View Full Version : Saturday 11/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Can'tPickAWinner
11-13-2023, 11:45 PM
Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!
NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)
College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)
Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)
College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)
NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)
NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:29 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ded1118zf.pdf&exp=11/20/2023&pds=DED_-_11/18/2023&var=RACE_DATE=11/18/2023;TRACK_CODE=DED&SAP=FREEPICS)
Delta Downs - Race 2
Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Daily Double (Races 2-3)($1 min.) Superfecta (.10 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / Pick 4 (Races 2-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 5:34P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Stalker. OURPERFECTPRINCE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * OURPERFECTPRINCE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MR. CROMWELL: Horse ranks in t he top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MR. BUTCH WOMBLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7
OURPERFECTPRINCE
3/1
3/1
10
MR. CROMWELL
9/2
4/1
11
MR. BUTCH WOMBLE
9/2
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
9
FRIEND'S DO CARE
9
8/1
Front-runner
56
54
64.2
43.2
29.7
8
CATINANDSCATIN
8
12/1
Front-runner
63
54
41.2
43.0
30.5
4
MY MY LIMIT
4
6/1
Alternator/Front-runner
60
62
60.5
47.6
35.1
11
MR. BUTCH WOMBLE
11
9/2
Alternator/Front-runner
70
67
58.0
50.4
41.9
1
PROUDTOWN
1
5/1
Alternator/Front-runner
61
56
54.4
54.4
45.9
7
OURPERFECTPRINCE
7
3/1
Stalker
70
66
64.8
62.6
60.1
10
MR. CROMWELL
10
9/2
Alternator/Stalker
71
67
57.2
59.8
56.8
12
MULETRAIN
12
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
49
49
41.0
43.4
27.9
3
TOOCAN DANCE
3
6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
54
44
52.4
31.2
12.2
2
GONE SOLUTION
2
10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
56
43
44.2
30.6
10.1
5
SABERMAN
5
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
59
43
42.6
37.2
21.7
6
CARLOS'S MAMA
6
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
42
44
41.4
41.6
20.6
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:30 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=lrl1118zf.pdf&exp=11/20/2023&pds=LRL_-_11/18/2023&var=RACE_DATE=11/18/2023;TRACK_CODE=LRL&SAP=FREEPICS)
Laurel Park - Race 2
EXACTA &TRIFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 2-3) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)
SO $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 12:54
(RAIL AT 35 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500-10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 18 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THEMAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * JACKIE A: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. B ATTALION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ARTEMUS BRIDGE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. KING'S HONOR (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. COLBALOAF: Horse has the highest average Equ ibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
JACKIE A
15/1
6/1
12
BATTALION
9/5
7/1
16
ARTEMUS BRIDGE
4/1
7/1
10
KING'S HONOR (IRE)
2/1
7/1
5
COLBALOAF
9/2
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
10
KING'S HONOR (IRE)
10
2/1
Front-runner
92
90
95.8
78.2
71.2
1
ASSEMBLY POINT (BRZ)
1
7/2
Front-runner
91
80
90.1
63.5
43.5
3
MY BOY COLTON
3
10/1
Front-runner
82
73
72.3
74.5
51.5
5
COLBALOAF
5
9/2
Stalker
92
86
78.4
75.6
62.6
15
ON THE ENGINE
15
7/2
Stalker
82
74
70.6
72.8
50.8
12
BATTALION
12
9/5
Alternator/Stalker
90
86
92.4
84.2
72.2
13
UNLEVERAGED
13
50/1
Alternator/Stalker
90
82
79.8
74.4
55.4
4
JACKIE A
4
15/1
Trailer
93
81
71.4
80.7
72.2
16
ARTEMUS BRIDGE
16
4/1
Trailer
87
78
66.4
80.8
72.3
8
CRAZY KATER
8
15/1
Trailer
81
86
63.0
77.8
62.8
9
NOBLE CONQUEST
9
30/1
Trailer
85
79
61.2
73.4
51.9
14
FERMAT
14
30/1
Trailer
86
71
50.8
68.0
42.5
11
HE HATE ME
11
7/5
Trailer
84
88
45.5
70.2
58.7
2
FORMAL ORDER
2
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
89
77
77.2
82.8
65.8
7
THE LAST SCIP
7
8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72
67
75.4
74.2
54.2
6
ANTIPOISON
6
30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88
82
75.3
64.3
41.8
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:30 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=dmr1118zm.htm&exp=11/20/2023&pds=DMR_-_11/18/2023&var=RACE_DATE=11/18/2023;TRACK_CODE=DMR&SAP=FREEPICS)
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Del Mar - Race #6 - Post: 2:58pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 84
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#7 STOLEN TREASURE (ML=5/1)
#8 JARAMA (ML=8/5)
#2 STAY ON THE FENCE (ML=5/2)
STOLEN TREASURE - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. Rider hops back up on after getting to know the beautiful animal by riding last time out. That's always a big time angle. Finished fourth at Santa Anita last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 5/1 right here, he looks like a possible contender. JARAMA - You always have to be on the patrol for revenue generating jockey/handler tandems; we have one right here. This animal is uppermost in earnings per start. He looks solid in today's event. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed fig, 81, is tops in this bunch. STAY ON THE FENCE - Trainer Garcia moves this horse down the ladder based on class rating points to face weaker company. Look for a strong performance given this drop. Colt is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big performance today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 J DUTTON (ML=6/1), #5 THIRSTY THURSDAY (ML=8/1),
J DUTTON - Would have to get much more than the morning line odds of 6/1 to play this horse. THIRSTY THURSDAY - Not probable that the speed fig he recorded on Nov 10th will hold up in this race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #7 STOLEN TREASURE on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,7,8] with [2,7,8] with [2,4,5,7,8] with [2,4,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:30 AM
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ls1118zz.htm&exp=11/20/2023&pds=LS_-_11/18/2023&var=RACE_DATE=11/18/2023;TRACK_CODE=LS&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Stakes - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 94
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, TEXAS CLASSIC JUVENILE S. - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE AND RAN IN THE 2023 TEXAS CLASSIC FUTURITY TRIALS. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. ELIGIBILITY: A HORSE THAT RAN IN THE 2023 TEXAS CLASSIC FUTURITY TRIALS AND DID NOT QUALIFY FOR THE FINAL WILL REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE TEXAS CLASSIC JUVENILE STAKES. PREFERENCE TO THE FASTEST
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 1 FLYIN RABBIT 123 2/1
# 5 JONEZS 15/1
# 10 CANT PASS THIS ONE 9/2
FLYIN RABBIT 123 has a solid shot to take this race. Has been racing admirably and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. He has been running admirably and the Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this group of horses. The speed rating of 88 from his last contest looks respectable in here. JONEZS - Has to be used in the exotic offerings.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:30 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=cd1118zm.htm&exp=11/20/2023&pds=CD_-_11/18/2023&var=RACE_DATE=11/18/2023;TRACK_CODE=CD&SAP=FREEPICS)
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Churchill Downs - Race #8 - Post: 4:33pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $54,000 Class Rating: 86
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#4 CONCEPT (ML=5/1)
#9 MAGNIFICENT MILE (ML=3/1)
#1 FAN THE FIRE (ML=5/2)
#10 LIBERTANGO (ML=10/1)
CONCEPT - I expect this horse to astonish some prognosticators in today's event. MAGNIFICENT MILE - This gelding is in nice physical condition. Finished second on October 20th. This horse has increased his Equibase speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is important to note. FAN THE FIRE - Trainer, Sharp, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. I like to play this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a solid effort within the last thirty days. Earnings per race is something that I think can be a very important selection factor. This thoroughbred is ranked numero uno in this bunch. Sharp adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a chance at a big improvement. 67-70-83 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this race. LIBERTANGO - Was in an Allowance race at Horseshoe Indianapolis last out. That race had a class figure of 99 and he is moving down right here. A certain solid contender. This one has increased his Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is important to note.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FOREVER COOL (ML=6/1), #3 LUPO'S LEGACY (ML=8/1),
FOREVER COOL - Would have to perk up off that seventh place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. LUPO'S LEGACY - Didn't land in the top three on Aug 20th at Ellis Park. Followed it up with another lackluster try. Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint contests in order to support him.
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MAGNIFICENT MILE - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this gelding's last one.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 CONCEPT is the play if we get odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:
[4,9] with [1,4,9,10] with [1,4,9,10] with [1,2,4,6,9,10] with [1,2,4,6,9,10] Total Cost: $72
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:30 AM
Handicapped by The Walker Group at AqueductPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=aqu1118zz.htm&exp=11/20/2023&pds=AQU_-_11/18/2023&var=RACE_DATE=11/18/2023;TRACK_CODE=AQU&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 90
KEY CENTS S. - FOR FILLIES TWO-YEARS-OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. NON-LASIX RACE PURSUANT TO 4043.2 E) LASIX NOT PERMITTED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION; $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT ORIGINALLY NOMINATED, A
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 6 SOLOSHOT 7/2
# 1 MY SHEA D LADY 5/1
# 3 CARA'S TIME 5/2
SOLOSHOT is my choice. She has put up decent numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group of animals. Looks competitive against this group and will probably be one of the front-runners. She has been running very well recently while recording solid Speed Figures. MY SHEA D LADY - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figs of this group. Has recorded formidable Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. CARA'S TIME - Should definitely be given consideration here if only for the solid speed figure earned in the last race. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the midpoint of the race.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:31 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse Racing
FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 3
$1.00 Daily Double (Races 3-4) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) .10 Cent Superfecta
Claiming $3,200 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 8:26P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200 PREFERENCE TO MULTIPLE WINNERS IN 2023.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FOLLOW THE SIGNS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TAPIT SAM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PACHI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. STOSH: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
10
FOLLOW THE SIGNS
3/1
4/1
7
TAPIT SAM
4/1
6/1
3
PACHI
7/2
8/1
4
STOSH
9/2
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
8
GREAT PLAINES
8
6/1
Front-runner
72
73
88.0
59.4
47.9
2
KANITHAPPEN
2
10/1
Front-runner
66
55
75.2
53.4
35.9
7
TAPIT SAM
7
4/1
Stalker
77
75
76.0
72.0
67.5
9
SIRCORRI
9
10/1
Stalker
79
61
52.6
56.6
46.6
4
STOSH
4
9/2
Alternator/Stalker
77
71
67.6
70.0
57.5
10
FOLLOW THE SIGNS
10
3/1
Alternator/Stalker
92
81
65.8
73.8
71.8
5
W W RUSSIAN GOLD
5
10/1
Trailer
76
63
45.2
60.8
47.3
3
PACHI
3
7/2
Alternator/Trailer
79
80
68.4
70.4
62.4
6
FLASHY RICHIE
6
8/1
Alternator/Trailer
75
72
36.8
61.0
50.5
1
TEA AFTER BALLET
1
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
77
63
31.4
54.0
36.5
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:31 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Woodbine - Race #7 - Post: 4:03pm - SO - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,500 Class Rating: 81
Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#5 ERASMO'S GIRL (ML=5/2)
#7 AMI'S LINK (ML=6/1)
#8 LIPLOCK (ML=10/1)
ERASMO'S GIRL - I like that most recent effort on October 28th at Woodbine where she ran second. AMI'S LINK - Chircop drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more information to think this one has a darn good chance at this level. Don't often see a beneficial ROI like +22. This jock/handler tandem has done well together over the last year. Chircop has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware of the longer priced half. Recent Equibase speed figs show dominant pattern of improvement. LIPLOCK - When Civaci and Barrow work together on animals the return on investment has been great at +999.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BLAZING SKY (ML=3/1), #6 SENSE YOU LEFT (ML=7/2), #4 ENDORPHIN RUSH (ML=8/1),
BLAZING SKY - I don't have a good sensation about this entrant in this race. SENSE YOU LEFT - In the last affair this steed finished tenth. Doesn't bode well for her chances this time. ENDORPHIN RUSH - Will be hard for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 ERASMO'S GIRL to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:31 AM
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
Del Mar - Race 2
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double 50 cent min. Rolling Pick Three 50 cent Early Pick 4 (Races 2-5) / $2 WPS Parlay
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 93 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 1:00P
DESI ARNAZ S. - FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION CLOSED THURSDAY NOVEMBER 9,2023 WITH 9 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $1,000 EACH BY CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES, CLOSED WITH 1 (HALONE) $1,500 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $60,000 TO THE WINNER, $20,000 TO SECOND, $12,000 TO THIRD, $6,000 TO FOURTH AND $2,000 TO FIFTH. WEIGHT 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES OF $60,000* ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER, 4 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, 6 LBS. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. TOTAL NON-CLAIMING EARNINGS WILL BE USED IN DETERMINING THE PREFERENCE OF HORSES ASSIGNED EQUAL WEIGHTS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER. *$60,000 TO THE WINNER.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ROYAL SLIPPER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ROYAL SLIPPER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest Track Master Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4
ROYAL SLIPPER
4/5
2/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
4
ROYAL SLIPPER
4
4/5
Front-runner
83
91
95.7
86.3
83.8
1
NOTHING LIKE YOU
1
5/2
Front-runner
84
84
67.5
66.5
61.5
2
TAMBO
2
7/2
Stalker
79
79
74.3
75.3
70.8
3
DON'T BRING CRAZY
3
12/1
Trailer
81
71
62.9
67.3
58.8
5
HALONE
5
6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
29.4
40.8
31.8
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:31 AM
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 80
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 8 CATO'S LADY 4/1
# 9 MAZI 8/1
# 4 WHATS UP SWEETS 2/1
I think CATO'S LADY is a very good choice. With a strong 75 speed rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this race. Has garnered reliable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. MAZI - Have to bet on this money-making jockey and conditioner tandem. She has earned competitive figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group of horses in this race. WHATS UP SWEETS - Broberg has this mare travelling well and is a very good pick based on the competitive speed figures garnered in route races lately. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me favor this mare.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:31 AM
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif
Golden Gate Fields - Race #8 - Post: 4:13pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 106 Oakland S.
Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#9 STAR RACER (ML=6/1)
#3 ALEXANDER'S DREAM (ML=8/1)
#1 LOVE CANDY (ML=12/1)
STAR RACER - Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this gelding as he always seems to run well after a layoff. I think Golden Gate Fields players know a good thing when they see the rider/conditioner tandem of Espinoza and Tekos. Their winning percent together has been positive. ALEXANDER'S DREAM - This gelding is very familiar with the winner's circle at Golden Gate Fields. I expect a repeat effort right here in this race. You have to bet this horse at a racetrack he likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race. Had a dominant closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar effort today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. LOVE CANDY - Multiple trips to the winner's circle over the surface right here at Golden Gate Fields. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 TOP HARBOR (ML=9/5), #7 UNRAPTURED (ML=4/1), #6 RAGER (ML=4/1),
TOP HARBOR - No speed in this race to help this sustainer's efforts. UNRAPTURED - No good fortune for this questionable contender in a short distance race over the last couple months tells me that this colt is in a formidable spot RAGER - Tough for this closer animal to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #9 STAR RACER to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
9 with [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
None
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:32 AM
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold RacewayAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 3 - Post: 1:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 68 - Purse:$4000 - HORSES WITH A TMR OF 68.50
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 3 LEGATO 5/2
# 4 ROGUE CHEDDAR 2/1
# 6 LATEST ATTRACTION 4/1
Look no further than LEGATO as the wager in this event. Had one of the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the group in his last race. A good idea to use in your bets. When starting from the 3 hole, a better than expected win percentage has resulted. ROGUE CHEDDAR - The wagering panel knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This harness racer will unlock our way to a nice score. This race horse looks tough considering the high class ratings. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. LATEST ATTRACTION - 66 percent of the time this trainer and horse partnership end up hitting the board. Big players in this race. He has respectable class figures, averaging 74. Should be considered for a bet in this one.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:32 AM
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century MileAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 1 - Post: 6:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 54 - Purse:$6800 - NW 2 RACES OR 10000 LIFETIME
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 9 MATTS GEM 2/1
# 3 ARTICIAN 5/2
# 8 LUMBER BARON 15/1
MATTS GEM will not be denied the score in this one. This standardbred looks very good. Check out the 71 avg TrackMaster SR. Has a very strong shot in this race, if he can perform to his back class. Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a solid 52 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major player. ARTICIAN - With a really strong 52 TrackMaster speed fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. This trainer, and the driver Campbell, go together like cookies and milk. Their results together are excellent. LUMBER BARON - The panel of smart guys has Hennessy on its list of drivers who are winning with a flourish lately. Last 30 days win statistic is stellar. Respectable driver-trainer, winning 21 percent of the time. Appears to be a magnificent play.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:32 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at North Side Downs
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 9
1
1
Q TS CHARLIE
7/2
Lynk, Adam - 13
514.56
7
7
EUCHRED
6/1
Walker, Walter G - 34
501.77
5
5
RUNAWAY MYSTERY
5/1
Leblanc, Harold J - 27
497.46
6
6
REVENANT
5/2
Mullins, Zachary D - 18
488.87
4
4
A BETTER MAN
9/2
Kennedy, John Gerard - 14
467.23
3
3
EASTCOAST INVADER
3/1
Sutherland, Monica - 20
463.98
2
2
KEEPEROFTHEREALM
4/1
Doucet, Redmond Kc - 17
462.04
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:32 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 4
3
3
HERRICKROOSEVELT N
7/2
Gray, Shawn T - 20
489.81
2
2
MENLO PARK
9/2
Cushing, Mitchell - 11
489.01
1
1
BUNGALOW BILL N
7/5
Randall, Jay - 17
487.49
7
7
EVERYTHING Z TAM
15/1
Devaux, Jim - 20
477.93
4
4
THISISHOWWEDOIT
8/1
Beckwith, Brett - 16
447.15
6
6
SQUADRON SEELSTER
6/1
Dobson, Billy - 14
430.94
5
5
JOVIAN
12/1
Long, Chris - 10
427.94
8
8
DRAWING DRAGONS
25/1
Sowers, Mcgwire - 6
413.77
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:32 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 12
1
1
BELLA BUTTON N
3/1
Noble, Dan - 16
523.59
7
7
SKYWAY KON MAN
9/2
Smith, Jeremy - 23
511.58
5
5
SHAKE IT MARY
7/1
Smith, Tyler - 12
510.63
6
6
MAGICAL MUSCLE MAN
5/2
Miller, Brett - 13
499.00
3
3
MASCULINE HILL
10/1
Hanners, Luke - 8
475.36
4
4
BEAST OF DELAWARE
10/1
Smith, Trevor - 6
461.37
2
2
KIWI PRES
7/1
Melloy, Pat Jr - 12
459.65
10
10
KENOGAMI COCO
15/1
Kauffman, Kayne - 7
457.56
8
8
ROBIN BANKS
15/1
Hanners, Austin - 6
453.53
9
9
DG'S CAVIAR
12/1
Widger, Sam - 11
368.77
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:33 AM
Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs
P#
PP
HORSE NAME
M/L
DRIVER - WIN%
POINTS
RACE 9
4
4
HALO ITS HEAVEN
6/1
Byron, Stephen R - 7
472.13
3
3
ESQUIRE
5/2
Kelly, Colin - 20
470.74
1
1
PRINCE OF SUSSEX
2/1
Henry, Travis J - 19
465.28
5
5
BASTIANO
3/1
Desroche, Ryan P - 8
434.81
6
6
PETRO ANGEL
10/1
Fillion, Samuel - 9
413.66
7
7
BEGUIN DUGOUTIER F
8/1
Lareau, Stephane - 0
412.78
2
2
RANGER ROB
4/1
Harris, J Bradley - 14
410.61
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:33 AM
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga HarnessAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.Race 4 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$9000 - $12,500 CLAIMING ALLOWANCE SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/chats.gif
# 1 BUNGALOW BILL N 7/5
# 3 HERRICKROOSEVELT N 7/2
# 2 MENLO PARK 9/2
BUNGALOW BILL N will have you running to the cashier's window in this event. His 81 average has this gelding among the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings for this race. Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a strong 78 speed rating. Major contender. More wins than you would expect have been earned by interesting entrants lining up behind the 1 position at Saratoga Harness. HERRICKROOSEVELT N - Can't pass over based on speed figures which have been outstanding (82 avg) lately. It's sometimes tricky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the best class figures of the field. MENLO PARK - Starters win from this position at Saratoga Harness with better than average regularity, suggesting this excellent wager. If performance in the last contest is any indication, this harness racer will have a very formidable shot for this one. High last race speed fig.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:34 AM
TALKING HORSES
AQUEDUCT
Saturday November 18, 2023
Andy Serling
Race 1 7 - 6 - 9 - 2
Race 2 2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 3 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4 4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 5 3 - 4 - 1 - 9
Race 6 4 - 11 - 3 - 10
Race 7 1 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8 9 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 9 2 - 6 - 4 - 11
Race 10 5 - 4 - 1 - 9
Sara Elbadwi
Race 1 9 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 2 4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 3 5 - 1A - 4 - 6
Race 4 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 5 8 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 6 9 - 7 - 11 - 4
Race 7 5 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 8 8 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 9 10 - 2 - 11 - 4
Race 10 9 - 4 - 5 - 2
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:35 AM
Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 18
by David Aragona
AQUEDUCT
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 7 - 9 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 1A - 7
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 4 - 10 - 11 - 5
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 8 - 9 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 6 - 4 - 11
Race 10: 8 - 4 - 9 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Dot’s Dollar (#5) is clearly the horse to beat he continues to slide down the class ladder. He was a voided claim last time after being involved in a spill, having to basically jump over a fallen horse in front of him. He was eased after that, so I won’t hold the result against him. However, there are still questions to be answered as his form was falling apart even prior to that race. Linda Rice is quick to cut ties with a horse who is very likely to get claimed in this spot. He’s dangerous, but is hard to trust at a short price. I’m less thrilled with Mr Phil (#4), could also attract support here as he makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. At least he took a step in the right direction last time, but he was easily beaten by a horse who was coming out of cheaper races. There’s other speed signed on, so he’s unlikely to get his preferred trip, especially given the presence of Chateau (#7), who is also now in the Rudy Rodriguez barn. I think there are a couple of interesting alternatives. My top pick is Pogi (#6), who makes his first start off the claim for Pat Reynolds. He had been in good form for his prior connections, running his only poor race when stretched out to two turns coming back on short rest. He was pretty game to contest the pace and continue battling on last time in a race that otherwise fell apart and went to closers. I also liked his previous dirt sprint back in August at Monmouth, where he was second to the classy Speaking. This apprentice has to work out a trip, but at least he’s drawn towards the outside.
Fair Value:
#6 POGI, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 5
I’m not strongly against Integration (#3), who has looked like a turf horse with serious talent through his first couple of starts. He drew away from the field with steady, powerful strides on debut, and was unfazed by the big step up in class in the Virginia Derby last time, overhauling heavy favorite Program Trading. A repeat of that performance, for which he earned a field-best 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure, makes him awfully tough to beat. Yet he does have to take his show on the road, and he’s returning from a minor layoff. Chad Brown has entered three alternatives, and they all have something to prove. The most intriguing of that trio might be Equitize (#4), who was visually impressive on debut at Tampa Bay Downs all the way back in March. He’s now trying a similar class hike to the one the favorite pulled off at Colonial, but he’s attempting to do it off an 8-month layoff. This $606k Tattersalls purchase has a regal pedigree, by Kingman out of a three-quarter sister to Arc de Triomphe winner Waldgeist. Brown is obviously expecting a big effort for him to place him so ambitiously, but I would still demand a bigger price than we’re likely to get. Classic Catch (#9) is a horse that I’ve been waiting to see get on the turf after he trained so well over the grass this summer at Saratoga. He really doesn’t have an abundance of turf pedigree, but Todd Pletcher has been anxious to get him on this surface. He fits here from a class standpoint, but it’s still a tall order to try a new surface in such an ambitious spot. If I’m going to take a shot against the favorite, I want to do it with a price, and Freedom Trail (#1) figures to offer some value at anything close to his 8-1 morning line. He was no match for the best 3-year-olds in the division earlier this year, but he’s been subtly improving through recent starts. He didn’t seem to appreciate a marathon distance over the Delaware turf two back, but he really appreciated cutting back and taking the blinkers off last time. He also may have appreciated a return to the Aqueduct turf course, where he had so much success in the fall of his 2-year-old season. He traveled much more kindly, while still in the bridle, in that last race, and really produced a nice kick once Jose Ortiz set him down in the stretch. He almost caught Exact Estimate, who returned to finish a good second against a tough field in the Artie Schiller last weekend. I like the rail draw, and he might fly under the radar for John Terranova.
Fair Value:
#1 FREEDOM TRAIL, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 6
It’s hard to know exactly how the public will approach this seemingly wide open N1X allowance event. Among those who figure to be short prices, the one that I don’t want is So High (#7), who towers over the field on speed figures. However, he earned those numbers in graded stakes races over marathon distances where he was able to use his early speed as a weapon. That same strategy isn’t going to work here going shorter, and he’s just not as effective coming from off the pace. I think the horse to beat is Barrage (#10), who held his own against some tough rivals in the Ashley T. Cole last time. He was never really in the hunt to win the race, but he was finishing with good interest in a race that was dominated by horses with forward position. He had only faced New York-breds prior to that, but he has steadily been improving under Ray Handal’s care, and will be tough here if able to repeat the 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned two back. I’m not sure what to do with Cyber Ninja (#11), who clearly has the most upside of the main contenders. This 3-year-old has been improving since getting back on turf in his last couple of starts. He just lacks any early speed, and Jose Ortiz rides him in a way that requires the horse to make up a ton of ground in the stretch. He wasn’t able to do that last time against a tougher field going 1 3/8 miles, and I’m not confident that less distance necessarily benefits him. The good news is that he might get some more pace ahead of him. My top pick is Danzigwiththestars (#4). He’s obviously had plenty of chances at this level, but now he’s switching into the barn of Richard Dutrow, who has been a horseplayer’s friend since returning to training this year. This situation won’t last forever but his horses have been consistently running well and going off at overlaid prices in recent months. This horse hasn’t yet finished on the board this year, but he ran deceptively well on June 17 after a wide trip and then caught a tough field at Saratoga in August. He seemingly took a step backwards last time, but he got the wrong trip, always out of position in a race dominated up front. Now he picks up Irad Ortiz off the short layoff.
Fair Value:
#4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 7
I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches Cara’s Time (#3), who stands out on speed figures after finishing first and second in her last two attempts at this New York-bred stakes level. However, she’s gotten very favorable setups in both of those races, and now cuts back in a race that is likely to feature a much more taxing pace scenario. She also goes out for lower-profile connections, who don’t typically take this much money. I’m similarly skeptical of Soloshot (#6), who has enjoyed moderate paces in both of her wins, and now has to tangle with Cara’s Time on the front end. Among the likely speeds, I actually prefer Ashburn Alley (#7), who was heavily touted on debut and won despite failing to change leads in the stretch. She’s drawn well outside as she switches into the Tom Morley barn. Yet I think the horse that they all have to beat is Tricky Temper (#5). She ran deceptively well in the Matron two back behind Jody’s Pride, who returned to finish a strong second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Tricky Temper was pinned against the rail coming around the far turn that day, sustaining multiple bumps from a rival before kicking on late. She has the right running style for this race, and gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz. My top pick is My Shea D Lady (#1), who I’m hoping is just a better price. I think her chances of winning are similar to those of the Englehart runner, and her form is a little less obvious. She ran quite well on debut, closing past a few rivals before drawing away with authority. She was hardly disgraced when beaten by two talented rivals in the Seeking the Ante, and then might have been too aggressive with the blinkers added last time. She also may not have appreciated a sloppy track that day, just going up and down in the late stages. Now the blinkers come off, and she figures to rally from just off the pace under Jose Ortiz.
Fair Value:
#1 MY SHEA D LADY, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
The only horse in here with turf route experience is Positive Carry (#4), so I suppose she merits a long look on that basis alone. Yet I don’t love the race she participated in on debut at Saratoga, which just hasn’t produced runbacks suggesting it was as strong as it appeared at the time. She did have to alter course in the stretch of the Selima last time, but I still would have liked to see her finish off the race better. Between the Chad Brown duo, I prefer first time starter Spendalot (#8). This full-sister to multiple turf stakes winner Consumer Spending was training well in Saratoga and is one of many who has been entered for turf and scratched before. She picks up Irad for the debut and looks live. Though, these types do tend to get overbet for Chad Brown, as his ROI with debuting turf runners don’t justify the short prices they routinely go off at. Another first time starter with a great pedigree for turf is Spinning Class (#12), but she’s stuck in the far outside post position with an apprentice aboard. I could use her if she’s a big price. Many runners in this field are switching to turf for the first time. Magic Eight Ball (#5) doesn’t have much pedigree, but her connections have wanted to get her on grass, and she looks like one that should take to it in her replays. Yet I’m most interested in Bill Mott’s pair of fillies switching surfaces. Waskesiu (#9) has run fine on the dirt, but her pedigree does lean more towards grass. Her dam was a turf winner, and she’s a half-sister to turf stakes-placed Collective Force. American Pharoah is a solid turf sire, and she looks like a lot of his progeny that should have the versatility to transition to grass. Yet my top pick is the bigger price of the two Motts. Dancing Dean (#2) made her debut on dirt at Saratoga for Horacio De Paz and was never seriously involved. She lacked early speed and just stayed on at one pace. She now switches to Bill Mott, who obviously wants to get her on the turf. He even scratched her out off the turf race on multiple occasions this fall. The dam was more of a dirt horse, but she has produced two turf winners from three foals to try it, and the one who didn’t win on turf earned a career-best 92 Beyer on it. Watching her debut, she has a loping stride with a higher stepping action, suggesting that she’s a horse who will take to the grass. She also seems like a horse that really wants this distance, and she figures to get pace ahead of her.
Fair Value:
#2 DANCING DEAN, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 9
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Our Shot (#4), who has run well in all of his turf sprint efforts. He’s been in great form this season, winning a highly competitive allowance race at Saratoga this summer before just missing in the Harvey Pack. He then put in another strong effort in defeat last time at Keeneland, closing well behind Arzak in a fast race. He has the versatility to adapt to any kind of race flow, and he drew well in this large field. The only drawback is that his merits are so obvious and he’s likely to be a short price, especially with Irad Ortiz aboard. Thin White Duke (#11) finished just ahead of the favorite in the Harvey Pack, also beating eventual Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up Big Invasion. He is another who has been in fantastic form recently, appearing to thrive on a busy schedule since the summertime. He just didn’t draw as well and may have to overcome a wide trip from this post position. Nothing Better (#6) won this race last year and merits strong consideration once again. He was running some of the fastest speed figures in this field through the end of last season into the first half of 2023. He was just a little overmatched in the Grade 1 Jaipur and then was the victim of a torrid duel in the Wolf Hill at Monmouth. His last race was a step in the right direction, and he figures to get another aggressive ride here. Though there is other pace in the race, drawn on both sides of him. My top pick is Alogon (#2). He looks a little inconsistent at first glance, but he had a valid excuse in the Parx Dash, where he didn’t get a great trip over a turf course that some horses don’t appreciate. He bounced back in a big way in the Da Hoss, just barely losing to eventual Breeders’ Cup winner Nobals. He stayed in the Belmont Turf Sprint last time even when it was rained off the turf, and actually ran very well considering that he previously was unable to produce his best form on the dirt. That effort just confirms that he’s thriving right now, and he gets back into an ideal spot here. He drew a perfect post position and has the tactical speed to work out the right trip from just off the pace. I also don’t mind the rider upgrade to a local jockey in Manny Franco.
Fair Value:
#2 ALOGON, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 10
This finale looks totally wide open. I suppose She’s Awesome (#5) will be a clear favorite off her recent victory, since she’s at least coming off a victory on dirt in a race where a few others appear to be off their best form. Yet she’s first off the claim for Linda Rice in a complicated race, so I’m just concerned that she’s going to be an underlay as the obvious choice. Even though she’s not really a winning type, I actually think Icy Reply (#4) might be the horse to beat. She’s run plenty of competitive races at this level and appears to be back in top form after finishing second in each of her last two starts. She closed well two back on a day that was favoring speed, and last time she battled the superior Mursal all the way to the wire in a tougher spot than this. Proud Foot (#9) is just a trainer switch play, as she makes her first start off the claim for Richard Dutrow. She’s gone off form recently, but she was racing on a dead rail two back, so the outlook isn’t as dismal as it may seem. Yet this is a race where I want to do some price shopping for my top pick. Meraviglioso (#8) may get somewhat ignored after getting claimed by low-profile connections. Yet she’s run plenty of races this year that give her a real chance at this level. Most of those came prior to the summer, but she had excuses through the middle of the season. She caught a very tough field in an allowance race two back at Saratoga, and was glued to the rail in a race that featured more of an outside flow. I though she took a step in the right direction last time, and I like the confident move up in class for the new barn. She’s also shown the ability to rally from behind in a race that is almost assured to feature an honest pace.
Fair Value:
#8 MERAVIGLIOSO, at 7-1 or greater
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:36 AM
JOE KRISTUFEK
EXPERT SELECTIONS
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds and Twin Spires racing analyst Joe Kristufek began his career in his native Chicago, climbing the ladder at the local racing venues. The 1989 rivalry between Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence and his nemesis Easy Goer got Joe hooked on horse racing. A self-proclaimed 'horse racing ambassador', Joe's industry experience spans from Dubai to Hong Kong to more than 35 tracks across North America.
Saturday, November 18, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information, tune in to 'Churchill Downs Today' presented by twinspires.com one hour before first post every racing day, watch the pre-race paddock shows and follow Joe on Twitter @JoeyDaKRacing.
RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 7-6/1-4-3-2
7 TAP ANCHOR Wide trip may have cost him in narrow defeat in last
6 WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE 3rd in what turned out to be a tough maiden $30K claimer last out
1 PERSUADE Half to Edgemont Road could be a sneaky first timer
RACE 2
1:30 PM
Selections: 6-1-4/7-2
6 HOPE OVER FEAR On a roll of late; hopeful form converts to fast dirt
1 JUMP INTO THE FIRE Has wired tougher; can put them to sleep on the front end
4 KEEN CONTENDER Lost 22 in a row before winning last three
RACE 3
2:00 PM
Selections: 6-9-7-4
6 BARNABY Half to Big Bad Diva; solid works & logical placement
9 STUNNEM Good as any on paper, but won't offer much value
7 EXTRA HALO Cuts back turf to dirt; tactical speed
RACE 4
2:30 PM
Selections: 7-3-10-8-11/12-2-4
7 LAUGHINALLTHEWAY Breeder bought him back & gets aggressive on debut
3 LOBO SALVAJE Very respectable 3rd on debut; likely flies under the radar
10 DELTA DELTA Newly turned gelding drops in with blinkers on off the bench
RACE 5
3:01 PM
Selections: 8-2-/14
8 TALKIN' CASH Speed is well drawn vs. a field he should be able to handle
2 DOUBLE CLUTCH Trains well on dirt & may have found his niche sprinting
14 IMMORTALIZATION Returns from a long layoff; has run some decent races on dirt
RACE 6
3:31 PM
Selections: 7-1-2-4-5-6-3
7 PUCKERED Broke maiden in a public workout last out; claim earned class hike
1 ANNA'S WISH Won for fun with blinkers on, but takes them back off for this
2 ABOVE THE SUN Won quite nicely around two turns on dirt last out; others may have upside
RACE 7
4:01 PM
Selections: 12-10-9/2-5-3-1
12 HOPE MISSION Walsh lures Tyler to ride well-bred filly with forward works
10 TRIAL Works are better than they look; watch tote clues
9 FAMTOMAH Has displayed finishing punch in works; must respect the team
RACE 8
4:33 PM
Selections: 2/4-9-6/3
2 SHERIFF RONNIE Held his own against solid company in Maryland dirt sprints
4 CONCEPT Waiver claiming provision; Steve tabs Luis
9 MAGNIFICENT MILE Repeat of last two efforts would make him a contender here
RACE 9 — ABSTAIN (Joe has Johny's Fireball with Brilliant Racing)
5:05 PM
Selections:
RACE 10
5:35 PM
Selections: 2/4-9-6/3
RACE 11
6:05 PM
Selections: 2/4-9-6/3
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:38 AM
SCOTT SHAPIRO
EXPERT SELECTIONS
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Scott Shapiro is the Senior Racing Analyst for Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby. He fell in love with thoroughbred racing when his father took him to Garden State Park in 1985 to see Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck race in the Jersey Derby instead of the Preakness Stakes. Scott graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 1996 and is an avid NFL and PGA fan. His favorite horses are A.P. Indy, Fly So Free, Captain Bodgit, Victory Gallop, and Ghostzapper.
November 18, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information follow Scott on Twitter @ScottShap34.
RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 4-6-3-7-5
4 MR BIG STUFF Spotted realistically on debut; attracts Gaffalione
6 WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE Holds experience edge vs this group, but has lacked excuses thus far
3 PLEASANT DESTINY Debuts for barn that has won w/ 3 of last 9 at CD
RACE 2
1:30 PM
Selections: 2-6-1-4-7
2 LA TOURISTA Moves from low % barn to North America's all-time leading trainer
6 HOPE OVER FEAR Ships in from Mid-Atlantic in search of 4th consecutive win
1 JUMP INTO THE FIRE Has races that crush these, but drop in for $20K off bench concerns
RACE 3
2:00 PM
Selections: 8-9/7-1
8 GREAT RICHIE M Drops into MCL ranks for barn on a great roll in 2023
9 STUNNEM Moves up slightly in class in 1st start off claim for Cano
7 EXTRA HALO Cuts back & tries dirt for first time for Granitz
RACE 4
2:30 PM
Selections: 2-8-12-7-11-4
2 MY UNCLE FRANK Cuts back to sprint for initial time; gets favorable setup
8 CHITWOOD Was put away by 23-1 shot in last, but should get another favorable trip
12 PACIFIC STATES Shook off rust in last; benefits from move to outside post
RACE 5
3:01 PM
Selections: 8-14-9-4
8 TALKIN' CASH Was down on inside on 10/15 when outside was place to be
14 IMMORTALIZATION Draws in off AE list; makes 1st start since last September
9 ZARTOWNIS Moves back to dirt for 1st time since runner-up effort on 7/15
RACE 6
3:31 PM
Selections: 2-7-6-5-4
2 ABOVE THE SUN Ran down speed in maiden score; gets better setup today
7 PUCKERED Takes on winners for initial time in 1st try off claim for Joseph
6 ROCK STAR DOCTOR Attracts hot riding Saez in first start vs winners
RACE 7
4:01 PM
Selections: 10-2-3-5-9-12
10 TRIAL Out of strong female family; has been working great leading up to debut
2 HOW SOON IS NOW Got off to poor start & swung wide vs live MSW group on 9/27
3 BEDAZZLE 'EM Pricey daughter of American Pharoah makes 2nd start for Engler
RACE 8
4:33 PM
Selections: 4-9-10-6
4 CONCEPT Makes 1st start since mid-April; gate-to-wire under Saez
9 MAGNIFICENT MILE Has had tons of chances & lone victory came vs very soft bunch
10 LIBERTANGO Drops to lowest level of career; moves back to dirt for 'Cat Man'
RACE 9
5:05 PM
Selections: 2-6-13-5
2 JOHNY'S FIREBALL Has done little wrong since being claimed by Casse in June
6 STRONG QUALITY Has speed to control tempo & proven form over dirt in past
13 THE REDS Got beat a head by runner that came back to win nicely on Wed
RACE 10
5:35 PM
Selections: 9-3-7-1-6
9 HOT AND SULTRY Took on some of best in division before break; stalks & pounces
3 HIDDEN CONNECTION Merits favoritism based on class/recent efforts, but 0 for 7 in '23
7 FALCONET Toss last where she failed to get involved early; cuts back for TAP
RACE 11
6:05 PM
Selections: 11-2-7/6-8
11 SONHADOR Debuts for barn that has positive ROI w/ 2YO FTS MSW runners
2 THE J FACTOR Out of mare that earned $245K & won her first two starts
7 PRETTY SONG Has reportedly been working lights out leading into debut
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:39 AM
By Brad Free
BEST BET: Neon Lights (3rd race)
Del mar
First Race
1. Princess Midnight 2. Adelie 3. Inventing Anna
Three-time runner-up PRINCESS MIDNIGHT looks tough in this maiden-50 turf mile; both her starts since returning from a layoff were
strong. She finished behind a next-out winner over the Del Mar turf in her comeback, then did the dirty work setting the pace next out at
Santa Anita only to get nailed by a deep closer. In a field with less speed, 'MIDNIGHT can win with a front-running/pressing trip.
ADELIE is an 11-start maiden whose DMR maiden-claiming starts in summer produced a pair of closing thirds. Overmatched last out in a
maiden special-weight, ADELIE returns to maiden-claiming and will roll late under new rider Juan Hernandez. He and trainer Phil
D'Amato teamed to win 4 of their last 8 maiden turf routes. INVENTING ANNA makes her California debut while dropping into a
maiden-claiming race for the first time in her ninth start. The uncertainty is distance; two turns is a long way for the sprinter.
Second Race
1. Royal Slipper 2. Nothing Like You 3. Tambo
A dominating maiden by ROYAL SLIPPER at Keeneland, and sharp work over the DMR surface, stamps the second-start 2yo filly a
possible odds-on favorite in this sprint stakes. Full sibling to G1 winner Bast, ROYAL SLIPPER won her debut by nearly five lengths and
trained super since including a sharp five-furlong work here last weekend. Fast filly on her game, speed of the field, likely winner, low
odds. The improving NOTHING LIKE YOU shortens to seven furlongs off a maiden romp at a mile. Though she faced only four rivals,
the win was flattered when the two-three finishers won maiden races next out. 'LIKE YOU will roll late, a style that would only be
advantageous if the top choice gets unexpected pace pressure. TAMBO, runner-up in a similar sprint stake at SA, fired all three dirt starts.
Her numbers are creeping up, she finished more than three lengths clear of third last out. HALONE, maiden stablemate to NOTHING
LIKE YOU, was a late supplement. This seems an ambitious spot for a second-start maiden who lost her debut by more than 14 lengths,
but she did not have a fair shot after getting banged around and losing position at the start. Upset chance second time out.
Third Race
1. Neon Lights 2. Johnny Drama 3. Anniversaire d'Or
NEON LIGHTS stands out off a solid third in a similar maiden turf sprint during the DMR summer meet and runner-up finish last out in
which he was best. He was shuffled early, saved ground, was blocked into the lane, angled outside, finished fast and missed by only a
length. He would have won with a clean trip. He finished in front of four of his six rivals in this race, and gets a rider switch to Flavien
Prat. JOHNNY DRAMA merits an upset chance based on his better-than-looked tough-trip fifth on the DMR turf in summer and pacecompromised last-place finish his most recent start at SA. He pressed a blazing pace, the fractions took their toll on all the front-runners,
the race was dominated by closers. JOHNNY DRAMA looms an upset candidate; he could start at double digits even in this small field.
ANNIVERSAIRE D'OR is a well-bred first-time starter with a solid work pattern. Sired by Bolt d'Oro, his dam was a multiple turf stakes
winner who produced turf stakes winner Master Merion. PETCOFF will rally from behind, first-time Umberto Rispoli.
Fourth Race
1. Super Enticing 2. Asian Matriarch 3. She's My Niece
Fourth against winners last out, SUPER ENTICING returns to maiden-claiming and to the DMR track on which she finished a creditable
second in summer. Bred to run two turns, rider switch to Prat, likely winner if she can handle stablemate ASIAN MATRIARCH. The
latter was on her way to victory last out in a maiden-32, but she ducked out in the stretch and unseated her rider. 'MATRIARCH was
reclaimed by Peter Miller, she can stay two turns, and she ran well over the DMR track in summer. SHE'S MY NIECE, runner-up both
previous routes, drops in for a claim tag for the first time in the eighth start of her career.
Fifth Race
1. Kid Azteca 2. For A Laugh 3. Low Expectations
KID AZTECA is the fastest and best horse in this claiming turf mile for 3yos; the first-time gelding should be tough at a short price. He
ran okay while overmatched in a pair of graded races during the DMR summer meet, he was overmatched again last out in a N2X vs. older,
and now drops to age-restricted claiming. His speed figures tower over the field. FOR A LAUGH also drops, first-time claim tag, after
okay midpack N1X finishes in summer. He has no speed whatsoever, but will rally late. LOW EXPECTATIONS figures for a share off
his okay fourth two back on turf, while TOM AND JAZZY is speed, stretching out from sprints. He has an upset chance if he can avoid a
duel with front-runner MARKS HIP.
Sixth Race
1. Jarama 2. Billy Joe Shaver 3. Stay On the Fence
The runner-up debut by JARAMA was validated when winner Magic Spoon returned to win a stakes race. JARAMA pressed/set a fast
pace in his debut, put away his pace rivals, opened up and got collared. He ran a winning race. He can be long gone second out with a
front-running or pace-pressing trip. BILLY JOE SHAVER looms an upset candidate despite finishing last by more than 37 lengths in his
debut. He broke slow, raced greenly and was eased. But he worked fast since, looked good in a team gate drill Nov. 6 (viewed online), and
is likely to move forward second time out. STAY ON THE FENCE was in too tough vs. Cal-bred stakes rivals last out; he hit the board
his three previous starts in maiden races.
Seventh Race
1. Double Jab 2. Gypsy Tears 3. Book Smart
Lightly raced DOUBLE JAB gets the call in this Cal-bred turf sprint, his first since a dominating maiden win on this course in summer. He
won by more than three with a pressing trip, he figures for the same trip here. He was scheduled to run Sept. 30 in an allowance turf sprint
at Santa Anita, but the turf race was moved to dirt and he scratched. This is the first start in three months for 'JAB, who runs well fresh and
has upside in just the fourth start of his career. GYPSY TEARS missed by a neck last out to Grazed, who came right back to win a highly
N1X against open company (not restricted to Cal-breds). BOOK SMART would crush if this race was dirt. He trounced Cal-breds on the
main track six days ago with a career-high 94 Beyer. The challenge is to repeat the performance wheeling back in six days and switching
surfaces.
Eighth Race
1. The Chosen Vron 2. Big City Lights 3. Fast Draw Munnings
THE CHOSEN VRON returns to state-bred stakes after meeting his match in the Breeders' Cup Sprint two weeks ago. He finished fifth.
'VRON previously won eight consecutive stakes including this seven-furlong Cal-bred stakes a year ago. Unless he regresses wheeling
back on short notice, he should be tough. 'VRON must catch comeback stakes-winning speedster BIG CITY LIGHTS, who has trained
well for his first start since January. A front-runner who runs fresh (debut winner, comeback stakes winner in 2020), 'LIGHTS has more
tactical speed than the favorite and looms a potential upsetter. On the other hand, 'LIGHTS finished second to 'VRON all three times they
met. FAST DRAW MUNNINGS shortens in distance following a runner-up finish in a two-turn Cal-bred stakes at Los Alamitos. This
field has pace to flatter his closing kick; look for 'MUNNINGS late. NONE ABOVE THE LAW is a stakes winner on the DMR dirt; he
won a seven-furlong stakes for Cal-bred 3yos two summers ago. Flavien Prat worked 'LAW Sunday morning, and will ride him.
Ninth Race
1. Give Me the Lute 2. Hot Box 3. Silardi
Veteran stakes winner GIVE ME THE LUTE seeks his third straight turf-sprint claiming win after a pair of wins at SA. The 8-for-27
'LUTE has speed but also is effective from slightly off the pace. That could be the trip he gets in this speed-filled lineup. Trainer George
Papaprodromou is 10-for-19 with turf-sprint favorites the past five years according to Formulator, including both recent wins by 'LUTE.
HOT BOX has an upset chance first start since a pair of excusable fifths during the summer meet. He broke through the gate and was wide
Aug. 6; he was overmatched and had trouble Sept. 10. He drops to $25k claiming for his first start in two months, and should be a pace
factor. SILARDI returns from the East Coast in sharp form. A six-time winner, he wired a N1X turf sprint at DMR in autumn 2021 and
adds more speed to the field. WESTWARD LOOK dueled and cracked both recent starts, but now moves to an outside post with a rider
switch that suggests he might take back off the pace. PERFECTIONISTIC is rounding back into form and will be rolling late in a race
likely to unfold at a fast pace
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:40 AM
Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 18, 2023
Nov. 16, 2023
Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 18 | Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern
Chilukki Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile |Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward
The 5 to 2 morning line favorite is Hidden Connection (3) and the 7 to 2 second choice in starting odds is Hot and Sultry (9), and perhaps they will be lower odds than the other seven near post time, but NEITHER are standouts by any means and they might just be a bit vulnerable as favorites. Hidden Connection has NO WINS this year in seven races, and four second place finishes. I can understand why she might be the favorite, as she lost to recent Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Idiomatic in June, but she was fifth in that race and never threatened. She was second behind Search Results when last seen in September, here at Churchill Downs in the Locust Grove stakes, but the Search Results ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup. The last time Hidden Connection won a race was last December, and it was an allowance race at that. She certainly could be part of the exacta or trifecta but she’s not as probable a win contender as others.
Similarly, Hot and Sultry (9) has won just once in four races this year, and that win came at six furlongs. She was last seen finishing fourth in May behind Matareya, Wicked Halo (who won a stakes last weekend) and recent Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Goodnight Olive, but that’s hardly a reason she is a strong win contender here.
Instead, I’m starting with a horse who LOVES TO WIN, Oeuvre (4), who has won 13 of 16 races this year and last, on turf, on dirt, and at four different tracks. Her most recent effort was at a mile on turf around two-turns at Keeneland so this one turn mile on dirt is no problem, and she can win on the lead from the start or from off the pace. Trainer Block has an excellent record when switching surfaces, 20 for 71 over the lasts three years, and the 104 Equibase Speed Figure Oeuvre earned winning the last time she ran on dirt, in July, stacks up well with horses at lower odds than her 5 to 1 morning line. Jockey Loveberry has been aboard for six of her last eight wins, including three on dirt, and comparing her desire to win, and her physical condition, to many in here, Oeuvre has to be considered more strongly than many.
Nostalgic (1) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win. She won the Gazelle Stakes in New York in the spring of last year to qualify for the Kentucky Oaks but managed only a 10th place effort. She preceded to lose five in a row over the rest of 2022 but one of those efforts, in November of 2022, was notable as she missed by a neck in the Turnback the Alarm Stakes in a then career-best effort. Rested EIGHT months until this past July, Nostalgic missed by a neck with a career-best 104 Equibase speed Figure, then repeated that figure and won one month later, flattered by the runner-up winning her next start. That second effort also earned a 104 figure and it must be noted BOTH were at the same one mile trip as the Chilukki Stakes. Off the win, Nostalgic ran in the mile and one-eighth (two-turn) Beldame stakes, finishing third behind two horses at the top of the division. Winner Randomized finished second behind Idiomatic in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff two weeks ago and runner-up A Mo Reay was going to run in that race until an injury put her on the sidelines. Cutting back from two-turns to what appears to be her best distance, if Nostalgic repeats either of her efforts from July or August, she has a strong chance to win this race.
Another contender, but not as strong as the top two, is Falconet (7), who beat Hidden Connection in the Groupie Doll stakes at this distance in August, before a poor seventh of nine finish in the Locust Grove. The Groupie Doll effort came off a layoff similar to the one she’s returning from today, and she gets top jockey Saez riding for Pletcher. With nine first or second place finishes in 11 races excluding the Locust Grove, this filly may have what it takes to compete with her best effort.
Additionally, She Can’t Sing (5) can be used on some exacta tickets in the second position. She won this race last year at 7 to 2 odds when leading from start to finish. Two months prior she finished third on turf in a stakes and having been off three months following a fourth place effort on turf, her pattern is a bit similar, except it must be noted last year’s Chilukki field only had six horses and this has nine and that She Can’t Sing has failed to win, or to come close to winning, in five races since her victory one year ago.
Bets:
Win: Both Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) should be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exactas:
Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9)
Trifectas:
Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:40 AM
Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 18
Nov. 17, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 SIX FORTYFIVE
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 6-1 9 Six Fortyfive M Franco
PLACE 5-2 6 Big Prankster J Rosario
SHOW 5-1 5 Nano Man K Davis
WILD CARD 30-1 10 Bali Amour R Mitchell
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 V Lo J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 4 Elysian Meadows J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/9 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX
RACE #2 $75,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 KID BILLY
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 3-1 4 Kid Billy J Alvarado
PLACE 5-2 1 Engineer Empire M Franco
SHOW 2-1 2 Quick to Accuse K Carmouche
WILD CARD 12-1 7 Leo and Royal J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 6 Boys Code J A Davis
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 5 Supreme Being D Haddock
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #3 $25,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 5-1 1A Cajun Casanova I Castillo
PLACE 8-1 8 Mi Tres Por Ciento D Davis
SHOW 5-1 6 Pogi E Ruiz
WILD CARD 2-1 5 Dots Dollar J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 Horn of Plenty I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 4 Mr Phil J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
RACE #4 $100,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:19 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 NOTEBOOK STAKES
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 5-2 6 Works for Me I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 2-1 3 Aggelos the Great M Franco
SHOW 10-1 7 Perliano J Rosario
WILD CARD 12-1 1 Ice the Kicker J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Wine Responsibly J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Bonne Chance K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
COMMENTS: WORKS FOR ME ran the top last race speed figure with improved pace from start to finish. AGGELOS THE GREAT could benefit from cutting back in distance. PERLIANO ran faster fractions despite going a little longer in his last. ICE THE KICKER improved a ton in his second start and the same move forward today would be more than enough.
RACE #5 $250,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 HILL PRINCE STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 1-1 3 Integration K Carmouche
PLACE 6-1 8 Im Very Busy M Franco
SHOW 9-5 10 Crupi K Carmouche
WILD CARD 15-1 7 Quality Chic I Castillo
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 Classic Catch J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Faraday J Castellano
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/10 BOX, 7/8/10 BOX
COMMENTS: INTEGRATION is undefeated in two and has shown top level early and late pace. He will be really hard to beat when he puts them together. IM VERY BUSY is a closer with some strong works between races. CRUPI is the top pick if the race is moved off the grass. QUALITY CHIC is a longshot with a chance as he should be close to the front all the way around the track.
RACE #6 $90,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 9-2 4 Danzigwiththestars I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 5-1 7 So High J Castellano
SHOW 8-1 5 Harry Hood J Rosario
WILD CARD 20-1 12 Kingfish Stevens R Silvera
ALTERNATE 1 20-1 9 Front Man E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2 9-5 15 Leading Contender J Castellano
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 5/7/12 BOX
RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 KEY CENTS STAKES
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 4-1 7 Ashburn Alley J Castellano
PLACE 5-2 3 Caras Time D Davis
SHOW 12-1 2 Alleys Song J Rosario
WILD CARD 4-1 5 Tricky Temper I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 My Shea D Lady J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2 7-2 6 Soloshot M Franco
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
COMMENTS: ASHBURN ALLEY won her debut with ease on the front. CARAS TIME should be on the gas from go. ALLEYS SONG won his debut with a wide trip and any improvement should be enough. TRICKY TEMPER ran much better on dirt than turf in his last. Returning to dirt should help him.
RACE #8 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 6-1 9 Waskesiu J Alvarado
PLACE 4-1 4 Positive Carry M Franco
SHOW 6-1 1 Before You Go Go J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 7-2 8 Spendalot I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1 10-1 16 By the Glass J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 15 Wynning Touch J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 TURF SPRINT CHAMPIONSHIP
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 6-1 2 Alogon M Franco
PLACE 5-2 4 Our Shot I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 5-1 1 Wit J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 6-1 6 Nothing Better D Davis
ALTERNATE 1 9-5 15 Durante M Franco
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 16 Sheriff Bianco J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: ALOGON hit the board in seven of eight on grass. OUR SHOT is a consistent high end performer that ran much faster fractions last out. WIT should be fit in his third start after a layoff. NOTHING BETTER tends to run well fresh off the bench like today.
RACE #10 $55,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 SHES AWESOME
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 7-2 5 Shes Awesome J L Ortiz
PLACE 6-1 4 Icy Reply L R Rivera Jr.
SHOW 10-1 1 Boss Lady Kim M Franco
WILD CARD 15-1 11 My Girl Jal K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1 15-1 8 Meraviglioso R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 6 Shaman Princess J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/11 BOX
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:41 AM
Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 18
Nov. 17, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 WHOS SNOW TROUBLE
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 2-1 6 Whos Snow Trouble L Saez
PLACE 9-5 7 Tap Anchor K J Asmussen
SHOW 10-1 5 Flashover F Peterson
WILD CARD 7-2 4 Mr Big Stuff T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 Persuade A Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Pleasant Destiny D Cannon
* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #2 $20,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 JUMP INTO THE FIRE
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 5-2 1 Jump Into the Fire L Machado
PLACE 15-1 3 Miss Moon Pie A Achard
SHOW 3-1 6 Hope Over Fear T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 4-1 4 Keen Contender F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 Baby Gundin J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 5 Fireside Kitten E Morales
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 STUNNEM
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 7-2 9 Stunnem A Beschizza
PLACE 3-1 2 Bear River B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW 12-1 1 Quencio C J Hernandez
WILD CARD 10-1 7 Extra Halo G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1 9-2 4 All the Rage T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 11 Mirage F Geroux
* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 7-2 12 Pacific States B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 4-1 11 Solevo K J Asmussen
SHOW 8-1 10 Delta Delta J Elliott
WILD CARD 8-1 4 Silver Bull F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1 10-1 2 My Uncle Frank L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 8 Chitwood T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 12-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 10/11/12 BOX, 4/10/11 BOX
RACE #5 $127,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 8-5 15 Halmstad L Saez
PLACE 7-2 8 Talkin Cash T Gaffalione
SHOW 8-1 5 Straight and Level J Loveberry
WILD CARD 5-2 2 Double Clutch J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Cigarette Boat R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Town Barber A Achard
* EXACTA: 15-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/15 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #6 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 7-2 4 Cats Cave J Rocco Jr.
PLACE 4-1 5 Hush It Honey M Garcia
SHOW 3-1 7 Puckered T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 6-1 3 Bold Baby F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1 9-2 6 Rock Star Doctor L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Annas Wish E Morales
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 9-2 5 Beautiful Mischief L Saez
PLACE 7-2 3 Bedazzle Em L Machado
SHOW 8-1 12 Hope Mission T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 12-1 11 Wonder of You M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Lady Driller R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 10 Trial E Morales
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX, 12-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/12 BOX, 3/11/12 BOX
RACE #8 $30,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:33 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 3-1 9 Magnificent Mile E Esquivel
PLACE 5-2 1 Fan the Fire T Gaffalione
SHOW 5-1 4 Concept L Saez
WILD CARD 10-1 10 Libertango J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Forever Cool R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 7 Rewire R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX
RACE #9 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 5-2 6 Strong Quality F Geroux
PLACE 9-2 2 Johnys Fireball L Saez
SHOW 7-2 7 English Tavern C J Hernandez
WILD CARD 12-1 10 Good Governance J McKee
ALTERNATE 1 5-2 14 Brigadier General T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 5 Underdressed F Peterson
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX
RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:35 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 CHILUKKI STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 5-2 3 Hidden Connection T Gaffalione
PLACE 7-2 9 Hot and Sultry R Santana Jr.
SHOW 9-2 1 Nostalgic F Geroux
WILD CARD 4-1 7 Falconet L Saez
ALTERNATE 1 5-1 4 Oeuvre J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2 30-1 2 Raindrops On Roses J Talamo
* EXACTA: 3-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX
COMMENTS: HIDDEN CONNECTION ran the top last race speed figure and has a bunch of works since. HOT AND SULTRY has been off since May but has some of her best works getting prepped for today. NOSTALGIC probably has the most back class and should improve in the second up off the break. FALCONET has two wins and a third in three at the distance.
RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 3-1 6 Copperdrop R Santana Jr.
PLACE 10-1 1 All Out of Grace F Arrieta
SHOW 20-1 2 The J Factor J Loveberry
WILD CARD 7-2 8 Caberneigh T Canuto
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Velvet Kisses L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 7 Pretty Song M Garcia
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:41 AM
Del Mar Tip Sheet - November 18
Nov. 17, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 2-1 7 Princess Midnight K Frey
PLACE 4-1 6 Viewers Discretion U Rispoli
SHOW 3-1 2 Adelie J J Hernandez
WILD CARD 5-1 1 Happyasaclam D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1 10-1 4 Monique V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 5 Storming Gray E Payeras
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #2 $100,000 STAKES
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 DESI ARNAZ STAKES
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 4-5 4 Royal Slipper J R Velazquez
PLACE 7-2 2 Tambo A Fresu
SHOW 5-2 1 Nothing Like You J J Hernandez
WILD CARD 12-1 3 Dont Bring Crazy U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Halone F Prat
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
COMMENTS: ROYAL SLIPPER won her debut with ease with the top last race speed figure. TAMBO showed more stamina in her last and should be fit today. NOTHING LIKE YOU went wire to wire at a mile in her last and cutting back to 7 furlongs should help here. DONT BRING CRAZY will be closing and getting extra runway today could be a difference maker.
RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 NEON LIGHTS
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 9-5 6 Neon Lights F Prat
PLACE 4-1 7 Petcoff U Rispoli
SHOW 5-2 1 Vegas Burner J R Velazquez
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Johnny Drama A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Anniversaire dOr J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 3 Mobe Town T Baze
* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 SUPER ENTICING
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 6-5 2 Super Enticing F Prat
PLACE 4-1 1 Bossy Bruin Gal J Torrealba
SHOW 5-2 3 Asian Matriarch A Fresu
WILD CARD 7-2 5 Shes My Niece E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 High Flying Gracie A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $45,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 KID AZTECA
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 2-1 6 Kid Azteca J J Hernandez
PLACE 5-2 1 For A Laugh A Fresu
SHOW 5-2 5 Low Expectations M Gutierrez
WILD CARD 6-1 3 Marks Hip K Frey
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Syntactic U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Tom and Jazzy D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 8-5 8 Jarama R A Vazquez
PLACE 5-1 7 Stolen Treasure G Franco
SHOW 5-2 2 Stay On the Fence M Gutierrez
WILD CARD 8-1 5 Thirsty Thursday R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 J Dutton K Frey
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Bear Coast A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #7 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:28 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 5-2 8 Double Jab F Prat
PLACE 3-1 5 Book Smart E A Maldonado
SHOW 5-1 1 Gypsy Tears K Frey
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Geezer T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 9 Barely Funtional M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 6 Cribbage Board J J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:58 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 CARY GRANT STAKES
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 4-5 7 The Chosen Vron H I Berrios
PLACE 5-2 6 Big City Lights J J Hernandez
SHOW 12-1 8 Moose Mitchell M Gutierrez
WILD CARD 15-1 1 Principe Carlo K Frey
ALTERNATE 1 12-1 4 Lovesick Blues U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 2 Trip to Spain G Franco
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
COMMENTS: THE CHOSEN VRON ran the top last race speed figure and will likely be better in the second up. BIG CITY LIGHTS has three wins and three close seconds in six races. MOOSE MITCHELL ran faster times despite going a little longer in his last. PRINCIPE CARLO has some good workouts getting ready for his first race since late August.
RACE #9 $22,500 CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:28 PM ET
PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
WIN 4-1 6 Silardi U Rispoli
PLACE 5-1 2 Hot Box R A Vazquez
SHOW 5-2 4 Give Me the Lute J J Hernandez
WILD CARD 10-1 11 Code Charlie G Franco
ALTERNATE 1 5-1 7 Perfectionistic A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 Stormy Samurai A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/11 BOX
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:41 AM
Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Coastal Carolina -3 over Army
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:45 AM
Free play from Totals4UEarly Saturday Free Selection: Utah Utes/Arizona Wildcats under 45 1/2
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:45 AM
Free play from #1 SportsEarly Saturday's Free Play: Mississippi Rebels - 37 1/2
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:45 AM
Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Early Saturday College Football Selection From Lee
BYU +26
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:45 AM
Free play from Hawkeye SportsEarly Saturday's Free Pick: Wyoming Cowboys - 13
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:45 AM
Free play from The Last CallEarly Saturday's Free Play: (395) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns + 16 1/2
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:46 AM
Free play from High Stakes SyndicateFree Selection for Early Saturday: Liberty Flames - 27 1/2
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:46 AM
Free play from Tony SaccoTony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
GEORGIA STATE (NCAAF)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:46 AM
Free play from Tim DonaghyFree Play for Saturday is on the OKC/Golden State Over
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:46 AM
Free play from Jim FeistJim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, November 18, 2023
FREE
CFB
323. Duke -3 (12 PT / 3 ET)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:46 AM
Free play from Roz WinsROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2023
CFB
383. USC -5.5 (12:30 PT / 3:30 ET)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:46 AM
Free play from Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: the North Texas/Tulsa Game OVER 69.5 Points
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:47 AM
Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday :Take OKLAHOMA ST (CFB) -6 over Houston
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:47 AM
Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Saturday Free Play
Indiana -3' CFB
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:47 AM
Free play from Teyas SportsFREE PICK 11/18/23 CFB USC -5
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:47 AM
Free play from Kenny Towers
Your Free Pick for Saturday - Minnesota (NBA) -5.5
Played & Documented!
2023-24 Freeplay Record - 22-19-1
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:47 AM
Free play from Hollywood AnthonyYour Free Play from Hollywood
MLB Take CFB Oklahoma St -6
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:48 AM
Free play from Razor SharpYOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: EAST CAROLINA (CFB) +2.5 over Navy
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:48 AM
Free play from Atlantic SportsEarly Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Western Kentucky - 12 1/2
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:48 AM
Free play from Sharp BettorSharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2023
FREE
CFB
402. Iowa State +7.5 (5 PT / 8 ET)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:48 AM
Free play from Golden Dragon
Saturday Free Play
UCLA +5' CFB
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:48 AM
Free play from Arthur RalphFree play 1299-869 run SAT: Mississippi ST -10 CFB
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:48 AM
Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: RICE (CFB) -2.5 over Charlotte
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:49 AM
Free play from John Anthony SportsJohn Anthony's Free Selection for Saturday: Take the Nevada Wolf Pack (CBB)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:49 AM
Free play from Chris TudorSPORTS TUDOR'S FREEPLAY FOR SATURDAY!
NBA Minnesota/New Orleans OVER the total of 223 pts.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:49 AM
Hunter Price
1* Free Pick on Real Zaragoza+132 (Soccer)
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:49 AM
Mike Williams
1* on Seattle University+8.5
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:50 AM
Sal Michaels
Free Play on Evansville+1.5 -115
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:50 AM
Kenny Walker
Free Pick on Kent State+13
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:50 AM
Ray Monohan
OVER 47 Rice/Charlotte -111
Rice (4-6, 7-3 ATS, 1-3 on the road) faces Charlotte (3-7, 6-3 ATS, 1-4 at home) this Saturday at Jerry Richardson Stadium for an AAC Conference football showdown in Week 12. This game happens in Charlotte, NC, at Jerry Richardson Stadium, and it kicks off at 2:00 PM ET, airing on ESPN+. These two school's are 2-2 L4 since 2015. The last matchup was on 10/29/22, a 56-23 Charlotte win. The initial odds had the 49ers as slight underdogs (+2.5) against the Owls, with a total points line set at 47.5. The Moneyline shows Rice (-141) as favorites and Charlotte (+119) as the underdogs. The weather forecast indicates temperatures in the low 70s with possible winds reaching 12-15mph. In their previous games, the 49ers suffered a 44-38 defeat against the Memphis Tigers, while the Owls faced the UTSA Roadrunners, resulting in a 34-14 loss. We're on this Over here. Rice has been a sneaky good backing to the over this year. Coming into play, they have cashed in 8 of their 10 games to the over and they've done it with a balanced attack. They can wear teams down with their run game, but ability to be explosive with the pass game. This is a game where both teams should score a lot. Charlotte has seen their most recent games hit totals of 54, 59, and even 82 points. Look for plenty of shots down field and a lot of plays with big chunks. Some trends to note, the total has gone OVER in 6 of Rice's L9, and is 8-1 in Owls L9 as a favorite of 3.5-10, plus it's 7-1 in Owls L8 as a favorite, and finally, the OVER is 6-1 in Rice's L7 vs. a team with a losing record. I'm all over the OVER on Saturday. This should be a doozy! Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* FREE CFB O/U Play
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:52 AM
ProSportsPicks
PSP's Data Driven 1* NCAAF Free Pick.
Free Play: Arizona-115
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Arizona are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 conference. Arizona are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:53 AM
Jesse Schule
This is a free play on Northwestern-8.5 -110
I had Northwestern in their win over Dayton a few days ago, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Wildcats finished 2nd in the BIG10 last year, and they were 13-5 at home. Dayton finished second in the A-1O, and they were 5-6 on the road. The Flyers played on the road just twice in non-conference play last season, losing by a combined 36 points to UNLV and Virginia Tech. Northwesters is bringing back leading scorer Boo Buie, along with two more senior starters. Senior guard Ryan Langborg transferred from Princeton, giving them a starting lineup loaded with four seniors. They should have their way with an inferior Dayton team here in Evanston." The Rams have had a ton of turnover from last season, with all their starters moved on.
GL,
Jesse Schule
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:53 AM
Mike Lundin
Mike Lundin's Georgia/Tennesee CFB Free Pick
The No. 1 ranked Georiga Bulldogs (10-0 SU, 4-6 ATS) have won a school-record 27 consecutive games since the end of the 2021 campaign. They're a sizable road favorite at No. 18 Tennessee this week, but I think they'll win and cover the number.
The Volunteers were doing alright, but how can they bounce back from a 36-7 to then-No. 14 Missouri on the road last weekend? The Vols would've needed all the confidence they could get, and now instead they got the air punched out of them.
The Vols are averaging 32.0 points per game (39th), but they've mostly been running up the score against weak opponents. When facing other top teams, they've not been nearly as prolific. In their two games as underdogs this season, they lost 29-16 to Florida and 34-20 to Alabama.
I don't think they have what it takes to run with the Dawgs.
2* FREE PICK ON GEORGIA-9.5
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:55 AM
Dan Kaiser
North Carolina has a chance to win at least 9 games for the second straight season. North Carolina has won each of its last three games as a road underdog. North Carolina has covered the spread in each of its last four games as a road underdog. Clemson is looking for at least 7 wins for a 13th straight season. Clemson has won 3 straight home games. Clemson has won 27 of its last 28 games against conference opponents at Memorial Stadium. The Clemson Tigers have looked good in some games (ND) and then they look terrible in others. They have had an underachieving season and don't feel comfortable laying the points against this NC offense. Clemson is just 4-6 ATS on the year. North Carolina has covered 5 of its last 6 games as an underdog. Clemson is 2-5 ATS against UNC in 7 meetings.
Play on North Carolina+7.5 -109 This is a free-play
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:56 AM
Dave Price
Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Notre Dame -24.5
The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the benefit of getting a couple bye weeks here late in the season due to playing Navy in Ireland in Week 0. They had a bye after a 48-20 win over USC and came back to beat Pittsburgh 58-7 at home. They did lose at Clemson in their next game, but now have had a bye to regroup. I think we see a similar effort to that Pittsburgh game against a Wake Forest team that is pretty much on Pitt's level. After all, Wake Forest beat Pitt 21-17 at home which was their last victory. They are coming off a 26-6 home loss to NC State. The Demon Deacons are a tired team as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week, which is a massive disadvantage for them having to face Notre Dame off a bye. The Fighting Irish are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against ACC opponents. Take Notre Dame.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:56 AM
John Martin
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tennessee +10.5
Georgia is coming off a 52-17 win over Ole Miss as an 11.5-point favorite to cover the spread by 24.5 points. Tennessee is coming off a 36-7 loss at Missouri as 2-point favorites to fail covering the spread by 31 points. These extreme results for both teams has created some line value on Tennessee catching 10.5 points against Georgia this week. The Vols were clearly looking ahead to this game and not taking Missouri seriously. They will now treat this game as their national championship. Georgia already punched its ticket to the SEC Championship Game and won't be fully focused after how easy that win came against Ole Miss. We've seen South Carolina, Auburn and Missouri all stay within 10 points of Georgia this season and I think the Vols can do the same, especially playing at home here with home of the best home-field advantages in college football. The Vols are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, improving to 10-2 ATS at home over the last two seasons. Georgia is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Give me Tennessee.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:56 AM
Totals Guru
Free Total Annihilator On NC State vs Virginia Tech over 41 -108
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:57 AM
Info Plays
1* FREE INFO PLAY on Georgia/Tennessee Under 59.5
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:58 AM
Joseph D'Amico
Free Play:NC State Wolfpack+2.5 -105
Game 337.
12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.
My friends, the wrong team is favored here. NC State comes into this matchup rolling, as they have won and covered three consecutive outings. In those recent victories, their defense has been ferocious, allowing Clemson to score just 17, Miami to put up a mere six, and Wake Forest also to only account for six points. They will absolutely stifle the erratic V Tech offense. They make very few mistakes. Please remember, the Wolfpacks few losses this season, were to the Fighting Irish, the Cardinals, and the Blue Devils. Two of those three games could've gone either way. This is going to be a tight one. So, I will take the underdog. Take NC State. Thank you.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:58 AM
Matt Fargo
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS-6.5 for our Saturday Free Play. Oklahoma St. had its five-game winning streak snapped with a 42-point loss at UCF last week, getting gashed on the ground while committing four turnovers. The Cowboys are 5-2 and still right in the mix for a trip to the Big 12 Championship as they are in a four-way tie for second place but hold the tiebreaker over two of the other three teams. If Texas beats Iowa St. today, Oklahoma St. controls their own destiny by winning out and they will be in. They have relied on a strong running game that was suddenly shut down last week but will get back on track today. Houston lost against Cincinnati last week to fall to 4-6 so this is a big game for the Cougars as well as they need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. They are just 2-5 in the conference with the wins over West Virginia and Baylor coming by just three points combined. The win over West Virginia came on a hail mary as time expired and the win over Baylor came in overtime on a made two-point conversion so Houston could very well be 0-7 in the Big 12. The Cougars bring in a defense that is ranked No. 104 overall and No. 106 in scoring. Here, we play on road favorites rushing for 4.8 or more ypc and after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game going up against teams rushing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992. Play (403) Oklahoma St. Cowboys
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:58 AM
Rob Vinciletti
Loaded Saturday card has the BIG 12 Game of The Year, an Executive Level Tier 1, the ACC Game of the Month and 2 more CFB Best Bets. There is also our Exclusive early season NCAAB System plays and a TOP NBA Play. Comp play below
The Saturday comp play for is on Oregon-24.5 -105 at 4 eastern. The Ducks have the 2nd ranked offense in the country and they have covered the last 5 as a road favorite of more than 14 and they have revenge. Arizona St applies to the late season system below that plays against home dog off a road dog win at +3 or more vs an opponent off a conference win in games where the total is 66 or less.. The Sun Devils have failed to cover 5 of 6 in the first of back to back home games. They stunned UCLA as a 13 point dog on the road last week but will have a tough time keeping up with The Ducks here. Look for Oregon to pull way late. On Saturday Rob has a Huge Card up with his TIER 1 in BIG 10 Action, the BIG 12 Game of the Year from a 32-1 system, the ACC Game of the Month and more. In hoops Rob has a Top NBA Play and his early season College hoops System plays. Jump on now and cash out all day and night. For the CFB Comp play. Play on Oregon -24. Rob V-
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:59 AM
Dustin Hawkins
1 Dimer on IUPU Ft Wayne-3
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 11:59 AM
Bobby Conn
1* Free Play on Boston College-5
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:00 PM
Freddy Wills
Texas Tech -2.5 1.1% Free Play
UCF coming off a nice win over Oklahoma State as a 4.5 point dog at home, and have 2 winnable games to get their 6th win. Texas Tech in the same situation with Texas on deck this game is a must win. Tech has been a better home team most years, and this season hasn’t been different and they nearly upset Oregon earlier in the year. UCF has a top 25 offense, but they have faced only 2 teams in the top 80 in yards per play defense, lost both of those game. The average ypp defense of their other opponents rank 106.7th. Texas Tech ranks 48th in ypp, and they have gotten that ranking having faced 4 top 50 ypp offenses going 2-2 in those games. I think Tech back at home wins this game they have a huge edge on special teams ranking 8th vs. 103rd. Big 12 home teams have been very good this season especially against the new Big 12 teams of BYU, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati who are a combined 1-10 straight up in road games against original Big 12 teams.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:00 PM
Black Widow
1* Free Wiseguy Play on Boston College-5
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:00 PM
ASA
#387/388 ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 55 Points – California vs Stanford, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - 2 really bad defenses in this game lead to a high scoring affair. Cal’s defense ranks 118th in total defense and 130th in scoring defense allowing 37 PPG. They’ve allowed at least 34 points in 6 of their last 7 and over that stretch they are allowing an average of 45.5 PPG. Stanford’s defense ranks 131st in total defense and 129th in scoring defense allowing 36.9 PPG. They’ve allowed at least 40 points in 5 of their last 6 games and over that stretch they are allowing an average of 40 PPG. Cal’s offense can score averaging 32 PPG on the season. The only 2 times they’ve been held under 21 points in Pac 12 play was vs Utah & Oregon, the 2 best defenses in the conference. In their other 5 conference games they are averaging 37.5 PPG and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen in league play. Stanford’s offense has been up and down but they’ve shown they can score with 33 points vs Washington and 46 vs Colorado. Last week they had 17 vs Oregon State (they gave up 62) but the Cardinal had their chances but had 4 turnovers, 2 inside OSU territory, and were shut out on downs in OSU territory. That was vs a defense ranked in the top 40 and now they face one of the worst stop units in the country. The Golden Bears love to play up tempo ranking in the top 10 nationally in seconds per play. Stanford is middle of the pack in tempo so definitely not a slow paced team. Weather looks decent in Palo Alto at game time with a slight chance of rain but winds around 10 MPH which shouldn’t affect either offense. The projected final here is Cal 31, Stanford 24 and we like both teams to eclipse those totals. Over is the Play.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:01 PM
Alex Smart
The Kansas Jayhawks (7-3) play in-state rival K-State (7-3) on Saturday in another incarnation of the Sunflower Showdown.This has a high probability of being the most competitive Sunflower Showdown in the last 20 years as both sides according to my power rankings are evenly matched.
Leipold is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game in all games he has coached in his career.Leipold is 11-1 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play in all games he has coached Leipold is 8-0 ATS in home games after playing a game at home in all games he has coached since 1992.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 24-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kansas to cover
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:01 PM
Timothy Black
1* Best Bet on Rangers+1.5 -250
No analysis provided.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:01 PM
Rocky Atkinson
Rocketman Sports FREE NBA play Saturday 11-18-23
Minnesota @ New Orleans (7:10 PM EST)
Play On: Minnesota -5 1/2
The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans on Saturday night. Minnesota is 8-3 overall this year while New Orleans comes in with a 6-6 overall record on the season. Minnesota is 7-1 SU and 5-1 ATS so far this year in November. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS last 7 games when playing at New Orleans. My Rocketman line has Minnesota winning this one by 13 points. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:01 PM
Ricky Tran
Ricky's 1* play on ORGST-120
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- Oregon State are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
- Washington are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Oregon State.
- Washington are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:02 PM
Jack Jones
ack's Free Pick Saturday: South Carolina ML +105
South Carolina played the toughest schedule in the entire country during their 2-6 start to the season. They have finally gotten a break in the schedule with four straight winnable home games to close out the season and are taking advantage. After beating Jacksonville State 38-28, they came back and crushed Vanderbilt 47-6 last week.
The Gamecocks now sit at 4-6 on the season with their sights set on making a bowl game if they can beat Kentucky and Clemson at home to close. I like their chances of knocking off Kentucky, which played an extremely easy schedule to open the season during a 5-0 start. They have since stepped up in class and it hasn't been pretty.
The Wildcats are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against an injury-ravaged Mississippi State team. They lost 51-13 at Georgia, 38-21 at home to Missouri, 33-27 at home to Tennessee and 49-21 at home to Alabama. They won't have much left in the tank here after that physical game against Alabama last week.
The Wildcats sit at 6-4 on the season and already bowl eligible, so they don't have much left to play for the rest of the way. But this is definitely a sandwich spot as they are coming off the Alabama game with rival Louisville on deck next week. They will be much more motivated to beat Louisville next week to try and spoil what has been an incredible season to this point for the Cardinals.
South Carolina is 4-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming to Florida by 2 points. They are scoring 41.6 points per game, averaging 492 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play at home this season. Kentucky has been fortunate to play a home-heavy schedule with seven of their first 10 games at home. Two of their three road games were against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. This will easily be their second-toughest road test of the season behind that 36-point loss at Georgia.
South Carolina is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference opponent. Mark Stoops is 6-20 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in his last game as the coach of Kentucky. Bet South Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:02 PM
Jeff Alexander
7* NCAAF Nebraska/Wisconsin FREE PICK on Wisconsin -6
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:03 PM
Jeff Alexander
7* NCAAF Texas/Iowa State Free Pick
PLAY ON: Iowa State +7.5
I'll take my chances with Iowa State as a 7.5-point home dog against Texas. The Long Horns have been an overvalued commodity down the stretch. Texas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The only win coming against an awful BYU team. Last week they won by just 3 at TCU as a 13-point favorite. Their previous road game they won by only 7 as a 24-point favorite against Houston. Iowa State is not an easy place to play, especially in a night game. Cyclones are going to be extremely motivated in what figures to be their final shot against Texas in some time. I also feel the injury to starting running back Jonathan Brooks is a big deal against this ISU defense, which is much better at defending the pass. Cyclones hang around and maybe win this thing outright. Give me Iowa State +7.5!
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:03 PM
Jimmy Boyd
1* Free Pick on New Mexico State-6
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:03 PM
Kyle Hunter
*3 Star Free Play Over 48 SDSU/SJSU* San Jose State is quietly putting together a really nice offense. The Spartans are 13th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They are second in the Mountain West Conference in yards per play. San Jose State has scored 35 points or more in four straight contests. The Spartans are up against a San Diego State defense that is no longer good.
The Aztecs were a good defense for a long time, but this is a now a weak defense. San Diego State is 11th in the Mountain West in YPP allowed at a whopping 6.12 YPP allowed. The Aztecs have allowed 32 points or more in five of their last eight games.
San Diego State should be able to put up some points here against a San Jose State defensive line that isn't very good. They are 127th in defensive line yards. They are 101st in the nation in YPC allowed.
This total is a few points too low
Take the over.
ConleyPicks
11-18-2023, 12:03 PM
Cole Faxon
FREE PLAY on San Diego State/San Jose State under 50
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.