Monday 2/19/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis February 19, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card to begin the week. The 0.50 Pick 5 starts in Race 5 and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool.
The $1.00 Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Adam Twelve (8/5)-Per Engblom pupil has won 6 of 10 at YR. That record includes finishing 2nd in the last 2 starts versus age restricted Open company and Invitation horses. Comes back in sequence and this is a meaningful drop in class. Yannick Gingras should land on the point or possibly could come away in 2nd behind the rail horse Fearful Intent, who has missed a start. Either way the 4-year-old should have his way with this field.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

3-RJ Sports Image (6/5)-Left hard from the 8-hole last time, had a difficult opening quarter and that led to a poor 2nd half. Has raced well against some tough foes. Should relish the company and the post relief. Jason Bartlett could have the pedal down, land on the point and make every call a winning one.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

3-San Domino A (5/2)-The program shows road trouble in last, in general it wasn't a smooth trip. Had to work to drop into a hole, and that's not really road trouble but was blocked down the lane. May have won with a different trip but that's more opinion than fact. Lands in a spot to win tonight and Gingras should be able to work a smoother trip.
4-Just Enough Stuff (2-1)-Got on the engine in the first start since 1-29 but couldn't last and lost to the pocket horse. Comes right back and does face some veterans but looks like a main player at a short price.

Race 12 (10:40 PM EST)

1-Mach N Cheese (5-1)-Drew off in the 1st race for the Forte barn as Gingras provided an efficient trip. There have been issues as this will only be the 15th start in the past 2-years. Willing to use against better as this veteran has some back class. Should offer a solid price in what could be a chalky sequence. Could have more to offer and is in line for another cozy trip.
2-All Alone (9/5)-Some will single but at this level that isn't my choice. Will be a small price, and the best chance to win will probably be if Bartlett can get on the engine and wire the field. Will respect that outcome but not completely sold and will look at a couple of others with more value.
6-Splash Brothers (12-1)-Put in an even mile leaving from the same post versus a similar field last week in a needed start. The Schnittker-MacDonald combo has been cold and is due. Should offer a big price in the 2nd race since 11-28 and can be a threat with an aggressive steer.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2/3/3,4/1,2,6
Total Bet=$6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Oaklawn Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#4 Musical Maestro
Think he might be in a good spot to prompt the pace throughout, and he's capable of something better than he showed in his local debut last time out. Price should be more appealing.


#6 Simovic
He draws well to watch everything unfold while the pace players drawn further inside sort things out early, and he's got pretty reliable sprint form on his page.


#5 Miracle Worker
He was kind of flat last out when sent to post at 3/5 on the board, but he could find himself in a good spot to spy the speed if he can settle a bit more like he did in the debut run.


Race Summary
Musical Maestro wouldn't be far off of these if he could get back to the December run at Fair Grounds, and I'm hoping he'll be in a spot to get first jump turning for home.


Oaklawn Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Ninja Warrior
Not sure if he's quite good enough, but he has some upside after the no-show comeback effort, and he's in the mix early with these if he can break and find some of that pace from last year.


#4 C Z Rocket
He has done almost all of his work against better, and he may get a decent spying trip in a race without a ton of serious speed. Capable.


#8 Edge to Edge
That last one isn't representative of his overall form, and he has a lot of room to bounce back while facing this easier group. Tactical pace is tough with his best.


Race Summary
Ninja Warrior has flashed some pace in the past and finds a group without a huge amount of pace, and he almost has to come forward off the flat comeback run.


Oaklawn Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#9 Strike Ridge
Debuter finds a spot without a ton of serious form on paper, and the barn has done good work with limited starters in this kind of spot in the last year. Midrange price chance? Take a look on the track.


#12 Patton's Tizzy
He was far back off a runaway winner in the debut, but it doesn't look like he's going to catch anyone quite like that in this group. Any step forward makes him the one.


#2 Beraberabera
He's coming out of the same race as Patton's Tizzy, so the 15+ length margin maybe isn't quite as upsetting as it looks at first glance, and he got past a few horses that day. Blinkers go on, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him validate that last race with another small share.


Race Summary
Strike Ridge debuts for a team that has had some success with similar, so I'll take a look there and give him a chance at first asking. Otherwise I'm going to trust the Twenty to Park race from last month and guess those horses are going to flatter the race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Turf Paradise - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#5 HOLY ZAGS (2-1)
Evans acquisition should work out ideal trip in deep starter allowance field.


#4 IN THE RED (5-1)
Got first run in race dominated by deep closers, ran second, steps up in class.


#2 CLUBHOUSE SAINT (8-5)
Loves to win, as evidenced by her last three 1M starts at Turf Paradise.


Race Summary
The six fillies and mares in this one-mile starter allowance have combined for 47 wins and average earnings of $108,000. HOLY ZAGS is 3-for-10 at the distance, faced tougher rivals at Golden Gate and enters the track’s top barn. Bet to win and place.


Turf Paradise - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 NORTHERN COCKTAIL (3-1)
In top form, had excuses in last pair, can maximize his speed in here.


#5 OFF TO THE RACES (7-2)
Rough start, beaten favorite for twice this much at this distance.


#6 FED GRANT (5-2)
Freshened since busy schedule to start career for 25-percent layoff barn.


Race Summary
NORTHERN COCKTAIL posted his top two speed figures to begin his 4-year-old season. He held on for minor awards despite breaking awkwardly two back and drifting a bit on the turn last out. Bet to win and place and play 4-5 and 4-6 exactas.


Turf Paradise - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#2 CHIEFS BLANKET (7-2)
Hard used as beaten fave two back, chased sharp winner in latest.


#3 AVIATOR NATION (3-1)
Gets pace to rally into, alert start the key.


#1 STREETLIGHT PEOPLE (9-2)
New stablemate of ‘Chiefs’ worked in 1:00-4.5 over track.


Race Summary
CHIEFS BLANKET, a lightly-raced 5-year-old, ‘put forth a game effort’ after dueling as the odds-on favorite two starts ago at 7F, then chased the winning favorite through fast fractions and held third for $30,000 last out. Like his chances to graduate today, with plenty of one mile experience to summon. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=cmr0219zf.pdf&exp=02/21/2024&pds=CMR_-_02/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=CMR&SAP=FREEPICS)


Camarero - Race 2

Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3



Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 41 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 3:10P


FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 4 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 19 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. IMMACULATE SPIRIT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IMMACULATE SPIRIT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. JUST A FACTOR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BAY CHARM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in th e top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



3

IMMACULATE SPIRIT

3/1


5/2




5

JUST A FACTOR

4/1


7/2




2

BAY CHARM

2/1


6/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

IMMACULATE SPIRIT

3


3/1

Front-runner

45


45


43.0


36.4


34.4




5

JUST A FACTOR

5


4/1

Front-runner

39


36


39.8


33.4


28.9




2

BAY CHARM

2


2/1

Front-runner

35


29


34.8


28.9


20.9




4

BELLA SONG

4


15/1

Trailer

37


23


20.6


12.0


4.5




1

THIRSTY PRINCESS

1


5/1

Trailer

32


27


13.2


9.6


1.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=tup0219zf.pdf&exp=02/21/2024&pds=TUP_-_02/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=TUP&SAP=FREEPICS)


Turf Paradise - Race 5

$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 5-6) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)



Maiden Claiming $8,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 2:32P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. CHIEFS BLANKET is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHIEFS BLANKET: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



2

CHIEFS BLANKET

7/2


2/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

CLASS COMPOUNDS

5


12/1

Front-runner

61


52


73.5


48.7


35.2




7

NYQUILER

7


5/1

Alternator/Front-runner

71


75


80.6


55.9


48.4




8

YANKEE TEA PARTY

8


6/1

Alternator/Front-runner

78


75


78.7


10.4


0.0




2

CHIEFS BLANKET

2


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

82


65


92.2


84.1


80.1




3

AVIATOR NATION

3


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

84


67


52.4


58.1


50.1




6

PARS AND BIRDIES

6


8/1

Alternator/Trailer

71


59


61.6


54.0


47.5




1

STREETLIGHT PEOPLE

1


9/2

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


55.3


55.3


45.8




4

CHARLIE'S MAN

4


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

77


75


49.6


53.6


44.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ccp0219zz.htm&exp=02/21/2024&pds=CCP_-_02/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=CCP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $140000 Class Rating: 89

OP - R7 - FOR ARKANSAS BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 19, 2023 ALLOWED3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 ONE TEN STADIUM 6/5




# 2 BLAME J D 6/1




# 8 MACHO ROCCO 5/1




ONE TEN STADIUM looks to be a quite good contender. Moquett is trying to win with this one by bringing him back so quickly. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class numbers of this field. Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this racer a contender. BLAME J D - The speed rating of 86 from his last race looks formidable in here. MACHO ROCCO - He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Trainer has strong win rate (19 percent) at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=aqu0219zm.htm&exp=02/21/2024&pds=AQU_-_02/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=AQU&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Aqueduct - Race #1 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 AFILADA (ML=7/2)


AFILADA - When a racer drops at least 5 lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but could be helpful.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LA GROTTE (ML=1/1), #1 BRAVO REGINA (ML=9/2), #1A ARGENTINA GIRL (ML=9/2),

LA GROTTE - On a downward moving cycle. Speed ratings keep declining. Pedestrian speed rating last time around the track at Aqueduct at 7 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race. BRAVO REGINA - This thoroughbred likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually finish on top. Don't put in the top spot. May bounce off of that last strong exertion. ARGENTINA GIRL - You think this equine is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't win frequently.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 AFILADA is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with 2



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass