Thursday 10/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=pid1026zf.pdf&exp=10/28/2023&pds=PID_-_10/26/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/26/2023;TRACK_CODE=PID&SAP=FREEPICS)

Presque Isle Downs - Race 4

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 4-5-6) Pick 5 (min .50 cent) Races (4-5-6-7-8)

Claiming $6,250 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 3:21P

(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Trailer. BACKDOORPARTY is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOLDEN SODA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BACKDOORPARTY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days . LEONARD'S LEGACY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. JOSH'S HONOR: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. LARZ: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days.

3

GOLDEN SODA

7/2

6/1

5

BACKDOORPARTY

4/1

6/1

8

LEONARD'S LEGACY

5/1

7/1

7

JOSH'S HONOR

9/2

7/1

9

LARZ

6/1

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

8

LEONARD'S LEGACY

8

5/1

Front-runner

81

68

95.4

68.8

63.3

7

JOSH'S HONOR

7

9/2

Front-runner

74

77

77.0

68.4

61.4

1

ARGYLL

1

12/1

Front-runner

72

69

76.6

62.2

47.7

3

GOLDEN SODA

3

7/2

Stalker

86

71

76.8

70.2

65.2

9

LARZ

9

6/1

Alternator/Stalker

83

67

73.0

71.0

59.5

5

BACKDOORPARTY

5

4/1

Alternator/Trailer

75

75

34.2

69.6

59.1

4

LISA MARIE

4

10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

78

70

73.2

68.2

56.7

10

SHOSHA

10

8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

85

76

52.9

50.0

42.5

6

MOON HUNTER

6

15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

70

67

31.2

56.4

38.4

2

GOLDEN OAK

2

20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

81

61

28.4

53.6

36.1

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn NationalPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=pen1026zz.htm&exp=10/28/2023&pds=PEN_-_10/26/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/26/2023;TRACK_CODE=PEN&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $11800 Class Rating: 63

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 26 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 26 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 3 DESI'S REWARD 5/2

# 5 FLOWER'S FORTUNE 7/2

# 7 RAINBOW TROUT 5/1

DESI'S REWARD has a respectable shot to take this race. Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. Had one of the best speed figs of this field in her last race. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look respectable in this contest. FLOWER'S FORTUNE - Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the lead recently. Always seems to be right there at the wire. RAINBOW TROUT - Should definitely be given a chance for this event if only for the very strong speed rating recorded in the last race. Very strong rider with trainer figures make this horse a very solid choice.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:22 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=rp1026zm.htm&exp=10/28/2023&pds=RP_-_10/26/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/26/2023;TRACK_CODE=RP&SAP=FREEPICS)

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Remington Park - Race #3 - Post: 8:03pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 ANNIE'S SONG (IRE) (ML=5/2)

ANNIE'S SONG (IRE) - I look for this pony to sit off the pace and make a big move on the turn, cruising straight on to the finish line. This thoroughbred could be tough today, especially since Alvarez rode last time around the track and now should be familiar with this one. Average class rating is tops in this group. I think that is a big advantage for a turf race. This filly's last speed fig notched on September 24th is uppermost in last race speed ratings. Ranks number one in the field in earnings per race. A strong performance in this race can add to the lifetime earnings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 AUTOSTRADA (ML=4/1), #6 HAL'S DREAM (ML=5/1), #1 TURN ON THE BLING (ML=6/1),

AUTOSTRADA - Tough to play any thoroughbred like this that didn't hit the board after the long turnout and comes right back. 84/80/69, are the deteriorating speed figures for this vulnerable equine. HAL'S DREAM - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing ability on Oct 7th. Don't think this pony will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed rating was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating. TURN ON THE BLING - The lack of drills has to make one concerned despite the nice effort in the last race. Most unsatisfactory speed figure last out at Remington Park at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will improve too much today.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ANNIE'S SONG (IRE) - I'm betting that this race horse will improve by many lengths with the addition of Lasix. Catch this horse if you can.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #5 ANNIE'S SONG (IRE) to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

5 with [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ded1026zz.htm&exp=10/28/2023&pds=DED_-_10/26/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/26/2023;TRACK_CODE=DED&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 4 TIZ DONEGAL 7/5

# 8 DR. SNYDER 7/2

# 9 MONOLITH 9/2

TIZ DONEGAL should be supported as the wager in here. Solid average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a solid contender. He looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this group of horses in his last race. DR. SNYDER - Looks strong against this group and should be one of the front-runners. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 70 - of his last race. MONOLITH - Must be given consideration - I like the figs from the last outing. Could provide positive returns based on very strong recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 54.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:22 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=del1026zm.htm&exp=10/28/2023&pds=DEL_-_10/26/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/26/2023;TRACK_CODE=DEL&SAP=FREEPICS)

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Delaware Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 BIG BOLT (ML=2/1)
#3 JUST THE THING (ML=6/1)

BIG BOLT - Rode this thoroughbred on Oct 7th and Gomez is right back in the irons today. Ran in the last race against a higher rated class of horses at Delaware Park. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. According to well-known handicapping gurus, the stalking-type of horse is one of the most reliable bets in racing. I believe the addition of the 'shades' today will help this filly focus her attention on racing. JUST THE THING - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier field than last time around the track at Delaware Park. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WILPIC (ML=3/1), #7 UPTOWN JIVE (ML=4/1), #2 LEO'S PISCES (ML=8/1),

WILPIC - The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable challenger. UPTOWN JIVE - This entrant gave a lackluster effort last out finishing eighth. Can't expect improvement in today's race. The Brain tells me to keep away from thoroughbreds in sprint contests that haven't hit the board in short distance events lately. LEO'S PISCES - This horse will in all probability be way back as this field crosses the finish line.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 BIG BOLT on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 2

Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3

Claiming $14,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 3:10P

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 26 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * AMAZING TRIP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AUDITORA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HOTLINE TO HEAVEN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JLO CAN DANCE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.

3

AMAZING TRIP

7/2

5/1

6

AUDITORA

2/1

6/1

1

HOTLINE TO HEAVEN

3/1

6/1

5

JLO CAN DANCE

8/5

7/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

1

HOTLINE TO HEAVEN

1

3/1

Front-runner

77

77

68.4

63.0

56.5

3

AMAZING TRIP

3

7/2

Alternator/Front-runner

75

73

74.2

66.6

60.1

4

BINOCHE

4

10/1

Stalker

66

55

71.8

52.0

44.0

6

AUDITORA

6

2/1

Stalker

79

72

64.6

63.6

59.1

5

JLO CAN DANCE

5

8/5

Alternator/Stalker

75

74

61.6

67.4

60.9

2

LACROSSE

2

5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

54

38

48.6

36.4

26.4

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 4

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 cent PICK 5 (RACES 4-5-6-7-8)

Optional Claiming $55,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $62,000 • Post: 1:58P

(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED/STATE SIRED/RESTRICTED OR STATE CERTIFIED RACE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES SINCE APRIL 26 OR CLAIMING PRICE $55,000-$44,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE AUGUST 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS.CLAIMING PRICE $55,000, IF FOR $44,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Front-runner. OUTLIER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * OUTLIER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. EVERETT'S SONG: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. M AGIC MICHAEL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ARMANDO R: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WISH FOR PEACE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.

1

OUTLIER

7/2

5/1

4

EVERETT'S SONG

8/5

7/1

6

MAGIC MICHAEL

3/1

7/1

5

ARMANDO R

8/1

8/1

7

WISH FOR PEACE

8/1

8/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

1

OUTLIER

1

7/2

Alternator/Front-runner

103

96

86.8

82.2

73.2

4

EVERETT'S SONG

4

8/5

Stalker

108

90

75.2

92.4

87.9

2

IT'S SIZZLING TIME

2

15/1

Stalker

95

90

72.3

88.8

78.3

7

WISH FOR PEACE

7

8/1

Alternator/Stalker

102

99

69.8

88.2

80.2

6

MAGIC MICHAEL

6

3/1

Trailer

104

98

86.0

96.6

89.1

3

MISCHIEF AFOOT

3

6/1

Trailer

108

103

77.8

83.7

72.7

5

ARMANDO R

5

8/1

Trailer

106

94

54.2

93.2

88.7

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:28pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 GOT THUNDER (ML=7/5)

GOT THUNDER - Rodriguez should have him moving solid on the turn. The 91 latest race rating looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 WASABI BOY (ML=7/2), #3 BROTHER SHOWTYME (ML=5/1), #2 HOLY MOLY MOSES (ML=8/1),

WASABI BOY - When checking today's class figure, he will have to earn a much better speed rating than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint. BROTHER SHOWTYME - I forecast disappointment for this animal in this event. HOLY MOLY MOSES - Looked like he was in good form on October 6th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. This gelding hasn't had any positive results in short distance contests in the last 60 days. The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this mount as a likely underpriced equine.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - GOT THUNDER - Earnings per start is a sign of class. I often play horses like this one that are tops in the group in earnings per start.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #5 GOT THUNDER on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

5 with [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $20500 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 26, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 2 JESS A WILD CANDY 3/1

# 3 ROGUE FROM THE SOUTH 4/1

# 1 TEE BRITT 6/1

JESS A WILD CANDY is the top bet in this race. Has recorded formidable Equibase Speed Figures in short races in the past. Put up a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Aquino has an excellent return on investment over the past 30 days (+78) which should help players with this pick. ROGUE FROM THE SOUTH - Looks solid versus this group of horses and ought to be one of the front-runners. Gutierrez has an excellent return on investment over the past month (+13) which should help bettors with this selection. TEE BRITT - Appears to have a solid class edge based on the recent company kept. Jockey's recent return on investment figures make this gelding a strong bet.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 102

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 3 DOLLAR BILL 6/5

# 6 JOHNNY RINGO 123 7/5

# 2 CANDY ON THE RUN 30/1

I've got to go with DOLLAR BILL. With a sound 96 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. This gelding has posted some nice finish positions in his last several tries. Overall the speed figs of this animal look very strong in this contest. JOHNNY RINGO 123 - Has been racing strongly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Put up a reliable Equibase speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belmont at the Big A - Race #8 - Post: 4:22pm - Allowance - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $80,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#11 TIMBUKTU (ML=9/2)
#12 BE OF COURAGE (ML=8/1)
#9 ONE HEADLIGHT (ML=7/2)

TIMBUKTU - Average class figure is tops in this group. I think that is a big edge for a grass race. Off the board finish last out at Belmont at the Big A was better than it looked on paper. He improved position down the stretch and never gave up. BE OF COURAGE - This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. Dropping in class figure points from his October 4th race at Belmont at the Big A. Based on that data, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. ONE HEADLIGHT - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this colt's PPs. Almost always in the money. The improved Equibase speed figures over the last three races is solid. Pletcher drops him in this event fit and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (ML=4/1), #6 LACHAISE (ML=9/2), #2 INDIAN MISCHIEF (ML=5/1),

CLEAR CONSCIENCE - Finished fifth last time out of the box. Would have to move up to finish in the money in today's race. Hard to expect this gelding to be in fine fettle after the extended layoff. Will be tough for this entrant to beat this group off of that last rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable contenders list. LACHAISE - Tough to bet on any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a much better speed figure than last time out to battle in this turf route. INDIAN MISCHIEF - Tough to put your money on this speedy one. Too much speed in the event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #11 TIMBUKTU to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [9,11,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [9,11,12] Total Cost: $6

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:26 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 10 - Post: 9:24 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$16000 - **THE SPORTSMANS PARK** HORSES THAT STARTED FOR A BASE CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST ST UP TO & INC. 10/15/23 AE: CLAIMING $10,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 3 COPPER TEEN 7/5

# 4 BIT OFA TIGER N 5/2

# 5 SUNSET BRAYDON 9/2

COPPER TEEN has a really strong shot to take this race. Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some stellar TrackMaster Speed Ratings averaging around 85. The consortium gives this standardbred a really strong chance to take this race, class stats are tops in the race. Could more than likely best this field of horses given the 84 TrackMaster Speed Rating recorded in his last contest. BIT OFA TIGER N - When the starter calls, harness racers beginning out of the 4 hole have more wins than you would expect. Feel the need for speed, this standardbred has been turning in some outstanding TrackMaster Speed Ratings averaging around 83. SUNSET BRAYDON - This race horse could get the triumph here beginning from the Hoosier Park 5 position.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:26 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Meadows

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 12

3
3
INXS
7/2
Lems, Chris - 3
500.45

1
1
GET SOME CASH
3/1
Palone, Dave - 25
494.74

9
9
THE FUNK
7/1
Merriman, Aaron - 15
472.75

5
5
IT'S ALL ME
20/1
Monti, Drew - 8
466.50

7
7
STORMONT PARK
20/1
Myers, Hunter - 13
450.48

2
2
BLUE DEVIL
7/2
Indof, Jeremy - 10
449.94

4
4
KRISTY'SGINGERGAL
20/1
Killeen, Jack - 6
431.40

6
6
FATHER TIME
8/1
Zendt, Brian - 7
425.68

8
8
ROSE RUN XCENTRIC
6/1
Wilder, Mike - 17
425.12

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:26 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's PhiladelphiaAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 13 - Post: 4:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$11700 - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES PREFERRED: NW 2 EXT. PM RACES PA PREFERRED

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 4 BLUEBIRD INA 3/1

# 1 INNUENDO 2/1

# 3 GHOST LIGHT 20/1

BLUEBIRD INA looks very nice to best this grouping. This contender could get the win here beginning from the Harrah's Philadelphia 4 post. Unquestionably think these two have a special working relationship. Carter sending the horse out means a nice chance to get the ultimate prize. Carter has been able to get this horse to perform when in the sulky. Definite exotic possibilities. INNUENDO - The knowledge group noted a bang-up event out of this harness racer last time. Looking for a repeat effort of that to take the whole enchilada. Don't count out this horse, especially with Allard in the cart. Hitting the board pct is tremendous. GHOST LIGHT - She looks respectable in this contest and should find a way to take advantage of favorable pace stats.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:26 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rideau Carleton

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS

RACE 9

6
6
BUTTERFLY KISSES
7/5
Shepherd, Robert H - 19
480.04

5
5
SILLY BUT SERIOUS
6/1
Pouliot, Stephane - 14
462.75

1
1
GREYSTONE TREASURE
5/2
Gagnon, Guy - 26
452.10

3
3
BETTER CATCH GIRL
12/1
Gagnon, Jimmy - 13
439.11

8
8
SPEAKER NANCY
4/1
Berube, Pascal - 19
437.98

7
7
CELIA BAYAMA
10/1
Brosseau, Stephane - 14
436.32

4
4
WHATINEEDISAMAN
3/1
Guy, Ryan - 8
424.57

2
2
PERFECT DALIANCE
8/1
Roy, William - 6
412.61

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:26 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers RacewayAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 6 - Post: 8:40 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 92 - Purse:$25000 - NW $22,871 IN LAST 5 STARTS AE: 3-5 YO NW 10 P-M RACES LT

CONSORTIUM CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 5 HIGHLAND MOWGLI 3/1

# 2 CREDIT CON 5/2

# 7 UNEVERGONNAGETHIS 5/1

HIGHLAND MOWGLI is the clear stand out bet in the eyes of the number crunching team. Could dominate this bunch, just look at the speed rating - 91 - from his most recent effort. Brennan and Burke have a good working relationship. Excellent results from their races. High winning clip makes this fine animal an excellent play to take home the dough. CREDIT CON - Could very well provide us a ultimate prize based on nice recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 95. He has really good class statistics, averaging 94. Could be considered for a bet in this race. UNEVERGONNAGETHIS - This entrant recorded a competitive speed fig last out. Looks to be racing sharply to come right back. The handicapping team happens to know that when you put Stratton and Gillis together competitive results happen frequently.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:27 AM

Handicappers' Consensus for Thursday, October 26
KEENELAND

Scott Hazelton
Tom Leach
Jeremy Plonk
Caton Bredar
Kim Nelson

1
4 Dark Vector
5 B Sudd
3 Penzance
2 Spoiler
1 Power Seeker
4 Dark Vector
5 B Sudd
4 Dark Vector
1 Power Seeker
4 Dark Vector
1 Power Seeker
3 Penzance
5 B Sudd
4 Dark Vector
1 Power Seeker

2
5 Showdown King
6 Be There
2 Collier's Time
5 Showdown King
6 Be There
2 Collier's Time
5 Showdown King
6 Be There
8 Time Andbeyond
5 Showdown King
6 Be There
4 Harbour Bridge
5 Showdown King
2 Collier's Time
3 Free Rambling Man

3
6 Olga Isabel
5 Your So Sillea
2 Asena
5 Your So Sillea
6 Olga Isabel
1 Bhoma
6 Olga Isabel
5 Your So Sillea
1 Bhoma
6 Olga Isabel
4 Be Like Water
5 Your So Sillea
6 Olga Isabel
5 Your So Sillea
4 Be Like Water

4
2 Up On the Edge
7 Princess Is Olivia
1 Fluid
5 Guest of Honor
2 Up On the Edge
12 Classy'n Connected
12 Classy'n Connected
2 Up On the Edge
5 Guest of Honor
7 Princess Is Olivia
12 Classy'n Connected
2 Up On the Edge
2 Up On the Edge
3 Kentuckyterminator
5 Guest of Honor

5
3 Excellent Question
7 Red River Magic
10 Skip To The Beat (IRE)
10 Skip To The Beat (IRE)
7 Red River Magic
3 Excellent Question
12 Lady Dynamo
7 Red River Magic
3 Excellent Question
3 Excellent Question
5 Mirari
10 Skip To The Beat (IRE)
7 Red River Magic
10 Skip To The Beat (IRE)
4 Mon Dieu

6
6 Aspiring Comedian
4 Mena
2 Ultimate Strike
6 Aspiring Comedian
4 Mena
2 Ultimate Strike
4 Mena
8 Metronome
3 Prince Is My Boy
4 Mena
8 Metronome
7 Commissioner Oscar
7 Commissioner Oscar
9 Lead Foot
6 Aspiring Comedian

7
7 Copper Missile
5 Code Omaha
12 Please Advise
1 Tough Little Nut
4 Good Bali
12 Please Advise
1 Tough Little Nut
5 Code Omaha
12 Please Advise
7 Copper Missile
5 Code Omaha
1 Tough Little Nut
12 Please Advise
1 Tough Little Nut
5 Code Omaha

8
8 No Judgment
5 Rocketeer
3 Warp Nine
5 Rocketeer
1 Charleston
8 No Judgment
8 No Judgment
5 Rocketeer
11 Stop the Press
8 No Judgment
5 Rocketeer
3 Warp Nine
11 Stop the Press
10 Higginsville
5 Rocketeer

9
2 Vocalize
5 Judge Davis
10 Ruthless Rua
3 Zartownis
2 Vocalize
5 Judge Davis
2 Vocalize
4 Jefe de Obra (CHI)
8 Trust Daddy
3 Zartownis
8 Trust Daddy
5 Judge Davis
6 Star Slugger
4 Jefe de Obra (CHI)
3 Zartownis

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:28 AM

Scott HazeltonHappy Thursday at Keeneland!

1st Race
4-5-3

#4 Dark Vector exit a strong race at Saratoga at a very similar level, and in fact, may been a tougher bunch than he faces today. The one to beat for me. #5 B Sudd woke up back in distance and he's running some very incredible sprint races against tougher and is alive middle price type horse. #3 Penzance had a terrible start last time out and that's not a reflection of what he's capable of doing.

2nd Race
5-6-2

#5 Showdown King will drop back and trip, and that should help him with his speedy nature. #6 Be There takes a drop in class and his face some tough customers in his career, so will appreciate the drop. #2 Collier’s Time makes the same move down in class and we cut back in distance.

3rd Race
6-5-2

#6 Olga Isabell will be the favorite in this race should be she hasn't really run a bad race in her career outside of her debut and looks to keep it rolling coming into this spot with her speed from the outside will be tough to catch. #5 Your So Sillea faces are tougher group than what she saw last time out, but she's capable of finishing in the top three at the bare minimum.

4th Race
2-7-1

#2 Up On the Edge has Ron winning tight races in her last two starts and I think that it's her turn to break through, especially with her experience as a young horse versus a group of two-year-olds. #7 Princess Is Olivia chased a very fast pace on debut, and should move forward and start two of her career. #1 Fluid is starter with some fast that has to be respected from post one.

5th Race
3-7-1

#3 Excellent Question makes her second start on turf and her trainer. Brendan Walsh wins 21% of the time when horses are making their second start on the turf surface. I'll lean on that stat. #7 Red River Magic sprinted in her only two starts and she's a daughter of the Triple Crown champion, Justify. Should move forward with the distance today. #1 Lady Emily Kathryn gets a better post position draw than last time out And Me that will be an overlooked aspect of her form today.

6th Race
6-4-2

#6 Aspiring Comedian takes a huge drop in class and should run better and I think we'll run better and race that should be treated as a wide-open event and multi race exotics even consider hitting the button if you're playing a late pick for today at Keeneland.

7th Race
7-5-12

#7 Copper Missile is big on talent and just came up short last time out coming from all of the pace. He will come running there is no question and I think this is a horse that we're going to hear a lot of not only today but moving forward to next year in his three-year-old season. #5 Code Omaha should seriously speed on debut to win, wire-to-wire and his bread to go further and gets that Chance today and also takes blinkers off. Watch out. #12 Please Advise also stretches out to a ground after some even runs sprinting has the look and form of one that will move forward routing today.

8th Race
8-5-3

#8 No Judgment comes out of an ultralight race at Churchill Downs, and should not be overlooked for connections that don't run a lot of horses. Hopefully the price is right and if it is capitalize. #5 Rocketeer is the first time starter for trainer Brad Cox, that is very well bred and has been working locally at Keeneland, a recipe for success, as always. #3 Shakin Loose has run four times and that will go along way at the 7 furlong distance for two-year-olds as we've seen time and time again this meet at Keeneland.

9th Race
2-5-10

#2 Vocalize comes into Keelan for the first time for a trainer that doesn't run a lot of horses here, but when they do, they're well meant. #5 Judge Davis has always been a good horse the shows up and runs races that make you think he's gonna win next time out perhaps today's the day. #10 Ruthless Rua similar in that sense that she runs good races that are just not quite good enough, but you never know one horses are gonna find the right group had a particular part in the season the breakthrough. Top three contender at the bare minimum.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:28 AM

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 26, 2023

What to Watch for Today: A massive $237,537 pick 6 carryover spices up things today in Races 4-9. Trainer Brad Cox has starters in 5 races today as he puts on a full-court press toward winning the Fall Meet title. Among those are two morning line favorites and three second choices in the line. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 5,7,9.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Cloudy skies and temps in the mid-70s are in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs in the early pick 5 opener. Favorites are a strong 11-24 in claiming races at the current meet, but we’ve also popped 5 different $20-plus winners – so it’s all or nothing. Churchill preppers account for 10 wins, Ellis 4 and Horseshoe Indianapolis 3. B Sudd is the lone Churchill rep here and he’s by solid Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed and has a couple of solid local efforts on the resume. Power Seeker is a local winner at this distance, but it was his only career start nearly 1 full year ago. He’ll try to get a potentially big day started for Brad Cox. Dark Vector is another with solid local form and serious threat as the morning-line favorite. Six of the 7 claiming races this meet at 6-1/2 furlongs were won by the half-miler leader.

2nd Race
Maiden claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs as the early pick 4 begins. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). That’s good news for Harbour Bridge and Showdown King. Note that Showdown King’s last effort at CD was behind Single Dot Yaht, who returned here Oct. 21 to win a maiden special weight as the favorite. Nine of 12 MCL sprint winners this meet were within 2 lengths after the opening half-mile, with experienced horses owning a 10-2 edge over rookies. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito (Be There) looks for his first Keeneland win since the 2020 Fall Meet when winning a similar MCL over 6-1/2 furlongs (last prior win was 2017 Spring). It’s great to see him back with a legit race contender here.

3rd Race
Allowance sprinters clash at 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. Favorites are a representative 6-16 in dirt ALW races this Fall Meet with an average winner around 5.5-to-1. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled at the top with 6 and 5 wins, respectively. Only 1 of 9 dirt ALW sprints has been own by the half-mile leader, but 8 of 9 were within 2 lengths at that juncture. Olga Isabel is 6-5 on the morning line, pure speed and figures to be a very short price. Cox is 37-63 at Keeneland with favorites at 6-5 or less (59% wins), 10% more reliable than all such runners at those prices for other barns. Her jockey Tyler Gaffalione wins 40% in short-field 6-1/2 furlongs sprints like this with 6 or fewer starters on the Kee dirt. Tough to get past this chalk even if Your So Sillea has excellent local form and a very good second to the talented Tarabi here in the Spring Meet.

4th Race
Two-year-old maidens open the pick 6 over 7 furlongs on dirt. Favorites are 5-13 at the current meet in 2YO dirt MSWs with 12 winners at 8-1 or less. Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 4 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. Guest of Honor debuts for Brad Cox, who entered closing week with a trio of 2YO MSW wins (2 with rookies), most of any barn. Guest of Honor is by strong Kee dirt influence Honor Code. Up on the Edge was cross-entered Wednesday in a similar race. The CD set here includes Up on the Edge Princess Is Olivia and Classy’n Connected as viable options. All 4 2YO 7F MSW winners this meet were within 1-3/4 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average just a neck off the pace at that point).

5th Race
The Keeneland Turf Pick Three starts with an elder turf mile maiden special weight, which also is the opening leg of the late pick 5. We’ve only had 2 such races at the current meet through the first 3 weeks, but 47 of them in the database. Favorites are a woeful 11 for 47 with an average winner about 5.5-to-1. Kentucky Downs holds a 16-13 prep locale edge over NYRA (Sar/Bel/Aqu) … but neither circuit is represented here by a serious contender. Only 1 rookie has succeeded like well-bred Mirari and Lady Tremaine attempt. Only 1 of 9 turf mile winners so far this meet was on the lead after the first half-mile, the average winner almost 2-1/2 lengths back at that point.

6th Race
The late pick 4 kickoff is a maiden claimer at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). That’s good news for Aspiriing Comedian, Metronome and Mor Jazz from the main body of the field. Metronome is by strong Kee dirt sire Cairo Prince, as is Prince is My Boy. Closers have ruled the dirt MCL routes at the meet, 4 of 5 racing between 3 and 6 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile. Horses stretching out of 1-turn races (3 of them at a mile, including Ellis’ miles as “1-turn”) have had great success this season at this class/trip. Eight of these 12 exit 1-turn races worth extra consideration. We’ve talked a lot this meet about Brad Cox’s success in 1-1/16 miles races; he’ll have Mena on the stretch out and class drop as the one to beat.

7th Race
The Thursday feature race is a 1-1/16 miles allowance on grass that serves as middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Favorites are 10-17 in turf allowance races this meet coming into closing week with 14 winners at 4-1 or less odds. Kentucky Downs has dominated with 8 winners (no other circuit more than 2). That’s a plus for KD alumni Tough Little Nut, Blue Eyed George, Baytown Pafrait, Good Bali and Please Advse. Tough Little Nut and Please Advise both drop out of stakes placings and should be very tough here. All 6 winners of the 1-1/16 miles ALW races this meet were between 2 and 5-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. Look for finishers. When looking at 2YO turf ALW routes in Fall Meets, we’ve had 10 of these over the years with 8 of the winners coming out of races at 7 furlongs or longer. Chris Block (Tough Little Nut) is the only trainer in the field to have a win in a 2YO ALW route on turf at Kee.

8th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 7 furlongs in this one. Favorites are 5-13 at the current meet in 2YO dirt MSWs with 12 winners at 8-1 or less. Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 4 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. The CD set here includes only Warp Nine and No Judgement, the latter most appealing. No Judgment ran third at CD in his first try vs. a next-out Kee ALW winner and next-out Kee MSW winner. Rookies are highlighted by good Kee dirt sire Curlin’s colt Rocketeer for a Brad Cox barn that’s already won 3 MSW 2YO races at the meet. Cox also has Charleston in a debut effort. Melee is a firster by Street Sense, who has sired 4 winners on dirt at the current meet (plus one on turf). All 4 2YO 7F MSW winners this meet were within 1-3/4 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average just a neck off the pace at that point).

9th Race
Allowance turf sprinters match up in the finale to the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Because of the rail position, this race will be restricted to 10 runners. The inside-outside posts aren’t nearly as disadvantaged with this configuration as the capacity 12-horse fields. Eight of 11 turf sprint winners this meet closed more than 2 lengths after the first half-mile, average just under 3 lengths back at that stage. Kentucky Downs preppers have 4 of the wins, no other circuit more than 1. Wesley Ward, runaway leading trainer here in turf sprints historically, has been shut out the first 3 weeks of the meet in this category and makes a unique entry here with Chilean export Jefe de Obra. Pedigree players note Vocalize is out of the mare Harmonize, winner of the Jessamine Stakes here at Keeneland on turf. Flavien Prat has a meet-best 3 turf sprint wins and partners with Trust Daddy.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:29 AM

Caton BredarComments Keeneland Thursday final week

1st Race
4-Dark Vector comes off a 2 month layoff in a relatively soft place to land. The colt has good early speed and likely won't have a lot of early pressure with the top jock at the meet, Luis Saez. 1-Power Seeker returns off a year away and drops in for a claiming price for his second start. His debut was impressive at this track, but it's a tall order to tackle winners first off so long away and his inside post doesn't help matters. 3-Penzance is interesting in for a tag for the first time but would have to improve a lot off his maiden win at Colonial.

2nd Race
5-Showdown King shortens back up to 6-1/2 furlongs and drops in for a claiming price for the first time. The Keneally/Saez combo is a strong one although trainer is seeking his first win of the meet. 6-Be there moves true to dirt and drops for the first time with some decent running lines against tougher although not convinced dirt is his best game. 4-Harbour Bridge turns back in distance and should be running late--maybe strong enough to at least get a share.

3rd Race
What the second race lacked in pace the third makes up for it. Several horses can vie for the lead early making this a tough one to sort out. 6-Olga Isabel is one of the few speedy fillies who has shown she can stalk and still win. As she exits mile races, it's likely she won't break on top--which could be an ideal situation as she seeks her third straight for meet leading trainer Brad Cox. Outside also offers her jockey Tyler Gaffalione an ideal spot. 4-Be Like Water is one of the few confirmed late runners but this distance may be a shy short of ideal. Still the mare gets a nice set up and has an affinity for Keeneland. 5-Your So Silea is likely to be part of the pace early and she's another who likes Keeneland and comes off a win, although this is the toughest group she's met in awhile.

4th Race
7-Princess is Olivia looks to build on her debut in which she stalked and faded to fifth. It's worth noting that Churchill Downs race has produced two next out winners and appears a tough bunch overall. Look for the filly to improve at high odds. 12-Classy 'n Connected has run well in two starts with steady improvement, and the extra distance may help this daughter of Connect. 2-Up On The Edge is the likely favorite and while she's been second in her last two starts, they were both against easier. Not sure the inside is the ideal place for this relatively speedy filly but she's run too well so far to overlook. 5-Guest of Honor debuts for a strong first out barn (Brad Cox 26% with first time starters) but is by a sire who is only 8% with his debuting youngsters. Definitely possible, but especially at 7 furlongs would want better odds than this one will probably offer.

5th Race
While multiple starts isn't always a benefit in maiden races, at one mile on the turf it's an asset and 3-Excellent Question has run well in past starts but only recently tried grass. That last out turf debut resulted in a third place finish and the blinkers come off for a trainer who wins 22% with this move. Also like that the filly can sit off the pace as with a number of first time starters there may be a lot of early speed. 10-Skip To The Beat gets Lassie for her turf and US debut for Brian Lynch, who is 67% with his first time North America runners. It's a relatively small sampling, but he knows how to get them ready and this filly was third in Ireland last year prior to a long layoff. Off the first time starters, 5-Mirari has a win early pedigree and is a half sister to Lilac Girl, who recently won here at Keeneland on turf.

6th Race
4-Mena gets more distance for his second start, an angle Cox wins at 29%. Colt by Hard Spun showed speed before facing and drops from the highest level to the lowest. 8-Metronome is an interesting price shot adding blinkers and capable of showing speed. The colt makes his first try around two turns and is bred well to handle it in seemingly a realistic spot off the claim. 7-Commissioner Oscar is another stretching out to the mile and a sixteenth whose pedigree suggests he will improve. Wide open group where pretty much anyone has a chance--definitely a spread race in all the multi race sequences.

7th Race
Very competitive group of turf runners here with 7-Copper Missile finishing well after a slow start last out at Churchill Downs. The colt won impressively at Kentucky Downs and has a strong late kick, which should work well with this group, although the rail being out 30 feet is a slight concern. 5-Cod Omaha tries a route for the first time, takes the blinkers off a win and is very quick. The potential pacesetter is likely to have company up front as he tries winners for the first time, but he gets Prat and seems eligible to step up. 1-Tough Little Nut is an improving colt for Chris Block who looks like he can sit just off the early pace and should handle the added ground. The son of Palace Malice was second in the Juvenile at Kentucky Downs last start.

8th Race
Well bred, potentially talented group in this about seven furlong maiden special weight. 8-No Judgement benefits from having run already, and he ran well to be third at six furlongs behind two horses who came back to win. The race he exits looks loaded with talent, and the extra distance suits his stalking style. 5-Rocketeer is one of two debuting for Brad Cox and while both he and 1-Charleston look good, this Curlin colt draws the better post. Curlin is a strong win early sire, and the colt has been working very well at Keeneland while his stablemate ships over from Churchill (where his workouts have been strong as well). 3-Warp Nine is one of the few in the field turning back in distance, so he definitely has a little more foundation and will be running at the end. Colt has experienced traffic trouble in both his prior starts, but he's improved from his debut to his second try and could well continue in that vein.

9th Race
3-Zartownis is a live long shot in a wide open first level allowance turf sprint. The gelding didn't fare well at Kentucky Downs, but he was competitive at this level at Ellis and draws well to get a nice stalking trip for Cherie DeVaux one of the rising stars on the horizon. 8-Trust Daddy makes his first start since June and has come close at this level. He's another who looks like he can sit just off the pace setters. 5-Judge Davis will likely be last to move, but may be best with his late kick. The gelding only has two prior turf tries, but both have been competitive and were on tracks that didn't really favor his style. Another spread race in all the sequences.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:30 AM

Ed DeRosaWe turned a sharp corner after Wednesday's 8-race card, as our two wins on the day--worth $26.32--put us back in the black for the meeting. That's exciting, but there are still three race dates left before things shift to Churchill Downs on Sunday, and we're not taking our foot off the gas at all--especially with a $237,537.20 Pick 6 carryover on races 4-9 today.
I think we'll need some help from scratches to make this playable, but even if the huge Pick 6 pool is not for us, I have to think the extra money (read: interest) in the card will help create other opportunities as well. 131-31-26-12 (23.6% win, 52.6% ItM, +1.6% ROI)

1st Race
Been nearly a year since we saw #1 Power Seeker win on debut, making up more than 8 lengths, which is an atypical journey to the winner's circle first out of the box. Obviously, will need to be ready off the long bench, but a repeat of the one race we've seen makes this one a very likely winner against these.

PICKS: 1-7-5 against 4

2nd Race
Kinda see this as a two horse race between #6 Be There and #5 Showown King and giving a slight edge to the former because I assume a Nick Zito trainee is going to go off the longer price. Be There showed some early zip when last seen sprinting on dirt, and there is a bullet work ahead of this for Racing Hall of Fame conditioner.

PICKS: 6-5-4

3rd Race
Back to back 6-5 exactas, but more confidence in our top pick in this race albeit at the shorter price. #6 Olga Isabel cuts back in distance for a rare none winners of 3 other than condition. Appreciate the patience trainer Cox is showing with this Top Racing homebred, and have to think there's a stakes with her name on it if she wins this one in a manner similar to previous victories.

PICKS: 6-5-2

4th Race
I've picked a lot of debut runners out of the Brad Cox barn this meeting, but we're against this one, as I've liked what I've seen from #2 Up On the Edge through three starts. I guess that's getting into "does this horse really want to win" territory, but the number power is too good on filly with an ideal inside draw. #10 Thorpedo Anna wouldn't shock, as her dam has already thrown a two-year-old winner.

PICKS: 2-10-5The $1 (non jokepot) Pick 6 starts here. There is already $237k in the kitty, and I would not be surprised to see the new money eclipse $1-million.

5th Race
#3 Excellent Question sheds blinkers for his second turf try. That former move is just OK for trainer Brendan Walsh, but the latter angle is gangbusters with a 21% strike rate and +20.5% flat-bet profit. Excellent Question moves inside a bit and gets Tyler Gaffalione, so expect a bit more aggression. Also eligibles #14 & 15 would be in the mix if drawn in. #12 Lady Dynamo is worth watching to see if the outside post is compromising, thus making her a better bet next out.

PICKS: 3-14-15-12-5 against 7

6th Race
Trainer Thomas Molloy adds blinkers for #8 Metronome's first start in his barn after a $20,000 claim. That drop in class last out allowed this one to be much more competitive, and now it appears the Cairo Prince colt can benefit from the stretchout as well. Also encouraged that James Graham--tough meeting so far not withstanding--kept the mount after the claim. #s 2 Ultimate Strike & 3 Prince Is My Boy ship in from "lesser circuits" but have reason to improve in for this tag routing on dirt.

PICKS: 8-2-3-7

7th Race
Trainer Kevin Rice has always been optimistic with #10 Fortune Seller, and I'll buy into the hype at 9-to-2 (morning line) with Tyler Gaffalione getting aboard on the drop in class after the anchor dropped in a Grade 2 last out. #12 Please Advise stretches out and is a closer that might get a setup thanks to our top pick.

PICKS: 10-12-7-5

8th Race
We're back on the Brad Cox train, as the trainer looks to have a two-headed (uncoupled) monster in this one with debut runners #1 Charleston and #5 Rocketeer. I sided with Rocketeer, as Tyler Gaffalione hops aboard for E Five Racing, which has some association with his bride. Charleston no slouch either, though, with two siblings winners at two.

PICKS: 5-1-6

9th Race
Turf sprint to close things out, and if you're live to this point, I can't imagine the payouts being any less than $10,000 per eight bits. #2 Vocalize has been versatile in his races with solid performances both on and off the pace, but most recent victory was gate-to-wire and with post 2 against this group have to think new rider Luis Saez will be looking to be aggressive. #3 Zartowins will be the one chasing home our top pick at a bigger price.

PICKS: 2-3-8

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:30 AM

Tom LeachThese fields are tough to narrow down so don't be afraid to take a chance on a price. Good luck!

1st Race
2-Spoiler comes off his best race from a speed figure standpoint and this one's pedigree says the switch to dirt should not be a problem for a barn that has had a good meet--and that was a good group he challenged down at Kentucky Downs. 1-Power Seeker was a good-looking debut winner here last fall but that's a long layoff to overcome from a tough post. 4-Dark Vector has finished in the top two in half of his eight starts and ran well here, too.

2nd Race
5-Showdown King drops a notch in class and he caught two really good fields in his two starts. 3-Be There also drops and it would be great to see Nick Zito back in the winner's circle at Keeneland. 2-Collier's Time is worth a look if you only focus on his two dirt sprint starts, including a fourth-place finish here.

3rd Race
5-Your So Sillea comes off a good-looking win and she's run well in both of her starts on this track and she shows a fast local work. 6-Olga Isabel comes off back-to-back wins and she's won here. 1-Bhoma will be running late and shows a good race over this surface.

4th Race
5-Guest of Honor is a first-timer for the Cox barn and she's been working well on this track. 2-Up On the Edge has steadily improved through three starts and the barn has had a good meet with limited starts. 12-Classy'n Connected comes out of a good race at Churchill and may improved in the second start off a break. 7-Princess Is Olivia comes out of the same race as the '12'.

5th Race
10-Skip To The Beat goes for a barn that does well with these newcomers from overseas. This filly has a steady pattern of works to get ready and the trainer has good numbers with horses coming off a long layoff. 7-Red River Magic has run well in both starts and the barn has had a good meet. 3-Excellent Question has had four top three finishes this year from five starts. 1-Lady Emily Kathryn ran well at Kentucky Downs and then caught a bad post in the followup race.

6th Race
6-Aspiring Comedian has two-turn experience and Pletcher runners score at high clip on the drop down to maiden-claiming company. 4-Mena makes a similar drop in class. 2-Ultimate Strike goes for a high percentage trainer and the barn has good numbers on stretchouts, too.

7th Race
1-Tough Little Nut shows a good second-place run at Kentucky Downs with a wide trip and I like Rosario picking up this mount. 4-Good Bali will not likely be close to 20-1 and he had trouble last time at KD but still beat half the field. 12-Please Advise has been steadily improving. 10-Fortune Seller has good speed and Gafflione rides.

8th Race
Betting that one of the Cox-trained firsters win here. I'll lean to 5-Rocketeer as a son of Curlin and the four local works. 1-Charleston has a tough post to overcome at this distance. 8-No Judgement comes out of a race in which the runnerup came back to win last Sunday. 11-Stop the Press is a well-bred and high-priced first-timer but the trainer doesn't hit with a high percentage of debut runners.

9th Race
3-Zartownis was wide on a day when the inside was best at Kentucky Downs and he moved into a hot pace that day so I'm betting he'll benefit from that experience. 2-Vocalize has three wins on his resume. 5-Judge Davis improved in the second turf start. 4-Jefe de Obra is from the Ward barn and that always merits respect in turf sprints. 11-Western Command has steadily improved on the grass and is a contender if he draws in.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:31 AM

Ellis StarrThursday October 26, 2023
Race 9 at Keeneland
Post Time 5:16 p.m. eastern time
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#4 Jefe do Obra – minimum win betting odds 8 to 5
#2 Vocalize – minimum win betting odds – 5 to 2

By the time the field is on the track for this race, the word may have been out about Jefe de Obra, who makes his U.S. debut for the strong Wesley Ward barn. He’s only run once but it was a stunner of a race as he drew off to win by 12 lengths. Yes, it was in Chile, and there’s no telling who he beat, but it was a one horse race and very impressive, earning a 96 Equibase Speed Figure which is the highest recent figure by any horse in the field. He has been away from the races since that debut last December, but Ward has as exceptional record with horses coming back from layoffs as he has with first time starters, and this colt has been working consistently for the last two months, including two works on the turf course he’ll run over today. Corrales is assigned to ride and wins at a very strong 33% rate for Ward going back a few years. The colt is a son of Hootenanny, who Ward trained and who won nearly $900K, including in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes, so there is little doubt Jefe de Obra has what it takes to win in this field in which most have one or two wins and many defeats.

The exception to that record may be Vocalize, who has three career wins, tops in the field. He moved to his current trainer between October of last year and this past June, and has run three “A” races since, all turf sprints like this one. He won the first, in June, then missed by a length at this allowance level in July, then missed by a neck in August. He gets red hot Saez to ride, fighting down to the wire for the riding title, and he should be in the thick of the action late for the minor awards at least if Jefe de Obra wins as expected, but Vocalize has a big shot to win if Jefe de Obra has any issues.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:32 AM

Kim NelsonThursday's card is another day of very competitive racing at Keeneland. Only a few days left, enjoy.

1st Race
#5 B Sudd is 3rd off the layoff and backing up in distance. He is also dropping to a new low. #4 Dark Vector brings a solid enough resume to assume he can run with these. He is fresh and lands Luis Saez in the irons. #1 Power Seeker is coming back after a year off. He was successful in his only start and deserves a look. Top Picks #5, #4 and #1

2nd Race
#5 Showdown King is making his 3rd career start and first for a tag. Looking for the back up in distance to improve this guys finish #2 Collier's Time is adding blinkers and he too is backing up from recent races. First time for a tag and could move up with these. #3 Free Rambling Man is a first time gelding and fresh off the summer vacation. Has the potential to boost exotics. Top Picks #5, #2 and #3

3rd Race
#6 Olga Isabel is showing up here off 2 back to back wins and solid 90 Beyer Speed figure in her last. The 6-5 early favorite and deservedly so. #5 Your So Sillea is 2nd off the layoff and was a winner in her first back. Solid performer should show up tough here. #4 Be Like Water exits tough company where she was competitive. This spot looks good to move her up. Top Picks #6, #5 and #4

4th Race
#1 Up On the Edge is an improving sort making her 4th career start. She has early foot and distance looks to suit her. #3 Kentuckyterminator caught a tough post and a wide trip in her first try at the races. She returns here adding blinkers and look for her to move forward. #5 Guest of Honor is a firster for the Brad Cox barn. Top Picks #1, #3 and #5

5th Race
#7 Red River Magic turned in a solid performance in her last to finish 2nd going short on the grass. Look for her to excel when stretched out to 2 turns. #10 Skip To The Beat is making her U.S debut. Barn is quite successful with this type and like her for part. #4 Mon Dieu got left at the gates in her first start and made a good run going 5 1/2 on the grass. Look for her to improve at a price. Top Picks #7, #10 and #4

6th Race
#7 Commissioner Oscar has a race over the track this meet and the drop in class here should move him up. Always like when regular jockey stays on board. #9 Lead Foot drops significantly in class for this one. Well beaten in her last 2 the class relief might be the answer. # 6 Aspiring Comedian is also making a significant drop in class and comes over with the Pletcher barn. Top Picks #7, #9 and # 6

7th Race
#12 Please Advise has been facing stakes company his last 3 races and looks battle savvy for this one. Tough post but like Saez in the irons to work out the trip. #1 Tough Little Nut landed 2nd with stakes company at Kentucky Downs in his 2nd career start. He was a winner at first asking and he looks very competitive here. #5 Code Omaha was quite impressive in his debut taking a field of 9 gate to wire. He loses the blinkers this time out. Top Picks #12, #1 and #5

8th Race
#11 Stop the Press is a very expensive yearling purchase making his first career start. He has been well prepared and have to like him for the win. #10 Higginsville is another first timer with a solid work tab. Barn is quite successful with debut runners. #5 Rocketeer also a well bred first timer comes over with the Brad Cox barn. Top Picks #11, #10 and #5

9th Race
#6 Star Slugger won for fun last out going 5 on the grass. Pedigree is loving this distance and like him for the steal here. #4 Jefe de Obra is making his U.S. debut after a stunning win at first asking in Chile. He comes over with the Wesley Ward barn. #3 Zartownis is a consistent sort that could land a share here. Top Picks #6, #4 and #3

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:32 AM

Belmont Park Hotlist - October 26
Oct. 25, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race [OC 80k/C, 1 1/8 mi] – (5) Unbridled Bomber drops down from three starts in graded stakes races where last seen was a winner by nine lengths. Three of his four career victories were at Aqueduct. (3) Daydreaming Boy like the top choice exits graded stakes races and won a pair of allowances when he ran at Parx Racing. (1) Uncle Moonlight appears to be the lone speed in the small but talented field and that gives him an advantage. (4) Systemic Change won three starts for Chad Brown moving from a maiden to a pair of allowances and returns from a June layoff.

4th race [Clm 25000B, 7F] – (6) Jolly Miss Jill drops back to the claiming ranks after a pair of good runs in starter allowances. Last seen she was claimed and won for a $25,000 tag at Saratoga. She has early speed in a field that is expected to have a slow pace. (2) Maggie was claimed from her last two starts and was a winner last month for a $16,000 price. (5) Exogen comes back from a two-year layoff for Linda Rice and had been racing in much tougher spots. (4) Luna Loca for the most part raced against higher claimers or allowances.

5th race [NY, Alw 80000 N1X, 6F TURF] – (10) Autumn Glory (D) has not been seen racing for about a year and a half. She was a debut winner and then came right back to miss an allowance win by a neck while facing NY-breds in both. (8) Latest Edition made two starts this year and ran well just three weeks ago in open company allowances. (4) Linarite rarely runs a bad race and will drop down from a starter allowance last time. (5) Weekend Rags has got early speed and Irad Ortiz gets back on board.

7th race [Alw 50000s, 7F] – (6) Roman Goddess was a winner two races back and was claimed by Linda Rice for $40,000. First out for the new barn she moved up to a starter allowance on a sloppy track and was third. (5) Mursal ran well in her last five starts and has consistent speed figures that top this field. (4) Ice Reply has plenty of second and third-place finishes against strong competition. (1) Vax was claimed from her last three starts where she finished in the top three and returns to the barn of Mike Maker.

Best bets: Unbridled Bombers (2nd); Jolly Miss Jill (4th). Best value: Autumn Glory (5th); Roman Goddess (7th).

No. Name Letter/
last race Today's Race Comments
(10) Autumn Glory D on 7/2/22 5 Last seen 17 months ago against a very strong field.
(14) Spooky Lady C on 10/6 5 Fourth on Also Eligible List.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:33 AM

Keeneland Hotlist - October 26
Oct. 25, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (6) Be There switches back to dirt and drops into a claimer. Can prevail in this field. (5) Showdown King adds Saez and can wake up in a claimer. (2) Collier’s Time adds blinkers and may perk up on turf. (3) Free Rambling Man has speed and can last for a share. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-6. Doubles: 2-3-5-6 with 4-5-6.

3rd race – (6) Olga Isabel has won four of her last five starts and can add to that streak here. (4) Be Like Water exits stakes company and looks formidable here. (5) Your So Sillea should be part of the early pace and can hang around until the end. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-6.

5th race – (7) Red River Magic was a good second in her debut on turf and can work out a winning trip here. (1) Lady Emily Kathryn disappointed last time but can bounce back in this spot. (3) Excellent Question had some trouble last time and will be dangerous with a smooth trip. (5) Mirari is worth a look in her debut. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-7.

7th race – (10) Fortune Seller set the pace in a stakes and wound up at the back of the pack. May not look back here. (5) Code Omaha looks like the main danger here. (12) Please Advise fits in nicely with this field. (8) Legal Titan can work out a good trip here. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-8-10-12.

9th race – (4) Jefe de Obra makes his first start from Ward and seems poised for a big effort. (2) Vocalize missed by a neck and looks like the one to fear. (7) Gilded Ruler will be a stretch threat in this group. (5) Judge Davis will be a main contender on his best try. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-7.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:33 AM

TALKING HORSES BAQ

Andy Serling
Race 1 6 - 1A - 8 - 3
Race 2 5 - 4
Race 3 6 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 4 3 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 5 5 - 2 - 4 - 10
Race 6 4 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 7 5 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 8 6 - 11 - 1 - 9
Race 9 6 - 12 - 8 - 1

Sara Elbadwi
Race 1 8 - 3 - 6 - 1A
Race 2 5 - 4
Race 3 7 - 8 - 3 - 10
Race 4 6 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 5 4 - 2 - 5 - 10
Race 6 4 - 3 - 5 - 10
Race 7 1 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 8 8 - 9 - 6 - 4
Race 9 8 - 7 - 4 - 9

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:34 AM

Picks & Plays for Thursday, October 26
by David Aragona

BAQ

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1: 8 - 6 - 3 - 1A
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 2 - 10
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 4 - 11
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 9: 10 - 5 - 12 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I’m always leaning towards an optimistic view when it comes to Unbridled Bomber (#5). And it is tempting to explain away this horse’s last few results due to the lack of Lasix. If you do that, the outlook becomes much brighter. I do think the Lasix angle can be a crutch at times, and it’s not like he ran that badly without it in the Westchester and Suburban. Yet he has performed well more consistently on Lasix, and he’s also now getting significant class relief. I also like that he’s being reunited with Jose Ortiz, who rode him very well last fall and spring. I’m just a little bothered by his lack of effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and wonder if he might finally be tailing off a bit. He could regress from his best races and still beat this field, but he’s going to be a short price for the first time in a while. Uncle Moonlight (#1) is the controlling speed, but I have some doubts about him getting the distance. If I’m going to beat Unbridled Bomber, I want to do it with the new face. Daydreaming Boy (#3), the only 3-year-old in the field, improved once stretched out in distance this summer. He reeled off a pair of easy victories in his first couple of route attempts before putting forth a respectable effort in the Smarty Jones. He wasn't quite able to carry that form forward into the Grade 1 Pennsylvnia Derby, but can easily excuse that result given the company. He figures to now return to stalking tactics that had worked previously. He must take his form outside of Pennsylvania, but he should fit well here and may fly under the radar due to the Parx-based connections.

Fair Value:
#3 DAYDREAMING BOY, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

Weekend Rags (#5) is typically a short price in these races, and she’s been a little disappointing. I would have thought she’d win her N1X condition by now given the manner in which she broke her maiden on turf back in the spring. She was beaten by a good horse in Loon Cry three back, and she didn’t get an ideal trip on Aug. 27 when always out of position stuck behind foes on the worst part of the course. Yet she now gets Irad back in the irons and figures to be a short price despite some lackluster results. Royal Dancer (#2) has a similar profile. She’s made three starts this year, and has improved slightly each time, but I still don’t get the sense that she’s on the cusp of breaking through at this level. She also is returning from a brief freshening, so I wonder if she’ll be able to build on that early season progress. If I’m going to take a horse off a layoff, I’d much rather go for Candy Monet (#3) at a bigger price. This mare has run better than the results indicate in each of her last three turf starts. She got a ridiculously wide trip in her final 2022 appearance at Saratoga, producing some crazy Trakus ground loss stats (no longer accessible). She returned from a layoff this year and nearly got the job done against weaker. She spurted away to a clear lead but was swallowed up late in a race that was falling apart. Then last time she was always traveling wide, and got pushed into the 5-path leaving the far turn as she attempted to rally. She actually held her own against the two aforementioned rivals with the toughest trip. Now she’s drawn better, and Eddie Persaud can have one ready off a layoff.

Fair Value:
#3 CANDY MONET, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6

Assuming Spirit Prince (#12), who is entered back on Saturday, doesn’t draw into the field, all of the other horses entered for turf have never raced on this surface before. We’re left with a bunch of first time turfers and first time starters, and I want to give preference to those with experience. A few key contenders exit the Sep. 28 race that was rained off the grass. Live to Ride (#3) ran surprisingly well there considering his overtly turf pedigree, showing determination to stay on for fourth. A $164k yearling purchase at Arqana, he’s by top international turf sire Kingman, and the dam was stakes-placed on turf in France. Her best foal is French G3 turf winner Wind Chimes, who was second by a head in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. He makes plenty of sense, but figures to go favored with Irad Ortiz named to ride. Marceau (#4) is another exiting that race who figures to benefit from the switch to turf. Distorted Humor is a 13% turf route sire, and the dam achieved all of her victories on turf. She’s produced 3 winners from 4 foals to race, two of which are turf winners. He seems like a leggy type that will appreciate every bit of this two-turn distance. My top pick is Quokka (#2). He finished farther back in that Sep. 28 event, but at least he tried to show some tactical speed that day before retreating. He just looked like one who wasn’t handling the surface, as he came off the bridle early. His dam raced in England, and placed in a 10-furlong handicap on turf. She hasn’t produced any turf runner, but she is a full-sister to stakes-placed turf router Quaintly. This horse also has the action of one that will really appreciate the switch to grass. Tom Albertrani doesn’t have great stats with first time turfers, but he is 11 for 66 (17%, $3.01 ROI) with maiden second time starters over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#2 QUOKKA, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 7

There’s no denying that Mursal (#5) is the horse to beat in this starter allowance, but I’m starting to get a little sick of her. She’s been short prices twice in a row and has contended in the stretch like she might win before settling for minor awards. She figure to appreciate the slight turnback to 7 furlongs, since she might have run her best race going that distance three back. However, she’s going to be another short price, and I want to find better value. Vax (#1) comes into this race off an unusual series of claims. Linda Rice claimed her for $40k in July, dropped her in for $16k at Saratoga, where she lost her to former connections William Butler and Mike Maker. Yet she then claimed the horse away from then again for $40k in September. It’s odd that Rice would go in for $80k on a horse that she ran for a fifth of that price for the one start she had her. Yet now she’s moving up into a protected spot, so perhaps the outlook has changed. I still think she would need to improve, but I’m afraid of her. My top pick is Ghostly Girl (#7). She figures to get overlooked following a dull effort in the slop last time. Yet it never appeared that she was handling that wet surface, so I’m willing to forgive the performance. There’s no alarming class drop, and her best efforts clearly put her in the mix. I suspect we haven’t yet seen the best she’ll have to offer for John Toscano, and she drew well outside for this cutback to 7 furlongs. I wouldn’t say I love her in this spot, but she does figure to be the right price in a race where I’m skeptical of the favorites.

Fair Value:
#7 GHOSTLY GIRL, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

There is supposed to be an honest pace in this race given a concentration of speed drawn towards the inside. Both Indian Mischief (#2) and Spiritual King (#3) appear to be need-the-lead types, and Laurel Valley (#8) has also done his best recent running when able to control the pace. Therefore, it is no surprise to see the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. The horse who figures to benefit most from this scenario is my top pick One Headlight (#9). This horse has talent, but circumstances have forced him to settle for minor awards more often than not. He should have won his career debut when stumbling at the quarter pole before running on belatedly for second. Two starts later he earned his only victory when overcoming a slow pace and wide trip to win going this distance. He lost twice at Saratoga, but was compromised on each occasion. He was hampered by a slow pace going a mile two back in a race dominated by frontrunners. Then last time he never saw the rail in a race where the top two finishers rode the inside path. He was closing best of all at the end, but ground loss got him beat. I like him getting back out to 9 furlongs here, and the pace is supposed to be in his favor this time. The other obvious player is Clear Conscience (#4), but I thought he was fortunate to beat One Headlight when he broke his maiden. He met a good field in his first attempt versus winners on June 10, but was somewhat disappointing last time. The trip didn’t work out as he got stymied behind runners in the stretch, but I still thought he was a bit dull. Now he returns from a layoff as a new gelding. One other horse I would throw into the mix underneath at a price is Mr. Kringle (#7). He probably doesn’t want to go this far, but he had some tough trips through the spring and summer. He got a better ride last time, but was always out of position in a forwardly dominated race.

Fair Value:
#9 ONE HEADLIGHT, at 5-2 or greater

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:34 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 26
Oct. 25, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 59% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET

BEST BET: #3 SHAMAN PRINCESS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 3 Shaman Princess J Lezcano
PLACE 5-2 6 Strictly Taboo D Davis
SHOW 4-1 1A Cerretta J Alvarado
WILD CARD 3-1 9 Cuprite J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 1X Bussia L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 4 Watch Over Me K Davis

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX

RACE #2 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 4 Systemic Change M Franco
PLACE 6-5 5 Unbridled Bomber J L Ortiz
SHOW 5-2 1 Uncle Moonlight K Carmouche
WILD CARD 9-2 2 Bold Endeavor J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 3 Daydreaming Boy T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #3 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 6 It Wasnt Me D Davis
PLACE 5-2 3 Better Justice I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 3-1 8 Volatility K Carmouche
WILD CARD 3-1 13 Tooshay K Davis

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Keep It Sexy R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Rapid Miss Tapit L J Luzzi

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 3/8/13 BOX

RACE #4 $25,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-5 6 Jolly Miss Jill K Carmouche
PLACE 7-2 2 Maggie T McCarthy
SHOW 3-1 5 Exogen J Lezcano
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Dufresne M Olver

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Luna Loca L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 3 Amity Island R R Maragh

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #5 $80,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 5 Weekend Rags I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 5-1 15 Supers Lucky Lady M Franco
SHOW 4-1 10 Autumn Glory D Davis
WILD CARD 7-2 2 Royal Dancer K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 14 Spooky Lady R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 8 Latest Edition J Castellano

* EXACTA: 5-15 BOX, 15-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/10/15 BOX, 2/10/15 BOX

RACE #6 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 12 Spirit Prince D Davis
PLACE 3-1 11 Heartened I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 9-2 1 Houlton I Castillo
WILD CARD 7-2 3 Live to Ride I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 6 I See You Lookin J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Team Captain J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 12-11 BOX, 11-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/11/12 BOX, 1/3/11 BOX

RACE #7 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 ROMAN GODDESS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 6 Roman Goddess J Lezcano
PLACE 3-1 1 Vax J L Ortiz
SHOW 8-1 3 Boss Lady Kim M Olver
WILD CARD 5-1 2 Try It Again I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 8-5 5 Mursal M Franco
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Icy Reply L R Rivera Jr.

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 9 One Headlight I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 10-1 1 Gem Mint Ten D Davis
SHOW 9-2 11 Timbuktu J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 9-2 6 Lachaise J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Clear Conscience M Franco
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 8 Laurel Valley K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/11 BOX, 1/6/11 BOX

RACE #9 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 SWEET LIBERTY

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 5 Sweet Liberty J A Davis
PLACE 9-2 12 Two Redheads M Franco
SHOW 7-2 8 Good Morning Kiss J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 10-1 7 Montauk Mystique D Davis

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 Strange Fruit K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Sugar and Speights J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 5-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/12 BOX, 7/8/12 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:34 AM

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 26
Oct. 26, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $62,500 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 1 Power Seeker F Geroux
PLACE 8-5 4 Dark Vector L Saez
SHOW 9-2 5 B Sudd T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 12-1 7 Runningforcash A Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 Spoiler C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Penzance F Prat

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX

RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 6 Be There T Gaffalione
PLACE 2-1 5 Showdown King L Saez
SHOW 12-1 3 Free Rambling Man G Ashton
WILD CARD 5-1 7 Macho Villa J A Torres

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Harbour Bridge B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 2 Colliers Time C Landeros

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #3 $130,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-5 6 Olga Isabel T Gaffalione
PLACE 5-2 5 Your So Sillea J Loveberry
SHOW 10-1 1 Bhoma B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD 12-1 3 Purr Sea J E Felix

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 2 Asena F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 4 Be Like Water J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #4 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 UP ON THE EDGE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 2 Up On the Edge A Achard
PLACE 12-1 7 Princess Is Olivia F Arrieta
SHOW 7-2 5 Guest of Honor F Geroux
WILD CARD 6-1 12 Classyn Connected J Talamo

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Fluid T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Lou Anna G Ashton

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 5/7/12 BOX

RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 7 Red River Magic F Arrieta
PLACE 7-2 3 Excellent Question T Gaffalione
SHOW 6-1 15 Insensitive F Arrieta
WILD CARD 9-2 1 Lady Emily Kathryn F Prat

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 12 Lady Dynamo C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Mirari L Saez

* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-15 BOX, 15-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/15 BOX, 1/3/15 BOX

RACE #6 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 COMMISSIONER OSCAR

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 7 Commissioner Oscar A Quinonez
PLACE 5-2 4 Mena T Gaffalione
SHOW 8-1 8 Metronome J Graham
WILD CARD 15-1 2 Ultimate Strike F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 5 Brilliant Man J McKee
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 10 The Rush Is On F Peterson

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX

RACE #7 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 5 Code Omaha F Prat
PLACE 9-2 10 Fortune Seller T Gaffalione
SHOW 6-1 12 Please Advise L Saez
WILD CARD 8-1 7 Copper Missile A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 1 Tough Little Nut J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Steeler Mischief R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-10 BOX, 10-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/10/12 BOX, 7/10/12 BOX

RACE #8 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 8 No Judgment R Bejarano
PLACE 6-1 5 Rocketeer T Gaffalione
SHOW 9-2 1 Charleston F Geroux
WILD CARD 3-1 11 Stop the Press B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 6 Stinger Bee L Machado
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Shakin Loose K J Asmussen

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/5/11 BOX

RACE #9 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 JEFE DE OBRA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 4 Jefe de Obra G Corrales
PLACE 7-2 11 Western Command T Gaffalione
SHOW 3-1 12 First Defender F Geroux
WILD CARD 4-1 2 Vocalize L Saez

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 5 Judge Davis V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 8 Trust Daddy F Prat

* EXACTA: 4-11 BOX, 11-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/11/12 BOX, 2/11/12 BOX

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:35 AM

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS
Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

PICKS NOTES
#1 Chantilly Moon She has kind of one-paced form, but she's probably going to get sprinted back by default with several speed types in the mix further outside. Most of those players figure to come back, and she may be plugging away the whole time while saving ground after a wide run last out.
#6 Kagero Wouldn't be surprised to see her bounce back with something a little bit better while getting back around one turn, and the show horse from the last was back to score. Think she has to be the conversation.
#2 Midnight in Prague She's back quickly while cutting the price in half, and she might be the best of the committed pace players. That leaves her in a potentially tough position while drawn inside of the rest of those forward runners, but she does have a chance here if she can just run these off their feet and discourage all the chasing types.
Race Summary Closing Day of one of my very favorite meets out there other than Fair Grounds. Chantilly Moon handled the new footing here pretty well last month, and I think the potential race flow might leave her in a spot to grind in the frame late.
Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

PICKS NOTES
#6 Santo The recent form has been solid since getting back around two turns, and I'll give him the call to hold that form again here. He moved and couldn't hang late last out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him sustain that run.
#3 Zamboni Warrior Spent a long time thinking about having this guy on top, but he should be covered on all the plays from here. I tend to like Warrior's Reward runners going short just a bit better, but this guy has the kind of running lines that I love while moving around two turns. Tactical, first-jump trip rated just off the pace? Dangerous.
#7 T Rex I like that he's really a true router in a group that has some questionable lines and sprint form, and getting back to something like the September start here might do the trick.
Race Summary Top three in here all have some appeal, but I think Santo and Zamboni Warrior cover most of the boxes I want to check in this race. T Rex can hit hard late, but he doesn't always punch home the best here.
Presque Isle Downs - Race #0

PICKS NOTES
#5 Round of Applause Hoping he'll offer a fair price in a spot where I think you can make a case for several of them, as he has been honest off the claim and proved a good fit with this kind when rallying from off the pace earlier this month. Think he can be a bit closer today.
#4 Colonel Poppy Have been a fan of his overall form this season, and he's a danger here if he can hold his form into this third start of October. Tactical speed should be in the right spot again. No arguments from me.
#6 Starship Empire He has reliable form that fits well in here, but I worry that he might be overbet with a competitive group on paper. Respect that he always shows up and has enough speed to pick a spot early.
Race Summary Put #13 Hashtag No Wonder right on top if he draws in. Round of Applause gets the call in the season finale, but I would be open to looking at the tote board in a race where I could easily consider about eight of them.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:35 AM

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS
Laurel Park - Race #2

PICKS NOTES
#6 REDFIRE (7-2) All the ingredients for a first-out victory in a field that could be loaded with talent.
#4 PRINCESS BLAME (9-2) Dueled outside of the favorite before trip sitter passed by in solid debut.
#7 VENOMOUS VIXEN (5-2) Russell firster fired three bullets during a busy work schedule since August.
Race Summary REDFIRE debuts for a barn on a 9-for-28 run with 2-year-olds. She is the daughter of Curlin, who ranks fourth in North America this year with $13.8 million in progeny earnings, and her dam, Stradivarius, ran second in MSW company at Fair Grounds in her debut. Bet to win and place.
Laurel Park - Race #4

PICKS NOTES
#6 MAGIC MICHAEL (3-1) Looks to upgrade stakes placings into first victory since 2021.
#4 EVERETT’S SONG (8-5) Rallied to win last two allowances on fast track, can use his speed today.
#1 OUTLIER (7-2) Starts at eighth track in last six months, nearing a half million in earnings.
Race Summary MAGIC MICHAEL, multiple stakes-placed at this distance and a Grade 3 winner going longer, hopped at the break and finished out of the money in a well-bet comeback off a year layoff. He should be in close striking range with an alert start in a field void of quality speed. Bet to win and place.
Laurel Park - Race #6

PICKS NOTES
#8 GOODTOBEIRISH (10-1) Debuted on turf, worked bullet on main track, presumably with blinkers on.
#1 SENATOR KELLY (9-5) Troubled starts magnified by rail draw, drops in second start off shelf.
#9 BRIDGE TO SUCCESS (2-1) Hard-ridden to keep up with dueling leaders, gets class relief.
Race Summary GOODTOBEIRISH, one of several class-droppers in here, stepped it up a notch with a :48-1/5 workout from the gate since his debut. His dam wad 14/3-6-2 and a $182k earner, though both stakes-placed showings were on turf. Bet to win and place.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:36 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Syracuse/Virginia Tech Over 47 Points

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:37 AM

Free play from Totals4UThursday Free Selection: Anaheim Ducks/Boston Bruins under 6

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:37 AM

Free play from #1 SportsThursday's Free Play: Montreal Canadiens - 130

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:37 AM

Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Thursday: Minnesota Wild - 135

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:37 AM

Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Thursday
LA LAKERS

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:38 AM

Free play from Tim DonaghyTim Donaghy Free Play for Thursday:
Take the Carolina Hurricanes (NHL)

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:38 AM

Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, October 26, 2023
CFB
114. Georgia Southern -1 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:38 AM

Free play from Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Edmonton Oilers +105 over NY Rangers

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:38 AM

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday :Take PHILADELPHIA/MILWAUKEE OVER the total of 224.5

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:38 AM

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Thursday Free Play
Phoenix +2 NBA

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:39 AM

Free play from Teyas SportsFREE PICK 10/26/23 NHL MONTREAL PL

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:39 AM

Free play from Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Thursday - Minnesota (NHL) -135

Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 13-11

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:39 AM

Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take NBA Milwaukee Over 224.5

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:39 AM

Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: PHILADELPHIA/MILWAUKEE OVER the total of 224.5

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:39 AM

Free play from Atlantic SportsThursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Seattle Kraken + 170

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:40 AM

Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 1287-859 run THURS NHL Colorado-135

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:40 AM

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Thursday: PHILADELPHIA/MILWAUKEE OVER the total of 224.5

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:40 AM

Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for Thursday: Lakers

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:41 AM

Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR THURSDAY!
NBA Milwaukee/Philadelphia OVER the total of 224.5 points!

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:41 AM

Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Brighton & Hove Albion-315 (Soccer)

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:42 AM

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Avalanche-127

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:42 AM

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Avalanche-129

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:42 AM

AAA Sports

1* FREE PLAY Detroit+107

We think that the Red Wings are worthy of a "second look" in this matchup. Winnipeg is 3-3, while Detroit is 5-1-1-0. That includes going 3-0-1 at home. The Jets are 1-1 on the road. We think Detroit bounces back at home after a 5-4 OT loss to Seattle. The Wings' offense has been fantastic so far and we think Winnipeg will have a hard time matching pace. At this price, Detroit is FOR SURE worth the price of admission in this matchup in our opinion; consider the Red Wings on Thursday night!

AAA Sports

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:43 AM

Sean Murphy

Thursday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' 47 -109 between Syracuse and Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There was a time when primetime 'under' plays were one of our go-to's in games played here in Blacksburg. While that has changed over the years with the Hokies no longer a true defensive powerhouse, I do think we can go back to the well in this spot against Syracuse. Both of these teams will be looking to take care of the football and relieve the pressure on their talented dual-threat quarterbacks with smart play on offense on Thursday. I think that lends itself to a run-happy gameplan from both. Syracuse will certainly be looking to shorten proceedings in an underdog role following three straight blowout losses. Of course, Virginia Tech probably hasn't forgotten the 41-36 home loss it suffered against Syracuse in the two teams' most recent meeting almost two years to the day. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 30-14 with the Orange coming off a loss by 21 or more points against a conference opponent. The 'under' is also a long-term 35-18 with the Hokies playing at home with the total set between 42.5 and 49 points. Take the under.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:43 AM

Mike Lundin

Mike Lundin's Wild/Flyers NHL Free Pick

The Minnesota Wild are averaging a healthy 4.4 goals per game, but they've struggled on the other end of the ice with an average of 4.2 goals allowed per game.

The Flyers are shorthanded on the blue line, and they've allowed a total of eight goals in losses to Dallas and Vegas in their past two games.

The Wild have scored 14 goals in their last three games and I don't think the Flyers can keep up with Minnesota's scoring.

2* FREE PICK ON MINNESOTA WILD-119

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:44 AM

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Flyers+115

*All NHL picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:44 AM

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play on Dallas Stars ML* The Dallas Stars defense and goaltender are elite. It is going to be very hard to generate high quality scoring chances against this group this season. Toronto is very talented, but they aren't nearly as good away from home. Toronto has given up 20 goals already this year. Dallas has given up only 11. The Stars are priced at a discount here. Take Dallas.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:44 AM

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Bucs+10

No analysis provided.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:45 AM

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Bills-9.5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:45 AM

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Bills-9

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:45 AM

Cole Faxon

FREE PLAY on Bucs/Bills under 43.5

ConleyPicks

10-26-2023, 10:46 AM

Ray Monohan

UNDER 43.5 Bucs/Bills

In Week 8, it's the Buccaneers (3-3) versus the Bills (4-3) on Thursday Night Football, and you can catch the action on Amazon Prime Video. They'll be facing off at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, New York, with kickoff set for 8:15pm ET. When it comes to betting in Week 9 of the NFL, here are the numbers: The Moneyline (ML) offers the Buccaneers at +320 and the Bills at -405 for those who prefer straight up bets. Additionally, we've got the ATS lines, with the Bills favored by -8.5 points, and the Over/Under (O/U) is set between 42.5 up to 43.5.

In their recent outings, Buffalo suffered a 29-25 defeat on the road against the Patriots, while the Bucs had a disappointing 16-13 loss to the Falcons at home. Weather won't be a factor. Game time temps call for low 70's, and no rain.

For starters the Bucs can't run the ball, so that makes them 1-dimensional. Buffalo, while banged up should be licking their chops to come after Baker on Thursday in Full Old School Buffalo Blitzkrieg mode. (Is Bruce Smith available?) Baker is going to have to go full on check-down Baker to move the ball on Thursday night.

I have to admit I don't have a lot of faith in the Bills offense either. Josh Allen has been pretty putrid the last few weeks, and if you dig into the Bucs defensive stats they're actually not that bad a D. Expect lots of stalled drives, punts, and hopefully no turnovers creating short field's for the offense.

Some trends to note, the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's L7 games, and in 8 of Tampa Bay's L10 games on the road. On the other side, a random trend, but one that does apply here, the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's L5 games played on a Thursday.

It seems like the obvious play, let's hope it's a winning pick!

We're backing the UNDER on Thursday Night Football.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

TNF 5* FREE NFL O/U Play