Thursday 2/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Fair Grounds - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 By the Sword
Get a look at him ahead of time on the track and tote, but he's really not meeting a great field in this first start, so he might be a good fit with realistic expectations.


#9 Gotta Keep Him
Wouldn't be any surprise to see him land this while trying claimers for the first time, and her last one really wasn't all bad when only two lengths off the winner at the post.


#3 Dream Cruise
Nothing much in the debut run with special weight company, but this easier spot gives him some extra upside while making his second career start.


Race Summary
By the Sword goes first time out in a soft spot for the local level, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him land this right out of the box. Gotta Keep Him is the clear one to beat.


Fair Grounds - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Cash Fever
His ability to rate just a touch should serve him well today in a spot with a few capable speed types, and he really hasn't done much wrong through three starts. In the mix again.


#5 Champlin
He's got a high ceiling if the debut run was any indication, but he might have a bit more engagement on the engine today than he did at first asking. Capable and talented.


#8 Camp Daddy
He would benefit if all the potential pace hooked up early on, as he owns pretty reliable finishing form that could put him on the scene late.


Race Summary
Cash Fever and Champlin look like the right ones in here, but I'm hoping 'Fever offers a mildly playable price if Champlin takes cash off the sharp debut score.


Fair Grounds - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#1 Dona Witch
She's probably supposed to have some upside while moving around two turns on the grass off the track-and-fade sprint debut at Turfway. Improvement expected.


#2 Liffey
Bit of a tough call depending on the price on the board, as he has been honest so far but tends to come alive too late. Another piece more likely today?


#6 Chasing Summer
She made her first start at Delta and presumably has some room to improve while moving to the turf second time out for a tough team. Player.


Race Summary
Dona Witch can come forward while getting a turf route for the first time, and she might have enough speed to find a good spot from the inside while stretching out.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 ISAYSO (4-1)
Could take some catching on class drop at inviting morning-line price.


#1 SMART JENNY (8-1)
Raced 4- to 6-wide when third to the favorite two back for $25k.


#7 GHOZ ON (7-2)
No threat against better in debut, gets in light-weighted.


Race Summary
ISAYSO has the best all-weather track sprint form and can make maximum use of her speed on the class drop. Zayas rides the recent four-time runner-up for the first time today. Bet to win and place and play a 5/1,7/ALL trifecta.


Gulfstream Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#2 GUAIO (4-1)
Gelded since runner-up debut finish six month ago, gets Gaffalione.


#3 CANAVERO (8-1)
Rough trip in rapid-paced second start at this level, enters new barn.


#5 CURLINS CRUZIN (2-1)
Wore blinkers, earned top speed figure in defeat in MSW sprint at Tampa.


Race Summary
GUAIO showed promise in his September debut, rallying for second behind Hermoso Hombre, who ran second in a $35,000 optional claiming race and third in a four-horse stakes race after that. He lures Gaffalione and wears blinkers as a first-time gelding in his 3-year-old debut. Bet to win and place.


Gulfstream Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#2 SANPIRODU (6-1)
Won in first route attempt, figures in the mix at this level in third start of cycle.


#3 ICE THE KICKER (5-2)
Repelled challenges on both sides, ran second to trip-sitting fave at distance.


#4 DESIGNATED HITTER (3-1)
Got focused with blinkers, drew off to win in 11-horse field.


Race Summary
SANPIRODU overcame a slow pace to break his maiden for $35k, then was no factor against better in two follow-up tries with Lasix. Encouraged by the 1:01 breeze over the track last Friday and Castellano’s return to ride. Bet to win and place.

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Equibase Special - Race 1

Win Wagering Only



Stakes • 1 3/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 104 • Purse: $1,500,000 • Post: 12:00


PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 FIELD AND MORNING LINE PRESENTED BY HORSE RACING N - GRADE 1 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. COLTS AND GELDINGS 126LBS. FILLIES 121LBS. TO PLACE A FUTURE WAGER IN POOL 1 ON THE 2024 PREAKNESS STAKES, PLEASE ASK FOR RACE 1. IF YOU WISH TO WAGER ON THE FIELD WHICH REPRESENTS ALL OTHER THREE-YEAR-OLD THOROUGHBREDS, ASK FOR NUMBER 40. NO REFUNDS WILL BE ISSUED IN ANY OF THE WAGERING POOLS FOR THE PREAKNESS STAKES FUTURE WAGER. ALL WAGERS ARE FINAL ONCE THE PATRON HAS LEFT THE WINDOW. THIS POOL WILL RUN THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 29TH - SATURDAY, MARCH 2ND. POOL 1 OPENS AT NOON THURSDAY,FEBRUARY 29TH AND CLOSES AT 8:00PMET ON SATURDAY, MARCH 2ND. THIS IS A WIN ONLY WAGER.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * NYSOS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at le ast 50. TRACK PHANTOM: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MUTH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ENDLESSLY: Horse's w in percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. DORNOCH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.



29

NYSOS

4/1


3/1




37

TRACK PHANTOM

40/1


8/1




25

MUTH

20/1


10/1




12

ENDLESSLY

60/1


10/1




10

DORNOCH

15/1


10/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




37

TRACK PHANTOM

37


40/1

Front-runner

100


96


98.2


95.6


66.1




34

SPEEDYNESS

34


50/1

Front-runner

90


95


96.4


92.5


26.0




10

DORNOCH

10


15/1

Front-runner

97


99


95.5


91.8


65.8




20

JUST A TOUCH

20


30/1

Front-runner

83


100


94.8


94.8


52.8




27

NASH

27


50/1

Front-runner

98


92


90.1


93.8


74.3




33

SPEAK EASY

33


50/1

Front-runner

89


92


87.2


87.2


45.7




39

VICTORY AVENUE

39


50/1

Front-runner

89


89


84.4


84.4


39.4




11

DRIP

11


60/1

Front-runner

83


86


81.5


81.5


20.0




5

CHANGE OF COMMAND

5


60/1

Front-runner

84


82


77.2


75.3


8.8




13

EPIC RIDE

13


60/1

Front-runner

92


97


75.8


89.1


37.6




24

MAYMUN

24


10/1

Front-runner

93


102


61.6


95.7


66.2




3

BORN NOBLE

3


50/1

Front-runner

85


80


54.0


75.8


13.8




19

INVEIGLED

19


50/1

Front-runner

92


72


53.3


74.3


11.3




14

FIERCENESS

14


25/1

Front-runner

102


100


50.0


88.6


78.1




17

HALL OF FAME

17


50/1

Stalker

88


88


102.3


87.5


44.0




21

KNIGHTSBRIDGE

21


30/1

Stalker

85


104


98.6


98.6


75.1




29

NYSOS

29


4/1

Stalker

99


110


92.0


109.0


100.0




25

MUTH

25


20/1

Stalker

103


98


91.8


95.6


80.1




26

MYSTIK DAN

26


40/1

Stalker

92


105


88.3


88.3


62.8




7

COMMON DEFENSE

7


60/1

Stalker

95


92


84.7


86.9


56.4




38

TUSCAN SKY

38


50/1

Stalker

90


98


84.4


93.9


62.4




35

STRONGHOLD

35


50/1

Stalker

96


91


82.8


85.4


32.4




30

RESILIENCE

30


50/1

Stalker

91


87


77.8


83.6


25.1




2

BOOK'EM DANNO

2


50/1

Stalker

96


95


63.5


92.9


61.4




28

NO MORE TIME

28


50/1

Stalker

88


91


60.7


81.1


23.6




36

TIMBERLAKE

36


20/1

Stalker

100


106


57.8


100.3


73.8




9

DOMESTIC PRODUCT

9


40/1

Stalker

90


90


52.9


82.8


36.3




16

HADES

16


50/1

Stalker

90


96


52.1


90.1


35.6




12

ENDLESSLY

12


60/1

Trailer

94


99


104.3


95.7


84.2




6

COACH PRIME

6


15/1

Trailer

92


93


95.1


89.4


43.9




22

LIBERAL ARTS

22


50/1

Trailer

96


94


83.1


87.7


36.2




4

CATCHING FREEDOM

4


50/1

Trailer

99


97


82.4


90.3


57.3




18

HONOR MARIE

18


30/1

Trailer

92


95


78.3


89.9


57.9




23

LOCKED

23


20/1

Trailer

104


99


78.2


99.6


85.1




31

SIERRA LEONE

31


15/1

Trailer

100


99


73.3


92.8


71.3




32

SNEAD

32


50/1

Trailer

92


96


69.4


87.7


31.7




1

AGATE ROAD

1


50/1

Trailer

93


83


50.9


75.9


24.4




8

CONQUEST WARRIOR

8


40/1

Trailer

89


80


42.7


71.1


9.1







































Unknown Running Style: FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (40/1) [Jockey: Unknown Jockey - Trainer: Yahagi Yoshito], ALL OTHER THREE YEAR OLD (6/1) [Jockey: Unknown Jockey - Trainer: Unknown Trainer].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for AqueductPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=aqu0229zf.pdf&exp=03/02/2024&pds=AQU_-_02/29/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/29/2024;TRACK_CODE=AQU&SAP=FREEPICS)


Aqueduct - Race 8

Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)



Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $72,000 • Post: 4:57P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2023 - 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * THANK YOU JON: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SAFALOW'S MISSION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LIGHT MAN: Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. DR. KRAFT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.



8

THANK YOU JON

6/1


9/2




2

SAFALOW'S MISSION

4/1


5/1




7

LIGHT MAN

3/1


8/1




9

DR. KRAFT

4/1


9/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

LIGHT MAN

7


3/1

Front-runner

86


85


80.6


80.6


73.1




3

MESSI THE MAGICIAN

3


15/1

Front-runner

78


78


69.8


69.8


52.3




8

THANK YOU JON

8


6/1

Alternator/Front-runner

88


86


101.4


86.0


78.0




2

SAFALOW'S MISSION

2


4/1

Stalker

92


86


75.8


89.6


84.6




1

PROVISION

1


20/1

Alternator/Stalker

86


76


66.2


71.8


58.8




4

DOC ADVANTAGE

4


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

87


79


46.2


73.2


62.2




5

CLEVER FOREVER

5


7/2

Trailer

82


79


83.1


76.0


67.5




6

NOBLE HUNTSMAN

6


15/1

Trailer

92


79


75.8


73.5


63.0




9

DR. KRAFT

9


4/1

Trailer

93


87


55.8


75.7


68.2

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles TownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=ct0229zz.htm&exp=03/02/2024&pds=CT_-_02/29/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/29/2024;TRACK_CODE=CT&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16600 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB. W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 CASTLE REVIEW 12/1




# 1 SUMMERTIME ROSE 5/2




# 2 PLANET FROLIC 9/5




CASTLE REVIEW has a quite good shot to take this race and could score at a price in here. Has been racing strongly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. She has been moving strongly recently while recording very strong speed figs. Entries trained by Shuler in dirt sprint races are normally solid. SUMMERTIME ROSE - She has been racing solidly recently while recording solid Equibase Speed Figs. Trainer boasts very strong win figures at this distance and surface. PLANET FROLIC - Win percentage one of the strongest in this field. Must be used in the exotic wagers.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=tup0229zm.htm&exp=03/02/2024&pds=TUP_-_02/29/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/29/2024;TRACK_CODE=TUP&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 2:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 PARS AND BIRDIES (ML=9/2)
#2 SEA BREEZE BOY (ML=7/2)


PARS AND BIRDIES - Rider hops right back atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last race out. That's always a great angle. The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. The February 19th event at Turf Paradise was at a class level of (85). Dropping to a lower class level drastically, so he should be in a good position to win. He'll be laying in the catbird's seat, right behind the leaders. SEA BREEZE BOY - After the race aboard this animal on Feb 5th, the jock is going to be in touch with the gelding much better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CHIEFS BLANKET (ML=1/1),

CHIEFS BLANKET - Just don't think he is worth the risk at the probable odds.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #3 PARS AND BIRDIES to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=sun0229zz.htm&exp=03/02/2024&pds=SUN_-_02/29/2024&var=RACE_DATE=02/29/2024;TRACK_CODE=SUN&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 83

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023 - 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




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https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 POOF HE'S GONE 3/1




# 4 HOLD ME ONLY 6/1




# 3 CERVEZA 4/1




POOF HE'S GONE is the most respectable bet in this race. Is a solid contender based on figures posted lately under today's conditions. Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the lead recently. Could beat this group of animals given the 66 speed fig recorded in his last outing. HOLD ME ONLY - His 67 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase Speed Figs in this event. CERVEZA - Is tough not to examine based on speed figures which have been quite good - 71 avg - of late. Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today.

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https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,800 Class Rating: 55

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 GHOST OF LONDYN (ML=6/1)
#2 DRILIN' FOR GEMS (ML=10/1)


GHOST OF LONDYN - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. DRILIN' FOR GEMS - With no past performances, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Radosevich has a +103 percent ROI clip with first-time-starters. I like this first time starter mainly because his workouts for this have been here at Mahoning Valley Race Course. Radosevich is giving this one Lasix for the first time. Nice move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 C V DYNAMIC (ML=5/2), #1 SWAYBACK MOBIL (ML=4/1), #4 CINSAULT (ML=9/2),

C V DYNAMIC - This gelding probably won't be really close at the wire. SWAYBACK MOBIL - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint events in order to back him. 4/1 odds isn't enough for this one when looking at the most recent outings. No speed in this event to help this come from behinder's dreams at winning. CINSAULT - No success for this vulnerable equine in a short distance contest over the last two months tells me that this colt is in a formidable spot






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #3 GHOST OF LONDYN to win if you can get at least 8/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass