Thursday 3/21/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Fair Grounds - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#6 Cocoa Icing
She had a lot of trouble along the way in that comeback run here last month, but she seemed to have a little interest in the latter half of that race and might have some room to come forward in the second start back. Solid lean at a midrange price.


#11 Generous Lover
She took to the turf nicely in that graduation run last time out, and she might have enough tactical pace to find a decent spot even from the high draw. Capable right back.


#4 Way to Be Marie
She has been pretty reliable on the turf and stacks up nicely enough with these, and I wonder if recent believers might get a slightly better price this time around.


Race Summary
Cocoa Icing had something more to offer than she showed in that running line on paper, and some reasonable upside in the second start off the bench puts her in the picture.


Fair Grounds - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Sultry Lass
Giving her a little price look after the flat stakes try in that first run on the turf -- I like that she's getting another chance on the surface in an easier spot, and she may be able to sit a touch closer early on today.


#2 Paint Me Perfect
She has been really honest here this season and scored at an overlaid 5.70-1 last out, and she seems competitive again today. Guessing she'll be on the scene late again today.


#1 Swoonatra
She has some pace to use from the fence, and the only other serious speed drawn in here is two spots deep on the also-eligibles, so she probably doesn't even go. Would want this one on the tickets as the controlling pace.


Race Summary
Sultry Lass might be a bit more tactical today after a hesitant break left her running from farther back that I would have expected. Worth another look while getting this kind.


Fair Grounds - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#12 Breaking Star
He tracked the pace and stayed on well enough late to hold for a distant and one-paced third. The guy who beat him that day was back to win, so maybe that line will translate well today.


#6 One More Sleep
Not totally sold that he wants the added ground today, but he's a reliable enough grinder to think he'll land another piece. One of the ones, but I wouldn't want too short a price.


#1 Last of the Past
He took a nice step forward in the first try around two turns, and another move in the right direction today would probably make him tough. Think he should be on the tickets you need to get home.


Race Summary
Breaking Star was in a good spot until late in that last one, and the winner of that race is probably a bit better than the $10,000 Louisiana-bred tag suggests.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 MI AMORE (7-2)
Hard-ridden to mid-turn lead, couldn’t fend off co-faves in longer route race.


#3 OUR MAGIC PRINCESS (10-1)
Useful debut at this level; dam was 18-34 and stakes-winning router.


#2 SPIRIT OF VICTORY (2-1)
Improved with Lasix and blinkers, stretches out on class drop.


Race Summary
MI AMORE got first run on a pair of 5-to-2 shots who finished first and second, but she showed some more staying power and held third on the class drop to this level. The rail draw is a plus for her third start with Lasix. Play a 1-2-3 exacta box.


Gulfstream Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 TAKE IT SOUTH (3-1)
Idle since fall, lone all-weather track try in MSW company fits at this level.


#1 LTE STARK WINTER (9-2)
Has shown some mild late interest in route races on this surface.


#4 SHOPPINGATBLOOMIES (2-1)
Led at stretch call in pair of longer races to begin 4yo season.


Race Summary
TAKE IT SOUTH, idle since a $16,000 claim nearly seven months ago, breezed in :59-3/5 over the all-weather track recently to gear up for her return. She was heavily bet off a similar layoff last fall but failed to menace. Bet to win and place.


Gulfstream Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#6 BORDER TOWN (5-2)
Hard-hitting turfer appears well-suited to 7-1/2F, won off similar rest in fall.


#1 MEHLEK (5-1)
Rallied to win on firm and soft footing in 2 of last 3 grass routes, gets pace to run at.


#4 ROUGH DRAFT (6-1)
Won 3 of last 8 on lawn, steps up for high-percentage claim barn.


Race Summary
BORDER TOWN benefited from a lively pace on a Woodbine course that favored closers when he last raced on the turf in October. But he finished powerfully in the 3-path to win going away at 6F and could sit a similar trip today as he takes aim at $300k in grass earnings. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=rp0321zf.pdf&exp=03/23/2024&pds=RP_-_03/21/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/21/2024;TRACK_CODE=RP&SAP=FREEPICS)


Remington Park - Race 10

WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)



Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 93 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 10:03


QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 21, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (HIGHEST LIFETIME EARNINGS PREFERRED).





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SAN LORENZO BLOOD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a po st position next to it gets out of the gate fast. DEZIGNER JEANZ: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. JESS FOLZOOKIEING: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



9

SAN LORENZO BLOOD

5/2


7/2




6

DEZIGNER JEANZ

3/1


9/2




5

JESS FOLZOOKIEING

5/1


9/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

WALLSTREET LASSIE

1


10/1

Fast

80


76


3.2


0.0


0.0




2

SILVER DAKOTA MOON

2


15/1

Average

80


78


4.5


0.0


0.0




3

LIPSTICK LOU

3


8/1

Average

85


81


4.4


0.0


0.0




4

MARGARET RIVER

4


15/1

Average

81


70


4.5


0.0


0.0




5

JESS FOLZOOKIEING

5


5/1

Fast

87


87


2.2


0.0


0.0




6

DEZIGNER JEANZ

6


3/1

Fast

95


94


1.5


0.0


0.0




7

JB KOOL LIGHTS

7


6/1

Fast

82


85


1.0


0.0


0.0




8

HAILEYS COMET

8


8/1

Slow

76


58


7.2


0.0


0.0




9

SAN LORENZO BLOOD

9


5/2

Fast

102


97


2.7


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles TownPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=ct0321zf.pdf&exp=03/23/2024&pds=CT_-_03/21/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/21/2024;TRACK_CODE=CT&SAP=FREEPICS)


Charles Town - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 2-3) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)



Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 7:30P


FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.





Contenders




Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. KING OF LUCK is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * REMYS GUNSMOKE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class R ating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. DE'S CASTLE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a spri nt and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ELEANORS JACK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



3

REMYS GUNSMOKE

5/2


4/1




2

DE'S CASTLE

2/1


4/1




1

ELEANORS JACK

8/5


6/1




































P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

DE'S CASTLE

2


2/1

Front-runner

74


66


62.8


66.2


62.7




1

ELEANORS JACK

1


8/5

Alternator/Front-runner

70


72


81.2


62.0


55.5




3

REMYS GUNSMOKE

3


5/2

Alternator/Front-runner

74


77


66.8


60.6


57.1




4

KING OF LUCK

4


10/1

Trailer

60


53


38.2


51.8


42.3




5

JOOBY DOOBY DOO

5


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

52


56


52.6


44.4


34.4




6

BEAR'S ESTATE

6


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


59


49.2


45.8


37.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=aqu0321zm.htm&exp=03/23/2024&pds=AQU_-_03/21/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/21/2024;TRACK_CODE=AQU&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Aqueduct - Race #4 - Post: 2:55pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 FLIP'S DREAM (ML=4/1)


FLIP'S DREAM - You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this rider/handler combination. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the power to make his presence felt. Forgive the off the board finish on the off track in the last race. On a fast track, has a good chance right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SAKA SHOCKA (ML=2/1), #6 CALL BOB (ML=5/2), #1 TWIRLING VINE (ML=4/1),

SAKA SHOCKA - Not the proper 'spot' in this clash. CALL BOB - When examining today's class rating, he will have to register a much better speed fig than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt route. TWIRLING VINE - The Equibase speed figs are going downward. I'm not playing this pony off of that trend. Unlikely that the speed figure he recorded on February 23rd will be good enough in this affair.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 FLIP'S DREAM is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with 2



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=op0321zz.htm&exp=03/23/2024&pds=OP_-_03/21/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/21/2024;TRACK_CODE=OP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $115000 Class Rating: 89

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 MOUNT CRAIG 9/5




# 6 RELAMPAGO VERDE 6/1




# 3 CROSSING 9/2




I've got to go with MOUNT CRAIG. He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the top in this group. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 87 - of his last outing. He has quite good class ratings, averaging 92, and has to be given consideration in this event. RELAMPAGO VERDE - Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. Has recorded solid Equibase speed figs in dirt route races in the past. CROSSING - Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 81 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the top in this field. Must be given a chance - I like the figures from the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway ParkPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50267&pfn=tp0321zz.htm&exp=03/23/2024&pds=TP_-_03/21/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/21/2024;TRACK_CODE=TP&SAP=FREEPICS)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $10,000 1 LB.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 ROYAL VICKY 9/2




# 2 P K WOOD 10/1




# 5 LIAM THE BRAVE 6/1




I have to consider ROYAL VICKY here. Reason to like this colt as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. LIAM THE BRAVE - Could provide positive profits based on respectable recent speed figures with an average of 78. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50292&pfn=pen0321zm.htm&exp=03/23/2024&pds=PEN_-_03/21/2024&var=RACE_DATE=03/21/2024;TRACK_CODE=PEN&SAP=FREEPICS)



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:29pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 MIGHTY MINION (ML=7/2)


MIGHTY MINION - Don't throw this horse out due to his last contest at Penn National where he finished sixth in the slop. Should improve this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BOSS HOLIDAY (ML=5/2), #3 CONNECTING (ML=4/1), #6 COWBOY JIM (ML=9/2),

BOSS HOLIDAY - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Tough to bet on him on the win end. Hard to back the favorite when he continues to lose as the favorite. CONNECTING - I can't play this repeated non-winner. Gets the assignment done now and then. Finished fourth in his most recent race with a common speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. COWBOY JIM - I find it hard to bet on any horse in a sprint race at 9/2 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last 60 days. Just cannot invest in this vulnerable equine. Didn't show me anything last time around the track or on Jan 29th.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #7 MIGHTY MINION on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass