Sunday 3/3/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis March 3, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 13-race card to finish the harness action for the weekend. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10 (8:00 PM PST)

7-Jack Rabbit Slims (2-1)-Money showed in the last start but being 11 lengths back into a 58.3 half is a difficult way to win. Came within a neck of a picture and will look for Luke Plano to start rolling sooner.
8-Louis (3-1)-This team Cutting entry has been the chalk in the last 4 starts but has only posted a single win. Raced well in last but got a bit leg weary late in the mile. Hasn't raced since 2-16 so the extra week off may help.

Race 11 (8:20 PM PST)

1-Anitas Red Rebel (5-1)-Seems to do good work on the point as the last 2 wins indicate. Has a good chance to get that trip with this post draw and should fit nicely.
2-Outlawburntpopcorn (4-1)-Drops to a better level for success and is another who should benefit from racing at the top of the stack. The 11-year-old should be in the hunt at the wire.

Race 12 (8:40 PM PST)

2-Sin Machqueen (8/5)-Beat a couple from this field on 2-23 and drew off by 4 lengths that night. Team Cutting entry is looking for its 3rd straight picture and will respect chances at a small price.
4-Captain Keen (7/2)-Raced well in last and kept coming off not the best of trips. Drops in for a tag and should be in the mix with a decent steer.

Race 13 (9:00 PM PST)

2-Dance Traveler (3-1)-Plano takes the lines and replaces Svendsen who picks #3. Has been a bridesmaid in the last 3 and maybe a new set of hands will make a winning difference.
4-Wits Beach (7/2)-Was used hard in last into a 55.4 opening half. That trip didn't end well but Cutting does stick. Will look for the beaten chalk to make amends.
7-Sherwood (9/2)-James Kennedy trains and will steer this veteran who has done good work at CalX (34-9-11-5). Stayed inside versus better and now drops to the level of its last win on 2-18. Will look for the 8-year-old to be near the top of the stack turning for the wire and should offer a square price.

0.20 Pick 4

7,8/1,2/2,4/2,4,7
Total Bet=$4.80

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/3/24 March 3, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Sunday, March 3, 2024

RACE 1

5-ASADA FRIES
Degree of confidence: C+

• Solid runner-up in Cal Cup Oaks; class drop to the first level.
• First time Lasix; retains Juan Hernandez; good tactical speed.
• Moderate figures but has produced a series of forward moves.

Others to consider: 4-Sushi Sticks; 8-Loretta Lynn.


RACE 2

6-TOP GUN TOMMY
Degree of confidence: B

• Claimed in his last six starts and now in the K. Mulhall stable.
• Perfect in three starts over the local track and is fast on figs.
• Employs an effective stalking style; should love this distance.

Others to consider: 5-Disco Ball.


RACE 3

6-DEN OF INIQUITY (GB)
Degree of confidence: B-

• Second in both starts since arriving from Ireland; ready to win.
• Both local outings earned better than par figures for the level.
• Good stalking style ensures a comfortable trip, no excuses today.

Others to consider: 1-Well Funded; 2-Kelly’s Out (Ire)


RACE 4

3-BENDITTIJOE
Degree of confidence: C+

• Important jockey change to Frankie; drops to his lowest level ever.
• Stretches out again to his best trip; recent figures point him out.
• Projects to enjoy a cozy second flight trip and have every chance.

Others to consider: 4-Tokamak.


RACE 5

5-CROSBY BEACH
Degree of confidence: B

• Returns to his claim level after a pair of solid outings facing tougher.
• Two time winner over the local lawn and picks up Frankie Dettori.
• Freshened for two months; shows a sharp recent half mile breeze.

Others to consider: 8-Truly Quality.


RACE 6

5-IMAGINATION
Degree of confidence: A-

• Career top effort when narrowly missing to top prospect Maymun.
• Cozy outside draw will allow him to secure a soft stalking position.
• Sharp six furlong breeze since raced, ready to step forward again.

Others to consider: none.


RACE 7 | $10K Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Begins Here

2-EASTER (FR)
Degree of confidence: A-

• Arguably the best middle distance older turf performer in the U.S.
• Seeks his fourth straight win and is perfect in two Santa Anita starts.
• Packs a wicked late kick; sharp works for first start since opening day.

Others to consider: 6-Du Jour.


RACE 8

2-HIGHLAND FALLS
Degree of confidence: B+

• Lightly raced Curlin colt is progressing with each start; gets a class test.
• Pedigree suggests he will love the classic mile and one-quarter distance.
• Effective stalking style; has speed figures that make him a major player.

Others to consider: 5-Newgate.


RACE 9

11-SUMMER LAKE
Degree of confidence: B-

• Easily handled state-bred competition over this course and distance.
• Tackling open company today but is nicely drawn on the far outside.
• Lightly raced mare has room for further improvement; retains A. Fresu.

Others to consider: 8-Don’ Ju Forget.


RACE 10

6-RUBY NELL
Degree of confidence: B+

• Respectable third in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Invitational.
• Tackling a bit easier today and is reunited with regular pilot Maldonado.
• Four time winner over the local lawn; three time winner at this trip.

Others to consider: 4-Bellabel (Ire); 11-Mouffy.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Siegel & Nicoletti: Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 Selections | 3/3 March 2, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Sunday’s Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 selections are in. The $1 minimum wager has a low 15% takeout and we’ve got the selections of veteran local handicappers Ron Nicoletti at GP and Jeff Siegel at SA.

Get 10X Wager Rewards Points when you bet the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Gulfstream Park Race 10
#4 Scramble (Best Bet, back-ups #10,#3)

Gulfstream Park Race 11
#12 Sassy Princess
#11 Grayosh
#8 Mama Bella

Santa Anita Race 7
#2 Easter
#6 Du Jour

Santa Anita Race 8
#2 Highland Falls
#5 Newgate

Santa Anita Race 10
#6 Ruby Nell
#4 Bellabel
#11 Mouffy

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Fair Grounds - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#1 Laughinalltheway
Think he's going to be a handful with this group, as he's got the positional pace to be right up on the splits early. He may still have some room to come forward after just three starts, too.


#2 Bright Spark
Main danger is a really good fit here, but he's going to give away tactical position to the top choice and will have to come get him late. In the mix in the stretch.


#5 Single Ruler
His better stuff puts him right in the frame today, but he has tables to turn after facing a couple of these last time out. Not impossible.


Race Summary
Laughinalltheway hasn't done much wrong through three starts, and he should be in line for another good go of things near the top. Lots to like.


Fair Grounds - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#6 Hayunevano
This is probably more to set her up for a longer trip next time out, but she has a little appeal at the sprint run in a race where she'll hopefully get an honest set of splits with a couple sharp forward players lined up. Fires fresh?


#2 Tipsy Tammy
She broke through with authority in that second start, and she was also 4/5 in the debut run, so there have been some expectations here. Can be tough on the front end if nobody presses her.


#3 Grand Love
She's another forward player who can get in the mix early, and she's multiple graded-stakes placed, so there is obviously some class to her that could work in her favor today.


Race Summary
Hayunevano has not been much for passing horses in her career, but she has generally been going longer and might be able to work out a midpack kind of spying trip today. Interesting enough at a midrange price.


Fair Grounds - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#10 Bind on Earth
Toss the stakes try last out and there are some compelling enough races on the page, and she might appreciate getting a long stretch to work with while trying to spy and rally.


#7 Bet on Bourbon
She comes out of the same spot as the top choice and also has bounce-back potential, and she's fast enough to get herself in the frame early with this group. Think she's one of the ones.


#6 Isolation
She might be the logical choice to get past them late while dropping in class for this, and she has typically been pretty reliable when racing for a similar price.


Race Summary
Bind on Earth might be an OK price in here with a handful of recent running lines on her page that fit pretty well. Thinking we'll see better today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=op0303zf.pdf&exp=03/05/2024&pds=OP_-_03/03/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/03/2024;TRACK_CODE=OP&SAP=FREEPICS)


Oaklawn Park - Race 1

Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 1-5)



Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 12:30


FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 3, 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 3, 2023 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. KOALA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CATCHUSIFYOUCAN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. AWESOME VIEW: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AUSTRIAN NAVY: Hors e has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. INVALUABLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KOALA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.



5

CATCHUSIFYOUCAN

2/1


7/1




6

AUSTRIAN NAVY

5/2


7/1




3

AWESOME VIEW

8/1


7/1




8

INVALUABLE

3/1


7/1




7

KOALA

20/1


7/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

KOALA

8


20/1

Front-runner

81


73


82.4


54.2


41.2




6

AUSTRIAN NAVY

7


5/2

Stalker

84


73


77.2


72.0


67.0




5

CATCHUSIFYOUCAN

5


2/1

Stalker

81


82


76.2


73.4


65.4




1A

MIA BABY

6


5/1

Stalker

86


71


68.6


71.0


62.5




3

AWESOME VIEW

2


8/1

Stalker

83


82


65.8


69.8


64.8




8

INVALUABLE

9


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

87


74


63.6


73.8


69.3




2

COST A FORTUNE

1


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

83


70


61.8


57.8


42.3




1

Z ZS RED

3


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

79


74


57.2


64.0


51.5




4

MISS WINDY SLEW

4


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

68


67


57.2


51.4


34.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ccp0303zf.pdf&exp=03/05/2024&pds=CCP_-_03/03/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/03/2024;TRACK_CODE=CCP&SAP=FREEPICS)


Cross Country Pick Four - Race 3

Leg C of the Cross Country Pick 5



Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 4:50P


OP - R7 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. ARKANSAS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HAPPY TEARS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KOMOREBINO OMOIDE (JPN): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



13

HAPPY TEARS

2/1


7/2




2

KOMOREBINO OMOIDE (JPN)

5/2


9/2




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

CLOUD WITHOUT REIN

4


12/1

Front-runner

84


77


78.2


59.4


49.9




12

LOOK SHARP

12


7/2

Front-runner

73


71


73.4


56.4


43.4




7

STREAKIN DEACON

7


20/1

Front-runner

0


0


65.6


50.9


30.9




11

KISSOFTHENILE

11


8/1

Alternator/Front-runner

79


63


70.8


58.6


42.1




2

KOMOREBINO OMOIDE (JPN)

2


5/2

Alternator/Front-runner

87


93


70.2


78.3


74.3




13

HAPPY TEARS

13


2/1

Alternator/Stalker

89


78


65.6


70.8


67.3




10

KINGMAKER

10


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

85


82


53.3


45.6


30.1




8

VIOLENT RIVER

8


4/1

Trailer

67


77


30.0


67.0


56.5




1

KANT CONQUER ME

1


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


59.0


37.4


16.9




3

SECRET HONOR

3


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

60


53


55.2


50.4


34.4




6

MILLCREEK ROAD

6


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


54.3


43.5


26.0




9

DAY JO

9


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


38.9


48.3


26.8




5

MO ANGELL

5


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

75


67


37.0


34.1


22.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race TrackPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=cmr0303zz.htm&exp=03/05/2024&pds=CMR_-_03/03/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/03/2024;TRACK_CODE=CMR&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 72

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 18 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 3 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 POWER OF NATURE 3/1




# 3 MOUSEFAST 2/1




# 4 CAMINANTE 9/2




POWER OF NATURE is the best bet in this race. Could provide positive profits based on respectable recent Speed Figures with an average of 72. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this colt a formidable shot. Posted a sound speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. MOUSEFAST - This gelding has been constatntly racing well in his latest outings. Has to be given a shot - I like the figs from the last affair. CAMINANTE - This colt obviously likes the distance, going 2 out of 7 in his races recently. Has very good early speed and will most likely fare solidly versus this group of animals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=fg0303zm.htm&exp=03/05/2024&pds=FG_-_03/03/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/03/2024;TRACK_CODE=FG&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Fair Grounds - Race #4 - Post: 2:15pm - Starter Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 LAUGHINALLTHEWAY (ML=7/2)


LAUGHINALLTHEWAY - This gelding is in fine form, having run a good race on Feb 8th, finishing third. This animal is tops in earnings per race. He looks nice in today's affair. The addition of blinks should keep his mind on business today. Recent speed ratings show dominant pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BRIGHT SPARK (ML=5/2), #5 SINGLE RULER (ML=7/2), #6 MIDNIGHT RAID (ML=4/1),

BRIGHT SPARK - Didn't show much run last out. Probably won't make a winning move today. SINGLE RULER - This entrant has been a bummer for the bettors as the favorite time and time again. MIDNIGHT RAID - This gelding recorded a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 LAUGHINALLTHEWAY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=lrl0303zm.htm&exp=03/05/2024&pds=LRL_-_03/03/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/03/2024;TRACK_CODE=LRL&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Laurel - Race #9 - Post: 4:23pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 NO MORE MASK (ML=5/1)
#1 ICE CUBE BABY (ML=3/1)


NO MORE MASK - As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this mare to be long gone. Is ranked number one in earnings per race. A dominant outing in this event can add to that bankroll. ICE CUBE BABY - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Bourne. This filly is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Filly is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a good performance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 UTTERLY ENCHANTING (ML=6/5), #6 LUCKY LORRAINE (ML=9/2),

UTTERLY ENCHANTING - I don't normally play a favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. LUCKY LORRAINE - This stretch-runner should have a rough go of it to get there in time with an absence of speed in this race. Not probable that the speed rating she registered on February 11th will be good enough in this affair.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ICE CUBE BABY - With the highest last speed rating of 69, this filly looks exceptional against these thoroughbreds.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 NO MORE MASK to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at AqueductPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=aqu0303zz.htm&exp=03/05/2024&pds=AQU_-_03/03/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/03/2024;TRACK_CODE=AQU&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $72000 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2023 - 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 9 BELLA PRINCIPESSA 10/1




# 6 KARA PARA 1/1




# 1 SAIL WITH THE WIND 3/1




I've got to go with BELLA PRINCIPESSA and is a quite good value bet given the line. Has run solidly when running a dirt route race. Is difficult not to examine given the company run in recently. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 68. KARA PARA - Ryerson has this filly running well and is a decent pick based on the solid speed figures posted in route races as of late. Always seems to be close up at the wire. SAIL WITH THE WIND - Shows sound speed figs on average overall when matched with the rest of this group. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly.