinters in the past several years. This will be her first foal to make it to the post, and it will be interesting to see if he can display at least some of his mother’s ability.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Sugar Fish; 2-Asian Matriarch.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Sugar Flash plummets from a pair of straight maiden races to this maiden $32,000 event, and with just four rivals in the field the daughter of Accelerate looks like the one to beat pretty much by default. The pedigree okay’s this longer distance and with the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle fully in play she shouldn’t have any excuses. Asian Matriarch was claimed out of a maiden $50,000 sprint in which she finished a somewhat lethargic fourth at 7/5. The new connections clearly aren’t thrilled with the acquisition, hence the class drop, but with back numbers that fit and with a big break in the weights she’s clearly the one to fear most.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Miss Lizzy; 5-Inner Beauty.
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Miss Lizzy is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and had legitimate excuses when closing well but too late in her most recent outing that resulted in a better-than-looked fifth place finish in a very fast, highly rated race for the level. This group should be well within her range, so let’s go with the Doug O’Neill-trained filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1. Inner Beauty is winless in six starts over the local lawn but she has dangerous early speed and is turning back from a route. If she can clear the field without pressure she could prove hard to catch.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bella Vienna; 1-Big Rainbow.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Bella Vienna displayed early speed before fading in her first two outings but today takes the always critical class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming. She should be able to shake loose early without pressure and then have every chance to complete the deal in the final stages. Big Rainbow is a one-paced grinder removing blinkers. If our top pick can’t see out the trip, she’s the one most likely to catch her.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Sorbet; 3-Ha Ha Gloria; 1-She’s Muy Muy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Sorbet brought $190,000 as a yearling, finished second in her debut facing straight maidens at Los Alamitos last month, and today shows up in a maiden claimer, not exactly a ringing endorsement from her connections. If she runs back to her first race, she’ll likely win, though at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not a lot of value to be found. Ha Ha Gloria displayed some talent when a good runner-up facing a decent field of maidens in her debut last November over the all-weather surface at Dundalk in Ireland. She’s not the smoothest of movers and the local workouts don’t inspire, but the barn has excellent stats with layoff runners and this Irish-bred filly certainly is bred to enjoy grass. Look for her to be running on late. She’s a Muy Muy has speed breeding (Goldencents) and could be a sneaky type for trainer Mark Glatt. She’s acted a bit green in her morning trials but if she leaves cleanly from the rail she’s likely to be in the fray.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Tiff With Jimmy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Tiff With Johnny drops to her lowest level ever and in this soft bottom-rung maiden claiming ($20,000) field the Mark Glatt-trained filly appears to have found her friends. She shortens to five and one-half furlongs, picks up bug boy Torrealba, and should be hard to catch, but at a short price. You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

*

RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Americaredwhiteblu
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Don’t Swear Dave.

Forecast: Americaredwhiteblu has been away for more than a year but returns protected in a sign of confidence by trainer Mark Glatt, whose success with layoff runners is well-documented. Much faster that these on speed figures if he returns as well as he left, the first-time gelding is unproven on grass (winless in two prior starts) but has the pedigree to handle the lawn and we suspect he will. Regular rider Abel Cedillo keeps the mount, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make him an aggressive play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Matanzas Creek; 6-Central Dispatch.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Matanzas Creek has done some good work in the morning while preparing for his racing debut and from his comfortable outside draw the son of Empire Maker should have every chance to produce a winning effort in this extended sprint for older straight maidens. The barn’s “go-to” rider Ramon Vasquez take the mount for a trainer whose first timers often run better than they work. Central Dispatch is the one to fear most. A reasonable runner-up as the favorite in a similar event at Del Mar last time out, the son of Arrogate was more than six lengths clear of the rest, has trained well since, and appears headed in the right direction.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): City of Angels; 2-Touchdown Kittle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Dark Marcus.

Forecast: City of Angels was scratched yesterday out of a tougher race (a sprint) for this moderate nine furlong maiden turf affair that, and at least based on his pedigree he should offer much more agreeable conditions. With the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle and showing significant improvement in the speed figure department between his first and second starts, the Mike Puype-trained gelding boasts a strong, healthy work tab in recent weeks to indicate he’s ready to step forward again. Look for him to settle in the second flight and then have every opportunity from the quarter pole home. Touchdown Kittle is another trying a distance of ground for the first time, but in his case he’s certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Whether or not he can run this far is questionable, but if he can get the trip it'll most likely be in his first attempt.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:28 AM

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKSKeeneland - Race #5

PICKS
NOTES

#8 Querobin Dourada
Think you can go a handful of different ways in a race with a lot of spotty form, but this one is bringing fairly reliable route lines with her and has some good back sprint form that makes her appealing from off the pace.

#9 Goin' Good
She almost always fires and is likely to find another great pressing spot into the turn. Not sure I'd want to be here if the price got kind of short with the string of underneath finishes on the page.

#1 Top Gun Girl
She's a bit of a question on class while facing some stakes types, but her better efforts keep her in the picture with these at what might be an OK price.

Race Summary
Querobin Dourada gets some class relief out of Grade III company today, and I think her consistent ability to finish should serve her well in a race that leaves me with a lot of questions. Nothing wrong with the runner-up finish to a graded stakes sprinter in the dash here this spring.

Keeneland - Race #7

PICKS
NOTES

#8 Lovely Princess
She might get a bit overlooked with some generally cheaper runs to her name over the last 18 months, but I like how honest she is and that she loves this turf course.

#9 Transient
She has been competitive with some of the other runners in here in the efforts on her page, and she doesn't seem affected by the race flow in most of her starts. Capable.

#6 Romagna Mia
Probably wanted to see something just a touch better from her in that short Beverly D. field back in August, but she might appreciate working with some added ground today that allows her to lope at one pace.

Race Summary
#3 Vergara is probably tough in here, too, but I don't totally trust her to run back to the last one at what is likely a short kind of price. Lovely Princess has thrived here in the past and handled a marathon stakes trip with cheaper back at Churchill in May, and I'm hoping she'll sneak by at a midrange price.

Keeneland - Race #9

PICKS
NOTES

#5 Just a Care
She's down out of stakes company off the bench today, and she ran OK with that better group here in the spring. Think she might find a dreamy kind of spot behind the pace from here.

#3 Queen of the Wild
Worry that she'll be overbet for tough connections off a couple races that feel like they stack up but don't stand out. Guessing there is still better here.

#10 Get Twisted
She doesn't seem...totally overmatched here (?) after the 91/1 upset in her debut try, and she's at least meeting a handful of pace horses who might give her a fair chance to roll past again.

Race Summary
Just a Care comes back fresh and gets into an allowance spot with some form that stacks up nicely here, and she feels like the right one if she comes back the way she left.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:29 AM

TALKING HORSES
Sunday October 22, 2023
BAQ PICKS

Acacia Clement
Race 1 6-7-1-2
Race 2 6-7-1-3
Race 3 7-3-4-2
Race 4 7-2-6-9
Race 5 1A-13-12-2B
Race 6 2-1-5-7
Race 7 7-1-8-3
Race 8 13-11-9-12
Race 9 2-11-3-1

Paul Verderosa
Race 1 7-2-6-1
Race 2 3-7-4-6
Race 3 3-6-1-4
Race 4 4-9-2-3
Race 5 13-2B-10-12
Race 6 1-2-4-8
Race 7 1-4-8-6
Race 8 11-13-12
Race 9 2-7-11-10

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:30 AM

Picks & Plays for Sunday, October 22
by David Aragona

BAQ

PICKS

Race 1: 6 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 1A - 12 - 2B - 13
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 13 - 11 - 9 - 1
Race 9: 2 - 11 - 10 - 9

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Just Call Ray (#6) is probably the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. This stable appears to be emerging from a monthslong slump, having sent out some live runners in recent weeks at Aqueduct. Just Call Ray comes off a solid effort at this level last month, where he was conservatively ridden until upper stretch before staying on late to finish second. Yet now he’s stretching out to 9 furlongs, and it’s unclear if he really wants to go this far. He didn’t handle 1 1/4 miles when he tried it at Saratoga three back. In some ways, his form makes him the most reliable horse in here, but I didn’t want to default to him at a short price. Treasure Trove (#7) has run some of the fastest races of anyone in this group, and was in great form when he came to Aqueduct in February of last year to win an optional claimer. His form tailed off after that, but he appeared to rebound last time in his first start off the trainer switch to Raymond Ginter. He was no match for a winner who has been in good form, but he finished well ahead of the rest while facing a tougher field than he meets today. My top pick is Higher Quality (#1). He seems like one that could fly under the radar once again for a barn that typically is underrated by the bettors. He’s just dropping back into a realistic spot after trying tougher starter allowance foes in his last race. He didn’t run well that day, but he also got very agitated before the race, and seemed to exert too much energy when unsettled on track in the post parade and warm-up. It’s definitely worth watching him before this race, but he can beat this field if he gets back into the form that we saw from him two back at Pimlico.

Fair Value:
#1 HIGHER QUALITY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 3

The real wild card in this $12,500 claimer is Mr Phil (#4), whose good races would absolutely crush this field. Yet it’s hard to know what to expect from a runner dropping out of high-level optional claiming races into this bottom-level event. I can forgive most of his recent starts due to the tougher company, but he dropped away abruptly last time, and it’s fair to wonder if he can run at all anymore given this aggressive placement. Another horse dropping in class is Prince James (#6), and he is doing so first off the claim for Linda Rice. I’m a little less concerned about this drop, since Linda tends to place her horses where they can win and he’s coming off a poor effort at the $20k level. This horse ran plenty of races for Ray Handal earlier this year that would make him tough, and Rice has been potent with her claims over the past year. Ray Handal’s runner in this race is Ensign Parker (#2), who seeks his second victory in a row after winning in a slightly cheaper spot last time. He got a smart ride from Dylan Davis, who hustled him to the front despite a slow break. That allowed him to control the race on a day where horses who got clear generally had an advantage. That track profile appeared to work against Winning Drive (#3). He was always out of position after a tardy start and was also compromised by traffic in the stretch as he was attempting to mount a rally. He actually ran much better than the result indicates. He was also up against a bias two back at Saratoga when encountering a speed-favoring track against a slightly tougher field. I think he’s finally getting into a more favorable spot, and the price figures to be fair given his dirtied up form.

Fair Value:
#3 WINNING DRIVE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6

This $35k conditioned claimer seems truly wide open. Western Lane (#7) in some ways is the most reliable runner, since she’s generally been consistent from a speed figure standpoint in her limited dirt races. The problem with her is that she’s coming off victory against a very weak off the turf field, and her lack of early speed could be a problem going this shorter distance. Everlys Girl (#2) makes plenty of sense on numbers coming off the claim for David Jacobson, shipping in from California. She appears to fit at this level, but she’s never been a horse who loves to win races and she figures to take some money in this spot. Rudy Rodriguez sends out a dangerous entry, led by Howzyourcashflow (#1), who got an awkward trip when she returned at Delaware last time. It’s possible that she just doesn’t want to go a mile, and she got shuffled back before angling wide and flattening out. I expect her to get a more aggressive ride this time as she adds blinkers. She’s the ,most likely winner in my view, but I am a little concerned that she could be too short a price as part of an entry. My top pick is Proud Foot (#5). It appears that this Linda Rice runner has gone off form, but I think she’s been in some of the wrong spots recently. She doesn’t seem to appreciate extra distance, so it was asking a lot of her to go a mile last time. She set the pace, but found herself on top of a dead rail, and came up empty in the stretch. She’s better than that, and I think she can rebound as she turns back in distance and drops slightly in class. Though, I would want to let price be my guid when deciding between she and Howzyourcashflow.

Fair Value:
#5 PROUD FOOT, at 9-2 or greater
#1 HOWZYOURCASHFLOW, at 7-2 or greater

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:31 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 22
Oct. 21, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 57% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 7 Retail Man K Carmouche
PLACE 4-1 2 Rob the Bank L R Rivera Jr.
SHOW 7-2 1 Goldfire M Franco
WILD CARD 6-1 5 Charles J D Davis

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Dunedin Causeway L J Luzzi
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 3 Ice the Kicker J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 TREASURE TROVE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 7 Treasure Trove J A Gomez
PLACE 4-1 4 Bold Victory D Davis
SHOW 5-2 6 Just Call Ray M Franco
WILD CARD 6-1 1 Higher Quality R R Maragh

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 3 Six Percent R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 2 Invisible War J Castellano

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

RACE #3 $12,500 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 ENSIGN PARKER

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 2 Ensign Parker D Davis
PLACE 9-2 1 Bourbons Hope J L Ortiz
SHOW 3-1 4 Mr Phil M Franco
WILD CARD 4-1 7 Mister J T I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Prince James J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 9 Striking Speed L J Luzzi

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 BOLT DPLATA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 2 Bolt dPlata J L Ortiz
PLACE 9-2 3 Duke of Gloucester T McCarthy
SHOW 10-1 8 Assertive Attitude J Lezcano
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Timo D Davis

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 9 Sixwillberich J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 4 Collect From Ike J Castellano

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX

RACE #5 $100,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 6 Rhiannon K Carmouche
PLACE 7-2 2B Thought Experiment M Franco
SHOW 7-2 2 Startup Mentality M Franco
WILD CARD 7-2 12 Libban I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 10 Diamond Hands I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 7 Lisas Vision J Castellano

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/2/6 BOX, 2/2/12 BOX

RACE #6 $35,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 1 Howzyourcashflow L R Rivera Jr.
PLACE 7-2 7 Western Lane D Davis
SHOW 5-1 3 Solib M Franco
WILD CARD 12-1 4 Diamond Collector L J Luzzi

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 1A Try It Again E Ruiz
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 8 Cupids Girl J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

RACE #7 $100,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 1 Awesome Native J Castellano
PLACE 2-1 6 Daufuskie Island J L Ortiz
SHOW 15-1 5 Pay Zone M Franco
WILD CARD 8-1 3 Kool Kathmandu J Lezcano

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 8 Shaky Pants J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 7 Capone I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #8 $125,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 11 Super Chow M Olver
PLACE 8-1 5 Listentothemusic J Alvarado
SHOW 8-1 8 Vacation Dance J Castellano
WILD CARD 3-1 2 Gaslight Dancer M Franco

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 13 Ninetyprcentmaddie Rider TBA
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 7 Bal a Kazoo I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 11-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/11 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX

RACE #9 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 2 Dolomite M Franco
PLACE 4-1 10 Empire Magic I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 5-1 1 Collect the Data K Carmouche
WILD CARD 15-1 11 New York Beach T Conner

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 8 Miss Lao J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 3 Carol T J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/10 BOX, 1/10/11 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:31 AM

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 22
Oct. 21, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 T B TWELVE ALWAYS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 7 T B Twelve Always T Gaffalione
PLACE 9-2 2 Midnite Lumberjack L Saez
SHOW 3-1 4 Title Contender F Prat
WILD CARD 2-1 6 Town Hall F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 5 This Time Blue F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 8 Tis Charming B J Hernandez Jr.

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 1 Sassy Walker J Talamo
PLACE 9-5 4 Flashy Lass F Prat
SHOW 5-2 2 Medaglia Forever L Saez
WILD CARD 4-1 5 Colettes Joy T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 3 Stagflation J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Perceptive R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #3 $50,000 CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET

BEST BET: #3 ETHICAL JUDGEMENT

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 3 Ethical Judgement T Gaffalione
PLACE 12-1 4 Devil Vision R Santana Jr.
SHOW 15-1 7 Icarus A Beschizza
WILD CARD 5-2 1 Koufax E Morales

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 6 The Reds L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 2 Derby Code J Rosario

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET

BEST BET: #9 TESHIMA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 9 Teshima T Gaffalione
PLACE 9-5 7 Belle of the Ball F Prat
SHOW 8-1 2 Birdie Rose M Chuan
WILD CARD 7-2 1 My Best Day Ever L Saez

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 8 Mamba Out T Canuto
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 10 Mrs. Speaker C Landeros

* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX

RACE #5 $140,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 1 Top Gun Girl J R Velazquez
PLACE 7-2 9 Goin Good T Gaffalione
SHOW 4-1 2 Carimba O Mojica
WILD CARD 10-1 10 Opening Buzz L Machado

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 All That Magic L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Marissas Lady R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 2/9/10 BOX

RACE #6 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-5 4 Leading Contender F Prat
PLACE 12-1 3 Redeemer T Gaffalione
SHOW 2-1 7 Black Rain L Saez
WILD CARD 5-1 1 Moreau J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 Grand Aspen G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Escapologist J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #7 $300,000 STAKES
1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 8 Lovely Princess B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 4-1 5 Personal Best F Prat
SHOW 9-5 3 Vergara J Rosario
WILD CARD 6-1 6 Romagna Mia J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 9 Transient T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 1 Henrietta Topham J Graham

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #8 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 11 Agoo D Cannon
PLACE 9-2 4 Call Protection T Gaffalione
SHOW 6-1 2 Legalize L Saez
WILD CARD 4-1 7 Ethan Energy F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Skelly Road R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Linebacker F Prat

* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/11 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #9 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 13 My Sweet Affair F Prat
PLACE 4-1 5 Just a Care L Saez
SHOW 6-1 10 Get Twisted J Loveberry
WILD CARD 8-1 6 All I Want Is You V Cheminaud

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 1 Proud Mary F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2 3-1 3 Queen of the Mud F Prat

* EXACTA: 13-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/10/13 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:31 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 22
Oct. 21, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 1 Beer Money E A Maldonado
PLACE 8-1 10 Whiskey Rye J Torrealba
SHOW 5-2 3 Tom Seaver A Fresu
WILD CARD 8-1 2 Cody Boy K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Stagger Lee T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2 7-2 7 Smiling Jojo R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 2/3/10 BOX

RACE #2 $28,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 SUGAR FISH

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 5 Sugar Fish A Aguilar
PLACE 5-2 2 Asian Matriarch J Torrealba
SHOW 5-2 3 Miss Pixy Stix R A Vazquez
WILD CARD 3-1 4 California Code D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 High Flying Gracie T J Pereira

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #3 $38,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:03 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 2 Flame McGoon A Cedillo
PLACE 4-1 4 Miss Lizzy A Fresu
SHOW 5-2 3 Gypsy Lynn K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD 2-1 5 Inner Beauty T J Pereira

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 Secrets Told K Frey
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 6 Vincero Grande D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #4 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 1 Big Rainbow T J Pereira
PLACE 9-5 3 Bella Vienna J Valdivia Jr.
SHOW 4-1 5 Jazzy Empress A Ayuso
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Coconut Girl A Aguilar

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 2 Mumbles Brockman R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Easter Coming Back T Baze

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #5 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 7 Encolpion A Fresu
PLACE 8-5 4 Sorbet H I Berrios
SHOW 20-1 5 Cute Khloe U Rispoli
WILD CARD 5-1 2 My Moon J Valdivia Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 Shes Muy Muy K Frey
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 6 Cys Silkstocking T Baze

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:39 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 5 Tiff With Jimmy J Torrealba
PLACE 6-1 6 Turquoise Bikini E Payeras
SHOW 3-1 3 Unkept Secret J Valdivia Jr.
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Miss Commander G Franco

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 California Diva D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2 3-1 4 Allocate K Frey

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #7 $38,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:11 PM ET

BEST BET: #3 AMERICAREDWHITEBLU

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 3 Americaredwhiteblu A Cedillo
PLACE 4-1 5 Devil Moon U Rispoli
SHOW 3-1 1 Lemon Sushi J Bravo
WILD CARD 3-1 8 Dont Swear Dave M Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 4 Club Cal A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 9 El Oro R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX

RACE #8 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:41 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 2 Castle Island K Frey
PLACE 3-1 6 Central Dispatch H I Berrios
SHOW 5-1 1 Palagio M E Smith
WILD CARD 5-1 4 Devilish Desire A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Dazzlemesilver K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 7 Matanzas Creek R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

RACE #9 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:11 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 DARK MARCUS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 4 Dark Marcus D A Herrera
PLACE 4-1 2 Touchdown Kittle U Rispoli
SHOW 5-1 3 Chrome to Riches A Fresu
WILD CARD 7-2 7 City of Angels A Ayuso

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Maxville M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Silent Heat R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:31 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Texas w/Eovaldi +115 over Houston

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:32 AM

Free play from Totals4UEarly Sunday Free Selection: Buffalo Bills/New England Patriots under 40 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:32 AM

Free play from #1 SportsEarly Sunday's Free Play: Texas Rangers even

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:32 AM

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Sunday Free Play
Texas Eovadli +110 MLB

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:33 AM

Free play from Teyas SportsFREE PICK 10/22/23 NFL ARIZONA +8 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:33 AM

Free play from Kenny TowersYour Free Pick for Sunday - Buff/NE OVER 40

Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 10-9

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:33 AM

Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take Kansas City Over 47.5

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:33 AM

Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, October 22, 2023
10/22 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET
NFL (459) BUFFALO BILLS VS (460) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Take: 459. Buffalo Bills
Reason: Could the Bill Belichick era be coming to an end in New England? This is the worst start he's had and it won't get any easier here on Sunday as the Bills come into Foxboro. The Patriots are 1-5 on the season and have yet to win a home game in three chances. They have a -80 point differential, worst in the AFC. The Pats offense has scored 20 points or more just one time this season and that caem in their opening week loss to the Eagles, 20-25. Since then they have hit 17 points twice and held to three points vs the Cowboys and no points by the Saints. Last week they lost at Las Vegas, 17-21, as a 3-point dog. Their last five games have gone under the total. The Bills offense was jet lagged last week after returning from London, England the week before. The offense managed just 14 points in their win over the Giants, 14-9. That made two straight under plays and three of their last four going under. The weather will be fair with a chance of showers and winds around 13 mph. Can't imagine the Pats staying close in this one. The Bills should be past their jet lag and I expect a easy win for Buffalo. Your free play is on the Bills.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:33 AM

Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2023
NFL
461. Commanders -3 (10 PT / 1 ET)

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:34 AM

Free play from Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Texas/Houston Game OVER 8.5 Runs

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:34 AM

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday :Take ARIZONA/SEATTLE UNDER the total of 44.5

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:34 AM

Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 1284-857 run SUNDAY NFL Arizona + 8 1/2

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:34 AM

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Sunday: GREEN BAY -1.5 over Denver

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:35 AM

Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for Sunday: Dolphins/Eagles OVER (NFL)

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:35 AM

Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SUNDAY!
MLB Houston/Texas OVER the total of 8.5 runs!

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:35 AM

Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: WASHINGTON/NY GIANTS UNDER the total of 37.5

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:35 AM

Free play from Atlantic SportsEarly Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Detroit Red Wings + 120

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:35 AM

Free play from Sharp BettorSharpBettor FREE Play SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2023
FREE
NFL
452. Buccaneers -2.5 (10 PT / 1 ET)

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:35 AM

Free play from Hawkeye SportsEarly Sunday's Free Pick: Boston Bruins - 270

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:36 AM

Free play from The Last CallSunday's Early Free Play: (470) Denver Broncos + 1

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:36 AM

Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Early Sunday: Los Angeles Rams - 3

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:36 AM

Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Sunday
Indianapolis Colts

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:37 AM

Will Rogers

Free Play: Aston Villa-111 (Soccer)

West Ham has enjoyed an edge in recent h2h play but Villa will be too much for them in this one. Villa has only conceded three goals in its last four matches and has allowed one goal or less in six of its last seven matches. The Hammers gave up 2 goals in their last match and have conceded 6 in their last 4. Villa has been superb at home and will snap a winless streak in the series.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:37 AM

Mike Williams

1* on Bucs-2.5 -115

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:37 AM

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on TB-140

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Tampa Bay are 7-2 in their last 9 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference South division.

- Atlanta are 1-5 in their last 6 games against Tampa Bay.

- Atlanta are 2-5 in their last 7 games played in week 7.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:38 AM

Mike Lundin

Mike Lundin's Falcons/Bucs NFL Free Pick

Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder was undefeated at home until last week's 24-16 loss to the Commanders. On the road, the Falcons are winless with Ridder as the starting QB, and this season, they've managed to score a total of only 13 points in their two games away from home.

The Falcons need Ridder to significantly improve his road game to have any chance of winning this one, as they can't rely on their running game against this Tampa Bay defense.

The Bucs will be looking to bounce back from a 20-6 loss to Detroit. After their first loss of the season, they responded with an impressive 26-9 win in New Orleans. Following last week's embarrassing performance, I expect them to bring maximum effort today.

2* FREE PICK ON TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS-2.5 -115

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:38 AM

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Colts+3.5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:38 AM

Sean Murphy

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' 37 between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The 'under' has cashed in each of the Falcons last four games and three straight contests involving the Buccaneers. With that being said, I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' as these two NFC South rivals do battle in Tampa on Sunday. Note that the 'over' is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series and two of the three matchups that stayed 'under' the total over that stretch still reached at least 45 total points. Falcons QB Desmond Ridder could be on a short leash on Sunday as he continues to struggle in his sophomore campaign. His benching would likely benefit us greatly with Taylor Heinicke an 'over' bettor's friend. I don't expect either team to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football here. Instead look for plenty of splash plays through the air, whether good or bad, ultimately helping this one 'over' the total. Take the over.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:39 AM

Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Raiders vs Bears over 37.5

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:39 AM

Alex Smart

Free Play: Falcons+3 -115

Atlanta out-gained their last opponent the Commanders by 211 yards and still found a way to lose. They out yarded their previous opponent as well by more than 100 yards in a win vs Texas . However despite of their statistical domination the Falcons are still being under rated vs a Tampa Bay side that according to power rankings is also over rated as was evident last week when they only put 6 points on the board. The Bucs have averaged just 14.5 ppg at home this season in offense, and look like weak favs in this spot play situation.

TAMPA BAY is 2-9 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 0-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate.

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 40-90 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:39 AM

Rob Vinciletti

Sunday card has the 100% Divisional Game of the Year going early and our Executive Level Tier going later on with our Top total. We also have the Sunday night Football Winner and Game 6 of the A.L.C.S. NFL Comp play below

The NFL Comp play is on the Indy Colts + the 3-4 points at 1 eastern. The Browns apply to the 0-8 road favorite system below that pertains to Non divisional Sunday Road favorites on Artificial surfaces if they were a home dog last week and 3 or less penalties. The Browns are off a huge upset win as an 8 point dog to SF and lost their only road game of the season. The Colts were leveled by the Jags last week but were solid in a home win prior over Tennessee and lost in Over time here to the Rams 3 back. The Colts have Taylor back and ready to take on a bigger role and should be much better on defense here. Cleveland may bounce a bit after the big win so we will back the Colts. On Sunday Rob has 5 best bets up including his Divisional Game of the Year, an Executive Level Tier 1, a Top Late totals play and Game 6 of the A.L.C.S. Jump on now as Rob ends the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Take the Points with the Colts. Rob V

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:40 AM

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Gualaceo +220 (Soccer)

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:40 AM

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 10-22-23

Arizona @ Seattle (4:05 PM EST)
Play On: Arizona +8 1/2

The Arizona Cardinals travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. Arizona is 1-5 overall this year while Seattle comes in with a 3-2 overall record on the season. Arizona's bright spot on offense is they average 141 rushing yards per game. Seattle is allowing 28.5 points per game at home this season. Seattle has played one division game and they were beat 30-13 by the Rams. Seattle is 4-10 ATS last 14 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona on Sunday afternoon! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:41 AM

Brandon Lee

7* NFL Steelers/Rams Free Pick

PLAY ON LOS ANGELES RAMS -3

I got to lay the 3-points at home with the Rams against the Steelers. If Pittsburgh wasn't coming off a bye week, this would be a much stronger play. With that said, I don't think the extra time to prepare is going to matter. The Steelers offense is putrid. They can't run the ball and the pass game isn't much better. Not to mention the play-calling is sub-par. They are averaging just 268 ypg and 4.8 ypg thru their first 5 games. They are getting outgained on the season by 121 ypg and 1.0 yards/play. Their defense has some good players and makes some splash plays, but are giving up 144 ypg and 4.8 yards/carry vs the run and 389 ypg and 5.8 ypp. Rams are only giving up 19.5 ppg and 5.3 yards/play. You could argue LA is better on both sides of the ball, have a massive edge at QB and at worst a wash at head coach. Give me the Rams -3!

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:41 AM

Ray Monohan

UNDER 44.5

The Steelers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) take on the Rams (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS) this Sunday at SoFi Stadium in NFL Week 7 action. Kickoff is at 4:05 p.m. EST, and you can watch it on FOX. In the NFL Week 7 odds, the Rams are favored by 3.5 points over the Steelers. The moneyline odds show the Rams at -175 and the Steelers at +145. The total points for the game are set at 42.5.

We’re on the under in this one.

This has a lot to do with Pittsburgh’s offense. They have had far too many issues moving the ball. And when they do find the red zone, it’s been ugly as they’ve settled for 3 a lot.

The Rams don’t move at a quick pace either, which should benefit us here. Los Angeles loves to work the run game and will have a lot of short passing plays, which keeps the clock moving.

This is the kind of game where possessions will chew big chunks of the clock and result in potential field goals. Scoring chances will be at a premium, giving the edge to the under.

Some trends to note, the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's L5 games, and 4 of their L5 vs. NFC teams. For LAR the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their L7, and 13 of their L14 against AFC North teams.

These teams have clashed 27 times in their history, including one playoff game. The Steelers have won 10 times, the Rams 15, and they've tied twice. In their L3 h2h games they've combined to score 29, 18, 27 (1 team, as it was a shutout), dating back to 2011.

Back the UNDER on Sunday

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Sunday 5* FREE NFL O/U Play

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:42 AM

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Steelers+3.5 -115

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:42 AM

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall winning all three games outright as underdogs. Mike Tomlin is now 52-32 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Steelers. Now we are getting the Steelers +3.5 over the key number of 3 in a game they should play well considering they are coming off their bye. They have also been without WR Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth in recent weeks, which has really hampered their offense. They get both back this week and this Pittsburgh offense should be much better moving forward. The Rams just lost RB Kyren Williams and backup RB Ronnie Rivers. Williams has been huge for them, rushing for 456 yards and 6 TD while averaging 4.7 per carry while also catching 13 balls for 105 yards and another score. The Rams could be one-dimensional, which won't be good against this Steelers pass rush. Give me the Steelers.

ConleyPicks

10-22-2023, 09:43 AM

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -1

I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week. They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses. They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy. Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season.

Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved. However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season. Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well.

The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago. The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season. The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season.

This Denver offense has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks as well. The Broncos managed just 311 total yards against the Bears three weeks ago, 308 total yards and three turnovers against the Jets two weeks ago, and 197 total yards and three more turnovers against the Chiefs last week. The train is coming off the rails in Denver for Sean Payton and Russell Wilson as the Broncos are now 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS this season.

The Packers have been pretty good defensively this season allowing 338 yards per game and 5.1 per play. They have been particularly good against the pass, allowing 194 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt. That's good news going up against the pass-happy Broncos. Both S Darnell Savage and LB Quay Walker returned to practice and should be back this week, though they will likely still be without LB De'Vondre Campbell. Walker leads the team with 51 tackles, which is 16 more than second place.

Matt LaFleur is 11-2 ATS following a road loss as the coach of Green Bay. The Packers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a road game. Denver is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Green Bay) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games, in the first half of the season are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Broncos won't have a very big home-field advantage for this one with how poorly they have started this season. Don't be surprised to hear the boo birds come out early. Bet the Packers Sunday.