Saturday 10/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=sa1028zf.pdf&exp=10/30/2023&pds=SA_-_10/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=SA&SAP=FREEPICS)


Santa Anita Park - Race 6

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 6-7-8) $0.50 Late Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9) / $0.10 Superfecta/ $1 Super Hi 5


Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 3:39P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. TAKE CHARGE CURLY is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIZ TOK: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CANELO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TAKE CHARGE CURLY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ALL THE KING'S MEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CATHEDRAL LIGHT: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.



8

TIZ TOK

5/2


6/1




9

CANELO

3/1


6/1




3

TAKE CHARGE CURLY

4/1


7/1




7

ALL THE KING'S MEN

3/1


8/1




6

CATHEDRAL LIGHT

12/1


9/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

TIZ TOK

8


5/2

Front-runner

86


86


71.4


79.2


74.2




2

ROAD OF LOVE

2


15/1

Alternator/Front-runner

67


63


82.5


38.9


27.4




7

ALL THE KING'S MEN

7


3/1

Stalker

89


78


78.8


64.9


56.9




6

CATHEDRAL LIGHT

6


12/1

Stalker

88


80


76.8


73.0


63.0




9

CANELO

9


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

88


76


78.7


72.0


67.5




3

TAKE CHARGE CURLY

3


4/1

Trailer

83


80


59.8


73.6


63.1




5

WARRENS WORLD

5


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

78


74


95.7


59.7


45.7




4

STAR PROSPECT

4


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

89


78


72.6


69.4


62.4




1

TOP GUN CLASSIC

1


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

72


68


60.0


60.0


42.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour WagersPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=eqc1028zf.pdf&exp=10/30/2023&pds=EQC_-_10/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=EQC&SAP=FREEPICS)


Golden Hour Wagers - Race 4

Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Double


Optional Claiming $25,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 103 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 5:26P


GG - R9 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (CAL-BRED OR CAL-SIRED HORSES THAT HAVE WON THE OPEN FIRST CONDITION ALLOWANCE RACE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MUST CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2 LBS., UNLESS ENTERED FOR THE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE.).





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ANITANEWMERCEDES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highe st TrackMaster Power Rating. HARMON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. A MAN'S MAN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LAW ABIDING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



1

ANITANEWMERCEDES

5/2


4/1




10

HARMON

10/1


6/1




6

A MAN'S MAN

4/1


8/1




4

LAW ABIDING

15/1


10/1































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

ANITANEWMERCEDES

1


5/2

Front-runner

103


99


96.0


98.6


95.1




4

LAW ABIDING

4


15/1

Alternator/Front-runner

94


95


88.9


79.3


65.3




6

A MAN'S MAN

6


4/1

Stalker

99


91


99.0


98.0


88.5




3

RODRIGOKNOWS

3


12/1

Stalker

91


86


84.1


81.5


66.5




10

HARMON

10


10/1

Alternator/Stalker

105


96


91.2


102.6


96.6




8

BUENISIMO

8


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

99


100


80.8


92.2


77.7




9

COUSIN RICHIE

9


12/1

Trailer

97


97


99.9


89.4


79.4




7

ECOLOGIST

7


6/1

Trailer

99


93


71.8


91.2


80.7




5

HOUSE OF LORDS

5


6/1

Trailer

100


95


68.6


90.8


80.8




2

MOOGIE SON

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

93


90


79.3


83.1


68.1

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race TrackPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=cmr1028zz.htm&exp=10/30/2023&pds=CMR_-_10/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=CMR&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 13 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 MILITARY PALACE 3/1




# 6 FULL OF MISCHIEF 7/2




# 4 KID BLUE 9/2




MILITARY PALACE has a solid shot to take this race. Could best this group of horses here, showing respectable figures of late. With a very good 78 Equibase speed fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. Seems to have a respectable class edge based on the recent company kept. FULL OF MISCHIEF - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. Gabriel has him trained solidly to break promptly out of the starting gate. KID BLUE - He must be considered given the very good speed numbers. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved swiftly to the lead recently.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=mvr1028zm.htm&exp=10/30/2023&pds=MVR_-_10/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=MVR&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:02pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,900 Class Rating: 86

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 MASTEROFTHEHOUNDS (ML=5/1)
#3 POWERFUL PHIL (ML=8/1)


MASTEROFTHEHOUNDS - This jockey and handler have a lucrative ROI when they combine forces. Looking at the information on all of these ponies, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a good look at this thoroughbred. I like that recent outing on October 11th at Thistledown where he finished first. I like the piece of information that this gelding's last speed rating, 87, is tops in this bunch. POWERFUL PHIL - Have to make this gelding a solid contender; he comes off a solid effort on Oct 11th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 RECKLESS L J (ML=3/1), #2 HENRY THE CAT (ML=7/2), #5 PRIVATE DRIVE (ML=6/1),

RECKLESS L J - This morning-line favorite may be out of form without any recent morning drills. HENRY THE CAT - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs lately. Improbable to see him doing it in today's event either. PRIVATE DRIVE - In the last affair this racer finished fourth. Doesn't look promising for his chances today. Will not be easy for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MASTEROFTHEHOUNDS - A tried and true angle. Take a sprinter in the third and fourth start after a layoff. That's the time when they peak.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 MASTEROFTHEHOUNDS is the play if we get odds of 8/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=fan1028zm.htm&exp=10/30/2023&pds=FAN_-_10/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=FAN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #1 - Post: 7:30pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 54

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 TAP THE SKY (ML=3/1)
#6 TIGGER ATTACK (ML=7/2)


TAP THE SKY - I know he'll be way back, but he's got a terrific move at the top of the stretch. This colt's last fig recorded on Sep 20th is utmost in last race speed figs. TIGGER ATTACK - Last time, was entered in a race at FanDuel Horse Racing in a race with a class rating of 59. Dropping drastically in class figure this time out puts him in a solid position in this event. Weatherly is right back for another race today after riding on board this animal for the initial time on September 30th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I like that latest contest on September 30th at FanDuel Horse Racing where he finished third. This animal picks up a lot of cash per start. Number one in this clash.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SOLICITOR (ML=4/1), #1 MAD WISH (ML=5/1), #2 DANCIN' MOLLY (ML=6/1),

SOLICITOR - Awfully tough to wager on this questionable contender when he hasn't been showing any signs of life lately. MAD WISH - Just cannot wager on this less than sharp equine. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on August 15th. When examining today's class rating, he will have to register a much better speed rating than last out to battle in this dirt route. DANCIN' MOLLY - This horse hasn't been coming close at the finish lately. Don't feel this runner will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class rating.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 TAP THE SKY to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase SpecialPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=eqd1028zz.htm&exp=10/30/2023&pds=EQD_-_10/28/2023&var=RACE_DATE=10/28/2023;TRACK_CODE=EQD&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 88

KEE - R10 - FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE AND ONE-SIXTEENTH ON THE MAIN TRACK.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 12 MO CALIENTE 6/1




# 13 UNO MAS BOURBON 8/1




# 11 VIVALDI 4/1




MO CALIENTE has a respectable shot to take this race. Could best this group of horses here, showing strong figs of late. Is a solid choice - given the 92 speed figure from his most recent race. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in turf route races make this animal a definite contender. UNO MAS BOURBON - Should compete well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. The price could be right on this one. VIVALDI - Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. I would give my vote to this colt on the jockey and handler numbers alone.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at ColumbusAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 62

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED AT THE 2023 COLUMBUS MEET AND NOT FINISHED 1ST, 2ND OR THIRD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 INCITATUS 5/2




# 6 SILVER AND ACES 7/2




# 1 EL DIABLO GRANDE 6/1




INCITATUS seems to be the bet in here. Trainers don't bring ponies back this soon for no reason. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group of animals. With a reliable 67 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. SILVER AND ACES - This horse has to be in sound condition coming back to race so quickly. Expect a sound effort with the class drop. EL DIABLO GRANDE - Wagerers ought to take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field. Has been running soundly lately and will most likely be on or close to the lead early on.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Delaware Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 CHICA RABIOSA (ML=5/2)
#5 NURSE RACHETT (ML=8/1)


CHICA RABIOSA - Sanchez-Salomon drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to figure that this one has a good chance at this level. Look for this filly to show better right here. Last affair at Laurel finishing seventh on an off track is no indication of her true talent. NURSE RACHETT- I'm looking forward to this race horse to run a good one this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MS BOOMBASTIC (ML=9/5), #2 CAGED PIXIE (ML=7/2), #6 BEAUTIFUL STAR (ML=6/1),

MS BOOMBASTIC - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but she falls short regularly. This horse just hasn't looked sharp of late. CAGED PIXIE - That was just not a very good showing in the last affair. BEAUTIFUL STAR - Improbable that this animal will finish better than she did last time out when placing ninth.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 CHICA RABIOSA to win at post-time odds of 6/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Trial - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 103

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 JESS GOOD WINE 1/1




# 2 MARKET ANALYSIS 5/2




# 9 SAN LORENZO IVORY 9/2




JESS GOOD WINE is the top bet in this race. Has to be considered against this group displaying very strong figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 99 under similar conditions. With one of the most favorable jockeys in terms of profits at the window, don't count this gelding out. Will probably compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. MARKET ANALYSIS - Ramirez and Rodriguez are a strong pair for profits. He has a good opportunity for this event as conditioner, Rodriguez, has sharp win clip with horses going this distance. SAN LORENZO IVORY - Looks strong for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figures in short races as of late. This gelding has a very good win percent in short races.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 1

Exacta/Trifecta/Superfecta/Daily Double (Races 1-2)/Pick 3 (Races1-3) Pick 5 (Races 1-5)


Claiming $20,000 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 5:15P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 28, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BALLINONABUDJET: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse has run a Good Race with in the last 30 days. MUNQAD: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). RUNWAY MAG IC: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. CHAPEL BARN: Horse ranks in the top three i n average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.



12

BALLINONABUDJET

12/1


9/2




11

MUNQAD

9/2


5/1




3

RUNWAY MAGIC

2/1


8/1




7

CHAPEL BARN

15/1


10/1






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




11

MUNQAD

11


9/2

Front-runner

102


86


79.9


78.3


69.3




3

RUNWAY MAGIC

3


2/1

Front-runner

100


91


67.3


81.2


66.7




7

CHAPEL BARN

7


15/1

Stalker

93


81


83.8


78.0


66.5




6

JOLLY TOMMY

6


10/1

Stalker

86


89


58.1


82.5


71.5




1

SAMMY DANSEUR JR.

1


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

90


85


69.0


84.4


73.9




8

GET THEM JUSTIN

8


15/1

Alternator/Stalker

91


83


52.1


86.3


77.8




2

HARDCORE FOLKLORE

2


20/1

Trailer

89


77


49.4


75.0


57.5




10

MACHINEGUNPREACHER

10


15/1

Trailer

88


82


31.3


43.6


21.1




4

WARRIOR'S RUN

4


6/1

Trailer

84


85


27.9


65.1


52.6




12

BALLINONABUDJET

12


12/1

Trailer

100


93


20.9


99.5


97.5




9

PREMIUM

9


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

76


71


67.6


51.2


30.7




5

FAR BEYOND

5


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

90


77


48.8


75.6


60.1

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 2

EXACTA &TRIFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 2-3) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)


Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 81 •Purse: $52,000 • Post: 12:56


(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.





Contenders



Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * TIRICO: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



4

TIRICO

3/5


3/5






























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

TRUSTME IAMADOCTOR

1


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


73.9


56.9


50.9




4

TIRICO

4


3/5

Trailer

83


81


62.6


76.8


73.8




3

TAP YOUR HEART

3


12/1

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


73.0


47.4


42.4




6

XCELLENT MEN

6


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


110.9


19.9


13.9































Unknown Running Style: NAPOLEON'S WAR (5/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jaime - Trainer: Wagner Karin], THE QUEENS MAGE (6/1) [Jockey: Batista Jose A - Trainer: Morici Diane D], CLANCY FANCY (15/1) [Jockey: Carrasco Victor R - Trainer: De Paz Horacio].

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Keeneland - Race #10 - Post: 5:48pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#12 MO CALIENTE (ML=6/1)
#6 DOMINGO (ML=12/1)


MO CALIENTE - This colt has the top turf figure in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this animal has the highest Equibase speed figure for the dist-surf. The entrant with the top average class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill. That 92 fig this colt registered in his last affair tells me he's a big time player this time. DOMINGO - Using this jockey/conditioner combination is a smart move. This one's dam (Thundering Emilia) has a great win percent (67 percent) with first timers, so I expect a lot out of this mount.

Vulnerable Contenders: #16 REAL MEN VIOLIN (ML=2/1), #8 ACT OF MUTINY (ML=3/1), #11 VIVALDI (ML=4/1),

REAL MEN VIOLIN - Registered a most unsatisfactory speed fig last race out in a Maiden Special race on Oct 12th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. ACT OF MUTINY - Improbable that the speed rating he earned on September 7th will hold up in this race. VIVALDI - Don't believe this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #12 MO CALIENTE to win. Have to have odds of at least 8/5 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,12]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

12 with 6 with [3,8,16] Total Cost: $3



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

12 with 6 with [2,3,8,11,16] with [2,3,8,11,16] Total Cost: $20



SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:

[6,12] with [6,12] with [2,3,8,16] with [2,3,8,16] with [2,3,8,16] Total Cost: $48

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Loop

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 3


5
5
MACHING MILLIONS
4/1
Piwniuk, Blake F - 51
355.11


4
4
GO ON BOW BOW
6/1
Fillion, Marc J - 14
334.96


2
2
B SPECIAL
5/1
Mason, Darryl - 16
299.66


1
1
JAY DEES SCOOTER
8/1
Manning, Cory G - 2
285.33


6
6
WESTWARD ANGELS
3/1
Remillard, Richard A - 21
276.53


3
3
SEEK AND DESTROY
2/1
Mason, Paula I - 19
261.66

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at MeadowlandsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 5 - Post: 8:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$9000 - N/W $3,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 4 GOOD INVESTMENT 5/1




# 1 ALTA BLUES A 4/1




# 6 BIZYS BEATLE 8/1





GOOD INVESTMENT looks good to best this field. Overall stats appear really strong. Can't throw out at this point. If performance in the last contest is any indication, this horse will have a very good shot here. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. With one of the finest drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this gelding out of the contest. ALTA BLUES A - The brain trust gives this interesting entrant a respectable chance to take this race, class figures are tops in the field of horses. Should be in the hunt again for this one, looking to improve that already high lifetime winning percentage. BIZYS BEATLE - Quevedo has been able to get this horse to perform when sending to the post. Always worth a look. This race horse earned a respectable speed fig in last race. Looks in good form to come right back.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 5


6
6
ARMYCAPTIN HANOVER
4/1
Hoerdt, Kelly O - 9
484.16


1
1
WINE THIRTY
8/1
Hennessy, Michael R - 16
479.93


5
5
TIEMPO HANOVER
3/1
Campbell, J Brandon - 25
454.07


2
2
ICY BLUE SCOOTER
3/2
Sobey, Nathan K - 20
452.54


4
4
WHIPLASH SMILE
6/1
Miller, Thomas Michael - 8
419.15


3
3
OUTLAW GUNSABLAZIN
10/1
Kelly, David A - 20
386.30

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Shenandoah DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 3 - Post: 1:36 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$6000 - UNITED STATES HARNESS DRIVERS CLUB NON WINNERS $1,501


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 4 MONEYORROSES 8/5




# 5 INFINITE WARRIOR 3/1




# 6 TEXAS TERROR N 4/1





MONEYORROSES unquestionably is tough to overlook as the entrant to beat in this event. Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 78 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Racing well, recorded a clear-cut TrackMaster Speed Rating in his last affair (72). Recent rankings for the driver - 22 percent win - make this gelding a top pick in the bunch. INFINITE WARRIOR - Has the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 83 speed fig. Clearly the class of the group of horses with an average rating of 83. A nice selection. TEXAS TERROR N - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win percentage. Some trainers just fit better with certain entrants. That seems to be the case in this race with Erzene. A very good wager.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 9 - Post: 9:39 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$8000 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W OF 3 RACES OR $30000. LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 6 TOP SHELF 8/5




# 1 MISS DEW WRITE 4/1




# 9 BETTERNOTMACHME 5/2





TOP SHELF has a competitive shot to take this contest. Overall ratings appear good. Can't throw out at this point. This contender will have to be a bet, based on the very good driver/trainer win figure. Extremely profitable driver-handler match, with a 33 return on investment when working with one another. MISS DEW WRITE - The panel of smart guys will always toss in a interesting entrant from the 1 hole here at Flamboro Downs, always worth a look. BETTERNOTMACHME - This race horse may have some hidden form, a top prize would be a pleasant surprise. That 72 TrackMaster speed fig clocked in the most recent race puts this solid standardbred in the mix in this one.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Pocono Downs

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 12


3
3
FOCUS POCUS
5/2
Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 18
524.65


8
8
MAX
10/1
Warren, Ridge - 9
514.33


2
2
ROBBIE PEV
12/1
Kakaley, Matt - 21
513.55


5
5
BLENHEIM
3/1
Napolitano, Anthony - 16
503.77


4
4
MYSTICAL WYNN
6/1
Miller, Marcus - 10
492.65


1
1
ON THE HOUSE
4/1
Buter, Tyler - 16
475.42


7
7
YES
9/2
Allard, Simon - 14
451.22


6
6
STAR TRACK HANOVER
15/1
Pantaleano, Jim - 10
446.09

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 1 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$5500 - FILLIES & MARES $6000 CLAIMING


CONSORTIUM CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 2 GO CLARA GO 9/5




# 5 SWEET PINK 5/2




# 7 SUDDEN CHANGE N 9/2





All signs point to GO CLARA GO for the pick. The group knows that speed is King in harness racing. This solid standardbred will unlock our way to a nice win. This standardbred looks very good considering the high class ratings. Not a good idea to throw out of any exotics. Can't forget the connections here, a 26 winning percent, one of the top at getting into the winners circle. SWEET PINK - Earned a 76 TrackMaster Speed Rating last out. A duplicate race here should get the trip to the winner's circle here. SUDDEN CHANGE N - Davis will be looking to dominate this time, has been winning a lot most recently. Win percentage this last month is a sparkling 22. The brain trust noted a huge event out of this fine animal last time. Looking for a repeat of that to score.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rosecroft Raceway

P#

PP

HORSE NAME

M/L

DRIVER - WIN%

POINTS



RACE 10


5
5
ILDERTON AM
6/1
Walters, Justin - 12
493.84


6
6
MITTNITE DELIGHT
7/2
Porter, Trae - 16
492.82


2
2
FULL SEND
9/2
Foster, Russell - 19
478.26


1
1
TAPPED TEEN
4/1
Roberts, Jonathan - 22
476.01


9
9
DERBY DOG HANOVER
3/1
Davis, Eric - 9
470.09


7
7
TRY LINE
6/1
Thompson, Jason - 15
461.62


4
4
DOCDOR MICKEY
8/1
Roglitz, Jacob - 2
445.61


3
3
RUSTY'S HOUDINI
12/1
Milby, Frank - 11
431.37


8
8
BUCKEYE N
10/1
Moyer, Jared - 8
431.00

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 28KEENELAND


Scott Hazelton
Tom Leach
Jeremy Plonk
Caton Bredar
Kim Nelson


1
7 Born Flawless
5 City of Clouds
4 Jewelstown
7 Born Flawless
8 Dreaming of Smarty
5 City of Clouds
7 Born Flawless
6 Roman Giant
8 Dreaming of Smarty
7 Born Flawless
8 Dreaming of Smarty
2 Bruce Banner
4 Jewelstown
7 Born Flawless
8 Dreaming of Smarty


2
3 Raguel
6 Transcendental
8 Publius
8 Publius
3 Raguel
7 Lat Long
5 J Bird Time
3 Raguel
7 Lat Long
2 Disattached
7 Lat Long
8 Publius
8 Publius
7 Lat Long
5 J Bird Time


3
4 Bromley
6 King Ice
3 Dubyuhnell
3 Dubyuhnell
4 Bromley
5 Denington
2 Promise Me a Ride
6 King Ice
4 Bromley
4 Bromley
7 Curly Jack
5 Denington
7 Curly Jack
6 King Ice
2 Promise Me a Ride


4
4 Foxfire
12 Howl
10 Insensitive
12 Howl
4 Foxfire
1 Musical Prayer
5 Rubia
7 Bourbon to Blame
12 Howl
12 Howl
4 Foxfire
7 Bourbon to Blame
5 Rubia
4 Foxfire
9 Crushed Ice


5
11 Truly Quality
9 Clever Thought
8 Jungfrau
9 Clever Thought
8 Jungfrau
5 Hilliard
11 Truly Quality
5 Hilliard
9 Clever Thought
9 Clever Thought
8 Jungfrau
11 Truly Quality
9 Clever Thought
11 Truly Quality
3 Spirit Maker


6
8 Maycocks Bay
1 Normandy Hero
2 Valentine Candy
7 Cowes
3 Royal Slipper
1 Normandy Hero
3 Royal Slipper
2 Valentine Candy
1 Normandy Hero
7 Cowes
5 Patriot Spirit
1 Normandy Hero
4 Glengarry
5 Patriot Spirit
1 Normandy Hero


7
2 Traegar
9 O Besos
10 Caddo River
2 Traegar
8 Top Gunner
1 Fortin Hill
1 Fortin Hill
2 Traegar
4 Chasing Time
1 Fortin Hill
9 O Besos
7 Pro Oxidant
4 Chasing Time
8 Top Gunner
2 Traegar


8
9 More Than Looks
4 Smokey Mandate
3 Dude N Colorado (GB)
1 Talk of the Nation
9 More Than Looks
4 Smokey Mandate
9 More Than Looks
5 Mo Stash
1 Talk of the Nation
4 Smokey Mandate
1 Talk of the Nation
10 Appraise (IRE)
10 Appraise (IRE)
9 More Than Looks
5 Mo Stash


9
6 Speed Bias
1 Film Star
8 Law Professor
11 Dash Attack
1 Film Star
10 Trademark
7 Il Miracolo
9 O'Connor (CHI)
8 Law Professor
10 Trademark
12 Best Actor
9 O'Connor (CHI)
8 Law Professor
10 Trademark
3 King Fury


10
12 Mo Caliente
4 Time Song
2 Sheriff Joe
2 Sheriff Joe
5 Deadpan
8 Act of Mutiny
4 Time Song
8 Act of Mutiny
11 Vivaldi
8 Act of Mutiny
4 Time Song
5 Deadpan
4 Time Song
11 Vivaldi
12 Mo Caliente

[ConleyPicks]

Scott HazeltonEnjoy closing day of the Fall Meet at Keeneland! We can't wait to see you all back in the spring!

1st Race
7-5-4

#7 Born Flawless six another win after winning his last race, and was claimed by Tom Amoss who's had great success This meet at Keeneland with horses that were claimed in their most recent run. #5 City of Clouds comes in from Thistledown in Ohio and drops in class with some solid form. #4 Jewelstown claim last time out by trainer, Steve Asmussen, and his son Keith rides today. Should move up off the claim.


2nd Race
3-6-8

#3 Raguel from a far outside post position it could never get over on debut and was the beaten favorite that day. will run better than eight to one in the morning Lyne suggests. #6 Transcendental makes his debut today and his bread for the turf and his trained by Jonathon Thomas who's good with debut runners. #8 Publius ran well on debut from a wide post in the same race as the number three horse that's in this race. another horse with upside if you're willing to forgive his only start.


3rd Race
4-6-3

#4 Bromley should appreciate this longer distance today and stay at the trip and outrun his 8 to 1 morning line. #6 King Ice will come flying late and will love the added distance. #3 Dubyuhnell had some brilliant races last year but his last two races earlier in the year were nothing close to that and he comes into this race off of a seven month layoff. He may get over bet and he has some serious questions to answer today.


4th Race
4-12-10

#4 Foxfire ran very well on debut, and more of that will go along way today against this group of competition. #12 Howl day with some fast workouts coming into this race for trainer Brad Cox, another one prime to outrun the 8 to 1 morning line. #10 Insensitive makes the second start of the meet here at Keeneland and his last he was the beaten favorite running a good second. You have to respect.



5th Race
11-9-8

#11 Truly Quality is four for four in the money with a win two starts back and a recent good run at Kentucky Downs. Absolutely the one to beat in my mind in this race. #9 Clever Thought exits stakes company which might make him the favorite. I do think he's capable, but may get overplayed in the end. #8 Jungfrau needs to break better, and if he does, could put together a much better effort today at a longer distance than his last race.



6th Race
8-1-2

#8 Maycocks Bay ran a giant race his most recent start on a wet track and even prior to that. Ran a good second on a fast track. I think he's more than capable with this outside draw with the drawing post one. Who is #1 Normandy Hero who draws that tough post but has one from post one and his last race which came on October 7 right here at Keeneland this meeting. But this is a step up in competition no question. #2 Valentine Candy was also in that same race on October 7 here at Keeneland and ran a good second. More than capable off of that tough hard, fought effort, he put forth.


7th Race
2-9-10

#2 Traeger has not raced in nine months but comes in from Southern California and I don't think he would be here at Keeneland if he wasn't ready to go off the layoff and he's run some very big races in his career top horses in Southern California. #9 O Besos cut back in distance, and will run on late, especially at the seven furlong distance. I know the one prime to outrun the 10 to 1 morning line odds put next to him. #10 Caddo River has made over $800,000 and his his career and I think the cutback and distance will really help him today.


8th Race
9-4-3

#9 More Than Looks might be the most likely winner of the day and that's crazy to say considering this is the featured race at Keeneland on closing day. But his win last time out of Churchill Downs was so I catching an impressive. It's hard to think that if he can replicate that kind of a run that he loses this race. #4 Smokey Mandate was second behind the horse mentioned above in that common race, so has to be respected, but has a lot to improve upon, in order to win, but more than capable of finishing in the top three. #3 Dude N Colorado is battle, tested in stakes Company, and one stake back in March at Gulfstream Park. Should be part of the pace, which might be very fast today if everyone stays true to form, and even further the case to be made for #9 More Than Looks.


9th Race
6-1-8

#6 Speed Bias has a much bigger chance than his 20 to 1 morning line suggests. He nearly won the grade 3 Pimlico special back in the spring and he's running against some of the best horses in the older handicap division this year. I've like this horse since I saw him in Maryland, in grade 3 event and I like him even more because he should be a good price. #1 Film Star might be the now horse versus this group and he does have a win here at Keeneland and he's got good speed from the inside. #8 Law Professor should just track off the pace which will have them in a good spot at this 1 mile and 1/8 distance.



10th Race
12-4-2

#12 Mo Caliente ran much better in his most recent race, and that was the first time he went long and the first time he wore blinkers. #4 Time Song moves over to dirt for the first time which these connections have had good success with pedigree like this on the turf after failed dirt tries. #2 Sheriff Joe comes out of a very live race at Kentucky Downs, and it has to be respected as he tries turf for the second time in his young career.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 28, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Mandatory payouts in all wagering pools will be in play on closing day of the Fall Meet as the stakes schedule includes the Grade 2 Fayette, the Grade 3 Bryan Station and the Bowman Mill Stakes. The Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be on Races 6,8,10.

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione started slow opening weekend, but has finished with an absolute flourish, winning 4 races Thursday and 3 more on Friday to all but clinch the leading rider title. Brad Cox has poured it on closing week to secure the trainer crown.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: A 40% chance of showers is in the forecast with high temps in the upper 60s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Dual-condition claimers open the early pick five at 7 furlongs on dirt. Favorites won 12 of 25 claiming races at the current meet coming into Friday Of the 6 dual-condition claimers this season (for non-winners of 3 lifetime or open to any 3-year-old), wins have been split with Churchill and Horseshoe Indianapolis each accounting for 2. Of the 16 claiming sprints this meet, only 4 were adding distance and 3 of 4 at this trip ran 7F plus last time. Born Flawless comes out of a 7F heat for a Tom Amoss barn whose 3 wins at the meet include 2 dirt sprints.


2nd Race
Two-year-old turf maiden special weights route over 1-1/16 miles to start the early pick four. Also note Race 10 will be a split division of this race. We’ve had 75 Fall Meet two-year-old turf MSW routes over the years coming into Saturday, and this is a big-time longshot division. The average winner has been 9.5-to-1 with more winners (23) over 10-1 than favorites (22). Of those 22 longshot winners, 16 of them were either first-time starters or sprinters stretching out – so the public has overemphasized route experience in these. Kentucky Downs preppers are slightly best, 19-16-13 in victories, over first-timers and Churchill preppers. The average winner in these races is about 2-3/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, about a half-length closer to the front than all Keeneland turf routes in our database. A trends bomb fit could be the only stretch-out horses here in J Bird Time for a Dale Romans barn that typically does well at Kee Fall with 2YOs routing. First-time starters Disattached and Transcendental offer historical appeal. Certainly respect the third by Lat Long here Oct. 14 on dirt vs. Kentucky Derby winner Mage’s impressive kid brother Dornoch. Raguel goes for a Brendan Walsh barn that won a similar race here Friday.


3rd Race
Allowance performers square off at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. We’ve had 19 dirt ALW races at the meet, favorites winning 7 and only 1 winner reaching double-digit odds. Early speed has been effective this meet in the 7 previous races at 9F dirt, an average winner just a length off the lead after the opening half-mile. Promise Me a Ride looks to be potential controlling speed for the meet’s runaway leading trainer brad Cox. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled for wins with 6 each, but CD runners hold a 4-1 edge in route ALW races from just 8 offered, good news for Bromley and Denington (the latter for trainer Kenny McPeek, who won a similar race here Friday).


4th Race
Elder maiden special weight sprinters battle 6 furlongs. Seven of 8 such races at the meet have been won by horses 4-1 or less, including 4 favorites after Friday’s opener. Seven exited preps in Kentucky (including a run-back at the meet winner Friday, others split evenly 2 each from Churchill, Ellis & Kentucky Downs). Debut runners account for only 3 of 56 elder MSW races on dirt in Fall Meets over the years and just 1 since 2017 (Bourbon to Blame and Howl are rookies here of interest, but trying to buck a lot of history). Insensitive and Crushed Ice run back second time at the Fall Meet in a rematch, while the heating-up Kenny McPeek barn sends out CD-prepped Kid’s Last Laugh, while logical CD alumni include Foxfire and Musical Prayer. Oaklawn layoff runner Rubia has trained nicely on cue for the return and appears well-meant for Steve Asmussen. Wire-to-wire winners have been lighter than expected in 6F races this meet, but the average winner is 1.1 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, slightly farther back than historical Fall Meet trends. Good options abound in this race.


5th Race
The pick six and Keeneland Turf Pick Three kick off with a 1-3/16 miles allowance on grass. We’ve only had 19 such trips at this distance in Fall Meets during the 17 years of our database, including Friday’s offering. Only 2 winners were on the front end with two-thirds of winners 2-6 lengths back after the first half-mile (13-1 shot Callie’s Grit wired the field Friday to buck that trend). Kentucky Downs preppers own 13 of the 22 turf allowance wins after Callie’s Grit won Friday. That’s good news for KD alumni Spirit Maker, Hilliard, Our Dream Rye’d, Clever Thought and Truly Quality. Of those 19 winners, 14 last prepped at 1-1/8 miles or longer – which crosses over with the final 4 of those KD alumni listed. The strength of this race comes from that quartet.


6th Race
The 6-furlong $200,000 Bowman Mill Stakes for 2-year-olds opens the late pick five. Like its sister race, the Myrtlewood Stakes run on Friday, the Bowman Mill joined the stakes schedule in 2021 and will be renewed for a third time. Wesley Ward won the inaugural with Nakatomi and will try for a second on the strength of sharp opening day local winner Royal Slipper, a filly meeting the boys. She was the only front-running winner on the card Oct. 6, running nearly a full second faster than a similar 2YO MSW on the card. Wire-to-wire winners have been lighter than expected in 6F races this meet, but the average winner is 1.1 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, slightly farther back than historical Fall Meet trends. Steve Asmussen-Ricardo Santana team with Valentina Candy and already have a very sharp 2YO 6F winner at the meet in Booth.


7th Race
A stakes-caliber allowance sprint at 7 furlongs leads off the late pick four. We’ve had 19 dirt ALW races at the meet, favorites winning 7 and only 1 winner reaching double-digit odds. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled for wins with 6 each, but CD-prepped O Besos and Caddo River are the only reps of either venue. Only 4 of the 22 races at 7F were won by horses cutting back in distance from their last start like the pair of CD horses attempt. Fortin Hill is a Keeneland horse-for-course to watch, an eye-catching winner here in the ’23 Spring Meet when beating return rival Chasing Time. Look to early pace here as 19 of 22 races this Fall Meet at 7F were won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average winner 1 length back at that point).


8th Race
The Grade 3 $300,000 Bryan Station Stakes serves as middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. This race has had a sporadic history in the Fall Meet at Keeneland, but is in its third straight year since returning in 2021. Trainers Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher won this race in its former iteration back in 2007 and 2008 and look to reconnect the dots with Gigante and Dude N Colorado, respectively. So far this Fall Meet, the 11 turf stakes have produced an average winner just under 8-1 odds with as many 11-1 plus winners (3) as favorites (3). This meet’s 11 turf stakes have been won by 10 different jockeys and 10 different trainers, Chad Brown (Appraise) and Joel Rosiaro (Gigante) becoming the first to double up after Friday’s Valley View. Flavien Prat has been the dominant turf jockey at the meet with 9 grass wins and teams with Pride of the Nile. Turf miles have only been won once in 11 tries this meet by the half-mile leader, but the average winner is just 2-2/4 lengths back at that point, so look for stalkers.


9th Race
Dirt runners clash over 1-1/8 miles in the featured Grade 2 $350,000 Fayette Stakes. This has been a formful race since returning to dirt in 2014, particularly of late with 4 of its last 5 winners at 8-5 or less odds. No winner has topped 8-1 since 2014. The 9 winners have come from Churchill (6) and Saratoga (3) with 6 of those 9 prepping at 1-1/8 miles. Happy American and Trademark at the CD alumni exiting 9F races and fit the profile nicely. Front-runners have had exceptional success here with an average winner less than a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile (5 straight have been within 1 length of the front at that point). From a handicapping standpoint, I love the reunion between Il MIracolo and jockey Luis Saez, who has ridden that one to his best finishes. King Fury ran fourth in this race last year for a Kenny McPeek barn that has caught a hot streak at the tail end of this Fall Meet after a terribly slow start. King Fury, a local winner, is out of 2014 Raven Run winner Taris. Note: Film Star is expected to scratch and run in New York.


10th Race
Two-year-old turf maiden special weights route over 1-1/16 miles to wrap the Fall Meet and the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. This is a split division of Race 2. We’ve had 75 Fall Meet two-year-old turf MSW routes over the years coming into Saturday, and this is a big-time longshot division. The average winner has been 9.5-to-1 with more winners (23) over 10-1 than favorites (22). Of those 22 longshot winners, 16 of them were either first-time starters or sprinters stretching out – so the public has overemphasized route experience in these. Kentucky Downs preppers are slightly best, 19-16-13 in victories, over first-timers and Churchill preppers. The average winner in these races is about 2-3/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, about a half-length closer to the front than all Keeneland turf routes in our database. Time Song and Act of Mutiny both have stretch-out appeal in this race for Pletcher and McGaughey barns that have had good meets with 2YOs and turf runners, respectively. First-timers Trikari and Domingo also interest, the latter for a Brendan Walsh barn that won a similar race to this one here on Friday. Chad Brown won Friday's similar other division and looks to score the nightcap in back-to-back days, this time with Vivaldi.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton BredarComments for closing day Keeneland Saturday

1st Race
Closing day kicks off with a high priced conditioned claiming race, and the race falls to two top contenders, although there could be some surprises. 7-Born Flawless for Tom Amoss seeks his second straight win and races off the claim for a trainer who excels at the claiming game. Small bump up in class but definitely not insurmountable, the colt will likely sit close. 8-Dreaming of Smarty also races off the claim for a sharp claiming outfit. Trainer Michael Pino strikes at better than 23% off the claim, and this sophomore gets Luis Saez and was much the best at Parx in a lesser condition. Outside speed makes for quite a contest, but if the two outside top contenders go too quickly early, it sets up for a surprise.


2nd Race
2-Distached makes his debut for Todd Pletcher, and the son of Blame has been working for a while in preparation. Well bred for both turf and distance, he is one of several interesting first time starters. Of those who have a race or two under their belts, 7-Lat Long has had two useful efforts on the dirt including a Keeneland route in a particularly tough maiden field. The colt has a nice pedigree for the grass, and Kenny McPeek notched a win yesterday, with jockey BJ Hernandez, Jr. bringing home two scores. 8-Publius debuted at Kentucky Downs and closed well going a mile. The son of Constitution should appreciate the distance and the trainer/jockey combo of Cox and Gaffalione represent the leaders for the fall meet.


3rd Race
4-Bromley makes his second start following a layoff and seems to have a lot of talent. The colt put together back to back wins to start his career and was third stakes company in the spring before getting time away, with that third coming at a distance of ground. Look for him to sit an ideal stalking trip under Hall of Fame John Velazquez. 7-Curly Jack makes his first start since May and is another who dabbled in stakes company with some success. The winner of last fall's grade 3 Iroquois has failed to repeat his top form as a three-year-old but he starts anew with a drop in class and perhaps the opportunity to take advantage of a lack of early speed. 5-Denington exits stakes company and can come running late but may not get the ideal set up pace-wise.


4th Race
Yet another wide open maiden race full of interesting pedigrees and top connections. Tab the tote early for clues although 12-Howl is likely to get support at the windows as the daughter of good young sire Practical Joke races for top trainer Brad Cox and shows some very fast works in the a.m. 4-Foxfire has the benefit of a race in which she pressed a fast pace and held on for second for Cherie DeVaux who has been on a good roll nationally. 1-Musical Prayer was third in the same race after a less than smooth start. She lands in a tricky rail post but should improve with Jose Ortiz picking up the ride.


5th Race
Cox appears loaded in race 5 with 8-Jungfrau, who seems to be crying out for this 1-3/16 turf marathon. The late running gelding makes his second start since coming to Cox's barn and has run well despite difficult starts in his last few tries. 9-Clever Thought is lightly raced but consistent and exits graded stakes company. Prior to that race, the colt was second at this same level, and he's bred well for the longer distance. 11-Truly Quality is another who should love the distance as he actually ran well going farther in his most recent try at Kentucky Downs. The Jonathan Thomas runner appears a true stayer.


6th Race
In the first of out closing day stakes, 7-Cowes is an interesting price play moving turf to dirt for Wayne Catalano. The colt has a good pedigree for either surface, and he's one of the few in the group who seems capable of running from off the pace rather than needing the lead. 5-Patriot Spirit is another who can possibly stalk rather than lead, and he exits graded stakes. 1-Normandy Hero won here at Keeneland opening weekend and draws the rail seeking his third lifetime win.


7th Race
1-Fortin Hill likes Keeneland and runs well fresh. Look for the 7-year-old to sit a close up trip under Johnny Velazquez for his first start since July. 9-O Besos exits graded stakes company and can run on late if there's a speed melt down. 7-Pro Oxidant makes his first start since August and has run well fresh, with the ability to sit close and run on.


8th Race
With the expectation that More Than Looks skips this race in favor of the Breeders' Cup, the race opens the door for hard trying 4-Smokey Mandate. The gelding has run two solid races in stakes company at high odds and finally figures as one of the top contenders. The versatile Mike Maker runner can lead or stalk depending on what's needed. 1-Talk of the Nation looks for two straight stakes wins for Shug McGaughey with Jose Ortiz flying in to ride. The colt just missed in the grade 3 Manila back in July and can sit close from the inside post. 10-Appraise got the worst of things so far as the post draw is concerned, but with the way Chad Brown's horses have been performing--especially on grass--maybe it's only fair that his runners be penalized. In all seriousness, the colt is first or second in four of 10 starts and appears to have a lot of ability.


9th Race
10-Trademark has an affinity for Keeneland's track and he just missed in the grade 2 Lukas Classic behind Breeders' Cup Classic bound Clapton. The ultra consistent son of Upstart races for Vicki Oliver, whose runners have been performing terrifically all meet long. 12-Best Actor didn't have much luck with the draw, but the son of Flatter moves up off a win and has enough speed to lead but is equally effective sitting off the pace. Leave it to one of the best in the game, Flavien Prat, to figure out a trip from the tricky 12 hole for top trainer Cox.8-Law Professor has run his best races on non-fast tracks. If the skies open up, his chances definitely improve, and regardless, the earner of close to $1 million fits with these following a third in the grade 2 Woodward behind Zandon.


10th Race
8-Act of Mutiny for Shut McGaughey stretches out and is showing improvement with each start. 4-Time Song tries the turf for the first time and is bred to handle it. 5-Deadpan showed speed in his debut before tiring to third. If he gets loose on the lead he will be very tough, and regardless, he appears a top contender.

[ConleyPicks]

Tom LeachThree stakes races close out a wonderful fall meet and I think there are some good chances to hit a price or two. Good luck!

1st Race
7-Born Flawless showed big improvement last time out and the Amoss barn has had a good fall meet. 8-Dreaming of Smarty goes for a barn that has good numbers with new claims and Saez rides. 5-City of Clouds runs in claiming company for the first time.


2nd Race
8-Publius ran well in a tough debut at Kentucky Downs and the Cox barn has excellent stats with horses making their second start. Gafflione taking the mount adds to the appeal. 3-Raguel comes out of the same race and was the betting favorite so we'll give this one another chance. 7-Lat Long should benefit from that race over the track two weeks ago. 2-Disattached is a first-timer from the Pletcher barn that brought some talented two-year olds to this meet.


3rd Race
3-Dubyuhnell won a grade two stake last December and this barn can get them ready off a layoff. 4-Bromley ran well in his comeback race and if he makes a forward move, he'll be right there. 5-Denington has kept good company and should be finishing strong. 2-Promise Me a Ride romped at Ellis two starts back with a strong Beyer number.


4th Race
12-Howl makes his debut for the Cox barn and she's been working up a storm for a long time. Prat showing up to ride is a big plus. 4-Foxfire finished strong in her debut and gets Rosario to ride for the DeVeaux barn. 1-Musical Prayer ran well behind Foxfire last time out.


5th Race
9-Clever Thought has turned in a pair of strong efforts off a break and he has experience at long distances. 8-Jungfrau makes his second start for the Cox barn and should like the added distance he gets here. 5-Hilliard comes his best two races for the Maker barn and this one is actually cutting back from a mile-and-five-sixteenths.


6th Race
In the Bowman Mill Stakes, I'm betting 7-Cowes will handle the surface switch just fine and maybe win this race at a bit of a price. He's a son of Uncle Mo so the dirt should be just fine and this one was bet heavily in both starts and ran well. 3-Royal Slipper was a good-looking winner on opening day of this meet and he's definitely the one to beat. 1-Normandy Hero also won on opening weekend and posted his best Beyer figure. 2-Valentine Candy ran second to Normany Hero in that race here.


7th Race
2-Traegar won his last two in a row but he has not raced since January. Still, this barn has been on fire out west and it's noteworthy that a former leading rider in southern California, Flavien Prat, takes the mount. 8-Top Gunner didn't run much in the stake here on opening weekend but he has back class and he did have a bad start last time. 1-Fortin Hill won here in the spring at this distance. 4-Chasing Time posted a 97 Beyer three starts back and that would make him competitive in this spot.


8th Race
The grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes looks like a two-horse race to me and I am betting that 1-Talk of the Nation will turn the tables on 9-More Than Looks. The former had a breakthrough race last time at Kentucky Downs with a best Beyer of 97 and I like that Jose Ortiz comes in to keep the mount on this horse that has been highly-touted for quite awhile. More Than Looks comes off a 101 Beyer figure and has four wins from seven starts so she'll be hard to beat. If you want to go deeper, 4-Smokey Mandate has competed well against the top two but couldn't beat them.


9th Race
The final stake of the fall meet is the grade 2 Hagyard Fayette and it's a well-matched group that presents quite a handicapping challenge. 11-Dash Attack has flashed some promise in the past but in that last race, it looks like he may have had a breakout performance, hitting 101 on the Beyer scale and doing it in a visually impressive manner. The sharp work two weeks ago only serves to validate the confidence and a great "speed rider" like Johnny V taking the mount adds to the appeal. 1-Film Star has two wins and a second-place finish in his last three starts and has won here. 10-Trademark ran a winning race last time out and has steadily improved. 12-Best Actor posted a 97 Beyer last time out for the Cox barn.


10th Race
2-Sheriff Joe finally got to do what I think he wants to do--run long on the turf--and he ran third from a wide post on a day when you needed to be inside. Rosario is a great finishing rider and that will help this one. 5-Deadpan finished third in his debut, behind a horse pointing to the Breeders' Cup. 8-Act of Mutiny improved in his second start when moving to grass and the runnerup came back to win a stake. 9-Veracruzin has taken money in every start so I don't want to miss out when he finally runs to expectations and that's why I'll have this one on the late pick four ticket. 11-Vivaldi beat half the field in a tough race in the debut.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis StarrSaturday October 28, 2023
Race 6 at Keeneland
Post Time 3:40 p.m. eastern time
Bowman Mill Stakes
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#3 Royal Slipper – minimum win betting odds 3 to 2
#1 Normandy Hero – minimum win betting odds – 2 to 1
Exacta: Box 3, 1

Royal Slipper won most impressively in her career debut on October 6 (opening weekend) here at Keeneland and can earn her second win in as many starts, adding to trainer Wesley Ward’s tremendous record with two year olds over the past few years. Ward won this race two years ago with Nakatomi and wins at an extraordinarily high 30% clip overall in dirt sprints (over the past three years) as well as 27% with second time starters and 31% when using jockey Joel Rosario as is the case here. Royal Slipper is a half-sister (same Dam) to Bast, who won the 2019 Del Mar Debutante in only the second start of her career, then won three other stakes races before retiring. In her debut, Royal Slipper was away like a rocket from the rail and was never challenged as she was ridden out to an easy win. She should run even better in her second career start and is the one to catch, and to beat, in this race and as a filly against males, which is no concern as two year old females can be more mature than their male counterparts, she gets in a few pounds lighter than her opponents, which may offer an additional edge.

Normandy Hero also returns for his second start at the Keeneland fall meeting, also off a win just like Royal Slipper. He had won in August in his second career start leading from start to finish, but in that last race three weeks ago he relaxed in fourth in the early stages then took over from the rail in the stretch to draw off. He could run even better here and if Royal Slipper can’t lead from start to finish, Normandy Hero has the highest probability among the rest to get up late in the race and win.

[ConleyPicks]

Kim NelsonSaturday's card features the $200K Bowman Mill, The Grade 3 Bryan Station and The Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette.

1st Race
#4 Jewelstown is first off the claim for the Asmussen barn and barn gets 18% winners with this type. A gelding by Speightstown should appreciate the distance and looks like he has found the right spot. #7 Born Flawless is also first off the claim and he brings the early speed. He posted a big 83 Beyer Speed figure last out and is a definite contender. #8 Dreaming of Smarty is another first off the claim. He won his last by 9 lengths and comes over as the early 8-5 favorite. Top Picks #4, #7 and #8


2nd Race
#8 Publius broke late in his debut and showed a lot of courage down the lane at Kentucky Downs to land a 3rd place finish. Look for him to return here sharp and appreciate the Keeneland grass. #7 Lat Long is moving to the turf course after a couple of 3rd place finishes with similar on the dirt. His Beyers figures, although on dirt, are strong for this field. #5 J Bird Time has a strong Tomlinson number for this distance on the grass and look for him to improve in his 2nd career start. Top Picks #8, #7 and #5


3rd Race
#7 Curly Jack is first off the layoff but brings an impressive resume for this field. Barn gets 19% winners first back and like that Morales stays in the irons. #6 King Ice seldom misses a check and exits a daylight win with stakes company. He brings a late kick that could prove effective down the lane. #2 Promise Me a Ride will likely be on or near the lead here. He should stay on for part. Top Picks #7, #6 and #2


4th Race
#5 Rubia has a couple of races under her belt and looks to be an improving sort. She has enough early foot to get involved early and looks capable with these. #4 Foxfire landed a 2nd place finish in her first start and expect her to be a contender with these. #9 Crushed Ice has a race over the course this meet where she finished 3rd. She adds blinkers for this one. Top Picks #5, #4 and #9


5th Race
#9 Clever Thought is 3rd off the layoff and dropping out of Graded Stakes company. He also backs up in distance a bit and like him for the win here. #11 Truly Quality turned a strong performance last out in his first off the layoff. A bit of a rough trip breaking form the outside post he managed a 3rd place finish. He looks tough in here. #3 Spirit Maker has been working well preparing for this one and the added distance could prove to his liking. Top Picks #9, #11 and #3


6th Race
#4 Glengarry won his last in fine fashion while setting very fast fractions. A repeat effort of that one will make him tough to catch here. #5 Patriot Spirit also set fast fractions in his last but tired going the mile distance. He will surely test the pace. #1 Normandy Hero has a win over the track this meet and like that he sat off the fast pace in that one and closed for the win. The same scenario is possible here. Top Picks #4, #5 and #1


7th Race
#4 Chasing Time is a distance specialist and this level looks to suit him. #8 Top Gunner tried the Grade 2 Phoenix in his last and didn't fair well. Last years form is strong though and expect him to improve here in his 2nd off the layoff and with softer. #2 Traegar is first off the layoff but brings a solid resume having only finished out of the top 2 spots only once in 6 starts. Top Picks #4, #8 and #2


8th Race
#10 Appraise was the beaten favorite last out after being a bit rank early in the race. Expect connections to have him right for this one with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. #9 More Than Looks exits a nice stakes win posting an impressive 101 Beyer Speed figure. He comes over as the early 9-5 favorite. #5 Mo Stash has been keeping tough company in recent form and holding his own. He has some early speed and expect a big effort. Top Picks #10, #9 and #5


9th Race
#8 Law Professor is a hard knocking sort that loves this distance and is making his 2nd off the layoff. His consistency is impressive and like him to find the winners circle here. #10 Trademark just missed with Grade 2 company in his last and is another with consistent form. #3 King Fury finished 4th in this race last year . He is 2nd off the layoff and expect him to show up sharp here. Top Picks #8, #10 and #3


10th Race
#4 Time Song is making his 3rd career start and is moving to the grass. If this is taken off the grass course due to rain he looks even more a likely winner. #11 Vivaldi was far back in his debut effort and the race turned out to be quite a productive one with 2nd and 3rd place finishers both coming back to win their next start. Expect a sharper effort here. #12 Mo Caliente just missed last out at this distance and expect him to bring a big game with these. Top Picks #4, #11 and #12

[ConleyPicks]

“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Dusty Springfield
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Magic Wanderer.

Forecast: Dusty Springfield was well meant in her debut this month but wound up fifth after breaking slowly, racing wide, and then appearing a bit green while in dire need of the experience. We’re expecting a much more professional performance today from the daughter of Grazen, so with top jockey Juan Hernandez riding her back the Phil D’Amato-trained California-bred sophomore should step forward considerably. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and is a gamble at or near that price.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Thompson
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Thompson shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern plus the always popular blinkers off angle, so the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding looks very likely to produce a significant forward move in this maiden claiming main track miler for juveniles. The barn has powerful stats with stretch out runners, and with the break in the weights that bug boy Torrealba provides, the son of First Samurai looks solid at 9/5. He’s a win play at or near that price and a rolling exotic single.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Make It Snow
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Make It Snow actually ran quite well when fourth in the productive Unzip Me Stakes sprinting down the hill earlier this month and today returns to the maiden ranks seeking her diploma. The pedigree suggests she can easily handle the stretch out in trip so there should be no excuses for the daughter of Empire Maker. She’s listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, and we’d take that price in a heartbeat if we could get it at post time.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ice Dancing
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ice Dancing is a first time Lasix user in this second level allowance extended main track dash for fillies and mares in her first outing since winning the Santa Ynez Stakes last January. Successful both sprinting and over a distance of ground, the versatile daughter of Frosted returns with a series of workouts for trainer Richard Mandella that should have her plenty fit and ready. The rail post is of some concern, but in a field without much zip she should have no difficulty as the pace setter or presser, assuming she leaves with her field. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and is likely to go lower as a logical win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Avoir; 7-Blue Oasis.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Avoir has been given a strong foundation of three sprint preps prior to this stretch out around two turns and with a pedigree that suggests she’ll improving over a distance of ground the daughter of More Than Ready seems well spotted to graduate. All three of her outings to date have produced speed figures that are par for this level, so we’ll go with the Peter Miller-trained juvenile filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 2-1. Also worth tossing in is Blue Oasis, a promising daughter of War Front who lost her best chance at the start when stumbling badly in a similar race over this course and distance three weeks ago, yet she still managed to wind up fifth, beaten less than two lengths.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Tiz Tok
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Take Charge Curly; 7-All the King’s Men.

Forecast: Tiz Tok doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler for older horses and should return to his best form after being pitched too high three weeks ago in a hot sprint won by the extremely talented Ghost of Midnight. There isn’t anything remotely as fast as that unbeaten gelding to worry about today, so we anticipate the son of Tiznow will be able to duplicate his sharp runner-up effort at this level at Los Alamitos two races back. We wouldn’t take much less than his morning line of 5/2 but at that price he’ll offer a reasonable amount of value.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Grace Period
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Gimme Mo Baby; 7-Yerwanthere.

Forecast: Grace Period is a fairly decent French invader making her U.S. debut as a first time Lasix user in this first level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Stakes placed as a 2-year-old when second to subsequent QE2 Challenge Cup runner-up Lindy, she was in extremely tough in a pair of black type events overseas this year before importation, and under good trainer Leonard Powell’s tutelage the daughter of Creative Cause should go much, much better on this circuit. She attracts Frankie, shows a brief series of sharp recent local drills to have her cranked and ready, and should be capable of outclassing this field for a barn that has enjoyed excellent success with shippers from overseas. We’ll make a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Midnight Love; 3-Eligiio; 8-Tapalo.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Schwarzmeier.

Forecast: Midnight Love showed some ability in a pair abbreviated juvenile sprint races last May when hitting the board despite breaking slowly on both occasions. He returns off a five month vacation with a reasonable series of workouts, and if the son of Midnight Love can step forward even just a little bit this time around (and, hopefully, break with his field), he’ll have a good chance to graduate in this moderate state-bred affair. His morning line of 5-1 seems reasonable. Eligio is back with maidens today after running well in a starter optional claimer at Del Mar in late August. The son of Congrats has three seconds from three starts on his resume and should find a field he can beat soon enough. Tapalo is comfortably drawn outside and has plenty of room to improve after flashing good speed before weakening late in his debut over seven furlongs at Los Alamitos last month. Toss him in somewhere.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Bally’s Charm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Hit the Road.

Forecast: Bally’s Charm ran lesser foes into the ground in a recent fast, highly rated allowance score over this course and distance and similar front runner tactics surely will be employed in this year’s edition of the Lure Stakes. A four time winner over the local lawn and a stakes winner in state-bred company, the son of Roi Charmant tackles open foes today but has speed figures that are good enough for a repeat score despite the obvious raise in class. Two nice recent breezes should tick him over for another major effort, so let’s put him on top in the win pool and play him with confidence in the various rolling exotics.

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[ConleyPicks]

Peter Lurie SANTA ANITA

R1. 8-5-7-6R2. 5-2-1-3
R3. 4-1-6-2
R4. 1-4-6-3
R5. 8-3-7-1
R6. 7-8-9-3
R7. 7–4-3-5
R8. 7-4-2-5
R9. 5-3-7-2

[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES
Saturday October 28, 2023
Andy Serling

Race 1 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2 2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 3 9 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 4 2B - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 5 6 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 6 7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 7 5 - 3 - 10 - 4
Race 8 5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 9 1 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 10 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 11 7 - 4 - 1 - 8

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 28
by David Aragona
BAQ


PICKS

Race 1: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 9 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 2B - 7 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 10 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 9: 8 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 10: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 11: 4 - 1 - 10 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 1

Perhaps this race is as simple as defaulting to Beary Funny (#1) in his second start, but I’m not thrilled with this horse at a very short price. He ran well on debut in somewhat of a surprise, going off at 25-1. That appeared to be a very strong race for the level, but it’s unclear if it really was, considering that the winner came back to run so poorly in his next start. If I’m going to take a horse out of that race, I would rather it be Flying in Style (#2) at a better price. This horse earned a pair of TimeformUS Speed Figures, 90 and 92, in his first couple of starts, that are faster than Beary Funny’s debut. He obviously ran poorly in that Aug. 27 race, but he got upset in the stalls and lunged into the front of the gate before getting yanked back by the assistant starter. Sometimes that kind of incident can really rattle a horse, and he wasn’t himself during the race. It also took him more than a month to get back to the worktab, so something clearly went wrong. Now he’s back showing a steady series of drills, and he looks like the speed in a race that didn’t come up very strong for the level.

Fair Value:
#2 FLYING IN STYLE, at 5-2 or greater


RACE 6

A few of these exit the 8th race at this level on Sep. 3 at Saratoga. Dontmesswithtess (#7) figures to take money despite finishing off the board that day. She did have a valid excuse last time, as she was unfocused for the start and spotted the field several lengths. She actually made a strong move into contention on the far turn, but flattened out late. The problem is that she always seems to get overbet whenever Irad Ortiz is aboard, so I’m not confident that her poor result last time, excuse or not, is going to scare anyone away. She also has shown a tendency to flatten out late in her races, and her lac of early speed is a concern in this spot. Miss Kristy (#8) also ran well in that Sep. 3 affair coming from off the pace, and she might have more upside as a 3-year-old. She’s been improving with each turf start, and reliably tries hard down the stretch in each of her races. I do wonder if the race will set up for her without a ton of speed signed on, but she figures to give an honest account of herself. My top pick is Diamond Status (#2), who finished ahead of both of those runners on Sep. 3. Some might be turned off by her 1-for-15 lifetime record, but she’s really figured things out lately, finishing in the exacta in each of her last three starts. She ran deceptively well to break her maiden when stalking a fast pace that was falling apart behind her. Then last time she attended another honest pace in a race that was dominated by closers. She looked ripe to get swallowed up at the top of the stretch, but continued to battle on gamely all the way to the wire going a distance that may be stretching her. I love this cutback to a mile, and she figures to get a perfect trip sitting just in behind likely speed Miss San Gabriel.

Fair Value:
#2 DIAMOND STATUS, at 4-1 or greater


RACE 7

Redistricting (#5) might just be too talented for this field as he gets back to the races after disappointing in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby when last seen. While he took plenty of money to be 5-1, that was always an ambitious spot for a horse making just the second start of his career. He drew a poor post and never had particularly good position during the race, wide for much of the way. I would excuse the effort, and he did run exceptionally well on debut. The turn of foot that he produced in that first start was impressive, and he beat a solid field by nearly 5 lengths. A repeat of that performance makes him very tough here. However, he’s going to be a short price off the layoff for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz and I think there are a couple of alternatives with significant upside. One of those is Shadowed (#4), who makes his first North American start after racing in Ireland. He encountered a very good horse in the second start of his career, finishing second to future Epsom Derby winner Auguste Rodin. However, he never really built on that 2-year-old form, beating weaker to break his maiden this year before losing as the heavy favorite in a lower level race. Perhaps he will step forward for the new barn, but he really needs to do so. I prefer Capture the Flag (#10), who deserves another chance on the turf. This horse was visually impressive breaking his maiden on dirt as a 2-year-old, but has always been more turf meant given his pedigree, being out of a dam who won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. He finally got on grass last time and I didn’t think he got the opportunity to put forth his best effort. He was taken back early, ridden very conservatively through the early portion of the race. He seemingly had plenty of run coming around the far turn, but stayed inside and had to work his way through traffic before running on belatedly. I expect he will have more to offer now that he has that experience under his belt. There’s still a chance he turns out to be pretty good on this surface.

Fair Value:
#10 CAPTURE THE FLAG, at 9-2 or greater


RACE 10

Accretive (#3) could go favored here after finishing second to Cody’s Wish in the Vosburgh four weeks ago. While he deserves some credit for holding his own against that foe, he did get a much better trip overall, setting a moderate pace in a race where the favorite had to overcome a poor start. He’s proven that he handles a mile and he’s shown the class to win at this level. I just wonder if he’s going to be a short price for popular connections, and he probably does need to produce a better effort than we’ve seen thus far in his 4-year-old campaign to beat this field. The other horse who figures to vie for favoritism is Everso Mischievous (#2). He’s shown ability from the start, and he seems to have gained some focus since adding blinkers two starts back. He might be heading in the right direction, but he's been an extremely short price in all of his races, and figures to take money again here despite the class hike. He’s also drawn inside of some formidable pace rivals, so he could be under the gun from this inside draw. I much prefer the draw of Film Star (#4), who has a similar running style. This horse has been quite the successful claim for Linda Rice. He’s been in fantastic form, improving all the time, as he really seems to be thriving on the busy schedule. While he did get some favorable pace setups when he won two and three back, he overcome a tougher pace scenario in the Woodward last time. He was attending some honest fractions, took over in upper stretch and just couldn’t hold off the classy Zandon. That 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the top number in this race. The big question for him is the turnback to a one-turn mile, but he had run well in one-turn races earlier this year. He also drew well outside of his two main rivals, giving Jose Lezcano options. If things fall apart, Dr Ardito (#5) should come running late. I’m willing to forgive his last effort, since he didn’t seem to handle the slop at Parx. He had been consistent prior to that, but I just feel like we’ve already seen the best he has to offer and others have a higher ceiling.

Fair Value:
#4 FILM STAR, at 3-1 or greater


RACE 11

Material Witness (#2) could go favored again after running a decent second at this level last month. She validated her performance at Kentucky Downs, where she really seemed to appreciate the switch to turf. She was just no match for the winner, Queen of the Mud, last time. While she was flattered by that foe returning to win at Keeneland, it appears that there wasn’t much behind her in that Aqueduct maiden win. In general, I wanted to avoid horses coming out of that race. Though I would use Catskill Humor (#10) if she’s a generous price. She didn’t break that sharply and was wide every step of the way, running better than her 5th-place result indicates. I’m just more interested in a pair of turnbacks. Riviere (#1) makes plenty of sense after running so well in her career debut going this distance. She didn’t break well that day, but rushed up while racing wide before proceeding in the 4-path into the far turn. She actually made a move into contention in upper stretch before flattening out. Since then she didn’t get the right trip at Kentucky Downs and then stretched out last time. She ran fine going a mile without much excuse, but she might just be getting back to the right distance here. My top pick is Le Beau (#4), who exits that same Oct. 12 race. She’s never sprinted before, but she strikes me as one that shouldn’t mind the turnback in distance. Mendelssohn is a versatile sire who gets 13% turf sprint winners, and this filly has the tactical speed to work out the right kind of trip here. She actually ran deceptively well off the layoff at Kentucky Downs, rushing up to contest the pace after breaking a couple of lengths slowly. She ran better than Riviere last time, going 3-wide on the far turn to make her move before flattening out. Christophe Clement is one of the few trainers who excels with this turnback on turf. He is 23 for 87 (26%, $1.94 ROI) with 3YO+ runners going from routes to sprints on turf at Belmont and Aqueduct over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#4 LE BEAU, at 7-2 or greater
#1 RIVIERE, at 5-1 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 28
Oct. 27, 2023










Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 59% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:05 PM ET



BEST BET: #3 REFUAH









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
3
Refuah
T McCarthy


PLACE
7-5
1
Beary Funny
M Franco


SHOW
9-2
6
Vaunted
K Carmouche


WILD CARD
8-1
4
Escape Key
D Davis





ALTERNATE 1
3-1
2
Flying in Style
L R Rivera Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
5
Prince of Truth
J Lezcano








* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX









RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET



BEST BET: #5 THE REVENGER









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
5
The Revenger
K Carmouche


PLACE
9-5
3
Hammerin Aamer
L J Luzzi


SHOW
4-1
6
Pit Boss
T McCarthy


WILD CARD
20-1
1
Jumpster
R R Maragh





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
4
My Friends Beer
R Silvera


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
2
Continental Divide
I Castillo








* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX









RACE #3 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 3/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
7
War Officer
I Ortiz Jr.


PLACE
7-2
9
Sacred Rhyme
J Lezcano


SHOW
4-1
5
Torigo
K Carmouche


WILD CARD
6-1
3
The Jackal
M Franco





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
11
Nostalgic One
I Ortiz Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
6
Elevated Causeway
K Davis








* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX









RACE #4 $40,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
1-1
2B
Colonel Bowman
K Carmouche


PLACE
7-2
6
Sagamore Mischief
I Ortiz Jr.


SHOW
12-1
4
Flint Ridge
L R Rivera Jr.


WILD CARD
7-2
7
Magnolia Midnight
M Franco





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
5
Scilly Cay
J A Gomez


ALTERNATE 2
1-1
2
Tetsu
I Castillo








* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX









RACE #5 $102,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET



BEST BET: #8 RACHELS ROCK









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
8
Rachels Rock
J Rendon


PLACE
8-1
5
Lady Milagro
L R Rivera Jr.


SHOW
5-1
7
Quick Munny
K Carmouche


WILD CARD
5-2
6
You Look Cold
J Alvarado





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
4
More Than Vows
I Ortiz Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
3-1
1
Taming the Tigress
I Castillo








* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX









RACE #6 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
10
Tap It Up
M Franco


PLACE
9-2
6
Elle Est Forte
D Davis


SHOW
6-1
2
Diamond Status
K Carmouche


WILD CARD
4-1
3
Miss San Gabriel
J Castellano





ALTERNATE 1
3-1
7
Dontmesswithtess
I Ortiz Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
11
Smokin Hot Kitty
M Franco








* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX









RACE #7 $100,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-1
9
Quality G
M Franco


PLACE
9-5
13
Mistical Curlin
J Alvarado


SHOW
6-5
5
Redistricting
I Ortiz Jr.


WILD CARD
4-1
3
Ramblin Wreck
J Lezcano





ALTERNATE 1
5-2
12
Daddy Knows
K Davis


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
10
Capture the Flag
J Alvarado








* EXACTA: 9-13 BOX, 13-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/9/13 BOX, 3/5/13 BOX









RACE #8 $250,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:48 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
5
Occult
I Ortiz Jr.


PLACE
8-1
4
Undervalued Asset
M Franco


SHOW
6-5
6
Xigera
J R Leparoux


WILD CARD
15-1
1
Foggy Night
J Lezcano





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
7
Defining Purpose
J Alvarado


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
3
Julia Shining
J Castellano








* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX









RACE #9 $135,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
8-5
8
Spirit Prince
D Davis


PLACE
7-2
5
Twirling Point
J Castellano


SHOW
15-1
4
Blue Creek
F Boyce


WILD CARD
9-2
3
Move to Gold
M Franco





ALTERNATE 1
9-2
1
Innate
K Carmouche


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
6
Dancing Mischief
I Ortiz Jr.








* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX









RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:53 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
3
Accretive
I Ortiz Jr.


PLACE
5-2
2
Everso Mischievous
C A Torres


SHOW
3-1
4
Film Star
J Lezcano


WILD CARD
10-1
6
Swiftsure
K Carmouche





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
5
Dr Ardito
M Franco


ALTERNATE 2
15-1
7
Business Model
D Davis








* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX









RACE #11 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:23 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-1
4
Le Beau
J Castellano


PLACE
7-2
2
Material Witness
M Franco


SHOW
5-1
1
Riviere
J Alvarado


WILD CARD
8-1
5
Wish List
T McCarthy





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
11
Words of Praise
K Carmouche


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
6
Iguazu
J A Gomez








* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 28
Oct. 27, 2023










Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $30,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET



BEST BET: #8 DREAMING OF SMARTY









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
8
Dreaming of Smarty
L Saez


PLACE
5-2
7
Born Flawless
E Morales


SHOW
7-2
5
City of Clouds
G Corrales


WILD CARD
6-1
3
Line to Gain
A Calleja





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
2
Bruce Banner
J L Castanon


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
4
Jewelstown
K J Asmussen








* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX









RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
7
Lat Long
B J Hernandez Jr.


PLACE
8-1
16
Chaperone
R Santana Jr.


SHOW
10-1
13
Creek
F Prat


WILD CARD
4-1
8
Publius
T Gaffalione





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
2
Disattached
L Saez


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
6
Transcendental
J L Ortiz








* EXACTA: 7-16 BOX, 16-13 BOX, 13-8 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 7/13/16 BOX, 8/13/16 BOX









RACE #3 $120,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
7
Curly Jack
E Morales


PLACE
3-1
5
Denington
C J Lanerie


SHOW
8-1
4
Bromley
J R Velazquez


WILD CARD
4-1
6
King Ice
J Talamo





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
2
Promise Me a Ride
R Santana Jr.


ALTERNATE 2
5-2
3
Dubyuhnell
T Gaffalione








* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX









RACE #4 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET



BEST BET: #10 INSENSITIVE









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-2
10
Insensitive
F Arrieta


PLACE
8-1
9
Crushed Ice
L Saez


SHOW
7-2
4
Foxfire
J Rosario


WILD CARD
10-1
11
Kids Last Laugh
B J Hernandez Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
6
Nikki M P
T Gaffalione


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Musical Prayer
J L Ortiz








* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 4/9/10 BOX, 4/9/11 BOX









RACE #5 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
1 3/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET



BEST BET: #9 CLEVER THOUGHT









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
9
Clever Thought
L Saez


PLACE
9-2
11
Truly Quality
J L Ortiz


SHOW
7-2
15
Baba Voss
T Gaffalione


WILD CARD
6-1
3
Spirit Maker
F Geroux





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
7
Our Dream Ryed
A Beschizza


ALTERNATE 2
7-2
5
Hilliard
J Rosario








* EXACTA: 9-11 BOX, 11-15 BOX, 15-3 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 9/11/15 BOX, 3/11/15 BOX









RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-1
3
Royal Slipper
J Rosario


PLACE
5-2
1
Normandy Hero
A Achard


SHOW
3-1
2
Valentine Candy
R Santana Jr.


WILD CARD
6-1
4
Glengarry
L Saez





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
8
Maycocks Bay
J R Velazquez


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
5
Patriot Spirit
F Prat








* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX









RACE #7 $140,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
1
Fortin Hill
J R Velazquez


PLACE
8-1
7
Pro Oxidant
L Saez


SHOW
3-1
2
Traegar
F Prat


WILD CARD
9-2
6
Doctor Oscar
A Quinonez





ALTERNATE 1
10-1
9
O Besos
T Gaffalione


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
8
Top Gunner
R Santana Jr.








* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX









RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
9
More Than Looks
J R Velazquez


PLACE
5-2
1
Talk of the Nation
J L Ortiz


SHOW
15-1
3
Dude N Colorado
F Prat


WILD CARD
12-1
5
Mo Stash
L Saez





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
2
Gigante
J Rosario


ALTERNATE 2
20-1
7
Worthington
R Gutierrez








* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX









RACE #9 $350,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
6-1
1
Film Star
J L Ortiz


PLACE
8-1
4
Giant Game
J Rosario


SHOW
9-2
10
Trademark
M Garcia


WILD CARD
20-1
6
Speed Bias
R Santana Jr.





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
8
Law Professor
F Geroux


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
9
OConnor
T Gaffalione








* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/4/10 BOX, 4/6/10 BOX









RACE #10 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
16
Real Men Violin
B J Hernandez Jr.


PLACE
6-1
12
Mo Caliente
J L Ortiz


SHOW
3-1
8
Act of Mutiny
F Prat


WILD CARD
9-2
5
Deadpan
F Geroux





ALTERNATE 1
20-1
3
Wauhatchie
E Morales


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
15
Phreddie Mac
J Rosario








* EXACTA: 16-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 8/12/16 BOX, 5/8/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 28
Oct. 27, 2023










Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
4-1
5
Satoshi
K Frey


PLACE
5-2
8
Dusty Springfield
J J Hernandez


SHOW
5-1
7
Grazen Touch
T J Pereira


WILD CARD
8-1
6
Magic Wanderer
J Torrealba





ALTERNATE 1
5-1
9
Stylish Dress
J Bravo


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
3
Blondzilla
R A Vazquez








* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX









RACE #2 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
2
Screaming Virginia
J D Lopez


PLACE
9-5
5
Thompson
J Torrealba


SHOW
5-1
4
Uncle Juju
A Alsagoor


WILD CARD
12-1
6
Ringtone
A Ayuso





ALTERNATE 1
3-1
1
Veritas Aequitas
K Frey


ALTERNATE 2
5-1
3
Details Matter
J Valdivia Jr.








* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX









RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:03 PM ET



BEST BET: #4 MAKE IT SNOW









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
4
Make It Snow
V Espinoza


PLACE
5-2
1
Happy Happy
A Fresu


SHOW
2-1
6
Miss Monarch Bay
U Rispoli


WILD CARD
8-1
2
Thirty Carats
R A Vazquez





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
5
Beautiful Bolt
K Frey


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
3
Machiavellique
L Dettori








* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX









RACE #4 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET



BEST BET: #1 ICE DANCING









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
9-5
1
Ice Dancing
M E Smith


PLACE
4-1
3
Violent Runner
M Gutierrez


SHOW
2-1
6
Doinitthehardway
J J Hernandez


WILD CARD
7-2
4
Smoothlikebuttah
T J Pereira





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Angel Nadeshiko
U Rispoli


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
5
Outside the Law
T Baze








* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX









RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET



BEST BET: #3 AVOIR









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
2-1
3
Avoir
J J Hernandez


PLACE
3-1
8
Circle of Trust
L Dettori


SHOW
3-1
7
Blue Oasis
R A Vazquez


WILD CARD
15-1
5
Visually
K Frey





ALTERNATE 1
8-1
2
Motet
A Cedillo


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
1
Glo Glo
A Fresu








* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX









RACE #6 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:39 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-2
8
Tiz Tok
T Baze


PLACE
3-1
7
All the Kings Men
J Torrealba


SHOW
4-1
3
Take Charge Curly
K Frey


WILD CARD
3-1
9
Canelo
R Gonzalez





ALTERNATE 1
15-1
2
Road of Love
C Ortega


ALTERNATE 2
12-1
6
Cathedral Light
A Aguilar








* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX









RACE #7 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:11 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
7-2
3
Rose Barton
K J Desormeaux


PLACE
5-1
1
Gimme Mo Baby
U Rispoli


SHOW
5-1
5
Myfavoritedaughter
R A Vazquez


WILD CARD
3-1
4
Grace Period
L Dettori





ALTERNATE 1
12-1
2
Luminiferous
A Cedillo


ALTERNATE 2
6-1
6
With Love
R Gonzalez








* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX









RACE #8 $40,000 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:41 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
2
Midnight Love
T J Pereira


PLACE
5-2
4
Eligio
R Gonzalez


SHOW
3-1
8
Tapalo
H I Berrios


WILD CARD
6-1
5
Sharpazano
U Rispoli





ALTERNATE 1
6-1
7
Schwarzmeier
T Baze


ALTERNATE 2
10-1
1
Gavea
R A Vazquez








* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX









RACE #9 $80,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:11 PM ET









PICK ORDER
M/L
P#
HORSE NAME
JOCKEY









WIN
5-1
8
Ballys Charm
H I Berrios


PLACE
8-1
1
Hit the Road
J Bravo


SHOW
5-2
3
Astronomer
A Fresu


WILD CARD
8-1
7
War At Sea
M E Smith





ALTERNATE 1
4-1
4
Visitant
J J Hernandez


ALTERNATE 2
8-1
9
Cabo Spirit
V Espinoza








* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX


* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN’S RACING TIPSHEET
SATURDAY, OCT. 28 POST TIME: 6:00PM
BREEDERS CROWN HARRAH'S HOOSIER

RACE SELECTIONS
RACE 1: 7-6-4-5
RACE 2: 10-3-11-4
RACE 3: 5-4-2-11
RACE 4: 10-4-2-7
RACE 5: 1-7-5-10
RACE 6: 7-1-3-5
RACE 7: 7-10-8-2
RACE 8: 1-3-4-6
RACE 9: 2-1-10-3
RACE 10: 5-7-6-4
RACE 11: 5-10-3-1
RACE 12: 8-1-5-9
RACE 13: 4-5-9-2
RACE 14: 5-9-3-2
RACE 15: 4-3-2-10-7

CHAMBERLAIN’S CHOICE:
RACE 5 #1:WHYNOTNOW(9-5)

PRICE PLAY OF THE NIGHT:
RACE 15 #4: PONDA WARRIOR (12-1)

EARLY PICK 5 TICKET (RACES 1-5)
RACE 1: 6,7
RACE 2: 3,4,10,11
RACE 3: 4,5
RACE 4: 2,4,7,10
RACE 5: 1
$32

PICK 4 TICKET (RACES 12-15)
$40,000 GUARANTEED POOL
RACE 12: 1,5,8
RACE 13: 4
RACE 14: 2,3,5,9
RACE 15: 2,3,4,10
$24

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKSKeeneland - Race #8


PICKS
NOTES


#1 Talk of the Nation
His baseline efforts make him competitive here, and I love that he just never runs a bad one. Tactical speed should find a perfect trip from the fence.


#9 More Than Looks
He's an honest finisher who landed a stakes score in his local debut last time out, and his only loss in recent runs came to a decent one in Grade II company. Guessing he'll show up late again.


#4 Smokey Mandate
He landed a couple underneath stakes shares in recent starts and has some versatility as far as where he can be placed early on, but he'll need to turn the tables on More Than Looks from that last one.


Race Summary
Talk of the Nation can sit close in here, and I can see him finding a great spot in the pocket early on. Think the jury is still at least just a little bit out on him as far as overall class goes, but he's definitely in the mix in a Grade III kind of spot.


Keeneland - Race #9


PICKS
NOTES


#8 Law Professor
He'll go second off the break today after just going flat late in the first start off a five-month break last out, and a little reasonable move forward off that start would keep him in the picture with these.


#1 Film Star
He was closest to Zandon in that common Woodward a few of them exit, but I could see him getting a slightly tricky trip from the inside with a couple other runners who want to be in the front half early.


#2 Happy American
He shows up with some pretty solid late runs from time to time, and he would benefit if all the potential forward players flashed their pace early in here. Think he makes some sense in the underneath spots.


Race Summary
Law Professor looks likely to get a really good tracking trip today, and he might be able to sustain a bid from close range a bit better today with that last one under his belt.


Keeneland - Race #10


PICKS
NOTES


#1 Trikari
Debuter goes for a team that can win with younger horses, and I'm not sure he's meeting the toughest special weight field we're going to see for the 2-year-olds. Get a look at him, but I wouldn't be shocked if he were ready to roll.


#3 Wauhatchie
He ran on well on the main track in the career debut when outperforming the 42/1 price, and he probably has a claim on a slice of this if he can transfer that over to the turf today. Interesting at a midrange price.


#8 Act of Mutiny
He moved up on the turf when finishing with some enthusiasm at Kentucky Downs in September, and a bit more leisurely route tempo might work in his favor to allow him to avoid winding up with so much to do late.


Race Summary
Trikari brings a steady series of drills to this one while finding a group with a decent number of questions to answer, and a few other big name barns might command enough attention to leave the price more interesting.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKSGulfstream Park - Race #1


PICKS
NOTES


#10 RED HOT SPARK (4-1)
Better than debut appears, expect a big effort if she breaks alertly.


#3 EMILY’S WISH (3-1)
Joseph firster worked fast early, breezed several times from gate recently.


#9 PARTY SHAKER (7-2)
Launched career in MSW route race, takes class drop and tries sprint.


Race Summary
RED HOT SPARK earned the top speed figure in the field despite hesitating at the start, racing a bit greenly and lugging in. But she drew a lot of betting support, finished very willingly and moves from the rail to a more favorable outside post. Bet to win and place.


Gulfstream Park - Race #2


PICKS
NOTES


#6 SOLAIR (7-2)
Model of consistency in short sprints, projects good stalking trip.


#5 TALK MUCH (9-2)
Speed will be tested in bid for three consecutive wins.


#7 RUNAWAY BREEZE (4-1)
Handled cutback in distance, caught by wide closer, enters new barn.


Race Summary
SOLAIR is always in the winning hunt in sprints on the Tapeta surface. She has yet to break through against open company but could do so today with an ideal trip in the offing. Bet to win and place.


Gulfstream Park - Race #4


PICKS
NOTES


#2 BRITISH EMPRESS (5-1)
Eventful, well-bet debut, offers value in solid field.


#1 SUPER SPIN (3-1)
Led most of way in debut, stretch drift to 5-path proved costly.


#7 ATALANTA ALEXANDRA (7-5)
Second best in 3 of 5 starts at 6F, the latest in MSW company.


Race Summary
BRITISH EMPRESS took serious money but broke outward, chased while very wide and didn’t change leads in the stretch. She goes an extra half-furlong and gets Lasix again in her second go-round. Bet to win and place.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: New Orleans -4 over New York

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4UEarly Saturday Free Selection: Tulsa Golden Hurricane/SMU Mustangs under 56 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 SportsEarly Saturday's Free Play: California Golden Bears + 10

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye SportsEarly Saturday's Free Pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers - 17

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Early Saturday: Miami-Ohio Redhawks + 7 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
Houston Cougars

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tim DonaghyTim Donaghy Free Play for Saturday:
Philadelphia 76ers

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, October 28, 2023
CFB
10/28 02:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET
CF (163) WYOMING VS (164) BOISE STATE
Take: OVER
Reason: Two teams with postseason aspirations meet today in this Mountain West clash between Wyoming and Boise State. Wyoming can take a big step to a Bowl game with a win today that would improve them to 6-2 on the season. As for Boise, a win and they even their season at 4-4, a loss and they could be behind the eight ball for the postseason. Wyoming is 4-2-1 vs the spread after last week's loss at Air Force, 27-34, though they covered the 12.5 point dog line. That snapped a three game win streak for the Cowboys. Wyoming averages 26.3 ppg while allowing 25.6 ppg. They also allow more yards then they gain with a 324.7-380.7 mark. Boise State looks to rebound after their loss at Colorado State two weeks ago, 30-31, as a 8.5-point chalk. The Broncos had last week off to stew over that loss, their second in their last three games. The Broncos average 29.7 ppg but allow 30.9 ppg on the season. They also allow 428.3 ypg while averaging slightly less at 425 ypg. Your free play is on the OVER.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the Philadelphia 76ers -3 over Toronto

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday :Take EASTERN MICHIGAN +3 over Western Michigan

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play
Oregon State/Arizona over 56

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Kenny TowersYour Free Pick for Saturday - Texas A&M -17


Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 14-12

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood

MLB Take NBA Minnesota -4.5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: TEXAS -18 over BYU

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic SportsEarly Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Eastern Michigan Eagles + 2 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Golden Dragon
Saturday Free Play
Ohio State -14' CFB

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 1288-860 run SAT:
Over TOTAL 47 East Carolina/TEX

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: KANSAS ST -17.5 over Houston

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony Free Selection for SATURDAY: Take SMU/TULSA OVER

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SATURDAY!
MLB Arizona/Texas OVER the total of 8.5 runs!

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Soccer Prediction From Doc's Sports: Take Burnley (+0.5, -145) over Bournemouth (10 a.m., Saturday, Oct. 28) Burnley must earn at least a draw for us to cash this ticket. These are two of the worst sides in EPL this season, but in our opinion Burnley is the better squad. They have had some tough matchups lately, but this is a match they are definitely chasing points in as they will be desperate to stay out of the relegation zone. We expect them to earn points here, and even a draw will be enough to cash this ticket. They have won six of eight lifetime meetings, including four straight. They have picked up the full three points in their last three visits to Vitality Stadium, and this series has been one-sided domination. We think there is a very good chance for the outright win here, but a draw will be good enough for us.

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Degerfors IF+105 (Soccer)

[ConleyPicks]

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on West Virginia+7.5

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Maryland has had two full weeks to stew over a two-game losing streak. I look for the Terrapins to come out and blast the Wildcats on Saturday. Northwestern hung tough on the road against Nebraska last Saturday, ultimately losing by eight points but securing a never-in-doubt ATS cover. Note that the Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS victory, outscored by an average margin of 25.8 points in that situation. We've already seen Northwestern lose by margin here at home this season, dropping a 41-13 decision against Penn State on September 30th. Meanwhile, the Terps have proven they can win by margin on the road, crushing Michigan State 31-9 on September 23rd. Last year's game between these two teams was close with the Terps winning by seven at home. I don't believe this rematch will be as Maryland 'gets right' and ends its losing skid in convincing fashion. Take Maryland-14 -105

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-28-23

Maryland @ Northwestern (12:00 PM EST)
Play On: Maryland -14

The Maryland Terrapins travel to Northwestern to take on the Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Maryland is 5-2 overall this year while Northwestern comes in with a 3-4 overall record on the season. Northwestern averages only 99.9 rushing yards per game and 299.3 total yards per game this year. Maryland averages 281.4 passing yards per game this season. Maryland is scoring 33.4 points per game overall this year. Northwestern is scoring only 15 points per game their past 3 games overall and 16.5 points per game against conference opponents this season. We'll recommend a small play on Maryland on Saturday afternoon! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[ConleyPicks]

Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On South Carolina vs Texas A&M under 52

[ConleyPicks]

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Central Florida-6.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Texas A&M -16.5 -105

[ConleyPicks]

Will Rogers

Free Play: Newcastle United -125

Even with some injury issues, Newcastle is better than you might think. Sixth spot in the Prem. League, 24 goals for and only 9 against. That's tied for 6th in the standings but the +15 goal differential is the best in the entire league. With 11 goals scored and 15 conceded, Wolverhampton isn't nearly as strong. Go with United.

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on North Texas+7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Play: Florida+14.5 -115

Maybe Wisconsin knew what it was doing all along. The Badgers were thrilled to land prize quarterback recruit Graham Mertz. However, Mertz was a major disappointment at Wisconsin. He's lived up to his high ceiling after transferring to Florida.

Mertz has a 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his 76.2 completion percentage is the third-highest in the nation. The combination of Mertz and Florida's defense make the Gators a worthy underdog.

Georgia is the No. 1 ranked team in the country at 7-0. It's also made the Bulldogs overpriced in nearly all of their games. Georgia has failed to cover in six of its seven games. The only cover the Bulldogs have was beating Ball State by 42 points as a 41 1/2-point favorite back in Week 2.

Carson Beck is a good, but not a great quarterback. He's going against a Florida defense that gives up just 20 points a game and ranks 17th in total yards. Beck will be minus his top receiver and best playmaker, injured star tight end Brock Bowers.

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE PLAY: Virginia+19

Game 131.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

As of posting this, Free Play, my friends, reports are that Miami quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke is expected to play (check status). Last week in his absence, backup QB, Emory Williams played very well in the teams, 28-20 outright win, has a 6.5-point ‘dog over rival Clemson, 28-20. Yes, the Hurricanes are a better team on paper. But can you really see this team being nearly a three-touchdown favorite? I don't. They've played solid football, no question about that. But I expect them to be in a big “letdown” mode here for sure. They don't have the easiest schedule upcoming either, as next week they have the Wolfpack on the road, followed by the Seminoles also on the road. I think this is an ideal opportunity to get them in a letdown situation, and possibly even a “look ahead” spot. The Cavaliers, have covered the last three meetings in this series. And looking closely, the last five meetings have been separated by 3, 8, 5, 2, and 2 points. These two teams play each other very tightly. Coming into this contest, Virginia has won their last two outings straight up, and has covered four consecutive games. This does include both away games. At 2-5 overall, the best the Cavaliers can hope for is a Bowl bid. Granted, Virginia doesn't possess the most impressive numbers on either side of the ball. But they can certainly keep this game a lot closer than the 19-point spread (as of post). Take the Cavaliers. Thank you.

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on California +10.5

The Key: The USC Trojans have been the most overrated team in the country in their last 5 games. The are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 89.5 points in those 5 ATS losses. Off 2 straight losses to Notre Dame and Utah, and with 3 huge games on deck against Washington, Oregon and UCLA, this is a clear sandwich spot for USC. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team quit on their season, starting with an upset loss at California this week. I like the situation for Cal coming off a bye. They gave Oregon State all they wanted in their last home game and scored 40 points, but it wasn't enough in a 52-40 defeat. They will be able to score at will on this soft USC defense that yields 20.5 PPG this year, including 39.0 PPG in road games. Cal only lost 35-41 at USC as 21.5-point favorites last year. Given that the Bears are off a bye and the tired Trojans are playing for a 6th consecutive week, the price is too good to pass up on the double-digit home dog here. Take California.

[ConleyPicks]

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on CAL+10.5

This is the dream crusher spot for UCLA, after losing to Utah last week they will not win the Pac12 and they aren't going to the playoffs. Caleb Williams is no longer in the running for the Heisman. Now they are a double digit favorite on the road against an inferior opponent, but this might be a tough game to get up for. USC has allowed an average of 191 rushing yards per game in their last three, and they could struggle to contain Jaydn Ott. Cal is coming off a bye, and that might allow them to give the Trojans a run for their money here this week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

Alex Smart

South Alabama has been downright explosive recently and are off back to back 55 point outputs in successive games , while averaging 617 yards and roll into this matchup against visiting Lafayette with massive momentum. Im not going to step in front of this freight train and will instead hitch a ride to what Im betting will be a win and cover for the home fav.

CFB home team vs. the money line (S ALABAMA) - a top caliber team (+14 or more PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, after scoring 50 points or more last game are 31-1 L/31 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +24.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this /ats offering.

CFB home team vs. the money line (S ALABAMA) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 25-4 L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (S ALABAMA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 50-6 L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a average ppg diff of +17.6 .

Play on S.Alabama to cover-10

[ConleyPicks]

ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven 1* NCAAF Free Pick
Free Play: Tennessee-175

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Vols look to bounce back after blowing a lead in the second half at Alabama. The Vols are 8-2 SU in the last 10 versus Kentucky, and 4-1 SU in their last five at Kentucky.

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Kentucky +4

I like the spot for the Kentucky Wildcats this week. They opened 5-0 but ran out of gas in their losses to Georgia and Missouri. Now they are coming off their bye week with a chance to reset, and I look for a big effort from them at home Saturday night against the Tennessee Vols.

This is a terrible spot for Tennessee. The Vols blew a 20-7 lead at Alabama last week and allowed the final 27 points in a 34-20 defeat. That was their 2nd SEC loss of the season and it all but eliminated them from SEC East contention. Kentucky did not respond well from its loss to Georgia, and I think we see a similar effort here from Tennessee following its loss to Alabama.

The Vols have played two true road games this season and are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS. They also lost 29-16 at Florida as 5-point favorites. Kentucky beat Florida 33-14 at home as 1-point favorites in a dominant effort, which came the game before Georgia.

Tennessee needs to be able to run the football to have success because QB Joe Milton just isn't a very accurate passer. The Vols average 217 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. Well, it will be rough sledding on the ground against Kentucky, which allows just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season. Kentucky's defensive strength cancels out Tennessee's offensive strength here.

The statistical profile of these teams is very similar this season. Kentucky outgains opponents 6.4 to 5.2 yards per play, or by an average of 1.2 yards per play. Tennessee outgains opponents 6.1 to 4.6 yards per play, or by 1.5 yards per play. So while the Vols have been slightly better, the spot more than cancels it out in favor of Kentucky off the bye. There's clearly value catching 4 points with the Wildcats at home here, especially in a night game where the crowd is going to be even more rowdy.

Each of the last three meetings between Kentucky and Tennessee in Lexington were decided by 4 points or less. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kentucky) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#162 ASA FREE PLAY ON Colorado State +15 vs. Air Force, 7:00 PM ET - We are on the home dog here with the Rams plus the points in this rivalry. The points are a premium here with the oddsmakers projecting around 46 total points being scored. Air Force has played three road games with wins at 0-8 Sam Houston State, at 3-5 San Jose State and 3-4 Navy. The Falcons have put up some impressive offensive numbers, but they’ve come against Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State who all rank 91st or worse in total defense and Wyoming who is 73rd. Granted, Colorado State is bad defensively, one of the worst in college football, but they have given up the majority of their yards via the pass at 308 passing yards per game allowed. The Rams actually allow just 3.9 yards per rush which is around the national average. Air Force relies heavily on their running game which is best in the nation in rushing yards per game at 306. Colorado State is coming off a close loss against an improved 6-1 UNLV team where they managed 5.8 yards per play while allowing 5.9YPP. The Falcons are coming off a game against the option Naval Academy and now must travel to CSU to face an entirely different offense. The Rams complete 63.7% of their pass attempts which is 37th best in college football and complete 28.6 pass attempts per game for 336.4YPG which is 6th most in CFB. Last year the Falcons were favored by 22-points at home and won by 12. They are clearly over-valued here so let’s grab the live home dog with backdoor ability.

[ConleyPicks]

Ray Monohan

Colorado State +14

There's a big football game happening this Saturday between two teams that are having different types of seasons: Air Force (7-0, 4-0 Mountain West, 3-3-1 ATS) and Colorado State (3-4, 1-2, 4-2 ATS). It's happening at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado, at 7 pm ET, and you can watch it on CBS Sports Network. In their last games, Air Force beat Navy 17-6, and Colorado State lost to UNLV 25-23.

The current betting odds are: Air Force is favored with -550 on the Moneyline, while Colorado State is the underdog with +400. If you want to bet on spread, Air Force is favored by -14 points. The total points expected in the game are set at 46.5 (O/U).

This rivalry goes back to 1957.

This is going to be such a slowly played game, grabbing the points is the smart move.

Neither offense is going to light up the scoreboard. They are both very one dimensional and will slow things down tremendously. The Falcons in particular are going to run their triple option set and really chew the clock like they have all season long.

Colorado State isn't overpowering any one either. This Falcons defense is tough to crack and the Rams aren't going to find themselves making big plays.

With neither side having an explosive playmaker, this should be a game where points are at a premium.

Looking at their history, Colorado State hasn't beaten Air Force since 2015. They've played each other 60 times, with Air Force winning most of the matchups. The overall series record is 38 wins for Air Force, 21 wins for Colorado State, and 1 tie.

Some trends to note, the Rams are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, are 4-0 ATS in their L4 games as a DOG, are 8-2 ATS in their L10 games, and they're 6-1 ATS in their L7 games against an opponent in the MWC.

Keep an eye on the weather, we could have some SNOW in the forecast. It'll be cold.

I'm backing the Rams on Saturday to keep this one within the number.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE CFB ATS Play

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the COLORADO BUFFALOES+17.5 -112 for our Saturday Free Play. Colorado has been a play against team for a while now but the value is back its way in an excellent spot. The Buffaloes went seven straight weeks without a bye and with their style of play, it started to catch up. That might have not been the whole story in their last game against Stanford, but blowing a 29-point halftime lead could have had fatigue being a part of it. They are coming off their bye week finally and come in more healthy and rested and catching too big of a number. Colorado has played the No. 30 ranked schedule and while its defense has been a liability, this offense is ranked No. 37 and can keep them close, especially with big numbers like this. UCLA is 5-2 following a big win over Stanford which came after those two losses in a three-game span. The Bruins preach balance on offense and that is the case this season as they are ranked in the top 50 in all stat categories while their defense is an underrated unit. The problem is that they have not faced any sort of offense in six of their seven games and seeing the one potent offense, Oregon St., they allowed their most yards and points on the season. Look for a closer than expected game than what this line is telling us. Play (173) Colorado Buffaloes

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on UCLA -17

The Colorado Buffaloes have been exposed as frauds in recent weeks after a surprising start to the season. The Buffaloes have gone 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are coming off an upset home loss to a terrible Stanford team. Now the Buffaloes face their toughest test since a 42-6 loss at Oregon. UCLA will put a similar beat down on Colorado. The Bruins just went on the road and beat Stanford 42-7 last week to give them a common opponent with Colorado, which lost 46-43 to Stanford. UCLA made the switch at QB to Ethan Garbers and he is much better than Dante Moore, and certainly makes fewer mistakes than the freshman was making. He is completing 67.4% of his passes compared to just 51.8% for Moore. He is also more of a threat to run the football. The Bruins are going to be able to run it at will on this soft Colorado defense that allows 474 yards per game and 6.2 per play this season. UCLA only allows 283 yards per game and 4.4 per play with one of the best defenses in the country. UCLA beat Colorado by 28 last season and by 24 the year prior and it should be more of the same here. Give me UCLA.

[ConleyPicks]

Rob Vinciletti

Huge Saturday card has the Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 in PAC 12 Action 2 more CFB Best Bets and our highest rated Canadian League play. There is also Game 2 of the World Series, NBA Opening week Power Systems NHL and Soccer. CFB comp play

The Comp play for Saturday is on Georgia Tech plus the 12 points at 8 eastern. This is more of a play against North Carolina here as the Heels are in a big let down spot following their loss to Virginia last week. Road favorites off a home favored loss last week as a 24+ point favorite which was their first loss of the season in week 8 or later have one cover the last 30+ Seasons vs a team off a loss. The Yellow Jackets have won 10 of 12 here at home against North Carolina. The Heels have failed to cover 4 of the last 5 as a road favorite. Look for GA. Tech to keep it close here. On Saturday Rob has a huge card up with 5 Top CFB Plays including the Mountain West conf. GOY and a big TER 1 PAC 12 Play. There is also our CFL iIghest rated play, NBA,NHL and Game 2 World Series Historical system plays. Jump on tonight as Rob stays hot. For the CFB Comp play. Take GA.Tech plus the 12 points. Rob V-

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Lundin

Mike Lundin's Rangers/Canucks Free Pick

Both teams are coming into this game on three-game winning streaks and with identical 5-2-0 records on the season. The Rangers are a solid 4-1-0 on the road, while the Canucks are undefeated in two home games, but I like the price we get on the Rangers in this matchup.

The Canucks will play their second game of a back-to-back situation, and they're in a potential flat spot after beating the Blues 5-0 last night. The Rangers have had a day off since their 3-0 win at Edmonton Thursday night.

The Rangers won both meetings last season. They are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against an opponent in the Pacific Division division and 18-4 SU in their last 22 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.

The Canucks are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games against an opponent in the Metropolitan Division division and 11-27 SU in their last 38 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.

2* FREE PICK ON NEW YORK RANGERS-146

[ConleyPicks]

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Kings-105 (NHL)

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Golden Knights+103

No analysis provided.

[ConleyPicks]

Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on CF Monterrey+155 (Soccer)