Tuesday 3/19/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mahoning Valley - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#5 Luvisanaki
She probably hits hard here while dropping back in with claiming company, and she should get a perfect tracking trip from the outside in this small bunch.


#4 Bulls N Berry
Nothing much through two starts, but she has been in with special weight groups in those tries, and she's not meeting a ton on paper today. Wouldn't be a surprise to see her wake up.


#1 Perfect Hour
Debuter comes in with some reasonable expectations at this level, and she won't have to be a star to land a piece of this at first asking. Check her out on the tote and track.


Race Summary
Luvisanaki probably gets bet a bit today, but she should trip out from this draw while meeting a very modest crew even for this level.


Mahoning Valley - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#5 Hot Princess
There might be a couple others who make a touch more sense, but I like the way the race should set up for her from just off the splits. In the mix.


#2 Kissing Medals
She was in too deep in stakes company last time out and gets back in with friends today, and I wonder if she'll carry her speed a bit better this time around. That said, I worry about the overall race shape.


#3 Wild Mariah
Same concerns here with her forward style, but her overall form makes her competitive overall with this group. The two-back winner was back to score again, so there are some things to like.


Race Summary
Hot Princess has been competitive with this kind in recent starts, and she might get a dreamy run of things while tracking a handful of forward players.


Mahoning Valley - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 You Bet a Fortune
He might be the best of the pace in a small group, which might allow him to shake off a couple potential prompting challenges. His only local try was sharp.


#5 Poker Partner
He's a logical alternative today in a spot where he draws well to force the issue, but he has had a little trouble with a couple of these in recent starts, so he's a question on relative class.


#1 Destino
He has really put things together in those last couple starts, and holding form out of that last race would probably keep him in the frame for a decent piece of this.


Race Summary
You Bet a Fortune should bounce back today while getting back around one turn after the three-turn run at Charles Town. Something like the two-back try should handle these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Turf Paradise - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#2 SEA BREEZE BOY (5-2)
Put away odds-on fave, ran second at 6-1/2F, duplicate makes him tough.


#7 WEDNESDAY AT SHADY (2-1)
Solid debut in Kentucky, claimed for $30k by Evans, gets Lasix.


#1 AS LUCK HAPPENS (4-1)
Chased pace in well-bet local debut, working well for new barn since then.


Race Summary
SEA BREEZE BOY outdueled the 1-to-9 favorite and shook clear for a mid-stretch lead, only to get caught by the trip-sitting winner. The half-mile split for the 6-1/2F race was 3/5 slower than an $8,500/nw4 sprint at 5-1/2F on the same card. Make him today’s Best Bet with a win and place wager.


Turf Paradise - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#2 BAYOU CHROME (7-2)
Solid numbers, raced evenly in fast-paced long sprint, drops off claim.


#6 BRANNIGAN (4-1)
Can’t seem to avoid trouble, as 18/0-5-6 record at one mile indicates.


#7 MOON TIME (5-2)
Win and a second in last three starts at distance, runs for cheapest tag yet.


Race Summary
BAYOU CHROME chased a fast pace, ran evenly in the stretch while the odds-on winner drifted wide, now runs for less that was he was claimed in his second start as a 4-year-old. He was no match for morning-line favorite MOON TIME on a muddy track at one mile but should offer enough value for a win and place bet and straight exactas 2-6 and 2-7.


Turf Paradise - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 CURLY ESA (5-1)
Pounced on dueling leaders to win off the claim, shortens up, taken to repeat.


#5 ECONOMICAL (3-1)
Gets class relief, holds tactical advantage, gets in light-weighted.


#3 MISCHIEVOUS HOLIDAY (10-1)
Hit board in 10 of 14 at distance, third start of cycle, switches riders.


Race Summary
CURLY ESA ended an 11-month winless and earned his top speed figure when he drew away to win at 6-1/2F last out. He is ideally spotted for a repeat try but will have to keep ECONOMICAL in his sights in a field that lacks speed. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sandy Ridge At The Red MilePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=srm0319zf.pdf&exp=03/21/2024&pds=SRM_-_03/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=SRM&SAP=FREEPICS)


Sandy Ridge At The Red Mile - Race 2

Win, Place, Show / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double



Maiden • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 80 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 2:00P


QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * THE RED EAGLE CREEK: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts).



4

THE RED EAGLE CREEK

6/1


4/1




5

JD HEZA PAINTEDEAGLE

3/1


8/1




2

WRS MYNAMEISRIP

8/1


8/1




3

PICKLED OATS

8/5


8/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

NYTE MOVES

6


15/1

Slow

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0







































Unknown Running Style: RR GOD AND COWBOYS (5/2) [Jockey: Rodriguez German - Trainer: Valdivia Samuel E], WRS MYNAMEISRIP (8/1) [Jockey: Aguilar Claudio Ponce - Trainer: Stroud Brian], PICKLED OATS (8/5) [Jockey: Candanosa Bryan - Trainer: Valdivia Sa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=prx0319zf.pdf&exp=03/21/2024&pds=PRX_-_03/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=PRX&SAP=FREEPICS)


Parx Racing - Race 5

Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta /10 cent Superfecta



Claiming $7,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 2:28P


(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. PACHELBEL is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PACHELBEL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HIDDEN CACHE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average E quibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



2

PACHELBEL

7/2


3/1




6

HIDDEN CACHE

4/1


3/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

BOHEMIA BABE

3


12/1

Front-runner

69


69


57.2


35.8


25.8




6

HIDDEN CACHE

6


4/1

Alternator/Front-runner

87


81


60.6


54.4


50.9




2

PACHELBEL

2


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

69


74


54.0


55.8


50.8




7

MY JO JO

7


3/1

Trailer

67


57


23.7


64.5


56.5




1

CLOUDY TIMES

1


5/2

Alternator/Non-contender

57


49


60.6


38.4


27.4




5

FOREST MAIDEN

5


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

72


59


56.8


45.0


37.0




4

DUNE JUMPER

4


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

58


56


46.8


47.8


37.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=prx0319zm.htm&exp=03/21/2024&pds=PRX_-_03/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=PRX&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Parx Racing - Race #8 - Post: 3:53pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 MARIA SAYS SO (ML=4/1)
#4 GYPSY WANDERER (ML=8/1)


MARIA SAYS SO - Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the power to make her presence felt. Krebs is giving this one Lasix for the 1st time. I think it's a good move. This one has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 40 to 47 to 56 in a row. GYPSY WANDERER - Arce has this filly signed up for the right affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BREEZY DANCE (ML=2/1), #6 NEXT GIRL (ML=3/1), #3 CORONA CAMPIONE (ML=5/1),

BREEZY DANCE - Feb 21st is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. She's almost certainly going to get baked on the front end. NEXT GIRL - Ran her best speed rating last time out, but the 'off conditions' may have had something to do with it. CORONA CAMPIONE - The pace scenario just isn't too promising for this front-runner. Many other horses would have to scratch to help her dreams at winning. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MARIA SAYS SO - Consider this. Finished fourth in the slop last time out. With better footing today, I'd expect a 25, possibly 30 percent improvement in class ability.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 MARIA SAYS SO to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf ParadisePURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=tup0319zz.htm&exp=03/21/2024&pds=TUP_-_03/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=TUP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 HIT THE SEAM (T) 10/1




# 3 PROJECT LEADER (T) 9/2




# 9 LAUNCHED (T) 6/1




I think HIT THE SEAM (T) is a respectable selection and could score at a price in here. Has been consistently running well as of late. Will make a strong performance versus this field. PROJECT LEADER (T) - Has some interesting angles which make this entrant a play. The extreme drop in class can only help this one today. LAUNCHED (T) - Had one of the most favorable speed figures of this group in his last race. Has run soundly when running a longer quarter horse race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=mvr0319zm.htm&exp=03/21/2024&pds=MVR_-_03/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=MVR&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,900 Class Rating: 57

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 SWEET BELEN (ML=3/1)


SWEET BELEN - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Trainer Sondej moves this one down the ladder based on class to face a weaker level today. Look for a strong race given this drop. This entrant ran outside the top 3 at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last out on a track listed as good. She should improve today without the off-track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CURT'S ANGEL (ML=6/5), #5 BIRDIE BLUE (ML=7/2), #3 MOON PARTY (ML=5/1),

CURT'S ANGEL - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last two months. Not the greatest of indicators. This mare hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of efforts. BIRDIE BLUE - More than enough efforts at Mahoning Valley Race Course with no sojourns to the victory stand. MOON PARTY - This entrant hasn't been near the winner at the finish lately.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #4 SWEET BELEN on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

None



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=wrd0319zz.htm&exp=03/21/2024&pds=WRD_-_03/19/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/19/2024;TRACK_CODE=WRD&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $75000 Class Rating: 85

WELDER S. - FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED THREE-YEAR-OLDS. NOMINATIONS CLOSED FRIDAY, MARCH 8, 2024 WITH TWENTY-THREE NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, OR BY SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION OF $750 EACH BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $250 WITH $75,000 GUARANTEED. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY USUAL TIME OF




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 CHASIN JASON 5/1




# 8 LEGACY ACCOUNT 8/1




# 7 NORWAY BEACH 8/1




I think CHASIN JASON is a decent choice. Has very good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. Has been racing admirably in races of this distance, going 1 for 1 under similar conditions. His earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone makes you take a look at him. LEGACY ACCOUNT - Win percentage one of the best in this field. NORWAY BEACH - Had one of the best Speed Figures of this group in his last race. Offolter and Mora have won 16 percent of their races giving this equine a very good chance.